Career Averages - Derrick Lewis
Career Averages - Alexander Volkov
Derrick Lewis - Fight History
AJ does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that Hokit will likely wrestle Derrick Lewis, but does not state a winner.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 44 of 62 | 70% | 46 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 8 of 43 | 18% | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 32 of 46 | 69% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 44 of 62 | 70% | 35 of 53 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 16 |
| Derrick Lewis | 8 of 43 | 18% | 6 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 12 of 16 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 32 of 46 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 15 |
| Derrick Lewis | 4 of 21 | 19% | 3 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-355), Lewis (+280)
Round 1
Faces are about to get punched by fists the size of lunchboxes. Heavyweights ready and willing to inflict some serious damage will trade bungalows, and only one man expects to be standing when it is all said and done. Cortes-Acosta (16-2, 9-2 UFC) has momentum behind him as well as a six-year age advantage, but he has to throw down with Lewis (29-12, 1 NC; 20-10 UFC). Whether Lewis will suffer another defeat against a tough talent or spring yet another brutal upset knockout, we will know in the next 15 minutes or fewer. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of the mighty swings about to come. There is no plan for a glove touch.
Lewis says hello with a jumping front kick, and Cortes-Acosta easily swats it out of the air. Lewis then kicks low, and the Dominican ignores it and slowly walks down his opponent before kicking him back. Cortes-Acosta jabs with the ball of his foot to the stomach, and he aims a jab to the same spot before leaning back to dodge a left hook. Lewis pitches a jumping head kick that bangs into the guard, and Cortes-Acosta looks surprised that the relative elder statesman and 264-pounder can get his leg up there repeatedly. Cortes-Acosta does not stick his face in the hornet’s nest, instead peeking out behind his jab occasionally. The lack of activity has made fans immediately restless, so Lewis calms them briefly with a failed head kick while touching Cortes-Acosta at the end of a reaching right hand.
There is a lull in the action as no one wants to commit, with Lewis always threatening that he is going to unleash something but pulling back more often than not. When Lewis does lunge forward, Cortes-Acosta bats him back with a counter as he stays in his preferred range chopping away at the front wheel. Cortes-Acosta fires off a one-two that grazes the side of the dome, and Lewis’ counter goes wide. Lewis lets rip a body kick, and Cortes-Acosta catches it and hangs onto it until Lewis flops to his back. Cortes-Acosta lords over him kicking the legs, and he hangs onto an ankle to punch the body a few times. Herzog tells him to choose whether he wants to let Lewis up, and he does. Lewis gingerly gets back to his feet, and walks right into a jab. Lewis lets fly a kick, and Cortes-Acosta slips when dodging it to bounce off the cage. Lewis lashes out with looping punches, and the younger man dodges and weaves away from every one. Cortes-Acosta’s jab ends the tepid round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Round 2
The heavyweights pick up where they left off, with Cortes-Acosta probing with jabs while Lewis tries high-amplitude, generally inaccurate offense. Lewis scores a body kick in the midst of a surge, but Cortes-Acosta is no worse for wear and keeps the jab right in Lewis’ face. Lewis walks face-first into a clean right hand that surprises him, and he lumbers forward to grab hold of his foe who is out of the way. Cortes-Acosta lets him bounce off the fencing so he can keep pecking at him, and he jams the front leg with a kick. Lewis wades forward with his hands down, taking the jab on the forehead so he can close in. He lobs a big left and a bigger right, but Cortes-Acosta is already two steps ahead of him. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with his jab, and he follows one with a right hand down the pipe. “Salsa Boy” keeps probing with his flustering jab, disrupting what Lewis has to offer before it gets thrown.
Cortes-Acosta walks Lewis down fearlessly, and he rolls with a looping left hook and puts his hand in the air to signal that he dodged it. Cortes-Acosta jabs the head and body, and he leans back to take the sting out of a Lewis overhand right.
When absorbing a jab, Lewis slips and feebly falls to his back. The frustrated Lewis turns to his knees under fire, seemingly out of the fight. Lewis turtles up as the Dominican pelts him with right hands, and Herzog urges Lewis to fight on but Lewis will not.
Punches continue to mount until Herzog waves the fight off, and the building does not respond positively to the stoppage or the victor.
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Derrick Lewis R2 3:14 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism, speed, and technical striking. He acknowledges Derrick Lewis's knockout power but believes Waldo's chin and volume will carry him. He notes Waldo was rocked in his last fight but trusts his durability. He says the odds are probably accurate but warns it's a Derrick Lewis fight where anything can happen.
Big Brady highlights Waldo's durability, noting he ate bombs from Pavlovich and smiled. He thinks Lewis is knockout-or-bust and Waldo is a much better minute-winner. He expects Waldo to cruise to a decision win, as Lewis likely can't knock him out.
Cody picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant due to the price tag. He notes Waldo's jab and footwork could give Lewis problems, but worries about Waldo's tendency to be hesitant against power punchers. Cody sees Waldo winning more often than not but prefers not to lay the heavy price.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis, relying on his proven ability to change a fight with one punch or a wild technique (e.g., flying knee). He argues that Waldo Cortes Acosta is not a consistent fighter and can be drawn into brawls, as seen against Ryan Spann. Connor also notes that Lewis has a history of winning fights he's losing (e.g., Volkov, Hunt) and that his dynamism is a constant threat. However, he admits Lewis's calm has eroded in recent years.
Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant. He notes that he has been wrong about Cortes-Acosta before, picking against him in his last two fights. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and get-up game, but believes Cortes-Acosta has momentum and is coming into his own. Vreeland warns that Lewis is always dangerous and that this is a tough fight to call.
James picks Cortes-Acosta via decision, citing his superior boxing and durability. He notes Lewis is on a downtrend, often quitting when tired, and that Cortes-Acosta is smart enough to avoid Lewis's power bursts. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential prop.
The host expects Cortes Acosta to use his pesky jab and body work to slow down Derrick Lewis, eventually leading to a TKO finish. He notes Cortes Acosta's improved chin and durability, believing he can eat Lewis's best shots. However, he hesitates to play the -350 line, suggesting the method of victory might be a better bet. He predicts the fight won't go to the scorecards.
Paul picks Derrick Lewis by KO, viewing it as a system play. He acknowledges Waldo is more likely to win but believes Lewis's power is a game-changer. Paul notes Lewis's age and cardio issues but says power is the last to go, and he likes the plus money on Lewis by KO.
