UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026 · Lightweight · Completed
Age 35
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 30
Height 5' 10"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot
3.29 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.96 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
5.15 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Esteban Ribovics
8.09 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
6.3 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.39 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Mateusz Gamrot
Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
Unibet +106
Esteban Ribovics
Moneyline
Caesars +195
KO/TKO
Unibet +500
Submission
BetRivers +2900
Decision
FanDuel +500
Mateusz Gamrot - Fight History
Submission R2 4:19 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 34 52% 38 of 56 4 of 6 66% 1 0 6:50
Esteban Ribovics 0 4 of 21 19% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 21 66% 24 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 13 30% 14 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 34 52% 15 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 14 of 16
Esteban Ribovics 4 of 21 19% 2 of 15 0 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 21 66% 11 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Esteban Ribovics 1 of 12 8% 0 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Esteban Ribovics 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
Submission R2 2:48 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 11 of 33 33% 18 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:35
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 3 of 8 37% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:47
Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
2 Charles Oliveira 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 3 of 6 4 of 6 10 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 42 42% 16 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Oliveira 8 of 25 32% 4 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 35 40% 13 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.

bet on Gamrot at -120
"I think Mateusz Gamrot is just too experienced, too well-trained, too ingrained in American Top Team to get caught in a submission on the ground. I do not see that happening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.

knockout
"I'm going to say Olivera finds a finish. I'm going to say he's the first person to finish Matteas. I think it's going to be a war... third round knockout for Charles Ola."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.

inside the distance (+160)
"Charles is my pick, but I'm a little scared because I don't know if he's like fully all the way in still at this point."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.

"I'm going to end up picking Charles Olivea in this fight, boys. I just feel like he's got, you know, way more danger on the feet. way more danger on the ground and more damage upside, more big moment upside."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.

"I lean Charles Olivea in this fight. And the reason I say I think is because it is a close fight, you know, and I'm not confident either way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.

Gamrot by decision
"I'm going to go Gamrot here. I'm going to go Gamrot by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.

inside the distance (+160)
"I got Charles Oliveira and if you want to get spicy with it, I think he finishes him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.

submission in round 1 or 2, guillotine
"I'm going to take Charles Olivea by guillotine submission."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 110 59% 142 of 224 6 of 11 54% 0 0 8:45
Ľudovít Klein 0 24 of 74 32% 85 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 19 52% 27 of 43 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:06
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 14 14% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 26 65% 46 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 11 18% 48 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 38 of 65 58% 69 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:34
Ľudovít Klein 0 20 of 49 40% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 110 59% 53 of 98 7 of 7 5 of 5 38 of 73 3 of 4 24 of 33
Ľudovít Klein 24 of 74 32% 10 of 49 13 of 23 1 of 2 23 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 19 52% 3 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 13 2 of 2 4 of 4
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 14 14% 2 of 11 0 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 26 65% 15 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 18
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 11 18% 1 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Gamrot 38 of 65 58% 35 of 62 2 of 2 1 of 1 30 of 53 1 of 1 7 of 11
Ľudovít Klein 20 of 49 40% 7 of 31 12 of 17 1 of 1 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his smooth striking, accuracy, and 90% takedown defense. He notes that Gamrot is chinny and gets dropped often, and that Klein will do damage on the feet while Gamrot holds on. He prefers a prop bet of 'inside the distance/decision no action' because Klein has finishing upside and Gamrot could win a takedown-heavy decision.

Prefers 'inside the distance/decision no action' bet on Klein; mentions plus 3.5 round spread.
"Ludovit's going to be the pick. But because I'm a scaredy-cat instead of outright betting on Ludovit, I'll probably do a win inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, noting this is a massive step down in competition for Gamrot compared to his recent fights. He expects Gamrot to wrestle for 15 minutes, using the small cage to his advantage. He worries about judges in a damage-over-control era but still believes Gamrot wins a decision.

by decision
"I got to go Gamerot. I'm going to take Gameamro by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor agrees with Zane that Gamrot is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Klein's tendency to be a back-foot, pot-shot striker will not work against Gamrot's pressure and wrestling. Connor also notes that Klein's wrestling, when he uses it, will only lead him into Gamrot's world, where Gamrot is superior. He compares the matchup to Klein's fight with Michael Trizano, where Klein was out-jabbed, and expects a similar outcome with Gamrot's wrestling being the difference.

