UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 327
Age 35
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 23
Height 5' 10"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Charles Radtke
2.8 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
2.63 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.32 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Francisco Prado
4.09 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.95 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.94 TD Avg
19.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Charles Radtke
Moneyline
BetRivers -167
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
FanDuel +195
Francisco Prado
KO/TKO
Polymarket +260
Submission
BetRivers +2400
Decision
Polymarket +850
Charles Radtke - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 24 of 47 51% 121 of 164 4 of 5 80% 0 0 9:07
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 66 43% 41 of 79 0 of 0 --- 2 2 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 7 of 11 63% 40 of 49 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:50
Francisco Prado 0 8 of 10 80% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Charles Radtke 0 5 of 8 62% 41 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
Francisco Prado 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
3 Charles Radtke 0 12 of 28 42% 40 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Francisco Prado 0 11 of 34 32% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 24 of 47 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 33 1 of 1 9 of 13
Francisco Prado 29 of 66 43% 16 of 46 9 of 12 4 of 8 17 of 45 1 of 3 11 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Francisco Prado 8 of 10 80% 2 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Radtke 5 of 8 62% 5 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 10 of 22 45% 7 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Charles Radtke 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 24 1 of 1 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 11 of 34 32% 7 of 25 3 of 6 1 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charlie Radtke, citing his athletic grappling, powerful striking, and controlling ground game. He notes Radtke's tendency to slow down and be hittable but believes he has more tools than Prado. He expects a decision win, acknowledging Prado's toughness and durability despite his losing streak.

"Charlie has more tools in the bag if he can keep his pace, if he can keep his cardio. I think he can win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady is not high on Prado, noting he is undersized for welterweight and has only one UFC win. He thinks Radtke will be the bigger, stronger, more physical fighter with wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He expects Radtke to take down Prado and win by decision, as Prado is durable and has never been finished.

decision
"Give me Radtke and Radtke by decision in the first fight of the night."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody also picks Prado, noting Radtke's low output and Prado's improved wrestling. He thinks Prado can scramble back to his feet and land damaging shots.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke based on his wrestling advantage and range tools. He notes that Prado's wrestling is terrible and Radtke can outwrestle him. He acknowledges Radtke's lack of durability but trusts his ability to control the fight with takedowns.

"I have to pick Radke to win it. Like by having any range tools by having, yeah, even just a check, a left hook that he likes to throw."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Radtke, believing he will dominate. He notes that Radtke is a full-sized welterweight with good cardio and fight IQ, while Prado is moving up and has not shown high-level skills. He thinks Radtke will win clear rounds, possibly by decision.

"I like Radke a lot here. And I think it's just going to be domination."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Daniel thinks Radtke has plateaued and is a finished product, while Prado is young, durable, and improving. He expects Prado to be too tough and enthusiastic.

"I'm going to go Francisco Prada to get back on track."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

James picks Radtke based on his grappling advantage, though he notes Radtke's weight cut issues. He expects a decision win via control.

"I'll pick Charles Raky via decision as of now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke's grappling and pressure should be enough to outwork Prado. Prado has a better gas tank and takedown defense than Radtke's last opponent, but Radtke's clinch and BJJ are strong. Prado's striking is his best path, but he often grapples unnecessarily. Radtke can grind out a decision, though the line is a bit steep for confidence.

Radtke wins by decision
"I still think he has a good enough shot to keeping this fight on his terms and that should lead to him grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Paul picks Prado as an underdog, believing his power and durability can overcome Radtke's low-volume wrestling. He thinks Prado can land a big shot or win a decision.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke over Francisco Prado. He notes that Prado has lost four in a row and is a bit basic with a Mike Tyson style that hasn't worked at welterweight. Radtke has KO power and looked good against Brenneman, with a wrestling advantage and improved stand-up training with Belal Muhammad. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Radtke.

"I'm going to pick him to win this one. I am."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing that his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Prado is durable but walks blindly into people, making him easy to take down. He acknowledges Radtke's chin issues but trusts his wrestling to secure the win.

"I'll take Radky for the wrestling advantage."
WIN vs Daniel Frunza
Submission R3 4:29 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 31 of 38 81% 163 of 214 3 of 5 60% 2 0 11:41
Daniel Frunza 0 6 of 24 25% 68 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 9 of 14 64% 60 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:43
Daniel Frunza 0 3 of 10 30% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Radtke 0 19 of 21 90% 66 of 72 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:11
Daniel Frunza 0 1 of 7 14% 45 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Radtke 0 3 of 3 100% 37 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:47
Daniel Frunza 0 2 of 7 28% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 31 of 38 81% 28 of 34 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 28
Daniel Frunza 6 of 24 25% 4 of 16 2 of 4 0 of 4 6 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 9 of 14 64% 7 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 7
Daniel Frunza 3 of 10 30% 3 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 4 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Radtke 19 of 21 90% 18 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 18 of 19
Daniel Frunza 1 of 7 14% 0 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Charles Radtke 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Daniel Frunza 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charles Radtke, emphasizing his grappling advantage. He notes Radtke is a good grappler who can shoot doubles and control on top, while Frunza is a solid striker but easily taken down. He believes Radtke can finish on the ground and will include him in his lineup. He warns that Radtke sometimes slugs it out, which is a risk, but expects him to wrestle.

"I'm going to pick Charles, and I'm going to shoot my shot and throw him in the lineup because he A has a bunch of finishes, and B all he has to do is wrestle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charles Radtke, calling Daniel Frunza's debut terrible and noting Frunza is hittable and has been finished in losses. He highlights Radtke's power, BJJ black belt, and training at Valley Flow. He thinks Radtke should wrestle and submit Frunza, but also sees a first-round finish on the feet. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"Give me Charles Raky. I'll [snorts] say Raky wins this fight by first round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor also picks Radtke, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes that technically Frunza may be better, but Frunza lacks physical durability and confidence, as shown in the McKee fight. He thinks Radtke's left hook will be decisive.

"I'll take Radke mostly for like the athleticism the speed and the power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Frunza

Lucrative James picks Daniel Frunza as the underdog, calling it a close fight. He notes Radtke's powerful left hook but also his tendency to overextend. Frunza is tough and has been tested in wars. James sees value in the underdog line and expects a competitive striking matchup, possibly ending in a knockout. He also mentions interest in betting the under.

under 1.5 rounds, under 2.5 rounds
"I'm just going to pick the underdog in this one. Daniel Fun's at plus 120."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Frunza

Frunza is the superior striker and his defensive grappling has improved enough that Radtke will struggle to use his BJJ. Once forced to strike, Frunza will catch Radtke and knock him out. Surprised Frunza is at plus money.

surprised at plus money, knockout
"Kind of surprised we're getting Frenza at plus money here as I think he is the superior striker. And I think his defensive grappling has improved enough that Radkkey will struggle to utilize his BJJ black belt. And once he's …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke, citing his power and the fact that Daniel Frunza was dropped multiple times by Reese McKee. He believes Radtke's hooks will be too much for Frunza, predicting a first round TKO. He notes Radtke's losses are to high-level fighters like Carlos Prates and Mike Malott.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Charles Radtke getting this one done by first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke because he is a brainless goon with a power left hook, and nothing about Frunza suggests he can handle even one hard left hook. He notes that Frunza looked spooked when hit hard by Reese McKee and lacks durability and confidence. He expects a quick knockout.