The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his talented hands and recent activity. He believes Derrick Lewis's one-dimensional striking will be countered, and that Lewis will quit after getting cracked. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Zane leans toward Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his youth (34) and calm, consistent approach. He notes that Derrick Lewis has lost his composure in recent fights and tends to brawl recklessly, which plays into Waldo's patient counter-striking. However, Zane acknowledges that Lewis has dynamic fight-changing power and could land a lucky shot. He also mentions that Waldo is not a consistent finisher and could be outpointed if Lewis fights smart.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-270); Lewis (+225)
Round 1
So far this year, Brazilians in UFC headliners are 0-8 against foreign adversaries—and for the sake of this math, Mackenzie Dern, born in Arizona once sporting a Valley Girl accent, is considered an American. We won’t get into the muddiness of “but Merab Dvalishvili has his American citizenship so technically he’s an American male champ” because ain't nobody got time for that. These two heavyweights sure don’t. If this goes the distance, a lot of parlay anchors will bust. Lewis (28-12, 1 NC; 19-10 UFC) is hanging on to his all-time UFC knockout lead, and he can register one more at the expense of skyscraping Brazilian slugger Teixeira (8-0, 1-0 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog will receive the final assignment of the evening, and he brings the big fellas together to bump their equally big fists together. It’s on with the show.
Teixeira moves himself to the center of the cage, and he blocks a head kick. Teixeira catches him with a left hand directly on the eye socket, and Lewis clutches at it and appears compromised. He might be playing possum, as Lewis unleashes fury in the form of a swarm of looping punches.
Backing Teixeira off with a right, it is his nuclear left hand that sends the 6-foot-7 Brazilian flying down to the floor. “The Black Beast” pounces, delivering a punishing barrage of ground-and-pound that knocks Teixeira’s head around.
Teixeira manages to stand up under fire, although he places every finger in the fence to pull on it as hard as he can to do so. Herzog waves the fight off, and Teixeira pushes on Herzog’s face and is upset about the possibly early stoppage.
The victorious Houstonian takes his shorts off, as has become his trademark, and he throws them out into the crowd. He walks over to Teixeira’s empty corner and mimes himself marking his territory like a beast. He proceeds to remove his groin cup as well, pitching it deep into the audience as there is some fan that goes home with a sweaty, stinky souvenir. Ever the classy gentlemen, he drops trou and moons the crowd. He pulls them back up to march over to UFC chief Dana White, who hands him his cell phone—it is President Donald Trump on the other end. Lewis does not share which words were exchanged, but he does remark, “USA up in this hoe.” When commentator Daniel Cormier asks him what he wants next, Lewis deftly replies “my wife” and says she will be soon subjected to some heavy ground-and-pound. What a guy. When Lewis fights next, you best believe we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Tallison Teixeira R1 0:35 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira based on size and skill, but is very hesitant due to Teixeira's lack of experience (8 fights) and first main event. He thinks Teixeira is faster and can beat Lewis to the punch, but acknowledges Lewis has one-punch power and could freeze Teixeira. He will not bet on the fight.
Big Brady acknowledges Derrick Lewis's power but thinks Tallison Teixeira is much more skilled and durable at this stage. He notes Teixeira is a BJJ black belt with great volume and power, and Lewis is hittable and has been finished often. He expects Teixeira to finish Lewis early, picking a first-round knockout.
Connor picks Teixeira based on the 'vibe' that he is a young, athletic heavyweight with basic boxing fundamentals and a powerful frame. He acknowledges that Teixeira is untested, with no fight lasting more than three minutes, and that heavyweight prospects often flame out. He compares the matchup to a coin flip, noting that Derrick Lewis can still beat anyone he doesn't respect, but Teixeira's size and aggression give him a good chance to put Lewis away early.
The host sees this as a close fight but likes the value on Lewis at +220. He believes Lewis will be the first to crack back with power against Teixeira, who hasn't faced such resistance. He expects Lewis to clip Teixeira's chin and knock him out. The pick is based on Lewis's power and the odds being favorable.
The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis as an underdog, citing Teixeira's lack of quality opponents and Lewis's experience and power. He notes Lewis has knocked out top heavyweights like Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov, and went five rounds with Jailton Almeida. He expects Lewis to mix in grappling and finish Teixeira by TKO in the second or third round, as Teixeira has been hit by lesser fighters and may struggle with the step up in competition.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Teixeira as the young heavyweight on the rise who has the size, athleticism, and basic technical game to put Derrick Lewis away. He notes that Lewis is technically a shambles with poor footwork and looping strikes, making him vulnerable to a confident, aggressive prospect. However, Zane also acknowledges the uncertainty, stating that Teixeira might just be another flash in the pan like Chris Daukas or Tai Tuivasa.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:23 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 72 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 48 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 24 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 41 of 75 | 54% | 33 of 65 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 18 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 27 of 41 | 65% | 16 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 2 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 15 of 23 | 65% | 8 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 17 of 35 | 48% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 15 of 23 | 65% | 14 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lewis (-148), Nascimento (+124)
Round 1
The UFC heard the constant cries of fans calling for more heavyweight and middleweight main events and made sure to deliver. Despite one victory in his last five go-rounds, Lewis (27-12, 1 NC; 18-10 UFC) is entering into his 12th UFC headliner. He hunts for a concussive victory to extend his knockout record with the promotion, and he has been matched up against Brazilian up-and-comer Nascimento (11-1, 1 NC; 4-1, 1 NC UFC). With seven combined decision wins in their 38 victories, referee Jason Herzog will likely be more than in-cage decoration before the heavyweight headliner is all said and done. With no bad blood between them, the two large gentlemen totaling 529 pounds are summoned to the middle of the cage to bump their extra-large gloves. It’s on with the show. Lewis says hello with a head kick, and when Nascimento comes in towards him, Lewis threatens with an inside trip takedown. Nascimento keeps to his feet as he absorbs a right hand to the side of the head, and he turns Lewis around to the floor. Lewis hits a trip and slams “Yogi Bear” to the ground. Nascimento gets right back up, and Lewis greets him with a knee to the belly. Nascimento tries to take him down in response, but Lewis chucks him to the wall and knees him a few more times for good measure. Nascimento gives him a few knees back to think about, and Lewis elbows him. Nascimento hangs his hands over the fence until Lewis breaks away, and he sneaks in a left hand on the break. Lewis takes a step back to avoid a low kick, and he fires off a jumping switch kick and a swarm of four huge punches. Nascimento ties him up, and Lewis uppercuts and elbows him. Nascimento trips Lewis up and puts him down to the ground, where he looks to get some strikes going on top. Nascimento works the body and head, and he hacks down with a pair of powerful elbows. The Brazilian hammers Lewis with a few more elbows before stepping over to half guard on the other side. Nascimento slashes with elbows until he steps over to full mount, and Lewis explodes at the right time to turn Nascimento over and put the Brazilian on his back. Nascimento clings to his man, holding on to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Round 2
The heavyweights meet in the middle, and Lewis walks through a low kick to sling two hooks. Nascimento gets off a leg kick, and he walks face-first into a huge right hook from “The Black Beast.” Lewis slugs away until the two end up against the wall, and Nascimento holds on to prevent further offense. Lewis thinks about another takedown as they knee one another in the tie-up, and they jockey for position on the fence. Lewis tries to throw his foe down, but Nascimento keeps his balance and stays upright. Nascimento touches Lewis four times, and Lewis drills him with one far more powerful uppercut. Lewis flirts with another trip, and he lets go of the clinch to unleash a series of hammers. Lewis blasts Nascimento with six punches, and Nascimento desperately clings to him to stop him from landing more. Lewis gets enough space to slash an elbow up top, and he leans on Nascimento. Lewis elbows Nascimento and clobbers the Brazilian with some more heavy punches, and he tries a trip but falls over and gives up his back. Nascimento circles around to take his back, and he gets a hook in. Lewis hand-fights to prevent a submission from coming together, and they turn at the same time so that Lewis is on his back while Nascimento is in half guard. Nascimento grinds down with his elbow immediately, and he sits up and slams it down on Lewis’ face a few times. Nascimento remains on top until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Round 3
The heavyweights lumber towards one another, and Lewis tosses out a slow low kick and a one-two that all comes up short. A jumping switch kick from “The Black Beast” slaps into the side, and he measures himself and jumps with a knee. This time, Nascimento is ready for this and counters.
