UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · Jul 08, 2017 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rob Font
5.11 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.53 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.7 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Douglas Silva de Andrade
3.54 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.54 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Rob Font - Fight History
LOSS vs Raul Rosas Jr.
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 0 10 of 31 32% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:13
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 8 of 33 24% 47 of 75 16 of 18 88% 0 1 10:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 0 7 of 20 35% 8 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 5 of 22 22% 12 of 29 5 of 6 83% 0 0 2:11
2 Rob Font 0 0 of 2 0% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 1 of 5 20% 17 of 23 3 of 3 100% 0 1 4:07
3 Rob Font 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 23 8 of 9 88% 0 0 3:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 10 of 31 32% 6 of 25 2 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 8 of 33 24% 5 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 4 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 7 of 20 35% 4 of 15 1 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 5 of 22 22% 2 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 4 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rob Font 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Rob Font 3 of 9 33% 2 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Angelo highlights that Rob Font is a technical striker with no takedown defense, while Raul Rosas is a relentless grappler with fantastic control. He expects Rosas to wrestle and get as many takedowns as he wants, as long as he doesn't try to box with Font. He calls it a Raul showcase.

"This should be a Raul showcase."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Rob Font. He highlights Font's poor takedown defense (43%) and tendency to be controlled on the ground, as seen in the Cory Sandhagen fight. Rosas Jr. has improved cardio and should be able to take Font down and hold him there. Brady expects a decision win for Rosas Jr., as Font has good defensive grappling but won't take risks to get up.

Rosas Jr. by decision
"It's Ral Roses Jr. by decision. I think it's a good match up for him."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Cody leans toward Rosas Jr., citing Font's poor takedown defense and Rosas's youth and improvement. He notes Font's age and slowing down, and expects Rosas to rack up control time and win a decision. He mentions the Chiawei effect as a factor.

"I'm kind of leaning towards Rosas, but a lot of it is like you're just trying to believe."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Connor picks Rosas, citing Font's poor takedown defense (43% career) and Rosas's relentless wrestling. He notes that Font got taken down seven times by John Matsumoto and still won, but Sandhagen's disciplined wrestling led to a loss. Connor believes Rosas's commitment to wrestling will be enough, despite Rosas's underdeveloped striking and youth. He acknowledges Font's toughness but sees a clear path for Rosas.

Odds: Font opened at +375, now +210; Rosas opened at -500, now -245.
"I am going to take Rosas. I think any fight for Rob font with an opponent who is completely committed to wrestling him, he's going to have a really hard time stopping the takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing Rob Font's poor takedown defense and getup game, especially as he fatigues. He believes Rosas has matured since his loss to Cristian Rodriguez and will submit Font. Vreeland acknowledges Font's experience but thinks Rosas's grappling will be the difference.

"I'm going to go Rahul Rosas to get the biggest win of his career and pass this gatekeeper test against Rob Font in Vegas."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

The host argues that Raul Rosas Jr. is a good bet despite being a favorite because of the extreme age gap (18 years younger), Font's poor takedown defense (42% takedown offense, gave up takedowns to Matsumoto, Figueiredo, Sandhagen), and Font's reliance on volume striking rather than power. He believes Rosas Jr. will stick to Font like glue, outgrapple him, and win two out of three rounds. He notes that Font's windows to strike will be slim due to constant takedown threats.

Implied probability 69%, but host notes he is selective with bets in this odds range; he has a 72% win rate and 5% ROI on 308 bets in this range over 13 years.
"I think it's just going to be very difficult for Rob Font to win this fight because I don't see him being able to keep the fight standing for long enough to make his edge on the feet count."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rob Font

James picks Rob Font as an underdog, believing Font is the much better striker who will win the minutes on the feet. He acknowledges Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat but questions whether Rosas can hold Font down for extended periods, citing Font's ability to get back up in recent fights. James also notes that Rosas has never fought at this level and has been reversed in previous fights, making Font the value side. However, he admits Font's chin is a concern and that Rosas could hurt him.

"I'm going to pick Rob Font as the underdog here. I feel like the line should be closer."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Rosas Jr. is persistent with his grappling and will eventually take Font down and control him. Font has been susceptible to wrestlers. Rosas should win a decision, but the line is too high; only play if it drops to -150.

Rosas Jr. by decision
"I expect Rosas Jr. to get that control in the first, second, maybe even third rounds and that should be enough for him to win a decision here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Paul picks Rosas Jr. but with hesitation, noting his takedown ability but concerns about gassing. He thinks Rosas will get early takedowns and control, but Font's get-up game is good. He suggests betting live after seeing if Font can get back up.

"I think Ral Rosa is going to win if I was like forced to play it right now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing his relentless grappling and Font's struggles against grapplers (e.g., Sandhagen). He believes Rosas will take Font down and control him, winning by decision. He mentions the New England Cartel curse.

decision win
"I'm gonna go with Raul Rosas Jr. decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

Zane picks Font, noting that Font has been taken down many times but still wins fights. He points out that Rosas's game is limited and that Font's experience and ability to do damage on the feet will be key. Zane acknowledges the risk from Rosas's speed and confidence, but believes Font's toughness and veteran savvy will carry him. He compares it to Font's win over Matsumoto.

Odds: Font +210, Rosas -245.
"I think for me, I have to pick font here. This is, he's 38. Rosas is, and he is a good, fast athlete and he's hyper confident, which counts."
LOSS vs David Martínez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 0 49 of 158 31% 49 of 158 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:59
David Martínez 0 62 of 155 40% 115 of 210 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 0 11 of 51 21% 11 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
David Martínez 0 22 of 45 48% 35 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rob Font 0 15 of 49 30% 15 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:39
David Martínez 0 10 of 27 37% 30 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
3 Rob Font 0 23 of 58 39% 23 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Martínez 0 30 of 83 36% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 49 of 158 31% 40 of 138 7 of 17 2 of 3 49 of 158 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 62 of 155 40% 33 of 115 10 of 16 19 of 24 62 of 155 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 11 of 51 21% 11 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 22 of 45 48% 7 of 25 5 of 8 10 of 12 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rob Font 15 of 49 30% 9 of 37 5 of 11 1 of 1 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 10 of 27 37% 6 of 20 3 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rob Font 23 of 58 39% 20 of 53 2 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 30 of 83 36% 20 of 70 2 of 3 8 of 10 30 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, despite his age (38) and lack of takedown defense. He says Font is a technical striker with clean hands, good chin, and veteran composure. He thinks David Martinez, stepping up on short notice, probably won't look to wrestle unless losing the striking exchanges, and by then it's too late. He says the over 2.5 is probably rock solid. He also mentions a David Martinez inside the distance decision no action prop.

The over two and a half is probably rock solid here. I might like a David Martinez inside the distance decision, no action might be the play.
"Font is the pick. The over two and a half is probably rock solid here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Font because Martinez is a big step down in competition. He notes Font has fought and lost to elite fighters, but has beaten lower-level opponents. He likes Font's volume, cardio, and experience. He predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges Martinez has power and Font can be hurt.

Decision win
"I'm going to take Font to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Connor picks Rob Font, emphasizing Font's reach advantage and high-output one-two, which will trouble Martínez's in-and-out striking style. He notes that Martínez struggled with the jab against Xavier Franklin and Font is a better version of that. Connor acknowledges Font's age (38) but says his chin hasn't gone yet, and Martínez lacks the power or wrestling to exploit it.

Font opened at -170, dropped to -200, currently -130; Martínez opened at +145, currently +110. Connor says 'it really feels like Font could be a bigger favorite' and attributes the line movement to age bias.
"Martínez is just going to be stuck having Rob Font's fight as far as I can tell."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
David Martínez

Martinez has received a lot of love, moving from +180 to +115, and the host agrees. He believes Martinez is closer to his prime, dangerous in striking, treads distance well, and will counter Font's output. He expects Martinez to stuff takedowns and win on the scorecards.

odds movement from +180 to +115
"I think he is way closer to his prime. He's very dangerous in the striking realm. Treads distance very well. Utilizes a good mobile striking game and I think he'll be able to counter the output heavy game of Font."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

The MMA Guru picks Rob Font, dismissing David Martinez as unproven with wins over low-level opponents. He believes Font's jab and reach will be key, and that Martinez's single-shot explosivity won't trouble Font. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26, as Martinez loses composure when peppered with jabs.

Decision win 30-27 or 30-26
"Rob Font is gonna beat David Martinez, I reckon. ... I'm going to go Rob Font decision win 2928 based on the second and third or maybe 30-27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Zane picks Rob Font, highlighting Font's consistent output, power, and experience against top competition. He notes that Font's losses have come only against elite fighters with superior wrestling or power, and Martínez lacks both. Zane believes Martínez's step up in competition is too large, and Font's one-two and takedown to seal rounds will be decisive.