"I'm gonna pick Charles Radke. Because he is a brainless goon with a power left hook."
LOSS vs Mike Malott
KO R2 0:26 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Malott 1 36 of 61 59% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Charles Radtke 0 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Malott 0 27 of 47 57% 27 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Radtke 0 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mike Malott 1 9 of 14 64% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Charles Radtke 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Malott 36 of 61 59% 21 of 42 5 of 9 10 of 10 28 of 51 2 of 3 6 of 7
Charles Radtke 10 of 33 30% 9 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Malott 27 of 47 57% 12 of 29 5 of 8 10 of 10 25 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
Charles Radtke 10 of 29 34% 9 of 27 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mike Malott 9 of 14 64% 9 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 7
Charles Radtke 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mike Malott vs. Charlie Radtke
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-192), Radtke (+160)

Round 1
Halifax native Malott (11-2-1, 4-1 UFC) will attempt to put a bow on the prelims for his home country fans, and with 10 stoppages in his 11 pro wins, referee Marc Goddard will need to be on his A game. Standing across from him is a frustrated but very dangerous Radtke (10-4, 3-1 UFC), who does not like being booed even though he is in hostile territory. Tensions ran high at the weigh-ins as Radtke flipped off the crowd while draped in an American flag, and he will have the next 15 minutes or less to send an additional message. There is no touch of gloves to get going. Radtke reaches the center of the cage first, advancing forward and walking through a stomping kick to his knee so he can lash out with a right hand. Radtke dodges it and pushes off with a side kick, and he steps in with a left hand and a push kick. Malott sits down on a trio of punches to catch Radtke unaware, who tanks them well and responds with an overhand right. Malott kicks the lead knee a few more times, and he connects with a left hand over the top. Crude chants against Radtke rain down, who is promptly kicked in the ribs by the Canadian. Malott pins a one-two on the chin, and he dances out of the way of a counter. Malott sits down in four crisp punches, with Radtke’s chin holding up well. The chants rain down again, directing Radtke to do something inappropriate as Malott wraps a head kick around his guard and chains a spinning back kick into it. Radtke plods forward, clubbing Malott with a pair of hooks. Malott aims a front kick and connects at the end of a one-two, and he continues to beat on Radtke’s knee. The chants come a third time, and Malott channels that energy by kicking “Chuck Buffalo” in the head. Radtke swarms him, catching Malott with several punches that shake him up. Malott responds with a knee to the gut and breaks off, kicking the front leg on the way out. The punches from the American bust Malott’s nose open, who crashes the pocket and misses the mark with a swinging left. Malott connects with a body kick, leaning back to avoid a left hand and working on Radtke’s knee again. Radtke eats a few punches to swing on Malott, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
The fighters meet in the middle, and they promptly throw hands. Malott backs off, parrying the advancing Radtke and blasting him with a left hook that makes him crash into the cage. Malott whiffs on a high kick as Radtke circles away to get his bearings, and he walks the American down and plants a one-two square on his forehead.
This time, Malott does not stop with two punches, and the third, a crisp left hook, sends “Chuck Buffalo” collapsing to his seat. Radtke lays on his back clutching his head, and Malott sprints towards him and bombards him with five blistering punches that knock Radtke all the way out and back in again. As the Canadian drums Radtke’s skull off the cage floor, blood spraying from his busted jaw, Goddard runs towards them to stop the fight
. The audience that had already voiced full-throated support for their man goes ballistic, and it is deafening in the building. “Proper Mike” hoists the Canadian flag and climbs to the top of the cage, waving it in the air as he drinks in all the love in the building. Radtke sits up and tries to stand, but he has to be helped to the stool. Malott goes to shake hands with everyone willing to engage him, and he slams his hand on the corner post of a sponsor to make a point. The fighters shake hands, burying any beef that had developed during the week.

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Charlie Radtke R2 0:26 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott as the better fighter but expresses concern about his quit against Neil Magny. He notes Malott is faster and more athletic, but Radtke is tough and could surge late. He has already placed a parlay with Malott and Jasmine Jasudavicius at plus money. He hopes Malott has learned from his loss.

Placed parlay with Jasmine Jasudavicius at plus money
"Mike's the better fighter here. He's faster, he's more athletic, he's has cleaner skills overall, but he's not the tougher guy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady questions Mike Malott's heart, cardio, and chin, noting he was broken by Neil Magny. He thinks Radtke is physically strong, has great takedown defense, and possesses a powerful left hook. He predicts Radtke will land that left hook and knock out Malott in the second round, as Malott is hittable and has a suspect chin.

Radtke wins by knockout in round 2
"I'm going Charles Raky here to win this fight. ... I think Raky lands that left hook and knocks out Mike Malot in the second round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The host has low confidence but believes Malott is the technically superior striker who can thwart Radtke's aggression. He suggests the fight likely won't go to decision and expects Malott to get a submission or KO.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"Not a whole lot of confidence here and I think fight doesn't go to decision will likely be the best course of action in this matchup."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Radtke, citing his initial instinct that Radtke would chin Malott. He thinks Radtke's pressure, left hook, and volume will overwhelm Malott, who has a suspect nose and struggled against pressure in the Gall fight. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Radtke's power and Malott's potential grappling disadvantage.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Charles Radkkey getting this one done in an upset by TKO. I'm assuming this is an upset."
TKO (punches) R1 0:51 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Semelsberger 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Semelsberger 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 7 of 12 58% 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 7 of 12 58% 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charles Radtke because he believes Radtke will land the better shots and get takedowns. He notes Radtke is an athletic grappler with power, while Semelsberger is an aggressive striker with poor takedown defense (45%). He thinks Semelsberger's toughness will keep him in the fight but doesn't see him winning. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds line if available, as both are tough.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"I think Charlie's going to land the better shot shs get the takedowns which hopefully we'll start to see more of and I think he wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady likes Radtke's multiple paths to victory: power on the feet and a clear grappling advantage. He criticizes Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and low volume, noting that Radtke is a BJJ black belt with submission wins. He predicts a second-round submission.

Radtke by submission, round 2
"I'll take racky to win this fight I think it's a submission and I think it's round round uh round two submission I'll say for Charles raky"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Cody sees this as a coin flip but leans Radtke due to Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and recent losses. He notes Radtke's smart game plan against Blood Diamond and his clinch work. Cody expects Radtke to neutralize Semelsberger's striking with wrestling and cage control.

