UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Neil Magny
3.4 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.17 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
4.16 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.56 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.79 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Neil Magny
Moneyline
BetWay +140
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1100
Submission
BetMGM +1200
Decision
BetMGM +250
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Moneyline
BetRivers -143
KO/TKO
BetRivers +370
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
BetRivers +235
Neil Magny - Fight History
LOSS vs Yaroslav Amosov
Submission R1 3:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yaroslav Amosov vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-400); Magny (+300)

Round 1
Your guess is as good as ours as to what the deal was today with this welterweight pairing. Once buried on the prelims, it now headlines them in open defiance of a rumor swirling that Magny was forced out of the fight. Still very much on the card, grizzled veteran and proud trap fight setter Magny (31-13, 23-12 UFC) may be the biggest underdog on the card despite being on his first win streak since 2022. The reason for the odds discrepancy is because he is facing once-beaten former Bellator king Amosov (28-1, 0-0 UFC), who had a de facto tune-up fight in March against Curtis Millender on the regionals before bouncing into the UFC. Grappling is likely about to be the name of the game for the next 15 minutes or fewer, and referee Herb Dean will oversee the proceedings. There is no sign of a glove touch between the two.
Magny leads the dance with a leg kick, and Amosov throws one back that is checked. Magny jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he dodges to avoid a looping counter. Magny sticks and moves, and he leans as a head kick grazes the side of his melon. Magny’s jab puts him too close to the wrestler, who grabs hold of him and tries to perform a double from behind. He chains it into a single, and Magny breaks out of it all and pops Amosov with a jab and a knee. They tie up, and Amosov looks for a short shot but takes a few more knees. The clinch leads to Amosov going for a single, and Magny falls to his back as Amosov establishes half guard. Amosov wraps his left arm around the head, possibly setting up an arm-triangle choke while simultaneously looking to pass guard with his legs. Magny controls his foe’s left arm to thwart a submission coming together, as well as a guard pass.
Amosov nails his foe with a short left, and he climbs up and over to grab hold of an anaconda choke while skipping straight past mount. The Ukrainian rolls through it to hold on in a nearly north-south posture, and the submission is now ironclad. Magny pushes off on his adversary’s ankle, arm and anything else he can grab hold of, hoping to get some space and save himself, to no avail.
Before he goes out on his shield, Magny taps out on Amosov’s posterior. Just like that, “Dynamo” has passed his first UFC test with flying colors, putting away a longtime veteran in just a couple minutes. On the microphone, Amosov introduces himself to his new company, saying “hi” to the other men at 170 pounds that he can dance with soon.

The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil Magny R1 3:14 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.

"Give me Amosov here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.

"I think this will be a good fight for him. I foresee him having a dreadful fight with ian gary... but I'm glad he's here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.

"I'm actually going to go out there and pick Yarislav Amos to submit him, you know, to finish what Jake Matthews started."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.

"Dog or pass. Neil Magny at plus 300 is never... Live bet him after the first round and you get a better price."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.

Odds: Amosov opened -500, now -400; Magny opened +375, now +300. Zane is okay with the odds.
"I do think he's gonna run shop on the Omegne. I think this is actually the kind of fight where this is gonna look a lot more like Neil Magni versus Gilbert Burns."
WIN vs Jake Matthews
Submission R3 3:08 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 18 of 44 40% 28 of 54 0 of 1 0% 3 1 4:43
Neil Magny 0 31 of 57 54% 73 of 103 3 of 5 60% 1 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:22
Neil Magny 0 18 of 32 56% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
2 Jake Matthews 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:53
Neil Magny 0 7 of 14 50% 22 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jake Matthews 0 2 of 8 25% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:28
Neil Magny 0 6 of 11 54% 27 of 36 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 18 of 44 40% 11 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 4 15 of 37 2 of 4 1 of 3
Neil Magny 31 of 57 54% 28 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 3 29 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 18 of 32 56% 16 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 18 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jake Matthews 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 3
Neil Magny 7 of 14 50% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)

Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.

"Jake Matthews is the pick. That's why he's a five to one favorite here. He was a six to1 favorite, so it did tighten a little bit, but I don't think that's a reflection of people losing confidence as much …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.

second round submission
"Give me Jake Matthews. Give me Jake Matthews by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.

"I got Jake Matthews at this line. He's the biggest favorite on the card, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.

"Jake Matthews is pretty confident pick here for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.

by submission (arm triangle) or inside the distance
"I'm actually going to predict the finish here now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Matthews to take another grapple heavy approach just like he did last time around against Chitty and Jakuani. I think he might meet some resistance here and should this fight go into deeper water, it could start to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.

TKO via low kicks
"I'm going to go with Jake Matthews getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
KO/TKO R2 4:39 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 42 of 67 62% 80 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 20 of 42 47% 42 of 69 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 17 of 36 47% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 36 50% 24 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Neil Magny 0 25 of 31 80% 51 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:03
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 42 of 67 62% 38 of 61 4 of 4 0 of 2 19 of 43 3 of 3 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 20 of 42 47% 5 of 24 4 of 5 11 of 13 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 2 16 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 36 50% 5 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 11 15 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."
CANCEL vs Gunnar Nelson
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punch) R1 4:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)

Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.

"Carlos prattes is the pick the odds do seem to be long gone though maybe they'll start to correct themselves"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.

Prates by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'll say second round for Carlos press there by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds, live bet on Magny if fight goes past two rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout the under two and a half and yet the guy's been smoking darts and breaking hearts."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.

"I think I will actually be surprised here if Neil Magny does not get knocked out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.

Prates by KO (-300), Prates round 1 (+200), round 2 (+350), round 3 (+450), round 4 (+900), under 2.5 rounds (-215)
"I am gonna pick Carlos Prates to come out here and put Neil Magny as another member of his highlight reel, it's going to be a 16th knockout in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.

by KO
"Carlos pratez via KO is the final prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.

wins inside distance, round 2-3, odds -750
"prates finding himself as a minus 750 favor going into this matchup and it completely makes sense as he is the perfect architect of fighter that causes Neil Magny issues look for a lot of light kicks from proess to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout seems like it's almost inevitable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.

