UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Chris Duncan
4.83 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.57 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.92 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mateusz Rębecki
5.21 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
3.38 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Chris Duncan
Moneyline
Caesars +205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
Unibet +1300
Decision
FanDuel +600
Mateusz Rębecki
Moneyline
BetWay -225
KO/TKO
BetWay +175
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
FanDuel +300
Chris Duncan - Fight History
LOSS vs Renato Moicano
Submission R2 3:14 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Renato Moicano 0 21 of 36 58% 62 of 84 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:16
Chris Duncan 0 27 of 62 43% 30 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Renato Moicano 0 14 of 20 70% 16 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Chris Duncan 0 17 of 38 44% 19 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Renato Moicano 0 7 of 16 43% 46 of 62 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:03
Chris Duncan 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Renato Moicano 21 of 36 58% 16 of 31 4 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 1
Chris Duncan 27 of 62 43% 8 of 39 5 of 7 14 of 16 25 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Renato Moicano 14 of 20 70% 10 of 16 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Duncan 17 of 38 44% 3 of 22 3 of 3 11 of 13 15 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Renato Moicano 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Chris Duncan 10 of 24 41% 5 of 17 2 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan, noting his durability and never-quit attitude. He acknowledges Moicano is more technical and experienced but believes Moicano is old and used up. He points out that Duncan has a history of winning fights he's not supposed to and that Moicano's recent focus may not be enough. Angelo has no bet on this fight.

"Chris Duncan is going to be the pick. I think Moano is a little too old and used up at this point."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Moicano is dangerous in the first round but fades after that, citing the Dariush fight where Moicano did nothing in the last 10 minutes. He believes Duncan has better cardio, durability, and power, and that his takedown defense has improved since the Manuel Torres loss. He expects Duncan to drop the first round but take over and eventually knock out Moicano.

Duncan by KO in round 3
"I'm going to take Chris Duncan to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody picks Duncan due to his momentum, youth, and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes Moicano's losing streak and potential lack of focus, but acknowledges the fight could be competitive early. He expects Duncan's superior striking and work rate to secure a win.

"Personally, I'm going to end up going Duncan just being that he's the younger guy. He's got a whole lot of momentum right now."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host finds it difficult to bet pre-fight. He notes Duncan is easy to take down, which plays into Moicano's strength, but Moicano's chin and cardio are questionable in a five-round fight. He sees value on neither side and will watch for live betting. He also notes the odds for 'fight doesn't go to decision' are terrible.

Odds for fight not to go to decision are terrible, so no bet.
"So for me, it's a very difficult for a pre-fight bet. And I'll probably give this one a miss pre-fight. Um, difficult fight to pre-fight. Hopefully we can live bet it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing Duncan's upward trajectory, age advantage (32 vs 36), superior cardio, durability, and will to win. He notes Moicano's possible decline due to outside interests and a longer camp. James expects a war but believes Duncan's physicality and recoverability will carry him, especially in later rounds. He mentions Duncan's power and takedown defense as key factors, though he acknowledges Moicano's early speed and submission threat. James states he won't bet publicly due to friendship bias but will have 'beer money' on Duncan.

No public bet; beer money on Duncan moneyline
"I'm picking Chris to win this one. I think it's going to be a good fight. I think it's going to be another war, honestly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing his durability and power advantage over Moicano. He believes Duncan's momentum and shorter camp have him in peak form, and he predicts a fourth-round TKO finish. James also notes that Duncan's confidence is high from training with Moicano and seeing his own improvement.

Fourth round TKO
"I definitely think you got a durability advantage here. I think you got a power advantage. So, those two put together."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James is rooting for his friend Chris Duncan and has released a full breakdown video with him. He mentions Chris is his friend and he will be rooting for him against Moicano, indicating a clear pick for Duncan.

"I'm definitely going to be rooting for him against Moicano this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host expects Duncan to counter Moicano effectively, showcase good grappling defense, and eventually break Moicano for a finish inside the distance. He notes Moicano's recent struggles, poor durability, and questionable gas tank, while Duncan is on a four-fight winning streak with evolving skills. The host predicts a second-round TKO or submission for Duncan.

under 2.5 rounds at -125
"I look for Duncan to counter Moano effectively... I think at a certain point within 10 maybe 12 and a half minutes we will see one of these guys get a finish. And I'm expecting it to be the Scott …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul leans towards Duncan, citing that Moicano struggles when outwrestled. He expects Duncan to use takedowns and control to win, though he's not heavily invested and plans to live bet.

"Duncan minus 170. Um, it's how I'd play it if I were to click the button right now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Chris Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan, admitting he has doubted him before but is now convinced. He believes Duncan's durability, grit, and damage output will overcome Moicano, especially if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Moicano hasn't looked himself and that Duncan has good submission defense. He predicts a third-round TKO.

Third-round TKO predicted
"I'm taking Duncan to win. I'm done doubting him. I'm done doubting Dunk."
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.

"I'm going to pick Terence McKini. Don't do anything with that information. These odds aren't good enough to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.

Duncan by first round knockout
"I'm going to say Duncan weathers the early storm and knocks out Terrence McKenna in very brutal fashion late in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.

"I'm gonna go with the Terrence McKenna side. Uh, but I will say with the caveat of um I feel like a Duncan round two prop at like plus 450 plus plus 600's out there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.

"I have to prick Chris Duncan the way, especially the way Chris Duncan is now. Like that's what I was going to say. Chris Duncan, I think has really gotten a lot better in a pretty short period of time."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.

"I am going to pick Chris Duncan. There's obviously a chance he gets finished in the first, but if he doesn't, he's got multiple avenues to victory."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.

Chris Duncan inside the distance
"I got Chris all day here, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think that we'll see Duncan eventually take advantage of McKenny's overaggressive style and find that finish under one and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.

"I'm going to actually go with Chris Duncan in this spot. Just he's got more ways to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Terrence McKini getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Chris Duncan."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.

Duncan should be a bigger favorite
"I think Duncan could, that should actually be a bunch bigger favorite. Frankly."
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 114 of 267 42% 123 of 278 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:23
Mateusz Rębecki 0 92 of 222 41% 95 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 32 of 74 43% 38 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 19 of 62 30% 19 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 38 of 88 43% 38 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mateusz Rębecki 0 25 of 62 40% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 44 of 105 41% 47 of 109 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
Mateusz Rębecki 0 48 of 98 48% 50 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 114 of 267 42% 88 of 235 7 of 13 19 of 19 104 of 256 10 of 11 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 92 of 222 41% 67 of 181 20 of 35 5 of 6 85 of 214 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 32 of 74 43% 20 of 61 1 of 2 11 of 11 30 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 19 of 62 30% 10 of 47 6 of 12 3 of 3 19 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 38 of 88 43% 32 of 78 0 of 4 6 of 6 38 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 25 of 62 40% 17 of 48 8 of 13 0 of 1 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 44 of 105 41% 36 of 96 6 of 7 2 of 2 36 of 96 8 of 9 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 48 of 98 48% 40 of 86 6 of 10 2 of 2 41 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)

