UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 06, 2018 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 43
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Dominick Reyes
5.39 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.49 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ovince Saint Preux
3.03 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.33 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.09 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Dominick Reyes - Fight History
WIN vs Johnny Walker
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 34 of 73 46% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dominick Reyes 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 34 of 73 46% 10 of 35 7 of 17 17 of 21 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 42 of 80 52% 7 of 31 6 of 11 29 of 38 41 of 78 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 10 of 19 52% 5 of 11 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 17 of 28 60% 2 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 18 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 9 of 19 47% 4 of 12 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 13 of 28 46% 3 of 14 1 of 5 9 of 9 12 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Reyes 15 of 35 42% 1 of 12 2 of 8 12 of 15 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 12 of 24 50% 2 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 11 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.

"I'm going to pick Dominick. I think he's just the more technical of the two. If he can avoid getting caught up in the craziness, then he should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.

first round knockout
"I'm going to lean Dominick Reyes... give me Dominick Reyes to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.

"I am going to actually go with Dominic Grace as well... I just feel like Reyes is going to be able to snipe him, hit him with something before the damage comes the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"So I have to pick Reyes here. Yeah, I don't think he's actually at SVG Ireland anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.

"I think that Dominic Reyes has always been slightly better than Johnny Walker. Slightly a bit more technical, more well-rounded, and has just accomplished a little bit more than Walker. So, I'm going to pick him for that reason."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.

over 1.5 rounds (+158)
"I'm going to go Walker for nothing more to play devil's advocate. Like I said, this is a 50/50 fight to me."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.

"Walker is probably my lean on this one, but not with any amount of confidence cuz I don't rate Walker particularly highly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.

"I'm picking Johnny Walker in this one, right? And the reason I'm doing that is because he's a little bit more unorthodox and I feel like if you're unorthodox you can catch Dominic Reyes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.

Walker wins by knockout
"I end up siding with Walker ever so slightly. I think he'll end up finding that chin on Reyes and putting him away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.

"I'm gonna I'm gonna side with Dom Reyes just because I I prefer his his striking technique, his style."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.

"I'm going to go with Dominic Reyes getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"Reyes really should just be able to sit down on one twos, check a couple kicks, be reasonably composed while Walker either throws himself wildly forward or throws himself wildly backward."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
KO R1 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.

Expects decision; no finish.
"I'm going to pick Carlos Uber here. I think this is mostly a striking matchup and Carlos is the better striker. While Dominic Reyes has the torso of a giraffe, the reality is he doesn't use his reach very well. …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.

fourth round knockout
"I'm going to go Bberg here. Here, I'm going to goberg by fourth round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.

"I just feel like the value here is clearly on Dominic Rays that should be able to keep this these striking exchanges close has a little more experience, has been five rounds before and then might have low key better …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.

"I think I have to pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.

knockout
"I'm calling Carlos Orberg here. I'm calling Carlos Orberg pretty confidently here. ... I'm going to say knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.

by KO
"I'm predicting Carlosberg in this one. I think he's the better striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.

closer fight than odds indicate
"Reyes obviously has the athleticism and power to change the tide of any fight, but I believe it's going to be the technical advantages of Alberg that causes Reyes to walk onto a counter and eventually get knocked out. This …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.

third round TKO
"I think Carlos Allberg has got this one in the bag."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.

"I think I'm gonna pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
WIN vs Nikita Krylov
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.

"Dominic Ray has got back on track in an emphatic fashion. You know, knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.

He predicts Krylov wins inside the distance.
"I'm going to side with Kryov here. I'll say he gets it done inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
WIN vs Anthony Smith
TKO (elbows and punches) R2 4:46 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 121 of 162 74% 172 of 232 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 48 of 76 63% 53 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dominick Reyes 0 73 of 86 84% 119 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 121 of 162 74% 110 of 149 8 of 10 3 of 3 48 of 75 17 of 22 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 48 of 76 63% 38 of 64 8 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 73 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 73 of 86 84% 72 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 16 of 19 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.

"Anthony Smith is going to be the pick though cry about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.

"I'll take Reyes... likely third round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.

Connor mentions the odds are getting wider, with Smith at +248 to +273, and says he doesn't like those odds because Reyes' losses were bad.
"I'm gonna pick anthony smith a guy go for it. Yeah make i'll pick reas but I do not trust dominic reas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.