"It's a coin flip fight it's 50/50 to me but my brain does tell me radkey so even though I got to play a little chalk on it I guess I will."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke, citing Semelsberger's broken confidence and inability to deal with Radtke's lead left hook. He notes Semelsberger has been second-guessing himself and overthinking, while Radtke has a simple one-punch game. Connor thinks Semelsberger will just eat the left hook or try to avoid it without a clear answer.

"I'm taking Radtke. I think that left hook... I can't imagine that Semelsberger is going to come up with a confident, clear answer for the lead left hook."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Matthew Semelsberger as a dog, citing his knockdown power and experience. He worries about Semelsberger's mental toughness and tendency to let opponents back into fights, but believes Charles Radtke is still green and not worth laying a price on. Vreeland notes Semelsberger has won as a dog before.

"I'm going to reluctantly take semi the Jedi Matthew Semelsberger here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke is expected to do enough in the striking to get his offense off, then take the fight to the ground where he can find a finish in the first or second round.

wins inside distance, round 1-2
"I'm going to have to go with the grappler here and Radu can do a good enough job in the Striking R to get his own offense off but eventually get this fight into the grappling round where we should …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Paul agrees, citing Semelsberger's declining durability and takedown defense. He worries about Radtke's size disadvantage but thinks Radtke's wrestling and left hook can get the job done. Paul plans to include Radtke in parlays.

"Radtke is the pick for me and I'm sure he'll be on something not like a hard play a little bit more along the Deen you know a long parlay."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog, citing his reach advantage and ability to beat Jake Matthews. He criticizes Radtke's performance against Mike Malott and believes Semelsberger will finally get a TKO finish without fumbling. He notes Semelsberger is on a three-fight losing streak and has his back against the wall.

TKO win, underdog
"I'm taking that Underdog I'm taking the underdog of Matthew semelsberger this guy is a fum of fumblers we have to mention that okay"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing with Connor. He describes Semelsberger as deep in the shit, unable to figure out his game, and distractible. Zane notes Semelsberger got outstruck by Preston Parsons, who is straightforward, and that Radtke's simple left hook will be effective. He says 'I'm taking Radtke'.

"So I'm taking Radtke. I think that left hook... I can't imagine that Semelsberger is going to come up with a confident, clear answer for the lead left hook."
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (knee to the body) R1 4:47 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 14 of 27 51% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Charles Radtke 1 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 14 of 27 51% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Charles Radtke 1 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 14 of 27 51% 7 of 19 3 of 4 4 of 4 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Radtke 15 of 36 41% 5 of 19 4 of 10 6 of 7 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 14 of 27 51% 7 of 19 3 of 4 4 of 4 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Radtke 15 of 36 41% 5 of 19 4 of 10 6 of 7 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Prates vs. Charlie Radtke
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-238), Radtke (+195)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage next, and one of these two unheralded competitors will be forced to suffer their first UFC loss while the other will maintain either a seven- or nine-fight win streak. Victorious in his last six, Radtke (9-3, 2-0 UFC) puts that on the line against Brazilian striker Prates (18-6, 1-0 UFC), who has not lost since a One Championship appearance in 2019. Drawing the charge will be referee Blake Grice, and the intense showdown kicks off without a glove touch. Radtke switches stances several times to work his way forward, while Prates kicks at his foe’s knee to push him back. Radtke whips a low kick as Prates recoils his leg, and a Prates head kick bounces harmlessly off the guard. Radtke punches his way into a single-leg takedown entry, pushing “Carlao” against the fence and holding up a leg. With Prates bent over, Radtke bops Prates many times with short, annoying punches, and he breaks off and lands one heavy right hand. Prates nails his foe’s front calf with a kick, and after Radtke flies by with a kick, he scores his own leg kick. Radtke has another kick land with a thud, and he winds up everything into a right hook that flies by his opponent. Radtke crashes forward in pursuit of a single, and he lets it go and misses with an overhand right. Two punches from Radtke miss the mark, but a leg kick does connect. Prates bobs and weaves his way forward, and he has his head snapped back by a right hand. Prates blasts the front leg with a kick, and Radtke starts limping as swelling forms almost immediately. Prates leans back from the counter and tags “Chuck Buffalo” with a right, and he backs off as Radtke tries to let him have it. A fake takedown from Radtke is stifled when Prates pokes him in the eye, and Grice calls time and lets Radtke take about 20 seconds to blink it out. When they resume, Prates starts to stalk his man down, his hands low and allowing him to eat a right hand so he can throw punches from strange angles. Radtke sneaks in a left hand before his lead leg is kicked hard, and Prates measures him with a straight left hand and lets out a woo.
The Brazilian rips a knee to the liver as clean as can be, and Radtke hits the deck and is completely done. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and Grice waves off the fight.
The victorious “Carlao” goes over to Radtke’s corner, where he yells something at upcoming title challenger Belal Muhammad. With that crushing stoppage on the board, this is the first finish of the night and the first knockout in quite some time.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Charlie Radtke R1 4:47 via KO (Knee to the Body)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo leans Charles Radtke, but with low confidence. He notes that Radtke is a grappler who has shown good hands recently, while Prates is a dangerous striker but low volume. He thinks Radtke's forward pressure and takedowns could be key, but if he rushes in recklessly, he could get knocked out. He sees it as a close fight where Radtke's pressure might be the difference.

"I'm gonna lean Charlie here he is going to be the pick but the running in while I think he needs to do to win the fight I also think that can put him In Harm's Way"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charles Radtke as a big underdog to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Prates is overrated and notes that Prates was losing to Trevin Giles before a comeback KO. He believes Radtke can make it a brawl and potentially knock Prates out, though he acknowledges Prates has advantages in height, reach, and youth.

knockout round 1
"give me the dog here and racky in a fight that you know somebody should absolutely get served in this one but give me raky for the win how does he get it done I'll say I'll say I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Cody picks Radtke as an underdog, noting that Prates has low volume and questionable durability, as seen in his fight against Trevin Giles. Radtke is aggressive, has power, and is a BJJ black belt with multiple win conditions. Cody believes Radtke can pressure Prates, take him down, or knock him out. He sees value in the plus money.

"I gotta go Charlie raty Underdog money dude"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel is confident in Prates, citing his Muay Thai, reach, experience, and finishing ability. He compares Prates to Anderson Silva in terms of length and southpaw stance, and expects a highlight-reel knockout. He notes Radtke is well-rounded but not special anywhere, and that Prates' seasoning and physical advantages should prevail.

knockout
"I think that this is a perfect opponent for Carlos prates to come out here and get another highlight reel knockout"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Jacob is very confident in Charles Radtke, calling him the lock of the week. He praises Radtke's toughness, pressure, and grappling. He thinks Radtke will push Prates against the cage, take him down, and likely submit him. He notes that Prates has no plan B and relies on one-punch power, but Radtke has a good chin and will break him. Jacob also mentions that he predicted Prates' last fight correctly.