Round 1
Remaining in the lightweight division for the co-main event, a pair of friends and training partners at American Top Team will throw down for Coconut Creek bragging rights. Both men happen to be a win or two from ranked opposition, so this “separating wheat from chaff” matchup has fairly high stakes relative to most other fights on the card—the preceding Rosa vs. Cornolle pairing was the lone bout on the card between two ranked combatants. Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) and Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC) will handle their business with matching 4-1 records in the UFC at stake, and referee Kerry Hatley will serve as the third man in the Octagon. The teammates touch gloves before determining how exactly how much pain they wish to inflict on one another.
Duncan leads off immediately with a head kick, and Rebecki comes right after him swinging. Rebecki loads up on his left hand, and Duncan knocks him back with his own right hook. The two are talking to one another as they load up with massive power—at this point, it appears they are going brawl it out. Rebecki knocks Duncan down to the ground with his swinging shots, and Duncan is able to get back to his feet. As they trade again, a giant mouse develops on the top right corner of Rebecki’s head. Rebecki takes Duncan down briefly, and Duncan threatens off his back with an elbow and then tries to get hold of a submission. Rebecki backs out and stands up, with Duncan following suit. Rebecki is quick get put his foot on the gas once more, and Duncan fires back with impunity and opens a cut on Rebecki’s forehead above his right eyebrow. Duncan sits down on an elbow that Rebecki eats like a steak, and Rebecki continues to walk through damaging blows.
Duncan stays on his back foot attacking with body kicks, and Rebecki gets close to him and drives home three quick punches. Duncan strikes with another elbow and whiffs on a head kick, and he recovers after getting countered. Duncan goes for a body kick, and Rebecki counters cleanly with a right hook. Duncan drives a knee to the body and falls to his back, and Rebecki tackles him down and looks to get to the guard. Duncan turns over while under fire to get to his feet, and Rebecki is clinging to him from behind. Rebecki leans on his training partner, and Duncan grabs the fence to get a better position. Duncan breaks out of the grip around his waist, and they proceed to trade long straight punches. Duncan steps in with a knee and is wobbled by an overhand right. Rebecki swings with everything he has, a left hand jacking Duncan in the jaw but not hurting him. Duncan scores a few elbows, and the tense, vicious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Rebecki comes right out of his corner ready to attack, and he does just that by nailing Duncan with a crisp one-two. Duncan counters with a right hand, and he is reached by a left hook upstairs. Duncan delivers a body kick as Rebecki comes at him, and he does this again as Rebecki is trying to swing for the bleachers. Duncan misses on a kick, and Rebecki is bleeding again and strikes the body to open up head shots. Rebecki lobs a big left and a right that land flush on the sides of his foe’s head, and Duncan appears to get his foe’s attention with a sharp right hand. The Scotsman follows with a head kick that Rebecki somehow absorbs, barely still with it. Rebecki blinks it out and shoots for a double, and he takes a knee on the jaw on the way in. Duncan worms his way out the position to work back upright, and he elbows his teammate in the cut that has developed swelling around the gaping wound.
Rebecki does not care about the damage, blood in his eyes and a golf ball on his forehead, as he loops huge punches at Duncan again and again. Rebecki’s huge haymakers have swelled up Duncan’s eyes, and both men are going to need some recovery time when this is all said and done. Duncan rips a kick to the body and then stabs him in the torso with his toes. Rebecki lowers his guard to defend his guts, compromised from the strike, so Duncan attacks him with an elbow up top. Duncan goes to the body with kicks, and even when blocked, Rebecki takes them hard on the arms. Rebecki loads up on three punches to the dome, and he chases after Duncan with left hands as Duncan’s right eye balloons. Duncan kicks the front leg and jabs the gaping wound on his foe’s head, while Rebecki chases after him. Duncan knees him in the belly, and they trade hands right to the bell. Rebecki’s right eye is nearly swollen shut, and this one might not make it to the third round because of how trashed his face is.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
Rebecki is cleared between rounds, and he comes out of his corner like a berserker. Swinging his way forward to shoot for takedown, he gets Duncan down and pops back up without concern. Rebecki lets him up so he can punch him in the face, and they proceed to trade hilariously heavy leather. Duncan intercepts his hard-swinging foe with faster strikes, backing off the Polish brawler and forcing a shot out of him. Duncan stops it and blocks the oncoming fire, but Rebecki still gets through. Duncan lands a body kick, and Rebecki still manages to shoot in on his hips. Duncan hits the deck and threatens with an anaconda choke, rolling through it to lock it down, but Rebecki rolls through it further to escape. They both get up, and Duncan aims a head kick at Rebecki’s leaking visage. Rebecki looks for takedowns as he appears to be fading, while Duncan beats on him with elbows. Rebecki rips open a cut on Duncan’s left eye, and Duncan completely ignores it as he bashes Rebecki in the swollen eye. Just bleed indeed.
Rebecki has his right eye closed, and Duncan closes in to tie him up to get a few seconds to catch his wind before they re-engage. Duncan stabs the body with his foot, and Rebecki is right in his face slugging him. Rebecki loops a left hand and zips an uppercut through the guard. Both men are bloodied and battered, but they continue to bang. Duncan wobbles back, starting to feel it himself, and Rebecki somehow is willing himself into a second or third wind. Duncan pushes “Chinczyk” to the fence, and Rebecki explodes out and hurls punches in bunches. Duncan boots him in the head, and Rebecki is impossibly tough as he tanks it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Duncan lines up a knee to the forehead, and Rebecki unloads several uppercuts on the inside. They split up, and smash one another in the face right until time expires. Blood pours out of various wounds on both men, and Rebecki collapses to his knees while Duncan raises his arms in the air. What a titanic tussle, somehow outdoing the match before it and putting itself in contention for “Fight of the Year.” TLDR? Go back and watch this somehow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Duncan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Mateusz Rebecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.

"I think I'm gonna take Duncan here. I just like the potential for him as a finisher and as a power striker in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Submission round 2
"Chris Duncan submission round two after a war. He hurts Rebecki, jumps on the gilly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.

"I'll just take Rubisky. Yeah, it's been a minute since I've seen somebody like this does stand out to me on Chris Duncan's records that these are some pretty measured long range fighters that he has been taking on."
Submission R2 3:42 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Vucenic 0 16 of 26 61% 22 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Chris Duncan 1 15 of 40 37% 24 of 50 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Vucenic 0 1 of 3 33% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 9 of 13 69% 16 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
2 Jordan Vucenic 0 15 of 23 65% 18 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Chris Duncan 0 6 of 27 22% 8 of 29 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Vucenic 16 of 26 61% 13 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 4 12 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2
Chris Duncan 15 of 40 37% 9 of 31 5 of 5 1 of 4 8 of 30 1 of 2 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Vucenic 1 of 3 33% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Duncan 9 of 13 69% 5 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Jordan Vucenic 15 of 23 65% 12 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 19 2 of 2 2 of 2
Chris Duncan 6 of 27 22% 4 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Angelo picks Jordan Vucenic but is hesitant due to the heavy -350 odds. He acknowledges Vucenic looked good in his debut despite the loss, showing durability and danger. He worries about Chris Duncan's incredible durability and ability to come back from being beaten. He decides not to bet the fight due to the poor value.

"I am going to pick Jordan here but I I don't love these minus 350 odds and I'm not going to touch them"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Brady is high on Vucenic, praising his striking and opportunistic submission game. He thinks Vucenic has advantages everywhere: speed, durability, and grappling. He notes Chris Duncan is a walking punching bag and was submitted by Manuel Torres. Brady predicts a second-round submission.

Vucenic by submission round 2
"give me Jordan venage to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vucenic. He emphasizes Vucenic's technical boxing, lead right hand, and ability to finish fights, while Duncan struggles going backwards and lacks a jab. He believes Vucenic will boss Duncan around from the start.

Vucenic opened at -367, currently -400; Duncan opened at +254, currently +344.
"It does just look like this is good. Yeah, he's just gonna get to boss. Duncan around from the get-go."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

The host thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Vucenic to put together a better body of work and win on the scorecards. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds is the best way to bet this fight.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think the over one and a half is probably the best way to win this fight for Vu Chennich or at least bet this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

The Guru is confident in Jordan Vucenic, citing his speed, technical striking, and composure. He notes that Vucenic is much faster than Duncan and has reach at lightweight. He expects Vucenic to school Duncan over three rounds, winning a 30-27 decision, as Duncan is too slow and susceptible to getting caught in submissions.

decision 30-27
"I'm going with Jordan venik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Zane picks Vucenic confidently, highlighting his improved pressure fighting, technical striking, and finishing instincts. He contrasts Duncan's lack of a range game and poor defense going backwards, predicting Vucenic will overwhelm him. He notes Vucenic's loss to Kutateladze was competitive and he has since improved.

Vucenic opened at -367, currently -400; Duncan opened at +254, currently +344. Zane is surprised the line isn't wider.
"This feels like a very good fight for vucenic. Absolutely. One of the easier picks on the card for me."
WIN vs Bolaji Oki
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan as an underdog. He believes Duncan's willingness to stand in the pocket and pump a jab non-stop will frustrate Oki, who has defensive issues and gets hit often. Duncan's durability and ability to survive being dropped are key factors. Angelo notes he might sprinkle a small bet if Duncan's line becomes a bigger underdog.

might sprinkle a dollar or two if line moves to high pluses
"Chris Duncan's gonna win this fight... Chris has that solid jab... Chris has what seems like a very good chin..."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki but is hesitant due to Chris Duncan's poor striking defense (49%) and tendency to walk into shots. He notes Oki has power and could hurt Duncan, but thinks the fight could be close and competitive. He expects Oki to win by decision, possibly dropping Duncan at some point.

Oki by decision
"I'm going to take Oki here um I'm going to take him to win this fight either I'll say by decision maybe he hurts Duncan here or there maybe it drops him but I'm going to say Oki wins this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody leans towards Duncan as an underdog, citing Oki's questionable cardio and takedown defense. He notes that Duncan has wrestling and can take Oki down, potentially tiring him. However, he acknowledges Oki's power and the risk of getting knocked out. He doesn't plan to bet heavily.

"I'll side with Duncan strictly because these new gloves have ruined Knockouts"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Cody picks Bolaji Oki as his tournament play, highlighting his physicality, power, and early knockout potential. He notes Oki is minus 105 to win inside the distance and that Chris Duncan has been badly hurt in past fights. Cody believes Oki is a more technical and powerful striker with better durability, making him a sneaky tournament target at 8.8k.

win inside the distance (-105)
"I'm going to throw Bolaji Oki here at 8.8k against Chris Duncan... he's minus 105 to win inside the distance."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oki is a much cruder fighter despite being a better athlete. He thinks Duncan's experience and ability to game plan will be key. Connor also mentions that Duncan has shown flexibility in his approach, which should help him avoid Oki's early power.

