UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jailton Almeida
2.23 SLpM
62.0% Str. Acc.
1.3 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
5.64 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Serghei Spivac
3.57 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.23 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
3.82 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Jailton Almeida - Fight History
LOSS vs Rizvan Kuniev
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 31 of 67 46% 50 of 92 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:24
Rizvan Kuniev 0 43 of 93 46% 102 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 6:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 12 41% 14 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:11
Rizvan Kuniev 0 12 of 24 50% 33 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
2 Jailton Almeida 0 8 of 21 38% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rizvan Kuniev 0 15 of 35 42% 30 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Jailton Almeida 0 18 of 34 52% 21 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:13
Rizvan Kuniev 0 16 of 34 47% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 31 of 67 46% 17 of 50 12 of 15 2 of 2 23 of 57 8 of 10 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 43 of 93 46% 31 of 77 11 of 15 1 of 1 22 of 65 21 of 28 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 12 of 24 50% 5 of 15 6 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 12 8 of 12 0 of 0
2 Jailton Almeida 8 of 21 38% 4 of 14 4 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 15 of 35 42% 12 of 30 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Jailton Almeida 18 of 34 52% 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 16 of 34 47% 14 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 25 7 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, calling him one of the best wrestling heavyweights ever. He notes Almeida's spectacular takedown execution and believes he will dominate Kuniev on the ground. He mentions that Almeida was robbed in his last fight against Alexander Volkov, where he had 7 takedowns and 11 minutes of control time. He advises jumping on the -220 line before it moves.

"Jolton's the pick. Very com minus 220. I would jump on that now before it's minus 400,000."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Big Brady picks Rizvan Kuniev as a dog, noting that Kuniev stuffed takedowns well against Curtis Blades, who is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. He believes Almeida has poor cardio and doesn't handle adversity well, and if Kuniev can stuff early takedowns, he will break and finish Almeida. He predicts a second-round knockout.

by second round knockout
"I'm going Kunov here... Give me Rizon Kunia by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Cody also picks Kuniev, highlighting Almeida's lack of size and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's control time doesn't score well with judges, and Kuniev's striking and clinch work should earn him rounds. Cody expects a decision win for Kuniev, with the over being a strong play.

over 1.5 rounds
"Kunay meanwhile... he's not going to hold you up against the cage and land shorts the whole time. It's not who he is."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Connor picks Kuniev, citing his solid takedown defense and steady, measured aggression. He believes Kuniev's simple, mistake-free style could be the recipe to handle Almeida, especially if Almeida can't get takedowns. He notes that Almeida's striking is poor and Kuniev could pressure him. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Kuniev's lack of UFC experience.

Same odds discussion.
"I might take Kunev actually."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Lucrative James picks Jailton Almeida to win by submission in round one. He believes Almeida's grappling will be too much for Kuniev, who showed poor takedown defense against Curtis Blades. James notes that Almeida is excellent at taking the back and finishing, while Kuniev is primarily a striker.

win in round 1
"My prediction for this fight is Jolton Almeida to win in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

The host picks Kuniev by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He believes Kuniev can stop Almeida's takedowns and work back to his feet quickly, then outbox Almeida and take over as Almeida gasses. He notes Kuniev's striking and wrestling are underrated, and that Almeida struggles when he can't get takedowns.

round 2 or 3 TKO
"So, I'm going to go Kunv here. I think he gets that round two, round three TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Paul picks Rizvan Kuniev, citing Almeida's struggles with modern judging that favors damage over control time. He notes Kuniev's better boxing and durability, and Almeida's inability to finish or hold down bigger opponents. Paul expects Kuniev to land the more impactful strikes and edge a decision.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm not the biggest Rizon guy... but credit where credit's due, last fight he lost a decision that frankly most people scored for him against Curtis Blades."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

The host picks Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev. He thinks Almeida's grappling will be too much, and he will out-scramble Kuniev. He notes Kuniev's conditioning may be an issue later in the fight. He expects Almeida to win, possibly boringly, and hopes he gets cut afterwards.

"I'm going to go with Jailton Almeida, a little bit too athletic."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida but acknowledges Kuniev's solid defensive wrestling and measured aggression. He notes that Kuniev's performance against Curtis Blades was impressive, but Blades has been disconnected from his wrestling. He thinks Almeida's relentless takedown attempts could overwhelm Kuniev, but if Kuniev stuffs them, Almeida could be in trouble.

Almeida opened at -550, currently -145; Kuniev opened at +420, currently +125. Zane likes the line, saying Almeida should be a slight favorite.
"I think I have to pick Almeida over three rounds, but Kunev is a dark course."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 24 of 27 88% 123 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:57
Jailton Almeida 0 9 of 10 90% 27 of 33 7 of 9 77% 0 0 10:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 15 100% 38 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:14
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:38
2 Alexander Volkov 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jailton Almeida 0 4 of 5 80% 9 of 11 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:27
3 Alexander Volkov 0 7 of 8 87% 77 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 5 100% 17 of 21 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 24 of 27 88% 19 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 17
Jailton Almeida 9 of 10 90% 8 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 15 100% 15 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 15
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jailton Almeida 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Alexander Volkov 7 of 8 87% 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 5 of 5 100% 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)

Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.

