UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jiří Procházka
5.69 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
5.6 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.51 TD Avg
60.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jamahal Hill
6.19 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.03 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jiří Procházka - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
KO R1 3:45 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 1 27 of 42 64% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 1 27 of 42 64% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 14 of 20 70% 6 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 8 14 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 27 of 42 64% 21 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 14 of 20 70% 6 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 8 14 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 27 of 42 64% 21 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka, believing he will close the distance and make the fight ugly. He acknowledges Carlos Ulberg's technical striking and range management but doubts his power to knock out Procházka, citing Ulberg's KO victims as low-level. He thinks Procházka wins if he gets in the pocket and notes the odds are interesting.

"Jiří Procházka's going to be the pick. Minus 135, these odds are very, very interesting here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady expects Procházka to be patient in the first round, then turn up the pressure in the second and third rounds, breaking Ulberg similar to how Kennedy Nzechukwu broke him. He notes Procházka's durability and power, but acknowledges his poor striking defense and the risk of being knocked out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Procházka.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Jiří Procházka. He could get knocked out here, Jiří. I always talk about the striking defense... give me Jiří Procházka to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody leans towards Ulberg's technical striking and believes he can intercept Procházka early. He thinks Ulberg's tight style and jab will exploit Procházka's openings, but acknowledges it's a close fight.

"I think I'm edging to more towards Alberg... I just feel like Carlos Berg maybe intercepts him or within the first three rounds and puts him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka despite some concerns about his recent tendency to overthink and hesitate early in fights. He notes that Procházka has a clear striking plan and is a devastating finisher, while Ulberg's style relies on speed and clean single shots but lacks maintenance work and pressure. Connor believes Ulberg hasn't proven he can handle this level of pressure and that Procházka will eventually force exchanges and land fight-ending blows. He acknowledges Ulberg's speed and power but thinks Procházka's durability and finishing ability will prevail.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110. Connor thinks Procházka should be a favorite.
"I got to pick Prashazka here. But, you know, it's a great test for Olberg..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Ulberg because he believes Ulberg's precision striking and counter-fighting style will exploit Jiri's reckless aggression. He notes that Ulberg's jab and calf kicks can keep Jiri at range, and that Jiri's unorthodox style leaves openings for Ulberg's left hook. He also mentions that Ulberg has paid his dues and is ready for the title.

"I like Ulberg here. I think Ulberg's basics are significantly better than Jiri's, but I'm not sure about his cardio. So I think it'll balance out a little bit, but I like Ulberg to walk out of there with a …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters have strong cases. He notes that both scenarios start with Ulberg lighting up Procházka, but he ultimately picks the underdog Ulberg to win by knockout, citing his left hook and calf kicks.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Carlos Goldberg to come out here, chop down the calf of the beloved Yuri Prohaska, and eventually find a home for that left hook, get a knockout, and take that belt home to New …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans towards Procházka because of his proven toughness, durability, and kill-or-be-killed style, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Ulberg is the more technical striker, but Procházka's heart and ability to turn up the pressure when losing are major factors. He believes Ulberg may not have the same dog in him and could be overwhelmed by Procházka's relentless pressure.

Thinks fight likely ends inside the distance but odds are unplayable.
"I lean heavily towards Jairzinho here because I don't know if Overeem's got that dog in him, and that's often the difference in big, high-profile title fights such as this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James is unsure who will win the fight, leaning towards Jiří Procházka after the line moved, but he doesn't commit to a winner. Instead, he focuses on prop bets, covering both fighters in different rounds.

Carlos Ulberg win in round 1 (+700), round 2 (+900); Jiří Procházka win in round 3 (+1000), round 4 (+1300), round 5 (+1600)
"I was leaning Albazi earlier in the week, he was plus 120. Now at minus 110, I'm leaning Jiří. So that just tells me that I don't know and James, you should probably stay away unless you want to get …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg as a slight underdog, reasoning that Ulberg will have his chance to win early and that Procházka has to survive the early storm. He acknowledges Procházka's advantages in experience and cardio but leans Ulberg because of the underdog value and early finishing potential.

Fight to end inside the distance; prop bets on Ulberg by KO in rounds 1-2 and Procházka by KO in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Carlos Allberg. And there's a few reasons. The first reason is because he's an underdog, right? So I feel like this close this fight is close to 50/50, but Carlos is the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka's pressure and cardio are key in a five-round fight. He can absorb early shots and break opponents in later rounds. Ulberg is a good technical striker but may fade under Procházka's relentless pressure. Procházka's chin has held up against top competition, and Ulberg is not the same level of knockout threat as Pereira. Expect Procházka to finish in rounds 3 or 4.

Procházka wins in rounds 3 or 4
"I think Prohaska gets the finish in rounds three or round four."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul believes Procházka's chaotic style and cardio will allow him to survive early and finish late. He notes Procházka has never gone to decision in the UFC and expects a finish, possibly in later rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Yuri and say that Yuri survives early and probably gets a finish late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka over Carlos Ulberg, despite initially favoring Ulberg. He believes Procházka has improved his striking defense and head movement, and that Ulberg may break if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Procházka's baby is due the day after, and envisions a storybook win. He predicts Procházka will take over from the second half of round two onwards and win by TKO or decision.

"I'm going to go with Jiří Procházka, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka but expresses less faith than Connor, noting that Ulberg's style could flummox Procházka if he is too committed to his own approach. He points out that Procházka looked bad for two rounds against Khalil Rountree before turning it on, and that Ulberg's speed and clean punching could hurt Procházka. However, Zane believes Procházka will eventually go for it and that his finishing ability is the difference. He also notes that light heavyweight is a division where anyone can get knocked out, but Procházka's track record of finishes gives him the edge.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110.
"I don't have as much faith in the area as I as I once did. I think there's a possibility that Olberg is so committed to his style that Yuri may be a little flummoxed."
KO R3 3:04 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 1 71 of 138 51% 71 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 66 of 158 41% 66 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 47 of 71 66% 47 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 71 of 138 51% 44 of 100 16 of 25 11 of 13 61 of 127 10 of 11 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 66 of 158 41% 44 of 127 12 of 17 10 of 14 62 of 151 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 12 of 24 50% 7 of 17 1 of 2 4 of 5 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 32 46% 9 of 22 4 of 6 2 of 4 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 12 of 43 27% 7 of 34 1 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 24 of 65 36% 10 of 47 7 of 9 7 of 9 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 47 of 71 66% 30 of 49 14 of 19 3 of 3 37 of 60 10 of 11 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 27 of 61 44% 25 of 58 1 of 2 1 of 1 23 of 54 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka but is not confident, as he thinks the odds are too wide. He believes Procházka's relentless forward pressure and threat of takedowns will be key against Khalil Rountree, who struggles when moving backwards. However, he notes Procházka gets hit a lot and has been knocked out twice recently, while Rountree has power and durability. He calls it a very close fight.

"I'm going to pick Yuri here because I think that relentless crazy person forward pressure is going to be tricky for Khalil who does not fight as well backing up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady acknowledges Procházka's poor striking defense but believes he is built differently and will break Rountree as the fight goes on. He notes that Procházka often switches to an aggressive style in the second round, as seen in the Rakic fight. He predicts Procházka wins by second-round knockout.