"I simply think that Reyes is a better fighter than Anthony Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.

"I think that would lead to Reyes touching up Smith from distance throughout the course of 15 minutes and getting his hand raised on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.

"I can't touch Dominic Reyes... it's dog or pass for me, leaning pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.

Reyes wins by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going Dominic Reyes I think Anthony Smith is terrible"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.

Zane comments on the odds, noting Reyes opened at -345 and is now -329, and says that a shocking knockout win over Jacoby does not make Reyes back.
"I think ray's is gonna hurt him and pick up a round and feel pretty good about himself... I would like to see ray as win."
WIN vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punches) R1 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.

"I think Dustin jacobe wins this fight while he is a very high level technical kickboxer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.

"I'm taking Dustin jacobe to win this fight I'll take him to Win It by decision but I want nothing to do with this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.

Dominick Reyes to win by split or majority decision
"I have to take a couple greasy dogs and Rees is one of those greasy dogs so I'll take Dom Rees and just hope to God that the year off the couple years off the time off I should say …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.

knockout
"I think uh I think jacobe actually comes out here and knocks him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think that jab is eventually just going to wear down Dominic ryes I'm going be rooting for him man I hope he comes through"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.

knockout
"I'm going to lean jacobe here minus 225 just makes me a little bit queasy... I'm going to lean Jobe by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.

"I am tempted to bet Dominic Reyes but like for what purpose like he's he's obviously shown that you know Ryan span knocking him out in the first round that's the other guys Yuri and and yon bovic two guys …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.

Decision win prediction; mentions 29-28 or 30-27 scorecards
"you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong... I'm going to say that jacobe wins a decision"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
KO (punches) R1 1:20 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann (206.6: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)

Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.

"I'm gonna hold off on a pick here watch our Tuesday night breakdown maybe I'm more confident then"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.

Reyes by KO in round 1; not recommended for betting
"give me Dominic Reyes give me Dominic Reyes by knockout in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.

"I know this one's probably a bad call but I'll I'm spamming Underdog and I think on Ryan's fan... I just think on a card that I again agree with a lot of the favorites I feel like there's maybe …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.

"Dominic Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.

Predicts a knockout win for Reyes; odds mentioned: Reyes -225, Spann +190 at DraftKings
"I think Dominic Reyes gets back on track like the guys that have been beating Reyes are all Champions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.

over 1.5 rounds (-120)
"I do lean Reyes here I just can't get past or behind that minus 225 line considering his layoff"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.

"I'm gonna pick Dominic Reyes here I just think uh if this fight does get extended which a lot of spam fights do not Reyes should absolutely like lap lap em in uh in volume."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.

guillotine choke
"I think I'm gonna go over Ryan's bam"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.

"Unless the bond gets really lucky early, uh, Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
KO (spinning back elbow) R2 4:29 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 63 of 108 58% 68 of 114 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 1 77 of 136 56% 78 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 0 45 of 81 55% 45 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 24 of 42 57% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 32 of 55 58% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 63 of 108 58% 39 of 81 21 of 24 3 of 3 57 of 100 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 77 of 136 56% 61 of 119 16 of 17 0 of 0 70 of 122 1 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 39 of 66 59% 25 of 51 12 of 13 2 of 2 39 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 45 of 81 55% 36 of 71 9 of 10 0 of 0 44 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 24 of 42 57% 14 of 30 9 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 34 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 32 of 55 58% 25 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 43 0 of 0 6 of 12
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.

under 2.5 rounds, first round knockout
"i'm gonna take dominic reyes here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.

under 1.5 rounds (lean)
"i am going to go yeary in this spot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with uh the favorite here yuri prohaska to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.

Jiří Procházka by KO at +125; Over 1.5 rounds at -155; Fight won't start round 4 at -210; Fight won't start round 3 at -130
"I do like pro husks guy here i think he gets it done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.

under 2.5 rounds (preference)
"i'm gonna take yuri as well i'm leaning towards that under one and a half but honestly one i'd rather be under two and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.

second round TKO
"i'm going with yuri project man got the momentum tko second round over dominic reyes"
LOSS vs Jan Błachowicz
TKO (punches) R2 4:36 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 41 of 89 46% 41 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 26 of 53 49% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 21 of 51 41% 9 of 35 2 of 5 10 of 11 21 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 41 of 89 46% 25 of 70 6 of 9 10 of 10 37 of 83 1 of 2 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 10 of 20 50% 3 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 7 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 15 of 36 41% 2 of 22 5 of 6 8 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 31 35% 6 of 23 1 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 53 49% 23 of 48 1 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 47 1 of 2 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.