"I think it'll look probably a little bit like that, uh, trisano fight with single legs. Mm-hmm. And that sounds like a gamrott wind to me. It really does odds on the fight camera is the favorite of a minus …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Matt picks Ľudovít Klein as an underdog. He believes Klein's 91% takedown defense and power striking will neutralize Gamrot's wrestling. Klein lands damaging shots and should win the first two rounds, potentially pulling off the upset. Matt likes Klein by decision at +330.

Klein by decision +330, Gamrot by decision -105
"I'm going to go Klein. Uh, Klein by decision currently sits at plus 330."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, though he acknowledges Klein's danger. He believes Gamrot's size and grappling will be key, especially after getting hurt. He notes Klein's cardio issues and that Gamrot is world-class. He predicts Gamrot wins the later rounds, possibly by finish or decision.

Third round finish or decision
"I'm gonna go with Mattesh Gamro over Ludovic Klein... I think he'll win this one against Ludvic Klein."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot because he believes Klein's style is a poor matchup for him. Klein tends to fight on the back foot, picking shots one at a time, and relies on either a wrestling advantage or a tempo advantage to win. Against Gamrot, who is a high-pressure wrestler with excellent grappling, Klein's wrestling will likely lead him into trouble. Zane also notes that Klein's recent opponents have been low-output, and Gamrot's pace and ability to wrestle will overwhelm him, similar to how Michael Trizano out-jabbed Klein.

"So it looks like a Gamrot win. It does. Gamrot. He, what the big thing that Dan Hooker showed him is that Gamrot came out and he looked more deft with his lead hand with it or his left hand. …"
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 64 of 129 49% 88 of 154 5 of 15 33% 0 0 4:59
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 143 45% 82 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 54 48% 31 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Mateusz Gamrot 0 20 of 43 46% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dan Hooker 0 11 of 17 64% 27 of 34 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Dan Hooker 0 27 of 58 46% 30 of 61 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:51
Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 66 42% 31 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 64 of 129 49% 56 of 119 6 of 8 2 of 2 43 of 97 2 of 2 19 of 30
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 143 45% 41 of 111 24 of 32 0 of 0 44 of 119 4 of 6 17 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 26 of 54 48% 22 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 28 2 of 2 15 of 24
Mateusz Gamrot 20 of 43 46% 9 of 28 11 of 15 0 of 0 15 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Dan Hooker 11 of 17 64% 8 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 34 50% 12 of 26 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 23 1 of 1 9 of 10
3 Dan Hooker 27 of 58 46% 26 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 66 42% 20 of 57 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 58 2 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.

Will bet Dan Hooker +3.5 when prop drops
"I'm going to pick gamr ultimately I don't love it but I'm going to pick gamr because I do think the wrestling is just too [__] much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.

decision
"I got to go game Rod here gamr by decision makes most sense to me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.

"I got a hooker knocking out matus gameron"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.

"give me the gamer give me gamrot give me a russle heavy uh fight here over hooker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.

"I'm picking gamrot to win you know like I think he's going to win a a a decision where in one round he's dropped he gets kicked with a body kick he gets dropped like but then he gets that …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.

"I'm gonna go gamr too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.

Gamrot by decision (if +100 or better)
"the official prediction will be gamr and gamra by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.

"I like a gamr by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.

"I'm going with matus gamr over Dan hooker... I think his grappling is going to be too good"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
TKO (knee injury) R2 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 42 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 16 of 27 59% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 32 56% 4 of 14 12 of 16 2 of 2 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 16 of 40 40% 11 of 31 2 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 35 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 27 59% 4 of 11 10 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 12 of 34 35% 7 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.

Gamrot at current moneyline is great value
"the reality is physiov probably gonna win this fight he is gonna be my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.

"I'm gonna take physio to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.

Prefers live betting on Gamrot at plus money; mentions Gamrot's takedown ability and Fiziev's fatigue in later rounds.
"I'm leaning right now towards gamrod... I would much rather just hit this live a bigger plus money price tag on the two's gamron."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.

plus 130 underdog value; hopes line moves to plus 135
"I'm going to have to go with the plus 130 hopefully maybe even a plus 135 or a plus 40 later on in the week on gamr"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.