Lewis gathers himself and unleashes hell with a monstrous one-two that separates Nascimento from his senses. Nascimento, barely still conscious, clings to Lewis’ leg in an attempt to show signs of life to Herzog. Lewis hammerfists Nascimento, turning a bit so that he can get a better angle and pound the fight out with vicious power punches.
After around a dozen punctuating blows, Herzog has seen enough, and the UFC’s all-time knockout leader has just gained one more on his mighty ledger. Lewis drops down to his celebratory predator position, and takes his shorts off and fans Nascimento with them. Lewis flops to his back, and he takes his cup out of his undergarments and throws it at the media row—an undisclosed media member catches the groin cup, and he will now have to wash his hands thoroughly. Lewis is not done yet, as he motions to the crowd that he wants to take off his last remaining garb of clothing. After tossing his gloves into the audience, he pulls his shorts down to moon the fans. In his triumphant post-fight interview, Lewis says he’s “getting too old for this s--t” and that commentator Michael Bisping promised him a drink six years ago. Bisping tells Lewis that drinks on him tonight. Next week, the UFC takes back to the Apex, and we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Rodrigo Nascimento R3 0:49 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento as an underdog, expecting him to grapple heavily and win a boring decision. He notes Nascimento's path to victory is closing distance, holding Lewis against the cage, and taking him down. He acknowledges Lewis's power and durability but believes Nascimento can fight a perfect 25 minutes. He is surprised Lewis is the favorite given his 1-4 record in his last five.
Big Brady picks Derrick Lewis to knock out Rodrigo Nascimento in the first round. He notes that Lewis typically picks against Lewis but believes Nascimento is unimpressive, having gone life-and-death with Dontale Mayes and taken Alexey Oleinik to a split decision. He thinks Lewis just needs one big shot and that Nascimento is hittable. He questions if Nascimento will wrestle, as he didn't against Mayes, but expects Lewis to land a knockout.
Cody picks Derrick Lewis, citing Lewis's insane power and ability to get up from takedowns despite a wonky get-up game. He notes that Lewis has a history of losing early rounds but finishing late, as seen against Volkov and Pesta. He believes Nascimento is slow, not durable, and lacks the wrestling to keep Lewis down. Cody suggests Lewis by KO is the most likely outcome but recommends the moneyline for safety.
Daniel Vreeland picks Derrick Lewis, citing his status as the all-time KO leader in the UFC and his ability to explode up from bad positions. He notes that Lewis has to win by knockout, but he leads the UFC in that category. He also mentions that Nascimento has shown heart but that Lewis doesn't often give second chances.
The host picks Nascimento to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lewis is knockout-or-bust and that Nascimento's takedown game and top control should be decisive. He expects Nascimento to get the fight to the ground and find a finish. He advises against betting Lewis as a favorite and suggests waiting for a better number on Nascimento.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Derrick Lewis. He emphasizes that Lewis can lose early rounds but still knock out opponents late, referencing the Volkov and Pesta fights. He notes that Nascimento has poor takedown accuracy (33%) and has struggled against lesser competition. Paul suggests that if Lewis gets taken down early, the live betting line could offer value. He recommends the moneyline over prop bets due to the uncertainty of round.
The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis over Rodrigo Nascimento, arguing that Nascimento has never succeeded in grappling against any opponent and that his only win is against Alan Baudot (overturned). He notes that Lewis has been in big spots while this is Nascimento's first main event. He dismisses Nascimento's chances on the feet, saying if you think he'll succeed there, you're guessing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 120 of 153 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 | 1 | 21:10 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 27 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 38 of 56 | 67% | 32 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 8 | 30 of 41 |
| Derrick Lewis | 20 of 39 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 19 of 29 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 16 of 21 |
| Derrick Lewis | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)
Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.
James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.
Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-215), Lewis (+185)
Round 1
One day ago, this heavyweight slobberknocker that will almost certainly end in either a violent knockout or some serious huffing and puffing – possibly both – is now sitting pretty as the “Featured Fight of the Night” due to the cancelation of the Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira contest. Hunting for his first win since 2021, Lewis (26-11, 1 NC; 17-9 UFC) still holds the UFC’s all-time knockout record, although Matt Brown tied it with him. He draws fellow knockout artist Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1, 10-6 UFC), and the structural integrity of the cage will be tested when these big men get after it. They lumber towards one another, not offering a glove touch, and referee Dan Miragliotta is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Lewis shockingly leaps in the air, blasting Rogerio de Lima in the chops with a flying knee. Rogerio de Lima collapses to the ground, and Lewis jumps on top and starts hammering him with vicious ground-and-pound. Rogerio de Lima considers hunting for leglock while trying to survive, but he is in a bad, bad way. Lewis continues slugging him on the face and side of the head, and Rogerio de Lima bails on any possible sub setup and just looks to keep it together. Rogerio de Lima turns to his knees, and the writing may be on the wall here. “The Black Beast” continues swarming Rogerio de Lima with everything he has, and Miragliotta has no choice but to call the fight. Lewis unmounts his defeated opponent, takes his shorts off and starts gleefully running around the cage. He proceeds, in just his underpants, to triumphantly motion the crotch chop several times. Lewis jumps on the cage, happy as can be, celebrating in vintage Derrick Lewis fashion. The UFC’s knockout record now singularly sits in the lap of Lewis, who tells commentator Joe Rogan that his contract is now up and that he hopes to be re-signed by the promotion. If not, as he says, “it is what it is.” The rest of the top-notch post-fight remarks cannot be done justice by a simple play-by-play writeup, and must be heard.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Marcos Rogerio de Lima R1 0:33 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Marcos Rogério de Lima, stating he is better everywhere except power. He notes that Derrick Lewis is always dangerous with his knockout power, but believes Lima's wrestling, BJJ, and leg kicks will be too much. He placed a 1-unit bet at -129 and notes the line has already moved to -190.
Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round TKO via leg kicks. He argues de Lima has more paths to victory: knockout to the head, leg kick TKO, or submission. He questions Derrick Lewis's durability, cardio, and mentality, noting Lewis has been finished early in recent fights. He expects de Lima's leg kicks to shut down Lewis quickly.
Cody picks Lewis by KO, noting Lewis's power and ability to come from behind. He acknowledges Lewis's losing streak but points out the level of competition (Curtis Blaydes, Serghei Spivac, etc.) is much higher than de Lima's wins. He believes de Lima's cardio and chin are suspect, especially at altitude, and Lewis's heart and power will prevail. He took a small bet on Lewis by KO at +270.
James believes de Lima should be a sizable favorite, as Lewis is past his prime and has lost four of his last five. He notes de Lima's leg kicks are a key weapon and that Lewis has poor cardio and doesn't like leg kicks. He expects de Lima to land leg kicks early and possibly finish Lewis, though he acknowledges de Lima also gasses.
De Lima is on a good run and has power and leg kicks to slow Lewis down. He can also take Lewis down and smash him from top position. Lewis is on a losing streak and seems to have slowed down at 38. De Lima should be aggressive early to avoid Lewis's late power. I'm leaning on de Lima under 2.5 rounds.
Paul also picks Lewis, emphasizing the talent gap: de Lima's wins are over lower-tier heavyweights while Lewis has fought top contenders. He notes de Lima's history of quitting under adversity (e.g., tapping to a forearm choke against Romanov). He believes Lewis's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power will be decisive, especially at altitude where de Lima's cardio will falter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivak (-230), Lewis (+195)
Round 1
The heavyweight main event is set to go, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. Both big men are in orthodox stance. Spivak inches forward with feints, and when Lewis steps in to throw, Spivak uses a beautiful scarf throw to put him down. Spivak is in side control, looking for a choke, then moves to the back and throws heavy punches. Goddard looks on, giving Lewis time to work, and Lewis stands back up, only to be hurled down again. Lewis gets back to his feet and Spivak throws him again, with Lewis landing right on his head. Lewis gets back up and Spivak repeats the cycle yet once more. This time, Spivak tries for an arm-triangle and gets it with minimal resistance. He squeezes and Lewis taps. Complete domination on the ground by Sergey Spivak.
The Official Result
Sergey Spivak def. Derrick Lewis R1 3:05 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.
Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.
Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.
Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-125), Lewis (+105)
Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when this featured heavyweight fight was booked. One man holds the promotion’s all-time knockout record, while the other is a sturdy Russian striker who has won his last three with his fists. Lewis (26-9, 1 NC; 17-7 UFC) who likely will end the night with the biggest pop from the crowd, will try to get back on track after a stunning knockout against the stoic Pavlovich (15-1, 3-1 UFC). Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to keep his wits about him at all times, lest he get clipped by an errant blow, as fighters sporting knockout rates of 80% or higher are about to clash in front of his eyes. Lewis trots out of his corner and offers a glove touch, and it is accepted as the “USA” chants rain down in support of him. Lewis starts with a leg kick, and Pavlovich strides forward and sticks out a jab. Lewis does not bite on any feints, and he scores with a big left hand. They proceed to start slugging it out, and Lewis gets rocked with a right hand on the jaw. The Russian, seeing that Lewis got tagged, cracks Lewis with an uppercut and a right hand that knocks Lewis face-first into the fencing. Lewis backpedals, and Pavlovich gives chase and bombards him with punches. Lewis bends over to avoid the blows, and Pavlovich slugs him with several punches to force Lewis to fall forward and bonk his head on the mat. Lewis springs right back up, and Miragliotta intervenes to stop the fight, clearly seeing something others did not see as Lewis protests the stoppage immediately. The fans are outraged by what they believe to be an early stoppage, and Lewis may have been in trouble but he appeared to have his wits about him given his incensed reaction. Regardless of the feelings on the finishing sequence, Pavlovich has just officially recorded the biggest win of his career in hostile territory. Big fights almost certainly loom for the man out of Eagles MMA.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Derrick Lewis R1 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout. He cites Pavlovich's youth, reach advantage, and high volume striking. He notes Lewis has been finished in most of his losses and Pavlovich has power. He acknowledges Lewis can never be counted out but leans toward Pavlovich landing first.
Cody leans Pavlovich, noting his physical attributes: 84-inch reach, power, and youth. He acknowledges the unknown of Pavlovich's cardio beyond the first round, as all his UFC wins are first-round finishes. He also notes that Pavlovich is a wrestler but chooses to stand and bang, which could be dangerous against Lewis. He thinks Pavlovich's speed and boxing combinations will allow him to hit Lewis before Lewis can counter. He also mentions that Lewis is on the downswing, older, and less motivated.
Daniel likes Pavlovich's youth, output, size, and momentum after three straight wins. He notes Pavlovich's 5-inch reach advantage and his ability to flow punches into kicks. He acknowledges the risk of Lewis' one-punch knockout power, calling Lewis the greatest knockout artist in heavyweight history. He mentions Lewis' age (37), back problems, and tendency to sometimes not show up. He also notes that Lewis has lost in Texas before. He bet Pavlovich at plus 100 and is riding with it, but only one unit due to the volatility.
Preet picks Lewis, believing he will land his hammer and knock out Pavlovich in the first round. He notes Lewis's nuclear power and desire to make up for his loss to Tai Tuivasa. He thinks the odds are influenced by recency bias and that Lewis's Texas pride will drive him. He calls the fight volatile and prefers plus money on either side.
