UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026 · Featherweight · Completed
Age 38
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Patrício Pitbull
2.68 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.23 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.49 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Aaron Pico
3.88 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.39 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
8.96 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Patrício Pitbull
Moneyline
BetWay +275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
Kalshi +1600
Decision
BetRivers +750
Aaron Pico
KO/TKO
BetRivers +205
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
FanDuel +220
Patrício Pitbull - Fight History
LOSS vs Aaron Pico
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrício Pitbull 0 49 of 88 55% 49 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 100 of 181 55% 104 of 185 6 of 13 46% 0 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 22 of 56 39% 25 of 59 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:47
2 Patrício Pitbull 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 49 of 77 63% 49 of 77 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:41
3 Patrício Pitbull 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrício Pitbull 49 of 88 55% 28 of 60 14 of 19 7 of 9 37 of 76 12 of 12 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 100 of 181 55% 79 of 156 11 of 15 10 of 10 90 of 166 6 of 9 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrício Pitbull 17 of 28 60% 12 of 20 3 of 5 2 of 3 15 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 22 of 56 39% 17 of 48 1 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 51 1 of 4 0 of 1
2 Patrício Pitbull 19 of 33 57% 11 of 25 4 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 49 of 77 63% 40 of 67 5 of 6 4 of 4 43 of 70 2 of 2 4 of 5
3 Patrício Pitbull 13 of 27 48% 5 of 15 7 of 10 1 of 2 6 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 29 of 48 60% 22 of 41 5 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo confidently picks Aaron Pico, calling him bigger, faster, stronger, and better everywhere. He acknowledges Pitbull's legendary career but notes his age (39) and believes Pico should dominate. He suggests Pico should be a much heavier favorite, calling minus 300 good value.

"Aaron Pico is the pick. Minus 300, I would hop on that now. He should genuinely be minus five, six, seven, minus 800."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Big Brady is impressed with Pico's elite wrestling, power, and body work, but notes his durability issues (all losses inside the distance). He thinks Pitbull is dangerous but aging (38) and has shown vulnerability. He predicts Pico will get takedowns and ground-and-pound for a second-round TKO, though he dislikes the -300 price.

second round TKO
"I like Pico here to get it done... I'm going to go Pico to bounce back here and get a second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Cody passes on this fight, unable to trust Pico's chin at such a high price. He acknowledges the logic but cannot bring himself to bet on Pico.

"I don't think I could click it. I don't think I could click it because I would just hate myself too much if he gets stiffed on like an overhand right in round one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor picks Patrício based on his one-shot power and Pico's defensive vulnerability. He notes that Pico gets blindsided when hit and has no defensive awareness, while Patrício still has a quick, powerful shot. However, he acknowledges Patrício's decline in choosiness and hesitancy, which could give Pico early leash.

Odds too wide; Patrício opened +180 now +270, Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to pick Patricio, but I, yeah, I cannot help, but acknowledge that the man does not have long left in the sport and Aaron Pico is super dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel acknowledges Pico's chin issues but thinks his skill advantage is significant. He picks Pico but warns that Pitbull is a live dog if Pico is gunshy.

"I think as a pure pick, I'm going to go Pico. But from a betting perspective, this is a dog or pass situation."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel Vreeland picks Aaron Pico, citing Pico's youth, size, and physicality. He believes Pico will crowd Pitbull and use his grappling to neutralize Pitbull's distance management. He acknowledges Pitbull's power and counter-striking but thinks age and weight cuts have slowed him down.

"I think Pico wins this and I think putting money on Pitbull is a perfectly fine situation at plus 265 given the situation, but I still think he loses."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

James picks Aaron Pico, expecting him to be more reserved after his knockout loss and use his superior boxing and wrestling to dominate Pitbull. He predicts a KO victory.

