vs
-110 +118
UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026 · Featherweight · Completed
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Cub Swanson
4.79 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.0 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nate Landwehr
5.63 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.83 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Cub Swanson
Moneyline
FanDuel -110
KO/TKO
BetRivers +290
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
Polymarket +290
Nate Landwehr
Moneyline
Caesars +118
KO/TKO
BetRivers +380
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +350
Cub Swanson - Fight History
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
TKO R1 4:06 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
KO (punch) R3 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 99 of 158 62% 114 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Billy Quarantillo 0 97 of 237 40% 108 of 249 3 of 11 27% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 39 of 57 68% 40 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 37 of 88 42% 37 of 88 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
2 Cub Swanson 0 40 of 69 57% 54 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 105 36% 49 of 117 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
3 Cub Swanson 1 20 of 32 62% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Billy Quarantillo 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 99 of 158 62% 74 of 127 13 of 18 12 of 13 95 of 154 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 97 of 237 40% 65 of 188 20 of 32 12 of 17 91 of 222 6 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 39 of 57 68% 23 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 37 of 88 42% 22 of 66 6 of 10 9 of 12 37 of 87 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 40 of 69 57% 35 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 36 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 105 36% 31 of 91 6 of 12 1 of 2 32 of 91 6 of 14 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 20 of 32 62% 16 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 22 of 44 50% 12 of 31 8 of 10 2 of 3 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.

Considering over 1.5 rounds and plus 3.5 spread on Cub Swanson.
"For pick purposes... I am going to lean Billy but there's two bets... I'm going to hammer the over cuz I do think this fight's going to go to decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.

"I'll take Billy Q here I'll take Billy q and I think he wins this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.

"I got Billy it feels like I'm going to have to trust Billy a little more this week than I'd like to."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to pick him too. If nothing else, I'm going to do it for the old man out there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.

"I'm goingon go with Cub Swanson for the upset"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.

"I'm going to go with the underdog in this one I'm going to go with Cub Swanson I think he's got more knockout upside early."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"cornello has the Relentless and smothering grappling style to cause Cub Swanson a lot of trouble obviously Swanson will be the better Striker here but look for this corano to crowd his space eventually jumping on the back of Cub …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.

"I have a little bit of concern with Billy I I mean I guess the one thing that keeps his Pace off is when his opponent's able to wrestle him and I really don't think Cub Swanson's going to be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.

body shot TKO in round two
"I'm going to lean towards Cub Swanson I could even see a body shot TKO I know I predict a body shot TKO nearly every card but this is the one I'm predicting for this card body shot TKO Cubs …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to take Cub. I just don't think Quarantillo is a good enough wrestler for me to pick him to out grapple Cub."
LOSS vs Andre Fili
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 111 55% 90 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Cub Swanson 0 67 of 147 45% 70 of 151 2 of 11 18% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Andre Fili 0 30 of 51 58% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Cub Swanson 0 31 of 70 44% 33 of 73 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 111 55% 43 of 86 7 of 11 12 of 14 53 of 101 9 of 10 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 67 of 147 45% 49 of 118 13 of 22 5 of 7 52 of 126 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 31 64% 9 of 18 3 of 4 8 of 9 18 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 42 42% 12 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 12 of 29 41% 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 35 51% 14 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 30 of 51 58% 23 of 41 4 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 31 of 70 44% 23 of 58 5 of 8 3 of 4 24 of 61 7 of 9 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

"I think Fili because he's younger, a little faster... I still side with him here but the line is again..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson here to have like a Robbie Lawler vs Nico Price type retirement moment where he goes out there knocks out Fely puts his gloves down."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

over 2.5 rounds at -110
"I will pick him to win this fight though... I think it's ultimately uh phy who ends wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

"I think it's a pretty clear dogger pass, Cub Swanson for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Andre Philly... TKO"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 0 77 of 156 49% 107 of 195 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Hakeem Dawodu 0 95 of 176 53% 129 of 224 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 56 51% 29 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cub Swanson 0 28 of 51 54% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 55 52% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Cub Swanson 0 26 of 63 41% 32 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Hakeem Dawodu 0 37 of 65 56% 52 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 77 of 156 49% 41 of 112 27 of 31 9 of 13 59 of 135 18 of 21 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 95 of 176 53% 41 of 104 29 of 37 25 of 35 79 of 158 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 23 of 42 54% 11 of 25 8 of 10 4 of 7 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 56 51% 9 of 28 8 of 9 12 of 19 29 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 28 of 51 54% 19 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 39 10 of 12 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 55 52% 13 of 33 10 of 13 6 of 9 20 of 44 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 26 of 63 41% 11 of 45 11 of 13 4 of 5 18 of 54 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 37 of 65 56% 19 of 43 11 of 15 7 of 7 30 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Dawodu based on age and speed, noting Swanson looked old in his last fight. He acknowledges Swanson could win via takedowns and decision, but leans Dawodu.