Paul picks Pavlovich but calls it a coin flip. He notes that neither fighter has much appetite for grappling and they will stand in the center. He mentions that Pavlovich has taken less punishment over his career and that Lewis is open to leg kicks and body shots, but Pavlovich is a head hunter. He thinks Pavlovich's reach and power are advantages, but he wouldn't be shocked if Lewis knocks him out. He also notes that Lewis is fighting in Texas and has a history of losing at home.
The MMA Guru predicts Sergei Pavlovich by first-round KO. He expects Pavlovich to land big jabs, push Lewis against the cage with knees, and eventually land a right hand that stuns Lewis. Pavlovich will follow up with ground-and-pound for the TKO. The Guru emphasizes Pavlovich's power and pressure.
Alexander Volkov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 88 of 143 | 61% | 88 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 54 of 130 | 41% | 54 of 130 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 33 of 44 | 75% | 33 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 34 of 56 | 60% | 34 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 88 of 143 | 61% | 22 of 70 | 23 of 29 | 43 of 44 | 88 of 143 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 54 of 130 | 41% | 30 of 91 | 6 of 13 | 18 of 26 | 53 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 33 of 44 | 75% | 4 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 22 | 33 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 15 of 33 | 45% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 34 of 56 | 60% | 13 of 31 | 7 of 11 | 14 of 14 | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 22 of 47 | 46% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 21 of 43 | 48% | 5 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 17 of 50 | 34% | 15 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 6 | 16 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+150)
Round 1
Although the UFC’s heavyweight title picture is in flux with Tom Aspinall still recovering, Jon Jones suggesting that Elvis has left the building and Ciryl Gane battling Alex Pereira for the interim strap, this next one might end up serving as a de facto eliminator match. Volkov (39-11, 13-5 UFC) may have questionably come up on the wrong end of the scorecards in his rematch with Gane, and a win could propel him back to gold. Standing in his way will be surging former pitcher Cortes-Acosta (17-2, 10-2 UFC), who has won three straight. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the big men, standing back as they lumber towards one another without a glove touch in sight.
Volkov starts off with kicks to the lead leg and body. He alternates them while Cortes-Acosta tries to get a read on his way in. Volkov keeps pecking away with these distance-keeping kicks, and he takes a flush jab on the nose. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a right hand follow-up, but his low kick scores with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta chases after the Russian, coiling back his right hand to attack. Volkov keeps to his preferred range, bringing up a foot just short of the face and going right back to the front leg. Volkov lands a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta charges him behind four punches that largely careen off the raised guard. Cortes-Acosta again tries to swarm, but Volkov slips and clips him with a left hook while escaping.
Volkov peppers the midsection with his foot as fans chant his name, and he is in range for just one punch before strafing to the side. Volkov beats on the lead leg a few more times, doing so until Cortes-Acosta leans down to try to catch it. Cortes-Acosta does not get the leg, so he wings power punches that miss the mark. Volkov slams his shin in the body, and he is met with a jab and sees the overhand coming at him. Volkov pushes off the belly and spins away before absorbing anything of merit. Cortes-Acosta blitzes him and lands a left hand flush, and Volkov splits off and continues his decimation of the front leg. Volkov’s one-two misses, and Cortes-Acosta rallies with his own jab. Cortes-Acosta digs a left hand to the side, and his overhand right misses while Volkov is resetting. Volkov lands a few more kicks as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
The heavyweights do not break their gaze when leaving their corners, and Volkov picks up where he left off with a slapping body kick. Cortes-Acosta smacks his side to draw more on, and he wings a right hand that buzzes the tower. Volkov ducks a monster punch to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta lashes out with an elbow that is an inch away from doing damage. Volkov works the inside of the front leg, and he stays planted too long and is clubbed with a right hand. Volkov circles off and plants a front kick on the stomach and another to the front leg. Volkov offers a high kick up and dances away from the counters he knows are coming, and he does not slow on working the front leg with his kicks. Cortes-Acosta kicks him back a few times, but the impact of the swings differs significantly. Volkov lances Cortes-Acosta with a one-two, moving to the side as he is more intent on breaking his foe down than outright knocking him flat.
The low kicks are starting to have an impact, with Cortes-Acosta tripping up on his way in. Cortes-Acosta lobs a bomb of a right hand, and Volkov shifts to the side. Cortes-Acosta points to the ground to try to initiate a brawl, angrily shouting at his opponent. Volkov welcomes this by blasting Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand that staggers him. Cortes-Acosta backs off and tries to lure his foe in, but Volkov is smart and just tags him on the outside. Volkov’s body kick gets through, and he leans away as Cortes-Acosta telegraphs his swings. He scores a low kick, and a frustrated Cortes-Acosta turns his hips into one coming back at him. Volkov flicks out a body kick and brushes Cortes-Acosta’s hair with his shin, catching a leaning Cortes-Acosta with a long right hand. A think trickle of blood leaks from the top of Volkov’s cheek, and he does not change his game plan one iota as he rips the body. Cortes-Acosta crashes at him with heavy punches, only to be jabbed back by the Russian. Volkov’s final inside low kick of the round draws a noteworthy reaction out of his opponent, with Cortes-Acosta limping back to lean on his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 3
Cortes-Acosta is the aggressor to start the final frame, whether he is tied on the scorecards or down on them, it does not matter. He flicks a low kick at the Russian, slowly working his way to crowd forward. Volkov chambers and looses a kick to the ribs, and he goes upstairs and then to the sternum in rapid succession. Cortes-Acosta’s own counter kick does not land, and he gets his leg kicked out from beneath him when rushing forward. Cortes-Acosta lunges with his fingers outstretched and jams one in Volkov’s eye, and Beltran is about to have them play through it but calls time instead to let Volkov recover. When they resume, Cortes-Acosta is angry. The Dominican starts hurling bombs, and Volkov suddenly freezes him with a jab directly into the eye socket. Volkov’s nose is pouring blood out after absorbing a bomb or two, but Cortes-Acosta is the one who appears to be struggling more as Volkov pecks away at him. Volkov digs a kick to the body and leans as a right hand upstairs brushes past his hair. Cortes-Acosta loads up on big firepower, further bloodying up the Russian’s nose as he headhunts. Volkov stands in the pocket too long to absorb a flush uppercut, but his position allows him to jab out with a front kick that sucks some of the air out of Cortes-Acosta’s lungs.
