UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Merab Dvalishvili
4.42 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.8 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
5.97 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Umar Nurmagomedov
3.86 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
1.86 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
4.03 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Merab Dvalishvili - Fight History
LOSS vs Petr Yan
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 134 of 383 34% 196 of 458 2 of 29 6% 2 1 5:12
Petr Yan 0 139 of 230 60% 159 of 251 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 22 of 68 32% 40 of 87 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:33
Petr Yan 0 17 of 32 53% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 19 of 73 26% 41 of 97 0 of 5 0% 0 1 2:06
Petr Yan 0 21 of 34 61% 25 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 62 33% 32 of 77 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:07
Petr Yan 0 25 of 46 54% 33 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 37 of 71 52% 43 of 80 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:15
Petr Yan 0 38 of 55 69% 40 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 35 of 109 32% 40 of 117 0 of 5 0% 1 0 0:11
Petr Yan 0 38 of 63 60% 38 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 134 of 383 34% 105 of 341 22 of 34 7 of 8 116 of 353 18 of 30 0 of 0
Petr Yan 139 of 230 60% 109 of 195 17 of 19 13 of 16 119 of 204 18 of 24 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 22 of 68 32% 16 of 60 4 of 6 2 of 2 18 of 63 4 of 5 0 of 0
Petr Yan 17 of 32 53% 15 of 30 1 of 1 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 19 of 73 26% 19 of 71 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 21 of 34 61% 18 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 21 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 62 33% 18 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 52 6 of 10 0 of 0
Petr Yan 25 of 46 54% 20 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 34 7 of 10 2 of 2
4 Merab Dvalishvili 37 of 71 52% 28 of 60 7 of 8 2 of 3 34 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 55 69% 28 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 5 32 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 35 of 109 32% 24 of 93 8 of 13 3 of 3 32 of 102 3 of 7 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 63 60% 28 of 50 4 of 5 6 of 8 33 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his insane pace, cardio, and improvement since the first fight. He questions what has changed for Petr Yan to win the rematch, noting that Merab dominated the first fight with 11 takedowns. He believes Merab's pressure and takedowns will be too much for Yan again, and he is surprised the odds are only -450.

"I'm on the Morab side. I think the insane pressure, the insane cardio, all the things that have him nicknamed the machine have him win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting his dominant performance in the first fight. He acknowledges Yan may have been compromised but still favors Dvalishvili's wrestling and pace. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, as he always does.

Dvalishvili by decision
"I'm going to take Morad Deval Philly to win this fight how he always wins fights and that is going to be by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody is fully behind Merab, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He notes that Merab took Yan down 11 times in their first fight and has since dominated Olympic gold medalist Cejudo and Umar. He believes Merab will again win by decision, as Yan is durable and hard to finish. He mentions the decision prop at minus 300 but prefers the money line.

"Morab does what Morab does. And frankly, this is like such a lame kind of breakdown, I suppose, from me, but it's like until I'm going to just keep putting money on Morab."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor argues that Merab has only improved since their first fight, becoming a more purposeful striker who uses takedown threats effectively. He notes that Petr Yan has lost the aggressive instinct that once allowed him to change fights with single shots, and now fights more cautiously, which plays into Merab's relentless pace. Connor believes Yan's multi-stage game can be disrupted by Merab's constant pressure, making it hard for Yan to build initiative. He concludes that while Yan has the power to win, it's a lot to gamble on.

Odds: Merab opened -260, now -415; Yan opened +220, now +315. Notes that Yan hasn't stopped anyone in 5 years and hasn't scored a knockdown since the Sandhagen fight.
"You have to pick Merab. High-level fight. Meaningful."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel believes Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Petr Yan, who tends to take rounds off to make reads. He notes Merab's improvements since their first fight, including 20 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen. Daniel doubts Yan can bridge the output gap and sees Merab as the clear best bantamweight. He mentions the fight is a pass for betting due to poor odds on Merab.

"I'm picking Morab in this spot, man. I really am."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Lucrative James acknowledges Merab's dominance but believes the betting line of -450 is too wide. He notes Petr Yan was likely injured in the first fight and has had time to recover. He thinks Yan can compete in minutes and moments, potentially squeaking out a decision win. He emphasizes value betting and picks Yan at +350 odds.

"I'm going to go out and say that Peter Yan is the betting pick for this show for me for this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host notes that Dvalishvili won the first fight easily as a +250 underdog and is now a -450 favorite for good reason. He expects Yan to be more aggressive but believes Dvalishvili's pace, pressure, and activity will make it hard for Yan to land impactful shots, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

win by decision; odds comment: plus 250 underdog first fight, now minus 450 favorite
"Jan might be a little bit more aggressive this time around but I think Dvalish Philly will make it hard for Yan to land an impactful enough shot... win this fight on the scorecards and still bantamweight champion."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Merab's wrestling and decision victory. He points out that Yan has lost rounds to lesser fighters like Song Dong and Marcus McGhee, while Merab has only improved. He notes that Yan is a slow starter and Merab's pressure negates his striking combinations. He concludes that Merab by decision is the play.

"He got 50-45 to cross the board on all three judges scorecards. On top of that, he got taken down 11 times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan, despite the wide odds. He notes Merab's relentless takedown volume and cardio will overwhelm Yan, though Yan will have moments. The Guru predicts a 48-47 decision for Merab.

"I've got Morab 48 47, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Merab's style heavily favors him. He points out that Yan's game relies on building initiative through counter-punching and then pressuring, but Merab never allows that foothold. Zane notes that even when Yan defends takedowns well, Merab's constant attacks prevent Yan from establishing his own offense. He highlights that Yan's last three fights show a loss of confidence and aggression, making it unlikely he can replicate the moments of violence that defined his prime.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"It's really hard to see a version of this where Merab just doesn't get..."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 114 of 265 43% 243 of 399 20 of 37 54% 0 0 10:02
Cory Sandhagen 0 80 of 184 43% 149 of 257 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 46 23% 32 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:52
Cory Sandhagen 0 27 of 53 50% 58 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 33 of 49 67% 73 of 92 8 of 13 61% 0 0 3:43
Cory Sandhagen 0 2 of 9 22% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 48 31% 46 of 80 3 of 8 37% 0 0 1:57
Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 35 40% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 56 37% 31 of 66 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:26
Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 66 51% 61 of 94 6 of 8 75% 0 0 2:04
Cory Sandhagen 0 18 of 44 40% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 114 of 265 43% 86 of 231 13 of 18 15 of 16 79 of 220 22 of 27 13 of 18
Cory Sandhagen 80 of 184 43% 46 of 143 18 of 23 16 of 18 80 of 184 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 46 23% 9 of 42 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 27 of 53 50% 14 of 39 4 of 4 9 of 10 27 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 16 of 25 8 of 10 9 of 14
Cory Sandhagen 2 of 9 22% 1 of 6 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 48 31% 12 of 44 1 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 14 of 35 40% 7 of 28 4 of 4 3 of 3 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 56 37% 9 of 42 5 of 6 7 of 8 17 of 52 4 of 4 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 19 of 43 44% 12 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 66 51% 23 of 54 7 of 8 4 of 4 23 of 53 7 of 9 4 of 4
Cory Sandhagen 18 of 44 40% 12 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, acknowledging that Cory Sandhagen is a tough matchup with good skills everywhere. He believes Merab's non-stop chain wrestling and cardio are his biggest weapons, and that Sandhagen is better than Sean O'Malley but still likely to lose. He notes that Sandhagen's cardio slowed against Umar, and that Merab's pressure will be overwhelming.