"Jailton's wrestling at heavyweight is literally the best we have ever seen. ... I think he gets Volkov to the ground immediately. And I think he has him in trouble. I'm going to pick Jailton."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.

Almeida by first round submission
"I like Jailton here. I think he gets this fight down to the mat. I think he gets to a dominant position. I think he unloads with some ground and pound, and I think he eventually submits Alexander Volkov in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.

"I'm digging a little squeeze here. I'm digging a little squeeze. Can you be super confident? No, no. It's a middling heavyweight fight. But I got a path to victory here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to pick Volkov here. He just doesn't lose that many fights by getting submitted quickly. And I don't trust, uh, Almeida to just be able to easily positionally dominate him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.

wins by submission
"I'm going to pick Jelton Almeida to come out here, take down Alexander Volkov, submit him, and secure himself that UFC title shot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.

"I'm going to pick Alexander Volkov because I'm going to pick the value side, but I'm actually predicting Jolton to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Almeida will be able to chuck that off, get to his dominant positions, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.

"I agree with those the those sentiments. I mean, yeah, Jailton sub early is is definitely always on the table. Very good at getting those takedowns early. The cardio is falling off, especially when he really has to press."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.

Volkov by late rounds TKO; Volkov is an underdog
"I'm going to go with Alexander Volkov late rounds finish against Jailton Almeida."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.

"I'll pick Almeida. I'll pick Almeida. Oh, I'm checking it out. All right. Well, now, now, you know what this means. We're both going to be wrong."
TKO (punches) R1 4:53 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.

Parlay with Zachary Reese suggested.
"I absolutely think he wins this fight I don't know what s bvx going to do he's not going to defend the take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.

Almeida is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay. No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think gelel M has got the skill here honestly in all the fights that we've seen him in at this level... he's taking down his opponent and all of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says he is passing on betting due to the -420 price. He mentions Almeida's takedown ability and Spivac's lack of wrestling.
"I'll pick him as well but I'm passing betting wise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.

TKO stoppage
"I expect him to go out there and do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov grab the body lock find a trip get that top position against speac and smash him until he eventually gets that TKO stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think that there's a massive grappling disparity here and I think gon's the the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.

decision
"I am going to go with Jon Al MAA to beat Sergey spivac I reckon he will win a decision"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:27 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.

"I think jolton NOA is that guy I think he ragd dolls Romanov"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.

fight doesn't go to decision (-325), Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance
"I think it's a great bounce back spot here for Gilton but it's hard to completely trust a guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.

"Romanov's mad suspect... he's not trending upwards... Almeida can take down anybody... I got more faith in that than Romanov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.

"I'm gonna go Romanov on a limb"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.

"I am going with jelton as well um has the advantage wherever this goes"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.

"I can't believe Jon's negative 250 in this fight he should beg negative 3,000"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.

inside the distance
"I do like Almeida inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.

Romanov by decision
"This is a classic dogger pass heavyweight type of situation... Romanov's had a very controversial run but Almeida doesn't have a plan B."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.

"I'm going to side with Jon ala tossing Miss fat [__] round like a big slab of [__] pork in the [__] cage"
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
KO (punches) R2 0:36 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 25 64% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 9 of 11 9 of 13 69% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 8 of 8 9 of 12 75% 0 0 4:39
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 16 of 25 64% 16 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.

Waiting for plus money on Almeida; if he gets plus money, he will place a bet.
"J is going to take him down and Curtis blades isn't Derrick Lewis with the uppercut J is the pick I'm going to be waiting for that line movement tracker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.

win by first round submission
"give me Almeida Almeida to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.

"it's blades for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.

"I'm gonna lean with gton almea just because I think he's more trustworthy but I'm very aware about what could go wrong in this spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.

Blaydes by decision
"blades should have the advantages in this matchup blades should be able to drag this fight to the ground or at least stop the takedowns of Almeida hopefully utilize his footwork land some good strikes from the outside and then …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.

"I got blades as well just like it seems like stylistically this is his fight to lose"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.

decision
"I'm going to take Jon Alida getting onto the hips of blades and just being better than him ... I think he will win a decision"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 38 of 56 67% 120 of 153 6 of 15 40% 4 1 21:10
Derrick Lewis 0 20 of 39 51% 28 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:36
Derrick Lewis 0 6 of 11 54% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jailton Almeida 0 6 of 8 75% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:19
Derrick Lewis 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jailton Almeida 0 19 of 29 65% 33 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:57
Derrick Lewis 0 5 of 15 33% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
4 Jailton Almeida 0 2 of 2 100% 28 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:23
Derrick Lewis 0 2 of 2 100% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 27 of 32 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:55
Derrick Lewis 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 38 of 56 67% 32 of 48 5 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 7 3 of 8 30 of 41
Derrick Lewis 20 of 39 51% 17 of 33 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 11 of 15 73% 8 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 12
Derrick Lewis 6 of 11 54% 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 10
2 Jailton Almeida 6 of 8 75% 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7
Derrick Lewis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jailton Almeida 19 of 29 65% 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 16 of 21
Derrick Lewis 5 of 15 33% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12
4 Jailton Almeida 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
5 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Derrick Lewis 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)

Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)

The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.

line tightening from -475 to -450, would bet more if it continues
"the fact that JT NOA is only a minus 450 favorite the fact that that line is tightening instead of widening confuses the hell out of me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.

