UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025 · Lightweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 10"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Esteban Ribovics
8.09 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
6.3 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.39 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Elves Brener
4.76 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
5.86 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.99 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Esteban Ribovics
Moneyline
BetRivers -250
KO/TKO
BetRivers +180
Submission
Unibet +2000
Decision
FanDuel +195
Elves Brener
Moneyline
Caesars +230
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1400
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
BetRivers +480
Esteban Ribovics - Fight History
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Submission R2 4:19 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 34 52% 38 of 56 4 of 6 66% 1 0 6:50
Esteban Ribovics 0 4 of 21 19% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 21 66% 24 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 13 30% 14 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 34 52% 15 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 14 of 16
Esteban Ribovics 4 of 21 19% 2 of 15 0 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 21 66% 11 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Esteban Ribovics 1 of 12 8% 0 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Esteban Ribovics 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
WIN vs Elves Brener
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 118 of 250 47% 123 of 256 0 of 9 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 122 of 281 43% 123 of 284 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 68 52% 37 of 69 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 39 of 95 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 48 of 88 54% 51 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 34 of 94 36% 35 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 49 of 102 48% 49 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 118 of 250 47% 88 of 211 15 of 23 15 of 16 118 of 248 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 122 of 281 43% 86 of 233 23 of 29 13 of 19 114 of 268 0 of 0 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 36 of 68 52% 21 of 51 6 of 8 9 of 9 36 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 39 of 95 41% 29 of 83 6 of 6 4 of 6 31 of 82 0 of 0 8 of 13
2 Esteban Ribovics 48 of 88 54% 39 of 76 5 of 8 4 of 4 48 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 34 of 84 40% 21 of 65 7 of 10 6 of 9 34 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 34 of 94 36% 28 of 84 4 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 49 of 102 48% 36 of 85 10 of 13 3 of 4 49 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.

"Ribovitch, I have a lot more faith that his durability, his game is built to take advantage of his durability in ways that are much more sustainable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.

Inside the distance; Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I think Rivix is going to win the fight... inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.

"I think that Rubavich is somebody who likes fighting every bit as much as Brenner. Oh, no denying. There's no doubt of that."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 135 of 273 49% 135 of 273 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 147 of 433 33% 149 of 436 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 107 33% 36 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 49 of 104 47% 49 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 62 of 183 33% 62 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 53 of 105 50% 53 of 105 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 49 of 143 34% 51 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 135 of 273 49% 103 of 233 26 of 34 6 of 6 134 of 272 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 147 of 433 33% 120 of 395 17 of 27 10 of 11 147 of 433 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 33 of 64 51% 21 of 50 11 of 13 1 of 1 33 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 36 of 107 33% 28 of 94 3 of 7 5 of 6 36 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 49 of 104 47% 39 of 91 8 of 11 2 of 2 49 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 62 of 183 33% 53 of 170 6 of 10 3 of 3 62 of 183 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 53 of 105 50% 43 of 92 7 of 10 3 of 3 52 of 104 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 49 of 143 34% 39 of 131 8 of 10 2 of 2 49 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics, highlighting his sneaky power, tight striking, and ability to mix in takedowns and BJJ. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast is not very dangerous and tends to win close decisions, but believes Ribovics can win more decisively. He also mentions that Vegas judges don't favor Nasrat, which could help Ribovics.

"I'm pretty high on re he's got dog in him we saw that in the L fight he has some wrestling he's got striking nazat is not very dangerous so I think reix can win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics, citing his volume, durability, and power. He notes Nasrat Haqparast is not a wrestler and will stand and trade, which favors Ribovics. He predicts Ribovics will break Haqparast and knock him out in the second round.

Ribovics by KO round 2
"I'm going to take Esteban Rivix to win this fight and I think he knocks out hack brast... give me rivix to win by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor picks Ribovics as a fun flyer, noting that Ribovics is a pocket combination puncher who will force exchanges and get hit but also land. He mentions that Haqparast has lost to similar pressure fighters like Dober and that Ribovics has the power to hurt him. Connor admits it's a competitive fight but goes with Ribovics for the upset.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'll just pick ribovich because uh, I would normally pick hock peros and I don't feel like it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The host acknowledges the public is high on Ribovics after his Fight of the Year candidate, but believes they are overlooking Haqparast's experience and strength of schedule. He expects Haqparast's combination striking to overcome the favorite and win a decision.

decision
"I believe the public is very high on reix after that fight of the year he had against Daniel zel Huber back in September but they are overlooking the experience and strength of schedule from hack prast and I believe …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. He views Haqparast as a simple straight-punch fighter without enough power, while Ribovics is more dynamic with better footwork, kicks, and versatility. He notes Ribovics' fight of the year contender and predicts a close 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going with es bam ribovich... he mixes it up way better he's the one Landing body kicks and a head kick here and there... I'm going to go vean decision 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Zane picks Haqparast, banking on his speed and experience in close fights. He notes that Haqparast rarely loses to opponents he is faster than, and Ribovics is hittable and will force exchanges. Zane acknowledges that Haqparast can be out-thought but believes his athleticism will carry him in a brawl.