"I'm definitely picking Aaron here. I'm actually picking him via KO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Pico should use his wrestling to neutralize Pitbull's power. Pitbull is dangerous but low output and older. Pico's wrestling is elite and he can grind out a decision. However, the line is too steep at -315; value is not there. Pico needs to be calm and avoid brawling. A wrestle-heavy approach should secure the win.

Pico wins by decision
"I'm looking for a wrestle heavy approach from Pico. ... I think Pico wins. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Paul picks Pico despite the high price, believing Pico's wrestling and athleticism will be key. He thinks Pico will use takedowns to neutralize Pitbull's power and grind out a decision.

"I'm taking Pico. I got Pico. It's the minus 300 Paul. Like, how much faith do you have in a guy that's constantly been a letdown?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

The MMA Guru picks Patrício Pitbull over Aaron Pico, despite Pico being a -300 favorite. He questions Pico's chin and notes he has been KO'd multiple times. He believes Pitbull is crafty and experienced, and can catch Pico late in the second or third round by TKO. He thinks the odds should be evens.

Odds comment: Pico at -300 is crazy, should be evens.
"I'm thinking Pitbull because I just seriously can't trust Aaron Pico to get hit flash on the chin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

Zane picks Pico despite his defensive flaws, citing Patrício's recent fragility and choosiness. He notes that Pico is an elite athlete who can roll downhill and that Patrício has been looking more fragile, getting iced early by Chihiro Suzuki. However, he admits Pico's defensive issues are stark and he doesn't feel good about the pick.

Odds too wide; Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to take Pico here. I hate to do it, but I think you, you love to do it."
CANCEL vs Losene Keita
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Angelo picks Losene Keita but advises against betting on him. He acknowledges Keita's speed, power, and takedown defense, but warns that Pitbull is a crafty veteran who could pull off an upset. He notes that many prospects have lost to old vets. He believes Keita's speed will be a problem for Pitbull's takedown entries, but calls it a risky fight and recommends leaving it alone.

do not bet
"I'm going to pick Ca here. ... I would not bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Big Brady picks Losene Keita, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, and low volume. He notes Keita is 11 years younger, pressures forward, and has power. He believes Pitbull has been hurt in his last five fights and will get knocked out here. He predicts a first-round KO.

Keita by knockout, round 1
"I think Kate knocks out Pitull here. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Connor picks Keita, citing his freakish speed and power, similar to Chihiro Suzuki who beat Pitbull. He notes that Pitbull's cautious, counter-punching style may not keep up with Keita's athleticism, and that Keita is a proven winner. He acknowledges that Pitbull could outmaneuver him, but sees Keita's physical advantages as decisive.

"I think I'm gonna pick Kate. Uh, I don't want to, I mean, I like you to, he's a fun fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The host views Keita as a highly touted prospect who is very fast, powerful, and only 27 years old. He thinks Keita does everything Pitbull does but much better and at a younger age, allowing him to dictate the pace and eventually find a big knockout.

KO
"I think he does everything that Pit Bull does, but much better and at a younger age. And I think that will allow Ka to really dictate the pace of this fight and eventually find that big knockout to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

The Guru picks Patrício Pitbull, despite concerns about age and size. He criticizes Keita's limited offense (straight right hands and rear kicks) and believes Pitbull's experience and jiu-jitsu will be key. He predicts Pitbull will secure takedowns, take the back, and win by submission (rear-naked choke) or decision. He also notes Keita's UFC debut jitters.

over 1.5 takedowns for Pitbull (from PrizePicks segment)
"I'm going to go with Patricio Pitbull. He just beat Dan Eay. I thought he won the fight very clear."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Zane picks Pitbull, believing his experience and technical savvy can outfox the raw but fast Keita. He notes that Keita leaves openings and is susceptible to takedowns, and that Pitbull can neutralize him. However, he acknowledges that Keita's speed and power make it a trap fight, and that Pitbull may gas or get caught.

