UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026 · Catchweight (158 lb) · Completed
Age 30
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 10"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Padilla
4.78 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.87 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.18 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marquel Mederos
4.84 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
2.99 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Chris Padilla
Moneyline
FanDuel -148
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
FanDuel +155
Marquel Mederos
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
BetRivers +3300
Decision
Polymarket +250
Chris Padilla - Fight History
Draw vs Marquel Mederos
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 147 of 271 54% 164 of 291 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:09
Marquel Mederos 0 112 of 180 62% 117 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 40 of 66 60% 44 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Marquel Mederos 0 27 of 41 65% 28 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
2 Chris Padilla 0 63 of 119 52% 71 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Marquel Mederos 0 44 of 75 58% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:01
3 Chris Padilla 0 44 of 86 51% 49 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Marquel Mederos 0 41 of 64 64% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 147 of 271 54% 71 of 164 30 of 40 46 of 67 124 of 242 22 of 28 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 112 of 180 62% 81 of 147 12 of 13 19 of 20 91 of 155 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 40 of 66 60% 20 of 40 8 of 11 12 of 15 31 of 56 9 of 10 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 27 of 41 65% 14 of 27 6 of 6 7 of 8 20 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 63 of 119 52% 23 of 62 11 of 14 29 of 43 61 of 113 2 of 6 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 44 of 75 58% 32 of 62 3 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 71 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Chris Padilla 44 of 86 51% 28 of 62 11 of 15 5 of 9 32 of 73 11 of 12 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 41 of 64 64% 35 of 58 3 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 50 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.

"Padilla is going to fight like that. Padilla will set twice the pace that Austin Hubbard did, and he has to be the pick for that reason."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to take Chris Padilla to get it done. Chris Padilla to get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.

"I like Taku Padilla on a card of things I'm not so certain about... He's one of the guys I'm gonna have to put some trust into."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.

"I'm gonna take Padilla where he could just get lucky."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.

"I'll pick Padilla to edge out a close decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.

"I think the odds are nuts. I'm on Medeiros here hugely."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.

"I will pick Markel Maderos to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.

Padilla wins by decision
"I think Padilla's aggressiveness, calf kicks, and nasty Muay Thai could catch up to Maderos here. ... the prediction will stay Padilla and Padilla by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.

"I like Taco Padilla, man. This guy's got it... I honestly think Padilla... has got this man's number and is going to hand him a defeat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.

"I think Paddy is sneaky good in the lightweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.

"I'll take a boat of confidence for Chris Padilla continuing to blossom."
WIN vs Ismael Bonfim
KO R2 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 64 of 109 58% 88 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:21
Ismael Bonfim 0 42 of 84 50% 47 of 89 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 17 of 31 54% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Ismael Bonfim 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Chris Padilla 0 47 of 78 60% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Ismael Bonfim 0 28 of 56 50% 29 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 64 of 109 58% 33 of 60 10 of 15 21 of 34 43 of 83 6 of 6 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 42 of 84 50% 27 of 68 12 of 13 3 of 3 42 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 17 of 31 54% 8 of 13 4 of 6 5 of 12 15 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ismael Bonfim 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 47 of 78 60% 25 of 47 6 of 9 16 of 22 28 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 28 of 56 50% 18 of 45 8 of 9 2 of 2 28 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

"I'm going to be on the Ismael Bonfim side. He's just better everywhere, and as long as he did not quit on that stool, we should be good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to go Bonfi here to win a decision. I don't think he's finishing Padilla."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

"I guess I got Bonfim, but it's another fight I really don't care for."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm not I haven't got a long breakdown for you guys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Bomb Fee has underachieved in his last few fights. And on the other side, I think Padilla has overachieved. And I think we'll see the course kind of correct itself here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

"I'm not going to be letting Ismael Bonfim ruin my week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm gonna take a crafty underdog of Chris Padilla here."
WIN vs Jai Herbert
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jai Herbert 0 38 of 122 31% 59 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Chris Padilla 0 39 of 98 39% 88 of 147 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jai Herbert 0 3 of 16 18% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Padilla 0 9 of 24 37% 29 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
2 Jai Herbert 0 7 of 42 16% 12 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Chris Padilla 0 13 of 32 40% 32 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:34
3 Jai Herbert 0 28 of 64 43% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Padilla 0 17 of 42 40% 27 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jai Herbert 38 of 122 31% 19 of 92 10 of 19 9 of 11 37 of 120 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 39 of 98 39% 20 of 60 6 of 9 13 of 29 35 of 94 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jai Herbert 3 of 16 18% 0 of 9 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 9 of 24 37% 3 of 11 1 of 2 5 of 11 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jai Herbert 7 of 42 16% 4 of 33 0 of 5 3 of 4 7 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 13 of 32 40% 6 of 17 3 of 4 4 of 11 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jai Herbert 28 of 64 43% 15 of 50 9 of 9 4 of 5 27 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 17 of 42 40% 11 of 32 2 of 3 4 of 7 15 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-125), Padilla (+105)

