Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
Career Averages - Jared Cannonier
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 84 of 149 | 56% | 100 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 80 of 140 | 57% | 98 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 84 of 149 | 56% | 56 of 112 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 74 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 80 of 140 | 57% | 69 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 52 | 48% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 21 of 44 | 47% | 10 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 13 | 84% | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 32 of 51 | 62% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 48 of 84 | 57% | 36 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.
Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.
Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.
Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.
Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.
The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.
Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.
The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.
Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 59 of 131 | 45% | 59 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 75 of 157 | 47% | 75 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 59 of 131 | 45% | 17 of 67 | 10 of 26 | 32 of 38 | 59 of 131 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 75 of 157 | 47% | 19 of 87 | 6 of 15 | 50 of 55 | 74 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 32 | 46% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 16 of 33 | 48% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 60 | 48% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 7 | 20 of 23 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 67 | 37% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 31 of 65 | 47% | 11 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 20 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.
Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.
Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.
The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.
The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.
Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 52 of 81 | 64% | 82 of 117 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 70 of 92 | 76% | 112 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 33 of 47 | 70% | 54 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 46 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 52 of 81 | 64% | 41 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 70 of 92 | 76% | 26 of 46 | 23 of 24 | 21 of 22 | 62 of 83 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 33 of 47 | 70% | 13 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 28 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 26 of 46 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 35 of 42 | 83% | 12 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)
Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.
Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.
James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.
Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.
Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 61 of 125 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 52 | 23% | 12 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 31 of 71 | 43% | 8 of 31 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 19 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 27 of 85 | 31% | 14 of 60 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 53 | 47% | 7 of 24 | 6 of 14 | 12 of 15 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 52 | 23% | 1 of 32 | 1 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.
Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 53 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 71 of 93 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 51 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 39 | 58% | 17 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 15 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 22 of 37 | 59% | 16 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.
Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.
Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.
Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.
Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.
The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 107 of 193 | 55% | 184 of 276 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:06 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 78 of 161 | 48% | 99 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 28 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 34 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 51 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 28 of 47 | 59% | 64 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 107 of 193 | 55% | 67 of 146 | 29 of 33 | 11 of 14 | 85 of 169 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 18 |
| Israel Adesanya | 78 of 161 | 48% | 32 of 102 | 17 of 23 | 29 of 36 | 77 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 13 of 30 | 43% | 2 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 12 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 49 | 46% | 9 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 21 of 42 | 50% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 24 of 42 | 57% | 18 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 21 of 40 | 52% | 12 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 24 | 58% | 12 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Israel Adesanya | 11 of 20 | 55% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 28 of 47 | 59% | 25 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 13 |
| Israel Adesanya | 12 of 29 | 41% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya based on speed, footwork, and counter-striking ability. He notes that Adesanya walks around light (193 lbs) to stay fast and quick, and will use his range to frustrate Błachowicz. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and ground game but believes Adesanya's movement and counters will be decisive.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya, citing his massive speed and volume advantages. He doubts Błachowicz can close the distance or get takedowns, noting Błachowicz hasn't attempted takedowns in recent fights. He predicts a kickboxing fight and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He would bet Adesanya if the line drops to -190.
Daniel picks Israel Adesanya to win and become a two-division champion, citing his speed, technique, and diverse striking. He acknowledges Jan Błachowicz's power and puncher's chance but believes Adesanya's skill set will be too much.
Jacob picks Adesanya because he thinks Adesanya has the best walk-in dance he's ever seen, referencing the fight against Robert Whittaker. This is a lighthearted reason, but he clearly states his pick.
Adesanya's striking wizardry and calf kicks should be key, but Błachowicz has power and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. The host expects a tough fight and predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round) for Adesanya, but advises caution due to Błachowicz's power.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the third or fourth round. He believes Adesanya's striking precision and speed will be too much for Błachowicz, who is flat-footed and loads up his kicks. He predicts Adesanya will chop at the legs early, frustrate Błachowicz, and catch him rushing in with a counter hook, similar to how Thiago Santos finished him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 41 of 89 | 46% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 41 of 89 | 46% | 25 of 70 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 37 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 15 of 36 | 41% | 2 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 26 of 53 | 49% | 23 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.
Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.
The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.
