vs
-105 +108
UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026 · Welterweight · Completed
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kevin Holland
4.26 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Randy Brown
4.49 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.33 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Kevin Holland
Moneyline
Caesars -105
KO/TKO
Kalshi +400
Submission
Unibet +575
Decision
FanDuel +430
Randy Brown
Moneyline
FanDuel +108
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +205
Kevin Holland - Fight History
SCHED vs Jacobe Smith
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
WIN vs Randy Brown
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Mike Malott
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 52 of 137 37% 76 of 162 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 49 of 95 51% 50 of 99 1 of 4 25% 1 1 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 9 of 31 29% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:30
2 Kevin Holland 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 36 55% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 52 of 137 37% 23 of 96 9 of 13 20 of 28 49 of 127 3 of 9 0 of 1
Mike Malott 49 of 95 51% 35 of 73 10 of 15 4 of 7 44 of 88 1 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 9 of 31 29% 3 of 22 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 26 1 of 4 0 of 1
Mike Malott 12 of 29 41% 8 of 20 1 of 3 3 of 6 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 23 of 70 32% 12 of 55 3 of 4 8 of 11 22 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 26 of 42 61% 17 of 32 8 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 20 of 36 55% 8 of 19 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 11 of 24 45% 10 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 18 0 of 2 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-115); Holland (+100)

Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of what should be an all-action welterweight affair that could have a little something for everybody. The fan-favorite Holland (28-14, 1 NC; 15-11, 1 NC UFC) will have to be the villain tonight as he goes into hostile territory to take on the last Canadian-born fighter on the night in Malott (12-2-1, 5-1 UFC). The two will hunt for bonus cash—and there is steep competition tonight—while regionally unpopular referee Dan Miragliotta watches on. Holland tries fairly hard to get a glove touch, but the Canadian wants nothing to do with it.
Holland puts his hand down and his foot up, to start kicking Malott in the lead leg. Malott is struggling to get in on the longer Holland, so Holland can pepper his front leg on either side without worrying about something coming back. When Malott responds with his own leg kick, Holland hops and swats out a left hand. The two appear to clash heads when coming at one another, and Malott unloads with a short combination before Holland can reach him. Malott fires off a body kick, and Holland knocks him off his feet with a fierce right hand. Holland considers slamming down high-amplitude hammerfists, and he leaps on top and delivers some damage. Holland stands back up and starts punching the Canadian in the thigh. Malott hits a sneaky sweep to put Holland on his seat.
Holland fights his way back up, and when Malott tries for a mat return, Holland bends like a reed in the wind and rolls all the way through the takedown attempt to end up on top. The welterweights scramble back to their feet, and clashing kicks leads to Malott inadvertently kicking Holland in the groin. Miragliotta calls time, and Holland laughs it off and is good to go within 20 seconds. They resume, and Holland appears fine, as he reaches Malott and knocks him back with a clean left hand. “Trailblazer” leaps at his man with a right hand, and he keeps his balance when Malott wraps him up to drag him down. When they tie up, Malott drills him in the groin with a knee, and Holland is not so jovial about it as he collapses to his knees.
Miragliotta tells the replay officials that he could hear the impact of the second groin strike, and he tells Malott that he knows that it was an accident but reminds him that it was two infractions already and the second appears to have clearly compromised the Texan. Holland gets to his knees but is still clutching his groin, and he reaches in to try to adjust himself and nearly exposes himself on camera. The replay officials appear to be confused, even though it is clear on the video that there was contact on the cup. Holland tries to stand after two-and-a-half minutes, and he is frustrated that the crowd is booing him and pulls himself up to his feet all while shaking his head repeatedly. Miragliotta tells Holland to take as much time as he needs, which is a smidge over a minute remaining. Miragliotta gives Malott a stern warning for the second groin shot, with no point deduction as commentator Daniel Cormier laments there is no consistency in regards to officiating these days with a fighter earlier losing a point from the first foul. Holland tries as hard as he can to shake off the injury, and he tells Miragliotta he is good to go 15 seconds later than stoppage time.
He is still in serious pain, and he takes more time to tap gloves with Malott and backpedals. Holland still adjusts his cup while dodging swings aimed at his head, and Malott allows him to recover even longer before going at him with a right hand and a head kick that are out of range. Holland gets up close to deliver an uppercut, and he bounces back in pain. Holland walks off before time elapses, and Malott throws his hands in the air out of frustration. The round ends with Holland suffering greatly, and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen between rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Miragliotta calls in the doctor between rounds to check on Holland, who has not yet recovered. The doctor tells Holland that he will have to stop the fight if Holland cannot keep going, and again confusion and chaos is about as they are trying to ask him if he is able to continue. Holland doesn’t say yes or no, and instead grimaces in pain and adjusts himself. As he waits, eventually someone signals that he can keep going and that he cannot keep taking more time. The minute break may have been doubled based on that. Holland flashes his jab to keep his range and not let the Canadian to get him as he still tries to bounce around and relieve the pressure. Malott tosses out a half-hearted front kick, and Holland responds with a heavier one. Malott opens up with a flurry of fists, and Holland shoulder rolls them and takes a body kick. He keeps being his jab, and wings a clubbing right that is easily blocked, unable to put much power behind his punches. He ducks a takedown attempt and scoops a left around the guard to surprise his opponent. Holland swats out with lefts, and Malott tags him with a right hand. Malott’s front kick reaches the target of the jaw, and the replies from “Trailblazer” are a front kick and one to the calf.
The Texan narrowly avoids a left hand and pitches out a side kick, and they crack one another with simultaneous right hands. Holland slips back, and a front kick brushes the top of Malott’s shorts. Holland takes a heavy left hand and gathers his thoughts, sticking Malott with a low kick and a front kick. Holland sits down on a crisp right hand, and Malott walks through it. Holland adjusts his athletic support that is still bothering him, and a clinch leads to nowhere so they split up. Malott walks Holland down and decks him with several punches and a knee, and Holland rebounds off the fencing and fires back with a right hand to keep Malott honest. Holland tries for a one-two, and he is intercepted on the way out. Holland bloodies the Canadian’s nose with a jab and an uppercut that follows, and Malott tries to drive him back with a front kick but is elbowed for his handiwork. The round ends with Malott’s nose positively gushing blood.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Holland is still messed up from the groin shots, and tells Malott to keep things clean. They get down to it, with scores possibly two up for Malott or all tied up. Malott jabs the body with his toes outstretched, and Holland chips at his front leg a few times before darting him behind two left hands. Malott counters him up top, and lets Holland throw a kick to go for a big left hand. Holland re-opens Malott’s nose with jabs, and Malott takes a deep breath and blitzes forward. Holland keeps himself largely clear of danger, although the Canadian catches him with a few strikes. Holland’s own offense bounds off the guard, other than a stomping kick to the knee that briefly hyperextends it. Malott reaches out with a push kick to the upper chest, and Holland’s response is to the calf. Holland scores a single right hand and leans back from the obligatory counter, and Malott slides to the side and gets off a side kick and one high. Holland scoots his way forward and eats a few punches.
Holland lands a one-two, and Malott appears to get his attention as Holland bends over and briefly considers a takedown. He bails on it to stand up and further bloody up the Canadian. Malott runs at his opponent and lifts him off the ground, and Holland’s arm goes out of the cage as he apologizes and says he is not grabbing anything but just has long arms. Malott pulls him back inside and down flat on his back, and he smothers “Trailblazer” and bashes him with right hands. Holland uses upkicks and butterfly hooks to frame off, only for Malott to slice through and climb into half guard with 60 seconds remaining. Malott threatens with an arm-triangle choke, stepping over to full mount and then to the side to complete the submission. The ultra-slippery Holland reverse-somersaults to somehow get out of the submission, and he worms his way back to his feet with Malott right after him. The Canadian bullies him to the wire, and looks for a mat return to wrap things up. Instead, he elbows Holland once, and they shake hands after time expires with no bad blood between them. That was certainly a fight of all time.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott (30-27 Malott)