"I got to go g and Alida to get this done and get it done by by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.

Almeida wins inside distance, Almeida by submission, Almeida by TKO, fight doesn't go to decision, Almeida and fight to start round 3
"I think he dominates his fight... I think he finishes him within two rounds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.

James places a same-game parlay: Almeida 1+ takedown, Almeida wins in round 1, Almeida wins by submission. He also mentions a degenerate parlay including Almeida by submission.
"I honestly think that jonel made it is going to submit Derrick Lewis in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.

under 1.5 rounds; Almeida round one
"I really like Almeida in this spot, I really think under one and a half is probably the way to go... give me Almeida, Almeida round one, under one and a half probably the safest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

"gotta go jailon Al MAA... I think Jon's going to get him down drag him down stay on him... TKO to ground and pound"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:43 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.

Only way to bet is through parlays; safe to parlay
"jolton's gonna be the pick here and the only way you can bet on him is through parlays because the line is just too much for money line and I do think that is safe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.

first round finish (submission or KO)
"Jonathan Almeida is gonna go for a takedown within the first 10 seconds I mean I can almost guarantee it's gonna be like the first 10 to 20 seconds he's going to shoot a takedown and he's probably going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I got gelton Almeida but it's such a big favorite at this point that what can go wrong because what's been going wrong every single League pause like Murphy's Law what can go wrong has seemingly been going wrong"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.

under 4.5 rounds -1000, under 3.5 rounds -770, under 2.5 rounds -450, under 1.5 rounds -225; method likely submission or ground and pound
"I gotta go with the minus 500 favorite jealous and Almeida to get it done... jailton Almeida via something on the mat is the pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.

Considering prop bets on TKO (+300) or submission, or under 1.5 rounds; will decide based on lines.
"I'm predicting jar to now made it to go in there get a takedown just like Curtis blades did... I think John's going to get a first round finish here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds
"give me Jay Isleton Almeida to pick up the biggest win of his UFC career to date and do it emphatically in the first round under one and a half not too shabby either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I think Jason gets the takedown I think he gets it early I think he uh beats the you know what out of Rosen strike when he gets this fight to the mat but at minus 500 they have taken …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.

first round TKO or submission
"I'm going with jail to now made a jazzinio rosenstroik looked somewhat lost on the ground against Overeem... I think he's going to beat rosenstroik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
TKO (punches) R2 2:56 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 45 of 57 78% 89 of 110 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 14 of 17 82% 25 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:45
2 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 31 of 40 77% 64 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 45 of 57 78% 44 of 55 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 44 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 14 of 17 82% 14 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 15
2 Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 31 of 40 77% 30 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 37
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady is extremely confident in Almeida, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Abdurakhimov has been pulled out of fights repeatedly and is being fed to Almeida. He expects Almeida to take the fight down and finish in the first round, similar to Curtis Blaydes' win over Abdurakhimov but earlier. He says you can't even think about picking Shamil.

first round TKO
"you can't pick Shamil here you can't even think about picking Shamil here it would be a massive upset a massive massive upset give me Charlton gelatin I'll say first round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida confidently, expecting him to take down and smash Abdurakhimov. He notes Almeida's grappling is elite and Abdurakhimov's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Almeida's size disadvantage but thinks his skills overcome it. He says Almeida will win inside the distance, likely by submission. He acknowledges the -900 line is scary but thinks Almeida is the real deal.

considers over 1.5 rounds at +275; mentions Almeida inside the distance props
"I feel like gelatin rolls him up like I don't know that I would say he's minus 900 because again heavyweights heavyweights be heavyweights don't want to go down that road like I get it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees, calling Almeida a great athlete with tremendous skill. He notes Abdurakhimov has some trickiness but lacks durability and speed. Almeida should win easily, likely by submission.

"Almeida is a great athlete in stupendous condition and a tremendously skilled wrestler and grappler."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Jailton Almeida, noting his grappling and power. He says Almeida will take down and finish Abdurakhimov. He mentions Abdurakhimov's recent losses and poor takedown defense. He thinks Almeida is a future champion at 205 but is dominating heavyweights. He says Almeida inside the distance is a good bet.

mentions Almeida inside the distance; says Almeida by submission is -175
"I got all made I'll chase a better price but going on made it inside the distance I'm made of my submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The Guru is very confident in Almeida, calling him a 'roid monster' and noting his dominant grappling. He points out that Abdurakhimov is 41, inactive, and coming off a KO loss to Pavlovich. Almeida outgrappled a Dagestani on the contender series and has been competing in grappling tournaments. The Guru predicts a first-round submission by naked choke, calling it a walkover.

submission in first round
"I reckon he's going to win this one via naked choke in the first round again I think this is going to be a walkover for jail tonight made her he's on the source"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida confidently, noting his athleticism, wrestling, and grappling are far superior. Abdurakhimov is shop-worn, lacks durability, and is too passive. Almeida should get a takedown and dominate.

