UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa Next Fight
Age 44
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Maurício Rua
3.57 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.79 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.01 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
49.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tyson Pedro
2.9 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
2.39 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Maurício Rua - Fight History
LOSS vs Ihor Potieria
TKO (punches) R1 4:05 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Maurício Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Maurício Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Big Brady calls this the sketchiest fight on the card and is staying far away from betting. He notes Potieria has power and finishing ability, with most wins in the first round, but is not sold on his UFC caliber. Shogun is washed at 41 and has been for a while. Potieria has a huge hole in takedown defense, but Shogun doesn't wrestle much. He leans towards Potieria by first-round knockout but has no confidence.

"pateria first found knockout for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody picks Ihor Potieria confidently, noting Potieria's power, speed, and youth advantage over an aging Shogun. He says Shogun is past his prime, has poor durability, and is retiring, which historically leads to losses. He thinks Potieria will land something early and put Shogun away. He mentions Shogun's recent performances have been poor, and that Potieria is a limited striker but enough to beat the current Shogun.

mentions Shogun's retirement announcement as a negative factor
"I think he's going to land something he's going to put him away he showed in that sadolski fight on the contender series that he absolutely does have good power"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Connor agrees with Zane, stating Shogun's prime ended in 2009 and he's been too slow and fragile. He notes Potieria is not very good but not bad enough to lose to Shogun at this point.

"He's a decent athlete with speed and size for the division."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul picks Ihor Potieria, agreeing with Cody. He says he hopes he's wrong but thinks Potieria will win. He notes Shogun's decline and the retirement announcement curse. He says he won't bet on this fight but picks Potieria. He mentions Shogun's legendary status but says his time is up.

not betting on this fight
"I hate to say I agree with you and I'm not even really going to add anything to it I hope I'm wrong I'm picking ihor I won't be betting on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

The Guru picks Potieria despite calling him a 'can crusher.' He notes Shogun is 41 and looked awful in recent fights, struggling against Saint Preux. Potieria is young and scrappy, and the Guru trusts the younger fighter to land first. He predicts a first-round TKO for Potieria, though he admits it would be nice to see Shogun win.

TKO in first round
"I'm going with Igor pateria I think you'll find the TKO on Shogun Shogun looks awful in his last few fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Zane picks Potieria because Shogun is too slow and lacks durability. He notes Potieria is a decent athlete with speed and size, and can take shots. He mentions Shogun's recent losses to Paul Craig and OSP show he's done.

"You got to pick him because you can't pick Shogun anymore."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 0 54 of 99 54% 54 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 62 of 112 55% 62 of 112 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 20 of 38 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ovince Saint Preux 0 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ovince Saint Preux 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 54 of 99 54% 18 of 53 11 of 17 25 of 29 54 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 62 of 112 55% 18 of 57 36 of 43 8 of 12 62 of 112 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 20 of 38 52% 4 of 20 6 of 7 10 of 11 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 34 58% 4 of 15 13 of 14 3 of 5 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ovince Saint Preux 21 of 33 63% 8 of 14 4 of 8 9 of 11 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 39 51% 4 of 19 13 of 15 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ovince Saint Preux 13 of 28 46% 6 of 19 1 of 2 6 of 7 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 22 of 39 56% 10 of 23 10 of 14 2 of 2 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.

No bet
"I got to go with oven st prue here but i'm not no no bet i am not making a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.

first round finish
"I gotta go osp here I'm going to say osp wins I'm going to say he kind of runs through shogun whether it's a knockout on the feet whether it's a grounded pound tko whether it's a submission on the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.

"i gotta retain with osb here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.

Daniel mentions he is not comfortable laying -250 on OSP. He considers a small bet on Shogun but does not confirm placing it. He notes OSP by KO at +250 is a decent prop but prefers moneyline.
"I'm picking Shogun to win this fight. I don't hate it man, and if you are gonna bet the fight, I mean with you if you're betting the money line no chance I'm laying chalk on OSP."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.

fight doesn't go to decision; OSP round 1 +200
"same proof decide here he's going to go out there he's going to land on the chin and put him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

