UFC 184: Rousey vs. Zingano · Feb 28, 2015 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 184: Rousey vs. Zingano Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Holly Holm
3.13 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.87 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Raquel Pennington
4.1 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.32 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Holly Holm - Fight History
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:47 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kayla Harrison 0 2 of 12 16% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 51 of 71 71% 68 of 91 2 of 5 40% 1 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 46 of 62 74% 56 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:49
2 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 5 of 9 55% 12 of 18 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kayla Harrison 2 of 12 16% 1 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 51 of 71 71% 46 of 66 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 15 3 of 3 42 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 46 of 62 74% 43 of 59 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 41 of 51
2 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 0 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.

Will watch weigh-ins before betting
"I think Kayla absolutely blows through Holly home here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.

"I will back her and think that she does get that done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to pick Kayla Harrison too, obviously, but it does have to be said that like Kayla Harrison does not have a record littered with the most impressive fighters, let's say."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.

"I am definitely going with Kayla as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.

"I'm excited to see Kayla in the UFC I know a lot of people are on her I'm excited to see her on the UFC me personally man so that's another good fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.

submission, wait for weigh-ins
"I do lean Harrison as I think that her grappling will end up being too much for Holly Holm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.

"I think it's a clear dogger pass probably a pass for me but uh do you have an official pick... I find myself pulling the coward card on this one and going with Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.

"Kayla Harrison is going to get down Holly Holm and dominate her in this fight to a decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Zane mentions the line movement.
"My lane is that Kayla Harrison's clinched judo game is too good for Holly home to be just strong in the clench and make that what works for her."
No Contest (overturned) R2 0:38 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 27 of 39 69% 50 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:05
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 26 of 38 68% 49 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:42
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 19 of 33 57% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 27 of 39 69% 15 of 24 10 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 31 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 37 54% 9 of 21 7 of 10 4 of 6 13 of 28 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 26 of 38 68% 15 of 24 9 of 11 2 of 3 20 of 30 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 19 of 33 57% 8 of 17 7 of 10 4 of 6 12 of 24 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-170), Bueno Silva (+145)

Round 1
Likely the lone fight on the card with immediate championship implications, former champ Holm (15-6, 8-6 UFC) will look to send a message to the matchmakers that she is still at the top of her game at 41 years of age. Silva (10-2-1, 5-2-1 UFC), 10 years younger, is gunning for an upset, with upwards of five rounds to do just that. Needing no further introduction, referee Keith Peterson prepares for the bantamweight main attraction, one that opens up with a quick tap of gloves and not a lick of nonsense. Silva advances slowly, and Holm races at her and throws punches to back her away. Silva kicks the lead calf twice, and Holm gives her a scare with a head kick. Holm is moving quickly on the outside, and she sticks Silva twice with right hands before changing levels for a single. Silva stands up and elbows her foe in the face, leading Holm to let it go and squeeze against her in the clinch. They trade short knees on the inside to little effect, and Holm settles down to impose her weight and will. Holm pushes off and gets away without a strike on the break, and she lifts her leg up to check a body kick. Holm moves quickly to get Silva’s attention with a few punches, and she is out of the way before a counter finds its mark. Holm uses her momentum to clinch Silva up again. When they stall out, Holm times an elbow to break away, and she separates to back off only to lunge forward with a few punches. Silva wings an elbow that slams into Holm’s temple, and Holm has to shake it off and retreat. Silva chases with a few punches, and Holm kicks her way out of a clinch and starts working the body with her feet. Silva comes up short on a front kick, and Holm bounces around before Silva comes towards her. Holm dodges a spinning strike, and she takes a left on the chin and a subsequent right hand to stun Holm. The former champ shoots in for a double after getting her bell rung, and the Brazilian keeps her back to the cage wall and even lifts up a knee to hit Holm during the takedown. Silva motions to Peterson to get between them, but the round ends with Holm hanging on tight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm paces back and forth in her corner before they start fighting again, and Silva takes the center of the cage and gets kicked in the midsection on the way in. Cutting Holm off, Silva pops Holm with a right hook. The former kickboxer moves forward to clinch, and Silva slides her arm under the chin with her back leaned against the wall.
As Holm leans over for a potential takedown, Silva connects her arm to set up a ninja choke that is a modified, dangerous guillotine choke. Holm wriggles but is shocked at this situation, as she is trapped and cannot come up with a way to get out of the bad spot. “Sheetara” leans forward to press her chest down and put more pressure on the neck and submission grip, and she knows she has set the hook. Before she goes out, Holm frantically taps out on the side of her opponent.
Peterson rushes to the other side to see if there had been a tap, and Silva releases the grip before Peterson is able to get between them and separate them. This is a massive feather in the cap for the Brazilian, who is only the second fighter to ever submit Holm – and the first, Miesha Tate, did so to win the bantamweight title. The victorious Silva is the only betting underdog to have pulled off a win tonight, and she made a real statement and stamped herself as an instant contender for the champ-less division. In her post-fight interview, Silva speaks about her mental health issues, thanking those that helped her through the worst days that are behind her. Calling for a title shot, it could be entirely possible that “Sheetara” punched her ticket for that opportunity, as the line of contenders is hardly a determined one. If she gets the next crack at the 135-pound title, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mayra Bueno Silva def. Holly Holm R2 0:38 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is confident in Holly Holm, calling her the more technical striker with better takedown defense and offense. He notes Silva's losses have come via wrestling, and Holly can do the same. He thinks Holly can hold Silva against the cage, get takedowns, and avoid submissions. He placed a one-unit moneyline bet at minus 160. He disagrees with a DM suggesting Silva should be the favorite, stating Holly has earned the right to be favored.

