Career Averages - Rinat Fakhretdinov
Career Averages - Nicolas Dalby
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Nicolas Dalby
Rinat Fakhretdinov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andreas Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Gustafsson | 5 of 19 | 26% | 4 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 23 of 42 | 54% | 19 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 29 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andreas Gustafsson | 5 of 19 | 26% | 4 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 23 of 42 | 54% | 19 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 29 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gustafsson (-115); Fakhretdinov (+100)
Round 1
Moving right along, a pair of welterweights who have yet to taste defeat in the cage—recent controversial decision notwithstanding—will throw down and try to hand the other their first loss in the Octagon. Gustafsson (12-2, 1-0 UFC) is 1-for-1 in the promotion thus far, while Russia’s Fakhretdinov (23-1-1, 5-0-1 UFC) has much more experience although most thought Carlos Leal beat him in his last time out. What happened before matters not, as these two are only focused on the man in front of them, plus referee Patricio Carlos. The athletes touch ‘em up before throwing down.
Gustafsson immediately goes on the offensive, swinging for the fences right out of the gate. Gustafsson chases Fakhretdinov around, scoring with every few strikes as the Russian is able to protect himself from the worst of the big swings. Fakhretdinov counters and tags Gustafsson with a one-two, and this completely changes the complexion of the berserker Gustafsson. It may not appear to be the most concussive blow, but it catches “Bane” just right and sends him squirrely.
Backing off to the cage, Gustafsson shells up, but Fakhretdinov goes after him and assaults him with an elbow, the end of a high kick and a veritable kitchen sink of offense. Gustafsson leans against the fencing, and Fakhretdinov clubs him with an onslaught of punches and arcing hammerfists. When the Swede hits the deck, Carlos has seen enough and waves the fight off.
Controversy? What past controversy? Fakhretdinov takes the judges out of the equation by drumming out Gustafsson in under a minute, handing “Bane” his first finish defeat while extending his impressive unbeaten streak one more.
The Official Result
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Andreas Gustafsson R1 0:54 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Andreas Gustafsson but with low confidence, noting the line has flipped from Rinat being favorite to underdog. He acknowledges Rinat's wrestling credentials but points out his poor takedown efficiency (2 for 19 in last fight) and chinny nature. He thinks Gustafsson's relentless pressure and grinding style could cause problems, especially if he defends takedowns. However, he admits Rinat is more experienced and accomplished, and calls this a huge test for Gustafsson. He placed a small bet at +125.
Big Brady picks Andreas Gustafsson, praising his unique clinch game and unlimited cardio. He acknowledges Gustafsson's striking is poor at range but believes he will impose his clinch, wearing on Fakhretdinov with elbows and knees. He sees a potential late finish but predicts a decision win.
Connor picks Gustafsson, emphasizing his relentless pressure and mental toughness. He notes that Fakhretdinov has a history of gassing and that Gustafsson's style of making the fight a punishment will be effective. Connor also points out that Gustafsson's losses have been close decisions and that he has the right mentality to break Fakhretdinov.
The host acknowledges the hype around Gustafsson after his last performance but warns not to overlook Fakhretdinov's wrestling and smothering approach. He leans with Gustafsson winning on the scorecards by landing more damage and getting more meaningful control.
The Guru picks Andreas Gustafsson because he believes Rinat Fakhretdinov has been fortunate in close decisions and that his opponents often fall short. He argues that Gustafsson's constant pressure and volume will overwhelm Fakhretdinov, who won't be able to impose his wrestling. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gustafsson, winning the last two rounds.
Zane picks Gustafsson, citing his relentless pressure and fearlessness. He believes Gustafsson's style will wear down Fakhretdinov, who tends to gas in fights. Zane notes that Fakhretdinov's wrestling is good but Gustafsson's ability to keep coming and make the fight a punishment for his opponent will be key. He also mentions that Gustafsson has only lost close decisions to tough opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 109 of 222 | 49% | 119 of 236 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Carlos Leal | 0 | 107 of 246 | 43% | 146 of 292 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 28 of 59 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Carlos Leal | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 56 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 33 of 68 | 48% | 37 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Carlos Leal | 0 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 44 of 94 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 52 of 101 | 51% | 54 of 104 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Carlos Leal | 0 | 42 of 97 | 43% | 46 of 103 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 109 of 222 | 49% | 82 of 184 | 15 of 26 | 12 of 12 | 96 of 197 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Leal | 107 of 246 | 43% | 72 of 207 | 16 of 20 | 19 of 19 | 94 of 231 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 24 of 53 | 45% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Leal | 28 of 63 | 44% | 19 of 53 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 33 of 68 | 48% | 24 of 56 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 65 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Leal | 37 of 86 | 43% | 25 of 72 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 35 of 83 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 52 of 101 | 51% | 41 of 85 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 41 of 85 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Leal | 42 of 97 | 43% | 28 of 82 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 35 of 89 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Fakhretdinov, emphasizing his dominant wrestling. He acknowledges Leal has good striking and takedown defense but believes Fakhretdinov will implement his will with cage pushing and control time. He predicts a decision win, possibly boring.
Cody picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, believing his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Leal has questionable takedown defense and that Fakhretdinov can grind out a decision. However, Cody is not confident because Fakhretdinov has gassed in recent fights and struggled against strikers. He expects a decision win.
Connor picks Fakhretdinov, agreeing that Leal is a good veteran but his game is not modern MMA. Leal relies on kicks and clinch wrestling but lacks pace and volume. Fakhretdinov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Leal, and this fight was made to give Fakhretdinov a decisive win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win, but with low confidence due to Fakhretdinov's recent performances and questionable gas tank. He notes that Fakhretdinov has dominant top-time upside and that Leal is taking the fight on short notice. Vreeland would need a better price to bet Fakhretdinov, but expects him to get takedowns and potentially grind out a win.
Daniel Vreeland sees Rinat Fakhretdinov as a tough matchup for Carlos Leal, especially on short notice. He notes that Leal lost twice to Magomed Umalatov in PFL, who used clinch and takedowns to outmuscle him, and Fakhretdinov has similar skills. Vreeland believes Fakhretdinov will grind out a win via takedowns and control, and thinks the -250 line is still low.
Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, calling Fakhretdinov a tough matchup for anyone. He notes that Leal has weight-cutting issues and is making his UFC debut on short notice, which makes it even harder. Fox expects Fakhretdinov to grind out a win, though he doesn't provide additional technical detail.
Fakhretdinov has a wrestling and grappling advantage over the short-notice UFC debutant Leal. He should be able to grind out a decision victory by controlling the fight on the ground. Leal deserves to be in the UFC but this is a bad stylistic matchup for him.
Paul picks Fakhretdinov, citing his wrestling and control. He notes that Leal is a good striker but has been taken down before. Paul believes Fakhretdinov can implement a grappling-heavy game plan and win by decision. He is not highly confident due to Fakhretdinov's cardio issues.
The Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, believing his pressure and well-rounded game will be too much for Carlos Leal, who took the fight on short notice. He notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle was impressive and that Leal's preparation was for a different opponent. He predicts Fakhretdinov will win by decision or submission, possibly facing some danger early.
Zane picks Fakhretdinov because he is a pressure fighter who will clash with Leal and win the clinch wrestling exchanges. Leal is awkward, flat-footed, and lacks pace and volume, while Fakhretdinov keeps pushing and is tough to dissuade. Zane sees this as a clear matchup made for Fakhretdinov to get a statement win.