"I think it's all backwards."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Daniel Vreeland picks Bolaji Oki to win by knockout. He thinks Oki is much faster and more powerful on the feet, and that Duncan is hittable and slow. He notes Oki's good takedown defense and counter-striking. He expects Oki to hurt Duncan and finish him, possibly with body shots.

wins by KO
"I'm going to pick hoki to to find a KO here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

JP picks Bolaji Oki because of his power and nine-fight win streak. He notes Oki has never been finished and Chris Duncan has been KO'd by Slava Claus and submitted by Manuel Torres, which he views as poor performances. JP believes Oki's power will be too much for Duncan.

"give me uh Oki by KO okay [ __ ] Duncan no way you're getting submitted by a bum like Torres"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Paul leans towards Oki, believing his power will eventually catch Duncan, who has a questionable chin. He notes that Oki's takedown defense is a concern, but Duncan's wrestling isn't elite. He expects Oki to land a knockout at some point, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I think at some point Oki just melts him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki over Chris Duncan, citing Oki's superior speed and fluidity. He notes that Duncan is slow for the division and hasn't impressed, while Oki looked technical in his UFC debut. He predicts Oki will land more damaging shots and win by decision.

"I'm going to go with bagok I think he'll just be a little bit more fluid a little bit more fast twist and I think that might be the difference in this fight so I'm going to pick him by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Duncan as an experience pick, noting that Duncan is reasonably well-rounded and can game plan. He thinks Duncan can lean on wrestling or aggressive striking to pressure Oki. However, he acknowledges Duncan has meltdown potential, but Oki doesn't have a grappling threat to trouble Duncan.

"My instinct is Duncan for what is essentially an experience pick."
LOSS vs Manuel Torres
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:46 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manuel Torres 0 3 of 5 60% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:42
Chris Duncan 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manuel Torres 0 3 of 5 60% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:42
Chris Duncan 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manuel Torres 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manuel Torres 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Angelo picks Torres as the more dangerous fighter, citing his length and finishing ability. He acknowledges Duncan's durability and toughness but believes Torres will eventually break him. He mentions that over 1.5 rounds might be solid but Torres is the pick.

over 1.5 rounds might be solid
"I am going to pick Torres here I think he's the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Torres has 15 finishes in 16 fights, all in the first round, and is a chaotic striker. He criticizes Chris Duncan's 49% striking defense and notes that Duncan has been knocked down and knocked out before. Brady believes Torres will draw Duncan into a brawl and that Torres has more power and durability. He expects the fight to end in the first round.

Torres wins by KO in round 1
"I'm going to take Torres to win this fight I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody picks Duncan as an underdog, noting that Torres is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio and grappling. He believes Duncan can take Torres down, make him carry weight, and grind him out. He mentions Duncan's improved wrestling and game plan against Ashmus. He acknowledges the risk of getting melted early but likes the plus price.

"dog number two for me I'll take Duncan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges Torres's power and early finishes but notes he overextends and can be countered. He believes Duncan is a more educated striker with a well-rounded game. If Duncan can survive the early onslaught, he can grind Torres against the cage and on the mat, finding a finish in the second or third round as Torres slows down.

Finish in second or third round
"I think if he can stay safe enough early in this fight he should be able to find those grinding opportunities up against the cage on the mat and the potential finishing opportunity in the second and third round as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Duncan. He notes Torres is an offensive dynamo but has cardio issues and poor grappling defense. Duncan's takedowns and pressure could be key. He mentions Duncan's camp at American Top Team and his improved fight IQ. He thinks Duncan can avoid a gunfight and grind out a win.

"I'm with you Duncan plus 165 is a fine Underdog pick as far as I'm concerned"
WIN vs Yanal Ashmouz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 85 of 206 41% 87 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Yanal Ashmouz 0 35 of 98 35% 36 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Yanal Ashmouz 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Yanal Ashmouz 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
Yanal Ashmouz 0 12 of 34 35% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 85 of 206 41% 54 of 161 23 of 30 8 of 15 82 of 200 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 35 of 98 35% 15 of 68 8 of 14 12 of 16 34 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 19 of 60 31% 11 of 46 2 of 5 6 of 9 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 9 of 28 32% 4 of 20 2 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 26 of 60 43% 12 of 41 12 of 14 2 of 5 26 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 3 of 5 5 of 5 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 40 of 86 46% 31 of 74 9 of 11 0 of 1 37 of 80 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 12 of 34 35% 5 of 22 3 of 4 4 of 8 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.

half unit bet placed
"I like Chris in this matchup I think that his forward pressure his grit are gonna get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.

"I hate this pick I hate this fight but I'm gonna take another dog here and Sean abandon to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.

Ashmouz by KO, Ashmouz round 1 at +550
"him plus 120 don't mind it him like there's some like some of the props seem like extra spicy too"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.

Daniel says he is not interested at the betting window. He mentions the line: Duncan -140, Ashmouz +125.
"I'm going to lean Duncan but I I'm not interested at the betting window"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.

"for that fight I do favor Duncan for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.

fight doesn't go to decision, unders are safe
"I feel like ash moose has a little bit better durability a little bit more explosiveness and a little bit more power to eventually find that chin of Duncan and put his lights cleaned out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.

Ashmouz by knockout
"I'm willing to take an underdog flyer here so samyam for you know Ash moons"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO in first round
"I'm definitely gonna have to side with you nalashmus he's coming off a wicked KO win over Sam Patterson"
WIN vs Omar Morales
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 53 of 83 63% 62 of 92 5 of 14 35% 0 0 6:31
Omar Morales 0 47 of 80 58% 53 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Omar Morales 0 26 of 42 61% 27 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 14 of 24 58% 20 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:42
Omar Morales 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
3 Chris Duncan 0 15 of 19 78% 18 of 22 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:37
Omar Morales 0 14 of 21 66% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 53 of 83 63% 12 of 25 17 of 21 24 of 37 43 of 73 3 of 3 7 of 7
Omar Morales 47 of 80 58% 32 of 64 5 of 6 10 of 10 41 of 73 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 24 of 40 60% 6 of 13 6 of 8 12 of 19 21 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
Omar Morales 26 of 42 61% 18 of 34 2 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 37 3 of 4 1 of 1
2 Chris Duncan 14 of 24 58% 1 of 4 5 of 7 8 of 13 9 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 5
Omar Morales 7 of 17 41% 4 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 15 of 19 78% 5 of 8 6 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2
Omar Morales 14 of 21 66% 10 of 16 1 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan because of his toughness and ability to recover from being dropped. He thinks Omar Morales' chin is effectively gone after back-to-back stoppage losses. He placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at -108 and expected the line to move. He believes Duncan will take damage but get the win.

bet at -108
"I do have a half of a unit moneyline bet on him at minus 108."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan as a slight underdog, citing his youth (29 vs 37), power, and toughness despite terrible striking defense. He notes Morales has not shown finishing ability at UFC level and is getting older. He predicts a second-round knockout, but admits he could care less about this fight and finds it hard to call.

"I'm going to take the slight dog here and Chris Duncan and knock out Omar Morales"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Cody picks Morales, despite his low volume and recent KO loss. He notes Duncan is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has poor defense. He thinks Morales has power and can land a big shot, especially with his training at Kill Cliff. He says Morales needs to show aggression and pounce if he hurts Duncan. He admits it's a risky pick but sees value.

"Omar Morales for me as well for a lot of the same points like it's just I don't think Chris Duncan is UFC caliber"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Connor picks Morales but with alarm bells, noting that Morales has mentally deteriorated after three hard losses and a failed weight cut. He believes the matchup is winnable because Duncan is a brawler who will trade at Morales's preferred range. However, he worries that Morales may break if frustrated, as seen in his last fight where he brawled wildly.

"I'll still pick Morales, but I did have to open with a big like alarm bells are ringing."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Jacob picks Omar Morales, citing experience and technical striking. He thinks Chris Duncan is slower than Uros Medic and not as relentless a wrestler as Jonathan Pearce, who beat Morales. He believes Morales can touch up Duncan on the feet and that Duncan will default to wrestling, where Morales is no joke on the ground.

"I am on the Omar side I think experience plays a big factor in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Morales is a disciplined striker with good distance management and kicks, while Duncan is a brawler who leaves himself open to counters. Morales should use his technical advantage to pick Duncan apart from range, likely winning a decision. If Duncan gets reckless, Morales could even get a knockout.

"I think he's the more disciplined Striker here which is going to be the main X Factor"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Paul picks Morales, echoing that Duncan is not UFC caliber. He notes Morales used to be durable but questions his chin after the KO. He thinks Morales has a better camp and can win, but if it goes to decision, the UK crowd might favor Duncan. He says it's a pick'em price and expects fireworks.

"Omar Morales for me as well... it should be fireworks... it's probably relatively right at a at a pickum type of price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan over Omar Morales, citing Duncan's youth and toughness. He notes Duncan had a rough weight cut before his contender series loss but has since recovered. Morales is 37 and coming off a KO loss, and his competition outside the UFC is not impressive. He predicts a fun scrap with Duncan winning a 29-28 decision, having more in the tank.

