UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 2"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jimmy Crute
4.15 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
4.39 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
2.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Paul Craig
2.5 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.04 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.43 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Jimmy Crute - Fight History
WIN vs Ivan Erslan
Submission R1 3:19 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 2 of 4 50% 1 1 2:08
Ivan Erslan 0 10 of 14 71% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 2 of 4 50% 1 1 2:08
Ivan Erslan 0 10 of 14 71% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 12 of 16 75% 3 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 4
Ivan Erslan 10 of 14 71% 9 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 12 of 16 75% 3 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 4
Ivan Erslan 10 of 14 71% 9 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan, believing Crute is the better fighter everywhere except one-punch knockout power. He notes Crute's wrestling and submissions, and that Erslan is knockout-or-bust. He is surprised by the line tightening and attributes it to Crute's mullet, not his skills. He may bet on Crute if the line continues to collapse.

May bet on Crute if line continues to tighten.
"Jimmy Croo should win this fight. I am actually surprised by the line tightening. Again, people see the haircut and they're like, 'Nah, dude. a grown man. A grown [ __ ] man. No, not doing that.' That is why …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Big Brady picks Ivan Erslan to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Crute's poor striking defense and worries about his chin. He notes Erslan has solid power and striking, and if Crute refuses to grapple, Erslan can knock him out. He acknowledges Crute could get a submission if he gets top position.

first round KO
"I'm going to take Erslon here. I'll say Erslon wins this fight by first round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Cody picks Crute but acknowledges his inconsistency and durability issues. He believes Crute's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to take down Erslan, who is rudimentary and low-output. He worries about Crute's chin and tendency to tire, but thinks Erslan won't push a pace to exploit that.

"I just think better everywhere. His wrestling is good enough that he should be able to take Urslon down"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute on the slim hope that his submission grappling will be the difference if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges that both fighters are first-round specialists, but Crute has a more complete game with submission wins. Connor is hesitant because Crute's cardio and tendency to fall apart are major concerns, but he thinks Crute's grappling could catch Erslan off guard.

"I'll take Jimmy Crute. Why not on the slim thought that his submission grappling game will be the difference maker?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

James picks the underdog Ivan Erslan, believing he is the better boxer with superior cardio. He criticizes Jimmy Crute's recent performance, calling him overrated and noting his wrestling is overrated and his takedowns are poor. He also mentions Crute's mental health issues and past damage as concerns. James thinks Erslan can defend takedowns and outwork Crute on the feet, making him a live dog at +200.

"I'm actually going to pick the underdog in this fight, boys. Ivan Ursland is a live dog here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

James picks Ivan Erslan as an underdog, citing Crute's tendency to fade after round one and Erslan's superior cardio and boxing. He notes Erslan has been competitive in his UFC losses and that the line was favorable at +200 when he bet. He believes Erslan can win by outworking Crute in later rounds.

"I'm actually picking the underdog here. I'm actually picking Ivan Urseland here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The host notes Crute finally won after five years and thinks this is a perfect matchup for him to gain momentum. He expects Crute to use his reckless striking to set up a takedown and then snatch a submission.

win by submission
"Crude finally picking up a win in his first win in five years last time around and I think this is a perfect match up for him to start gaining some momentum. Look for him to utilize his reckless and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The Guru picks Jimmy Crute, despite his past struggles, because he sees no talent in Ivan Erslan. He believes Crute's grappling will be the difference, allowing him to take Erslan down and secure a submission in round one or two.

submission in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go Jimmy Crew."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Zane picks Erslan, believing that Erslan's ability to stay on his feet and throw punches later in the fight will be key. He notes that Crute tends to fall apart after the first round, often flopping to his back in desperation. Zane thinks Erslan is more likely to survive the early onslaught and then outwork Crute in the later rounds, as Crute's cardio and composure are questionable.

"I think I'm gonna take Urslan. Sure, just take him away from me."
Submission R1 4:42 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.

"I'm going to pick Jimmy here. The gap on the ground is bigger than the gap on the feet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.

Crute by first round submission
"I think Croo is going to win this fight. I'll take Croo to win this fight by first round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.

submission
"I think Groot will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot on Prao to drop him and then follow up with the submission to get the victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Jimmy Crute, despite some hesitation. He criticizes Crute's footwork, saying he fights like he's stepping on Legos, and notes that Crute has problems with low kicks, as seen against Anthony Smith. Prachnio is described as a slick striker with good low kicks, and the Guru believes he will not get outmuscled on the ground. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Crute submitting him, but ultimately goes with Prachnio based on striking superiority.

"I'm going with Martin Patchio, man."
Draw vs Rodolfo Bellato
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 1 106 of 209 50% 139 of 247 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 89 of 141 63% 95 of 148 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 1 27 of 47 57% 59 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 1 of 5 20% 4 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jimmy Crute 0 46 of 95 48% 46 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Bellato 0 48 of 70 68% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jimmy Crute 0 33 of 67 49% 34 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Bellato 0 40 of 66 60% 43 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 106 of 209 50% 93 of 190 8 of 10 5 of 9 77 of 170 11 of 13 18 of 26
Rodolfo Bellato 89 of 141 63% 36 of 76 24 of 29 29 of 36 85 of 136 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 27 of 47 57% 23 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 18 3 of 3 18 of 26
Rodolfo Bellato 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jimmy Crute 46 of 95 48% 40 of 85 3 of 4 3 of 6 39 of 86 7 of 9 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 48 of 70 68% 18 of 35 14 of 16 16 of 19 44 of 65 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jimmy Crute 33 of 67 49% 30 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0 32 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 40 of 66 60% 18 of 38 9 of 11 13 of 17 40 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Jimmy Crute
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-162), Crute (+136)

Round 1
After a few losses and a short-lived retirement announcement, Australia’s own Crute (12-4-1, 4-4-1 UFC) is back and ready to lift his promotional record above .500. He draws a tough rising test as he tries to get his hand raised for the first time since 2020, with the surging Bellato (12-2, 1-0 UFC) ready for action. The light heavyweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Marc Goddard, who minds the particulars for as long as this match lasts. Gloves are touched, and Bellato takes the center of the cage. Crute tosses out a few half-hearted low kicks and takes a punch square in the chest while setting up. A heavier low kick is countered by a Bellato scooping left hook, and Crute gives him something to think about with a spin kick to the ribs. Bellato wraps up his opponent and wrangles him to the mat, only to fall on his back in a failed sacrifice throw. Crute fights off the scramble and find himself in half guard, and he shifts to side control. Bellato turns to his stomach in an effort to escape, and Crute wraps up a brabo choke to twist Bellato to his back again. Crute jams down heavy punches, and Bellato throws his legs up for any submission or trap he can find. Crute pushes through an upkick to drive down more punishment, and two big elbows from the Aussie get the attention of “Trator.” Crute stays a step ahead of the Brazilian, landing big ground-and-pound when not staying tightly pressed on his opponent to keep him trapped. Bellato turns and sweeps his man, but Crute is right there in front of him ready to bust him in the face. Bellato shakes it off, but Crute is a man on a mission and slugs the Brazilian in the face with a nasty right hand. Bellato falls over, and Crute pounces in hopes of drumming him out. The finish does not materialize, and Bellato survives to the second round with a bit of blood drawn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Crute
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Crute
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Crute

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going in the second round, and Crute feels the momentum behind him and puts it on Bellato. Crute walks Bellato down, smashing him in the face and drawing some swelling beneath his left eye. Bellato’s counters are effective but his hands are lower, his pace waning and his power sapping. The Brazilian kicks the front leg a few times, and Crute splits the guard with a one-two. Crute shoots for a takedown, Bellato gets out of it, and “The Brute” tries a second time to no effect. When he cannot get the fight down, Crute elects to spin kick Bellato in the ribs. Both men stand in the pocket and trade, not the best strategy for light heavyweights that can crack, but Bellato is getting his chances to land. Bellato drives three punches through the raised guard, and he bounces back from a long strike to blast Crute in the face with a short but powerful right hook. Crute is showing signs of fatigue as well, but he surges into action shortly thereafter to drill Bellato with several uppercuts from close range. Bellato backs him off with an overhand right, and he no-sells a body shot so he can bash “The Brute” in the face with his fists. Crute fires off one-twos that bloody up Bellato’s nose, and both men might show fatigue but are still eager and willing to trade. Crute takes two leg kicks, the second nearly stripping him of his balance. Rather than attack the leg, Bellato spins with a failed wheel kick. Crute answers him with a wheel kick that also does not land, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Crute