Charles Radtke wins by submission
"Chuck Buffalo is the lock of the week and there is a reason for that he is going to come in he is going to press this guy he is going to hug this guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates has extensive kickboxing experience and excellent takedown defense, which should allow him to stuff Radtke's takedowns and pick him apart on the feet. Radtke has power but is less technical. Prates should eventually land a knockout, though the -230 line is a bit wide given Radtke's danger.

knockout
"give me proess and proess by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted by Radtke at plus money but is nervous about laying the price on Prates. He notes Prates' finishing ability but also his low volume and the fact that he was losing to Giles before the knockout. Paul considers it a dogger pass but might take Radtke.

"it feels like a dogger pass would probably a pass for me I don't know if I'm gonna have the courage to pull the trigger on radkey here Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Prates because he is more effective at range on the feet, with 78 inches of reach in welterweight. He notes Radtke looked bad against Blood Diamond and though he has KO power, Prates is younger and on a good win streak including kickboxing. He predicts a second-round TKO for Prates.

Second-round TKO prediction
"I'm going to side with prattes here... second round TKO for um Carlos prattes"
TKO (punches) R1 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Gilbert Urbina 2 30 of 47 63% 33 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Gilbert Urbina 2 30 of 47 63% 33 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 16 of 38 42% 4 of 17 6 of 10 6 of 11 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Urbina 30 of 47 63% 23 of 40 0 of 0 7 of 7 27 of 43 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 16 of 38 42% 4 of 17 6 of 10 6 of 11 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Urbina 30 of 47 63% 23 of 40 0 of 0 7 of 7 27 of 43 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Angelo picks Gilbert Urbina, citing his cardio and pace as key factors. He notes that Urbina's takedown defense is a concern but believes his early pace will be too much for Radtke. He has Urbina in a parlay but only one bet to avoid overexposure.

Urbina included in a parlay
"Gilbert's going to be the pick here cuz I think the cardio is going to separate these two"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charles Radtke to win by second-round submission. He notes that Urbina's last win came against a compromised Orion Coy, and he has questions about Urbina's durability and cardio. Radtke has power in his hands and solid defensive grappling. Brady expects Urbina to have early success with takedowns, but Radtke will find the chin and knock him out. He thinks people are overrating Urbina and underrating Radtke.

second round, submission (TKO)
"I'm going to take racky here for the upset I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Cody picks Urbina, criticizing Radtke's limited skills and poor performance against Blood Diamond. He notes Urbina's youth, size advantage, and improving striking and wrestling. He expects Urbina to win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Urbina has range management and a strong top game, and should be able to grind out a finish. However, Radtke is a live underdog with good wrestling and power, and there are questions about his gas tank and durability. The host is not super confident but picks Urbina to win inside the distance.

Fight doesn't go to decision is a possibility.
"I'm going to go with arbina to pick up the victory inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Paul picks Urbina, highlighting the size difference and Radtke's inability to push around a bigger fighter. He notes Urbina's losses are to solid prospects and expects him to handle Radtke's pressure.

"I like Gilbert orina"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Urbina over Charles Radtke, predicting a second-round finish. He criticizes Radtke's performance against Blood Diamond, calling it pathetic, and compares Radtke to Ryan Koischeck. He believes Urbina will have similar success as he did against Koischeck, and notes Urbina's only losses are to Brian Battle and Sean Brady.

finish in round two
"I'm actually going to go with Gilbert urbina smoked to oryan Koski easily... I think he'll finish Charles radkey in round two."
WIN vs Mike Mathetha
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 44 of 94 46% 75 of 136 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Mike Mathetha 0 35 of 76 46% 63 of 112 1 of 6 16% 0 0 9:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 4 of 13 30% 9 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Mathetha 0 4 of 11 36% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:55
2 Charles Radtke 0 13 of 34 38% 24 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Mike Mathetha 0 20 of 39 51% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:43
3 Charles Radtke 0 27 of 47 57% 42 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Mike Mathetha 0 11 of 26 42% 20 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 44 of 94 46% 19 of 58 19 of 28 6 of 8 19 of 58 25 of 36 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 35 of 76 46% 31 of 72 4 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 59 8 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Charles Radtke 13 of 34 38% 2 of 17 8 of 12 3 of 5 6 of 22 7 of 12 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 20 of 39 51% 18 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 31 3 of 8 0 of 0
3 Charles Radtke 27 of 47 57% 15 of 30 9 of 14 3 of 3 11 of 26 16 of 21 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 11 of 26 42% 9 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 20 4 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mike Mathetha

Angelo is shooting his shot on Blood Diamond as a two-to-one underdog. He notes that Charlie Radtke is a big favorite but has questionable cardio and gets hit by regional-level fighters. If Blood Diamond can defend takedowns, his striking should be too much. Angelo plans to look for a KO prop at plus money when props drop.

Considering KO prop at plus money; win inside distance decision no action
"These odds are way too wide for a UFC debut with questionable cardio I'm going to shoot my shot here on blood diamond"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charlie Radtke but is not confident laying the price. He notes Radtke's good jiu-jitsu and submission skills, but worries he hasn't wrestled much. He thinks if Radtke gets takedowns, he will submit Blood Diamond. He predicts a second-round submission.

"give me a Charlie Rocky to win this fight I'll say he wins it by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mike Mathetha

Cody picks Mathetha as a value underdog, arguing that the line is inaccurate and that Radtke's wrestling may not be as effective as expected. He notes that Mathetha has a kickboxing background and could win if the fight stays standing. Cody is tempted by the plus money and sees this as a potential upset.

Three-to-one shoe bet on Mathetha
"it's blood diamond dude what are you doing what are you doing so uh Austin Lane not the PRP pick maybe Blood Diamond"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Levi picks Charlie Radtke but is not confident in the price. He thinks Radtke is overhyped and not as special as people claim. However, he gives Radtke the edge due to more MMA experience and offensive grappling. Levi notes that Mathetha has been off for over a year and could have improved his grappling, but until he sees it, he picks against him.

Odds mentioned: Radtke minus 345, Mathetha plus 280. Levi says no way he lays that price.
"I am going to pick Chuck Buffalo you know because until I see those improvements from Blood Diamond I'm not gonna make the Assumption of where blood diamonds Improvement level is grappling wise until I see it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke is a CFFC welterweight champion with a BJJ black belt, recently winning by submission. He closes distance well and uses trips and throws to get fights to the ground. Blood Diamond is a kickboxer who has been fed grapplers and is still seeking his first UFC win. Radtke should be competitive on the feet and then take the fight to the mat, working for a submission within the under 2.5 round mark. The pick is Radtke by submission.

under 2.5 rounds at -185
"Radke's going to be my pick... prediction is going to be Radke by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Paul picks Radtke, citing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes that Mathetha has poor takedown defense and that Radtke should be able to secure a submission. Paul likes the Radtke by submission prop and believes Radtke will win this fight even if he loses every other fight in the UFC.