Zane clearly picked Leal, calling the decision a robbery. He argued that Fakhretdinov was doing less damage and fighting from behind in every round, while Leal fought well and was in control. Zane dismissed the idea that the crowd influenced the judges, noting there was no crowd. He called it one of the worst robberies of the year.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 68 of 134 | 50% | 99 of 173 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 6:17 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 66 of 134 | 49% | 123 of 195 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 40 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 31 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 37 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 48 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 22 of 45 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 44 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 68 of 134 | 50% | 53 of 113 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 49 of 109 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 66 of 134 | 49% | 36 of 96 | 25 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 95 | 28 of 39 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 27 of 52 | 51% | 21 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 21 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 17 of 41 | 41% | 6 of 27 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 24 of 46 | 52% | 17 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 34 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 31 of 53 | 58% | 17 of 34 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 33 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 17 of 36 | 47% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 40 | 45% | 13 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fakhretdinov (-355), Dalby (+280)
Round 1
The welterweights set up in orthodox stance and go right at one another, with referee Thomas Fan looking on. They exchange kicks at range before Dalby walks through a flurry of punches to shove Fakhretdinov into the fence. Dalby throws knees from the outside while Fakhretdinov answers with knees up the middle. Fakhretdinov gets off the cage and shucks Dalby away from him, and they go back to kickboxing at range. Dalby flicks a kick up top that is blocked, then a question mark kick. Fakhretdinov tags Dalby with a pair of punches, then changes levels for a single-leg. He hoists the leg and Dalby hops on one foot while continuing to punch the head. Fakhretdinov drives him all the way across the cage before losing the single-leg. He pushes Dalby into the cage, then gets reversed. Fakhretdinov shucks Dalby off of him and nails him with a single punch that drops Dalby to his knees. Dalby pops back up, but he’s hurt, and Fakhretdinov pushes him to the fence. They disengage and Fakhretdinov hits him with an elbow. Fakhretdinov lands a switch knee to the gut before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Round 2
Dalby scores first, with a low calf kick. Dalby switches stances, and is backed off by a punching combo from Fakhretdinov. Fakhretdinov gets him to the fence, then changes levels and drives him to the canvas. Dalby gets right back up, his back against the fence. They break off and return to the middle of the cage. Dalby initiates the clinch and shoves Fakhretdinov to the cage. They exchange short strikes on the inside. Dalby releases the clinch and nails Fakhretdinov with a nice right hand. They move back towards the center of the Octagon, and Dalby marches forward, landing a kick and a pair of punches, then another kick. Dalby backs Fakhretdinov into the fence and holds him there with underhooks. Dalby digs his head under the chin of Fakhretdinov and hits him with knees to the thighs. They separate and Fakhretdinov lands a one-two, then changes levels for a smooth double-leg. He drops Dalby to his seat at the base of the fence, lacing the legs. He can’t flatten Dalby out, and they return to their feet seconds before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Dalby flicks out a jab, but Fakhretdinov wastes no time in changing levels and running him to the fence. Fakhretdinov tries to lock his hands and pick Dalby up, but Dalby has an underhook and keeps his hips back. They break away from the fence and Dalby grabs a front headlock, then lands a single punch before Fakhretdinov launches another double-leg. Dalby tries to hit an inside switch, but can’t get it. Fakhretdinov has his arms around the waist of the kneeling Dalby, working to finish the takedown as Dalby tries to stand. Halfway into the round, Dalby gets to his feet in a wide-leg stance against the fence, and he separates. Dalby wades forward with punches, and Fakhretdinov drops for another takedown. He gets Dalby to his seat against the fence, but Dalby gets right back up and gets on Fakhretdinov’s back. Fakhretdinov escapes and runs Dalby back to the cage. Dalby reverses the position and throws knees to the thighs of Fakhretdinov. Under a minute left and Dalby separates, then tags Fakhretdinov with a head kick at short range. They swing away at short range until the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
The Official Result
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Nicolas Dalby via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
Angelo picks Rinat, citing his phenomenal non-stop wrestling and power. He notes Rinat gassed in his last fight after chasing the finish, but still dominated the first two rounds. He thinks Dalby is hitable and will be taken down repeatedly. He acknowledges Dalby's win over Bonfim was more about Bonfim's cardio than Dalby's skill. He plans to spend $9,200 on Rinat in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov confidently, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Dalby's 60% takedown defense and that fighters like Claudia Silva and Tim Means have controlled him. Brady expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision due to Dalby's toughness, but a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Fakhretdinov's fantasy score under 94.5.
Cody picks Fakhretdinov but is hesitant due to the price and Dalby's comeback ability. He notes Fakhretdinov's wrestling and power, but also his cardio issues and Dalby's experience and durability. He expects Fakhretdinov to win early but warns of a potential fade.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win a decision, expecting him to take the first two rounds with wrestling pressure. He notes Dalby's third-round resurgence but believes Fakhretdinov's takedowns and grinding style will secure a win. He acknowledges Dalby's cardio and finishing ability but sees Fakhretdinov controlling the fight early.
Jacob picks Rinat but does not trust him due to his mentality—he was happy with a draw after nearly getting finished. Jacob worries Rinat will try to knock Dalby out instead of wrestling, which could lead to trouble. He compares Rinat's attitude to Loopy Godinez, saying it's not a killer mentality. However, he acknowledges Rinat should win if he sticks to wrestling.
JP is confident in Fakhretdinov, citing his 22-2 record with 11 KOs and 7 subs, and notes Dalby's tendency to go to decision (12-4 in decisions). He expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision. Brevan agrees, highlighting Fakhretdinov's strong wrestling base and ability to control Dalby on the ground. He suggests a prop bet on Fakhretdinov by decision if the odds are plus money. Both see Fakhretdinov as the clear winner.
Paul does not make a winner pick but suggests Dalby as a live bet. He notes Fakhretdinov will likely get takedowns but may gas, and Dalby's ability to get up and outwork him. He prefers to watch and potentially bet Dalby live.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Nicolas Dalby, after initially considering Dalby. He rewatched Dalby's fight with Gabriel Bonfim and was less impressed, noting that Dalby was held down for significant periods. He believes Fakhretdinov's patient top game will be effective, as he doesn't chase submissions and is content to hold opponents down. He contrasts this with Bonfim's scrambling, which allowed Dalby to escape. He also notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle as impressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 1 | 87 of 186 | 46% | 109 of 216 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 4:25 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 1 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 27 of 73 | 36% | 32 of 78 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 30 of 63 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:29 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 43 of 68 | 63% | 76 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 87 of 186 | 46% | 50 of 144 | 11 of 16 | 26 of 26 | 65 of 156 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 22 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 75 of 152 | 49% | 47 of 113 | 17 of 26 | 11 of 13 | 57 of 129 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 37 of 61 | 60% | 17 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 15 | 21 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 10 of 34 | 29% | 5 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 27 of 73 | 36% | 15 of 57 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 24 of 70 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 22 of 50 | 44% | 12 of 38 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 23 of 52 | 44% | 18 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 43 of 68 | 63% | 30 of 50 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 17 |
Angelo is very high on Fakhretdinov, calling him the pick done right. He highlights Fakhretdinov's non-stop wrestling, power, and pressure. He thinks the 36-year-old Zaleski won't have what it takes. Angelo has made money on Fakhretdinov in every UFC fight and likes him even more now. He considers Fakhretdinov safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by decision. He notes Fakhretdinov's dominant wrestling, controlling Brian Battle for 14 minutes and taking down Andreas Michailidis five times. He believes Fakhretdinov can take down Zaleski and grind out a decision, though he's not sure about a finish. He acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and BJJ but favors Fakhretdinov's wrestling and cardio.
Daniel Levi picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, impressed by his incredible stats: absorbs less than one strike per minute, 67% striking accuracy, over 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 100% takedown defense. He sees Fakhretdinov as a dominant wrestler who can control and finish fights. Levi respects Zaleski's toughness and highlight-reel kicks, but believes at 36 years old and coming off a suspension, Zaleski is in a tough spot. He expects Fakhretdinov to pressure, take him down, and possibly finish him.
James bet on Zaleski at +290, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Zaleski has much better takedown defense than Fakhretdinov's previous opponents and that if the fight stays on the feet, Zaleski is the more educated striker with nasty setups. He worries that Zaleski may be washed and can get hurt early, as seen in the Abubakar fight, but he also has Russian intel suggesting Fakhretdinov may be dealing with an injury and might strike more than grapple. James sees value in Zaleski as an underdog.
Fakhretdinov is a strong grappler with high-level cardio who chains takedowns together well. Zaleski may fend off takedowns early, but as the fight goes on, Fakhretdinov's pressure will be too much. He will accumulate top control time and win by decision. The line is a bit wide but Fakhretdinov should implement his style without too much resistance.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He acknowledges Zaleski's underrated resume but notes his age and recent performances. The Guru highlights Fakhretdinov's dominant win over Brian Battle and his improving hands, combining grappling and striking. He believes Fakhretdinov's athleticism and pressure will be too much for the older Zaleski, predicting a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Lee | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Lee | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Lee | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Lee | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing his offensive wrestling, heavy hands, and insane cardio. He believes Kevin Lee's only chance is to come forward and initiate takedowns, but he doubts Lee can take down Fakhretdinov. He notes the line has moved from -260 to -190, indicating money on Lee, but he is shocked the odds are close.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Fakhretdinov has a size and cardio advantage, and is in his prime, while Kevin Lee has been battling injuries and is small for welterweight. However, he acknowledges if prime Kevin Lee shows up, the price would be a steal. He thinks Fakhretdinov's wrestling and pace will be too much for the current version of Lee.
Cody reluctantly picks Kevin Lee as a plus-money underdog. He notes Lee's past success against top competition, his never losing a first round in the UFC, and his improved knees after surgery. He thinks Fakhretdinov's wins over Andreas Michailidis and Brian Battle are unimpressive and that Lee's striking and wrestling are superior. However, he acknowledges Lee's poor performance against Diego Sanchez and the size disadvantage.
Daniel confidently picks Fakhretdinov, citing his dominant grappling and striking stats (7 takedowns, 102-25 strikes against Battle; 5 takedowns, 106-48 strikes against Michailidis). He criticizes Kevin Lee as a front-runner who fades when pressured, and notes Lee's 1-4 skid before being cut. He expects Fakhretdinov to impose his will and finish Lee, possibly by submission or TKO. He dismisses the 'crotch sniffer' label, emphasizing that Fakhretdinov outstrikes opponents as well.
