Career Averages - Chris Padilla
Career Averages - Marquel Mederos
Chris Padilla
Marquel Mederos
Chris Padilla - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 147 of 271 | 54% | 164 of 291 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 112 of 180 | 62% | 117 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 40 of 66 | 60% | 44 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 63 of 119 | 52% | 71 of 129 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 44 of 75 | 58% | 46 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 44 of 86 | 51% | 49 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 41 of 64 | 64% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 147 of 271 | 54% | 71 of 164 | 30 of 40 | 46 of 67 | 124 of 242 | 22 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 112 of 180 | 62% | 81 of 147 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 20 | 91 of 155 | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 40 of 66 | 60% | 20 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 15 | 31 of 56 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 27 of 41 | 65% | 14 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 34 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 63 of 119 | 52% | 23 of 62 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 43 | 61 of 113 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 44 of 75 | 58% | 32 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 42 of 71 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 44 of 86 | 51% | 28 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 9 | 32 of 73 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 41 of 64 | 64% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 50 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.
Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.
Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.
Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.
Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.
James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.
Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.
Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 88 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 38 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 47 of 78 | 60% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 64 of 109 | 58% | 33 of 60 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 34 | 43 of 83 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 42 of 84 | 50% | 27 of 68 | 12 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 17 of 31 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 12 | 15 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 14 of 28 | 50% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 47 of 78 | 60% | 25 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 22 | 28 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 28 of 56 | 50% | 18 of 45 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.
Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.
Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.
Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.
The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.
Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.
The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 38 of 122 | 31% | 59 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 39 of 98 | 39% | 88 of 147 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 12 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 38 of 122 | 31% | 19 of 92 | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 37 of 120 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 39 of 98 | 39% | 20 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 29 | 35 of 94 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 3 of 16 | 18% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 9 of 24 | 37% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 7 of 42 | 16% | 4 of 33 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 13 of 32 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 28 of 64 | 43% | 15 of 50 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 17 of 42 | 40% | 11 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-125), Padilla (+105)
Round 1
Lukasz Bosacki will ref this featured preliminary bout at lightweight. It’s a very deliberate opening minute. Padilla lands a right over the top during an initial exchange. Halfway through the round and not much in the way of offense has landed. A Herbert kick hits Padilla’s forearm. A kick from Herbert lands below the belt, but Padilla doesn’t need a pause. A front kick finds the range for Herbert. Padilla shoots for a takedown and pushes Herbet into the fence. Padilla with some knees to the thighs late in the round. Padilla keeps the position, landing periodic knees until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 2
Herbert probes with a front kick. A Herbert head kick partially lands as Padilla throws a body kick at the same time. Padilla steps in with a body kick. Once again, offense is coming at a premium. Padilla sticks a jab. Padilla grabs a body lock after an ill-advised spinning kick by Herbert. Padilla has underhooks against the fence and he’s content to grind away her. Herbert tries for a hip toss, and while it doesn’t work, it gets the fight to the center of the cage. Herbert pumps out his jab and Padilla claims his eyes are poked, but there’s no stop in the fight. Herbert steps in with a right. An inside leg kick lans for the Brit, but Padilla shoves his foe into the cage. Padilla with some short punches and knees in close. Herbert lands a knee as they separate, but he can’t find the range on anything else before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 3
Herbert opens with a pair of inside low kicks. A right over the top gets through for Padilla. Herbert threatens with a leaping knee but Padilla sidesteps without issue. Padilla shoots after a Herbert low kick and pushes his adversary into the fence. Padilla lands a short elbow on the break. Herbert lands a 1-2 as he stalks his foe. Herbert has picked up his volume this round, which isn’t saying much. Herbert pressures and is putting some straight punches together. Padilla lands a body kick. Padilla changes levels and secures a body lock. Herbert defends the takedown against the fence, briefly threatening with a guillotine. Herbert lands a knee in the clinch as Padilla drops low for a takedown. Herbert revreses and sperarates. Herbert follows a jab with a knee. The Englishman is doing better mixing in punches and knees, but Padilla, who was busted open at some point during the round, stumbles his foe with an overhand right on the temple during an exchange. Herbert doesn’t seem any worse for wear, though, as he keeps the pressure on. They trade leg kicks as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
The Official Result
Chris Padilla def. Jai Herbert via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.
Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.
The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.
The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 49 of 88 | 55% | 49 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 68 of 105 | 64% | 73 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 38 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 49 of 88 | 55% | 26 of 61 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 14 | 43 of 81 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 68 of 105 | 64% | 36 of 51 | 8 of 12 | 24 of 42 | 62 of 98 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 27 of 54 | 50% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 11 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 35 of 53 | 66% | 16 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 24 | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 22 of 34 | 64% | 11 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 33 of 52 | 63% | 20 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 18 | 27 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.
Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.
Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.
Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.
Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.
Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.
Marquel Mederos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 147 of 271 | 54% | 164 of 291 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 112 of 180 | 62% | 117 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 40 of 66 | 60% | 44 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 63 of 119 | 52% | 71 of 129 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 44 of 75 | 58% | 46 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 44 of 86 | 51% | 49 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 41 of 64 | 64% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 147 of 271 | 54% | 71 of 164 | 30 of 40 | 46 of 67 | 124 of 242 | 22 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 112 of 180 | 62% | 81 of 147 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 20 | 91 of 155 | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 40 of 66 | 60% | 20 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 15 | 31 of 56 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 27 of 41 | 65% | 14 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 34 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 63 of 119 | 52% | 23 of 62 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 43 | 61 of 113 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 44 of 75 | 58% | 32 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 42 of 71 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 44 of 86 | 51% | 28 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 9 | 32 of 73 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 41 of 64 | 64% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 50 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.
Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.
Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.
Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.
Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.
James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.
Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.
Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 1 | 110 of 165 | 66% | 115 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Mark Choinski | 0 | 58 of 114 | 50% | 64 of 120 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Mark Choinski | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 52 of 82 | 63% | 54 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Mark Choinski | 0 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 1 | 27 of 37 | 72% | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Mark Choinski | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 23 of 39 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 110 of 165 | 66% | 63 of 108 | 16 of 18 | 31 of 39 | 94 of 146 | 10 of 10 | 6 of 9 |
| Mark Choinski | 58 of 114 | 50% | 48 of 102 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 54 of 106 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 31 of 46 | 67% | 15 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 13 | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark Choinski | 14 of 36 | 38% | 12 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 52 of 82 | 63% | 35 of 60 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 13 | 44 of 71 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 6 |
| Mark Choinski | 26 of 44 | 59% | 22 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 27 of 37 | 72% | 13 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 19 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Mark Choinski | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Mark Choinski but is hesitant due to the unusual circumstances. He notes Marquel Mederos was sick last week and had to pull out, which raises concerns about his conditioning. He thinks Mark is a good wrestler with creative striking, but he doesn't wrestle enough. He picks Mark because he can't trust a guy who was too sick to fight days ago.
Big Brady picks Mark Choinski as a live underdog. He notes Choinski's wrestling background and solid top control, and thinks he can take Mederos down and win a competitive decision. He points out that Mederos struggled with Austin Hubbard and Landon Quiñones, and that Choinski is a better wrestler than Hubbard. He acknowledges Mederos has 85% takedown defense but thinks Choinski can still get takedowns.
Choinski makes his UFC debut on short notice but has strong NCAA wrestling credentials. He is expected to take down Mederos, grind him out, and possibly threaten submissions. The pick is for Choinski to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos, citing significant reach and height advantages, as well as more experience. He notes Mark Choinski is short and light for the division, and lacks experience. He expects Mederos to use his physical advantages to win.
Angelo picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his cleaner striking technique and defensive soundness. He believes Mederos can use his jab to get through Bolaji Oki's guard and that Oki's power and speed will be less effective as he slows down. He also mentions a potential plus 3.5 round spread bet.