Radtke by submission (+190)
"I think Radtke you know wins this fight by sub and then loses every other fight that he has in the promotion and then gets cut"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charlie Radtke over Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond), despite acknowledging that Radtke may not be UFC caliber. He notes that Mathetha has significant holes in his game, particularly in grappling, and is old (34-35) to make adjustments. Radtke has a win over Raheem Forrest, a regional prospect, and showed grappling ability by choking him out after getting rocked. He believes Radtke will outgrapple Mathetha and submit him in the first round.

submission in round 1
"I'm gonna go with Charlie Radke"
Francisco Prado - Fight History
LOSS vs Charles Radtke
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 24 of 47 51% 121 of 164 4 of 5 80% 0 0 9:07
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 66 43% 41 of 79 0 of 0 --- 2 2 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 7 of 11 63% 40 of 49 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:50
Francisco Prado 0 8 of 10 80% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Charles Radtke 0 5 of 8 62% 41 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
Francisco Prado 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
3 Charles Radtke 0 12 of 28 42% 40 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Francisco Prado 0 11 of 34 32% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 24 of 47 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 33 1 of 1 9 of 13
Francisco Prado 29 of 66 43% 16 of 46 9 of 12 4 of 8 17 of 45 1 of 3 11 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Francisco Prado 8 of 10 80% 2 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Radtke 5 of 8 62% 5 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 10 of 22 45% 7 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Charles Radtke 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 24 1 of 1 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 11 of 34 32% 7 of 25 3 of 6 1 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charlie Radtke, citing his athletic grappling, powerful striking, and controlling ground game. He notes Radtke's tendency to slow down and be hittable but believes he has more tools than Prado. He expects a decision win, acknowledging Prado's toughness and durability despite his losing streak.

"Charlie has more tools in the bag if he can keep his pace, if he can keep his cardio. I think he can win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady is not high on Prado, noting he is undersized for welterweight and has only one UFC win. He thinks Radtke will be the bigger, stronger, more physical fighter with wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He expects Radtke to take down Prado and win by decision, as Prado is durable and has never been finished.

decision
"Give me Radtke and Radtke by decision in the first fight of the night."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody also picks Prado, noting Radtke's low output and Prado's improved wrestling. He thinks Prado can scramble back to his feet and land damaging shots.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke based on his wrestling advantage and range tools. He notes that Prado's wrestling is terrible and Radtke can outwrestle him. He acknowledges Radtke's lack of durability but trusts his ability to control the fight with takedowns.

"I have to pick Radke to win it. Like by having any range tools by having, yeah, even just a check, a left hook that he likes to throw."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Daniel thinks Radtke has plateaued and is a finished product, while Prado is young, durable, and improving. He expects Prado to be too tough and enthusiastic.

"I'm going to go Francisco Prada to get back on track."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Radtke, believing he will dominate. He notes that Radtke is a full-sized welterweight with good cardio and fight IQ, while Prado is moving up and has not shown high-level skills. He thinks Radtke will win clear rounds, possibly by decision.

"I like Radke a lot here. And I think it's just going to be domination."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

James picks Radtke based on his grappling advantage, though he notes Radtke's weight cut issues. He expects a decision win via control.

"I'll pick Charles Raky via decision as of now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke's grappling and pressure should be enough to outwork Prado. Prado has a better gas tank and takedown defense than Radtke's last opponent, but Radtke's clinch and BJJ are strong. Prado's striking is his best path, but he often grapples unnecessarily. Radtke can grind out a decision, though the line is a bit steep for confidence.

Radtke wins by decision
"I still think he has a good enough shot to keeping this fight on his terms and that should lead to him grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Paul picks Prado as an underdog, believing his power and durability can overcome Radtke's low-volume wrestling. He thinks Prado can land a big shot or win a decision.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke over Francisco Prado. He notes that Prado has lost four in a row and is a bit basic with a Mike Tyson style that hasn't worked at welterweight. Radtke has KO power and looked good against Brenneman, with a wrestling advantage and improved stand-up training with Belal Muhammad. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Radtke.

"I'm going to pick him to win this one. I am."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing that his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Prado is durable but walks blindly into people, making him easy to take down. He acknowledges Radtke's chin issues but trusts his wrestling to secure the win.

"I'll take Radky for the wrestling advantage."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 47 of 77 61% 64 of 94 3 of 10 30% 1 0 6:49
Francisco Prado 0 56 of 105 53% 84 of 133 2 of 6 33% 0 1 2:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 7 of 9 77% 11 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:59
Francisco Prado 0 17 of 28 60% 36 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:04
2 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 24 of 43 55% 32 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:55
Francisco Prado 0 26 of 55 47% 32 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 16 of 25 64% 21 of 30 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:55
Francisco Prado 0 13 of 22 59% 16 of 25 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolay Veretennikov 47 of 77 61% 34 of 58 5 of 11 8 of 8 34 of 62 5 of 5 8 of 10
Francisco Prado 56 of 105 53% 32 of 78 21 of 24 3 of 3 34 of 75 15 of 17 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 7 of 9 77% 4 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 17 of 28 60% 8 of 19 8 of 8 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 6 4 of 9
2 Nikolay Veretennikov 24 of 43 55% 16 of 31 2 of 6 6 of 6 22 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1
Francisco Prado 26 of 55 47% 15 of 43 10 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 47 7 of 7 1 of 1
3 Nikolay Veretennikov 16 of 25 64% 14 of 21 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 7 of 9
Francisco Prado 13 of 22 59% 9 of 16 3 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 15 3 of 4 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prado (-148), Veretennikov (+124)

Round 1
Coming to the promotion two years ago with a head full of steam, then-21-year-old Prado (12-3, 1-3 UFC) has largely struggled, earning one victory among three deflating losses. He takes a much-needed step back in level of competition when he faces Veretennikov (12-6, 0-2 UFC), who lost on the 2021 season of the Contender Series and worked his way into the promotion with a trio of stoppages. Since then, not so much for the man fighting out of Kings MMA. The welterweight clash, a historic battle between Argentina and Kazakhstan, will be overseen by referee Jason Herzog. They clap hands to get started.
Prado marches his man down hurling a leg kick, and on the counter, he charges to tackle Veretennikov down to the ground. In the first 15 seconds, Prado has assumed half guard, keeping Veretennikov flat on his back while looping his left arm around the head for an arm-triangle choke setup. Prado is on half guard on the other side, and Veretennikov defends with a guillotine choke off his back. This is not a wise decision, as Prado cinches up the counter in the form of a Von Flue—or as we call it on the play-by-play, Von Preux—which forces a wild scramble. Prado spins around to north-south position, and he winds up taking Veretennikov’s back momentarily. Prado willingly turns over to his back to lace up a triangle choke, while Veretennikov comfortably sits on him landing body shots. Prado keeps his legs high even if they may not be quite long enough to lock it up from this position. He transitions to an armbar, and Veretennikov lifts him in the air and violently slams him on his face to break up the submission.
Prado appears to be stunned from the slam, and Veretennikov stands over him dropping down hammers until moving himself back into Prado’s guard. The strikes from above have caused some damage on Prado’s forehead, and he keeps his guard open until Veretennikov stands. Prado just stands back up to follow him, and he takes two stiff knees to the body when pushing forward. Veretennikov connects with two punches and a body kick, and he walks through ha left hand to work the body with several more strikes. Veretennikov spins with a wheel kick to the side of the dome, and he plants his feet and knees the Argentinian in the midsection once more. Prado looks for a takedown, and Veretennikov breaks out of the first effort. Prado transitions from double to single as he looks for a takedown with Veretennikov’s back on the fence, and Veretennikov defends the attempt and tries to counter-throw his adversary to the mat. Veretennikov gives him a few more knees to think about until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov

Round 2
The fighters get right to business to start off the second round. Prado appears to already be flagging a bit, while Veretennikov is sharp as a tack. He clips Prado with a short burst of punches, shaking up Prado but not forcing him to back again. Instead, Prado doggedly pursues a double, and he lifts Veretennikov up but cannot ground him. Prado is forced to disengage, and he measures a strong calf kick that forces Veretennikov to recoil his leg. Prado uses that success to land a few more strikes, and he allows Veretennikov to spin with a kick. Prado grabs him from behind and suplexes him, turning himself around to assume half guard while Veretennikov has an arm around his neck. Like the last round, this opens Veretennikov up to a Von Flue shoulder choke again.
Veretennikov release his own grip before getting trapped, and Prado blasts him in the face with an elbow that bounces his head off the canvas. Prado stays heavy, smothering Veretennikov with chest-to-chest pressure. Only lifting himself up to strike or set something up, Prado pursues the arm-triangle once more. Veretennikov explodes to turn out of the sub and power back to his feet, and Prado chases him upright. The ground strikes from Prado open a cut on the side of Veretennikov’s eye, but he pays it no mind as he slams his fist on Prado’s body. Prado retaliates with a six-punch flurry ending with one to the liver. Veretennikov shrugs them off and lets fly a high kick, hopping back to avoid another body shot but still taking some damage on the way. Prado dodges a high kick, eats a right hand and fires one back up top. Veretennikov scores a few knees, trips Prado up but does not ground him. They land blows at the same time, with Prado’s the heavier of the two. Veretennikov scores a single body kick before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado

Round 3
There is a glove touch to open the final frame. Prado surges into action, ignoring a low kick to loop a pair of punches over the top. Prado fakes up top to shoot in on the hips, getting hold of a single and lifting Veretennikov in the air. Veretennikov is able to turn him about mid-air to put the Argentinian on his back, but he is quick to bail on the grappling to stand up. Prado follows him with another takedown shot, abandoning to bash Veretennikov with an elbow and a thumping low kick that makes Veretennikov take a turn. Both men crash together letting fists fly, and Veretennikov tries to spin with a wheel kick but is so tired that Prado grips him from behind before the foot comes off the ground. Prado easily gets his foe down and advances to full mount with over three minutes left. Prado slashes down with 12-to-6 elbows, and he allows Veretennikov to turn partially so he can take his back. Prado attacks a choke before he gets a hook in, and he lets it go to drill down another elbow or two.
Veretennikov fights back to his feet, shaking Prado off his back, and he goes to the well with a failed spin kick that results him in getting taken down again. The two scramble, with Prado standing first and trying to get hold of another takedown from the side. Prado settles for a knee to the jaw with Veretennikov leaned over, and he drops down in pursuit of a single. Veretennikov stifles the attempt and looks for his own trip, kneeing Prado in the belly when he does not ground the Argentinian. Veretennikov jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and Prado takes advantage of this play by stepping over to half guard to set up a Von Preux again. Prado pulls his neck out and calms himself down with 20-ish seconds to go. Rather than go for broke and allow Veretennikov to get back up, he wraps up the fight with some moderate ground-and-pound. For the first time tonight, the fighters go the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)

The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Francisco Prado via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Angelo picks Francisco Prado despite being too small for welterweight, because he can exploit Veretennikov's wrestling holes. He notes Prado's power and durability, and loves the -140 odds, calling it a discount due to Prado's last loss. He plans to bet on Prado.

Loves the minus 140 odds and says he'll probably throw a bet or two on Francisco Prado.
"Francisco Praau is the pick. I love the minus 140 odds and honestly probably gonna throw a bet or two on Francisco Pra here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Big Brady picks Nikolay Veretennikov, questioning Francisco Prado's decision to move up to welterweight. He notes Veretennikov's reach, technical striking, and better volume, while Prado is undersized with poor wrestling. He predicts Veretennikov wins by decision, calling the line questionable.

Veretennikov by decision
"I'm going to take Nikolai Veritenikov to win this fight and win it by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

The host cites Veretennikov's experience and strength of schedule advantage, and believes he can thwart Prado's power punching approach. He expects a full mixed martial arts performance and a win on the scorecards.

"Look for Vera Tanakov to put together a full mixed martial arts performance here to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

The MMA Guru picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Francisco Prado, arguing that Prado is not a welterweight and is too small for the division. He notes Prado's reach disadvantage (69" vs 74") and lack of power, while Veretennikov is well-rounded, taller, and rangier. The Guru believes Prado's game plan is predictable as a shorter fighter, and Veretennikov will win by decision or TKO.

"I'm going to go with Veretnikov getting this one done over Francisco Prao."
LOSS vs Jake Matthews
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 68 of 184 36% 95 of 215 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Francisco Prado 0 59 of 146 40% 64 of 152 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
2 Jake Matthews 0 22 of 57 38% 39 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 18 of 41 43% 21 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:16
3 Jake Matthews 0 26 of 69 37% 33 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Francisco Prado 0 19 of 48 39% 21 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 68 of 184 36% 39 of 146 24 of 33 5 of 5 56 of 169 12 of 15 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 59 of 146 40% 17 of 92 19 of 28 23 of 26 47 of 132 11 of 13 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 20 of 58 34% 17 of 51 3 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 22 of 57 38% 5 of 34 9 of 12 8 of 11 18 of 52 3 of 4 1 of 1
2 Jake Matthews 22 of 57 38% 11 of 43 11 of 14 0 of 0 19 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 18 of 41 43% 5 of 25 4 of 7 9 of 9 13 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 26 of 69 37% 11 of 52 10 of 12 5 of 5 20 of 62 6 of 7 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 19 of 48 39% 7 of 33 6 of 9 6 of 6 16 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-225), Prado (+185)

