Career Averages - Maurício Rua
Career Averages - Tyson Pedro
Maurício Rua - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 27 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 27 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 17 of 31 | 54% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 17 of 31 | 54% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady calls this the sketchiest fight on the card and is staying far away from betting. He notes Potieria has power and finishing ability, with most wins in the first round, but is not sold on his UFC caliber. Shogun is washed at 41 and has been for a while. Potieria has a huge hole in takedown defense, but Shogun doesn't wrestle much. He leans towards Potieria by first-round knockout but has no confidence.
Cody picks Ihor Potieria confidently, noting Potieria's power, speed, and youth advantage over an aging Shogun. He says Shogun is past his prime, has poor durability, and is retiring, which historically leads to losses. He thinks Potieria will land something early and put Shogun away. He mentions Shogun's recent performances have been poor, and that Potieria is a limited striker but enough to beat the current Shogun.
Connor agrees with Zane, stating Shogun's prime ended in 2009 and he's been too slow and fragile. He notes Potieria is not very good but not bad enough to lose to Shogun at this point.
Paul picks Ihor Potieria, agreeing with Cody. He says he hopes he's wrong but thinks Potieria will win. He notes Shogun's decline and the retirement announcement curse. He says he won't bet on this fight but picks Potieria. He mentions Shogun's legendary status but says his time is up.
The Guru picks Potieria despite calling him a 'can crusher.' He notes Shogun is 41 and looked awful in recent fights, struggling against Saint Preux. Potieria is young and scrappy, and the Guru trusts the younger fighter to land first. He predicts a first-round TKO for Potieria, though he admits it would be nice to see Shogun win.
Zane picks Potieria because Shogun is too slow and lacks durability. He notes Potieria is a decent athlete with speed and size, and can take shots. He mentions Shogun's recent losses to Paul Craig and OSP show he's done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 54 of 99 | 54% | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 62 of 112 | 55% | 62 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 54 of 99 | 54% | 18 of 53 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 62 of 112 | 55% | 18 of 57 | 36 of 43 | 8 of 12 | 62 of 112 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 38 | 52% | 4 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 11 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 34 | 58% | 4 of 15 | 13 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 21 of 33 | 63% | 8 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 39 | 51% | 4 of 19 | 13 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 22 of 39 | 56% | 10 of 23 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.
Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.
Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.
The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 54 of 88 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 21 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:45 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 33 of 49 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Maurício Rua | 29 of 57 | 50% | 17 of 38 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 6 of 15 | 40% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Maurício Rua | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 15 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 33 | 63% | 14 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 11 |
Big Brady picks Paul Craig to win by first-round knockout. He notes Craig is improving and has a 100% finish rate, while Shogun is on his way out and looked poor in his last fight. He thinks Craig is the better striker now and will finish early.
Daniel picks Shogun as an underdog, citing his one-punch knockout power and experience. He notes Shogun's durability is waning but believes if he avoids an early finish, he can win on the scorecards. He sees Paul Craig's submission threat as less effective against Shogun, who survived Craig's guard in their first fight.
The host picks Paul Craig to win by submission, but is not confident due to Craig's gas tank issues and the line being too high. He thinks Shogun's durability is fading and Craig's jiu-jitsu could get the finish, but recommends passing on betting this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Paul Craig to win by TKO in the first round. He believes Craig's youth will be a huge factor, and that Craig almost finished Shogun in the first fight. He expects Craig to be more explosive and get the finish standing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 54 of 103 | 52% | 78 of 129 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 46 of 100 | 46% | 75 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 24 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 39 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 54 of 103 | 52% | 27 of 72 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 17 | 45 of 91 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 46 of 100 | 46% | 39 of 91 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 16 of 36 | 44% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 13 of 30 | 43% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 15 of 31 | 48% | 7 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 15 of 39 | 38% | 10 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 23 of 36 | 63% | 12 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 18 of 31 | 58% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shogun because he expects him to be the busier fighter and use takedowns, as he did in their previous fights. He acknowledges that Lil Nog has power and could knock Shogun out, especially given Shogun's poor performance against Paul Craig. He calls the fight ugly and says he wouldn't bet it, but leans Shogun by decision.
Daniel leans Shogun because he has beaten Little Nog twice before and can revert to takedowns. He notes both are on the decline but Shogun's low kicks and takedowns should be the difference. He advises passing at the betting window and just enjoying the fight.
