UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Muin Gafurov
3.36 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
2.51 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.57 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rinya Nakamura
3.27 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
1.72 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.58 TD Avg
81.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Muin Gafurov - Fight History
LOSS vs Jakub Wiklacz
Submission R3 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muin Gafurov 0 79 of 158 50% 92 of 174 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:44
Jakub Wiklacz 0 56 of 148 37% 97 of 193 0 of 0 --- 2 2 4:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muin Gafurov 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Jakub Wiklacz 0 27 of 67 40% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Muin Gafurov 0 2 of 5 40% 11 of 17 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Jakub Wiklacz 0 7 of 11 63% 45 of 51 0 of 0 --- 1 1 4:19
3 Muin Gafurov 0 50 of 92 54% 54 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
Jakub Wiklacz 0 22 of 70 31% 22 of 71 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muin Gafurov 79 of 158 50% 43 of 110 34 of 43 2 of 5 68 of 144 11 of 14 0 of 0
Jakub Wiklacz 56 of 148 37% 23 of 89 32 of 56 1 of 3 44 of 133 7 of 9 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muin Gafurov 27 of 61 44% 17 of 47 9 of 11 1 of 3 21 of 53 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jakub Wiklacz 27 of 67 40% 9 of 41 17 of 24 1 of 2 24 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Muin Gafurov 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jakub Wiklacz 7 of 11 63% 3 of 6 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 6
3 Muin Gafurov 50 of 92 54% 25 of 60 24 of 30 1 of 2 45 of 86 5 of 6 0 of 0
Jakub Wiklacz 22 of 70 31% 11 of 42 11 of 27 0 of 1 18 of 65 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Angelo picks Muin Gafurov, expressing confusion that 81% of Tapology voters picked Jakub Wikłacz. He describes Gafurov as an aggressive Tajik wrestler with good skills, power, and cardio. He notes Wikłacz is a nasty grappler but reckless, and in his last fight against Patchy Mix, he had no offensive wrestling success and poor wrestling defense. He thinks Gafurov hits hard and can wrestle, making this a straightforward win for him.

"I think Muin wins this fight. I don't know what I'm missing here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Big Brady picks Muin Gafurov, noting that Gafurov is a well-rounded fighter who is a much better striker than Wikłacz. He believes Wikłacz needs to get the fight to the ground to win, but that will be difficult against Gafurov's wrestling and grappling. He expects Gafurov to win by decision.

by decision
"I like Gaffrov... I'm still going Gaffrov. I'm going to go Gaffrov to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jakub Wiklacz

Cody also picks Wikłacz, highlighting his experience in five-round fights and ability to scramble. He notes Gafurov's one-dimensional wrestling and poor cardio. Cody expects Wikłacz to win a decision, possibly a split.

"Give me the Polish power. Get the job done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jakub Wiklacz

Connor also picks Wiklacz, noting that Gafurov doesn't really make full use of his athletic ability to take command of a fight. He points out that Wiklacz is a solid, scrappy fighter who won't drift through the fight, unlike some of Gafurov's previous opponents. Connor expects a close fight but favors Wiklacz.

Wiklacz opened at +130, dropped to -115, back to +120; Gafurov opened at -150, currently -140
"I'll take Vic Watch as well. I think Gaffer does not really have the ability to, he doesn't really make full use of his athletic ability to take command of any fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Lucrative James leans toward Muin Gafurov to win, citing his power and wrestling advantage. However, he is not confident because Gafurov can make poor decisions, like diving into submissions. James notes that Wikłacz is dangerous with submissions, so this is a close fight.

"I'm going to lean with Gaffarov just because on paper, he can win this fight if he comes in with good fight IQ and good game plan."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jakub Wiklacz

The host picks Wikłacz, liking the plus money. He believes Wikłacz's height and reach advantage will allow him to stick Gafurov from distance, and that Gafurov's desperation takedowns will play into Wikłacz's submission game, particularly his guillotine. He notes Wikłacz is a solid submission specialist with a good kicking game and active submission threats, and that Gafurov has shown vulnerabilities to submissions in the past.

submission win
"I got to go with the poll here. I like that we're getting plus money on him right off the bat here. So, I'm going to go Yakov Vicwatch and I think he gets the submission win over Muen Gaffrov."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jakub Wiklacz

Paul picks Jakub Wikłacz, citing his superior volume and cardio. He notes Gafurov's low output and tendency to tire. Paul expects Wikłacz to take over in later rounds and win a decision, especially with judges favoring damage.

"I think I'm going to take Yakob White Claus again. He's plus money and he just cashes plus money."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Jakub Wiklacz

The host picks Jakub Wikłacz (referred to as Youssef Wehbe, likely a mistake) over Muin Gafurov. He thinks Wikłacz is a decent prospect with submission ability and can get the better of grappling positions. He predicts a submission finish in the first two rounds.

submission in first two rounds
"I'm going to say that Youssef Wehbe gets a submission in the first two rounds over Muin Gafurov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jakub Wiklacz

Zane leans toward Wiklacz, noting that he is a big bantamweight who can make Gafurov's control difficult and will scrap the whole time. He believes Wiklacz is more likely to be scrapping consistently, while Gafurov doesn't make full use of his athletic ability. Zane expects a close fight.