Haqparast opened +197, now +248; Ribovics opened -264, now -284. Zane notes the odds are moving away from Haqparast.
"I'm banking on hock per husk just being faster honestly."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 1 121 of 308 39% 121 of 308 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 156 of 345 45% 156 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 51 of 116 43% 51 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 40 of 89 44% 40 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Esteban Ribovics 1 43 of 116 37% 43 of 116 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 92 of 191 48% 92 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 121 of 308 39% 83 of 255 33 of 48 5 of 5 117 of 304 4 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 156 of 345 45% 103 of 276 32 of 48 21 of 21 154 of 342 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 27 of 76 35% 13 of 59 11 of 14 3 of 3 26 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 24 of 65 36% 7 of 41 9 of 16 8 of 8 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Esteban Ribovics 51 of 116 43% 33 of 93 16 of 21 2 of 2 50 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 40 of 89 44% 23 of 68 9 of 13 8 of 8 40 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 43 of 116 37% 37 of 103 6 of 13 0 of 0 41 of 114 2 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 92 of 191 48% 73 of 167 14 of 19 5 of 5 90 of 188 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He notes Ribovics is well-rounded with sneaky power, tight strikes, good takedowns, and solid BJJ. He sees this as a close fight possibly going to split decision, so he placed a quarter unit on Ribovics moneyline at +180 and plans to put another quarter on the plus 3.5 spread to cover a close decision loss. He is confident in the dog pick.

Placed 0.25 units on moneyline at +180; plans to also bet plus 3.5 spread.
"I am picking him to win here he's the dog and I'm picking him to win here... I placed a bet on eston Rix at plus 180"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady likes Zellhuber due to an 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking technique. He notes Ribovics has no takedown defense, so Zellhuber can mix in takedowns if needed. He expects a competitive fight but Zellhuber to win a decision.

"I like zel Huber here... I think it's going to be a war I think it's going to be fun I think it goes to decision give me zel H to get the decision win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel leans with Daniel Zellhuber, praising his 8-inch reach advantage, kickboxing, and 94% takedown defense. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter but respects Ribovics' dangerous hands and get-up game. He is not fully convinced the line is right but goes with Zellhuber.

"I'm a lean with Danielle Z Huber I'm not convinced the line is right uh I'm not convinced but I don't say that uh with confidence"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Zellhuber because he likes his volume and ability to put pressure on opponents. He notes Zellhuber's only loss was to Trey Ogden, who grinded him out, but Ribovics is a power puncher who will let his hands fly, which plays into Zellhuber's strengths. He compares it to the Bahamondes vs Torres fight, favoring the taller, sharper striker.

Zellhuber by decision +135
"I don't really love the value on this one with zel Huber but I am gonna pick zel Huer mostly just because I like his volume and his ability to put it on somebody"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Jeff Fox picks Daniel Zellhuber as well, stating he is slightly better everywhere. He acknowledges the odds aren't favorable but notes he is ignoring size and youth this time, having turned over a new leaf.

"I'm taking zel Huber as well I just I think he's slightly better um everywhere but yeah the odds really aren't in our favor low for for that"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Ribovics packs power but Zellhuber is very calm, technical, and disciplined with his striking approach. Expects Zellhuber to utilize his footwork and touch up Ribovics from distance, winning on the scorecards.

"zel Huber is very calm Technical and disciplined with the Striking approach I expect him to utilize his footwork and touch up rabix from distance and win this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber. He highlights Zellhuber's 8-inch reach advantage and his ability to keep distance and pick shots. He notes Ribovics has a 69-inch reach which is flyweight-level, and at 5'10" that's a disadvantage. He trusts Zellhuber's game plan under coach Eric Nicksick and his recent back-to-back good performances.

"I'm going to go with Daniel el Huber and uh he's had two good performances back to back so I'm going to trust him to get this one done"
KO (head kick) R1 0:37 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.

"I got to go with the more durable guy here I have to go with the more dependable guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.

"I'm going to take riix to uh survive an early storm here get taken down get back up make McKenna work and I think he's going to push a pace here and finish M McKenna in the the late first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-220) parlayed with other unders; live betting Ribovics
"I think ribovich is a better live bet and I suppose yeah the the under one and a half is decent uh decent parlay fodder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.

late finish
"I think estaban takes over late and gets a late finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.

Under 1.5 rounds is a must play; McKinney round 1 prop
"give me uh mckenny round one but the under one and a half is a must play especially in Terence McKenna fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.

