Career Averages - Alex Oliveira
Career Averages - Tim Means
Alex Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 50 of 76 | 65% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 50 of 76 | 65% | 24 of 48 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 23 | 34 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 44 | 47% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 31 of 50 | 62% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 21 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 19 of 39 | 48% | 6 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 19 of 26 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
| Alex Oliveira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Many expect that this welterweight scrap on the docket now is a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” candidate, as both Holland (21-7, 1 NC; 8-4, 1 NC UFC) and Oliveira (22-11-1, 2 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) love to put on a show. Both men had no issue making the 171-pound limit, and they appear to be fired up and excited to get after it. Referee Chris Tognoni wrangles them long enough to get them to stand behind their respective black lines, and when the fight begins, they rush together to touch gloves. Holland leads the dance with a low kick that connects and a high kick that whizzes past the head of “Cowboy.” Holland connects with another leg kick, drawing a reaction from Oliveira and a response with one of his own. Holland scores a third low kick to the calf, and he just misses when Oliveira wings a big right hook at him. Holland continues to chip away from the outside, and Oliveira catches him on the way in with a right hand counter that knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet. Holland is able to jump back up to his feet and block a flying knee that soars towards him, and he gets back to poking with calf kicks. Holland lunges forward with a right hand, and Oliveira is right there to return fire with a swiping right hook. The punches from Oliveira make Holland lean off-balance. Holland gets cracked with a right hand as he advances, and when he falls to the ground, he laces his legs up for a leglock. Oliveira is able to step out of danger, and he lifts Holland up and slams him down to the mat. Holland is able to scramble away, and he blasts “Cowboy” in the face with a crisp right hand that puts the Brazilian on rubber legs. Not one to shy away from a brawl, Oliveira swings right back and gets Holland’s respect with a few power shots that make Holland’s rear leg lock up for a second. Both men gather themselves and get back to kickboxing range, where Holland is comfortable working with leg kicks and away from the swinging punches that whiz at him. Oliveira chops down Holland’s lead leg with a kick that is much heavier than the ones Holland are throwing, and Holland does a twirl and comes back out swinging. Holland kicks low, and he has it checked, but it seems to have affected Oliveira as well. Oliveira tries to grab the kick, but when it lands, he throws back at Holland. Holland spins from the kick, and he gets snagged against from the Brazilian. In a ridiculous scramble, Oliveira takes his foe’s back and cinches up a rear-naked choke. Instead of being concerned at all, “Trailblazer” motions to thumbs-up signs from each hand to the camera, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 2
The hands get touched to start off the second round, and Oliveira appears to come out limping. Despite this, Oliveira charges ahead with a low kick, and he gets clipped with a small right hand counter. Holland smells blood, and he races out drop hammers on his wounded opponent. The knees of “Cowboy” give way beneath him and he crumbles to the mat, and Holland can see the finish line and delivers a brutal salvo of punches to end the fight. As Oliveira flails and protects himself from harm, Holland switches to elbows and smashes them in his adversary’s face one after the other. Unleashing the thunder, Holland gives it everything he has to record the finish, and Tognoni jumps in to pull Holland off of a wrecked “Cowboy.” There is no ill will between the two after the furious five-plus minutes of ferocity, and they hug it out to celebrate a hard-fought battle.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Alex Oliveira R2 0:38 via TKO (Elbows)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.
Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.
Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.
Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.
The MMA Guru calls Kevin Holland a lock over Alex Oliveira, citing Oliveira's decreased durability since a grenade attack and his tendency to slow down in fights. He believes Holland's youth, durability, and scrappiness will overwhelm Oliveira, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Oliveira has been chinned easily recently and that Holland's weight cut to welterweight should be manageable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 65 of 112 | 58% | 83 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 108 of 167 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 34 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 53 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 65 of 112 | 58% | 31 of 72 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 17 | 56 of 99 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 64 of 116 | 55% | 37 of 83 | 7 of 11 | 20 of 22 | 45 of 93 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 7 of 17 | 41% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 22 | 72% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 19 of 35 | 54% | 9 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 14 of 26 | 53% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 39 of 60 | 65% | 19 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 53 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.
Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.
Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.
Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.
I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.
Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Big Brady picks Oliveira to win a close decision as an underdog. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency is a concern, but if the best version shows up, he can mix in takedowns and top control. He thinks the fight should be closer to a pick'em and likes the value on Oliveira. He also mentions Brown's chin is questionable.
Cody is high on Brown, noting his consistent improvement and physical advantages. He points out Oliveira's lack of motivation and poor recent performances. He expects Brown to use his length and striking to control the fight, and thinks Oliveira will fade if he doesn't get an early finish. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown.
Daniel picks Randy Brown, believing his length and improving game will be too much for Alex Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency and that Brown will pull away in the later rounds, possibly getting a finish. He expects the first round to be close.
I lean Brown here. He has better cardio and technique, and Oliveira is inconsistent. Brown should use his reach and jab to outpoint Oliveira. I like Brown by decision at +225, and the over 1.5 at -225 is also solid. However, Oliveira could surprise with a wild performance, so confidence is not high.
Paul picks Brown, citing his improvement, length, and reach advantage. He notes Oliveira's distractions (nine kids, eight baby mamas) and declining interest. He expects Brown to use his jab and distance to outbox Oliveira, and thinks Oliveira's best days are behind him. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown after round one.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown by decision. He notes that Oliveira is injury-prone and often breaks toes or ribs during fights, while Brown is more durable. He predicts Oliveira wins the first round but Brown comes back in the second and third, winning 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.