Duncan wins by decision 29-28
"I'm going with Chris Duncan winning this fight by decision I reckon 29-28 in a fun scrap"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Zane also picks Morales but is cautious. He notes that Duncan is a wild brawler who gets hurt often, and Morales has the counter ability and sharpness to exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Morales's recent performances have been poor and that the fight is a referendum on where Morales is mentally.

"The matchup feels more than anything like a referendum on where Morales is at."
Mateusz Rębecki - Fight History
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Submission R3 4:42 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 35 of 94 37% 71 of 136 1 of 3 33% 4 0 7:08
Mateusz Rębecki 1 33 of 64 51% 49 of 81 1 of 5 20% 0 1 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 13 of 21 61% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:37
Mateusz Rębecki 0 8 of 11 72% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:50
2 Grant Dawson 0 20 of 69 28% 21 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Mateusz Rębecki 1 24 of 51 47% 34 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:29
3 Grant Dawson 0 2 of 4 50% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 3 0 4:17
Mateusz Rębecki 0 1 of 2 50% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 35 of 94 37% 19 of 67 14 of 23 2 of 4 24 of 81 6 of 7 5 of 6
Mateusz Rębecki 33 of 64 51% 27 of 56 1 of 2 5 of 6 27 of 50 4 of 4 2 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 13 of 21 61% 7 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12 5 of 5 4 of 4
Mateusz Rębecki 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 1
2 Grant Dawson 20 of 69 28% 10 of 48 8 of 17 2 of 4 19 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 24 of 51 47% 20 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 4 22 of 42 0 of 0 2 of 9
3 Grant Dawson 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-170), Rebecki (+142)

Round 1
American Top Team training partners collide when Dawson (23-3-1, 11-2-1 UFC) and Rebecki (20-4, 4-3 UFC) come to blows over the next 15 minutes or fewer. Teams don’t fight for their fighters, and it is only the competitors and referee Mike Beltran—and he knows you’re alone in there. Aware of one another’s game, this could go any number of ways—hopefully that way is exciting. The athletes touch ‘em up.
Rebecki ambles his way forward, ducking and dipping his way forward. Dawson introduces himself by booting the Polish fighter in the face and cutting him open on his left eyebrow, on the very first strike of the fight. Dawson goes to the body after, and he brings up a knee when he sees Rebecki is about to take him down. The scramble is wild between the two, as Rebecki is thwarted for his efforts with Dawson circling around to take his back. Rebecki grabs the fence heartily, resulting in multiple slaps from Beltran for his foul. Rebecki stands up, with Dawson wrapped around his waist from behind threatening chokes. Dawson has a body triangle locked up, and Rebecki grabs the fencing again to try to improve his position. Beltran shuts it down. Dawson wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Rebecki lowers himself down to the floor and keeps his chin tight to his chest.
Dawson uses his toes to illegally maintain his position on Rebecki’s back by grabbing them in the fencing, and Rebecki is leaned over trying to shimmy his training partner off of him. Rebecki posts on both arms, and Dawson strips them away. Rebecki hits a quick switch out of nowhere to turn about and put Dawson on his seat against the wire. Dawson wall-walks to get upright before long, and now it is Rebecki who has his arms around a waist. Rebecki raps a few right hands on the side of the dome, and he opens up with an uppercut and a right hand when they manage to break. Dawson kicks him twice in the body, and his knee partially finds its target on the chest. Rebecki boots Dawson’s leg out from beneath him, and when Dawson scrambles to his feet, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 2
The two are glad to touch gloves to get going, and Dawson chambers his knee ready for Rebecki to advance towards him. Rebecki does not sprint his way in, so Dawson kicks him in the face. Rebecki loads up a monster right hand and knocks Dawson off his feet. Dawson shells up to protect himself and stand up, and Rebecki clings to him rather than laying into him with power punches. Dawson does not mind being stuck controlled by his opponent because it means he can get his wits about him again. Dawson offers a no-look elbow from behind to no effect, and Rebecki slowly slugs him with a few more rights until they separate. Dawson gets back to kicking Rebecki in the ribs repeatedly. Dawson sells out for a spinning wheel kick, but he is out of range and off-balance as well. Rebecki lumbers his way forward, straight into a head kick. He still changes levels after taking the kick, and he bails on it and guard against a jump knee. Rebecki tags Dawson with a left hand while Dawson is looking for big knees and kicks.
Dawson kicks his foe’s feet out, and when Rebecki stands, Dawson is in his face putting hands on him. Rebecki breaks off and threatens with fireball left hands. Dawson catches him with a right. Rebecki turns his hips into a low kick, and he misses a haymaker by a matter of inches. Rebecki leaps forward to split the guard with a left, and he ducks into a kick when slinging another. Dawson shoots, and Rebecki sprawls to circle around and away. Dawson kicks, and Rebecki knocks him to his seat. Dawson climbs back up and gets clubbed on the ear with a right hand and a left. Dawson still marches forward despite getting tagged, and he clinches up his foe. Fans do not like the slowdown or the tactic. Dawson drills a knee to the chest and splits off to kick Rebecki in the face. Rebecki catches the kick and trips Dawson up to hurl him indiscriminately to the mat. Rebecki leans on top of Dawson until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
A double clap of hands gets things going in the last round. Both men wing something at one another and pull back, and the first to commit is Dawson. Dawson kicks Rebecki in the head, and Rebecki trips out his other leg. Dawson gets hold of Rebecki in a scramble and takes his back standing up. The two roll to the mat, with Dawson following the whole time and securing the back take. Dawson ties up the body triangle and starts smacking the Polish fighter with short punches on either side of the temple. Rebecki remains calm while stuck in this dominant position defending the rear-naked choke, so Dawson switches to neck crank. Rebecki’s arms go slacked, and Beltran is about to step in but Rebecki motions double thumbs-up to him. This is a strategy of his, as it turns out, and he is able to wriggle himself free. Dawson fastens another choke around the chin, and Rebecki defends well.
Dawson keeps offering setups from either side, and Rebecki hand-fights him to prevent from anything getting close. Rebecki turns over to alleviate some of the pressure. Dawson follows him every which way and beats down Rebecki with punches and elbows when a choke is not there. “KGD” rolls his man over and keeps his left arm wrapped on the chin to set a trap. Rebecki turns just the wrong way, and
Dawson fastens his arm beneath the jaw in the form of a modified rear-naked choke. Rebecki frantically fights the hands but is in big trouble. This time, Dawson is using one single arm, but it is powerful enough that the light slowly leaves Rebecki’s eyes, drifting towards unconsciousness as angels and demons flicker across his vision. Before he goes all the way out, Rebecki submits.
Dawson immediately releases his grip and dismounts his foe to drop to his knee and let out his emotions. Manly tears flow from his face, who later explains to commentator Joe Rogan that he just learned this particular version of this submission, a "genie" choke, recently.

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:42 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki because he is exciting and never stops trying to finish. He thinks the fight is either Grant Dawson gets takedowns and dominates, or Rębecki stuffs the first takedown and knocks him out. He admits he can't bring himself to root against the most exciting guy in the division.

"I am going to pick Mataus Rebecci because I just can't bring my body to root against the most exciting guy for the indivision."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki, emphasizing his fast starts, intent to finish, and never-quit attitude. He notes Dawson is a wrestler who will shoot takedowns, but Rębecki has never accepted a position and will keep moving forward. He thinks Rębecki has 15 minutes to find a finish over Dawson, who can be finished. He admits he cannot bet on Rębecki due to his recklessness.

Angelo says he doesn't know if he could bet on Rębecki because he is too reckless.
"I'm picking Mat Rebecki. If you're picking Grant Dawson, that means you're rooting for one of the most boring fighters in the history of this division."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Big Brady leans Grant Dawson, citing his excellent ground game and improved cardio at American Top Team. He notes Rębecki does not wear damage well and has questionable cardio. Brady predicts Dawson will get takedowns and ground-and-pound, leading to a late-round TKO, specifically third round. He also mentions a prop on Underdog for Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes.

Underdog: Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes
"I'm taking Grant Dawson to win this fight by late round TKO. Third round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Cody picks Dawson, citing his wrestling advantage and Rebecki's cardio issues. He thinks Dawson can take Rebecki down and control him, avoiding Rebecki's power. Cody expects Dawson to win by decision.

"I am taking Grant Dawson. And I'm not going to fault anybody taking that dog shot and Rebecki."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Grant Dawson

Connor also picks Dawson hesitantly. He emphasizes that Dawson is a mediocre athlete who stifles opponents but often fades late. Rębecki is difficult to discourage and may take over in the third round. Connor notes that most of Dawson's opponents are either finished early or more tired than him in the third, but Rębecki's toughness could change that.

Dawson opened at -120, now -165; Rębecki opened at +100, now +145.
"There's a chance for Rębecki. He is a tireless little Wolverine."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel picks Rębecki, acknowledging Dawson's top control danger but believing Rębecki's grappling with elite opponents and striking advantage will lead to an upset. He notes Rębecki's win over Mctobec Oral as proof of his grappling credentials.