"Morab's going to be the pick, but I'm not dismissing Cory Sanhagen's ability to make this an ugly fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady thinks the fight will be competitive but clear in favor of Dvalishvili. He notes that Sandhagen has advantages in height, reach, and striking, but Dvalishvili's wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place will be key. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, possibly 49-46 or 48-47. He does not like the line but is not picking against Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
"I like Morav to get it done. I just I just really don't like the line. But give me Rob by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor picks Dvalishvili, agreeing with Zane that Sandhagen's physicality is a major concern. He highlights that Sandhagen's best path is to pressure Merab and keep him on the back foot, but even then, Merab's wrestling and durability make it hard to win a decision. Connor also notes that Sandhagen lacks finishing power at the highest level, making it unlikely he stops Merab.

"Yeah, you really do. So yeah, I'm glad they made this fight. I don't think it'll be boring, but I just do not at my core believe that Corey Sandhagen can go out there and fight a busy fight without …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host expects a classic Dvalishvili performance with takedowns and control time, possibly threatening submissions, but Sandhagen will be too slippery to catch, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

"I think we'll see a classic Dvalishvili performance here where he will get his takedowns, he'll get his control time... I think Sandhagen will be too slimy to catch in anything of substance and that will lead to Dvalishvili winning …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his relentless pace, takedowns, and improving striking. He notes Cory Sandhagen's lack of finishing ability and tendency to leave fights close. He predicts a 49-46 or 48-47 decision.

"I'm going with Merab. Sandhagen's good. I think he'll do better than O'Malley in the rematch. We're looking at a decision here. 48-47, 49-46 Merab."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Dvalishvili because he believes Sandhagen lacks the physicality to consistently win scrambles and wrestling exchanges against Merab. He notes that Sandhagen has struggled against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and that Merab's endless cardio and improved striking make him a nightmare matchup. Zane also points out that even if Sandhagen has a good round or two, he is unlikely to finish Merab and will likely be worn down over five rounds.

"I just cannot fundamentally believe that Corey Sandhagen has the physicality at a very raw base level to tie up with Marabh Dvala Shavili all the time."
WIN vs Sean O'Malley
Submission R3 4:42 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 52 of 115 45% 141 of 215 5 of 12 41% 1 0 6:29
Sean O'Malley 0 31 of 57 54% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 17 of 37 45% 48 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:54
Sean O'Malley 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 23 of 63 36% 24 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Sean O'Malley 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 15 80% 69 of 79 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:18
Sean O'Malley 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 52 of 115 45% 33 of 92 13 of 14 6 of 9 29 of 86 8 of 10 15 of 19
Sean O'Malley 31 of 57 54% 14 of 35 15 of 19 2 of 3 30 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 17 of 37 45% 10 of 30 7 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 27 3 of 3 5 of 7
Sean O'Malley 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 23 of 63 36% 18 of 54 1 of 2 4 of 7 20 of 58 3 of 5 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 19 of 33 57% 9 of 19 9 of 12 1 of 2 19 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 15 80% 5 of 8 5 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 12
Sean O'Malley 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo believes the first fight was a clear win for Merab, not close as some recall. He thinks Sean's camp is already making excuses by calling Merab the GOAT. He sees no significant improvements from Sean and expects the same pressure wrestling and cardio to overwhelm Sean again. He dismisses concerns about Merab's toe injury as irrelevant.

Odds at 3 to 1 feel like a gift.
"Morav Dishley is going to be the pick. I'm not worried about the toe nonsense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili but is very hesitant. He believes Merab should win easily based on his wrestling, but worries about corrupt judges giving rounds to O'Malley if the fight is close. He notes that O'Malley was compromised in the first fight and that the UFC wants O'Malley to win. He ultimately goes with his gut that Merab gets it done by decision, but hates the price tag and suggests O'Malley plus 5.5 might be a good look.

O'Malley +5.5 mentioned as a good look
"I'll take Morab to win this fight by decision because I think he wins the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Merab. He emphasizes that O'Malley's instinctual reactions in wrestling are a deep-seated issue that will be hard to overcome. Connor notes that O'Malley's go-to defense of giving up his back and handfighting works against lesser wrestlers but is suicide against Merab. He thinks O'Malley can improve but still loses.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Connor is surprised the line is not wider.
"I got to pick Marab still."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high pressure, high pace, and insane cardio are too much for most opponents. Even if O'Malley learned from their first matchup, he won't be able to set up his traps or striking wizardry. Dvalishvili will control the fight, grind it out, and win on the scorecards to remain champion.

"Dvalesh Philly is just too much for a lot of his opponents and not many guys are able to deal with this high pressure high pace and just insane cardio style... allowing Dvalis Philly to control fights as he always …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by TKO or decision, citing adjustments and O'Malley's freshness. He believes the first fight was close and O'Malley can improve his takedown defense. He notes Merab's activity and lack of motivation, and thinks O'Malley's striking will be the difference. He predicts O'Malley wins rounds 1, 3, and 5, and possibly gets a TKO in the second or third round. He also mentions potential judging favoritism for O'Malley.

Odds comment: +260 is great value. Finish prediction: TKO in second or third round, or decision win.
"I'm feeling a Shaun Ali upset TKO finish over Morab Dealin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting that O'Malley's wrestling defense is fundamentally flawed against Merab's relentless pressure. He believes O'Malley will be better prepared but still expects Merab to force him into a defensive shell and win via pace and takedowns. Zane references the Umar fight as evidence that Merab can be pushed but still wins.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Zane is surprised the line is not wider, expecting Merab around -400.
"I got to pick Marab still."
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 111 of 259 42% 142 of 293 7 of 30 23% 0 0 2:22
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 104 of 237 43% 113 of 246 2 of 15 13% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 49 40% 27 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 25 of 47 53% 26 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:48
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 54 38% 25 of 58 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 48 45% 25 of 51 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:43
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 36 of 70 51% 48 of 82 4 of 9 44% 0 0 1:05
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 21 of 47 44% 26 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 39 35% 21 of 47 2 of 12 16% 0 0 0:53
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 111 of 259 42% 71 of 207 30 of 37 10 of 15 88 of 219 22 of 37 1 of 3
Umar Nurmagomedov 104 of 237 43% 76 of 199 22 of 30 6 of 8 92 of 219 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 47 42% 10 of 35 6 of 6 4 of 6 13 of 39 7 of 8 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 49 36% 11 of 38 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 7 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 38 5 of 10 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 38 6 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 54 38% 14 of 43 5 of 7 2 of 4 17 of 49 3 of 4 1 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 48 45% 17 of 40 2 of 3 3 of 5 20 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 36 of 70 51% 25 of 57 10 of 12 1 of 1 31 of 58 5 of 11 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 21 of 47 44% 18 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 39 35% 10 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 46 39% 12 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