"i guess it's a dogger pass situation again for me here like osp hasn't been looking great himself he's super slow it's probably pretty good matchmaking but like are you really gonna have the cajones to pull the trigger on …"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
TKO (submission to punches) R2 3:36 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Maurício Rua 0 29 of 57 50% 54 of 88 4 of 8 50% 0 1 3:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 6 of 15 40% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Maurício Rua 0 8 of 24 33% 21 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:45
2 Paul Craig 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 21 of 33 63% 33 of 49 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 10 of 28 35% 6 of 22 2 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 2
Maurício Rua 29 of 57 50% 17 of 38 4 of 9 8 of 10 16 of 35 4 of 11 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 6 of 15 40% 3 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Maurício Rua 8 of 24 33% 3 of 15 1 of 4 4 of 5 5 of 15 3 of 9 0 of 0
2 Paul Craig 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 33 63% 14 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 5 11 of 20 1 of 2 9 of 11
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Big Brady picks Paul Craig to win by first-round knockout. He notes Craig is improving and has a 100% finish rate, while Shogun is on his way out and looked poor in his last fight. He thinks Craig is the better striker now and will finish early.

"i'm going to say paul craig knocks out shogun in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel picks Shogun as an underdog, citing his one-punch knockout power and experience. He notes Shogun's durability is waning but believes if he avoids an early finish, he can win on the scorecards. He sees Paul Craig's submission threat as less effective against Shogun, who survived Craig's guard in their first fight.

knockout
"i'm going to pick him to win outright and i think at the betting window it is a dogger pass situation i'm not going to disrespect the legend i'm gonna go with mauricio shogun hua to knock out paul craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The host picks Paul Craig to win by submission, but is not confident due to Craig's gas tank issues and the line being too high. He thinks Shogun's durability is fading and Craig's jiu-jitsu could get the finish, but recommends passing on betting this fight.

"I'm going to go with Paul Craig I'm going to go with the youth um I'm going to go with the potential of that Jiu-Jitsu"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The MMA Guru picks Paul Craig to win by TKO in the first round. He believes Craig's youth will be a huge factor, and that Craig almost finished Shogun in the first fight. He expects Craig to be more explosive and get the finish standing.

first round tko
"i think he'll get the job done against shogun hua by tko in the first round"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 0 54 of 103 52% 78 of 129 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:57
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 46 of 100 46% 75 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 16 of 36 44% 24 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:29
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 13 of 30 43% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Maurício Rua 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 15 of 39 38% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
3 Maurício Rua 0 23 of 36 63% 39 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 54 of 103 52% 27 of 72 11 of 14 16 of 17 45 of 91 6 of 6 3 of 6
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 46 of 100 46% 39 of 91 7 of 9 0 of 0 41 of 95 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 16 of 36 44% 8 of 26 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 13 of 30 43% 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 5 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 15 of 39 38% 10 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 34 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Maurício Rua 23 of 36 63% 12 of 24 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 6
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 18 of 31 58% 16 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Big Brady picks Shogun because he expects him to be the busier fighter and use takedowns, as he did in their previous fights. He acknowledges that Lil Nog has power and could knock Shogun out, especially given Shogun's poor performance against Paul Craig. He calls the fight ugly and says he wouldn't bet it, but leans Shogun by decision.

Shogun by decision; if betting, take a shot on Lil Nog by KO
"I'm gonna go with shogun here you know just because he's going to be the busier fighter the more active fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel leans Shogun because he has beaten Little Nog twice before and can revert to takedowns. He notes both are on the decline but Shogun's low kicks and takedowns should be the difference. He advises passing at the betting window and just enjoying the fight.

pass at the betting window
"i'm a lean with shogun he's beat him twice before he knows what he's got to do and he can always revert back to the takedowns to get it done so i'ma lean with shogun here but at the betting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Shogun is six years younger and has shown better cardio, going three rounds with younger fighters and even finishing some late. Nogueira has been inactive and finished early in recent fights. Expect a tentative fight with clinching and takedowns, likely going over 1.5 rounds. Shogun should win by decision or late stoppage.

Over 1.5 rounds (-125)
"i like shogun to win this fight by decision or even third round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

The MMA Guru picks Shogun Rua, believing he still has something left, while Nogueira looks damaged and stiff from his career. He notes Nogueira is coming off a KO loss and shows signs of CTE. He predicts Shogun will get a TKO in the second round, but acknowledges both are old and anything can happen.