Jared Cannonier - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 46 of 88 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 8:14 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 12 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 24 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 57 | 35% | 10 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 29 of 55 | 52% | 19 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes this is a tailor-made matchup for MVP, as his speed and karate style will be too much for the powerful but slow Cannonier. He notes MVP has outstruck everyone in the UFC, including Ian Garry, and can pop in and out safely. He is surprisingly confident in MVP.
Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes Page is an incredible striker with a unique style that makes him hard to hit, and he has outlanded top strikers like Ian Garry and Kevin Holland. He thinks Cannonier will struggle to take Page down, as Cannonier has only one fight with more than one takedown. He favors Page heavily in distance striking and thinks Page wins a decision, possibly a knockout. He also mentions a prop bet on Page under 54.5 significant strikes.
Connor picks Page, arguing that Page can frustrate Cannonier from range and that Cannonier is slowing down and less likely to have fight-stealing moments. He notes that Page is comfortable with boring fights and can make Cannonier look slow and cumbersome. However, he acknowledges that Cannonier's strength in the clinch could be a problem, but Page's ability to tie up after striking may mitigate that.
The host believes Page's elusive striking style will be too much for the veteran Cannonier. He predicts Page will pick apart Cannonier and eventually find a knockout in the second round.
The Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by decision over Jared Cannonier. He believes Cannonier will be too technical and hesitant to pressure Page effectively, instead opting for a low-output striking match. The Guru notes that Cannonier has a history of not taking risks, as seen in his fights with Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa. He expects Page to outpoint Cannonier with movement and occasional highlights, winning a dull decision.
Zane picks Page, noting that Page is a master of body language and can make even close rounds feel like his. He believes Cannonier is a middleweight version of Josh Koscheck, a tough but limited fighter who is winding down. Zane thinks Page's ability to pick his shots and avoid engagement will frustrate Cannonier, who doesn't cut off the cage well. He sees Page as a meme fighter who can carve a path to the top of the division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 2 | 98 of 201 | 48% | 109 of 215 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 93 of 221 | 42% | 95 of 225 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 31 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 33 of 72 | 45% | 35 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 43 of 87 | 49% | 43 of 87 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 98 of 201 | 48% | 59 of 157 | 20 of 23 | 19 of 21 | 69 of 161 | 20 of 25 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 93 of 221 | 42% | 65 of 188 | 21 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 85 of 208 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 22 of 38 | 57% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 33 of 72 | 45% | 15 of 50 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 28 of 65 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 68 | 36% | 16 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 34 of 78 | 43% | 27 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 43 of 87 | 49% | 33 of 76 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 9 of 13 | 69% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.
Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.
Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.
Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.
Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.
Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 83 of 254 | 32% | 83 of 254 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 153 of 255 | 60% | 156 of 258 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 26 of 70 | 37% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 58 | 63% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 50 of 69 | 72% | 53 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 83 of 254 | 32% | 57 of 206 | 11 of 24 | 15 of 24 | 82 of 252 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 255 | 60% | 106 of 197 | 26 of 37 | 21 of 21 | 129 of 224 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 12 of 34 | 35% | 4 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 15 of 32 | 46% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 26 of 70 | 37% | 18 of 53 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 8 | 25 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 15 of 58 | 25% | 14 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 37 of 58 | 63% | 24 of 44 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 50 | 38% | 11 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 11 of 42 | 26% | 10 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 50 of 69 | 72% | 42 of 60 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 28 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho, citing his high fight IQ and slick grappling. He notes that Borralho is a 'fighting nerd' who makes smart adjustments mid-fight, and that his head is massive and hard to put out. He acknowledges Cannonier's power and the short notice for both, but believes Borralho's intelligence and size advantage will carry him.
Cody thinks the betting line on Borralho is inflated. He notes Cannonier is a tough veteran who has fought top competition and has good takedown defense and get-up game. He believes Borralho may try to be entertaining instead of wrestling, which plays into Cannonier's hands. He also mentions Cannonier's price of +190 is too good to pass up.
Daniel Vreeland is not fully confident but leans toward Jared Cannonier. He argues that Borralho's competition has been unranked and his striking volume is low, while Cannonier has proven output against top fighters. He worries about Cannonier's age and recent stoppage loss but believes the volume and experience advantage will be decisive unless Cannonier has declined overnight.