Wiklacz opened at +130, dropped to -115, back to +120; Gafurov opened at -150, currently -140
"I think I'm going to take Vic Wash. Yeah. I'm leading that way myself that he can just with his size as a pretty big Bantam weight. Yep. He can make a lot of the control stuff that Gaffer would …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muin Gafurov 0 31 of 73 42% 39 of 82 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 1 37 of 90 41% 73 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muin Gafurov 0 10 of 24 41% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 29 41% 42 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
2 Muin Gafurov 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Muin Gafurov 0 12 of 25 48% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muin Gafurov 31 of 73 42% 10 of 44 8 of 9 13 of 20 28 of 70 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 37 of 90 41% 20 of 65 9 of 12 8 of 13 32 of 76 4 of 7 1 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muin Gafurov 10 of 24 41% 0 of 8 3 of 4 7 of 12 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 12 of 29 41% 6 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 6
2 Muin Gafurov 9 of 24 37% 5 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 14 of 32 43% 10 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 4 10 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 1
3 Muin Gafurov 12 of 25 48% 5 of 18 4 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 11 of 29 37% 4 of 19 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo is very confident in Rinya Nakamura, highlighting his high-level wrestling, power, and the fact that Muin Gafurov was taken down three times by Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Nakamura's wrestling advantage will be decisive and that the -400 price is justified, unlike other favorites on the card.

"Rena Nakamura is the very confident pick he absolutely gets this done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Rinya Nakamura confidently, viewing him as a top prospect. He highlights Nakamura's Olympic-level wrestling, fluid transitions, and improving striking. Cody notes that Gafurov has poor takedown defense and tends to gas, as seen against John Castaneda. Nakamura's wrestling and cardio should be too much. Cody expects Nakamura to take Gafurov down repeatedly and control the fight, possibly earning a finish. Nakamura is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Mentions submission prop at +575 as a possibility, but not a strong play.
"renho is at the top I I would put Rena right at the top which you most definitely can if you just want to be a little conservative then that's the move"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Nakamura, citing his physicality, strong grappling, and good hands. He notes that Gafurov is well-rounded but lacks athleticism and can be out-hustled. Daniel expects a competitive decision but thinks Nakamura grinds out the win. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says it's a favor to pass situation. He expects Nakamura to grind out a decision.
"I'm gonna take the big favorite here but I do think it could be a competitive decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host sees Nakamura as the future of the division, praising his wrestling, chain wrestling, and knockout power. He expects Nakamura to use a combination of those traits to win a decision over Gafurov.

"I think Nakamura is the future of this Division and his wrestling obviously allows him to stay safe in most positions he chain wrestles very well he knows when to implement it and he has huge knockout power I expect …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nakamura. He notes that Gafurov has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Nakamura's wrestling pedigree is elite. Paul believes Nakamura will find takedowns early and often, banking control time. He also mentions that a submission is possible but not guaranteed. Nakamura is a solid parlay piece for Paul.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I like I like Rena as well with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura but expresses hesitation. He worries about Nakamura's wrestling-heavy style that may not translate to finishes in MMA, similar to Raul Rosas Jr. However, he notes that Muin Gafurov is 'fat and terrible' and that Nakamura has dangerous stand-up with pop on his punches. He also likes that Nakamura had time off to fix issues and expects him to come in good form.

"I'm going to go over R Nakamura I do worry that we are going to see a bit of a more Asian version of a Ral rosis Jr fraud check"
WIN vs Kyung Ho Kang
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muin Gafurov 0 12 of 35 34% 119 of 152 3 of 11 27% 0 0 4:56
Kyung Ho Kang 0 47 of 71 66% 110 of 144 1 of 3 33% 0 1 6:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muin Gafurov 0 3 of 11 27% 43 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:39
Kyung Ho Kang 0 15 of 21 71% 44 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:02
2 Muin Gafurov 0 9 of 16 56% 40 of 49 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:54
Kyung Ho Kang 0 22 of 33 66% 40 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:09
3 Muin Gafurov 0 0 of 8 0% 36 of 51 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:23
Kyung Ho Kang 0 10 of 17 58% 26 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muin Gafurov 12 of 35 34% 8 of 28 2 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1
Kyung Ho Kang 47 of 71 66% 27 of 45 10 of 14 10 of 12 25 of 47 6 of 6 16 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muin Gafurov 3 of 11 27% 0 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kyung Ho Kang 15 of 21 71% 10 of 14 2 of 4 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 8 of 8
2 Muin Gafurov 9 of 16 56% 8 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kyung Ho Kang 22 of 33 66% 9 of 17 6 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 24 4 of 4 5 of 5
3 Muin Gafurov 0 of 8 0% 0 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kyung Ho Kang 10 of 17 58% 8 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 1 5 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Angelo picks Muin Gafurov, noting he was winless in the UFC but has the wrestling and durability to win. He worries about Muin's willingness to brawl because Kang has power, but thinks Muin's wrestling and durability will work for him. He regrets not betting Muin when he was -110 instead of the current -160. He also mentions a potential takedown prop bet on Muin.