Jiří Procházka by second round knockout.
"I like Yuri Bhashka to win this fight. I think he's going to break Khalil as the fight goes on. I'm going to take Gary Bhashka by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, emphasizing that Rountree's technical improvements have not overcome his mental fragility. He notes that Procházka's relentless pressure and willingness to exchange will force Rountree into defensive mode, and that Procházka's athleticism and relaxed style give him an edge. Connor also acknowledges the possibility of Rountree landing a knockout or leg kicks, but believes Procházka's overall dynamics favor him.

"I got to just go with Proshaska here in terms of the general overall dynamics."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The host expects a violent matchup, but Rountree's improvements will help him find Procházka's chin and his power will put Procházka away by knockout.

"I believe this will be a very violent matchup, but the improvements in Rountree's game, I think, will help him find the chin of Procházka. And I think Rountree has the type of power to put Procházka away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka, believing his chaos and durability will overwhelm Khalil Rountree. He notes Rountree's lack of one-punch KO power and tendency to fade under pressure. He predicts a third-round TKO.

third-round TKO
"I'm going to say that Jiri Prochazka gets a third round TKO win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka because he believes Rountree's mentality is his biggest weakness, as seen in the Jamal Hill fight where Rountree fought with fear despite having a technical advantage. Zane argues that Procházka's fearless, chaotic pressure will overwhelm Rountree, who tends to tense up and fight with a panic response. He also notes that Procházka is a better athlete, faster, and more dynamic, and that Rountree's leg kicks could be a threat but are unlikely to stop Procházka's forward pressure.

"I think that's just going to make him terrified of fighting Yuri Prashaska. Just terrified."
WIN vs Jamahal Hill
TKO (punches) R3 3:01 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 2 97 of 165 58% 101 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Jamahal Hill 0 81 of 177 45% 84 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 1 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 23 of 64 35% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 22 of 49 44% 22 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamahal Hill 0 38 of 74 51% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 43 of 58 74% 47 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jamahal Hill 0 20 of 39 51% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 97 of 165 58% 73 of 132 19 of 23 5 of 10 71 of 129 10 of 13 16 of 23
Jamahal Hill 81 of 177 45% 55 of 145 24 of 29 2 of 3 68 of 158 13 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 32 of 58 55% 27 of 51 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 1
Jamahal Hill 23 of 64 35% 17 of 56 5 of 6 1 of 2 21 of 59 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 22 of 49 44% 12 of 33 9 of 12 1 of 4 22 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamahal Hill 38 of 74 51% 25 of 59 12 of 14 1 of 1 34 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 43 of 58 74% 34 of 48 7 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 29 6 of 7 16 of 22
Jamahal Hill 20 of 39 51% 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.

"I think Yuri pahaska wins I've completely 180 flipped here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.

Mentions that this is a 205-pound striking match and buyer beware, but no specific prop.
"I like Jamal Hill I think this is definitely a value play this week minus 130 around that range"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.

Odds: Hill opened +122, now -125; Procházka opened -136, now +112. Connor thinks Procházka should be the favorite.
"Yuri is gonna win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.

Daniel took Hill at +100 earlier and says the line should be closer to -150. He mentions that both fighters have knockout power but Hill's volume is key.
"I actually took Hill here at plus 100 um I thought that you know if I'm the book Nick I'm charging you chalk on both sides"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.

"my prediction is Jamal Hill via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.

finishes within 10 minutes
"I am going to have to lean with the power striking and pressure of prasa here if his durability holds up similar to what I said about darush in the previous fight he should be able to pressure Hill walk …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -270 as a parlay piece. Also mentions under 1.5 rounds at +130 as a possibility.
"my preferred way like as a parlay piece is like taking like the minus 270 fight doesn't go to decision and uh and using that as a parlay piece this week"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"You got to take your knee here. Yuri beats Jamal Hill."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (head kick and punches) R2 0:13 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 2 38 of 50 76% 49 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jiří Procházka 0 7 of 25 28% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 1 27 of 37 72% 38 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jiří Procházka 0 7 of 25 28% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
2 Alex Pereira 1 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jiří Procházka 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 38 of 50 76% 21 of 32 8 of 9 9 of 9 21 of 31 7 of 7 10 of 12
Jiří Procházka 7 of 25 28% 4 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 27 of 37 72% 10 of 19 8 of 9 9 of 9 20 of 30 7 of 7 0 of 0
Jiří Procházka 7 of 25 28% 4 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 12
Jiří Procházka 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira to win again, citing his cleaner striking and the leg kick issue that Procházka couldn't solve in the first fight. He notes that Procházka's karate stance leaves his lead leg exposed, and Pereira's heavy leg kicks will be a problem. Cody also mentions that Pereira has improved his takedown defense since the first fight, and that Procházka's tendency to brawl plays into Pereira's hands. He acknowledges that Procházka is a madman who never stops coming, but believes Pereira's refined skills will prevail.

"Pereira for me... it's getting closer to a pick 'em because it's just going to be a straight-up fire fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, stating that Procházka's best path is creating chaos, but Pereira has the ability to navigate chaos and not engage with it while still taking advantage. He notes that Pereira is a more controlled and technical striker than Procházka, and he took care of him in the first fight. Vreeland believes Pereira will be almost impossible to beat unless someone comes with a heavy wrestling plan or is a striking savant like Izzy.

"I think Yuri prashka is probably worse nightmare as Alex paa... he has the ability to navigate the chaos and make it not chaotic for him himself... I think he's going to continue to beat guys."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel views the fight as a 50/50 coin flip, but likes the plus money on Procházka. He believes Procházka can create his 'perfect storm' and return the favor after being stopped early in the first fight. He notes that Procházka was not truly out and that the rematch is justified. He expects someone to hit the deck and hopes Procházka can avoid accumulated damage and the left hook.

"I took Yuri here plus 125... I'm going with Yuri because I think it should be minus 110 a piece... you give me a plus 125 I'm gonna go Yuri here."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, stating he usually takes the winner of the first fight in a rematch. He notes that both fighters are dangerous on the feet, but Pereira is a more controlled version of Procházka and way more technical. Fox believes Pereira can keep himself safer while still being dangerous, and he expects Pereira to do the same as the first fight.

"Give me Bea in this one... I usually almost always take the winner of the first to win the rematch... P just a more controll version of prashka definitely way more technical."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The host acknowledges this is a very close fight, calling it a coin flip. He gives a slight edge to Pereira because he is the technically better striker, citing the calf kick and check left hook. However, he notes Procházka is just as capable of knocking Pereira out and that the underdog line at +130 is tempting. He ultimately leans Pereira by knockout but says he will likely not bet the fight, possibly taking the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds considered
"I ever so slightly lean with the fighter that is technically the better Striker and that's P that calf kick that check left hook... I'm going to take Pera Pera win by knockout and retain his title once again."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, emphasizing that he already beat Procházka once and is the cleaner striker. He notes that Procházka's leg kicks were a major issue in the first fight and that Pereira's left hook is deadly. Paul also points out that Procházka's takedown in the first fight was a result of Pereira grabbing a guillotine, a mistake he likely won't repeat. He expects a wild brawl but believes Pereira will finish Procházka again, possibly by knockout.