TKO win, low kicks, body shots finish, round 2 or late round 1
"I'm going to go with Carlos prattes getting this one done with prattes people are say are you Gary couldn't finish nil magnet dude mag Gary doesn't have power like that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.

"I'm picking Pratas very confidently here."
LOSS vs Michael Morales
TKO (punches) R1 4:39 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
WIN vs Mike Malott
TKO (punches) R3 4:45 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 57 of 102 55% 110 of 159 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Mike Malott 0 45 of 67 67% 100 of 128 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 25 20% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mike Malott 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Neil Magny 0 6 of 15 40% 18 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 21 of 30 70% 67 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:08
3 Neil Magny 0 46 of 62 74% 80 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Mike Malott 0 4 of 6 66% 13 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 57 of 102 55% 52 of 95 3 of 3 2 of 4 13 of 44 0 of 2 44 of 56
Mike Malott 45 of 67 67% 19 of 40 4 of 4 22 of 23 30 of 49 0 of 0 15 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 25 20% 4 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 3 5 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 20 of 31 64% 2 of 13 1 of 1 17 of 17 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 30 70% 14 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 13
3 Neil Magny 46 of 62 74% 44 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 44 of 56
Mike Malott 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-340), Magny (+270)

Round 1
With Malott looking to show he is a Top 15 fighter, and Magny aiming to prove that he can do more than man the velvet rope for that category even at age 36, only one is likely to get his wish. Kevin Macdonald is the referee. Both fighters are in orthodox stance, and Malott lands a front kick to Magny’s lead leg immediately. Magny comes forward behind a high guard and Malott goes back to the lead leg with another push kick. Moments later, he hits Magny with a calf kick to that leg, then another. A strategy appears to be emerging. Malott steps in behind an overhand right, and Magny meets him, grabbing a clinch. Malott immediately shoves him off. Malott surges forward with a pair of big looping hooks. They fall short but succeed in backing Magny straight to the fence. Malott throws a lightning-fast head kick, but Magny just as quickly steps inside and takes the clinch again. Malott drives Magny to the fence and pummels his way out of the position, moving away from the cage and forcing Magny to follow. Malott goes back to the leg kicks, all aimed at the lead left leg of Magny. Malott is now getting Magny to bite on hip feints, indicating the effect the kicks have had so far. Malott lands a glancing low kick at the 10-second clapper, the last offense of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Magny throws a low kick to open the round, which Malott checks. Magny stalks forward and Malott gives ground, then plants and catches Magny with a clean two-punch combination that stings. Malott lands an inside kick to the lead leg, followed by a body kick on the other side. Magny comes crashing forward, but Malott uses a body lock to take him down, landing in full guard. Magny works to create some space to escape, but Malott more or less lets him up. Malott closes the distance again and uses a body lock and trip to dump the taller man to the floor at the base of the fence. Malott is in a sort of loose half guard, hovering over Magny, and when he dives in with an elbow strike, Magny locks down his right leg. Malott gets a few shots in from half guard, then stands over Magny. Magny throws a upkick and Malott jumps right back onto him, moving to mount. Magny spins to put his feet against the fence, looking to use the cage to bridge and escape, but Malott scoots him away from the cage and stays in mount, throwing methodical, heavy elbows and forearms. Malott isolates Magny’s left arm, perhaps considering a submission, but at the 10-second clapper gives up on it and throws strikes until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Malott throws a leg kick and backs Magny up with punches, then changes levels and more or less bowls him over for a fast takedown, landing in mount. Magny wraps his arms around Malott, keeping him from posturing up and doing major damage, then bucks and returns to his feet. Malott follows him across the cage and launches himself at his hips, scoring another easy takedown. Magny gets to full guard, then grapevines the legs, trying to keep Malott from going anywhere. Malott throws some short strikes before standing up out of guard and dives back in, but ends up in full guard again. Magny stands and Malott grabs a guillotine, pulling guard as he does, but Magny pops his head out and ends up on top, where he starts throwing punches with some urgency. Malott is suddenly looking exhausted and Magny is all over him. Malott turns to his side, but otherwise offers no real defense as Magny continues throwing a stream of unblocked punches with both hands. There’s less than 30 seconds left. Referee Macdonald is looking on closely, and as motivated as he might be to avoid any possibility of a quick stoppage, after at least two dozen unanswered blows, he interposes himself for the TKO with just 15 seconds left on the clock. What a comeback by the ageless, indefatigable Neil Magny.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Mike Malott R3 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.

Will have some action on Malott; avoid overexposure
"this has to be a Mike mot pick this is the matchup in Canada for a reason"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.

first round submission
"give be Mike mot to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.

Malott by decision at +400 to +450
"Mot definitely the pick... the prop is a little tricky... maybe mot by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.

"I'm going to pick Mike mot to continuous streak and show out"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.

plus 310 dog money
"I am going dog that's going to surprise you probably right Neil Magny I had a feeling you Neil Magny big step up like this is this is a real big step up from lot unless Magny is totally from …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.

plus 310 dog money
"I don't really like the pass to Victory here from a lot do you think he's like gonna out wrestle Neil Magny like mag's got pretty good wrestling right like he he's at least defensively seems like he's got good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.

submission victory, first round finish
"I fully expect Mike mot to play with Magny on the feet a little bit eventually drag this fight to the ground and strangle Neo Magny on route to a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.