Shogun is six years younger and has shown better cardio, going three rounds with younger fighters and even finishing some late. Nogueira has been inactive and finished early in recent fights. Expect a tentative fight with clinching and takedowns, likely going over 1.5 rounds. Shogun should win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Shogun Rua, believing he still has something left, while Nogueira looks damaged and stiff from his career. He notes Nogueira is coming off a KO loss and shows signs of CTE. He predicts Shogun will get a TKO in the second round, but acknowledges both are old and anything can happen.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 51 of 108 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 8:21 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 51 of 99 | 51% | 106 of 160 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 45 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 22 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 31 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 30 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 25 of 66 | 37% | 19 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 16 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 |
| Paul Craig | 51 of 99 | 51% | 30 of 71 | 14 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 39 of 82 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 7 of 24 | 29% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 31 of 58 | 53% | 20 of 41 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 45 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 9 of 24 | 37% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 |
| Paul Craig | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 9 of 18 | 50% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Paul Craig | 10 of 25 | 40% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 62 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:20 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 31 of 44 | 70% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 36 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 1 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 30 of 56 | 53% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 28 |
| Tyson Pedro | 31 of 44 | 70% | 21 of 33 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Tyson Pedro | 30 of 41 | 73% | 20 of 31 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 30 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 14 of 24 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 |
| Tyson Pedro | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 23 of 31 | 74% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 23 of 31 | 74% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 2 | 94 of 173 | 54% | 94 of 174 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 55 of 151 | 36% | 55 of 151 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 1 | 39 of 77 | 50% | 39 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 25 of 69 | 36% | 25 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 38 of 68 | 55% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 27 of 68 | 39% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 1 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 94 of 173 | 54% | 68 of 140 | 16 of 20 | 10 of 13 | 94 of 171 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 55 of 151 | 36% | 48 of 143 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 55 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 39 of 77 | 50% | 28 of 61 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 25 of 69 | 36% | 21 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 38 of 68 | 55% | 26 of 55 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 27 of 68 | 39% | 25 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 17 of 28 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 3 of 14 | 21% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Tyson Pedro - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 33 of 82 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:24 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 27 of 75 | 36% | 16 of 59 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Tyson Pedro | 30 of 60 | 50% | 3 of 29 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 16 | 29 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 10 of 28 | 35% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyson Pedro | 11 of 24 | 45% | 0 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 10 of 30 | 33% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyson Pedro | 14 of 22 | 63% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 13 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 7 of 17 | 41% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Tyson Pedro | 5 of 14 | 35% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.
Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.
Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.
Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.
Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.
The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 1 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Anton Turkalj | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 1 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Anton Turkalj | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 16 of 29 | 55% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anton Turkalj | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 16 of 29 | 55% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anton Turkalj | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Anton Turkalj and has a half-unit bet on him at -103 (basically even money). He notes that Anton's incredible pace could exhaust Tyson Pedro, who gasses hard. Anton has diverse striking and aggressive takedowns. Despite Tyson's power and grappling, Anton's pace should take over as the fight goes on.
Big Brady leans toward Anton Turkalj, noting Pedro's poor cardio and first-round-or-bust style. He thinks Turkalj can survive the first round and take over with takedowns and pressure. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Turkalj, noting that Pedro is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Turkalj's wrestling and pace will wear Pedro down in the later rounds. Cody suggests that the best play might be to bet Turkalj after the first round when his odds might be better.
Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro despite the public leaning towards Turkalj. He is not impressed with Turkalj's skills, calling him tough but unathletic. Levi notes that Pedro is more skilled and has a chip on his shoulder after a poor performance. However, he acknowledges Pedro's history of fading after the first round and says it could be a sweaty fight. He is not laying money on Pedro.
Lucrative James acknowledges that Anton Turkalj has good cardio and a solid chin, but he believes Tyson Pedro has finishing upside early with faster, more sneaky strikes like high kicks. He notes that Pedro's gas tank may be overblown, as he competed into the third round against Modestas Bukauskas. James sees Pedro winning the first round and then needing only one more round to secure a decision, though he expects Turkalj to dominate round three. He picks Pedro against the grain, but his confidence is low, calling it a close fight.