Considering takedown prop; mentioned DraftKings takedown lines
"I do think muin wins this fight he is going to be the pick and I'm wishing I placed a bet on him when I saw him at minus1 10"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Big Brady picks Muin Gafurov despite his recent struggles, citing his youth and activity advantage. He expects the fight to go to a close decision, with Gafurov landing the better and harder strikes. Brady acknowledges Gafurov's chin issues and Kang's toughness, but believes Gafurov's volume and power will edge him the win.

"I'm going to take mu Gaff who's younger I think he's going to be more active I think he's going to be landing the better strikes the harder strikes give me mu Gaff to win this fight by very close …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyung Ho Kang

Cody picks Kang, citing his superior cardio, grappling, and striking. He notes Gafurov's tendency to gas and lack of finishing ability. Kang's ability to get back up and outwork opponents in later rounds is key. He expects a decision win.

"I see the slight plus money uh for killo Kang and I agree with it I think he's an excellent pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Daniel Vreeland picks Muin Gafurov to win a hard-fought decision, citing his higher pace and skill set. He notes Kang's experience and durability but believes Gafurov's pressure will be too much. He is concerned about Gafurov's cardio and chin but thinks he can outwork Kang.

"I'm G pick Gaff via a hardfought decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Jacob likes Muin but is not confident enough to bet him. He notes Muin has bigger moments and power, but worries about Kang's sneaky submissions. He recalls Muin's predictable guillotine loss to Silva and thinks Kang could catch him similarly. Jacob wants to see Muin get a win before betting him, especially against a guy who can be sneaky good like Kang.

"I like muin here but I don't love it man... I need him to win before I'm betting him at this point"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

JP dismisses this fight as a 'poop Bowl' and says he won't bet on it, but he leans toward Gafurov as a toss-up. Brevan agrees, calling it a boring fight and advising viewers to skip it. He notes Gafurov's wrestling base and susceptibility to guillotines, but Kang's lack of guillotine wins makes that less of a threat. Both are unenthusiastic and avoid a strong pick.

"I'll go for muine gabov probably but this is one where I'm just both of them are cheeks"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyung Ho Kang

Paul picks Kang, noting his durability and pace. He believes Gafurov's cardio issues will be exploited and that Kang can force a hard 15 minutes. He likes the plus money on Kang.

"it's got to be Mr perfect for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kyung Ho Kang

The MMA Guru picks Kyung Ho Kang over Muin Gafurov, citing Kang's talent and reach advantage. He criticizes Gafurov's body type and competition level, noting that Gafurov lost to Christian Quinones on the Contender Series. He believes Kang's takedown defense and striking at range will be key, and that he will sting Gafurov as the fight goes on. He predicts a 2-1 decision for Kang.

"I'm going to go Kung Hyo Kang here over mu gafarov maybe I'm off on this but I've got another feeling about this matchup I think gafarov is like who invited this guy."
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:13 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Muin Gafurov 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Muin Gafurov 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov but fades the bet. He notes Gafurov's wrestling could be a problem, as seen when Kakhramonov dominated Said with takedowns. However, he thinks Gafurov might get sucked into a brawl, where Said's striking will prevail. He is wary of the clear path to beat Said via wrestling.

fade the bet
"s marov is going to be the pick here but again this is another fight that could just be sort of a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by second round submission. He notes that Gafurov is reckless, gets hurt often, and has a questionable chin, while Nurmagomedov has power and a dangerous guillotine. Brady expects Nurmagomedov to hurt Gafurov on the feet, then snatch a submission when Gafurov shoots for a takedown.

second round submission
"see meide her magedov to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his well-rounded skills and ability to mix striking with wrestling. He notes that Gafurov gasses out and has been out-struck by lesser opponents, while Nurmagomedov has better speed, volume, and wrestling. Cody expects Nurmagomedov to drown Gafurov in deeper waters and win a decision or late finish.

"I like Said quite a bit so again here's no actual relation to Khabib Nurmagomedov but he's rocking that last name and he's trying to do them proud"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Said Nurmagomedov to win, citing his length, explosiveness, and dynamic kicking style. He notes that Nurmagomedov has a gas tank issue due to his explosive style but believes he is on a different level than Gafurov. He respects Gafurov's heart and well-roundedness but thinks the athleticism and size disparity will be too much. He expects Nurmagomedov to win a decision but says Gafurov could raise his stock in defeat.

Nurmagomedov minus 205, Gafurov plus 175; mentions possibility of decision
"My pick is s Nago medov um I think the length the explosiveness is going to be a little bit too much for gaffo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Nurmagomedov lacks output and assertiveness, relying on spectacular finishes. Gafurov has good forward movement, volume, and a wrestling game. He can set the pace and manage his gas tank better. As long as Gafurov doesn't get caught in a choke or knocked out, he can win by decision. He is a solid underdog spot.