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.

"I got to go with Mike Malott."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.

Malott by submission
"I'm going to pick Mike Malott. I'm gonna pick Mike Malot to win this fight by submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.

"I'm not going to take Kevin Holland. I'm going to go with Mike Malot."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"I definitely have a lot more faith in Mike Molotu fight a smart fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.

"I will pick Mike Malot in this fight. I think that he's still coming into his own. I think he may have improved after that Neil Magny fight. I think he might manage his cardio a little bit better. I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.

win by knockout
"I think Holland can really pick apart Melot from distance and Meot on paper is a better skill for skill fighter than Holland but I just don't think he can keep up with the speed, range or distance work of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.

"Holland Holland's the pick for me at a pick on price."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.

arm triangle submission in round two
"I'm going with Mike Malott, and I'm going to take Mike Malott by arm triangle submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Zane picks Malott, citing his composure, defensive soundness, and ability to pick targets. He notes that Malott can outwrestle Holland and kick his legs. Zane is concerned about Holland's inconsistency and recent poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, where Holland made terrible errors and got hurt. He believes Malott will fight a smart fight.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"So yeah, I'll take Molot over Holland, but it's not a bad test from a lot."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 1 82 of 173 47% 111 of 207 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:07
Kevin Holland 2 77 of 149 51% 111 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Kevin Holland 0 29 of 60 48% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 12 of 28 42% 34 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:05
Kevin Holland 2 31 of 55 56% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Daniel Rodriguez 1 30 of 62 48% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 34 50% 35 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 82 of 173 47% 53 of 126 13 of 22 16 of 25 60 of 137 17 of 27 5 of 9
Kevin Holland 77 of 149 51% 49 of 106 13 of 26 15 of 17 54 of 107 6 of 7 17 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 40 of 83 48% 20 of 50 6 of 12 14 of 21 39 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 29 of 60 48% 12 of 30 8 of 19 9 of 11 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 12 of 28 42% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 21 4 of 6 1 of 1
Kevin Holland 31 of 55 56% 27 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 22 5 of 6 14 of 27
3 Daniel Rodriguez 30 of 62 48% 25 of 55 4 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 35 12 of 19 4 of 8
Kevin Holland 17 of 34 50% 10 of 25 4 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)

Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.

"Kevin Holland absolutely smokes here. He's faster, he's cleaner, he's more powerful."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.

Holland by first round knockout
"Give me Kevin Holland to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.

"I have to pick Kevin Holland. No matter what."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.

knockout
"I expect him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and I think he can utilize his speed and stinging power to eventually line up a knockout getting that victory over Daniel Rodriguez."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.

Fight lasts more than 10 minutes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going to go with Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.

"It just feels like a shoe-in for Kevin Holland."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
Submission R2 1:03 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 35 of 64 54% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vicente Luque 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 24 of 46 52% 14 of 32 3 of 6 7 of 8 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 40 of 74 54% 25 of 58 5 of 6 10 of 10 26 of 56 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 22 of 40 55% 13 of 28 3 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 35 of 64 54% 23 of 51 5 of 6 7 of 7 21 of 46 14 of 18 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)

Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.

