UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Jul 13, 2016 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Katlyn Cerminara
4.58 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
4.48 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.31 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lauren Murphy
3.94 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
5.19 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.09 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Katlyn Cerminara - Fight History
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 66 of 152 43% 99 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Katlyn Cerminara 0 84 of 150 56% 122 of 189 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 22 of 32 68% 29 of 40 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:50
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 48 64% 46 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Maycee Barber 0 24 of 56 42% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Katlyn Cerminara 0 22 of 48 45% 35 of 62 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:52
3 Maycee Barber 0 20 of 64 31% 30 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 54 57% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 66 of 152 43% 44 of 122 21 of 27 1 of 3 43 of 124 23 of 28 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 84 of 150 56% 59 of 121 18 of 22 7 of 7 44 of 107 36 of 39 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 15 16 of 17 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 48 64% 26 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 24 20 of 22 2 of 2
2 Maycee Barber 24 of 56 42% 20 of 50 4 of 5 0 of 1 21 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 22 of 48 45% 12 of 37 6 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 42 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Maycee Barber 20 of 64 31% 15 of 54 4 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 56 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 54 57% 21 of 41 8 of 11 2 of 2 19 of 41 11 of 12 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds might be one of the safest bets on the card.
"I'm going to slightly lean Macy here but that's because of her recent surge she has basically won three fights in the time that Caitlyn has been away"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.

"I'm taking Barber I think she does win but the judges scare the crap about out of me on this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.

"I think you would take the underdog with you look at her last number of fights I guess you know what I mean"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.

"my pick is Macy Barber"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.

Cerminara by decision
"I believe Catlin has the chops to go out there and pull off an upset she should be able to utilize her style that she's been famous with which is just staying on the outside and utilizing her output"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.

"plus 180 CF do model you know taking one fight where she did what I think she's best at and saying that like well why didn't she do and like you know against Jessica I"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.

"I'm definitely going to go with Macy Barber"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 76 of 286 26% 76 of 286 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 98 of 279 35% 99 of 280 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 25 of 86 29% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Manon Fiorot 0 23 of 94 24% 23 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 43 of 95 45% 43 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Manon Fiorot 0 28 of 106 26% 28 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 26 of 100 26% 27 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 76 of 286 26% 35 of 223 21 of 40 20 of 23 72 of 278 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 98 of 279 35% 58 of 225 16 of 28 24 of 26 96 of 273 2 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 25 of 86 29% 13 of 65 5 of 12 7 of 9 25 of 84 0 of 2 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 29 of 84 34% 15 of 64 4 of 10 10 of 10 29 of 82 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 23 of 94 24% 12 of 74 5 of 14 6 of 6 21 of 91 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 43 of 95 45% 29 of 76 7 of 12 7 of 7 43 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 28 of 106 26% 10 of 84 11 of 14 7 of 8 26 of 103 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 26 of 100 26% 14 of 85 5 of 6 7 of 9 24 of 96 2 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo leans Manon Fiorot, citing her superior striking, power, and takedowns. He acknowledges that Katlyn Chookagian knows how to win decisions and could steal a close fight, but believes Fiorot should be better everywhere. He advises no money or parlays on Fiorot.

"I am gonna pick man in here because she should literally be better absolutely anywhere but if anyone is going to steal a decision on this card it is Caitlyn chikagian"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Fiorot to win by decision. He highlights Fiorot's power advantage and ability to mix in takedowns, noting she took down black belts Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva. Cerminara has low striking accuracy (35%) and poor takedown defense (54%). He believes Fiorot can land the more impactful shots and control the fight on the ground if needed.

"I like Fiora here quite a bit I like her to win by decision I don't really see a finish in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody is sold on Fiorot, calling her the best in the division not named Valentina. He notes her speed, power, and complete game, and that she has been rolling through opponents. He thinks Chookagian's volume lacks impact and that Fiorot is better in every aspect. Cody expects Fiorot to win and eventually challenge for the title.

"I think fioros the real deal"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Connor picks Cerminara, believing she has improved her boxing and ability to create memorable contact, making her a consistent round winner. He notes that Fiorot is often one-and-done with her striking and leaves openings, which Cerminara can exploit. He sees this as a natural gatekeeper role for Cerminara against a rising prospect.