Fight doesn't go to decision -1200, Almeida inside distance -550, Almeida by submission -165
"You just have to assume that an athlete like Almeida can literally fumble his way through that dangerous range, eat whatever he's got to eat, get his hands on Shamil and ragdoll him."
Serghei Spivac - Fight History
WIN vs Ante Delija
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 67 of 149 44% 102 of 185 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:00
Ante Delija 0 61 of 172 35% 61 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 20 of 46 43% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ante Delija 0 19 of 58 32% 19 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 20 of 41 48% 34 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Ante Delija 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Serghei Spivac 0 27 of 62 43% 48 of 84 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:52
Ante Delija 0 16 of 51 31% 16 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 67 of 149 44% 65 of 145 1 of 3 1 of 1 67 of 148 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ante Delija 61 of 172 35% 56 of 166 5 of 6 0 of 0 58 of 168 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 20 of 46 43% 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ante Delija 19 of 58 32% 17 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 20 of 41 48% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ante Delija 26 of 63 41% 25 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0 23 of 59 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 27 of 62 43% 25 of 60 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ante Delija 16 of 51 31% 14 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Angelo picks Ante Delija, believing his size, wrestling, and pressure will stifle Serghei Spivac's takedowns. He notes Spivac struggles against athletic pressure and Delija is the better wrestler. He is slightly worried about Delija's chin but thinks Spivac lacks knockout power.

"Ante Delija is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Big Brady picks Ante Delija to defeat Serghei Spivak, citing Spivak's poor durability and Delija's well-rounded skills. He notes Spivak's wins have aged poorly and that he was knocked out by Jailton Almeida, which is embarrassing. He believes Delija can stuff takedowns and then destroy Spivak on the feet, predicting a first-round knockout. He references Delija's performance against Marcin Tybura where he stuffed all takedowns and finished early.

Ante Delija by first-round knockout
"I got to go De Lima here. I think De Lima wins this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody is chasing plus money on Spivac, noting Delija's poor gas tank and chin issues. He thinks if Delija doesn't get an early KO, Spivac's grappling and cardio will take over. He admits it's a low-confidence play but likes the value.

"I got to take a dog shot on Spac. I do have a lot of favorites on this card, but Eay and Spac are two guys I think that are very capable of performing."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Connor picks Delija because he believes Delija's explosive, aggressive style will overwhelm Spivak, who is slow and has poor defense. He notes that Delija is a glass cannon but that Spivak's chin is also questionable, and that Delija's size and power should be enough to finish early. He also points out that Spivak's game relies on clinch takedowns, which Delija's size can neutralize.

Delija opened +105, now -135; Spivak opened +160, now +115; Connor thinks the line should be dead even
"I'm gonna take Delia. Same. Yep, Spivak is slow in every metric. Slow hands, slow feet. No defense, not a great chin for a heavyweight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)

The host believes Delija is better in all aspects and has a clear stylistic advantage, but the odds (-181) do not offer value. He cannot confidently give Delija a 70% win probability required for value, so he passes on betting.

"For me the only problem I have with betting Deija in this fight is the odds. In order to get any value on Elijah at all, you'd have to give him around a 70% chance of winning. And even though …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ante Delija

James leans toward Ante Delija via first-round KO, citing Delija's early power and aggression. He notes that Spivac can be hurt early and that Delija has more finishing upside in the first round. However, he acknowledges Spivac's grappling advantage if the fight goes longer, and he is not fully confident due to Delija's questionable chin and the weird nature of the fight.

under 1.5 rounds (lean)
"My prediction will be Ante Dia via KO in round one and it will be a lean to the under one and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Delija is a much better striker with good defensive wrestling. Spivac needs to get fights to the ground to win, but Delija should be able to stuff takedowns and force a striking match. Spivac has lost to athletic strikers before. Delija will walk him down and land big shots, likely a TKO in the first round. The line dropping is a gift.

"I think Dia wins and I think he makes it look quite one-sided as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul has no conviction on this fight, calling it a coin flip. He notes Delija's power and Spivac's grappling but doesn't see a clear edge. He prefers to avoid betting it.

"Yeah, I have like next to no conviction on this fight whatsoever."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The MMA Guru picks Ante Delija by decision, believing he will be sharper at range with low kicks. He notes Delija's good cage defense and three-round experience. He thinks Spivac is slower and less athletic, and that Delija can avoid being out-grappled.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go with Ante getting this one done by 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Delija's one-dimensional but effective style works well at heavyweight. He points out that Spivak is slow and upright, and that Delija's fast hands and straight punches can catch him. He also mentions that Delija's losses come when he gets hurt, but Spivak is not a big puncher, so Delija should be safe to swarm.