Paul picks Fakhretdinov, citing his size advantage (natural welterweight vs Lee moving up), dominant performance against Brian Battle, and Lee's poor showing against Diego Sanchez. He notes Lee's knee surgeries and layoff, and believes Fakhretdinov's grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Lee may have peaked and is now declining.
The Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing Kevin Lee's decline, especially his poor performance against Diego Sanchez. He notes Fakhretdinov's dominance over Brian Battle, who is a solid prospect. He predicts Fakhretdinov will dominate in later rounds, getting a third-round TKO or rear-naked choke, as Lee's cardio and chin are questionable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Battle | 1 | 43 of 68 | 63% | 102 of 149 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 14:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Battle | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 37 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Battle | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 30 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Battle | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 35 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 3 of 16 | 18% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Battle | 43 of 68 | 63% | 38 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 33 of 54 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Battle | 19 of 30 | 63% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Battle | 10 of 15 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Battle | 14 of 23 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 17 |
Angelo picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing that Bryan Battle is stepping up on short notice and facing the toughest opponent of his career. He believes Fakhretdinov's wrestling will be the difference, as Battle has poor takedown accuracy. He acknowledges Battle is a live underdog and plans to look for prop bets on him.
Big Brady picks Bryan Battle as an underdog, citing Fakhretdinov's padded record against low-level competition. He likes Battle's striking, power, opportunistic submission game, and cardio. However, he notes Battle is hittable and has defensive issues, and Fakhretdinov has power. He expects Fakhretdinov to have early success but Battle to wear on him and get a late submission. He needs to see Battle's weight cut to increase confidence.
Cody picks Battle as an underdog, believing his volume and striking can win rounds. He thinks Fakhretdinov's lay-and-pray style may not impress judges. He notes Battle has good takedown defense and cardio. He is not confident but sees value.
Connor picks Fakhretdinov, expecting him to come out dedicated to an ugly wrestling game. He notes Battle is too takedownable and depends on scrambling after bad stuff. He thinks Fakhretdinov's clingy wrestling will be the answer to Battle's volume-based style.
Battle's style, pace, and pressure will cause Fakhretdinov problems, making him work too much and slow down. Battle either finishes in the third or wins a decision. The line moved against the host to +130, but he still likes the matchup. The main question is whether Battle can maintain his cardio at this weight class.
Paul picks Fakhretdinov, noting his wrestling and control. He thinks Battle's takedown defense is not elite and Fakhretdinov will take him down. He is not sure about betting because of judging concerns but picks him.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Bryan Battle, disagreeing with the majority picking Battle. He highlights Fakhretdinov's dominant wrestling, citing 14 minutes of control time against Andreas Michailidis and a recent freestyle wrestling match where he made his opponent retire. He notes Battle took the fight on short notice and questions his preparation, suggesting Battle might be looking for a paycheck before Christmas. He believes Fakhretdinov's grappling is a different level and that Battle's takedown defense won't be enough.
Zane agrees, noting Fakhretdinov's persistent wrestling game is the kryptonite to Battle's style of weathering attacks. He thinks Battle has no full dimension while Fakhretdinov has one strong dimension. He expects Fakhretdinov to take Battle down and test his guard.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 45 of 61 | 73% | 106 of 130 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 13:00 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 48 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 33 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 24 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 31 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 23 of 28 | 82% | 42 of 51 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 45 of 61 | 73% | 27 of 41 | 10 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 20 | 18 of 22 | 17 of 19 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 18 of 33 | 54% | 7 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 22 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 17 of 25 | 68% | 7 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 7 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 12 of 17 | 70% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 23 of 28 | 82% | 16 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 14 |
| Andreas Michailidis | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo notes that Andreas Michailidis is a decent striker with power but leaves openings, while Rinat Fakhretdinov is a wrestler with heavy hands making his UFC debut. He acknowledges Fakhretdinov's poor wrestling technique but says it works in fights. He worries about the -321 odds for a debutant but still picks Fakhretdinov to get the takedown and pound away.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by late finish, specifically a third-round submission or ground-and-pound. He notes that Fakhretdinov is a solid grappler with good cardio and ground game, while Michailidis is talented but has terrible cardio and tends to fade after the first round. He expects Fakhretdinov to take the fight to the mat and wear Michailidis down, eventually finishing him. He is not betting this fight due to the -260 price but likes the pick.
Cody is uncertain but leans toward Michailidis, noting Fakhretdinov's questionable competition and Michailidis' size at 170. He thinks the line is too wide and may take the dog, but is not confident.
Daniel Levi picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, noting Michailidis's history of being finished and his cardio issues. He believes Fakhretdinov has the power and pressure to get the job done, especially with his training at American Top Team. He recommends the inside distance prop at -110 as a better bet than the moneyline.
Paul picks Michailidis as an underdog, arguing that Fakhretdinov's record is padded with cans and he lacks wrestling. He notes Michailidis' size advantage at 170 and thinks the price is too wide. He is not highly confident but sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by first-round KO. He notes Fakhretdinov has stepped up against decent competition recently, with first-round finishes over Eric Spicely and Alberto Uda. He worries about early career padding but trusts his recent performances. He sees Michailidis as vulnerable, having been finished in four of five losses, and believes Fakhretdinov's power and grappling will be too much. He predicts a first-round KO.
Nicolas Dalby - Fight History
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No pick was made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 87 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 6:29 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 65 of 88 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 5:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 42 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:55 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 26 of 63 | 41% | 13 of 41 | 8 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 40 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 20 of 34 | 58% | 11 of 23 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 41 | 43% | 11 of 29 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 24 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Izagakhmaev (-300); Dalby (+240)
Round 1
At the age of 41 and on his first losing streak in years, “Danish Dynamite” Dalby (23-6-1, 2 NC; 7-5-1, 1 NC UFC) knows that his back is against the wall in this welterweight encounter. Despite his lack of success lately, at least he has been competing. This will be the first time One Championship vet Izagakhmaev (22-2, 0-0 UFC) has fought in just about three years, a training partner of new welterweight champ Islam Makhachev. This classic matchup of Denmark vs. Russia will be officiated by referee Lukasz Bosacki, and the bout starts without a fist bump in sight.
Dolby takes the steam out of the Russian engine immediately by crashing forward into his personal space to engage in a clinch. He proceeds to knee Izagakhmaev in the thigh again and again, with short but irritating strikes smacking him on either side. It takes less than a minute in this position for the crowd to turn on these two fighters, even with Izagakhmaev giving back Dalby nearly as many knees as he absorbs. Dalby considers outside trips on both legs, and Izagakhmaev lifts his foot up without concern of getting grounded. Bosacki claps for the two to do more than this, and Dalby transitions to a single-leg takedown attempt. Izagakhmaev stands Dalby up, and there is a partial cup strike from one of the knees that is almost called but Bosacki steps back. As this stalemate continues, Bosacki separates them.
Dalby backs off and pitches a low kick and then one high. He mixes up his targets low and high, keeping Izagakhmaev guessing with his varied offense. Izagakhmaev offers jabs while Dalby is erratically striking him, and he shoots for a takedown that Dalby turns around into his own attempt. Izagakhmaev backs himself to the wall to defend it, and Dalby is glad to engage in this tie-up. Izagakhmaev counters a trip attempt to hurl Dalby to his back, and he lands in three-quarter mount. Dalby posts off his right arm in hopes of escaping, and Izagakhmaev wraps him up and drills him in the chest with a knee. Dalby works his way back upright and turns Izagakhmaev’s back to the fence, and clinch strikes from both sides are where this grueling round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
The round begins with a Dalby head kick attempt. This opens Izagakhmaev up to blocking and charging ahead so he can hit a clean takedown within seconds. Dalby grabs the fence to pull himself up to his seat, and he works his way to his feet methodically without taking any noteworthy damage. Dalby huffs and puffs to stand up and turn Izagakhmaev to the fence, taking a knee or two to the body but giving them right back. Dalby stalls out the Russian again in the clinch, kneeing him regularly and taking a few back. Izagakhmaev drops down to pursue a double-leg takedown, and even with Dalby sprawling correctly, Izagakhmaev still manages to put Dalby on his seat for a moment. Dalby pops right back up, and he thwarts the mat return effort and turns Izagakhmaev’s back to the fence again. Dalby firmly embraces the grind, holding Izagakhmaev there until Izagakhmaev is tired of being stuck against the fence.
Dalby tries to take the fight down in the open cage, and Izagakhmaev uses that against him and manages to not only control Dalby, but actually take his back in the process. Izagakhmaev secures a body triangle around the waist and starts to fish for chokes. Dalby uses a two-on-one grip on the Russian’s right hand to prevent anything from coming together. After holding steady in this position for a while, “Lokomotivo” twists out at the right moment to turn over and find himself in Izagakhmaev’s guard. Dalby rains down punches and elbows in hopes of turning the momentum of the match in his favor and possibly swaying the judges, doing so until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Round 3
The welterweights wade towards one another, and Dalby once more fires off a head kick to close the distance. He uses this kick and a subsequent right hand to get up close and personal with the Russian to re-engage his clinch. Dalby uses his knees in the clinch to work Izagakhmaev over, and he stops Izagakhmaev from getting off a takedown. Izagakhmaev breaks free for a second, only for Dalby to jam him up again. Once more, Izagakhmaev gains some space, and he puts a one-two on the chin of the Danish man. Dalby loops a head kick at him and tries to tie him up in the center of the cage, succeeding in doing so to put the Russian on the wire. Both fighters land a few solid clinch strikes, and Dalby keeps after Izagakhmaev with heavy pressure.