"I think I'm gonna pick Chookagian. I think she's found her role as the gatekeeper to the elite in this division."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He thinks Fiorot can match or surpass Katlyn Cerminara's volume while minimizing strikes absorbed, citing Fiorot's 70% defense. He notes Fiorot has takedown defense and has landed takedowns herself. Levi respects Cerminara's experience and ability to win decisions, but believes Fiorot is the more promising fighter with fewer holes. He does not see value at -215 but picks Fiorot to pass this test.

Picks Fiorot by decision.
"my official pick is going to be uh manofio decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Fiorot does the same thing as Chookagian but with more power and efficiency. She has good takedown defense and can redirect momentum. Chookagian may try to grapple, but Fiorot is stronger in the clinch. Fiorot by decision at -110 is a better line than the moneyline.

Fiorot by decision at -110
"give me fiod give me fiod by decision which is -110 much better line than a money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul likely picks Fiorot but is not confident, noting that it could be a close striking battle. He mentions Chookagian's experience and that Fiorot is still improving. Paul thinks Fiorot should win but acknowledges it could be a split decision.

"likely rules but I can't say I got a whole lot of confidence in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) by TKO. He believes Fiorot's stand-up is superior and that she will hurt Chookagian with body kicks, then swarm for a TKO. He notes Chookagian's tendency for close decisions and Fiorot's youth and improvement.

TKO
"I'm actually going to go over TKO for man on Fiora here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Zane picks Fiorot, citing her size, power, and ability to make Cerminara uncomfortable. He notes that Cerminara has struggled against good athletes who can get to her, and Fiorot's strength and reach will pose problems. He acknowledges it's a coin flip but leans on Fiorot's power and the fact that Cerminara's recent wins have been against smaller opponents.

"I'm going to pick Manon Fiorot. I think that the fight is ripe for Chookagian to play spoiler, but I still don't trust her to pull that off against somebody who can match her for size and speed."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 63 of 222 28% 71 of 230 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 169 32% 84 of 204 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 62 32% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 34 20% 15 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 61 39% 27 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 15 of 46 32% 28 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:01
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 19 of 99 19% 19 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 33 of 89 37% 41 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 63 of 222 28% 42 of 175 20 of 44 1 of 3 56 of 210 7 of 12 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 55 of 169 32% 28 of 124 8 of 23 19 of 22 49 of 156 3 of 7 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 62 32% 13 of 46 7 of 15 0 of 1 17 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 34 20% 5 of 28 1 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 61 39% 17 of 48 6 of 12 1 of 1 23 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 15 of 46 32% 7 of 34 2 of 5 6 of 7 13 of 41 1 of 2 1 of 3
3 Katlyn Cerminara 19 of 99 19% 12 of 81 7 of 17 0 of 1 16 of 94 3 of 5 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 33 of 89 37% 16 of 62 5 of 14 12 of 13 32 of 86 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

"i think it's probably decision i think it's probably just going to be one of these try to keep ahead on the punch stats and stay to the outside type fights but caitlyn jake again rightful favorite and i uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Chookagian by decision +120
"don't overthink this fight you just take shook by decision and be on your way i mean she pretty much out volumes everyone that she takes on she only ever really gets finished by you know the jessica andrades or …"
WIN vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 72 of 177 40% 81 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:34
Jennifer Maia 0 52 of 171 30% 60 of 180 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 51 39% 21 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Jennifer Maia 0 15 of 49 30% 17 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 23 of 90 25% 24 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 72 of 177 40% 44 of 136 21 of 32 7 of 9 68 of 171 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 52 of 171 30% 31 of 143 5 of 8 16 of 20 48 of 167 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 16 of 41 39% 8 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 1 of 1 6 of 8 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 8 of 13 2 of 3 17 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 15 of 49 30% 9 of 40 2 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 36 of 85 42% 26 of 69 7 of 12 3 of 4 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 23 of 90 25% 15 of 80 2 of 3 6 of 7 22 of 89 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.

"caitlyn chicago's the pick i think this fight looks very similar to the first fight with a little more emphasis on grappling from maya"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.

"jimmy choo kagan by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"the minus 180 price tag yeah it doesn't look great but by decision which is where this is very likely headed that doesn't look bad to me whatsoever"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.

"i would lean chew kegen to edge two rounds but like it's not gonna surprise me one bit if maya comes out here with a better game plan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.