"Yep, delia does one thing and lucky for him, this is heavyweight. So that one thing will work more than 50% of the time."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 48 of 119 40% 53 of 124 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:25
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 110 of 235 46% 111 of 236 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 36 38% 17 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:36
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 59 45% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Serghei Spivac 0 16 of 41 39% 18 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 47 of 99 47% 47 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 48 of 119 40% 39 of 109 4 of 5 5 of 5 45 of 115 3 of 4 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 110 of 235 46% 76 of 196 16 of 20 18 of 19 105 of 225 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 36 38% 11 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 59 45% 12 of 41 8 of 11 7 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 18 of 42 42% 12 of 35 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 36 of 77 46% 21 of 62 7 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 47 of 99 47% 43 of 93 1 of 2 3 of 4 46 of 95 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Serghei Spivac
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivac (-148), Cortes-Acosta (+124)

Round 1
Mike Beltran is once again the referee. Spivac opens the round with a strong jab and then misses an overhand right. Cortes-Acosta eats a right hand and then a head kick. Spivac is very aggressive early. Nice leg kick lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta throws a left hook, but it comes up very short. Spivac catches a low kick and clinches with Cortes-Acosta. Spivac goes to the body with left hands. Cortes-Acosta is trying to circle out but can't free himself of the clinch. They finally break. Cortes-Acosta resets after eating a jab and then lands a big right hand. Spivac is walking down Cortes-Acosta and keeping him against the cage. The two heavyweights trade jabs. Cortes-Acosta throws a front kick up the middle and then a leg kick. Spivac ends the round defending well as Cortes-Acosta gets more aggressive.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac

Round 2
Spivac once again takes the center of the cage. A big overhand right connects for Cortes-Acosta, who then throws hard to the body. Despite losing the first round, Cortes-Acosta is finding his confidence inside the cage. Spivac is much less active this round. Spivac's jabs are landing. The two trade hooks, with Spivac landing. Hard leg kicks from Cortes-Acosta, who has the more varied attack. Spivac clinches but can't keep him there. Cortes-Acosta's shorts just ripped, but it isn't impacting the action. Cortes-Acosta lands another leg kick, but that allows Spivac to charge forward with a takedown attempt. Cortes-Acosta stays on his feet and then lands a 1-2. Spivac answers back with a high kick that doesn't quite land. Cortes-Acosta is jabbing and going to the body with his punches. Spivac looks to be slowing down as he's unable to match the volume of punches of Cortes-Acosta. 30 seconds left. The two trade jabs. A nice jab to the body by Cortes-Acosta. The round ends with Cortes-Acosta landing a hook to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta gets a new pair of shorts on between rounds, so that crisis is averted. Cortes-Acosta is working his jab well. A huge overhand right hand lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta pretends to be totally dazed by the punch, which glances off the side of his head, but Spivac doesn't bite. Cortes-Acosta tries to catch Spivac but eats a big elbow instead. Spivac has the momentum with three minutes left. A nice step-in knee for Cortes-Acosta. Spivac misses with a high kick and then looks to clinch. Cortes-Acosta slips out and answers with a 1-2 combination. Two minutes left. Spivac throws a big right hand, but he's being peppered away at by Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta is showing some fatigue, as he isn't throwing back after slipping punches like he was earlier. Spivac goes for another takedown and picks up Cortes-Acosta. However, Cortes-Acosta gets back to his feet before Spivac can take advantage of the situation. Spivac is eating jabs while whiffing overhand rights. A big straight right lands for Spivac right before the round expires, but it might be too little, too late.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as an underdog, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and improvements since his loss to Del Lima. He thinks Spivac is unathletic and lumbering, and Waldo's foot movement and power will be too much. He bet half a unit on Waldo because he likes betting dogs at that stake.

Bet half a unit on Waldo as a dog.
"I threw a half a unit on him as a bet cuz when I bet dogs, I only do a half a unit instead of a full."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that when Spivac is on, he ragdolls opponents, but when he faces adversity, he folds. He thinks Spivac should be able to take down Cortes Acosta, who has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and that Spivac can finish by submission or TKO. He predicts a second-round submission but says he probably won't bet it because of the risk.

Spivac by submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Spac, but my concern and and why I probably won't be betting him here is because there is a chance he shows up and it looks like he doesn't want to be there and he gets …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 6, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Connor also picks Spivak with the same reservations, noting the fight is a coin flip based on Spivak's first takedown. He thinks Spivak has the grappling advantage but could put himself in a losing position. Connor sees Acosta as a non-factor who wins by being there, but Spivak might beat himself.