"Who I'm going to pick. Cause, but you know, I laid it out. It might all go disastrously wrong in just one moment."
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrício Pitbull 0 47 of 124 37% 59 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dan Ige 0 55 of 97 56% 71 of 114 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrício Pitbull 0 6 of 28 21% 10 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:03
2 Patrício Pitbull 0 19 of 51 37% 19 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 37 of 58 63% 47 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
3 Patrício Pitbull 0 22 of 45 48% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dan Ige 0 11 of 26 42% 17 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrício Pitbull 47 of 124 37% 24 of 93 15 of 23 8 of 8 38 of 109 3 of 5 6 of 10
Dan Ige 55 of 97 56% 42 of 82 9 of 10 4 of 5 42 of 82 9 of 11 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrício Pitbull 6 of 28 21% 1 of 21 2 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 7 of 13 53% 2 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Patrício Pitbull 19 of 51 37% 10 of 38 6 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 37 of 58 63% 30 of 50 6 of 6 1 of 2 25 of 45 8 of 9 4 of 4
3 Patrício Pitbull 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 7 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 34 1 of 1 6 of 10
Dan Ige 11 of 26 42% 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo picks Dan Ige, calling him a tough, durable journeyman who has fought top competition in the UFC. He is wary of the Patricio Pitbull trap after Pitbull's loss in his UFC debut. He thinks Ige's will and determination will carry him, but he won't bet on it.

Says he'll stay away from this one betting wise.
"Dan Eay is going to be the pick just off of raw will and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, low volume, and lack of wrestling. He notes Ige has advantages in size, reach, volume, durability, and competition level. He predicts Ige wins by knockout, as Pitbull has been dropped recently.

Ige by knockout
"I got to go Eay here. ... I think Eay could potentially even knock out Pitle."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor believes Pitbull's patient counterpunching style is a great matchup against Ige, who tends to rush in and make mistakes. He notes that Ige lacks a range game and often gets hit while coming forward, which plays into Pitbull's strengths. He sees Pitbull capitalizing on Ige's aggression with counters and takedowns.

"This is a forgiving bounce back that will still make Pitbull look elite."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The host believes Ige's volume output and ability to manage distance and pace will be key to shutting down Pitbull's power striking. He expects Ige to have a competitive first round but then chip away and win on the scorecards.

"Look for Eay to have a competitive first round, but really start chipping away at pitbull and showcasing that he's winning and inching out each round here and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige over Patrício Pitbull, predicting a KO win. He criticizes Pitbull as a jack-of-all-trades but master of none, lacking dominant grappling or KO power. Ige is described as a short, stocky power puncher who can crack on the inside, similar to Michael Chandler who knocked out Pitbull. The Guru also references Pitbull's poor performance against Yair Rodriguez and believes Ige will put him away. He notes that Ige is a slight favorite and should be a bigger favorite.

Ige is a slight favorite and should be bigger (odds comment)
"I'm going with Dan Eay over Patriceio Pitbull."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Zane agrees, stating that Ige's style of rushing forward with flurries is exactly what Pitbull thrives against. He notes that Ige's lack of a range game and tendency to get hit while pressing forward will allow Pitbull to land counters and control the fight. He sees this as a much better matchup for Pitbull than the Yair Rodriguez fight.

"Dan Ige may in fact be the best matchup for him in the division."
LOSS vs Yair Rodríguez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 1 70 of 122 57% 97 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 50 34% 23 of 60 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 11 of 21 52% 26 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patrício Pitbull 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 21 of 45 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Patrício Pitbull 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
3 Yair Rodríguez 1 38 of 56 67% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Patrício Pitbull 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 70 of 122 57% 38 of 82 18 of 23 14 of 17 43 of 89 2 of 2 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 17 of 50 34% 8 of 38 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 11 of 21 52% 3 of 10 4 of 5 4 of 6 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 4 of 10 40% 0 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 21 of 45 46% 8 of 28 6 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 8 of 26 30% 5 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yair Rodríguez 38 of 56 67% 27 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.