Font opened at -170, dropped to -200, currently -130; Martínez opened at +145, currently +110. Zane says 'it really feels like Font could be a bigger favorite' and attributes the line movement to age bias.
"This is just a monstrous step up. And as we have seen many times now, Rob Font is not a guy you step up against."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 0 95 of 171 55% 113 of 191 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Jean Matsumoto 0 77 of 181 42% 113 of 225 7 of 10 70% 0 0 6:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 0 21 of 34 61% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Jean Matsumoto 0 7 of 19 36% 32 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:40
2 Rob Font 0 34 of 56 60% 36 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jean Matsumoto 0 29 of 61 47% 35 of 69 5 of 5 100% 0 0 2:05
3 Rob Font 0 40 of 81 49% 50 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Jean Matsumoto 0 41 of 101 40% 46 of 107 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 95 of 171 55% 82 of 157 13 of 14 0 of 0 85 of 157 10 of 14 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 77 of 181 42% 43 of 135 9 of 13 25 of 33 69 of 169 8 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 7 of 19 36% 1 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 4 3 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rob Font 34 of 56 60% 28 of 50 6 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 29 of 61 47% 16 of 43 3 of 4 10 of 14 29 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rob Font 40 of 81 49% 34 of 74 6 of 7 0 of 0 32 of 69 8 of 12 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 41 of 101 40% 26 of 80 3 of 6 12 of 15 37 of 93 4 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his youth, aggression, power, and multiple ways to win. He notes Rob Font is 37 and aging, and while Font's boxing is clean, he can't defend takedowns. He draws a parallel to Calvin Kattar being out-struck by a younger fighter. He is surprised the line moved toward Font.

"Jean Matsumoto is going to be too much, too aggressive, too good of a chin, too much power, too many ways to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, noting that Rob Font's takedown defense and ground game have looked awful recently, citing the Cory Sandhagen and Kyler Phillips fights. He believes Matsumoto, though not the best wrestler, is a good grappler who can take Font down and keep him there. He expects Matsumoto to win by decision, as Font has good submission defense but is content to stay on his back and lose minutes.

by decision
"I got to go Matsumoto here on the feet you know Rob fond is is is absolutely game on the feet this should be a very fun and competitive to fight I'd like the durability a little bit more at …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Connor picks Font, agreeing that Matsumoto is uncreative and predictable, while Font is a skilled boxer with good durability. He notes that Matsumoto fights in bursts and leaves gaps, which Font can exploit. Connor also points out that Font has a reach advantage and is a good puncher himself, as seen in the Yadong fight.

"Font should win this as long as he crosses his eyes and dots his teas"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host notes Matsumoto is a short-notice replacement but expects his damaging style and effective striking in the pocket to be too much for Font. He thinks Matsumoto's damage-based approach will win on the scorecards as long as Font doesn't get too far ahead in volume.

"look for matsumoto's damaging style Landing more effective strikes inside the pocket and clearly showcasing that he's being more damaging that should be enough for him to go out there and win this final on the scor cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

The Guru strongly picks Font as an underdog, calling it a no-brainer. He criticizes Matsumoto's undefeated record, noting close fights with Brad Katona and Dan Arreta where he was outgrappled. He highlights Font's experience against top competition, durability (never finished by strikes), and striking menace. He believes Matsumoto lacks KO power and won't submit or outgrapple Font.

great value on Rob font as an underdog
"I think this is a no-brainer Underdog and people are just looking at 16 and0 and thinking he's a monster"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Zane picks Font because Matsumoto is a limited fighter who fights in bursts and is predictable, while Font has a clear winning formula of jabbing and boxing. He notes that Font is durable, mentally tough, and has a reach advantage. Zane believes Matsumoto would need to hurt Font badly every round to win, which is unlikely given Font's durability.

"Rob font should be able to do to matsamoto what kevin holland did to walking buckly"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 0 61 of 137 44% 65 of 144 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Kyler Phillips 0 38 of 125 30% 50 of 143 4 of 5 80% 0 0 4:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Kyler Phillips 0 10 of 26 38% 21 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:34
2 Rob Font 0 31 of 58 53% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Kyler Phillips 0 14 of 48 29% 15 of 49 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:24
3 Rob Font 0 23 of 60 38% 24 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Kyler Phillips 0 14 of 51 27% 14 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 61 of 137 44% 50 of 122 11 of 15 0 of 0 56 of 131 5 of 6 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 38 of 125 30% 19 of 98 9 of 14 10 of 13 32 of 112 1 of 6 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 7 of 19 36% 6 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 10 of 26 38% 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 1 5 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Rob Font 31 of 58 53% 23 of 48 8 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 55 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 14 of 48 29% 6 of 38 5 of 6 3 of 4 13 of 44 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Rob Font 23 of 60 38% 21 of 57 2 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 14 of 51 27% 5 of 37 2 of 6 7 of 8 14 of 49 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-425), Font (+330)

Round 1
Sitting in the co-main event slot is a bantamweight contest that will reestablish or coin a new contender in the talent-rich division. Having lost four of his last five, Font’s (20-8, 10-7 UFC) back is about as against the wall as it gets. As much as Font has largely struggled, Phillips (12-2, 6-1 UFC) has flourished, winner of his last three—albeit with one win in 2022, one in 2023 and the latest in March. This potential passing of the torch encounter will be officiated by referee Keith Peterson, and the 135ers touch ‘em up without a shred of nonsense between them. Font jabs his way directly into action, landing a few punches and setting up more. As Font presses forward, Phillips shoots in and easily hits a takedown, landing in side control and laughing off a guillotine choke defense from the New Englander. Phillips steps over from one side to the other, shifting to half guard as he sets up an arm-triangle choke. When Phillips abandons the choke, he secures side control almost effortlessly. Font turns to the other direction, but he stops doing so when realizing this will give his back up. Phillips controls from on top without unleashing much offense, posturing to the other side to drop down a single elbow. Any time Font tries to scramble, Phillips easily sees it coming and lays into Font with powerful elbows. Font turns over after fighting off a submission setup to explode back to his feet, and Phillips greets him with a spinning wheel kick. Font keeps his guard up and plods forward, scoring an uppercut and swinging a second before shooting in for a double. Font takes Phillips’ back standing, and Phillips breaks out of the position without much concern. Phillips scores a one-two, Font throws back, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 2
Font stalks out of his corner to engage in the second round, no-selling a leg kick so he can chamber and loose a few hard right hands. Font busts Phillips in the chops with a particularly strong right, and “The Matrix” responds with a shot that plants Font on his back. Font fights much more aggressively to get to his feet, walking up the wall and pressuring Phillips as much as he can. Font trails after Phillips, keeping his guard high and using tight boxing combinations to keep Phillips honest. Font winds up with a right hand that misses the mark, and he lets Phillips throw first so he can counter and tie him up. Font decides to disengage, taking a body kick to the side and chasing after Phillips to make Phillips turn tail and run. Phillips resets and kicks Font in the ribs, and he leans back after a leg kick to get popped with an overhand right. Font digs a body shot, and Phillips escapes and is eating powerful blows while his hands are low and his chin is high in the air. Font stabs his foe in the sternum with his foot, and he ignores a lazy high kick aimed his direction so he can blast Phillips in the face with a right hand. Fond chomps down on his mouthpiece and nails Phillips again, and swelling quickly develops around the Arizonan’s left eye. Phillips keeps on his bike, and Font is a Terminator walking through anything aimed at him so he can tag Phillips with power. A Phillips spin strike fails, as Font keeps his hands high and works the body to open up the head. Phillips tries to tie him up, and he pushes off to fire off a one-two and a spinning back fist. Phillips clinches, and Font wrenches himself away so he can keep the suffocating pace. Phillips gets backed off courtesy of several jabs, and Font utilizes the clinch to wear further on Phillips. Right before the bell, Phillips hits a foot sweep and puts Font on his seat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Font
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Font

Round 3
Phillips starts off the round backing away from his opponent, and he lands a leg kick and shoots for a successful takedown. Font hits the ground and starts hand-fighting, eventually settling for muscling back to his feet. Phillips hacks at him with a tomahawking elbow when upright, and Font laughs it off and slugs him in the face with a right hand. Font loads up two more times on heavy rights, and both whoosh past “The Matrix.” Font surges into action behind his punches, landing and turning Phillips around. Phillips steels himself and swing back for vengeance, cracking Font with a right hand and rushing to the side to get a modicum of space. Font will not let him breathe for long, bearing down on him and crushing him against the cage wall. Phillips escapes and ducks an overhand right, kicking the side as he further escapes. Font sticks out a jab, and he sets up an uppercut when Phillips splits the distance to take him down. Font keeps pursuing Phillips fearlessly, getting his calf kicked hard but keeping his balance to stride ever forward. Font’s punches are telegraphed, as are Phillips’ takedowns. The latter is what comes next, but Font stops it in its tracks. Phillips breaks away before eating a strike, and he backpedals and has his left hand up to block Font’s wide right hooks. Phillips clips Font with his own short flurry, and Font tags him with one overhand right to slow him again. Font’s momentum leads to another clinch, and Phillips frames off with his knee. Font loads up time and again on his booming right, and Phillips gives him a little extra something to think about with a wheel kick. Font catches Phillips with a right hand on the way out, and Phillips’ legs are loose but he is still with it. Font keeps after him, watching for a spin kick that comes and advancing to sling final leather. Font stuffs one final takedown, and time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)

The Official Result
Rob Font def. Kyler Phillips via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Angelo picks Kyler Phillips, citing the decline of the New England Cartel's takedown defense. He notes Rob Font's vulnerability to wrestling and believes Phillips' diverse striking and wrestling will make Font look old and slow. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns and win comfortably. He criticizes the New England Cartel's inability to evolve.

"kylo phil pH is going to be fast on the feet he'll mix in some wrestling and he's the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips by any method. He notes Font's durability is diminishing, he gets wobbled often, and has poor takedown defense. Phillips can win on the feet or by takedown. He expects Phillips to get it done, possibly by knockout, submission, or decision, given Font's toughness.