Turkalj is on a two-fight losing streak but showed good wrestling and top pressure in his debut. Pedro has a submission threat but fades in deep waters. Turkalj's takedowns and heavy top pressure should wear on Pedro, who lacks the explosivity of Turkalj's previous opponent. Turkalj should win by decision.
Paul picks Turkalj, agreeing that Pedro has never impressed him and that Turkalj's wrestling and cardio should be the difference. He notes that Pedro's training at City Kickboxing might help, but he's not buying into a one-camp transformation. Paul sees Turkalj securing takedowns and controlling the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Anton Turkalj, stating that Turkalj is not good. He notes that Pedro's grappling is underrated, with submissions over Saparbek Safarov and Paul Craig, and a win over Khalil Rountree on the ground. Turkalj's only chance is grappling, but Pedro's ground game is the best part of his game. He believes Pedro will win, likely by submission or knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 45 of 81 | 55% | 54 of 90 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 44 of 109 | 40% | 56 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 19 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 45 of 81 | 55% | 18 of 45 | 20 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 39 of 74 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Tyson Pedro | 44 of 109 | 40% | 25 of 88 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 34 of 95 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 8 of 19 | 42% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Tyson Pedro | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 18 of 25 | 72% | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyson Pedro | 11 of 35 | 31% | 3 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 19 of 37 | 51% | 8 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyson Pedro | 23 of 49 | 46% | 16 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 37 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pedro (-240), Bukauskas (+200)
Round 1
The prelims conclude with a banger at 205 pounds, as Australia’s own Pedro (9-3, 5-3 UFC) welcomes back Bukauskas (13-5, 1-3 UFC) to the organization after a year and so back in Cage Warriors. With 20 total finishes in their 22 triumphs, referee Steve Perceval will almost certainly be needed while the judges may not. The match begins with a glove touch, and Bukauskas opens up with a spinning wheel kick. Pedro is well out of the way before that reaches him, and he backs off when Bukauskas hurls a big right hand at him. Pedro absorbs a stiff leg kick, and he looks for a few jabs. Bukauskas catches him on the way in with a right hand and swats away a push kick that comes his way, and he whips a high kick up that is blocked. Pedro stalks him down and scores a left hand, but Bukauskas rings his bell with a heavy left hook. Bukauskas spins with a back kick from up close, and Pedro is able to close in and evade it. The Aussie walks forward with a body kick, and he clinches up with his man while grinning like a banshee. Pedro appears to land a knee to the cup, but it goes uncalled as Pedro trips Bukauskas down to the mat. Landing in side control, Pedro slams down a short elbow to show he means business. Pedro attempts to pass guard, but Bukauskas is able to keep him from doing so and turn to his knees. Pedro holds him down, and he drops down with a guillotine choke and rolls Bukauskas over to his back. Pedro stands back up and somersaults to try to pass guard, but Bukauskas stands back up. They collide with punches, and Bukauskas appears no worse for wear after taking a left on the temple. Pedro fires off a kick to the ribcage, and he leans in to punch but Bukauskas slides out of the way. Bukauskas winds up with an overhand right, and Pedro times a short left counter. Bukauskas spins with a back kick that pushes Pedro back, and he tags Pedro as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Round 2
The second round opens with a stomping low kick to the knee from the Lithuanian, and Pedro is walking him down but does not appear to have the same steam on his strikes. Bukauskas dips a punch and swings a left hand over the top, and he slaps a kick in the side. Pedro dodges a one-two and lumbers forward, getting off a short left hand to the chest before escaping. Pedro intercepts a low kick to reach a left hand over the top, and he kicks the side and just avoids a sweeping left hook. Pedro slaps a kick low and backs off when Bukauskas advances to throw bombs. Bukauskas strides ahead, and a right hand lands at the very edge of it and snaps his foe’s head back. Pedro releases a front kick, and the ball of his foot crashes straight into the cup. Bukauskas collapses to the mat as Perceval calls time, and it is unintentional and the latter declares it as such. After about 45 seconds, Bukauskas is remarkably good to go, and Pedro reintroduces himself with three kicks to the side that are not too low. Bukauskas swats a left hook on the jaw, and Pedro continues to wade forward despite eating strikes. Pedro scores a left and then looses a kick to the other side of the body, and he pushes forward to tie his man up. Bukauskas turns him around as they slowly jockey for position, and he whiffs on a spinning back elbow that Pedro ducks. Bukauskas gets in a left hook as he comes forward, and Pedro belts him in the ribs with a kick. A missed spinning wheel kick from “The Baltic Gladiator” punctuates the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