"I think he could be a solid Underdog spot here against Nar goov"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Nurmagomedov, citing his diverse striking, high fight IQ, and ability to adapt. He notes that Gafurov has poor cardio and has struggled against lower-level competition, while Nurmagomedov has shown he can compete with top bantamweights. Paul expects Nurmagomedov to use his speed and wrestling to outwork Gafurov, likely winning a decision.

Said by decision (+230)
"I think Said by decision is how I would approach this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru calls this a mismatch and picks Said Nurmagomedov. He notes that Gafurov lost to John Castaneda and Chad Anheliger, while Nurmagomedov had a close fight with Jonathan Martinez, who is very good. He believes Nurmagomedov is top-15 level and has higher finishing potential.

"I think this is an absolute mismatch I don't know why they've done this one"
LOSS vs John Castañeda
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
John Castañeda 1 40 of 88 45% 70 of 121 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:16
Muin Gafurov 0 61 of 157 38% 93 of 204 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 John Castañeda 1 18 of 32 56% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Muin Gafurov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
2 John Castañeda 0 15 of 40 37% 25 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Muin Gafurov 0 29 of 86 33% 44 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:14
3 John Castañeda 0 7 of 16 43% 20 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:45
Muin Gafurov 0 11 of 27 40% 28 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
John Castañeda 40 of 88 45% 30 of 73 4 of 8 6 of 7 37 of 83 1 of 2 2 of 3
Muin Gafurov 61 of 157 38% 45 of 135 11 of 16 5 of 6 47 of 132 14 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 John Castañeda 18 of 32 56% 11 of 21 2 of 5 5 of 6 16 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 3
Muin Gafurov 21 of 44 47% 14 of 33 4 of 7 3 of 4 17 of 37 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 John Castañeda 15 of 40 37% 14 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 29 of 86 33% 23 of 78 5 of 7 1 of 1 20 of 71 9 of 15 0 of 0
3 John Castañeda 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 11 of 27 40% 8 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
John Castaneda vs. Muin Gafurov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
An action-packed bantamweight clash should treat fans next, as “Sexi Mexi” Castaneda (19-6, 2-2 UFC) collides with Tajikistani newcomer Gafurov (18-4, 0-0 UFC). The latter will hope to end the night with a sweep for his country, and he brings with him a 94% stoppage rate to keep the American on his toes. Referee Chris Tognoni will need to similarly be ready for anything, and he appears prepared as the fighters clap hands together. Gafurov is the first one to strike, potentially energized by his countryman getting his hand raised moments ago. He swings his way into an engagement, and Castaneda slides out of the way and avoids the brunt of the danger. Castaneda slides to his side, and Gafurov gives chase and goes after a takedown. “Sexi Mexi” escapes it and absorbs a body kick on the way out, and he tries to reply with one of his own. Gafurov wings a right hand over the top to get his foe’s attention, and he connects partially with an axe kick and a spinning wheel kick that give Castaneda pause. Castaneda sticks out a straight left hand to snap the head back, and he chips at the lead calf with a kick. Castaneda has a kick caught, and Gafurov lifts it up high and tries to take the fight down, but cannot. Castaneda evades the lunging, winging strikes whizzing at him, and he bats away a spinning back kick aimed at his midsection. Castaneda gets in another straight punch to redden the nose, and he sends the shin upside the head. Straight lefts from Castaneda continue to find their home cleanly, further disrupting the ultra-aggressive Gafurov. “Tajik” ducks down with a right hand, and Castaneda replies with a high kick that rings Gafurov’s bell. Castaneda bowls his man over with a series of punches, having hurt Gafurov with the kick, but he cannot keep him there. Gafurov works his way up, the two wildly scramble, and they return to space to strike. The Tajikistan-based fighter scores a body kick and bullies Castaneda back to the wall to unload with several punches to the body before Castaneda can get out. Gafurov swings and misses before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda

Round 2
The bantamweights touch gloves to re-introduce themselves to one another, and Gafurov appears to have fully recovered from the knockdown. Gafurov is fired up, and he chases Castaneda around the cage throwing everything he has at him. The two clash heads, but Tognoni does it see it even as Gafurov protests. This leads to Gafurov getting angry, and he wants to make Castaneda pay for this transgression and swings for the bleachers again and again. Gafurov sweeps the leg with a calf kick, and Castaneda pops back up and uses a body lock to drag “Tajik” to the mat. Castaneda takes the back during a scramble, and he latches on to a rear-naked choke and slides the arm under the chin. Gafurov stands back up and shakes Castaneda off, and he gets up and begins drilling Castaneda with an onslaught of punches. As Gafurov is advancing, he gets tagged, and he races ahead and ends up headbutting Castaneda squarely on the chin. Tognoni pauses the action, and he deducts one point from Gafurov for what he determines to be an intentional headbutt and not an incidental head clash, with Gafurov leading with his head ducked . Castaneda takes the time he needs to recover from the foul, and when they resume, Gafurov is ready to engage and lash out any way he can. Gafurov drives forward with strikes, and ends up pursuing a takedown that he secures briefly. Castaneda rolls to his knees and powers his way back up, and Gafurov is on him with a front kick to the body and a few punches. Castaneda is giving it as much as he is receiving, but he is not swinging as wildly and reckless as his opponent. Gafurov throws everything he has into his punches, and Castaneda counters him cleanly and staggers the Tajikistani fighter. Castaneda elects to crash forward for a low takedown by the ankles, and Gafurov fights it off by grabbing the fence. The round ends with the two tied up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 9-9
Tyler Treese scores the round: 9-9