Big Brady likes Bolaji Oki's volume and power, noting his strong performance against Chris Duncan before getting caught in a guillotine. He criticizes Marquel Mederos for close fights against lower-level opponents like Lanni Quinonez and Austin Hubbard, and believes Oki can out-strike and potentially out-grapple Mederos. He picks Oki by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his versatility in multiple ranges (clinch, inside, distance) compared to Bolaji Oki who is primarily effective at range. He notes Mederos' composure and Oki's occasional overzealousness. He predicts a TKO in later rounds or a decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 44 of 68 | 64% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:33 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 26 of 65 | 40% | 62 of 121 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 7:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 28 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:28 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 25 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 44 of 68 | 64% | 21 of 41 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 20 | 32 of 55 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
| Austin Hubbard | 26 of 65 | 40% | 16 of 51 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 23 of 35 | 65% | 9 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 21 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 17 of 39 | 43% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 15 of 22 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 |
| Austin Hubbard | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Connor picks Mederos, noting his Tony Ferguson-like style of fighting in the pocket with high activity and creativity. He thinks Mederos's pressure will overwhelm Hubbard, who is reactive and lacks power. He acknowledges that Mederos's style puts him in danger but believes he can go far before a potential fall.
Zane picks Mederos, agreeing that his aggressive pocket fighting will be too much for Hubbard. He notes that Hubbard's game is reactive and low-power, and that Mederos's willingness to eat a shot and come back is a key advantage. Zane thinks the matchup favors Mederos's mentality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 55 of 149 | 36% | 78 of 176 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Landon Quiñones | 0 | 60 of 146 | 41% | 74 of 165 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 31 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Landon Quiñones | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 22 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Landon Quiñones | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 18 of 54 | 33% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Landon Quiñones | 0 | 27 of 55 | 49% | 33 of 62 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 55 of 149 | 36% | 41 of 115 | 11 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 54 of 145 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Landon Quiñones | 60 of 146 | 41% | 28 of 103 | 18 of 26 | 14 of 17 | 55 of 141 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 19 of 47 | 40% | 11 of 32 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Landon Quiñones | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 18 of 48 | 37% | 16 of 38 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Landon Quiñones | 21 of 55 | 38% | 9 of 37 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 18 of 54 | 33% | 14 of 45 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Landon Quiñones | 27 of 55 | 49% | 12 of 37 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 24 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marquel Mederos, citing his composure, dangerous striking, and takedown defense. He notes that Mederos is a touted prospect but warns against overexposure due to his UFC debut. He mentions that Mederos is part of a parlay with Thomas Petersen but only one bet on him.
Big Brady picks the underdog Landon Quiñones to win a close decision. He notes that both fighters are evenly matched and the line should be closer. He highlights Quiñones' incredible toughness, volume, leg kicks, and power, as well as his defensive wrestling. He expects the fight to primarily take place on the feet and go to decision, with the judges potentially messing it up.
Cody picks Quiñones, citing his volume, cardio, and technical striking. He notes Mederos' power but questions his cardio and wrestling. He thinks Quiñones' output and durability will earn him a decision or late stoppage.
Mederos has a great striking game with educated kicks and decent grappling. Quiñones looked out of shape in his last fight and has questionable cardio. Mederos should control the fight with his kicks from range and possibly mix in takedowns to drain Quiñones' energy. The host expects Mederos to win by decision.
Paul picks Quiñones, noting he missed the better plus-money price but still likes him. He highlights Quiñones' performance against Hackbarth and his grappling improvements. He thinks Mederos is a one-round threat but Quiñones can weather it.
The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos over Landon Quiñones, citing that Quiñones was getting beaten up by Nazareno Malegarie, who lacks power. He notes Mederos has high finishing potential with good boxing, a knee KO, and decent takedown defense. He also dislikes the damage Quiñones is coming off of and believes Mederos will get a finish.
Expert Picks (11)
Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.
Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.
Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.
Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.
Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.
James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.
Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.
Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.
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