The light heavyweights touch ‘em up to begin the final round, much to the surprise of some. Pedro strikes first in the period with a half-hearted kick to the liver, and he slides back as Bukauskas spins with an inaccurate wheel kick. Pedro pushes out a front kick with his right leg and a body kick with his left, keeping his opponent at bay. Pedro intercepts an advancing Bukauskas with a short left hook, and he sees a series of punches coming and misses. Pedro ducks them and pushes forward into a clinch, and he whips a kick that brushes past the shoulders of his opponent. Bukauskas strings two punches together, missing on a third, as Pedro backs away in time. They kick at the same time, and Pedro hops back. “The Baltic Gladiator” connects with an overhand right, and Pedro replies with a teep kick to the sternum. Bukauskas punches and attempts a standing vertical elbow, and a small cut has developed on the bridge of the Aussie’s nose. Pedro lands a kick to the ribs, prompting Bukauskas into action. As Bukauskas lets go with his hands, Pedro pushes through them to shove Bukauskas back to the wire. Bukauskas breaks off, absorbs a kick to the chest and backs away as Pedro swarms him with labored punches. Pedro grabs hold of his man to slow him down, and Bukauskas lifts up a knee to the midsection. Bukauskas knees the hip and then thigh as his gas tank betrays him, and he connects with one on the cup. Pedro groans, and they do not pause. Instead, they separate, and Bukauskas attacks with all his might. Spinning with an elbow and throwing everything he has into one final, mostly inaccurate, barrage, but it is a good look while Pedro runs away. The dreadful slog of a fight comes to a merciful conclusion, and it could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Tyson Pedro via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tyson Pedro despite acknowledging the line movement from -1000 to -250, which he attributes to sharp bettors. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is the better striker with solid takedown defense, but Pedro's grappling and power could be decisive. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Pedro at the current odds, though he may include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.
Big Brady is not a fan of either fighter but thinks Pedro has enough power to knock out Bukauskas, who has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Bukauskas to be winning until he gets caught. He predicts a first-round knockout for Pedro but says he's staying away from betting.
Cody picks Pedro but is not confident due to the -240 price and Pedro's untested competition since returning. He notes Pedro's striking looks improved and his grappling may have gotten better during time off. He thinks Bukauskas is one-dimensional and Pedro can stay outside and be aggressive. However, he calls Pedro a fraud and won't bet him.
Connor picks Pedro, believing that his improved feinting will be enough to confuse Bukauskas and allow Pedro to pick up wins he should be getting. He thinks Pedro's feints will throw a huge wrench in Bukauskas's game, as Bukauskas tends to bite on feints and is not good at responding to pressure. Connor acknowledges that Pedro hasn't faced a decent boxer yet, but he thinks the feints are a significant improvement.
Bukauskas is the better technical striker and has shown he can be competitive at UFC level (close fight with Mihajlovic). Pedro's wins over Villanueva and Hunsucker are over low-level competition. Pedro's wrestling is unimpressive and he gassed against Shogun. Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and outpoint Pedro. The odds opened at -1000 for Pedro, creating value on Bukauskas at +600. Durability is a slight concern but Bukauskas should win a decision.
Paul picks Pedro but dislikes the -240 line. He notes Pedro has never landed a takedown in the UFC and his wins are over low-level opponents. He thinks Bukauskas could pull an upset but Pedro is the official pick. He won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Modestas Bukauskas, noting Bukauskas's recent KO win but concerns about his chin and taking the fight on short notice. He believes Pedro's leg kicks and confidence will lead to a first-round KO, as Bukauskas has been chinned before.
Zane picks Bukauskas because he is a calm fighter who can keep up a decent pace and is more reliable in deep waters than Pedro, who tends to blow up when he can't crush someone early. He notes that Bukauskas is capable of staying in the fight and that Pedro's improvements (like feints) haven't been tested against decent opponents. However, he is hesitant because Bukauskas is not a fighter who creates cracks and wedges them open; he is too patient and passive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo refuses to make a moneyline pick due to the absurd odds (Tyson Pedro at -800). He calls the odds 'insane' and 'stupid,' noting that Pedro is 2-3 in his last five with two stoppage losses, while Hunsucker lost to heavy hitters Justin Tafa and Tai Tuivasa. He says Tyson probably wins but advises against betting the moneyline. Instead, he recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and the under on rounds, as he expects a knockout.