Reyes by third-round knockout
"give me dominic reyes i'm going to say uh third round knockout for dominic reyes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.

dog or pass situation; plus 230 on yom blakovich in a title fight
"i'm gonna slightly edge reyes here just because he gave jones that tough fight but like dude this might be a situation where you pick reyes and bet yamlakova just because of the betting odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.

over 2.5 rounds, Błachowicz by decision
"I like yamahovich in this spot but for some reason i just can't pull the trigger... i'm actually going to go with yamblahovic to win this fight by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.

Win by KO in round 1 or 2
"i think he'll catch jan blackovich in the first or second round with a big shot and finished a job much like santos did"
Ovince Saint Preux - Fight History
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:35 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.

Not betting due to uncertainty
"I'm going to pick Ryan span here... I'm not betting on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.

first round knockout
"I'm going take a Ryan span here to win this fight by first round knockout it's hard to trust him I see why people are betting OSP but I I mean I think Ryan span should I mean Ryan span …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.

"OSP will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.

"I convinced you to pick Ryan's bond. Because OSP is... the fights that he's won are either against guys much smaller than him in the past or much slower than him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.

"I think ovince uh is going to complete the trifecta of the and be the forest MMA killer"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.

moneyline is very juicy at the current price
"I do believe same PR will do a good enough job in terms of avoiding the early finishing power of Ryan span and then chipping away at him in the second and third rounds where he should be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.

"OSP will be the pick but I like it less"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.

"I'm going to go with Ryan span you guys I've got a good feeling that he's going to KO oin St PR he's a big Power Striker he's very explosive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.

"Fine. I'll, I'll, you're gaslighting me right now. I'm quite sure I picked OSP. You're just lying to me, but you can pick him."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 1 143 of 276 51% 143 of 276 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 106 of 250 42% 106 of 250 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ovince Saint Preux 0 44 of 79 55% 44 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 29 of 80 36% 29 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ovince Saint Preux 1 73 of 140 52% 73 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 55 of 113 48% 55 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 143 of 276 51% 98 of 223 32 of 39 13 of 14 131 of 262 11 of 13 1 of 1
Kennedy Nzechukwu 106 of 250 42% 85 of 213 19 of 35 2 of 2 93 of 235 13 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 26 of 57 45% 10 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kennedy Nzechukwu 22 of 57 38% 14 of 37 6 of 18 2 of 2 22 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ovince Saint Preux 44 of 79 55% 30 of 62 10 of 12 4 of 5 44 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 80 36% 25 of 73 4 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ovince Saint Preux 73 of 140 52% 58 of 123 15 of 17 0 of 0 61 of 126 11 of 13 1 of 1
Kennedy Nzechukwu 55 of 113 48% 46 of 103 9 of 10 0 of 0 43 of 99 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo calls this his most confident pick on the card. Nzechukwu is long, powerful, has solid takedown defense, and is never out of a fight, though he can be gun-shy. Saint Preux is 40, has no chin, and is frustratingly low-volume, rarely letting his hands go. Angelo sees no path to victory for Saint Preux outside a Hail Mary bomb, which is unlikely given his low output. He thinks Nzechukwu will win easily.

"the pick is quite frankly very easy to be Kennedy here and he's my most confident pick on this entire card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by first-round knockout. He believes OSP is past his prime and not motivated, while Nzechukwu is a big favorite for a reason. He expects a quick finish despite Nzechukwu's history of weird outcomes.

by first round knockout
"Give me Kennedy here Kennedy to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, believing OSP is completely washed and on his way out. He details OSP's decline: missing weight, looking flat, and being knocked out in recent fights. He acknowledges Kennedy's chin issues but thinks OSP lacks the power to exploit them. He warns against the minus 500 line but still picks Kennedy.

"I'd go with Kennedy because I really do think OSP is completely washed... he's on the back nine."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Lucrative James sees Kennedy Nzechukwu as a massive favorite and expects him to finish the fight. He notes that OSP has looked washed recently, with poor cardio and chin, and that Kennedy can knock him out on the feet, with elbows, or in the clinch. He dismisses OSP's chances, stating that the only way OSP wins is if Kennedy makes a huge mistake.