JP picks Borralho by decision, noting he is 6-0 in the UFC and hasn't lost since 2015. He highlights Borralho's grappling match against heavyweight Jilton Almeida as evidence of his skills. He thinks Cannonier is 40 and inconsistent. Brevin agrees, picking Borralho, praising his striking style similar to Michael Venom Page with explosive entries, and his good grappling. He thinks Cannonier will try to pressure but Borralho's in-and-out movement will be effective.
Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Cannonier because of his experience and plus money. He notes Cannonier is 40 and coming off knee surgery but has fought the best. He thinks Borralho might try to be aggressive to impress, which could lead to his demise. Paul also mentions that Borralho's low volume and risk-averse style might not work against a durable veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho by rear-naked choke. He notes Cannonier's takedown defense is good but he gives up his back often. He believes Borralho's back-take ability and momentum from his win over Paul Craig will be key. He also cites Cannonier's age (40) and quick turnaround after a near-finish loss to Nassourdine Imavov. He trusts Borralho's improving standup and the Fighting Nerds team.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 102 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:18 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 82 of 134 | 61% | 106 of 159 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 38 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 64 of 109 | 58% | 42 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 17 | 58 of 100 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 82 of 134 | 61% | 61 of 112 | 16 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 64 of 114 | 17 of 19 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 21 of 32 | 65% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 14 of 30 | 46% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 17 of 32 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 28 of 46 | 60% | 19 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 34 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 21 of 32 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 26 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, citing his impressive performance against Marvin Vettori where he showed forward pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He acknowledges that Imavov is good and just dominated Roman Dolidze, but he is impressed with Cannonier's last fight. He thinks the best version of Cannonier wins, and he is crossing his fingers that version shows up.
Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier to win by split decision. He notes that Cannonier is 40 but looks better than ever, with impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He expects Imavov to have early success but fade, while Cannonier's five-round cardio and takedown defense will allow him to take over. He predicts a close 48-47 split decision.
Cody picks Cannonier based on his proven cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Cannonier's ability to maintain high volume over five rounds, as seen in the Marvin Vettori fight where he landed 241 significant strikes. Cody acknowledges the concerns about Cannonier's age (40) and the two-year layoff due to an MCL tear, but believes his gas tank and power will be too much for Imavov, who has shown cardio issues in the past. He expects Cannonier to win a competitive decision.
Daniel leans towards Imavov due to his youth, speed, and improved defense since the Strickland fight. He worries about Imavov's high-energy style causing a late fade, allowing Cannonier to take over in the championship rounds. He notes Cannonier's durability and high output, especially in the Vettori fight, but sees Imavov's early movement and speed as key to banking rounds. Ultimately, he calls it a tough fight that could go either way.
Jacob is very confident in Jared Cannonier, stating he will not pick against him until someone beats him over five rounds. He notes that Imavov might have early success, but Cannonier's veteran savvy and cardio will take over. He predicts Cannonier wins a decision and makes another title run. He considered Cannonier as lock of the week but the odds were too close.
Cannonier has power, speed, and explosiveness to crash the pocket and disrupt Imavov's range striking. Imavov may get demoralized when his range control fails, as seen against Strickland. Cannonier can land big shots, change levels for takedowns, and grind out a decision or even a KO. At +105, he's a solid underdog bet.
Paul leans towards Cannonier but is hesitant due to the injury and layoff. He notes that Cannonier's price at plus money seems like good value given his resume, but the torn MCL and age are concerns. Paul thinks Cannonier's reach advantage and pressure will be key, and he expects Imavov to struggle with Cannonier's volume and power as the fight goes on. He predicts a competitive fight but sees Cannonier getting the nod.