"dawood is going to be the pick here but that is based purely on age and speed"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to knock out Cub Swanson in the second round. He notes Swanson's age (39) and recent durability issues, especially in the Jonathan Martinez fight where he was hurt to the head, body, and legs. He believes Dawodu's mixing of strikes will wear down Swanson and lead to a finish. He expects this to be Swanson's retirement fight.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Akeem to knock out Swanson here um probably second round I think it's going to be attritional"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody is torn on this fight. He notes Cub Swanson is nearing 40 and coming off a brutal loss to Jonathan Martinez, but also has a history of pulling off upsets. He criticizes Hakeem Dawodu's low output and lack of finishing ability, but acknowledges Cub's age and damage. He ultimately decides to pass on betting, saying he has other underdogs he prefers.

"I don't know if I'm gonna get there I'm taking some other underdogs on the car I'm not supposed to send it here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

James picks Dawodu, believing Swanson is past his prime. He thinks Dawodu is the better striker now with better durability, though he notes Dawodu's chin is questionable. James sees little path for Swanson to win, as he doesn't think Swanson can grapple or out-strike Dawodu. He mentions Swanson could land a knockout due to his unorthodox style, but overall favors Dawodu clearly.

"I think Swanson's past it... I think Dawodu is the clear side in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Dawodu is a technical striker who uses combination striking and kicks. Swanson is 40 and on a 3-6 run over his last nine, with wins over sketchy competition. Dawodu should land the more impactful strikes and get the nod from judges. However, Swanson's unorthodox style could make it closer than the odds suggest.

"I still feel like dawado should be able to do what he needs to do to get his hand raised I just want none of that chalky price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Cub Swanson but with low confidence. He thinks the line is accurate and would prefer Dawodu at a better price. He sees Cub having a puncher's chance and notes that if Dawodu fights at his usual low volume, Cub could outwork him and eke out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident and has other underdogs he'd rather bet.

"I suppose I will select Cub for the purposes of this show but I have other underdogs that I'm wasting money on this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson, citing Swanson's accumulated damage and small size for featherweight. He notes Dawodu's strength and clinch work, predicting he will hurt Swanson to the body with knees and get a finish in the third round. He references Swanson's past body-shot losses to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Max Holloway.

Finish in the third round by knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Hakeem dawa do over Cub Swanson"
TKO (leg kick) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 51 of 79 64% 60 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 2 62 of 102 60% 66 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 31 of 50 62% 38 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 1 33 of 59 55% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:16
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 20 of 29 68% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 1 29 of 43 67% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 51 of 79 64% 10 of 35 9 of 10 32 of 34 48 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 62 of 102 60% 40 of 77 15 of 18 7 of 7 37 of 64 12 of 14 13 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 31 of 50 62% 5 of 23 5 of 6 21 of 21 29 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 33 of 59 55% 21 of 45 10 of 12 2 of 2 21 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 14
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 29 68% 5 of 12 4 of 4 11 of 13 19 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 29 of 43 67% 19 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.

"i'm going to take ciacatse to win by a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.

dogger pass (betting recommendation)
"for our last show in the studio i'll label this one a dogger pass dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.

"i'm gonna go with giga to land the harder shots the more impactful shots and i think he's gonna announce himself as a contender at 145 pounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.

Giga Chikadze by decision at +170
"I like giga here it's crazy that the line is continuing to move towards the cub swanson side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.

"yeah not a great lean either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna pick giga chickety to shop at those legs land good shots and just have cubs cub swanson limping around for the entire fight"
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
KO (punches) R2 1:52 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 46 of 66 69% 51 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Pineda 0 21 of 45 46% 40 of 65 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 31 of 47 65% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Daniel Pineda 0 16 of 30 53% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:08
2 Cub Swanson 1 15 of 19 78% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Pineda 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 46 of 66 69% 35 of 51 7 of 11 4 of 4 37 of 54 3 of 3 6 of 9
Daniel Pineda 21 of 45 46% 9 of 28 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 31 of 47 65% 23 of 36 4 of 7 4 of 4 23 of 36 3 of 3 5 of 8
Daniel Pineda 16 of 30 53% 6 of 17 2 of 3 8 of 10 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 15 of 19 78% 12 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 5 of 15 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.