"I'm picking Pereira but there's no doubt about it that it's not going to come easy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The Guru picks Jiří Procházka to defeat Alex Pereira in the rematch. He notes that in the first fight, Pereira had little success outside of low kicks, and Procházka was coming off a long layoff and shoulder injury. He believes Procházka's active fighting style and recent war with Rakic will benefit him, while Pereira's last fight was an easy win over Jamahal Hill. He predicts Procházka will pressure Pereira and finish him by TKO in round three.

TKO in round three
"I'm gonna go with Yuri praska over Alex Pereira... I think he tko's Alex Pereira in round three"
TKO (punches) R2 3:17 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 69 of 118 58% 69 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Aleksandar Rakić 0 58 of 109 53% 58 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aleksandar Rakić 0 36 of 69 52% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 53 of 80 66% 53 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Aleksandar Rakić 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 69 of 118 58% 56 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 8 45 of 87 7 of 7 17 of 24
Aleksandar Rakić 58 of 109 53% 34 of 77 1 of 2 23 of 30 56 of 107 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 16 of 38 42% 10 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 4 15 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 36 of 69 52% 19 of 45 0 of 1 17 of 23 35 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 53 of 80 66% 46 of 72 3 of 4 4 of 4 30 of 50 6 of 6 17 of 24
Aleksandar Rakić 22 of 40 55% 15 of 32 1 of 1 6 of 7 21 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiri Prochazka as the underdog, citing his relentless pressure and chaos. He notes Rakic is the more technical striker but has been out for two years and doesn't like brawls. He likes the +110 odds as juicy but may not bet due to conservatism.

Odds comment: +110 is juicy
"plus 110 Jerry is the underdog those odds seem juicy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is confused why Rakić is a slight favorite. He lists many red flags for Rakić: a near 2-year layoff, coming off a leg injury, low volume, and unimpressive performances even before the injury. In contrast, Procházka is a former champion with dynamic striking, power, and a samurai mentality. Cody notes Procházka has a fifth-round submission win over Glover Teixeira and can wrestle if needed. He believes Procházka's pressure and power will overwhelm Rakić, who tends to avoid fighting. Cody picks Procházka as the underdog.

"I'm actually confused on this one I don't know why it's even money... got to go with yri."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka because his willingness to create chaos and take risks is valuable at light heavyweight. He contrasts Procházka's creative, reckless style with Rakić's neurotically technical, restrained approach. Connor argues that Procházka's ability to scramble and make fights uncontrollable will overcome Rakić's grinding, as Rakić has not faced someone with Procházka's level of unpredictability.

Odds: Procházka opened -100, now -103; Rakić opened -128, now -107. Connor notes the odds are dead even.
"I am going to pick Jiri Prashaska because I think despite the immense risk inherent to his game, that is a very valuable thing to have in MMA in general at light heavyweight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Vreeland picks Jiří Procházka as a slight underdog, citing his chaotic, unpredictable style and ability to force opponents into brawls. He acknowledges Rakić's athleticism and leg kicks but believes Procházka's offensive juggernaut approach and durability will lead to a finish. Vreeland notes that Procházka has been knocked out but expects him to make it wild and catch Rakić.

"I'm gonna go with the former champ Jiří Procházka"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says he is excited to see how Jiří Procházka bounces back from his loss. He does not provide a prediction.

"Jiří versus Rakić I'm excited to see how Jiří bounces back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić will drag the fight to the ground where he can have success from top position. Procházka has struggled with opponents on top. Rakić will chain wrestling attempts and keep Procházka on his back, grinding out a decision win.

decision
"I think we'll see rage utilize that wrestling chain those wrestling attempts and then eventually keep rasa muzzled on his back and grind this fight out over 15 minutes winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Procházka. He notes that if it turns into an absolute fight, Procházka's pace and volume will be too much for Rakić, as seen in Procházka's fight with Dominick Reyes where he landed 77 significant strikes before a early third-round finish. Paul acknowledges both fighters have red flags (layoffs, injuries), but Rakić has been on the shelf longer and has bigger question marks. He emphasizes Procházka's samurai mentality and believes he will bring the fight to Rakić.

"I'm with I'm on Yuri as well... if it turns into an absolute fight you want Yuri."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić to defeat Jiří Procházka by targeting his lead leg with low kicks. He notes Procházka's weakness against leg kicks and that Rakić is comfortable backpedaling. He also mentions Rakić may mix in takedowns and predicts a finish or decision.

"Alexander rakic is going to chew up that lead leg of Yuri prasa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Zane picks Rakić despite hating his fighting style. He believes Rakić will land leg kicks, take Procházka down, and grind out a win over three rounds. He notes Procházka's wildness could turn the fight, but Rakić's durability and grinding approach should prevail. Zane is hedging because he wants Procházka to win but feels Rakić is the safer bet.

Odds: Rakić opened -128, now -107; Procházka opened -100, now -103. Zane mentions the fight is dead even in odds.
"My feel bad vibe is that I'm going to take Alexander Rocketch. I think he's going to land a lot of leg kicks. I think Proshaska is going to start lunging in and getting really aggressive. And Rocketch is going …"
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (elbows) R2 4:08 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 30 of 53 56% 44 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:45
Jiří Procházka 1 38 of 61 62% 49 of 72 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 11 of 19 57% 23 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:17
Jiří Procházka 0 11 of 20 55% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Alex Pereira 0 19 of 34 55% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Jiří Procházka 1 27 of 41 65% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 30 of 53 56% 18 of 37 7 of 10 5 of 6 26 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2
Jiří Procházka 38 of 61 62% 21 of 38 5 of 8 12 of 15 22 of 43 4 of 4 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 11 of 19 57% 6 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jiří Procházka 11 of 20 55% 4 of 9 1 of 3 6 of 8 8 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 19 of 34 55% 12 of 24 5 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jiří Procházka 27 of 41 65% 17 of 29 4 of 5 6 of 7 14 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 14
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-155), Prochazka (+130)

Round 1
Stepping in to save the day once more—these two men also headlined UFC 300 when everything was up in the air—the shoe is now on the other foot. While Prochazka (30-4-1, 4-1 UFC) was the champion nearly eight months ago, Pereira (10-2, 7-1 UFC) wrested it from him viciously with a right hook, a number of elbows and a helpful stoppage from typically excellent referee Marc Goddard. This time, Pereira is the second of the two announced, and violence is once more a virtual guarantee. Having performed 34 knockouts in their 40 combined victories, another one could be right around the corner. The staredown before the fight begins is just as sensational as the first time they fought if not better, as they do not break gaze from one another for a second. Referee Herb Dean will take charge in the main attraction, and he brings the intense power hitters together so they can touch gloves before the cage door seals behind them. It’s on with the chaos. Both men flirt with taking the middle of the cage first, but it is Pereira who ultimately claims it initially as he pitches out a low kick. A front kick from “Poatan” pushes into the belly, and Prochazka switches stances back and forth. Pereira connects with a heavy low kick, and Prochazka rushes at him and is jabbed away. Prochazka goes after his own leg kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one despite the stance switch. Pereira prods out with another push kick, and Prochazka tries to reach with a left hand and he absorbs one coming back. Pereira intercepts him with a dagger of a jab, and he is able to easily block a high kick. Prochazka races at him launching punches, and he gets countered and nods at the Brazilian. Pereira drives home a blistering leg kick, and Prochazka jabs the body and absorbs another kick on the other side. Pereira whips a kick to the ribs, and Prochazka does not answer. Instead, “BJP” bounces down a few times, as if to fake a level change, but Pereira is not buying it. Prochazka closes the distance and ends up tying the champion up, and Pereira answers him with a stern knee to the midsection. Prochazka looks to trip Pereira up, isolating the left leg of his foe, but the Brazilian’s defense is currently ironclad. They trade knees until Pereira tosses him aside, and he looses a head kick that brushes Prochazka’s shoulder. Pereira connects with a right hook, and he easily parries a high kick that swats his way. Power is completely in the favor of the champion so far, and Prochazka rushes at the champion right before the bell and is sat down by blazing left hook. When Prochazka hits his back, the round ends, and he wobbles back to his corner as it was not a stoppage.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Pereira