"Umar is going to be the pick I will kind of warn you here minus 325 I mean it's a bit disrespectful to morab"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Mentions he took Merab at +175 earlier and is surprised at the line movement. No specific prop bet.
"I think it's a little bit too much too much Steam on the the Naga mov side here the dogger pass situation for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Odds opened at -246, now -338; Merab opened +211, now +280. Connor thinks the line is too wide in Umar's favor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Daniel says he is not betting on this fight, calling it a pass. He mentions that Umar is favored at -350 and Merab at +275.
"I'm actually going to go with Umar to be the new UFC bantamweight champion but from a betting perspective I can understand why someone would call this a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

May look at a point spread for Merab to win one or two rounds
"I'm gonna say um magedov becomes Champion I've believed in him from when he had his UFC debut"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

"I think nag gamov will do a good job in terms of stifling the high activity game of dval stopping the takedowns Landing the better output maybe even Landing big enough shots to knock down dval fi but I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

Mentions that if Umar can mix in his own offensive wrestling and take Merab down, it changes the dynamic. No specific prop.
"I eventually ended up on the Nam magov side yeah that's fair"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

TKO round 2-3
"I think umar's going to get a question mark kick KO over morab deash that's my prediction I think he'll finish him in round two or three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
WIN vs Sean O'Malley
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 47 of 89 52% 49 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 82 of 164 50% 214 of 310 6 of 15 40% 0 0 10:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 16 of 30 53% 25 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 18 of 38 47% 65 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 17 of 38 44% 25 of 46 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:52
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 6 of 9 66% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 21 of 32 65% 74 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 10 of 26 38% 25 of 42 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 47 of 89 52% 22 of 48 23 of 39 2 of 2 45 of 85 0 of 1 2 of 3
Sean O'Malley 82 of 164 50% 55 of 130 4 of 6 23 of 28 29 of 85 8 of 14 45 of 65
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 28 50% 6 of 16 6 of 10 2 of 2 14 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 16 of 30 53% 13 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 5 6 of 7
2 Merab Dvalishvili 5 of 10 50% 3 of 5 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 18 of 38 47% 14 of 33 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 31
3 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 7 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 17 of 38 44% 6 of 24 2 of 2 9 of 12 11 of 29 5 of 8 1 of 1
4 Merab Dvalishvili 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 21 of 32 65% 20 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 15 of 19
5 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 2 of 8 9 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 1
Sean O'Malley 10 of 26 38% 2 of 17 0 of 0 8 of 9 5 of 18 0 of 1 5 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)

Round 1
The main event will be refereed by Jason Herzog. O'Malley starts off with a spinning back kick to the body. Dvalishvili is able to walk O'Malley back towards the cage. Nice jab by O'Malley, who is also going to the body with punches from afar. Dvalishvili is eating jabs, having some issues with closing the distance early. O'Malley is keeping space with kicks and his jab. Dvalishvili is keeping the pressure on, forcing O'Malley to constantly move. A right hand for Dvalishvili lands, and the champion is then able to get a takedown. O'Malley is quick to get back up, although he grabs the fence. Dvalishvili stays clinched and leans a knee. O'Malley lands his own knee, but gets off-balance and slips. Dvalishvili lands a nice left hook before going for a double-leg takedown. O'Malley does a good job defending, but Dvalishvili is able to pick him up anyhow. Dvalishvili is in full guard. Dvalishvili slips in an elbow and several short hammerfists.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 2
O'Malley takes the center of the cage. Dvalishvili lands a body kick, while O'Malley misses a spinning back kick. A nice right hand to the body for "Suga." Dvalishvili counters O'Malley with two stinging right hands. O'Malley answers back with a strong right hand of his own. Dvalishvili is throwing kicks to the body. O'Malley's movement is much better this round. O'Malley lands a nice jab. Dvalishvili goes for a takedown, but O'Malley escapes from the cage. The round hits the halfway mark. O'Malley jabs to the body. Dvalishvili goes for another takedown, but O'Malley shucks him off and lands a nice left hand. Much better round for the challenger. Dvalishvili lands a right hand and goes for a takedown, but eats a left hand while entering. O'Malley is able to stay upright and hits the champ with a straight right as he exits. A big right hand for Dvalishvili, who keeps the pressure on as the round ends. Much closer round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 3
15 minutes to go. Dvalishvili opens with an overhand right and rushes the challenger. O'Malley lands a solid counter, but Dvalishvili keeps the pressure on and dumps "Suga" to the ground. Dvalishvili is in guard. O'Malley is too happy to sit in guard and is just allowing Dvalishvili to be in control. Dvalishvili is landing shots to the body and slips an elbow in. A lot of time is getting eaten up. Dvalishvili advances into half guard. O'Malley gives up his back in order to get to his feet. Dvalishvili lands a slick knee to the head. Dvalishvili puts O'Malley immediately back down after he gets back to his feet. The fight is fully in Dvalishvili's control. Dvalishvili is in half guard and landing punches with 30 seconds left. Dvalishvili scrambles well into north-south position and is able to lock in a modified guillotine choke. This looks tight, and O'Malley taps. It's over, and Dvalishvili retains with his second-ever submission win.

The Official Result
Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via Submission (Modified Guillotine Choke); R3, 4:42.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley but does not bet. He notes O'Malley has incredible accuracy and power, and only needs one shot to finish, while Merab has a suspect chin and a cut over his eye plus possible staph infection that could affect his cardio. However, he acknowledges that a healthy Merab could shoot 550 takedowns and win a boring decision. He is on O'Malley's side but too much of a coward to bet, though he mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.

No bet; mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.
"I am I'm on the Shaun Ali side no bet though I'm too much of a coward to actually bet on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks O'Malley, emphasizing damage over control. He notes Dvalishvili's game is takedown attempts with little damage, while O'Malley has power and finishing ability. He predicts O'Malley will land big shots and possibly knock out Dvalishvili in the second round, though a damage-based decision is also possible.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Al I think he probably I'll say knockout for a Ali here... I'll say in the second round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody believes Merab's wrestling and cardio will be too much for O'Malley, especially given O'Malley's inactivity and injury concerns. He notes that O'Malley's takedown defense hasn't improved enough and that Merab can make the fight look easier by pushing the pace early. He sees a unanimous decision win for Merab.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, citing O'Malley's superior striking accuracy, footwork, and ability to fight going backwards. He believes O'Malley's teep kicks and straight shots will counter Merab's looping punches and pressure. Daniel also notes O'Malley's brown belt under Cesar Gracie and dismisses cardio concerns, but acknowledges Merab's takedown volume could be a factor if he closes distance.

O'Malley by TKO in round 3
"I'm going with sugar Sean O'Malley man I mean I just don't know why I'm going with sugar Sean but I have a feeling that he's gonna get it done you know via knockout"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that Merab takes a shot in almost every fight and O'Malley will land that one. He notes Merab's top control is not great and people get back up, differentiating him from Aljamain Sterling. He believes O'Malley is getting an easier fight than against Sterling because Merab is more hitable and susceptible to being countered.

O'Malley by KO
"I'm gonna take Shan Ali too um I I mean obviously I liked it better when he was an underdog but the bottom line for me here is just morab takes a shot in almost every single fight he's in"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley because he is a striker with a big reach advantage and has cleared every hurdle. He acknowledges Merab could take him down and grind out a win, but believes O'Malley can piece him up on the feet and has shown solid grappling.