Round 1
Lukasz Bosacki will ref this featured preliminary bout at lightweight. It’s a very deliberate opening minute. Padilla lands a right over the top during an initial exchange. Halfway through the round and not much in the way of offense has landed. A Herbert kick hits Padilla’s forearm. A kick from Herbert lands below the belt, but Padilla doesn’t need a pause. A front kick finds the range for Herbert. Padilla shoots for a takedown and pushes Herbet into the fence. Padilla with some knees to the thighs late in the round. Padilla keeps the position, landing periodic knees until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla

Round 2
Herbert probes with a front kick. A Herbert head kick partially lands as Padilla throws a body kick at the same time. Padilla steps in with a body kick. Once again, offense is coming at a premium. Padilla sticks a jab. Padilla grabs a body lock after an ill-advised spinning kick by Herbert. Padilla has underhooks against the fence and he’s content to grind away her. Herbert tries for a hip toss, and while it doesn’t work, it gets the fight to the center of the cage. Herbert pumps out his jab and Padilla claims his eyes are poked, but there’s no stop in the fight. Herbert steps in with a right. An inside leg kick lans for the Brit, but Padilla shoves his foe into the cage. Padilla with some short punches and knees in close. Herbert lands a knee as they separate, but he can’t find the range on anything else before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla

Round 3
Herbert opens with a pair of inside low kicks. A right over the top gets through for Padilla. Herbert threatens with a leaping knee but Padilla sidesteps without issue. Padilla shoots after a Herbert low kick and pushes his adversary into the fence. Padilla lands a short elbow on the break. Herbert lands a 1-2 as he stalks his foe. Herbert has picked up his volume this round, which isn’t saying much. Herbert pressures and is putting some straight punches together. Padilla lands a body kick. Padilla changes levels and secures a body lock. Herbert defends the takedown against the fence, briefly threatening with a guillotine. Herbert lands a knee in the clinch as Padilla drops low for a takedown. Herbert revreses and sperarates. Herbert follows a jab with a knee. The Englishman is doing better mixing in punches and knees, but Padilla, who was busted open at some point during the round, stumbles his foe with an overhand right on the temple during an exchange. Herbert doesn’t seem any worse for wear, though, as he keeps the pressure on. They trade leg kicks as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)

The Official Result
Chris Padilla def. Jai Herbert via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.

"I keep picking Chris Pilla here... I'm picking him now while he's a slight Underdog"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.

Padilla by decision
"give me taba to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by a very close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.

"I think Herbert is a cleaner striker and I think we've been seeing an improvement in his striking defense and durability as of late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.

"I'm going to take a slight Underdog of Chris Padilla to be honest with you"
WIN vs Rong Zhu
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 4:14 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 49 of 88 55% 49 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 68 of 105 64% 73 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Padilla 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 33 of 52 63% 38 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 49 of 88 55% 26 of 61 12 of 13 11 of 14 43 of 81 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 68 of 105 64% 36 of 51 8 of 12 24 of 42 62 of 98 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 27 of 54 50% 15 of 38 4 of 5 8 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 35 of 53 66% 16 of 22 4 of 7 15 of 24 35 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 22 of 34 64% 11 of 23 8 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 27 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 33 of 52 63% 20 of 29 4 of 5 9 of 18 27 of 45 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.

Angelo says he will wait for prop bets such as Chris Padilla plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance (decision no action).
"I'm going out on a limb I'm picking the dog Chris Padilla"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.

"I'll go rangu to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.

"I'm G take Chris Padilla this is another PRP type long shot play"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.

"I think Rong zoo is gonna stuff this man's takedowns and bust him up... I'm going Rong zooo here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.

Rong Zhu by finish within 2 rounds
"I'm going to go uh wrong zuu here and I think he eventually finds the Finish within possibly two rounds or so."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.