TKO in the second round
"I think Shogun gets him in the second round by TKO."
LOSS vs Paul Craig
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 0 25 of 66 37% 51 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 8:21
Paul Craig 0 51 of 99 51% 106 of 160 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 7 of 24 29% 14 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:24
Paul Craig 0 31 of 58 53% 45 of 72 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:05
2 Maurício Rua 0 9 of 24 37% 22 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Paul Craig 0 10 of 16 62% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:20
Paul Craig 0 10 of 25 40% 30 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 25 of 66 37% 19 of 57 1 of 2 5 of 7 16 of 48 1 of 1 8 of 17
Paul Craig 51 of 99 51% 30 of 71 14 of 20 7 of 8 39 of 82 9 of 13 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 7 of 24 29% 6 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paul Craig 31 of 58 53% 20 of 41 8 of 13 3 of 4 22 of 45 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 9 of 24 37% 8 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 5 of 11
Paul Craig 10 of 16 62% 6 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Maurício Rua 9 of 18 50% 5 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 6
Paul Craig 10 of 25 40% 4 of 19 3 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 2
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
TKO (punches) R3 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 1 30 of 56 53% 62 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:20
Tyson Pedro 0 31 of 44 70% 36 of 49 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 41 73% 35 of 46 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
2 Maurício Rua 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:33
Tyson Pedro 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Tyson Pedro 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 30 of 56 53% 23 of 45 2 of 3 5 of 8 12 of 26 1 of 2 17 of 28
Tyson Pedro 31 of 44 70% 21 of 33 9 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 33 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 10 of 21 47% 6 of 15 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 30 of 41 73% 20 of 31 9 of 9 1 of 1 20 of 30 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 6 of 11 54% 4 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7
Tyson Pedro 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 14 of 24 58% 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 20
Tyson Pedro 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
KO (elbow and punches) R1 1:29 · UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Jul 22, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 1 23 of 31 74% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 1 23 of 31 74% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 4 of 12 33% 0 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 23 of 31 74% 21 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 2 23 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 4 of 12 33% 0 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 23 of 31 74% 21 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 2 23 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Gian Villante
TKO (head kick and punches) R3 0:59 · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Mar 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 2 94 of 173 54% 94 of 174 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:04
Gian Villante 0 55 of 151 36% 55 of 151 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 1 39 of 77 50% 39 of 77 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:00
Gian Villante 0 25 of 69 36% 25 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Maurício Rua 0 38 of 68 55% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Gian Villante 0 27 of 68 39% 27 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gian Villante 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 94 of 173 54% 68 of 140 16 of 20 10 of 13 94 of 171 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 55 of 151 36% 48 of 143 3 of 4 4 of 4 55 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 39 of 77 50% 28 of 61 6 of 9 5 of 7 39 of 75 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 25 of 69 36% 21 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 38 of 68 55% 26 of 55 7 of 7 5 of 6 38 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gian Villante 27 of 68 39% 25 of 66 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 17 of 28 60% 14 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gian Villante 3 of 14 21% 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro - Fight History
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
WIN vs Anton Turkalj
KO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Angelo picks Anton Turkalj and has a half-unit bet on him at -103 (basically even money). He notes that Anton's incredible pace could exhaust Tyson Pedro, who gasses hard. Anton has diverse striking and aggressive takedowns. Despite Tyson's power and grappling, Anton's pace should take over as the fight goes on.

Half unit bet at -103
"I like Anton here I've got a small half a unit bet on him at minus 103 that's basically even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady leans toward Anton Turkalj, noting Pedro's poor cardio and first-round-or-bust style. He thinks Turkalj can survive the first round and take over with takedowns and pressure. He predicts a second-round submission.

live bet on Turkalj if Pedro wins first round
"I'll say he survives the first round and gets a second round sub here turkolly second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody picks Turkalj, noting that Pedro is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Turkalj's wrestling and pace will wear Pedro down in the later rounds. Cody suggests that the best play might be to bet Turkalj after the first round when his odds might be better.

"he's still the pick I'm not chasing any value here he's the pick but best suited to probably just now bet him after the first round when you might be able to get that plus money back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro despite the public leaning towards Turkalj. He is not impressed with Turkalj's skills, calling him tough but unathletic. Levi notes that Pedro is more skilled and has a chip on his shoulder after a poor performance. However, he acknowledges Pedro's history of fading after the first round and says it could be a sweaty fight. He is not laying money on Pedro.