Under 1.5 rounds
"I expect ribovich eventually to Prevail and mckin to gas out and then probably get finished either late in the first round or early in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Terren mckin who is an underdog here... I think he has the advantage in the grappling over esam ribovich."
WIN vs Kamuela Kirk
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 56 of 107 52% 86 of 147 3 of 14 21% 1 0 6:20
Kamuela Kirk 0 115 of 202 56% 135 of 224 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 2 of 2 100% 29 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:37
Kamuela Kirk 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamuela Kirk 0 65 of 118 55% 71 of 126 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 19 of 38 50% 21 of 40 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:43
Kamuela Kirk 0 49 of 82 59% 61 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 56 of 107 52% 36 of 84 12 of 15 8 of 8 51 of 101 5 of 6 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 115 of 202 56% 94 of 177 17 of 20 4 of 5 92 of 172 10 of 13 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Esteban Ribovics 35 of 67 52% 20 of 50 9 of 11 6 of 6 31 of 62 4 of 5 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 65 of 118 55% 58 of 109 6 of 8 1 of 1 55 of 102 4 of 6 6 of 10
3 Esteban Ribovics 19 of 38 50% 14 of 32 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 49 of 82 59% 36 of 68 11 of 12 2 of 2 36 of 68 6 of 7 7 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo is confident in Ribovics, calling him the better striker with sneaky power and solid takedowns. He notes Kirk's tendency to fade, keep his hands low, and be hittable. He thinks Kirk's patience and year-long layoff will work against him. He placed a full unit bet at -200 and sees value even at that price.

Bet 1 unit at -200
"Reba fix is the pick and I threw a full unit on him at minus 200"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ribovics has heavy power and has knocked out opponents brutally, but his takedown defense is terrible. He believes Kirk is a good grappler who doesn't use his grappling enough, and if Kirk tries to strike, he will get knocked out. He expects Kirk to get tired if he wrestles, and Ribovics will take over and finish him in the second or third round.

third round knockout
"give me removics to win this fight I'll say ribofix wins this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting his power and improved wrestling. He thinks Kirk's wrestling is overrated and he has not improved. He mentions Ribovics showed good cardio and get-up ability against a strong wrestler. He grabbed Ribovics at -139.

Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I grabbed the minus 139 while you were talking"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor picks Ribovics because Kirk is a fighter who can be dominated in any area where his opponent is better. Ribovics is a better striker and more deliberate, and he showed credible resistance against pressure in his fight with Rongzhu. Kirk's flashy style doesn't hold up against solid fundamentals.

"Ribovich looks just overall more solid everywhere, basically."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Levi picks Ribovics, citing his dog mentality, knockout power, and ability to take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Kirk has cardio issues and has been broken in past fights, and that Ribovics showed resilience in his UFC debut by coming back after being rocked and taken down. Levi acknowledges that Kirk may have success early but believes Ribovics's volume and power will be decisive. He also mentions that Kirk moving up to lightweight may help his cardio, but still favors Ribovics.

"I'm still going Esteban man I think he's got more dog and he's got more power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Esteban Ribovics

James believes Ribovics is the better fighter overall, citing intangibles like cardio, durability, power, physicality, heart, and will. He thinks Kirk may have better technical MMA skills but lacks the intangibles and will look for a way out when the going gets tough. James would make Ribovics at least a -170 favorite, seeing value at the current -140 to -150 range.

"I think ribavix is the fighter and I don't think Kirk is I think when the going gets tough for Kirk he's going to look for a way out more than Esteban rivervix is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Ribovics has shown he can deal with grapple-heavy approaches and work back to his feet to land his striking. Kirk struggles with pressure, and Ribovics will overwhelm him with aggressive striking, eventually finding the chin and finishing with ground and pound. The under 2.5 rounds is also a viable play.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with rebovix here I think even the under two and a half is not a bad way of looking at this fight but I think that rebovix eventually finds that chin of Kirk overwhelms him with strikes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, citing his physicality and power. He thinks Kirk has stagnated and lost to better competition. He notes Ribovics' performance against a tough wrestler showed his potential. He expects Ribovics to win by KO or decision.

Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I got to go with Esteban to get the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics to win by KO in the first round. He describes Kirk as a worse version of Shane Burgos who overthrows his shots and leaves himself open to counters. He believes Ribovics' nasty counter hooks will catch Kirk coming in, leading to a finish.

wins by KO in the first round
"I think rybovich is going to catch him clean counter hook on the chin end of the first round put away cam Willa Kirk by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane picks Ribovics because Kirk is all flash and swagger with little substance, and he crumbles under pressure as seen against Damon Jackson. Ribovics is a more solid, deliberate striker who can pressure Kirk and dominate him in any area. Kirk has no answer for naked pressure, and Ribovics looks better everywhere.