Malott by decision (mentioned as a possibility)
"I think mot wins... there's no way I touch the minus 400."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Mike Mallet I was going I was honestly hedging the idea of picking Neil Magny here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 27 of 66 40% 51 of 93 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:10
Neil Magny 0 91 of 150 60% 111 of 171 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 24 33% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Neil Magny 0 20 of 32 62% 33 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 27 40% 15 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:05
Neil Magny 0 31 of 53 58% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 15 53% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 40 of 65 61% 43 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 27 of 66 40% 10 of 41 7 of 11 10 of 14 25 of 61 2 of 5 0 of 0
Neil Magny 91 of 150 60% 32 of 90 16 of 17 43 of 43 84 of 140 4 of 5 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 24 33% 3 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0
Neil Magny 20 of 32 62% 5 of 17 4 of 4 11 of 11 19 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 27 40% 5 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 31 of 53 58% 9 of 30 6 of 7 16 of 16 28 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 15 53% 2 of 6 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Neil Magny 40 of 65 61% 18 of 43 6 of 6 16 of 16 37 of 61 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo is confident in Ian Garry, believing his striking speed and timing will keep Neil Magny at range and prevent him from using his grappling. He notes that Magny is stepping up on short notice and that Garry has shown he can overcome adversity, as in the Song Kenan fight. He expects a clear decision win similar to Garry's win over Darian Weeks.

"Ian Gary is going to be the pick and I think this is going to look like when Ian beat Darian weeks... very confident in Ian especially with Neil magni stepping up on short notice."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Big Brady picks Ian Garry to win by third-round knockout, citing Garry's size, cardio, and power advantage. He notes Magny has been finished in 8 of 10 losses and struggled against Phil Rowe. Brady worries about Garry's striking defense but believes Magny lacks the power to exploit it.

win by KO, round 3
"give me Ian Gary to win this fight I'll take Ian Gary to win by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody acknowledges Garry's talent but notes his past struggles and poor takedown defense. He thinks Magny could pose problems with wrestling, but Magny looked washed in his last fight. He expects Garry to win, likely by decision, but doesn't love the -400 line. He suggests Garry may not add much value to parlays.

under 57.5 significant strikes for Garry; inside the distance possible but not confident
"I would take Gary now minus 400 again it's just not a money line that I love inside the distance if magnes completely washed sure inside the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Levi is sold on Ian Machado Garry, calling him one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. He notes that Garry has good takedown defense, a solid get-up game, and has gone five rounds. Levi believes Garry will not fall into the trap of clinching with Magny, as other prospects have, because of his range management and footwork. He acknowledges the price is trash at -500 but still likes Garry to win.

Price is trash but Garry wins; minus 500 is too high but still a pick
"I've been sold since day one... the price is trash but I like Ian Gary in the spot"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry to dominate, citing the 11-year age difference, Magny's short notice, and Magny's tendency to get finished when he loses. He believes Garry has a good chance of finishing Magny, though he notes Garry is more of a point striker. He prefers the finish prop over decision.

Ian Garry inside distance (plus 600)
"I honestly think Gary's gonna dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Garry is the sharper striker and should land clean shots down the pipe. Magny struggles against technical strikers and has been finished before. Garry's ability to avoid the cage and pivot off will prevent Magny from grinding him. Expect a knockout finish, making the KO prop at even money a strong play.

Garry by KO
"I'd rather take a shot on that because if he's going to look that minus 400 in my opinion it's going to be with him getting his hand raised by finish in the spot I don't think it comes by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Neil Magny. He notes Garry's rapid improvement, judo background, and takedown defense. He thinks Garry will pick at range, chop at the legs, and possibly finish early. He also mentions Magny taking the fight on short notice and at 170 lbs, which favors Garry. He predicts a first-round KO after leg kicks.

round one KO after leg kicks
"I think he smokes Neil Magnum round one after chewing up his leg for about three minutes"
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos - Fight History
LOSS vs Neil Magny
KO/TKO R2 4:39 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 42 of 67 62% 80 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 20 of 42 47% 42 of 69 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 17 of 36 47% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 36 50% 24 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Neil Magny 0 25 of 31 80% 51 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:03
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 42 of 67 62% 38 of 61 4 of 4 0 of 2 19 of 43 3 of 3 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 20 of 42 47% 5 of 24 4 of 5 11 of 13 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 2 16 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 36 50% 5 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 11 15 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."
LOSS vs Chidi Njokuani
KO R2 2:19 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chidi Njokuani 1 46 of 87 52% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 17 of 49 34% 19 of 54 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chidi Njokuani 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:14
2 Chidi Njokuani 1 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chidi Njokuani 46 of 87 52% 17 of 38 16 of 32 13 of 17 36 of 71 2 of 3 8 of 13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 17 of 49 34% 5 of 28 2 of 5 10 of 16 13 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chidi Njokuani 23 of 45 51% 3 of 12 13 of 23 7 of 10 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 9 of 25 36% 3 of 13 0 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Chidi Njokuani 23 of 42 54% 14 of 26 3 of 9 6 of 7 14 of 27 1 of 2 8 of 13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 8 of 24 33% 2 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 6 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Angelo picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Chidi Njokuani. He acknowledges Njokuani is a better striker and younger, but he's concerned about Njokuani's volume being a one-off. Angelo trusts Zaleski's durability and wrestling, noting he almost finished Rakhmonov late. He suggests a prop bet on Njokuani winning inside distance with decision no action as a possible alternative.

Chidi Njokuani win inside distance, decision no action
"I'm still going to stay on the zeleski side but only because he's so damn durable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, noting that despite being 38, he still has good performances left. He highlights Zaleski's durability, cardio, and grappling advantage, and points out that Chidi Njokuani has a history of quitting when faced with adversity, especially when taken down. Brady believes if Zaleski gets on top or hurts Njokuani, the fight will end quickly. He predicts a second-round finish, either by KO or submission.

Zaleski dos Santos second round KO
"I like zeleski here and I think he finishes cheaty... second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Erceg despite the high price, citing his level of competition and size advantage. He acknowledges Ode Osborne's reach and speed could cause early problems, but expects Erceg to take over as Osborne fades due to short notice. He is wary of the minus 600 line but still sees Erceg winning.

"Ersig's going to be the pick, but minus 600 is a walk in the park. And I I think that Joseé Osborne is a different tricky type of style fighter that Ursk hasn't really necessarily have to deal with lately."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Njokuani's desire to brawl in the pocket is exactly what Zaleski wants. He notes that Zaleski has a good chin and can outlast brawlers, and that Njokuani's range fighting is not his natural game. He also mentions that Zaleski can take the fight to the ground if needed.