"I'm actually go opposite. Listen, I know the danger if if uh Dawson gets on top, but the thing about it is Rambky proved to me he can grapple with elite guys when he beat Mctobec Oral by and I …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Grant Dawson

Predicted method: Decision. Dawson's wrestling-heavy approach (3.81 takedowns per round) should overwhelm Rębecki, who has only 50% takedown defense and has lost three of his last four. Rębecki is aggressive on the feet (5.21 SLpM) but leaves himself open to takedowns. Dawson's 1.1 submission average and top control will be key; he can grind out a decision or find a submission. Rębecki's only chance is a knockout, but Dawson has never been knocked out. Expect Dawson to control the fight and win by decision or submission.

Dawson by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Jacob picks Rębecki by first-round knockout at +500. He thinks Grant Dawson has shown he can be dropped easily and that Rębecki will be swinging for the fences. He notes that Dawson has issues in the first round and that Rębecki is a short stocky guy who is hard to take down.

first round knockout +500
"Matteas Rebecki first round knockout plus 500. Yeah, I'm going to be playing that."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Lucrative James picks Grant Dawson because he believes Dawson's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Mateusz Rębecki if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that Rębecki's only path to victory is an early knockout, as Dawson has been finished early before. He predicts Dawson will win by ground and pound, similar to Diego Ferreira's win over Rębecki.

"I'll take Grant Dawson to win this fight and I'll say he wins it via ground and pound."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

The host picks Dawson, believing his grappling and gas tank will be superior. He notes that Rębecki throws wide power shots that leave openings for Dawson to get takedowns. He expects Dawson to grind out a decision, though he acknowledges Rębecki's power and grappling background could make it close. He is not interested at -160 but thinks Dawson wins.

"I'm going to go Dawson by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Paul leans Dawson but is not fully confident. He notes Dawson's wrestling and Rebecki's vulnerability to takedowns, but also Rebecki's power and durability. Paul expects a close fight but gives Dawson the edge.

"For me, it's dog or pass and what I can expect to be a close competitive fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki as an underdog, citing his solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Dawson's chin is a concern after being KO'd by Manuel Torres and Bobby Green. He believes Rębecki's power and durability will catch Dawson, predicting a KO win.

by KO
"I'm going to go with Matteas Rebecki as a slight underdog here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Grant Dawson

Zane picks Dawson but is hesitant. He notes that Dawson will likely outwrestle Rębecki early, but Rębecki is a tough grinder who may come on late as Dawson fades. Zane compares it to the Ricky Glenn fight where Dawson lost a late lead. He thinks Dawson will win the first two rounds but could lose the third, making it a risky pick.

Dawson opened at -120, now -165; Rębecki opened at +100, now +145.
"I would love for it to be the Grant Dawson loses rather and I feel awesome about it. God knows it would be more fun, but I don't think it will be."
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ľudovít Klein 0 82 of 140 58% 90 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 72 of 159 45% 113 of 208 3 of 12 25% 0 0 5:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ľudovít Klein 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Ľudovít Klein 0 38 of 67 56% 41 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 21 of 61 34% 22 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:23
3 Ľudovít Klein 0 19 of 28 67% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 30 of 48 62% 70 of 96 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ľudovít Klein 82 of 140 58% 69 of 127 9 of 9 4 of 4 72 of 126 0 of 2 10 of 12
Mateusz Rębecki 72 of 159 45% 55 of 139 11 of 14 6 of 6 45 of 130 4 of 4 23 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ľudovít Klein 25 of 45 55% 22 of 42 2 of 2 1 of 1 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 50 42% 11 of 40 6 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ľudovít Klein 38 of 67 56% 28 of 57 7 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 65 0 of 1 1 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 61 34% 16 of 53 3 of 6 2 of 2 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ľudovít Klein 19 of 28 67% 19 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 16 0 of 1 9 of 11
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 48 62% 28 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 21 2 of 2 23 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Klein (-135), Rebecki (+114)

Round 1
As this relatively deep event keeps rolling on, a pair of talented 155ers on the edge of lightweight contention with hopes that the victor earns a number next to their name on Monday. Whether it will be “Mr. Highlight” Klein (23-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC) or Polish powerhouse Rebecki (20-3, 4-2 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. There is a fist bump before the two men throw down.
Klein sticks his man with a jab and slips back, watching out for a short right hook coming at him. Rebecki probes with a front kick as he presses forward, and the two crash into one another as Klein gets off a left hand that marks the Polish fighter up already. Klein stings Rebecki with a one-two, and Rebecki’s knees buckle but he steels himself and fires back with a vengeance. Klein retreats, evading a big few strikes as Rebecki wants blood. Klein potshots him with distant strikes, using his jab to try to keep Rebecki back. Rebecki ignores it and loads up on power left hands, and he jumps and misses with a knee with leaping forward. Both fighter swing it out, with Klein able to move and prepare for Rebecki’s advances. Rebecki rushes in for a double, and Klein belts him in the guts with a flush knee. Rebecki completely no-sells it so he can transition to a single, and he lifts Klein’s leg up but is unable to sling him down on his first efforts.
Rebecki lets go of the leg of his opponent to loop a left hand upstairs, and he attacks the other leg and still cannot take the fight down. Klein springs back, and he potshots the Polish man with his sharp jab. Rebecki pushes out with a front kick and uses it to hurl a right hand behind it, only for Klein to get to him first. Rebecki runs forward, stepping on Klein’s foot and tripping him up. Klein bounces off his seat and gets right back up, allowing Rebecki to swing way past him as Rebecki is putting everything into his punches while Klein is much more content to touch and stay evasive. Rebecki walks into a left hand, and he dips down directly into a head kick. They both trade low kicks, with Klein’s jab opening a cut on the cheek and eyebrow of the left side of Rebecki’s face. Rebecki stutter-steps his way in, takes a one-two on the chin and gives back a hard right hand offering. Klein catches Rebecki on the way in with a check right hook, and he uses his jab to end the round with Rebecki’s face a mess.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klein

Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rebecki is the aggressor again outright. Klein sticks him with a solid left hand, and leg kicks fly from both men. Klein wraps his shin up and around Rebecki’s noggin, and Rebecki takes it cleanly and engages in a brief brawl. Klein tries to keep out of the direct slugfests, instead using his range and reach to peck at his man. Klein slips something and nails Rebecki with an uppercut, and Rebecki’s eyes go wide as he is compromised but still more than willing to trade hands. Rather than go after Rebecki and try to put him away, Klein has to watch out for the looping strikes zooming his way regularly. Rebecki may be bloodied and stung, but he is still putting everything into his punches and uses them to secure a clean double-leg. Klein rebounds off the floor and walks his way up, so Rebecki mat returns him with emphasis. Rebecki drives down a few punches before Klein climbs back up, and Klein uses a sharp elbow to further blood Rebecki up on the way up.
Rebecki keeps plodding forward, throwing everything into his hooks, and he gets intercepted by the Slovakian’s sharp offense. Klein’s offense further shreds open the cut around Rebecki’s eye, and he chains a few punches into it and kicks him on the other side of the dome to ring his bell. Rebecki’s face has become festive as Halloween is coming up, a bloody mask but still plenty of life behind his eyes. Klein watches Rebecki swing for the bleachers and intercepts him or dips out of the way in time. Rebecki connects with a jump knee, and Klein shrugs off a few strikes to further connect with damaging punches. Klein kicks Rebecki square in the face, and Rebecki barely budgets. Klein styles on his man with punches and a head kick, and Rebecki is stuck with a lot of damage and five minutes left to work.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klein

Round 3
Despite taking untold damage, Rebecki is loaded for bear and comes out of his corner accordingly. Rebecki walks Klein down and even shoots for a takedown, all while Klein is marking him up with straight, long punches. Klein resets and rolls with an overhand right to swing back with a booming right of his own, and he snaps out his jab to solid effect. Rebecki pursues a single, pushing Klein to the wall until he suddenly spins the other direction and yanks Klein to the floor. “Mr. Highlight,” as if he has springs in his shorts, bounces off the mat. Rebecki drags him down again, and he starts to bash and brutalize Klein with power punches. Suddenly, Klein’s body language changes as he starts to get hurt from the heavy blows, and he is no longer as eager and able to bounce back up. Whether injured, rung up or something else, Klein suddenly is practically disabled on his back.
Rebecki, seated in half guard, rains down a seemingly unending stream of left hands. Klein rips him open with a nasty elbow off his back, and blood from the Polish athlete almost immediately covers Klein’s face. The eternally tough Rebecki steps over to the side, and he looks to crucify Klein by putting Klein’s right arm between his legs. Klein bucks, and he briefly finds himself in crucifix position taking damage. Rebecki sits up and starts punishing Klein with elbows, the two lightweights become a horror show of blood, violence and high-amplitude limbs flying. Rebecki keeps pounding on the deflated Klein, who manages to hang on to the bell somehow. Klein motions to his corner that his right ankle is trashed, which could explain why he suddenly seemed to shut off in the third round as if he was shot with a tranquilizer dart.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)

The Official Result
Ludovit Klein def. Mateusz Rebecki via Majority Decision (29-28, 28-27, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ludovit Klein despite loving Mateusz Rebecki's relentless style and heart. He notes that Rebecki bleeds excessively and cuts easily, which will be a problem against a technical striker like Klein. Angelo thinks Rebecki could win if he didn't wear damage so badly, but the blood will sway judges. He considers Rebecki a phenomenal underdog and might bet him on a round handicap if the line widens.