3 units at -136
"I like Fiziev in this spot... I think he's going to defend the takedowns and knock out Gamrot on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.

over 4.5 rounds
"give me the underdog shot on the Polish fighter here and Montage camera to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly to physive but um I mean I'm gonna wait for weigh-ins and and all of that it's not a fight that I feel like I need to get money on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going for Raphael physiov I just can't unsee it... I think physio is actually going to get a first or second round TKO and make a statement against gamrot"
WIN vs Jalin Turner
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 29 of 42 69% 89 of 109 4 of 12 33% 0 0 6:52
Jalin Turner 1 40 of 97 41% 62 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:26
Jalin Turner 1 12 of 31 38% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 13 of 17 76% 60 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:35
Jalin Turner 0 18 of 48 37% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 7 of 11 63% 15 of 21 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:51
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 29 of 42 69% 18 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 8
Jalin Turner 40 of 97 41% 23 of 72 14 of 22 3 of 3 33 of 90 4 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 14 64% 4 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1
Jalin Turner 12 of 31 38% 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 13 of 17 76% 7 of 11 2 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jalin Turner 18 of 48 37% 11 of 37 4 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 46 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 5
Jalin Turner 10 of 18 55% 4 of 11 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.

"I still think gamron's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.

"I'm gonna take matteus gamer out to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight I'll say bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.

Would be the PRP pick if he goes with Turner
"I'm super tempted to pull the underdog trigger man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.

Mentions Gamrot opened -240, now -217; Turner +205 to +176.
"I do think Gamrot is actually going to finally get some top time in this fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.

Jalin Turner by knockout (hedge)
"gameron is just so so relentless he gets better as the fights go on as well he is just going to drown this kid Jalen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.

"I think the expertise the the experience and the scrambling ability of gamra will keep him safe again against a dangerous finishing prowess of Jalen Turner and I think that we'll see gamrod start to take over the longer that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna pick gamrat but uh another fight that I'm you know very cautious about"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.

"I've got to go with Matthias gamrot here over Jalen Turner... I think gamrock's gonna get this one done using his grappling to a 30-27 unanimous decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.

"This is a better fight for Gamrot than it is for Turner."
LOSS vs Beneil Dariush
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29-28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 1 59 of 130 45% 67 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Mateusz Gamrot 0 33 of 81 40% 38 of 86 4 of 19 21% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 13 69% 13 of 17 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:22
2 Beneil Dariush 0 31 of 67 46% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mateusz Gamrot 0 15 of 47 31% 15 of 47 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:10
3 Beneil Dariush 1 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 59 of 130 45% 35 of 100 15 of 21 9 of 9 52 of 121 2 of 3 5 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 33 of 81 40% 22 of 67 9 of 12 2 of 2 29 of 76 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 9 of 26 34% 2 of 16 4 of 7 3 of 3 7 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 13 69% 8 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Beneil Dariush 31 of 67 46% 19 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 4 27 of 62 0 of 0 4 of 5
Mateusz Gamrot 15 of 47 31% 9 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Beneil Dariush 19 of 37 51% 14 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 21 42% 5 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)

Round 1
Like every other main card tilt, this lightweight affair pitting Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC) against Gamrot (21-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has nearly immediate championship implications, as the victor could very likely be next in line for the winner of the headliner a few fights from now. Before they can look ahead, they have to get past the other, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Movahedi. The two bump fists, and after a few seconds to find their feet in the cage, Dariush slings a pair of quick kicks. Dariush rushes forward with a high kick, and Gamrot attacks for a takedown. A furious scramble ensues, and Gamrot lowers Dariush down but finds himself in leglock danger. Dariush attempts to sweep with this, but the two end up back on their feet. Gamrot pushes him to the wall, but he releases his foe and they reset. The right ear of Gamrot is split, and it starts to bleed, but he pays it no mind. Dariush attacks with a few low kicks, and Gamrot catches a body kick that follows and dumps Dariush to the mat. Dariush pursues a leglock as soon as they hit the ground, and he considers a heel hook but is on the wrong side without the right leverage to lock it down. “Gamer” pulls his leg out and stands up, and Dariush follows him. Gamrot stays tightly pressed to his opponent, before releasing him and backing off. An odd takedown entry allows Gamrot to get his hands on Dariush and drag the fight down, but Dariush defends with an awkward position to stop it. Dariush implores the referee to break them up, so Gamrot answers this by taking Dariush’s legs out beneath him. The Polish fighter cannot keep Dariush down, so he backs off and lets Dariush kick him in the side. On the kick, Gamrot grabs it, and he gives a shove but cannot ground Dariush this time. They trade kicks, and Gamrot slips on the way out before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot

Round 2
Sherdog encountered some technical difficulties at the beginning of this round, and we apologize for the inconvenience. We resume the action at the beginning of Round 2. The lightweights touch ‘em up, and Gamrot leans forward into a punch and has a strange reaction to it, but it could have been from a possible takedown setup. Gamrot resets and crashes forward for an authentic try, and Dariush tosses him aside and lets Gamrot get his footing again. Dariush kicks the body and gets punched in the head for his effort, and Gamrot counters another kick with an overhand right. Dariush pushes a jab out, and he sets up a high kick that glances off the shoulder. The lightweights clash legs at the same time, and Dariush walks forward to engage only to get sniped with a jab. Gamrot dives down to the ankle to take the fight down, and Dariush pulls his leg away and backs away. Dariush intercepts his opponent with a stern knee, and he targets the body with his shin as his legs continue to be his best weapon. A Gamrot takedown is stuffed, and Dariush makes him pay by chopping at his lead leg. The single strikes come back and forth, and Gamrot darts forward to throw a few in a bundle, but Dariush slips and rips with a left hand. The former KSW champ slowly moves forward without pulling the trigger, and he is forced to block a high kick that rolls off his shoulder. Dariush scoops up an uppercut and gets backed off with an overhand right, and Gamrot blitzes him with a knee. Gamrot sprints at his foe for one final takedown, and the scramble that ensues ends the round with both men on their seats.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 3
The top lightweights meet in the middle and offer half-hearted gloved touch that is more of a jab, and Gamrot claims the center of the cage. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown entry, but the veteran savvy of Dariush smoothly flows with the attempt and forces Gamrot to release his grip and stand back up. Dariush lets him have it with a flush kick to the body, and he lets go with a subsequent pair of kicks to the upper thigh. As Gamrot replies with a head kick try, Dariush pops him with a right hook. Gamrot comes up short with another high kick, and Dariush sees his strikes coming and is seemingly one step ahead of the offense. Dariush lifts up a knee that bounces off the midsection when Gamrot strides forward, and Gamrot continues to give chase no matter what he absorbs. The crowd appears distracted with the drama outside the cage, and they rain down a shower of boos not targeting the fighters but at that individual or individuals. As they are paying attention to something out of the cage, Gamrot leaps forward to snatch up Dariush’s lead leg and look for a takedown, but the attempt fails and Dariush gains his balance and hops away. Gamrot loops a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done when Dariush backpedals. Dariush prepares a left-hand counter for when Gamrot walks into his range, and he times a spectacular blow that knocks Gamrot clean off his feet. The recoverability of Gamrot is solid, as he somersaults back and gets right back into action following the flash knockdown. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Dariush smoothly follows him all the way through to get to his knees and back up without spending much time on his back. The fight comes to an end with one final exchange of alternating punches, and the lightweights hug it out after the bell sounds. It remains to be seen if the victor here has done enough to earn a crack at the triumphant man of the main event, a shot which also hinges on the result of that match itself.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)

The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot confidently, stating he is better everywhere than Dariush. He highlights Gamrot's wrestling, power, cardio, and pace, and notes that Dariush has been waiting for a title shot while Gamrot has been active. He has 2 units on Gamrot at -185 and expects the line to move.

"gamrod's a clear pick his minus 185 odds right now are solid those are definitely going to move I got two units on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Gamrot to win by knockout in the second round. He questions Dariush's chin (three knockout losses) and believes Gamrot's volume and deceptive power will catch him. He expects the fight to play out mostly on the feet, with Gamrot dictating the range. He notes Dariush's striking is underrated but trusts Gamrot to land a finishing shot.

second round knockout
"I think gamra knocks him out and uh moves up these rankings so I like gamrod here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody thinks Gamrot is the pick, noting his wrestling pedigree and takedown defense. He believes Gamrot's pressure and pace will be key, and that Dariush may struggle with cardio. Cody acknowledges Dariush is a live underdog but feels Gamrot is getting more comfortable and should put on a clean performance. He is not super high on Gamrot this week because Dariush could spoil.

"the pick is gamma and I'm gonna ride with him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot, citing his incredible pace and cardio, which he believes will wear down Dariush over three rounds. He notes that Dariush often gasses after going berserk, and Gamrot's ability to keep up high-intensity scrambles will exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Dariush could win early if he lands a big shot or imposes his grappling.

"I'm gonna take Gamrot because he's got an incredible pace... he has a way of sort of sucking some of the life out of the fight on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mateusz Gamrot. He praises Gamrot's unorthodox low single leg takedown and relentless pressure, noting he attempted 21 takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan. Levi is concerned about Dariush's recent broken ankle and whether he will be fully recovered. He thinks Dariush has the better striking, especially body kicks, but worries that Gamrot's wrestling and scrambling could overwhelm Dariush over three rounds. Levi does not bet this fight.