"this should be Phillips all day um you I think rob font's you know trending towards being on his way out and I think Phillips can just win this fight wherever it goes"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Connor also picks Phillips but with hesitation, noting that Phillips' early speed and variety are key, but he fades late. He thinks Font could come on strong in the third round if Phillips hasn't put him away. Connor is not fully convinced about Phillips yet, but sees the takedowns and speed as enough to win over three rounds.

"I will take Phillips as well, but I don't know about him yet"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Font has been on a bad slump. His volume style can be effective, but Phillips will land more significant strikes and mix in takedowns. Phillips will grind out a win on the scorecards.

"I think that will see Carla land the more significant or more significant strikes not just volume wise but at least in ter ter of making it look better for the judges and mix that in with a few takedowns …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

The Guru picks Phillips over Font, citing Font's susceptibility to being grappled and his age (37). He notes Phillips has explosive takedowns and offensive grappling, as shown against Pedro Munhoz, and trains with Sean O'Malley. He expects Phillips to mix things up and win a decision, though he acknowledges Font is a good boxer.

decision
"I'm going to go with Kyler Phillips over Rob font little bit more Dynamic on the f"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Zane picks Phillips, citing his speed and variety early in the fight to stump Font for two rounds. He acknowledges that Phillips tends to fade in the third round, but believes Font's linear style and lack of adaptability will allow Phillips to build an insurmountable lead. He notes that Phillips may also use takedowns, though that could gas him.

Font opened +232, now +333; Phillips opened -275, now -417; Zane says the odds are too wide on Font
"I think I'm gonna take Kyler Phillips"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 46 of 94 48% 48 of 96 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Rob Font 0 45 of 74 60% 53 of 84 4 of 7 57% 0 0 4:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 22 of 37 59% 22 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Rob Font 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:34
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 15 of 33 45% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 15 of 22 68% 15 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:09
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Rob Font 0 20 of 32 62% 28 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Deiveson Figueiredo 46 of 94 48% 39 of 85 5 of 6 2 of 3 44 of 92 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rob Font 45 of 74 60% 35 of 64 7 of 7 3 of 3 33 of 60 6 of 7 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 22 of 37 59% 20 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 15 of 33 45% 12 of 29 1 of 1 2 of 3 13 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rob Font 15 of 22 68% 12 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 18 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 9 of 24 37% 7 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 20 of 32 62% 16 of 28 4 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 22 3 of 3 6 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Rob Font
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Font (-135), Figueiredo (+114)

Round 1
Business picks up with a bantamweight showcase pitting Font (20-7, 10-6 UFC) against Figueiredo (21-3-1, 10-3-1 UFC)—a two-time flyweight champion making the jump to 135 pounds. Figueiredo has not fought anyone other than archrival Brandon Moreno since November 2020.
For more on the Brazilian’s move to the bantamweight division, read “New Digs for Deiveson Figueiredo” from the aforementioned Stein
. Rexroad serves as the referee. Font moves to the center of the cage and stalks the Brazilian from range. He backs up Figueiredo with a clean one-two, shrugs off an attempted clinch and flicks out a few jabs. Figueiredo completes a takedown but cannot keep the New England Cartel rep down. Back on the feet, Font gets to work with his jab. Figueiredo lands an overhand right, ducks into takedown and again allows his opponent to get back to his feet. Font fires a long one-two and moves behind Figueiredo. He lifts the Brazilian off his feet but cannot finish the takedown. Round is still up in the air with a minute to go. Font counters with a right uppercut, and they trade jabs. Figueiredo staggers him with an overhand right but elects not to accelerate. He lures Font into a tie-up along the fence, stalls and then breaks into open space. Figueiredo looking more and more comfortable on the feet. They trad jabs at the close of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo

Round 2
Font gets busy with his jab but allows the Brazilian to close the distance and clinch along the fence. The action stalls briefly. Figueiredo lands a knee south of the equator, resulting in a brief pause. Font readjusts the jewels, and they resume their battle. Figueiredo connects with an uppercut and stays light on his feet. Font shuts off a takedown attempt, then walks into a clean right hand from the Brazilian. He pops Figueiredo with a leg kick and presses forward behind punches. Figueiredo ducks a punch and secures a takedown with two minutes left in the round. Font scrambles free, and they get back to business in the center of the cage. Figueiredo’s output has dwindled here. Font pounds home a jab, then follows with a leg kick. He circled out of a clinch from the Brazilian, marches forward and pumps out his jab. Figueiredo lands a clean two-punch volley and follows with a front kick up the middle.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo

Round 3
Figueiredo moves forward behind a front kick, initiates a tie-up and works for a takedown. Font’s defense holds up. Figueiredo steps into a right hand, then another and engages the Massachusetts native in the clinch. Nothing materializes. Font connects with a right hook to the body. Both men landing in single shots. Figueiredo dazes his counterpart with a wicked left hook, pushes him backward, fires a knee to the body and delivers another left hook upstairs. Font answers with a multi-punch volley, mixes in a jab and whiffs on an elbow over the top. They trade jabs midway through Round 3. Figueiredo ducks into a single-leg and completes a key takedown. He climbs to full mount, drops elbows and hammerfists, maintains his position and gets warned for grabbing the fence. Font reclaims half guard but struggles to control the Brazilian’s posture. With 30 seconds to go, this is slipping away from Font. Figueiredo slides to side control, applies heavy pressure and bleeds the remaining time off the clock.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)

The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Rob Font—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Big Brady picks Figueiredo as a dog, citing paths to victory via wrestling or landing big shots. He notes Font's poor takedown defense and get-up game, and thinks Figueiredo can mix in takedowns. He also thinks Figueiredo's power could be a factor, as Font gets rocked often. He predicts a decision win for Figueiredo.

"I'm gonna take figgy here as a dog it's hard to have a ton of confidence in it but I feel like he has some paths here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Cody takes Figueiredo as an underdog. He cites Figueiredo's power, multiple paths to victory (knockdowns, takedowns), and Font's poor takedown defense as shown against Cory Sandhagen. He thinks Figueiredo can land bigger shots and mix in wrestling. He also notes Figueiredo moving up to 135 may help his cardio and power translation.

"I'll take the underdog actually in figuro got to take some dogs some places I get didn't have the coonies in the co-main event but I'll take the flyer here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Lucrative James leans towards Rob Font, citing his size, reach, and experience against top bantamweights. He acknowledges Figueiredo's power and guillotine threat, and Font's questionable chin. However, he believes Font should be favored and may look to attack a prop rather than the moneyline due to volatility.

considering attacking a prop
"I think font should be favored he's the much better fighter overall he's more well-rounded"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo moves up to bantamweight and should carry power and strength. Font has been outgrappled and outdamaged in recent fights, with poor takedown defense and a tendency to lose rounds due to damage. Figueiredo's power and ability to land big shots could lead to a knockout, similar to Font's losses to Aldo and Vera. Font may win minutes, but Figueiredo will win moments and likely finish.

knockout victory predicted
"give me Figaro here fig land the big shots I think I have him down as a finish as well yeah I'm going to save Figaro by knock out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul sides slightly with Font based on volume. He thinks Font should box Figueiredo up and put up crazy volume over three rounds. He notes Figueiredo's power and Font's chinny history, but believes Font's volume will be enough. He says the line is accurate and he's not too confident.

"I'm going to side ever so slightly with font with that volume say that Davidson you know moving up away class maybe the power isn't going to be as damaging up here but um yeah I'm not too too confident"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rob Font

The MMA Guru picks Rob Font by first-round KO, believing Figueiredo's power won't translate up a division and that Font's reach and jab will be decisive. He notes Figueiredo's defensive flaws and recent injuries. He predicts Font will catch Figueiredo early and put him away.

first round KO, first two minutes
"I'm going Rob Font first round KO in the first two minutes... I think Font's going to jab him up and Figueiredo got stung a lot on the chin."
LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 34 of 84 40% 132 of 211 7 of 7 100% 1 0 19:38
Rob Font 0 9 of 49 18% 25 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 8 of 26 30% 27 of 51 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:43
Rob Font 0 5 of 22 22% 6 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 7 of 15 46% 38 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:41
Rob Font 0 0 of 7 0% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 10 of 24 41% 27 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Rob Font 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 6 of 11 54% 29 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:41
Rob Font 0 0 of 4 0% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Cory Sandhagen 0 3 of 8 37% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:50
Rob Font 0 0 of 6 0% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 34 of 84 40% 30 of 79 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 47 0 of 1 24 of 36
Rob Font 9 of 49 18% 5 of 43 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 44 0 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 19 0 of 1 3 of 6
Rob Font 5 of 22 22% 2 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 17 0 of 3 1 of 2
2 Cory Sandhagen 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 8
Rob Font 0 of 7 0% 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Cory Sandhagen 10 of 24 41% 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 14 0 of 0 8 of 10
Rob Font 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Rob Font 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Cory Sandhagen 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 4
Rob Font 0 of 6 0% 0 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Cory Sandhagen, citing his active striking, fluid combinations, and solid BJJ. He notes that Rob Font is a gritty boxer with a solid chin but lacks power and is on the back nine of his career. Angelo believes Sandhagen will make it a true MMA fight by mixing in wrestling, and that the catchweight benefits Sandhagen as the larger fighter. He also points out that Font is stepping up on short notice and that Sandhagen dominated Chito Vera, who is more dangerous than Font.