"i'm going to be going with catelyn chicagan here and i do believe she wins this fight once again via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"i'll go to chicago and say the exact same thing plays out as we had seen before because i can't really trust maya to go in there and secure takedowns early and often"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).

"i'm gonna go with caitlyn chukagi in here she's got better stand up than jennifer meyer"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 127 of 292 43% 135 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 89 of 196 45% 129 of 238 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 37 of 91 40% 43 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 32 of 56 57% 36 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 48 45% 58 of 86 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 55 of 125 44% 55 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 35 of 92 38% 35 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 127 of 292 43% 87 of 236 31 of 46 9 of 10 121 of 286 6 of 6 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 89 of 196 45% 60 of 162 24 of 29 5 of 5 85 of 192 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 37 of 91 40% 21 of 67 13 of 20 3 of 4 33 of 87 4 of 4 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 32 of 56 57% 17 of 38 13 of 16 2 of 2 29 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 76 46% 24 of 62 9 of 12 2 of 2 34 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 55 of 125 44% 42 of 107 9 of 14 4 of 4 54 of 124 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 35 of 92 38% 24 of 79 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.

"I will take viviana rougea to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i agree with you this is a spot i like from a monkey knife fight uh perspective and i would hit the double over"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.

dog or pass situation
"i'm going to pick vv as well i i do think it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.

Chookagian by decision
"i like it or 2k in here minus 135 i think is a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (54.5 for Chookagian, 37.5 for Araújo). Fight goes to distance at -400.
"the pick officially will be caleb chicago but again this is another interesting opportunity to look at it from a live betting standpoint"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with caitlyn chukagi in here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 69 of 230 30% 69 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 60 of 197 30% 60 of 197 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 72 37% 27 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 80 30% 24 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 78 23% 18 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 69 of 230 30% 45 of 190 11 of 22 13 of 18 68 of 227 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 60 of 197 30% 31 of 134 17 of 46 12 of 17 59 of 196 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 72 37% 11 of 51 7 of 10 9 of 11 27 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 60 35% 11 of 42 4 of 11 6 of 7 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 80 30% 19 of 71 2 of 5 3 of 4 23 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 17 of 71 23% 8 of 51 6 of 15 3 of 5 17 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 78 23% 15 of 68 2 of 7 1 of 3 18 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 66 33% 12 of 41 7 of 20 3 of 5 21 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

"the picks calvio by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

"i'm gonna go with cynthia cavilla calvillo to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

"I'm going to go with Tran to win this fight via decision as uh you know if this fight does primarily play out on the feet she could absolutely steal it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

"going to go with cynthia calvio getting the unanimous decision win"
TKO (body punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade despite the size disadvantage, citing her superior wrestling and power. He notes Chookagian has poor takedown defense and is often out-landed but wins decisions due to volume. He expects Andrade to close the distance, get takedowns, and land harder shots, winning a decision. He is wary of judges favoring Chookagian.

"give me androge to win here i'm going to say bye decision i don't think a finish is off the table"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade because she has fought at a higher level in strawweight and has the skills to pressure and beat Cerminara. He worries about Andrade's height disadvantage but believes she can take the fight to the ground and win the later rounds. He expects Andrade to win the second and third rounds, possibly losing the first.

"i think android gets it down against true kagan unless she shows up like a fat pudding and doesn't look good at fly away"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Lauren Murphy - Fight History
LOSS vs Eduarda Moura
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 145 26% 67 of 179 2 of 9 22% 2 0 1:03
Eduarda Moura 0 64 of 235 27% 74 of 248 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 6 of 33 18% 13 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
Eduarda Moura 0 19 of 58 32% 26 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
2 Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 51 21% 27 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Eduarda Moura 0 20 of 77 25% 22 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:23
3 Lauren Murphy 0 21 of 61 34% 27 of 68 1 of 5 20% 2 0 0:59
Eduarda Moura 0 25 of 100 25% 26 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 38 of 145 26% 38 of 144 0 of 0 0 of 1 34 of 140 4 of 5 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 64 of 235 27% 52 of 221 1 of 2 11 of 12 64 of 234 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 6 of 33 18% 6 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 1 6 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 19 of 58 32% 14 of 51 0 of 1 5 of 6 19 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Lauren Murphy 11 of 51 21% 11 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 20 of 77 25% 17 of 74 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 25 of 100 25% 21 of 96 1 of 1 3 of 3 25 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Angelo believes Eduarda Moura is younger, faster, and a better grappler than the 41-year-old Lauren Murphy, who hasn't fought in two years. He thinks Murphy's toughness won't be enough against Moura's aggressive grappling and solid takedowns. He hates the -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.