I'm going to wait for these prop bets, and if I get lucky, the line widens and widens and widens, and then I can bet Mateusz Rebecki at plus three and a half
"Mateusz Rebecki, unfortunately, cannot be the pick with how bloody this dude was a month ago heading into this fight. I think he's a phenomenal underdog. If you want to take the shot, I'm going to pick Ludovit Klein."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Big Brady picks Ľudovít Klein, primarily due to concerns about Mateusz Rębecki's activity and accumulated damage. He notes Rębecki has fought frequently, taking severe facial damage in recent fights, and is returning just two months after a brutal war with Chris Duncan. Brady believes Rębecki's face will swell and bleed, influencing judges, and that Klein will win a damage-based decision. He calls it a war but avoids betting on it.

Klein by decision; fight will be a war; not touching it from a betting perspective
"I'm going to go Klein. I don't love it, but I'm going to go Klein to win this fight with a damage base decision. I think this is going to be an absolute war."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Cody picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his reach advantage (6 inches) and precise striking. He notes that Rębecki has short arms (66-inch reach) and tends to overswing, leaving himself open. Klein's takedown defense is solid, and he fights well at range. Cody believes Klein will win a decision by staying on the outside and picking Rębecki apart.

"for me, it's Ludovit Klein."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Connor finds this fight hard to call but leans toward Rębecki. He notes that Klein is a dynamic but low-output range striker who struggles when pressured. Rębecki is pathologically aggressive and physically strong, which could overwhelm Klein. However, Connor acknowledges that Klein has one-shot KO power and that Rębecki may run into danger. He compares Rębecki favorably to Mason Jones, who lost to Klein, citing Rębecki's superior athleticism and durability.

Odds moving in the wrong direction; Klein is the favorite at -148, but Connor thinks Rębecki is the right pick.
"I'm kind of thinking I'll pick Rębecki here. Yeah, I think that's where I land as well, but it is tough because he will run into these sniping shots that Klein throws."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel Vreeland believes Klein's high kick and technical striking will be the difference against the durable but damage-prone Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki absorbs a lot of damage and has been finished before, and that Klein's reach and disguised high kick could catch him. He also thinks the narrative that Klein can't handle a dog fight is exaggerated, citing wins over Mason Jones and Ignacio Bahamondes.

wins by KO (head kick)
"I'm going to pick him to come out here and actually highkick knock out the ultra tough Matteo Rambky."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Lucrative James picks Ľudovít Klein to win by KO, citing his superior striking and head kicks. He believes Rębecki is coming back too soon after a war with Chris Duncan and will be compromised. He notes Rębecki's path to victory is wrestling, but doubts he can take Klein down and control him. He predicts body shots will drop Rębecki's hands, setting up a head kick knockout.

KO
"I think Ludvik Klein headkick knockout. I I really do, man. Body shots are going to add up and when the hands drop, the headkick is coming."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The host is not a big Klein fan but believes Klein's precision striking, movement, and takedown defense will allow him to batter Rębecki on the feet, similar to what Chris Duncan did. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"I think that Klein has the perfect style of precision striking, good movement, and good enough takedown defense to batter Romeki on the feet..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul leans towards Rębecki but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that Rębecki has cost him money in the past, but at plus money, he sees value. Paul acknowledges Klein's low volume and Rębecki's ability to make it a dogfight, but admits he can't fully trust Rębecki.

"I'm going to lean Rebecki, but I don't think I'm going to bet it, because this guy has cost me a whole bunch of money as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by TKO in round two. He argues that Mateusz Rębecki has taken too much damage in his last two fights and is predictable, circling into the same hooks. Klein is a sharpshooter with a reach advantage and good takedown defense. He expects Klein to sting Rębecki with something big and finish him, possibly breaking his nose or swelling his eye. He notes that Klein has had stinkers but is technical and should not get outgrappled.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to take Ludovit Klein by TKO here over Mateusz Rebequi, who's just a little bit too predictable."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane also picks Rębecki, citing Klein's lack of a consistent range striking game and his tendency to be a 'powerful potshotter' without the connective tissue. He believes Rębecki's relentless aggression and physicality will be too much for Klein, despite the risk of running into a big shot. Zane notes that Klein's finishes in the UFC have come against subpar competition.

"Rębecki is just too reliable an aggressor. So I think I'm going to take Rębecki, but it is a tough fight to call."
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 114 of 267 42% 123 of 278 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:23
Mateusz Rębecki 0 92 of 222 41% 95 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 32 of 74 43% 38 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 19 of 62 30% 19 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 38 of 88 43% 38 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mateusz Rębecki 0 25 of 62 40% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 44 of 105 41% 47 of 109 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
Mateusz Rębecki 0 48 of 98 48% 50 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 114 of 267 42% 88 of 235 7 of 13 19 of 19 104 of 256 10 of 11 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 92 of 222 41% 67 of 181 20 of 35 5 of 6 85 of 214 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 32 of 74 43% 20 of 61 1 of 2 11 of 11 30 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 19 of 62 30% 10 of 47 6 of 12 3 of 3 19 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 38 of 88 43% 32 of 78 0 of 4 6 of 6 38 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 25 of 62 40% 17 of 48 8 of 13 0 of 1 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 44 of 105 41% 36 of 96 6 of 7 2 of 2 36 of 96 8 of 9 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 48 of 98 48% 40 of 86 6 of 10 2 of 2 41 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)

Round 1
Remaining in the lightweight division for the co-main event, a pair of friends and training partners at American Top Team will throw down for Coconut Creek bragging rights. Both men happen to be a win or two from ranked opposition, so this “separating wheat from chaff” matchup has fairly high stakes relative to most other fights on the card—the preceding Rosa vs. Cornolle pairing was the lone bout on the card between two ranked combatants. Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) and Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC) will handle their business with matching 4-1 records in the UFC at stake, and referee Kerry Hatley will serve as the third man in the Octagon. The teammates touch gloves before determining how exactly how much pain they wish to inflict on one another.
Duncan leads off immediately with a head kick, and Rebecki comes right after him swinging. Rebecki loads up on his left hand, and Duncan knocks him back with his own right hook. The two are talking to one another as they load up with massive power—at this point, it appears they are going brawl it out. Rebecki knocks Duncan down to the ground with his swinging shots, and Duncan is able to get back to his feet. As they trade again, a giant mouse develops on the top right corner of Rebecki’s head. Rebecki takes Duncan down briefly, and Duncan threatens off his back with an elbow and then tries to get hold of a submission. Rebecki backs out and stands up, with Duncan following suit. Rebecki is quick get put his foot on the gas once more, and Duncan fires back with impunity and opens a cut on Rebecki’s forehead above his right eyebrow. Duncan sits down on an elbow that Rebecki eats like a steak, and Rebecki continues to walk through damaging blows.
Duncan stays on his back foot attacking with body kicks, and Rebecki gets close to him and drives home three quick punches. Duncan strikes with another elbow and whiffs on a head kick, and he recovers after getting countered. Duncan goes for a body kick, and Rebecki counters cleanly with a right hook. Duncan drives a knee to the body and falls to his back, and Rebecki tackles him down and looks to get to the guard. Duncan turns over while under fire to get to his feet, and Rebecki is clinging to him from behind. Rebecki leans on his training partner, and Duncan grabs the fence to get a better position. Duncan breaks out of the grip around his waist, and they proceed to trade long straight punches. Duncan steps in with a knee and is wobbled by an overhand right. Rebecki swings with everything he has, a left hand jacking Duncan in the jaw but not hurting him. Duncan scores a few elbows, and the tense, vicious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Rebecki comes right out of his corner ready to attack, and he does just that by nailing Duncan with a crisp one-two. Duncan counters with a right hand, and he is reached by a left hook upstairs. Duncan delivers a body kick as Rebecki comes at him, and he does this again as Rebecki is trying to swing for the bleachers. Duncan misses on a kick, and Rebecki is bleeding again and strikes the body to open up head shots. Rebecki lobs a big left and a right that land flush on the sides of his foe’s head, and Duncan appears to get his foe’s attention with a sharp right hand. The Scotsman follows with a head kick that Rebecki somehow absorbs, barely still with it. Rebecki blinks it out and shoots for a double, and he takes a knee on the jaw on the way in. Duncan worms his way out the position to work back upright, and he elbows his teammate in the cut that has developed swelling around the gaping wound.
Rebecki does not care about the damage, blood in his eyes and a golf ball on his forehead, as he loops huge punches at Duncan again and again. Rebecki’s huge haymakers have swelled up Duncan’s eyes, and both men are going to need some recovery time when this is all said and done. Duncan rips a kick to the body and then stabs him in the torso with his toes. Rebecki lowers his guard to defend his guts, compromised from the strike, so Duncan attacks him with an elbow up top. Duncan goes to the body with kicks, and even when blocked, Rebecki takes them hard on the arms. Rebecki loads up on three punches to the dome, and he chases after Duncan with left hands as Duncan’s right eye balloons. Duncan kicks the front leg and jabs the gaping wound on his foe’s head, while Rebecki chases after him. Duncan knees him in the belly, and they trade hands right to the bell. Rebecki’s right eye is nearly swollen shut, and this one might not make it to the third round because of how trashed his face is.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
Rebecki is cleared between rounds, and he comes out of his corner like a berserker. Swinging his way forward to shoot for takedown, he gets Duncan down and pops back up without concern. Rebecki lets him up so he can punch him in the face, and they proceed to trade hilariously heavy leather. Duncan intercepts his hard-swinging foe with faster strikes, backing off the Polish brawler and forcing a shot out of him. Duncan stops it and blocks the oncoming fire, but Rebecki still gets through. Duncan lands a body kick, and Rebecki still manages to shoot in on his hips. Duncan hits the deck and threatens with an anaconda choke, rolling through it to lock it down, but Rebecki rolls through it further to escape. They both get up, and Duncan aims a head kick at Rebecki’s leaking visage. Rebecki looks for takedowns as he appears to be fading, while Duncan beats on him with elbows. Rebecki rips open a cut on Duncan’s left eye, and Duncan completely ignores it as he bashes Rebecki in the swollen eye. Just bleed indeed.
Rebecki has his right eye closed, and Duncan closes in to tie him up to get a few seconds to catch his wind before they re-engage. Duncan stabs the body with his foot, and Rebecki is right in his face slugging him. Rebecki loops a left hand and zips an uppercut through the guard. Both men are bloodied and battered, but they continue to bang. Duncan wobbles back, starting to feel it himself, and Rebecki somehow is willing himself into a second or third wind. Duncan pushes “Chinczyk” to the fence, and Rebecki explodes out and hurls punches in bunches. Duncan boots him in the head, and Rebecki is impossibly tough as he tanks it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Duncan lines up a knee to the forehead, and Rebecki unloads several uppercuts on the inside. They split up, and smash one another in the face right until time expires. Blood pours out of various wounds on both men, and Rebecki collapses to his knees while Duncan raises his arms in the air. What a titanic tussle, somehow outdoing the match before it and putting itself in contention for “Fight of the Year.” TLDR? Go back and watch this somehow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Duncan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Mateusz Rebecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.