Round 2
The second round begins with Pereira marching out of his corner, a man on a mission. “Poatan” unleashes a hellacious high kick that smashes into Prochazka’s dome and sets him crashing to the canvas. Dean rushes in but pulls back before intervening, and Prochazka sits up and turns to his side as Pereira charges him and blasts him with hammerfists. Knowing his work here is about to be done, Pereira finishes the job with a handful of ferocious fists to the side of the head. Dean steps in between them to call a halt to the main event, and if there was any question regarding the nature of the stoppage, Prochazka is unable to get back to his feet without assistance. Prochazka falls into the arms of Dean, as he should not have stood back up yet and is completely short-circuited. Pereira walks off, adjusting his foot, and he pops a toe back into socket or cranks it as it is broken or re-broken, likely from the punctuating head kick. Prochazka is brought down to the stool to recover, and when he recovers, he is crestfallen when learning the result. Once more, the two-division champion makes a statement, ending any debate regarding his series with Prochazka. In his post-fight interview, “Poatan” is asked about his future, which could potentially include a move to heavyweight to challenge for another belt. If the UFC does that, we will be here for that. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jiri Prochazka R2 0:13 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Pereira after flipping from Procházka. He acknowledges Procházka's ability to win ugly fights but believes Pereira's world-class kickboxing and left hook will be too much for the hittable Procházka. He falls into the 'easy narrative' but thinks it's correct.

"I am going to go with Alice B here he is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by first-round knockout. He criticizes Procházka's non-existent striking defense, noting he blocks punches with his face and has been rocked by lesser hitters. He believes Pereira's left hook will be too much for Procházka to handle. Brady acknowledges Procházka's toughness but thinks Pereira's power is a different level.

Pereira by first-round knockout
"I like Alex Pereira here... I'm going to take Alex Pereira to win this fight and win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, citing Procházka's long layoff and shoulder surgery as major concerns. He notes Procházka is a defensive liability who gets hit often, while Pereira is more polished and has been improving under Glover Teixeira. He believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and second fight at 205 will be key, though he acknowledges Procházka's power and volume could cause problems.

"I got a guy that I now still think is a defensive liability... Pereira meanwhile... more polished more refined kickboxer"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James passes on this fight entirely, calling it a massive pass due to extreme volatility. He notes both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, and Procházka brings unorthodox strikes that Pereira hasn't faced. He leans slightly toward Pereira based on technical striking but admits he doesn't know and considers it 50/50. He mentions Procházka may have better recovery and durability.

No bet; considers over 1.5 but doesn't commit.
"Big pass for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Pereira's disciplined technical striking will be the difference against the wild and reckless Procházka. He will stuff takedowns and keep the fight on the feet. Procházka's power is a concern but Pereira's check left hook is nasty. Expects Pereira to open up a knockout victory and become the light heavyweight champion.

knockout victory
"look for the disciplined technical striking approach for Pera to open up a knockout victory over Yuri prasa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Pereira's first move up to 205 was tough but now he's had time to fill out his frame. He thinks Pereira's grappling under Glover is improving and that the takedown threat from Procházka is minimal. He sees Pereira's precision striking as the difference, eventually clipping Procházka.

"I'm on board with you I feel like eventually he's going to get clipped from a much more precise type of strike so uh it's Pereira for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, citing his takedown defense and momentum. He notes that Procházka drops his right hand when striking, leaving him open to Pereira's left hook. He also mentions that Procházka has been wobbled in every fight and has been out for a year and a half with injury. He predicts Pereira will TKO Procházka in round one or two.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I reckon Pereira is going to TKO Yi in round two or one"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R5 4:32 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 111 of 161 68% 159 of 212 5 of 17 29% 1 2 9:47
Glover Teixeira 0 120 of 205 58% 157 of 245 0 of 0 --- 1 4 4:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 27 of 36 75% 48 of 58 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:49
Glover Teixeira 0 14 of 25 56% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:22
2 Jiří Procházka 0 27 of 42 64% 32 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:35
Glover Teixeira 0 36 of 66 54% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 22 54% 15 of 26 1 of 6 16% 0 1 1:17
Glover Teixeira 0 43 of 59 72% 55 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
4 Jiří Procházka 0 24 of 29 82% 29 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:33
Glover Teixeira 0 21 of 39 53% 29 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:09
5 Jiří Procházka 0 21 of 32 65% 35 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
Glover Teixeira 0 6 of 16 37% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 111 of 161 68% 98 of 145 12 of 15 1 of 1 45 of 86 6 of 7 60 of 68
Glover Teixeira 120 of 205 58% 106 of 190 12 of 13 2 of 2 76 of 142 8 of 11 36 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 27 of 36 75% 25 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 1 of 1 20 of 22
Glover Teixeira 14 of 25 56% 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 9 of 14
2 Jiří Procházka 27 of 42 64% 25 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 22 0 of 0 17 of 20
Glover Teixeira 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0 32 of 59 3 of 5 1 of 2
3 Jiří Procházka 12 of 22 54% 10 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 11 4 of 5 6 of 6
Glover Teixeira 43 of 59 72% 34 of 50 8 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 39 5 of 6 12 of 14
4 Jiří Procházka 24 of 29 82% 17 of 22 7 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 13 1 of 1 13 of 15
Glover Teixeira 21 of 39 53% 19 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 22
5 Jiří Procházka 21 of 32 65% 21 of 30 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 27 0 of 0 4 of 5
Glover Teixeira 6 of 16 37% 5 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Angelo picks Glover, admitting bias but also providing objective reasoning. He notes Glover has multiple paths to victory (KO, submission, decision) while Jiri only has KO. He highlights Glover's takedown ability and Jiri's poor takedown defense. He believes Glover's chin will hold up and he can weather Jiri's early storm.

money line bet at plus 170
"i've got a money line bet on glover at plus 170. if you can't bet on your fights who the hell you gonna bet on but i genuinely bias aside think that glover can win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady picks Jiří Procházka to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Procházka has a significant advantage in striking power and reach, while Teixeira's chin is questionable at 42 years old. Although Teixeira has a path to victory via takedowns and ground control, Brady believes Procházka's unorthodox style and power will be too much.

win by knockout in round 1
"I'm gonna say Jiří knocks out Glover Teixeira in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is torn on this fight. He acknowledges Glover's grappling and submission threat, but thinks Procházka's dynamic striking and youth will be too much. He notes Procházka's takedown defense is an unknown but expects improvements. He leans Procházka by KO, but plans to hedge with Glover if needed.

under 2.5 rounds considered safest; plans to hedge with Glover at plus money
"my head tells me here he's going to catch it way too fast way too long... but my heart's telling me gloria's gonna wade to the left... i'm torn"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka but is very hesitant. He acknowledges the value on Glover Teixeira at plus money and admits he has been wrong on Glover many times before. He worries about Procházka's defensive liabilities and small UFC sample size, but ultimately leans on Procházka's unique style, speed, and finishing ability. He also mentions jet lag favoring Procházka since the Czech Republic is closer to Singapore than the US.