Round 1
It may be shocking to some that Matthews (20-7, 13-7 UFC) is 30 years of age, but he will be entering into his 21st UFC outing as the main card opens up. “The Celtic Kid” will have to tangle with Argentinian gunslinger Prado (12-2, 1-2 UFC), who has 12 career wins with six by submission and the other six via knockout. The welterweights will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who plans on keeping things on the up-and-up following the glove touch. Matthews jabs his way forward, skirting away from a low kick early. Matthews follows a jab with a right hand, and he dips to dodge a looping hook. Matthews steps in to mark up Prado with a sharp right hand, and Prado kicks and flips himself over to get back to his feet. Both men meet in the middle and throw massive leather, and Prado gets stunned momentarily but is ready and willing to keep brawling if the mood fits them. Matthews peels back, instead measuring with long, straight punches. Prado lunges at him and tries to spin with a back fist, but the strike goes wide. Prado gets in a low kick but rips the body with a right hand, and the two clash into a clinch that allows Matthews to bust Prado in the chops with uppercuts. Matthews pushes off and takes a body shot on the way out. Matthews strikes first and last in a combination, and he lets Prado escape out the side so he can time a body kick. They proceed to pop one another with simultaneous hooks, and Prado keeps sitting down on sheer power. The leg kicks are effective for the Argentinian, who escapes danger by a matter of millimeters as the two swing bad intentions at one another’s skull. Matthews finds his target with a piercing right hand again and again, damaging Prado’s face but not drawing blood. Prado rushes forward to get hold of a body lock, and he lowers the Aussie to his back with a falling slam. Matthews absorbs an elbow to prompt him to stand up quickly, and he engages in a short but fierce slugfest where he does cut open Prado’s right eyebrow. As the punches continue to come from Matthews, he chases his foe down until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and it is Matthews who cuts the cage off right off the bat. Prado is lured into a high-amplitude swing fest, with Matthews the faster, more accurate of the two. Prado uses a standing elbow to frame off, only for Matthews to pounce and split a cut open on the bridge of the nose. Prado keeps Matthews honest with his haymakers, but Matthews is defter and able to keep Prado on his back foot. Prado’s left hook still gets in, and his takedown shot is shoved aside. Prado drives a knee on the jaw, and he gets driven back by a fierce left hand. Prado slings a hard leg kick, but it is one-and-done as Matthews has him backing away. Prado rips a left to the liver and fakes a spin so he can shoot for a takedown, but Matthews is wise to it and punches him in the face in response. Matthews intercepts Prado coming in with an uppercut, and he has his takedown defense ready to shut down an entry. Prado succeeds in planting Matthews back against the fence, grinding on the veteran and working on him with knees and short shots. Matthews wraps up a possible submission setup, and he pushes Prado away to his preferred range. Matthews snaps the head back with a litany of uppercuts, and he parries a front kick when backing away. Matthews’ hands are sharp and active, putting several together every time Prado hurls one big one. Another exchange leads to a cut on the top of Prado’s hairline on the left side, and blood streams immediately into his eye. The horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open the final frame, and Matthews fights behind a jab to get inside. This leads to huge punches from both sides, and Matthews’ land first and cleaner. Prado goes to the body with a kick as he backs away, and he loops a right hand that Matthews is able to dodge. Matthews’ volume punching is forcing Prado to fight conservatively, and it allows Matthews to pick up on the timing when Prado loads up at him. Matthews strings two or three together as Prado snaps one punch off, and he slaps Prado in the face with the instep of his foot. The Argentinian shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and his effort is tossed aside without much wasted movement. Matthews sits down on two heavy left hands, blasting Prado in the jaw and stunning him two times in a row. Prado closes in to clinch and get his head back, only to lean too far down to absorb a knee on the chin. Matthews gets a little space and starts rattling off short combinations, while Prado is relegated to single power swings. Matthews dips and pops Prado with two right hands after evading a massive blow, and he lets Prado overswing so he can further touch him. Matthews leans far enough down to avoid two punches, and he opens up with a right hand that snaps the head back before clinching Prado. Prado backs away out of it and shoots for a takedown, and the two clash heads. Matthews grinds on his man against the fencing as seconds tick off the clock, hanging on with knees to the body and thigh until the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)

The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Francisco Prado via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, citing his technical striking advantage and superior grappling. He notes that Prado is moving up a weight class and will be undersized. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Matthews in Australia. However, he acknowledges Matthews' inconsistency. Brady predicts a competitive decision win for Matthews.

"give me Matthews give me Matthews to win uh I think probably competitive decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing with Zane's analysis. He notes that Prado is a brawler who will walk into Matthews' shots. He adds that Matthews' back-foot boxing should work well. However, he hopes Prado can make it interesting by just swarming, but expects Matthews to win.

Same odds as Zane.
"I'm picking Matthews as well for the exact sort of framework you laid out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Matthews impressed with his ability to take opponents down in his last fight. He will mix striking and grappling to keep Prado on the defensive. The pick is for Matthews to win by decision.

decision
"I look for Matthews to put together a full body of work here to win this fight on the scorecards by mixing and striking and grappling to keep PR on the defensive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, noting that Prado has no range game and poor defense. Matthews can potshot from the back foot and avoid Prado's hooks. He thinks Matthews' speed and technical boxing will be too much. However, he dislikes the booking because Matthews is a gatekeeper who should be fighting prospects, not getting favorable matchups.

Matthews opened at -209, currently -221; Prado opened at +182, currently +192.
"I'm going to pick Jake Matthews."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 120 of 272 44% 120 of 272 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Francisco Prado 0 90 of 246 36% 91 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 27 of 60 45% 27 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 73 39% 29 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 50 of 110 45% 50 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 32 of 88 36% 33 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Zellhuber 0 43 of 102 42% 43 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 85 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 120 of 272 44% 87 of 228 25 of 36 8 of 8 117 of 268 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 90 of 246 36% 30 of 155 26 of 47 34 of 44 88 of 244 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 27 of 60 45% 14 of 41 9 of 15 4 of 4 27 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 29 of 73 39% 12 of 50 5 of 7 12 of 16 27 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 50 of 110 45% 42 of 100 8 of 10 0 of 0 48 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 32 of 88 36% 8 of 54 11 of 19 13 of 15 32 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Zellhuber 43 of 102 42% 31 of 87 8 of 11 4 of 4 42 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 29 of 85 34% 10 of 51 10 of 21 9 of 13 29 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Zellhuber as the more well-rounded fighter, citing his length, takedown defense, and ability to threaten submissions. He believes Zellhuber will avoid Prado's early storm and take over as Prado fades. He mentions a decision win is likely but also considers a no action bet.

decision no action bet (if Prado wins by KO, bet pays; if Zellhuber wins decision, refund)
"zel Huber should be able to avoid the early storm should be able to stay on the outside let PR exhaust himself and then take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He notes that Zellhuber is a hometown fighter from Mexico City and has a height and reach advantage. He likes Zellhuber's volume, cardio, and sneaky power and submission game. He is not high on Francisco Prado, who has fought lower-level competition. Brady expects the fight to be competitive but thinks Zellhuber will do enough to win a decision.

Fight goes to decision
"I like him to win the decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody picks Prado by KO in round 1, having bet that prop at +1300. He notes Zellhuber's chin is sketchy and he keeps his chin up, making him hittable. He thinks Prado's power could cause problems, though he admits Zellhuber has more intangibles. He is not touching the moneyline.