"Yaya Rodriguez just schooled Patricio Pitu and you know on tape it was there but sometimes you hold out hope that these legends are going to have you know they're going to shine bright in a big moment like that …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.

He predicts Pitbull wins inside the distance, possibly via submission or ground and pound.
"I'm predicting Patricio Pitbull to get the win on Yay Rodriguez. And I'm actually predicting him to get the win inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
Aaron Pico - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrício Pitbull 0 49 of 88 55% 49 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 100 of 181 55% 104 of 185 6 of 13 46% 0 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 22 of 56 39% 25 of 59 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:47
2 Patrício Pitbull 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 49 of 77 63% 49 of 77 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:41
3 Patrício Pitbull 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrício Pitbull 49 of 88 55% 28 of 60 14 of 19 7 of 9 37 of 76 12 of 12 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 100 of 181 55% 79 of 156 11 of 15 10 of 10 90 of 166 6 of 9 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrício Pitbull 17 of 28 60% 12 of 20 3 of 5 2 of 3 15 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 22 of 56 39% 17 of 48 1 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 51 1 of 4 0 of 1
2 Patrício Pitbull 19 of 33 57% 11 of 25 4 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 49 of 77 63% 40 of 67 5 of 6 4 of 4 43 of 70 2 of 2 4 of 5
3 Patrício Pitbull 13 of 27 48% 5 of 15 7 of 10 1 of 2 6 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 29 of 48 60% 22 of 41 5 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo confidently picks Aaron Pico, calling him bigger, faster, stronger, and better everywhere. He acknowledges Pitbull's legendary career but notes his age (39) and believes Pico should dominate. He suggests Pico should be a much heavier favorite, calling minus 300 good value.

"Aaron Pico is the pick. Minus 300, I would hop on that now. He should genuinely be minus five, six, seven, minus 800."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Big Brady is impressed with Pico's elite wrestling, power, and body work, but notes his durability issues (all losses inside the distance). He thinks Pitbull is dangerous but aging (38) and has shown vulnerability. He predicts Pico will get takedowns and ground-and-pound for a second-round TKO, though he dislikes the -300 price.

second round TKO
"I like Pico here to get it done... I'm going to go Pico to bounce back here and get a second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Cody passes on this fight, unable to trust Pico's chin at such a high price. He acknowledges the logic but cannot bring himself to bet on Pico.

"I don't think I could click it. I don't think I could click it because I would just hate myself too much if he gets stiffed on like an overhand right in round one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor picks Patrício based on his one-shot power and Pico's defensive vulnerability. He notes that Pico gets blindsided when hit and has no defensive awareness, while Patrício still has a quick, powerful shot. However, he acknowledges Patrício's decline in choosiness and hesitancy, which could give Pico early leash.

Odds too wide; Patrício opened +180 now +270, Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to pick Patricio, but I, yeah, I cannot help, but acknowledge that the man does not have long left in the sport and Aaron Pico is super dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel Vreeland picks Aaron Pico, citing Pico's youth, size, and physicality. He believes Pico will crowd Pitbull and use his grappling to neutralize Pitbull's distance management. He acknowledges Pitbull's power and counter-striking but thinks age and weight cuts have slowed him down.

"I think Pico wins this and I think putting money on Pitbull is a perfectly fine situation at plus 265 given the situation, but I still think he loses."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel acknowledges Pico's chin issues but thinks his skill advantage is significant. He picks Pico but warns that Pitbull is a live dog if Pico is gunshy.

"I think as a pure pick, I'm going to go Pico. But from a betting perspective, this is a dog or pass situation."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

James picks Aaron Pico, expecting him to be more reserved after his knockout loss and use his superior boxing and wrestling to dominate Pitbull. He predicts a KO victory.

"I'm definitely picking Aaron here. I'm actually picking him via KO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Pico should use his wrestling to neutralize Pitbull's power. Pitbull is dangerous but low output and older. Pico's wrestling is elite and he can grind out a decision. However, the line is too steep at -315; value is not there. Pico needs to be calm and avoid brawling. A wrestle-heavy approach should secure the win.

