Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
Career Averages - Renato Moicano
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 61 | 29% | 30 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 140 of 188 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 19:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:52 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 32 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 22 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 61 | 29% | 10 of 45 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 30 of 57 | 52% | 14 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 4 of 18 | 22% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.
Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.
Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.
Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.
The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.
Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.
Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.
Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.
The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 88 of 156 | 56% | 147 of 222 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 74 of 183 | 40% | 104 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 46 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 29 of 53 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 23 of 61 | 37% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 88 of 156 | 56% | 81 of 148 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 71 of 136 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 |
| Dustin Poirier | 74 of 183 | 40% | 53 of 159 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 51 of 157 | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dustin Poirier | 24 of 58 | 41% | 18 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 24 | 75% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Poirier | 15 of 36 | 41% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 20 of 44 | 45% | 17 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 23 of 61 | 37% | 12 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 33 | 54% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.
Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.
Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.
Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.
Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.
The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.
Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.
Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.
James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.
Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 57 of 95 | 60% | 95 of 135 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 7:37 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 70 of 143 | 48% | 164 of 255 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 19 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 49 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 57 of 95 | 60% | 36 of 72 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 70 of 143 | 48% | 37 of 96 | 21 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 58 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 19 of 32 | 59% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 34 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 16 of 22 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.
Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.
Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.
Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.
Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.
Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.
Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 72 of 86 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 19 of 39 | 48% | 7 of 23 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 41 | 73% | 25 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Charles Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 23 | 78% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.
Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.
Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.
Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.
Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.
Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.
Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.
Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.
Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.
Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.
Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.
Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.
Renato Moicano - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 62 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 46 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 21 of 36 | 58% | 16 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 27 of 62 | 43% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 14 of 20 | 70% | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Duncan | 17 of 38 | 44% | 3 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Duncan, noting his durability and never-quit attitude. He acknowledges Moicano is more technical and experienced but believes Moicano is old and used up. He points out that Duncan has a history of winning fights he's not supposed to and that Moicano's recent focus may not be enough. Angelo has no bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Moicano is dangerous in the first round but fades after that, citing the Dariush fight where Moicano did nothing in the last 10 minutes. He believes Duncan has better cardio, durability, and power, and that his takedown defense has improved since the Manuel Torres loss. He expects Duncan to drop the first round but take over and eventually knock out Moicano.
Cody picks Duncan due to his momentum, youth, and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes Moicano's losing streak and potential lack of focus, but acknowledges the fight could be competitive early. He expects Duncan's superior striking and work rate to secure a win.
The host finds it difficult to bet pre-fight. He notes Duncan is easy to take down, which plays into Moicano's strength, but Moicano's chin and cardio are questionable in a five-round fight. He sees value on neither side and will watch for live betting. He also notes the odds for 'fight doesn't go to decision' are terrible.
Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing his durability and power advantage over Moicano. He believes Duncan's momentum and shorter camp have him in peak form, and he predicts a fourth-round TKO finish. James also notes that Duncan's confidence is high from training with Moicano and seeing his own improvement.
James is rooting for his friend Chris Duncan and has released a full breakdown video with him. He mentions Chris is his friend and he will be rooting for him against Moicano, indicating a clear pick for Duncan.
Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing Duncan's upward trajectory, age advantage (32 vs 36), superior cardio, durability, and will to win. He notes Moicano's possible decline due to outside interests and a longer camp. James expects a war but believes Duncan's physicality and recoverability will carry him, especially in later rounds. He mentions Duncan's power and takedown defense as key factors, though he acknowledges Moicano's early speed and submission threat. James states he won't bet publicly due to friendship bias but will have 'beer money' on Duncan.
The host expects Duncan to counter Moicano effectively, showcase good grappling defense, and eventually break Moicano for a finish inside the distance. He notes Moicano's recent struggles, poor durability, and questionable gas tank, while Duncan is on a four-fight winning streak with evolving skills. The host predicts a second-round TKO or submission for Duncan.
Paul leans towards Duncan, citing that Moicano struggles when outwrestled. He expects Duncan to use takedowns and control to win, though he's not heavily invested and plans to live bet.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan, admitting he has doubted him before but is now convinced. He believes Duncan's durability, grit, and damage output will overcome Moicano, especially if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Moicano hasn't looked himself and that Duncan has good submission defense. He predicts a third-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 56 of 107 | 52% | 77 of 131 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:53 |
| Renato Moicano | 1 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Renato Moicano | 1 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 28 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 27 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 56 of 107 | 52% | 30 of 73 | 10 of 15 | 16 of 19 | 47 of 95 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 31 of 61 | 50% | 25 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 54 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 22 of 46 | 47% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 10 of 12 | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 22 of 42 | 52% | 16 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 26 of 47 | 55% | 13 of 32 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Beneil Dariush because he believes Dariush's grappling and striking are a good matchup against Renato Moicano, who he thinks is too busy with outside commitments to be fully focused. He notes that Dariush is a BJJ world champion and a powerful striker, and he doesn't see Moicano out-grappling him. He also points out that Moicano's takedowns are not clean and he often clinches, while Dariush has shown incredible scrambles against top competition.