Round 3
After 10 minutes of combat, both men are bloodied and bruised, figuratively and literally. Bellato swings for the bleachers, and he clips Crute with every third or four strike he manages to get off. Bellato chews up the front leg with kicks, and Crute limps around gingerly. A takedown shot from Crute strips Bellato off his feet, only for Bellato to climb back up undeterred. Bellato slaps at the calf again, takes a one-two on the chin and just misses a whizzing back fist. Crute tries to check a low kick, and the two get in a short but torrid brawl. Crute lunges his way into attack, and Bellato backs him away with counters. A right hand from Crute stings his man for the umpteenth time, and Bellato’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he ducks another big strike to hit a clean takedown. Crute gets to his hands and feet when he turns over, and Bellato wrenches him back down. Crute slowly crawls in hopes of standing, and Bellato lets him back up so they can bang it out with about a minute and 45 seconds to go. Crute sneaks a head kick behind a left hand, and Bellato has his guard up in time for both strikes. The Brazilian chops at the front calf, and Crute keeps a stiff upper lip and steps in to knee Bellato in the face. A right-to-head-kick combo from Crute ricochets off the guard again, but a one-two after it lands flush. Bellato keeps working the front leg over with kicks any time he can find an opening, and he keeps Crute honest by swinging with everything he has left. Crute tanks the heavy stuff, absorbs a flush knee and sticks his tongue out. Crute slaps Bellato in the face with an open palm, and the back-and-forth scrap comes to an end. It could go either way, and a draw could be in play.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-28 Bellato)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (28-28)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-27 Crute)

The Official Result
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a Majority Draw (29-27, 28-28, 28-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady is taking a chance on Jimmy Crute, who is returning from retirement. He acknowledges Crute's poor fight IQ and chin issues but believes Crute is more skilled than Bellato. He notes that Bellato has a questionable chin and was nearly finished by Ehor Pia. Brady predicts Crute will win by first-round knockout, similar to his win over Modestas Bukauskas.

"I'm going to take crout here I'm going to take Roo to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute, believing he is the better fighter and can knock Bellato out. He thinks Bellato is slow and hittable. However, he acknowledges Crute's thoughtlessness and tendency to latch onto one idea. He notes that if Bellato survives the first round, Crute might fade. But he sticks with Crute, calling it a well-booked fight for him.

"I'm sticking with Crute, but it's a good fight. It's a well-booked fight for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses Jimmy Crute's return after a religious conversion, wondering if it will reinvigorate him or soften him like Rory McDonald. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is a tough, aggressive fighter who will make Crute fight. However, he does not pick a winner, only expressing curiosity about which version of Crute shows up.

"It'll be really interesting to see which of the two Jimmy crew performs like is he going to be reinvigorated or is he going to kind of look like a ghost of his former self"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The host does not believe in Crute enough to pick the upset. Bellato will dictate the pace with his striking, stop Crute's takedowns, and eventually slow him down and beat him. The pick is for Bellato to win by knockout.

knockout
"I do not believe in crud enough to make me believe he can pull off the upset here I think we'll see B to dictate the pace with his striking eventually stopping the takedowns of crout and eventually slowing him …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane picks Bellato, citing momentum and Crute's mental state. He notes that Crute is on a three-fight losing streak and seems dispirited. Bellato is imposing, aggressive, and doesn't lose his cool. Zane thinks if Crute doesn't finish Bellato early, Bellato will wear him down. He acknowledges Crute could knock Bellato out in the first round, but doubts Crute's confidence.

"I'm going to pick Bellato here. And I think it's largely for momentum reasons."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:55 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alonzo Menifield 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:12
Jimmy Crute 0 21 of 36 58% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alonzo Menifield 0 25 of 37 67% 31 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:01
Jimmy Crute 0 11 of 16 68% 15 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
2 Alonzo Menifield 0 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Jimmy Crute 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alonzo Menifield 26 of 53 49% 5 of 30 19 of 20 2 of 3 6 of 31 20 of 22 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 21 of 36 58% 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alonzo Menifield 25 of 37 67% 4 of 14 19 of 20 2 of 3 5 of 15 20 of 22 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 11 of 16 68% 8 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alonzo Menifield 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Angelo picks Menifield but calls it a 50/50 fight and advises against betting. He notes Menifield's power and takedown defense, and that Crute was surprised by his power in the first fight. He thinks Crute will be hesitant due to being dropped twice, but acknowledges Crute could win if he avoids the power and gets takedowns. He avoids this fight with money.

Avoiding betting on this fight
"personally I'm avoiding this fight with money I'm not gonna spend money on this fight there are much better spots on this card than this fight but I am going to pick Alonzo to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Big Brady picks Alonzo Menifield to win by first-round knockout. He notes that in their first fight, Menifield had success in the first round, hurting Crute badly, but Crute survived due to weak ground and pound and Menifield gassing. He believes Menifield will land a big shot and knock out Crute, especially given Crute's poor striking defense (45%) and low fight IQ. He cautions that if Mark Goddard is the referee, the fight might not be stopped early.

first round knockout
"I'll take menifield first round knockout as long as Mark Goddard is not the referee"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Cody leans toward Menifield but says the price is accurate as a pick'em. He notes Menifield was winning the first fight until a point deduction led to a draw. He thinks Menifield's power and explosiveness are threats. He is not betting the fight.

"I'll still side with menifield but I'm not battling it I think the fight the the price is completely 100 accurate"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Connor picks Menifield because he did so much damage to Crute in their first fight that Crute may not survive that again. Crute's hyper-aggressive approach forces him to walk into fire, and Menifield's power is a constant threat. However, Menifield's cardio and grappling are weaknesses, but Crute's lack of defense makes Menifield the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I have to pick Menafield, but it's a whole various fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Daniel Levi picks Crute, arguing that there is a market overcorrection after their draw. He notes that Crute took Menifield down six times in their first fight and believes that with adjustments, Crute can control the fight on the ground. Levi points out that Menifield now trains with Pat Berry, which may improve his striking but likely not his takedown defense. He expects Crute to be more measured this time, using top control and ground-and-pound to secure a win. Levi bet Crute at minus-104 and is confident in the pick.

Bet at -104, now -125
"I took Jimmy The Brute crew here uh at minus like 104 a few days ago."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)

James does not make a clear pick on the winner, calling the fight too volatile to bet. He sees value on Crute by decision at +600, as he thinks Crute can win via wrestling and decision, but he is not confident enough to bet it. He breaks down the fight: Menifield's win equity is heavily in the KO, while Crute has multiple paths (decision, submission, KO). He caps Crute around -140 but the line at -110 is not enough edge given the volatility.

Jimmy Crute by decision at +600 (considered, not played)
"it's a land mine you kind of just want to pass if you're betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Crute has a grappling advantage and can take Menifield down and control him on the ground. Menifield has knockout power but slows down as fights progress. Crute will be methodical, avoid getting clipped, and grind out a decision victory. The over 2.5 rounds is also a good play.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me Jimmy crude by decision but the over two and a half is looking kind of swanky at that plus 200 line give me a nibble on that as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Paul picks Crute, noting he is younger and coming off a long layoff with ring rust now gone. He thinks Crute's takedowns will be effective and Menifield's cardio is poor. He expects Crute to make adjustments and win by grinding him down. He mentions Menifield's tendency to fade.

Crute by decision, over 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Jimmy crude I'm wearing Jimmy Cruz last time and found I thought I was very thankful to get out of that with the draw"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute, changing his initial opinion after rewatching the first fight. He believes Crute's early guillotine attempt cost him dominant position, and if he stays patient and focuses on positional control, he can win. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first round.

wins by rear-naked choke in the first round
"I'm going to call a real naked choke for Jimmy crew at the end of the first"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Zane picks Menifield because he is a better athlete and can absolutely wreck Crute with a few punches, as he did in their first fight. Crute is reckless and aggressive but not durable, and Menifield's power and violence should overwhelm him again. However, Menifield's poor cardio and grappling control make it a volatile fight, but Crute has no safe places in his game.