"I'm gonna slightly lean towards gamroth though but I mean I can't blame someone for taking a plus 165 on their use."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot has shown he can grapple with high-level fighters like Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush's reckless style may leave him open to counters. Gamrot is the cleaner striker and has cardio advantage. The under 2.5 at +160 or Gamrot inside the distance at +250 are intriguing. A one-unit shot on the under is the play.

Under 2.5 rounds at +160; Gamrot inside the distance at +250; Gamrot by KO at +500
"the under two and a half at plus 160 which is the last line I saw that has my Intrigue but even uh gamrod inside the distance at plus 250 I think is a great line as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul is torn but leans Gamrot, citing that wrestling may be negated in the big cage and that Gamrot has speed and grappling advantages. He mentions Dariush's chin issues from the past and that Gamrot's power could be a factor. Paul is not sure about betting but picks Gamrot.

"gamrat's the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. He questions the quality of Dariush's wins (e.g., Ferguson) and notes Dariush's long layoff due to a broken leg. He believes Gamrot's youth, momentum, and grappling will overwhelm Dariush, predicting a decision win with some dangerous moments.

"I'm going with Matteo Shamrock now"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane picks Dariush, arguing that Dariush's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight early will give him an edge. He notes that Dariush is a hell of a grappler and can match Gamrot's wrestling, and that Gamrot's takedowns don't lead to control. He admits it's a close fight and that Dariush's tendency to get hurt is a concern, but he thinks Dariush can win a decision or finish.

"I'll take the flyer on Dariush. I think Dariush is gonna probably have a really good round one."
Esteban Ribovics - Fight History
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Submission R2 4:19 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 34 52% 38 of 56 4 of 6 66% 1 0 6:50
Esteban Ribovics 0 4 of 21 19% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 21 66% 24 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 13 30% 14 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 34 52% 15 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 14 of 16
Esteban Ribovics 4 of 21 19% 2 of 15 0 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 21 66% 11 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Esteban Ribovics 1 of 12 8% 0 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Esteban Ribovics 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
WIN vs Elves Brener
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 118 of 250 47% 123 of 256 0 of 9 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 122 of 281 43% 123 of 284 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 68 52% 37 of 69 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 39 of 95 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 48 of 88 54% 51 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 34 of 94 36% 35 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 49 of 102 48% 49 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 118 of 250 47% 88 of 211 15 of 23 15 of 16 118 of 248 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 122 of 281 43% 86 of 233 23 of 29 13 of 19 114 of 268 0 of 0 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 36 of 68 52% 21 of 51 6 of 8 9 of 9 36 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 39 of 95 41% 29 of 83 6 of 6 4 of 6 31 of 82 0 of 0 8 of 13
2 Esteban Ribovics 48 of 88 54% 39 of 76 5 of 8 4 of 4 48 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 34 of 84 40% 21 of 65 7 of 10 6 of 9 34 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 34 of 94 36% 28 of 84 4 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 49 of 102 48% 36 of 85 10 of 13 3 of 4 49 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.

"Ribovitch, I have a lot more faith that his durability, his game is built to take advantage of his durability in ways that are much more sustainable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.

Inside the distance; Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I think Rivix is going to win the fight... inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.

"I think that Rubavich is somebody who likes fighting every bit as much as Brenner. Oh, no denying. There's no doubt of that."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 135 of 273 49% 135 of 273 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 147 of 433 33% 149 of 436 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 107 33% 36 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 49 of 104 47% 49 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 62 of 183 33% 62 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 53 of 105 50% 53 of 105 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 49 of 143 34% 51 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 135 of 273 49% 103 of 233 26 of 34 6 of 6 134 of 272 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 147 of 433 33% 120 of 395 17 of 27 10 of 11 147 of 433 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 33 of 64 51% 21 of 50 11 of 13 1 of 1 33 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 36 of 107 33% 28 of 94 3 of 7 5 of 6 36 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 49 of 104 47% 39 of 91 8 of 11 2 of 2 49 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 62 of 183 33% 53 of 170 6 of 10 3 of 3 62 of 183 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 53 of 105 50% 43 of 92 7 of 10 3 of 3 52 of 104 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 49 of 143 34% 39 of 131 8 of 10 2 of 2 49 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics, highlighting his sneaky power, tight striking, and ability to mix in takedowns and BJJ. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast is not very dangerous and tends to win close decisions, but believes Ribovics can win more decisively. He also mentions that Vegas judges don't favor Nasrat, which could help Ribovics.