"I'm going with the striker I'll go with all Mali he's know he's surprised that I think we take you know his clown person outside the cage um we let it maybe or some people let it um that it …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)
Sean O'Malley

Lucrative James believes the odds are slightly off, with Merab as a -305 favorite. He notes that Sean O'Malley has more margin for improvement after a close first fight where he hurt Merab in the fifth round. He sees value in O'Malley at +255 and plans to bet him, though he acknowledges Merab's wrestling and cardio make him the likely winner. He emphasizes betting value over picking the winner.

"I'm calling Shaun Ali as the clear side. Shauna Ali is the clear bet inside and plus 255 is good to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili has shown great durability and will stick on O'Malley like white on rice, not giving him the space to generate knockout power. Expects Dvalishvili to put O'Malley through the ringer, possibly approaching 50 takedown attempts, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to go with the machine who has shown great durability throughout his career and I expect him to stick on Ali like white on rice so that he doesn't give him the space required from Ali to generate …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul thinks Merab's game plan is clear and that O'Malley's only chance is a puncher's chance. He points out that O'Malley hasn't fought since the first loss and has been nursing injuries, while Merab has been active and improving. He expects Merab to control the fight with wrestling and win a decision.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by TKO in the first or second round. He notes Merab has a staph infection and a cut over his eye, which could be exploited. He believes O'Malley's footwork and takedown defense will neutralize Merab's wrestling, and that O'Malley's upward knees and left hook will be key. He also suggests the UFC may favor O'Malley and that an early stoppage is possible if Merab gets hurt.

O'Malley by TKO in first or second round; mentions staph infection and cut as factors
"I'm going to go Sha Al by TKO in the first or second round putting morab away and I'm going to tell you this as well on top of the staff infection the cut over his eye that's definitely a …"
WIN vs Henry Cejudo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 74 of 172 43% 167 of 273 5 of 11 45% 1 0 4:23
Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 78 37% 54 of 106 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 32 50% 42 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Henry Cejudo 0 11 of 20 55% 36 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 78 43% 49 of 94 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:46
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 24 of 62 38% 76 of 120 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:24
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 74 of 172 43% 44 of 128 20 of 34 10 of 10 51 of 134 13 of 24 10 of 14
Henry Cejudo 29 of 78 37% 13 of 54 5 of 11 11 of 13 24 of 68 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 23 6 of 8 1 of 1
Henry Cejudo 11 of 20 55% 4 of 13 3 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 78 43% 22 of 61 9 of 14 3 of 3 27 of 64 1 of 6 6 of 8
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 6 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 24 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 24 of 62 38% 13 of 45 7 of 13 4 of 4 15 of 47 6 of 10 3 of 5
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 3 of 19 0 of 3 6 of 7 9 of 26 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.

"morab is going to be the pick I will be rooting big time for Henry cejudo here but you got to go morab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.

Merab by decision
"I'm taking Mor Rob here I'm taking Mor Rob by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.

"I have interest in the underdog Henry cejudo um just because I think he obviously being a Olympic champion in wrestling can maybe thwart uh Mor's best path to Victory which is nonstop attacking takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.

"I think Merab is going to win too... I think he gets it done here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.

"give me deales fi by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.

"yeah man because that ability to just keep going the non-stop pressure in the action so I I think that that eventually grinds away as audo and uh gives him a points Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.

"I'm going with Merab... Morab's got not that bad standup... monstrous cardio and you're giving him a size and mass advantage over Cejudo."
WIN vs Petr Yan
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 75 of 143 52% 87 of 155 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:50
Petr Yan 0 147 of 338 43% 202 of 401 11 of 49 22% 0 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Petr Yan 0 22 of 62 35% 35 of 81 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:10
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Petr Yan 0 35 of 80 43% 41 of 86 3 of 7 42% 0 0 0:59
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 8 of 27 29% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Petr Yan 0 15 of 46 32% 22 of 53 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:34
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Petr Yan 0 38 of 75 50% 51 of 88 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:01
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Petr Yan 0 37 of 75 49% 53 of 93 5 of 12 41% 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 75 of 143 52% 41 of 105 16 of 19 18 of 19 66 of 132 9 of 11 0 of 0
Petr Yan 147 of 338 43% 91 of 260 35 of 52 21 of 26 129 of 312 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 13 of 25 52% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 22 of 62 35% 12 of 48 6 of 9 4 of 5 15 of 54 7 of 8 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 18 of 35 51% 6 of 21 8 of 10 4 of 4 16 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 35 of 80 43% 19 of 59 8 of 11 8 of 10 32 of 75 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 8 of 27 29% 5 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 15 of 46 32% 10 of 37 5 of 8 0 of 1 13 of 41 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 31 67% 15 of 25 4 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 75 50% 24 of 55 10 of 15 4 of 5 36 of 72 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 11 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Petr Yan 37 of 75 49% 26 of 61 6 of 9 5 of 5 33 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"I am going to go with the brain here pyoto's gonna be the pick... I think he'll spin off I think he's gonna light up marab's legs he may shoot his own takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.

win by TKO in round 4
"I like yawn a lot I like yawn to finish this fight I'm gonna say fourth round TKO for Pierre on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I really don't like the money line on this to be honest but I do have Peter yawn winning fight and I think you're going to be able to probably live at this after the first and feel a lot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think he's going to win. Yeah, he's going to, I have to expect that he's just going to be able to see the moments when Dvalishvili really actually sits down and plants his feet. And when he does see …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.

Yan by KO round 3
"I think he knocks out murab de valasfili within three rounds maybe even the fourth but I think he knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.

sprinkled Yan round 4 at +2200 and Yan round 5 at +3300; suggests live betting after first round
"I am going to side with Peter yawn to get back on track minus 250 isn't doing it for me I did sprinkle yawn round four at 20 plus 2200 and yawn round five at plus 3 300."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.

by decision or late rounds TKO
"I think Jan's got this one in the bag I do I was watching marab's fight with Marla Mirage I know it's Marla Mirage and he's dangerous and he is going to drop people early and that's just how it …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think this is a pretty good matchup for him because Marab can do a lot of Aljo type things. ... The difference is, is that Aljamaine Sterling is possibly the best back taker in the sport. ... Marab is …"
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
Umar Nurmagomedov - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 34 of 72 47% 103 of 167 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:50
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 27 29% 28 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 9 of 19 47% 28 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 6 of 13 46% 56 of 81 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:05
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 0 of 1 0% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 34 of 72 47% 19 of 50 11 of 17 4 of 5 28 of 58 2 of 3 4 of 11
Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 27 29% 4 of 18 4 of 8 0 of 1 7 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 2 of 2 7 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 6
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 of 6 0% 0 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 19 of 40 47% 12 of 28 5 of 9 2 of 3 18 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 20 40% 4 of 14 4 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Deiveson Figueiredo (138.5: Missed Weight) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-1450), Figueiredo (+850)