Izagakhmaev look to turn the tables with a takedown shot, and Dalby sprawls and puts his back to the fence for defense. Dalby fights off the multiple attempts and allows himself to hit his seat so he can circle around and grab Izagakhmaev from behind. Izagakhmaev gets out of that position and pursues a double, and Dalby knees him square in the face. Izagakhmaev drops down to a knee so that he does not take more of those, and Dalby thinks about a front choke but does not have the horsepower to get it. Dalby dirty boxes Izagakhmaev up until Izagakhmaev breaks off, and Dalby meanders after him, swarming him with labored offense. Dalby’s swings and knees may be off-kilter, but they are landing while Izagakhmaev is not. They lob strikes at one another until the round ends, and when the final horn blares, Izagakhmaev rips out his mouthpiece and tosses it to the floor in frustration.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Saygid Izagakhmaev via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Saygid Izagakhmaev (Side Gig) to dominate Nicolas Dalby. He notes Izagakhmaev is a powerful striker with patient pressure and explosive power, plus effective wrestling. Dalby, an aging karate-style striker, is hittable and has low takedown accuracy. Angelo sees this as a showcase fight for the prospect, expecting Izagakhmaev to finish or drown Dalby with wrestling.
Big Brady picks Saygid Izagakhmaev (Kakhramonov) by decision, citing his well-rounded skills and Dalby's age (41) and recent knockout loss. He expects Kakhramonov to land big shots, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, though a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions the judges may favor Kakhramonov.
Cody picks Saygid Izagakhmaev, noting his youth and wrestling. He believes Dalby is old and has declined, and that Izagakhmaev can take him down and control him. Cody thinks the location in Qatar favors Izagakhmaev.
Connor agrees, picking Dalby. He notes that Izagakhmaev's game is not pretty and he has technical gaps. He says Dalby knows how he wins fights and is committed to pressure. He thinks Izagakhmaev could blast Dalby off his feet, but he knows what to expect from Dalby and it's a brutally hard fight.
Lucrative James picks Nicolas Dalby as an underdog, questioning Izagakhmaev's high odds. He notes Dalby's toughness and experience, and Izagakhmaev's long layoff and submission loss. He believes Dalby can win a decision or even finish. He sees value in the underdog.
Izagakhmaev is a Dagestani wrestler with a smothering style, but he hasn't competed in three years. Dalby is durable and has a cardio edge, making the fight close. The prediction is Izagakhmaev by decision, but a sprinkle on Dalby at plus odds is considered due to the wide line.
Paul picks Saygid Izagakhmaev, citing his wrestling and youth. He notes that Dalby is 41 and has looked washed. Paul believes Izagakhmaev's takedowns and control will be too much.
The MMA Guru picks Saygid Izagakhmaev over Nicolas Dalby, citing Izagakhmaev's wicked submission game and experience in One FC. He notes Dalby's recent KO loss and age. He believes Izagakhmaev's ability to go to decisions and his prime age (31) will be too much for Dalby. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Dalby despite his age, noting that Izagakhmaev has been inactive for three years and lost to Carlson Harris and Elias Silverio. He says Dalby is a tough, pressure fighter who makes opponents miserable. He worries that the Randy Brown loss might be the beginning of the end, but Dalby has shown remarkable resilience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 1 | 54 of 114 | 47% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 1 | 26 of 74 | 35% | 40 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 1 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 1 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 54 of 114 | 47% | 45 of 103 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 54 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 26 of 74 | 35% | 12 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 13 of 19 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 22 of 52 | 42% | 19 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 15 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 32 of 62 | 51% | 26 of 55 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 35 | 31% | 6 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-238), Dalby (+195)
Round 1
A clash of well-traveled welterweights keeps the main card pushing. Looking to get back in the win column, Brown (19-6, 13-6 UFC) will have to outlast the ultra-durable Dane Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC; 7-4-1, 1 NC UFC) as the latter has never been finished. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready should this go the full duration, and he commences the nonsense-free bout as Brown sprints at his opponent without a glove touch in sight. Brown pulls back before crashing into his opponent, and he repositions himself to his preferred distant striking range with significant reach in his favor on the hands and legs. He uses those long arms to set up jabs and stay away from Dalby’s reaching left hook, but the slapping kick from Dalby is effective on the front leg. He goes for it two more times before having to reset and absorb a right hand on the chin. Dalby gets off with another kick, and Brown freezes him with a clubbing right hook. The Dane gathers himself and slings back, but the only one that lands is his low kick on the calf. Brown leaves himself wide open and is skipped with a left hand on the temple. Frustrated by the strike, “Rude Boy” puts everything he has into a left and a vicious right hand, not only staggering Brown but completely shattering his nose like Marsha and the football. Eternally tough, Dalby manages to bounce off the fencing and swing back, but he is compromised from a damage and breathing perspective. Brown does not go for broke, instead picking his shots carefully, and he inflicts further harm and swells up Dalby’s left eye. Dalby complains about an eye poke, and Peterson tells Brown to not leave his fingers outstretched. Brown acknowledges this and wings a right hand, only to get belted with a massive hook that knocks him off his feet. Dalby pounces, blood pouring from his destroyed nose, and he works Brown over with short ground strikes. Dalby uses his arm to control Brown, and he drops down one more elbow before the bell. The doctors are quick to assess Dalby’s condition, and they appear to partially reset his beak while tending to it. It probably will not stay that way for long when getting punched again in the next round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Round 2
Dalby is good to go, giving Peterson a thumbs-up even as his left eye is nearly closed. He is fired up, rushing after “Rude Boy” with swarming punches and swinging kicks. Brown flicks out jabs and front kicks, allowing Dalby to buzz past him, and he punctuates a combo with a hard body kick. Dalby strikes the front leg and comes up short with an overhand right, and Brown continues to pepper the face with jabs and a mean-spirited front kick. Brown’s jab keeps Dalby at bay until Dalby has had enough of taking them, walking through a knee to the body and launching a huge right hand. Brown bounces off the fence, in trouble but still in the fight, and he separates and backpedals. Dalby continues crashing towards his opponent, launching big right hands that force Brown to take desperate measures to stay out of danger. Brown grabs hold of Dalby in a brief clinch to turn him around and his back to the wall, and he measures his target with a step-in knee and a short but sweet right hand directly on the jaw that buckles Dalby’s knees. Dalby recognizes this and bounces on them to try to shake it off, and Brown uncorks a nasty right hand on the jaw that hurts “Danish Dynamite” badly. Dalby uses the fence behind him to stay upright, and Brown waits for Dalby to stand straight up and smashes him in the face with a ferocious overhand right and a speedy left to follow. Dalby not only takes them on the chin but fires back with his own short salvo, catching Brown but taking some punishment on the way in. The 40-year-old has to take a second to step back and assess his condition, and he evades a massive uppercut by a matter of millimeters. Brown keeps swinging, ignoring anything coming back his direction and unloading a nuclear missile of a right hand that explodes on the temple and puts Dalby down once and for all. Brown walks away, saluting his fallen adversary, while Peterson rushes in along with a doctor to check on Dalby who is crumpled in a heap. “Knockout of the Year,” you have a new contender as Dalby had never been finished as a professional and he is laying down face-first in a pool of his own blood. What an incredible knockout, concluding a titanic brawl that will remain on highlight reels for years to come. Dalby comes to, and he is able to applaud Brown for his handiwork.
The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Nicolas Dalby R2 1:39 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, speed, technical striking, and high fight IQ. He notes that Nicolas Dalby relies on cardio and weird breathing, but Brown should piece him up and avoid danger. The only concern is a rogue judge who might appreciate Dalby's pressure, but Brown is the cleaner fighter.
Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, reach advantage, and the big cage favoring his range striking. He expects Brown to pick Dalby apart over three rounds and win a decision. He notes Brown often makes fights closer than expected, but still favors him.
Connor picks Dalby because of his relentless pressure and drive to win rounds, contrasting with Randy Brown's inconsistency and tendency to lose focus. Dalby's multi-layered pressure, durability, and strength will make the fight miserable for Brown, who often gets cornered and loses. Connor notes that Brown has all the tools but lacks the discipline to use them consistently.
The host believes Dalby's reliance on his hardware will deteriorate at age 40, allowing Brown to showcase flaws and batter Dalby from distance for a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, citing his improved savvy in three-round fights and ability to handle Dalby's pressure. He notes Brown's reach advantage and that Dalby's head kick won't work on a taller opponent. He expects Brown to win by decision or late TKO, as Dalby is older and has more wear and tear.