Pineda inside the distance +140
"i'm going to take pineda to win by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.

submission win
"imma go with pineda to get his 20th submission win i think he catches cub somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; Pineda inside the distance, likely second round
"i'm taking pineda via finnish probably second round... i truly think that he'll be able to get swanson down time and time again and get that damage in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.

"i'm gonna go with cub swanson getting the job done against daniel pineda i like daniel pineda but i think people are just looking at his herbert burns win"
Nate Landwehr - Fight History
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
TKO R1 4:06 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
KO R3 0:27 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 63 of 155 40% 65 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 1 67 of 131 51% 67 of 131 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 18 of 46 39% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 0 27 of 43 62% 27 of 43 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:01
2 Nate Landwehr 0 43 of 103 41% 43 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nate Landwehr 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 1 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 63 of 155 40% 54 of 142 7 of 9 2 of 4 63 of 153 0 of 2 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 67 of 131 51% 41 of 100 12 of 14 14 of 17 64 of 124 2 of 3 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 18 of 46 39% 14 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 27 of 43 62% 14 of 29 3 of 3 10 of 11 25 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 43 of 103 41% 38 of 96 4 of 6 1 of 1 43 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 33 of 64 51% 20 of 47 9 of 11 4 of 6 33 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 2
3 Nate Landwehr 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.

Cannot bet on Charrière due to unreliability of French fighters.
"Morgan's the pick. I'm very confident in that. But, I think we've learned you can't bet on them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.

decision
"I'll take Char to win this fight. I'll take it to win by decision. Hate the line, but I hate most lines on this card."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.

"I think you have to pick Charia here, but I like it. ... It's a great fight and it'll be a thriller because Landware won't ever give Charia space."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.

"Sherriier's slow pace striking approach caught up with him last time around as he came up short against Nathaniel Wood. And that could come back to haunt him here against Nate the Train, but I think ultimately we'll see Sherriier …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Morgan Sharier. I reckon he gets this win and then they look to put him on the Paris card. I think he'll get a TKO win over Nate Lamwear here in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.

"I think this is a good reasonable step back. ... I think you have to pick Charia here."
LOSS vs Dooho Choi
TKO (elbows) R3 3:21 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dooho Choi 0 25 of 67 37% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Nate Landwehr 0 78 of 116 67% 114 of 157 4 of 5 80% 0 0 7:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dooho Choi 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Nate Landwehr 0 40 of 66 60% 40 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Dooho Choi 0 12 of 30 40% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Nate Landwehr 0 23 of 29 79% 26 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:00
3 Dooho Choi 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 21 71% 48 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dooho Choi 25 of 67 37% 13 of 47 9 of 15 3 of 5 15 of 55 10 of 12 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 78 of 116 67% 61 of 98 9 of 9 8 of 9 62 of 99 4 of 4 12 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dooho Choi 9 of 25 36% 2 of 11 4 of 10 3 of 4 6 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 40 of 66 60% 32 of 57 4 of 4 4 of 5 38 of 64 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dooho Choi 12 of 30 40% 7 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 23 7 of 7 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 23 of 29 79% 15 of 21 5 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Dooho Choi 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 15 of 21 71% 14 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 11 0 of 0 9 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Doo Ho Choi vs. Nate Landwehr
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Landwehr (-142), Choi (+120)