"Vicente Luc is going to be the pick. At least you can trust him to do what he's supposed to do."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.

Holland by KO in round 1
"I think Kevin Holland knocks out Lu and I think he does it in the very first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Connor thinks the line is fair.
"I also think this was a very winnable matchup for Kevin Holland."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.

Luque is a live underdog; Holland by KO
"I will stick with my prediction of Kevin Holland winning by knockout. But I think Vicente Luc is a very live underdog, especially if he can get to his takedowns and showcase his slick submission game as we've seen in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.

Finish prediction: decision win.
"I think Holland wins this one though, man. It's hard to get to Holland's chin moving forward..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Zane thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think he'll win."
WIN vs Gunnar Nelson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 15 of 24 62% 30 of 44 3 of 10 30% 1 0 9:29
Kevin Holland 1 55 of 89 61% 138 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Kevin Holland 1 19 of 37 51% 31 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 11 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:22
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 23 73% 73 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Gunnar Nelson 0 7 of 9 77% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:12
Kevin Holland 0 19 of 29 65% 34 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 15 of 24 62% 10 of 19 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 7 of 8 6 of 9
Kevin Holland 55 of 89 61% 30 of 57 15 of 20 10 of 12 15 of 34 22 of 27 18 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 37 51% 10 of 24 3 of 5 6 of 8 9 of 20 4 of 4 6 of 13
2 Gunnar Nelson 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 17 of 23 73% 9 of 15 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 7 6 of 7 8 of 9
3 Gunnar Nelson 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 29 65% 11 of 18 6 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 12 of 16 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)

Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Small bet on Kevin Holland
"I am going to pick Kevin and I know his takedown defense is worse than my six-year-old daughter's... but damn it at times he's a good fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Holland by KO round 2
"One Last Ride Kevin Holland don't let me down knock this guy out give me Kevin Holland to win this fight and win this fight by second round knock out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"Yeah, I mean I just feel like because of the who gunner nelson always has been as a fighter ... he'll probably look pretty much exactly the same."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

submission
"I think he'll be able to showcase that once again here, eventually getting the body lock, dragging this fight to the ground, and eventually finding the back and wrapping up a submission win over Kevin Holland."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

submission round 1 (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna have to imagine Gana Nelson gets a takedown and gets a re naked choke over Kevin Holland"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"If we simply go with the assumption that nelson is going to look more or less the same ... I think kevin holland is going to leap right into his hands."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:31 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)

Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

"I do think he wins this fight the odds are ing last time I said I thought he was going to win this fight he was a much bigger underdog now he's plus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Mentions de Ridder may finish inside the distance with a submission. No specific odds.
"Rainer to Ritter that's exactly what he's looking to do he's not looking to have a fun striking match with you... he's looking to throw a right hand he's going to look to close that pocket get a hold of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Odds: de Ridder opened +132, now -105; Holland opened -147, now -105. Connor thinks de Ridder deserves to be the favorite.
"I gotta take Reinier de Ridder."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Daniel took de Ridder at +126 for 2 units. He says the fade Kevin Holland World Tour continues and expects a submission win.
"I took uh rer der rder about a week or two ago at a plus 126"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

"I'm going with the Ridder in this fight obviously it's a bit of a step up in competition from gm3 Kevin Holland is a Mainstay in the UFC but at the end of the day I don't think Kevin Holland …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

submission victory
"I think he's going to struggle to keep darer off of him which will lead to dder eventually finding a dominant position and getting a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm with you I'll I'll take rer the Ritter at a pick on price here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

submission
"I will take Raina Dara to submit Kevin Holland early or in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm gonna take de Ridder as well."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
Randy Brown - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Gabriel Bonfim
KO R2 1:40 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Bonfim 1 35 of 64 54% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 33 of 87 37% 33 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Bonfim 0 24 of 43 55% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 19 of 61 31% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gabriel Bonfim 1 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Bonfim 35 of 64 54% 11 of 36 1 of 1 23 of 27 33 of 62 2 of 2 0 of 0
Randy Brown 33 of 87 37% 11 of 48 9 of 21 13 of 18 33 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Bonfim 24 of 43 55% 6 of 21 0 of 0 18 of 22 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Brown 19 of 61 31% 7 of 33 3 of 14 9 of 14 19 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gabriel Bonfim 11 of 21 52% 5 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 4 of 15 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-180); Brown (+150)

Round 1
We’re here. It’s the main event. Without a doubt, this is one of the headliners of all time. Welterweights grace the Octagon for the next five rounds or fewer, and at night’s end, only one of these two athletes will likely be ranked—right now, only Bonfim (18-1, 5-1 UFC) is for the UFC. Brown (20-6, 14-6 UFC) feels he has finally turned the corner, other than a pair of tough losses to Bryan Battle and Jack Della Maddalena holding him back from breaking out of the “action fighter” category of his division. Referee Mark Smith brings them to the middle to issue final instructions, stepping back to allow the athletes to touch ‘em up. They do. It’s on with the show.
The athletes are tentative to engage, stabbing out jabs and the occasional low kick as the bout begins. Brown slowly, steadily builds up a work rate with distance in his favor, but the Brazilian is still able to reach him with kicks. Brown checks one kick, but a few more land with audible thuds. Bonfim keeps battering the lead leg, so Brown kicks him in the chest to back him off. The Brazilian strides through to connect with another chopping kick, and Brown is struggling to react to it. When he kicks, Brown throws himself off-balance, as he his having a hard time putting his full weight on his lead calf. Bonfim keeps targeting it with impunity, and he uses it to open up jabs. The kicks by themselves are proving extremely effective, as Brown rushes forward after taking one and knees Bonfim in the sternum. Brown wings a left hand, and he has to switch stances from the damage to his limb.
Bonfim kicks the front leg when available, catching Brown before Brown can punch him. The calf of Brown is swelling and welted just three minutes into the bout, and Brown’s power is already declining due to his struggles planting on his lead wheel. Bonfim works his way in through the gangly arms of his adversary to tag him with punches, with the leg kick rarely far away. Brown rattles off a one-two, but Bonfim’s low kicks have made Brown limp. The Brazilian chambers and fires a low kick on the other leg, nearly knocking Brown down. Brown goes for his own calf kick, and it gets checked hard. Brown bounces on his heels before doubling up on a jab to hurl a right hand behind it, and Bonfim sways with it and resets. A calf kick from Bonfim is so immediately effective that Brown leaps at him with his knee out, hand extended, and his finger jams in Bonfim’s eye socket. Luckily, Bonfim takes a few seconds to clear his vision, and they resume and stay generally out of range until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim

Round 2
Brown leads behind his jab to start off the round and keep his distance, although his front kick reaches out to cover much more ground. He uses it to set up a right hand, and strings several strikes behind it to the body and head. Bonfim counters and reaches his man with a pair of left hands. Brown gets up close to trade hands, and Bonfim meets him in the middle and ends his combo with a calf kick. He drives home a kick a bit higher on the thigh, and rips a right hand that Brown barely shoulder rolls in time. Bonfim doubles up on his chopping kick, and Brown is not a happy camper just six-and-a-half minutes into their fight. Bonfim flicks out a jab, and Brown ducks down to throw back a right hand. Bonfim answers with a crushing knee on the jaw, and Brown falls to his back with his hands at his side, the back of his melon clattering off the Octagon floor. On first glance, it appeared to be a double knockdown because Bonfim hits the canvas as well, but it was because he threw himself off-balance tossing the knee. Smith sprints over to stop the fight, with Brown not defending himself, but Brown rolls to his side and raises a ruckus that it was an early stoppage. He is cooled down quickly as replays show this was probably a fair and just stoppage—those that bet on Brown may disagree—but some fans, media and commentator Dominick Cruz express frustration that Brown did not have any more time to defend himself or possibly recover. The winning Brazilian calls for just one name: Colby Covington, whom he says he will retire. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Randy Brown R2 1:40 via TKO (Knee)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown because he believes Brown is the better striker with great range and solid takedown defense. He notes that Gabriel Bonfim struggled with takedowns against Wonderboy and that Brown's length and boxing from the outside will be key. He also mentions that Brown was screwed in a previous decision and is a very good fighter.

"I'm going with Randy Brown here. Especially if he can drag this fight out. I also think Randy Brown got screwed in that decision against Bryan Battle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady sees this as Bonfim early or Brown late. He notes Bonfim has power and an opportunistic submission game, and Brown has been submitted and knocked out before. He thinks Bonfim can get an early finish, possibly by first-round submission, but if it goes to the third round, Brown will take over. He mentions a potential live bet on Brown.

first round submission, live bet on Brown
"I'll say Bon Fem gets it gets it early and wins this fight by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody thinks Bonfim's cardio is suspect in a five-round fight and that Brown's length, straight punches, and volume will pose problems as the fight goes on. He notes Bonfim's takedowns are explosive early but fade, and Brown can survive early rounds and take over later. He prefers to bet Brown live after the first round rather than straight up.

"I'm just going to take Randy Brown. But live betting him is going to be way better than the pick right now."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Lucrative James picks Gabriel Bonfim to win, but he is not confident. He notes Bonfim's strong first round and submission threat (72% of wins via submission), but questions his cardio and ability to finish Randy Brown. He expects Bonfim to win round one and then edge out a decision, as Brown's style may not pressure Bonfim into gassing. He also mentions a potential over bet or goes to decision prop.

goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Gabriel Bomb theme cuz I'm picking him to win round one and then he only needs to win one out of the next two rounds to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

The host expects chaos and considers the under 2.5 rounds at plus money. He believes Bonfim will drag Brown to the ground and use his superior BJJ to secure a submission within two and a half rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds (+ money), submission
"I think it's just a matter of time before Bomb Fume drags Brown to the ground and utilizes his superior BJJ advantage. And that should allow him to wrap up a submission and force the tap like I said within …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim but has no interest in the minus 180 price. He thinks Bonfim's cardio has improved and he can get a finish early, possibly by submission or knockout. He suggests betting the under 2.5 rounds as a better play than the moneyline.

under 2.5 rounds
"Bonfim is going to be the pick for me. I think he probably does get the chin or catch his chin or find takedowns and work his BJJ."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The Guru picks Randy Brown to win by third-round TKO. He believes Brown's experience and striking will be key, especially if he survives Bonfim's early grappling. He notes Bonfim's tendency to fade if he doesn't get a quick submission, and Brown's ability to stuff takedowns and pick him apart at range.

round 3 TKO
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown getting this one done in TKO fashion. Round two or three. Probably round three."
WIN vs Nicolas Dalby
KO R2 1:39 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 54 of 114 47% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 1 26 of 74 35% 40 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 22 of 52 42% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nicolas Dalby 1 15 of 39 38% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
2 Randy Brown 1 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 54 of 114 47% 45 of 103 5 of 7 4 of 4 54 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 26 of 74 35% 12 of 52 1 of 3 13 of 19 25 of 72 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 22 of 52 42% 19 of 48 1 of 2 2 of 2 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 15 of 39 38% 6 of 23 0 of 1 9 of 15 14 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Randy Brown 32 of 62 51% 26 of 55 4 of 5 2 of 2 32 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 11 of 35 31% 6 of 29 1 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-238), Dalby (+195)