Hates -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.
"Eduarda Mora is going to be the pick. I hate that she's minus 600."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Big Brady is disgusted by the -600 line on Eduarda Moura. He notes Moura's poor cardio and low volume, and Lauren Murphy's 70% takedown defense. However, he picks Moura by decision because Murphy is 41, hasn't fought in 2.5 years, and this is her retirement fight. He is not confident in the line.

decision
"I'm going to pick more here to win by decision, but I just don't see in what world she looks anywhere minus 600."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

The host is hesitant about this pick, noting that he doesn't understand why Moura is such a heavy favorite. He acknowledges Moura's grappling strength but also points out that Murphy has a physicality and striking advantage and could make the fight close. Ultimately, he expects Moura to win bits and pieces of the fight and get her hand raised on the scorecards.

"Mora again, prohibitive favorite. I don't really understand why. Uh she might be strong enough in the grappling realm to really put it on the 42-year-old uh Lauren Murphy, who's also been out of the cage for 2 and 1/2 …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

The MMA Guru picks Eduarda Moura, citing her better grappling entries and fight IQ in knowing when to shoot for takedowns. He heavily criticizes Lauren Murphy's last performance against Jessica Andrade, where she took a record amount of damage and had no answer. He notes Murphy's long layoff and age, and expects Moura to outwrestle and outstrike her for a 30-27 decision.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Eduardo Mora over Lauren Murphy. Eduardo Mora... I think she's got better grappling entries and I think that's going to be the difference here."
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 100 of 293 34% 103 of 296 0 of 15 0% 0 0 0:09
Lauren Murphy 0 231 of 369 62% 237 of 375 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 22 of 91 24% 24 of 93 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:08
Lauren Murphy 0 61 of 107 57% 62 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 29 of 95 30% 29 of 95 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:01
Lauren Murphy 0 75 of 121 61% 78 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 49 of 107 45% 50 of 108 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Lauren Murphy 0 95 of 141 67% 97 of 143 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 100 of 293 34% 81 of 268 14 of 19 5 of 6 90 of 276 10 of 17 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 231 of 369 62% 161 of 292 23 of 27 47 of 50 208 of 338 22 of 30 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 22 of 91 24% 17 of 85 5 of 5 0 of 1 22 of 90 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 61 of 107 57% 31 of 75 3 of 3 27 of 29 58 of 101 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 29 of 95 30% 21 of 83 6 of 10 2 of 2 23 of 86 6 of 9 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 75 of 121 61% 52 of 96 12 of 13 11 of 12 62 of 103 12 of 17 1 of 1
3 Jéssica Andrade 49 of 107 45% 43 of 100 3 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 100 4 of 7 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 95 of 141 67% 78 of 121 8 of 11 9 of 9 88 of 134 7 of 7 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade with good confidence, noting she has only lost to the best (Valentina, Rose, Zhang, Weili). He is not high on Murphy, calling her lucky and noting she has lost fights that went her way. Andrade is younger, more powerful, has takedown upside, and will pressure with volume. He respects Murphy's toughness and durability, predicting a decision win for Andrade, but won't lay -450.

decision
"I will pick andraj with some pretty pretty good confidence and I'll say she does win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody picks Jéssica Andrade confidently, expecting her to smash Lauren Murphy. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, strength, and well-rounded skills. He says Murphy is scrappy but not on Andrade's level, and that Andrade will either finish via guillotine or win a brawl. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, but thinks Andrade's skill advantage is clear. He also mentions Andrade's cardio is not half bad.

considering Andrade inside the distance at +200; mentions Andrade's guillotine choke
"I think Jessica Andrade should absolutely smash I'm surprised it's jazera fair and still in the organization"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor picks Andrade, noting that Murphy is glacially slow and Andrade is much faster and harder hitting. He thinks Andrade's physicality will be too much, even if she can't overpower Murphy in the clinch. Connor also points out that good athletes can take Murphy down, and Andrade is a good athlete.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"Andrade is way faster and way harder hitting. I'm still going to pick Andrade."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul picks Jéssica Andrade but with some hesitation. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, and strength, and says Murphy's best version still struggles with Andrade's worst. He mentions Murphy's durability and cardio but thinks Andrade's skill set is superior. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, and says there is a world where Andrade gets tired. He thinks Andrade wins but wouldn't put a huge bet on her.