Round 1
Strange card placement aside, this featherweight brawl was one the UFC brass considered guaranteed fireworks. It’s not a bird or a plane, it’s “The Train” Landwehr (18-5, 5-3 UFC). Standing across the cage from him will be “The Korean Superboy” Choi (15-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC), and referee Chris Tognoni is as ready as anyone else for this one to go down. Before they swing for the bleachers, the strikers touch ‘em up. Landwehr practically runs into Choi’s hand, coming out so fired up. It is Choi who lands first, blasting Landwehr in the face with a surprise uppercut. Choi wraps a right hand around the guard, and he knocks Landwehr to a knee with a massive left hook. Landwehr bounces back and is in front of Choi, but Choi is attacking while Landwehr’s first strike of the fight is a stomping kick to the knee. Choi scores a leg kick and puts a few punches behind it, shaking “The Train” up. Landwehr tries to get a little space with a front kick as blood trickles from the inside corners of both eyebrows, and Choi crashes towards him with a blistering uppercut. Choi backs off with a leg kick, and he digs a left to the body and allows Landwehr to shoot on him so he can push Landwehr to his knees. Choi takes his back but does not try to get his hooks in. When Landwehr adjusts, Choi suddenly wraps his legs around his foe’s waist and to keep him on the canvas. Choi sits down comfortably and allows his opponent to spin around so they can stand up together. Choi drives a knee to the midsection when Landwehr stands, and he walks the Tennessee native down to hurt him with a right hand and then an uppercut. Landwehr tries to pitch another front kick, and Choi rings his bell with a painful uppercut. Choi drops down, absorbs a knee and stands up tall and bangs the top of his head off Landwehr’s chin. Choi marches forward fearlessly, landing punches on either side of the head while Landwehr is stuck keeping his guard up most of the time. Choi goes to the body, and Landwehr strikes back with a right hand. Choi knocks Landwehr’s head back like a Pez dispenser with a nasty uppercut, and Landwehr closes in to clinch and get his bearings. Landwehr scores a short strike on the inside, and he pushes out of the tie-up using a knee. Choi dings him with one last left, and the one-sided round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 2
Choi offers a glove touch when Landwehr rushes at him to begin the second stanza, and they trade hands early with Choi landing first, last and much faster. Choi hammers the front leg with a kick, throwing Landwehr off-balance, and he uses his jab to set up power strikes. Choi connects with a low kick, and Landwehr ties him up and leans against him on the cage for a time. Choi spins him about, takes an elbow and breaks off. Choi boxes him up, mixing up the straight punches to the head and body. When Landwehr comes at him, Choi chops down his front leg. Landwehr keeps moving after taking the kick, bopping the South Korean in the nose with a spinning back elbow. Choi allows him to complete his rotation so he can hurl “The Train” to the floor like side of beef. Choi steps into full mount with ease, and he thinks about gripping a choke and lets it go to hit Landwehr in the back of the head. Landwehr scrambles to escape the precarious position, but he ends up getting flattened out on his stomach while Choi smacks him upside the head. Landwehr does not settle for staying flat for long, and Choi stretches him out but is not attempting much else in the way of submissions. Choi gets both hooks in and does not want to set up the body triangle so he can back out of this, and he lets Landwehr follow him so he can suddenly tackle the former M-1 champ down to the canvas. Choi lands in half guard and decides against taking advantage of the position, instead bailing on it and standing up. Landwehr follows immediately and pushes Choi to the fencing, but the South Korean is quick to turn him about. Two clubbing strikes from Landwehr land right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 3
The fighters clap hands, and Landwehr throws caution to the wind immediately. Landwehr hurls huge punches, with haymakers that land flush on the side of Choi’s dome. Choi laughs them off and swings back just as hard, but faster. Landwehr backs himself up to the fence in hopes of goading Choi towards him, but he has to settle for following Choi. As Landwehr gets as reckless as can be, Choi hits an easy takedown and advances immediately to side control. Choi wraps up Landwehr’s left arm between his legs to lock down a crucifix, and he hammers down a few elbows before Landwehr sits up. Choi uses his body weight to keep Landwehr stuck in the bad place, and he pounds on Landwehr’s face with fists when elbows are not the right strike. Choi draws further blood as he bludgeons “The Train,” with Landwehr’s bucks and twists thwarted each and every turn. Choi slashes down with methodical elbows, and Tognoni asks for Landwehr to improve his position. Choi punches Landwehr several times in the mouth, and Landwehr groans and grunts. With Tognoni watching on closely, Choi hammers the nail with a final barrage of elbows. Tognoni waves the fight off, and Landwehr is disappointed but not about to cry foul after getting beaten up for the better part of three rounds. Winner of two in a row, “The Korean Superboy” announces himself as a renewed force in the talent-rich featherweight division.

The Official Result
Doo Ho Choi def. Nate Landwehr R3 3:21 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Angelo picks Nate Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and takedowns against Choi's poor takedown defense. He expects Landwehr to shoot a million takedowns and grind out a win. However, he notes Landwehr is chinny and 36, and Choi has power, so he will probably avoid betting on this fight due to red flags.

Probably avoid betting, lots of red flags
"Nate lare is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr, believing his aggressive pressure will overwhelm Choi. He notes Choi's finesse style and vulnerability to pressure fighters. He expects a violent fight and suggests it won't go to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"Nate the train Landwehr, the official pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr based on confidence and momentum. He notes that Choi went eight years without a win and looked mentally fragile, while Landwehr is a dog who thrives on chaos. Connor believes Landwehr will force a war and that Choi's defense and confidence are not up to the task.