Levi says the line is a pick'em and he is not laying it because Pedro has burned people before.
"I'm gonna pick Tyson Pedro to win this fight and I think Tyson Pedro would have been a bigger favorite had that last fight not taken place."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Lucrative James acknowledges that Anton Turkalj has good cardio and a solid chin, but he believes Tyson Pedro has finishing upside early with faster, more sneaky strikes like high kicks. He notes that Pedro's gas tank may be overblown, as he competed into the third round against Modestas Bukauskas. James sees Pedro winning the first round and then needing only one more round to secure a decision, though he expects Turkalj to dominate round three. He picks Pedro against the grain, but his confidence is low, calling it a close fight.

Mentions looking at Anton Turkalj round three finish prop, but no bet confirmed.
"I'm actually going to pick Tyson Pedro in this fight... I'm gonna go against the grain I know everyone's on Turkish I'm gonna say Pedro gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Turkalj is on a two-fight losing streak but showed good wrestling and top pressure in his debut. Pedro has a submission threat but fades in deep waters. Turkalj's takedowns and heavy top pressure should wear on Pedro, who lacks the explosivity of Turkalj's previous opponent. Turkalj should win by decision.

"give me turkolly here and I'm going to take to college win by a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul picks Turkalj, agreeing that Pedro has never impressed him and that Turkalj's wrestling and cardio should be the difference. He notes that Pedro's training at City Kickboxing might help, but he's not buying into a one-camp transformation. Paul sees Turkalj securing takedowns and controlling the fight.

"is the pick for me as well I've never really been a Tyson pager guy either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Anton Turkalj, stating that Turkalj is not good. He notes that Pedro's grappling is underrated, with submissions over Saparbek Safarov and Paul Craig, and a win over Khalil Rountree on the ground. Turkalj's only chance is grappling, but Pedro's ground game is the best part of his game. He believes Pedro will win, likely by submission or knockout.

"Tyson Pedro's gonna win this fight"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 45 of 81 55% 54 of 90 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:01
Tyson Pedro 0 44 of 109 40% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 8 of 19 42% 10 of 21 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:46
Tyson Pedro 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 18 of 25 72% 19 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 35 31% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 19 of 37 51% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Tyson Pedro 0 23 of 49 46% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 45 of 81 55% 18 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 9 39 of 74 5 of 6 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 44 of 109 40% 25 of 88 12 of 13 7 of 8 34 of 95 10 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 8 of 19 42% 5 of 12 2 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 18 of 25 72% 5 of 9 8 of 9 5 of 7 18 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 35 31% 3 of 27 5 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 19 of 37 51% 8 of 24 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 32 5 of 5 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 23 of 49 46% 16 of 42 5 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 9 of 12 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Tyson Pedro
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pedro (-240), Bukauskas (+200)

Round 1
The prelims conclude with a banger at 205 pounds, as Australia’s own Pedro (9-3, 5-3 UFC) welcomes back Bukauskas (13-5, 1-3 UFC) to the organization after a year and so back in Cage Warriors. With 20 total finishes in their 22 triumphs, referee Steve Perceval will almost certainly be needed while the judges may not. The match begins with a glove touch, and Bukauskas opens up with a spinning wheel kick. Pedro is well out of the way before that reaches him, and he backs off when Bukauskas hurls a big right hand at him. Pedro absorbs a stiff leg kick, and he looks for a few jabs. Bukauskas catches him on the way in with a right hand and swats away a push kick that comes his way, and he whips a high kick up that is blocked. Pedro stalks him down and scores a left hand, but Bukauskas rings his bell with a heavy left hook. Bukauskas spins with a back kick from up close, and Pedro is able to close in and evade it. The Aussie walks forward with a body kick, and he clinches up with his man while grinning like a banshee. Pedro appears to land a knee to the cup, but it goes uncalled as Pedro trips Bukauskas down to the mat. Landing in side control, Pedro slams down a short elbow to show he means business. Pedro attempts to pass guard, but Bukauskas is able to keep him from doing so and turn to his knees. Pedro holds him down, and he drops down with a guillotine choke and rolls Bukauskas over to his back. Pedro stands back up and somersaults to try to pass guard, but Bukauskas stands back up. They collide with punches, and Bukauskas appears no worse for wear after taking a left on the temple. Pedro fires off a kick to the ribcage, and he leans in to punch but Bukauskas slides out of the way. Bukauskas winds up with an overhand right, and Pedro times a short left counter. Bukauskas spins with a back kick that pushes Pedro back, and he tags Pedro as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pedro