Odds: Zaleski opened -188, now -193; Njokuani opened +155, now +167.
"I have to pick Zaleski here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The host believes Njokuani can replicate what Randy Brown did against Zaleski, using a distance striking approach and mixing in clinch Muay Thai. He expects Njokuani to land more damage and win at least two of three rounds on the scorecards.

"I believe en kuani should be able to replicate what Randy Brown was able to do against aleski utilizing a distance striking approach maybe even mixing it up in the clinch a little bit with his Muay Thai but I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Erceg, noting his superior technique and experience against top competition. He mentions Ode Osborne's power and submission threat but believes Erceg will outclass him. He considers an Ode Osborne KO prop but prefers Erceg on the moneyline.

"The cleaner, better, more technical fighter is is Ersz. I expect to win. Um, I expect him to outclass OD, who I mean, outside of small moments tends to, you know, wilt fall apart a little bit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, citing his physical presence, 7-inch reach advantage, and nasty clinch effectiveness. He thinks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, a rangy kicker, will struggle with Njokuani's size and pressure. He notes Zaleski dos Santos often wins close decisions and is 38, while Njokuani is a slight underdog with good value. He predicts a 2-1 decision or a Njokuani finish.

Njokuani is a slight underdog; good value.
"I'm going to go chiding at Jani here I think he's a slight Underdog and I think there's good value on that so uh check it out"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane picks Zaleski because Njokuani is a phone booth fighter who wants to brawl in the clinch, which plays into Zaleski's strengths. He notes that Zaleski is durable, can out-grapple Njokuani, and has a path to victory if he mixes in takedowns. He also points out that Njokuani has poor takedown defense and is too content to play guard.

Odds: Zaleski opened -188, now -193; Njokuani opened +155, now +167. Zane says Zaleski could be a bigger favorite but understands age concerns.
"I have to pick Zaleski here."
TKO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Zachary Scroggin 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Zachary Scroggin 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 11 of 35 31% 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 29
Zachary Scroggin 3 of 8 37% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 11 of 35 31% 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 29
Zachary Scroggin 3 of 8 37% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Angelo picks Zaleski but with low confidence. He thinks Zaleski has heavier hands and can get takedowns, but worries about his cardio. He expects Zaleski needs to win the first two rounds because he will likely lose the third. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Scroggin if the odds are favorable. He understands people picking Scroggin due to his cardio and durability.

considering plus 3.5 round bet on Zach Scroggin
"I just think zeleski can make something happen he's got the heavier hands I think he can get a takedown or two my only concern is the freaking cardio so we're going to need zeleski to win the first two …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady sees this as a mismatch, with Zaleski being far more experienced and skilled. He notes Scroggin's low level of competition, poor takedown defense, and hittability. He believes Zaleski will win easily, likely by first-round knockout.

Zaleski by KO/TKO, round 1
"I'll take Eliza zesi by by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Cody is very confident in Zaleski, calling Scroggin a 'dead man walking.' He points out Scroggin's lack of power, poor wrestling, and weak competition. Cody notes Zaleski's experience, power, and ability to take down Randy Brown, and expects a dominant finish or clear decision.

"I think zeleski do Santos kills this man absolutely kills this man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lock picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski as a lock, calling it a 'pick him fight'. He notes Zaleski's ability to outbrawl opponents and that Scroggin is a severely undercooked submission grappler with dreadful striking. Connor mentions Zaleski hasn't knocked anyone out in six years but wouldn't be surprised if he does here. He also comments on the odds being wide.

Odds: Zaleski -525 to -669, Scroggin +356 to +400. Connor says 'I would not expect them to get a lot closer though.'
"It's a pick him fight. It's a pick him fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, believing his experience and level of competition will be too much for UFC newcomer Zach Scroggin. He notes Scroggin's padded record and lack of tested skills, while Zaleski has fought top competition and has knockout power. Vreeland expects a rude welcome for Scroggin.

"I'm going Elizio Zeleski to welcome this guy to the UFC in a very rude fashion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Scroggin is taking a huge step up in competition and despite his grappling, Zaleski should shut that down and use his striking advantage to find a finish in round two.

wins inside distance, round 2
"I think ultimately zeleski will be able to shut that down get to his striking advantage and eventually find the finish in round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul agrees, noting Scroggin's short-notice debut and unimpressive regional competition. He highlights Zaleski's power and veteran savvy, and expects him to overwhelm Scroggin on the feet. Paul thinks the -500 line is fair but warns of banana peel pricing.

"Zeleski should absolutely kill him unless the groggin guy has like great durability it should be oneway traffic."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The Guru picks Nicholas Dalby, citing his high output and cardio. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos is 37 and hasn't had a KO since 2018. He expects Dalby to push a pace and break Zaleski over the fight, though he acknowledges Zaleski could win by TKO.

"I'm actually going to go with Nicholas dby I think the high output will be the thing here pushing him up against the cage kneeing the thighs shooting in takedowns"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lock picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane picks Zaleski as a lock, describing Scroggin as a regional-level fighter with a submission grappling style and empty striking. He notes Zaleski is a really good opponent and that Scroggin has never faced a good opponent. Zane says Zaleski can go to war with anyone and it's up to him how he wins.

Odds: Zaleski -525 to -669, Scroggin +356 to +400. Zane says 'I would not expect them to get a lot closer though.'
"It's a pick him fight. It's a pick him fight."
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 67 of 141 47% 89 of 166 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:42
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 26 of 76 34% 42 of 94 4 of 7 57% 1 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 34 of 71 47% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Randy Brown 0 8 of 18 44% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:32
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 3 of 7 42% 19 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:52
3 Randy Brown 0 25 of 52 48% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 67 of 141 47% 50 of 120 5 of 8 12 of 13 61 of 133 2 of 2 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 26 of 76 34% 8 of 50 3 of 9 15 of 17 24 of 73 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 34 of 71 47% 24 of 60 2 of 3 8 of 8 33 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 9 of 34 26% 2 of 22 3 of 6 4 of 6 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 8 of 18 44% 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Randy Brown 25 of 52 48% 19 of 44 2 of 3 4 of 5 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 14 of 35 40% 4 of 22 0 of 3 10 of 10 13 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown but with reduced confidence after studying Elizeu Zaleski. He believes Brown's length and range striking will keep him safe, and that Zaleski is chinny and can be dropped. However, he acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and ability to rally, so he leaves Brown out of the safety parlay.