The Guru picks Cannonier because Imavov slows down in fights and lacks finishing instinct, as seen against Roman Dolidze and Buckley. He notes Cannonier gets better as the fight goes on and can walk Imavov down, chew up his legs, and work him against the cage in the later rounds. He says if it were a three-rounder he'd take Imavov, but in a five-rounder Cannonier builds into it and wins a split decision. He also mentions Cannonier looked phenomenal against Vettori and that Imavov hasn't shown he's clearly better than that level of middleweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 153 of 301 | 50% | 154 of 302 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 241 of 411 | 58% | 257 of 428 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 38 of 71 | 53% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 24 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 82 of 125 | 65% | 94 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 81 | 60% | 52 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 50 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 301 | 50% | 117 of 257 | 15 of 21 | 21 of 23 | 148 of 293 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 241 of 411 | 58% | 173 of 339 | 39 of 43 | 29 of 29 | 195 of 354 | 26 of 31 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 38 of 71 | 53% | 31 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 29 of 66 | 43% | 14 of 51 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 24 of 50 | 48% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 82 of 125 | 65% | 62 of 104 | 15 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 58 of 96 | 12 of 13 | 12 of 16 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 31 of 50 | 62% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 81 | 60% | 36 of 66 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 70 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 37 of 76 | 48% | 26 of 63 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 37 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 32 of 57 | 56% | 22 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 23 of 54 | 42% | 16 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 82 | 59% | 39 of 72 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, trusting his chin and pressure. He notes that Vettori's takedowns and volume should be effective against Jared Cannonier, who can be gun shy at 39. Vettori lands more significant strikes and has only lost to top competition. Angelo has a half unit moneyline bet on Vettori at minus 145.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori to win by decision. He believes Vettori will implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, pushing Cannonier against the cage and taking him down, similar to Israel Adesanya's second fight strategy. He notes Cannonier hasn't faced many wrestlers recently and has been taken down in the past by Derek Brunson and David Branch. Brady emphasizes Vettori's superior cardio, toughness, and durability, and thinks he can win minutes with control and grappling over 25 minutes. He does not expect a finish but sees a clear path to a decision win.
Cody initially gravitates toward Vettori due to his elite generalist skills, cardio, and durability, but he reconsiders after reviewing Cannonier's last fight against Sean Strickland, where Cannonier landed 141 significant strikes and proved he can maintain pace for five rounds despite his muscular build. He notes that Vettori's wrestling may not be good enough to take Cannonier down and hold him there, and that Vettori's last fight against Roman Dolidze was a close call where many thought he lost. Cody ultimately leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes, but acknowledges the fight could go either way and recommends betting live rather than pre-fight.
Connor picks Vettori, citing his consistency, durability, and high output. He argues that Vettori is more reliable minute-to-minute than Cannonier, and that Cannonier's lack of a systematic approach will allow Vettori to outwork him. Connor expects a five-round decision where Vettori lands more strikes and edges out rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing comparable volume but a significant power advantage for Cannonier. He notes Cannonier's high output against Strickland (140+ significant strikes) and believes Cannonier lands the harder shots that impress judges. He expects a decision win for Cannonier, though acknowledges a finish is possible. He also mentions Cannonier's leg kicks as a key weapon and Vettori's susceptibility to them. He got Cannonier at +100 and expects the fight to be close but favors Cannonier's power.
Cannonier lands more significant strikes over a prolonged period, similar to what Roman Dolidze did but for longer. Vettori's striking is improving but he will struggle to implement his clinch/grappling game because Cannonier is tough to keep in one spot and difficult to hold down. Cannonier keeps the fight upright, uses leg kicks and movement, and lands big shots down the middle. Vettori is very durable so Cannonier wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting the line has shortened from +130s to near pick'em, which he considers sharp. He thinks Vettori can take Cannonier down but cannot hold him down and maintain position. He likes the over 2 takedowns prop for Vettori but is not fully committed. He leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes over 25 minutes but says anything could happen.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Marvin Vettori, arguing Cannonier is more dynamic with leg kicks, body kicks, and elbows, while Vettori mostly boxes. He compares their common opponents: Cannonier held his own against Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, while Vettori was schooled by both. He also notes Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson, while Vettori went to a decision. He predicts a 49-46 decision win for Cannonier.
