UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Age 37
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 35
Height 6' 1"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Azamat Murzakanov
4.7 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.86 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.55 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Paulo Costa
6.26 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
6.2 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Azamat Murzakanov
Moneyline
Caesars -195
KO/TKO
Polymarket +220
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
Kalshi +190
Paulo Costa
Moneyline
BetWay +200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +430
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
FanDuel +550
Azamat Murzakanov - Fight History
LOSS vs Paulo Costa
TKO R3 1:23 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 34 of 70 48% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
Paulo Costa 1 55 of 80 68% 61 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 21 of 31 67% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
Paulo Costa 0 19 of 31 61% 23 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:49
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 1 15 of 18 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 34 of 70 48% 26 of 59 8 of 11 0 of 0 30 of 65 4 of 5 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 55 of 80 68% 27 of 44 16 of 23 12 of 13 44 of 66 6 of 7 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 7 of 26 26% 6 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 21 of 31 67% 8 of 14 5 of 9 8 of 8 14 of 22 2 of 2 5 of 7
2 Azamat Murzakanov 23 of 38 60% 16 of 30 7 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 19 of 31 61% 9 of 17 7 of 10 3 of 4 15 of 26 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 15 of 18 83% 10 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power, wrestling, and knockdowns in every UFC fight. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's recent good performance but is skeptical of Costa moving up in weight and his history of canceled fights. He expects Azamat to bring pressure and suggests a possible over 1.5 rounds bet.

over 1.5 rounds
"Azamat's going to be the pick. Maybe we get lucky enough for a one and a half round line because I do think this is going to go a little bit longer."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is impressed with Murzakanov's speed, power, takedown defense, and defensive striking. He notes that Murzakanov's cardio has improved and he carries power late. He doubts Paulo Costa's recent performances, citing losses to Vettori, Strickland, and Adesanya. He predicts Murzakanov wins by decision, possibly hurting Costa but not finishing him.

decision
"I like Merzikanov in this matchup... give me Azamat Merzikanov to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa as an underdog, believing he can weather Murzakanov's early storm and outwork him in later rounds. He notes Murzakanov's low volume and Costa's durability, expecting a decision win for Costa.

"I am actually going to take Paul Costa. Very small stakes, but I feel like he weathers the early storm and just outworks him down in rounds two and three."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Connor picks Murzakanov, citing Costa's inconsistency and lack of defensive awareness. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-shot knockout artist with excellent timing and defensive awareness, and that Costa's high-volume, low-defense style leaves him vulnerable. Connor also questions Costa's motivation and his move up to light heavyweight, suggesting that Murzakanov's calm, patient approach will allow him to land a clean shot. He compares Murzakanov to Fedor Emelianenko in terms of timing and cage craft.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I got to take, I got to take Merzicon off just wait, Costa..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Vreeland picks Azamat Murzakanov because he believes Murzakanov is criminally underrated and has been disrespected by oddsmakers. He notes that Murzakanov has heavy hands and good wrestling, and that Costa's cardio and discipline are questionable. He also points out that Costa's move up to light heavyweight may not help his psyche or performance.

"I got Murzakanov here, and I think he's being disrespected again, coach."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel believes Murzakanov is being disrespected and sees him as a heavy hitter with good takedown defense. He thinks Costa gets discouraged in fights and that Murzakanov will box him up.

"I feel like people are disrespecting Mzakanov and I'm going to come out here and pick him and I think that he boxes up Paulo Costa."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The host thinks the odds are too aggressive favoring Murzakanov (implied probability 67%) and would cap the fight closer to 50/50. He believes Costa has better cardio and is the more complete striker, while Murzakanov is a better boxer with more power but fades after the first round. He prefers the underdog value on Costa but is not confident in a win.

Likes Costa +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision.
"If I were capping this fight personally, I would probably have it closer to 50/50. I don't really know why Merab Dvalishvili is such a big favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

James picks Murzakanov, citing his power, speed, and accuracy advantage over Costa, who he believes is on a downtrend and not suited for light heavyweight. He expects Murzakanov to hurt Costa early and possibly finish him.

"I did end up picking Azimat Makanov as my official pick. And I do think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Costa's durability and volume should be too much for Murzakanov, who relies heavily on knockout power. Murzakanov has been close to losing in several fights and his power may not phase Costa. Costa's athleticism and counter-striking can neutralize Murzakanov's blitzes. Costa looked sharp against Kopylov and can outpoint or even knock out Murzakanov. This is a winnable fight for Costa at plus money.

Costa wins by knockout
"I'm gonna go Costa here to pull off the upset. I think he ends up landing a big shot on Mzakonov."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul favors Murzakanov due to Costa's questionable commitment and Murzakanov's knockout power. He thinks Costa may be one foot in, one foot out, while Murzakanov's sole purpose is knocking dudes out.

"Makana is a side for me. What about you? Yeah, I'm gonna go with Paulo Costa..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa over Azamat Murzakanov. He is very confident, calling it a 'masterclass'. He believes Costa's speed, body kicks, and technical striking will be too much for Murzakanov, who he thinks is overrated and whose best days are behind him. He predicts a TKO in round two via body kick or similar.

"You're about to witness a Paulo Costa masterclass."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov, emphasizing Costa's psychological fragility and tendency to fade when pressured. He notes that Murzakanov does a lot of maintenance work—cutting off the cage, feinting, and being defensively aware—which will set up his knockout power. Zane also points out that Costa's only recent good performance was against Roman Kopylov, and that moving up to light heavyweight again raises questions about his commitment. He believes Murzakanov's timing and power will be too much for Costa, who is prone to getting hit and may not want to engage.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I think this may be one of those fights where that genuinely is the deciding factor. Yeah, because Marzakonov landing a clean shot on Paula Costa may not be so different from Israel, out of Sonia landing a clean shot …"
KO R1 3:11 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksandar Rakić 0 9 of 14 64% 13 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Azamat Murzakanov 1 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksandar Rakić 0 9 of 14 64% 13 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Azamat Murzakanov 1 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksandar Rakić 9 of 14 64% 0 of 3 3 of 4 6 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Azamat Murzakanov 3 of 8 37% 1 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksandar Rakić 9 of 14 64% 0 of 3 3 of 4 6 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Azamat Murzakanov 3 of 8 37% 1 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Murzakanov (-118), Rakic (-102)

Round 1
The main card of one of the presumably final pay-per-views for the organization kicks off with a light heavyweight eliminator, although the elimination could be one’s job depending on the result. Having lost his last three, “Rocket” Rakic (14-5, 6-4 UFC) needs to record his first triumph since 2021. On a slow-moving rocket blasting towards him is Russia’s Murzakanov (15-0, 5-0 UFC), three years the elder but never having lost as a professional. This tale of two tides will be overseen by referee Rich Mitchell, quite aware of the implications this outing may have on the light heavyweight division.
Rakic quickly lets loose a range-finding low kick, and he skims the side of his opponent when lifting his leg higher. Rakic hammers the upper chest with a kick, and he ducks away from two looping hooks. Rakic prods at the front leg with his shin, and he scores another heavy body kick that Murzakanov partially leaned into. Rakic kicks up the middle and then hits the front leg, and he changes things up for a double-leg entry and bullies the Russian to the fencing. Murzakanov defends the first effort with his back to the wall, and he starts taking knees to the thigh while he looks off at the clock that reads three minutes remaining. Murzakanov pushes off and separates, and he lances a trio of punches down the middle at his foe. Rakic replies with a right hand to the waist, and Murzakanov gives him one back to think about. Rakic kicks the body, then the lead leg, and those two open up a single-leg entry.
Murzakanov times a counter to roll Rakic over, but this results in an uncomfortable position for both men so they abandon it and start back over on the feet. Murzakanov sits down on a short right hand, and it catches Rakic’s chin perfectly and separates him from his senses right as Rakic was rushing forward to engage. The Austrian hits the floor and turns over to his side to shell up, seemingly totally out of it and done for the day. Murzakanov seems almost surprised, and he rains down a few punches to punctuate the performance and keep his undefeated record that way. Mitchell waves the fight off, and in the blink of an eye the two went from trading blows to lights out. The Russian has landed his fifth knockout as a UFC light heavyweight, and less than a dozen men hold more in promotional history—Chuck Liddell’s nine in the modern era still leads the pack.

The Official Result
Azamat Murzakanov def. Aleksandar Rakic R1 3:11 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo leans toward Azamat Murzakanov despite acknowledging Rakic's reach and technical striking. He notes Murzakanov has knockdowns in all six UFC fights and is powerful, but also small for the division. Angelo thinks Rakic is too low-volume and used to losing, and he might sprinkle a small bet on Murzakanov if the odds widen.

I might sprinkle sprinkle a little bit on him.
"I am still going to lean Murzakanov. I think Rakic is too safe, too low-volume, and honestly, too used to losing at this point. ... Azamat Murzakanov's the pick. We'll see if these odds widen or tighten, and I might …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Big Brady leans toward Aleksandar Rakić, despite Murzakanov's undefeated record. He notes Rakić has faced elite competition (former champions) and has a significant size advantage (4-inch height, 7.5-inch reach). Brady expects Rakić's superior cardio and leg kicks to be decisive as Murzakanov slows down in fights. He predicts a close decision win for Rakić, though he hates picking against Murzakanov.

Rakić by decision
"I'm leaning Rakić's way. It's very tough to pick against Murzakanov cuz Murzakanov just kind of looks like he's just kind of he's going to keep winning. But I feel like I got to go Rakić here. I'm going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody picks Azamat Murzakanov despite the size disadvantage, citing his undefeated record and knockout power. He notes that Rakić is on a three-fight losing streak and may have confidence issues, while Murzakanov finds a way to win. Cody acknowledges that Rakić is world-class and will have moments, but believes Murzakanov's power and finishing ability will prevail, though he expects a close fight.

"Murzakanov at some point finds the kill shot for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Connor picks Rakić, arguing that Murzakanov's level of competition has been low and his size disadvantage will be too much. He believes Rakić's reach and kicking game will keep Murzakanov at bay, and that Murzakanov's low output will cost him rounds. Connor thinks this is a step too far for Murzakanov.

"I'm going to pick Rockach here. I think that this is really just the point where Mirza Kannav's small, small, small guy who takes huge chances game just can't overcome."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Vreeland questions Rakić's confidence and durability, noting his tendency to fade and his recent losses. He believes Murzakanov's pressure, southpaw power, and ability to close distance will overwhelm Rakić. He predicts Murzakanov will walk Rakić down, get into punching range, and knock him out. He acknowledges Murzakanov's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early.

wins by KO
"I'm going to pick Mzakanov to extend his win streak and to come out here and knock out Alexander Rockic."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Lucrative James picks Aleksandar Rakić, but hesitantly. He cites Rakić's experience against top competition (Jan Błachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev) and his size advantage, which could make his head kicks effective. He notes Murzakanov's power and explosiveness but questions his cardio and level of competition. He believes Rakić can win the minutes and land kicks from the outside, but acknowledges Murzakanov's danger.