Chris Padilla by submission +600 (playable)
"Padilla I was interested in his submission prop it's obviously early in the week so numbers aren't the greatest six plus 600 is the best on Market which I think is like playable"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.

"I think he's going to go out there and have a good performance against Chris Pilla... I think he's going to get this one done over Chris Padilla"
WIN vs James Llontop
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:33 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 12 of 26 46% 14 of 29 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 12 of 26 46% 14 of 29 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 19 of 40 47% 7 of 25 2 of 4 10 of 11 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 12 of 26 46% 6 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 19 of 40 47% 7 of 25 2 of 4 10 of 11 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 12 of 26 46% 6 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.

"long top rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.

"I got to go Lop here to to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
James Llontop

Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.

"I think that lawn toop will just be too much for him in the spot and I think he ends up overwhelming him and finishing him in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.

"James laop is another one of your good picks this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
James Llontop

The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.

"I'm going to go with James Lono over Chris Pilla"
Marquel Mederos - Fight History
Draw vs Chris Padilla
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 147 of 271 54% 164 of 291 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:09
Marquel Mederos 0 112 of 180 62% 117 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 40 of 66 60% 44 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Marquel Mederos 0 27 of 41 65% 28 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
2 Chris Padilla 0 63 of 119 52% 71 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Marquel Mederos 0 44 of 75 58% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:01
3 Chris Padilla 0 44 of 86 51% 49 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Marquel Mederos 0 41 of 64 64% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 147 of 271 54% 71 of 164 30 of 40 46 of 67 124 of 242 22 of 28 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 112 of 180 62% 81 of 147 12 of 13 19 of 20 91 of 155 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 40 of 66 60% 20 of 40 8 of 11 12 of 15 31 of 56 9 of 10 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 27 of 41 65% 14 of 27 6 of 6 7 of 8 20 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 63 of 119 52% 23 of 62 11 of 14 29 of 43 61 of 113 2 of 6 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 44 of 75 58% 32 of 62 3 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 71 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Chris Padilla 44 of 86 51% 28 of 62 11 of 15 5 of 9 32 of 73 11 of 12 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 41 of 64 64% 35 of 58 3 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 50 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.

"Padilla is going to fight like that. Padilla will set twice the pace that Austin Hubbard did, and he has to be the pick for that reason."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to take Chris Padilla to get it done. Chris Padilla to get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.

"I like Taku Padilla on a card of things I'm not so certain about... He's one of the guys I'm gonna have to put some trust into."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.

"I'm gonna take Padilla where he could just get lucky."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.

"I'll pick Padilla to edge out a close decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.

"I think the odds are nuts. I'm on Medeiros here hugely."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.

"I will pick Markel Maderos to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.

Padilla wins by decision
"I think Padilla's aggressiveness, calf kicks, and nasty Muay Thai could catch up to Maderos here. ... the prediction will stay Padilla and Padilla by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.

"I like Taco Padilla, man. This guy's got it... I honestly think Padilla... has got this man's number and is going to hand him a defeat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.

"I think Paddy is sneaky good in the lightweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.

"I'll take a boat of confidence for Chris Padilla continuing to blossom."
WIN vs Mark Choinski
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marquel Mederos 1 110 of 165 66% 115 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Mark Choinski 0 58 of 114 50% 64 of 120 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marquel Mederos 0 31 of 46 67% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Mark Choinski 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:23
2 Marquel Mederos 0 52 of 82 63% 54 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Mark Choinski 0 26 of 44 59% 26 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
3 Marquel Mederos 1 27 of 37 72% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Mark Choinski 0 18 of 34 52% 23 of 39 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marquel Mederos 110 of 165 66% 63 of 108 16 of 18 31 of 39 94 of 146 10 of 10 6 of 9
Mark Choinski 58 of 114 50% 48 of 102 7 of 9 3 of 3 54 of 106 2 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marquel Mederos 31 of 46 67% 15 of 27 6 of 6 10 of 13 31 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mark Choinski 14 of 36 38% 12 of 33 1 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marquel Mederos 52 of 82 63% 35 of 60 7 of 9 10 of 13 44 of 71 5 of 5 3 of 6
Mark Choinski 26 of 44 59% 22 of 39 2 of 3 2 of 2 26 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marquel Mederos 27 of 37 72% 13 of 21 3 of 3 11 of 13 19 of 29 5 of 5 3 of 3
Mark Choinski 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 28 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Angelo picks Mark Choinski but is hesitant due to the unusual circumstances. He notes Marquel Mederos was sick last week and had to pull out, which raises concerns about his conditioning. He thinks Mark is a good wrestler with creative striking, but he doesn't wrestle enough. He picks Mark because he can't trust a guy who was too sick to fight days ago.