"I'm taking Spivak as well, but with exactly the same reservations."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivac is expected to deal with Acosta's striking, take the fight to the ground, and keep Acosta on his back until a submission opportunity opens. The pick is for Spivac to win by submission.

win by submission
"I fully expect Spac to deal with Aosta's striking, eventually take this fight to the ground, keeping Cortez Aosta on his back until that submission opportunity opens itself, giving Spac the win by submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac, believing his grappling will be the edge. He notes Spivac had moments against Jailton Almeida and submitted Marcin Tybura. He worries about Spivac's striking but thinks he can take Waldo down and finish by submission or TKO in the first two rounds. He acknowledges Waldo could win again but trusts Spivac's grappling.

Finish prediction: first round submission or second round TKO. Fight not going past two rounds.
"I'm going to go Sergey Spivac. I'm going to say that Sergey Spivac is going to get his grappling off here and be able to submit Waldo Cortez A Costa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 6, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Zane picks Spivac but with reservations, noting the fight hinges on Spivac's first takedown attempt. He thinks Spivac's plan is to clinch and wrestle, but if he fails, he could get flattened. Zane compares to Marco's takedowns on Acosta, suggesting Spivac can replicate them, but acknowledges Acosta's athleticism and Spivac's tendency to beat himself.

"I'm gonna take Sergei Spivak but kids I know he has a plan and I know what that plan looks like."
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
TKO (punches) R1 4:53 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.

Parlay with Zachary Reese suggested.
"I absolutely think he wins this fight I don't know what s bvx going to do he's not going to defend the take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.

Almeida is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay. No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think gelel M has got the skill here honestly in all the fights that we've seen him in at this level... he's taking down his opponent and all of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says he is passing on betting due to the -420 price. He mentions Almeida's takedown ability and Spivac's lack of wrestling.
"I'll pick him as well but I'm passing betting wise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.

TKO stoppage
"I expect him to go out there and do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov grab the body lock find a trip get that top position against speac and smash him until he eventually gets that TKO stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think that there's a massive grappling disparity here and I think gon's the the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.

decision
"I am going to go with Jon Al MAA to beat Sergey spivac I reckon he will win a decision"
WIN vs Marcin Tybura
Submission (armbar) R1 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.

Likely no money on this fight; age difference a concern
"I think Tor wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.

"I'm going to agree it's a dogger pass main event for me as well it's not like there's huge dog money on marcine Toro but you got a guy that won the previous matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.

Tybura by decision; over 2.5 rounds (or over 3.5 rounds) at even money
"I still think he's the better overall fighter in this spot better Striker can compete in the wrestling in my opinion maybe the better pure BJJ specialist probably the better cardio so it's kind of surprising to see him as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.

"I took some Plus 138 on Tuesday Cody cuz I just think tor's got better standup submission grappling may be an edge there speac really lays on the wrestling on a lot of people is he able to you know …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.

"I'm gonna go with Martin toura over Sergey spivac I don't think toura can be finished on the ground and their first fight toura one"
LOSS vs Ciryl Gane
TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 109 of 156 69% 110 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 51 of 69 73% 52 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Ciryl Gane 0 58 of 87 66% 58 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Serghei Spivac 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 109 of 156 69% 48 of 85 39 of 49 22 of 22 105 of 152 4 of 4 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 11 of 44 25% 7 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 51 of 69 73% 19 of 32 19 of 24 13 of 13 50 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 7 of 26 26% 5 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 58 of 87 66% 29 of 53 20 of 25 9 of 9 55 of 84 3 of 3 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-166), Spivak (+140)