Prado by KO in round 1 (+1300)
"I'll pick per for the purpose of a pick I'll pick uh pra as well but uh but yeah I'm not going to be shocked if he loses on the money line"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host sees Zellhuber as an improving prospect with a rangy striking style and slick jiu-jitsu. He believes Zellhuber's footwork and straight shots will keep Prado from getting inside the pocket, and even if Prado tries to take it to the ground, his wrestling isn't good enough. He predicts Zellhuber will touch up Prado, possibly get a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

Possible late finish
"I think we see Z Huer touch up pra maybe get a late finish but I ultimately think zahu wins on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Paul picks Zellhuber, citing his superior volume, speed, length, and developing ground game. He notes Zellhuber's cast-iron chin and ability to take a punch to give back two or three. He believes Zellhuber's volume and range will overtake Prado, and he may mix in takedowns and grappling. He is backing Zellhuber.

"zel Huber should be the clear favorite which he is and uh I'm gonna be backing him"
TKO (punches) R1 4:05 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Prado 0 14 of 33 42% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ottman Azaitar 1 38 of 57 66% 42 of 61 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Prado 0 14 of 33 42% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ottman Azaitar 1 38 of 57 66% 42 of 61 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Prado 14 of 33 42% 6 of 20 7 of 11 1 of 2 12 of 28 2 of 5 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 38 of 57 66% 31 of 46 2 of 6 5 of 5 17 of 30 1 of 1 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Prado 14 of 33 42% 6 of 20 7 of 11 1 of 2 12 of 28 2 of 5 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 38 of 57 66% 31 of 46 2 of 6 5 of 5 17 of 30 1 of 1 20 of 26
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.

does not go the distance at -350, parlayable
"the pick's gonna be Francisco because I think it just has more tools in the bag and he also wasn't unconscious eight months ago lying on the Octagon floor"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.

First round knockout
"I'm gonna pick a zytar with little to no confidence um I think somebody's getting knocked out here ... I'm gonna take uh Optimus Eye Tattoo do the knocking out I'll say he hits the the massive head of Prado …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.

under 1.5 rounds; live bet on Prado if he survives first round
"I think I'm leaning towards the zaytard I think it's gonna be an absolute scrub under one and a half type fight someone's probably likely getting knocked out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.

Azaitar by knockout; under 1.5 rounds
"give me a zytar buy knockout but under one and a half probably the best way to go about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.

looking for Prado props towards the under
"I'm gonna back the kid here I think ottman is a little bit stiff rigid and is striking... I'll go with youth in Prado"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.

first round KO
"I think he's going to be more confident in the pocket than azitar and I think he's going to result in the first round KO for him"
LOSS vs Jamie Mullarkey
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 59 of 104 56% 78 of 126 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:47
Francisco Prado 0 28 of 75 37% 31 of 78 0 of 2 0% 1 1 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 15 of 20 75% 32 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
Francisco Prado 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 19 of 35 54% 21 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Francisco Prado 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 59 of 104 56% 28 of 70 13 of 14 18 of 20 49 of 92 0 of 0 10 of 12
Francisco Prado 28 of 75 37% 18 of 58 4 of 10 6 of 7 28 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 15 of 20 75% 10 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 9
Francisco Prado 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamie Mullarkey 25 of 49 51% 11 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 25 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 13 of 38 34% 7 of 28 1 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 19 of 35 54% 7 of 22 4 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 32 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 8 of 25 32% 6 of 21 2 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.

"the pick's gonna be Jamie malarkey I am not betting on Jamie Malarkey especially not at these odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.

second round knockout
"I'm leaning Malarkey in that second round to get that knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.

"gotta go with Jamie cut the Malarkey but again it's just like the kind of price tag you don't overly want to pay"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.

"I don't have a lot to add to that breakdown. I think we tend we have a way we tend to go with certified can crushers."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.

"I think we'll see Malarkey evade those big shots I think we'll see Malarkey look to get his grappling going to try to keep protostatic try to stay away and nullify that big knockout power of Prado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.

"I'm with you malarkey"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.

second round KO via knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Jamie Malarkey TKO in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.

"Francisco Prado says me talking about it. He's just gonna get mopped."
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charlie Radtke, citing his athletic grappling, powerful striking, and controlling ground game. He notes Radtke's tendency to slow down and be hittable but believes he has more tools than Prado. He expects a decision win, acknowledging Prado's toughness and durability despite his losing streak.

"Charlie has more tools in the bag if he can keep his pace, if he can keep his cardio. I think he can win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady is not high on Prado, noting he is undersized for welterweight and has only one UFC win. He thinks Radtke will be the bigger, stronger, more physical fighter with wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He expects Radtke to take down Prado and win by decision, as Prado is durable and has never been finished.

decision
"Give me Radtke and Radtke by decision in the first fight of the night."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody also picks Prado, noting Radtke's low output and Prado's improved wrestling. He thinks Prado can scramble back to his feet and land damaging shots.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke based on his wrestling advantage and range tools. He notes that Prado's wrestling is terrible and Radtke can outwrestle him. He acknowledges Radtke's lack of durability but trusts his ability to control the fight with takedowns.

"I have to pick Radke to win it. Like by having any range tools by having, yeah, even just a check, a left hook that he likes to throw."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Radtke, believing he will dominate. He notes that Radtke is a full-sized welterweight with good cardio and fight IQ, while Prado is moving up and has not shown high-level skills. He thinks Radtke will win clear rounds, possibly by decision.

"I like Radke a lot here. And I think it's just going to be domination."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Daniel thinks Radtke has plateaued and is a finished product, while Prado is young, durable, and improving. He expects Prado to be too tough and enthusiastic.

"I'm going to go Francisco Prada to get back on track."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

James picks Radtke based on his grappling advantage, though he notes Radtke's weight cut issues. He expects a decision win via control.

"I'll pick Charles Raky via decision as of now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke's grappling and pressure should be enough to outwork Prado. Prado has a better gas tank and takedown defense than Radtke's last opponent, but Radtke's clinch and BJJ are strong. Prado's striking is his best path, but he often grapples unnecessarily. Radtke can grind out a decision, though the line is a bit steep for confidence.

Radtke wins by decision
"I still think he has a good enough shot to keeping this fight on his terms and that should lead to him grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Paul picks Prado as an underdog, believing his power and durability can overcome Radtke's low-volume wrestling. He thinks Prado can land a big shot or win a decision.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke over Francisco Prado. He notes that Prado has lost four in a row and is a bit basic with a Mike Tyson style that hasn't worked at welterweight. Radtke has KO power and looked good against Brenneman, with a wrestling advantage and improved stand-up training with Belal Muhammad. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Radtke.

"I'm going to pick him to win this one. I am."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing that his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Prado is durable but walks blindly into people, making him easy to take down. He acknowledges Radtke's chin issues but trusts his wrestling to secure the win.

"I'll take Radky for the wrestling advantage."