"I'm pretty high on re he's got dog in him we saw that in the L fight he has some wrestling he's got striking nazat is not very dangerous so I think reix can win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics, citing his volume, durability, and power. He notes Nasrat Haqparast is not a wrestler and will stand and trade, which favors Ribovics. He predicts Ribovics will break Haqparast and knock him out in the second round.

Ribovics by KO round 2
"I'm going to take Esteban Rivix to win this fight and I think he knocks out hack brast... give me rivix to win by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor picks Ribovics as a fun flyer, noting that Ribovics is a pocket combination puncher who will force exchanges and get hit but also land. He mentions that Haqparast has lost to similar pressure fighters like Dober and that Ribovics has the power to hurt him. Connor admits it's a competitive fight but goes with Ribovics for the upset.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'll just pick ribovich because uh, I would normally pick hock peros and I don't feel like it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The host acknowledges the public is high on Ribovics after his Fight of the Year candidate, but believes they are overlooking Haqparast's experience and strength of schedule. He expects Haqparast's combination striking to overcome the favorite and win a decision.

decision
"I believe the public is very high on reix after that fight of the year he had against Daniel zel Huber back in September but they are overlooking the experience and strength of schedule from hack prast and I believe …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. He views Haqparast as a simple straight-punch fighter without enough power, while Ribovics is more dynamic with better footwork, kicks, and versatility. He notes Ribovics' fight of the year contender and predicts a close 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going with es bam ribovich... he mixes it up way better he's the one Landing body kicks and a head kick here and there... I'm going to go vean decision 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Zane picks Haqparast, banking on his speed and experience in close fights. He notes that Haqparast rarely loses to opponents he is faster than, and Ribovics is hittable and will force exchanges. Zane acknowledges that Haqparast can be out-thought but believes his athleticism will carry him in a brawl.

Haqparast opened +197, now +248; Ribovics opened -264, now -284. Zane notes the odds are moving away from Haqparast.
"I'm banking on hock per husk just being faster honestly."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 1 121 of 308 39% 121 of 308 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 156 of 345 45% 156 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 51 of 116 43% 51 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 40 of 89 44% 40 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Esteban Ribovics 1 43 of 116 37% 43 of 116 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 92 of 191 48% 92 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 121 of 308 39% 83 of 255 33 of 48 5 of 5 117 of 304 4 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 156 of 345 45% 103 of 276 32 of 48 21 of 21 154 of 342 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 27 of 76 35% 13 of 59 11 of 14 3 of 3 26 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 24 of 65 36% 7 of 41 9 of 16 8 of 8 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Esteban Ribovics 51 of 116 43% 33 of 93 16 of 21 2 of 2 50 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 40 of 89 44% 23 of 68 9 of 13 8 of 8 40 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 43 of 116 37% 37 of 103 6 of 13 0 of 0 41 of 114 2 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 92 of 191 48% 73 of 167 14 of 19 5 of 5 90 of 188 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He notes Ribovics is well-rounded with sneaky power, tight strikes, good takedowns, and solid BJJ. He sees this as a close fight possibly going to split decision, so he placed a quarter unit on Ribovics moneyline at +180 and plans to put another quarter on the plus 3.5 spread to cover a close decision loss. He is confident in the dog pick.

Placed 0.25 units on moneyline at +180; plans to also bet plus 3.5 spread.
"I am picking him to win here he's the dog and I'm picking him to win here... I placed a bet on eston Rix at plus 180"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady likes Zellhuber due to an 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking technique. He notes Ribovics has no takedown defense, so Zellhuber can mix in takedowns if needed. He expects a competitive fight but Zellhuber to win a decision.

"I like zel Huber here... I think it's going to be a war I think it's going to be fun I think it goes to decision give me zel H to get the decision win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel leans with Daniel Zellhuber, praising his 8-inch reach advantage, kickboxing, and 94% takedown defense. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter but respects Ribovics' dangerous hands and get-up game. He is not fully convinced the line is right but goes with Zellhuber.

"I'm a lean with Danielle Z Huber I'm not convinced the line is right uh I'm not convinced but I don't say that uh with confidence"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Zellhuber because he likes his volume and ability to put pressure on opponents. He notes Zellhuber's only loss was to Trey Ogden, who grinded him out, but Ribovics is a power puncher who will let his hands fly, which plays into Zellhuber's strengths. He compares it to the Bahamondes vs Torres fight, favoring the taller, sharper striker.