Round 1
A clash of well-traveled welterweights keeps the main card pushing. Looking to get back in the win column, Brown (19-6, 13-6 UFC) will have to outlast the ultra-durable Dane Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC; 7-4-1, 1 NC UFC) as the latter has never been finished. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready should this go the full duration, and he commences the nonsense-free bout as Brown sprints at his opponent without a glove touch in sight. Brown pulls back before crashing into his opponent, and he repositions himself to his preferred distant striking range with significant reach in his favor on the hands and legs. He uses those long arms to set up jabs and stay away from Dalby’s reaching left hook, but the slapping kick from Dalby is effective on the front leg. He goes for it two more times before having to reset and absorb a right hand on the chin. Dalby gets off with another kick, and Brown freezes him with a clubbing right hook. The Dane gathers himself and slings back, but the only one that lands is his low kick on the calf. Brown leaves himself wide open and is skipped with a left hand on the temple. Frustrated by the strike, “Rude Boy” puts everything he has into a left and a vicious right hand, not only staggering Brown but completely shattering his nose like Marsha and the football. Eternally tough, Dalby manages to bounce off the fencing and swing back, but he is compromised from a damage and breathing perspective. Brown does not go for broke, instead picking his shots carefully, and he inflicts further harm and swells up Dalby’s left eye. Dalby complains about an eye poke, and Peterson tells Brown to not leave his fingers outstretched. Brown acknowledges this and wings a right hand, only to get belted with a massive hook that knocks him off his feet. Dalby pounces, blood pouring from his destroyed nose, and he works Brown over with short ground strikes. Dalby uses his arm to control Brown, and he drops down one more elbow before the bell. The doctors are quick to assess Dalby’s condition, and they appear to partially reset his beak while tending to it. It probably will not stay that way for long when getting punched again in the next round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brown

Round 2
Dalby is good to go, giving Peterson a thumbs-up even as his left eye is nearly closed. He is fired up, rushing after “Rude Boy” with swarming punches and swinging kicks. Brown flicks out jabs and front kicks, allowing Dalby to buzz past him, and he punctuates a combo with a hard body kick. Dalby strikes the front leg and comes up short with an overhand right, and Brown continues to pepper the face with jabs and a mean-spirited front kick. Brown’s jab keeps Dalby at bay until Dalby has had enough of taking them, walking through a knee to the body and launching a huge right hand. Brown bounces off the fence, in trouble but still in the fight, and he separates and backpedals. Dalby continues crashing towards his opponent, launching big right hands that force Brown to take desperate measures to stay out of danger. Brown grabs hold of Dalby in a brief clinch to turn him around and his back to the wall, and he measures his target with a step-in knee and a short but sweet right hand directly on the jaw that buckles Dalby’s knees. Dalby recognizes this and bounces on them to try to shake it off, and Brown uncorks a nasty right hand on the jaw that hurts “Danish Dynamite” badly. Dalby uses the fence behind him to stay upright, and Brown waits for Dalby to stand straight up and smashes him in the face with a ferocious overhand right and a speedy left to follow. Dalby not only takes them on the chin but fires back with his own short salvo, catching Brown but taking some punishment on the way in. The 40-year-old has to take a second to step back and assess his condition, and he evades a massive uppercut by a matter of millimeters. Brown keeps swinging, ignoring anything coming back his direction and unloading a nuclear missile of a right hand that explodes on the temple and puts Dalby down once and for all. Brown walks away, saluting his fallen adversary, while Peterson rushes in along with a doctor to check on Dalby who is crumpled in a heap. “Knockout of the Year,” you have a new contender as Dalby had never been finished as a professional and he is laying down face-first in a pool of his own blood. What an incredible knockout, concluding a titanic brawl that will remain on highlight reels for years to come. Dalby comes to, and he is able to applaud Brown for his handiwork.

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Nicolas Dalby R2 1:39 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, speed, technical striking, and high fight IQ. He notes that Nicolas Dalby relies on cardio and weird breathing, but Brown should piece him up and avoid danger. The only concern is a rogue judge who might appreciate Dalby's pressure, but Brown is the cleaner fighter.

"Randy Brown is a high IQ fighter with good technical striking. And I think Randy Brown pieces up Nicholas Dolby."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, reach advantage, and the big cage favoring his range striking. He expects Brown to pick Dalby apart over three rounds and win a decision. He notes Brown often makes fights closer than expected, but still favors him.

fight goes to decision
"Brown and Brown by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby because of his relentless pressure and drive to win rounds, contrasting with Randy Brown's inconsistency and tendency to lose focus. Dalby's multi-layered pressure, durability, and strength will make the fight miserable for Brown, who often gets cornered and loses. Connor notes that Brown has all the tools but lacks the discipline to use them consistently.

"I'm going to take Dolby. Yeah, I'm going to take Dolby to just for the, that sheer drive to win rounds that Randy Brown simply does not have."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The host believes Dalby's reliance on his hardware will deteriorate at age 40, allowing Brown to showcase flaws and batter Dalby from distance for a decision win.