Round 3
Tognoni sternly warns Gafurov through the interpreter between rounds, as heads have bumped together repeatedly through this match. When they begin fighting, Gafurov leads off with a low kick that nearly sweeps the leg, and Castaneda recovers and leans back from a looping left hand. Gafurov recklessly pursues a takedown, and Castaneda escapes it and returns to his feet where he belts Gafurov with a right hand and a left to follow. Gafurov replies with a body kick, and Castaneda is pressing the action while Gafurov is just throwing with overhands that largely do not land. Castaneda clinches up and has his ear slapped a few times, and he spins with a back elbow on the break. Gafurov shakes it off and eats a body kick, but he is not faltering in spamming wide-arced hooks. Castaneda ducks them and ties his man up again, and Gafurov signals to Tognoni that he was the victim of a headbutt or some clash. When he is paying attention to the referee, he does not keep his balance, as Castaneda slings him to the floor. Castaneda stacks his man up until Gafurov turns to his knees and partially gives his back up. Gafurov tugs the fence a few times to pull himself upright, and Castaneda is doggedly pursuing the takedown as Gafurov appears to be fading. Castaneda lifts Gafurov up, and Gafurov grabs the cage with both hands to stop the takedown from succeeding. Castaneda exerts enough energy for a second attempt, and this time, Gafurov is not able to foul his way to remain on his feet. When Gafurov lowers to his knees, Castaneda searches for a rear-naked choke. Time expires before anything can come of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda (29-27 Castaneda)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda (29-27 Castaneda)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda (29-27 Castaneda)

The Official Result
John Castaneda def. Muin Gafurov via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Angelo has a very slight lean to Castañeda due to Gafurov being on short notice. He notes Castañeda's forward pressure and D2 wrestling, but is concerned about his takedown defense (60%). He acknowledges Gafurov is a savage with power and good wrestling, but the short notice gives Castañeda the edge. Angelo also has a plus money bet on Gafurov, contradicting his lean.

Has a plus money bet on Gafurov.
"very very slight lean for Castaneda because of the short notice but I do have a plus money bet at plus one oh my God I forgot that you did"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Gafurov's cardio problems and that he missed weight on Contender Series. He thinks Gafurov on a week's notice is likely to gas out and that Castañeda's wrestling and cardio are better. Cody also mentions Gafurov's weight cut issues and advises caution.

"yeah that all makes sense to me you got my vote"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
John Castañeda

Connor also picks Castañeda, agreeing with Zane that the short notice factor is significant. He notes that Gafurov's pressure and wrestling are a good stylistic matchup against Castañeda, but questions whether Gafurov can be effective without proper preparation. Connor sees Castañeda as a tough, busy counter-striker who can handle a slower-paced fight if Gafurov fades.

"I'll take castaneda as well, but it is it is kind of an x factor pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Daniel explains he bet Gafurov at plus money, citing Castañeda's extremely low output (never over 60 strikes in a UFC fight). He believes Gafurov's pace and wrestling will overwhelm Castañeda, and that Gafurov has improved since his Contender Series loss, where he was sick and on short notice. He sees this as a value play at underdog odds.

"I actually took gafferov earlier today on Pinnacle and it was not plus 115 it was plus one fourth plus 114"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Jacob picks Gafurov, believing he can outwork Castañeda with takedowns and power. He notes Gafurov has been training and staying ready, and his LFA fights showed improved conditioning. Jacob thinks Gafurov's body work and power will break down Castañeda, who got tired in his last fight. He is not concerned about short notice because Gafurov has been preparing for this opportunity.

"I think Moen just kind of grinds him gets the takedowns maybe finds him a big shot on the feet but I think he pulls out this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Gafurov is an improved striker who blends takedowns well. Castañeda is solid but struggles with forward pressure and power. Gafurov's relentless style and improved striking will allow him to win a decision. He is a slight underdog and one of the better dogs on the card.

"I'm going to lean with him in this matchup I know he's the slight Underdog here and I think he is probably one of the better underdogs on this card"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Paul picks Castañeda, citing Gafurov's cardio issues and weight cut problems on short notice. He notes Gafurov is strong early but fades, and that Castañeda has decent wrestling and power. Paul advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Gafurov's history of missing weight. He thinks Castañeda can survive the early onslaught and take over later.

"I'm going to take John castanata but 100 keeping my eye on weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

The MMA Guru picks Muin Gafurov over John Castañeda, citing Castañeda coming off a brutal KO loss. He notes Gafurov's experience at a high level, including a close split decision loss to Chad Anheliger (decided by a big knockdown) and a loss to John Lineker. Gafurov is on a two-fight finish streak and has fought in UAE Warriors and ONE Championship. The Guru acknowledges Gafurov took the fight on short notice but still thinks he gets the win.