Zane picks Dalby, agreeing that Dalby's relentless pressure and ability to make fights ugly will overwhelm Brown, who is prone to making poor decisions and getting cornered. Zane points out that Brown's loss to Brian Battle is a blueprint for how Dalby can win. Dalby may not have the tools to dominate, but his drive and consistency will earn him rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 68 of 134 | 50% | 99 of 173 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 6:17 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 66 of 134 | 49% | 123 of 195 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 40 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 31 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 37 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 48 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 22 of 45 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 44 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 68 of 134 | 50% | 53 of 113 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 49 of 109 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 66 of 134 | 49% | 36 of 96 | 25 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 95 | 28 of 39 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 27 of 52 | 51% | 21 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 21 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 17 of 41 | 41% | 6 of 27 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 24 of 46 | 52% | 17 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 34 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 31 of 53 | 58% | 17 of 34 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 33 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 17 of 36 | 47% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 40 | 45% | 13 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fakhretdinov (-355), Dalby (+280)
Round 1
The welterweights set up in orthodox stance and go right at one another, with referee Thomas Fan looking on. They exchange kicks at range before Dalby walks through a flurry of punches to shove Fakhretdinov into the fence. Dalby throws knees from the outside while Fakhretdinov answers with knees up the middle. Fakhretdinov gets off the cage and shucks Dalby away from him, and they go back to kickboxing at range. Dalby flicks a kick up top that is blocked, then a question mark kick. Fakhretdinov tags Dalby with a pair of punches, then changes levels for a single-leg. He hoists the leg and Dalby hops on one foot while continuing to punch the head. Fakhretdinov drives him all the way across the cage before losing the single-leg. He pushes Dalby into the cage, then gets reversed. Fakhretdinov shucks Dalby off of him and nails him with a single punch that drops Dalby to his knees. Dalby pops back up, but he’s hurt, and Fakhretdinov pushes him to the fence. They disengage and Fakhretdinov hits him with an elbow. Fakhretdinov lands a switch knee to the gut before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Round 2
Dalby scores first, with a low calf kick. Dalby switches stances, and is backed off by a punching combo from Fakhretdinov. Fakhretdinov gets him to the fence, then changes levels and drives him to the canvas. Dalby gets right back up, his back against the fence. They break off and return to the middle of the cage. Dalby initiates the clinch and shoves Fakhretdinov to the cage. They exchange short strikes on the inside. Dalby releases the clinch and nails Fakhretdinov with a nice right hand. They move back towards the center of the Octagon, and Dalby marches forward, landing a kick and a pair of punches, then another kick. Dalby backs Fakhretdinov into the fence and holds him there with underhooks. Dalby digs his head under the chin of Fakhretdinov and hits him with knees to the thighs. They separate and Fakhretdinov lands a one-two, then changes levels for a smooth double-leg. He drops Dalby to his seat at the base of the fence, lacing the legs. He can’t flatten Dalby out, and they return to their feet seconds before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Dalby flicks out a jab, but Fakhretdinov wastes no time in changing levels and running him to the fence. Fakhretdinov tries to lock his hands and pick Dalby up, but Dalby has an underhook and keeps his hips back. They break away from the fence and Dalby grabs a front headlock, then lands a single punch before Fakhretdinov launches another double-leg. Dalby tries to hit an inside switch, but can’t get it. Fakhretdinov has his arms around the waist of the kneeling Dalby, working to finish the takedown as Dalby tries to stand. Halfway into the round, Dalby gets to his feet in a wide-leg stance against the fence, and he separates. Dalby wades forward with punches, and Fakhretdinov drops for another takedown. He gets Dalby to his seat against the fence, but Dalby gets right back up and gets on Fakhretdinov’s back. Fakhretdinov escapes and runs Dalby back to the cage. Dalby reverses the position and throws knees to the thighs of Fakhretdinov. Under a minute left and Dalby separates, then tags Fakhretdinov with a head kick at short range. They swing away at short range until the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
The Official Result
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Nicolas Dalby via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
Angelo picks Rinat, citing his phenomenal non-stop wrestling and power. He notes Rinat gassed in his last fight after chasing the finish, but still dominated the first two rounds. He thinks Dalby is hitable and will be taken down repeatedly. He acknowledges Dalby's win over Bonfim was more about Bonfim's cardio than Dalby's skill. He plans to spend $9,200 on Rinat in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov confidently, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Dalby's 60% takedown defense and that fighters like Claudia Silva and Tim Means have controlled him. Brady expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision due to Dalby's toughness, but a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Fakhretdinov's fantasy score under 94.5.
Cody picks Fakhretdinov but is hesitant due to the price and Dalby's comeback ability. He notes Fakhretdinov's wrestling and power, but also his cardio issues and Dalby's experience and durability. He expects Fakhretdinov to win early but warns of a potential fade.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win a decision, expecting him to take the first two rounds with wrestling pressure. He notes Dalby's third-round resurgence but believes Fakhretdinov's takedowns and grinding style will secure a win. He acknowledges Dalby's cardio and finishing ability but sees Fakhretdinov controlling the fight early.
Jacob picks Rinat but does not trust him due to his mentality—he was happy with a draw after nearly getting finished. Jacob worries Rinat will try to knock Dalby out instead of wrestling, which could lead to trouble. He compares Rinat's attitude to Loopy Godinez, saying it's not a killer mentality. However, he acknowledges Rinat should win if he sticks to wrestling.
JP is confident in Fakhretdinov, citing his 22-2 record with 11 KOs and 7 subs, and notes Dalby's tendency to go to decision (12-4 in decisions). He expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision. Brevan agrees, highlighting Fakhretdinov's strong wrestling base and ability to control Dalby on the ground. He suggests a prop bet on Fakhretdinov by decision if the odds are plus money. Both see Fakhretdinov as the clear winner.
Paul does not make a winner pick but suggests Dalby as a live bet. He notes Fakhretdinov will likely get takedowns but may gas, and Dalby's ability to get up and outwork him. He prefers to watch and potentially bet Dalby live.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Nicolas Dalby, after initially considering Dalby. He rewatched Dalby's fight with Gabriel Bonfim and was less impressed, noting that Dalby was held down for significant periods. He believes Fakhretdinov's patient top game will be effective, as he doesn't chase submissions and is content to hold opponents down. He contrasts this with Bonfim's scrambling, which allowed Dalby to escape. He also notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle as impressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 47 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 1 | 53 of 113 | 46% | 64 of 128 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 35 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 16 of 47 | 34% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 12 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 1 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 42 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 39 of 91 | 42% | 27 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 32 of 71 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 11 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 53 of 113 | 46% | 41 of 96 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 76 | 25 of 33 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 30 of 60 | 50% | 18 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 26 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 11 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 16 of 47 | 34% | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 37 of 66 | 56% | 30 of 55 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 24 of 31 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-625), Dalby (+455)
Round 1
On Friday morning, two Bonfim brothers were expected to be competing on this lineup. After elder brother Ismael missed weight by a boat anchor, Gabriel Bonfim (15-0, 2-0 UFC) will be the one repping the family tonight. Putting the family reputation as well as his spotless record and 100% finish rate on the line, Bonfim draws an extremely tough test in Dalby (22-4-1, 2 NC; 6-3-1, 1 NC UFC). While arguably the greatest fighter from Denmark to compete in MMA—Martin Kampmann may disagree—Dalby is also known from having one of the wildest fights in MMA history against Ross Houston in Cage Warriors, when so much blood was spilled on the vinyl cage floor, referee Marc Goddard had to call the title fight off in the third round. This “Just Bleed” mentality comes with him in this co-main event, and Bonfim will have his hands full here. Referee Jason Herzog is cool and collected, but inside he’s amped up and ready, and the fighters are as well. Bonfim would rather get right to business, and wastes no time with a glove touch. Instead, the Brazilian walks straight forward and busts Dalby in the chops with two big punches. The two proceed to go wild with big strikes, and Bonfim connects a number of powerful low kicks to give Dalby pause. Dalby presses forward, gathering a full head of steam, and he plows Bonfim to the fence and hunts for a trip. Bonfim defends himself against the fencing, and he splits off and resets. Dalby doubles up on a jab and follows with an overhand right, and Bonfim just misses with a head kick. The Brazilian hammers the lead wheel with a kick, and he aims a few more kicks to the same target until Dalby switches stances briefly. Dalby powers forward, keeping his high-pressure game going, and he gets knocked back with a one-two and a kick. Bonfim digs a kick to the body and reaches with a left hand, and he intercepts a countering Dalby with a chopping kick. Dalby pushes forward and just misses with a head kick, and Bonfim strings three jabs together in rapid succession. Dalby attacks the lead leg, and Bonfim snatches him up and body locks him to the ground. Landing in half guard, Bonfim has over two minutes to work should he keep it horizontal. Bonfim skips over to the side, and Dalby raises one leg up high in hopes of bucking Bonfim off of him. Bonfim slowly works with elbows, drawing a tiny bit of blood with his strikes as he isolates Dalby’s right arm. Bonfim lets it go so he can move to full mount, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke by slithering one arm beneath the neck. Dalby defends against it, but Bonfim remains in dominant position despite Dalby’s movement. Bonfim elects to move to the side so he can batter Dalby with elbows, and Dalby defends most but not all of them. Bonfim opens up an additional cut on his opponent, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Round 2
Dalby opens up the second round just as aggressive as before, with his pace trying to take some of the wind out of Bonfim’s sails. Bonfim counters that with a few powerful punches, and he scoops the Danish fighter up off the ground and slams him to the mat. Dalby sits up, and Bonfim considers a guillotine choke but lets it go. When Dalby partially stands, Bonfim sucks his hips out and deposits him to the ground with a single. Dalby defends with a guillotine choke, and Bonfim welcomes this so that he can set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Dalby does not fall for the trap, and he releases the grip in time so that he does not get choked out. Bonfim does manage to claim side control in this position, until Dalby rolls all the way over and goes after a double. Bonfim latches his arms around the neck for a brabo choke setup, and he hops over to the back. Dalby deftly scrambles to get back to his feet, and he stands and pushes Bonfim to the wire. Bonfim welcomes him with an elbow, and Dalby throws back and continues plodding forward. Dalby maintains his suffocating pressure, and Bonfim shoots for a single that comes up short. Dalby comes up high with a pair of elbows, and the two start slugging it out. Dalby drives his knee on the chin a few times, and he ignores the strikes that belt him in the face so he can fire back fearlessly. Bonfim leans his back to the wall, and Dalby is on him like a cheap suit. Bonfim’s gas tank begins to fade as his body language starts to show he is struggling, while Dalby is ready and rearing to go for several more minutes. Bonfim drops to his knees for a single, and Bonfim shells up against the fencing as Dalby lays into him with knees and elbows. Bonfim lets loose with uppercuts, only for Dalby to completely no-sell them and further use his cardio and durability as a weapon.