"I just don't trust Kamuela Kirk."
LOSS vs Loik Radzhabov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loik Radzhabov 1 66 of 129 51% 98 of 162 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:31
Esteban Ribovics 0 40 of 85 47% 67 of 117 11 of 21 52% 0 0 7:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loik Radzhabov 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 8 of 23 34% 20 of 37 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:00
2 Loik Radzhabov 1 25 of 47 53% 38 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Esteban Ribovics 0 13 of 28 46% 18 of 33 4 of 9 44% 0 0 2:24
3 Loik Radzhabov 0 27 of 50 54% 41 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:27
Esteban Ribovics 0 19 of 34 55% 29 of 47 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loik Radzhabov 66 of 129 51% 52 of 114 11 of 12 3 of 3 61 of 124 1 of 1 4 of 4
Esteban Ribovics 40 of 85 47% 33 of 78 6 of 6 1 of 1 37 of 81 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loik Radzhabov 14 of 32 43% 10 of 28 3 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 8 of 23 34% 7 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Loik Radzhabov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 40 6 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 43 0 of 0 4 of 4
Esteban Ribovics 13 of 28 46% 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Loik Radzhabov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 46 2 of 3 1 of 1 26 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 19 of 34 55% 15 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 30 1 of 2 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.

fight does not go to distance (minus 160)
"I think Lloyd's pressure cardio and non-stop wrestling are gonna be the difference here but I wouldn't lay money on two UFC debuts like this that are just who the hell knows what's gonna happen here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.

second round knockout
"I think I'm gonna kick off the card with a dog... I'll take ribavix to win this fight though and I'm going to take him to win this fight I'm gonna say second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.

Under 2.5 rounds (-135) but hesitant due to short notice
"I'll pick loick because I'll pick them but yeah minus 275 kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.

"I'm just gonna look at the way he's putting his sleep and say it's true. This dude hits like a truck but yeah, you know just hitting hard alone. It's not enough to beat a good fighter who has options."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.

Esteban Ribovics second/third round finish
"I think Esteban can survive and if he does survive the first round I think that this fight is going to turn very very quickly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.

"I think eventually he'll be able to get a hold of him drag him to the ground and then from there I don't think that Kimura sweep path to his feet is going to work for rebovix at this level"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.

"I just don't see that happening he not known for his cardio him being on short notice isn't great"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.

"I'm still going to pick Raja buff to win... I think he will win this fight by decision plus."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.

"I'm going to just because he's never been knocked out before. That's probably enough for me to go."
Elves Brener - Fight History
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 118 of 250 47% 123 of 256 0 of 9 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 122 of 281 43% 123 of 284 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 68 52% 37 of 69 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 39 of 95 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 48 of 88 54% 51 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 34 of 94 36% 35 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 49 of 102 48% 49 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 118 of 250 47% 88 of 211 15 of 23 15 of 16 118 of 248 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 122 of 281 43% 86 of 233 23 of 29 13 of 19 114 of 268 0 of 0 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 36 of 68 52% 21 of 51 6 of 8 9 of 9 36 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 39 of 95 41% 29 of 83 6 of 6 4 of 6 31 of 82 0 of 0 8 of 13
2 Esteban Ribovics 48 of 88 54% 39 of 76 5 of 8 4 of 4 48 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 34 of 84 40% 21 of 65 7 of 10 6 of 9 34 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 34 of 94 36% 28 of 84 4 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 49 of 102 48% 36 of 85 10 of 13 3 of 4 49 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.

"Ribovitch, I have a lot more faith that his durability, his game is built to take advantage of his durability in ways that are much more sustainable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.

Inside the distance; Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I think Rivix is going to win the fight... inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.