Crute opened at -103, currently -116; Menifield opened at -107, currently +105. Zane questions why Crute is the favorite.
"I got to pick Menafield."
Draw (majority) (29–27, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 31 of 62 50% 62 of 103 6 of 12 50% 3 0 7:55
Alonzo Menifield 2 56 of 83 67% 99 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 10 of 26 38% 13 of 29 4 of 5 80% 1 0 2:31
Alonzo Menifield 1 23 of 28 82% 36 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
2 Jimmy Crute 0 10 of 23 43% 20 of 37 1 of 3 33% 2 0 1:30
Alonzo Menifield 1 25 of 38 65% 35 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
3 Jimmy Crute 0 11 of 13 84% 29 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:54
Alonzo Menifield 0 8 of 17 47% 28 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 31 of 62 50% 27 of 58 2 of 2 2 of 2 23 of 54 5 of 5 3 of 3
Alonzo Menifield 56 of 83 67% 53 of 80 1 of 1 2 of 2 42 of 67 4 of 4 10 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 10 of 26 38% 8 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 23 of 28 82% 22 of 27 0 of 0 1 of 1 13 of 17 1 of 1 9 of 10
2 Jimmy Crute 10 of 23 43% 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 25 of 38 65% 23 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 21 of 33 3 of 3 1 of 2
3 Jimmy Crute 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3
Alonzo Menifield 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Crute (-120), Menifield (+100)

Round 1
Sticking to the light heavyweight division, albeit with a contest that has immediate implications on the rankings, the UFC will run back a fight that ended by contentious majority draw in February. Surviving an early onslaught and the benefactor of a point deduction, Crute (12-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC) hopes to get back in the win column for the first time since 2020. Standing in his way once again will be the powerful Menifield (13-3-1, 6-3-1 UFC), who is aching to put Crute away in his second try. Whether he does or not, referee Mark Smith will be here for it. There is no ill will between the two combatants, and they bump fists before engaging. The two are cautious to engage in the early going, with Crute looking for his range with a front kick and a punch. When Crute kicks low, Menifield pierces the guard with a straight right hand. Menifield sits down on a low kick of his own, and he rails Crute with a one-two that sends him reeling. Crute scampers back upright after spinning around from the power punches, and he fakes a level change and drops his hands to encourage Menifield to come at him. Menifield does not engage, instead allowing Crute to jab him in the face. Menifield looks to go after another overhand right when Crute kicks him in the calf, and he misses the mark by a matter of inches. Menifield catches Crute with a right hand, stops a takedown in its tracks, and pushes his foe against the wall. Crute looks to trip him down, and Menifield is warned for grabbing the fence. Crute lines up a slew of knees to the body as the two jockey for position, and Crute grips a standing guillotine but cannot rope it around the neck before Menifield pulls it free. Menifield looks for a left hand from up close, and he stands up Crute when Crute goes for another takedown. The guillotine choke again from Crute fails, and he puts two knees to the body before Menifield pushes off and blasts Crute in the face with a right hand. Menifield punches his way back into the clinch, and Crute tries with all his might to secure a takedown. Menifield thwarts a double and then a single that comes chained after it, and he eats an unexpected knee to the nose from up close. Menifield is warned to work, and is then warned for striking the back of the head when he throws a punch. Crute tries one more odd-angled guillotine, and they trade knees and position right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Menifield

Round 2
The two meet in the middle of the cage, and Menifield darts forward with a shovel left hook. Crute hops back and narrowly evades taking a right hook flush on the jaw. Crute pokes out a few jabs, and he draws out a huge haymaker from his opponent. Menifield swings for the fences, and he misses as Crute is lighter on his feet. Menifield blocks a high kick to ring a right hand on the cheek, and Crute shakes it off and gets his head snapped back from a jab. The two trade jabs, and they go strike for strike with one another. Menifield nails the Aussie with a big right hand, and Crute shoots in for a double that he completes. Menifield fights his way back to his feet, and he backs himself up against the wall.
“The Brute” attacks a single-leg takedown, and Menifield snatches up a guillotine choke and turns the corner. Using the power submission to his advantage, Menifield pushes Crute to the mat and moves right into mount. The grip is vice-like and it is not only choking Crute but also cranking his neck, and Crute is shocked. After just a few seconds, Crute surrenders.
When the fight is over, Crute shakes his head with frustration, and he frantically paws at the tape on his gloves. Getting them unwrapped, the 27-year-old puts them on the floor as if to signal his retirement. On the other hand, that marks 13 finishes across the 14 victories for the Texan, who self-censors himself on the post-fight interview with comical expressions like “Oh Snickers.”

The Official Result
Alonzo Menifield def. Jimmy Crute R2 1:55 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Angelo picks Alonzo Menifield, despite acknowledging his sloppy striking, because of his excellent takedown defense and power. He expects Jimmy Crute to grapple early, but Menifield's 85% takedown defense should hold up, allowing him to land big shots. He has a small bet on Menifield at +185 and will include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

Included in Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry
"Alonzo is the pick I do have a small bet on him I have a quarter of a unit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Big Brady picks the underdog Menifield, citing Crute's poor fight IQ and Menifield's explosive power and takedown defense. He thinks if Crute tries to strike, Menifield can knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout for Menifield but admits he loses money on both fighters.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take the dog here in Alonso manifold ... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Cody picks Crute but with low confidence due to Crute's long layoff and knee injury. He notes Crute has great skills but is hittable and durability is a question. He sees Menifield as a live underdog with power and decent takedown defense. He thinks Crute's path is takedowns and control, but Menifield could land a big shot.

"I'm gonna go GB crew but basically it's a lot of narrative"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute, noting that Menifield tends to shut down when pressured. He highlights that Crute's aggressive, high-volume style will overwhelm Menifield, who lacks defensive depth and counter-punching ability. Connor also mentions that Crute's wrestling and kicks will create opportunities, and that Menifield's poor reactions to getting hit will be exploited. He acknowledges Crute's flaws but sees Menifield's mental fragility as a bigger issue.

"Personally this to me feels like the kind of fight jimmy crute wins... menafield can be made to shut down if you come to him with something that scares him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Crute's kicking game and cardio will be key. He can stay on the outside and avoid Menifield's power. Menifield slows down in later rounds and has poor cardio. Crute's BJJ is a threat if it goes to the ground, but he likely keeps it standing and outpoints Menifield. Crute has made life changes and looks in phenomenal shape. Menifield's only path is an early KO, but Crute's movement and kicks should neutralize that.

"I think Jimmy crew will do a really good job of just keeping his kicks going from the outside slowing down elon's amount of field when they're able to get into the clinch position"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Paul took Menifield at +180, citing Crute's long layoff, fragility, and Menifield's power. He worries about Menifield's gas tank but thinks the price is worth the risk. He notes Menifield has decent takedown defense and submission game if taken down.

"I took uh Mana field plus 180 on the money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield as an underdog over Jimmy Crute, citing Menifield's power and recent KO wins. He worries Crute will test his stand-up too long and get caught, predicting a first-round KO for Menifield. He notes Crute's grappling is elite but expects him to be too confident on the feet.

first round KO
"I'm going Alonzo many field by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Zane also picks Crute, agreeing that Menifield's tendency to freeze under pressure is a key factor. He notes that Crute's constant forward pressure and power shots will likely cause Menifield to hesitate and become defensive. Zane also points out that Menifield is not a good counter-puncher and struggles when forced to fight off the back foot. He believes Crute's aggression will be rewarded.

"Personally this to me feels like the kind of fight jimmy crute wins... menafield can be made to shut down if you come to him with something that scares him."
LOSS vs Jamahal Hill
KO (punches) R1 0:48 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Over 1.5 rounds bet (1 unit)
"i like jimmy to win i see a good amount of takedowns here so i actually like the 9 200 bucks"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

by submission
"give me jimmy crew to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

"i gotta think that hill edges them out um again this is a plus 140 hill this is a close fight this is the fight that i would label probably as a dogger pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

"I think jamal pieces him up with way too much volume and length and fluidity and speed on the fee so give me jamal hill to win a decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

"wrestle jimmy and you'll get the win just like dan said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Crute by submission +250
"i think it's the crew by submission honestly croot submission plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

"i'm gonna lean towards hill here i think um if he does get taken to the ground his grappling looked good enough or at least his heart looked good enough that he wasn't gonna tap"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.

first round kimura
"i'm gonna go with jimmy croots by first round kimura"
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 26 of 39 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jimmy Crute 0 18 of 35 51% 34 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 26 of 39 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jimmy Crute 0 18 of 35 51% 34 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 26 of 39 66% 20 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 18 of 35 51% 7 of 21 2 of 5 9 of 9 17 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 26 of 39 66% 20 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 18 of 35 51% 7 of 21 2 of 5 9 of 9 17 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Crute to win by second-round TKO. He cites Crute's superior striking stats, takedown accuracy, and youth, while Smith is hittable and has taken a lot of damage. He expects Crute to either knock Smith out or dominate on the ground, similar to Rakic's game plan. He notes Smith has been finished in 13 of 16 losses.