"Randy Brown Remains the pick but I'm telling you my gut reaction was all right safety parlay Randy Brown and then I was like I'll leave him out of the safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady is fading Randy Brown, expecting the fight to go to decision. He thinks Brown won't shoot takedowns or get an early finish, and doesn't expect crazy volume. He notes if there is a finish, it likely comes from Zaleski dos Santos. He is comfortable staying away from Brown.

Fight goes to decision, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by decision or late finish
"fade is gonna be Randy Brown 8,500 I don't think he's finishing uh dos santoso Santos early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown but is hesitant, acknowledging Zaleski's danger. He likes Brown's length, jab, and game plan but notes Brown has slowed down and his defensive grappling is suspect. Cody worries that Zaleski's power and forward pressure could sway judges. He plans to keep Brown low on parlays and might switch to Zaleski after weigh-ins.

"I think I'm going to go with Brown... but I fully recognize that Zaleski is going to be dangerous... it's going to be close and contentious."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff, emphasizing that Zaleski dos Santos relies on distance striking and leg kicks, but Brown's reach and takedown ability neutralize that. He sees Brown piecing him up from distance and potentially taking him down. Vreeland notes Brown is crafty everywhere and can adapt to any scenario.

"I think Brown's gonna piece him up from distance he's probably gonna put the pressure on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel likes Brown's recent confidence and footwork, and thinks Zaleski's chin is declining. He expects Brown to find openings with his jab and straight right, possibly getting a first-round KO. He laid -160 for two units.

"I actually took Randy Brown here minus 160"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Jeff Fox picks Randy Brown, citing his size advantage (4 inches height, 5 inches reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Brown is sneaky good, has no real weaknesses, and can win on the feet or with takedowns. Fox believes Zaleski dos Santos will struggle to deal with Brown's reach and pressure, and that Brown can mix in wrestling to keep things interesting.

"give me the rude boy sneaky good fighter... I think the size is going to be a big issue here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host expects Brown to use his size, reach, and footwork to keep Zaleski at range and win a decision. Zaleski's inactivity and age are concerns, and his unorthodox style may not overcome Brown's disciplined jab and movement. Brown's recent improvements in range management should allow him to cruise to a decision victory.

"Give me Brown and Brown by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul leans toward Zaleski as a dog, citing his forward pressure, damaging blows, and ability to land bigger shots. He notes Brown's style is conservative and may not impress judges, while Zaleski's aggression and power could sway them. Paul mentions Zaleski's age (37) but says he still throws heat and has good cardio. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and likes the plus money.

"I feel like the bigger shots, the forward pressure, the live crowd... Zaleski is a dog with a shot here at plus 150 in a fight that I could see being pretty 50/50."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, believing his height and reach will trouble Zaleski dos Santos. He notes that Zaleski struggles against taller opponents and is older (37) with potential decline. Brown has good boxing at range and recent TKO wins. He predicts Brown by TKO.

Brown by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown I really like this matchup for him"
Draw (majority) (29–28, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinat Fakhretdinov 1 87 of 186 46% 109 of 216 1 of 9 11% 0 1 4:25
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 75 of 152 49% 115 of 211 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 1 37 of 61 60% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 10 of 34 29% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 27 of 73 36% 32 of 78 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 22 of 50 44% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 23 of 52 44% 30 of 63 0 of 5 0% 0 1 0:29
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 43 of 68 63% 76 of 119 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinat Fakhretdinov 87 of 186 46% 50 of 144 11 of 16 26 of 26 65 of 156 7 of 8 15 of 22
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 75 of 152 49% 47 of 113 17 of 26 11 of 13 57 of 129 2 of 3 16 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 37 of 61 60% 17 of 40 5 of 6 15 of 15 21 of 39 1 of 1 15 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 10 of 34 29% 5 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 10 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 27 of 73 36% 15 of 57 3 of 7 9 of 9 24 of 70 3 of 3 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 22 of 50 44% 12 of 38 6 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 46 0 of 1 3 of 3
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 23 of 52 44% 18 of 47 3 of 3 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 1
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 43 of 68 63% 30 of 50 9 of 13 4 of 5 28 of 49 2 of 2 13 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Angelo is very high on Fakhretdinov, calling him the pick done right. He highlights Fakhretdinov's non-stop wrestling, power, and pressure. He thinks the 36-year-old Zaleski won't have what it takes. Angelo has made money on Fakhretdinov in every UFC fight and likes him even more now. He considers Fakhretdinov safe to parlay.

safe to parlay
"I love Rena in this fight you guys know I've been very high on him I have literally made money on him him in every single one of his UFC fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by decision. He notes Fakhretdinov's dominant wrestling, controlling Brian Battle for 14 minutes and taking down Andreas Michailidis five times. He believes Fakhretdinov can take down Zaleski and grind out a decision, though he's not sure about a finish. He acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and BJJ but favors Fakhretdinov's wrestling and cardio.

"give me we're not fuer enough to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Daniel Levi picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, impressed by his incredible stats: absorbs less than one strike per minute, 67% striking accuracy, over 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 100% takedown defense. He sees Fakhretdinov as a dominant wrestler who can control and finish fights. Levi respects Zaleski's toughness and highlight-reel kicks, but believes at 36 years old and coming off a suspension, Zaleski is in a tough spot. He expects Fakhretdinov to pressure, take him down, and possibly finish him.