Procházka by KO; fight doesn't go the distance (minus 500); Glover money line or inside distance or submission line has value
"my official pick is going to be Yuri prohaska to become the new champ it's just you guys got to understand I've been wrong on so many Glory Sheriff fights this guy keeps defying the odds I think the value …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka has dynamic striking and power, and Glover's head movement is poor. Glover's path is grappling, but Procházka's length and movement make it hard to take him down. Glover has been knocked out by rangy strikers before. I see Procházka winning by knockout, likely in the first two rounds. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds (-190), Procházka by KO (-150)
"I think that pro huska will eventually find that chin and put him out here i just can't bet myself i would rather take the under two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Paul leans Glover by submission, citing Glover's superior grappling and top control. He questions Procházka's ground game and believes Glover will get a takedown and submit him. He notes Glover's chin issues but thinks his experience and BJJ will prevail.

Glover by submission
"i'm going to lean on glover does get a takedown and i don't know enough about pro hotsky's ground game... glover by sub"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

The MMA Guru picks Glover Teixeira to win by first-round rear-naked choke. He believes Procházka has defensive flaws on the ground and gets hit often on the feet. He notes that many fighters have taken Procházka down, and Teixeira's grappling will be a major threat. He expects Procházka to be aggressive and switch stances, leaving openings for Teixeira's double-leg takedown. He mentions Teixeira's lack of damage in his last fight and championship experience as advantages. He admits he wants Procházka to win but thinks Teixeira has it.

first round rear-naked choke
"i'm going to go with a glover to share her first round remake of choke over yuri"
KO (spinning back elbow) R2 4:29 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 63 of 108 58% 68 of 114 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 1 77 of 136 56% 78 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 0 45 of 81 55% 45 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 24 of 42 57% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 32 of 55 58% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 63 of 108 58% 39 of 81 21 of 24 3 of 3 57 of 100 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 77 of 136 56% 61 of 119 16 of 17 0 of 0 70 of 122 1 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 39 of 66 59% 25 of 51 12 of 13 2 of 2 39 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 45 of 81 55% 36 of 71 9 of 10 0 of 0 44 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 24 of 42 57% 14 of 30 9 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 34 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 32 of 55 58% 25 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 43 0 of 0 6 of 12
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.

under 2.5 rounds, first round knockout
"i'm gonna take dominic reyes here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.

under 1.5 rounds (lean)
"i am going to go yeary in this spot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with uh the favorite here yuri prohaska to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.

Jiří Procházka by KO at +125; Over 1.5 rounds at -155; Fight won't start round 4 at -210; Fight won't start round 3 at -130
"I do like pro husks guy here i think he gets it done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.

under 2.5 rounds (preference)
"i'm gonna take yuri as well i'm leaning towards that under one and a half but honestly one i'd rather be under two and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.

second round TKO
"i'm going with yuri project man got the momentum tko second round over dominic reyes"
Jamahal Hill - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 69 of 172 40% 70 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 102 of 181 56% 102 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 17 of 30 56% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 15 of 33 45% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 25 24% 6 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jamahal Hill 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 37 of 57 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 69 of 172 40% 47 of 142 7 of 12 15 of 18 68 of 170 0 of 1 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 102 of 181 56% 30 of 91 42 of 54 30 of 36 102 of 181 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 14 of 30 46% 2 of 17 3 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 17 of 30 56% 2 of 13 7 of 8 8 of 9 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 15 of 33 45% 10 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 35 42% 3 of 19 5 of 7 7 of 9 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 6 of 25 24% 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 2 6 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 29 51% 7 of 17 2 of 5 6 of 7 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 18 of 30 60% 8 of 17 6 of 7 4 of 6 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jamahal Hill 26 of 56 46% 21 of 49 2 of 4 3 of 3 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 37 of 57 64% 10 of 25 22 of 27 5 of 5 37 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Angelo picks Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his durability and power. He notes that Rountree went toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira and showed he belongs. He thinks Jamahal Hill has good footwork but may slow down, and that Rountree has more upside. He expects a fun fight and thinks Rountree can win if he pressures.

Mentions upside for fantasy; expects a fun fight.
"I'm going to pick Khalil Roundtree. I'm probably going to put him in my lineup because I think the upside is on his side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill as a plus money underdog, but he is very hesitant due to Hill's recent performances after a gruesome injury. He notes that if Hill were the same fighter who beat Glover Teixeira, he would be max betting him, but the Hill who fought Pereira and Prochazka looked bad. Brady worries about Hill's durability and whether the injury took something out of him. He ultimately picks Hill but says he's not sure if he wants to put money on him, predicting a late finish or decision.

plus money underdog, not sure if I want to put my money on him
"I'm going to go Jamal Hill. I'm going to take the dog here to get it done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Connor picks Rountree, emphasizing that Rountree is a much more consistent technician while Hill is a bad technician with poor footwork and defense, leaving him open to be picked apart. He notes that Hill's durability against Prochazka may not hold against a cleaner puncher like Rountree, and that Rountree's roteness gives him consistency similar to Pereira. He believes if Rountree can't finish early, Hill's pressure could turn the fight, but he still favors Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The host notes Rountree opened around -160 but has moved to -120 as money came in on Hill, and he agrees with that movement. He thinks this is a great stylistic matchup for Hill to batter Rountree from distance, counter strike effectively, and pull away in deep water, predicting a round three or four KO finish.

round 3 or 4 KO finish
"I think this is a great stylistic match up for Hill to batter round tree from distance, counter strike effectively and then start pulling away in deep water which is where I expect Jamal Hill to come through with either …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr., despite acknowledging Jamahal Hill's underrated skills. He believes Rountree's low kicks will be decisive, and notes Hill's predictable movement. He also cites Rountree's longer recovery time since his loss to Pereira compared to Hill's recent brutal loss to Prochazka. He predicts a leg kick TKO in round 2 or 3.

Rountree wins by TKO (leg kicks) in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Khil Roundree Jr. I think the low kicks are going to be really good for him. I think we're going to see a rare leg kick TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Zane picks Rountree based on the stark technical advantage he sees in 30 seconds of footage: Rountree is much cleaner as a striker with better footwork, power, speed, and a more varied arsenal. However, he acknowledges Hill's comfort in messiness and ability to up the intensity over five rounds, drawing a parallel to Diaz vs Edwards. He is hesitant because Hill's durability and scrapping mentality could turn the fight late, but he ultimately sticks with Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
TKO (punches) R3 3:01 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 2 97 of 165 58% 101 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Jamahal Hill 0 81 of 177 45% 84 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 1 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 23 of 64 35% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 22 of 49 44% 22 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamahal Hill 0 38 of 74 51% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 43 of 58 74% 47 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jamahal Hill 0 20 of 39 51% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 97 of 165 58% 73 of 132 19 of 23 5 of 10 71 of 129 10 of 13 16 of 23
Jamahal Hill 81 of 177 45% 55 of 145 24 of 29 2 of 3 68 of 158 13 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 32 of 58 55% 27 of 51 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 1
Jamahal Hill 23 of 64 35% 17 of 56 5 of 6 1 of 2 21 of 59 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 22 of 49 44% 12 of 33 9 of 12 1 of 4 22 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamahal Hill 38 of 74 51% 25 of 59 12 of 14 1 of 1 34 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 43 of 58 74% 34 of 48 7 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 29 6 of 7 16 of 22
Jamahal Hill 20 of 39 51% 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.