"I think I'm gonna take Duncan here. I just like the potential for him as a finisher and as a power striker in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Submission round 2
"Chris Duncan submission round two after a war. He hurts Rebecki, jumps on the gilly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.

"I'll just take Rubisky. Yeah, it's been a minute since I've seen somebody like this does stand out to me on Chris Duncan's records that these are some pretty measured long range fighters that he has been taking on."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 1 71 of 146 48% 93 of 174 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:24
Myktybek Orolbai 0 61 of 135 45% 85 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 1 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Myktybek Orolbai 0 25 of 57 43% 28 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:44
3 Mateusz Rębecki 1 21 of 34 61% 42 of 61 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:09
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 71 of 146 48% 52 of 123 10 of 11 9 of 12 54 of 126 5 of 6 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 61 of 135 45% 46 of 114 6 of 11 9 of 10 60 of 133 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 27 of 57 47% 15 of 43 7 of 7 5 of 7 26 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 2 of 4 7 of 8 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 25 of 57 43% 19 of 50 4 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cerqueira (-112), Aslan (-108)

Round 1
Another victim of a weigh-in day switcheroo, the two lightweights in Rebecki (19-2, 3-1 UFC) and Orolbai (13-1-1, 2-0 UFC) now find themselves competing at a 160-pound catchweight. It is currently unclear which man struggled to make weight properly—or it could be both—as they comfortably reached that mark together. Referee Vitor Ribeiro draws the charge for this matchup outside of standard weight divisions, and he checks the fight in as the two men tap their gloves together. Rebecki strides forward ready to throw hands, and he punches his way in and clashes his chest against his opponent’s. Orolbai pushes him back, and gets tagged by a left hand. The sheer momentum of the two make them crash together more than once, and Rebecki is throwing everything he has at his opponent. Rebecki pitches out a left hand that reddens the nose of his adversary, and leg kicks are traded. Orolbai sneaks in a short right, and Rebecki slides to the side and batters his opponent on both sides of the head with power punches. Orolbai pushes out a right hand, and they bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Rebecki punches his way into a clinch, and he escapes before Orolbai can take advantage of it. Rebecki chops at the front leg and spins around, and he loads up on heavy blows that do not make Orolbai budge one inch. Orolbai tosses out a head kick after a one-two, and Rebecki counters with a clubbing left hand. Rebecki’s face begins to turn red from a few absorbed blows back his direction, and he pays it no mind as he loads up on his big left. Orolbai sticks his opponent with a right and gets blasted with a scooping left hand, and it causes immediate damage that swells up his right eye. Orolbai’s eye balloons from the power punches, and Rebecki targets it like a bullseye. Rebecki chops down the front leg, and Orolbai walks him down and just misses with a head kick. A left hand from the Polish fighter opens up the nose, and he gets knocked down from a counter right that might have been from him being off-balance. The horn sounds as Rebecki scrambles back upright to attack again.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Ribeiro calls in the physician to example Orolbai’s swollen right eye, which has almost completely closed between rounds. Orolbai passes the vision test and is cleared to continue for now. He starts off the round looking for a takedown, hoping to stifle the momentum of Rebecki. The Polish fighter loads up so hard with his left hand that he dislodges his own mouthpiece, and resets it and eats a huge right hand on the jaw. Orolbai connects with a head kick and shoots for a takedown, and the tree stump that is Rebecki stops it in its tracks. Orolbai splits the guard with an uppercut, and he loads up on massive right hands in hopes of hurting Rebecki or opening something up. This allows Rebecki to wrap his hands around the waist and push him against the fence. Orolbai drops down to the floor for a takedown, and although he trips Rebecki up, he cannot ground Rebecki. “Chinczyk” checks Orolbai’s chin with a left hand, and Orolbai has to take a moment to recover from it and absorbs a thunderous left on the busted eye. The beacon of a swollen eye is the perfect place for Rebecki to punch, and Rebecki punches it again and again. Rebecki uses a leg kick to open up a right hook, and he gets caught by a right hand from his opponent but does not budge. Instead, Rebecki surges forward with a wild left hand, and he dips away from an uppercut. Rebecki hammers the front leg with a kick and goes up top with a left, and Orolbai checks a second kick and shoots in for a double. Rebecki uses the fence at his back to stay upright, but a subsequent effort from Orolbai drags him to the ground. Before they hit the canvas, Orolbai appears to crash his head into his opponent’s and a cut on Rebecki’s eye splits open and starts pouring blood. Rebecki wipes at it but keeps swinging with full power, and Orolbai measures him with uppercuts and somehow counters him. Orolbai rolls with the punches and snaps the head to the side with an elbow, and he gets popped with two right hooks and completely shrugs them off. Orolbai connects with a left, absorbs a one-two, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai

Round 3
With damage on both right eyes, doctors clear them without even needing to check on the fighters’ conditions. Orolbai opens up in the final round with an elbow, aimed at the cut. Rebecki unloads a left hand on the swollen eye socket, and it is miraculous that Orolbai can see out if it. Rebecki blasts his man in the face with a right hand as Orolbai is attacking with an elbow, and a bomb of a second right hand sends Orolbai crashing to the mat. Rebecki pours it on with an onslaught of right hands, smashing Orolbai’s nose to pieces and causing blood to spray across the Octagon. Ribeiro watches on closely but does not intervene, and Rebecki beats Orolbai like a rented mule. Rebecki wrenches Orolbai to the floor, hammering the fighter from Kyrgyzstan but not eliciting referee intervention. Orolbai muscles his way to a knee and his feet, and he continues to take destructive right hands and pursues a single. Rebecki remains on his feet despite Orolbai’s attempts, and he lowers himself to a knee and starts absorbing rights of his own. Rebecki turns the tables on his opponent and dumps him to his backside, climbing into top position while blood covers both men. It comes from both fighters, who leak and cover the mat as well. Through sheer force of will, Orolbai turns his opponent around and pounds on him with left hands and elbows to the body. Orolbai considers an arm-triangle choke but slips off the side due to the massive blood flow. Orolbai sits in half guard as Rebecki clings to his wrist, and Rebecki bursts back to his feet and is pushed to the wall. Orolbai is pushed away, and he drives a one-two on the chin. Rebecki tanks it and eats another power punch, and Orolbai rocks him with a huge right hook. Rebecki is totally spent, and he leans his back to the wall and survives to the bell. What a fantastic bloodbath, one instantly worthy of “Fight of the Night” and plenty of attention from physicians in the next few minutes. Just bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Myktybek Orolbai via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai in a close fight. He notes Orolbai has better cardio, can close the gap and get takedowns, and has a good chin. He thinks Rębecki's only hope is a knockout, but Orolbai is durable. He acknowledges Rębecki is good and has been reliable in the past, but leans toward Orolbai's pressure and grappling.