Landwehr opened at -164, currently -133; Choi opened at +128, currently +119. Connor thinks the odds should not be getting closer and favors Landwehr.
"Nate Landwehr is who Michael Chandler thinks he is. He's really about that shit."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, citing that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may be compromised after getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. He notes Landwehr is solid everywhere, especially on the feet, and has underrated submission skills with two of his last four wins by submission. He likes the number on Landwehr and sees him as a good candidate for a club-and-sub.

"I kick off the main card give me the train Nate ler D Choy best days are behind him even though he he did get a win probably since since I said that landar getting the job done um pretty …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dooho Choi

Daniel picks Choi to upset Landwehr, citing Choi's improved cardio and technique since his return. He believes Choi's clean boxing and experience in wars will overcome Landwehr's attrition style. He predicts a knockout, noting Landwehr gets hurt in every fight.

by KO
"I actually think Duho is going to come out here and knock out Nate Lander and shock a lot of people."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, emphasizing that people sleep on Landwehr's submission skills, noting his nice darce chokes and front headlock game. He also points out that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may not be as good as it used to be, as evidenced by getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. Fox believes Choi is a one-dimensional power puncher without a steel chin, so he takes Landwehr all day.

"yeah I think people sleep on his submission skills too uh like two out of his last four wins are by submission um you know he's got nice darus chokes front headlock kind of stuff he's a he's a good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Lucrative James picks Nate Landwehr to win inside the distance, citing his grappling upside, cardio advantage, and higher level of competition. He acknowledges the volatility due to both fighters being hittable, but believes Landwehr's experience and durability will prevail. He suggests looking at props like TKO or submission in rounds 2 or 3.

wins inside the distance, wins by TKO, wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think Nate land will will win in round two or round three... Nate to win via TKO maybe Nate to win inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dooho Choi

Choi has the technical striking advantage and confidence from knocking out Bill Algeo earlier this year. He will counter Landwehr off his back foot and find a big shot within one and a half rounds to get a knockout victory.

knockout within 1.5 rounds
"I do have to lean with the technical striking advantages of Troy and seeing the confidence that he probably gained from knocking out Bill alio earlier this year he probably is going to be able to counter lanor off his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Paul picks Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and ability to break opponents. He notes Choi's accuracy but thinks Landwehr's chaos will be too much. He expects a fun fight and believes Landwehr wins more often than not.

"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to get done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The MMA Guru picks Nate Landwehr, believing pressure breaks Dooho Choi. He notes Choi can be pressured and broken, and while Choi could catch Landwehr early, Landwehr's recovery is good. He expects Landwehr to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds, leading to a TKO win or a D'Arce choke.

Nate Landwehr wins by TKO or submission (D'Arce choke)
"I'm gonna go with Nate lambwe pressure breaks dooho choy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Zane agrees, citing Landwehr's self-belief and Choi's lack of confidence. He notes that Choi's defense has always been poor and that Landwehr will bring the chaos that Choi struggles with. Zane also points out that Choi's win over Bill Algeo was against a fading opponent, while Landwehr is a proven tough out.

"Nate Landwehr all day."
WIN vs Jamall Emmers
KO (punches) R1 4:43 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 1 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamall Emmers 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 1 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamall Emmers 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 37 of 76 48% 34 of 70 3 of 5 0 of 1 24 of 62 9 of 10 4 of 4
Jamall Emmers 39 of 78 50% 24 of 59 13 of 17 2 of 2 36 of 74 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 37 of 76 48% 34 of 70 3 of 5 0 of 1 24 of 62 9 of 10 4 of 4
Jamall Emmers 39 of 78 50% 24 of 59 13 of 17 2 of 2 36 of 74 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Angelo picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to the odds and Nate Landwehr's forward pressure. He notes Emmers is a calculated striker with good takedown defense, but Landwehr's relentless pressure could cause problems. He goes back and forth on whether Emmers should be a 2-to-1 favorite, ultimately sticking with Emmers but not fully confident.

"I'm still picking emers I'm staring at the odds though he's a two to one favorite and I just haven't made peace with that just yet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He notes Emmers has a reach advantage, good striking with leg kicks, and elite takedown defense. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Emmers is the better striker, though Landwehr is tough and can eat shots. Brady sees a competitive decision win for Emmers.