Crute by TKO in round 2
"i'm gonna take jimmy crude to win by a second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Cody is all in on Crute, praising his raw power, chin, and finishing ability. He notes Smith's durability and tendency to come back in later rounds but believes Crute's youth and aggression will be too much. He expects Crute to win by knockout or submission, and mentions that Smith's best chance is if Crute's cardio fails. He also suggests live betting on Smith if Crute slows down.

Crute by KO/TKO, live betting on Smith if Crute fades
"jimmy croup my boy plain and simple"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Daniel picks Jimmy Crute, citing his well-rounded skills, youth, and that he has already learned from his first loss. He expects Crute to take Smith down, neutralize him, and win via decision or finish. He notes Smith's wins often come via comeback and that Crute is unlikely to make a bonehead mistake.

"i'm going uh with jimmy lebrue crew to get the biggest win of his career here saturday night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I think Crute uses his wrestling and jiu-jitsu to grind out Smith. Smith has shown durability but also a tendency to shell up and take damage. Crute is young and aggressive, and I think he can get a TKO. I like Crute by TKO at +170, but the over 1.5 at -185 is also a good play as Smith is tough to finish early.

Crute by TKO +170; over 1.5 -185
"i think he uses his jiu jitsu and is wrestling to its best abilities and grinds anthony smith out here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Paul picks Crute, citing his youth, power, and aggression. He notes Smith's durability and comeback ability but thinks Crute's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Smith. He expects Crute to win by finish or decision, and mentions that Smith's best chance is if Crute gasses. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds but acknowledges Crute's first-round finishing potential.

Over 1.5 rounds (-180), Crute by KO/TKO
"i'm going to go with jimmy croot get those takedowns at work this guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute by decision, possibly 30-26. He believes Crute's grappling will be too much for Smith, who has been out-grappled before and tends to shell up. He notes Crute's underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to chop at the legs, and thinks Smith won't be able to hang on the ground.

"i'm going with jimmy crew"
KO (punches) R1 2:01 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 2 17 of 24 70% 18 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Modestas Bukauskas 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 2 17 of 24 70% 18 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Modestas Bukauskas 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 17 of 24 70% 8 of 14 1 of 1 8 of 9 14 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2
Modestas Bukauskas 7 of 17 41% 2 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 17 of 24 70% 8 of 14 1 of 1 8 of 9 14 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2
Modestas Bukauskas 7 of 17 41% 2 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Jimmy Crute

Round 1
Shifting gears to the 205-pound weight category, “The Brute” Crute (11-1, 3-1 UFC) faces another European opponent, this time in the form of “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (11-2, 1-0 UFC). In what could be an all-action battle, referee Anders Ohlsson will need to mind his P’s and Q’s in the cage, although the two light heavyweights do touch gloves to precede their mutual combat. Bukauskas starts off with a leg kick, and Crute is quick to counter him. Crute charges in and pursues a takedown, but manages to just push the Lithuanian against the cage. Crute lands a knee to the groin, and there is brief pause. Bukauskas is ready to continue quickly, and Crute swings and misses with a low kick. A right hand that follows does not miss, and Crute fires off another leg kick that connects shortly after. Bukauskas lands a one-two, and Crute slaps a kick that marks up the lead leg of his opponent already. Crute stings him with a right hand, and he continues his leg kick assault, this time on the inside. “The Brute” follows a double jab with a leg kick, and he resets for a moment.
When Bukauskas comes in for a body kick, Crute smashes him in the face with a right hand to send down falling to the ground. Bukauskas tries to return to his feet but he is wobbled and met with a fierce right hand that hurts him badly. Crute slings another right hand that does not find a target, but a vicious left hook from Crute sends Bukauskas crashing down to the canvas for good. As Ohlsson is tending to a barely conscious Bukauskas, Crute sits down next to his downed opponent to hug him. What a performance for Crute, breaking up a string of six consecutive decisions tonight with a beautiful knockout. The Official Result Jimmy Crute def. Modestas Bukauskas R1 2:01 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady is extremely confident in Crute, calling it one of his most confident picks on the card. He highlights Crute's excellent wrestling (81% takedown accuracy) and BJJ black belt, while Bukauskas has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission.

"give me jimmy crude here all day i mean is one of my most confident picks on the whole card"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute because of his evolving grappling game and versatility in takedowns. He notes that Bukauskas has been held against the cage and uses illegal elbows, while Crute has shown improvement and has a black belt in BJJ. He expects a second-round submission, possibly a kimura.

second round submission
"i think we're going to see a second round submission for jimmy crew maybe getting his patent in kimura on this card"
Paul Craig - Fight History
KO R1 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 22 of 36 61% 29 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 30 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 22 of 36 61% 29 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 30 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 22 of 36 61% 18 of 30 0 of 0 4 of 6 10 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 19
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 0 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 7 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 22 of 36 61% 18 of 30 0 of 0 4 of 6 10 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 19
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 0 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 7 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)

Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot is now occupied by a light heavyweight car crash in the form of Lithuania’s Bukauskas (18-6, 5-4 UFC) against “Bearjew” Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC; 9-9-1, 1 NC UFC). While Bukauskas celebrates a stoppage rate over 70%, Craig has still never needed the judges to get his hand raised after all these years. Referee Marc Goddard will keep things on the up-and-up here, and he stands back as the athletes come towards one another without touching gloves.
Bukauskas is able to get his hands on Craig early, scoring at the end of a left hand. Craig bounces off the fencing, and Bukauskas smacks him with a low kick. Craig whiffs on a high kick, and his calf is struck once more in response. Bukauskas charges with a flurry of punches and results in a clinch, which is where Craig would prefer to be. Bukauskas lands a few short clinch strikes, and he backs off and avoids a looping hook in time. Bukauskas goes back to his calf kick, with the two trading this particular blow until Craig spins at him with a back kick. Bukauskas skips forward to ding Craig with an overhand right, and he is driven back from a spinning kick to the ribs.
They land leg kicks on one another, and Bukauskas blocks a kick in time and is reminded of a past loss to Khalil Rountree when Craig stomps at his knee. Craig gets hold of Bukauskas and pushes him from one side of the Octagon to the other. Craig looks to trip Bukauskas up, and he tries to muscle his man down but Bukauskas is able to keep upright. Craig laces his leg between his foe’s, and he abandons the effort to knee the body a few times. Bukauskas turns him about and plants knees on his torso. Craig jumps guard, and he slides off Bukauskas and hits the ground. Bukauskas lets him hit the floor so he can rain down punches, and he elects to get into Craig’s guard. Bukauskas drums his opponent’s head off the canvas with his devastating ground-and-pound.
Craig turns to defend the strikes, and Bukauskas postures up and demolishes him with one of the most destructive elbows one could ever see or hear. The horn sounds, and Craig lifelessly slumps to his side. Goddard recognizes that Craig is out cold and waves the fight off as five minutes had elapsed.
Luckily for “Bearjew,” he is able to come to shortly thereafter, and he congratulates Bukauskas for sending him astral traveling. While Bukauskas celebrates his handiwork and calls for a top-15 opponent, Craig removes his gloves to signal his retirement, thanking everyone for the memories while noting that the young eat the old in this sport.

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Paul Craig R1 5:00 via KO (Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.

"Modesus is going to be the pick. I think he kind of runs through Paul Craig to be honest with you."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.

Bukauskas by decision
"Bukowskis for me, Bukowskis by decision. I think this fight's probably going to suck to be honest."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.

"Paul Craig's fragility is always going to be there. Craig is always going to be the more likely guy to get extremely badly hurt in any exchange."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.

"I think this is a fight where Bukowskis can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance and may not overextend too much here in hopes of not getting taken down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.

first round TKO
"I'm going with Modestus Picowskus and I'm going to say that he finishes this in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.