"I am going to pick Rakage here, boys. I've decided I'm going to pick Rakage because I think he might be a little bit underrated coming off three losses to three of the best in the division."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The host believes Rakić can stay away from Murzakanov's power, chip away with calf kicks, and mix in grappling. He thinks Rakić's size and strength will lead to a knockout.

knockout
"I think that Rakage is going to be too big and too strong for Mzrizzakonov, which should lead to Rakage finding that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul also picks Murzakanov but is hesitant, noting the size difference and Rakić's speed. He plans to wait for weigh-ins to get a better price, as Murzakanov may drift to plus money. Paul acknowledges that Murzakanov's cardio is a concern, but believes his power and the Abu Dhabi crowd support give him an edge.

"Murzakanov is the side for me. I'm going to wait until weigh-ins cuz I feel like you may get a better price."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić by decision, but admits he is hesitant. He notes that Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated and has KO power, but Rakić has a significant reach advantage and has trained with Jon Jones. He believes Rakić's low kicks and range management will be key, and that Murzakanov's shorter frame may struggle to land. He references Rakić's close fight with Magomed Ankalaev and his performance against Jiri Prochazka before getting injured. He expects a 29-28 decision, possibly with a scare in the third round.

"I'm going with Aleksandar Rakic. Sad, I know. I don't know why I keep doing it, but I can't [ __ ] help myself."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov, comparing him to a wolverine who will not accept losing. He believes Murzakanov will absorb early damage from Rakić's kicks but then storm forward and steal rounds with crushing offense. Zane notes Rakić's tendency to fall apart under pressure and thinks Murzakanov's aggression will be the difference.

"I'm still going to pick Mirza Kannav here. I think, um, he's going to soak up a lot of damage, but I think there's enough of what we saw from Uncle I have against Rockach and Mirza Kannav that at …"
KO R1 3:25 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 1 27 of 36 75% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Brendson Ribeiro 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 1 27 of 36 75% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Brendson Ribeiro 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 27 of 36 75% 23 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 20 of 26
Brendson Ribeiro 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 27 of 36 75% 23 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 20 of 26
Brendson Ribeiro 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov confidently, noting his power, wrestling, and durability. He highlights that Azamat has a knockdown in all five UFC fights and showed a second gear when rocked by Alonzo Menifield. He thinks Brendson Ribeiro is hittable and has a quit button. He includes Azamat in a parlay as one of his most confident picks.

Parlayed with Yoo Joo-sang.
"Azimat Makonov is the pick. I do have him in a parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is confident in Murzakanov despite his age (jokes he is in his 70s). He praises Murzakanov's striking and well-rounded game, and thinks Ribeiro is hittable and doesn't like getting hit. He expects Murzakanov to find a knockout early, possibly in the first round, noting his history of second- and third-round KOs but thinking this one comes sooner.

Murzakanov by KO in round 1
"I think Mzakana probably puts this guy to sleep. So I'm going to take uh the old man Ozamot Mzakonov. He's 90 years old, but I think he gets it done. I think he gets it done by first round …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Connor agrees, noting Murzakanov is a bruiser who will punish Ribeiro's defensive lapses. He highlights Ribeiro's vulnerability to being backed up and his lack of durability, while Murzakanov keeps power late. Connor sees it as a similar fight to Ribeiro's last win but with a more dangerous opponent.

"I think that'll probably work against Hibero."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The fight might be closer than the odds indicate, especially if Murzakanov leans on his striking. Ribeiro has a huge height and reach advantage that could cause trouble, but Murzakanov is expected to eventually get to his grappling and find a ground-and-pound finish.

win by ground and pound
"I think it's just a matter of time before Makonov decides to get to his grappling, eventually taking this fight to the ground and finding that ground and pound finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov, praising his deceptive speed, composure, and power. He compares his striking to Fedor and notes he beat Dustin Jacoby and destroyed Yorgan De Castro. He believes Murzakanov sets traps and will finish Ribeiro by TKO in round one or two. He calls the matchmaking dumb as Murzakanov is a level above.

Finish prediction: TKO in round one or two.
"I'm going to go with Azamat Makanov. I just think his striking's too quick."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov because he is more aggressive and willing to punish openings than Nergosje, who Ribeiro beat. He notes Murzakanov's power delivery and durability, and expects him to pressure Ribeiro early, exploiting Ribeiro's tendency to back up to the fence and his chinny defense. Zane acknowledges Ribeiro's danger but thinks Murzakanov's style is a bad matchup.

"Got to take Marzakanov but it is it'll be a fun fight."
KO (punches) R2 3:18 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 1 45 of 85 52% 48 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:44
Alonzo Menifield 0 15 of 74 20% 19 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 22 of 40 55% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Alonzo Menifield 0 8 of 32 25% 10 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Azamat Murzakanov 1 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Alonzo Menifield 0 7 of 42 16% 9 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 45 of 85 52% 34 of 69 11 of 16 0 of 0 43 of 82 0 of 1 2 of 2
Alonzo Menifield 15 of 74 20% 14 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 73 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 22 of 40 55% 14 of 28 8 of 12 0 of 0 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 23 of 45 51% 20 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 42 0 of 1 2 of 2
Alonzo Menifield 7 of 42 16% 6 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alonzo Menifield vs. Azamat Murzakanov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Murzakanov (-205), Menifield (+170)

Round 1
It took seven fights for the promotion to matchmake a fight between two members of the UFC roster with records in it over .500. Murzakanov (13-0, 3-0 UFC) puts his unbeaten record on the line as the winner of three straight in the Octagon, while powerhouse Menifield (15-4-1, 8-4-1 UFC) hunts to take that “0” away. Fists are sure to fly in a moment, but the light heavyweights first wait for referee Dan Movahedi to check in the fight. They hesitantly touch gloves, and Menifield is the one looking for offense first but is not running at his opponent. Murzakanov times an uppercut as Menifield dips down, and he snaps out a powerful jab. Menifield gets jabbed and reaches with a right hand, and he tries again but is out of range. “The Professional” steps in with a heavy left, and he backs Menifield up and drills him with a clean knee. Menifield shakes it off and blocks a head kick, and Murzakanov bears down on him and lays into him with heavy punches and a knee. Menifield blocks the worst of the blows, but the body shots are landing cleanly on him. Menifield ties him up, and Murzakanov lands a few punches to the back of the head before pushing the Texan to the wire. Murzakanov is warned twice for hooking his fingers in the cage, and again strikes Menifield in the back of the head. They jockey for position against the wall, and fans in the building grow restless while Movahedi asks for more from the two. Menifield breaks away and ducks into an uppercut, and he takes a knee and winds up with a big right hand. Murzakanov is warned for another foul, and he blocks a right hand as they clash heads due to both going forward. Menifield takes a body shot and gives a right back, and he eats a short combination and gets his bell rung. Murzakanov bullies him to the fencing again, and Menifield wants nothing to do with it and breaks off. Murzakanov lashes out with an elbow, and his uppercut clangs off the forehead. The Russian plants a right hand on the dome and a left to follow, and he slips away from a punch and draws some blood over the eye of his foe. Menifield goes up with a kick that is blocked, and he absorbs a flush body kick. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Murzakanov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Murzakanov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Murzakanov

Round 2
The light heavies are ready to get after it, and Movahedi has to ask them to back off before beginning. When they do, Menifield swarms into action, only to walk into a knee and an uppercut. Menifield launches big shots back, but Murzakanov’s defense is solid and his counters are sharp. Murzakanov draws further blood with an uppercut on the left eye that is leaking, and he slips punches and does not stand still long enough to eat big strikes. Menifield shrugs off two uppercuts that would knock out lesser fighters and punch his way into the distance. Murzakanov loops two right hands around the guard, and Menifield tanks vicious punches without batting an eye. Murzakanov drives a knee to the chin and a huge right hand on the temple, and gets caught with a clean uppercut that surprises him. Murzakanov punches and pushes off, and he jumps with a knee and rips a left to the body. Menifield lumbers forward swinging hooks, and Murzakanov is the faster and crisper, and he blocks a head kick. Murzakanov whiffs on a booming uppercut and ties his man up, pushing the Fortis MMA-trained fighter to the wall while watching the clock. Menifield turns him around and shoots low for a double, bailing on it when Murzakanov stands him up and threatens with a counter trip. This results in a reset, and both men attack with uppercuts. Menifield walks face-first into a monster left hand, and he hurts Murzakanov with a sudden counter. This only infuriates the Russian, who swings with bad intentions and rocks Menifield badly.
Three ferocious punches from “The Professional” knock Menifield’s head around, who stumbles back and falls over when retreating. Murzakanov runs at the downed man, bludgeoning him with a hammerfist and a punctuating right hand, with the second shutting Menifield’s lights out.
Movahedi pulls Murzakanov off of the doomed Menifield, and Murzakanov walks off to celebrate with his corner. Menifield comes to, spitting out his mouthpiece, and his team might need to explain what happened. Murzakanov is now 14-0 with 10 knockouts, with this one undoubtedly the biggest of his career.

The Official Result
Azamat Murzakanov def. Alonzo Menifield R2 3:18 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Murzakanov because of his high fight IQ and power, noting Menifield's poor decision-making and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Menifield's talent and power but thinks Murzakanov is too dangerous to make errors against. He hopes Menifield proves him wrong.

"I got to go azamat"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is not a big fan of Murzakanov but cannot pick Menifield after his embarrassing 12-second knockout loss. He thinks Menifield cannot wrestle, knock out Murzakanov (who has never been knocked out), or outpoint him. He predicts a lackluster fight with Murzakanov winning by decision.

"I'm going to take murak conov I kind of have a feeling this fight could suck"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his slightly better volume, punch selection, and durability. He notes that both fighters are low-volume power punchers, but Murzakanov is undefeated and has never been knocked out, while Menifield was knocked out in 12 seconds recently. Cody thinks Murzakanov's cardio is slightly better and that he can win a decision or land the bigger shots. He also mentions the potential for home cooking in Abu Dhabi.

"Mur can be the play for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel picks Murzakanov, citing his cleaner striking and smarter decision-making. He notes Menifield's wins have come against questionable competition and that Murzakanov has a more polished game. He acknowledges Menifield's power but believes Murzakanov has more finesse.

"give me Azam Mikan out there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Both have knockout power, but Murzakanov has more tools. If he can stay safe from Menifield's power, he should find his own knockout within the first two rounds.

finishes within first two rounds
"I still think murak conov has more tools to get the job done here and as long as he can stay safe from the power that uh metafield provides I think he can go out there and eventually find his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul picks Azamat Murzakanov, noting that both fighters have power but Murzakanov has better volume and durability. He mentions that Menifield has cardio issues and has been knocked out before. Paul thinks Murzakanov's technique is superior and that he can outwork Menifield. He also notes that Menifield is always live for a knockout but Murzakanov is the safer pick.

"I think m mukanov is the pick for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov over Alonzo Menifield, trusting Murzakanov's chin more. He notes Menifield has power but is likely to get cracked first. He mentions Murzakanov's sharp hands and power, and that he broke his arm in his last fight but has had time to recover. He criticizes Menifield's performance against Karl Roberson.