"I think that Rubavich is somebody who likes fighting every bit as much as Brenner. Oh, no denying. There's no doubt of that."
LOSS vs Joel Alvarez
TKO (knees and punches) R3 3:36 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 1 95 of 141 67% 114 of 164 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:51
Elves Brener 0 45 of 97 46% 45 of 98 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 25 of 36 69% 39 of 52 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:48
Elves Brener 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Joel Alvarez 0 31 of 45 68% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Joel Alvarez 1 39 of 60 65% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Elves Brener 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 95 of 141 67% 67 of 111 24 of 26 4 of 4 71 of 112 24 of 29 0 of 0
Elves Brener 45 of 97 46% 17 of 58 7 of 16 21 of 23 45 of 96 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 25 of 36 69% 15 of 24 9 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elves Brener 15 of 27 55% 6 of 14 0 of 4 9 of 9 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joel Alvarez 31 of 45 68% 19 of 33 10 of 10 2 of 2 31 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 18 of 42 42% 6 of 24 5 of 10 7 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joel Alvarez 39 of 60 65% 33 of 54 5 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 35 20 of 25 0 of 0
Elves Brener 12 of 28 42% 5 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 6 12 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-185), Brener (+154)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with a potential banger at 155 pounds, between two athletes who combine for two decision wins across their 36 pro victories. Alvarez (20-3, 5-2 UFC) sports a marvelous 100% finish rate, while the two triumphs on the scorecards can be attributed to Brener (16-4, 3-1 UFC). In this Spain vs. Brazil battle, referee Lukasz Bosacki takes charge to make sure there are no ill international relations. There is a fist bump to get things started, and Brener engages with a pair of leg kicks. Brener jabs his way into range, and he kicks the lead leg and gets knocked back with a right hand. Alvarez loads up on a power right hand to get Brener’s attention, and he walks the Brazilian down while measuring him with a jab. Alvarez calmly cuts off the cage, and he pins a one-two on the chin. Brener ducks down, directly into a standing guillotine choke, and he furiously throws Alvarez off of him. Alvarez resets and jabs the body, and he hops away from a jumping low kick. Brener keeps working on the leg and tosses out a front kick to mix things up, strafing to the side when Alvarez advances. Alvarez boots his man in the head, rings his bell with two punches and rails him with a jump knee. Brener absorbs it all without flinching, and he ties Alvarez up and looks to throw him down. The gangly Alvarez does not go down, landing in a 50-50 position and getting back up. Alvarez targets the liver with a left and kicks his man as well. Blasting Brener in the body and then kneeing him on the chin, Alvarez lines up a few more knees until Brener shoots in on his hips. Alvarez welcomes this as he fastens a brabo choke, and Brener rolls to his side and back in hopes of defending the submission. Brener pulls on Alvarez’ shorts to defend it, and Alvarez puts as much pressure as he can muster on the choke. Brener miraculously survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
Alvarez is so ready to get back to it, he paces in his corner before they begin. When they do, gloves are briefly touched, and Alvarez moves right to the middle of the cage. Brener awkwardly moves back and forth, hands up and down, but Alvarez does not flinch even when absorbing a clean left hand on the jaw. Alvarez swings his way in, and Brener counters with a left and digs a body shot to open up a right hand over the top. Alvarez pushes with a front kick and irritates Brener’s nose with a long jab, and he aims a jab at the body while backing away from a front kick. Alvarez zips a left and a right to the midsection, and Brener charges, landing and getting caught with a right at the end. Brener kicks the body a few times, and Alvarez jabs him up. Brener works the body and shoots for a takedown, where he pushes Alvarez to the wall but cannot wrench him to the canvas. Alvarez splits off and jabs a front kick to the ribs, and Brener kicks him and rushes away. Brener swipes out with a left hook, and it is one-and-done. Alvarez continues to plod forward, sneaking a left around the guard and aiming a right hand to the sternum. Alvarez blocks a kick aimed at his noggin and keeps the pressure going, doubling up on a jab to make Brener scoot away. Alvarez follows him around, jabbing and following one with a low kick. Brener kicks him back in the same spot, and he darts in with a leaping left. Alvarez catches Brener coming in with a sniping left, and he just misses with a long right hand and a head kick. Brener keeps moving to not take anything flush, and he scoops a left hand under the guard. Alvarez paws out a few jabs to stay busy, and he backs off when Brener charges him. Brener walks through a jab to connect with a right hand, and Alvarez walks him down and boots him in the raised guard. Brener tries to jump knee him, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them energized, which works while they meet in the middle and clap their hands together. Brener scores a low kick and hurries away, and he is out of range from a front kick. They crash together with right hands, and Alvarez walks through a leg kick to track him down. Brener is on his bike, not planting his feet for long, but that does not stop Alvarez from popping him with a one-two. A rushed exchange from Brener results him in getting tagged more often and more effectively, so he breaks off and tries a spinning strike. Alvarez blocks it without issue, and he goes to the body with a left and kicks high twice. Brener guards against both and connects with a leg kick, and he sprints in with a left hand and backs off when Alvarez kicks him in the lead calf. Alvarez jabs and sets up a hook when Brener does the same, and Brener pours it on but that only results in him getting worked.
Alvarez rocks him with a left hand, drawing blood with a combination that follows around the left eye, and he chains a dozen or so knees to the head. Bosacki watches on closely as Alvarez clobbers him with furious knees, and Brener’s legs eventually give out beneath him. “El Fenomeno” only needs a pair of left hands to finish the job
, as Bosacki is on top of the action and rescues the Brazilian from further punishment. Alvarez retains his 100% finish rate with the stoppage late in the fight, while handing the durable Brener his first finish loss.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Elves Brener R3 3:36 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Angelo picks Brener but is hesitant because of the submission threat from Alvarez. He notes Alvarez has never taken anyone down but submits opponents who take him down, except Arman Tsarukyan. He thinks Brener is the more powerful striker and may keep it on the feet, but worries about Brener's submission defense if he wrestles.

"ell brener will be the pick here but I'll be biting my nails the entire time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Big Brady is leaning towards Brener despite Alvarez's dangerous finishing ability. He notes Alvarez has a 100% finish rate but questions his durability and ability to handle pressure, recalling Alvarez's loss to Arman Tsarukyan where he was beaten on the ground. He thinks Brener's pressure and pace could break Alvarez later in the fight, predicting a third-round TKO.

"I'm kind of leaning leaning brener here uh you know brener is a guy that is going to push through adversity whereas I'm not sure I could say the same thing about Alvarez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Cody picks Joel Alvarez, citing his massive size advantage and superior BJJ. He notes that Brener is undersized and has been hurt by smaller opponents. Cody thinks Alvarez can use his reach and knees to keep Brener at range, and if Brener shoots, Alvarez can submit him. He also mentions that Alvarez has good striking and has finished fights standing. Cody believes Brener's upset streak ends here.