"I think Yuri pahaska wins I've completely 180 flipped here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.

Mentions that this is a 205-pound striking match and buyer beware, but no specific prop.
"I like Jamal Hill I think this is definitely a value play this week minus 130 around that range"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.

Odds: Hill opened +122, now -125; Procházka opened -136, now +112. Connor thinks Procházka should be the favorite.
"Yuri is gonna win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.

Daniel took Hill at +100 earlier and says the line should be closer to -150. He mentions that both fighters have knockout power but Hill's volume is key.
"I actually took Hill here at plus 100 um I thought that you know if I'm the book Nick I'm charging you chalk on both sides"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.

"my prediction is Jamal Hill via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.

finishes within 10 minutes
"I am going to have to lean with the power striking and pressure of prasa here if his durability holds up similar to what I said about darush in the previous fight he should be able to pressure Hill walk …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -270 as a parlay piece. Also mentions under 1.5 rounds at +130 as a possibility.
"my preferred way like as a parlay piece is like taking like the minus 270 fight doesn't go to decision and uh and using that as a parlay piece this week"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"You got to take your knee here. Yuri beats Jamal Hill."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
KO (punches) R1 3:14 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 1 24 of 30 80% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 1 24 of 30 80% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 24 of 30 80% 12 of 15 6 of 6 6 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 11 of 14
Jamahal Hill 12 of 22 54% 1 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 9 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 24 of 30 80% 12 of 15 6 of 6 6 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 11 of 14
Jamahal Hill 12 of 22 54% 1 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 9 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-130), Hill (+110)

Round 1
It may not have the blockbuster name like a Conor McGregor or Brock Lesnar type, but the headliner of UFC 300 is a legit matchup that promises action from start to finish. Pereira (9-2, 6-1 UFC) aims to make the first defense of his light heavyweight throne—a two-division champ at that—against a man in Hill (12-1, 1 NC; 6-1, 1 NC UFC) that never his belt in the cage. The rightful champion should emerge from this one, and they will have 25 minutes to punch one another’s lights out. Referee Herb Dean will try to stay away from any errant blows, and he brings them together to bump fists before the last fight of this storied event kicks off. It’s on with the show. Pereira whips a leg kick out to test the water, and Hill responds in kind. Pereira scores another, and Hill kicks him on the inside of the front leg. Pereira checks a low kick, and he skims one off the shin. Hill reaches out with a left hand, and Pereira measures a right. Pereira scores a loud body kick, and Hill darts in to land a solid right hand over the top. Hill turns his hips into low kicks from both sides, and Pereira chops back. Hill grabs Pereira’s wrist while they hand-fight with one another, and Hill prods out a front kick. Pereira gets in a hefty calf kick, and he jabs the body. Hill goes high with his shin, and Pereira blocks it in time. Hill digs a kick to the ribs, and he lances out two left hands. Pereira digs a right to the midsection, and he absorbs kicks on each side of his leg as he tries to check them all. Hill wraps a kick up to the body, and it bounces off the cop. Pereira waves Dean off and unloads a left hand that sends Hill crashing to the mat. Pereira smashes his fallen foe with otherworldly power, and he finishes the job with thunderous hammerfists. Hill completely goes out, and Dean leaps between them when recognizing “Sweet Dreams” is off in dreamland. “Poatan” stands back and motions to his handiwork, pointing at the unconscious Hill. Hill manages to sit up and come to, and he appears to ask Dean what happened as he stands up confused. Pereira’s coach, Glover Teixeira, awards the defending champion with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as they celebrate and embrace. Even the stoic Pereira cracks a smile. Ten wins into his MMA career, and Pereira has now won and lost the middleweight belt, and claimed and defended the light heavyweight throne. Pereira declares that he wishes to keep defending this belt, and he also expresses interest in competing at heavyweight—possibly in Rio de Janeiro in a few weeks. When taking photos with his team, Pereira dances a little and lets fly some of his more fun side. With that crushing knockout in the books, UFC 300 has reached its conclusion, and what an event it was. Several year-end awards will likely go to this memorable fight card, and if not, something truly spectacular will need to happen in the next eight months. If and when that happens, we will be there for it. We hope are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jamahal Hill R1 3:14 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira, citing his power and physicality. He notes Hill may be the better striker and Pereira gets hit a lot, but Hill's layoff and injury recovery are concerns. He mentions Hill looked out of shape recently and may not be fully prepared. He acknowledges it wouldn't surprise him if Hill wins.

"I think Alex Bea wins this fight but it would not surprise me if Jamal Hill landed those onws and we just watched Alex get pieced up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody acknowledges this is a flip-flop fight between Hill's volume and Pereira's power. He leans Pereira because he trusts Pereira's preparation and shape, while Hill is coming off a long layoff with an Achilles injury and doesn't appear to be in peak condition. Cody notes Hill has never been knocked down and has a cast iron chin, but Pereira's left hook is a constant threat. He also mentions Hill has zero takedowns in the UFC and Glover Teixeira is in Pereira's corner, providing familiarity. Ultimately, he goes with the power over volume, but admits it could go either way.

"I think I'm leaning Pereira because I want the guy that I know is going to come and put his best foot forward where Hill he's going to fight his hard out but if he's not at 100% if I …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Vreeland picks Jamahal Hill to win by knockout, citing Hill's superior power and speed, his ability to switch stances to negate Pereira's calf kicks, and his proven durability. He notes that Pereira gets hit often and has been knocked out before, while Hill has never been rocked on the feet. Vreeland also mentions Hill's ground game as a potential factor, but expects a standup war.

wins by KO/TKO
"I'm going and new sweet dreams Jamal Hill"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, citing that the line is great value. He notes that Pereira is a world-class kickboxer and that Hill's best kickboxing opponent might be Johnny Walker. He also mentions that Hill has been injured for over a year and may not be sharp. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be too much for Hill.

"I love the line here I'll take Paha at at such a low line he's just way more dangerous uh scarier fighter than than Hill"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Hill was not cleared to train until February, which is alarming. He also mentions that Hill seems convinced he can box with Pereira, but his past fights don't show that level of striking. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be the difference.

"I think he's gonna see the difference here the technical striking of Alex paa you know he got caught one time against isra AIS Anna but like when is paja looked bad boxing anybody else"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Pereira

Pereira is the technically better fighter. Hill is coming back too early from injury and took the fight for the big stage, which will cause bad decisions. Pereira's striking will take advantage and land the check left hook, putting Hill out within two or three rounds.

knockout within two or three rounds
"I think he puts Jamal Hill out within two or three rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, laying the chalk with Pereira. He notes the strange narrative of Hill immediately contacting Israel Adesanya for advice, which suggests short-notice preparation. Paul points out that throwing volume leaves you open for counters, and Pereira can take your head off at any point. He also mentions Hill has never been hurt or knocked down, so Pereira needs to land the money shot. Paul sees the fight as super competitive but favors Pereira's power and preparation.