Round 2
The second round opens with a stomping low kick to the knee from the Lithuanian, and Pedro is walking him down but does not appear to have the same steam on his strikes. Bukauskas dips a punch and swings a left hand over the top, and he slaps a kick in the side. Pedro dodges a one-two and lumbers forward, getting off a short left hand to the chest before escaping. Pedro intercepts a low kick to reach a left hand over the top, and he kicks the side and just avoids a sweeping left hook. Pedro slaps a kick low and backs off when Bukauskas advances to throw bombs. Bukauskas strides ahead, and a right hand lands at the very edge of it and snaps his foe’s head back. Pedro releases a front kick, and the ball of his foot crashes straight into the cup. Bukauskas collapses to the mat as Perceval calls time, and it is unintentional and the latter declares it as such. After about 45 seconds, Bukauskas is remarkably good to go, and Pedro reintroduces himself with three kicks to the side that are not too low. Bukauskas swats a left hook on the jaw, and Pedro continues to wade forward despite eating strikes. Pedro scores a left and then looses a kick to the other side of the body, and he pushes forward to tie his man up. Bukauskas turns him around as they slowly jockey for position, and he whiffs on a spinning back elbow that Pedro ducks. Bukauskas gets in a left hook as he comes forward, and Pedro belts him in the ribs with a kick. A missed spinning wheel kick from “The Baltic Gladiator” punctuates the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
The light heavyweights touch ‘em up to begin the final round, much to the surprise of some. Pedro strikes first in the period with a half-hearted kick to the liver, and he slides back as Bukauskas spins with an inaccurate wheel kick. Pedro pushes out a front kick with his right leg and a body kick with his left, keeping his opponent at bay. Pedro intercepts an advancing Bukauskas with a short left hook, and he sees a series of punches coming and misses. Pedro ducks them and pushes forward into a clinch, and he whips a kick that brushes past the shoulders of his opponent. Bukauskas strings two punches together, missing on a third, as Pedro backs away in time. They kick at the same time, and Pedro hops back. “The Baltic Gladiator” connects with an overhand right, and Pedro replies with a teep kick to the sternum. Bukauskas punches and attempts a standing vertical elbow, and a small cut has developed on the bridge of the Aussie’s nose. Pedro lands a kick to the ribs, prompting Bukauskas into action. As Bukauskas lets go with his hands, Pedro pushes through them to shove Bukauskas back to the wire. Bukauskas breaks off, absorbs a kick to the chest and backs away as Pedro swarms him with labored punches. Pedro grabs hold of his man to slow him down, and Bukauskas lifts up a knee to the midsection. Bukauskas knees the hip and then thigh as his gas tank betrays him, and he connects with one on the cup. Pedro groans, and they do not pause. Instead, they separate, and Bukauskas attacks with all his might. Spinning with an elbow and throwing everything he has into one final, mostly inaccurate, barrage, but it is a good look while Pedro runs away. The dreadful slog of a fight comes to a merciful conclusion, and it could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Tyson Pedro via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro despite acknowledging the line movement from -1000 to -250, which he attributes to sharp bettors. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is the better striker with solid takedown defense, but Pedro's grappling and power could be decisive. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Pedro at the current odds, though he may include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

May include in Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry
"I'm still picking Pedro here the line movement again is from the Sharks not from the public"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady is not a fan of either fighter but thinks Pedro has enough power to knock out Bukauskas, who has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Bukauskas to be winning until he gets caught. He predicts a first-round knockout for Pedro but says he's staying away from betting.

first round knockout
"I think Pedro knocks him out at some point ... I'll say he does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro but is not confident due to the -240 price and Pedro's untested competition since returning. He notes Pedro's striking looks improved and his grappling may have gotten better during time off. He thinks Bukauskas is one-dimensional and Pedro can stay outside and be aggressive. However, he calls Pedro a fraud and won't bet him.

"I'll pick Pedro for this purposes of picking but like I I I think this guy's a fraud"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Connor picks Pedro, believing that his improved feinting will be enough to confuse Bukauskas and allow Pedro to pick up wins he should be getting. He thinks Pedro's feints will throw a huge wrench in Bukauskas's game, as Bukauskas tends to bite on feints and is not good at responding to pressure. Connor acknowledges that Pedro hasn't faced a decent boxer yet, but he thinks the feints are a significant improvement.