Cortes-Acosta rushes forward for a takedown, and Volkov stonewalls him and shoves him to the fence. Cortes-Acosta breaks off with a knee to the body. Volkov backs off, breathing hard as he struggles to get any air through his bloodied nostrils, and he offers up a body kick. Volkov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta has his right hand coiled and ready to launch. Cortes-Acosta uses power jabs, targeting the beacon that is Volkov’s red and shiny nose. Volkov jabs him back, and he dodges a missile of a right hand by a whisker. Volkov pins a one-two on the nose and lands two low kicks, the second of which staggering Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta still goes out swinging furiously, and he tries to get one last brawl with seconds left. Volkov gets on his bike after jabbing and chopping at the front leg, and he stays out of range as time runs out.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.
Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.
Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.
Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.
Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.
The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.
Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.
Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.
Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.
The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.
Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.
Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 24 of 27 | 88% | 123 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:57 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 27 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 10:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 15 | 100% | 38 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:14 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 77 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 24 of 27 | 88% | 19 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 17 |
| Jailton Almeida | 9 of 10 | 90% | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 15 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 15 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jailton Almeida | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 7 of 8 | 87% | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jailton Almeida | 5 of 5 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.
Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.
Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.
Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.
Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.
The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.
Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 43 of 61 | 70% | 48 of 66 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 105 of 140 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 4:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 12 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 27 of 39 | 69% | 27 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 68 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 43 of 61 | 70% | 14 of 30 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 20 | 40 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Alexander Volkov | 39 of 71 | 54% | 19 of 46 | 18 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 36 of 67 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 12 of 15 | 80% | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Alexander Volkov | 10 of 14 | 71% | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 27 of 39 | 69% | 9 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkov | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 32 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 23 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ciryl Gane | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkov | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ciryl Gane, stating he will win the same way he did in their first fight: with superior footwork and technique. He notes Volkov hasn't shown improvements in striking or wrestling since then, and hasn't attempted a takedown in years. Gane's striking is elite, as shown in his 109-11 significant strike advantage over Sergey Pavlovich. The fight is only three rounds, favoring Gane.
Cody picks Gane, expecting a similar striking battle to their first fight. He notes Volkov's momentum but believes Gane's speed and Muay Thai will outpoint him. He suggests Gane by decision, as Volkov likely won't wrestle. He also mentions a YOLO bet on Volkov by submission at long odds.
Connor states that Gane is simply better at the same game Volkov plays. He notes that Gane is faster, more fluid, and operates at the same range more efficiently. The first fight was a dominant win for Gane, and Connor sees no reason for a different outcome unless Volkov switches to wrestling, which he doubts will work.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ciryl Gane, stating that Volkov used to be much bigger or longer than his opponents, but that's not the case here. He notes Gane is better technically on the feet and can avoid getting hit, allowing him to pick Volkov apart and likely win a decision.
Daniel picks Gane based on his previous win and superior athleticism, but notes Volkov's hunger and recent resurgence. He mentions Gane's mental fragility in big fights and Volkov's four-fight win streak, making this a lean rather than confident pick.
Jeff Fox picks Alexander Volkov for the value, noting that Volkov has looked infinitely better in his last few fights and is clearly making improvements late in his career. He points to Volkov's dominant win over Pavlovich as evidence, and mentions Volkov's underrated wrestling and Ezekiel choke finish. Fox believes Volkov learns from his previous loss to Gane and will show a better version of himself, and that the fight was closer than the odds suggest.
Lucrative James picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, expecting a repeat of their first fight. He highlights Gane's elite jab and in-fight adaptations as key. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard, with Gane outworking Volkov over five rounds. He doesn't see Volkov improving enough to change the outcome.
Gane will utilize his footwork, speed, and striking to get the better of Volkov once again, staying away from any grappling threat or power shots. Gane is still the better mixed martial artist and will win this fight on the scorecards.
Paul picks Gane, citing his cleaner striking and speed advantage. He notes Volkov's wrestling ability but doubts he'll use it. He thinks Gane will win a decision in a three-round fight, as Volkov is content to stand and trade.
The MMA Guru picks Gane in the rematch, noting Volkov's improved standup but believing Gane can match his output and movement. He thinks Volkov cannot hurt Gane, while Gane has a better chance of hurting Volkov. He also cites Volkov's knee injury postponing the fight as a factor favoring Gane, especially in a low-kick battle.
Zane echoes Connor, noting that Gane's speed and movement outclass Volkov. He points out that Volkov's game relies on range and size, but Gane is faster and can operate in the same range. Zane also mentions that Volkov would need to change his approach drastically to win, which is unlikely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 46 of 134 | 34% | 46 of 134 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 83 of 159 | 52% | 83 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 16 of 52 | 30% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 46 of 134 | 34% | 38 of 120 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 134 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 83 of 159 | 52% | 35 of 89 | 16 of 28 | 32 of 42 | 83 of 159 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 43 | 34% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 50 | 52% | 9 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 15 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 10 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 31 of 55 | 56% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 16 of 19 | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 16 of 52 | 30% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 54 | 48% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
The high-stakes, all-Russian, heavyweight co-main event kicks off, with Jason Herzog on referee duty. Volkov immediately goes to his front kick up the middle, trying to keep the shorter power puncher at bay. Pavlovich stalks, flicking out his long jab and looking for opportunities to spring into range on his towering foe. Pavlovich comes inside and is met by a hard jab, then lands on of his own. Volkov plants a kick on the liver, and ducks a vicious overhand counter. Volkov throws a jab to the body and Pavlovich comes back with a right high kick that lands on the shoulder. Under 90 seconds to go in the round, and everything is still tense, tentative; it feels as though either man might land a fight-ending blow at any moment. Volkov reaches out with a southpaw left cross and slips the counter. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov is again mobile, throwing single and double jabs while sliding around the outside of the cage. A huge overhand right from Pavlovich misses just short. Volkov switches stances freely, using kicks to disguise them. Pavlovich throws a high kick that bounces off Volkov’s shoulder as he turns. Pavlovich is stalking, trying to cut off the cage. He is bleeding from the bridge of the nose, thanks to the reliable jab and one-two of Volkov. Volkov reaches out with a slow kick that slaps off the arms, then retreats as Pavlovich surges forward with punches. Volkov throws his teep up the middle, the ball of his foot connecting with the midsection of Pavlovich. Pavlovich catches Volkov with a big right hand that causes him to stagger. Volkov seems to recover, however, moving laterally and avoiding any follow-up. Volkov connects with a standing hammerfist. Pavlovich continues to follow, but can’t land anything of consequence before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 3
Round 3 opens as the first two did, with Volkov in southpaw, moving laterally around the outside as orthodox Pavlovich gives chase. The face of Pavlovich is showing the wear of two good rounds of patient, methodical jabs and crosses from his countryman. Pavlovich eats a jab and lunges in with a big right hand that doesn’t quite land squarely. Volkov sticks Pavlovich with a lead right hand and eats a three-piece combo in return. Volkov looks loose, throwing hard punches and willingly engaging, despite likely being ahead on the cards. His corner is audibly screaming at him. Halfway through the round, the pace has settled back down, and Pavlovich is plodding forward, walking right into the push kick and jab of Volkov. Pavlovich explodes forwards with a pair of punches that are mostly parried. Pavlovich dips and drives Volkov to the cage, perhaps looking for a takedown, but gives up on the attempt with 30 seconds to go. Pavlovich comes forward and punches the body, and catches Volkov cleanly on the shin at the 10-second clapper. Volkov eats it like a blini, returning fire with a head kick. The final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Sergei Pavlovich via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Volkov, citing his height, reach, experience, and well-rounded game. He thinks Volkov will slow the pace, lean on Pavlovic, and grind out a win. He notes Pavlovic is a powerful boxer but lacks cardio and wrestling. He believes the friendship between them will lead to a feeling-out process, making the over 1.5 rounds a good bet. He placed a bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his devastating power and Volkov's admission that Pavlovich hurts him in sparring. He notes that if Volkov tries to wrestle, it's not his game, and striking with Pavlovich is dangerous. Brady expects Pavlovich to swarm and finish early.