"I think I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Alvarez is more dangerous with his size, length, and power. He can shell opponents up and pick them apart, and has more tools to sink in chokes and use elbows and knees. He should finish Brener within two rounds.

finishes within two rounds
"I think Alvarez has a little bit more Tools in terms of his ability to sink in chokes and really put the pressure on with his elbows and knees and I think that will eventually catch up to brener here …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Joel Alvarez, noting his size and submission skills. He thinks Alvarez can win inside the distance, possibly by submission. Paul acknowledges that Brener could take over if the fight goes deep, but he expects Alvarez to finish early. He also mentions that the fight ends inside the distance is a good prop.

fight ends inside the distance -200
"I will be looking to like you know fight ends inside the distance minus 200 I think that's my favorite way to attack that fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez over Elves Brener, noting that Brener always gets hurt in fights and Alvarez finishes when he hurts opponents. He highlights Alvarez's massive reach advantage and nasty calf kicks. He thinks Brener's only good win is against Kaynan Kruschewsky and that he was getting beaten by Guram Kutateladze before a comeback. He expects Alvarez to crack Brener and put him away.

"I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez I think he will crack elves Brena and if he does he'll put him away because Brena does get cracked"
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Myktybek Orolbai 0 48 of 91 52% 79 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 2 2:55
Elves Brener 1 65 of 119 54% 83 of 138 5 of 17 29% 0 0 7:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Myktybek Orolbai 0 10 of 19 52% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Elves Brener 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:06
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Elves Brener 0 28 of 49 57% 35 of 57 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:56
3 Myktybek Orolbai 0 17 of 38 44% 32 of 55 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:05
Elves Brener 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Myktybek Orolbai 48 of 91 52% 24 of 61 7 of 12 17 of 18 35 of 75 2 of 3 11 of 13
Elves Brener 65 of 119 54% 52 of 103 10 of 11 3 of 5 32 of 76 3 of 3 30 of 40
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Myktybek Orolbai 10 of 19 52% 6 of 15 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5
Elves Brener 20 of 35 57% 16 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Myktybek Orolbai 21 of 34 61% 10 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 28 2 of 2 4 of 4
Elves Brener 28 of 49 57% 21 of 41 7 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 25 0 of 0 15 of 24
3 Myktybek Orolbai 17 of 38 44% 8 of 25 2 of 6 7 of 7 14 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 4
Elves Brener 17 of 35 48% 15 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo is confident in Orolbai, disagreeing with the public narrative that Brener is a good underdog. He views Brener as a grappler despite his knockout wins, and believes Orolbai's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm him. He compares it to Orolbai's win over Uros Medic.

"the elves brener Underdog train officially stops in Brazil"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady is impressed with Orolbai's upside, calling him 'great everywhere' and noting his dominant debut. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and finishing ability but believes Orolbai has more ways to win. He predicts a decision due to both fighters' durability.

"I'm taking Orolbai to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Cody picks Brener as a dog, citing his takedown defense, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Orolbai is coming down from 170 and may have weight cut issues, and his wrestling-heavy style may not impress judges. Cody expects Brener to win a close decision or get a finish.

"I'm gonna go with Elvis Brener... brener is live for all those reasons and you add this plus money that looks juicy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, comparing his wrestling style to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He highlights Orolbai's pressure, takedown entries against the cage, and ability to stick to opponents. He believes Orolbai's suffocating style will be too much for Brener, who may struggle to create separation. He is willing to lay juice on Orolbai due to his dominant attributes.

"this guy oral by has the exact combination of attributes and fight style that I'm actually willing to lay juice on"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is very dangerous with his relentless grappling approach and better gas tank. He will put Brener through the ringer and finish him in the second or third round. The money line around -250 is acceptable.

money line around -250, finish in second or third round
"I'm going to go with him to win inside the Distance by breaking brener and getting that finish in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his physical strength and takedown ability. He notes Brener has been taken down before and Orolbai's power at lightweight will be a factor. Paul expects Orolbai to get takedowns and control the fight.

"I think he's rightful favorite at minus 250... I think he'll get the takedowns against Elvis whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, expecting him to use his size, strength, and wrestling to control Elves Brener. He notes Orolbai's takedown ability and ground-and-pound, and believes Brener's scrappy style will be neutralized as the fight goes on. He also mentions Orolbai's experience against good opponents and his physical advantages.