"I am going to go with azamat mukanov here even though I haven't been incredibly impressed by his career"
WIN vs Dustin Jacoby
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 64 of 131 48% 96 of 167 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:06
Dustin Jacoby 1 67 of 127 52% 70 of 130 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 21 of 40 52% 37 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Dustin Jacoby 1 26 of 45 57% 29 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 24 of 52 46% 40 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:49
Dustin Jacoby 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 64 of 131 48% 36 of 95 8 of 12 20 of 24 60 of 126 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 67 of 127 52% 51 of 110 12 of 13 4 of 4 64 of 122 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 19 of 39 48% 8 of 24 2 of 4 9 of 11 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 25 of 50 50% 20 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 21 of 40 52% 12 of 27 2 of 4 7 of 9 20 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 26 of 45 57% 20 of 39 5 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 24 of 52 46% 16 of 44 4 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 16 of 32 50% 11 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby as the better technical striker, noting he was ranked 2nd in the world in kickboxing. However, he is not betting because Jacoby lacks power and Murzakanov hits very hard and has comeback KO power. He expects Jacoby to need to point-fight perfectly for 15 minutes to win, which is risky.

"Dustin's gonna be the pick but I'm not gonna bet him because he's gonna have to point fight his way to a win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He cites Jacoby's size, reach, and volume advantages, as well as his good takedown defense and chin. He doubts Murzakanov's cardio and ability to take Jacoby down, and believes Jacoby will outpoint him over three rounds. He notes Murzakanov's power but thinks Jacoby can absorb it.

"give me a Dustin Jacoby to win this fight give me Dustin Jacoby to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody notes Murzakanov is a first-round finisher but low volume, while Jacoby throws high volume (120+ strikes). He thinks Jacoby's reach and cardio will be key, and that Murzakanov's power shots may not be enough to overcome Jacoby's output. He prefers to bet Jacoby live after the first round.

Live bet after first round
"I would take Justin Jacoby but these are big boys that are going to be largely in a striking Affair"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor also picks Jacoby, agreeing that Murzakanov's power-punching style is ill-suited for Jacoby's rangey, technical approach. He notes that Jacoby is durable and has only been knocked out by elite punchers like King Mo and Alex Pereira. Connor believes Murzakanov's lack of combination punching and setup will leave him vulnerable to Jacoby's consistent output and counter-striking.

"I came to the same conclusion. I'm just not that impressed with Azamat Murzakanov."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's range, footwork, and kicks will keep Murzakanov at distance. Murzakanov's cardio and wrestling are questionable, and he tends to fade. Jacoby's disciplined striking and cardio advantage should lead to a clear decision victory. Murzakanov is difficult to finish, so expect a full 15 minutes.

Fight goes to decision
"I think we see Dustin Jacoby control his fight pretty easily from his kicks and utilizing his range and his height Advantage."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul sides with Jacoby's volume and reach advantage (5 inches). He notes Murzakanov may be undersized at 205 and that Jacoby's output should overwhelm him. He agrees with Cody that the live market may offer better value.

"I'll side with the volume again I'm going to decide with the the numbers and Jacoby's got a five inch reach advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby to win by unanimous decision, citing Jacoby's length, footwork, and striking output. He warns Jacoby must avoid a war and use leg kicks from the outside to outpoint Murzakanov, who has fight-ending power but slow starts. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and would prefer -170, but still sides with Jacoby.

Jacoby wins by decision
"Dustin Jacoby will be the pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby, citing his volume, durability, and technical kickboxing as too much for Murzakanov. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-dimensional power puncher who relies on timing and rhythm changes, but Jacoby's jab, kicks, and counter-punching will keep him at range. Zane also points out that Murzakanov's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Jacoby has proven himself against tougher opponents like Khalil Rountree.

"I think Jacoby's volume here carries the day."
WIN vs Devin Clark
TKO (punches) R3 1:18 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 14 of 52 26% 39 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Devin Clark 1 79 of 106 74% 95 of 127 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 6 of 23 26% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devin Clark 0 7 of 15 46% 12 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:52
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 5 of 19 26% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Devin Clark 0 41 of 52 78% 52 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:24
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devin Clark 1 31 of 39 79% 31 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 14 of 52 26% 4 of 29 3 of 7 7 of 16 13 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Devin Clark 79 of 106 74% 41 of 65 31 of 34 7 of 7 24 of 42 9 of 9 46 of 55
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 6 of 23 26% 2 of 11 0 of 2 4 of 10 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Devin Clark 7 of 15 46% 4 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 5 of 19 26% 2 of 12 1 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0
Devin Clark 41 of 52 78% 12 of 21 22 of 24 7 of 7 10 of 18 9 of 9 22 of 25
3 Azamat Murzakanov 3 of 10 30% 0 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Devin Clark 31 of 39 79% 25 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 9 0 of 0 24 of 30
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power and wrestling credentials. He notes Devin Clark has chin issues and Murzakanov is the more dangerous fighter. He likes the value at -170, believing the line should be closer to -200.

Value bet at -170
"i like the value here as well at -170 the line should probably be closer to minus 200. so at minus 170 i think azmat murzakanov is a solid bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to knock out Devin Clark early, likely in the first round. He notes that Murzakanov has power that carries into later rounds, as shown in his last fight. Clark has poor striking defense (46%) and has been finished in six of seven losses. Murzakanov is a much better striker and has dangerous ground and pound. Brady expects a quick finish.

first round knockout
"i think marzicano does finish devin clark here um early on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody picks Murzakanov by knockout, noting he liked him coming into the TUF fight and cashed his flying knee finish. He thinks the line is moving toward Clark, so he may wait for a better price. Cody believes Murzakanov has enough grappling to keep the fight standing and will land a knockout.

Murzakanov by knockout
"i'm gonna you know hold my breath wait and uh maybe snatch an even better price than the minus 145 that we see right now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, dismissing the narrative that his last win was a fluke. He explains that Murzakanov was winning on two scorecards before the finish and that his speed and power will be too much for Devin Clark. Levi notes that Clark tends to blitz with his chin up and that Murzakanov has knockout power, predicting a KO win.

"Give me Murzakanov for the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Azamat Murzakanov

The host expects an early finish from Murzakanov, noting his big power but not much volume. He includes Murzakanov in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a first-round KO.

Under 1.5 rounds (in parlay).
"clark merzokandoff under one and a half obviously expecting a merchant of early finish there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul picks Murzakanov by knockout in round two. He criticizes Clark's durability and low volume, noting Clark has been knocked out before and relies on pressing opponents against the cage. Paul believes Murzakanov has heavier hands and will clip Clark with something like a flying knee.

Murzakanov by knockout round two
"i got mercy on knockout round two"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The host picks Azamat Murzakanov, recalling his previous knockout of Devin Clark in a regional tournament. He trusts Murzakanov's stand-up and grappling, and believes Clark has taken too much damage over his career. He expects a first-round TKO in a firefight, though he acknowledges Clark's power makes it risky.

first round TKO
"i'm going to go with azamat masakanov getting a tko in the first round in a firefight"
WIN vs Tafon Nchukwi
KO (flying knee) R3 0:44 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 43 of 98 43% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Tafon Nchukwi 1 28 of 69 40% 28 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 17 of 40 42% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Tafon Nchukwi 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 1 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 43 of 98 43% 14 of 59 17 of 27 12 of 12 35 of 88 8 of 10 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 28 of 69 40% 25 of 60 3 of 8 0 of 1 26 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 17 of 40 42% 5 of 22 7 of 13 5 of 5 12 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 13 of 31 41% 11 of 24 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 25 of 52 48% 8 of 32 10 of 13 7 of 7 22 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 12 of 31 38% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 10 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, expecting him to use his wrestling despite being known for striking. He notes that Tafon Nchukwi has more high-level experience but tends to back up and slow down under pressure. He believes Murzakanov's forward pressure and wrestling will be the difference.

"i actually think as matt will go to his wrestling here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to win by first-round TKO. He notes Murzakanov is very well-rounded with heavy hands and a solid top game, but has cardio concerns since he's never been to a third round. He thinks Murzakanov can hurt Nchukwi on the feet or take him down and finish him, referencing Nchukwi's poor get-up game against Jung Park. However, he won't bet the fight due to the cardio and low-output risks.

first round tko
"I'm gonna take azamat murzakanov to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev at -106
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, stating that he is a little more experienced, smarter, and more comfortable in the cage. He thinks Murzakanov will point-fight for three rounds or possibly find a finish. Levi acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi's power and potential but believes Murzakanov's experience and fewer mistakes will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with azuma to to get the win here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Murzakanov is a fast, agile striker with good cardio and takedown ability. He can close distance quickly and has power in both hands. Nchukwi has speed and cardio issues, and may overextend. Murzakanov is expected to outwork Nchukwi over 15 minutes or finish late, with a decision at plus 320 being a value play.

Murzakanov via decision at plus 320 is the official prediction.
"I like Azamat here. I think he outworks Tafon over 15 minutes or he potentially finishes Tafon late in this fight. So as an official prediction, I will go with Murzakanov via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov over Tafon Nchukwi, citing his nasty hands and power advantage. He notes that Murzakanov has laid opponents out cold and has grappling to fall back on, referencing a video of him beating Ion Cuțelaba in a grappling competition. He predicts a first-round TKO, trusting Murzakanov's physicality and technique despite Nchukwi having good stand-up of his own.

first round TKO
"i'm going to start straight away with azamat mazakanov here i think he's a favorite for a reason he's a very very promising contender beat some good opponents laid a guy out cold in his last fight"
Paulo Costa - Fight History
TKO R3 1:23 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 34 of 70 48% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
Paulo Costa 1 55 of 80 68% 61 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 21 of 31 67% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
Paulo Costa 0 19 of 31 61% 23 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:49
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 1 15 of 18 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 34 of 70 48% 26 of 59 8 of 11 0 of 0 30 of 65 4 of 5 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 55 of 80 68% 27 of 44 16 of 23 12 of 13 44 of 66 6 of 7 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 7 of 26 26% 6 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 21 of 31 67% 8 of 14 5 of 9 8 of 8 14 of 22 2 of 2 5 of 7
2 Azamat Murzakanov 23 of 38 60% 16 of 30 7 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 19 of 31 61% 9 of 17 7 of 10 3 of 4 15 of 26 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 15 of 18 83% 10 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power, wrestling, and knockdowns in every UFC fight. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's recent good performance but is skeptical of Costa moving up in weight and his history of canceled fights. He expects Azamat to bring pressure and suggests a possible over 1.5 rounds bet.

over 1.5 rounds
"Azamat's going to be the pick. Maybe we get lucky enough for a one and a half round line because I do think this is going to go a little bit longer."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is impressed with Murzakanov's speed, power, takedown defense, and defensive striking. He notes that Murzakanov's cardio has improved and he carries power late. He doubts Paulo Costa's recent performances, citing losses to Vettori, Strickland, and Adesanya. He predicts Murzakanov wins by decision, possibly hurting Costa but not finishing him.

decision
"I like Merzikanov in this matchup... give me Azamat Merzikanov to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa as an underdog, believing he can weather Murzakanov's early storm and outwork him in later rounds. He notes Murzakanov's low volume and Costa's durability, expecting a decision win for Costa.