Kennedy Nzechukwu by finish
"I think Kennedy's gonna finish this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The host notes that Saint Preux is nearing 41 and fighting a young, hungry fighter in Nzechukwu, who should have speed and power advantages. He expects Nzechukwu to light up Saint Preux early and get a TKO, but mentions that the -500 or -700 odds are too much given the weight class and Saint Preux's experience. He still thinks the under 1.5 rounds should come through easily.

under 1.5 rounds
"I think that will see en zuku light up same prw early and eventually get him out of there by TKO minus 500 orus 700 is a little bit too much for me"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul also picks Kennedy, echoing that OSP is done. He notes Kennedy's physical advantages (size, speed, reach) and OSP's inability to take punches anymore. He calls it an 'apple pie situation' where fading OSP is tempting but warns about Kennedy's own flaws. He still expects Kennedy to win.

"I would definitely take Kenny Nzechukwu in this fight but minus 500 screams... we're fading OSP being so bad."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO, citing OSP's age (40) and recent KO loss to Philipe Lins. He notes Nzechukwu is chinny but has youth and momentum. He dismisses OSP's win over Shogun as controversial and believes Nzechukwu will get the finish.

TKO win
"I'm going to go Nuku gets a TKO win here although he is maybe the chest fighter in UFC history I'm going to trust him to win against ENT St PR in 2024."
LOSS vs Philipe Lins
KO (punches) R1 0:49 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philipe Lins 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 1 18 of 44 40% 18 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philipe Lins 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 1 18 of 44 40% 18 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philipe Lins 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 18 of 44 40% 17 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 38 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philipe Lins 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 18 of 44 40% 17 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 38 4 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Angelo picks Lins because OSP is infuriatingly low-volume, often not letting his hands go and throwing one punch at a time. Lins has power, a BJJ black belt, and showed wrestling in his last fight with four takedowns. Angelo believes Lins will win by simply outworking OSP, who doesn't push the pace. He notes the line movement reflects public agreement.

"I like Felipe to get it done... I just can't pick a guy that doesn't go out there and try to win these fights."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Big Brady is not high on Lins but thinks OSP looks disinterested and has been in terrible fights recently. He notes Lins looked better at light heavyweight in his last fight, while OSP has been knocked out by Tanner Boser. He predicts Lins wins by first-round knockout, but warns against betting the -220 line.

Lins by KO, round 1
"I'm gonna say Lynn's knocks out OSP I'm gonna say knocks him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Cody picks Lins but doesn't love the -200. He details OSP's decline: leg injury, weight-cutting issues, missing weight for the first time in his career, and poor performances. He says Lins is a better technical striker and should stand on the outside and out-volume OSP. He notes Lins has wrestling advantage and is younger with fewer fights. However, he says he needs to see weigh-ins because OSP has to make 205 and Lins has been out with injuries. He says he'll pick Lins but won't bet it.

Cody mentions OSP has 40+ pro fights and his body is broken down. He says Lins is 37 but has less than 20 pro fights. He says he'll pick Lins but doesn't love it.
"I will take lens but you know do you love it minus 200 definitely not could you see yourself losing I could but what am I supposed to do pass on all these chalky spots got a bite down at …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Connor agrees, noting that Lins looked fast and powerful at light heavyweight, with a good boxing game based on straight punches and efficient combinations. He points out that OSP is incredibly passive and will give Lins space to build confidence. Connor also mentions that OSP's recent performances show a lack of confidence and a tendency to back up without offering a counter threat. He sees no reason to pick OSP.

"Yeah, absolutely. See, no reason to pick OSP like Liz looked more than fast enough to be a light heavyweight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Jacob trusts Lins more than OSP because OSP is comfortable being inactive. He thinks the odds at +200 are a bit disrespectful to OSP, as Lins isn't a dominant wrestler or powerful striker. Jacob expects a boring fight with Lins hanging on OSP's hips and winning a decision. He notes both have been knocked out by Tanner Boser, but Lins is the better overall fighter.

"Lins is definitely gonna be picking this matchup... I think these odds are a little bit disrespectful at plus 200."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Lins has a grinding style with good forward pressure and clinch work, which should wear down OSP. OSP's cardio and aggression have declined, and he relies on a fading left hook. Lins can close distance, avoid the hook, and win a decision by controlling the cage and landing takedowns.