"I'm going to go with oral oral by elves Bren is good but I can just see him getting ragged old by this inbred hideous unevolved freak"
KO (punch) R1 4:01 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elves Brener 1 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elves Brener 1 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elves Brener 16 of 33 48% 6 of 20 2 of 3 8 of 10 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 8 of 31 25% 6 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elves Brener 16 of 33 48% 6 of 20 2 of 3 8 of 10 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 8 of 31 25% 6 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kaynan Kruschewsky

Angelo picks Kruschewsky (referred to as 'reix' or 'rabix') despite Brener's upset win over Guram. He thinks the striking gap is wide and Brener's knockout was a lucky punch in a fight he was losing. He notes Kruschewsky has sneaky power, solid BJJ, but takedown defense is a concern. He placed a half-unit bet on Kruschewsky at +113, now +130.

half unit bet at +113, now +130
"I threw a half a unit on him at plus 113 I love the underdog money he's plus 130 now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Daniel Levi picks Elves Brener, noting his well-rounded skills, toughness, and ability to overcome adversity. He acknowledges that Brener's kill-or-be-killed style leaves openings and he gets hurt in fights, but he has never been finished. Levi is wary of Kruschewsky's short-notice debut and his own impressive record, but believes Brener's preparation and hometown advantage give him the edge. He expects an exciting fight and picks Brener, but cautions that an upset wouldn't surprise him.

"I am going to go with Elves Brener here... definitely tune in for this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)

James passes on this fight because he hasn't taped Kruschewsky yet, as the fight was made only 24-48 hours ago. He mentions he had a bet on Rivaldo Vieira against Brener at +145, but that fight was called off. He does not provide a pick or analysis for this matchup.

"I'm going to pass this fight because I didn't um tap Kanan yet honestly guys I've been very busy this week."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Brener has a BJJ black belt but doesn't often grapple; however, his path to victory is through grappling. Kruschewsky has sketchy takedown defense and Brener can control him on the ground. Brener is competitive enough in striking and has durability. If he implements grappling, he could get a submission finish, but there's low confidence because he doesn't usually grapple.

Brener by submission
"Give me Brener and Brener by submission but not a whole lot of confidence concerning he's not known to go out there and grapple his opponents into the mat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Elves Brener

The MMA Guru picks Elves Brener over Kaynan Kruschewsky. He criticizes Kruschewsky's recent performances, calling them sloppy, and praises Brener's toughness and finishing ability. The Guru notes Brener's win over Guram Kutateladze and his competitive fight with L'udovit Klein. He predicts Brener will win by TKO in the later rounds.

"I'm GNA go with elves Brena after that performance against gam... I think he's going to win it by TKO in the later rounds"
TKO (punches) R3 3:17 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elves Brener 0 85 of 163 52% 99 of 177 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:23
Guram Kutateladze 1 65 of 132 49% 93 of 165 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elves Brener 0 30 of 48 62% 33 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Guram Kutateladze 0 9 of 22 40% 26 of 42 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:11
2 Elves Brener 0 33 of 73 45% 41 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:09
Guram Kutateladze 0 27 of 57 47% 36 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Elves Brener 0 22 of 42 52% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Guram Kutateladze 1 29 of 53 54% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elves Brener 85 of 163 52% 49 of 114 28 of 40 8 of 9 54 of 122 25 of 30 6 of 11
Guram Kutateladze 65 of 132 49% 42 of 101 15 of 18 8 of 13 53 of 112 6 of 8 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elves Brener 30 of 48 62% 17 of 30 10 of 15 3 of 3 18 of 30 12 of 16 0 of 2
Guram Kutateladze 9 of 22 40% 3 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Elves Brener 33 of 73 45% 21 of 54 7 of 13 5 of 6 23 of 60 4 of 4 6 of 9
Guram Kutateladze 27 of 57 47% 18 of 44 5 of 6 4 of 7 20 of 46 3 of 3 4 of 8
3 Elves Brener 22 of 42 52% 11 of 30 11 of 12 0 of 0 13 of 32 9 of 10 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 29 of 53 54% 21 of 42 6 of 8 2 of 3 25 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze confidently, stating his striking is light years ahead and his takedown defense is some of the best in the division. He believes Elves Brener has no path to victory, as Guram won't get taken down or submitted. He thinks the line should be much higher, like -1100.

"this is definitely a garam spot I gotta go gram all the way here his striking is going to be light years ahead his takedown defense is some of the best in the division"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Big Brady picks Guram Kutateladze to win by second-round knockout. He sees a massive skill discrepancy, noting Kutateladze went competitive with Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov, while Brener's best attribute is grappling, which won't work against Kutateladze's takedown defense. He believes Kutateladze will land repeatedly and eventually finish Brener.

second round knockout
"I'll say garam kudet wins this fight by knockout in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Cody thinks Kutateladze is a legitimate top-15 talent with strong wrestling and physicality. He notes Brenner's win over Zubaira Tukhugov was controversial (all media scored for Tukhugov) and that Tukhugov was an undersized featherweight. Cody expects Kutateladze to win by KO or decision, but acknowledges his injury history and short notice. He still picks Kutateladze.

"I gotta go with Cuda leads to just get him out of there probably with before the third round starts"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Daniel confidently picks Kutateladze, citing his superior striking and power. He notes Brener has never been finished but expects Kutateladze to dominate, possibly by knockout or decision. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and submission threat but believes Kutateladze is on a different level, as reflected in the -600 line. He expects a clear win, though he leans decision.