"Got to pick Modestus Bukauskis and this fight just didn't, doesn't need to be, it doesn't need to exist."
NC R1 4:59 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-375), Craig (+295)

Round 1
What was previously booked a few weeks ago fell apart due to a sudden outbreak of cold sores for the favored man. The UFC puts it back together, knowing that if light heavyweight co-headliner goes all 15 minutes, something may have gone horribly wrong between these two ludicrously aggressive fighters. In their combined 29 wins, they have just one decision between them. Craig (17-9-1, 9-9-1 UFC) still celebrates his gaudy 100% finish rate, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1-0-1 UFC) went the distance for the LFA title that springboarded him to DWCS. Referee Kevin MacDonald dons his proverbial hard hat for this explosive contest, and the fighters decide to bump their large fists together before going for broke. Bellato resides in the center of the age, pump-faking and feinting but not throwing anything. Instead, Craig lands first, in the form of a hefty body kick. Bellato swings and misses with huge hooks that might have dome some serious damage, and he is not messing around early. Bellato chips at the lead leg and jabs the midsection, getting met with a body kick on the way out. Bellato’s leg kick finds its home again, and his right hand is wound up ready to strike. Instead, the Brazilian clinches, and he bounces out and rocks Craig with a right hand. Craig responds with a spinning back kick to the breadbasket, and he takes some of the sting off a front kick aimed at his chest. Craig spins with another back kick that lands flush, and he jabs and shoots for a takedown that does not come. Bellato stays focused on welting up the Scot’s front leg, and he ignores a left hand so he can prepare for a takedown that comes. Bellato stuffs it and wings a right hand, and the looping hook buzzes past Craig’s beard. Bellato takes two more body kicks, nods and stalks “Bearjew” down. Craig rips another kick to the ribs, and he spins with a back kick and drops down for a single. Bellato frames off and keeps his balance, forcing Craig to sell out and drop down for it while pushing the heavy betting favorite against the wall. Craig trips Bellato up, and as if he had springs in his shorts, Bellato bounces off the mat to get back to his feet. Craig ducks a huge punch and goes after a takedown, but Bellato bowls him over and lands heavily in half guard. Bellato flirts with an arm-triangle setup, retaining heavy chest pressure to not allow Craig to do something off his back. Bellato postures up and stands up with 10 seconds to go, smacking Craig with a low kick and diving down.
Craig pushes off of him and belts Bellato with a brutal upkick while Bellato’s right knee is down. The stunner of an upkick knocks Bellato clean out, who collapses to his back. After a few seconds he snaps back to consciousness and looks terrified, eyes wide as dinner plates, and he scurries towards the wall to defend himself from an unknown threat.
Still not knowing where he is, Bellato seats himself against the fence, and when MacDonald approaches him, Bellato tries to grapple him and even attempts a leglock. MacDonald calmly, professionally informs Bellato that he got knocked out, and calls for a replay to determine the legality of the blow. It is clear the fight is over and that Bellato will not be able to continue, so the only question is whether MacDonald will declare this fight result a disqualification or a no contest. Meanwhile, virtual judge Devin Tejada specifically requested that his round score of a 10-6 in favor of Craig be declared here even though the round did not end. This is a rough situation, one that merits this match be booked one more time in a few months.

The Official Result
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a No Contest (Illegal Upkick) R1 4:59
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Angelo picks Bellato because Paul Craig is not very good and has no evolution in his game. He notes that Bellato should win by keeping his elbows in on the ground and bombing away on the feet. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but Bellato should avoid getting submitted.

"Ralph Bolato should absolutely win this fight. Paul Craig's not very good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout. He notes that Paul Craig is near retirement and has struggled at middleweight. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but believes Bellato can keep the fight standing and knock him out, as long as he treats the ground like lava.

second round knockout
"I'll say Botato by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato will keep the fight upright and use his striking to damage Craig, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds. He is not expected to attempt a submission.

round 1-2 knockout
"I think he'll just look to utilize his big power and get Craig out of there within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, despite being a former Paul Craig supporter. He doubts Craig's chin and offensive intent, noting Craig struggled against Bo Nickal. He highlights Bellato's training with Luke Rockhold for grappling and expects a first-round TKO, as Bellato should be safe on the feet if he doesn't shoot into Craig's guard.

Rodolfo Bellato by first-round TKO
"I'm going to go over Balato. Hurts me to say it because I was a Paul Craig meme supporter for a long time. ... I think he's going to lose to Rulo Balato."
CANCEL vs Rodolfo Bellato
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Angelo picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout, stating that Paul Craig's wrestling is too poor to get the fight to the ground where he is dangerous, and his chin is too weak to stay in the pocket. He notes that Bellato is a heavy-handed grappler who will come forward and bomb away. Angelo also mentions that Bellato is incredibly handsome, adding a humorous note.

Angelo predicts a knockout win for Bellato.
"This should be a Batto knockout all day long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato, noting he is a black belt and the better striker with good power. He acknowledges Paul Craig's comeback ability but thinks Bellato's takedown defense and striking advantage lead to a second-round knockout.

Bellato by KO, round 2
"I'll take Bolato to win. I think he's going to knock out Paul Craig. I think he's going to do it in the second round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The host is surprised Bellato is such a big favorite, noting he is not super technical and Craig could pull off a submission. However, he leans with Bellato due to better hardware, good durability, and great cardio, expecting him to outdamage Craig and find a finish in the second or third round. He would not pay minus 500 on a fighter like this.

Bellato by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3; odds comment: wouldn't pay -500
"I'm still gonna lean with Bellto as I think he has a little bit better hardware, good durability and great cardio and that should allow him to outdamage Paul Craig, shut down the submission attempts and eventually find the finish …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him strong and durable with nice hands. He notes Bellato has been working with Luke Rockhold on grappling. He criticizes Paul Craig's game as limited (bad double leg, body kick, imanari roll) and thinks Craig has had his day. He predicts Bellato by TKO.

Craig is +390 underdog; Guru likes the odds for Craig but still picks Bellato
"I'm going with Rulo Balato. I'm sorry. So sorry."
LOSS vs Bo Nickal
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 54 of 85 63% 54 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 47 of 129 36% 48 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 35 37% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bo Nickal 0 22 of 26 84% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 21 of 48 43% 21 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 28 57% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 54 of 85 63% 24 of 50 13 of 16 17 of 19 54 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 47 of 129 36% 21 of 93 14 of 23 12 of 13 47 of 129 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 16 of 31 51% 5 of 17 3 of 5 8 of 9 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 35 37% 4 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 22 of 26 84% 10 of 13 8 of 9 4 of 4 22 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 21 of 48 43% 11 of 33 8 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bo Nickal 16 of 28 57% 9 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 6 16 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 46 28% 6 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 5 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paul Craig vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)

Round 1
A pair of middleweights with 100% finish rates throw down in a clash that could find the winner with a number next to their name come Tuesday. Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) has not encountered much opposition in the cage thus far as a pro, while Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC) cannot say the same. Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the Octagon for this one. There is no touch of gloves. Nickal starts out the initial aggressor, faking takedowns and tossing out a front kick. Nickal comes up short on a reaching left hand, and he changes stances to find another look. Craig absorbs a heavy calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to block a huge swinging left hand. Nickal chops at the front leg two more times as Craig walks him down, and Craig lets loose a body kick. Nickal absorbs a knee on the chin and a left hand, and a hard Craig leg kick makes Nickal take a funny step. Both men unload with power punches at the same time and glance off one another, and Nickal chambers and fires a huge right hand that misses. Craig checks a kick and fires off one that ricochets off the raised guard, and he has a second also blocked. Craig raises his leg as a body shield, and Nickal is unable to get his hands on him. Nickal reaches out with a side kick and a left hand, and Craig kicks him twice in response. Nickal wings another left hand, reaching out far and landing with a glancing blow. Craig checks a kick and slides back to not let Nickal get to him. Craig spins with a fake kick, and he slides back as Nickal aims a body shot. Craig pump-fakes several kicks until letting one loose, and Nickal doubles up on the left hook. Craig jabs his way in, and he starts talking to the unbeaten fighter. Nickal has one kick checked, and the second is not. Craig throws a kick that grazes the shoulder, and he rolls with a right hand that buzzes his hair. Nickal absorbs a right hand on the chin, which holds up well as he backpedals. Craig gets drilled with a left hook, and Nickal pitches another fastball that gives Craig brief pause. Craig again brings up a knee to intercept Nickal, and he chops at the front leg of his foe. Craig kicks his foe in the gloves, and the close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Craig