"I'm going to pick Mark because he is a good wrestler. ... I can't trust a guy that was too sick to fight just a few days ago."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Big Brady picks Mark Choinski as a live underdog. He notes Choinski's wrestling background and solid top control, and thinks he can take Mederos down and win a competitive decision. He points out that Mederos struggled with Austin Hubbard and Landon Quiñones, and that Choinski is a better wrestler than Hubbard. He acknowledges Mederos has 85% takedown defense but thinks Choinski can still get takedowns.

Choinski by decision
"I'm actually going to take Mark the Shark. I'm going to take Mark the Shark here as a pretty big underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Choinski makes his UFC debut on short notice but has strong NCAA wrestling credentials. He is expected to take down Mederos, grind him out, and possibly threaten submissions. The pick is for Choinski to win on the scorecards.

"I believe he'll be able to showcase his NCAA wrestling on full display here, taking down Maderos, grinding him out, maybe threatening with a few submission attempts, but I expect Troinsky to be very effective and eventually get his hand …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos, citing significant reach and height advantages, as well as more experience. He notes Mark Choinski is short and light for the division, and lacks experience. He expects Mederos to use his physical advantages to win.

"I'm going to go with Markel Maderos getting this one done. The reach advantage, the height advantage, the having weight in general..."
CANCEL vs Bolaji Oki
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Angelo picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his cleaner striking technique and defensive soundness. He believes Mederos can use his jab to get through Bolaji Oki's guard and that Oki's power and speed will be less effective as he slows down. He also mentions a potential plus 3.5 round spread bet.

Mentions a potential plus 3.5 round spread bet on Mederos.
"I am going with Markeel Maderos here. He is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady likes Bolaji Oki's volume and power, noting his strong performance against Chris Duncan before getting caught in a guillotine. He criticizes Marquel Mederos for close fights against lower-level opponents like Lanni Quinonez and Austin Hubbard, and believes Oki can out-strike and potentially out-grapple Mederos. He picks Oki by decision.

by decision
"I like Oki here. You know, Oki's a very good fighter. I like the volume, you know, in that Chris Duncan fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his versatility in multiple ranges (clinch, inside, distance) compared to Bolaji Oki who is primarily effective at range. He notes Mederos' composure and Oki's occasional overzealousness. He predicts a TKO in later rounds or a decision win.

"I'm actually going to go with Markeel Madios here. He's an underdog... I think Markeel Maderos is more effective in more different ranges than Bellagio is."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marquel Mederos 0 44 of 68 64% 57 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:33
Austin Hubbard 0 26 of 65 40% 62 of 121 2 of 9 22% 1 0 7:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marquel Mederos 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 17 of 39 43% 19 of 41 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Marquel Mederos 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 3 of 9 33% 18 of 35 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:12
3 Marquel Mederos 0 15 of 22 68% 28 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:28
Austin Hubbard 0 6 of 17 35% 25 of 45 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marquel Mederos 44 of 68 64% 21 of 41 7 of 7 16 of 20 32 of 55 4 of 4 8 of 9
Austin Hubbard 26 of 65 40% 16 of 51 6 of 9 4 of 5 22 of 60 3 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marquel Mederos 23 of 35 65% 9 of 19 4 of 4 10 of 12 21 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 17 of 39 43% 10 of 28 4 of 7 3 of 4 15 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marquel Mederos 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 3 of 9 33% 2 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marquel Mederos 15 of 22 68% 9 of 15 2 of 2 4 of 5 5 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 9
Austin Hubbard 6 of 17 35% 4 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Connor picks Mederos, noting his Tony Ferguson-like style of fighting in the pocket with high activity and creativity. He thinks Mederos's pressure will overwhelm Hubbard, who is reactive and lacks power. He acknowledges that Mederos's style puts him in danger but believes he can go far before a potential fall.

"I think I'm gonna pick him over Austin Hubbard. The pressure that Mederos puts on especially against something like Hubbard who invites pressure... he's gonna get hit a ton but there's a lot of ways that Mederos can kind of …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Zane picks Mederos, agreeing that his aggressive pocket fighting will be too much for Hubbard. He notes that Hubbard's game is reactive and low-power, and that Mederos's willingness to eat a shot and come back is a key advantage. Zane thinks the matchup favors Mederos's mentality.