"I am actually going to take Paul Costa. Very small stakes, but I feel like he weathers the early storm and just outworks him down in rounds two and three."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Connor picks Murzakanov, citing Costa's inconsistency and lack of defensive awareness. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-shot knockout artist with excellent timing and defensive awareness, and that Costa's high-volume, low-defense style leaves him vulnerable. Connor also questions Costa's motivation and his move up to light heavyweight, suggesting that Murzakanov's calm, patient approach will allow him to land a clean shot. He compares Murzakanov to Fedor Emelianenko in terms of timing and cage craft.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I got to take, I got to take Merzicon off just wait, Costa..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel believes Murzakanov is being disrespected and sees him as a heavy hitter with good takedown defense. He thinks Costa gets discouraged in fights and that Murzakanov will box him up.

"I feel like people are disrespecting Mzakanov and I'm going to come out here and pick him and I think that he boxes up Paulo Costa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Vreeland picks Azamat Murzakanov because he believes Murzakanov is criminally underrated and has been disrespected by oddsmakers. He notes that Murzakanov has heavy hands and good wrestling, and that Costa's cardio and discipline are questionable. He also points out that Costa's move up to light heavyweight may not help his psyche or performance.

"I got Murzakanov here, and I think he's being disrespected again, coach."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The host thinks the odds are too aggressive favoring Murzakanov (implied probability 67%) and would cap the fight closer to 50/50. He believes Costa has better cardio and is the more complete striker, while Murzakanov is a better boxer with more power but fades after the first round. He prefers the underdog value on Costa but is not confident in a win.

Likes Costa +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision.
"If I were capping this fight personally, I would probably have it closer to 50/50. I don't really know why Merab Dvalishvili is such a big favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

James picks Murzakanov, citing his power, speed, and accuracy advantage over Costa, who he believes is on a downtrend and not suited for light heavyweight. He expects Murzakanov to hurt Costa early and possibly finish him.

"I did end up picking Azimat Makanov as my official pick. And I do think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Costa's durability and volume should be too much for Murzakanov, who relies heavily on knockout power. Murzakanov has been close to losing in several fights and his power may not phase Costa. Costa's athleticism and counter-striking can neutralize Murzakanov's blitzes. Costa looked sharp against Kopylov and can outpoint or even knock out Murzakanov. This is a winnable fight for Costa at plus money.

Costa wins by knockout
"I'm gonna go Costa here to pull off the upset. I think he ends up landing a big shot on Mzakonov."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul favors Murzakanov due to Costa's questionable commitment and Murzakanov's knockout power. He thinks Costa may be one foot in, one foot out, while Murzakanov's sole purpose is knocking dudes out.

"Makana is a side for me. What about you? Yeah, I'm gonna go with Paulo Costa..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa over Azamat Murzakanov. He is very confident, calling it a 'masterclass'. He believes Costa's speed, body kicks, and technical striking will be too much for Murzakanov, who he thinks is overrated and whose best days are behind him. He predicts a TKO in round two via body kick or similar.

"You're about to witness a Paulo Costa masterclass."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov, emphasizing Costa's psychological fragility and tendency to fade when pressured. He notes that Murzakanov does a lot of maintenance work—cutting off the cage, feinting, and being defensively aware—which will set up his knockout power. Zane also points out that Costa's only recent good performance was against Roman Kopylov, and that moving up to light heavyweight again raises questions about his commitment. He believes Murzakanov's timing and power will be too much for Costa, who is prone to getting hit and may not want to engage.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I think this may be one of those fights where that genuinely is the deciding factor. Yeah, because Marzakonov landing a clean shot on Paula Costa may not be so different from Israel, out of Sonia landing a clean shot …"
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 1 99 of 159 62% 102 of 162 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 48 of 104 46% 48 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 1 34 of 54 62% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Paulo Costa 0 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Paulo Costa 0 33 of 48 68% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 99 of 159 62% 34 of 89 41 of 46 24 of 24 87 of 141 3 of 3 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 48 of 104 46% 29 of 79 14 of 20 5 of 5 48 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 34 of 54 62% 13 of 33 7 of 7 14 of 14 25 of 39 0 of 0 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 11 of 27 40% 5 of 18 3 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 32 of 57 56% 10 of 31 18 of 22 4 of 4 31 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 5 of 8 2 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 33 of 48 68% 11 of 25 16 of 17 6 of 6 31 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 21 of 45 46% 15 of 39 6 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)

Round 1
Without a win since 2022, and no knockout victories in over seven years, Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC) is back in the Octagon after a while away planning on getting a little more green on his ledger. Standing in his way will be fellow knockout artist Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC), with the heavy-hitting middleweights combining for 23 strike stoppages in their 28 pro wins. Referee Herb Dean will don his proverbial hard hat and try to avoid any errant swings. The fighters do not touch gloves.
Costa wants to party immediately, surging into action with punches and kicks to put the Russian on his back foot. Kopylov responds with a left hand that reddens the face of his opponent, and he gets caught with a right hand to sustain a little damage on his mug as well. Costa scores a kick to the inner thigh, bouncing in and out and just brushing the ear with a right hand. “Borrachinha” whips a kick to the ribs after it, and the two men catch one another with single punches. Kopylov recovers first, bouncing in to kick Costa in the stomach. He then kicks the calf, checking one coming back his direction. Costa jabs and opens up with a left hook, with his right hand chambered back ready to go.
Costa works the inside and outside of his foe’s front leg, and Kopylov times one kick to go upstairs with a left hand. Costa drives a right hand to the sternum, and his head kick shakes the hair of the Russian without causing much damage otherwise. He does hammer Kopylov’s front leg with another calf kick, and he goes on the other side to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov drills the midsection with a fierce kick, parrying a high kick aimed at his dome and pushing Costa back with a pair of punches. Costa goes to the body multiple times, chaining a right hand behind it that dislodges Kopylov’s mouthpiece and dropping him to his knees. Costa hammers the hurt Russian with short but powerful punches, and Kopylov stands up and circles away while Dean collects his mouthpiece. Dean finds the right moment to give Kopylov his gumshield back, and Kopylov thanks him by landing once more on the Brazilian before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
As the second round begins, coach and commentator Din Thomas issues pungent criticisms towards Kopylov’s corner for their questionable advice about how Kopylov was succeeding. When the fighters get going in Round 2, Costa is quick to get in his groove, making Kopylov react every time he throws. This frees Costa up to pick his shots, measuring targets to the body and head when finding openings. The power of Costa makes Kopylov think twice about swinging more than once in a row, as he digs two kicks to the body. Costa rifles a right hand down the middle, walking the Russian down to club him a few more times.
Costa dips and rips an uppercut that catches Kopylov off-guard, but it is his straight right hand that damages Kopylov. Costa blasts the body with a kick, not selling out to force a finish as his power strikes are breaking Kopylov down. Costa goes from body shots to big right hands, and Kopylov is stuck not knowing what to do. He briefly presents in a traditional martial arts stance with his elbow high, but Costa pushes that out of the way. Kopylov thanks him for this with a snappy jab, but it is a single shot as Costa evades anything else. Costa picks and pokes with the most painful seeming jabs and front kicks one can imagine, as his teep kick actually lifts Kopylov off the ground once. He chops down the leg a bit more like a lumberjack, and his body work opens up big rights. Kopylov takes body shots on his way in, breaking up what he wants to do other than a reverse crescent kick. Costa marches through the kicks and punches the Russian square in the face. The round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Costa marches out to the center of the Octagon to further establish dominance, hammering his Russian adversary’s front with a few kicks. Kopylov splits the guard when leaping in, but Costa is able to back off and wail on him with kicks to any target. Kopylov catches Costa off-balance with another blitz, only for Costa to rebound off the wire and jump forward to clip Kopylov again. The two hand-fight while in opposing stances, with Kopylov kicking the ribs and punching high as Costa appears to be slowing. “Borrachinha” attacks the body and counters a rushing Kopylov with a right hand, and he points at the Russian after tagging him. Costa loads up with a right to the body and then a right to the head. Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a massive right hand that stings Costa, but Costa wags his finger at him.
The mere wag of his finger dissuades Kopylov from diving in to keep attacking, allowing Costa to shake off any cobwebs and launch additional right hands to the busted nose and swollen midsection. Kopylov rifles a left hand up top, standing straight up and eating a low kick. He goes after the Brazilian, lobbing short combos in punches as Costa sticks his tongue out at him. This encourages Kopylov to throw more, only to get caught and backed off by body shots from Costa. The former title challenger shoots for a single, bailing on it and trying a second time so he can knee Kopylov in the liver. Kopylov springs forward behind a crisp right hand, only to slow down right in front of Costa and take right hands on the eye socket. Kopylov swings hard, and Costa rushes towards him to get a clinch. When he lets it go, he strikes the body and staggers Kopylov with a massive overhand right. The Russian is tough as old beef jerky, who bounces back and goes for broke as the fight concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)

The Official Result
Paulo Costa def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.

"Roman's going to be the pick quite literally because I don't think Paula is going to use all of his tools."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.

Kopylov by late finish or decision
"I'm taking Copilov here. I'll take Copilov to either get a late finish or win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.

"I got to pick Roman Kopylov. 100%."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.

"In terms of a prediction, I expect him to win. And I expect him to point out point Costa utilizing some grappling and striking to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.

Paulo Costa lands less than 63.5 significant strikes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going with Roman Copilov over Paulo Costa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.