"Corey's the pick and he's a very very confident pick for me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady is very confident in Sandhagen, citing Rob Font's age (36), short notice, and accumulated damage from recent fights like the Marlon Vera beating where Font was dropped multiple times. He believes Sandhagen's diverse striking and submission threat will overwhelm Font, and that Font's durability has declined. He predicts Sandhagen will either dominate to a 50-43 decision or become the first to knock Font out, possibly with a head kick or knee.

Sandhagen by KO/TKO or decision; first to knock out Rob Font
"I like San Hagen to finish Rob Fawn and be the first one to knock him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen due to his blend of striking and takedowns, plus a full camp preparing for Umar Nurmagomedov. He notes Font's short notice and history of being dropped (five times in two fights) as vulnerabilities. Cody believes Sandhagen can mix in takedowns and strike effectively, though he acknowledges Font's elite striking and volume. He also mentions betting Sandhagen by knockout at +225.

Sandhagen by KO +225; under 120.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I took sandhagen by knockout plus 225... it's the only bet I've made so far"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Daniel Levi is confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing his evolution into a well-rounded fighter with improved wrestling and durability. He notes Sandhagen's killer resume and recent performances against Song Yadong and Chito Vera as evidence of his growth. Levi believes Sandhagen's fight IQ and length will be key, and that he will avoid trading in the pocket with Font's dangerous jab. He sees Sandhagen as a future title contender and expects him to shine in the main event.

Mentions the line opened at -200 and is now -340, but does not recommend betting at that price. No prop bets or finishing predictions explicitly stated.
"I think Corey sandag is going to shine in the main event."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

James is very confident Sandhagen dominates. He thinks Sandhagen can do whatever he wants—strike, takedown, submit, or knock out Font. He believes Font's chin is done and predicts a knockout in the second or third round. He notes Sandhagen's dynamism and one-shot power.

Sandhagen by knockout
"Corey Sandhagen via knockout is my prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen has an unorthodox style that blends wrestling and striking, and he's made for five rounds. Font has a great comeback win over Yanez, but Sandhagen's style will be too unorthodox for Font to get going. Sandhagen eats damage well and counters effectively. The fight likely goes the distance, so over 4.5 rounds is my favorite prop, but Sandhagen gets his hand raised. The line is too wide to bet heavily, and there is value on Font at these odds.

over 4.5 rounds, value on Font at current line
"over four and a half will probably be my favorite uh prediction for this fight but I still think that sandhagen gets his hand raise line is just too wide for me to get you know ahead of myself"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Sandhagen's full camp and wrestling advantage. He notes Font's short notice and chin issues, but expects a competitive fight if it goes the distance. Paul leans towards Sandhagen by knockout, though he respects both fighters.

"I mean if this goes 25 minutes I can definitely see it being pretty competitive... but I see San Hagen knocking him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host picks Cory Sandhagen confidently, calling him a cerebral, diverse striker in his prime. He believes Sandhagen will pick Font apart with superior technique and defense. He notes Font is 36 and while dangerous, Sandhagen is a better mixed martial artist. He predicts a unanimous decision but does not rule out a head kick knockout. He recommends Sandhagen as a parlay piece and expects the line to rise.

unanimous decision; possible head kick knockout; line opened -256, now -312; parlay piece
"give me Corey sandhagen to take over this fight as it goes on I'll I'll say unanimous decision for Corey sandhagen"
WIN vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (punches) R1 2:57 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 1 33 of 75 44% 33 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Adrian Yañez 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 1 33 of 75 44% 33 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Adrian Yañez 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 33 of 75 44% 30 of 69 2 of 5 1 of 1 27 of 66 1 of 2 5 of 7
Adrian Yañez 25 of 54 46% 21 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3 25 of 51 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 33 of 75 44% 30 of 69 2 of 5 1 of 1 27 of 66 1 of 2 5 of 7
Adrian Yañez 25 of 54 46% 21 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3 25 of 51 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez but is not highly confident, noting that Rob Font is a clean technical striker who is very live. He thinks Yañez is a younger version of Font, faster and with more power, but Font has a good chin and could win. He warns that this could be a changing of the guard, but Font could also remind everyone he's still elite.

"Jana's the pick but Rob font super live here clean technical Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez despite wanting to pick Rob Font, due to Font's recent durability issues. He notes Font has taken massive damage in his last two fights and has been dropped repeatedly. He believes Yañez has power and volume, and can win by decision or knockout. He predicts a decision win for Yañez.

"give me honest here I'm gonna say Yana's by ... decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Cody agrees with Paul on Font. He points out that Yañez struggled early against Randy Costa, getting dominated in round one before Costa gassed. Cody believes Font's constant jab and long-range strikes will disrupt Yañez's timing and prevent him from landing his power shots. He sees Font's volume as overwhelming and thinks Yañez may struggle to find his rhythm. Cody also notes Font by decision at +200 is worth a look.

Font by decision at +200
"I'm with you I'm with you the knockdowns are a bit of a concern Yanez does hit very very hard but the volume is just overbearing"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Connor picks Yañez because Font's defensive flaws are well-documented: he has poor footwork after committing to his right hand and relies on a static high guard. Yañez is a fantastic counter puncher who will find openings as Font falls into predictable rhythms. However, Connor notes that Yañez can be a slow starter and may lose the first round if Font's jab takes over. He also mentions that Yañez's high-output style can lead to fatigue, as seen against Davey Grant. Despite these concerns, Connor believes Yañez's sharp countering will eventually catch Font.

Font opened at +126, now +155; Yañez opened at -140, now -175. Connor thinks the odds are getting too wide given Yañez's unproven resume at this level.
"I'll take Yanez as well, but this is a great fight for that. It's a genuine divisional sorting matchup."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Jacob is extremely high on Adrian Yañez, calling him his guy and predicting he will be champion by 2025. He praises Yañez's beautiful boxing, combinations, and power. He believes Yañez will find the timing and land the more impactful shots, possibly finishing inside the distance. He acknowledges that Yañez can be a slow starter but trusts his dog mentality.

inside the distance
"Adrian Yanez wins this fight I think he sends out inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rob Font

Font has high output, a great jab, and good footwork, but his durability is questionable after losses to Aldo and Vera. Yañez is a crisp boxer with power, but this is his toughest test. Font's volume and jab could frustrate Yañez, and Font's cardio should hold up. However, if Font's chin is shot, Yañez could land a big shot. I lean Font by decision but with hesitation.

"I'm gonna lean with the veteran here I'm gonna lean with the guy that showcases that he has the style to give a guy like Giannis fits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul likes Rob Font as a plus-money underdog. He questions Yañez's level of competition, noting his wins are over lower-tier fighters and his only step-up against Davey Grant was a close split decision. Paul highlights Font's elite striking volume, footwork, and jab, and notes that Font has gone five rounds with top bantamweights. He acknowledges Font's tendency to get knocked down but believes his volume and experience will overwhelm Yañez.

Font by decision at +200 considered
"this kind of plus money we're going to need dogs and we're in Florida it does feel like Rob Funk and outwork almost anybody in the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez to win by decision. He expects Font to have success early with his jab and takedowns, but Yañez will weather the storm and start finding his range. He predicts Yañez will hurt Font badly in rounds two and three, with moments of near-finishes, but Font will survive to the final bell. He compares it to a Marlon Vera-esque performance.

"I'm gonna go with Adrian Yanez by decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Zane picks Yañez because Font's defensive issues are severe: he gets hit cleanly in every fight and has been knocked down repeatedly. Yañez is a sharp counter puncher who will exploit Font's tendency to leave himself open after throwing the right hand. Zane acknowledges that Yañez may start slow and lose the first round, but he expects Yañez to figure out Font's rhythm and land big shots. He also notes that Font's chin is a major concern, as even if Yañez fades, he only needs one clean shot to change the fight.