"I'll take Mederos too. This is not one that it would shock me if Hubbard managed to outpoint him, but I just don't like how Hubbard fights."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marquel Mederos 0 55 of 149 36% 78 of 176 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
Landon Quiñones 0 60 of 146 41% 74 of 165 0 of 5 0% 0 0 4:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marquel Mederos 0 19 of 47 40% 31 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:17
Landon Quiñones 0 12 of 36 33% 15 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
2 Marquel Mederos 0 18 of 48 37% 22 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Landon Quiñones 0 21 of 55 38% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
3 Marquel Mederos 0 18 of 54 33% 25 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Landon Quiñones 0 27 of 55 49% 33 of 62 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marquel Mederos 55 of 149 36% 41 of 115 11 of 26 3 of 8 54 of 145 1 of 4 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 60 of 146 41% 28 of 103 18 of 26 14 of 17 55 of 141 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marquel Mederos 19 of 47 40% 11 of 32 5 of 10 3 of 5 18 of 43 1 of 4 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 12 of 36 33% 7 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marquel Mederos 18 of 48 37% 16 of 38 2 of 8 0 of 2 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 21 of 55 38% 9 of 37 6 of 11 6 of 7 20 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marquel Mederos 18 of 54 33% 14 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 1 18 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 27 of 55 49% 12 of 37 9 of 11 6 of 7 24 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Angelo picks Marquel Mederos, citing his composure, dangerous striking, and takedown defense. He notes that Mederos is a touted prospect but warns against overexposure due to his UFC debut. He mentions that Mederos is part of a parlay with Thomas Petersen but only one bet on him.

Mederos included in a parlay with Thomas Petersen
"I'm confident in Marquel to win obviously be very careful he is a young guy at 27 this is his official UFC debut"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Landon Quiñones

Big Brady picks the underdog Landon Quiñones to win a close decision. He notes that both fighters are evenly matched and the line should be closer. He highlights Quiñones' incredible toughness, volume, leg kicks, and power, as well as his defensive wrestling. He expects the fight to primarily take place on the feet and go to decision, with the judges potentially messing it up.

decision, fight of the night potential
"give me the underdog here and lonz to win a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Landon Quiñones

Cody picks Quiñones, citing his volume, cardio, and technical striking. He notes Mederos' power but questions his cardio and wrestling. He thinks Quiñones' output and durability will earn him a decision or late stoppage.

"got to go Atlantic konz"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Mederos has a great striking game with educated kicks and decent grappling. Quiñones looked out of shape in his last fight and has questionable cardio. Mederos should control the fight with his kicks from range and possibly mix in takedowns to drain Quiñones' energy. The host expects Mederos to win by decision.

"I think mados has this fight in the bag kind of surprised that we're only getting minus 140 on this line right now."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Landon Quiñones

Paul picks Quiñones, noting he missed the better plus-money price but still likes him. He highlights Quiñones' performance against Hackbarth and his grappling improvements. He thinks Mederos is a one-round threat but Quiñones can weather it.

"Landon canones will be the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos over Landon Quiñones, citing that Quiñones was getting beaten up by Nazareno Malegarie, who lacks power. He notes Mederos has high finishing potential with good boxing, a knee KO, and decent takedown defense. He also dislikes the damage Quiñones is coming off of and believes Mederos will get a finish.

finish
"I'm actually G to go with marel Maderos over Landon Quinones... I am going to go with Marquel Maderos and I reckon he will get a finish."
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.

"Padilla is going to fight like that. Padilla will set twice the pace that Austin Hubbard did, and he has to be the pick for that reason."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to take Chris Padilla to get it done. Chris Padilla to get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.

"I like Taku Padilla on a card of things I'm not so certain about... He's one of the guys I'm gonna have to put some trust into."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.

"I'm gonna take Padilla where he could just get lucky."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.

"I think the odds are nuts. I'm on Medeiros here hugely."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.

"I'll pick Padilla to edge out a close decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.

"I will pick Markel Maderos to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.

Padilla wins by decision
"I think Padilla's aggressiveness, calf kicks, and nasty Muay Thai could catch up to Maderos here. ... the prediction will stay Padilla and Padilla by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.

"I like Taco Padilla, man. This guy's got it... I honestly think Padilla... has got this man's number and is going to hand him a defeat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.

"I think Paddy is sneaky good in the lightweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.

"I'll take a boat of confidence for Chris Padilla continuing to blossom."