Pico wins by decision
"I'm looking for a wrestle heavy approach from Pico. ... I think Pico wins. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Paul picks Pico despite the high price, believing Pico's wrestling and athleticism will be key. He thinks Pico will use takedowns to neutralize Pitbull's power and grind out a decision.

"I'm taking Pico. I got Pico. It's the minus 300 Paul. Like, how much faith do you have in a guy that's constantly been a letdown?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

The MMA Guru picks Patrício Pitbull over Aaron Pico, despite Pico being a -300 favorite. He questions Pico's chin and notes he has been KO'd multiple times. He believes Pitbull is crafty and experienced, and can catch Pico late in the second or third round by TKO. He thinks the odds should be evens.

Odds comment: Pico at -300 is crazy, should be evens.
"I'm thinking Pitbull because I just seriously can't trust Aaron Pico to get hit flash on the chin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

Zane picks Pico despite his defensive flaws, citing Patrício's recent fragility and choosiness. He notes that Pico is an elite athlete who can roll downhill and that Patrício has been looking more fragile, getting iced early by Chihiro Suzuki. However, he admits Pico's defensive issues are stark and he doesn't feel good about the pick.

Odds too wide; Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to take Pico here. I hate to do it, but I think you, you love to do it."
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
KO R1 3:21 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo highlights Pico's wrestling and boxing credentials, believing his wrestling will be too much for Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's technical striking but thinks Pico is more well-rounded and determined now. He compares Pico's potential impact to Kayla Harrison's debut.

"I do think Pico's wrestling is just going to be too much here. Pico also has very good striking."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He is impressed by Aaron Pico's power and wrestling but questions his competition level. He notes Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. He worries about Murphy's takedown defense but thinks his get-up game is good. He sees this as a 'prove it' spot for Pico and favors Murphy's experience.

"I'm actually going to take Murphy here. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Murphy is a massive step up in competition for Pico, who has never faced an athlete of Murphy's size, speed, and durability. He notes that Murphy is battle-tested against UFC featherweights and has never lost to a higher level of competition, while Pico's wins are against older or less skilled opponents. Connor believes Murphy's durability and problem-solving skills will allow him to weather Pico's early wrestling and take over as the fight progresses, potentially finishing him.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is battle tested against UFC featherweights... Pico is going to get his ass down quick, probably, but it is yet to be an actual fight losing weakness."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

The host believes Pico will remind everyone he is a high-level prospect and deserving of a top-10 ranking. He thinks Murphy taking the fight on short notice is a disadvantage, and expects Pico to control the fight both on the feet and on the ground, grinding out a decision win.

"I believe Pico will remind people that he is still a very highlevel prospect and more than deserving to be in the top 10 of the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico, citing Murphy's superior technical skills, footwork, and fight IQ. He believes Pico's power and wrestling are threats, but Murphy's counter-grappling and ability to avoid big shots will be key. The Guru notes that Pico has been knocked out before and that Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with experience against dangerous opponents. He also mentions that the betting odds favoring Pico are off, making Murphy a value pick.

Underdog money on Murphy is crazy; could see a finish for Murphy (TKO or decision)
"I'm taking Lone Murphy. I think Lone Murphy beats Aaron Pico. Stylewise, I completely understand why Aaron Pico is problematic to Luron Murphy. He is a tricky style for Lurone Murphy."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy, arguing that Pico has never faced an athlete of Murphy's caliber and that Murphy's durability and resourcefulness will be key. He notes that Murphy has poor takedown defense but has never lost a fight due to it, as he figures out opponents as the fight goes on. Zane believes Pico's wrestling is violence-focused and that Murphy will get chances to get back up and land a fight-ending shot, as Pico has been finished before.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is just a physical presence like Pico has literally never faced... I kind of think Murphy will finish him."
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo confidently picks Aaron Pico, calling him bigger, faster, stronger, and better everywhere. He acknowledges Pitbull's legendary career but notes his age (39) and believes Pico should dominate. He suggests Pico should be a much heavier favorite, calling minus 300 good value.