Zellhuber by decision +135
"I don't really love the value on this one with zel Huber but I am gonna pick zel Huer mostly just because I like his volume and his ability to put it on somebody"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Jeff Fox picks Daniel Zellhuber as well, stating he is slightly better everywhere. He acknowledges the odds aren't favorable but notes he is ignoring size and youth this time, having turned over a new leaf.

"I'm taking zel Huber as well I just I think he's slightly better um everywhere but yeah the odds really aren't in our favor low for for that"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Ribovics packs power but Zellhuber is very calm, technical, and disciplined with his striking approach. Expects Zellhuber to utilize his footwork and touch up Ribovics from distance, winning on the scorecards.

"zel Huber is very calm Technical and disciplined with the Striking approach I expect him to utilize his footwork and touch up rabix from distance and win this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber. He highlights Zellhuber's 8-inch reach advantage and his ability to keep distance and pick shots. He notes Ribovics has a 69-inch reach which is flyweight-level, and at 5'10" that's a disadvantage. He trusts Zellhuber's game plan under coach Eric Nicksick and his recent back-to-back good performances.

"I'm going to go with Daniel el Huber and uh he's had two good performances back to back so I'm going to trust him to get this one done"
KO (head kick) R1 0:37 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.

"I got to go with the more durable guy here I have to go with the more dependable guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.

"I'm going to take riix to uh survive an early storm here get taken down get back up make McKenna work and I think he's going to push a pace here and finish M McKenna in the the late first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-220) parlayed with other unders; live betting Ribovics
"I think ribovich is a better live bet and I suppose yeah the the under one and a half is decent uh decent parlay fodder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.

late finish
"I think estaban takes over late and gets a late finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.

Under 1.5 rounds is a must play; McKinney round 1 prop
"give me uh mckenny round one but the under one and a half is a must play especially in Terence McKenna fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.

Under 1.5 rounds
"I expect ribovich eventually to Prevail and mckin to gas out and then probably get finished either late in the first round or early in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Terren mckin who is an underdog here... I think he has the advantage in the grappling over esam ribovich."
WIN vs Kamuela Kirk
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 56 of 107 52% 86 of 147 3 of 14 21% 1 0 6:20
Kamuela Kirk 0 115 of 202 56% 135 of 224 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 2 of 2 100% 29 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:37
Kamuela Kirk 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamuela Kirk 0 65 of 118 55% 71 of 126 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 19 of 38 50% 21 of 40 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:43
Kamuela Kirk 0 49 of 82 59% 61 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 56 of 107 52% 36 of 84 12 of 15 8 of 8 51 of 101 5 of 6 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 115 of 202 56% 94 of 177 17 of 20 4 of 5 92 of 172 10 of 13 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Esteban Ribovics 35 of 67 52% 20 of 50 9 of 11 6 of 6 31 of 62 4 of 5 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 65 of 118 55% 58 of 109 6 of 8 1 of 1 55 of 102 4 of 6 6 of 10
3 Esteban Ribovics 19 of 38 50% 14 of 32 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 49 of 82 59% 36 of 68 11 of 12 2 of 2 36 of 68 6 of 7 7 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo is confident in Ribovics, calling him the better striker with sneaky power and solid takedowns. He notes Kirk's tendency to fade, keep his hands low, and be hittable. He thinks Kirk's patience and year-long layoff will work against him. He placed a full unit bet at -200 and sees value even at that price.

Bet 1 unit at -200
"Reba fix is the pick and I threw a full unit on him at minus 200"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ribovics has heavy power and has knocked out opponents brutally, but his takedown defense is terrible. He believes Kirk is a good grappler who doesn't use his grappling enough, and if Kirk tries to strike, he will get knocked out. He expects Kirk to get tired if he wrestles, and Ribovics will take over and finish him in the second or third round.

third round knockout
"give me removics to win this fight I'll say ribofix wins this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting his power and improved wrestling. He thinks Kirk's wrestling is overrated and he has not improved. He mentions Ribovics showed good cardio and get-up ability against a strong wrestler. He grabbed Ribovics at -139.

Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I grabbed the minus 139 while you were talking"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor picks Ribovics because Kirk is a fighter who can be dominated in any area where his opponent is better. Ribovics is a better striker and more deliberate, and he showed credible resistance against pressure in his fight with Rongzhu. Kirk's flashy style doesn't hold up against solid fundamentals.

"Ribovich looks just overall more solid everywhere, basically."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Levi picks Ribovics, citing his dog mentality, knockout power, and ability to take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Kirk has cardio issues and has been broken in past fights, and that Ribovics showed resilience in his UFC debut by coming back after being rocked and taken down. Levi acknowledges that Kirk may have success early but believes Ribovics's volume and power will be decisive. He also mentions that Kirk moving up to lightweight may help his cardio, but still favors Ribovics.