The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 45 of 93 | 48% | 48 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 30 of 68 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 45 of 93 | 48% | 19 of 51 | 16 of 29 | 10 of 13 | 37 of 85 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 29 of 67 | 43% | 13 of 46 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 7 of 21 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 17 of 33 | 51% | 9 of 17 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 10 of 17 | 58% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 19 of 36 | 52% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 12 of 29 | 41% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.
Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.
Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 61 of 98 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 62 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 23 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 23 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 40 of 77 | 51% | 21 of 56 | 11 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 35 of 67 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 23 of 50 | 46% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 23 of 41 | 56% | 9 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Opening up the main card is a battle between two welterweights in desperate need of a win as “Cowboy” Oliveira (19-8-1, 2 NC; 9-6, 1 NC UFC) takes on Griffin (15-7, 3-5 UFC) . Drawing the assignment is referee Mark Smith. There is no glove touch, as Griffin comes out firing with a heavy one-two that just misses the mark. Griffin is racing after him, and gets clipped on the way in but does not pull back. “Pain” swings heavily, but does not connect flush, as Oliveira dances away and spins about almost to celebrate that he did not get hit. Oliveira crashes forward and dings him with a right hand before clinching up, and Griffin fights himself free. The two try to paw out their left hands for range, and Oliveira throws a right hand so hard he nearly falls over. The two both wing their punches, and Oliveira sticks out a jab. Griffin takes a one-two, and comes right back with a similar combination but does not score it. The two swing and trade at the same time, and Griffin tags him and cause Oliveira to go flailing with an uppercut. Griffin hits a takedown, and his corner screams at him to back off and do damage. In full guard, Griffin stays heavy while throwing some short punches, and Smith chides Griffin on punching to the back of the head. Griffin passes to half guard, and Oliveira tries to pull himself up the fence so Smith shouts at him to let it go. Griffin stays tight and looks to tie up Oliveira’s arm with his leg, but the Brazilian gets his arm free before interlocking his toes in the fence. Smith again warns him to let go of the cage, and has to slap Oliveira’s toes out. All the while, Griffin slowly works with some elbows and looks at an arm-triangle choke, but with Oliveira against the cage wall, he cannot get leverage to set anything up. As Oliveira springs to his feet, Griffin takes his back, but “Cowboy” rips himself free and the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
Like the first, Griffin practically sprints towards his opponent to land a long jab. Oliveira is ready for it, and catches him before landing two heavy leg kicks that make Griffin’s knee a little wobbly. Oliveira fires out a few more jabs, and Griffin is busted up from these shots with a cut above his right eye towards the bridge of his nose. Oliveira rushes in with a strike, and Griffin times a takedown but the Brazilian halts it. Instead, he turns the position around tries to pull for a single leg takedown, and we can see the blood pouring out of Griffin’s forehead. Smith calls in the doctor to check on the cut, which we can see came from a fierce uppercut. The doctor clears him to continue, and we are back to it. The two men start off with some jabs, and Oliveira pursues the low calf kick that is really irritating Griffin quickly. The two come together and swing, and Oliveira is timing the uppercut but cannot score it. The Brazilian lands an outside and then inside leg kick to the damaged leg, and takes a powerful right hand along the way. The two both come together with huge right hands, and both are clear of the mark with their home run shots. Griffin clinches up, but again Oliveira reverses him. In an attempt to break free, Oliveira pirouettes with a spinning elbow and Griffin is barely able to block it. Griffin shoots in low for a takedown, and Oliveira defends it with a guillotine before pushing him against the fence. After some tense but slow clinch work, “Cowboy” pursues a single but cannot get it, so Griffin breaks free and swings a heavy right hand that is short of the mark. Oliveira stings him with two more right hands, and when Griffin goes after a labored spinning back fist, Oliveira shoots low for one last takedown to seal the round. He does not land it, and the round is over with Griffin bleeding heavily.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
The last round kicks off with Griffin cleared to continue, as we see a separate cut under Griffin’s other eye. Oliveira scores a few long front kicks where he stabs with his toes, and then goes up top with a head kick that is blocked. Griffin tries to close the distance, and Oliveira spins him around to get a takedown. “Pain” stays strong, and spins him around while taking a few elbows to the side and back of his head. Griffin complains, and Smith warns the Brazilian as a cut has now opened on the top of Griffin’s head. This fight could quickly turn into a performance from the Edwin Dewees playbook, and Oliveira separates only to hit a takedown. “Cowboy” lands on top and pursues a choke, before taking full mount, and Griffin is in a bad way as the blood pours into his eye. Oliveira pulls for a straight armlock while on top, and bails on it to end in half guard. Griffin wears a crimson mask and is grimacing as he is not likely able to see, and Oliveira capitalizes with a few short but effective punches on top. The Brazilian once more takes mount, and is starting to unload punches while Griffin tries to blink his eyes clear. Griffin scrambles and manages to reverse the position, and Oliveira falls to his back when he cannot come close to sinking in a guillotine choke. Griffin steps over to half guard and drops some elbows on his man, and Oliveira is holding on for dear life. With 80 seconds to go, Griffin is giving Oliveira his best “You don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression as he bleeds down on his opponent without getting many strikes off. Griffin grinds and starts to pour it on with some very short elbows and punches to try to steal the round. The judges have their hands full in this round, as Griffin ends the fight on top. What a bloody mess of a battle, but it sure was fun.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Alex Oliveira def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.
Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 31 of 84 | 36% | 64 of 122 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 5:29 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 31 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 34 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 10 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 31 of 84 | 36% | 19 of 64 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 45 | 11 of 18 | 11 of 21 |
| Alex Oliveira | 18 of 47 | 38% | 14 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 7 of 29 | 24% | 0 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 12 of 32 | 37% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 14 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 13 of 26 | 50% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 20 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Going back to welterweight, the always-exciting Oliveira (19-7-1, 2 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) tries to spoil the homecoming of Denmark's Dalby (17-3-1, 1 NC; 1-2-1 UFC). In his walk to the cage, Dalby is accompanied by the Denmark National Anthem, as performed by his fiancée Dzifa Adjo Akpalu. The referee taking charge of the cage is Rebin Saber. Oliveira opens up with a low leg kick, and then charges forward with a slew of punches that all fall short. The crowd is electric for their home country fighter, who scores a few slapping leg kicks while trying to find his range on the elusive Brazilian. Dalby leaps through the air with a knee, and as he falls shy of the target, Oliveira tries to counter on the way down, but he too misses. Dalby scores an inside leg kick, and Oliveira replies with one that Dalby checks. "Cowboy" whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, and Dalby responds with a spinning back kick that is nowhere near the mark. Dalby chases Oliveira down with a few punches, punctuated by a head kick that does not land flush. The Dane again blitzes forward, partially connecting with a right hand while avoiding the hard counter from the Brazilian. As Oliveira throws a big right over the top, Dalby shoots in for a takedown, but Oliveira stuffs it. Dalby presses Oliveira against the fence and tries to trip his opponent down, but Oliveira keeps his balance and stays upright, although his back is against the cage. Unsuccessful on another trip, it is actually Oliveira who gets the fight down, scooping the legs of Dalby while attempting to take the back. Returning to full guard, Oliveira drops down a loud right hand and little more, while Dalby tries to set up a triangle. Oliveira shucks off the attempt and lands in half guard, before Dalby reverses position and gets Oliveira down. The crowd is so loud cheering for Dalby that we cannot hear the horn sounding, but the round is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
Oliveira charges forward to begin the round, but does not successfully land on his first combination. Dalby plants a front kick to the chest of his adversary, and unfortunately Oliveira takes an eye poke and makes the referee stop the action. The fight resumes after a very short break, and the two men trade leg kicks before slamming hooks on each other's chins. In the flurry, Dalby floats up a head kick that blasts Oliveira on the side of the head, causing the Brazilian to clinch up. This does not prove to his advantage, as Dalby circles around and scoops the legs from underneath his opponent, with Dalby landing on top to the delight of the crowd. Quickly passing to half guard, Dalby drops down a few short elbows and punches to frustrating effect, so Oliveira tries to turn out of the position. Dalby lands a few punches that might be close to the back of his opponent's head, and then hammers down a couple elbows that are quite effective. Dalby pounds Oliveira with several right hands until the Brazilian has had enough, and Oliveira powers out of the position to stand up. Dalby leans heavy against the fence, and he has successfully bloodied the nose of "Cowboy." On the break, Oliveira tries to spin with a back elbow, but Dalby dodges it and comes on strong, landing punch after punch while Oliveira turtles up. With his opponent possibly playing possum, Dalby stays patient and continues to land on Oliveira. The Brazilian falls to the canvas, and in a scramble Oliveira briefly takes position, but he falls off the back and Dalby ends up on top. Oliveira lands an illegal upkick, causing Saber to pause the action and admonish Oliveira, and stands them back up. With seconds remaining, Oliveira cracks Dalby with a left hand, but Dalby walks it off and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Oliveira's corner implores their fighter to "believe in yourself," causing Oliveira to smile as the final round begins. Dalby just misses with a head kick, causing the crowd to loudly gasp. Dalby shoots in for a double leg takedown and cannot land it, so Oliveira fishes for a guillotine choke. Unable to secure it, the Brazilian bails on it and spins Dalby against the fence. Oliveira tries to kick out the leg of his opponent, and lifts Dalby up and throws him to the cage floor. In side control, Oliveira throws a few knees to the body and grinds his elbow on the Dane's face. Dalby retains half guard, and is looking to sweep the Brazilian, but Oliveira stays strong and hammers down with several punches before the referee inexplicably stands them up. Not wanting to stay on the feet, Oliveira leaps into a double leg takedown, and scores it to drag Dalby back down. "Lokomotivo" rolls out and ends up on top, before taking full mount, and the crowd is deafening in support of their fighter. Dalby postures up to rain down punches and elbows, and then looks to set up an arm-triangle choke before giving it up to keep his strikes going. Dalby sits back up and smashes a few huge elbows to punctuate the fight, and the crowd is elated at Dalby's performance as the bout concludes. The two men embrace and raise their arms in the air after an exciting battle.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 0 | 48 of 137 | 35% | 50 of 139 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 75 of 120 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 0 | 15 of 55 | 27% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 48 of 137 | 35% | 30 of 110 | 7 of 16 | 11 of 11 | 42 of 125 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 65 of 110 | 59% | 48 of 90 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 | 32 of 72 | 18 of 19 | 15 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 17 of 48 | 35% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 36 | 58% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 18 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 15 of 55 | 27% | 9 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 24 of 45 | 53% | 18 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Tim Means - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Court McGee, believing the fight is 50-50 and McGee's wrestling and pressure can be the difference. He notes Tim Means is a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers unjustified given both fighters are old and worn. He placed a small bet on McGee at +195.