Zane picks Cannonier because he believes Cannonier's power will be the deciding factor. He notes that Cannonier is not consistent but has a 'get out of jail free card' with his power, and that Vettori has been pushed out of his fight by power punchers like Whittaker and Adesanya. Zane expects a close fight where Cannonier's power wins out over Vettori's durability and output.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 141 of 310 | 45% | 141 of 310 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 152 of 400 | 38% | 157 of 410 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 17 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 28 of 73 | 38% | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 27 of 61 | 44% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 33 of 87 | 37% | 34 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 40 of 79 | 50% | 40 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 43 of 111 | 38% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 141 of 310 | 45% | 57 of 187 | 60 of 88 | 24 of 35 | 141 of 310 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 152 of 400 | 38% | 126 of 365 | 24 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 152 of 400 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 16 of 43 | 37% | 3 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 13 of 48 | 27% | 9 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 25 of 58 | 43% | 6 of 28 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 12 | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 28 of 73 | 38% | 23 of 64 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 33 of 69 | 47% | 12 of 40 | 15 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 35 of 81 | 43% | 28 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 27 of 61 | 44% | 14 of 39 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 33 of 87 | 37% | 29 of 83 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 40 of 79 | 50% | 22 of 54 | 16 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 40 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 43 of 111 | 38% | 37 of 102 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-115), Cannonier (-105)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight for the final UFC match of this year, and it might be one with immediate championship implications depending on the result. Coming off his unsuccessful jaunt for the belt, the lead-fisted Cannonier (15-6, 8-6 UFC) is motivated for one last title run and has to get through Strickland (25-4, 12-4 UFC) to do so. On the other hand, Strickland’s last time out saw him get crushed by the current champ Alex Pereira, one in which he promises would be different should they meet again. Herb Dean will serve as the referee for the final UFC fight of the year, and it begins with a smile from the two fighters and an enthusiastic fist bump. The first strike that lands is a leg kick from Cannonier that bounces off the kneecap. Strickland takes notes and measures his jab, pawing it out a few times, and Cannonier bears down on him with two wide punches. Another Cannonier kick makes Strickland pick up the leg to attempt to check it, but he does not block it. Cannonier kicks high and then goes low to the calf again, and this one lands flush. Cannonier fakes an overhand right, and he lands at the end of a second one. Strickland does not bat an eye, reaching with jabs and slapping a kick to the hip. Cannonier steps through two jabs to plant a right hand on the jaw, and he closes in on Strickland as Strickland jabs repeatedly. A pair of oblique kicks land to the knee for Cannonier, and Strickland starts getting in his groove of jabs and short arcing lefts. “The Killa Gorilla” hits air when he launches an overhand right, and Strickland sees it coming and dodges a second. Cannonier plants the ball of his foot on the ribcage, and he backs Strickland up and cannot quite get around the guard or connect cleanly with a kick. Cannonier kicks to the side, and it gets caught. Strickland tosses Cannonier down to the floor, and Cannonier muscles his way back up without staying grounded. They both get back to their feet, and Strickland holds his man from behind while smacking him with right hands. Strickland does not go after a takedown, and he bails on the clinch when Cannonier turns around. Cannonier slowly walks forward, and he fakes with an overhand right and smashes his shin into the calf. Strickland takes a funny step and retreats, and he measures his jab to fluster the advancing Alaskan. A kick from Cannonier careens off the guard, and he fires one off with the other leg to the calf. One more on the inside makes Strickland preemptively pick up his lead leg, possibly showing that the kicks are bothering him. He skates out of the way of an advancing Cannonier, who cannot catch him with a power blow before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start Round 2, and Cannonier delivers a leg kick home to begin. The kicks, and faked kicks, are making Strickland flinch. Cannonier winds up with a kick to the body, and when it gets caught, he is thrown to the mat again. Cannonier somersaults away and gets to his feet before Strickland can bear down on him and grab him, and they resume in the center of the cage. Strickland flashes out several jabs, and Cannonier is more reliant on power punches and kicks. Strickland dances out of the way when a right hand comes his direction, and he times the lunges of “The Killa Gorilla” with sharp jabs. The jab pace from Strickland increases as he sticks it on Cannonier’s face again and again, and he keeps it busy to