"I'm still going Esteban man I think he's got more dog and he's got more power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Esteban Ribovics

James believes Ribovics is the better fighter overall, citing intangibles like cardio, durability, power, physicality, heart, and will. He thinks Kirk may have better technical MMA skills but lacks the intangibles and will look for a way out when the going gets tough. James would make Ribovics at least a -170 favorite, seeing value at the current -140 to -150 range.

"I think ribavix is the fighter and I don't think Kirk is I think when the going gets tough for Kirk he's going to look for a way out more than Esteban rivervix is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Ribovics has shown he can deal with grapple-heavy approaches and work back to his feet to land his striking. Kirk struggles with pressure, and Ribovics will overwhelm him with aggressive striking, eventually finding the chin and finishing with ground and pound. The under 2.5 rounds is also a viable play.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with rebovix here I think even the under two and a half is not a bad way of looking at this fight but I think that rebovix eventually finds that chin of Kirk overwhelms him with strikes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, citing his physicality and power. He thinks Kirk has stagnated and lost to better competition. He notes Ribovics' performance against a tough wrestler showed his potential. He expects Ribovics to win by KO or decision.

Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I got to go with Esteban to get the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics to win by KO in the first round. He describes Kirk as a worse version of Shane Burgos who overthrows his shots and leaves himself open to counters. He believes Ribovics' nasty counter hooks will catch Kirk coming in, leading to a finish.

wins by KO in the first round
"I think rybovich is going to catch him clean counter hook on the chin end of the first round put away cam Willa Kirk by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane picks Ribovics because Kirk is all flash and swagger with little substance, and he crumbles under pressure as seen against Damon Jackson. Ribovics is a more solid, deliberate striker who can pressure Kirk and dominate him in any area. Kirk has no answer for naked pressure, and Ribovics looks better everywhere.

"I just don't trust Kamuela Kirk."
LOSS vs Loik Radzhabov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loik Radzhabov 1 66 of 129 51% 98 of 162 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:31
Esteban Ribovics 0 40 of 85 47% 67 of 117 11 of 21 52% 0 0 7:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loik Radzhabov 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 8 of 23 34% 20 of 37 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:00
2 Loik Radzhabov 1 25 of 47 53% 38 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Esteban Ribovics 0 13 of 28 46% 18 of 33 4 of 9 44% 0 0 2:24
3 Loik Radzhabov 0 27 of 50 54% 41 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:27
Esteban Ribovics 0 19 of 34 55% 29 of 47 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loik Radzhabov 66 of 129 51% 52 of 114 11 of 12 3 of 3 61 of 124 1 of 1 4 of 4
Esteban Ribovics 40 of 85 47% 33 of 78 6 of 6 1 of 1 37 of 81 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loik Radzhabov 14 of 32 43% 10 of 28 3 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 8 of 23 34% 7 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Loik Radzhabov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 40 6 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 43 0 of 0 4 of 4
Esteban Ribovics 13 of 28 46% 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Loik Radzhabov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 46 2 of 3 1 of 1 26 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 19 of 34 55% 15 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 30 1 of 2 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.

fight does not go to distance (minus 160)
"I think Lloyd's pressure cardio and non-stop wrestling are gonna be the difference here but I wouldn't lay money on two UFC debuts like this that are just who the hell knows what's gonna happen here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.

second round knockout
"I think I'm gonna kick off the card with a dog... I'll take ribavix to win this fight though and I'm going to take him to win this fight I'm gonna say second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.

Under 2.5 rounds (-135) but hesitant due to short notice
"I'll pick loick because I'll pick them but yeah minus 275 kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.

"I'm just gonna look at the way he's putting his sleep and say it's true. This dude hits like a truck but yeah, you know just hitting hard alone. It's not enough to beat a good fighter who has options."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.

Esteban Ribovics second/third round finish
"I think Esteban can survive and if he does survive the first round I think that this fight is going to turn very very quickly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.

"I think eventually he'll be able to get a hold of him drag him to the ground and then from there I don't think that Kimura sweep path to his feet is going to work for rebovix at this level"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.

"I just don't see that happening he not known for his cardio him being on short notice isn't great"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.

"I'm still going to pick Raja buff to win... I think he will win this fight by decision plus."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.

"I'm going to just because he's never been knocked out before. That's probably enough for me to go."
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."