Round 1
One more catchweight contest sits on tonight’s lineup, as former flyweight kingpin Figueiredo (25-5-1, 14-5-1 UFC) blew past the 136-pound limit of his relatively new division by two and a half pounds. Like Perez before, Figueiredo will give up 25% of his purse. Nurmagomedov (19-1, 7-1 UFC) will gladly pocket that as he closes as a monumental betting favorite of -1600 or higher depending on the book, which could very well end the year as the widest discrepancy between fighters. Referee Herb Dean draws the charge for this pairing, one that opens up without a glove touch.
Nurmagomedov moves directly to the center of the Octagon and aims his low kick out to get his range. Figueiredo responds with a faked takedown attempt, and he hops back to avoid another leg kick. Nurmagomedov bounces back and forth on his heels switching stances, and he misses with a high kick. The Russian catches Figueiredo with a front kick to the chest, knocking him back but not appearing to otherwise harm him. Nurmagomedov calmly works his way in, with a kick aimed up high before he checks one coming back his direction. Figueiredo just misses on a big right hand, and he dodges a kick aimed at his face. The two crash together, and Nurmagomedov connects with a pair of short uppercuts on the inside that back “Daico” up. Nurmagomedov plants another front kick on the midsection to drive his man back.
Legs clash together when kicked at the same time, and Nurmagomedov just misses a front-leg high kick and shoots in for a double. Figueiredo defends with a guillotine choke to force the two back to their feet seconds later. Nurmagomedov sells out for a body lock and trip takedown, landing successfully in half guard to put Figueiredo flat on his back. Nurmagomedov smothers from above as Figueiredo drags him back to his closed guard, and Nurmagomedov promptly punches him to open it back up. They both swing at one another until the bell and a bit beyond, and it remains to be seen if Figueiredo connected with a single significant strike after the five-minute period.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves as the second round begins, and Nurmagomedov is quick to get his foot in Figueiredo’s face. Figueiredo tries to swing back with a right hand, but when he bounces back, his face shows his visible frustration. The Brazilian scores a right to the body, and he dodges a number of kicks that whiz past him. Nurmagomedov lands at the end of a high kick, and he hurls another from the other leg that Figueiredo catches and uses to put the Russian down. Nurmagomedov easily escapes from being stuck on his back, and they resume back in the center of the cage. Figueiredo ducks and works his way in, but Nurmagomedov reaches him first. Figueiredo loads up with a body kick, and the Russian bookends it with two kicks of his own to the abdomen. Figueiredo just leans back enough to evade a few high kicks, and he flashes a grin after one buzzes the tower.
Figueiredo has still yet to fully engage, and he prepares to defend a double-leg entry that he stuffs. Figueiredo keeps moving on the outside, backing away and not attacking with any thing of merit. They both land single punches, but in that similar stretch of time, Nurmagomedov has landed a few more before and after. Figueiredo grabs a kick from out of the air but cannot take the fight down this time. Nurmagomedov sets up a body lock with a one-one-two, and he grapples Figueiredo but cannot get him down. Figueiredo clips his foe with a right hand, and Nurmagomedov is surprised by the power that just hit him. Figueiredo sees that he has his man finally paying attention, and he loads up on a few more and scores them hard. Nurmagomedov hurls a few back, and he lands cleanly when he does, but is largely defending himself when the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 3
Nurmagomedov strikes first in the final frame with a front kick, and he tosses one from the other side to make Figueiredo defend it. Nurmagomedov blasts the body with a fierce kick, and he skims one off the red-dyed stripe of the Brazilian’s melon. Nurmagomedov slaps his foe with a light high kick, and Dean asks for more from the two. The Russian scores another head kick, and he channels it into a takedown. Figueiredo defends with his guillotine, but this time, Nurmagomedov easily slides out of it to establish himself on top. When landing some ground strikes, Nurmagomedov is warned for landing them to the back of the head.
Nurmagomedov embraces the grind, in Figueiredo’s closed guard with no need to advance. Precious seconds tick off the clock for the former flyweight champ, who is stuck flat with no answers as he gets pummeled with elbows. Figueiredo tries to use butterfly hooks to push off, but this only allows Nurmagomedov to pass to half. Fans shower the athletes with boos while Nurmagomedov further makes Figueiredo’s life miserable with his ground attack. When Nurmagomedov looks to pass, Figueiredo uses that motion against him to drag him back to the guard—but in doing so, keeps him trapped. Figueiredo is relegated to elbow strikes from his back to stay busy, and he explodes back up with seconds to go and throws so hard that he falls over again. When the match ends, they hug it out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Deiveson Figueiredo via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov with extreme confidence, calling minus 500 understated. He argues Umar is better in every aspect: striking, wrestling, speed, and strength. He questions how Figueiredo can win given his 57% takedown defense and lack of power. He believes Umar has way more paths to victory.

Umar Deongdov minus500 is somehow the deal of the card.
"Umar should go down as the biggest favorite in UFC history for this fight. ... Umar is going to win this fight. He has way more path to victory."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady sees this as a brutal matchup for Figueiredo, who is 38 and coming off a poor performance against Sandhagen. He expects Umar to take him down easily and submit him, likely by rear-naked choke in the second round. He notes Figueiredo's only chance is a guillotine or big shot, but both are unlikely.

Nurmagomedov by submission in round 2
"I just think Umar is going to style on him. So, I mean, yeah, minus500, it makes sense to me."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Umar's wrestling and Figueiredo's decline. He mentions Figueiredo's poor cardio and lack of activity, making Umar a strong favorite. Cody is not betting the money line but considers the over 2.5 rounds or Umar by decision as alternatives.

"I'm just going to attack it from like a over under standpoint. If I get like over two and a half or minus 180, probably would be able to find a better onmarket price than that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor argues that Figueiredo has adapted well at bantamweight by slowing pace and relying on wrestling, but Umar is a superior wrestler and grappler who won't be outwrestled. He notes that Figueiredo's slow pace won't work against Umar's high volume of kicks and pressure, and that Figueiredo struggled on the ground against Corey Sandhagen. Connor believes the odds are disrespectful to Figueiredo, but still picks Umar confidently.

Odds comment: Umar opened at -800, now -1500; Figueiredo opened at +550, now +850. Connor says the odds are 'disrespectful' and that Figueiredo could sleep him or submit him.
"I mean even Mario Batista manage that Marab Batista is an insane scrambler. So that lane is kind of closed as it was for example when he fought Corey Sandhagen. It actually got chewed up on the ground."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland picks Umar Nurmagomedov to dominate. He notes that Umar is younger, taller, and a massive favorite. Vreeland respects Figueiredo's power and experience but believes Umar will outwork him and possibly secure a finish. He advises passing on betting due to the steep odds.

"I think Umar Nurmagamed comes out here dominates the legend Davis Figerettto and possibly secures himself another UFC title."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

James is confident in Nurmagomedov, citing his elite training camp with Islam Makhachev and Figueiredo's apparent lack of focus (posting guns and weightlifting). He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, and notes the odds reflect the disparity.

"I think Umar's going to take him down, rinse and repeat. He's going to stay on the outside for as long as he needs to be."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host is confident in Nurmagomedov, expecting him to take Figueiredo down and wear him out for a late finish. He notes Figueiredo's only chance is a puncher's shot or guillotine, but doubts he can outwrestle or outstrike Nurmagomedov. He finds the -500 line amusing but sees it as justified, predicting a third-round finish.

Nurmagomedov wins in round 3
"I'm expecting Nurmagamedov to work Figo to the ground uh slowly wear him down. I think he eventually gets that third round finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is not betting the money line due to the steep price. He believes Umar's wrestling and control will be too much for Figueiredo, who has declined at bantamweight. Paul notes Figueiredo's lack of cardio and recent performances, making Umar a safe pick for parlays.