Big Brady likes the stylistic matchup for Dariush, who has elite takedown defense and is the better striker with more power. However, he is worried about Dariush coming off back-to-back knockout losses, his age, and potential chin issues. He thinks Moicano doesn't have knockout power but could still hurt Dariush. Brady predicts Dariush will win by knockout, but he is not confident due to the layoff and durability concerns.
Connor picks Dariush but is not confident. He notes that Moicano has never knocked anyone out standing, so Dariush can survive on the feet. He believes Dariush's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Moicano's confidence can waver when things go wrong. However, he acknowledges that Moicano's lightweight run has been unpredictable and that Dariush has been knocked out brutally before.
The host is surprised Moicano is the favorite, believing Dariush's durability and grappling defense will shut down Moicano's approach. He predicts Dariush will land big shots and finish inside the distance, likely by TKO or submission within two and a half rounds.
The host picks Renato Moicano by decision, citing Dariush's long layoff and recent KO losses. He believes Moicano's grappling and striking have improved, and that he will start fast and set the tone. He expects a competitive fight but sees Moicano winning a 29-28 decision.
Zane also picks Dariush but is hesitant. He agrees that Moicano is not a dangerous striker and that Dariush can likely outgrapple him. He notes that Dariush has fought and beaten good grapplers before. However, he acknowledges that Moicano's run has been strange and that he has a tendency to find ways to win even when losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.
Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.
Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.
Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.
The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 50 of 72 | 69% | 72 of 98 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 35 of 40 | 87% | 57 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 50 of 72 | 69% | 46 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 33 of 36 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 44 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 35 of 40 | 87% | 34 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 36 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 15 of 32 | 46% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 44 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing his all-gas-no-brakes pressure and grappling will be too much for Moicano. He notes that Moicano has a shaky chin and is not dangerous enough to stop Saint Denis's forward pressure. He references Saint Denis's dominant first round against Dustin Poirier, suggesting that same level of pressure will overwhelm Moicano. He dismisses the staph infection excuse as a potential factor but leans toward Saint Denis's performance being legitimate.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis by first-round knockout, describing him as a beast who pushes a crazy pace with power in his hands and body kicks. He notes Moicano's chin has always been an issue and Saint Denis will bring a car crash that Moicano won't survive. He expects an early finish.
Cody picks Benoît Saint Denis as his cash game play, citing his elite fantasy scoring in wins (109, 149, 115, 136, 105) and his aggression and wrestling ability. He notes that Saint Denis is a heavy favorite at minus 300 and has a minus 200 line to win inside the distance. Cody acknowledges that Moicano is a better technical fighter and could be a valuable tournament target, but Moicano's durability issues make Saint Denis the safer cash game pick.
Cody believes BSD is a legitimate future title challenger with relentless pressure, top-notch grappling, and physicality. He excuses BSD's loss to Dustin Poirier due to a staph infection and thinks a healthy BSD would have won. He sees Moicano's questionable chin and cardio as vulnerabilities, and expects BSD to overwhelm him with pace and aggression.
Connor picks Saint Denis because he believes Saint Denis's relentless pressure and physicality will overwhelm Moicano, who often gets hurt early and relies on wrestling to recover. He notes that Saint Denis is a strong scrambler and has never been held down, making Moicano's path to victory difficult. Connor acknowledges that Moicano could win if he survives the early onslaught, but he doubts Moicano can consistently find his grappling outlet against Saint Denis's pace.
Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO. He believes BSD's pressure, power, and body kicks will be too much for Moicano, who has poor striking defense and a questionable chin. He notes that Moicano is tough and has good grappling, but BSD's wrestling and ground-and-pound should secure the finish. He also mentions that the price is high at -270, but sees value in the KO prop at plus money.