"I just don't trust Costa to show up the right way for Kopylov."
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (split) (46–49, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 182 of 402 45% 182 of 402 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Paulo Costa 0 158 of 266 59% 158 of 266 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 43 72% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 32 of 49 65% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 45 of 83 54% 45 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 34 of 54 62% 34 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 39 of 88 44% 39 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean Strickland 0 49 of 105 46% 49 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 182 of 402 45% 104 of 258 67 of 127 11 of 17 179 of 397 3 of 5 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 158 of 266 59% 28 of 100 84 of 111 46 of 55 157 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 24 of 56 42% 5 of 18 16 of 35 3 of 3 24 of 54 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 31 of 43 72% 4 of 10 17 of 21 10 of 12 30 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 25 of 70 35% 12 of 40 11 of 24 2 of 6 25 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 32 of 49 65% 2 of 17 16 of 17 14 of 15 32 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 45 of 83 54% 28 of 56 15 of 25 2 of 2 45 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 34 of 54 62% 7 of 19 17 of 23 10 of 12 34 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 39 of 88 44% 22 of 61 14 of 22 3 of 5 38 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 29 of 53 54% 9 of 26 13 of 19 7 of 8 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 49 of 105 46% 37 of 83 11 of 21 1 of 1 47 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 32 of 67 47% 6 of 28 21 of 31 5 of 8 32 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paulo Costa vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-245), Costa (+205)

Round 1
Fresh off a close decision loss to surrender his title, Strickland (28-6, 15-6 UFC) is back in for another five-round contest. With no belt or main event between them, the UFC still decided to schedule this matchup for 25 minutes. He stands across the cage from Brazilian marauder Costa (14-3, 6-3 UFC), who celebrates about 80% of his wins via knockout even as he has not landed one since 2018. Referee Jason Herzog will take control of the cage for this co-main attraction, and possibly due to their back-and-forth on fight week, they do not touch gloves. Costa rushes out of his corner to strike first, where he lands two hearty leg kicks early. Strickland jabs him back, and Costa chops at him with another kick. Strickland raises his leg preemptively to protect against a few others, with damage showing on it less than one minute in. Strickland walks forward despite the kicks, and he prods out a front kick of his own a few times. Costa catches Strickland walking in with a check left hook, and he swats away subsequent front kicks so he can jab the midsection of his foe. Costa pushes off the chest with a much heavier push kick, and Strickland relies on his own front kick again and again. Even if it does not land, he is making Costa think about it. Costa comes up short on an overhand right, but he does connect with a calf kick that is partially checked. They trade jabs, and the Brazilian aims a one-two to the body. Costa clacks a kick off the calf, and Strickland raises his leg up and keeps walking forward tossing out constant front kicks. Costa circles away and fakes a high kick to draw a reaction, and he kicks low to follow. A jab from “The Eraser” reddens the former champ’s nose, and he kicks Strickland in the side and jabs him in the chest. Practically every other step, Strickland is pushing out with the ball of his foot at Costa’s chest and body. Strickland catches a kick and knocks Costa down with a right hand, but Costa hops back upright without batting an eye. Costa spins with a back kick, and Strickland continues pressuring him with these continuous front kicks. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
Strickland does not sit between rounds, instead standing up and watching Costa while receiving advance. He wants to keep fighting, even if he has to take a break. As soon as they resume, Strickland goes right back to his kick spam, as if he were a young child playing a fighting game hitting the same button for one specific strike a hundred times. Costa loads up on power shots to back him off momentarily, and he sits down on a loud low kick that makes Strickland pause. A second kick hurts Strickland’s front leg further, and Strickland’s kick-heavy approach wanes momentarily. Costa attacks that lead leg once more, and he lands a left hand but starts to back off from Strickland’s pressure. Strickland starts prodding his front kicks once more, and Costa stands firm and takes a one-two across the forward bow. Strickland closes distance with this front kick when he is not throwing it directly, and it keeps Costa busy thinking about it enough to stifle most of his own offense. Strickland’s nullifying approach makes the crowd restless, and Costa skips away and hacks down with a low kick that is checked hard. Strickland pokes with kicks to the body, and he snaps the head back with a jab while checking a calf kick. A front kick leads to two punches from the ex-champ, and Costa explodes at him pursuing a takedown, but Strickland tosses him aside. Costa delivers two solid low kicks, and Strickland lifts his leg to shake it out and keeps a poker face. Costa spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the guard, and he backs away as Strickland jabs him again and again. Strickland connects with a stiff jab, and he drops Costa to a knee as the pressure appears to be wilting the Brazilian. Costa stands and sticks his tongue out, and Strickland does not falter in his gameplan of front kicks, jabs and the occasional right hand. This plays out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
It takes all of a few seconds for Strickland to turn the game plan back on of front kick after stifling front kick. Even if every other kick actually lands, they add up, and Costa’s midsection is marking up fast. Costa digs a pair of left hands to the body, and he pounds his own kick to the ribs and then goes low. Strickland checks the latter, and he leans back to avoid a left hook. Strickland powers forward, loading up on a combination until Costa bounces off the cage wall and sticks his tongue out. Costa whips a high kick up and it is blocked, and he strikes low and has his kick checked hard. Costa limps away, and Strickland walks him down while touching up him with jabs. Strickland jabs and jabs again, and he pushes Costa away when Costa rushes at him for a level change. Costa thinks about spinning with a strike, but he just twirls around without throwing anything. Strickland chips away at him with jabs and front kicks, and he evades a spinning wheel kick that zips past his nose. Costa lands a pair of low kicks, and the second makes him hobble away. Costa jabs to the body, and he gets his guts kicked a few more times. Strickland comes up short on two hooks, but the straight strikes land regularly. Two jabs, a front kick and two more come from the former champ, who is cruising while Costa is fading. Costa puts all his power into an overhand right, and Strickland dodges as it glances past him. Strickland strings three heavier punches together, and Costa skirts away and tosses a half-hearted right hand that surprises Strickland. The former champion rips an uppercut as Costa ducks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The middleweights tap gloves as they enter the championship rounds, and Strickland does not need much time before revving up his engines to steadily work Costa over. Costa flails with heavy strikes, and he gets a right hand in, but Strickland lands three of his own, a body kick and a few more jabs. The Brazilian gets off a low kick, and he reaches Strickland with a number of jabs. Costa swipes out with a left hook, and when he has a leg kick checked, he almost falls over from the impact. Costa sells out for a head kick on the other side, and Strickland keeps walking him down and protecting himself from the telegraphed heavy blows. Strickland presses ever forward, jabbing the body and head with punches and front kicks. The approach has been steady and effective, if not overly entertaining. The crowd expresses its restlessness as Costa swings for the fences but hits air, and Strickland does not load up on much while simply outworking his opponent. Costa’s head kicks are blocked, his hooks go wide and his leg kicks are largely checked. Costa gets off a front kick to the body that has much more impact than Strickland’s, and he scores a calf kick that is not checked. He turns and fakes one type of kick so that he can set up a side kick that lands flush on the midsection. Strickland pushes him back with jabs and twos, and Costa slams his left hand on the liver and dings the front leg with another powerful kick. Costa’s kicks are not being checked like before, and Strickland frowns when absorbing them. Costa lands a punch to the body, and he absorbs four punches from up close before backing away. Strickland wings a right hand that bounces into the ear, and Costa stumbles away as the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
The fifth round has been reached by the middleweights, and they touch gloves presumably one last time. Costa tosses out two punches and a low kick, and Strickland lifts his leg up to defend it. Costa kicks it again, and Strickland meanders forward with a front kick from either leg. Costa plants his shin on the front leg of his opponent again as Strickland is coming at him, and Strickland rolls to avoid a right hand and checks a low kick to follow. Costa winds up on power punches, and one more leg kick gets checked. Strickland catches a body kick and makes Costa pay for it with a pair of straight left hands before releasing the leg, and the two throw hands at the same time. A body kick from “The Eraser” backs Strickland off for a moment, but Strickland gets back into his rhythm of jab to front kick territory. Strickland has his own body struck from kicks and punches, and Costa doubles down on body shots. Costa kicks the body on the other side, and Strickland jabs him and pushes him away with a teep kick. Strickland’s jab is on point, disrupting Costa’s sweeping strikes. Costa goes to the body with a stern left hand, and Strickland no-sells it and works the body with front kick after front kick. Costa just misses on a one-two, and he barrels forward and pushes Strickland back but does not change levels. Strickland misses the mark on a pair of punches, and Costa snaps his head back with a power jab and sits down on a low kick. Costa reaches his man with a left hook, and he is driven away with a handful of jabs. Costa thinks about pursuing a single, but he gives it up and spins with a back fist as he eats a jab. Costa sits down on a few punches, and Strickland pours it on with a barrage of punches. As Costa bounces off the fence, Strickland boots him in the raised guard with a head kick with enough impact to still put Costa on his seat. Costa springs back up, and Strickland runs at him with a jumping front kick as the long engagement comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Paulo Costa via Split Decision (46-49, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Angelo picks Sean Strickland because of his dependability and the Philly shell defense. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's power and cardio but believes Strickland's volume and durability will win a decision, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Costa might try wrestling after seeing Dricus du Plessis take Strickland down, but still favors Strickland.

"I am going to pick Sean Strickland here because he is dependable and I trust the Philly shell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sean Strickland

Big Brady likes Sean Strickland at 8,800 because it's a five-round fight, giving Strickland 25 minutes to rack up volume (6 significant strikes per minute). He thinks Strickland's pace will add up and he could even get a late finish. He also likes Paulo Costa in cash games for the same five-round volume, noting Costa's durability and potential takedowns. He sees Costa as a live dog but expects Strickland to win a decision or late finish.

Sean Strickland wins by decision or late finish, Paulo Costa goes five rounds and scores well in cash
"I don't mind some Shan Strickland 8,800 just because it is five rounds and he's going to have 25 minutes to rack up that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Strickland, highlighting his jab and reach advantage. He notes Strickland's durability and volume, and believes Costa's power is overrated (last KO of note was Uriah Hall in 2018). Cody expects Strickland to drown Costa with pressure and volume, possibly getting a late stoppage. He mentions Strickland's experience in five-round fights and Costa's lack thereof.

Strickland inside the distance
"Strickland's a former champion... his number one weapon is his jab... he's got a 76 inch reach which is long for the division... I got Strickland by stoppage."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Daniel notes that Costa can compete at this level but questions if he can win. He highlights Strickland's insane output and Philly shell, and expects Strickland to edge a decision with higher volume. He acknowledges either could get knocked out but leans Strickland.

"I'm gonna lean him with Strickland in that fight"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Daniel Vreeland also picks Costa, agreeing with Fox. He was initially concerned about the 25-minute fight but was reassured by Costa's performance against Whittaker. Vreeland notes Strickland won't grapple and Costa is a decent grappler anyway. He sees risk standing with Costa for 25 minutes but believes Costa's power and durability give him the edge.

"I'm glad you didn't talk me out of Costa because he was the one I had my name down"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Jeff Fox picks Paulo Costa at +200, citing that Strickland's five-round losses (to Jared Cannonier and Dricus du Plessis) came because opponents landed harder shots that judges value more. He believes Costa will land the bigger shots and notes Costa's strong performance against Robert Whittaker. Fox thinks Costa can take three rounds and possibly win a split decision, and he's not worried about Strickland wrestling.

split decision
"I'm gonna say Paulo Costa is going to come in here he's going to land the bigger shots"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

The host believes Costa's power punching is the key to beating Strickland, who has struggled against power punchers. Costa's ability to land big shots over five rounds could lead to a knockout or sway judges with damage. The host notes Costa's recent activity and motivation, and sees value at +205, picking Costa by knockout.

knockout
"I'm going to take Costa here, I'm going to take Costa by knockout as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul picks Strickland, emphasizing volume advantage. He notes Costa can land big shots but lacks volume; Strickland will put up 200+ significant strikes while Costa struggles to reach 100. He expects Strickland by decision or late stoppage, and mentions Strickland's reach advantage (76-inch reach vs Costa's 72-inch). He also notes Costa's poor body language and cardio in past fights.

Strickland by decision or late stoppage
"I feel like this fight really comes down to volume... Strickland's going to put up 200 significant strikes and Costa would be lucky to get up to upwards of 100."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, noting that Costa is inconsistent and has been effectively jabbed before. He believes Strickland can survive Costa's early pressure and take over in later rounds. He predicts Strickland by TKO in rounds 4 or 5. He acknowledges Costa's dangerous right hand and head kick but trusts Strickland's durability.