"I'm with you, I'm laying the chalk with Alex Pereira but I wouldn't be shocked obviously either way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win, citing Hill's defensive flaws and long layoff after an Achilles injury. He notes Hill's right hand drops and that Pereira's left hook and low kicks will be key. He worries about Hill's momentum and believes Pereira can find the knockout.

"Alex Pereira is going to win."
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 75 of 160 46% 108 of 196 2 of 17 11% 0 0 3:26
Glover Teixeira 0 232 of 402 57% 248 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 27 44% 14 of 29 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:03
Glover Teixeira 0 46 of 85 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 21 of 44 47% 28 of 52 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:16
Glover Teixeira 0 51 of 91 56% 52 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Jamahal Hill 0 17 of 30 56% 18 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:13
Glover Teixeira 0 44 of 82 53% 51 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
4 Jamahal Hill 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Glover Teixeira 0 79 of 120 65% 79 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
5 Jamahal Hill 0 7 of 18 38% 30 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:44
Glover Teixeira 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 75 of 160 46% 52 of 136 19 of 20 4 of 4 65 of 145 5 of 6 5 of 9
Glover Teixeira 232 of 402 57% 180 of 343 42 of 49 10 of 10 188 of 347 18 of 21 26 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 46 of 85 54% 27 of 65 13 of 14 6 of 6 42 of 81 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 21 of 44 47% 15 of 38 4 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 37 4 of 4 2 of 3
Glover Teixeira 51 of 91 56% 38 of 77 9 of 10 4 of 4 49 of 87 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 17 of 30 56% 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 44 of 82 53% 41 of 76 3 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 56 1 of 1 19 of 25
4 Jamahal Hill 18 of 41 43% 12 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 79 of 120 65% 65 of 104 14 of 16 0 of 0 68 of 108 11 of 12 0 of 0
5 Jamahal Hill 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 6
Glover Teixeira 12 of 24 50% 9 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 9
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Big Brady picks the 43-year-old Teixeira despite age concerns, noting he has been counted out before and keeps winning. He highlights Teixeira's durability, having not been knocked out since 2017, and his excellent grappling and ground and pound. He questions Hill's takedown defense, as he was taken down six times by Thiago Santos. He thinks Teixeira can get takedowns and finish, but has low confidence due to Hill's power. He predicts a finish.

"I'm gonna pick the 43 year old here I'm going to take over the share to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill but admits he is not super confident. He thinks Hill is one of the best strikers in the division with power and calmness, and believes Hill will clip Glover in the later rounds after giving up early rounds. He acknowledges Glover's massive grappling advantage and Hill's poor takedown defense, but thinks Hill's youth and striking will prevail. He suggests live betting Glover after losing early rounds.

suggests live betting Glover after losing early rounds; mentions total set at 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds at +180, Glover's takedowns at 2.5 on PrizePicks, Hill's strikes at 40.5
"I'm gonna take Jamal hell but what I will admit is that if you were gonna bet Glover just like you said maybe better while the fight's going on maybe hit that live bet"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Connor picks Jamahal Hill, citing youth, power, and the likelihood that Glover gets hurt and finished early. He compares it to the Anthony Johnson loss where Glover was iced in 13 seconds. Connor admits Glover is better everywhere but feels Hill's speed and one-two power could end it quickly. He acknowledges that if the fight goes past one round, Glover likely wins.

Connor mentions Hill's odds at -133 but does not place a bet.
"I'm gonna pick Jamal Hill. The youth, the power, Glover getting hurt all the time, his ability to just stick on a one two and do it really fast and early."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Paul picks Glover Teixeira but is very cautious, admitting bias because he loves Glover. He notes Glover's massive grappling advantage and great wrestling, but acknowledges he is long in the tooth and gives up speed. He sees arguments for both sides and is not betting pre-fight, but might bet live if things go well. He thinks Glover can win via grappling and top control.

not betting pre-fight, might bet live; mentions Glover's takedowns
"I'm not gonna bet it because we are closer to a pickum I see the arguments for both sides I'm picking Glover maybe because I'm a little bit biased and love the guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

The Guru picks Teixeira as an underdog. He rewatched Hill vs Santos and noted Santos took Hill down six times, and Hill gave up bad positions. Teixeira's grappling is superior, and he stayed in shape after a December fight was canceled. The Guru criticizes Hill's physique, saying he had a 'huge belly' in fight announcement videos. He predicts Teixeira will find a rear-naked choke in the second or third round, or possibly after rocking Hill on the feet.

submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna go with Glover to Shara here he has been made an underdog in this matchup so I have to pick Clover to Shara over Jamal Hill"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Zane picks Glover Teixeira, arguing that Glover is a much better fighter overall—better striker, wrestler, and grappler. He notes that Jamahal Hill has poor defense, walks in straight lines, and has never faced a grappler of Glover's caliber. Zane believes Glover's improved boxing and ability to survive being hurt will carry him to victory, especially if the fight goes past the first round.

Glover Teixeira opened at +130, dropped to +100, now +110; Hill opened at -150, now -133. Zane mentions Glover's odds movement but does not place a bet.
"I'm for sure picking Glover Teixeira. I think really if he just gets much much older overnight than he already is uh or Jamal Hill gets very lucky and lands a Rumble Johnson style uppercut or something."
WIN vs Thiago Santos
TKO (punches and elbows) R4 2:31 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 53 of 94 56% 56 of 98 6 of 20 30% 0 0 5:54
Thiago Santos 0 89 of 152 58% 130 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 10 of 18 55% 11 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 30 30% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:41
Thiago Santos 0 31 of 52 59% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 11 72% 10 of 14 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:50
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 11 81% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
4 Jamahal Hill 0 19 of 27 70% 19 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 40 of 59 67% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 53 of 94 56% 28 of 66 13 of 16 12 of 12 43 of 82 8 of 9 2 of 3
Thiago Santos 89 of 152 58% 68 of 131 12 of 12 9 of 9 52 of 107 19 of 21 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 10 of 18 55% 1 of 8 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 9 of 30 30% 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 16 of 38 42% 9 of 29 5 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 1
Thiago Santos 31 of 52 59% 19 of 40 5 of 5 7 of 7 28 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 8 of 11 72% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 3 of 3 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 7 of 7 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 19 of 27 70% 12 of 20 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 40 of 59 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 29 5 of 6 18 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.

"given what tiago santos has become we got to go with jamal hill here right"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.

second or third round knockout prediction
"i like jamal hill i'd like to help you win by knockout i'll say like second or third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by late stoppage (rounds 4-5) or decision
"I got Hill as well... I'm just not on team Thiago Santos... he's a lot older... since he's come back has just been less than kind."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.

Parlayed with Michał Oleksiejczuk at -158 to win 2 units
"I gotta go with Jamal Hill here so I took Jamal Hill minus 260 and I parlayed him with... Mija Oleg Zach"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by decision or late stoppage (rounds 4-5)
"I think Jamahal Hill is a little bit too fast for Thiago Santos... Hill will be the pick don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go jamal hill... i'm gonna see jamal hill pressuring him down walking him down landing some good combos and then maybe just like landing a good straight one two right on thiago santos against the cage at the …"
WIN vs Johnny Walker
KO (punch) R1 2:55 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Johnny Walker 1 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Johnny Walker 1 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 3 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 3 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker but is hesitant, noting that Walker's last fight against Thiago Santos was too controlled and he lost his identity. He believes Walker needs to return to his unorthodox, high-volume style to win, otherwise Jamahal Hill will piece him up. Angelo thinks the disappointing loss may motivate Walker to revert to his natural style.