not let Cannonier crowd him. Cannonier reaches the body with a right hand, and it is one-and-done while Strickland keeps jabbing him. Two heavy leg kicks find their target on the calf, and the second, Strickland swings his leg with it to take some of the sting out of it. Cannonier keeps beating on that left leg, forcing Strickland to start thinking about switching stances. Cannonier swings with all his might and comes up short with a haymaker of a right hand, and Strickland sees it and evades it. Cannonier fires another, and the left to set it up is the one that connects while the overhand right whiffs. Strickland sticks his man with a jab and a right hand, and he splits the guard with repeated jabbing. Cannonier cannot find the spot with his right hand, and they start talking to each other as Cannonier tells his foe to sit still. Cannonier kicks low and punches high, and the first lands while the second misses. “Tarzan” remains composed, swinging from side to side and dodging most of the power strikers while peppering the lunging Cannonier. As if we were shot out of a cannon, Cannonier charges, and his punches would blow back the hair if Strickland had any. Strickland keeps his distance and pops Cannonier with a few more lengthy punches until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
Cannonier flicks his hand out to receive the half-hearted glove touch, and they pick up right where they left off, with Strickland imposing his jab-heavy game plan. Cannonier lightly oblique kicks the knee, and he gets stunned by a piston-like jab from Strickland. Cannonier connects with a solid leg kick, and he jabs to the midsection. Strickland splits the guard with a few more jabs and a push kick as well, and he starts to follow his jabs with slapping right hands on the side of the head. Cannonier kicks the body, and it hits the block without issue. A Cannonier overhand is blocked, and he kicks on the other side suddenly to slip beneath the guard. Strickland continues to fluster the power puncher with his effective jabs, and Cannonier cannot quite bridge the gap to land with his overhand right. “The Killa Gorilla” goes after the lead leg again, and Strickland’s expression has not changed one iota even while battling it out against a heavy striker. Cannonier finds the end of a right hand, and he chains another left hook into a right hand that knocks Strickland back into the wall. Strickland walks it off and continues to pepper with jabs, and he chains four punches together to drive Cannonier back. Cannonier loads up with two power blows, but he misses the mark cleanly by a matter of inches. Settling for a leg kick, Cannonier maintains a relatively high guard to anticipate the jabs that come. Strickland successfully checks a swinging leg kick, and he pecks at Cannonier with punches in small bunches. Cannonier swings for the bleachers and nearly ends up in the stands after missing with his powerful blows, and they begin to start chatting again. Cannonier targets the body with straighter lefts, and Strickland actively jabs comfortably. Cannonier scores at the end of a left hand, and the close round ends. It would not be surprising if judges possibly had it three rounds in favor of either man now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
Between rounds, Strickland’s coach slaps him in the face to get him going, as if Strickland weren’t already dealing with enough strikes coming his way. The top middleweights move into the championship rounds actively throwing hands, and Cannonier continues to press forward while Strickland is comfortable fighting off his back foot with jabs peppering his foe. Strickland gets off a trio of punches and a kick to the body, and he is answered with a leg kick that makes him pick it up ever so briefly. Cannonier walks through a jab to throw, but he does not swing it, just eating punches for nothing. Strickland powerfully checks another kick and plants two punches on the chin, and Cannonier is stalled out in front of his foe who is now starting to walk him down. Cannonier takes three clean punches that sting him, and he shakes it out but does not throw back. The jab has neutralized the offense for the last minute or two, and he connects with a one-two to decent effect. Cannonier sinks in an inside leg kick after a lull in offense, and he wings a heavy blow that glances off the shoulder. Strickland’s footwork and head movement keep him safe from harm when his jab does not keep Cannonier off of him. Strickland gets off a short left hand to drive Cannonier away, and he whips a high kick up and has a front kick graze off the jaw. Cannonier loads up with an overhand right and gets knocked back with a right hand for his handiwork. Cannonier takes a couple jabs on the jaw in an effort to march through then and throw hands, but Strickland sees them coming and moves. Strickland wraps his hands around the guard, and Cannonier finally finds his intended target with a few power punches. Strickland ties him up after absorbing the heavy shots, and he backs up against the wall and smiles. Strickland scores in response, and Cannonier comes at him right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