Fakhretdinov wins by decision, Fakhretdinov wins inside distance
"I'm going Rinat here and I think he makes a statement."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

James bet on Zaleski at +290, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Zaleski has much better takedown defense than Fakhretdinov's previous opponents and that if the fight stays on the feet, Zaleski is the more educated striker with nasty setups. He worries that Zaleski may be washed and can get hurt early, as seen in the Abubakar fight, but he also has Russian intel suggesting Fakhretdinov may be dealing with an injury and might strike more than grapple. James sees value in Zaleski as an underdog.

James mentions he has Russian intel that Fakhretdinov may be injured and striking rather than grappling. He also notes that Zaleski is +290.
"I bet on zaleski man I bet on zaleski I don't love it... but I just think the line's a little bit wide here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Fakhretdinov is a strong grappler with high-level cardio who chains takedowns together well. Zaleski may fend off takedowns early, but as the fight goes on, Fakhretdinov's pressure will be too much. He will accumulate top control time and win by decision. The line is a bit wide but Fakhretdinov should implement his style without too much resistance.

win by decision
"I believe that Fakhretdinov can go out there and implement his style without too much resistance allowing him to get his hand raised like I said by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He acknowledges Zaleski's underrated resume but notes his age and recent performances. The Guru highlights Fakhretdinov's dominant win over Brian Battle and his improving hands, combining grappling and striking. He believes Fakhretdinov's athleticism and pressure will be too much for the older Zaleski, predicting a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go rat for ketanov... renat is just undeniable I think at this point"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 29 of 54 53% 48 of 76 1 of 8 12% 0 0 6:16
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 42 of 113 37% 50 of 132 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 16 75% 15 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 34 29% 10 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 5 of 16 31% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:20
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:17
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 47 38% 21 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 29 of 54 53% 13 of 37 6 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 48 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 42 of 113 37% 16 of 75 13 of 22 13 of 16 27 of 87 15 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 16 75% 5 of 9 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 10 of 34 29% 3 of 21 5 of 10 2 of 3 5 of 22 5 of 12 0 of 0
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 5 of 16 31% 2 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 14 of 32 43% 3 of 17 4 of 6 7 of 9 10 of 26 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 22 54% 6 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 4 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 18 of 47 38% 10 of 37 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 39 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov, citing the long layoff for Zaleski (1.5 years) and Nurmagomedov's wrestling pressure. He thinks Zaleski tends to lose to wrestlers and has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Angelo bet Nurmagomedov at +120 for a quarter unit. He acknowledges the line is tightening but still favors the active fighter.

Bet 0.25 units on Nurmagomedov at +120.
"I like him in this matchup I picked him I bet him early I got him at plus 120"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, citing Zaleski's poor takedown defense (67%) and history of being taken down by wrestlers. He notes Zaleski has never faced a wrestler like Nurmagomedov, and that his long layoff and past drug test issues are red flags. Cody thinks Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be enough to grind out a win, even if he's not a high-volume takedown artist.

"I'm not under Santa's guy so normally made of definitely the worst of the normagamedovs that's still pretty good right so I will take"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski despite acknowledging Abubakar's wrestling advantage, because he believes Abubakar's poor athleticism and tendency to gas will lead to a fade. He notes that Zaleski is a physical freak who doesn't fall apart easily, and that Abubakar's wrestling often leads to his own cardio issues. Connor expects Zaleski to rally after an initial tough round, possibly winning by KO as Abubakar tires.

Odds shift from Zaleski -142 to -103, Abubakar +128 to -107
"I'm gonna pick zalaski. I think abubakar will fade and zalaski will rally"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Abubakar, citing Zaleski's age (36) and recent PED suspension as reasons he may not look the same. He believes Abubakar is catching him at the perfect time and can outwork him with a grinding decision. He notes that Zaleski has historically been a violence king, but the suspension and age are major concerns.

"I'm actually going abubakar nor magomedov and I'm considering a bet"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his leg kicks and striking will neutralize Nurmagomedov's takedowns. He thinks Zaleski's performance against Saint Denis showed improved takedown defense. Jacob notes Nurmagomedov is flat-footed and not overly dominant in wrestling. He expects Zaleski to light up the lead leg and win by finish or decision.

"I'm going zoleski all the way I'm pretty confident in him in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov has shown improved striking and a reliable grappling game. Zaleski is dangerous but coming off a long layoff and suspension. Nurmagomedov will land takedowns, control from top, and grind out a decision. Zaleski could pull off a submission or knockout, but the Dagestani wrestler is the safer pick.

"I'm gonna lean with the more reliable fighter in nuremaga made of gimme him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul picks Zaleski dos Santos as a slight underdog. He notes the line movement to Nurmagomedov as favorite is undeserved, and that Zaleski is the more dangerous striker with freakish power. Paul mentions Zaleski's takedown defense is a concern, but he thinks if the fight stays standing, Zaleski has a significant advantage. He also notes Zaleski's long layoff and past drug test issues but still sides with him.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by KO at +400; Over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I'm interested in Elijah's zoleski dos Santos he could get himself in trouble throwing a bunch of spinning stuff getting taken down in that way but it's like if you're on abubakar I feel like while they're on the feet …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov, comparing the matchup to a knockoff Khabib vs Edson Barboza. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos throws a lot of kicks on the back foot and lacks pace, and hasn't fought since October 2021 (over a year and a half off). He believes Nurmagomedov's grappling, pressure, and pace will be the difference, though he acknowledges Nurmagomedov has had iffy performances. He thinks the grappling of Nurmagomedov gets the win.

"I'm gonna go with Abu Bakr name again of I think it's the logical match up here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov based on his strong positional grappling and wrestling advantage. He notes that Zaleski has poor takedown defense, having been taken down six times by Nicolas Dalby, and that few opponents have tested his wrestling since. Zane believes Abubakar's takedowns and top control will be decisive, though he acknowledges Abubakar's cardio issues could be a factor if he fails to finish early.