"I think that the faints are probably enough. They're enough to get Pedro into the middle into the middle area of light heavyweight that he should be occupying."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Bukauskas is the better technical striker and has shown he can be competitive at UFC level (close fight with Mihajlovic). Pedro's wins over Villanueva and Hunsucker are over low-level competition. Pedro's wrestling is unimpressive and he gassed against Shogun. Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and outpoint Pedro. The odds opened at -1000 for Pedro, creating value on Bukauskas at +600. Durability is a slight concern but Bukauskas should win a decision.

"I think you're getting a damn good price tag on probably the better fighter here in bukowsk is but a lot of people don't want to see that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul picks Pedro but dislikes the -240 line. He notes Pedro has never landed a takedown in the UFC and his wins are over low-level opponents. He thinks Bukauskas could pull an upset but Pedro is the official pick. He won't bet it.

"I don't love betting him at minus 240"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Modestas Bukauskas, noting Bukauskas's recent KO win but concerns about his chin and taking the fight on short notice. He believes Pedro's leg kicks and confidence will lead to a first-round KO, as Bukauskas has been chinned before.

first round KO
"I'm gonna say Tyson Pedro first round finish over bakowskus"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane picks Bukauskas because he is a calm fighter who can keep up a decent pace and is more reliable in deep waters than Pedro, who tends to blow up when he can't crush someone early. He notes that Bukauskas is capable of staying in the fight and that Pedro's improvements (like feints) haven't been tested against decent opponents. However, he is hesitant because Bukauskas is not a fighter who creates cracks and wedges them open; he is too patient and passive.

"I guess I'll take Bukowski because I do know that yeah, like this, he is a fighter capable of keeping up a decent pace for, you know, a decent pace if it's brought to him for a long time."
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:05 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Harry Hunsucker 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Harry Hunsucker 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 4
Harry Hunsucker 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 4
Harry Hunsucker 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo refuses to make a moneyline pick due to the absurd odds (Tyson Pedro at -800). He calls the odds 'insane' and 'stupid,' noting that Pedro is 2-3 in his last five with two stoppage losses, while Hunsucker lost to heavy hitters Justin Tafa and Tai Tuivasa. He says Tyson probably wins but advises against betting the moneyline. Instead, he recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and the under on rounds, as he expects a knockout.

Recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and under 1.5 rounds. Also suggests using Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings prop.
"frankly tyson probably wins but don't bet on any of that just bet on does not go the distance one of these buffoons is getting put out period"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady is confident in Tyson Pedro. He notes that Harry Hunsucker has poor skills and was easily taken down and finished by Jared Vanderaa. Pedro is a big favorite and has the advantage everywhere, especially on the ground with good ground and pound and submissions. Brady expects Pedro to take Hunsucker down and finish him in the first round by ground and pound. He is a fan of Hunsucker but acknowledges the skill gap.

Pedro by first round ground and pound
"i like pedro here to win paige to win my first round finish um i'll say first round ground and pound victory for tyson pedro here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro, emphasizing Hunsucker's poor competition and lack of durability. He thinks Pedro can win by leg kicks or takedowns, but warns about the banana peel pricing. He mentions a submission prop as a value play.

by submission (value play)
"i think you go pedro i i don't like to parlay props so i'm not going to but if you were going to play a straight play on tyson pedro you're going to look for that inside the distance and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro to finish Harry Hunsucker in the first round. He jokes about Hunsucker's name and says Pedro will run the train on him. Levi is not sold on Pedro long-term but believes Hunsucker is not the guy to expose him. He expects a quick finish and notes that the under 1.5 rounds line is heavily juiced.

Says the under 1.5 rounds is minus 450 and jokes it should be under 1.5 minutes. Mentions that Pedro will finish him in the first round.
"Tyson Pedro's gonna finish him in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Pedro should win easily as Hunsucker is one of the worst fighters in the UFC, but the -750 price is terrible value. The host prefers betting the under 1.5 rounds or taking a small stab on Hunsucker by round 1 KO at +2200. He includes the under 1.5 in a four-leg parlay.

Under 1.5 rounds parlayed. Also mentions Hunsucker round 1 KO (+2200) as a small stab.
"I could not imagine playing minus 800 on tyson pedro yes he should smash here but this is a fight between two guys that hit very hard."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul picks Pedro, calling Hunsucker a 'cupcake matchup'. He notes Pedro's path to victory via leg kicks or takedowns, but acknowledges the -800 line offers no value. He mentions he put $40 on Hunsucker by KO at 25-1 as a small flier.