A ferocious knee in a series from the Danish fighter smashes right into the jaw, and Bonfim collapses to the canvas. Dalby finishes the job with a number of punishing left hands, forcing Herzog to step in and wave the fight off.
“Danish Dynamite” has exploded, blowing up the massive favorite while detonating the unbeaten record of the highly touted Brazilian finisher.
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Gabriel Bonfim R2 4:33 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to grapple early and get the win. He notes Dalby is tough and could take it to a decision, which would be new for Bonfim. He likes the Bonfim brother parlay. He thinks the UFC knows what they're doing with this matchup.
Big Brady picks Gabriel Bonfim to win by first-round submission. He praises Bonfim's striking and opportunistic submission game, noting he subs opponents when they shoot for takedowns. He mentions Dalby has never been finished officially but was finished by Jesse Ronson (who popped for PEDs). He expects a club-and-sub sequence, with Bonfim knocking down Dalby and snatching a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Gabriel Bonfim, impressed by his undefeated record, 15 finishes, and versatile submission game including guillotines, rear-naked chokes, and triangles. He notes Bonfim's athleticism, explosiveness, and willingness to strike, but also acknowledges concerns about his striking defense and unproven cardio. Levi sees Dalby as a tough veteran who can turn fights into dogfights and drag Bonfim into deep water, but believes Bonfim's youth and tenacity will prevail. He is not laying the -600 chalk and plans to stay away from betting this fight, possibly poking at props.
James predicts Bonfim will run through Dalby, likely in round one. He notes that Dalby has been knocked out and submitted early by Jesse Ronson (overturned to NC) and sees a similar outcome here. He acknowledges that if Bonfim doesn't finish early, Dalby has a chance to come back in later rounds, but he believes Bonfim is a dangerous striker and opportunistic submission artist. He picks Bonfim to win, probably by submission in round one.
Bonfim is one of the best prospects, with great striking that sets up his submission game. He hurts opponents and then capitalizes on desperation takedowns to lock in chokes. Dalby is older and has faced lower-level competition recently. Bonfim will hurt Dalby on the feet, forcing a bad takedown attempt, and finish via submission inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim over Nicolas Dalby. He emphasizes Bonfim's athleticism, size, and finishing ability, predicting a first-round submission. The Guru notes Dalby needs to be perfect for three rounds to win, while Bonfim can end it quickly. He references Bonfim's dominant win over Trevin Giles and his signature guillotine choke. He predicts a first-round guillotine.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 86 of 140 | 61% | 104 of 158 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 6:36 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 57 of 88 | 64% | 70 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 24 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 18 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 48 of 69 | 69% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 86 of 140 | 61% | 41 of 84 | 36 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 43 of 91 | 36 of 41 | 7 of 8 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 57 of 88 | 64% | 34 of 58 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 78 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 21 of 44 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 17 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 14 of 26 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 17 of 27 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 10 of 14 | 71% | 5 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 48 of 69 | 69% | 25 of 42 | 23 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 38 | 24 of 27 | 4 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salikhov (-190), Dalby (+160)
Round 1
A potential all-action welterweight tilt will kick off the main card, as blood-and-guts Dalby (21-4-1, 2 NC; 5-3-1, 1 NC UFC) stands across the cage from “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (19-3, 6-2 UFC). This will be the eldest bout on the billing, as Dalby is over 38 while Salikhov just turned 39, so the clock is absolutely ticking for these two 170-pound competitors in hopes of making a run. They do not plan on touching gloves, and referee Mark Smith sits back to observe the proceedings. Dalby slings a high kick early, and Salikhov replies with a solid calf kick as if he had watched the last bout and wanted to replicate that success. Dalby goes for another head kick that is blocked, and he puts a jab in the Russian’s face. Salikhov rifles out a left hand, and he absorbs a kick on the inside of his knee. Salikhov aims a front kick to the chest, and Dalby is quick to kick low again. Salikhov scores a pair of dangerous leg kicks, and they trade punches until Dalby decides to give Salikhov a taste of his own medicine with a kick. Salikhov reaches out with a left hook, and he pushes out with a front kick. The two trade leg kicks, and Dalby ducks a Superman punch right in time. Salikhov spins suddenly with a back fist, and Dalby raises his guard and takes a clean spinning back kick right after to the chest. Dalby picks at the lead leg with a kick, and they both go after one another with heavy right hooks. Dalby aims a shin to the midsection, and he walks into a solid right hand. When Dalby tries to kick low, Salikhov stands him up with an overhand right. Both men crash together with thudding fists, and Salikhov reaches his man in a subsequent strike. “King of Kung Fu” beats Dalby to the punch, and he clips him with a left hand to stagger Dalby. Dalby gathers his thoughts and retaliates with a right hand and a huge head kick. Salikhov is damaged from the blow, and he pursues a takedown to drag Dalby to the ground to recover. The two both stand up in the clinch, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Round 2
The welterweights come together in the center of the cage, and Dalby initiates offense with a head kick that is blocked. Salikhov replies with a front kick, leading Dalby into a charge that pushes him against the cage to the wall. Salikhov turns him around, and Dalby reaches him with high knees even with his back against the fence. Salikhov breaks off, and he defends a body kick and spins with a back kick to the midsection. The two measure one another with one-twos, and Dalby ducks straight into a knee when pursuing a takedown. Salikhov keeps his back to the wire as he stays upright, and Dalby lifts up a high knee. This is the worst thing Dalby can do, as Salikhov grabs hold of it, turns Dalby around and deposits him to the canvas. Dalby calmly works his way back up with the fence behind him, and he spams short knees to the side. Dalby wrenches the Dagestan native to the mat, and he moves straight into mount. Salikhov turns to the side and ends up giving up his back, and Dalby gets a hook in and drapes his arm around the chest. Salikhov turns enough to free himself from a hook, and Dalby traps Salikhov’s left leg while turning the torso. Dalby nearly has a twister set up, and he threatens with a choke that transitions from a rear-naked choke to an arm-triangle choke. This is a means to an end, as Dalby steps over into half guard and looks for ground-and-pound. Salikhov explodes back to his feet with a minute to go, and Dalby presses on the Russian when standing up and knees him a few times. Dalby fishes for a trip with his foot, and Salikhov breaks away with an elbow. Dalby chases after him with a head kick, and Salikhov replies with one and falls to his knees. The round ends as Dalby jumps on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Dalby picks up where he left off, with a head kick attempt. Salikhov backs away and holds his arms high to block it and one that follows, but he cannot stop a few punches from Dalby. The Danish fighter attempts a third head kick, and he races forward to either change levels or settle for a clinch. Salikhov looks to muscle out, but Dalby turns him back to the wall, as Salikhov appears frustrated. Dalby grinds and works the body with several active knees, until Salikhov breaks away and gets to striking range. Dalby rushes after him and spears the Russian with a right hand and looks for a head kick. Salikhov is not fazed by the blows, and he jams his foot into Dalby’s midsection. Dalby punches his way into a clinch, but he cannot hold Salikhov there for long. Salikhov escapes, and he rushes backwards. Dalby practically sprints at him, tossing up a head kick and a right hand before engaging in the tie-up once more. When Salikhov drags them away from the cage, Dalby elbows him several times before kneeing him and pushing him to the fencing. Dalby slips a punch over the top and does not lose his clinch grip, and they both give one another mean elbows on the chin. Dalby slings a high kick, and he re-engages Salikhov before dragging him to his knee. Dalby jumps into mount with a little under 15 seconds left, and he beats down on Salikhov with hammerfists and an elbow until the final horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Muslim Salikhov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo has a slight lean to Muslim Salikhov because he has better wrestling, but he calls this a 50/50 fight. Both are older strikers with traditional martial arts backgrounds. Dalby's 65% takedown defense could be a factor. Angelo is waiting for props to drop and is not betting the moneyline.