Lins wins by decision
"I lean a little bit to the Philippe Lins side... I think he gets his job done and gets the job done via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Paul picks Lins but won't bet it. He notes Lins leaned on wrestling against Prachnio, which could get him in trouble against OSP. He says OSP is not the same guy from 5-6 years ago; he's slow and has slowed down significantly. He says he doesn't see many advantages for OSP and this might be his last fight in the UFC. He says he'll pick Lins but needs to see weigh-ins.

Paul mentions Lins made weight and looked fine against Prachnio but slowed down. He says OSP's speed is gone.
"I'll pick lens as well I don't love it either I definitely won't be betting it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

The MMA Guru picks Philipe Lins, but with hesitation. He notes Lins' losses outside the UFC were to Vadim Nemkov, and he had a good PFL career. He criticizes OSP for taking Shogun to a close decision and getting ragdolled by Andre Petroski. He thinks Lins is younger, more motivated, and hungry after many canceled fights, predicting a decision or late second-round TKO.

decision or late round second round TKO
"I'll go with Felipe Lins if he can make light heavyweight and make it healthily I'll trust him to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Zane sees Lins as a confident, aggressive fighter who looked great at light heavyweight, with good boxing and power. He notes that OSP is passive and often relies on a single moment of power to win, but that ability is diminishing with age. Zane believes Lins will be able to walk OSP down and bully him, as OSP tends to back himself into the cage and abandon his guard. He also mentions that Lins is not giving up size and power to OSP, and that OSP's confidence is low.

"I just got to pick Lynn's to go out there. And as long as he's just, even if all he wants to do is throw punches, as long as he's willing to stock forward and throw punches the way he …"
WIN vs Maurício Rua
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 0 54 of 99 54% 54 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 62 of 112 55% 62 of 112 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 20 of 38 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ovince Saint Preux 0 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ovince Saint Preux 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 54 of 99 54% 18 of 53 11 of 17 25 of 29 54 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 62 of 112 55% 18 of 57 36 of 43 8 of 12 62 of 112 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 20 of 38 52% 4 of 20 6 of 7 10 of 11 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 34 58% 4 of 15 13 of 14 3 of 5 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ovince Saint Preux 21 of 33 63% 8 of 14 4 of 8 9 of 11 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 39 51% 4 of 19 13 of 15 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ovince Saint Preux 13 of 28 46% 6 of 19 1 of 2 6 of 7 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 22 of 39 56% 10 of 23 10 of 14 2 of 2 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.

No bet
"I got to go with oven st prue here but i'm not no no bet i am not making a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.

first round finish
"I gotta go osp here I'm going to say osp wins I'm going to say he kind of runs through shogun whether it's a knockout on the feet whether it's a grounded pound tko whether it's a submission on the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.

"i gotta retain with osb here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.

Daniel mentions he is not comfortable laying -250 on OSP. He considers a small bet on Shogun but does not confirm placing it. He notes OSP by KO at +250 is a decent prop but prefers moneyline.
"I'm picking Shogun to win this fight. I don't hate it man, and if you are gonna bet the fight, I mean with you if you're betting the money line no chance I'm laying chalk on OSP."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.

fight doesn't go to decision; OSP round 1 +200
"same proof decide here he's going to go out there he's going to land on the chin and put him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

"i guess it's a dogger pass situation again for me here like osp hasn't been looking great himself he's super slow it's probably pretty good matchmaking but like are you really gonna have the cajones to pull the trigger on …"
LOSS vs Tanner Boser
KO (punches) R2 2:31 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tanner Boser 1 33 of 72 45% 33 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Ovince Saint Preux 0 9 of 21 42% 12 of 26 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tanner Boser 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 0 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Tanner Boser 1 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Ovince Saint Preux 0 1 of 3 33% 4 of 8 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tanner Boser 33 of 72 45% 10 of 44 10 of 15 13 of 13 31 of 69 1 of 1 1 of 2
Ovince Saint Preux 9 of 21 42% 2 of 13 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tanner Boser 25 of 53 47% 4 of 29 9 of 12 12 of 12 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 8 of 18 44% 2 of 11 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tanner Boser 8 of 19 42% 6 of 15 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 2
Ovince Saint Preux 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux, hoping that Boser's forward pressure will bring out volume in OSP. He notes OSP has more ways to win and hits hard, but his issue is low output. Angelo has a moneyline bet on OSP at plus odds. He likes more/more on the strike line.