Round 2
Between rounds, Craig tells his corner how much fun he is having in the cage, grinning from ear to ear. The two start off the round again, with Craig jabbing his way forward into a head kick that comes up short. Craig kicks with his other leg, and he almost falls over but manages to keep his balance. Nickal has a huge right hand come over the top, and he has a kick caught. Craig chatters to his adversary, and Nickal does not change his expression. Nickal scores at the end of a left hand, and Craig responds with a right hand and keeps on talking. Craig swats away Nickal’s outstretched hand, whipping a kick to the guard. Nickal aims a body shot and goes over the top with a left hand, and Craig’s eyes open up a bit wider. Craig blocks a body kick with his knee, and Nickal jabs him in the chest and blasts him with an overhand right. Craig swarms forward with two punches and a high front kick, and he flicks out a jab. Nickal scores a body shot, and he cannot quite block the body kick that comes back his direction. Craig just misses with an uppercut as Nickal ducks down, and he takes a left hand on the chin. Craig lets fly two kicks and eats a body shot on the way back, with Nickal swinging hard with his left hand. The Scot checks a kick and talks to his opponent, and after they shadowbox, he lets fly one more body kick. Nickal winds up with a left hand and thumps his man in the chin, and Craig’s responsive elbow misses by a tiny margin. Craig sticks out a left and then a right, and he launches a body kick that hammers into the wrestler’s arms. Nickal splits the guard with a left and is disciplined enough to block the body kick he knows his coming at him, and he shells up to defend against a second. Nickal steps in with a right hand and catches Craig with a second, and the two both smack one another before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 3
The fighters meet in the middle to start the final frame, and Craig is the one marching forward first. After about 20 seconds, Craig tosses a half-hearted low kick, and Nickal counters him with a heavy right hand over the guard. Craig uses a side kick to push off, and he blocks a body kick. Nickal considers a takedown but abandons it, and he steps back as Craig’s leg whizzes past him. Nickal stands still and lets Craig walk around him, and he laughs and claps hands with his confused foe. Craig kicks the front leg twice, and he aims his shin at the chest after Nickal changes stances. Craig rifles a right hand down the pipe, and Nickal kicks him in the lead leg to respond. Nickal fakes a level change, and the audience showers the fighters with boos for their sparring match. Craig lets loose a high kick, and Nickal thanks him by clapping him on the side of the head with a right hook. Nickal skirts away, blocking a head kick and clipping Craig with a huge left hand. Craig grabs his eye, which starts swelling immediately and he backs up to the cage wall. Nickal corners him but picks his shots very carefully, and he does not engage with more than a right hook. Nickal springs away from a high kick and wings a left hand on the damaged eye, further hurting the Scot. Nickal kicks the front leg and dances away from danger, zipping in and out without much concern of reprisal. Craig jabs a few times, whiffs on a head kick and a front kick. Nickal rips a left to the body, and Craig starts pointing at him as the fans chant “overrated” at Nickal. Craig checks a kick, and Nickal draws his foot back uncomfortably. With seconds to spare, the Penn State wrestler sells out with haymakers, dinging Craig again and eating one in response. The disappointment of a fight comes to an end, and Nickal mimes swinging a golf club and goes over to talk to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been in the building since the end of the prelims.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (30-27 Nickal)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal, calling it a clear win. He notes Nickal's elite wrestling and that Paul Craig is dangerous on the ground but Nickal can grapple with anyone. He speculates Nickal might test his striking since Craig is not dangerous on the feet. He is unsure about betting due to uncertainty over method of victory.

"B Nichols the clear as day pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal by first-round knockout, agreeing with Paul Craig that Nickal should keep the fight standing. He notes that Craig is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, while Nickal has quick hands and power. He believes Nickal will follow Kyle Daukaus' blueprint and knock out Craig early. He also likes the under on 1.5 takedowns for Nickal on PrizePicks.

less than 1.5 takedowns
"I like b nickel here I think he wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody picks Bo Nickal by submission, citing Nickal's elite wrestling and positional dominance. He notes Paul Craig is a one-trick pony with a suspect chin and weak wrestling, and that Nickal can take the fight wherever he wants. Cody expects Nickal to submit Craig, possibly with a rear-naked choke.

submission
"Bo Nichols sub is my official pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor also picks Nickal but is hesitant, acknowledging that Craig's submission game is dangerous. He thinks Nickal's wrestling and athleticism will allow him to scramble and wear Craig out, but Craig could catch him in a submission if Nickal gets too aggressive. Connor is interested in the fight as a test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Vreeland picks Craig as a big underdog because he sees value in Craig's submission threat. He notes Craig subbed Magomed Ankalaev and that Bo Nickal is still inexperienced in Jiu-Jitsu. Vreeland thinks Craig can catch a guillotine on one of Nickal's takedowns or take his back. He also points out that Nickal took over 8 minutes to finish Cody Brundage, suggesting he is not invincible.

"I think there's at least a seven to one chance that that happens... give me Paul Craig"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, acknowledging Paul Craig's impressive submission wins but believing Nickal's wrestling credentials and grappling ability will neutralize Craig's game. He thinks Nickal can keep the fight standing or on the ground and avoid Craig's submissions. He calls it a 'boring' pick but sees Nickal as the clear favorite.

"I'm going to be boring and pick the minus 10,000 favorite"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Fox picks Nickal, citing his athleticism, youth, and wrestling as a cheat code. He believes Craig has no chance against a wrestler of Nickal's caliber. Fox acknowledges the line is steep but is confident Nickal will win.

"obviously the uh athleticism Youth and strength is is a cheat code and um yeah this point in his career uh Craig does not really have a chance here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James confidently picks Bo Nickal, the massive -1000 favorite. He believes Nickal's wrestling can dictate where the fight goes, and even if he shoots takedowns into Craig's guard, he can dominate from top position. He thinks Nickal is smart enough to keep it standing and knock Craig out, or slam him and finish on the ground. He notes Craig's dangerous submissions but feels Nickal will stay safe and win inside the distance, likely in round one.

wins inside the distance, wins in round one
"I think Bo is probably going to stay safe on top so even in Paul Craig's most dangerous realm which is most likely the ground here I still think Bo is going to win that fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Bo Nickal

The host expects Nickal to utilize his striking more effectively, looking for a knockout rather than going into Craig's dangerous guard. However, he notes the plus 200 submission prop on Nickal is worth considering. He officially picks Nickal by knockout.

submission prop at +200
"I do think he'll utilize his striking a little bit more effectively here looking for that knockout against Craig rather than going into the guard which is so dangerous of Craigs although I would not be surprised if Niko wants …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul picks Bo Nickal by knockout, arguing Craig is chinny and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. He expects Nickal to take Craig down, soften him with ground and pound, and eventually knock him out as Craig tires. Paul likes the under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds, knockout
"I'm personally lean towards the knockout I think Bo just Cooks him with a shot as he gets tired"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal, expecting a first-round KO. He acknowledges Paul Craig's submission threat but believes Nickal's wrestling and striking will overwhelm Craig. He notes Nickal's early finishes and thinks Craig's limited striking will be exposed.

first round KO
"I think b nickel is going to knock out Paul Craig on the feet in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane picks Nickal but is not confident, noting that Nickal is raw and was coached through basic grappling in his last fight. He thinks Nickal's athleticism and scrambling ability will wear out Craig, but Craig's submission threat is real. Zane finds the fight interesting because it's a genuine test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission if Nickal makes a mistake
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
KO (punches) R2 2:10 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 50 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:30
Paul Craig 1 36 of 50 72% 43 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 31 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:30
Paul Craig 0 20 of 30 66% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Caio Borralho 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 22 of 48 45% 4 of 19 12 of 23 6 of 6 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 36 of 50 72% 29 of 41 3 of 5 4 of 4 35 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 15 of 29 51% 3 of 9 8 of 16 4 of 4 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 20 of 30 66% 14 of 22 2 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 7 of 19 36% 1 of 10 4 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 15 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Angelo is confident in Borralho, calling Paul Craig overrated and noting he can be finished. He expects Borralho to dominate and possibly finish Craig. He suggests waiting for prop bets.

Angelo says 'let's wait for the props to see what juice we can get going'
"Kyle baral is going to win this fight he should dominate here he should finish Paul Craig"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady sees Borralho as the much better striker and believes he will knock out Craig. He notes Craig's poor chin and recent damage taken. He predicts Borralho will take his time and finish Craig in the second round.

"I think Kyle knocks him out I think Kyle B gets his first UFC knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Cody picks Borralho, citing his superior wrestling, cardio, and durability. He notes Craig relies on submission magic but is poor defensively and has been neutralized by good grapplers. Cody expects Borralho to control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"I think Kyle wins and maybe by decision..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Caio Borralho. He emphasizes that Borralho is a great striker, noting his Contender Series wins over Aaron Jeffery and Jesse Murray were striking performances. Vreeland thinks people forget Borralho's striking because he is Brazilian and assumed to be a jiu-jitsu specialist. He believes Borralho can finish Paul Craig on the feet or on the ground, as Craig is a BJJ specialist but Borralho has the skills to avoid submissions and wear him down. Vreeland also mentions Craig's cardio concerns at middleweight.