Font opened at +126, now +155; Yañez opened at -140, now -175. Zane thinks the odds are getting too wide.
"If you can see one fighter clearly winning a round of a fight and the other rounds being close, pick the clear round winner."
LOSS vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 271 of 516 52% 273 of 520 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Rob Font 3 159 of 283 56% 167 of 291 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 57 of 100 57% 57 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 26 of 46 56% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 0 51 of 97 52% 51 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 1 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Marlon Vera 0 71 of 123 57% 71 of 123 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Rob Font 1 37 of 71 52% 39 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
4 Marlon Vera 0 42 of 89 47% 44 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 1 36 of 56 64% 39 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
5 Marlon Vera 0 50 of 107 46% 50 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 33 of 58 56% 33 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 271 of 516 52% 199 of 436 48 of 56 24 of 24 256 of 496 15 of 20 0 of 0
Rob Font 159 of 283 56% 95 of 205 22 of 31 42 of 47 133 of 246 4 of 4 22 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 57 of 100 57% 38 of 81 14 of 14 5 of 5 52 of 92 5 of 8 0 of 0
Rob Font 26 of 46 56% 5 of 21 7 of 10 14 of 15 26 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 51 of 97 52% 36 of 81 9 of 10 6 of 6 48 of 93 3 of 4 0 of 0
Rob Font 27 of 52 51% 17 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 43 0 of 0 5 of 9
3 Marlon Vera 71 of 123 57% 53 of 102 12 of 15 6 of 6 70 of 121 1 of 2 0 of 0
Rob Font 37 of 71 52% 29 of 59 4 of 7 4 of 5 25 of 55 2 of 2 10 of 14
4 Marlon Vera 42 of 89 47% 33 of 78 5 of 7 4 of 4 39 of 86 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rob Font 36 of 56 64% 20 of 36 3 of 5 13 of 15 27 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 10
5 Marlon Vera 50 of 107 46% 39 of 94 8 of 10 3 of 3 47 of 104 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rob Font 33 of 58 56% 24 of 49 4 of 4 5 of 5 33 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
SHERDOG BETTING PREVIEW ODDS : Font (-140), Vera (+110) Rob Font (138.5: Missed Weight) vs. Marlon Vera

Round 1
We have now reached the main event, which takes place in a catchweight instead of a standard weight category as Font (19-5, 9-4 UFC) missed weight by 2.5 pounds ahead of his marque pairing against “Chito” Vera (18-7-1, 12-6 UFC). These two are the only ranked competitors that set foot in the cage this evening, but a win for Font would arguably mean less as he could not reach the bantamweight limit. Apologetic for this error, Font offers a glove touch as the two stand before gold-standard referee Jason Herzog, and Vera accepts it with a smile as he is amped up for his first UFC main event. Vera is crouched over in his corner when the fight begins, and Font does a tour of the cage while waiting for him to stand up. Vera does do so, and he throws a front kick to start things off. Font starts up with his staple jabs, and Vera replies with a calf kick. Font subsequently counters it with an overhand right, and they back off to kick one another in the legs. Font strings together a pair of one-twos, and Vera responds with a thudding body kick to the guard. Font continues to work the jab, and he chains a solid boxing combination together that knock Vera back. A big uppercut from Font reddens the nose, and he knees Vera in the chin when Vera bends over. Vera gets a little space and lets loose with low kicks, and Font continues peppering him with jabs. Font steps in with an elbow, and Vera responds with a powerful leg kick. Vera closes in and pins several uppercuts on the chin before Vera pushes off and reaches out with a front kick that is just shy of the face. Font rips the body, and when Vera advances, he goes after another crisp uppercut. Font tattoos Vera’s heavily tattooed head and body with jabs, and Vera slips a couple of punches and counters with a front kick. Font nails his man with an uppercut again, and Vera staggers back and gathers himself to absorb a few punches high and low. Font put three punches together as Vera guards up and circles on the outside, and he commits to his calf kick when Font gives him a moment to breathe. Font absorbs another leg kick, and he loads up on punches when Vera tries to kick his lead calf once more. Font walks into a punch, and he blocks a loud body kick that impacts off his arms. Font winds up with an uppercut after a jab, intercepting Vera coming in. The uppercut continues to find its home as Font targets it repeatedly, and Vera is not able to read it and tries to block them, but they still get through. Vera kicks the midsection, and when he comes in, Font meets him with a knee and his own low kick, The first round ends, and the bantamweights tensely stare down one another after the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Font
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Font

Round 2
The fighters meet in the middle to start off the second round, and they bounce closer together only to back off before engaging. Font jabs, follows it with a right and connects with a clean left to back Vera up. Font puts the ball of his foot on Vera’s chest, and he steps in with a hacking elbow that glances off Vera’s head. Vera fires off a front kick, and Font catches it and pushes Vera back. Vera, with his leg in the air, jumps with his other to kick Font a few times. Font delivers a big elbow that make Vera mockingly show that he is hurt, and he subsequently spins with a back kick to the body. Font reels from the kick and has to rebound off the fence, and Vera kicks the body again. Vera is able to counter a few punches, and Font begins to chain jabs into punches effectively as Vera’s face starts to turn red. “Chito” rips the body to make Font’s guard drop, and Font kicks his leg as a result. Vera loads up on a heavier one of his own, and Vera blocks an oncoming salvo of punches. Font has a few punches blocked, and Vera sticks his tongue out at him. As he does, a piston-like jab connects and knocks a surprised Vera back. Vera walks into another jab as Vera walks him down, but Vera does get off a leg kick. Font throws five punches in a row, and a huge body kick from Vera bends Font over. Font recovers and leans on his boxing to back Vera up, but “Chito” rallies and kicks him in the gut with a front kick. Vera works the leg with a kick, and Font strides through it to land a few punches and ends a combination with a solid left hand. Font steps through a series of punches with a knee up the middle, and Vera ricochets off the fence and marches his man down. Font kicks high, and the kick glances off the shoulder. Font carries on jabbing, and he works a right hand to the body in the midst of a punching chain. Vera walks him down and cracks him with a left hand, and Font is rocked badly and drops to his knees. Font instinctively goes after a single, and Vera bowls him over and unloads several brutal elbows. Font hangs on to the bell, and he springs right back up and goes to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
“Chito” is so fired up to start off the round, he is physically pulled back a few times by Herzog. Despite this aggressive intention, Font is the one who strikes first, jabbing his way in before shooting for a takedown. Vera scrambles and gets to his knees when dragged down, and he turns his opponent around to the fence and starts working the sides with punches and knees. Font pushes off with an elbow to break, and Vera puts everything into a head kick. Even with the kick blocked, it still has enough impact to shake Font. Font is quick to gather his thoughts and start working his uppercut, and Vera takes a front kick that goes low on the cup. Vera shrugs at Herzog when Herzog asks if he is alright, and the fight continues as they trade powerful blows. A thumping leg kick from the Ecuadorian gives Font some pause, and Font responds with a body kick. Vera steps through with a left hand, and he just misses a straight left hand across the bow. Font plants several punches on the guard, doing enough to take Vera’s focus away so he can drill a kick to the gut. Vera absorbs a leg kick, and Vera allows this so he can counter with a left hand that knocks Font back a few steps. The Bostonian marches forward, jabbing effectively and just getting up a block when a high kick aims at it. Vera unloads with a right hand, and Font greets him with several punches in a line of blows. Vera takes a clean elbow on the side of the head and barely flinches, and he kicks Font in the side. Font responds with a few punches to the body, leading Vera to tie him up. “Chito” separates and starts working kicks to the leg and side, and he slips a punch to throw one back. Font absorbs four flush punches without batting an eye, and he counters Font with a left to the midsection and a kick to the same spot. Font puts several punches together as Vera bounces off, and he splits the guard with a left. Font connects with a big left to the body, and Vera lifts up a knee that knocks Font off of his feet. Font climbs back up and wobbles back, only for Vera to chase him down and elbow him several more times. Herzog asks Font to keep fighting and moving, and Vera unleashes a fury of elbows right to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 4
Font has gathered his thoughts between rounds, and even with swelling and damage on his face from the concussive blows, he is ready to continue and starts off with jabs. Vera kicks the body, and he gets knocked back with a series of punches. Vera fights through the oncoming blows to give back his own, and he jumps in the air with a knee that is barely blocked in time. They trade one after the other, with Font preferring to touch while Vera is loading up on strikes. Font pins three uppercuts right on the chin, and he follows it with a one-two as chants for “’Chito’” rain down in the building. Font chases him down and uploads, and Vera ties him up and gets kneed. Vera elbows on the break to cut Font, but the Boston native does not even register this as he stalks Vera down. Font considers a takedown before bailing on it to let his boxing speak for himself. Vera rolls with the strikes that come at him, dancing back and sliding out of the way. Vera gets in a left, and Font is a bloody mess but no less active. Font opens up with jabs and one-twos, and Vera is circling away as his volume has diminished. Vera winds up with a side kick that connects as flush as it could, knocking Font back and down to the mat. Vera goes after him to try to finish him, and he gets kicked off as Font lays on his back aiming upkicks. Vera kicks the leg from above, while Font is still getting his wits about him. Vera is letting his foe of the hook, and eventually Herzog intervenes to stand Font up. Font walks through a spinning heel kick that soars at him to throw hands, and Vera spams another that similarly is inaccurate. Font bounces around, and he absorbs a pushing kick to his knee. Vera winds up on a body kick, and the fourth round ends. Vera walks back to his corner, laughing all the way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 5
Battered and bruised, swollen and sore, Font is hanging in there and cleared to continue. Vera is excited to reach the fifth round in this contest, and he walks straight into a left to the body when they begin to fight. Font has his jab reach out, and he misses an overhand right as Vera slides out of harm’s way. Font comes after him and elbows him on top of the head, and Vera looks at him quizzically and slaps Font in the face with his open hand like a Diaz brother. Font is riled up, and he lands six heavy punches that knock Vera back up to the wall. Vera scores a single leg kick, and he backs away as Font walks him down. Font keeps his hands busy, and he takes a solid jab on the face. Vera tries to back him off with a side kick, and Font is not slowing as he again backs Vera to the wire with his punches. They trade low kicks, and start to put power into their punches. Vera loads up as Font stalks after him, and he has a body kick that stuns Font for a second. Like a Terminator, Font keeps going, and a front kick blasts him in the face. Font strings several punches together despite the serious level of damage on his face, and he makes Vera take a step back when he lands a front kick. Vera counters Font coming in with a left, and he smacks Font with a left as Font leads into a combination. “Chito” snaps out a jab that makes Font shake his hands out, and he kicks the lead leg a pair of times. Font gets hurt from a punch, causing him to turn around for a second, and Vera begins to showboat and point. Font steels himself and powers ahead, chasing Vera around and absorbing punches while attacking. Font nails Vera with an uppercut, leading Vera into a dance as Vera signals that he is fine. Font does not fall for anything, and instead splits the guard with a right hand. Font bites down on his mouthpiece and throws hands to the head and body, and Vera aims another standing hook kick slash side kick that cracks into Font’s dome. Font is rattled once more from the powerful strike, and he wobbles back to the wall to try to recover for the waning seconds. Instead of going for a finish, Vera walks away to celebrate, pointing in the air and even turning his back on Font at one point. Font cannot reach him as time elapses, and this thriller comes to an end. Both bantamweights raise their stock after 25 minutes of bloody, chaotic battle. An emotional Vera thanks his team and invites his family into the cage after the fight, and declares that he will be a world champion and will bring the belt back to his home country of Ecuador. With that, the uneven ESPN card wraps up, with the night ending in style after that five-rounder in the books. Next week, the UFC will travel to Arizona, with a fantastic pay-per-view offering bringing a pair of highly anticipated title fights and some other great scraps like Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font (48-47 Vera)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Font (48-47 Vera)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera (49-46 Vera)