"I'm gonna have to go with gaffarov over John Castaneda just because John Castaneda... coming off a brutal KO loss"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
John Castañeda

Zane picks Castañeda primarily due to Gafurov taking the fight on short notice, which raises questions about his conditioning and preparation. He acknowledges that Gafurov's wrestling and pressure could work well against Castañeda, who tends to let opponents set the pace. However, Zane is unsure if Gafurov can maintain his output without a full camp, and leans toward Castañeda's durability and ability to outwork a fading opponent.

"I think I should just pick castaneda for the short notice"
Rinya Nakamura - Fight History
KO/TKO R1 1:02 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Nathan Fletcher 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Nathan Fletcher 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4
Nathan Fletcher 3 of 7 42% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4
Nathan Fletcher 3 of 7 42% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Muin Gafurov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muin Gafurov 0 31 of 73 42% 39 of 82 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 1 37 of 90 41% 73 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muin Gafurov 0 10 of 24 41% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 29 41% 42 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
2 Muin Gafurov 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Muin Gafurov 0 12 of 25 48% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muin Gafurov 31 of 73 42% 10 of 44 8 of 9 13 of 20 28 of 70 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 37 of 90 41% 20 of 65 9 of 12 8 of 13 32 of 76 4 of 7 1 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muin Gafurov 10 of 24 41% 0 of 8 3 of 4 7 of 12 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 12 of 29 41% 6 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 6
2 Muin Gafurov 9 of 24 37% 5 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 14 of 32 43% 10 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 4 10 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 1
3 Muin Gafurov 12 of 25 48% 5 of 18 4 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 11 of 29 37% 4 of 19 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo is very confident in Rinya Nakamura, highlighting his high-level wrestling, power, and the fact that Muin Gafurov was taken down three times by Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Nakamura's wrestling advantage will be decisive and that the -400 price is justified, unlike other favorites on the card.

"Rena Nakamura is the very confident pick he absolutely gets this done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Rinya Nakamura confidently, viewing him as a top prospect. He highlights Nakamura's Olympic-level wrestling, fluid transitions, and improving striking. Cody notes that Gafurov has poor takedown defense and tends to gas, as seen against John Castaneda. Nakamura's wrestling and cardio should be too much. Cody expects Nakamura to take Gafurov down repeatedly and control the fight, possibly earning a finish. Nakamura is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Mentions submission prop at +575 as a possibility, but not a strong play.
"renho is at the top I I would put Rena right at the top which you most definitely can if you just want to be a little conservative then that's the move"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Nakamura, citing his physicality, strong grappling, and good hands. He notes that Gafurov is well-rounded but lacks athleticism and can be out-hustled. Daniel expects a competitive decision but thinks Nakamura grinds out the win. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says it's a favor to pass situation. He expects Nakamura to grind out a decision.
"I'm gonna take the big favorite here but I do think it could be a competitive decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host sees Nakamura as the future of the division, praising his wrestling, chain wrestling, and knockout power. He expects Nakamura to use a combination of those traits to win a decision over Gafurov.

"I think Nakamura is the future of this Division and his wrestling obviously allows him to stay safe in most positions he chain wrestles very well he knows when to implement it and he has huge knockout power I expect …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nakamura. He notes that Gafurov has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Nakamura's wrestling pedigree is elite. Paul believes Nakamura will find takedowns early and often, banking control time. He also mentions that a submission is possible but not guaranteed. Nakamura is a solid parlay piece for Paul.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I like I like Rena as well with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura but expresses hesitation. He worries about Nakamura's wrestling-heavy style that may not translate to finishes in MMA, similar to Raul Rosas Jr. However, he notes that Muin Gafurov is 'fat and terrible' and that Nakamura has dangerous stand-up with pop on his punches. He also likes that Nakamura had time off to fix issues and expects him to come in good form.

"I'm going to go over R Nakamura I do worry that we are going to see a bit of a more Asian version of a Ral rosis Jr fraud check"
WIN vs Carlos Vera
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 38 of 70 54% 73 of 114 3 of 3 100% 0 0 13:03
Carlos Vera 0 12 of 25 48% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 31 51% 24 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:20
Carlos Vera 0 6 of 8 75% 18 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 18 66% 25 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:34
Carlos Vera 0 2 of 6 33% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Carlos Vera 0 4 of 11 36% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 38 of 70 54% 30 of 61 6 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 30 of 60
Carlos Vera 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 1 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 15 1 of 2 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 31 51% 11 of 26 4 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 28
Carlos Vera 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Rinya Nakamura 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 16
Carlos Vera 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Rinya Nakamura 10 of 21 47% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 16
Carlos Vera 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo calls Rinya Nakamura a lock, citing his high-level wrestling, submissions, and power. He notes Carlos Vera is stepping up on short notice and has poor takedowns. He advises against parlaying Nakamura if the odds are too high, but expects him to win easily.

"Rena is going to be a lock... the wrestling the pressure the grappling awareness is going to be more than enough to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady picks Rinya Nakamura to win by first-round submission. He calls it a terrible matchup for Carlos Vera, who has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He expects Nakamura to take him down easily and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He questions why the fight was sanctioned given the massive favorite line.