Big Brady is hesitant on this fight, noting that both fighters are veterans and he doesn't trust either. He leans towards Tim Means because he believes Means still has a little left in the tank, while Court McGee hasn't had a finish since 2010 and has been losing to lower-level competition. He expects McGee to attempt takedowns but thinks Means will do better work on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks McGee, citing his home-field advantage in Utah and cardio. He notes Means' tendency to gas and get submitted. He believes McGee can outlast Means and possibly win by submission.
Connor picks Means based on sentiment, acknowledging it's not a sound analysis. He notes that Means is old and has lost speed, but Court McGee is not a powerful striker and Means' craft might be enough. He wants Means to go out on a win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tim Means, citing his slick striking and improved wrestling. He notes that Court McGee has slowed down drastically and was nearly beaten by Alex Morono. Vreeland expects Means to knock out McGee, though he is hesitant to lay heavy chalk on a fighter who has lost four of his last five.
The host believes Tim Means is the better overall fighter and will utilize his clinch with knees and elbows, as well as distance striking with kicks and long-range weapons, to pick apart Court McGee. He expects Means to win on the scorecards, noting that McGee lacks significant knockout power.
Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He thinks McGee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees value at plus 170 and expects a close decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Court McGee over Tim Means, citing McGee's training at altitude in Utah as a key advantage. He notes both fighters are past their prime but believes McGee is less finishable and will employ a boring cage control game, failing takedowns but winning the pressure game. He predicts a decision victory for McGee, as neither fighter is likely to finish early.
Zane also picks Means for sentimental reasons, calling himself a long-time Dirty Bird fan. He acknowledges that Means has lost a step but notes that McGee is not a dangerous striker and Means' experience might carry him. He admits it's not a pick based on sound analysis.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 7 of 17 | 41% | 1 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 7 of 17 | 41% | 1 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident Uroš Medić wins, citing his youth, speed, power, and superior striking. He notes Medić has a 100% finish rate and killer instinct. The only concern is Medić's 46% takedown defense, but he thinks Tim Means at 40 years old may not be able to exploit it. He expects a finish and suggests waiting for prop bets, hoping for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.
Cody picks Means as a dog, citing his experience and cleaner striking. He notes Means' body work and straight left, and believes he can hurt Medić, who has been rocked before. However, he admits Means' age and cardio are concerns, making it a doger pass.
Daniel thinks Means is durable but at 40 may not dig deep when hurt. He notes Medić is younger, more dangerous, and showed heart in the Semelsberger fight. He leans Medić but won't bet at -310, though he might take Means as a dog if the price gets better.
Medić is younger, faster, and more powerful. Means is 40 with a lot of mileage. Medić's Muay Thai and power should overwhelm Means as the fight goes on. I expect Medić to finish Means, possibly by knockout. The inside distance prop is a good option.
Paul also picks Means, highlighting his experience against better competition and his opportunistic submission game. He thinks Means' grappling advantage could be key, as Medić has poor takedown defense. He calls it a clear doger pass.
The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić, calling him more explosive and dangerous on the feet. He criticizes Tim Means as hitting a veteran decline and notes his loss to Matt Semelsberger. He highlights Medić's good cardio and nasty body kicks, predicting a TKO via liver shot. He also mentions Medić's near-finish of Orolbai and his ability to handle Means' grinding style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 2 | 104 of 143 | 72% | 134 of 178 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 51 of 103 | 49% | 56 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 1 | 39 of 53 | 73% | 44 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 0 | 48 of 69 | 69% | 73 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 29 of 50 | 58% | 32 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 104 of 143 | 72% | 66 of 103 | 33 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 56 of 87 | 30 of 35 | 18 of 21 |
| André Fialho | 51 of 103 | 49% | 32 of 75 | 15 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 86 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 39 of 53 | 73% | 21 of 34 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 36 | 8 of 10 | 6 of 7 |
| André Fialho | 19 of 47 | 40% | 8 of 31 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 48 of 69 | 69% | 33 of 53 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 39 | 14 of 16 | 12 of 14 |
| André Fialho | 29 of 50 | 58% | 24 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 39 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 17 of 21 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Means can ugly up the fight and squeak out a close decision. He notes Means is tough, busy, and has fought a who's who of welterweights. However, he is concerned about Means' age (39) and Fialho's power. He has very low confidence.
Big Brady picks André Fialho to win by first-round knockout, citing his power advantage and youth (10 years younger). He notes both fighters have poor durability, but Fialho hits like a truck. He worries about Fialho's horrible cardio and thinks he must finish early. He says nobody should be confident on either side.
Cody picks Tim Means as a live underdog, citing Fialho's poor chin and hesitancy against strikers. He notes Means's crafty striking, wrestling, and experience. He believes Means can outwork Fialho, who has been knocked out by lesser competition.
Daniel hesitantly picks Fialho based on youth and power, but admits he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes Means is 39 and doesn't react well to shots anymore, while Fialho has three straight KO losses. He thinks Means is the better technical fighter but age and chin are concerns. He expects a violent fight and leans Fialho by KO, but with low confidence.
Lucrative James feels Fialho will knock out Means, citing Means' declining durability and reaction times. He likes Fialho's left hook and calm striking style. He considers betting Fialho inside the distance but notes the line is -135, which he doesn't love. He also mentions Means decision as a possible hedge.