Strickland by TKO round 4 or 5
"I'm going to go with Strickland to win this fight by TKO in the later rounds"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 95 of 175 54% 95 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 67 of 151 44% 67 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robert Whittaker 0 32 of 55 58% 32 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 95 of 175 54% 63 of 143 4 of 4 28 of 28 95 of 172 0 of 3 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 67 of 151 44% 39 of 117 8 of 12 20 of 22 67 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 38 of 62 61% 26 of 50 1 of 1 11 of 11 38 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 27 of 49 55% 16 of 38 4 of 4 7 of 7 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 32 of 55 58% 20 of 43 3 of 3 9 of 9 32 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 26 of 54 48% 16 of 43 2 of 3 8 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 25 of 58 43% 17 of 50 0 of 0 8 of 8 25 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 14 of 48 29% 7 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-225), Costa (+185)

Round 1
For the co-main event, the particulars of this middleweight matchup are extremely close. Separated by four months in age, one inch in both height and reach—but not both for one man—and very similar takedown defense rates, Whittaker (24-7, 15-5 UFC) vs. Costa (14-2, 6-2 UFC) appears to be a quite well-matched fight. Both men do prefer to end fights via knockout, but it has been since 2017 for the former and 2018 for the latter to procure a stoppage via strikes. Knowing this could go the long haul but be quite a fun one, referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat. Both men are incredibly intense and do not touch gloves, and instead they go right after it. Perhaps having studied the strategy of Israel Adesanya against Costa, Whittaker goes right to low kick after low kick. Costa throws back with a left hand that reddens up Whittaker’s cheek, and he blocks a big high kick in the nick of time. Costa checks a leg kick, but Whittaker continues to target the lead wheel. Costa attacks another head kick, and Whittaker sees it coming and defends it, but the sheer impact knocks him to the side. Costa’s power punches redden up Whittaker’s face, and Whittaker goes after another kick down low. Costa partially checks it, and his leg begins to swell. Whittaker dips back to counter a lunging Costa with a big right, and when Costa strikes back, Whittaker beans him with a left hook. Costa stuns Whittaker with a straight left hand, but Whittaker rushes at him and tags him with a few punches. Costa smiles and laughs, and Whittaker punches him in the face again a few times. Whittaker blitzes with a right hand and a harsh calf kick, and Costa is struggling to plant on the lead leg after about three minutes as his shin swells. Costa prepares to check another kick, and he leans to the proper direction as a blazing fast right hand from the Aussie soars past him. Costa eats a sharp jab and walks into a second, and he flicks out a power jab in response. Whittaker charges with a right down hand down the middle, and Costa smiles. “Bobby Knuckles” scores a low kick on one leg, and when Costa switches stances, Whittaker lands one on the other side. Costa allows Whittaker to crowd him with offense so he can dig some body shots, but he does not escape unscathed as Whittaker targets him up top. Whittaker kicks him in the chest with a side kick, and Costa spins suddenly with a wheel kick that rings the former champ’s bell. Whittaker, hurt and wobbled like a baby deer, bites down on his mouthguard and swings for the fences. The round ends with the two middleweights brawling, and that single power strike might have stolen the Brazilian the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner no worse the wear, and his sea legs appear to be beneath him. Whittaker goes after low kicks and connects with a few punches up top. Costa responds with his own calf kick and a right hand, and he zooms up a head kick from his lead leg that slams into Whittaker’s guard. Costa snaps the head back with a jab, and Whittaker gives him two back to think about. Whittaker kicks Costa upside the head, and Costa eats it and sticks his tongue out. Costa connects with a vicious leg kick, and Whittaker’s lead leg is welting up as well. Whittaker responds immediately with his own calf kick, and a responding jab from Costa busts up the former champ’s nose. Costa keeps pushing out the jab, intercepting Whittaker until his thumb slides out and jabs into Whittaker’s eye. Costa smiles sheepishly, and Whittaker gets a pause. Whittaker wants to get right back to it, and he drives kicks into Costa’s lead leg on the restart and swings hard up high. Costa continues to jab up his foe’s bloody mug, but Whittaker is outlanding him and doing so with power. Whittaker rolls his shoulder to move with a punch, and he staggers Costa with a right hand and a thudding calf kick. Whittaker winds up with a power right hand, and a left that follows gives Costa further pause. Whittaker delivers a vicious kick to the same spot, and he unloads with a combination that knock Costa’s head around like a heavy bag. Costa waves him on, but Whittaker does not bite and instead settles back down to chipping and working on the lead leg. Costa goes up high twice with two kicks that are blocked, and he hops back to avoid the brunt of a leg kick and a right hand. Whittaker gets off a side kick to the torso, and Costa prods out a jab to back Whittaker off. Costa whips a kick right by Whittaker’s beard, and he absorbs a flush low kick that makes his leg wobble. Whittaker hits Costa with everything he has, but the Brazilian just absorbs it and smiles. Costa wanders forward, but the round ends before he can reach out with anything.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker

Round 3
The last round opens with Costa running out to the center of the cage, and he lets go with a one-two. Whittaker shrugs it off and powers out a pair of jabs. Costa jabs the body back, and he swipes out with a calf kick that breezes past the front leg. Whittaker darts out with a left hook that lands on the temple, and the two clash with kicks at the same time. Whittaker’s jab is finding its home, and his leg kick does as well. Costa connects with a stern low kick, and Whittaker crowds him and cracks him with a huge right hand. Costa goes back to the leg kick, and Whittaker bounces back away from the looping shots that come at him. Costa drives a knee to the chest to get Whittaker’s attention, and they crash together and disengage. Whittaker checks a kick and stumbles Costa with a left hook, but Costa recovers himself and eats another left hand. Whittaker races forward with a fierce right hand, and Costa’s chin is granite as he takes these shots that would fell heavyweights. Costa takes a hard leg kick and points at the groin to draw a brawl, and Whittaker does not throw his game plan in the trash and swing recklessly. They trade leg kicks, and Costa pushes out a front kick. Whittaker reaches out with two left hands, and he blocks a head kick that flies at him. Whittaker gets off another swiping left, and he pokes a jab out to follow before nearly kicking out Costa’s lead leg. Costa strikes with a jab, and Whittaker does the same and dips a hook. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, and Costa is right there in his face to jab him back. Costa attempts another spinning wheel kick, but he misses, and Whittaker makes him pay with a short combination. Whittaker lashes out with another brief combo, and they both unleash fiery kicks that land at the same time. These two are going strike for strike as time ticks off the clock in this absolute blood and guts affair, and the damage from Whittaker’s blows have finally drawn some blood. Whittaker wings a left hand, and his leaping strikes find the mark as he backs off to avoid counters. Costa walks through a few left hands, and he fires off a high kick. Whittaker shoots for a takedown, bails on it, and comes up top with two mighty hooks. Both middleweights raise their arms after a terrific hard-fought battle, and time expires. This was worth the wait.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)

The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Paulo Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
WIN vs Luke Rockhold
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 0 73 of 103 70% 106 of 137 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:28
Luke Rockhold 0 51 of 70 72% 57 of 78 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 0 27 of 34 79% 56 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
Luke Rockhold 0 19 of 23 82% 19 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Paulo Costa 0 30 of 42 71% 31 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Luke Rockhold 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
3 Paulo Costa 0 16 of 27 59% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Luke Rockhold 0 9 of 12 75% 15 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 73 of 103 70% 37 of 61 33 of 39 3 of 3 53 of 80 3 of 4 17 of 19
Luke Rockhold 51 of 70 72% 23 of 40 23 of 25 5 of 5 48 of 67 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 27 of 34 79% 13 of 19 13 of 14 1 of 1 11 of 15 2 of 3 14 of 16
Luke Rockhold 19 of 23 82% 6 of 8 11 of 13 2 of 2 17 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 30 of 42 71% 14 of 22 14 of 18 2 of 2 29 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 23 of 35 65% 11 of 23 9 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 16 of 27 59% 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
Luke Rockhold 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Angelo picks Paulo Costa over Luke Rockhold. He describes Costa as a massive middleweight with power, output, and surprising cardio, noting his relentless pace even when exhausted. Angelo acknowledges Rockhold's credentials as a former champion and talented wrestler, but believes the three-year layoff and age (38) are too much to overcome against a top-ranked opponent. He mentions that Costa has good takedown defense (80%) and that he already placed a moneyline bet on Costa at better odds earlier.

Placed moneyline bet on Paulo Costa at better odds earlier in the week.
"palo costa absolutely the pick i love luke rockhold but man first fight back in three years is who they give you that's a tough go"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Big Brady is confident in Paulo Costa. He notes that Luke Rockhold hasn't fought in three years, hasn't won in nearly five years, and was knocked out in his last fight. Rockhold's chin is gone, and he looked slow and washed against Jan Błachowicz. Costa is younger, more active, hits hard, and has solid cardio. Brady expects Costa to knock Rockhold out in the first or second round. He mentions Costa's takedown defense is good, so Rockhold's wrestling won't work.

Costa by KO, round 2
"i think costa knocks him out i think austin knocks him out in the first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa but expresses concerns about Costa's weight cut and his poor grappling off his back. He notes Rockhold's durability issues but acknowledges Rockhold's BJJ could be a threat if Costa gets taken down. Ultimately, he trusts Costa's power and finishing ability.

"i'm back on the holocaust team yeah i think he'd be a fool not to it seems too good to be true but i try not to overthink it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to knock out Luke Rockhold in the first round. He notes that Rockhold's chin has been suspect for a long time, citing knockouts by Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, Yoel Romero, and Jan Błachowicz. He believes Rockhold hasn't fought since 2019 and is coming back for a paycheck, which is a bad sign. Levi praises Costa's takedown defense (stuffing Yoel Romero's takedowns) and his power, and thinks Costa is catching Rockhold at the right time. He also mentions that Costa looked back to form in his last fight against Marvin Vettori.

Mentions he missed the line at -255 and now it's -360, so he's not betting but would have liked Costa at a better price. Says Costa will knock out Rockhold in the first round.
"I think he's gonna come out here and knock Luke rockhold out in the first round so yeah I got Paula Costa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Costa should knock out Rockhold, who has a weak chin and has been inactive for three years. However, the -350 price is too high for a finish-reliant fighter. The host prefers Costa by KO at -120 (now -170) but is passing on the moneyline. He warns that if Costa doesn't finish early, Rockhold could make it a tough fight.

Costa by KO was preferred at -120 but line moved to -170; host passes.
"I'm gonna go costa costa ko but please please please do not put all your eggs in this polycaster basket."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Paul picks Costa to knock out Rockhold inside the first two rounds. He notes Rockhold's chin issues and long layoff, and likes the under 10 minutes on Prize Picks. He mentions Costa's wild card nature but thinks he's in great shape for this fight.

under 10 minutes (fight time) on Prize Picks
"i think costa knocks them out inside the first two rounds on prize picks they've got uh this fight set at fight time 10 minutes and it's like at some of the books right now it's like minus 175 minus …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Paulo Costa

The Guru predicts Paulo Costa wins by first-round KO. He describes Costa rushing across the cage, landing a big kick, and then clipping Rockhold with a shot. He sees Costa slipping Rockhold's jab, landing a right hand and body shot, then a switch kick to the body. He envisions Costa blocking Rockhold's kicks and landing an inside leg kick, then a body kick, and finally a left hook that drops Rockhold about two and a half minutes into the first round.