"I am going to take namaga made off"
Decision (unanimous) (29–26, 29–26, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 149 of 259 57% 167 of 279 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:00
Benoît Saint Denis 0 67 of 148 45% 80 of 162 2 of 14 14% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 30 of 53 56% 31 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:18
Benoît Saint Denis 0 19 of 45 42% 21 of 47 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:58
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 94 of 160 58% 106 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Benoît Saint Denis 0 28 of 67 41% 37 of 76 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:25
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 25 of 46 54% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Benoît Saint Denis 0 20 of 36 55% 22 of 39 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 149 of 259 57% 96 of 200 37 of 42 16 of 17 112 of 207 32 of 47 5 of 5
Benoît Saint Denis 67 of 148 45% 40 of 114 20 of 27 7 of 7 64 of 140 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 30 of 53 56% 11 of 34 9 of 9 10 of 10 29 of 50 1 of 3 0 of 0
Benoît Saint Denis 19 of 45 42% 7 of 29 8 of 12 4 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 94 of 160 58% 76 of 139 17 of 20 1 of 1 63 of 116 29 of 42 2 of 2
Benoît Saint Denis 28 of 67 41% 22 of 59 5 of 7 1 of 1 25 of 62 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 25 of 46 54% 9 of 27 11 of 13 5 of 6 20 of 41 2 of 2 3 of 3
Benoît Saint Denis 20 of 36 55% 11 of 26 7 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks the underdog Benoît Saint Denis, citing his wrestling style as a key advantage. He notes that Benoît's low-level takedowns and pressure on top can neutralize Zaleski's dangerous capoeira striking. However, he expresses concern about Benoît's inexperience at this level, as he is only 8-0 and this is a big step up. He mentions he would bet if the line moved to +170, but is hesitant at current odds.

Would bet at +170; considering over 1.5 rounds; mentions 58 strikes as a concern
"i'm gonna side with the underdog here i like zaleski athletic dangerous good forward pressure really good wrestling i i i you know i i like it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win by knockout in the second or third round. He views Saint Denis as too green, sloppy, and making too many mistakes. Zaleski is a well-rounded veteran with good striking and grappling. He expects Zaleski to teach Saint Denis a veteran lesson and get a finish. He is confident in the pick despite Saint Denis's finishing ability.

Zaleski by knockout (round 2 or 3)
"I'm going to take elijah's los quiero santos to win i'm gonna take him to win by knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Cody agrees, noting Zaleski's experience and wins over Sean Strickland, Lyman Good, Max Griffin. He thinks Saint Denis will have early success with wrestling but will fatigue, and Zaleski will take over. He compares Saint Denis to a Contender Series fighter who gassed when faced with resistance.

"i feel like zoloskuro santos is rightfully so the favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Daniel picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, citing his battle-tested experience and versatility. He notes Zaleski's wins over Sean Strickland and his submission game. Daniel believes there are levels to the game and Zaleski will catch Saint Denis on a sloppy shot, possibly by submission or flying knee. He respects Saint Denis's regional success but thinks the step up in competition is too much.

predicts submission or flying knee
"give me elizabeth to win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his striking and ability to get back to his feet in scrambles will be decisive. He acknowledges Benoît's wrestling but thinks Zaleski can hold his own on the ground and win the striking exchanges. He is not super confident and dislikes the -850 line, but if forced to pick, he goes with Zaleski.

Mentions -850 line as unfavorable; considers over 1.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go zelesky on this not super confident i don't like the 8 500 but um if i had to pick i would pick zleski"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zaleski is the more experienced veteran with good takedown defense and striking. Saint Denis is a submission hunter who gives up positions; if he doesn't finish early, Zaleski will find a knockout on the feet. Zaleski should survive the early onslaught and finish in the second round.

Under 2.5 rounds if better than +150, Zaleski by KO.
"I do lean the veteran though i do think that zaleski will be able to keep the fight standing or at least get it to the point where it's standing and then find that knockout shortly thereafter."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul picks Zaleski, citing his experience (12 UFC fights) and striking advantage. He thinks Saint Denis is hittable and robotic. He notes Zaleski has BJJ black belt in case it goes to the ground. He expects Zaleski to use veteran craftiness to keep it standing and eventually finish or win a decision.

"you're gonna have to go with the right rifle favorite aleski uh zaleski to santos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis as an underdog. He highlights Saint Denis's great grappling, youth (25 vs 35), and activity. He notes that Zaleski has slowed down in recent fights, throwing less volume to conserve energy. He expects Saint Denis to pressure and stick to Zaleski with sticky grappling, taking him down repeatedly. He predicts a third-round submission as Zaleski fades.

third round submission
"i'm gonna go with the underdog i do believe i haven't seen odds anywhere so i think he's the underdog uh saint denis benoit i'm gonna go with him"
LOSS vs Muslim Salikhov
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muslim Salikhov 0 46 of 138 33% 46 of 138 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:53
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 40 of 88 45% 40 of 88 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muslim Salikhov 0 20 of 50 40% 20 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Muslim Salikhov 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 41 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Muslim Salikhov 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muslim Salikhov 46 of 138 33% 23 of 98 11 of 25 12 of 15 35 of 124 3 of 4 8 of 10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 40 of 88 45% 23 of 64 8 of 14 9 of 10 38 of 86 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muslim Salikhov 20 of 50 40% 11 of 36 4 of 9 5 of 5 10 of 37 2 of 3 8 of 10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 14 of 23 60% 6 of 14 3 of 4 5 of 5 12 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Muslim Salikhov 9 of 41 21% 3 of 28 5 of 9 1 of 4 8 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 13 of 27 48% 8 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 3 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Muslim Salikhov 17 of 47 36% 9 of 34 2 of 7 6 of 6 17 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 13 of 38 34% 9 of 30 3 of 6 1 of 2 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Muslim Salikhov