The host picks Fialho to win by first-round knockout, despite normally fading him. He notes Fialho's power advantage and Means' questionable durability and age (39). He expects Fialho to land a barrage early and finish Means. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a safer play, expecting either an early Fialho KO or a late Means finish.
Paul picks Tim Means simply because he refuses to lay chalk on Fialho. He notes both fighters are quick starters and expects a finish. He has no strong confidence but likes the plus money.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward André Fialho but changes his pick to Tim Means after a lengthy internal debate. He worries about Means' age and declining athleticism but has a 'sneaky feeling' Means will catch Fialho. He notes Fialho's tendency to get knocked out and Means' effective one-two combinations. He predicts a TKO in round one, with Means backing Fialho against the cage and landing a one-two. He admits he is hesitant and almost picked Fialho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 0 | 40 of 87 | 45% | 45 of 92 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 33 of 92 | 35% | 42 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 0 | 32 of 64 | 50% | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 18 of 58 | 31% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 40 of 87 | 45% | 16 of 52 | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 74 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 33 of 92 | 35% | 29 of 86 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 86 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 32 of 64 | 50% | 10 of 32 | 16 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 52 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 18 of 58 | 31% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 52 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 8 of 23 | 34% | 6 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 15 of 34 | 44% | 13 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.
Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.
Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.
Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.
Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.
Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 0 | 47 of 115 | 40% | 143 of 215 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 42 of 78 | 53% | 56 of 96 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 25 of 42 | 59% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 74 of 79 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 16 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 47 of 115 | 40% | 18 of 64 | 18 of 36 | 11 of 15 | 37 of 103 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
| Tim Means | 42 of 78 | 53% | 25 of 52 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 11 | 35 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 17 of 49 | 34% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 25 of 42 | 59% | 16 of 29 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 20 of 53 | 37% | 7 of 32 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 13 of 29 | 44% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 10 of 13 | 76% | 3 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Tim Means | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
An interesting, all-action welterweight contest will serve as the co-main attraction of this Fight Night event, with a storied veteran battling it out against a man fighting his way back to contention. At 38 years of age, Means (32-13-1, 1 NC; 14-10, 1 NC UFC) is still cruising in the division, with three wins in his last four including a few stellar performances over Nicolas Dalby and Mike Perry in recent memory. While his adversary Griffin (18-9, 6-7 UFC) started off going just 3-6 in the Octagon, he has turned things around as of late with a similar 3-1 stretch as Means. Drawing the assignment is referee Dan Miragliotta, and the 170-pounders do not touch gloves as they want to immediately get down to business. They start trading almost immediately, with rangy punches and chopping low kicks to match the other. Griffin fires a left hand over the top, and a right hand knocks Means down to his backside. Griffin leaps on top to finish the job, and Means latches on to an armbar off his back to keep his man honest and survive the onslaught. As Means continues to work, he turns to his side, grabs hold of a leg and drives Griffin back to the wall. Means separates, and he appears to have his bearings back as he measures a high kick from his lead leg and a body kick from his rear. Means just misses with a knee as Griffin bears down on him with a combination, and he works the calf to slow down the advancing Griffin. “The Dirty Bird” whiffs on a one-two into a head kick, but the calf kick that follows does connect. Griffin throws fire with a right hand to stun Means for a moment, as he chains it into a power punch that Means tanks seemingly without issue. Means continues to do work on the upper calf, making investments as he also strikes the body. Griffin snaps out a jab that gest Means’ attention, and a right hand that follows it stings Means. Means gives chase with a high kick, and Griffin walks through a pair of open-handed slaps so that he can shoot in for a double. Means keeps his balance as they remain clinched until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Means strikes first in the form of a slapping low kick. The legs from Means continue to fly, and he draws Griffin into a brief but fierce slugfest. The punches turn to slaps for Means, which could signify some sort of damage to a hand, but he shucks any of those concerns by throwing a punch that pops Griffin in the chops. Means keeps Griffin guessing with head kicks, and Griffin finds his way in to land a heavy low kick. Means slaps him upside the head like a Diaz brother, only they are intended as damaging strikes and not disrespectful ones. Griffin jabs his way in, and he blocks a head kick once closing in. Griffin intercepts a rushing Means with a kick to the lead calf, and Means winces and tries to pay Griffin back. Means cuts his opponent off as he advances, and this slows the offense coming back his direction. Means works the body with a left and a right, and he slides back to plant the ball of his foot on the breadbasket before Griffin can land him. The two trade body kicks, and Means jumps at his adversary with a knee that glances off the side. Griffin considers a level change, and as this fails, he hops back. Means hammers a low kick on the inside of the knee, and this slows the movement momentarily. Means walks face-first into a right hand, and this rocks Means and separates him from his balance. As Means falls to the ground, Griffin finds himself taking top position while punching the side. They trade short blows as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 3
Means comes out of his corner aggressively, and he strikes his way into a takedown effort. Griffin stuffs it and drops to his knees, and Means smashes his own knee into the sternum. Griffin reels and whirls around to counter Means’ takedown with his own attempt, and he manages to suck Means’ legs out and drag him to the floor. Means squeezes tightly to keep Griffin pinned to him, and he lands several heel strikes to the thigh as he constantly remains busy off his back with irritating blows. Griffin remains heavy with top pressure and not willing to sit up and fall into potential submission danger, as he wisely grinds out and considers a guard pass. Means turns to his side in an effort to escape, but Griffin hangs on to keep him trapped. Means scoots his back to the wall, only for “Pain” to yank him back down. When Griffin postures up to rain down blows, Means attacks with a submission attempt that he uses to stand back up. Griffin pressures him against the wall and locks his hands with a double, and this sets Means on his seat again much to the disappointment of “The Dirty Bird.” Means continues to smack Griffin with short, frustrating strikes to the body and head, all while working his way to his knees to get upright. Griffin pursues a single, and he lowers his head right into a knee that Means cracks him with. Means takes Griffin down to turn the tables, and he rips the body with a fierce knee before securing a double with seconds to spare. For one final exclamation point, Means lifts his opponent up and slams him down hard. The fight comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means (29-28 Griffin)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)
The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Tim Means via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Griffin's power has improved recently, as seen in his knockout of Aalon Cruz, while Means' durability has declined with age and damage. He mentions that Means has been hurt in recent fights by lesser punchers, and Griffin's durability is excellent. He expects Griffin to land hard shots and finish Means.