KO in round 1
"i've got immediate paulo costa ko"
LOSS vs Marvin Vettori
Decision (unanimous) (48–46, 48–46, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 163 of 260 62% 172 of 269 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Paulo Costa 0 190 of 346 54% 214 of 373 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 39 of 68 57% 42 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Marvin Vettori 0 36 of 65 55% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Marvin Vettori 0 17 of 29 58% 19 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 55 56% 47 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
4 Marvin Vettori 0 30 of 47 63% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 49 of 81 60% 53 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
5 Marvin Vettori 0 45 of 66 68% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 62 50% 32 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 163 of 260 62% 82 of 174 67 of 72 14 of 14 154 of 249 5 of 5 4 of 6
Paulo Costa 190 of 346 54% 154 of 307 33 of 36 3 of 3 168 of 316 21 of 29 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 35 of 53 66% 13 of 29 18 of 20 4 of 4 34 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 39 of 68 57% 34 of 62 5 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 36 of 65 55% 14 of 42 18 of 19 4 of 4 35 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 40 of 80 50% 29 of 69 10 of 10 1 of 1 36 of 72 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 17 of 29 58% 13 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 5
Paulo Costa 31 of 55 56% 23 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 27 of 51 3 of 3 1 of 1
4 Marvin Vettori 30 of 47 63% 16 of 32 11 of 12 3 of 3 28 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 49 of 81 60% 41 of 73 7 of 7 1 of 1 38 of 66 11 of 15 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 45 of 66 68% 26 of 47 17 of 17 2 of 2 43 of 64 1 of 1 1 of 1
Paulo Costa 31 of 62 50% 27 of 57 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori

Round 1
What can be said about this mess of a fight formerly scheduled at middleweight? On just a few days’ notice, this 185-pound tilt between Costa (13-1, 5-1 UFC) and Vettori (17-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC) transformed into a 195-pound catchweight affair before shifting to light heavyweight the night before weigh-ins. There is more bad blood in this fight than all of the rest of the 13 matches tonight combined, and they would like more than anything to smash the other. They nearly get into a fracas as Costa enters the cage. Referee Jason Herzog will be holding on tight for this flamethrowing main event, and it comes to the surprise of no one that there is no glove touch. Costa takes the center of the cage, and he misses with a high kick but pounds Vettori’s inside thigh with his shin. Vettori launches his own head kick, and Costa sees it coming a mile away and batters Vettori’s lead leg with a kick. Costa has a high kick blocked, and one to the body knocks him off-balance. Vettori charges after him, having landed the counter that may have actually dropped Costa, but Costa backs him off with a thudding body kick. Costa catches Vettori on the way in with a short right hand, and they push one another into the wall as Vettori is in the driver’s seat. Costa again fights his way out, and he eats a left hand and may be stung from one that comes after. Costa scores a right and a body kick, and the two trade vicious right hands. Costa sits down on a body kick again, and Vettori’s left arm is down to block it. Costa lands to the body with a punch, and Vettori counters him with five punches. At the midpoint of the round, Costa appears to be breathing heavy already, and Vettori walks through a leg kick to pressure his opponent. The Brazilian swats away punches, but Vettori is on him working him over with a combination. Costa shrugs it off and fires a body kick off, and Vettori pushes through another that does not have nearly the impact as previous ones. Vettori jabs a few times to back Costa away, and he blocks an overhand right as Costa is trying to load up on single shots. Costa has a head kick get through, but Vettori is not fazed as he pops Costa with a jab and then a one-two. Vettori lands a few punches as Costa shells up, and a left hand pierces the guard as Costa waves him on for more. Vettori sticks and moves, ignores a kick and punch to the midsection, and lands a straight right hand. Right before the round ends, Costa has a head kick zoom by the Italian’s face.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 2
They meet in the middle and stick out straight punches, and Vettori triples up on a jab before scoring a body kick. Costa’s is much heavier in response, but Vettori shrugs it off to land a quartet of significant punches. Costa gets backed up to the fence, but he lands a right hand that Vettori is able to partially block. Vettori lands a body shot, and Costa suddenly surprises him with a head kick. Vettori is rocked and falls back towards the fence, and “Borrachinha” chases him down with a body kick and a swarm of punches. As Vettori clears his head, he lands a few knees, but Costa is right in his face with another shin to the chin. Vettori’s beard is quite something, as he seems to have his footing beneath him again as he throws right back at his Brazilian foe. They trade kicks, and Vettori has a pair of punches collide with the guard. Costa’s body shots continue to land, but the looping punches are not as accurate as Vettori is able to slip them. The momentum keeps shifting between the two, as Costa gets Vettori’s attention with a punch salvo. Vettori just ducks when a head kick is aimed at his head, but he steps face-first into a left hook. Vettori uses Costa’s forward momentum against him, hitting a well-timed trip to put the Brazilian on the canvas. Costa fights back to his feet and walks up the wall, and he gains separation. Costa reaches out with a body kick and an opened right hand, and his fingers jab the Italian in the eye. Herzog is aware of this as he allows Vettori all the time he needs to recover, bringing in the doctor just in case. As he had already been warned for something from Herzog, Herzog deducts one point for the eye poke. Costa is incensed but there is nothing he can do, so the two get back to business with kicks from both sides. Costa sits down on a pair of head kicks, and Vettori defends himself but the sheer impact moves him. Vettori lances the guard with a pair of punches, and he goes low with a kick as he punches his way into a clinch. Vettori pressures Costa against the wire with a steady diet of punches, and Costa looses a huge right hand that Vettori sees coming. A glancing left hand gets Vettori’s attention, and Vettori blasts him back with a left hook. Both men wobble briefly but they keep it together, to end the round with a flurry.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Vettori
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Vettori

Round 3
Vettori is amped up to start off Round 3, putting a jab in Costa’s face a few times. Costa comes up a millimeter short with a head kick, and Vettori is right there to work the body as Costa puts his foot down. Costa slips a punch to land a right, and he takes a step back and absorbs a body kick. Vettori puts a pace on Costa as he pressures him, and when he lands a few punches, Costa slaps his belly to entice him to throw more. Costa wings a spinning wheel kick, and it skims off Vettori’s hair. As he lands, he catches Vettori with a right hand, but the Italian is able to run out of the way and recover. “The Italian Dream” goes right back to his aggressive ways, landing right hands and busting Costa’s nose open. As they clinch up, Vettori has a single elbow pound into Costa’s face, and Costa grins widely. Costa backs his foe off with a straight right hand to the body, but Vettori is undaunted, as he walks the Brazilian down to throw hands. Three punches split the guard of Costa, who circles off the fence to not take more damage. Vettori lands a single kick, and Costa crashes forward to hit his own unexpected takedown and put the Italian on his back. Costa gets kicked off, and he jumps back down to fight it. When Vettori gives his neck up, Costa jumps guard for a guillotine choke. Vettori does not appear concerned, as he wriggles his neck out and puts Costa flat on his back. Vettori begins to get his ground-and-pound going while Costa closes his guard, with punches and elbows to keep Costa guessing. As Vettori lands a few more strikes from on top, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 4
As he has done for the previous rounds, Vettori charges ahead to start off the round. A huge body kick from Costa resounds around the arena, and Vettori is able to tank it and keep pressing forward. The Italian pushes Costa against the fence, where he unloads with a combination of punches. Vettori changes things up every so often with a sharp jab, and he sits down on one with a crisp left hand that makes Costa shake his head. Make no mistake, that punch hurt. Vettori jabs a few more times to keep Costa back, and because of this, he is able to dodge a high kick. Vettori rolls with a head kick, but it might have opened a cut on the side of his eye. Vettori advances and pours it on with a barrage of brutal blows, and Costa winds up with a hook to the body to prove he is very much still in the fight. Costa tags Vettori with a few punches, and Vettori is right there to throw back at him. Another big body kick from Costa connects cleanly on the midsection, and he lands one to the side of Vettori’s knee for good measure. A solid combination from Vettori gets Costa’s attention, one punctuated with a left hand that draws a huge smile out of Costa. Vettori tries to push on the accelerator, only to take a flush kick to the body. Vettori steps in with a knee, and Costa takes the knee to the cup and tells Herzog to back off so they can keep fighting. Costa has his hands down, and Vettori times a swift left hand that backs Costa up to the fence. Costa lets go with a combo of power punches when he is in this position, and Vettori takes a deep breath as he avoids most of them. Vettori blitzes forward, pursues a takedown, and is stuffed. Costa slams his shin into Vettori’s waist, and Vettori will be wearing it tomorrow but he does not flinch here. Instead, he introduces his own shin to Costa’s body, and Costa simply sticks his tongue out at him. The horn sounds, and the fight has reached the fifth frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 5
The first strike landed in the last round is a huge right hand from Costa, one that Vettori eats like an entire plate of pasta. He follows this with a booming head kick, and Vettori’s chin can never be questioned again after the punishment he has endured the last two fights. They stand right in front of one another and trade, not afraid of the other in any way. Costa smashes his leg into Vettori’s torso like he was hitting a side of beef, and Costa may have finally gotten through to Vettori. Seeing Vettori may be hurt, he peppers him with more punches and a few more kicks, until Vettori shoots in for a desperation takedown. The Brazilian is strong enough to endure and stop it, and he keeps himself upright after the subsequent try. When Vettori cannot get it, he backs off, and Costa follows him with punches. Costa tags his foe with a monstrous right hand, and Vettori wears it and takes a knee and a kick to the body right after. “Borrachinha” continues to batter the body with blistering blows, and Vettori has had enough of them, so he ducks down and telegraphs a double from halfway across the fence. Costa notices it, stops it, and lets Vettori take a step back so he can kick Vettori in the midsection again. Vettori aims a kick to the body to pay him back, but Costa’s are far more emphatic and still landing hard and loud this late into the fight. They start trading, and Costa gets a head kick over the top of the guard. Costa grabs hold of a clinch to try to set up a Thai Plum, but he releases it when Vettori pulls back. Back to his preferred range, Vettori jabs out a few times, but Costa pounds him in the chops with a right hand. Vettori is now the one shaking his head to signal that it does not hurt. The Italian ties him up and hunts for a takedown, and Costa stuffs it and shakes his head. He slaps Vettori in the side and backside as time expires, clearly not thrilled with his performance. The Brazilian might be disappointed, but most fans watching around the world clearly will not be after that wild, hard-fought battle. It is a relief to those same fans that the event ended with a bang and not a dud, like recent weeks, and there will be little time to take a breath as the next big show is right around the corner. UFC 267 will take place next Saturday early in the morning, and it will be a pay-per-view caliber card for free for those that have ESPN+. Although we might not have been here live today due to technical difficulties, we will be here for it next week with bells on. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (49-45 Vettori)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa (48-47 Vettori)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (49-45 Vettori)