"I think people forget that when Kai oh came to the UFC because he's Brazilian people are like oh yeah Jiu-Jitsu but like he came into the UFC with a couple of big striking performan is I think we can …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Vreeland picks Borralho by decision, citing his superior jiu-jitsu (Damaian Maya black belt) and well-rounded game. He notes that Craig's only path is submission, but Borralho's grappling defense should neutralize that. He highlights Borralho's decision-heavy record and suggests the decision prop at +200 as a better value than the -600 moneyline.

Borralho by decision +200
"I think Kyle's gonna win this one by decision and right now the money line on Kyle is what did we say was it minus 600 again yes sir but the decision Props Plus 200"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Jeff Fox picks Caio Borralho despite the steep -550 line. He notes that Borralho has the striking ability to keep the fight standing and potentially knock out Paul Craig, as Borralho stated in an interview. Fox also believes Borralho can replicate what Brendan Allen did on the ground, as he has the pressure and submission defense to avoid Craig's submissions early and wear him down. He questions Craig's cardio at middleweight, noting he appeared to quit in the Allen fight. Fox also highlights Borralho's underrated striking, pointing to his Contender Series performances where he beat Aaron Jeffery on the feet and knocked out Jesse Murray.

Borralho by KO/TKO +250 mentioned as a prop later in the show
"I love C Ohio yeah negative 550 not run into the ticket counter with it but uh yeah I'm still picking him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Caio Borralho

Borralho is superior everywhere and is one of the hottest Brazilian prospects. He will use grappling defensively early, chip away at Craig, and possibly find a knockout. If Craig slows down, Borralho will take him down and smash from top position. Borralho finishes within two or three rounds.

finish within two or three rounds
"look for bajayo to finish this fight within two or three rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Paul picks Borralho, emphasizing his superior grappling, wrestling, and durability. He believes Craig's only path is a submission, but Borralho's BJJ black belt and top control will neutralize that. Paul expects Borralho to stuff takedowns and ground-and-pound.

Borralho by KO/TKO
"I'm thinking he knocks him out... he just stuffs him and gets on top of him and puts a beating on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho, predicting a first-round knockout via a stiff jab. He believes Borralho is a well-rounded, big middleweight with enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing, where Craig is less dangerous. He notes Borralho's recent wins over Abus Magomedov and Maxime Gremont, and expects him to chin Craig early.

first minute or two of the fight he chins Paul Craig and puts him away
"I'm going to go with baralo with a jab knocks down Craig and puts him away"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 0:38 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 32 of 43 74% 52 of 64 2 of 2 100% 2 0 7:58
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 13 of 21 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 14 of 19 73% 20 of 26 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:49
Paul Craig 0 3 of 8 37% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:34
2 Brendan Allen 0 14 of 19 73% 28 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:47
Paul Craig 0 1 of 3 33% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Brendan Allen 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Paul Craig 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 32 of 43 74% 26 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 17 1 of 2 19 of 24
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 14 of 19 73% 9 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 9 1 of 2 7 of 8
Paul Craig 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 16
Paul Craig 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Brendan Allen 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-410), Craig (+320)

Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. Five rounds or less will decide a much-needed contender in the wide-open middleweight division. Two exceptionally talented and dangerous grapplers will ply their trade against one another, and referee Mark Smith will almost certainly get involved before it is said and done. Allen (22-5, 10-2 UFC) is aiming to add to his five-fight win streak, while Craig (17-6-1, 9-6-1 UFC) introduced himself to his lighter weight category by wrecking Andre Muniz in July. Before they inflict all sorts of violence on one another, they come together and stare down, but Craig does not want to touch gloves. They begin, and Craig leads with a low kick. Allen comes back with two punches, and he lands his own leg kick. Allen swings with everything he has, and he nearly topples over when missing. The two trade jabs, and Allen digs one to the breadbasket. They crash together, and Craig looks for a possible level change only to be met with a knee. Craig presses his man to the wall, and he drops down for a possible takedown. Allen stands him up before anything comes of it, but Craig is pressing him tightly against the wire. Allen knees the body and throws Craig over his hips, where he lands in full mount. Craig turns to his side, and Allen hammers him with a few punches and an elbow. Allen gets pulled back to half guard, and he is warned for hooking his toes in the fence. Allen hunts for an arm-triangle choke with pure chest and shoulder pressure, and Craig pushes both of his hands on Allen’s face to stop it. Allen isolates an arm and sneaks around to get the rear-naked choke, but Craig defends brilliantly with a calf slicer. Allen wrenches his leg out and turns around, and he attacks Craig’s ankle to keep him honest. Craig stands back up, and Allen slams him right back down to the mat. Allen smashes down with an elbow, and he cuts Craig’s eyebrow. The horn sounds, and Allen mocks him as they stand up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
The middleweights meander towards one another to start off Round 2, and Allen sits down on a one-two that rocks Craig. Craig weebles and wobbles but does not fall down, and manages to catch Allen with his own right hook on the way. Craig shoots to save his chin, and Allen bowls him over and drives down an elbow. Allen frustrates his opponent with top control and sporadic elbows, and blood flows out of the corner of Craig’s eye. Allen looks for an arm-triangle choke and he steps into full mount, and Craig is in trouble but rolls to his side to break it up. “Bearjew” lands a few heel strikes to the thigh, and Allen answers him with elbows and a few smacking fists. Allen rails Craig with another elbow, and the cut on Craig’s eyebrow splits further. Craig maintains butterfly hooks, and Allen makes his life terrible with elbow after unanswered elbow. Craig throws his legs up to threaten with something, anything he can find, and Allen shucks them to the side and elbows Craig in the busted eye. Allen stacks his man up and gets illegally upkicked, and Smith warns Craig of the fouls. Allen hunts for another arm-triangle choke, and Craig is wise to it and defends before it comes together. Allen sneaks a guillotine under the chin when Craig sits up, and Craig keeps his back against the fence to stop his foe from getting the right leverage. Allen takes Craig’s back with seconds to go, and he looks for another rear-naked choke to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 3
The middleweights reach Round 3, and Allen starts off with his striking. Allen rips a left to the body and rings Craig’s bell with a left up top, and he jumps over Craig and snatches up a guillotine choke. Craig turns well enough to stop the choke from getting locked down, but he turns the wrong way.
Allen sees the opening and snatches it up in an instant, piggybacking Craig and wrapping up a rear-naked choke with practically zero setup. The RNC aficionado—Allen has won his last three fights with this submission—secures it under the chin and it is now a matter of time. The Scot thinks about going out on his shield, but he taps one time on the forearm to signal that he has been defeated.
Smith is right on top of the action and pulls them apart, and Allen confidently nods and calls for a big fight. On his post-fight interview, Allen asks for any top contender, no matter who they put in front of him, and he celebrates with his daughter in his arms. Allen asks her who won, and all smiles, she replies “Da da!” The UFC will be on break for a week, and fight fans in the U.S. will take the time off and celebrate Thanksgiving. When the UFC is back in December, we will be there, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Paul Craig R3 0:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Angelo is very confident in Brendan Allen, citing his five-fight win streak and well-rounded game. He notes Allen has better striking and wrestling than Paul Craig, and is putting everything together at the right time. He has bets on Allen and expects him to win.

Has bets on Allen
"I still like Brendan here I think he's putting everything together at the exact right time in his career I have him winning this fight I am very confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Brendan Allen

Big Brady thinks the odds are silly because Paul Craig is always a live dog with his guard-pulling submissions. He questions Allen's fight IQ, expecting him to grapple despite the smarter path being striking. He picks Allen to win by submission, possibly a club and sub, but notes Craig is dangerous and can never be counted out. He says Allen has more ways to win but the fight could get tricky.

"I got to go Allen here I'll pick him to win this fight by submission maybe a club and sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody picks Brendan Allen confidently, citing his significant advantages on the feet and well-rounded grappling. He notes that Paul Craig's only path is a submission via pulling guard, but Allen's top control and BJJ training make that unlikely. Cody mentions the line is wide but expects Allen to smash Craig, possibly by TKO. He acknowledges Craig's opportunistic submission game but sees Allen as too well-rounded.

