Career Averages - Rinya Nakamura
Career Averages - Nathan Fletcher
Rinya Nakamura
Nathan Fletcher
Rinya Nakamura - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muin Gafurov | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 1 | 37 of 90 | 41% | 73 of 130 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muin Gafurov | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 42 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:35 | |
| 2 | Muin Gafurov | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 1 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 | |
| 3 | Muin Gafurov | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muin Gafurov | 31 of 73 | 42% | 10 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 20 | 28 of 70 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 37 of 90 | 41% | 20 of 65 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 13 | 32 of 76 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muin Gafurov | 10 of 24 | 41% | 0 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 12 of 29 | 41% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | |
| 2 | Muin Gafurov | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Muin Gafurov | 12 of 25 | 48% | 5 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rinya Nakamura | 11 of 29 | 37% | 4 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Rinya Nakamura, highlighting his high-level wrestling, power, and the fact that Muin Gafurov was taken down three times by Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Nakamura's wrestling advantage will be decisive and that the -400 price is justified, unlike other favorites on the card.
Cody picks Rinya Nakamura confidently, viewing him as a top prospect. He highlights Nakamura's Olympic-level wrestling, fluid transitions, and improving striking. Cody notes that Gafurov has poor takedown defense and tends to gas, as seen against John Castaneda. Nakamura's wrestling and cardio should be too much. Cody expects Nakamura to take Gafurov down repeatedly and control the fight, possibly earning a finish. Nakamura is part of the Saftic Super Boost.
Daniel picks Nakamura, citing his physicality, strong grappling, and good hands. He notes that Gafurov is well-rounded but lacks athleticism and can be out-hustled. Daniel expects a competitive decision but thinks Nakamura grinds out the win. He is not betting due to the high price.
The host sees Nakamura as the future of the division, praising his wrestling, chain wrestling, and knockout power. He expects Nakamura to use a combination of those traits to win a decision over Gafurov.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nakamura. He notes that Gafurov has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Nakamura's wrestling pedigree is elite. Paul believes Nakamura will find takedowns early and often, banking control time. He also mentions that a submission is possible but not guaranteed. Nakamura is a solid parlay piece for Paul.
The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura but expresses hesitation. He worries about Nakamura's wrestling-heavy style that may not translate to finishes in MMA, similar to Raul Rosas Jr. However, he notes that Muin Gafurov is 'fat and terrible' and that Nakamura has dangerous stand-up with pop on his punches. He also likes that Nakamura had time off to fix issues and expects him to come in good form.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 73 of 114 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 13:03 |
| Carlos Vera | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 55 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:20 |
| Carlos Vera | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 25 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:34 |
| Carlos Vera | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 24 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
| Carlos Vera | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 38 of 70 | 54% | 30 of 61 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 60 |
| Carlos Vera | 12 of 25 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 16 of 31 | 51% | 11 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 |
| Carlos Vera | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Rinya Nakamura | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 16 |
| Carlos Vera | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Rinya Nakamura | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 |
| Carlos Vera | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo calls Rinya Nakamura a lock, citing his high-level wrestling, submissions, and power. He notes Carlos Vera is stepping up on short notice and has poor takedowns. He advises against parlaying Nakamura if the odds are too high, but expects him to win easily.
Big Brady picks Rinya Nakamura to win by first-round submission. He calls it a terrible matchup for Carlos Vera, who has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He expects Nakamura to take him down easily and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He questions why the fight was sanctioned given the massive favorite line.
Cody picks Nakamura, agreeing he is the goods. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physical strength. He mentions that Vera is a late replacement who lost on TUF and is not UFC caliber. He expects Nakamura to take him down and submit him, though he warns that Fernie Garcia was hard to submit.
Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, agreeing with Jeff. He says even if it weren't short notice, Nakamura would be the pick. He doesn't elaborate further, but his agreement is clear.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rinya Nakamura, stating he is better everywhere—more explosive, stronger, better striker and grappler. He considers it a mismatch and believes Nakamura can neutralize Vera's opportunistic submissions. He thinks the odds are accurate.
Jeff picks Rinya Nakamura, stating it's an obvious choice. He notes that Carlos Vera lost to Brad Katona on TUF, getting manhandled. He thinks Vera's tendency to jump guillotine will make Nakamura's takedowns easier. He expects Nakamura to dominate on top and suggests looking at round 1 submission props.
Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with Olympic pedigree, but has relied on power punching recently. He has all advantages over the 36-year-old debuting Vera. Expects Nakamura to go 9-0 with an early stoppage.
Paul picks Nakamura, calling him the best prospect from Road to UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling accolades, power, and grappling. He sees Vera as a 36-year-old debutant who lost on TUF and is being fed to Nakamura. He suggests a submission prop, as Vera has been submitted before and gives up his back.
The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his superior grappling potential and dangerous striking. He criticizes Carlos Vera as an older fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts Nakamura could get a KO early or a ground-and-pound decision, though he notes Nakamura needs to work on finishing from dominant positions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 56 of 84 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 15 of 66 | 22% | 50 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 17 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 21 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 6 of 30 | 20% | 13 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 36 of 57 | 63% | 16 of 31 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 13 |
| Fernie Garcia | 15 of 66 | 22% | 9 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 6 | 13 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 9 of 13 | 69% | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Fernie Garcia | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Rinya Nakamura | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Fernie Garcia | 6 of 28 | 21% | 3 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rinya Nakamura | 16 of 22 | 72% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Fernie Garcia | 6 of 30 | 20% | 4 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with powerful striking and should dominate Garcia. He notes that Nakamura is a -700 favorite, but he personally avoids betting such heavy favorites due to the risk, citing examples like Valentina Shevchenko losing as a huge favorite. He thinks Nakamura wins 99 out of 100 times but won't lay the price.
Big Brady is very high on Rinya Nakamura, calling him a future star with excellent wrestling, grappling, and power. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Fernie Garcia, who was dominated by a lesser wrestler in Brady Hiestand. He expects Nakamura to finish the fight in the first round, whether by knockout or submission, and criticizes the matchmaking.
Cody is high on Nakamura as a top prospect with elite wrestling and improving striking. He expects Nakamura to dominate Garcia, who has shown poor takedown defense. Cody likes the submission prop at plus 275, noting Nakamura's grappling pedigree.
Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and power. He notes that Nakamura can fall back on his wrestling if the striking gets tough, and that Garcia is a liability on the ground. He mentions that Garcia has heavy hands but low output and poor takedown defense. He is confident Nakamura wins, though he notes that Nakamura sometimes gets clipped standing.
James is confident Nakamura wins but does not bet due to the short odds. He notes Nakamura is a brutal round one finisher but warns that the fight could go to decision if Nakamura wrestles. He sees Garcia as a tough guy who can survive, and considers the over 1.5 rounds at +150 as a potential play, though he ultimately passes.
The host highlights Nakamura's wrestling background and finishing ability, noting he has finished all but one opponent. He expects Nakamura to take Garcia down easily, as Garcia has struggled with wrestlers before (e.g., Brady Hiestand). The host predicts a finish within the first two rounds and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees Nakamura is a huge favorite and a setup fight by the UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Garcia. Paul expects a win but is cautious about the price, suggesting a decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura as the lock of the card, predicting a first-round knockout of Fernie Garcia. He praises Nakamura's wrestling background, KO power, and chin, calling him one of the best prospects. He dismisses Garcia as a 31-year-old on a two-fight losing streak. He believes Nakamura has advantages in wrestling, stand-up, power, and chin, and will smoke Garcia in the first two minutes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Toshiomi Kazama | 2 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Toshiomi Kazama | 2 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Toshiomi Kazama | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Toshiomi Kazama | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady is high on Nakamura's world-class wrestling and knockout power. He thinks Kazama will struggle to take down a wrestler of Nakamura's caliber and will be knocked out early. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Nakamura inside the distance, calling him the best prospect on the card. He notes Nakamura's world-class wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He expects Nakamura to take Kazama down and finish, possibly by submission. He also considers a small sprinkle on Nakamura by submission at +800.
Connor agrees, noting that Kazama's insistence on wrestling will play into Nakamura's strengths. He points out that Kazama's bag of tricks may not work against a superior athlete, and that Nakamura has shown rapid improvement. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Nakamura to showcase his development.
Paul picks Nakamura inside the distance, emphasizing his wrestling background and MMA upbringing. He notes Nakamura's ability to strike or grapple, and expects him to knock out Kazama. He thinks Kazama's guard-pulling style will not work against Nakamura's physicality.
Zane highlights Nakamura's rapid improvement and wrestling background, noting that he has become a more aggressive combination puncher with natural instincts for pressuring. He contrasts this with Kazama, who is crafty but not a great athlete and tends to lose wrestling exchanges as fights go on. He believes Nakamura's higher ceiling and athleticism will prevail.