Cody acknowledges Tim Means' plus money appeal but points to Means' durability issues at 38 years old and his tendency to fade in later rounds. He notes that Means has been relying more on wrestling as he ages, but Max Griffin has good takedown defense (as seen against Neil Magny) and a solid jab. Cody expects Griffin to beat Means to the jab, stuff takedowns, and eventually land a big shot or win two rounds. He is not betting the fight but picks Griffin.
Daniel Levi picks Max Griffin, citing his momentum, confidence, and aspirations to break into the top 15. He notes Griffin's dangerous striking and recent close fight with Neil Magny. He questions Tim Means' durability and suggests Means may be near retirement. However, he has no interest in laying the -190 price and will just watch.
Jacob picks Tim Means, expecting him to survive Griffin's early power and then wear him down with pace, pressure, and wrestling. He compares it to Griffin's fight with Neil Magny, where Griffin faded. Jacob thinks Means wins by decision.
Griffin has athletic advantages and more left in the tank compared to Means, who is slowing down. Means has better combinations but Griffin's power could catch him. Griffin by knockout at +250 is appealing, but no bet at the current moneyline. Live betting Griffin if Means has early success is a potential strategy.
Paul leans toward Tim Means as a dog, expecting a close stand-up fight where Means may get a hot start. However, he admits Means' cardio and durability are concerns, and he does not love the bet. He picks Means for the show but says he won't bet it, noting the over 2.5 rounds at -160 seems about right.
The MMA Guru picks Max Griffin over Tim Means, believing Griffin's calf kicks will be effective against Means' heavy lead leg. He notes Griffin's improved boxing and ability to drop opponents, as seen against Neil Magny. He thinks Means, at 38 and coming off a loss to Kevin Holland, will struggle with Griffin's pressure and predicts Griffin wins by 29-28 decision, taking over as the fight goes on.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 25 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 53 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 18 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 27 of 70 | 38% | 44 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 21 of 46 | 45% | 8 of 25 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 36 of 90 | 40% | 26 of 71 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 10 | 33 of 85 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 27 of 70 | 38% | 21 of 57 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 65 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-275), Means (+220)
Round 1
With the loss of Cerrone vs. Lauzon (again), this welterweight banger has been elevated to the co-main event slot. UFC President Dana White should keep his checkbook handy to write out a bonus for this one (and the rest of the night, to boot), if the histories of “The Dirty Bird” Means (32-12-1, 1 NC; 14-9, 1 NC UFC) and “Trailblazer” Holland (22-7, 1 NC; 9-4, 1 NC UFC) are any indication of what to expect now. Identical knockout rates of 59% are celebrated by both men, and they have both landed exactly five submissions to their credit as well. Good-spirited action and excitement is about to come, and referee Kerry Hatley practically has to keep them back in their corners before sprinting out to battle. The 170ers do touch gloves, and Means uses a push kick to the knee to back Holland away from him early. Holland paws out with a left over the head, and Means walks in to brawl. Holland steps back and rips a left to the jaw on the inside, and he lands again to force Means into a double-leg takedown attempt. The crowd starts to boo immediately, and Holland shoves him back and lets go with a left. Holland powers off the cage wall with a flurry of fists, and Means greets him with a few of his own. Means takes a few punches on the inside to land a few, and “Trailblazer” slashes with a clean elbow over the top to break them up. Holland goes to the body with a side kick and then up high with a head kick, and he charges in with a knee right down Broadway. Means is tough and does not flinch, and instead spins with a wheel kick. Means catches a knee from his opponent, and he lifts Holland up and sets him down on the mat. Holland springs up and connects with three blistering punches to sting Means. Means tries to stop the blows from scoring by tying Holland up and pressing him into the wall, and he gathers himself and works the thigh with knees. Holland pushes away to take the center of the cage back, and he sticks out several jabs and a head kick. Means blows his nose out from the kick, and Holland puts three punches on him to knock Means’ head around. They talk to one another with seemingly friendly banter about hitting each other, and Holland takes a few steps back to get off three kicks in rapid succession. Holland chains together a few punches, and Means replies and draws a huge smile out of “Trailblazer.” They slug it out recklessly and entertainingly, and Holland resets first so he can let loose with a high kick. Holland splits the guard with a left hand, and Means is hurt. Two more punches from the Texan connect cleanly, forcing a takedown effort from Means. Holland hits the mat and powers right back up, and the round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
Gloves get touched by the action-packed welterweights before engaging, and they both score side kicks to start off the round. Means targets the body, and Holland tags him with four or five punches before Means can react. Holland spins with a back fist that comes up short, and when he turns about, Holland goes to his lead leg. Means blocks several punches, and Holland swarms him with punches before measuring Means with punches as Means shells up against the wall ready to counter.