Round 1
It’s heavyweight time. In the main attraction, with 25 minutes or less to get things done, former interim champ Gane (11-2, 8-2 UFC) wants to give home country fans something to cheer about in a big way. Standing across from him will be Spivak (16-3, 7-3 UFC), a veritable polar bear that has developed into a serious contender. In this classic striker vs. grappler contest, anything could happen. Referee Marc Goddard will be here for it. The respect is ample as the big men bump their fists together, and away we go. Spivak moves right to the center of the cage, and Gane keeps his hands low and circles around him. Gane splits the guard with a quick jab, and he pushes out with a front kick. Spivak responds with a body kick, and Gane switches stances and paws out with a leg kick. Gane snipes with a jab, and he dips a looping right hand that slides past his shoulder. Gane hand-fights when Spivak gets close, and he jabs the midsection. Spivak attempts a takedown, and Gane pushes both of his hands on the back of Spivak’s head to stop it in its tracks. Gane picks away with front kicks to the body and jabs, and Spivak is already not having a great time in there. Biting down on his mouthpiece, Spivak closes the distance and tags Gane with a right hand. Spivak sells out for a charging takedown, and Gane expertly sprawls, allows Spivak to stand back up, and knees him square in the liver. Gane targets all areas with impunity, and both men snap the other’s head back with power jabs. Gane works the body and goes up top when places open up. Gane continues to do work and evade a few looping strikes, and a jab makes Spivak blink it out repeatedly. The continued jabs from Gane bloody up the nose, and his chipping leg kicks are having an impact as well. Gane digs two hands to the body, and he ducks the overhand right counter with ease. Gane styles on Spivak with distant strikes, and his range is such that Spivak cannot touch him back. Gane doubles up on a jab and pushes out a right hand, and he chains a high kick that slaps into the guard. Spivak lumbers forward, and Gane dances around while scoring three jabs and a right hand to conclude the fairly one-sided round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to get started again, and Gane instantly enters cruising altitude with frustrating leg kicks, jabs and other distance-keeping strikes. Spivak looks to catch one low kick and crash the pocket with an overhand right, and Gane parries him aside without allowing the takedown to materialize. Gane confidently stays seemingly right in front of his opponent, landing shots to anywhere he sees fit, and Spivak is tough but not offering much back effectively. Gane dips to his side, and Spivak times a clean left hook. Gane responds by putting some pop into his shots, and he makes Spivak shell up momentarily to protect from further harm. The Frenchman springs back and forth, ducking a right hook and jabbing the body with his toes outstretched when eh resets. Gane strings punches up top to a few to the body, and he steps in with a knee to the breadbasket for good measure. Gane keeps working the body brilliantly, and he steps in with a vertical elbow and a right hand to follow it. Gane digs his shin to the liver, and he leans back right as Spivak is about to counter him. Gane finds a right hand right on the target with odd timing on it, and Spivak reels and bounces off the fencing. Gane blasts the body again and again, and one knee bends the Moldovan over in pain. Spivak recovers, but he is getting picked apart. Spivak is offering nothing back, and Gane lays into him with his punishing fists. Spivak leans over and a few blows bounce off the back of his head, but Gane keeps right on clubbing him without any concern of reprisal.
The strikes do not stop coming from Gane, and he pushes Spivak back to the fence and unloads with punches, hammerfists, tomahawk arcing fists and anything else he feels like drilling Spivak with. As Goddard watches closely, Spivak’s balance nearly betrays him. Before Spivak hits the ground in defeat, Goddard leaps in between the two to cease the dominant beating courtesy of the Frenchman.
Gane is all smiles as the crowd erupts in celebration of his triumph and the others from earlier, with French combatants tonight performing swimmingly – of the seven from this country against foreign opponents, six emerged victorious. The promotion is prepared for the end result, placing heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall in the crowd as the likely next test. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Sergey Spivak R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.

half unit at +145
"I do think Spivak can win I have a half a unit bet on him at plus 145"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.

Spivac wins by first-round submission
"I like speed vac to close distance get the fight down to the mat and dominate Cyril gone and finish him in the first round... give me a circus be back I'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.

Spivac by submission +500 (best available)
"I think we have a live Underdog here... Spivak at plus 140. I'm interested."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.

Gane inside the distance; moneyline recommended because if the Jones fight never happened he'd be -270
"I think so Rogan's gonna win I think he's probably gonna hurt him uh to the body and then finish him"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I bet him about Monday quite a while ago now... I am a little bit less confident than I once was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

fight doesn't go to decision (minus 350/400), plus money on Spivac
"I'm gonna lean with the grappler you know it's hard for me to really get on the serial God train especially at chalk when he's going up against a legit Grappler until we see those legitimate improvements made in his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.

Live bet on Gane if he loses first round(s)
"I am going to bet thrill gone... the best way to approach this as a gone better would be the live BET."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.

"I'm going Cyril gone first or second round TKO that's what I'm gonna go with"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derrick Lewis 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 54 6 of 8 75% 1 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derrick Lewis 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 54 6 of 8 75% 1 0 2:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 18
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivak (-230), Lewis (+195)

Round 1
The heavyweight main event is set to go, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. Both big men are in orthodox stance. Spivak inches forward with feints, and when Lewis steps in to throw, Spivak uses a beautiful scarf throw to put him down. Spivak is in side control, looking for a choke, then moves to the back and throws heavy punches. Goddard looks on, giving Lewis time to work, and Lewis stands back up, only to be hurled down again. Lewis gets back to his feet and Spivak throws him again, with Lewis landing right on his head. Lewis gets back up and Spivak repeats the cycle yet once more. This time, Spivak tries for an arm-triangle and gets it with minimal resistance. He squeezes and Lewis taps. Complete domination on the ground by Sergey Spivak.

The Official Result
Sergey Spivak def. Derrick Lewis R1 3:05 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.

third round submission
"I'll take speedvac to win by third round submission here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.

Spivac over 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks); Spivac inside the distance; Spivac by submission (+360)
"I still like speed vac to win the price at minus 225 seems about right to me... I feel like more often than not like 70 of the time the speed vac is able to take him down... and probably …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.

"I'll pick Derek Lewis along with you still. I guess I came in prepared to pick Spivak just for the gut feeling... but I will go this will be the last ride."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.

Spivac by submission
"I'm going to agree man honestly the line opened up minus 180 two days ago I got it at -190... I think speedback probably locks It Up by submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.