"I believe his reliance on his hardware is going to start to deteriorate allowing Brown to showcase those flaws in DB's game and we'll see a classic Brown performance where he batters Dobby from distance eventually winning this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, citing his improved savvy in three-round fights and ability to handle Dalby's pressure. He notes Brown's reach advantage and that Dalby's head kick won't work on a taller opponent. He expects Brown to win by decision or late TKO, as Dalby is older and has more wear and tear.

"I'm going to go Randy Brown. I think he's picked up some like savvy techniques to sort of more educatedly get through a 29 28 that some of these other prospects just haven't seen when they go up against Nicholas …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Zane picks Dalby, agreeing that Dalby's relentless pressure and ability to make fights ugly will overwhelm Brown, who is prone to making poor decisions and getting cornered. Zane points out that Brown's loss to Brian Battle is a blueprint for how Dalby can win. Dalby may not have the tools to dominate, but his drive and consistency will earn him rounds.

"I would take, I will take the drive over the tools, frankly."
LOSS vs Bryan Battle
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Battle 0 60 of 111 54% 80 of 135 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:46
Randy Brown 0 57 of 110 51% 109 of 175 0 of 6 0% 0 0 7:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Battle 0 21 of 45 46% 29 of 56 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Randy Brown 0 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
2 Bryan Battle 0 15 of 29 51% 21 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:56
Randy Brown 0 22 of 41 53% 56 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:37
3 Bryan Battle 0 24 of 37 64% 30 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Randy Brown 0 21 of 38 55% 35 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Battle 60 of 111 54% 32 of 79 22 of 26 6 of 6 49 of 96 11 of 15 0 of 0
Randy Brown 57 of 110 51% 20 of 64 31 of 38 6 of 8 27 of 76 30 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Battle 21 of 45 46% 11 of 32 9 of 12 1 of 1 19 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 31 45% 4 of 17 9 of 11 1 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Bryan Battle 15 of 29 51% 11 of 25 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
Randy Brown 22 of 41 53% 6 of 23 13 of 15 3 of 3 7 of 25 15 of 16 0 of 0
3 Bryan Battle 24 of 37 64% 10 of 22 10 of 11 4 of 4 17 of 28 7 of 9 0 of 0
Randy Brown 21 of 38 55% 10 of 24 9 of 12 2 of 2 9 of 24 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Angelo picks Bryan Battle, believing his forward pressure and dirty boxing will frustrate the more technical Randy Brown. He notes Battle's improvements and work ethic, but acknowledges he gets hit a lot. Angelo thinks the clash of styles favors Battle, as he can brawl the boxer. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if Battle's odds drop to -150.

If odds drop to -150, will bet
"I am going to pick Brian battle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Cody picks Battle, citing his power and improving skills. He notes Brown's tendency to struggle against pressure fighters and thinks Battle will land big shots. He expects a knockout win for Battle.

Battle by knockout
"Battle by knockout is on the table."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Connor is confident in Battle because his new pressure-fighting style is the exact antidote to Randy Brown. He notes that Brown has historically struggled against pressure fighters who are willing to eat shots and counter, as seen in his losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Vicente Luque. Connor believes Battle's aggression, power, and willingness to trade will overwhelm Brown, who tends to hit the fence and fall apart. He also points out that Battle's recent performances show a clear, winning game plan.

"I gotta pick battle here 100 percent brian battle 100 percent this feels like his kind of fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel picks Brown as an underdog, citing his experience, reach, and cleaner technique. He believes Battle's competition has been weak and that Brown's length and footwork will be too much. He expects Brown to pick Battle apart.

"I think it's Randy Brown's time. I think he's going to set back Brian Battle."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Battle's aggressiveness in the clinch and grappling will break down Randy Brown and lead to a second or third round finish.

finish in rounds 2-3
"I believe the aggressiveness in the clinch and grappling realm of battle will allow him to break down Randy Brown and eventually lead to a second or third round finish for Brian battle"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Paul picks Battle, emphasizing his momentum and power. He notes Brown's age and suspect chin, and thinks Battle's pressure will be too much. He expects a finish inside the distance.

"Battle for me, Battle potentially inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Battle, citing his volume, hustle, and cardio. He thinks Battle will out-volume Brown on the feet and that Brown lacks takedown threats to mix in. He notes Brown has lost close decisions before and that lesser fighters have made it close with Brown. He predicts a close 29-28 decision, possibly split.

"I'm gonna go with Brian battle I think he's got that next thing that puts him over Fighters that are slightly lesser"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Zane also confidently picks Battle, agreeing that his pressure style is the key to beating Brown. He notes that Brown has always struggled against fighters who walk him down and put combinations together against the fence. Zane highlights that Battle has evolved from a reactive fighter to an aggressive pressure fighter, and that this new approach makes him a dangerous matchup for Brown. He believes Battle will overwhelm Brown with volume and power.

"I 100 percent taking brian battle here."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 67 of 141 47% 89 of 166 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:42
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 26 of 76 34% 42 of 94 4 of 7 57% 1 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 34 of 71 47% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Randy Brown 0 8 of 18 44% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:32
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 3 of 7 42% 19 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:52
3 Randy Brown 0 25 of 52 48% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 67 of 141 47% 50 of 120 5 of 8 12 of 13 61 of 133 2 of 2 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 26 of 76 34% 8 of 50 3 of 9 15 of 17 24 of 73 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 34 of 71 47% 24 of 60 2 of 3 8 of 8 33 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 9 of 34 26% 2 of 22 3 of 6 4 of 6 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 8 of 18 44% 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Randy Brown 25 of 52 48% 19 of 44 2 of 3 4 of 5 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 14 of 35 40% 4 of 22 0 of 3 10 of 10 13 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown but with reduced confidence after studying Elizeu Zaleski. He believes Brown's length and range striking will keep him safe, and that Zaleski is chinny and can be dropped. However, he acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and ability to rally, so he leaves Brown out of the safety parlay.