one unit moneyline bet at -160
"Holly Holm confident pick and I have that one unit moneyline bet on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with hesitation, as he sees two clear outcomes: Holm dominating on the feet or Bueno Silva catching an armbar. He notes Holm is 41 but still looks good, and if she fights smart and keeps it standing, she should cruise. However, he worries Holm might take Bueno Silva down and get submitted. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Not betting this fight
"I'm gonna take Holly home here but I could 100 see a scenario where Holly Holm takes down Bueno Silva and gets like armbarred and I'm extremely annoyed because I bet holy home but luckily I'm I'm not betting this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm, comparing her to a Rolex watch that keeps going. He highlights her high ring IQ, ability to adapt, and wrestling improvements. He notes Silva's takedown defense issues and that Holm can mix in takedowns. He expects Holm to Matador from the outside, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, possibly winning championship rounds.

"I gotta go with Holly Holm as well minus 180 women's MMA again... she's like a Rolex watch man she just keeps going"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

James is leaning towards Mayra Bueno Silva as an underdog. He notes that Holly Holm is 41 years old and may be declining, while Bueno Silva has strong submission skills and finishing ability. He mentions that many respected bettors are on Holm, but he is skeptical of her grappling and thinks Bueno Silva could submit her. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards the dog side.

submission finish
"I do think that Buena Silva has some submission upside that Holly Holm maybe hasn't seen before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host believes Holm's veteran savvy and clinch-heavy approach will keep her safe from Bueno Silva's submissions. He expects Holm to mix striking, clinch, and grappling to cruise to a decision win. He notes Bueno Silva's lack of urgency and low volume as weaknesses.

"I think she wins by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul picks Holly Holm, citing her technical striking, experience, and ability to win at range. He expects a slow, tepid fight with Holm winning a decision, similar to the Vieira fight. He notes the line moved from -145 to -180, so he missed his betting window. He also mentions the PrizePicks over 90.5 significant strikes is tight and won't play it.

mentioned over 90.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks but won't play it
"I think experience wins out here she can win with volume on the feet... I expect a slow tepid Affair 25 minutes and home gets her hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva, noting Holm's activity, athleticism, and ability to control fights against the cage. He questions Silva's cardio for a five-round fight and doubts her submission threat, believing Holm can dictate where the fight takes place. He predicts Holm wins by decision or late stoppage.

"I'm gonna go with Holly Holm confident in her I think mayor Bueno Silva's dangerous but I don't think she's dangerous enough on the feet"
WIN vs Yana Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 32 of 63 50% 105 of 163 4 of 6 66% 0 0 9:49
Yana Santos 0 21 of 46 45% 120 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 7 of 16 43% 24 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:41
Yana Santos 0 12 of 25 48% 50 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
2 Holly Holm 0 16 of 33 48% 43 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Yana Santos 0 7 of 12 58% 38 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 9 of 14 64% 38 of 60 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:59
Yana Santos 0 2 of 9 22% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 32 of 63 50% 23 of 49 8 of 12 1 of 2 14 of 33 4 of 5 14 of 25
Yana Santos 21 of 46 45% 3 of 22 8 of 9 10 of 15 15 of 37 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yana Santos 12 of 25 48% 2 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 8 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 16 of 33 48% 12 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 1 12 of 21
Yana Santos 7 of 12 58% 1 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 5 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 9 of 14 64% 6 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 4
Yana Santos 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.

"Holly Holm is my most confident pick on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.

Holm by decision
"holms gonna go out there and hold Santa's against the cage for three rounds decision to win there you go but I would not be betting on this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.

Holly Holm by decision; over 2.5 rounds
"I would personally bet Holly Holm by decision because I don't want to bet Hollywood minus 250 straight up"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.

Mentions odds: Holm opened -200, currently -238; Santos opened +150, currently +193. Notes line is getting wider.
"I got to just pick Holly home to hold her on the fence for three rounds and for Yana Konitsuka to not be able to make anything that makes it look like she's won the fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.

Found plus money on Holly Holm (specific prop not stated)
"I found plus money for Holly Holm that I absolutely love."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.