Big Brady picks Nicolas Dalby to win by decision, but he is low on both fighters. He criticizes Salikhov for low volume, poor cardio, and being 39 years old. Dalby is slightly younger and showed high volume in his last fight against Warlley Alves, landing 119 strikes. Brady thinks Dalby can push Salikhov against the cage, tire him out, and be more active. He notes Dalby has never been knocked out and is very tough. However, he admits he is very low on both guys and this is not an exciting fight.
Cody has a tough time reading this fight. He notes Salikhov is a low-volume counter puncher with heavy power, and that opponents often freeze up against him. He thinks Dalby's wrestling is not good enough to take Salikhov down, and if Dalby tries to out-volume him, he risks walking into a big shot. Cody leans Salikhov to land the better strikes and possibly get a knockout, but he doesn't want much exposure. He likes Salikhov by knockout at +240.
Connor picks Dalby, citing his grinding approach as effective against a fighter like Salikhov who needs space. He notes that Salikhov has not been tested by wrestling since Alex Garcia, and Dalby's physicality should be a problem. Connor sees Dalby muscling his way to a win.
Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, citing a significant firepower advantage and Salikhov's ability to land damaging shots. He notes Dalby's history of being dropped and his lower volume, while Salikhov can knock him out. He gives the cardio edge to Dalby but thinks Salikhov's power will be decisive. He has a good betting history with Salikhov and plans to bet him as long as the line stays under -200.
Dalby has a speed and athleticism advantage, a good output game, and decent takedowns to mix in. Salikhov is one-dimensional with a kung fu striking style and has shown durability issues. Dalby's awkward striking and volume should outwork Salikhov over three rounds. However, Dalby's durability is a slight concern. Dalby wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Dalby's pitter-patter striking won't work against Salikhov, who hits hard. He points out that Dalby has been knocked down by lesser fighters and that Salikhov's power is a real threat. Paul sees Salikhov by knockout at +240 as a potential small bet, though he wishes the price were higher.
The MMA Guru picks Muslim Salikhov over Nicolas Dalby, stating Salikhov is simply better. He notes Dalby lacks finishing potential, submission ability, and great grappling, while Salikhov has momentum and can finish or win a decision. He mentions Dalby was KO'd by Jesse Ronson, and expects Salikhov to catch Dalby with a right hand.
Zane picks Dalby because he believes Dalby's grinding pressure will overwhelm Salikhov. He notes that Salikhov is a sniper who needs time and space, and that Dalby's high output and physicality will not allow that. Zane acknowledges Salikhov could crack Dalby early, but favors Dalby's consistency.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 66 of 144 | 45% | 75 of 153 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 119 of 248 | 47% | 167 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 52 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 53 of 101 | 52% | 64 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 66 of 144 | 45% | 45 of 117 | 7 of 12 | 14 of 15 | 62 of 138 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 119 of 248 | 47% | 75 of 195 | 35 of 41 | 9 of 12 | 86 of 212 | 32 of 35 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 35 | 51% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 35 of 74 | 47% | 19 of 51 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 58 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 37 | 48% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 31 of 73 | 42% | 22 of 62 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 67 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 30 of 72 | 41% | 27 of 66 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 53 of 101 | 52% | 34 of 82 | 17 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 87 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alves (-125), Dalby (+105)
Round 1
Welterweights take center stage as the proceedings keep moving, with TUF Brazil 3 middleweight winner Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) repping his home country against Denmark’s Dalby (20-4-1, 2 NC; 4-3-1, 1 NC UFC). The third man inside the Octagon for this interesting stylistic clash will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks them in as Alves tries to offer a glove touch but is not accepted. Alves absorbs a low kick and immediately kicks into high gear, swarming the Dane with punches and a couple low kicks back. Dalby strikes back, and Alves loses his balance from the middle of the cage to the wall, but he is not hurt. When Dalby reaches him, Alves grabs him and ties him up, and he uses tight chest pressure to tire his man out. Dalby spins him around and grinds him back, with short knees to the thigh and body as the crowd grows restless less than two minutes in. Alves boxes the ears and jumps up to rip a knee to the body, and this allows him to get enough space to separate. The Brazilian strikes with a kick to the body, and he kicks low twice in the midst of a Dalby combination. Dalby returns fire with a low kick, and he wipes his eye as he appears to have been swiped with a finger. Alves offers an apologetic hand instead of lashing out, and Dalby motions that he is fine and they get back to it. They trade heavy kicks, and Alves’ landing to the body connect with audible thuds. A clack of heads opens a cut on the corner of Dalby’s right eye, but he pays it no mind as he pushes off and walks Alves down. They both throw hands at the same time, leading to a clinch. Dalby sprints in the clinch to push Alves all the way across the cage into the wall, and the crowd lets him have it. Dalby squeezes his foe on the cage wall, even landing a short foot stomp, as Alves smacks him upside the head with short punches. Dalby breaks off with an elbow that surprises Alves, and Alves leaps forward only to get countered with a left hook. Dalby scores a one-two and a few punches, and the horn echoes through the building.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
Alves lands first with a front kick, and he kicks Dalby’s lead leg to follow it. Dalby replies with his own low kick, and they close the distance towards one another and bump heads again. Alves rushes in to throw bombs, and he uses his forward momentum to change levels and drop down for a single-leg takedown. When they awkwardly hit the mat in the scramble, Dalby falls to his back in search of a triangle choke. The Brazilian shucks it off and claims top position, and he holds on from on top without landing much of note. As they stay pinned to the floor, Dalby explodes out of nowhere to return to his feet, and a potential Alves guillotine choke setup is not there to be had. Dalby works Alves over with an elbow, body shots, knees and a few punches, before tying him up against and pushing him to the wire. As Dalby grinds, the crowd whistles and boos the control from the Danish fighter. Alves breaks away, and he lumbers forward to wrap a right hand around the guard. Dalby springs away and kicks low, he connects with a solid elbow on the jaw. They smash one another in the face with right hands, and neither man appears to be the worse for wear after the fierce exchange. Dalby kicks high a few times, and Alves loads up on a right hand and spins with a back fist that careens off the top of the head. Alves blocks a right hand but cannot defend against a side kick to the breadbasket, although he slips an overhand right to drill Dalby with a right hand. Dalby is loose and light on his feet, stringing together combinations of unusual strikes one after the other, like a body shot to a head kick. Dalby slides out of the way from oncoming fire, and Alves pushes his fingers out and rakes the right eye of Alves. Dean recognizes this immediately and pauses the fight, and Dalby takes 30 seconds to recover. With seconds to spare, Alves tries one head kick, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Between rounds, Alves blows his nose, and his eye swells up to a small degree because of it. The welterweights meet in the middle and throw hands to start off Round 3, and Alves begins with a barrage of power punches. Dalby responds but gets knocked back, and Alves’ power is the different maker. Alves splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dalby into the wall and his forward pace leads them to clinch up. Dalby manages to escape and strings a few punches to the body and head together. Alves blocks a head kick in time, and he slips a strike to score a right hand. Alves surges forward to connect with a few more punches, and a takedown try from the Brazilian is stifled. As they stay stuck against one another in the clinch, Dean asks them to work a few times. Dalby hands on for as long as he can, with short knees to the body, until he chooses to break away. Alves walks him down and blasts him in the face with a right hand, and Dalby’s knees wobble but do not buckle. Alves lets loose with a low kick, and a huge right hook stuns Dalby for a moment. Alves checks a low kick so that he can unload with a right hand, and he jumps with a spinning back fist that grazes on the top of the forehead. Dalby slows Alves momentarily with a short salvo, but Alves fires back hard to get Dalby’s attention. Dalby meanders back to the cage, and Alves leaps at him with a flying knee that makes him collide with the wall instead of his opponent. Dalby stays on his bike, circling around to strike and sneak in a takedown. Alves springs right back up, and they tie up. With seconds to go, Alves pushes off, and they both score punches until the fight concludes. It seems like this will be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Alves)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Warlley Alves via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Alves but with low trust due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has two versions: one that puts on masterclass performances and one that fades after the first round. He thinks Alves has the grappling upside and danger to finish, while Dalby is tough with good cardio but not dangerous. He expects the fight to leave round one and Alves to win a decision, but he's staying away from betting.