mentions Andrade's guillotine choke; says Murphy's durability is a concern
"Jessica and Josh has just got Lauren Murphy Pete everywhere if the fight stays standing Murphy's got that Scrappy striking style which will she'll stand in the pocket and exchange with you it's like Jessica's gonna drive to someone you …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The Guru confidently picks Andrade, saying she 'throws punches like a man' and has finished top competition like Chookagian, Calvillo, and Lemos in the first round. He criticizes Murphy's fighting ability, calling her 'fighting blind.' Despite Murphy doing better against Shevchenko on paper, the Guru sees a clear difference in performance and predicts Andrade will KO Murphy.

KO
"I'm going with Jessica and Raj getting the KO win over Lauren Murphy I don't see Murphy winning this one at all"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade but with hesitation. He notes Andrade has made wrong moves lately, regressing to a cautious style, but her physicality, speed, and power should be enough against the slower Murphy. Zane worries about Andrade's approach and Murphy's strength and durability, but believes Andrade is more likely to finish.

Andrade opened at -500, now -491; Murphy opened at +385, now +367. Zane advises staying away from betting on this fight.
"I'm still going to pick Andrade because if one of them's going to finish this fight it's going to be her."
WIN vs Miesha Tate
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 102 of 184 55% 128 of 211 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:18
Miesha Tate 0 85 of 164 51% 121 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 26 of 48 54% 35 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 47 53% 38 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 66 57% 53 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 55 58% 46 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 70 54% 40 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Miesha Tate 0 28 of 62 45% 37 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 102 of 184 55% 77 of 154 24 of 29 1 of 1 68 of 142 31 of 39 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 85 of 164 51% 61 of 122 18 of 34 6 of 8 67 of 138 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 26 of 48 54% 17 of 37 9 of 11 0 of 0 15 of 33 11 of 15 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 25 of 47 53% 12 of 26 10 of 18 3 of 3 16 of 34 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 38 of 66 57% 31 of 57 6 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 52 9 of 11 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 32 of 55 58% 27 of 44 4 of 9 1 of 2 25 of 46 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 38 of 70 54% 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 57 11 of 13 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 28 of 62 45% 22 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 26 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

unsure about betting
"so i'm gonna go with misha tate here anybody complaining that she's a little old she's 35 she's a younger fighter in this matchup so misha tate one big brother and i think she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

decision win; odds comment: minus 220 too high
"i'll take misha tate but minus 220. there's no way i would touch that but gimishita misha tate bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

"i gotta go with cupcake tate i know that you haven't eight minus one five"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i'll say it's dog or pass at the betting window you know with a price like that i'll lean misha tate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

"i think it's a very very clear dogger pass lauren murphy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

"i'm gonna go with misha tate here lauren murphy has no idea what she's doing she's terrible at fighting"
TKO (elbows and punches) R4 4:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 98 of 170 57% 132 of 204 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:04
Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 91 12% 19 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 20 of 39 51% 24 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Lauren Murphy 0 3 of 24 12% 3 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 17 58% 30 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Lauren Murphy 0 1 of 18 5% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 21 of 48 43% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Lauren Murphy 0 5 of 30 16% 6 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 47 of 66 71% 53 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
Lauren Murphy 0 2 of 19 10% 2 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 98 of 170 57% 62 of 126 19 of 24 17 of 20 72 of 137 6 of 8 20 of 25
Lauren Murphy 11 of 91 12% 4 of 73 3 of 13 4 of 5 11 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 20 of 39 51% 9 of 24 5 of 7 6 of 8 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 3 of 24 12% 2 of 21 0 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 17 58% 6 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lauren Murphy 1 of 18 5% 1 of 15 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 21 of 48 43% 9 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 7 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 5 of 30 16% 0 of 23 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 47 of 66 71% 38 of 56 5 of 6 4 of 4 25 of 38 4 of 6 18 of 22
Lauren Murphy 2 of 19 10% 1 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.

Angelo suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a finish in round three. He also mentions betting on Shevchenko by stoppage in each round to guarantee profit.
"Valentina will go down as one of the best to ever do it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.

fourth round tko
"i'm going to take valenciano to finish lauren murphy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.

over 2.5 rounds (-120), Shevchenko inside the distance
"i think we're all on the same page that she's going to win the fight she can win this fight anywhere she chooses to"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.