"I think we're in store for another veteran performance here from Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.

"probably just Holly Holm holding her against a cage... I'm gonna go Holly home pushing her against a cage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.

Mentions odds: Holm -238, Santos +193. Notes the line is getting wider.
"You got to pick home Santos. She really would have to prove that she can win a fight like this."
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 96 of 157 61% 188 of 263 0 of 6 0% 0 0 10:03
Holly Holm 0 85 of 151 56% 122 of 190 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 6 of 9 66% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:36
Holly Holm 0 19 of 22 86% 40 of 45 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 21 66% 33 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:46
Holly Holm 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 18 of 30 60% 42 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:50
Holly Holm 0 23 of 37 62% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 21 of 29 72% 43 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:42
Holly Holm 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 96 of 157 61% 26 of 79 34 of 40 36 of 38 76 of 133 20 of 24 0 of 0
Holly Holm 85 of 151 56% 49 of 109 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 110 32 of 37 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 4 3 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0
Holly Holm 19 of 22 86% 3 of 5 14 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 6 14 of 14 2 of 2
2 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 21 66% 6 of 13 2 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 22 45% 7 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2
3 Ketlen Vieira 18 of 30 60% 4 of 13 9 of 11 5 of 6 13 of 25 5 of 5 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 37 62% 11 of 25 11 of 11 1 of 1 13 of 26 10 of 11 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 37 of 68 54% 5 of 33 16 of 18 16 of 17 36 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 19 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 21 of 29 72% 9 of 16 7 of 8 5 of 5 16 of 22 5 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)

Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira

Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm

Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.

Holly Holm by decision
"holly holm by decision is probably the best bet in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.

"i like holly holm to win i like calling him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000), Holm by decision
"i'm willing to pay if i need to but i'd like to improve it and whereas normally i would just hammer up this holly holm by decision i almost do get that bad impression as you mentioned that home could …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.

over 4.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"home vieta over four and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000)
"i like holly holm to win -240 scares me a little bit off she obviously she's 40 years old um but like i mean she's still in damn good shape for her age the volume is always there obviously she's …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.

"i'm going to go with holly holm i'm going to go decision win"
WIN vs Irene Aldana
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 154 of 301 51% 187 of 342 5 of 14 35% 0 0 5:16
Irene Aldana 0 69 of 185 37% 92 of 210 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 21 of 50 42% 31 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 23 of 47 48% 27 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 32 37% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 37 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:06
Irene Aldana 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Holly Holm 0 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Holly Holm 0 48 of 95 50% 53 of 102 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 154 of 301 51% 81 of 214 56 of 68 17 of 19 140 of 272 1 of 1 13 of 28
Irene Aldana 69 of 185 37% 38 of 128 12 of 30 19 of 27 65 of 181 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 21 of 50 42% 8 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 12 of 31 38% 3 of 14 1 of 4 8 of 13 12 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 23 of 47 48% 10 of 31 8 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 45 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 12 of 32 37% 5 of 21 2 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 12 of 38 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 0 of 0 9 of 24
Irene Aldana 9 of 25 36% 4 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Holly Holm 39 of 58 67% 14 of 28 19 of 24 6 of 6 37 of 56 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 18 of 42 42% 13 of 34 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Holly Holm 48 of 95 50% 37 of 84 11 of 11 0 of 0 47 of 94 1 of 1 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 18 of 55 32% 13 of 40 3 of 12 2 of 3 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.

"give me uh irene aldana to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.

Aldana by decision; mentions Aldana is the underdog at +100; notes hesitancy betting due to possibility of Holm winning a close decision
"i'm going to say irena aldana wins this decision by just slightly having more output than holly holm"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.

"i am going to take hollyoam to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.