The last round of the last fight of the UFC this year is on, and the coaches are extremely fired up and trying to channel their energy to their fighters, not knowing how the judges are scoring this fight. Cannonier lashes out with a low kick, and Strickland pins a few punches on the chin with a little more heat on them. While jabbing and parrying, Strickland throws a little harder at his opponent. Cannonier jabs the body and hand-fights to find a way in, and he scores a left hand. Strickland staggers him with a few right hands over the top, and Cannonier talks to him and tells him to stand in front of him and trade. Cannonier swings hammers, and Strickland sticks and moves with a double jab and a right hand down the pipe. Cannonier rings his man’s bell with a right hand on the temple, and he snaps the head back with another as Strickland has to blink it out. “Tarzan” recovers and pushes out jabs and a short combo, and he absorbs a low kick on the way back. Cannonier unloads with two big punches that knock the head around, ignoring the jab so that he can connect cleanly. This second land from Cannonier wakes Strickland up, who strings together a lengthy combination as his nose begins to bleed. Strickland gets back into his jab-heavy approach, swatting away the punches that zoom past him. Cannonier sets up a jab and chain a right hand into it, and Strickland is getting marked up as Cannonier is ignoring jabs to strike. Cannonier swings with a back fist that goes wide, and he loads up on a left that breezes past the chin. The final minute begins with a brief brawl, and Cannonier strikes and gets knocked back by the responsive salvo. Strickland walks into a winging left hand and still stays composed sticking out jabs, and he catches an overswinging Cannonier with a few strikes. They both put big power into their strikes, and they throw fire in the form of punches, kicks and anything else they can muster until the bitter end. Neither man goes down, and they have reached the final bell. It truly could go either way. It was a fight. With this event in the books, we have reached the end of the year, with 42 UFC fight cards carrying on across 2022. Our next play-by-play will run on Jan. 14 in what could be a fun Fight Night event with a fantastic co-main event. Thank you for joining us this year on all of the action that the UFC has had to put on. We will be here for the next year, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)
The Official Result
Jared Cannonier def. Sean Strickland via Split Decision (49-46, 46-49, 49-46)
Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, believing he is the more dangerous, stronger, and faster fighter. He thinks Cannonier has a good enough chin to handle Strickland's arm punches but needs to pick up the volume. He notes that if Cannonier lets his hands go, it could be one-sided, but if not, he could get jabbed to death. He considers Strickland overrated.
Big Brady picks Cannonier, liking his power and expecting Strickland to stand and trade. He notes Strickland said he has no game plan and will just walk forward and brawl. He thinks Cannonier will have 25 minutes to land a big shot, especially since Strickland was recently knocked down. He predicts Cannonier wins by knockout, possibly in any round.
Cody picks Strickland, believing he can execute a 25-minute game plan with high volume. He argues Strickland learned from the Pereira loss and can be smarter against Cannonier. He doesn't see Cannonier as an elite finisher like Pereira, so Strickland's durability and volume should earn a decision.
Strickland's style is better suited for Cannonier than for a taller fighter like Alex Pereira. Cannonier's knockout power is overrated due to Strickland's recent KO loss, but Strickland's pressure and volume should wear on Cannonier as the fight goes on. Expect close first two rounds, then Strickland pulls away. Strickland's durability and pace are key.
Paul picks Cannonier because he believes Strickland needs to fight a perfect fight to win, while Cannonier can land a bomb. He notes Cannonier has five-round experience and cardio, and lands more damaging shots. He took Cannonier at plus money, acknowledging it's not a lock but his side.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Sean Strickland, predicting a second-round KO. He believes Strickland is too basic and readable on the feet, and Cannonier will find his chin with hooks over the jab. He notes Cannonier's reach advantage and leg kicks, and compares Strickland's vulnerability to Alex Pereira's striking. He thinks Cannonier is the next best contender after Whittaker and Adesanya, and that Strickland is not elite at middleweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 116 of 230 | 50% | 163 of 277 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 90 of 157 | 57% | 141 of 217 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 35 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 116 of 230 | 50% | 60 of 165 | 26 of 31 | 30 of 34 | 114 of 226 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 90 of 157 | 57% | 36 of 89 | 32 of 40 | 22 of 28 | 78 of 143 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 22 of 48 | 45% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 18 of 28 | 64% | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 28 of 48 | 58% | 12 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 31 | 61% | 6 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 35 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 17 of 36 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 16 of 36 | 44% | 8 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 25 of 54 | 46% | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 26 | 76% | 14 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.
Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.
Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.
Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.
Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.
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