"give me Jamal emers to kick it off with a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Cody picks Emmers despite being a fan of Landwehr, citing Emmers' speed, lateral movement, and wrestling. He worries about Landwehr's durability and recklessness, and thinks Emmers can pick him apart from the outside. He also notes a potential weight cut issue for Emmers but still favors him.

"gotta go with Jamal emers this time"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Daniel Vreeland picks Jamall Emmers but with hesitation due to the price (-220). He acknowledges Emmers' superior skills and athleticism but worries about his mental consistency and decision-making (e.g., leg lock exchange with Pat Sabatini). He thinks Emmers should win if he stays focused, but notes Landwehr's pressure and durability could make it tough. He prefers to pass or look at props.

"I think Emmer's way more clean with his boxing technique faster with the hands but I could just see Nate making this a really hard fight for Jamal"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Emmers has speed, agility, and wrestling but has shown poor fight IQ (e.g., striking with Julian Rosa after grappling success). Landwehr's constant forward pressure and durability could trouble Emmers. If Emmers uses his wrestling and counters, he should win, but his tendency to brawl is a risk. Prediction: Emmers by decision, but not a confident bet.

"I'm still going to pick him to win I think it's going to be tough for him to put LW away I'm going to take emeris Em by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Paul is tempted by Landwehr's dog mentality and plus money, but acknowledges Emmers' skill advantage. He makes a shoey bet with Cody, taking Landwehr at 2-to-1 odds, showing some faith in Landwehr's ability to out-tough Emmers.

"I want the plus 180 dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

The host picks Jamall Emmers to knock out Nate Landwehr in the first round. He believes Landwehr's chin is suspect, citing his fights against Austin Lingo and David Onama where he got wobbled. He thinks Emmers is underrated, with wins over quality opponents, and has the reach, speed, and patience to land a clean shot. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I reckon Jamal emers has gone knock him out in the first my honest on this fight Jamal emers knocks him out in the first"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 88 of 184 47% 88 of 184 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Nate Landwehr 0 74 of 195 37% 74 of 195 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Landwehr 0 12 of 44 27% 12 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Ige 1 41 of 78 52% 41 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Nate Landwehr 0 30 of 69 43% 30 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dan Ige 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Nate Landwehr 0 32 of 82 39% 32 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 88 of 184 47% 61 of 143 19 of 31 8 of 10 78 of 169 6 of 8 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 74 of 195 37% 54 of 161 13 of 24 7 of 10 55 of 168 18 of 24 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 14 of 45 31% 8 of 34 4 of 7 2 of 4 14 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 12 of 44 27% 9 of 33 1 of 7 2 of 4 9 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 41 of 78 52% 28 of 59 10 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 68 3 of 3 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 30 of 69 43% 20 of 57 7 of 8 3 of 4 23 of 59 6 of 7 1 of 3
3 Dan Ige 33 of 61 54% 25 of 50 5 of 8 3 of 3 30 of 56 3 of 5 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 32 of 82 39% 25 of 71 5 of 9 2 of 2 23 of 69 9 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.

"my pick is going to be Danny gay but I'm gonna keep him out of parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.

"I'm gonna say Nate landwer edges out a very very close competitive decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.

Dan Ige by knockout +205; round 2 guess
"I took Dan ige by knockout plus 205 which I believe is still out there on the market right now"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.

Ige opened at -224, currently -245; Landwehr opened at +195, currently +213.
"You got to take Danny."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.

"I see an igeko here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.

"I think ige just a level above in MMA man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.

Ige wins by KO (round 2)
"I think he eventually finds a knockout in this fight give me Dan ige by knockout round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.

"I feel like ige is just way too fast stay to the outside better cardio Clips him at some point puts him over"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.

prediction of late first round KO
"I am gonna have to go with Danny gay here over Nate lambware"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.

"I think he's just going to have a lot of opportunities in the middle of, of Nick land where trying to have a very fun, wild, cool brawl."
WIN vs Austin Lingo
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 64 of 153 41% 68 of 160 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:24
Austin Lingo 0 48 of 146 32% 50 of 148 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Lingo 0 30 of 91 32% 31 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Landwehr 0 30 of 75 40% 34 of 82 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Austin Lingo 0 18 of 55 32% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 64 of 153 41% 36 of 104 9 of 25 19 of 24 61 of 148 0 of 1 3 of 4
Austin Lingo 48 of 146 32% 28 of 116 17 of 26 3 of 4 48 of 146 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 34 of 78 43% 20 of 52 2 of 9 12 of 17 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austin Lingo 30 of 91 32% 19 of 75 8 of 12 3 of 4 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 30 of 75 40% 16 of 52 7 of 16 7 of 7 27 of 70 0 of 1 3 of 4
Austin Lingo 18 of 55 32% 9 of 41 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.