Prediction: TKO round 2
"i'm going to go with irene o'donnell here i think she gets it done against holly holm"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 47 of 71 66% 143 of 176 4 of 8 50% 1 0 10:44
Megan Anderson 0 26 of 58 44% 48 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 12 of 17 70% 35 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Megan Anderson 0 15 of 31 48% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 18 of 31 58% 57 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:39
Megan Anderson 0 7 of 19 36% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 17 of 23 73% 51 of 60 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:32
Megan Anderson 0 4 of 8 50% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 47 of 71 66% 27 of 47 12 of 14 8 of 10 19 of 35 8 of 10 20 of 26
Megan Anderson 26 of 58 44% 15 of 42 11 of 16 0 of 0 19 of 48 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 12 of 17 70% 4 of 7 5 of 5 3 of 5 5 of 8 6 of 8 1 of 1
Megan Anderson 15 of 31 48% 9 of 24 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 21 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 18 of 31 58% 15 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 1 10 of 14
Megan Anderson 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 17 of 23 73% 8 of 13 5 of 6 4 of 4 7 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Megan Anderson 4 of 8 50% 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington - Fight History
LOSS vs Julianna Peña
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 1 92 of 317 29% 112 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Raquel Pennington 0 92 of 260 35% 123 of 308 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 24 25% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 6 of 16 37% 18 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
3 Julianna Peña 0 8 of 34 23% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 33 54% 35 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:20
4 Julianna Peña 1 26 of 84 30% 26 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Raquel Pennington 0 16 of 67 23% 18 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
5 Julianna Peña 0 35 of 115 30% 35 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 85 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 92 of 317 29% 57 of 277 29 of 33 6 of 7 88 of 308 4 of 6 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 92 of 260 35% 82 of 248 9 of 11 1 of 1 90 of 256 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 17 of 60 28% 12 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 25 of 59 42% 24 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 6 of 24 25% 2 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julianna Peña 8 of 34 23% 5 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 18 of 33 54% 14 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Julianna Peña 26 of 84 30% 12 of 69 12 of 13 2 of 2 25 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 16 of 67 23% 14 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Julianna Peña 35 of 115 30% 26 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 113 1 of 2 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 27 of 85 31% 24 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 134 of 201 66% 265 of 342 1 of 3 33% 2 2 11:28
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 69 of 88 78% 96 of 118 3 of 9 33% 3 0 8:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 11 of 22 50% 26 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 18 of 22 81% 27 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 33 of 52 63% 47 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:04
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 30 66% 29 of 41 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:46
3 Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 43 62% 52 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:32
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 17 of 20 85% 20 of 23 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:35
4 Raquel Pennington 0 29 of 38 76% 75 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:17
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 8 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:11
5 Raquel Pennington 0 34 of 46 73% 65 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:19
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 12 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 134 of 201 66% 91 of 156 32 of 34 11 of 11 54 of 110 38 of 43 42 of 48
Mayra Bueno Silva 69 of 88 78% 32 of 44 26 of 30 11 of 14 28 of 45 38 of 40 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 11 of 22 50% 7 of 18 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 18 of 22 81% 11 of 13 4 of 5 3 of 4 7 of 11 10 of 10 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 33 of 52 63% 29 of 47 4 of 5 0 of 0 23 of 40 10 of 12 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 30 66% 7 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 5 7 of 16 12 of 13 1 of 1
3 Raquel Pennington 27 of 43 62% 13 of 28 12 of 13 2 of 2 9 of 23 14 of 16 4 of 4
Mayra Bueno Silva 17 of 20 85% 6 of 8 9 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 14 0 of 0
4 Raquel Pennington 29 of 38 76% 22 of 31 7 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 11 5 of 5 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 3 of 3 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Raquel Pennington 34 of 46 73% 20 of 32 5 of 5 9 of 9 8 of 17 7 of 7 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title Fight: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bueno Silva (-170), Pennington (+142)

Round 1
The post-Amanda Nunes era at bantamweight truly begins, as eternal contender Pennington and the red-hot Bueno Silva meet to contest the belt vacated last year by the “Lioness,” who in a nice touch by the UFC is in attendance cageside with her family. Canada’s own Jerin Valel draws the referee assignment for this five-round title fight. Both fighters are in orthodox stance to open the fight. Bueno Silva throws a leg kick that glances, and Pennington rushes forward with a flurry of punches, backing the Brazilian up. Bueno Silva touches Pennington’s lead leg with a solid low kick. They engage again, and Pennington grabs hold of Bueno Silva and shoves her to the fence. Bueno Silva clasps her arms as Pennington throws a few short strikes. Bueno Silva breaks the clinch, and lands another hard calf kick. Pennington grabs a single-leg and tries to take Bueno Silva down, but Bueno Silva defends easily. Pennington goes for another quick single moments later, and they move to the fence. Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back as she drags her to the canvas and quickly locks up a choke. Pennington fights the hands expertly, standing as she does so. Pennington breaks the grip to the point that she feels safe throwing elbow strikes to the thigh of Bueno Silva. Bueno Silva gives up on the choke and briefly loses back control as Pennington scrapes her against the chain-link, but hops back on her back and pulls her to a sitting position against the fence. She throws strikes from seated back control until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva

Round 2
Pennington comes forward with a triple jab, backing Bueno Silva up and dodging the first calf kick that comes her way. Bueno Silva throws another calf kick, backing Pennington to the fence as she does so, then uses underhooks to keep her there. Pennington throws knee up the middle, then another, and switches her hooks to reverse Bueno Silva against the fence. She lets Bueno Silva off the fence and tags her with three punches as she does so. Bueno Silva comes back with a single counter, but it’s a solid one. Bueno Silva clinches and puts Pennington back on the fence. They exchange knee strikes in close quarters. Bueno Silva tags Pennington with a pair of uppercuts to the body, and Pennington comes back across the top with a big punch to the head that rocks her. They get a little space and Pennington hits her with two more good shots to the head. Bueno Silva is hurt and goes staggering back to the fence. Pennington gives chase but ends up clinching, without enough space to follow up with more big shots. They disengage and fight a running battle all the way back across the cage, where Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back once again and tries for the rear-naked choke. Pennington calmly defends, but again she is standing with Bueno Silva in back control. Bueno Silva loses the choke moments before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
Pennington scores first with a long overhand right. Bueno Silva lands two good right low kicks in succession. Pennington clinches and runs Bueno Silva to the fence, where the Brazilian promptly reverses her. Bueno Silva pushes her into the chain-link, looking to move to her back, but Pennington defends well and throws a knee to the body. Pennington takes the outside position. Bueno Silva uses a whizzer kick to toss Pennington to the ground, but Pennington kicks her off and sweeps to stand. Halfway through the round it’s Pennington driving Bueno Silva into the cage. Bueno Silva throws a knee to the body then reverses Pennington into the fence. The two would-be champs spend several long moments exchanging sporadic knees on the inside. Bueno Silva grabs a front headlock and briefly threatens, but Pennington escapes and tosses her to the canvas, ending up on top in half guard with an arm around the neck. Pennington gets up and Bueno Silva stays on the ground, suddenly looking very tired. She seems to want Pennington to go back into her guard, but Pennington is having none of it and Valel waves her up. The round expires a few moments later.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 4
Pennington steps right in a smashes Bueno Silva with a right overhand. She throws another pair of punches as Bueno Silva comes forward, looking for the clinch. Pennington quickly reverses her against the cage, but elects to stay there, throwing short punches—rather than disengage as her corner is loudly imploring her to do. Bueno Silva moves to try and take Pennington’s back against the cage. Pennington defends for a moment, but Bueno Silva persists and gets the position, then slaps on another rear-naked choke. It isn’t completely under the chin, and Pennington is turning red as she fights it off. She shrugs Bueno Silva partway off her back, but Bueno Silva continues to threaten with the choke even from the side. Finally, Pennington spins all the way into Bueno Silva’s guard at the base of the fence. She throws strikes as Bueno Silva throws her legs up for a possible triangle or armbar, but none of them are enough to really threaten, and Pennington keeps pouring on the punches and hammerfists. At the 30-second mark, Pennington postures up and comes down with a big hammerfist that draws a reaction from the Brazilian. The round ends a moment later, and Bueno Silva is slow to get up.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 5
Pennington is first off the blocks with a left and right hook. Bueno Silva swings back, advancing as she does so. Pennington seems motivated to deny her the clinch, especially against the cage, but Bueno Silva manages to get her there anyway. Bueno Silva tries for some kind of body lock, but bails on it and goes for a kneebar on her way down. There’s nothing doing there, and Pennington lands on top, sliding to mount as she locks up an arm-triangle choke. Bueno Silva is surviving just fine, as Pennington is in complete control of the position but apparently can’t get enough torque to finish the choke. Pennington moves out to one side without completely surrendering the mount, and Bueno Silva is slowly turning away from her. A minute and a half to go, and Pennington gives up the choke, settling in Bueno Silva’s half guard. Pennington pours on the punches as Bueno Silva clings to her, eyes closed, just hanging on. Valel looks on and Pennington stands out of guard, throwing kicks to the legs of her supine foe. Pennington dives in with a couple of big, but glancing punches right before the final horn. Barring a historically horrible judging gaffe, “Rocky” should be your new UFC women's bantamweight champion in about two minutes here.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Pennington (49-45 Pennington)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Mayra Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Pennington, citing her experience, pressure, and control style. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's power and submissions but believes Pennington's grit and high-level experience will prevail. He has a quarter unit on Pennington at plus 135 and will monitor for better value. He notes the potential distraction of Pennington's eight-month-old baby.

Quarter unit bet at +135; may add more if value improves
"I'm going to go rockel Pennington she is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Big Brady picks Silva, noting her submission skills are top-notch. He expects the fight to hit the mat at some point, where Silva will have the advantage. He thinks the striking will be close but Silva's forward pressure and durability will be key. He predicts a submission win for Silva.

submission
"give me Silva to win this fight and I guess she's going to become bantamweight champion"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident, citing her submission threat and the fact that Pennington fights in the clinch where Silva caught Holly Holm. However, he worries about Silva's cardio and the lack of her ADHD medication (ritalinic acid) in a five-round fight. He sees Pennington as a live underdog but ultimately goes with Silva.

"I got Mayra Bueno Silva but there's a whole lot of red flags... the pick's going to be Bueno Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Vreeland picks Bueno Silva, analyzing her striking success against Holly Holm. He notes that Silva found the range against Holm and landed impactful strikes. He contrasts Pennington's lack of range kicks and long fighting style, which should allow Silva to close distance. Vreeland also mentions Silva's submission threat if Pennington shoots takedowns. He sees Silva overwhelming Pennington on the feet.