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Rob Font via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his cleaner boxing and composed style. He believes Font's accuracy and volume will mirror his success against Jose Aldo, but this time Font will get the win. He notes Vera's ability to make fights ugly and his iron chin, but thinks Font is too well-rounded to get caught in a brawl. He loves the -150 odds and plans a moneyline bet on Font.

moneyline bet at -150 odds
"I like rob font to mirror some of the success he had against jose aldo with his accuracy and his volume but this time i think he's going to get the win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, citing Vera's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to grow into the fight. He notes that Vera lands bigger shots and has a ground game advantage, while Font may win the first round but will fade. Brady predicts a late finish, possibly by submission, as the damage accumulates.

late finish, submission
"i like vera here i really do like vera as a dog... i'm gonna take marlon vera to win i'm gonna take him to win by a submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Cody picks Marlon Vera as a live underdog, citing Vera's slow-starting but strong-finishing style. He believes Vera can lose the first couple rounds but come on strong late, similar to his fight against Frankie Edgar. Cody notes Vera's grappling advantage and ability to take Font down, as Font gave up takedowns to Cody Garbrandt. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round for better odds.

Live betting after first round recommended
"i think i'm going to lean underdog in the main event so give me with marlon vero"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, citing his durability and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes that Vera's fights often start in round three, where he looks world-class, and that his cardio from running 13 miles a day will be a factor in a five-round fight. Levi acknowledges Rob Font's superior boxing but believes Vera can create chaos and make it a dirty fight, similar to the Pedro Munoz blueprint. He is concerned about Vera eating shots early but trusts his recovery. He took two units at +130.

Bet 2 units at +130 moneyline
"as a betting man as someone who took the plus 130 on chito here i can just start this fight at round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

The host picks Rob Font, citing his superior output and jab. He believes Font's volume and technical striking will outwork Vera over five rounds, especially since Vera is a slow starter. He notes Font's reach advantage and ability to stay on the outside, and doubts Vera has one-punch knockout power to change the fight. He expects a decision win for Font.

Font by decision +170, fight goes to decision -150
"i lean the rob font side i do think his output numbers are going to be way higher than vera"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul leans towards Rob Font based on volume and activity, noting Font's jab and boxing should outwork Vera over five rounds. He acknowledges Vera's power in kicks and potential grappling edge but doesn't trust Vera's wrestling to secure takedowns. Paul is concerned about Font's history of getting knocked down, as seen against Jose Aldo, which could cost him rounds. He hasn't bet the fight yet but sides with the numbers.

"i'm gonna lean towards font but it's a dicey fight and i'm won't be shocked if it goes either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

The Guru picks Marlon Vera as an underdog, citing Vera's size and physicality as key advantages. He believes Rob Font struggles against pressure and big opponents who can muscle him around. The Guru predicts Font will win the first two rounds, but Vera will take over in the later rounds, eventually securing a submission via d'arce choke in round four or five. He notes Vera's youth (29) and ability to absorb damage, while questioning Font's power after making Cody Garbrandt's chin look okay.

Vera by submission (d'arce choke) in round 4 or 5; Vera is an underdog
"i'm gonna have to go with marlon vera here over rob font i think rob fonte's gonna have some success early on... i think i'm gonna have to go with marlon vera getting like a darsh choke submission in round …"
Douglas Silva de Andrade - Fight History
LOSS vs Javier Reyes
KO R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 17 of 27 62% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Javier Reyes 1 46 of 75 61% 87 of 125 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 17 of 27 62% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Javier Reyes 1 46 of 75 61% 87 of 125 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Douglas Silva de Andrade 17 of 27 62% 8 of 15 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Javier Reyes 46 of 75 61% 42 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 32 0 of 0 37 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 17 of 27 62% 8 of 15 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Javier Reyes 46 of 75 61% 42 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 32 0 of 0 37 of 43
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Javier Reyes

Angelo picks Javier Reyes despite acknowledging that Douglas Silva de Andrade is the better individual fighter. He cites Silva de Andrade's age (40) and long layoff (almost two years) as major concerns. He believes Reyes's busy, active style and youth will overwhelm the older fighter, as long as Reyes avoids poor takedown attempts.

"Douglas is actually going to be the better fighter here if we're just assessing individual skills. But Douglas is 40, coming off an almost two-year layoff. I'll take the younger guy who's busy as hell."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Big Brady picks the underdog Douglas Silva de Andrade, despite his age (40) and moving up to featherweight. He believes Andrade's elite takedown defense will neutralize Javier Reyes' grappling, and that Andrade is the better striker. He notes Reyes has been knocked out before and predicts a second-round knockout for Andrade.

second round knockout
"So I'm going to take Douglas Silva de Andraj. ... I'll take the 40-year-old bantamweight to get it done by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Reyes

Cody agrees, noting Silva de Andrade's age, muscle mass, and inactivity. He sees Reyes as a human tornado with high KO percentage and expects him to overwhelm Silva de Andrade.

"Reyes meanwhile, I like Reyes. He is a human tornado. This guy puts hands on you, you're going to get knocked out."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Javier Reyes

Connor picks Reyes as a sadness hedge, noting that Silva is older, less active, and getting hurt more. Reyes has finished many opponents and tries to finish, while Silva's durability has declined. However, Connor acknowledges that Silva would win at any other point in their careers.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm going to pick Ray as, but this fight sucks. Go."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

The host is betting on Andrade because he believes the odds are wildly inaccurate. He notes that Andrade is a nightmare matchup for Reyes: he has knockout power, a granite chin, is tough, well-rounded, and difficult to take down. Reyes is making his UFC debut, looks flat, has poor striking defense, and is not physically imposing. Despite Andrade being 40 and on a two-year layoff, the host thinks he should be the favorite and is great value at +187.

Cheeky little sprinkle on a good value underdog.
"I just can't explain why Andra is a big underdog here. ... I would personally have Andra as the favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alex Reyes

James expects Reyes' relentless pace and cardio to overwhelm the 40-year-old Silva de Andrade, who may tire after a layoff. He predicts a late finish for Reyes, possibly in round three.

"My prediction will be Reyes to get the fight one inside the distance in round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Javier Reyes

The host picks Javier Reyes, noting that Silva de Andrade is 40, has been inactive, and moves up in weight. He believes Reyes's well-rounded game, size advantage, and grappling will be key. He expects Reyes to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision, though he warns that Silva de Andrade has power early and could replicate a past knockout of Reyes.

"I'm expecting Reyes to get a hold of him, drag him to the ground, and eventually grind him out and win this on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Reyes

Paul likes Reyes's finishing ability and believes Silva de Andrade's age, layoff, and health issues will be factors. He expects Reyes to win by knockout, possibly in the second or third round, and recommends the KO prop at +350.

Reyes by KO +350
"I got Reyes inside the distance. Reyes by KO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Javier Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Javier Reyes over the 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, who has looked poor in recent fights. He notes that Reyes has fought decent competition outside the UFC and is a young prospect, while Andrade has lost power and physicality moving up to featherweight. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Reyes.

29-28 decision
"Javier Reyes should win this one 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Zane picks Silva de Andrade despite his age and inactivity, because Reyes is a mess with poor footwork and no structure. Silva has a janky but effective style and has fought elite competition. However, Silva is 40, coming off a layoff, and has lost a step, making this a 50/50 toss-up.

Reyes opened at -210, now -215; Silva opened at +180, now +185.
"I'm still going to pick him. I think Ray is a real mess who has had a quite a long career against a very subpar competition."
CANCEL vs John Castañeda
UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Angelo picks John Castañeda, citing his youth, speed, and cardio advantage over the aging Douglas Silva de Andrade. He acknowledges that Andrade is a tough matchup with a solid chin and bowling-ball build, making him hard to take down. He expects Castañeda to win by outworking Andrade as he slows down, but warns that the fight could be close and suggests monitoring the line for value.

Monitor line for potential value
"I am going to pick cin here I am going to monitor this line though maybe we get lucky maybe it Titans I don't know he should win like I said younger faster busy but it is like fighting a …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Big Brady picks John Castañeda, citing age advantage (seven years younger), better volume, cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade is declining, with poor recent performances. He expects Castañeda to outwork him over 15 minutes and win by decision.