"give me valentina i guess the big question is inside the distance or by decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.

Jacob agrees with less less on Monkey Knife Fight. He mentions knockout Kings and might include Shevchenko.
"Chevy's gonna win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100; round 4 prop for Shevchenko
"i'm gonna go with chevchenko and i'm gonna call it fourth round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.

over 2.5 rounds (considering)
"breaking news shevchenko is my pick um i think she wins inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.

second round crucifix tko
"second round crucifix tko just like the andraj fight"
WIN vs Joanne Wood
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 80 of 148 54% 121 of 195 1 of 6 16% 0 0 4:54
Joanne Wood 0 123 of 228 53% 153 of 259 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 29 of 57 50% 40 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Joanne Wood 0 55 of 97 56% 64 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 16 of 22 72% 43 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:15
Joanne Wood 0 9 of 17 52% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 35 of 69 50% 38 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 0 59 of 114 51% 63 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 80 of 148 54% 66 of 131 14 of 17 0 of 0 55 of 119 10 of 13 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 123 of 228 53% 62 of 137 30 of 41 31 of 50 99 of 201 23 of 25 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 29 of 57 50% 25 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 3 of 5 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 55 of 97 56% 22 of 50 16 of 22 17 of 25 43 of 85 12 of 12 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 16 of 22 72% 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 9 of 17 52% 4 of 9 1 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Lauren Murphy 35 of 69 50% 27 of 60 8 of 9 0 of 0 28 of 61 7 of 8 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 59 of 114 51% 36 of 78 13 of 16 10 of 20 48 of 101 11 of 13 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood, citing her significant striking volume and accuracy advantage. He is concerned about Wood's takedown defense (58%) and the possibility of Murphy grinding out rounds with control time. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Wood out-striking Murphy to a decision win.

Wood by decision
"i will ultimately take jojo calderwood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Cody leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing her strength, grit, and takedown ability. He thinks she can grind out a decision if she mixes in takedowns. He notes Calderwood's tendency to fall apart in big spots and her poor takedown defense.

"lauren murphy plus 130 is where i would attack this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy for the upset, citing her toughness and will to win. He acknowledges Joanne Wood is more talented but inconsistent. He notes Murphy's takedowns have improved and that Wood has a history of poor performances. He expects a close fight and thinks Murphy's durability and pressure will edge out a split decision.

split decision
"i'll go with lauren murphy for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Joanne Wood

Wood is faster and a better striker, with superior Muay Thai and combinations. Murphy is stronger and may try to clinch, but Wood should outstrike her at range. Murphy doesn't take damage well, and Wood's speed should allow her to land cleanly. Wood likely wins a decision, though Murphy's strength is a slight concern.

Wood by decision
"I do like Joanne Wood again I think she's a little bit better all around... I do have some solid confidence in Joanne Wood to go out there and outstrike Lauren Murphy for the majority of 15 minutes and take …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Paul picks Calderwood but is not betting it. He thinks Calderwood's striking and reach advantage will be key, and that she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's toughness but believes Calderwood's technical skills will prevail.

"the official pick is going to be joanne calderwood but from a betting perspective i think i'm just looking to pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood, stating she looks technically sound with good knees in the clinch, while Murphy does not look good technically. He notes Wood's recent performance against Jessica Eye and believes Wood's technical edge will be decisive. He dismisses Murphy's wins as unimpressive.

"i'm going with joanne calderwood i've watched the pair of them fight"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:31 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 85 25% 32 of 96 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:10
Liliya Shakirova 0 23 of 75 30% 27 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 48 25% 18 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Liliya Shakirova 0 15 of 47 31% 16 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 37 27% 14 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:05
Liliya Shakirova 0 8 of 28 28% 11 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 22 of 85 25% 16 of 78 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 72 8 of 11 2 of 2
Liliya Shakirova 23 of 75 30% 7 of 45 7 of 17 9 of 13 23 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 48 25% 10 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 41 5 of 7 0 of 0
Liliya Shakirova 15 of 47 31% 4 of 27 6 of 12 5 of 8 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 37 27% 6 of 32 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2
Liliya Shakirova 8 of 28 28% 3 of 18 1 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady picks Lauren Murphy but is hesitant due to the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Murphy's experience against better competition and good takedown defense, but acknowledges Shakirova looks decent on tape. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"give me laura murphy by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy confidently, noting her transformation under a new doctor and her recent knockout wins. He believes Shakirova is a talented newcomer but is outclassed and outsized, and that Murphy's pressure and clinch work will be too much. He expects a unanimous decision or a TKO stoppage.