Hunsucker round 1 KO/TKO at 25-1 (small bet)
"tyson pedro inside the distance is like minus 500 um the under one and a half rounds is gacked to minus 400 it's like tyson pedro wins harry hunsucker sucks but there's really nothing you can do with this"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Tyson Pedro

The Guru predicts Tyson Pedro wins by kimura submission in round two. He describes Pedro throwing half kicks at range, dodging Hunsucker's wild onslaughts, and landing jabs and teeps. He sees Pedro taking Hunsucker down in round two, taking side control, and locking in the kimura. He notes that the kimura is Pedro's favorite submission.

Submission via kimura in round 2
"tyson pedro gets this one done by kimura submission in round two"
KO (leg kick and punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Ike Villanueva 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Ike Villanueva 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 22 of 29 75% 10 of 17 5 of 5 7 of 7 19 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ike Villanueva 4 of 22 18% 2 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 22 of 29 75% 10 of 17 5 of 5 7 of 7 19 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ike Villanueva 4 of 22 18% 2 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro, believing he can get takedowns and win via grappling. He notes Villanueva has zero leg kick defense and only one takedown attempt against him in the UFC. However, he says the odds are crazy (Pedro almost -500) and he will watch the scales due to Pedro's multi-year layoff. He warns that if Pedro can't get takedowns, he'll get lit up.

"tyson's the pick but i think these odds are crazy he's almost a 500 favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady picks Tyson Pedro to win by knockout in the first round, citing Villanueva's poor chin and defensive liabilities. He notes that Villanueva has been finished many times and has terrible striking defense. Despite Pedro's long layoff, he expects Pedro to finish early, either by knockout or submission.

Win by knockout, first round
"Give me pedro to win I'll say knockout in that very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro, calling it a setup fight. He notes Pedro's submission skills and Villanueva's poor record. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He suggests Pedro inside the distance as a better bet than the moneyline.

Pedro inside the distance (-250); Pedro by submission (+125)
"tyson pedro should win this fight i'm picking win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Tyson Pedro

The host picks Tyson Pedro to win, including him in his quick picks. He also includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He trusts Pedro more than Dean Barry.

Included in totals parlay under 1.5 rounds.
"i'd trust pedro a little bit more than barry honestly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul agrees, noting Pedro's submission wins aged well and Villanueva's inability to grapple. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He questions the price but expects Pedro to win.

Pedro inside the distance
"pedro inside the distance is uh probably a lock"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He acknowledges Pedro's history of poor decision-making and long layoff, but believes he is the better technical fighter. He notes Villanueva has power but is terrible overall. He predicts both will have shaky moments on the feet, then Pedro will get a takedown and finish with an armbar. He references Pedro's past fights where he hurt opponents but then shot bad takedowns.

submission, armbar, first round
"i am going to pick him here i'm going to pick him by submission i'm actually going to pick him with an amber i think he'll end up on top go for a number"
LOSS vs Maurício Rua
TKO (punches) R3 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 1 30 of 56 53% 62 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:20
Tyson Pedro 0 31 of 44 70% 36 of 49 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 41 73% 35 of 46 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
2 Maurício Rua 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:33
Tyson Pedro 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Tyson Pedro 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 30 of 56 53% 23 of 45 2 of 3 5 of 8 12 of 26 1 of 2 17 of 28
Tyson Pedro 31 of 44 70% 21 of 33 9 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 33 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 10 of 21 47% 6 of 15 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 30 of 41 73% 20 of 31 9 of 9 1 of 1 20 of 30 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 6 of 11 54% 4 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7
Tyson Pedro 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 14 of 24 58% 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 20
Tyson Pedro 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (straight armbar) R1 2:54 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · Jun 23, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 12 58% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 1 9 of 12 75% 10 of 13 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 12 58% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 1 9 of 12 75% 10 of 13 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tyson Pedro 9 of 12 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tyson Pedro 9 of 12 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0
Submission (kimura) R1 3:54 · UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Feb 11, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 0 12 of 23 52% 17 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:01
Saparbeg Safarov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 0 12 of 23 52% 17 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:01
Saparbeg Safarov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 12 of 23 52% 6 of 17 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 18 2 of 5 0 of 0
Saparbeg Safarov 8 of 22 36% 6 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 12 of 23 52% 6 of 17 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 18 2 of 5 0 of 0
Saparbeg Safarov 8 of 22 36% 6 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 2