Nakamura by submission, round 1
"give me Ren Nakamura here not a hot take he's minus a thousand but you know I think he uh passes this test and that is Carlos Vera so give me Ria Nakamura I'll say first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura, agreeing he is the goods. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physical strength. He mentions that Vera is a late replacement who lost on TUF and is not UFC caliber. He expects Nakamura to take him down and submit him, though he warns that Fernie Garcia was hard to submit.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"I got a gut feeling the submission play is on the table because when you look at Carlos Vera he's been submitted before he struggles with Grapplers..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, agreeing with Jeff. He says even if it weren't short notice, Nakamura would be the pick. He doesn't elaborate further, but his agreement is clear.

"obviously Nakamura is is the pick here as well even if it wasn't short notice he would be the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinya Nakamura, stating he is better everywhere—more explosive, stronger, better striker and grappler. He considers it a mismatch and believes Nakamura can neutralize Vera's opportunistic submissions. He thinks the odds are accurate.

"I think Ren is better everywhere... mismatch."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Jeff picks Rinya Nakamura, stating it's an obvious choice. He notes that Carlos Vera lost to Brad Katona on TUF, getting manhandled. He thinks Vera's tendency to jump guillotine will make Nakamura's takedowns easier. He expects Nakamura to dominate on top and suggests looking at round 1 submission props.

round 1 submission
"Carlos Vera... lost to Brad Katona basically getting manhandled by Brad Katona if you're getting manhandled by Brad Katona you have no hope against Nakamura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with Olympic pedigree, but has relied on power punching recently. He has all advantages over the 36-year-old debuting Vera. Expects Nakamura to go 9-0 with an early stoppage.

"I expect him to go 9 and0 this weekend with another early stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura, calling him the best prospect from Road to UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling accolades, power, and grappling. He sees Vera as a 36-year-old debutant who lost on TUF and is being fed to Nakamura. He suggests a submission prop, as Vera has been submitted before and gives up his back.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"Ren is the pick but is there value on a minus 900?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his superior grappling potential and dangerous striking. He criticizes Carlos Vera as an older fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts Nakamura could get a KO early or a ground-and-pound decision, though he notes Nakamura needs to work on finishing from dominant positions.

"I'm just gonna have to side with the grappling of Rinya Nakamura... this old man ain't beating Rinya Nakamura."
WIN vs Fernie Garcia
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 36 of 57 63% 56 of 84 4 of 4 100% 3 0 9:26
Fernie Garcia 0 15 of 66 22% 50 of 106 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 9 of 13 69% 17 of 25 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Fernie Garcia 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 22 50% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:31
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 28 21% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 22 72% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:00
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 30 20% 13 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 36 of 57 63% 16 of 31 10 of 13 10 of 13 25 of 44 0 of 0 11 of 13
Fernie Garcia 15 of 66 22% 9 of 53 4 of 7 2 of 6 13 of 63 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 9 of 13 69% 3 of 5 4 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 7
Fernie Garcia 3 of 8 37% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Rinya Nakamura 11 of 22 50% 5 of 14 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 28 21% 3 of 22 1 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 22 72% 8 of 12 3 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 30 20% 4 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 1 6 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo believes Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with powerful striking and should dominate Garcia. He notes that Nakamura is a -700 favorite, but he personally avoids betting such heavy favorites due to the risk, citing examples like Valentina Shevchenko losing as a huge favorite. He thinks Nakamura wins 99 out of 100 times but won't lay the price.

"ring is going to dominate if you want to lay out 700 bucks to win 100 or 7 000 win a thousand go for it it should cash but I'd rather not part with that much money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is very high on Rinya Nakamura, calling him a future star with excellent wrestling, grappling, and power. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Fernie Garcia, who was dominated by a lesser wrestler in Brady Hiestand. He expects Nakamura to finish the fight in the first round, whether by knockout or submission, and criticizes the matchmaking.

first round finish
"I think Nakamura is the future I really do and I think he goes out there and styles on Fernie Garcia and gets it done in round one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody is high on Nakamura as a top prospect with elite wrestling and improving striking. He expects Nakamura to dominate Garcia, who has shown poor takedown defense. Cody likes the submission prop at plus 275, noting Nakamura's grappling pedigree.

Nakamura by submission +275
"renya Nakamura is going to win him by sub at 275"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and power. He notes that Nakamura can fall back on his wrestling if the striking gets tough, and that Garcia is a liability on the ground. He mentions that Garcia has heavy hands but low output and poor takedown defense. He is confident Nakamura wins, though he notes that Nakamura sometimes gets clipped standing.