Most likely unanimous decision but a TKO stoppage wouldn't surprise
"i'm gonna go with lord murphy most likely unanimous decision but a tko stoppage somewhere along the way won't surprise me either"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

The host picks Lauren Murphy but is not confident, citing her experience, volume, and physicality. He notes that Shakirova is making her UFC debut on short notice and may struggle with the step up in competition. He sees value on Shakirova if she is a big dog.

Murphy by decision
"i'm going murphy here uh not the most confident in it either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lauren Murphy to win, noting that Shakirova is taking the fight on short notice and has lost to a fighter with a 4-4 record. He respects Murphy's technical fighting style and believes she will get the job done.

"i'm gonna go with lauren murphy getting it done mostly because lilia shakira... is taking it on short notice"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 44 of 174 25% 71 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:08
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 158 45% 92 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 54 22% 18 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 48 39% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 45 22% 20 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:44
Roxanne Modafferi 0 23 of 48 47% 36 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 75 29% 33 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 44 of 174 25% 34 of 152 5 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 163 5 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 158 45% 46 of 127 8 of 12 18 of 19 65 of 150 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 54 22% 9 of 46 1 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 48 39% 11 of 36 0 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 45 22% 8 of 37 2 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 23 of 48 47% 13 of 37 5 of 5 5 of 6 18 of 42 3 of 3 2 of 3
3 Lauren Murphy 22 of 75 29% 17 of 69 2 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 30 of 62 48% 22 of 54 3 of 3 5 of 5 28 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.

odds: Modafferi minus 120, Murphy plus 100; pick by decision
"I do favor Murphy to win here I think she's going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Roxanne"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.

"My pick will be Lauren Murphy in this spot as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.

"I'm gonna go over rocks and mowed a ferry here the odds are really close and I don't understand why... motor ferry gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 80 of 197 40% 107 of 228 2 of 4 50% 0 1 2:31
Andrea Lee 0 104 of 267 38% 107 of 271 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 32 of 80 40% 33 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Andrea Lee 0 43 of 104 41% 44 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Lauren Murphy 0 33 of 73 45% 41 of 84 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Andrea Lee 0 38 of 103 36% 39 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 15 of 44 34% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 60 38% 24 of 61 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 80 of 197 40% 70 of 181 9 of 15 1 of 1 75 of 190 5 of 7 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 104 of 267 38% 51 of 194 34 of 51 19 of 22 99 of 261 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 32 of 80 40% 28 of 74 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 43 of 104 41% 18 of 74 16 of 20 9 of 10 41 of 101 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Lauren Murphy 33 of 73 45% 30 of 68 2 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 38 of 103 36% 21 of 77 11 of 20 6 of 6 38 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 15 of 44 34% 12 of 39 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 60 38% 12 of 43 7 of 11 4 of 6 20 of 57 3 of 3 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee by decision, stating she is the better striker with more volume. He notes that Lauren Murphy has improved but still has a basic fighting style. He warns against betting at -365, but expects Lee to win a decision, possibly with close rounds.

I ain't laying -365 to find out
"I'm gonna go with Andrea Lee by decision but I would be very careful at the betting window"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The host picks Andrea Lee by decision, citing her speed, striking, and improved grappling. He believes she is the quicker fighter and can outpoint Lauren Murphy, though he is not willing to bet her straight at -340. He considers her as a parlay piece with Jon Jones.

Lee by decision, considered as parlay piece with Jones
"I like and really here I think that she you know how to strike Lauren Murphy take it to the ground if she needs to I think if she does get caught up against the fence she'll have a decent …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee because she is younger, more technical, and will light up Lauren Murphy with combinations on the feet. He notes Murphy's questionable losses and expects Lee to win a unanimous decision.

unanimous decision win
"I'm gonna go with and really both girls similar-sized Laura Murphy a bit chunkier I feel like this fight is gonna take place on the feet and really younger in the game a little bit more technical I think she's …"