Round 1
In what could be a terrific battle between two high-flying strikers, it’s Capoeira vs. Kung Fu as Zaleski dos Santos (22-6, 8-2 UFC) comes to blows with Salikhov (16-2, 0-0 UFC). Hanging on tight is referee Herb Dean, who will have a tall task ahead in this welterweight scrap. The two flashy strikers touch gloves, and both paw out left hands that fall short. Zaleski dos Santos kicks low, and fakes to kick high, drawing a reaction from his opponent. The Dagestani fighter counters with a looping right, and Zaleski dos Santos evades it in time. Salikhov lands with a low kick, and Zaleski dos Santos connects to the body, which marks up Salikhov’s torso immediately. He slaps another body kick, so Salikhov counters with a right and follows it with a leg kick. Salikhov throws a low kick, avoids the counter and catches Zaleski dos Santos at the end of a left hand. Zaleski dos Santos charges forward with a salvo of punches, and lands a few in the process. Salikhov spins with a kick, and Zaleski dos Santos blocks it without much effort. When Zaleski dos Santos kicks to the lead leg, Salikhov times an overhand right that zings across the hair of his foe. Salikhov digs to the body with a spinning back kick, and this time Zaleski dos Santos is not quick enough to defend it. He comes back with a spinning wheel kick, and Salikhov blocks it, so Zaleski dos Santos charges forward with a few punches. Salikhov blocks them and fires another quick spinning back kick to the midsection. A powerful left hand from Salikhov stings Zaleski dos Santos, pausing the Brazilian for a moment. Zaleski dos Santos shoots in low for a takedown, and the Dagestani fighter stuffs it but gets tied up in a clinch. Zaleski dos Santos lifts a few knees up to the body, until Salikhov pushes himself free. Zaleski dos Santos wings up with a massive right hand, hurting Salikhov, so “Capoeira” chases after him with a few more. Salikhov shoots for a desperation takedown, and he lands it, but Zaleski dos Santos reverses the position and ends the round wailing on him with punches.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos

Round 2
Zaleski dos Santos opens up the round with a low kick, and a one-two finds its home as “King of Kung Fu” looks to back off and get in his own rhythm. Zaleski dos Santos stings him with a right, and Salikhov fires back with a powerful left that makes Zaleski dos Santos take a step back. Salikhov kicks low, and takes a few jabs and backpedals to avoid a blitz from the Brazilian. Salikhov kicks to the body, so Zaleski dos Santos spins with a wheel kick. Salikhov catches the kick in midair, and throws Zaleski dos Santos down to the ground like a sack of flour. When Zaleski dos Santos gets back up, the two laugh it off, until Zaleski dos Santos winds up with a massive right hand that rings his opponent’s bell. As he plows forward with offense, Zaleski dos Santos ties him up and tries to wrench the fight down with a body lock takedown. Salikhov staves it off, so Zaleski dos Santos delivers a couple knees up the middle. Salikhov pushes away, and the two take the center of the cage again. Zaleski dos Santos flicks out a few jabs, and follows one with a windmilling right hand that Salikhov sees coming from a mile away. Salikhov throws another spinning kick, and Zaleski dos Santos returns fire with an identical kick. Zaleski dos Santos chains that kick with a high kick, and Salikhov blocks it and fires a speedy wheel kick that just misses Zaleski dos Santos’s head. The Brazilian pops out a jab, and a one-two is delivered part and parcel. The two trade single strikes until we hear the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos

Round 3
The two men touch gloves to start the last round, and Zaleski dos Santos introduces his foot to the side of Salikhov’s midsection. A few jabs from the Brazilian keep Salikhov back, until the Dagestani fighter rings home a right hand. Zaleski dos Santos digs to the body with a front kick, and keeps his momentum by spinning into a capoeira kick. Salikhov evades it and responds with an overhand left that gets Zaleski dos Santos’ attention. After a tepid moment where the two lazily throw out jabs, Salikhov misses with a leaping left hand. The two jab each other in the face at the same time, and Zaleski dos Santos works a low kick into a right hand that is inches short of full impact. Salikhov rushes in with a big punch, and Zaleski dos Santos catches him with a thudding counter, forcing Salikhov to take step backwards. “King of Kung Fu” is stalking down Zaleski dos Santos around the cage, with a leg kick and a few punches to try to make the Brazilian back away. A right hand from Salikhov connects, and when he sees a punch coming, he counters Zaleski dos Santos with a stiff right. Two punches swing by Salikhov’s head, so the Dagestani fighter comes back at him with a right. Salikhov jabs to the body as he avoids a foot to the face, but these two strikers are dwindling to single strikes. With no setup, Salikhov fires off a spinning back kick that glances off the side of Zaleski dos Santos’ head. Salikhov stalks him down but does not unload on him, and backs away while goading his opponent to come at him. “Capoeira” winds up with seconds to go with a spinning tornado kick, and Salikhov is well out of the way, applauding as the kick goes flying. Time expires, and this fight goes the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (29-28 Zaleski dos Santos)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos (30-27 Zaleski dos Santos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (29-28 Zaleski dos Santos)

The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by decision, believing he will outwork Salikhov with higher output. He thinks Salikhov's only path is a knockout, but Zaleski has a good chin and can also win via takedowns or submission. He considers Zaleski underrated and the slight favorite should be him.

"i am going with eliza zalewski here ... i think he's gonna throw more ... i'm banking on the output here i'm banking on zaleski to land more avoid that knockout shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, emphasizing his speed, accuracy, and power on the feet. He believes Salikhov will knock out Zaleski if they stand, and notes improved takedown defense. He criticizes the narrative that Zaleski can out-volume Salikhov, saying Salikhov's shots are fight-changing. He also mentions the location (Abu Dhabi) may favor Salikhov in a decision.

predicts KO or decision win for Salikhov
"I think when Muslim Sulli cough touches him it's gonna either drop him rock him or knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zaleski is a better grappler and jiu-jitsu player. He can use his capoeira striking to set up takedowns and exploit Salikhov's flaws on the ground. The line at +115 is good value, as the fight should be closer to a pick'em. Picks Zaleski by second-round submission.

submission in second round, dog odds +115
"I like Zaleski dos Santos to win this fight by second round submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

The Guru picks Zaleski dos Santos by TKO, saying he thinks he gets it done by decision or TKO. He does not elaborate further.

"I've got a Liz user Leske dos Santos by - huge I think he gets it done by this ish"
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."