"Nate's gonna be the pick but not touching it don't like these odds Austin lingo is much much better than what these odds are saying."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.

Landwehr by submission in round 3
"I'll say Nate land where third round sub but yeah this fight's going to be very very fun"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.

Landwehr wins inside distance; over 2.5 rounds
"I like betting him because I know that he's either going to win me some money or he's going to die trying"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.

Mentions odds: Lingo opened +250, currently +184; Landwehr opened -300, currently -230. Notes the line is getting closer.
"I'm still going to pick him. He's a better athlete. He's super duper tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.

May bet on Austin Lingo as underdog (conditional)
"Nate's a better fighter but he's shown I'm willing to not be the better fighter you know and lose a fight to be entertaining."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Austin Lingo

The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.

fight doesn't go to decision, Austin Lingo by knockout
"I think that lingo's boxing style is going to be perfect for him here to stay safe when he crashes the pocket against landwear"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.

"I'm going with Nate Landwehr... I think he will break Austin lingo as the fight goes on especially in the clinch"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.

Mentions odds: Lingo +184, Landwehr -230. Notes the line is getting closer.
"Landwehr is much more likely to just meet lingo head on with pressure for pressure and being the better athlete. I think that's much more likely to allow him to push lingo to the cage and slow him down."
WIN vs David Onama
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 91 of 185 49% 133 of 253 3 of 4 75% 2 1 5:05
David Onama 1 71 of 174 40% 79 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 1 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 21 of 52 40% 29 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
David Onama 1 46 of 91 50% 53 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
2 Nate Landwehr 0 43 of 76 56% 65 of 116 3 of 3 100% 2 0 3:08
David Onama 0 8 of 21 38% 9 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:20
3 Nate Landwehr 0 27 of 57 47% 39 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
David Onama 0 17 of 62 27% 17 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 91 of 185 49% 73 of 154 10 of 18 8 of 13 52 of 120 22 of 35 17 of 30
David Onama 71 of 174 40% 62 of 158 8 of 15 1 of 1 50 of 139 1 of 3 20 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 21 of 52 40% 13 of 38 4 of 6 4 of 8 14 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 3
David Onama 46 of 91 50% 39 of 80 6 of 10 1 of 1 29 of 64 1 of 3 16 of 24
2 Nate Landwehr 43 of 76 56% 35 of 66 4 of 6 4 of 4 22 of 37 7 of 12 14 of 27
David Onama 8 of 21 38% 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 Nate Landwehr 27 of 57 47% 25 of 50 2 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 40 11 of 17 0 of 0
David Onama 17 of 62 27% 16 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 57 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
David Onama

Angelo picks David Onama due to his power and technical striking. He notes Landwehr is a live underdog with forward pressure but if Onama gets room, he will get the knockout. Onama is also a knockout kings pick.

Will use in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"i've got to go with onama here because of his power and it's it's just so next level and i think he's going to be more technical as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
David Onama

Big Brady picks David Onama to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Onama has a 100% finish rate and is the more dangerous striker with more power. Landwehr has good takedown defense (87%) but is hittable and has been knocked out twice in the UFC. Brady expects a stand-up war where Onama lands the bigger shots and finishes Landwehr.

first round knockout
"i like david and i'm gonna win this fight should be very exciting for as long as it lasts"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
David Onama

Cody picks David Onama, acknowledging his bias for Landwehr but reasoning that Onama's power and athleticism will catch Landwehr coming forward. He notes Landwehr's durability issues and that Onama is getting more comfortable in the UFC. Cody believes Onama will clip Landwehr at some point.

"i think that at some point he's going to clip nate landwear that's going to be pushing forward so nate landwear plus money always live underdog i just think durability is going to catch him in the ass here and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Levi picks Nate Landwehr as a plus-265 underdog, acknowledging the risk of Onama's African power and raw talent. He believes Landwehr can win if he fights disciplined with his hands up, uses his experience, and drags Onama into deep waters. Levi notes that Onama is still green and that Landwehr showed improved technique in his last fight. However, he admits Landwehr could get knocked out early.