Holland lets Means off the hook so that he can fight at his safer range, and when back in his preferred distance, he clocks Means with a right hand that strips Means legs away almost instantly. Before falling over, Means leans into a takedown try, but he leaves his neck exposed. They do not even hit the mat before Holland uses his long arms to snake around the neck, where he snatches up a smooth brabo choke. It is tight in a hurry, and when the two land on the ground, Means turns to his side but is in even worse position than before. Knowing his goose is cooked, Means does not fight it any further or risk going out from this blood choke, and he wisely surrenders.
“Trailblazer” has announced himself as a force to be reckoned with in his new division, and the Texas crowd bellows its affection for its local fighter.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Tim Means R2 1:28 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his striking accuracy and power. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but believes Tim Means doesn't have the raw athleticism or power to exploit it like others. He thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy but still picks Holland.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round knockout. He notes Holland has a significant reach advantage and power, while Means is older with diminishing durability and chin. He believes Means' best chance is grappling, but Means rarely implements that game plan, and Holland's BJJ black belt and improved get-up game should keep the fight standing where Holland can knock him out.
Cody is high on Kevin Holland at 170, citing his improved takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and size advantage. He thinks Tim Means lacks the wrestling and cardio to exploit Holland, and Holland will chip away for a late finish or decision. He notes Holland's guard is active and Means' recent wins are over lower-level competition.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win via an opportunistic finish, citing Holland's unorthodox style and ability to create chaos. He acknowledges Tim Means is well-rounded and may have early success, but believes Holland's length and creativity will prevail. However, he is not confident Holland covers the -300 spread, noting Holland's takedown defense issues and that Means can mix in takedowns. Levi sees it as a high-variance fight where Holland finds a way, but the price is too steep for a comfortable bet.
Paul agrees Holland should win but is wary of the -275 price. He notes Holland's size, reach, and guard are advantages, but the high favorite line gives him pause. He doesn't love the matchup for Means but isn't sure he'll bet Holland at that price.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, calling it straightforward. He notes Holland's reach advantage and youth, and believes Tim Means will get cracked and hurt. He predicts Holland will win by KO via elbows in the clinch in the first round, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. He doesn't worry about Holland's grappling at welterweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 0 | 53 of 93 | 56% | 94 of 134 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:03 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 54 of 116 | 46% | 84 of 146 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 28 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 53 of 93 | 56% | 20 of 55 | 29 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 70 | 17 of 19 | 4 of 4 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 54 of 116 | 46% | 37 of 93 | 13 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 88 | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 15 of 26 | 57% | 6 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 20 | 55% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 29 of 49 | 59% | 12 of 30 | 15 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 36 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 24 of 60 | 40% | 17 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 9 of 18 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 19 of 36 | 52% | 12 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next at welterweight, the man formerly known as “Lokomotivo” now sports a fancy new nickname of “Danish Dynamite” as Dalby (19-3-1, 2 NC; 3-2-1, 1 NC UFC) squares off with longtime vet and longtime nicknamed “The Dirty Bird” Means (31-12-1, 1 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC). Action is the name of the game here, and referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full as these two throw down. There is no chance of a glove touch, as these two 170ers are intense and ready to start brawling. Means fires off a head kick early, and Dalby eats it on the chin and starts to brawl. Both men throw caution to the wind immediately, and they hammer one another with alternating shots. As Dalby closes in, Means hits a takedown and puts the Danish fighter on his back. Means passes to side control as he works elbows from on top, slowly and methodically working his way to either advance to mount or otherwise do some damage. When Dalby holds on to him to tie him up, Means slams him down with his chest. Means crawls Dalby over to the cage wall, where he starts smacking his foe in the face with heavy punches. Dalby gets to his knees as he looks to walk up the fence, and Means keeps him grounded and lands some punches. Dalby is practically gasping for air three minutes in, although it does not necessarily mean that he is spent. Means knees him in the chest when he stands up, and Dalby breaks free and bounces around to get his blood flowing again. Means kicks him in the body and fires off a few punches, and Dalby dances out of the way. “Danish Dynamite” looks to explode with a right hand across the forward bow, but Means sees it coming, parries it and gets shoved into the fence. A few strikes for Means have opened up a cut near the bridge of the nose on Dalby’s right eyebrows, and a sharp one-two nearly knocks Dalby off of his feet. “The Dirty Bird” keeps it dirty in the clinch, and he gets off an elbow or two before they break. Dalby shoots in for a takedown right as the round ends, but it does not succeed.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means
Round 2
Dalby fires off a few punches before rushing in to a takedown attempt, and Means is there to thump him in the body a few times. The welterweights tie up against the fence and score short punches, before breaking free. Dalby gets off a single leg kick, and then he changes it up to land flush to the body. Means aims a few punches up top, and a left hand splits the guard. Means sees its success and nails Dalby again, and one more gets Dalby’s attention. Means cracks Dalby on the chin, and the Danish fighter has quite a beard on him as he walks through everything to land a few of his own. Means targets the body and head indiscriminately, and Dalby walks in with a chain of punches into a knee. Dalby shoots in but gets shucked away just in time, and when they get back up, Dalby leaps forward with a left hand. Dalby works two right hands one after the other, and Means greets him with a left hand to the liver. Dalby slings a head kick, and they crash the pocket and score some body shots. When “Danish Dynamite” looses another body kick, Means rushes in to strike before clinching. Breaking free, Dalby slings kicks high and low, but Means’ responsive head kick is much more effective. Means kicks Dalby’s leg out from beneath him, and “The Dirty Bird” hops on top in side control to deal some damage. Means keeps a heavy top pressure to ride out the round, using a few short shoulder strikes when Dalby tries to wall-walk with his feet. Means keeps this position until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means