"i do like johnny walker here i feel like that last fight was such a big disappointing loss to him that he's going to come out here and he's going to try to be who he was"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, citing his high output, durability, and cardio. He notes Walker's striking defense is poor and his chin is a concern. He believes Walker's only path is to be wild, but Hill can handle it. He predicts Hill wins by second round knockout.

win by second round knockout
"give me jamal hill to win I'll take him to win my second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill based on Hill's superior hands and power, noting that Johnny Walker has a questionable chin and has been knocked out quickly in the past. He highlights Hill's sharp jab and right hand, and his legitimate KO victories over durable opponents like Jimmy Crute and Alvin St. Pruitt. Cody also points out that Walker's explosiveness has been diminished since training with John Kavanagh, and that Walker's cardio and takedown defense are poor. He believes Hill can keep the fight standing and eventually clip Walker.

"just feel like yamaha hill's got the better hands he's gonna clip him at some point and i just don't love johnny walker's ability to take a punch"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi is confident in Jamahal Hill, citing his volume, body work, and discipline. He notes that Hill has the output of a smaller fighter but at 6'4" with an 80-inch reach, and that his only loss came from overconfidence on the ground, which Walker won't exploit. Levi believes Hill will knock out Walker, likely in the first round, and that Walker hasn't looked the same since the Corey Anderson fight.

under 1.5 rounds mentioned as dog money, but not explicitly bet; Hill by KO in first round predicted
"i think he comes out here and knocks out johnny walker... i'm going first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Hill is the more active striker and will pressure Walker, who tends to be hesitant. Hill's power and sniping ability should find Walker's chin. Walker has knockout power too, but Hill is the more likely finisher. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play, as Hill should get the KO early. Hill by KO at -130 and round props are also attractive.

under 2.5 rounds (-175), Hill by KO (-130), Hill round 1 (+200), Hill round 2 (+500), Hill by KO in rounds 1-3 (+115)
"i think i took an alternate under here under two and a half rounds at minus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that the fight comes down to volume and durability. He notes that Walker is a low-volume striker (around 50 significant strikes per fight) while Hill has shown high output, landing over 100 significant strikes in a fight. Paul also mentions that Walker's recent performances have been boring and ineffective, and that Hill hasn't been rocked in his fights. He is confident in Hill but doesn't love the -250 price.

"i think it really comes down to volume and one guy over the course of three rounds is probably going to land you know 70 significant strikes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Johnny Walker's range control and chin, believing Hill's pressure and power will be too much. He predicts Hill will march Walker down, land combinations, and put him away with a left hook as Walker throws a front kick. He notes Hill's confidence and momentum from his last win, and that Walker has a chin problem.

first round ko (left hook)
"i'm gonna go with jamal hill in the main event i'm going to go with jamal hill by first round ko in the main event"
WIN vs Jimmy Crute
KO (punches) R1 0:48 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Over 1.5 rounds bet (1 unit)
"i like jimmy to win i see a good amount of takedowns here so i actually like the 9 200 bucks"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

by submission
"give me jimmy crew to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

"i gotta think that hill edges them out um again this is a plus 140 hill this is a close fight this is the fight that i would label probably as a dogger pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

"I think jamal pieces him up with way too much volume and length and fluidity and speed on the fee so give me jamal hill to win a decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

"wrestle jimmy and you'll get the win just like dan said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Crute by submission +250
"i think it's the crew by submission honestly croot submission plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

"i'm gonna lean towards hill here i think um if he does get taken to the ground his grappling looked good enough or at least his heart looked good enough that he wasn't gonna tap"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.

first round kimura
"i'm gonna go with jimmy croots by first round kimura"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 1:59 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 23 of 25 92% 43 of 47 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:03
Jamahal Hill 0 1 of 8 12% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 23 of 25 92% 43 of 47 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:03
Jamahal Hill 0 1 of 8 12% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 23 of 25 92% 18 of 20 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 18
Jamahal Hill 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 23 of 25 92% 18 of 20 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 18
Jamahal Hill 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive striking advantage, volume, and cardio. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous submission game but believes Hill's takedown defense and get-up ability will keep the fight standing. He warns against putting Hill in parlays due to the submission threat.

Hill by KO, round 1
"i'll take hill i'll take hill to knock out paul craig in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody is confident in Hill, noting his striking, reach, and power. He thinks Hill will stuff Craig's takedowns and knock him out, likely inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and Hill by knockout. He also mentions Craig's weak chin and the level of competition Craig has faced.

under 1.5 rounds (+100), Hill by knockout (-165)
"i got hill i got hill by knockout i also like the under one and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to knock out Paul Craig, praising Hill's output and technique. He notes that Hill has a high-volume striking style and has shown good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's chin-up tendency when pressured will be exploited. He believes Hill is a future contender and will make a statement.

by knockout
"i think saturday night uh he's going to make a big statement i think he's going to knock out paul craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Jamahal Hill

Hill has a massive striking advantage with diverse attacks, including a vicious body kick. Craig's only path is to get the fight to the ground, but Hill's takedown defense and submission defense should keep it standing. Hill will land devastating shots and likely knock Craig out in the first or second round.

Hill by KO/TKO (first or second round)
"I think that Jamal Hill will go out there and showcase some good takedown defense... he will be able to land the bigger and much better shots on the feet and I think ultimately he'll be able to put down …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul agrees Hill is a confident pick. He notes Hill's size, southpaw stance, and power, and thinks he will finish Craig inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and plans to parlay Hill with Edwards.

under 1.5 rounds (+100)
"jamal hill is the pick i don't love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill, calling it an obvious prediction. He criticizes Paul Craig's wins over an aged Shogun Rua and notes Hill's superior striking, takedown defense, and head movement. He predicts a first-round KO via straight shot, citing Hill's reach and youth.

first round ko
"i'm going with jimmy whole hill i think it's a very very obvious prediction"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.

"I think Yuri pahaska wins I've completely 180 flipped here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.

Mentions that this is a 205-pound striking match and buyer beware, but no specific prop.
"I like Jamal Hill I think this is definitely a value play this week minus 130 around that range"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.

Odds: Hill opened +122, now -125; Procházka opened -136, now +112. Connor thinks Procházka should be the favorite.
"Yuri is gonna win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.

Daniel took Hill at +100 earlier and says the line should be closer to -150. He mentions that both fighters have knockout power but Hill's volume is key.
"I actually took Hill here at plus 100 um I thought that you know if I'm the book Nick I'm charging you chalk on both sides"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.

"my prediction is Jamal Hill via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.

finishes within 10 minutes
"I am going to have to lean with the power striking and pressure of prasa here if his durability holds up similar to what I said about darush in the previous fight he should be able to pressure Hill walk through his offense land big shots of his own break …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -270 as a parlay piece. Also mentions under 1.5 rounds at +130 as a possibility.
"my preferred way like as a parlay piece is like taking like the minus 270 fight doesn't go to decision and uh and using that as a parlay piece this week"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"You got to take your knee here. Yuri beats Jamal Hill."