Nathan Fletcher - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinya Nakamura | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Nathan Fletcher | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 59 of 100 | 59% | 114 of 158 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 30 of 84 | 35% | 65 of 128 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 24 of 48 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 64 of 73 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 30 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 27 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Fletcher | 59 of 100 | 59% | 41 of 79 | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 33 of 40 | 1 of 3 |
| Caolán Loughran | 30 of 84 | 35% | 22 of 67 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 24 of 75 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Fletcher | 15 of 38 | 39% | 8 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 3 |
| Caolán Loughran | 12 of 36 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nathan Fletcher | 20 of 26 | 76% | 18 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Caolán Loughran | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nathan Fletcher | 24 of 36 | 66% | 15 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 21 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Caolán Loughran | 15 of 34 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nathan Fletcher, expressing strong dislike for Caolán Loughran's fighting style and personality. He criticizes Loughran for being non-committal, low volume, and failing to use his skills. Fletcher is described as a pressure fighter with good cardio and a never-quit attitude. Angelo expects the fight to go to decision due to Loughran's hesitance.
Brady thinks Loughran has a striking advantage and can take down Fletcher, despite Loughran's poor performance against Jake Hadley. He notes Fletcher gets reversed often and was controlled by Conor O'Malley. Brady expects a competitive fight but picks Loughran to win by decision.
The host notes that Loughran has improved tremendously since their amateur fight six years ago, and his strength and physicality will shut down Fletcher's grappling. He expects Loughran to keep Fletcher on the defensive and grind out a win.
The Guru is confident in Nathan Fletcher, praising his fluidity, head movement, and grappling compared to Loughran's stiffness. He describes Loughran as a 'Marvin Vettori of bantamweight'—tough but non-fluid and hittable. He believes Fletcher's better defense, reach advantage, and dynamic scrambles will be decisive. He expects Fletcher to win, possibly by decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 1:51 |
| Žygimantas Ramaška | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 40 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 1:45 |
| Žygimantas Ramaška | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 34 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 | |
| 2 | Nathan Fletcher | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Žygimantas Ramaška | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Fletcher | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Žygimantas Ramaška | 14 of 20 | 70% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Fletcher | 6 of 8 | 75% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Žygimantas Ramaška | 13 of 19 | 68% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 | |
| 2 | Nathan Fletcher | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Žygimantas Ramaška | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Nathan Fletcher because he is a well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and striking, and he believes Nathan can land cleaner strikes and take the fight to the ground if needed. He notes that Žygimantas is chinny and hitable, and can be taken down due to his aggressive style. However, he is not betting on this fight due to medical issues and uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Žygimantas Ramaška to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ramaška is a striker with knockout power, while Fletcher is a grappler who will look for takedowns. Brady believes Ramaška has more paths to victory, including the knockout threat and doing more damage overall, and that Fletcher has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Fletcher's path via takedowns and top control but favors Ramaška's striking and power.
Cody picks Fletcher, citing his wrestling advantage and Ramaška's vulnerability to grapplers. He notes Fletcher's cardio is a concern but believes he can get takedowns and control the fight. He is not highly confident but sees value.
Daniel admits he couldn't watch their Ultimate Fighter fights due to playback errors, so his analysis is limited. He heard Ramaška is exciting but leaves openings, while Fletcher is more cautious. He picks Fletcher again (as he did when the fight was first booked), but warns not to trust his pick.
Fletcher's grappling is expected to be too much for Ramaška, who has questionable takedown defense. Fletcher trains with Paddy Pimblett and has a strong BJJ game, likely securing a submission within a round and a half. However, there is some hesitation due to Fletcher's recent illness, so the bet size is reduced compared to the original play.
Paul picks Fletcher, believing his wrestling and grappling can neutralize Ramaška's striking. He notes Ramaška's losses come against wrestlers, and Fletcher has a path via takedowns and control. He is hesitant due to Fletcher's recent illness and cardio concerns.
The MMA Guru picks Žygimantas Ramaška over Nathan Fletcher. He notes that Fletcher is a bantamweight moving up to featherweight, which he dislikes because Fletcher will be the smaller man. He believes Ramaška's length and range will keep Fletcher at bay, similar to how Dominick Wooding handled him. He predicts a late-round TKO or decision for Ramaška.
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