Castañeda by decision
"I like John Castan here I think he just going to outwork Douglas Silva Deandra over the course of 15 minutes... give me John Castan to win by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

The host believes Castañeda is the better overall fighter, though de Andrade can make it close with his power. He expects Castañeda to use a combination of striking, footwork, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

"I believe Castaneda is the better overall fighter here but Deandra can make things very close considering the power in which he throws with I think Cena will utilize a good combination of his striking footwork and takedowns to end …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
John Castañeda

The Guru picks John Castañeda over Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes Silva de Andrade is aging and less active, while Castañeda is durable, hard to finish, and pushes a strong pace. He expects Castañeda to win the later rounds and get a decision, possibly 29-28.

"I'm going with John castanada here over Douglas Silva de andr... Caston more grit youth less miles on him more volume more pressure."
LOSS vs Miles Johns
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 36 of 119 30% 36 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 50 of 96 52% 52 of 98 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 12 of 27 44% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 7 of 15 46% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miles Johns 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Miles Johns 0 14 of 51 27% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 18 of 36 50% 19 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 36 of 119 30% 21 of 80 6 of 21 9 of 18 36 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 50 of 96 52% 37 of 82 6 of 7 7 of 7 50 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 12 of 27 44% 7 of 16 1 of 4 4 of 7 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 7 of 15 46% 3 of 10 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 10 of 41 24% 4 of 24 4 of 13 2 of 4 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 25 of 45 55% 19 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 14 of 51 27% 10 of 40 1 of 4 3 of 7 14 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 18 of 36 50% 15 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.

Moneyline bet on Miles Johns
"I am still going Miles Johns here I do think he gets it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.

decision prop is decent on both sides
"I'm going to go John's to take the decision... the decision prop is actually decent on both sides."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.

"I'm gonna lean with Miles John's here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.

"I'm going Miles Johns he should be able to get it done but I mean if you have a bet on Miles Johns I bet in the middle of the second round you're going to be a little bit [__] …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.

"I do think that we're seeing an evolution and maturity in Miles John's game which will allow him to execute a game plan here to wear on the gas tank of Deandra"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.

found plus 117
"I bet I bet Douglas Silva de Andrade I found a plus 117 and he's my boy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, questioning whether Miles Johns can KO him. He notes Johns couldn't KO Cody Gibson and relies too much on overhands. He thinks Silva de Andrade has better wins (Cody Stamann, Sergey Morozov) and will make reads on Johns' power shots. He also mentions Silva de Andrade's competitive fights with Lerone Murphy and Nate Maness.

"I'm GNA go with Douglas Silva Deandra was not impressed by Jon's performance against Cody Gibson"
WIN vs Cody Stamann
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Douglas Silva de Andrade 1 54 of 139 38% 66 of 152 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:59
Cody Stamann 0 61 of 178 34% 72 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Cody Stamann 0 23 of 72 31% 23 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 14 of 44 31% 14 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Cody Stamann 0 21 of 52 40% 21 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Douglas Silva de Andrade 1 26 of 56 46% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
Cody Stamann 0 17 of 54 31% 28 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Douglas Silva de Andrade 54 of 139 38% 40 of 116 9 of 17 5 of 6 49 of 133 0 of 0 5 of 6
Cody Stamann 61 of 178 34% 17 of 108 23 of 43 21 of 27 60 of 175 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 14 of 39 35% 8 of 31 5 of 7 1 of 1 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 23 of 72 31% 7 of 42 7 of 15 9 of 15 22 of 69 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Douglas Silva de Andrade 14 of 44 31% 10 of 37 1 of 3 3 of 4 14 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 21 of 52 40% 4 of 30 9 of 14 8 of 8 21 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Douglas Silva de Andrade 26 of 56 46% 22 of 48 3 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 50 0 of 0 5 of 6
Cody Stamann 17 of 54 31% 6 of 36 7 of 14 4 of 4 17 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Angelo gives a slight lean to Cody Stamann, citing his wrestling and pace. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade hits hard and is strong at 135, but Stamann can stick with the pace. He says both are durable and if he bets, it would be over 2.5 rounds. He calls it a slight lean.

Over 2.5 rounds if bet
"I'm gonna give a slight a very slightly in the Cody here because he does have the wrestling he can stick with that pace"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Big Brady sees this as a close fight. He notes Stamann has a volume edge on the feet, but Andrade has a four-inch reach advantage and all the power and finishing upside. He mentions Andrade has good takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, making it hard for Stamann to hold him down. Brady expects a competitive striking match that likely goes to decision, and picks Andrade to win by landing the bigger shots and having the bigger moments, possibly via split decision.

goes to decision
"I'm going to pick andras here to win I think it's a close one I like the power of andrage I like the finishing upside from ultraage I'll take him to win just by Landing the bigger shots across three …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody picks Stamann but is hesitant, noting that Stamann often struggles against opponents he should beat. He points out Stamann's close fight with Luan Lacerda where he was outstruck in damage. He worries about de Andrade's power and takedown defense, and thinks the line is accurate. He expects a close decision.

"I think stamen wins I think statement wins but again I feel like I could get owned on this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Connor leans toward Stamann but is less confident, noting that Stamann's new aggressive style still has hitches and that de Andrade's power and unpredictability could cause problems. He thinks Stamann's counterpunching and body work are key, but de Andrade's wild swings could land. Connor sees this as a good test for Stamann's evolution.

"I think it's a very tough test basically of the new Cody stamen game."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann via decision, describing him as a solid, meat-and-potatoes fighter who does just enough to win. He notes that Stamann's fights are usually close, but he consistently edges out opponents. Levi acknowledges Silva de Andrade's power and submission threats, but believes Stamann's takedown defense and point fighting will earn him a narrow decision. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.

Stamann by decision; Silva de Andrade has finishing upside
"I'm gonna go statement via decision that's historically I always won these fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Stamann's speed and footwork will keep him out of danger against the aggressive, powerful Silva de Andrade. He can dart in and out with combinations, mix in takedowns to slow the Brazilian, and pull away later in the fight. Stamann is motivated and will put on a complete performance to win by decision.

"give me Cody stamen Cody statement by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul picks Stamann, expecting him to utilize his wrestling and pace. He notes that Stamann should avoid striking exchanges and take the fight to the ground. He thinks the line should be closer to -200 and sees value at -145. He mentions Stamann's takedown prop on PrizePicks.

over 1.5 takedowns for Stamann on PrizePicks
"I'm gonna side with stamen here I think stamen that one one and a half takedowns on prospects seems a little bit low I think he goes into this matchup and really utilizes his wrestling"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

The MMA Guru leans towards Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his toughness and dangerous pocket fighting. He notes that Cody Stamann has short reach and must be in the pocket, where Silva de Andrade is more dangerous. He predicts a close decision win.

decision 29-28
"I'm leaning towards Douglas silver deandraj... I think I'm gonna go if Douglas over the androg getting this one done by decision 2928"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Zane picks Cody Stamann, banking on his durability and newfound aggression. He notes that Stamann has never been knocked out and that his counterpunching and body work could exploit de Andrade's wild style. However, he acknowledges that de Andrade is dangerous and that Stamann's transformation is still incomplete, making this a tough test.

"I have to lean on Cody Stamen, not getting hurt. If he can fight fearlessly, I think he can outwork Douglas De Silva."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 28 of 74 37% 44 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 42 of 97 43% 77 of 150 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 9 of 30 30% 24 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 32 40% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Said Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 20 35% 20 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 12 of 26 46% 29 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 28 of 74 37% 4 of 34 11 of 19 13 of 21 24 of 66 2 of 3 2 of 5
Douglas Silva de Andrade 42 of 97 43% 21 of 69 12 of 18 9 of 10 39 of 89 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 8 of 22 36% 0 of 9 2 of 3 6 of 10 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 9 of 30 30% 4 of 22 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 28 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 32 40% 3 of 16 4 of 8 6 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 0 1 of 2
Douglas Silva de Andrade 21 of 41 51% 11 of 30 7 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Said Nurmagomedov 7 of 20 35% 1 of 9 5 of 8 1 of 3 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 3
Douglas Silva de Andrade 12 of 26 46% 6 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his cleaner and more versatile striking technique and solid defense. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade has more power but a negative striking differential. He believes Nurmagomedov's pace and striking defense will allow him to outpoint Silva de Andrade, though he must avoid the power. He sees this as a striker vs striker matchup.

"I like said to win here because he sets a nice pace and not only has the striking offense but the defense as well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, praising his flashy striking, defensive soundness, and youth. He notes that Nurmagomedov is hard to hit and has a well-rounded game with wrestling in his back pocket. He believes Silva de Andrade, despite his power and toughness, will struggle with Nurmagomedov's movement and volume. Brady predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, though he acknowledges a finish is possible.

"i really like nurmagomedov in this fight and i like him to win it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Cody thinks Said's superior speed, footwork, and lateral movement will be key against the shorter, stockier de Andrade. He believes Said can stay at distance and chip away, and has multiple paths to victory including a finish. He acknowledges de Andrade's durability and toughness but sees Said as the safer play.

Mentions over 2.5 rounds at +100 as a possible play.
"i think he's got a safe route to uh to a decision might be able to finish someone inside the distance and for that reason yeah yeah i've got to have some confidence in them"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not make a pick on the winner of this fight. He only bets on the under 2.5 rounds prop, which is his lock of the night play. He expects a finish regardless of who wins, likely from Nurmagomedov within the first two rounds. He does not pick a side on the moneyline.