Cody picks Volkov as an underdog, highlighting his reach, counter-striking, and cardio advantage. He believes Volkov can use kicks to keep distance, time Pavlovich's charges with counters, and potentially take the fight to the ground where Pavlovich is vulnerable. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to walk straight in with his hands down.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Volkov as the underdog, citing Pavlovich's lack of experience past round one in the UFC and potential cardio issues. He believes Volkov can use his reach, jabs, and teeps to pick Pavlovich apart if he survives the early onslaught. However, he is hesitant because Pavlovich's power could end the fight early.
Jacob picks Volkov, noting he doesn't lose to strikers and knows how to keep range and mix in takedowns. He worries about the friendship angle potentially leading to a sparring match, but thinks if Pavlovic pulls punches, Volkov wins. He also notes Pavlovic looks jacked but that might work against his cardio. He advises staying away from betting on this fight entirely.
JP is a Volkov hater and confidently picks Pavlovich by KO/TKO, citing Pavlovich's wins over Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. He expects Pavlovich to clip Volkov early. Brevan disagrees, picking Volkov by decision, arguing that Volkov's size, chin, and experience will take Pavlovich into deep waters. He notes Volkov's technical striking and ability to survive round one. The hosts have opposing picks.
Paul agrees with the underdog pick, citing Volkov's length, experience, and submission threat. He notes that Pavlovich is a battering ram but has shown vulnerability when taken down, as seen against Aspinall. Paul believes Volkov can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Alexander Volkov, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Volkov's toughness and kicking game, especially against plodding opponents, but believes Pavlovich's power and pressure will eventually catch Volkov against the cage. He notes that Volkov tends to back up and shell up, which could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Pavlovich's reach and head-hunting style are threats, but admits Volkov is a live underdog and the odds should be closer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 93 of 143 | 65% | 107 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 51 of 83 | 61% | 53 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 42 of 60 | 70% | 54 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 28 of 67 | 41% | 4 of 31 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 27 | 26 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 93 of 143 | 65% | 65 of 110 | 18 of 21 | 10 of 12 | 72 of 115 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 0 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 16 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 51 of 83 | 61% | 29 of 56 | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 50 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 13 of 28 | 46% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 42 of 60 | 70% | 36 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)
Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because when these heavyweights start swinging, someone may go down hard. While Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC) has struggled against the top echelon of the division, the same can be said about his Russian adversary Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) – although only the former is on a losing streak. Combining for about 528.5 pounds in the cage, not counting referee Herb Dean, the large strikers will be performing a stress test on the cage floor and walls for as long as one remains standing. The heavy fists are bumped first as a courtesy, and Volkov goes right after a leg kick. He lifts his leg up when Tuivasa slings one back harder, and he tries to check it again when Tuivasa swings hard. Volkov counters another low kick with a right hand over the top, and he shoulder-rolls a punch to smack “Bam Bam” with an uppercut. Tuivasa comes up close and digs a right hand to the body, and his leg kicks might already be having an impact. Volkov slaps back a low kick, and he strings a one-two into a body kick that rustles Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa laughs it off, and the two resume after a glove touch. Volkov doubles up a low kick with one to the body, and Tuivasa runs at him flailing his fists. The Russian counters him and slides out of the way, and Tuivasa keeps coming towards him as his nose starts to bleed from jabs and straight right hands. Tuivasa has a leg kick caught, and he gets knocked to his knees from a piston-like right hand from “Drago.” Volkov allows his foe to get back up, and he times a Tuivasa charge with a right hand and two more quick punches on the inside. Tuivasa walks into a leg kick that he tries to turn with, and Volkov circles on the outside not allowing the Aussie to trap him. Tuivasa scores a low kick, and Volkov responds with a body kick, a left hand and a head kick. Tuivasa takes it all flush and ducks down while swinging a huge right hand, and Volkov counters him and gets nailed with a leg kick. Tuivasa unloads with another leg kick, and Volkov lifts his leg up and then strings several punches and kick together. Tuivasa scares his man with a pair of punches, but Volkov rolls well enough and resets to target Tuivasa’s body several times. Volkov dips out of the way of an overhand right, and he tries to check a leg kick and drops Tuivasa with a right hand. Volkov grips a guillotine choke, and he lets it go to bust Tuivasa up with several short punches and two nasty elbows. Tuivasa backs off, and he lets loose a leg kick with all his might. Volkov grunts and racks Tuivasa up with six punches and two body kicks. Tuivasa gets knocked against the wall, and he bends over, taking shots, until the horn sounds to possibly save him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off the second round, and Tuivasa plods forward and releases a powerful leg kick. Tuivasa closes in and gets popped with a few shots, and he leans back and connects with another leg kick. Tuivasa continues to batter the lead leg with kicks, and Volkov is wearing it and is quite ginger on it. Volkov kicks the midsection, and he gets off two uppercuts as Tuivasa bears down on him. Tuivasa blocks several punches but cannot stop the knee that comes up the middle, and he misses two punches and gets knocked back from a huge right hand. Tuivasa’s chin holds up and he grins, blood leaking out of his mouth, and the crowd gives it up for the two putting on the show. Tuivasa kicks low, and Volkov times a perfect right hand to send Tuivasa tumbling to his seat. Volkov climbs on top and advances right to half guard, and he considers a choke only for Tuivasa to muscle his way out of it. Tuivasa blitzes forward, and Volkov lets him do this so he can counter with sharper strikes. Volkov checks a kick and plants a one-two on the chin, and when he checks another, he gets off a right hand that knocks Tuivasa down. With two minutes and 10 seconds remaining, Volkov jumps into full mount, and he unloads punches and smashes the Aussie in the face with an elbow. The Russian keeps his legs intertwined with Tuivasa’s to disallow him from an escape, and Volkov lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke. Volkov bails on it to start striking, and Tuivasa throws back but is getting pummeled. “Bam Bam” rolls over to his stomach and keeps getting pounded, and he nearly escapes out the side only for Volkov to recover and get back to mount. Volkov keeps working with short strikes, and he sets up an Ezekiel choke out of nowhere as he fastens his left forearm arm over the neck and hooks his right arm behind the head. A frantic Tuivasa tries to buck off the massive Russian with all of his energy left, but Volkov uses his full body weight to finish the choke and trap Tuivasa fully. Tuivasa has nothing left to do at this point but choose whether he will submit or go out on his shield, and he taps out on Volkov’s side to conclude the fight. Remarkably, “Drago” has performed just the fourth submission of his career, and it marks his first since 2016. He joins countryman Alexey Oleynik and UFC 7 combatant Remco Pardoel as the only three to ever perform an Ezekiel choke in promotional history.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Tai Tuivasa R2 4:37 via Submission (Ezekiel Choke)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.
Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.
Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.
Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.
Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)
Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.
Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.
Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.
Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.
I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.
Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.
Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 21 of 37 | 56% | 10 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 21 of 37 | 56% | 10 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)
Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.
Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.
Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 13 of 23 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Volkov | 29 of 43 | 67% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 13 of 23 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Volkov | 29 of 43 | 67% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In extremely hostile territory, Russian striker Volkov (34-9, 8-3 UFC) will compete as one half of the main event against surging British upstart and pure finisher Aspinall (11-2, 4-0 UFC). The partisan crowd has been treated to plenty of locals getting their hand raised thus far tonight, and they hope to end the night with the Team Kaobon fighter out of Manchester getting it done once more. Referee Marc Goddard will serve as the final Octagon ranger of the evening, and a cool hand shake is exchanged before the two inflict powerful heavyweight violence on one another. Aspinall starts first with several quick punches, landing a trio of shots on the chin as Volkov is caught standing still. Volkov backs off to get into his preferred range, landing leg kicks and checking one of his own. The Brit surges forward, grabbing hold of his opponent and wrenching him down to the mat. Landing in side control one minute into the round, Aspinall elects to step into half guard and hack down with short elbows. Volkov is already cut from these elbows on the side of his head, and Aspinall continues working on it. Aspinall lets go with his other hand, slamming down fists and elbows as Volkov struggles to work his way to the fence. When the Russian sits up, Aspinall isolates a two-on-one wrist lock to try to hunt for a kimura, but Volkov straightens his arm and fights back up to his feet. Aspinall resets, and Volkov chips at him with a leg kick and a right hand as Aspinall advances with a hacking standing elbow. Aspinall attacks the leg and stands right in front of his opponent, throwing strikes, and Volkov is frozen watching it happen. Aspinall throws a kick and falls to the ground, and although Volkov runs over to try to capitalize on the position, Aspinall rolls and stands back up to high five Volkov. The Brit gathers his footing and rushes in, hitting a tackle of a double-leg takedown to put the Russian down to the canvas again.
Instead of hunting for ground-and-pound, Aspinall immediately goes after Volkov’s left arm. Briefly considering a kimura again, Aspinall changes it up to lock up a straight armbar, and Volkov taps out frantically when his elbow hyperextends.
The Team Kaobon fighter releases, and he sprints to the cage wall to climb it alongside teammate Darren Till. This is unquestionably a breakout performance for the instant heavyweight contender, blowing through a durable, crafty veteran while barely breaking a sweat. What a major turn of events in a fight card full of them, closing out a thrilling card that very well will be involved in “Event of the Year” conversations in nine-plus months. In his post-fight conversation with commentator Michael Bisping, the victorious Aspinall challenges Tai Tuivasa to drink beer with him – and fight – when the promotion returns to England. Should that come together, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Alexander Volkov R1 3:45 via Submission (Straight Armbar)
Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior pure striking, more power, and better grappling compared to Volkov. He notes that Volkov has lost to strikers like Gane and Lewis, and to grapplers like Blaydes. Angelo acknowledges Volkov's durability and the fact that Aspinall has never gone three rounds, but still sees Aspinall as the straightforward pick. He has a moneyline bet on Aspinall at minus 110.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by late knockout. He has question marks about Aspinall's cardio, as Aspinall has never won a fight past 1.5 rounds and slowed in the Arlovski fight. Brady believes Volkov has a proven chin, excellent cardio, and has faced much better competition. He doubts Aspinall can take Volkov down and thinks the fight will stay on the feet, where Volkov's experience and durability will prevail.
Cody picks Aspinall but is hesitant due to the five-round distance. He notes Aspinall's speed and power advantage, and thinks his grappling might be better, but the five rounds scare him. He hasn't placed a bet on it.
Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall at dog odds (+110), citing his speed advantage, confidence, and Volkov's potential decline after missing a title shot. He notes Aspinall's footwork and movement are rare for a heavyweight, and that Volkov's recent performances have been shaky. Levi acknowledges the cardio question but believes Aspinall can finish early or outpoint Volkov. He also mentions that Volkov's last two five-round fights were losses.
Volkov is a 43-fight veteran who has only been knocked out twice, showing durability. Aspinall's win condition is a first-round KO; if he doesn't get it, he fades. Volkov's range kickboxing, teeps, and leg kicks will chip away at Aspinall's gas tank. Aspinall's win over Spivak was impressive but Spivak looked intimidated. Volkov at underdog odds is great value; I'll bet him at +120 to +130 for 2 units. I'm picking Volkov via third-round TKO.
Paul picks Volkov, emphasizing the five-round advantage and Volkov's durability. He argues Aspinall needs a first-round KO, but Volkov has a good chin and cardio. He cites Volkov's improvements in takedown defense and size, and believes Aspinall's aggressive style will lead to fatigue in later rounds.
The Guru picks Tom Aspinall despite the close odds, citing Aspinall's speed, power, and grappling pedigree. He notes Volkov's vulnerability to being cracked, referencing Derrick Lewis's knockout, and believes Aspinall's team focus (after Darren Till left) will elevate him. He also mentions potential hometown judging bias in the UK. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Aspinall landing a 1-2 straight down the pipe.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!