Big Brady is confident in Tyson Pedro. He notes that Harry Hunsucker has poor skills and was easily taken down and finished by Jared Vanderaa. Pedro is a big favorite and has the advantage everywhere, especially on the ground with good ground and pound and submissions. Brady expects Pedro to take Hunsucker down and finish him in the first round by ground and pound. He is a fan of Hunsucker but acknowledges the skill gap.
Cody picks Pedro, emphasizing Hunsucker's poor competition and lack of durability. He thinks Pedro can win by leg kicks or takedowns, but warns about the banana peel pricing. He mentions a submission prop as a value play.
Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro to finish Harry Hunsucker in the first round. He jokes about Hunsucker's name and says Pedro will run the train on him. Levi is not sold on Pedro long-term but believes Hunsucker is not the guy to expose him. He expects a quick finish and notes that the under 1.5 rounds line is heavily juiced.
Pedro should win easily as Hunsucker is one of the worst fighters in the UFC, but the -750 price is terrible value. The host prefers betting the under 1.5 rounds or taking a small stab on Hunsucker by round 1 KO at +2200. He includes the under 1.5 in a four-leg parlay.
Paul picks Pedro, calling Hunsucker a 'cupcake matchup'. He notes Pedro's path to victory via leg kicks or takedowns, but acknowledges the -800 line offers no value. He mentions he put $40 on Hunsucker by KO at 25-1 as a small flier.
The Guru predicts Tyson Pedro wins by kimura submission in round two. He describes Pedro throwing half kicks at range, dodging Hunsucker's wild onslaughts, and landing jabs and teeps. He sees Pedro taking Hunsucker down in round two, taking side control, and locking in the kimura. He notes that the kimura is Pedro's favorite submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 1 | 22 of 29 | 75% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 1 | 22 of 29 | 75% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 22 of 29 | 75% | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ike Villanueva | 4 of 22 | 18% | 2 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 22 of 29 | 75% | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ike Villanueva | 4 of 22 | 18% | 2 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tyson Pedro, believing he can get takedowns and win via grappling. He notes Villanueva has zero leg kick defense and only one takedown attempt against him in the UFC. However, he says the odds are crazy (Pedro almost -500) and he will watch the scales due to Pedro's multi-year layoff. He warns that if Pedro can't get takedowns, he'll get lit up.
Big Brady picks Tyson Pedro to win by knockout in the first round, citing Villanueva's poor chin and defensive liabilities. He notes that Villanueva has been finished many times and has terrible striking defense. Despite Pedro's long layoff, he expects Pedro to finish early, either by knockout or submission.
Cody picks Pedro, calling it a setup fight. He notes Pedro's submission skills and Villanueva's poor record. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He suggests Pedro inside the distance as a better bet than the moneyline.
The host picks Tyson Pedro to win, including him in his quick picks. He also includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He trusts Pedro more than Dean Barry.
Paul agrees, noting Pedro's submission wins aged well and Villanueva's inability to grapple. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He questions the price but expects Pedro to win.
The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He acknowledges Pedro's history of poor decision-making and long layoff, but believes he is the better technical fighter. He notes Villanueva has power but is terrible overall. He predicts both will have shaky moments on the feet, then Pedro will get a takedown and finish with an armbar. He references Pedro's past fights where he hurt opponents but then shot bad takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 62 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:20 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 31 of 44 | 70% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 36 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 1 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 30 of 56 | 53% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 28 |
| Tyson Pedro | 31 of 44 | 70% | 21 of 33 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Tyson Pedro | 30 of 41 | 73% | 20 of 31 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 30 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 14 of 24 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 |
| Tyson Pedro | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Tyson Pedro | 1 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Tyson Pedro | 1 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Tyson Pedro | 9 of 12 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Tyson Pedro | 9 of 12 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Saparbeg Safarov | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Saparbeg Safarov | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 12 of 23 | 52% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Saparbeg Safarov | 8 of 22 | 36% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 14 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 12 of 23 | 52% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Saparbeg Safarov | 8 of 22 | 36% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 14 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
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