"Randy Brown Remains the pick but I'm telling you my gut reaction was all right safety parlay Randy Brown and then I was like I'll leave him out of the safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady is fading Randy Brown, expecting the fight to go to decision. He thinks Brown won't shoot takedowns or get an early finish, and doesn't expect crazy volume. He notes if there is a finish, it likely comes from Zaleski dos Santos. He is comfortable staying away from Brown.

Fight goes to decision, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by decision or late finish
"fade is gonna be Randy Brown 8,500 I don't think he's finishing uh dos santoso Santos early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown but is hesitant, acknowledging Zaleski's danger. He likes Brown's length, jab, and game plan but notes Brown has slowed down and his defensive grappling is suspect. Cody worries that Zaleski's power and forward pressure could sway judges. He plans to keep Brown low on parlays and might switch to Zaleski after weigh-ins.

"I think I'm going to go with Brown... but I fully recognize that Zaleski is going to be dangerous... it's going to be close and contentious."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff, emphasizing that Zaleski dos Santos relies on distance striking and leg kicks, but Brown's reach and takedown ability neutralize that. He sees Brown piecing him up from distance and potentially taking him down. Vreeland notes Brown is crafty everywhere and can adapt to any scenario.

"I think Brown's gonna piece him up from distance he's probably gonna put the pressure on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel likes Brown's recent confidence and footwork, and thinks Zaleski's chin is declining. He expects Brown to find openings with his jab and straight right, possibly getting a first-round KO. He laid -160 for two units.

"I actually took Randy Brown here minus 160"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Jeff Fox picks Randy Brown, citing his size advantage (4 inches height, 5 inches reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Brown is sneaky good, has no real weaknesses, and can win on the feet or with takedowns. Fox believes Zaleski dos Santos will struggle to deal with Brown's reach and pressure, and that Brown can mix in wrestling to keep things interesting.

"give me the rude boy sneaky good fighter... I think the size is going to be a big issue here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host expects Brown to use his size, reach, and footwork to keep Zaleski at range and win a decision. Zaleski's inactivity and age are concerns, and his unorthodox style may not overcome Brown's disciplined jab and movement. Brown's recent improvements in range management should allow him to cruise to a decision victory.

"Give me Brown and Brown by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul leans toward Zaleski as a dog, citing his forward pressure, damaging blows, and ability to land bigger shots. He notes Brown's style is conservative and may not impress judges, while Zaleski's aggression and power could sway them. Paul mentions Zaleski's age (37) but says he still throws heat and has good cardio. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and likes the plus money.

"I feel like the bigger shots, the forward pressure, the live crowd... Zaleski is a dog with a shot here at plus 150 in a fight that I could see being pretty 50/50."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, believing his height and reach will trouble Zaleski dos Santos. He notes that Zaleski struggles against taller opponents and is older (37) with potential decline. Brown has good boxing at range and recent TKO wins. He predicts Brown by TKO.

Brown by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown I really like this matchup for him"
KO (punches) R1 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 1 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 13 of 46 28% 6 of 33 1 of 5 6 of 8 12 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1
Muslim Salikhov 10 of 22 45% 0 of 9 1 of 2 9 of 11 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 13 of 46 28% 6 of 33 1 of 5 6 of 8 12 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1
Muslim Salikhov 10 of 22 45% 0 of 9 1 of 2 9 of 11 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-245), Salikhov (+200)

Round 1
A killer welterweight matchup originally scheduled for UFC 296 in December, rescheduled due to Brown falling ill, now blesses “UFC Vegas 85.” While Brown and Salikhov lose the full-arena vibe, they do see their scrap promoted from curtain-jerker to feature fight. Lubbock, Texas’ own Kerry Hatley draws his final referee assignment of the night. The “Rude Boy” and “King of Kung Fu” immediately begin exchanging kicks. Salikhov goes low with quick calf kicks, which Brown counters with long flicking front kicks to the midsection. Salikhov tries a spinning wheel kick which falls short, but had murderous speed on it. A minute and a half in, not much has landed outside of low kicks, but it feels as though either man might bust this fight—and maybe his foe—wide open at any moment. Salikhov’s chopping kicks to Brown’s lead leg are starting to land with increasing frequency and force. Brown reaches out with his left hand and the extended fingers swipe Salikhov’s eye. The two touch hands in recognition of the foul before Hatley even calls time, but Salikhov does take his time to blink it out. They go back to work and Brown stocks out a fast jab, feints with his right hip and then comes back with a kick from the other side.
Out of nowhere, Brown crushes Salikhov with a jab and a blistering right cross. Salikhov goes down and Brown appears to hesitate before following up. With no stoppage forthcoming Brown lands a single standing-to-ground right on the turtled Russian, and that’s enough to spur Hatley into action.
Highlight-reel knockout from Randy Brown.

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Muslim Salikhov R1 3:17 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his length and range management. He notes that Muslim Salikhov is dangerous but slowing down at 39, losing cardio and power. He expects Brown to use his reach, work takedowns, and out-technique the aging veteran.