"I'm still concerned. I'll pick Derek Lewis along with you still. I guess I came in prepared to pick Spivak just for the gut feeling... but it is not the kind of game that has ever beat Derek Lewis."
WIN vs Augusto Sakai
TKO (punches) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 8 of 23 34% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 33 of 49 67% 86 of 119 6 of 8 75% 1 0 6:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 10 of 13 76% 36 of 43 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:09
2 Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 23 of 36 63% 50 of 76 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 8 of 23 34% 1 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 17 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 24 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 7 of 11 63% 1 of 5 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Serghei Spivac 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line bet on sergey speak back in this fight
"I see spivak getting takedowns and will win with a potential stoppage because sakai off his back has no movement and he just takes whatever you give him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.

second round finish prediction (TKO or submission)
"i'll go speed back to win and buy like a second round like a second round tk or submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.

Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"My gut instinct is Spivac is going to eventually take him down... put a mauling on him... gotta go with Sergey Spivak."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.

"I see it as a dog or pass situation I guess pure pick I'll go Spivac just because the momentum's on his side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.

Sakai by knockout (looking for +500 or better); Sakai inside the distance at +350
"Sakai will be my pick... Sakai by knockout... I see Sakai inside the distance at plus 350."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.

"i'm going to be going with sergey spivak... i think he's a great fighter... i feel as though sergey spivak is going to get this one done by decision at 29 28"
WIN vs Greg Hardy
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:21
Greg Hardy 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:21
Greg Hardy 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 20
Greg Hardy 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 20
Greg Hardy 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Spivac but says he wouldn't bet the fight due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Spivac needs to wrestle early and often, and that Hardy has power but poor grappling. He mentions Spivac had trouble with Oleinik but chalks it up to fear of the ground. He expects Spivac to shoot immediately.

would not bet this fight
"spivak is the pick but he needs to start diving at legs immediately after the glove touch i would not bet this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Big Brady picks Greg Hardy to win by first-round knockout. He is not high on Spivac, noting that Spivac often waits too long to shoot takedowns and has poor striking defense. Brady acknowledges Hardy's power and good takedown defense early, but admits Hardy's ground game is weak. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Spivac gets it to the mat, he wins; if not, Hardy knocks him out. Brady leans toward Hardy because he doubts Spivac's game plan.

Hardy by first-round knockout
"i'm actually going to take the dog here with greg hardy i know a lot of people are going to be upset with that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody does not have a strong lean on this fight. He acknowledges Hardy's early power and finishing ability but notes his cardio and grappling holes. He suggests a live betting opportunity if Spivac takes Hardy down early, but he has no interest in betting the fight outright.

Live betting: Spivac inside the distance if he dominates round 1 on top
"i have no interest in betting that fight to be perfectly honest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Serghei Spivac via ground and pound TKO. He believes Spivac will take Hardy down and dominate on the ground, as Hardy has nothing off his back and gasses out. He notes that Spivac doesn't like getting hit but should avoid striking exchanges. He criticizes Hardy's mental toughness and cardio, citing the inhaler incident and recent losses.

"i'm going sergey spivak via ground and pound tko"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivak is a big heavyweight who should dominate Hardy on the ground. Hardy gasses and gives up when taken down, as seen in the Tai Tuivasa fight. Spivak can take Hardy down, wear on him, and finish with a submission or ground and pound. The line should be closer to -300. Hardy's only chance is an early KO, but Spivak can survive the first round and take over.

Spivak wins inside the distance (round 2 submission)
"i like speedvac i'll likely have to be back inside the distance um yeah that this this is a squash match if honestly if i've ever seen one spivak should absolutely cruise here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Paul sees this as closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest. He notes Hardy's early power and nearly finishing Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura, but acknowledges his cardio and grappling deficiencies. Paul thinks Hardy could finish Spivac early, but if not, Spivac will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and leans Hardy as a live underdog.

"this is closer to 50 50 dude so again there's going to be dogs on this card that hit i think this is a chance for one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

The MMA Guru picks Greg Hardy as an underdog over Serghei Spivac, despite acknowledging Spivac's grappling advantage. He believes Hardy's explosiveness and power will catch Spivac early, as Spivac is poor on the feet in the first round. He notes Hardy prepared for Aleksei Oleinik and Spivac stepped in on short notice, and that Spivac is coming off a KO loss. He predicts a first-round KO for Hardy.

underdog pick, odds comment: 'almost two to one'
"i'm going to take greg hardy as an underdog against spivak"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.

Parlay with Zachary Reese suggested.
"I absolutely think he wins this fight I don't know what s bvx going to do he's not going to defend the take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.

Almeida is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay. No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think gelel M has got the skill here honestly in all the fights that we've seen him in at this level... he's taking down his opponent and all of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says he is passing on betting due to the -420 price. He mentions Almeida's takedown ability and Spivac's lack of wrestling.
"I'll pick him as well but I'm passing betting wise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.

TKO stoppage
"I expect him to go out there and do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov grab the body lock find a trip get that top position against speac and smash him until he eventually gets that TKO stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think that there's a massive grappling disparity here and I think gon's the the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.

decision
"I am going to go with Jon Al MAA to beat Sergey spivac I reckon he will win a decision"