"I'm willing to take a shot on these plus 265 odds and see what happens."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Nate Landwehr

The host picks Landwehr as the biggest upset on the card based on odds. He notes Landwehr's takedowns, control time, and output, and believes he can pull it off at +290. He also mentions that Landwehr in front of a full crowd is very live.

"i think it's gonna be nate the train i think nathan terrain pulls it off at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
David Onama

Paul picks David Onama by TKO, citing Onama's power and reach advantage. He notes that Landwehr has been finished in the first round twice and tends to run into strikes. Paul likes Onama by TKO at +175 as a way to avoid the -315 moneyline.

Onama by TKO +175
"onama by tko plus 175. i see out there don't mind that to be perfectly honest"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
David Onama

The host picks David Onama by first-round TKO, comparing the fight to Onama's win over Gabriel Benítez. He notes Landwehr's tendency to get hit early and lack of head movement, and believes Onama's crisp shots will land. He initially had high confidence but lowered it after considering Landwehr's crowd energy, though he still picks Onama.

first round TKO
"i'm going to be going with david onama by tko in the first"
Submission (anaconda choke) R3 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 71 of 130 54% 103 of 163 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:46
Ľudovít Klein 0 42 of 85 49% 44 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 20 of 41 48% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Ľudovít Klein 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Nate Landwehr 0 37 of 61 60% 61 of 86 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:32
Ľudovít Klein 0 13 of 31 41% 15 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
3 Nate Landwehr 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:32
Ľudovít Klein 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 71 of 130 54% 41 of 85 18 of 30 12 of 15 45 of 93 26 of 37 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 42 of 85 49% 20 of 55 18 of 25 4 of 5 39 of 80 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 20 of 41 48% 5 of 20 10 of 15 5 of 6 14 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 19 of 37 51% 6 of 20 11 of 14 2 of 3 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 37 of 61 60% 30 of 49 5 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 33 20 of 28 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 13 of 31 41% 9 of 24 3 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Nate Landwehr 14 of 28 50% 6 of 16 3 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 10 of 17 58% 5 of 11 4 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo is confident Klein wins, likely by stoppage. He praises Klein's phenomenal striking, footwork, and smooth movement, which will allow him to dance around Landwehr's wild pressure. Landwehr is feast-or-famine and puts himself in harm's way. Klein also showed new wrestling elements in his last fight. Angelo thinks Klein's footwork and clean striking will lead to a finish, though he acknowledges Landwehr's chaos could cause an upset.

Klein wins by stoppage, less less on monkey knife fight
"I think ludovic klein is going to get a stoppage here at some point and it's literally going to be his footwork and just how smooth his movements are to make that happen"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Big Brady is confident Klein wins by knockout, likely a head kick, given Landwehr's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He notes Klein has multiple head kick KOs on his record and Landwehr is hittable and reckless. He sees no clear path to victory for Landwehr.

by KO (head kick)
"i like klein here i like him quite a bit i like him to win um by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr as a dog, acknowledging his durability issues but believing his pressure and cardio will overwhelm Klein if he survives the first round. He notes that Klein faded in his last fight against Trizano and that Landwehr's all-action style and track record of pushing a pace make him live as an underdog. He plans to use it as a PRP shot at the bottom of parlays.

"i'm gonna take nate landry for the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel picks Klein to win early, citing his dangerous high kick and first-round explosiveness. He worries about Klein's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, as seen in the Mike Trizano fight. Landwehr gets hit a lot (8 strikes per minute), which is a recipe for disaster against a sharp striker like Klein. However, if Klein doesn't finish early, Landwehr's toughness and deep-water experience could make it interesting.

If Klein doesn't finish early, live bet Landwehr
"i think that ludovic klein probably comes out here and catches him early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Klein is a precise, powerful striker who will land a fight-ending shot on Landwehr, whose chin is deteriorating. Landwehr has poor striking defense and has been knocked out recently. Klein by KO is the most likely outcome, likely in the first two rounds.

Klein by KO -105, Klein in round 1, under 2.5 rounds -145
"i do think he flatlines land where at a certain point in this fight so my thing is going to be uh klein i've already parlayed him he's already part of my lock that i play i think he goes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' strengths and weaknesses but does not state a definitive choice.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by first-round KO, citing Landwehr's recent chin issues and tendency to get knocked down by any shot. He notes Klein's head-kick KOs and fast starts, predicting a head kick to combination finish. He acknowledges Landwehr's past success but attributes recent losses to a deteriorating chin.

first round ko, head kick to combination punch finish
"i'm gonna go with ludovic klein by first round ko here over nate lambwear"
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."