"I'm gonna go marro Buena Silva I think if you watch her fight with Holly Holm she was actually having some success in the Striking in finding the range of Holly Holm who's you know notoriously kind of hard to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Mayra Bueno Silva to become the new bantamweight champion. He highlights her heavy power, devastating leg kicks, and finishing instinct, including the ninja choke. He expects her calf kicks to be effective against Pennington's stationary boxing style, and believes she will land the harder shots throughout the fight, possibly finishing or winning a decision.

"I'm picking maira Shara Bueno Silva to become the new UFC bantamweight champion"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Fox picks Bueno Silva as the better fighter, but acknowledges Pennington's tendency to win. He notes Pennington's year-long layoff as a concern. Fox doesn't provide detailed technical analysis but defers to Silva's overall skill advantage.

"I'm taking Myra buo Silva as well just a better Fighter um it's hard though Pennington somehow she wins gumy she always wins so I can that could very easily happen here again but I think I'm going to take …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host only covers the main event, co-main event (Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez), and other fights, but not Pennington vs Bueno Silva.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

I'm leaning on Bueno Silva to win inside the distance, likely by submission. Pennington could be the busier fighter and win rounds with volume, but Bueno Silva has a finish-heavy style that can break and frustrate Pennington. I think Bueno Silva lands a shot that opens up a clinch and sub opportunity. I'm not taking the moneyline at -155; I prefer the inside distance prop. I'd be very surprised if Pennington finishes Bueno Silva.

inside distance, submission victory
"I'm going to say Bueno Sila inside the distance that will likely end up being a bet too but I think she wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, emphasizing her experience in five-round fights, superior cardio, and wrestling. He notes Bueno Silva's submission threat but believes Pennington can avoid submissions and take over in later rounds. He also jokes about Silva missing her ADHD medication affecting her focus.

"I'm going to enact the CF dot model for this one... it's Pennington for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her higher finishing potential and submission ability. He notes her win over Holly Holm (though overturned) and her competitive fight with Manon Fiorot. He believes she will submit Pennington with a knee bar in round two.

submission via knee bar, round 2
"I'm going with Maya Bueno Silva over Raquel Pennington I think her finishing potential is just way higher than Raquel Pennington"
WIN vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 64 of 152 42% 138 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:45
Ketlen Vieira 0 81 of 159 50% 104 of 184 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 71 32% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ketlen Vieira 0 27 of 58 46% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 51 41% 42 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 61 47% 32 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 30 66% 67 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:04
Ketlen Vieira 0 25 of 40 62% 45 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 64 of 152 42% 41 of 122 5 of 10 18 of 20 56 of 143 8 of 9 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 81 of 159 50% 37 of 111 32 of 35 12 of 13 59 of 134 22 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 71 32% 15 of 58 3 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 27 of 58 46% 14 of 44 9 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 51 41% 10 of 39 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 29 of 61 47% 14 of 43 11 of 14 4 of 4 21 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 20 of 30 66% 16 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5 16 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 25 of 40 62% 9 of 24 12 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 29 11 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raquel Pennington vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)

Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.

"I like Caitlin to win this fight I think minus 117 I actually think that's good money on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Vieira by decision
"I'm gonna stick with with Vera though I don't love it I will not be betting on this fight but I will pick Viera to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.

"I'll lean ever so slightly to Rocky Pennington... but uh no way I'm getting money invested in it early"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Connor expects a split decision either way.
"I'm going to pick her here. ... Vieira is more she's more powerful. She's she's the bigger hitter and at least the little bit of confidence renewed confidence. She showed against home to at least throw off her back foot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.

Bet $100 with Angelo
"I'll pick Rocky in this fight I think she's the better fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.

"the official pick will be Kellen Vieira but it's like you know there's Fighters that you can trust... I couldn't tell you"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Zane expects a close fight and thinks Pennington's technical acumen could earn her a decision.
"I'm going to take Pennington though. ... Pennington is just she is a very solid defensive wrestling grappler even when she gets surprised by somebody's strength or you know gets put in a bad position. She doesn't give a lot …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.

Odds mentioned: Vieira opened at -160, currently -248; Pennington opened at +140, currently +200.
"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
WIN vs Aspen Ladd
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 65 of 160 40% 102 of 199 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 114 of 195 58% 136 of 218 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 60 33% 25 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Raquel Pennington 0 26 of 68 38% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 49 of 82 59% 52 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 32 59% 49 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 25 of 39 64% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 65 of 160 40% 37 of 118 21 of 34 7 of 8 52 of 145 13 of 15 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 114 of 195 58% 57 of 133 47 of 52 10 of 10 89 of 166 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 20 of 60 33% 13 of 48 6 of 11 1 of 1 20 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 40 of 74 54% 24 of 56 12 of 14 4 of 4 36 of 70 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 26 of 68 38% 19 of 53 2 of 10 5 of 5 23 of 63 3 of 5 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 49 of 82 59% 29 of 60 20 of 22 0 of 0 42 of 74 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 19 of 32 59% 5 of 17 13 of 13 1 of 2 9 of 22 10 of 10 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 25 of 39 64% 4 of 17 15 of 16 6 of 6 11 of 22 14 of 17 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Angelo picks Aspen Ladd, citing her toughness and 'dog' mentality. He thinks Pennington's style of cage pressure and control won't work against Ladd's refusal to be bullied. He notes Ladd's power and wrestling, and says this is a no-bet situation.