"i think tanner boser comes in here brings the pressure puts it on oven saint prue but i'm hoping that that forward pressure and sort of the weirdness in some of his style brings out the volume in osp and …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Big Brady picks Tanner Boser to win by decision, citing his superior striking output (4.21 sig strikes/min) and defense (63%), while OSP has low volume and negative strike differential. He notes OSP's reach advantage but thinks Boser's speed and youth will be key. He worries about judges after Boser's recent close losses but believes Boser should win if he out-lands OSP. He is not confident betting Boser due to judging.

by decision, not confident betting due to judges
"i'm gonna take bose to win by decision i think he's gonna out point osp"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Cody picks Tanner Boser but with low confidence. He notes Boser has lost his last two as a favorite, but those were questionable decisions. He argues Boser has speed and size advantages, and OSP is past his prime, missing weight recently, and looked lethargic. He thinks Boser can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. However, he warns against heavy exposure due to Boser's recent losses and OSP's veteran savvy.

"i gotta go with bozer but i i want to say i've learned my lesson on those last two losses so i don't want too much exposure on him"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Jacob says he has no idea who will win this fight but hopes OSP wins. He picks OSP with heart rather than logic. He would stay away from both guys in DraftKings.

"i have no idea who's gonna win this fight i think it's gonna be a ton of fun i hope uh osp wins you know i like osp nothing against tanner bozer but i think this is gonna be a …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Boser's leg kick is the main ingredient in his wins, and he should establish it against Saint Preux. OSP's cardio issues will surface after the first round, allowing Boser to take over with bigger strikes. Boser will shuck off desperation takedowns and outstrike OSP over 15 minutes. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Boser. OSP's submission threat is there but his top control and wrestling aren't good enough to keep Boser down.

Boser by decision plus 175; fight goes to decision plus 110
"I think bozo will start to take over with you know starting off with that leg kick... I do expect him to go out there and outstrike saint prue over 15 minutes and take home a unanimous decision victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Paul leans toward Tanner Boser, citing speed advantage and OSP's poor performance at heavyweight. He notes OSP missed weight and is 37, with his best days behind him. However, he is not confident because Boser didn't look great against Latifi and has lost two straight as a favorite. He thinks OSP's path is takedowns, but Boser's takedown defense should hold.

"i would lean towards tanner bozer here but he didn't look great against elir letifi so it's not a spot that i really love"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser by first-round KO, citing OSP's hesitancy and declining chin. He notes Boser's anger from his loss to Ilir Latifi and believes he will come out aggressive. He criticizes OSP's grappling and aging, predicting Boser will land combination punches against the cage and finish him early.

first round KO
"i'm going with tanabosa by ko"
LOSS vs Jamahal Hill
TKO (punches) R2 3:37 · UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Dec 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 36 of 72 50% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 0 68 of 128 53% 68 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 21 of 41 51% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Jamahal Hill 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 0 41 of 77 53% 41 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 36 of 72 50% 7 of 36 14 of 17 15 of 19 35 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 68 of 128 53% 39 of 92 23 of 28 6 of 8 62 of 120 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 21 of 41 51% 2 of 17 8 of 10 11 of 14 21 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 27 of 51 52% 7 of 25 15 of 20 5 of 6 27 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 15 of 31 48% 5 of 19 6 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 41 of 77 53% 32 of 67 8 of 8 1 of 2 35 of 69 6 of 8 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux as an underdog, citing Jamahal Hill's unproven level of competition. He notes Hill's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down multiple times by Darko Stosic. He believes OSP's veteran savvy and submission threat will be the difference, predicting OSP will take Hill down and submit him. He acknowledges OSP has been hurt in fights but only knocked out twice in 39 fights.

OSP by submission; Hill's takedown defense suspect; OSP's submission rate 36%
"I'm gonna go with OSP... I think Hill's takedown defense is suspect... I think OSP takes him down I think he's gonna submit him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel is high on Jamahal Hill, calling him one of the brightest light heavyweight prospects with top-five potential. He highlights Hill's exceptional output and volume, noting he can land over 100 strikes in 15 minutes and has a bantamweight-like pace. He praises Hill's get-up game, having gotten up from all six takedowns against Darko Stosic, and his varied striking including jabs, straight lefts, body shots, and kicks. He believes OSP's sparring partner Douglas Usher, a shorter southpaw, is not ideal preparation for Hill's length and reach. He predicts Hill will either knock out OSP or win a dominant decision via volume, similar to Dominick Reyes' win over OSP.