Craig by submission at +650 is mentioned as a possible sprinkle, but Cody does not endorse it.
"I'm picking him to win I think he should absolutely Flatline uh Craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Brendan Allen

Allen is the far superior striker with improved striking defense and a dangerous submission game. Craig has sketchy striking and relies on Jiu-Jitsu, but Allen can keep the fight standing and pick him apart. Allen will eventually find a TKO after posturing up with ground and pound, likely in the second or third round.

win by TKO
"I expect Allen to eventually get his hand raised and I think he's going to do it inside the distance give me Brendan Allen I'm going to say TKO after he's able to posture up and get some big shots …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul agrees with Cody, fading Paul Craig as usual. He acknowledges Craig's magic touch and opportunistic submissions but notes that Craig's wins come against opponents with glaring weaknesses. Brendan Allen is young, well-rounded, and trains at a top gym. Paul highlights Allen's submission win over Andre Muniz and his ability to wrestle, grapple, and strike. He sees Craig's suspect gas tank as a liability in a five-round fight and expects Allen to win, likely by TKO.

Paul mentions Craig by submission at +650 as a possible bet but does not recommend it.
"I'm going to agree but how many times have we sat here and talk about how Paul Craig's probably going to get smashed"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen to win by TKO at the end of round one after grappling exchanges. He believes Allen is a better jiu-jitsu player than Andre Muniz and has better takedown defense. He praises Allen's striking, including kicks and boxing, and notes his finishes over Bruno Silva and Krzysztof Jotko. He criticizes Paul Craig's standup and chin, and thinks Allen will land on him.

TKO end of round one
"I'm going to go Brendan Allen over Paul Craig... I think he's a better jiu-jitsu guy than Andre Muniz... I'm going to go with Brendan Allen getting this one done by TKO end of round one after some grappling exchanges …"
WIN vs André Muniz
TKO (elbows) R2 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 40 of 82 48% 54 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:56
André Muniz 0 24 of 40 60% 31 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 9 of 25 36% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
André Muniz 0 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
2 Paul Craig 0 31 of 57 54% 44 of 75 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:56
André Muniz 0 11 of 17 64% 16 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 40 of 82 48% 31 of 66 8 of 15 1 of 1 10 of 32 0 of 0 30 of 50
André Muniz 24 of 40 60% 15 of 30 2 of 3 7 of 7 15 of 27 1 of 1 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 9 of 25 36% 1 of 10 7 of 14 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
André Muniz 13 of 23 56% 4 of 13 2 of 3 7 of 7 13 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Paul Craig 31 of 57 54% 30 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 30 of 50
André Muniz 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
André Muniz

Angelo is split between gut and brain. His gut leans toward Paul Craig's toughness and power, but his brain says Muniz has better wrestling and control. He notes Muniz looked old in his last fight but still gives a slight lean to Muniz because he can control with wrestling. He disagrees with the 2-1 odds on Muniz.

"the ever the slightest lean in the history of liens right now is probably towards Andre Muniz because he can control with the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
André Muniz

Big Brady picks André Muniz to win by first-round submission. He notes Muniz is a much better grappler than Craig, who relies on triangles off his back. He thinks Muniz can take Craig down and submit him, or knock him out on the feet. He mentions Craig's move to middleweight may affect his chin. He is confident Muniz has multiple paths to victory.

first round submission
"give me money is to win this fight I'll say he takes down Paul Craig kind of runs right through him here first round sub for Andre minis in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
André Muniz

Cody thinks Muniz is a terrible matchup for Craig, with superior BJJ and better striking. He questions Craig's weight cut to 185 and notes Craig's wins often come from being dominated then catching a submission. He expects Muniz to roll.

Muniz over 1.5 takedowns
"I can't think of like a worse matchup for him on the roster than Andre Muniz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Muniz

Daniel is uncertain about this fight but sides with Muniz due to his experience at middleweight and his high-level jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Paul Craig's dangerous guard and submission ability, noting Craig has submitted top light heavyweights. However, he is concerned about Craig dropping to 185 and thinks Muniz's grappling is a level above. He mentions that Muniz's last loss was due to fatigue, not skill, and that Craig's weight cut is a risk. He says he usually takes the dog when unsure but goes with the favorite here.

Daniel says 'I'll go with Muniz' but does not mention a bet. He notes the line is -220 and Craig is +185.
"I just really don't know so I'll go with Muniz but let's see"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
André Muniz

James picks Muniz to win by KO. He has a strong read on Muniz, having bet on him multiple times successfully. He believes Muniz is an elite jiu-jitsu player and that Craig won't be able to submit him. He thinks Muniz will crack Craig's chin, as Craig has a bad chin and Muniz hits hard. James notes that Muniz is dropping down in weight, which often doesn't go well, but he still expects a KO. He mentions that Muniz by KO is +350 on BetOnline and he hopes to find better odds elsewhere.

Muniz by KO at +350 (BetOnline), hopes to find +450 elsewhere
"I think moon is going to kill him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
André Muniz

The host picks André Muniz, believing his BJJ black belt will keep him safe on the ground and that he is the better striker. He notes Craig's danger off his back but thinks Muniz can grind him out from top position. He predicts a decision win for Muniz.

"give me Munez to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
André Muniz

Paul agrees, citing Muniz's superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Craig's striking volume is very low and his wrestling is poor. He thinks Muniz will take Craig down and control him, though he doesn't love it as a lock.

Muniz over 1.5 takedowns
"I side with the superior skill set and it belongs to Andre Muniz"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
André Muniz

The MMA Guru picks André Muniz, arguing that Paul Craig's wins come from opponents taking him down, and Craig has poor stand-up. He believes Muniz will stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has a striking advantage. The Guru recalls Muniz wobbling Uriah Hall and predicts a KO win. He also notes Craig's chinny nature and lack of submission threats from top position.

KO
"I am gonna have to go if Andre minus the problem is people have been trying to convince me"
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 3 of 8 37% 0 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 12 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 9 5 of 5 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 3 of 8 37% 0 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 12 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 9 5 of 5 5 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Big Brady picks Johnny Walker to knock out Paul Craig in the first round. He notes Walker is much bigger, more explosive, and has huge power on the feet. Craig's striking is not good and he will likely pull guard, but Walker should disengage and keep it standing. If Walker goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but Walker can also finish with ground and pound. He trusts Walker to get the knockout but warns of sweating if it hits the mat.

first round knockout
"I think Johnny Walker puts out Paul Craig and I think he does it in the first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Cody picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ under John Kavanagh. He says Walker can dictate range, use footwork, and potshot Paul Craig. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous BJJ but thinks Walker will keep the fight standing and avoid the ground. He mentions Walker's power and ability to knock out Craig. He also notes Craig's poor striking and takedown defense.

parlayed Walker with Gilbert Burns; mentions Walker's submission win over Ihor Potieria
"I like Johnny Walker as well I think Johnny Walker at his best he's kind of already done this matchup with Misha chirconov"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Connor picks Paul Craig, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Walker's new passive style is worse than his old reckless one, and that Craig will pressure and likely land clean shots. Connor also mentions that Walker has never been submitted but that Craig is a submission specialist who could catch him.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"I'll take Paul Craig. I have zero faith in what Johnny Walker's been doing."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Paul picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ. He says Walker can keep the fight standing and avoid Craig's BJJ. He mentions Craig's poor striking and takedown defense, and says Walker has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges Craig's submission wins over top guys but thinks Walker will fight smart and avoid the ground.

parlayed Walker with Gilbert Burns; mentions Walker's submission win over Ihor Potieria
"I parlay Johnny Walker who's plus 170 or minus 175 on the ticket with Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The Guru is confident Walker will KO Craig. He highlights Walker's underrated grappling, noting he reversed Krylov and has improved rapidly. Craig has no striking threat, so Walker will be confident on the feet. The Guru predicts Walker will rock Craig, force a bad takedown, and finish with ground and pound, similar to the Ryan Spann fight.

KO via ground and pound
"I'm going with Johnny Walker I think Paul Craig is going to get ko'd in this fight and I can see it happening to ground and pound"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Zane picks Paul Craig, citing that Craig has a reliable bag of tricks and will be aggressive, while Johnny Walker has regressed under SPG coaching, becoming passive and lacking a functional style. Zane notes that grappling is light heavyweight secret sauce, and Craig is a submission artist who can exploit Walker's poor grappling.

Craig opened at +130, now +158; Walker opened at -150, now -193. Zane does not place a bet.
"I'm gonna pick Paul Craig because at least Paul Craig has like a reliable bag of tricks."