No bet situation.
"i think i like aspen ladd here i think i like aspen ladd honestly the dog in her not accepting the bully the positions from raquel pennington i think aspen lad gets this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington to win by decision. He notes Pennington has solid takedown defense and should keep the fight on the feet, where she can outstrike Ladd. Ladd looked terrible in her last fight against Norma Dumont, landing only 3 strikes in the first round. Brady thinks Ladd's path to victory is takedowns, but Pennington is strong and physical enough to stuff them.

"give me rocky pennington to win and give me her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Cody also leans Ladd, but emphasizes the weight cut risk. He notes Pennington's recent wins are over low-level opponents and that she has been taken down by her last three foes. Cody thinks Ladd's top game will be decisive if she makes weight. He plans to watch weigh-ins before betting, and is interested in the under if Ladd looks drained.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"the value side would be aspen lad for me but more interested in uh watching the weigh-ins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Levi sees Raquel Pennington as the more well-rounded fighter with takedowns and a grinding style. He worries about Aspen Ladd's top pressure and ground-and-pound, but thinks Pennington's takedown defense and experience against top competition (including Amanda Nunes) will allow her to mix strikes and takedowns. He expects a decision win for Pennington, though he is not rushing to bet at -190.

"the more well-rounded fighter here no questions asked is rocky pennington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

I think we'll see a better version of Aspen Ladd than last time. She should be able to push Pennington against the cage, drag her to the floor, and have success with ground and pound. Pennington struggles when fights hit the mat. Ladd will grind out a decision victory.

"I think we're going to see a better version of Aspen Ladd than we did last time... I think we see Ladd grind her out and eventually get a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Paul leans towards Ladd as an underdog but conditions it on her making weight. He notes Pennington's takedown defense is weak and that Ladd has ferocious ground and pound. Paul thinks if Ladd gets top position, she'll smash Pennington. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds if Ladd looks bad at weigh-ins. He calls Ladd his first underdog pick of the card.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"this is gonna be my first underdog pick of the card aspen lad yeah she's my baby"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington, criticizing Aspen Ladd's lack of grit and poor performance in her last fight. He expects Pennington to push the pace and win a 30-27 decision, noting that Ladd has changed her style since being KO'd and no longer leads the dance.

"i am going to be going with raquel pennington here getting the job done over aspen lad"
WIN vs Macy Chiasson
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:07 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 45 of 79 56% 61 of 95 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:09
Macy Chiasson 0 26 of 86 30% 64 of 126 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 24 of 38 63% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Macy Chiasson 0 15 of 48 31% 48 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:38
Macy Chiasson 0 11 of 38 28% 16 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 45 of 79 56% 22 of 48 20 of 28 3 of 3 38 of 71 7 of 8 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 26 of 86 30% 16 of 65 9 of 18 1 of 3 22 of 79 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 24 of 38 63% 10 of 21 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 15 of 48 31% 11 of 39 4 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 9 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 11 of 38 28% 5 of 26 5 of 9 1 of 3 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.

"i think raquel is able to crowd pressure and work her way to a pretty boring win but this is not a cakewalk"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.

decision
"I'm going to say macy chazon comes out here uses her height her reach her size and wins a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.

"I think this is a dog selection here I think I think macy chase on is live in the spot and she could get the job done so I'll uh I'll take missy jason"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.

Pennington by split decision; fight goes to decision
"I do lean Pennington but I mean if someone wants to take a shot on Chiasson and hope for that split decision I can't sit here talk you off of it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.

"i think she's a little even more nastier than raquel at this point in her career i think she's hungry i think she knows she's close to getting those big big fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.

Pennington by decision (+115)
"I'm liking uh penguin by decision at plus 115. i do think she'll grand alchemists on over over 15 minutes here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.

"I'm with you as well I think like five and a half inch reach rocky isn't exactly too big for 135 pounds let alone 145 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.