"I think Umar takes him down. I think Umar will control. I think it'll be father's plan type of thing because why just stand at least early it will be."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting his constant pressure and grappling advantage over Figueiredo's 'small moments'. He believes Umar will survive Figueiredo's tricks and finish him via TKO in round two.

TKO in round two
"I think in round two he'll finish him. I think this will be a round two finish from Umar Nekamemedov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane agrees with Connor that Umar is the clear pick, emphasizing that Figueiredo's adjusted style of low output and wrestling won't work against Umar's wrestling and pressure. He notes that Umar will be happy to throw thousands of kicks from range and that Figueiredo's slow pace will be countered. Zane also comments on the odds being lopsided but still picks Umar.

Odds comment: Umar opened at -800, now -1500; Figueiredo opened at +550, now +850. Zane says the odds are 'silly' and that Figueiredo could still win.
"I mean like I will say this should be on the main card over Waldo Cortez Acosta Jack. Eric Lewis court Waldo Cortez Acosta should be the featured prelim. No question."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 111 of 259 42% 142 of 293 7 of 30 23% 0 0 2:22
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 104 of 237 43% 113 of 246 2 of 15 13% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 49 40% 27 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 25 of 47 53% 26 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:48
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 54 38% 25 of 58 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 48 45% 25 of 51 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:43
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 36 of 70 51% 48 of 82 4 of 9 44% 0 0 1:05
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 21 of 47 44% 26 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 39 35% 21 of 47 2 of 12 16% 0 0 0:53
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 111 of 259 42% 71 of 207 30 of 37 10 of 15 88 of 219 22 of 37 1 of 3
Umar Nurmagomedov 104 of 237 43% 76 of 199 22 of 30 6 of 8 92 of 219 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 47 42% 10 of 35 6 of 6 4 of 6 13 of 39 7 of 8 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 49 36% 11 of 38 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 7 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 38 5 of 10 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 38 6 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 54 38% 14 of 43 5 of 7 2 of 4 17 of 49 3 of 4 1 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 48 45% 17 of 40 2 of 3 3 of 5 20 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 36 of 70 51% 25 of 57 10 of 12 1 of 1 31 of 58 5 of 11 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 21 of 47 44% 18 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 39 35% 10 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 46 39% 12 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

"Umar is going to be the pick I will kind of warn you here minus 325 I mean it's a bit disrespectful to morab"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Mentions he took Merab at +175 earlier and is surprised at the line movement. No specific prop bet.
"I think it's a little bit too much too much Steam on the the Naga mov side here the dogger pass situation for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Odds opened at -246, now -338; Merab opened +211, now +280. Connor thinks the line is too wide in Umar's favor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Daniel says he is not betting on this fight, calling it a pass. He mentions that Umar is favored at -350 and Merab at +275.
"I'm actually going to go with Umar to be the new UFC bantamweight champion but from a betting perspective I can understand why someone would call this a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

May look at a point spread for Merab to win one or two rounds
"I'm gonna say um magedov becomes Champion I've believed in him from when he had his UFC debut"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

"I think nag gamov will do a good job in terms of stifling the high activity game of dval stopping the takedowns Landing the better output maybe even Landing big enough shots to knock down dval fi but I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

Mentions that if Umar can mix in his own offensive wrestling and take Merab down, it changes the dynamic. No specific prop.
"I eventually ended up on the Nam magov side yeah that's fair"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

TKO round 2-3
"I think umar's going to get a question mark kick KO over morab deash that's my prediction I think he'll finish him in round two or three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 71 of 159 44% 80 of 172 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 98 of 187 52% 123 of 219 5 of 13 38% 0 0 5:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 17 of 34 50% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:39
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:55
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 17 of 27 62% 20 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:25
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 30 of 65 46% 32 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 12 of 25 48% 32 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 71 of 159 44% 26 of 94 18 of 32 27 of 33 71 of 158 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 98 of 187 52% 48 of 124 27 of 39 23 of 24 96 of 182 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 17 of 34 50% 4 of 16 4 of 7 9 of 11 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 15 of 28 53% 8 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 16 of 32 50% 6 of 16 4 of 9 6 of 7 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 24 of 42 57% 11 of 27 7 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 30 40% 2 of 13 2 of 7 8 of 10 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 17 of 27 62% 2 of 6 7 of 13 8 of 8 17 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 20 of 53 37% 11 of 43 7 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 30 of 65 46% 21 of 55 5 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 12 of 25 48% 6 of 18 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov because of his elite wrestling and chain takedowns. He notes Sandhagen has been taken down by everyone who tried, and despite being more well-rounded, he doesn't see Sandhagen defending the takedowns. He expects Nurmagomedov to cruise to a decision.

"I think Umar just cruises here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady believes Umar is a future champion and that this is a winnable stylistic matchup. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but is still suspect, and Umar should have no problem taking the fight to the ground and controlling it. He predicts Umar wins by decision, acknowledging Sandhagen is being disrespected by the odds.

"I think Umar's going to have no problem getting this fight down to the ground and once Umar gets on top there's probably a really good chance he stays there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his wrestling and top control as key advantages. He notes that Umar is a 28-year-old Russian talent with solid top pressure and positional soundness, though his wrestling isn't as dominant as Khabib's. Cody believes Umar will use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking and win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges the line is wide but trusts the Dagestani game plan.

"I got to go with the OV greatness here and the Russian fighter to hopefully just land those takedowns get the control time and eventually get the unanimous decision Victory."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel is torn on this fight. He acknowledges Umar's undefeated record and the Dagestani mystique, especially in Abu Dhabi, but questions his level of competition. He notes Sandhagen's elite resume and improvements since the Yan loss, including increased takedown attempts. Ultimately, he reluctantly picks Umar due to the location and potential, but admits he has no clear read and considers it a dog or pass from a betting perspective.

"I'm gonna go Umar reluctantly but like Umar needs to prove it to me against this level of competition man he's never seen anything like this before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov's overall skill set will allow him to stay away from Sandhagen's unorthodox striking. He will eventually resort to wrestling, keeping Sandhagen on his back and grinding out a decision win.

"I think Nag's overall skill site here will allow him to stay away from the dangers that the unorthodox striking approach of San Haagen poses and I think we'll see Naga made of eventually resort to his wrestling keeping San …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his wrestling and the fact that Sandhagen has struggled against elite grapplers. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but there are levels, and Umar's striking is also coming along. Paul expects Umar to mix in takedowns and control the fight, similar to what Belal Muhammad does. He mentions the line is wide but still sides with Umar.

"I think umar's uh about to uh come knocking tell tell suar Shan he's coming."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Cory Sandhagen, believing Sandhagen is too weak despite his technique. He thinks Umar's size and strength will allow him to hold Sandhagen down, especially in Abu Dhabi where standups are rare. He notes Sandhagen's lack of power and poor wrestling compared to Umar. He predicts a boring 49-46 decision for Umar.

decision
"I'm going to go with Umar I'm going to go with Umar sadly I like Cory sandhagen I just think he ain't got enough power"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 68 of 98 69% 145 of 197 5 of 5 100% 0 0 11:26
Bekzat Almakhan 1 3 of 16 18% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 8 87% 43 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:21
Bekzat Almakhan 1 2 of 3 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 39 of 60 65% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:06
Bekzat Almakhan 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 30 73% 50 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:59
Bekzat Almakhan 0 1 of 5 20% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 68 of 98 69% 64 of 94 0 of 0 4 of 4 7 of 13 0 of 0 61 of 85
Bekzat Almakhan 3 of 16 18% 1 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 7 of 8 87% 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7
Bekzat Almakhan 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 39 of 60 65% 38 of 59 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 36 of 53
Bekzat Almakhan 0 of 8 0% 0 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 30 73% 20 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 25
Bekzat Almakhan 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, acknowledging Bekzat Almakhan is a very good fighter but believes Umar's wrestling and kicking range will be the difference. He notes the odds are too high to bet on Umar at -900, removing any temptation to bet.