"I think renya is one of the better Japanese prospects and you know I I'm picking him to win here it's just the question is knock out submission or decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Rinya Nakamura

James is confident Nakamura wins but does not bet due to the short odds. He notes Nakamura is a brutal round one finisher but warns that the fight could go to decision if Nakamura wrestles. He sees Garcia as a tough guy who can survive, and considers the over 1.5 rounds at +150 as a potential play, though he ultimately passes.

over 1.5 rounds at +150 considered but not bet
"I think renya is going to win the fight handedly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host highlights Nakamura's wrestling background and finishing ability, noting he has finished all but one opponent. He expects Nakamura to take Garcia down easily, as Garcia has struggled with wrestlers before (e.g., Brady Hiestand). The host predicts a finish within the first two rounds and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to get a finish within the first two rounds so give me renya Nakamura to dominate and continue his reign of success."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees Nakamura is a huge favorite and a setup fight by the UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Garcia. Paul expects a win but is cautious about the price, suggesting a decision or submission.

"huge favorite absolutely huge favorite and at least Max always a proven commodity and this kid is not a proven commodity"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura as the lock of the card, predicting a first-round knockout of Fernie Garcia. He praises Nakamura's wrestling background, KO power, and chin, calling him one of the best prospects. He dismisses Garcia as a 31-year-old on a two-fight losing streak. He believes Nakamura has advantages in wrestling, stand-up, power, and chin, and will smoke Garcia in the first two minutes.

KO in round 1 predicted; lock of the card
"I think that actually is my look at a card ... ring in akamura is going to smoke him in the first two minutes I really believe"
KO (punch) R1 0:33 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is high on Nakamura's world-class wrestling and knockout power. He thinks Kazama will struggle to take down a wrestler of Nakamura's caliber and will be knocked out early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like him to knock out toshiom in the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura inside the distance, calling him the best prospect on the card. He notes Nakamura's world-class wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He expects Nakamura to take Kazama down and finish, possibly by submission. He also considers a small sprinkle on Nakamura by submission at +800.

Nakamura inside the distance (-125); Nakamura by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"I took renya Nakamura inside the distance at minus 125... I'm considering adding him by submission because that's like plus 800"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Connor agrees, noting that Kazama's insistence on wrestling will play into Nakamura's strengths. He points out that Kazama's bag of tricks may not work against a superior athlete, and that Nakamura has shown rapid improvement. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Nakamura to showcase his development.

"It's easy to see why this is the big favorite matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura inside the distance, emphasizing his wrestling background and MMA upbringing. He notes Nakamura's ability to strike or grapple, and expects him to knock out Kazama. He thinks Kazama's guard-pulling style will not work against Nakamura's physicality.

"I think I think Nakamura knocks him out um doesn't submit him but either way we both like them we both like them inside the distance"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Zane highlights Nakamura's rapid improvement and wrestling background, noting that he has become a more aggressive combination puncher with natural instincts for pressuring. He contrasts this with Kazama, who is crafty but not a great athlete and tends to lose wrestling exchanges as fights go on. He believes Nakamura's higher ceiling and athleticism will prevail.

"A pretty straightforward pick for uh, the the super prospect in nakamura, yeah."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo is very confident in Rinya Nakamura, highlighting his high-level wrestling, power, and the fact that Muin Gafurov was taken down three times by Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Nakamura's wrestling advantage will be decisive and that the -400 price is justified, unlike other favorites on the card.

"Rena Nakamura is the very confident pick he absolutely gets this done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Rinya Nakamura confidently, viewing him as a top prospect. He highlights Nakamura's Olympic-level wrestling, fluid transitions, and improving striking. Cody notes that Gafurov has poor takedown defense and tends to gas, as seen against John Castaneda. Nakamura's wrestling and cardio should be too much. Cody expects Nakamura to take Gafurov down repeatedly and control the fight, possibly earning a finish. Nakamura is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Mentions submission prop at +575 as a possibility, but not a strong play.
"renho is at the top I I would put Rena right at the top which you most definitely can if you just want to be a little conservative then that's the move"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Nakamura, citing his physicality, strong grappling, and good hands. He notes that Gafurov is well-rounded but lacks athleticism and can be out-hustled. Daniel expects a competitive decision but thinks Nakamura grinds out the win. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says it's a favor to pass situation. He expects Nakamura to grind out a decision.
"I'm gonna take the big favorite here but I do think it could be a competitive decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host sees Nakamura as the future of the division, praising his wrestling, chain wrestling, and knockout power. He expects Nakamura to use a combination of those traits to win a decision over Gafurov.

"I think Nakamura is the future of this Division and his wrestling obviously allows him to stay safe in most positions he chain wrestles very well he knows when to implement it and he has huge knockout power I expect him to use a combination of those traits to go …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nakamura. He notes that Gafurov has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Nakamura's wrestling pedigree is elite. Paul believes Nakamura will find takedowns early and often, banking control time. He also mentions that a submission is possible but not guaranteed. Nakamura is a solid parlay piece for Paul.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I like I like Rena as well with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura but expresses hesitation. He worries about Nakamura's wrestling-heavy style that may not translate to finishes in MMA, similar to Raul Rosas Jr. However, he notes that Muin Gafurov is 'fat and terrible' and that Nakamura has dangerous stand-up with pop on his punches. He also likes that Nakamura had time off to fix issues and expects him to come in good form.

"I'm going to go over R Nakamura I do worry that we are going to see a bit of a more Asian version of a Ral rosis Jr fraud check"