Career Averages - Volkan Oezdemir
Career Averages - Johnny Walker
Volkan Oezdemir
Johnny Walker
Volkan Oezdemir - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 35 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 35 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oezdemir (-240); Menifield (+190)
Round 1
With dueling finish rates right at or around 75%, a pair of fist-first light heavyweights meet for the first time despite a litany of experience in the Octagon thus far. “No Time” Oezdemir (20-8, 8-7 UFC) knows there is no time for a loss, as that would drop his promotional record to .500. Menifield (17-5-1, 10-5-1 UFC) is a long way away from that line, and he has put a pair of knockout losses last year in the rear-view mirror with two victories thus far in 2025. Someone’s fortunes will drop at the end of what should be a concussive matchup, one that kicks off in front of referee Marc Goddard with a sporting touch of gloves.
Oezdemir wades towards Menifield, but he ends up getting smacked with a surprise left hook on the entry. Oezdemir backs off to find another way in, and he jabs to set up twos and a body kick. Menifield bounces off the fence to shake it off, and he avoids a swatting right hand while strafing to the side. Oezdemir stays after him with punches that bounce off the guard, and he squares up to drill Menifield in the chest with a knee. Menifield fires back with an overhand right that is out of range, and another vicious knee from “No Time” crashes into Menifield’s chin. The Swiss fighter stands Menifield up with a barrage of fiery fists, knocking Menifield’s head around and putting him in jeopardy. Menifield sways and moves, but Oezdemir’s boxing is relentless and destructive.
Oezdemir stuns Menifield with a left hand and finishes the job with a bevy of brutal blows. Like a puppet that’s had its strings cut, Menifield slumps to his side and is kept upright only because of the fence next to him.
The lights are on, but no one’s home. Goddard recognizes that Menifield is dreaming of his ancestors and halts the fight, and he immediately tends to the wrecked Texan. The “boop” is back.
The Official Result
Volkan Oezdemir def. Alonzo Menifield R1 1:27 via KO (Knee and Punches)
Angelo leans Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, despite rooting for Menifield. He notes Oezdemir's leg kicks were effective against Carlos Ulberg and could neutralize Menifield's power. Both are similar aging vets with above-average striking and below-average wrestling, but Oezdemir is cleaner and has better cardio. Angelo calls the odds an atrocity and suggests value on Menifield.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by decision, noting his higher level of competition and defensive responsibility. He expects the fight to go the distance and favors Oezdemir's output and experience over Menifield.
Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir confidently, despite feeling it might be a trap. He notes that Menifield has only beaten green or inexperienced fighters and has poor takedown defense. Volkan has fought higher-level competition and has power. Cody believes Volkan's experience and power will be too much for Menifield, who tends to freeze against power punchers.
Connor picks Oezdemir, noting that Menifield lacks the tools to exploit Oezdemir's weaknesses. He explains that Oezdemir struggles against a good jab or aggressive ground game, but Menifield relies on power and size, which Oezdemir can handle. Connor cites Oezdemir's wins over similar fighters like Johnny Walker and Paul Craig.
Lucrative James picks Volkan Oezdemir but with low confidence, calling it a close fight. He notes Volkan's technical striking and leg kicks, but acknowledges Menifield's athleticism and power. He thinks Volkan will win a decision by doing slightly more on the feet, but admits he may bet on Menifield as an underdog. He also mentions the over/under prop.
Oezdemir has power and can exploit Menifield's durability issues. Menifield is a live underdog with power of his own. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet than the moneyline, as both have knockout potential.
Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing with Cody. He notes that all metrics point to Volkan, and Menifield's wins are against lower-level opponents. Paul mentions that Menifield has been knocked out quickly by power punchers, and Volkan has the power to do the same.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, citing Oezdemir's experience and takedown defense. He notes Menifield's poor decision-making and believes Oezdemir will out-strike him. He predicts a second-round TKO win for Oezdemir.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oezdemir. He notes that Menifield's best chance is if Oezdemir has a bad night, but Oezdemir's pressure and aggression should overwhelm Menifield. Zane highlights Oezdemir's experience against higher-level competition and Menifield's tendency to lose to fighters who don't respect his power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 96 of 183 | 52% | 96 of 183 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 98 of 204 | 48% | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 45 of 84 | 53% | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 96 of 183 | 52% | 51 of 131 | 17 of 24 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 182 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 98 of 204 | 48% | 81 of 182 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 51 | 56% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 24 of 60 | 40% | 18 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 28 of 59 | 47% | 11 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 13 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 29 of 60 | 48% | 23 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 39 of 73 | 53% | 28 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 45 of 84 | 53% | 40 of 78 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo initially was very confident in Ulberg but became more hesitant after reviewing Oezdemir's resume and chin. He still picks Ulberg as the much better striker but acknowledges Oezdemir's takedown threat and experience. He notes Oezdemir hasn't been knocked out since 2020.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the better striker with more volume and power, and Oezdemir is unlikely to wrestle. Brady notes Oezdemir has looked like he's losing a step, citing the Paul Craig fight where he seemed slow. He expects Ulberg to outwork Oezdemir over 15 minutes in a competitive but clear decision.
Cody picks Ulberg, citing his speed, power, and improved cardio and grappling. He notes that Oezdemir is a first-round knockout threat but fades in later rounds and has been taken down. Ulberg's diverse skill set and ability to mix takedowns give him multiple paths to victory. He expects Ulberg to win by decision or late knockout.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but notes that Oezdemir could win if he pressures and lands big combinations. He compares Ulberg to Charbel Magomedov, saying he is fast but vulnerable when pressured. Connor expects a sticky split decision where Ulberg jabs from range and Oezdemir has moments of success, but Ulberg's speed and reach should edge it.
Daniel Vreeland is confident Carlos Ulberg will win, citing his superior athleticism, speed, and slick striking. He praises Ulberg's left hook and step-back counter. He views Volkan Oezdemir as a solid but limited gatekeeper who is too meat-and-potatoes for the new breed. Vreeland predicts a left hook knockout by Ulberg.
James does not give a clear pick for this fight, citing inside information from Ulberg's camp that he keeps private. He notes the odds seem based on recency bias and that Ulberg is stepping up in competition. He suggests the line may be off but does not reveal his lean.
Paul agrees, highlighting Ulberg's speed and technical striking advantage. He thinks Oezdemir will struggle to land his power shots and may force a dogfight, but Ulberg's improved cardio and fight IQ will carry him. He notes that Ulberg's grappling is a question mark, but Oezdemir doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir, despite acknowledging Oezdemir's potential to fraud-check prospects. He notes Oezdemir's hype was built on not getting hit, but since then only has a KO over Johnny Walker and couldn't finish Paul Craig. He believes Ulberg is more talented, trains at a good gym (City Kickboxing), and is now or never at 34. He predicts a competitive decision win for Ulberg.
Zane picks Ulberg, arguing that his jab and range control will frustrate Oezdemir, who struggles against kickboxers that sit on a jab. He notes that Oezdemir's poor defensive striking and fragile confidence will be exposed if Ulberg can stick him from distance. Zane compares it to the Rakic fight, expecting a split decision where Ulberg's jab wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.
Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.
Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.
JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.
Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.
Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.
Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.
Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.
Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.
I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.
Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 108 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 57 of 121 | 47% | 171 of 251 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 46 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 31 of 64 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 54 of 78 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 86 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 42 of 81 | 51% | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 34 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 57 of 121 | 47% | 42 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 58 | 44% | 17 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 20 of 36 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.
Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.
Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 33 of 126 | 26% | 41 of 136 | 0 of 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 72 of 129 | 55% | 108 of 170 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 47 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 12 of 62 | 19% | 13 of 63 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 33 of 126 | 26% | 18 of 102 | 10 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 120 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| Paul Craig | 72 of 129 | 55% | 45 of 101 | 10 of 11 | 17 of 17 | 50 of 97 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 6 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 16 of 53 | 30% | 10 of 44 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 27 of 48 | 56% | 21 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 12 of 62 | 19% | 5 of 50 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
| Paul Craig | 29 of 52 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 |
Angelo picks Volkan Oezdemir, noting his 80% takedown defense and that he has no desire to grapple, unlike Paul Craig's previous opponents. He says Craig's only path is a submission, but Oezdemir will defend takedowns and outstrike him. He also suggests a prop bet on Paul Craig to win inside the distance with 'decision no action' as a safety net.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a 'horrible matchup' for Paul Craig, as Oezdemir has elite takedown defense and no reason to grapple. Oezdemir has a massive striking advantage and power. Craig's path to victory is a Hail Mary submission, but Oezdemir should knock him out early.
Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing that minus 150 is an excellent price. He notes Craig's wins come from opponents making mistakes and that Oezdemir has power and good takedown defense. Cody thinks Craig will shoot early, get stuffed, and then get knocked out. He also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes because Craig either gets finished quickly or submits quickly.
Daniel Levi hesitantly picks Paul Craig, acknowledging that Oezdemir will likely dominate until he gets caught in a submission. He notes that Craig has a knack for pulling off triangle chokes, and his opponents often get carried away and fall into his guard. Levi points out that Oezdemir has looked lost in his last two fights and may not be fully invested. He admits it's a risky pick but believes Craig can find an opportunistic submission again.
Oezdemir has 80% takedown defense and Craig's takedown game is not solid. Oezdemir will keep it standing and find the knockout. Craig's Cinderella run ends here. Oezdemir finishes him in round one or two.
Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir at -150, calling it a good value play. He believes Oezdemir can keep the fight standing and destroy Craig on the feet. Paul notes Craig's wrestling is not special and Oezdemir has good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's magic run will end eventually. Paul also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Paul Craig, despite acknowledging he often picks against Craig and loses. He believes Craig's offensive grappling has improved significantly, as shown in his second fight with Shogun. Craig is training with Tom Aspinall and will mix in takedowns. Oezdemir has power but Craig can pull guard and has submission threats. The Guru expects Craig to get a takedown and dominate on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 66 of 108 | 61% | 76 of 118 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 48 of 102 | 47% | 56 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 66 of 108 | 61% | 43 of 82 | 20 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 59 of 100 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 48 of 102 | 47% | 23 of 67 | 3 of 12 | 22 of 23 | 41 of 92 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 27 of 41 | 65% | 18 of 32 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 19 of 34 | 55% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 26 of 41 | 63% | 17 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 32 | 40% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win a close decision. He notes Ankalaev is a good striker with a well-rounded game, but this is a step up in competition. Oezdemir is more hittable and has been finished before. He thinks Ankalaev will slightly edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns. He hates the price tag but believes Ankalaev gets it done.
Cody is fully sold on Ankalaev, calling him a well-rounded package with wrestling, pressure, cardio, and submission game. He thinks Ankalaev could be the best LHW after Jones. He notes Oezdemir has decent takedown defense (80%) but has been inactive (only 2 fights in 2 years) and coming off a knee injury. He expects Ankalaev to pressure, tire Oezdemir, and get takedowns in later rounds.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting his improvement and discipline. He believes Oezdemir hasn't improved and is too basic, relying on hooks and overhands. Daniel thinks Ankalaev will pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. He acknowledges Oezdemir's toughness but sees Ankalaev as the more complete fighter with more ways to win.
Ankalaev is patient and disciplined, with excellent striking defense and takedowns. Oezdemir's volume could be a factor, but Ankalaev can win wherever the fight goes. He likely controls the fight and wins a decision, possibly with a submission if he grapples.
Paul agrees strongly, saying Ankalaev has all the skills and on any given night could become champion. He thinks Ankalaev can beat Jan on his best night. He is not jumping off the Ankalaev train.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Volkan Oezdemir. He thinks Ankalaev is more technical on the feet and has great grappling to fall back on. He notes Oezdemir's recent KO loss to Prochazka and long layoff may affect his confidence and aggression. He expects Oezdemir to be hesitant, giving Ankalaev space to work. He predicts a close 29-28 decision for Ankalaev, possibly with Oezdemir winning the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 41 of 92 | 44% | 44 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 39 of 83 | 46% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 41 of 92 | 44% | 30 of 76 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 41 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 33 of 73 | 45% | 29 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 39 of 83 | 46% | 28 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 39 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 60 | 43% | 23 of 55 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by first-round knockout, citing his veteran experience and higher level of competition. He thinks Procházka is talented but this step up is too much, and Oezdemir can use takedowns or striking to finish him.
Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, citing his experience against top competition (Reyes, Smith) and power. He criticizes Prochazka's competition level (washed-up veterans) and notes Prochazka puts weight on his front leg, leaving him open to calf kicks. Levi believes Oezdemir will clip Prochazka and get a KO, as Prochazka is not ready for this level yet.
Procházka is a big light heavyweight with heavy hands and a path to victory via wrestling if needed. Oezdemir relies on leg kicks, but Procházka can counter them. Expects Procházka to put Oezdemir on his back and finish him, likely by first-round KO. The line at +140 is appealing, but staying away from UFC debutants.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Johnny Walker - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 34 of 73 | 46% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 17 | 17 of 21 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 42 of 80 | 52% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 11 | 29 of 38 | 41 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 17 of 28 | 60% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 13 of 28 | 46% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 15 of 35 | 42% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 12 of 15 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 12 of 24 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.
Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.
Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.
Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.
Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.
Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.
The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.
James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.
This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.
Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.
Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 1 | 50 of 67 | 74% | 51 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 1 | 41 of 45 | 91% | 41 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 50 of 67 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 5 | 13 of 13 | 15 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 33 of 37 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 20 of 47 | 42% | 8 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 9 of 22 | 40% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 12 of 30 | 40% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 41 of 45 | 91% | 33 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 37 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 8 of 17 | 47% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The moment of truth has arrived, as Zhang stakes his 12-fight win streak—the last four in the Octagon—against Walker in an attempt to take a huge step towards becoming China’s second UFC champion. Walker, for his part, seeks to prove he has made strides in fight IQ and defense to go with his outlandish physical gifts and offensive arsenal. In an eminently sensible move, Marc Goddard, the largest referee available, has pulled main event duty. Zhang reaches out for a glove touch. Walker trots across the cage, ducks under his foe’s outstretched hand and shoots for a takedown. It isn’t terribly sporting, but more importantly it backfires, as he ends up with Zhang on top of him in his guard. Zhang tries to capitalize with some elbow strikes, but Walker manages to survive the miscue with little damage. Zhang lets him return to his feet and hurts him with a right hand. Zhang gives chase as Walker stumbles to the fence, and is forced to back off as Walker whiffs with a huge haymaker. Walker comes up short with a flying knee. Zhang clinches and drives Walker to the fence. Two minutes to go and they finally separate. Zhang is still in pursuit, but ends up chasing the Brazilian around the cage rather than cutting angles. Walker shoots a long double-leg and Zhang snuffs it out easily. Zhang rocks Walker with a big elbow inside. Walker backs off and returns to sliding around the perimeter, Zhang in tow. Zhang slaps a high kick off the side of Walker’s head at the clapper.
10-9 Zhang.
Round 2
Zhang is the aggressor to open Round 2, but Walker continues to move laterally, refusing to be trapped against the fence. The pace has slowed a bit, a minute into the round, but Zhang steps forward and lands two straight right hands that make the big man stumble. Walker creeps forward and meets Zhang in the center of the cage.
Walker lands a hard leg kick, then another. Zhang is in trouble, having taken some kind of serious damage from the kicks. Walker connects with another low kick, but Zhang is already on his way down. Walker pounces on his stricken foe, delivering some huge punches and elbows, and the suspense is suddenly over whether he will manage to get himself disqualified, as the blows rain all over Zhang’s head, while he grounds and ungrounds himself.
Enough legal blows get through—and no blatantly illegal ones—that the outcome becomes obvious to all, and Goddard moves in to halt the beating. A wild end to a wild fight.
The Official Result
Johnny Walker def. Mingyang Zhang R2 2:37 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Angelo is very confident in Zhang Mingyang, calling him a dangerous finisher on feet and ground. He criticizes Johnny Walker for losing his craziness after training at SBG Ireland and becoming chinny. He thinks this is a showcase for the hometown guy and that Walker will get knocked out. He says Mingyang should be a much heavier favorite.
Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round knockout, stating that Johnny Walker has a glass chin and has been knocked out six times. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Walker is unlikely to wrestle given his history. He believes the fight will be a striking match and that Zhang will knock Walker out early. He does not like the -310 line or the props.
Connor believes Johnny Walker is a broken fighter after training at SBG Ireland, where he lost his aggressive brawling style and now moves around aimlessly without a clear game plan. He notes that Walker's last three fights show him getting annihilated, and that Zhang Mingyang, while unproven, is a big, fast, aggressive brawler who will likely just throw punches until Walker gets knocked out. Connor thinks this fight will be less competitive than Walker's loss to Anthony Smith.
The host notes that all 19 of Mingyang's victories have come in the first round and expects him to continue that trend against Johnny Walker, who has comically horrible durability at this stage. He thinks Mingyang will take the pace immediately, dictate range, and land big shots to get Walker out in the first round by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round KO. He expresses no trust in Johnny Walker's chin, noting that Walker gets knocked out repeatedly. He highlights that all of Zhang's wins are first-round KOs and that he found the punch on Brenson Ribeiro, who is tall and rangy. He believes Zhang is a master at finding those shots and that Walker is chinny enough to get put down. He acknowledges that Walker might try to grapple, but expects the fight to be decided in the pocket.
Zane agrees with Connor that Johnny Walker is broken, citing his lack of direction and inability to execute a neutralizing game plan. He points out that Walker's footwork is poor and he can't hold opponents off with range tools, making him an easy target for Zhang's aggression. Zane expects Zhang to win by knockout, as Walker's fight response has turned into a flight response.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.
Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.
Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.
JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.
Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 22 of 25 | 88% | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 39 of 58 | 67% | 8 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 29 | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 24 of 71 | 33% | 2 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 31 | 24 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 33 | 51% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 17 | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 15 of 50 | 30% | 2 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 19 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 22 of 25 | 88% | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 0 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.
Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.
Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.
Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.
James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.
Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.
Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.
Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.
Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 38 of 92 | 41% | 41 of 95 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 92 of 192 | 47% | 99 of 204 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 40 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 38 of 92 | 41% | 19 of 64 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 38 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 92 of 192 | 47% | 32 of 117 | 9 of 19 | 51 of 56 | 81 of 178 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 10 of 22 | 45% | 8 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 28 of 58 | 48% | 16 of 40 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 18 of 34 | 52% | 8 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 31 of 59 | 52% | 7 of 32 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 20 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Johnny Walker | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 21 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 33 of 75 | 44% | 9 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 22 of 25 | 31 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, speed, power, and unorthodox striking. He thinks Walker is the more dangerous fighter and notes Anthony Smith may be focused on his post-fight career. He mentions Walker has only shot two takedowns in the UFC but got both, and could use that to surprise Smith. He expects the fight to go to the second round and likes the over 1.5 rounds if available.
Big Brady sees this as a true pick'em fight, calling both fighters untrustworthy. He expects a striking fight, as Walker's takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. Brady gives Walker the power advantage and believes he can land a big knockout shot, but worries about Walker's chin. He picks Walker to knock out Smith in the first round, but calls it his least confident pick on the card.
Cody picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant due to Smith's age and 50+ pro fights. He notes Smith's superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and his ability to survive early storms and finish late. However, he worries about Smith's leg injury and layoff, and acknowledges Walker's explosiveness and power. He sees Smith's jab and ring IQ as key advantages.
Connor picks Anthony Smith despite reservations, mainly because he dislikes Johnny Walker's move to SBG Ireland and feels it's a bad idea. He acknowledges Smith's vulnerability to larger fighters but thinks Smith's technical consistency and ability to take advantage of Walker's self-destructive tendencies could win. He notes the line is dead even and admits he might be wrong.
Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker despite concerns about Walker's chin and durability. He believes Walker will be winning the fight until he either gets his arm raised or gets caught, as Smith's style relies on comebacks and opportunistic finishes. Levi notes that Smith is a veteran with many finishes but does not see Smith dominating the fight; instead, he expects Walker to be ahead on the scorecards or land a knockout. He acknowledges the risk due to Walker's history of being knocked out and his tall man defense, but ultimately favors Walker's athleticism and recent focus.
Smith is back at Factory X with Mark Montoya, motivated after a loss. His durability allows him to roll with Walker's shots, and he can pressure, land combinations, and counter Walker's wild striking. Smith can open up a finish via knockout or submission. Walker's durability issues and tentative moments may be exploited. Smith's experience and re-alignment with his camp are key.
Paul slightly favors Anthony Smith, calling it a fair pick'em. He notes both fighters can crack and Walker is more likely to finish early, but if Smith can secure takedowns and hang around, he can capitalize. He acknowledges the volatility and question marks on both sides, but edges toward Smith due to his well-rounded game.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker, citing his athleticism and reach advantage. He notes that Anthony Smith has looked hesitant and stiff on the feet recently, and his body appears less toned, suggesting decline. He believes Walker's momentum and finishing potential will be too much for Smith, predicting a TKO in the first round.
Zane leans Johnny Walker based on a 'vibe pick,' feeling that Anthony Smith will be uncomfortable fighting someone as huge as Walker. He notes that Smith tends to gas and fold when things go wrong, and Walker's size and reach (6 inches longer) could bully Smith. He acknowledges Smith's technical striking but thinks Walker's athleticism and size will cause Smith to freak out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Johnny Walker to knock out Paul Craig in the first round. He notes Walker is much bigger, more explosive, and has huge power on the feet. Craig's striking is not good and he will likely pull guard, but Walker should disengage and keep it standing. If Walker goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but Walker can also finish with ground and pound. He trusts Walker to get the knockout but warns of sweating if it hits the mat.
Cody picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ under John Kavanagh. He says Walker can dictate range, use footwork, and potshot Paul Craig. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous BJJ but thinks Walker will keep the fight standing and avoid the ground. He mentions Walker's power and ability to knock out Craig. He also notes Craig's poor striking and takedown defense.
Connor picks Paul Craig, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Walker's new passive style is worse than his old reckless one, and that Craig will pressure and likely land clean shots. Connor also mentions that Walker has never been submitted but that Craig is a submission specialist who could catch him.
Paul picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ. He says Walker can keep the fight standing and avoid Craig's BJJ. He mentions Craig's poor striking and takedown defense, and says Walker has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges Craig's submission wins over top guys but thinks Walker will fight smart and avoid the ground.
The Guru is confident Walker will KO Craig. He highlights Walker's underrated grappling, noting he reversed Krylov and has improved rapidly. Craig has no striking threat, so Walker will be confident on the feet. The Guru predicts Walker will rock Craig, force a bad takedown, and finish with ground and pound, similar to the Ryan Spann fight.
Zane picks Paul Craig, citing that Craig has a reliable bag of tricks and will be aggressive, while Johnny Walker has regressed under SPG coaching, becoming passive and lacking a functional style. Zane notes that grappling is light heavyweight secret sauce, and Craig is a submission artist who can exploit Walker's poor grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 2:10 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 17 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 2:10 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 17 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s time for the main card, with the only fight that did not change one day ago. It opens with a light heavyweight battle between finishers, and a ranked spot is on the line for the victor. The high-flying Walker (18-7, 4-4 UFC) will try to right the ship and get things going again, while powerful Moldovan Cutelaba (16-7-1, 1 NC; 5-6-1 UFC) wants to keep things afloat with a .500 record in the company. Stoppage rates of 94% for Walker and 87% for Cutelaba likely mean that referee Mike Beltran will be busy in this matchup, and the two intense 205ers do still touch gloves. Walker pokes out a few jabs with his range advantage, and Cutelaba fires off a head kick at him. Walker looks