No bet due to extreme odds
"Umar is going to be the pick for sure these odds are kind of crazy umar's a minus 900 favorite and frankly I'm glad that he's a minus 900 favorite because that will remove any Temptation whatsoever to bet on …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar to finish Almakhan in the second round by submission. He notes Umar is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling—and has fought much better competition. He thinks Almakhan is a solid fighter but is outmatched. He calls Umar a -1200 favorite and expects a finish.

second round submission
"give me Umar naged up to go out there and finish vad here in the second round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody also picks Umar, noting that Almakhan is a sacrificial lamb brought in to lose. He compares Almakhan to other undefeated regional fighters who struggle in the UFC, like Azat Maksum. Cody believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior and that Almakhan's only path to victory is a freak accident or foul. He calls it a squash match.

"Umar would have to get himself disqualified or hurt uh otherwise he's got him beat everywhere and it's a win-win situation for both guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling and striking, but Almakhan is a legitimate regional champion with improving skills. The host expects Nurmagomedov to win by decision rather than finish, as Almakhan is more disciplined than in his sole loss. The over 1.5 rounds is too chalky at -200, but Nurmagomedov by decision prop could offer plus money. The host advises against parlaying the -1050 moneyline.

Nurmagomedov by decision (prop), over 1.5 rounds considered but not recommended
"I'm going to take Naga mov and norov by decision I'll see what that prop is if we're getting solid enough plus money on it maybe I'll take a shot there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar confidently, calling him a future champion. He notes that Almakhan is a short-notice replacement with a padded record and that Umar is levels above. He mentions that Almakhan is well-rounded but not elite in any area, and Umar should dominate everywhere. He acknowledges the minus-1000 price is prohibitive for straight bets but sees Umar as a safe parlay piece.

"Umar keeps getting better obviously nobody wants the cousin Umar smoking for good reason... I think he beats everybody in this division so how could I not pick him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting he is a massive bantamweight with strength and grappling advantages. He predicts Umar will get a takedown, take the back, and choke out Almakhan in round one. He sees a significant strength difference and believes Almakhan looks frail in comparison.

round 1 submission
"I think Umar is going to get a takedown... take the back and choke him out... round one submission Umar Nurmagomedov"
KO (body kick and punch) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 1 36 of 51 70% 36 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raoni Barcelos 0 13 of 24 54% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 36 of 51 70% 36 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raoni Barcelos 0 13 of 24 54% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 36 of 51 70% 20 of 32 12 of 13 4 of 6 35 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 13 of 24 54% 6 of 17 5 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 36 of 51 70% 20 of 32 12 of 13 4 of 6 35 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 13 of 24 54% 6 of 17 5 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-610), Barcelos (+460)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with an important bantamweight tilt between an undefeated up-and-comer in Nurmagomedov (15-0, 3-0 UFC) and an aging but still dangerous Brazilian bomber Barcelos (17-3, 6-2 UFC), with a place in the top 15 on the line. The third man in the Octagon for this one is referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in despite no touch of gloves. The two are tentative to begin, with 30 seconds of inactivity before Barcelos springs into action with a big right hand. Nurmagomedov shoulder-rolls it and changes stances, and he kicks with both legs. Barcelos sits down on a head kick, and the blocked impact echoes through the UFC Apex. Nurmagomedov looks to curl a right hand round the guard, and he plants a side kick on the breadbasket. Barcelos cuts him off while Nurmagomedov kicks away, and the Brazilian advances slowly and has a body kick connect. Nurmagomedov paws out front kicks like jabs, with the two fighting at safe kickboxing range. Barcelos kicks high and then to the body, and Nurmagomedov answers with one to the ribs of his own. The Brazilian catches his man with a quick right hand, and he crashes forward with two looping shots. Nurmagomedov counters to back him off, and he fires off a head kick that gets blocked. Barcelos defends it and swings a hammer, and Nurmagomedov barely avoids it. When they come together, they clack heads, and Barcelos appears to ask him not to do this. Barcelos shrugs off a pair of front kicks so that he can loose a kick to the side, and he takes a flush jab on the way in. Nurmagomedov chips away with kicks from both legs, and a left hand stuns Barcelos momentarily. Barcelos gathers his wits and continues to advance, throwing so hard that he crashes into the wall and ricochets off it. Nurmagomedov resettles for a small bouquet of kicks as Barcelos advances again.
The Russian lifts his knee up and turns it into a body kick, and he unloads a left hand on the same side to completely separate Barcelos from his consciousness. The Brazilian falls lifelessly to the mat on his back, with the back of his head clattering on the floor, and Nurmagomedov gives chase to drop down one single destructive hammerfist.
Realizing that his opponent is astral traveling, Nurmagomedov pulls back from any further damage, and actually puts his hand on the top of Barcelos' head to check on him like a mother and her child. Herzog sees that this fight is over, and he pulls Nurmagomedov off of the dozing Barcelos. Nurmagomedov appears genuinely concerned for his fallen opponent, and he confirms this by apologizing for destroying him in the post-fight interview. For only the second time of his career, Nurmagomedov has knocked an opponent out, and he is now a flawless 16-0 as a pro.

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Raoni Barcelos R1 4:40 via KO (Body Kick and Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar but criticizes the -950 odds as absurd. He believes Umar's relentless wrestling will eventually get takedowns despite Barcelos' excellent takedown defense. He thinks Barcelos is more well-rounded and dangerous, but Umar's pressure wins a decision. He advises not betting at these odds.

"I think Umar wins this fight ... I do not think he's gonna look like a minus 950 doing it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently despite the steep odds, calling Barcelos 'not a bum' but noting signs of decline at 35. He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the toughest test Barcelos has faced, and that he can get the fight to the mat and control him. He expects Nurmagomedov to grind out a decision, as Barcelos has good submission defense and durability. He also notes that Nurmagomedov has competitive striking and flashy kicks, but the grappling advantage should be decisive.

Nurmagomedov by decision
"I'm gonna say normange gets this done I'll say bye decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar but acknowledges Barcelos' takedown defense and wrestling credentials. He thinks Umar will get takedowns and win a decision, and likes the 'Umar by decision' prop at -200. He also mentions Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar by decision at -200; Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I honestly think by decision um made of super talented don't get me wrong but he'll have to work a lot harder in this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos because he has excellent takedown defense (95% in the UFC) and is a good striker with power and speed. He notes that Nurmagomedov's wrestling may not be as effective against Barcelos, and that Nurmagomedov's striking lacks depth and consistency. Connor also points out that Barcelos has shown he can compete with wrestlers and that Nurmagomedov hasn't faced significant pushback. He acknowledges the coaching change for Nurmagomedov as a potential factor.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Connor thinks the odds are absurd and that Barcelos is a top-15 bantamweight.
"I'm going to pick Barcelos here because I have yet to see anybody succeed at all against him in the wrestling and it's not the wrestling that has me concerned."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Jacob picks Umar but calls the line disrespectful to Barcelos. He notes Barcelos' elite takedown defense and striking, but thinks Umar's chain wrestling will eventually win. He warns that if Umar's first takedown is stuffed, bettors should sweat. He has a separate bet on the fight for premium members.