"I think that saturday night is gonna be jamal hill's coming out party I think he's gonna take ovins to a place he likes to call touch him up university and I think he comes out here and I think …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The host picks Jamahal Hill to win, likely by first or second round KO. He believes Hill's diverse striking and size advantage will be a nightmare matchup for OSP, who struggles against bigger, varied strikers. He notes OSP's age and suspect chin, and that Hill's chin-up style is a concern but OSP's counters may not be as effective. He likes Hill at -165 and thinks the line is getting better.

Hill by KO in first or second round; OSP's ground game advantage if fight goes there.
"I do like jamal hill i think he gets it done probably first or second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by TKO in the first or second round, noting that Hill's size and explosiveness will be key against OSP. He believes Hill's youth and fast improvement will allow him to get inside and finish, while OSP has not been KO'd recently but is vulnerable. He acknowledges OSP is a good underdog but sticks with Hill.

method: TKO, round: 1-2
"i think we're going to see him get the job done by tko in the first or second round"
KO (punch) R2 4:07 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 1 33 of 80 41% 33 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alonzo Menifield 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alonzo Menifield 0 11 of 23 47% 13 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
2 Ovince Saint Preux 1 20 of 38 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alonzo Menifield 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 33 of 80 41% 12 of 44 17 of 31 4 of 5 33 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 19 of 40 47% 12 of 31 3 of 5 4 of 4 17 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 13 of 42 30% 7 of 25 6 of 16 0 of 1 13 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 11 of 23 47% 9 of 19 1 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ovince Saint Preux 20 of 38 52% 5 of 19 11 of 15 4 of 4 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 8 of 17 47% 3 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield

Round 1
Kicking up to 205 pounds for the recently rescheduled co-main event, former light heavyweight title challenger and one-off heavyweight St. Preux (24-14, 12-9 UFC) comes to blows with the knockout-minded Menifield (9-1, 2-1 UFC). With a touch of gloves between the two, referee Jason Herzog checks in the contest and it’s on with the show! Menifield races forward with punches and shoots in for a low takedown, but “OSP” shrugs it off and gets Menifield to back off. Menifield lands a hard right hand, and “OSP” responds with a slapping low kick as he plods forward. St. Preux connects with a piercing jab, and Menifield rushes in at him to land some bombs but bounces off the side of his opponent. Menifield crashes in to pursue a body lock, and after stalling out, he backs away. “OSP” lets him have it with a thudding body kick, and he backs away when Menifield tries to counter him. St. Preux winds up with a right hand that nearly makes him topple over, and Menifield slams a right hand into his man’s guard. St. Preux lands a long left hand and backs Menifield away, but “Atomic” comes back at him hard. “OSP” kicks to the body a few more times to halt an advancing Menifield, and he scoots back to let a leg kick ricochet off his shin. A long jab finds its home for St. Preux, and he gets off another body kick as Menifield struggles to find his range. Menifield connects with a right hand that buckles St. Preux’s knees, but he keeps his composure and throws back in the form of some kicks. Menifield lands another left hand, and blocks a sweeping body kick. St. Preux swats him in the face but takes a few power punches as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux

Round 2
Menifield opens the round with a big right hand, and “OSP” backs away before getting a kick up. St. Preux nearly falls over with a looping right hand, and Menifield does not take advantage of it but avoids the zooming strike. Menifield lands a low kick and may have hurt his foot as he stumbles backwards, and “OSP” stands before him and slowly walks him down. St. Preux chips away at him with kicks low and high, and Menifield is once more finding himself backing himself away and circling on the cage wall. St. Preux stings him with two more kicks to the body, and he does not stop throwing them. “OSP” ducks away from a punch and lands a kick that may have glanced off the cup, but the action does not pause as Herzog checks on the fighters. “OSP” scores with a right hand, and he has slowed to landing single power strikes while Menifield swings and misses. Menifield loads up with all he has with a booming right hand, and “OSP” is stumbled and possibly hurt as he falls into the fence.
Menifield charges at him after St. Preux gets his bearings, and a short check left hook out of nowhere puts Menifield’s lights out. Menifield crumbles face-first to the ground, and “OSP” stands still to admire his work, knowing there is nothing more he needs to do in the cage tonight. Wakanda Forever.