"Randy Brown's going to be the pick I'm pretty confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He notes that Brown is younger, bigger, has a massive reach advantage, better cardio, and better grappling. He questions Salikhov's age (believes he's older than 39) and notes his low volume, poor cardio, and grappling holes. Brady has been burned by Brown as a favorite before but thinks this is a good matchup.

second round, submission (club and sub)
"I'm going to take Brown here um last time these two fought I did pick like a club and sub I'll stick with that give me Randy Brown Club and sub second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown, citing Salikhov's age (39), poor cardio, and low volume. Brown's reach and movement should keep him safe, and he expects Brown to win a decision or possibly a late finish. He notes Salikhov's only path is an early KO.

Randy Brown by decision
"I'm gonna take Randy Brown probably by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown uses his long reach and distance striking to pick opponents apart, and should be able to circle away from Salikhov's power. Salikhov is 39 and slowing down, with a speed disadvantage. Brown's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet if taken down will be key. The host expects Brown to win decisively by decision.

"I think we'll see brown win this fight pretty decisively and I think it comes in the form of him outp pointing outworking and out striking salikov on the feed on route to a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, agreeing with Cody. He notes Brown's 9-inch reach advantage and Salikhov's decline. He likes Brown by decision at +120 but says the market is accurate and he may not bet it heavily.

Randy Brown by decision +120
"Randy Brown by decision I mean it's plus 120 plus 125 like definitely gets you off of that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Muslim Salikhov, predicting a late TKO. He notes Salikhov is 39 and has looked his age, while Brown has an 8-inch reach advantage. He believes Brown can keep Salikhov at range with jabs, teeps, and low kicks, and that Salikhov's power is limited to a few shots. He trusts Brown's ability to avoid Salikhov's right hand, as he did against Khaos Williams.

late TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown over Muslim salikov... I am going to go with Randy Brown actually getting a late TKO here."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 64 of 134 47% 78 of 156 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:47
Wellington Turman 0 55 of 105 52% 96 of 153 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Wellington Turman 0 25 of 52 48% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Randy Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 28 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Wellington Turman 0 12 of 18 66% 42 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Randy Brown 0 18 of 35 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Wellington Turman 0 18 of 35 51% 28 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 64 of 134 47% 21 of 85 17 of 23 26 of 26 53 of 121 11 of 13 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 55 of 105 52% 19 of 60 10 of 14 26 of 31 43 of 90 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 31 of 69 44% 10 of 46 7 of 9 14 of 14 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 25 of 52 48% 5 of 26 2 of 3 18 of 23 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 15 of 30 50% 3 of 17 3 of 4 9 of 9 5 of 20 10 of 10 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 12 of 18 66% 4 of 10 4 of 4 4 of 4 7 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Randy Brown 18 of 35 51% 8 of 22 7 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 18 of 35 51% 10 of 24 4 of 7 4 of 4 12 of 27 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo is confident in Randy Brown, citing his length, power, takedown defense, and BJJ. He expects Brown to stay on the outside and jab, avoiding a ground game. He notes Wellington Turman's striking looked good in his last fight but doesn't think it will be enough against Brown's reach and skills.

"Randy is one of my more confident picks here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing a significant striking advantage with a six-inch reach advantage. He notes Turman's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Andrew Sanchez. He acknowledges Turman's path to victory via wrestling but believes Brown's grappling is good enough to defend. He predicts a first-round knockout, especially if Turman has a bad weight cut.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say round knocks out willing to determine here I think it does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown, noting his speed and linear striking. He expects Turman to gas after the first round and Brown to take over. He mentions Turman's poor takedown accuracy and cardio issues.

"I think Randy Brown will be able to dance around this guy and tee off when need be."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor believes Randy Brown should win this fight easily. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Connor also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.

"I think there's just a lot of room for error. That's where Randy Brown and that means a lot of room for fun."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Levi picks Randy Brown, citing his length, skill, and experience. He notes Brown's occasional showboating and chin questions but thinks he is the more skilled fighter. He is not laying -220 due to Brown's inconsistency and Turman's danger, but picks Brown to win.

Pass on betting; picks Brown.
"I do think Randy Brown's the more skilled fighter so I am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host picks Randy Brown to win by decision. He believes Brown's slick striking and distance management will be too much for Turman, who struggles to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Turman's grappling advantage is nullified if he can't get the fight to the ground, and expects Brown to pick him apart from range.

"give me Randy Brown to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing his speed and reach advantage. He expects Brown to use his jab and movement to win a decision, though he notes Turman's strength and potential grappling. He considers live betting if Turman wins the first round.

Live betting considered.
"I'm gonna take him by decision but turman's also been ko'd a few times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The Guru picks Randy Brown, expressing concern about Wellington Turman moving down to welterweight. He believes Brown has a clear skill advantage on the feet and that Turman's weight cut will leave him vulnerable. He predicts Brown will pick Turman apart with knees and elbows in the clinch and finish by TKO in the second round after Turman fails takedown attempts.

Predicts TKO in the second round.
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown getting a TKO here at some point in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane agrees that Randy Brown should win. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Zane also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.

"I think there's just a lot of room for error. That's where Randy Brown and that means a lot of room for fun."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)

Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

"Jack's gonna be the pick he's probably a safe pick I just hope he fights his fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think he does knock him out at some point in this fight he's gonna be jacked elementalina I'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

"I really like Jack Della and keep in mind I bet against him on his contended series debut... I was so unbelievably impressed with what I saw"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

"I think Jack will close that distance without too much issue get off his strikes and eventually find that knockout and put Randy Brown out probably within the first 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

"I think Jack Della is a rightful favorite in this spot uh I don't really play minus 300s and these types of positions"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

first round TKO; odds comment: should be -180, not -250
"I gotta go with him winning this one and finishing Randy Brown by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take advantage of that mistake."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a guy who can impress me."