The Official Result
Marvin Vettori def. Paulo Costa via Unanimous Decision (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo finds this a very tough pick. He initially had Costa but flipped to Vettori because Vettori has more ways to win (grappling, durability). He notes Vettori's takedown accuracy is under 50% and he struggles to keep people down, while Costa has 80% takedown defense. He's worried Vettori will get sucked into a striking match. He ultimately picks Vettori but is not confident. He loves a prop bet on Costa: 'wins inside the distance, decision no action' at -110, meaning if Costa wins by KO he gets paid, if he loses a decision he gets a refund.

loves Costa wins inside distance, decision no action at -110; likes more/more on monkey knife fight (over 117.5 combined strikes)
"i love the palo costa wins inside the distance decision no action bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Vettori to survive Costa's early storm and win late, citing Vettori's durability, five-round experience, and never-been-KO'd record. He notes Costa's takedown defense (80%) and strength make him hard to take down, but believes Vettori's wrestling and cardio will prevail in later rounds. He predicts a fifth-round TKO or submission.

fifth round TKO or submission
"i'm gonna say marvin vittori does win i'm gonna say like a fifth round either a tko or a sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Marvin Vettori, expecting to get a better live price after Vettori likely drops the first round. He highlights Vettori's durability, cardio, and experience in five-round fights, contrasting with Costa's questionable cardio and history of gassing. Cody notes Costa's impressive pressure against Yoel Romero but points out his poor performance against Adesanya and his tendency to fade after two rounds. He believes Vettori can take over in rounds 3-5 and recommends betting live after the first round.

Bet live after first round; expects better odds if Vettori drops round 1
"i feel like i want to go with marvin vittori but we're going to get a much better price on him live after he likely drops the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Lock picks Vettori based on durability and cardio advantage. He notes Costa's cardio drops after 8 minutes and Vettori's pace will take over late. He expects Vettori to survive early onslaught and finish in rounds 3-5. He also likes Vettori inside the distance and round props.

Vettori inside the distance +250, Vettori round 3 +1100, round 4 +1700, round 5 +2500, under 4.5 rounds -128
"i do like the vitoria line here i don't even mind him up to that minus 200 miles to 20 point because i think his durability will come through and then his cardio will be the beneficiary"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul initially leans towards Costa but is swayed by Cody's reasoning. He acknowledges Vettori's durability and chin, but also notes Costa's power and the possibility of a knockout. Paul suggests that if betting Costa, the knockout prop at +225 is the way to go. He ultimately agrees that waiting for live markets is the best approach, but does not commit to a clear pick.

Costa by KO +225
"i was thinking costa because i'm just not entirely sure that marvin can just out grapple him early on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori, citing Costa's questionable cardio and mindset after his first KO loss. He believes Vettori's durability, pressure, and activity will allow him to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a rear-naked choke finish in round 4, drawing parallels to Vettori's fight with Omari Akhmedov.

rear naked choke round 4
"i'm going with marvin vittori here as a slight favorite in the main events and i reckon he gets this one done over paulo costa as the rounds go on"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
TKO (punches) R2 3:59 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 55 of 84 65% 55 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Paulo Costa 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 22 of 37 59% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Israel Adesanya 1 33 of 47 70% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Paulo Costa 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 55 of 84 65% 24 of 51 5 of 6 26 of 27 45 of 71 2 of 3 8 of 10
Paulo Costa 12 of 26 46% 2 of 13 7 of 8 3 of 5 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 22 of 37 59% 4 of 17 3 of 4 15 of 16 22 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 7 of 11 63% 1 of 4 5 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 33 of 47 70% 20 of 34 2 of 2 11 of 11 23 of 34 2 of 3 8 of 10
Paulo Costa 5 of 15 33% 1 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 4 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Adesanya after initially leaning Costa. He cites Adesanya's eight-inch reach advantage, superior striking defense, and ability to stick and move in the bigger cage. He thinks Costa is hittable and may fade in later rounds, leading to a fourth-round knockout for Adesanya.

Adesanya by fourth-round knockout; line could be wider
"i'm going to go with israel otasanya to win i'm going to pick him to win by give me a fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to become the new champion, citing Costa's pressure, body work, and ability to close distance. He dismisses concerns about Costa's cardio and notes Costa dropped Yoel Romero with a left hook. He believes Izzy's jab will be answered by Costa's combinations, and that Costa can win by decision or knockout. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation at plus 160.

dog or pass situation; plus 160 on paulo costa
"i'm going to go with the paula bohacino and new champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Israel Adesanya, expecting him to use his movement and counter-striking to frustrate Paulo Costa. He believes Costa will swing at air and slow down after two rounds, allowing Adesanya to take over and finish in the fourth round. He notes that Costa's power is a threat early, but Adesanya's elusiveness and technical striking will prevail.

Adesanya wins in round 4 (+1050), Costa wins in round 1 (+600) (degenerate parlay)
"Final prediction israel artisan you know when this fight by fourth round tko."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa, emphasizing Costa's overlooked technical skill, power, and size. He thinks Costa will hurt Adesanya to the body first and then finish upstairs, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes Costa won the trash talk and remains calm, while Adesanya's tentativeness against Romero could be exploited.

Win by TKO in round 2
"i'll go with second round tko for paulo costa start of the second he'll make the reads in the third start wearing him down"
WIN vs Yoel Romero
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 1 125 of 284 44% 125 of 284 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:12
Yoel Romero 1 118 of 213 55% 118 of 213 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 1 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Yoel Romero 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Paulo Costa 0 40 of 91 43% 40 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:01
Yoel Romero 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Paulo Costa 0 53 of 124 42% 53 of 124 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Yoel Romero 0 44 of 73 60% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 125 of 284 44% 96 of 244 11 of 20 18 of 20 118 of 276 7 of 8 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 118 of 213 55% 67 of 148 46 of 58 5 of 7 110 of 202 5 of 5 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 32 of 69 46% 23 of 54 2 of 7 7 of 8 31 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 37 of 69 53% 19 of 46 16 of 20 2 of 3 32 of 61 2 of 2 3 of 6
2 Paulo Costa 40 of 91 43% 28 of 77 6 of 7 6 of 7 39 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 37 of 71 52% 24 of 53 12 of 17 1 of 1 36 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 53 of 124 42% 45 of 113 3 of 6 5 of 5 48 of 118 5 of 6 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 44 of 73 60% 24 of 49 18 of 21 2 of 3 42 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power, wrestling, and knockdowns in every UFC fight. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's recent good performance but is skeptical of Costa moving up in weight and his history of canceled fights. He expects Azamat to bring pressure and suggests a possible over 1.5 rounds bet.

over 1.5 rounds
"Azamat's going to be the pick. Maybe we get lucky enough for a one and a half round line because I do think this is going to go a little bit longer."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is impressed with Murzakanov's speed, power, takedown defense, and defensive striking. He notes that Murzakanov's cardio has improved and he carries power late. He doubts Paulo Costa's recent performances, citing losses to Vettori, Strickland, and Adesanya. He predicts Murzakanov wins by decision, possibly hurting Costa but not finishing him.

decision
"I like Merzikanov in this matchup... give me Azamat Merzikanov to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa as an underdog, believing he can weather Murzakanov's early storm and outwork him in later rounds. He notes Murzakanov's low volume and Costa's durability, expecting a decision win for Costa.

"I am actually going to take Paul Costa. Very small stakes, but I feel like he weathers the early storm and just outworks him down in rounds two and three."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Connor picks Murzakanov, citing Costa's inconsistency and lack of defensive awareness. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-shot knockout artist with excellent timing and defensive awareness, and that Costa's high-volume, low-defense style leaves him vulnerable. Connor also questions Costa's motivation and his move up to light heavyweight, suggesting that Murzakanov's calm, patient approach will allow him to land a clean shot. He compares Murzakanov to Fedor Emelianenko in terms of timing and cage craft.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I got to take, I got to take Merzicon off just wait, Costa..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Vreeland picks Azamat Murzakanov because he believes Murzakanov is criminally underrated and has been disrespected by oddsmakers. He notes that Murzakanov has heavy hands and good wrestling, and that Costa's cardio and discipline are questionable. He also points out that Costa's move up to light heavyweight may not help his psyche or performance.

"I got Murzakanov here, and I think he's being disrespected again, coach."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel believes Murzakanov is being disrespected and sees him as a heavy hitter with good takedown defense. He thinks Costa gets discouraged in fights and that Murzakanov will box him up.

"I feel like people are disrespecting Mzakanov and I'm going to come out here and pick him and I think that he boxes up Paulo Costa."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The host thinks the odds are too aggressive favoring Murzakanov (implied probability 67%) and would cap the fight closer to 50/50. He believes Costa has better cardio and is the more complete striker, while Murzakanov is a better boxer with more power but fades after the first round. He prefers the underdog value on Costa but is not confident in a win.

Likes Costa +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision.
"If I were capping this fight personally, I would probably have it closer to 50/50. I don't really know why Merab Dvalishvili is such a big favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

James picks Murzakanov, citing his power, speed, and accuracy advantage over Costa, who he believes is on a downtrend and not suited for light heavyweight. He expects Murzakanov to hurt Costa early and possibly finish him.

"I did end up picking Azimat Makanov as my official pick. And I do think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Costa's durability and volume should be too much for Murzakanov, who relies heavily on knockout power. Murzakanov has been close to losing in several fights and his power may not phase Costa. Costa's athleticism and counter-striking can neutralize Murzakanov's blitzes. Costa looked sharp against Kopylov and can outpoint or even knock out Murzakanov. This is a winnable fight for Costa at plus money.

Costa wins by knockout
"I'm gonna go Costa here to pull off the upset. I think he ends up landing a big shot on Mzakonov."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul favors Murzakanov due to Costa's questionable commitment and Murzakanov's knockout power. He thinks Costa may be one foot in, one foot out, while Murzakanov's sole purpose is knocking dudes out.

"Makana is a side for me. What about you? Yeah, I'm gonna go with Paulo Costa..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa over Azamat Murzakanov. He is very confident, calling it a 'masterclass'. He believes Costa's speed, body kicks, and technical striking will be too much for Murzakanov, who he thinks is overrated and whose best days are behind him. He predicts a TKO in round two via body kick or similar.

"You're about to witness a Paulo Costa masterclass."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov, emphasizing Costa's psychological fragility and tendency to fade when pressured. He notes that Murzakanov does a lot of maintenance work—cutting off the cage, feinting, and being defensively aware—which will set up his knockout power. Zane also points out that Costa's only recent good performance was against Roman Kopylov, and that moving up to light heavyweight again raises questions about his commitment. He believes Murzakanov's timing and power will be too much for Costa, who is prone to getting hit and may not want to engage.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I think this may be one of those fights where that genuinely is the deciding factor. Yeah, because Marzakonov landing a clean shot on Paula Costa may not be so different from Israel, out of Sonia landing a clean shot on him."