The Official Result
Ovince St. Preux def. Alonzo Menifield R2 4:07 via KO (Punch)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Big Brady is confident in Menifield, citing his takedown defense (85%) and power. He believes Menifield has worked on his cardio after gassing against Devin Clark and looks in great shape. He thinks OSP is hittable, low volume, and has a questionable chin. He predicts a first-round knockout but says Menifield is live even if it goes past the first round.

Menifield by knockout, first round
"i'm going to pick minefield to win by first round knockout here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Levi sticks with Ovince Saint Preux despite concerns about a second weight cut in two weeks and a COVID scare. He believes OSP is a much better fighter than Devin Clark, who Menifield lost to, and that OSP's wrestling for MMA is superior. However, he is not confident and expects a close fight that could go three rounds, noting Menifield's power and OSP's tendency to slow down.

Fight goes to decision
"i'm not as confident as i was the first time but i'm not gonna switch my pick i'm going to stick with o vince i think if he can get past this first round not getting knocked out you can …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host picks OSP as a +115 underdog, expecting him to survive the first round and then take over. He notes OSP's experience, durability, and submission threat, while Menifield has cardio issues and is one-dimensional. He predicts a second or third round stoppage via ground and pound or submission.

OSP inside the distance at +220; OSP by submission at +325; OSP by TKO at +715
"i'm taking one speed here i'm going to take him to win by second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The MMA Guru picks Ovince Saint Preux, arguing that OSP has shown durability and avoids getting KO'd despite a perceived weak chin. He believes Menifield's power is overrated and that OSP will take the fight to the ground and secure a submission (von Flue choke) in the first or second round. He references OSP's recent wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk and Tyson Pedro.

submission in first or second round
"i'm gonna go with osp you know i don't think he's there to be ko'd like everyone seems to think he is"
LOSS vs Ben Rothwell
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · May 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Rothwell 0 56 of 110 50% 86 of 142 1 of 3 33% 0 0 5:49
Ovince Saint Preux 1 42 of 82 51% 46 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Rothwell 0 7 of 14 50% 18 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Ovince Saint Preux 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ben Rothwell 0 19 of 41 46% 24 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Ovince Saint Preux 1 13 of 27 48% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Ben Rothwell 0 30 of 55 54% 44 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Ovince Saint Preux 0 20 of 36 55% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Rothwell 56 of 110 50% 37 of 89 15 of 17 4 of 4 40 of 79 14 of 29 2 of 2
Ovince Saint Preux 42 of 82 51% 27 of 62 13 of 15 2 of 5 33 of 70 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Rothwell 7 of 14 50% 3 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ovince Saint Preux 9 of 19 47% 2 of 7 6 of 8 1 of 4 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ben Rothwell 19 of 41 46% 13 of 35 5 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 30 6 of 11 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 13 of 27 48% 6 of 20 6 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ben Rothwell 30 of 55 54% 21 of 44 6 of 8 3 of 3 22 of 37 8 of 18 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 20 of 36 55% 19 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 28 6 of 8 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 11, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady leans with Ben Rothwell as an underdog, believing Rothwell's power and chin give him a good chance to knock out Ovince Saint Preux. He thinks OSP will struggle to take Rothwell down and that the fight will stay on the feet, where Rothwell has the advantage. He acknowledges OSP could win a decision if Rothwell fights poorly, but sees a knockout as more likely and considers betting on Rothwell at plus odds.

Rothwell wins by knockout; considering a bet at +120
"I am thinking about placing a bet on Ben Rothwell especially at those odds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Levi picks OSP, citing his athleticism and speed advantage over Rothwell, who has looked slow since his suspension. He notes OSP's suspect chin and cardio at heavyweight, and says he won't bet him at -140 due to those concerns, but still picks him for the win.

I will not play him at that line with that extra weight with that suspect cardio in that suspect chin
"I Eileen OSP but from a betting perspective I will not play him at that line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

The MMA Guru picks Ben Rothwell, noting that OSP is moving up to heavyweight and his chin won't magically improve. He highlights Rothwell's durability, having taken shots from Junior dos Santos and Blagojevich, and believes Rothwell will smother OSP and finish him in the second round. He also points out that OSP is 37 and has been rocked in recent fights.

TKO in the second round
"I'm gonna go with Ben Rothwell... he's gonna go out there put the pressure on OSP smother him... KO him in the second round."