"he's minus 600 for a reason and he will be my pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Paul picks Kutateladze but notes the minus-700 price is hard to back. He mentions Kutateladze's layoff and injury issues, but believes his talent is far superior. Brenner's win over Tukhugov was controversial and Tukhugov was out of shape. Paul thinks Kutateladze should win, but it's risky at such short odds.

"kutata LEDs is the pick but at minus 700 I really don't think there's much there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

The Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, citing a massive stylistic mismatch for Elves Brener, who was preparing for Jordan Levitt's slow, non-athletic striking and wet blanket wrestling. He notes Kutateladze's speed and danger, and his impressive performance against Damir Ismagulov, which showed top-15 level. He predicts a TKO finish, as Kutateladze's striking will overwhelm Brener.

"I'm gonna be going with Graham katatzi and I just want to point out... this is a really unfair situation for elves Brenner"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elves Brener 0 70 of 169 41% 73 of 172 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:11
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 69 of 157 43% 82 of 170 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elves Brener 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Elves Brener 0 36 of 78 46% 36 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Elves Brener 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:11
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 22 of 38 57% 35 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elves Brener 70 of 169 41% 64 of 160 4 of 7 2 of 2 68 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 69 of 157 43% 30 of 101 23 of 35 16 of 21 66 of 153 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elves Brener 17 of 43 39% 14 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 24 of 67 35% 6 of 41 9 of 13 9 of 13 24 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Elves Brener 36 of 78 46% 34 of 74 1 of 3 1 of 1 36 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 23 of 52 44% 10 of 33 9 of 14 4 of 5 23 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Elves Brener 17 of 48 35% 16 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 16 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 22 of 38 57% 14 of 27 5 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Angelo picks Zubaira Tukhugov, citing his excellent wrestling and takedown ability, which should dominate Elves Brener, who is stepping up on short notice. He notes that both have mediocre striking, but Zubaira's wrestling is the difference-maker. He expects the fight to go to decision and advises against including Zubaira in parlays due to the risk.

Fight goes to decision
"zubair is definitely the pick both of these guys are tough this most likely goes to a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Big Brady is very confident in Tukhugov, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes that Tukhugov has fought much better competition and has 100% takedown defense, while Brener is a grappler with poor takedown defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Tukhugov has power and will go after Brener early.

first round knockout
"I like to hook up and knock this guy out and I like him to do it in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Cody picks Tukhugov but hates the -600 price. He notes Tukhugov is talented but often fights to the level of his competition and has many split decisions. He thinks Brener is a step up in competition and durable. He expects a close fight and would not bet Tukhugov at that price.

"the pick would be zubair to Hugo do I agree with the price tag no"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Connor picks Tukhugov, agreeing that Brener has zero structure and can be taken out of the fight in any position. He notes that Tukhugov is an insane athlete who has moved past his bad fight period and now looks structured. Connor thinks even a bad Tukhugov would likely win, and that Brener is a regional-level fighter.

"Yeah, Brenner is very much your fight for leap no over fight. And oh God, yeah, you would still might most likely dog walk Brenner."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Tukhugov's overhand right and clinch grappling will be too much for the short-notice debutant Brener. Brener has a tendency to end up on his back, where Tukhugov can control him. Tukhugov's striking is limited but effective at crashing the pocket. Brener may have success with kicks early, but Tukhugov's pressure and wrestling will take over. The fight likely goes to a decision with Tukhugov grinding out a win.

"I think that hard-known striking style of tahugov is going to be able to crash the Pocket land those big strikes on Brenner possibly finishing him in the early goings of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Paul picks Tukhugov but is not confident. He notes Tukhugov's wrestling and durability should be enough to control Brener, but the -600 line is unplayable. He sees Brener as durable and tough, but thinks Tukhugov wins by decision or late finish. He passes on betting.

"I think zooby should be able to take him down hold him down there... but yeah minus 600 what do you really do with the line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

The MMA Guru picks Zubaira Tukhugov over Elves Brener, noting that Brener is stepping in on short notice and lacks impressive competition. He believes Tukhugov will take it slow and steady, finishing Brener in the second or third round by TKO. He trusts Tukhugov's experience despite some past losses.

second round TKO
"I'm going with zubaira took a goth via second round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Zane picks Tukhugov confidently, stating that Brener is a bad fighter with no structure to his game, who can lose from any position. He notes that Tukhugov is a massive step up in competition and has shown improved boxing and structure. Zane believes Tukhugov will likely dog-walk Brener, landing a huge shot or takedown.

"Zubard Tukugov is a massive, massive step up in competition."
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.

"Ribovitch, I have a lot more faith that his durability, his game is built to take advantage of his durability in ways that are much more sustainable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.

Inside the distance; Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I think Rivix is going to win the fight... inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.

"I think that Rubavich is somebody who likes fighting every bit as much as Brenner. Oh, no denying. There's no doubt of that."