Round 3
Means sprints out of his corner to throw a body kick and a left hand, and Dalby is there to fire right back. In a wild exchange, Dalby nails Means with a right hand, smashing the nose of “The Dirty Bird” and hurting him for the first time. Means stumbles back to the wall, and Dalby wraps him up against the fence while flirting with trips. Means spins him around and considers a single leg takedown, but he cannot ground the Danish fighter. Means backs off and re-engages, pressing Dalby tightly into the cage. This stalemate continues for quite some time, as both men look to clear any cobwebs. Dalby knees Means in the face once to break free, and he clips Means again with a strike. Dalby throws everything he has at Means, but the American grabs hold of him and pins him back to the cage wall. Means changes levels for a single, and he chains it into a double leg takedown, but neither succeed. All the while, precious seconds for Dalby are ticking off the clock, who is trying to break free but cannot escape the grip of “The Dirty Bird.” Means scores a few short punches to the body, grinding Dalby out and landing enough to stave off any referee intervention. When Dalby breaks the grip, Means gives him a shove into the fencing, where he clinches up again. At the 10-second clapper, Dalby tries desperately to get off, hurting Means again. Means gloms on to him, tying him up to the final bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
The Official Result
Tim Means def. Nicolas Dalby via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tim Means, citing his high-volume striking, underrated wrestling, and ability to avoid damage. He notes Means picks his shots and takes opponents down when needed. He expects Means to win a decision. He likes less on Means and more on Dalby for the monkey knife fight line.
Big Brady picks Tim Means to win by decision, citing superior striking stats (5.16 sig strikes/min, 48% accuracy, 61% striking defense) and Dalby's negative strike differential. He notes Dalby has been dropped in four of seven UFC fights but never KO'd. He thinks Means will out-volume Dalby on the feet, as Dalby rarely wrestles (only one takedown in last five fights). He is confident Means is the better striker.
Cody picks Dalby as a live underdog. He notes Dalby's toughness and heart, and that Means has lost as a favorite before. He points out that Means had a fight cancelled last week, which could disrupt his preparation. Cody also mentions Dalby's reach advantage and that Means is 37 with wear and tear. He thinks Dalby can grind Means against the cage and take over late if Means doesn't finish early.
Jacob picks Nicolas Dalby, jokingly citing that Dalby fought Darren Till to a draw in 2015 and outstruck him. He seems to be half-joking but picks Dalby to win. He does not provide serious technical analysis.
Means is a much better striker with higher output than Dalby. If Means keeps the fight vertical, he will light up Dalby. Dalby has knockout power but Means' durability is a concern; however, Means should avoid getting knocked out. Means' efficiency and tight striking will earn him a decision. Dalby's speed and timing could pose issues, but Means is the more proven striker.
Paul picks Tim Means, citing Means' better striking and underrated wrestling. He notes Means was supposed to fight last week and had a cancelled bout, but that might not be a big issue. He thinks Means has the skills to win, but acknowledges Dalby's toughness and that Means can fade. He is not confident and suggests watching weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Means by first-round submission (d'arce choke), citing his crisp boxing and ability to land straight shots down the pipe. He identifies defensive holes in Dalby's striking, as seen in the Jesse Ronson fight, and believes Means will hurt Dalby, prompting a bad takedown that leads to a choke. He trusts Means' composure and experience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 0 | 64 of 161 | 39% | 69 of 166 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 128 of 192 | 66% | 143 of 207 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 27 of 40 | 67% | 30 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 20 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 44 of 60 | 73% | 44 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 35 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 57 of 92 | 61% | 69 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 64 of 161 | 39% | 44 of 134 | 8 of 12 | 12 of 15 | 62 of 157 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 128 of 192 | 66% | 86 of 147 | 26 of 28 | 16 of 17 | 121 of 184 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 14 of 31 | 45% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 27 of 40 | 67% | 18 of 31 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 20 of 60 | 33% | 11 of 46 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 44 of 60 | 73% | 28 of 43 | 10 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 42 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 30 of 70 | 42% | 26 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 57 of 92 | 61% | 40 of 73 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 55 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady hesitantly picks Tim Means to win by decision. He thinks Means is the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but has durability concerns after being knocked out recently. He notes Perry's headspace is questionable and he didn't look great against Gall, but Means is on short notice.
Daniel picks Means, citing his superior boxing and overall MMA skills. He notes Perry's lack of head movement and poor corner situation. He believes Means can stay disciplined, use volume, and mix in takedowns to avoid Perry's power. He thinks Means should be the favorite.
The host picks Tim Means to win by decision, noting his superior skill set and ability to keep Perry at range with leg kicks and teeps. He is skeptical of Perry's power and thinks Means can outpoint him. He would only bet Means if the line reaches plus 150.
The MMA Guru picks Mike Perry to win by unanimous decision (29-28), but expresses worry. He notes Means took the fight on short notice, and Perry has a full camp now. He expects Perry to use takedowns and outwork Means in the later rounds, but admits Means is dangerous and a full-camp Means might beat Perry.
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