Cody picks Warlley Alves but with low confidence, noting his tendency to gas and be a front-runner. He says Alves has power and a nasty guillotine, but his cardio is suspect. He thinks Alves will win if he comes out strong, but could lose if he gasses. He mentions Alves' history of losing as a favorite. He says the under 2.5 rounds is the play.
Connor picks Dalby, noting he is a consistent, trusty fighter who can grind out a win. He expects Alves to win round 1 but Dalby to take over in round 3. He admits he wants Dalby to win and acknowledges Alves could do early damage.
Paul picks Warlley Alves but with hesitation, noting his cardio issues and tendency to lose as a favorite. He says Alves has the skills to win but is unreliable. He thinks Alves will win if he shows up, but wouldn't bet much on him. He mentions Alves' guillotine and power. He says the under is a good play.
The Guru is hesitant but picks Dalby, noting it's a close fight with even odds. He believes if there's no first-round KO from Alves, Dalby will win as the fight goes on. Alves was KO'd by Jeremiah Wells and has been inactive in 2022. The Guru compares Dalby's style to James Krause, with pitter-patter shots and movement, and thinks Dalby can survive the early danger and make Alves gas out.
Zane picks Alves hesitantly, expecting him to do too much damage early. He notes Alves is explosive and powerful, but fades and has mental blocks. Dalby is a workhorse but may be losing physical steps at 38. Zane expects Alves to win round 1 and possibly finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 46 of 59 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 7:17 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 45 of 94 | 47% | 61 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 4:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 25 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 10 of 14 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:58 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 21 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 45 of 94 | 47% | 32 of 78 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 59 | 16 of 21 | 8 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 6 of 10 | 60% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 31 of 57 | 54% | 21 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 34 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 14 of 36 | 38% | 11 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dalby (-250), Silva (+210)
Round 1
The venue isn’t completely full for the first prelim of the card in London, but those who are present seem to be fully engaged. Lukasz Bosacki will be the third man in the cage for this welterweight bout. Silva takes the center of the cage and shoots for a takedown, driving Dalby into the fence. Silva clings to a single leg, but Dalby hops around and maintains his balance while fighting his opponent’s hands. “Hannibal” finally yanks his foe down and passes quickly to full mount. Silva stays heavy on top as Dalby attempts to buck him off. Thus far, those efforts are unsuccessful. Dalby stays active and recaptures half guard, but Silva is still in control. Dalby posts in hopes of standing, but Silva grabs the arm and plants the Dane on his back with time winding down. Silva ends the round on top with mild ground-and-pound, much to the displeasure of the crowd. 10-9 Silva.
Round 2
Silva steps in with a front kick and Dalby responds with a leg kick that makes the Brazilian wobble. Silva has seen enough as he shoots and takes Dalby down near the fence. Dalby gives up his back as he stands, and “Hannibal” secures a body triangle and drags him right back down. Silva looks for openings to slide his arm underneath Dalby’s chin. Dalby resists and is able to turn out of the predicament, setting up in Silva’s full guard. Dalby creates some space and drops a heavy elbow that draws a roar from the London throng. Silva works his way up and eats a right hand. Dalby sprawls on a shot and lands a knee to the head. Silva looks tired as he circles away, but the Brazilian resets and pushes Dalby into the fence. Dalby defends and lands another solid right hand. Dalby is gaining momentum, and he tees off with a head kick and more punches. Dalby shoves Silva into the fence and lands a hard series of knees to the midsection. The tide has turned completely at this point, and Dalby keeps the knees going. Silva is exhausted, holding his hands low. Silva ties up Dalby in the waning seconds and absorbs a knee and a left hook before the horn. 10-9 Dalby.
Round 3
Dalby just misses on a head kick, but a low kick finds the mark. Silva shoots and Dalby defends, shoving “Hannibal” down to the mat with ease. Dalby follows his man down to the mat and sets up in his foe’s full guard. Dalby works to create space for elbows while Silva controls his wrists. Another short elbow lands on the chest of Silva. Dalby drops an elbow and grinds his forearm into Silva’s neck. Silva appears to just be holding on for dear life. One of those elbows appears to have opened a cut on Silva, and blood is dripping on the Octagon floor. Dalby frees himself from guard and stands up. Silva is slow to rise and Dalby lands a glancing head kick. Silva steps in with an elbow, but his offense is mostly slow and fatigued. A left hand lands clean for Dalby. Silva executes a beautiful level change behind a winging hook and gets Dalby down. Dalby attempts an omoplata sweep, and at the very least, it stops Silva from advancing position. After a brief stalemate, a scramble ensues and Silva lands mild ground-and-pound. Dalby is able to scramble back up just before the horn. 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby).
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Claudio Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Dalby despite acknowledging it's a tough fight with both guys having long layoffs. He notes Dalby is the better striker with real power but is hittable, while Silva has relentless grappling pressure but only 25% takedown accuracy and cardio issues. He believes Dalby's toughness will keep him alive and Silva will gas, allowing Dalby to win.
Big Brady picks Nicolas Dalby to win by decision. He notes that Cláudio Silva is 39, has a poor gas tank, and is essentially 'round one submission or bust.' Dalby is the much better striker and should survive the first round, then pick Silva apart. He also mentions Silva has never been finished and Dalby has never been submitted, so a decision is likely.
Cody picks Nicolas Dalby, calling Silva a bum. He notes Silva has poor cardio, low volume, and is 39 years old. Cody thinks Dalby's cardio and pressure will be too much. He suggests live betting Dalby if he loses the first round but doesn't get submitted. Cody is confident Dalby wins.
Daniel Levi picks Nicolas Dalby, arguing that Cláudio Silva is past his prime at 41-42 years old. He acknowledges Silva's dangerous grappling and striking power in his prime, but believes Dalby's forward pressure and high kicks will be too much. Levi notes that Dalby has a history of surviving early trouble and coming back, and has been competitive with tough opponents.
Dalby should win if he manages his gas tank and keeps the fight standing, but I don't trust him at -250. Silva is a dangerous submission threat and Dalby has a history of sketchy wins. I'm picking Dalby to win but he'll make you sweat for your money.
Paul picks Cláudio Silva by submission at +500, calling it a dogger pass. He doesn't love Silva's stand-up but thinks if Silva can get the fight to the ground, he has a chance. Paul notes Dalby has been submitted before. He is hesitant and will watch weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Nicolas Dalby to win by unanimous decision. He criticizes Cláudio Silva's recent performances, noting Silva looks like a man without testosterone and has shown no skill since 2019. Dalby is a physical athlete who rarely gets finished and can push the pace. The Guru expects Dalby to dominate positional control and win on the feet.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Rinat, citing his phenomenal non-stop wrestling and power. He notes Rinat gassed in his last fight after chasing the finish, but still dominated the first two rounds. He thinks Dalby is hitable and will be taken down repeatedly. He acknowledges Dalby's win over Bonfim was more about Bonfim's cardio than Dalby's skill. He plans to spend $9,200 on Rinat in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov confidently, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Dalby's 60% takedown defense and that fighters like Claudia Silva and Tim Means have controlled him. Brady expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision due to Dalby's toughness, but a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Fakhretdinov's fantasy score under 94.5.
Cody picks Fakhretdinov but is hesitant due to the price and Dalby's comeback ability. He notes Fakhretdinov's wrestling and power, but also his cardio issues and Dalby's experience and durability. He expects Fakhretdinov to win early but warns of a potential fade.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win a decision, expecting him to take the first two rounds with wrestling pressure. He notes Dalby's third-round resurgence but believes Fakhretdinov's takedowns and grinding style will secure a win. He acknowledges Dalby's cardio and finishing ability but sees Fakhretdinov controlling the fight early.
Jacob picks Rinat but does not trust him due to his mentality—he was happy with a draw after nearly getting finished. Jacob worries Rinat will try to knock Dalby out instead of wrestling, which could lead to trouble. He compares Rinat's attitude to Loopy Godinez, saying it's not a killer mentality. However, he acknowledges Rinat should win if he sticks to wrestling.
JP is confident in Fakhretdinov, citing his 22-2 record with 11 KOs and 7 subs, and notes Dalby's tendency to go to decision (12-4 in decisions). He expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision. Brevan agrees, highlighting Fakhretdinov's strong wrestling base and ability to control Dalby on the ground. He suggests a prop bet on Fakhretdinov by decision if the odds are plus money. Both see Fakhretdinov as the clear winner.
Paul does not make a winner pick but suggests Dalby as a live bet. He notes Fakhretdinov will likely get takedowns but may gas, and Dalby's ability to get up and outwork him. He prefers to watch and potentially bet Dalby live.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Nicolas Dalby, after initially considering Dalby. He rewatched Dalby's fight with Gabriel Bonfim and was less impressed, noting that Dalby was held down for significant periods. He believes Fakhretdinov's patient top game will be effective, as he doesn't chase submissions and is content to hold opponents down. He contrasts this with Bonfim's scrambling, which allowed Dalby to escape. He also notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle as impressive.
Rinat went out banging and crumbled Andreas in two min