shocked, and he responds with a high kick of his own. “The Hulk” catches it and smashes him down to the ground with a slam. Cutelaba pounds on his opponent from the guard, and Walker scoots his way to the fence and grabs it to try to improve position. Beltran will not let him get away with it, and he shouts at the Brazilian to knock it off. Even in a close guard, Cutelaba uses his forearm and elbow to grind on Walker and score a few shots. Walker grabs the cage again, and he lets it go when Cutelaba belts him on the chin. Walker frames off with his feet, and he pulls on the wire once more to earn another severe warning. Exploding out of the bad position, Walker flips over, and he falls into an armbar setup. Cutelaba immediately moves to his knees, and he stands up even while Walker hangs onto him from behind. Cutelaba stomps the feet of his opponent, and Walker lifts him and drops him down hard. As soon as they land, the Brazilian sets up a rear-naked choke, but it is not under the chin. Cutelaba does not go away from a neck crank, and he grits it out and fights the grip. The Brazilian switches the hands and goes for a rear-naked choke on the other side, and Cutelaba fights tooth-and-nail to preserve his neck. Walker keeps hooks in instead of utilizing a body triangle, and he stretches Cutelaba out and wraps up a rear-naked choke. Cutelaba turns to his side and holds his chin down, but the forearm of Walker sneaks beneath it and squeezes tightly. Cutelaba’s face turns a dark shade of pink and he begins to gurgle from the vice-like grip, and there is no way out. Before he passes out from the submission, Cutelaba taps out, and Walker lets go and moves to an open area of the cage to start doing the worm. Walker breakdances a little more, but does not get reckless and injure himself like in the past. This is an important one for Walker, who records his first finish in nearly two years while landing his first sub since 2017.
The Official Result
Johnny Walker def. Ion Cutelaba R1 4:37 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Ion Cuțelaba, noting that Johnny Walker has been ruined by SBG Ireland and is no longer the creative fighter he once was. He thinks Walker will be low volume and hesitant, allowing Cuțelaba to get takedowns. He mentions Cuțelaba took Ryan Spann down three times, and Spann took Walker down, so Cuțelaba should dominate with wrestling.
Big Brady picks Johnny Walker as a dog, calling the line nonsensical. He argues Walker's losses came against elite fighters like Jamal Hill and Thiago Santos, while Cuțelaba has poor control despite good wrestling. He notes Walker's size and strength make him hard to take down and hold down, and predicts Walker wins by first-round knockout, though he admits both are chinny and someone is getting knocked out.
Cody picks Johnny Walker as a dog, despite not trusting him. He notes that Cuțelaba overexerts and gasses, and that Walker has a reach advantage and can dictate range. He is concerned about Walker's style under John Kavanagh but thinks the point-fighting approach could work. He says he will not bet Walker but picks him for the show.
Daniel Levi leans Ion Cutelaba but with very low confidence. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation, noting both fighters are unreliable glass cannons. He points to Cutelaba's wrestling advantage and power, but questions whether Cutelaba will use wrestling or brawl. He also mentions Walker's confidence issues after knockout losses and his own chin problems. Levi says he can't trust either guy and won't bet the -200 on Cutelaba.
Jacob calls it a coin toss but leans toward Cuțelaba because the path to victory is clear via wrestling. He notes both fighters have no chins and do stupid things, making it unpredictable. He placed a bet on under 1.5 rounds at plus money for premium members, as he expects a finish.
The host picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by knockout but is not confident at -200. He notes Cuțelaba's power and durability advantage, but thinks Walker's size could make it difficult for Cuțelaba to hold him down. He sees Walker as a live dog and won't bet the moneyline.
Paul also picks Johnny Walker, but is very hesitant. He notes that Cuțelaba has cardio issues and is undersized, and that Walker has the reach and flashy techniques to pick him apart. However, he acknowledges that Cuțelaba could land a big shot and knock Walker out. He says he is 'super scared' of this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round TKO. He describes Walker coming out with a flying attack, Cuțelaba moving away and wagging his finger. Cuțelaba chews at the inside leg, shoots a takedown, but Walker explodes up. Against the cage, Cuțelaba lands punches on Walker, who takes them but is known to be vulnerable. They separate, Cuțelaba fakes a takedown, throws an overhand, rocks Walker, and finishes with ground and pound.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.
Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.
Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.
JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.
Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.
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