"Aaron Pico is the pick. Minus 300, I would hop on that now. He should genuinely be minus five, six, seven, minus 800."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Big Brady is impressed with Pico's elite wrestling, power, and body work, but notes his durability issues (all losses inside the distance). He thinks Pitbull is dangerous but aging (38) and has shown vulnerability. He predicts Pico will get takedowns and ground-and-pound for a second-round TKO, though he dislikes the -300 price.

second round TKO
"I like Pico here to get it done... I'm going to go Pico to bounce back here and get a second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody passes on this fight, unable to trust Pico's chin at such a high price. He acknowledges the logic but cannot bring himself to bet on Pico.

"I don't think I could click it. I don't think I could click it because I would just hate myself too much if he gets stiffed on like an overhand right in round one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor picks Patrício based on his one-shot power and Pico's defensive vulnerability. He notes that Pico gets blindsided when hit and has no defensive awareness, while Patrício still has a quick, powerful shot. However, he acknowledges Patrício's decline in choosiness and hesitancy, which could give Pico early leash.

Odds too wide; Patrício opened +180 now +270, Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to pick Patricio, but I, yeah, I cannot help, but acknowledge that the man does not have long left in the sport and Aaron Pico is super dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel Vreeland picks Aaron Pico, citing Pico's youth, size, and physicality. He believes Pico will crowd Pitbull and use his grappling to neutralize Pitbull's distance management. He acknowledges Pitbull's power and counter-striking but thinks age and weight cuts have slowed him down.

"I think Pico wins this and I think putting money on Pitbull is a perfectly fine situation at plus 265 given the situation, but I still think he loses."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel acknowledges Pico's chin issues but thinks his skill advantage is significant. He picks Pico but warns that Pitbull is a live dog if Pico is gunshy.

"I think as a pure pick, I'm going to go Pico. But from a betting perspective, this is a dog or pass situation."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

James picks Aaron Pico, expecting him to be more reserved after his knockout loss and use his superior boxing and wrestling to dominate Pitbull. He predicts a KO victory.

"I'm definitely picking Aaron here. I'm actually picking him via KO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Pico should use his wrestling to neutralize Pitbull's power. Pitbull is dangerous but low output and older. Pico's wrestling is elite and he can grind out a decision. However, the line is too steep at -315; value is not there. Pico needs to be calm and avoid brawling. A wrestle-heavy approach should secure the win.

Pico wins by decision
"I'm looking for a wrestle heavy approach from Pico. ... I think Pico wins. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Paul picks Pico despite the high price, believing Pico's wrestling and athleticism will be key. He thinks Pico will use takedowns to neutralize Pitbull's power and grind out a decision.

"I'm taking Pico. I got Pico. It's the minus 300 Paul. Like, how much faith do you have in a guy that's constantly been a letdown?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

The MMA Guru picks Patrício Pitbull over Aaron Pico, despite Pico being a -300 favorite. He questions Pico's chin and notes he has been KO'd multiple times. He believes Pitbull is crafty and experienced, and can catch Pico late in the second or third round by TKO. He thinks the odds should be evens.

Odds comment: Pico at -300 is crazy, should be evens.
"I'm thinking Pitbull because I just seriously can't trust Aaron Pico to get hit flash on the chin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

Zane picks Pico despite his defensive flaws, citing Patrício's recent fragility and choosiness. He notes that Pico is an elite athlete who can roll downhill and that Patrício has been looking more fragile, getting iced early by Chihiro Suzuki. However, he admits Pico's defensive issues are stark and he doesn't feel good about the pick.

Odds too wide; Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to take Pico here. I hate to do it, but I think you, you love to do it."