Has a bet on the fight for premium members
"I think Umar wins but let's put some respect on honey man"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is confident in Umar, calling him the future champion. He notes Umar's striking accuracy and wrestling pedigree, and believes he will win easily. He already parlayed Umar with Ige and Rębecki at -500. He also likes Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks; parlayed with Ige and Rębecki at +167
"umar's gonna win he's probably gonna make it look easy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov because he believes the wrestling will be a factor and that Barcelos has trouble creating pace when his opponent succeeds with volume. He notes that Nurmagomedov's variety and pace could overwhelm Barcelos, who struggles to match high output. Zane also points out that Barcelos has failed when his wrestling game isn't working, while Nurmagomedov hasn't been tested in that way. He acknowledges the risk but leans on the 'prove it' side.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Zane thinks the odds are absurd but still picks Nurmagomedov.
"I am going to settle on as I usually do the the prove it side where I'm just like I don't yet have any reason to think like the other thing here is that I wouldn't have picked a single …"
WIN vs Nate Maness
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 20 10% 46 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 74 of 100 74% 128 of 161 3 of 4 75% 0 0 10:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 10 10% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 18 of 21 85% 40 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 0 of 1 0% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 21 of 31 67% 32 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 9 11% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 35 of 48 72% 56 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 2 of 20 10% 1 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 74 of 100 74% 60 of 79 10 of 15 4 of 6 17 of 33 0 of 0 57 of 67
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 10 10% 0 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 18 of 21 85% 17 of 17 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 14
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 21 of 31 67% 18 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 26
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 35 of 48 72% 25 of 35 7 of 9 3 of 4 12 of 21 0 of 0 23 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.

"i am still going to pick namga madoff here i don't think this is like the first round destruction that everybody thinks it's going to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.

Umar wins by submission in round 1
"i like umar here i think he takes him down and once he does get him down i think it takes vanessa's back and i don't think he's surviving after that so give me uh umar manga met off first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.

"i'm agreeing with you inside the distance nine to one's a huge price tag because everybody's darling this week and the inside the distance would definitely help you"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.

Umar inside the distance -150 at DraftKings; Umar by TKO +400-+500
"i think cousin umar is like amazing i think he's gonna be a big problem for guys in this division for years to come i don't think nate mines is any sort of real threat"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host picks Umar Nurmagomedov, trusting his skills and noting he makes low-level opponents look easy. He believes Umar will hurt Maness on the feet and then secure a submission in the second round. He criticizes Maness's last win over Tony Gravely as a fluke and doubts his grappling will be enough.

second round submission prediction
"i'm going to go with umar nurmagomedov winning this one"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:15 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 19 5% 1 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Brian Kelleher 0 18 of 26 69% 21 of 29 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 19 5% 1 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Brian Kelleher 0 18 of 26 69% 21 of 29 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 19 5% 0 of 13 0 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 18 of 26 69% 9 of 15 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 19 5% 0 of 13 0 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 18 of 26 69% 9 of 15 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar confidently, calling him a clear pick and a parlay piece. He highlights Umar's fantastic chain wrestling and constant pressure. He notes Kelleher doesn't have one-punch KO power, so even if Umar is hittable, it won't matter. He mentions the betting line movement favoring Umar.

parlay piece
"umar is the clear pick for me here and i will parlay him for sure"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by submission in the second round. He is very high on Umar's skills, noting his fast striking, good wrestling, and scrambling ability. Brady points out that Kelleher has been submitted six times and has poor takedown defense (60%). He believes Umar will be able to take Kelleher down and submit him, especially given Kelleher's tendency to give up takedowns and go for guillotines. Brady also notes Umar's youth and potential for improvement.

Nurmagomedov by submission in round 2
"i'm gonna take umar nurmagomedov to win i'm actually gonna take him to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody is extremely high on Umar, calling him a future champion. He praises Umar's striking, takedown entries, and pace. He bet the under 2.5 rounds at +130, expecting an early finish. Cody notes Kelleher's only path is a guillotine, but Umar is too well-rounded and will dominate everywhere.

Bet under 2.5 rounds at +130
"cousin umar is the truth"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He praises Umar's kicking game and grappling, and believes Kelleher will be outmatched. He notes that Kelleher is a tough veteran but Umar is too much. He predicts Umar will win a decision, possibly a dominant one.

"i'ma say umar nurmagomedov decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent striking and grappling. Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Nurmagomedov will use his kicks to maintain distance and then take the fight to the ground where he is dominant. Kelleher is durable and has good submission defense, but Nurmagomedov should control the fight and win a decision. The minus 675 is too steep for parlays, but Nurmagomedov via decision is a solid prop.

Nurmagomedov via decision
"i am picking nurmagomedov i do think that kelleher is quite durable so i do think that we see this go the full 15 minutes uh so if you do want to look to play this fight maybe taking the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, calling Umar the complete package with elite wrestling and striking. He notes Umar's performance against Sergey Morozov was dominant and his pace is relentless. Paul believes Kelleher's only chance is to catch Umar in a guillotine, but Umar is too skilled. He plans to include Umar in a parlay with Colby.

"cousin umar is the truth"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Brian Kelleher, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Nurmagomedov's dominant win over Sergey Morozov and sees him as a rising threat in the bantamweight division. He criticizes Kelleher's recent performance against Kevin Croom, noting he looked slow and old. He predicts Nurmagomedov will out-strike Kelleher early, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the second round, similar to his debut finish.

method: rear-naked choke, round: 2
"i'm going to go with vumano megamedov here and i think he'll get this one done via re-naked choke in the second round again"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

"Umar is going to be the pick I will kind of warn you here minus 325 I mean it's a bit disrespectful to morab"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Mentions he took Merab at +175 earlier and is surprised at the line movement. No specific prop bet.
"I think it's a little bit too much too much Steam on the the Naga mov side here the dogger pass situation for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Odds opened at -246, now -338; Merab opened +211, now +280. Connor thinks the line is too wide in Umar's favor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Daniel says he is not betting on this fight, calling it a pass. He mentions that Umar is favored at -350 and Merab at +275.
"I'm actually going to go with Umar to be the new UFC bantamweight champion but from a betting perspective I can understand why someone would call this a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

May look at a point spread for Merab to win one or two rounds
"I'm gonna say um magedov becomes Champion I've believed in him from when he had his UFC debut"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

"I think nag gamov will do a good job in terms of stifling the high activity game of dval stopping the takedowns Landing the better output maybe even Landing big enough shots to knock down dval fi but I think once all is said and done we'll see Naga mov …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

Mentions that if Umar can mix in his own offensive wrestling and take Merab down, it changes the dynamic. No specific prop.
"I eventually ended up on the Nam magov side yeah that's fair"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

TKO round 2-3
"I think umar's going to get a question mark kick KO over morab deash that's my prediction I think he'll finish him in round two or three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."