"i'm going to go over raquel pennington here over mesa chasson"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 50 of 98 51% 85 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:34
Pannie Kianzad 0 48 of 79 60% 98 of 144 1 of 3 33% 0 0 6:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:24
Pannie Kianzad 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 10 of 17 58% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Pannie Kianzad 0 12 of 18 66% 34 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 28 of 62 45% 43 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Pannie Kianzad 0 28 of 49 57% 39 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 50 of 98 51% 26 of 68 20 of 25 4 of 5 13 of 50 37 of 48 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 48 of 79 60% 26 of 56 17 of 18 5 of 5 23 of 49 23 of 28 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 12 of 19 63% 3 of 7 8 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 3 12 of 16 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 10 of 17 58% 7 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 6 of 7 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 12 of 18 66% 7 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 11 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Raquel Pennington 28 of 62 45% 16 of 47 9 of 11 3 of 4 9 of 37 19 of 25 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 28 of 49 57% 16 of 36 8 of 9 4 of 4 15 of 33 13 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington because she will march forward, hold Pannie against the cage, and neutralize her boxing. He notes that Pennington's losses are to current/former champions and that she is a boring but effective grappler. He likes the -132 odds and thinks they will move. He is confident Pennington stifles Pannie's combinations.

Less on Pannie Kianzad's strike line (115.5)
"raquel pennington is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her superior level of competition and ability to grind against the cage. He notes Kianzad was outstruck by Alexis Davis and has shown vulnerability to wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Pennington, though he wishes the price were better and likely won't bet it.

"i'm going to take pennington to win um don't love the price to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Cody picks Kianzad as a slight underdog, citing her better striking and improved takedown defense. He notes that Pennington is a grinder but has looked mentally off in recent fights. Cody believes Kianzad can keep the fight at range and outwork Pennington.

"i would classify this one as a dog or pass situation and again you do have chianzan as that plus 110 underdogs so gonna go ahead"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi leans with Raquel Pennington. He calls Kianzad an overachiever and thinks Pennington's record is misleading because she has fought the best. He sees similar boxing-centric styles but gives the edge to Pennington, expecting a close decision. He notes he usually likes to dog close decisions but here he leans with Pennington.

"i'm gonna go with rocky pennington here maybe a close decision and oftentimes on close decisions i like to dog but on this one i'm leaning with rocky pennington to to win the decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Preet picks Pennington because she is good at everything and has better cardio and forward pressure. He thinks Kianzad is a better technical striker but Pennington will nullify her with clinch work and takedowns. He expects a decision and likes the fight goes to decision at +125.

Fight goes to decision +125
"I like Pennington in this fight I'm kind of you know I'm kind of surprised how much I like her here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Paul agrees with taking Kianzad at plus money, noting that Pennington's style could lead to a close decision. He thinks Kianzad's volume and range striking give her an edge, but acknowledges the smaller cage may favor Pennington's grinding.

"if it's gonna be that close you take the plus money i guess in those spots so i'll i'll follow you along on that one panty cans at plus 110"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington, praising Kianzad's fundamentals, dirty boxing, and recent form. He questions Pennington's motivation and activity, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision for Kianzad.

"i'm going to go with pani kian's ad here"
WIN vs Marion Reneau
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 107 of 154 69% 118 of 165 1 of 2 50% 0 1 5:29
Marion Reneau 0 46 of 117 39% 81 of 154 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 36 63% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Marion Reneau 0 17 of 52 32% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
2 Raquel Pennington 0 37 of 50 74% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:15
Marion Reneau 0 13 of 29 44% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
3 Raquel Pennington 0 47 of 68 69% 52 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:50
Marion Reneau 0 16 of 36 44% 22 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 107 of 154 69% 54 of 97 46 of 50 7 of 7 51 of 93 52 of 56 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 46 of 117 39% 20 of 85 20 of 25 6 of 7 22 of 84 24 of 33 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 36 63% 9 of 22 12 of 12 2 of 2 11 of 23 12 of 13 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 17 of 52 32% 8 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 37 10 of 15 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 37 of 50 74% 15 of 27 20 of 21 2 of 2 14 of 24 19 of 21 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 13 of 29 44% 5 of 21 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 15 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 47 of 68 69% 30 of 48 14 of 17 3 of 3 26 of 46 21 of 22 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 16 of 36 44% 7 of 25 8 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington by decision, believing she is the better striker and that the fight will stay on the feet. He notes Pennington's superior competition and Reneau's age (42). He thinks Reneau's only path to victory is a submission, which he doesn't see happening. He is pretty confident and thinks the line could be wider.

odds: Pennington minus 150, Reneau plus 125; pick by decision
"I like Pennington here I like her to win I think she's more you know the better fighter on the feet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marion Reneau

Daniel Levi picks Marion Reneau as an underdog, arguing that the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He notes that Raquel Pennington is average and doesn't land many takedowns, while Reneau has decent hands and can win a close decision. Levi believes Reneau has a chance to win a split decision, especially on her 43rd birthday.

"I'm actually going to go on the opposite end and take a Marion Reneau to get it done on her 43rd birthday."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Pennington is boring but has experience against better opponents. Reneau is 42 years old and coming off a loss to Jessica Eye, which indicates she is past her prime. Pennington will get the job done, though it may be a dull fight.

"Raquel Pennington is gonna beat Marion Reneau Marion Reneau is 42 years of age she's at losses she lost a Jessica aya which now tells me that she is absolute [ __ ] dog shits"
LOSS vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"