JP picks Benoît Saint Denis because he thinks Saint Denis is a problem with power and toughness. He notes Saint Denis was beating Dustin Poirier before getting clipped, and he had a staph infection in that fight. He thinks Moicano gets hit too much and doesn't have the power to put Saint Denis away. He also mentions the fight is in France, which could favor the French fighter in a close decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting BSD's aggressive style, takedown ability, and durability. He notes that Moicano's path to victory via submission is unlikely against BSD's grappling. Paul also points out that Moicano's low output and cardio issues make him vulnerable in a five-round fight, especially in front of a French crowd.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano over Benoît Saint Denis, emphasizing Moicano's underrated Jiu-Jitsu and significant experience advantage (9 years more as a pro). He notes Saint Denis' tendency to kick up and expose his back, which Moicano can exploit with body locks and back takes. He predicts a third-round submission via rear-naked choke after ground and pound.
Zane picks Saint Denis because he believes Saint Denis's constant pressure and pace will be too much for Moicano, who often gets hurt early and struggles to recover against relentless fighters. He notes that Moicano's best wins have come against grapplers who allow him to slow the fight down, but Saint Denis never stops coming. Zane also points out that Moicano's path to victory relies on surviving the early storm and then outworking Saint Denis, which he considers unlikely given Saint Denis's cardio and durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 1 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 36 of 67 | 53% | 87 of 128 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 1 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 32 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 55 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 16 of 40 | 40% | 10 of 32 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 36 of 67 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 9 of 25 | 36% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 28 of 51 | 54% | 26 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 38 |
Angelo is confident in Jalin Turner, citing his phenomenal striking, length, and takedown defense. He notes Moicano's BJJ is dangerous but Turner should piece him up and potentially finish. He mentions Turner has never won a decision, so a finish is likely.
Cody is high on Turner's potential. He notes Turner's length (6'3", 77-inch reach), solid takedown defense (75%), and nasty power. Moicano lacks volume and offensive wrestling; his wins often come by quick submission or low-volume decisions. Cody points out that Moicano was a 145er and Turner is a big lightweight who could even be a middleweight. He believes Turner's power and reach will be too much, and he expects a finish, possibly a first-round knockout. Cody mentions Turner's cardio issues in past fights but thinks Moicano doesn't have the pressure to exploit them.
Connor picks Turner, emphasizing that Moicano's counter-punching and wrestling will not be enough. He notes that Turner is difficult to take down and works well from his back, while Moicano's confidence often breaks when pressured. Connor believes Turner's reach and power will be too much for Moicano to handle over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jalin Turner, citing his improved striking, range management, and takedown defense. He believes Turner's power and length will be too much for Moicano, and that Turner will knock him out. Vreeland notes Moicano's submission threat but doubts his chin can hold up.
Turner has a striking advantage and power, but Moicano will grab a body lock and drag the fight to the ground. Moicano's BJJ will reign supreme, opening a back take opportunity for a rear-naked choke submission. Moicano pulls off the upset as a +195 underdog.
Paul agrees, noting Moicano's last performance against Drew Dober was a problem—he got a takedown in round three but did little with it. Paul points out that Moicano's wrestling should have dominated Dober but didn't. He also mentions Turner is a big lightweight, while Moicano moved up from 145. Paul thinks Turner's power will be decisive and expects a finish, possibly a first-round knockout. He notes that Moicano's cardio wasn't great in the Dober fight either.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano to submit Jalin Turner via rear-naked choke in round one. He notes that Moicano has submission ability and that Turner has been taken down and controlled by grapplers like Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Moicano will find Turner's hips, take his back, and sink in the choke.
Zane picks Turner confidently, despite disliking his style. He notes that Turner's reach and power make him dangerous early, and Moicano is hittable and prone to losing confidence. Zane argues that Moicano's clinch wrestling will not work against Turner's size and defensive grappling. He expects Turner to knock Moicano out early or win a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 142 of 177 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 10:33 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 36 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 43 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 34 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 17 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 23 of 42 | 54% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 |
| Drew Dober | 23 of 59 | 38% | 17 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober, trusting his chin and brawling ability. He notes that Moicano is chinny and hasn't fought in a year. He believes Dober can bait Moicano into a firefight and knock him out. He has a half-unit bet on Dober at +125.
Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first-round submission. He notes that Moicano has a huge advantage on the ground, and Dober has been submitted multiple times. However, Moicano sometimes falls in love with striking, which would be dangerous against Dober's power. Brady thinks Moicano will take Dober down and submit him, but acknowledges it's a 50-50 fight.
Cody picks Moicano, citing Dober's declining durability and Moicano's superior grappling and angles. He notes Dober's chin is fading after the Fialho knockout, and Moicano can set up takedowns with his jab. He sees Moicano by submission as a strong prop.