Lock of the night: 4 units on under 2.5 rounds at -125. Expects Nurmagomedov to win quickly.
"the normaga Madoff and Dion draws under two and a half I have four units on minus 125 which makes it my luck of the Night play I'm quite confident that no matter which side wins this will they will …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn on this fight. He loves de Andrade as a dog but thinks the price is too wide. He calls it a dogger pass situation, noting that de Andrade has shown heart and durability but Said is very skilled. He doesn't commit to a pick.

"me i'm kind of staring as like a dogger pass but i wanted to hear what you had to say is there is there any merit to it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, noting his range and body kicks will trouble the shorter de Andrade. He predicts a submission (guillotine) in the second round, possibly after hurting de Andrade to the body. He mentions de Andrade's age (37) as a factor.

submission (guillotine) in the second round
"I'm going to go with Said Nurmagomedov getting this one done."
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:24 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Douglas Silva de Andrade 3 37 of 64 57% 57 of 86 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:55
Sergey Morozov 1 32 of 65 49% 62 of 99 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 15 of 30 50% 28 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sergey Morozov 1 23 of 40 57% 53 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
2 Douglas Silva de Andrade 3 22 of 34 64% 29 of 43 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:55
Sergey Morozov 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Douglas Silva de Andrade 37 of 64 57% 16 of 40 12 of 14 9 of 10 31 of 56 6 of 7 0 of 1
Sergey Morozov 32 of 65 49% 24 of 56 6 of 7 2 of 2 25 of 54 1 of 1 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 15 of 30 50% 6 of 19 3 of 4 6 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergey Morozov 23 of 40 57% 19 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 10
2 Douglas Silva de Andrade 22 of 34 64% 10 of 21 9 of 10 3 of 3 16 of 26 6 of 7 0 of 1
Sergey Morozov 9 of 25 36% 5 of 20 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Angelo picks Morozov due to his wrestling advantage, noting that Andrade has been taken down in every loss. He believes Morozov can hang with Andrade's power, set a hard pace, and mix in takedowns to win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's experience but thinks Morozov's pressure and top control will be decisive.

"i like morozov to win this fight and i like him to win because of the wrestling if you look at andraj's losses he was taken down in every single one of them"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady is impressed with Morozov's well-rounded game, especially his fight IQ and takedown ability. He notes Morozov showed good striking against Khalid Taha and took him down six times. Brady believes Morozov will take down Silva de Andrade multiple times and control him on the mat, leading to a decision win. He also points out Silva de Andrade is 36 and has only one submission win, relying mostly on knockouts.

Morozov by decision
"I think this is a pretty good spot for a decision win for sergey morozov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody picks Morozov, citing his high-level regional experience and grinding style. He notes Silva de Andrade has poor takedown defense and that Morozov can exploit that. He expects Morozov to take him down and control the fight.

"i gotta go with morizov man i really do like this guy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Daniel Levi picks Sergey Morozov by decision. He notes that Morozov showed big improvements in his last fight and that his clinch and pressure will be key. Silva de Andrade has holes in the clinch and tends to rest. Levi believes Morozov will work harder and win a decision.

"i think he will uh defeat douglas de silva by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Morozov has a clear grappling advantage and should dominate de Andrade on the ground. De Andrade has shown vulnerability to wrestlers in the past, struggling to get up from under opponents like Henan Barou. Morozov trains at American Top Team and has sharp boxing to close distance. The only way de Andrade wins is by knockout, but Morozov's chin and unorthodox striking make that unlikely. Already placed 3 units and may add more.

decision win for Morozov; may become lock of the night
"i'm all over sergey morizov here i love him in this spot um as of this recording i already have three units on him i might add another two and make him my lock of the night play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul admits he hasn't watched tape on this fight and defers to Cody's analysis. He doesn't make a clear pick.

"this is like the one fight that i haven't even been able to get around to watching any tape on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov, citing his grappling pressure and ability to slow down Douglas Silva de Andrade, who tends to fade. He notes Morozov's strong M1 Challenge background and believes he can secure a third-round rear-naked choke finish.

third round rear-naked choke
"i'm going with sergey morrisov here"
KO (punch) R1 2:04 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Douglas Silva de Andrade 1 10 of 15 66% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Gaetano Pirrello 0 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 1 10 of 15 66% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Gaetano Pirrello 0 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Douglas Silva de Andrade 10 of 15 66% 6 of 9 2 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 11 1 of 1 3 of 3
Gaetano Pirrello 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 3 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 10 of 15 66% 6 of 9 2 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 11 1 of 1 3 of 3
Gaetano Pirrello 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 3 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gaetano Pirrello

Angelo picks Gaetano Pirrello as the underdog, believing his world-class Muay Thai striking will be too much for Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes that Andrade is dropping down to 135, which may affect his chin, and that he rarely uses his wrestling despite having a clear path to victory via takedowns. Angelo thinks Pirrello will get to showcase his striking and that Andrade will be on the wrong end of it. He considers a moneyline bet at plus money and may include Pirrello in his knockout pool.

considering moneyline bet, knockout pool inclusion
"i honestly like guytano the underdog i like him here i think he'll get to showcase some of his striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Big Brady picks Douglas Silva de Andrade to win by knockout, but is not overly confident due to Andrade's age (36) and style. He notes Andrade is a striker who will brawl, which plays into Pirrello's hands as Pirrello is dangerous and has 14 of 17 wins inside the distance. However, Andrade has fought much better competition (Rob Font, Marlon Vera, etc.) while Pirrello looked poor in his UFC debut against Ricky Simone. Brady thinks the line is wide and prefers a violence play.

fight ends inside distance (violence play)
"i'll take androge to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Cody picks Andrade based on experience and durability. He notes that Andrade has fought tough competition and has a good chin. Pirrello is a striker who has not faced the same level of opposition. He expects Andrade to pressure and take over as Pirrello fades. However, he is not highly confident.

"i'm going to go with douglas andraj on the basis of the experience"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Daniel Levi picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his experience and ability to show up in fights. He notes Pirrello has issues with takedown defense and chin, but Silva is 36 at bantamweight and could be caught. Levi thinks at their best, Silva wins, but he does not recommend laying -240 due to the risk. He personally passes on betting but picks Silva to get it done.

"both guys at their best i i gotta go with douglas e silva it's just i personally don't feel comfortable laying a minus 250 price tag on a guy like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

I think Pirrello's cardio fades as the fight goes on, and Andrade is the better fighter everywhere. Andrade has good power and grappling, and Pirrello's defensive grappling is terrible. I like Andrade by decision at +175, but the moneyline is fine too. I'm not worried about Pirrello's early danger because Andrade can weather it.

Andrade by decision +175
"I do lean douglas though man even though he looks like he's 72 years old the guy is an absolute beast"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Paul also picks Andrade but is not confident. He notes that Andrade has not fought frequently and has a limited grappling game. Pirrello is a dangerous striker early. He thinks Andrade's experience will be the difference but is wary of the price.

"it's too bad that douglas silva don john doesn't have much of a grappling game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, noting that Gaetano Pirrello looked fundamentally unprepared in his debut against Ricky Simone. He believes Silva de Andrade is a big bantamweight with good wins, including over Marlon Vera. He expects a scrappy fight but predicts Silva de Andrade will win by unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going with douglas silver to andraj here he's got everything over guillotino pirillo"
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 48 of 115 41% 60 of 131 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:51
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 39 of 108 36% 51 of 121 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
2 Lerone Murphy 0 14 of 33 42% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 11 of 27 40% 15 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:05
3 Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 45 40% 25 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 17 of 43 39% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 48 of 115 41% 29 of 92 8 of 11 11 of 12 37 of 97 6 of 8 5 of 10
Douglas Silva de Andrade 39 of 108 36% 16 of 74 11 of 14 12 of 20 33 of 101 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 16 of 37 43% 8 of 27 3 of 5 5 of 5 15 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 11 of 38 28% 2 of 23 1 of 2 8 of 13 11 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 14 of 33 42% 8 of 25 2 of 3 4 of 5 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 11 of 27 40% 4 of 18 4 of 5 3 of 4 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 18 of 45 40% 13 of 40 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 31 2 of 4 5 of 10
Douglas Silva de Andrade 17 of 43 39% 10 of 33 6 of 7 1 of 3 12 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady thinks Lerone Murphy is the cleaner striker and has a reach advantage. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade is tough and throws volume, but believes Murphy's technique will prevail. He notes Murphy's wrestling is decent and he can work back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for Murphy, but says it could be close.

Murphy by decision
"i'm gonna slightly lean at laurel murphy to get a decision win here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The host likes Lerone Murphy's reach, power, and ground-and-pound, and believes he can either out-strike Douglas from distance or take him down for a finish. He notes Douglas's age and lack of takedown defense, and expects Murphy to win by second-round KO via ground and pound.

under 2.5 rounds at -115
"i'll go with lauren murphy via second round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, citing his dangerous stand-up, great grappling, and strength. He notes Murphy's win over Ricardo Ramos and his draw with Zubaira Tukhugov on short notice. He believes Douglas Silva de Andrade is too small for featherweight and will get overwhelmed, predicting a second or third round TKO.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"i'm gonna go with lauren murphy here by a tko in the third or second round"