Moicano has a tremendous BJJ black belt and should be able to drag Dober to the ground and sink in a rear naked choke. However, the host is hesitant due to Moicano's long layoff and knee surgery at 34 years old. Dober has power and good cardio, but is at a skill disadvantage on the ground. The host expects the fight not to go to decision, with Moicano winning by submission.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moicano. He highlights Dober's reckless pressure and suspect takedown defense, while Moicano's jab and movement should set up takedowns. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters, and Dober has never been at that level.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Renato Moicano, predicting a TKO. He cites Moicano's long layoff since November 2022 due to a leg injury, and doubts he will look his best. He believes Dober has more power on the feet and has impressive wins over Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves, and Bobby Green. He thinks Moicano will struggle to take Dober down and that Dober will catch him with his hands down, Korean Zombie style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 14 of 25 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 10 of 33 | 30% | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 14 of 25 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 10 of 33 | 30% | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Riddell is the better striker and expects the fight to stay standing. He notes that Moicano's losses are mostly to strikers who out-struck him, and his chin is questionable. He thinks Riddell can mix in takedowns if needed and protect his neck. He will wait for props to drop before betting.
Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by submission. He notes Moicano's height and reach advantage, and that his ground game is excellent with many submissions. He believes Moicano will take the fight to the mat, where he has a clear advantage. He points out Riddell's 62% takedown defense and that he has been finished before (by Jalin Turner and Rafael Fiziev). He trusts Moicano to wrestle and get the submission.
Cody picks Brad Riddell by decision, but is not confident. He notes that Riddell at his best wins this fight as the better striker with good takedown defense, but he has concerns about Riddell's recent performances, including being gun-shy against Fiziev and getting submitted by Turner. Cody thinks Riddell's confidence may be an issue, but he still sees a path to victory by staying at range and countering.
Connor picks Brad Riddell because Riddell's counter-punching style and ability to gather data over the course of a fight make him more reliable. He notes that Moicano has shown a tendency to shut down when hurt, as seen in the Alex Hernandez fight, and that Riddell consistently improves round to round. Connor also mentions that Moicano's submission threats are unlikely to work against Riddell, who has never been submitted.
Daniel Levi leans toward Brad Riddell as a slight underdog, believing Riddell's kickboxing combinations can exploit Moicano's tall-man's defense and chin. He notes that Moicano has been clipped before and that Riddell's striking is more technical and powerful. However, he is worried about Moicano's back-taking ability and submissions if the fight goes to the ground. Levi thinks the line should be flipped with Riddell as a slight favorite, and he is considering a bet at plus money.
The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Riddell via KO. He notes Moicano's early submission threat but believes Riddell's takedown defense and striking advantage will prevail as the fight goes on. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -110 over betting Riddell's moneyline, expecting a finish from Riddell's power.
Paul picks Moicano, noting that Riddell leans on his wrestling when things get shaky, which could be a recipe for disaster against Moicano's grappling. He is impressed by Moicano's recent improvements, especially his takedowns against Herbert and Hernandez. Paul does not see crazy power from Riddell and thinks Moicano's chin is a concern, but he leans slightly to Moicano unless a good submission prop appears.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano, citing Riddell's vulnerability after being KO'd by Fiziev and rocked by Dober. He believes Moicano will pressure, find a scramble, take Riddell's back, and choke him out. He notes Riddell's lack of offensive grappling and Moicano's experience and submission skills, predicting a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.
Zane picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing that Riddell's ability to rally from bad rounds is proven, while Moicano's recent rally against Alex Hernandez was against a fighter prone to breaking. He notes that Moicano has been knocked out by various heavy-handed punchers and that Riddell's training with Fiziev could be instructive. Zane also points out that Moicano's submission wins come from guillotines, which are unlikely against Riddell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 149 of 286 | 52% | 179 of 318 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 88 of 172 | 51% | 99 of 185 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 30 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 32 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 52 of 97 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 38 of 79 | 48% | 38 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 149 of 286 | 52% | 119 of 255 | 23 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 84 of 198 | 7 of 8 | 58 of 80 |
| Renato Moicano | 88 of 172 | 51% | 77 of 158 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 81 of 164 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 34 | 64% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 14 |
| Renato Moicano | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 29 | 51% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 40 of 84 | 47% | 34 of 77 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 38 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 42 | 52% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
| Renato Moicano | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 38 of 79 | 48% | 32 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 36 of 73 | 49% | 33 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.
Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.
Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.
RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.
Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.
Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.
Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.
Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.
The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.
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