"motto's the pick again super close fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Orolbai, expecting a chaotic scramble-fest. He notes that Rębecki slows down as fights go on, as seen against Fiori and Carlos Diego Ferreira. He believes Orolbai's pace will be too much for Rębecki and that Orolbai will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a decision win, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going to take my titty back here to win this fight and I think he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Cody picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his massive size and reach advantage over Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight and has no plan B when his wrestling fails. Orolbai's size, power, and ability to lean on opponents will wear down Rębecki. Cody believes Orolbai will win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up for the much larger man or lebi"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that he is more determined and a better round winner. He notes that Rębecki is a better puncher but more amorphous in his process, while Orolbai demands control and will not let Rębecki off the hook. Connor sees Rębecki winning the first round but losing the last two due to Orolbai's pressure.

"Yeah, that's the thing. I think I could see Robesky having a lot of success early. ... But if he can't ever stop from having to fight it off, yeah, then I, yeah, I think he's going to get tired …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, noting that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight after spamming overhands. He argues that Rębecki's wrestling won't work against Orolbai, who is a better wrestler and scrambler. Vreeland expects Orolbai to wear Rębecki down and finish him.

"M Toc oral by I mean like oralay is the clear pick here I think he wears him down and gets him out of there too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki to win, but primarily because he sees value on the underdog at the current line. He believes the fight is closer than the odds suggest and that Rębecki's experience and pace could be decisive. Vreeland notes that Orolbai has shown vulnerability when things go south, as seen in the Brener fight.

"I'm going to go with him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, picking Orolbai. He mentions that Orolbai has been impressive since joining the UFC and that he took him in his debut on short notice. Fox trusts Orolbai's skills and expects him to win.

"I'm glad I'm picking him then um if he's the clear pick yeah ori's been very good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has the cardio and scrambling advantage, allowing him to avoid early danger and grind out a win. He could get a third-round finish or win on the scorecards. This is a grapple-heavy matchup.

Orolbai wins by third-round finish or decision
"I do believe orai has the cardio and scrambling Advantage which should allow him to stay out of too much danger early on in this matchup and then grind this fed out either winning a third round finish or winning …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, agreeing that Rębecki was exposed in his last fight and that Orolbai's size and strength will be too much. He notes that Orolbai is a mountain of a man at 155 and that Rębecki's cardio issues will be exploited. Paul is confident Orolbai will win.

"orabi is just a mountain of a man at this Division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his relentless pace and ability to dig deep. He notes that Orolbai pushed through adversity against Uros Medic and has shown good cardio. He believes Rębecki is good but may fade in the later rounds, while Orolbai's pressure and takedown attempts will break him. The Guru also mentions the humid Abu Dhabi environment favoring the tougher fighter.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki I think he can push more when the going gets tough."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picked Orolbai but was worried he would hit a wall due to not being a physical force and having poor striking. He noted that Orolbai gets a lot done on heart and determination, but Rębecki crushed him in round one. Zane credited Orolbai for coming back and winning the second round, but ultimately scored the third for Rębecki because Orolbai was nearly dead earlier in the round. He called it a well-earned win for Rębecki.

"i picked or i'll be but i was really worried going in that he was going to hit a wall"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai because he is pot-committed to pressing forward and forcing his wrestling, and he is incredibly focused on making his fight happen. Even if Rębecki has early success, Orolbai's relentless pressure will gas him out and take over in later rounds. Zane notes that Orolbai is a round winner who stays calm and confident.

"I'm inclined to pick him just because I think, I just think he's incredibly focused on making his fight happen. And I think if he gets that fight, even if he's not all that overwhelming at first, it is going …"
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 123 of 241 51% 151 of 272 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:12
Mateusz Rębecki 1 52 of 137 37% 60 of 146 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 21 of 65 32% 28 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 1 30 of 60 50% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 40 of 79 50% 49 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Mateusz Rębecki 0 16 of 48 33% 19 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 0:55
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 97 63% 74 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Mateusz Rębecki 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 123 of 241 51% 94 of 189 28 of 51 1 of 1 94 of 203 0 of 1 29 of 37
Mateusz Rębecki 52 of 137 37% 34 of 109 11 of 21 7 of 7 46 of 129 0 of 0 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 21 of 65 32% 15 of 51 6 of 14 0 of 0 21 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 60 50% 21 of 51 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 52 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 40 of 79 50% 31 of 61 8 of 17 1 of 1 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 2
Mateusz Rębecki 16 of 48 33% 12 of 39 1 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 97 63% 48 of 77 14 of 20 0 of 0 35 of 62 0 of 0 27 of 35
Mateusz Rębecki 6 of 29 20% 1 of 19 3 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-310), Ferreira (+250)

Round 1
Momentum is a powerful tool. Once on a solid six-fight win streak, Ferreira (18-5, 9-5 UFC) has since dropped three of four and now stares down his 40th birthday at the beginning of next year. Eight years younger and with his own 16-fight victorious stretch in tow, Rebecki (19-1, 3-0 UFC) has it going for him. Whether the torch is passed or the older man can get it done, referee Gary Copeland will keep tabs on the lightweight contest. The sportsmen gladly bump their fists together in eager anticipation of inflicting bodily harm on one another. Rebecki surges forward immediately, throwing caution to the wind swinging fists. Ferreira stays composed and prods out with front kicks, and he dips away from the power shots that fly past him. Rebecki continues attacking relentlessly, and he knocks Ferreira to his seat momentarily courtesy of fierce right hand. The Brazilian jumps right back up, and he keeps Rebecki honest with front kicks and a solid body kick. Ferreira lands with a left and a right, and a head kick gets Rebecki’s attention. He throws another high kick, and Rebecki crowds him more. Ferreira sneaks in a left hand as Rebecki walks forward with impunity, only to be met with three flush shots on the jaw. Rebecki strings three punches together, and Ferreira attacks the body with his foot. Ferreira comes up short on a head kick, and Rebecki buzzes his hair with an overhand right. The two take turns blasting one another, and Rebecki gets the better of an exchange with a solid right hand that appears to hurt the Brazilian. Ferreira fires back with bad intentions, and his head kick comes increasingly close to landing cleanly. Rebecki jabs his way into offense, and Ferreira answers them with a heavy body kick that makes Rebecki shake his head. Rebecki leans forward and when he attacks, his head smacks into Ferreira’s. Ferreira wipes his head, and Copeland notes the head clash. Rebecki unloads a left hand that knocks Ferreira clean off his feet, and he dives down into the guard in hopes of finishing the job. Rebecki gets slowed down by the active guard of his opponent, and he cannot pass guard or land much of note while Ferreira clears his head. The round ends with Rebecki on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together to open the round, and Rebecki says hello with a body kick and a powerful left hand. Ferreira drops to the mat, and he bounces back up and stings Rebecki with a left hook of his own. The Polish fighter has a foot bounce off the cup when kicking, and he apologizes as Ferreira signals he is ok. Rebecki ducks a right hand and shoots with a double, driving through the hips and putting Ferreira on his back. Ferreira hits the mat and threatens with a triangle choke, and his legs allow him to sweep and throw Rebecki off of him. Rebecki loads up on a big left hand that misses the mark, and Ferreira follows him with three punches up top while Rebecki’s eyes are swelling up fast. Ferreira jabs and absorbs a left hand on the nose that makes him tweak it to check if it is damaged. Rebecki lurches forward with a series of rangy punches, and he gets backed off as a high kick whizzes past his head. Rebecki bulldozes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he manages to put the Brazilian on his seat for a moment. Ferreira climbs back up and works his jab, and he slips the most dangerous blows coming at him so that he can counter with three of his own. Ferreira flicks out jabs and a head kick, and he backs the Polish fighter off with body shots chained into punches in the head. The jab has split open the side of Rebecki’s eye, and Ferreira releases a number of punches to the swelling and bloody face. Copeland calls time and brings in the doctor, and Rebecki is cleared quickly and gets back to it. Ferreira drills his man in the head with a combination of punches ending with a head kick, and Rebecki catches it and tackles Ferriera to the floor. Ferreira scrambles to work his way up, and he turns the tables and drags Rebecki down from behind. The Brazilian climbs into full mount and he sits down on an arm-triangle choke, but time expires before he can get the tap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 3
The lightweights touch ‘em up to begin, and Ferreira leads the dance with a few punches up top and a front kick. Rebecki swings back, and Ferreira is the fresher and more accurate man of the two as he lands cleaner. Ferreira looks for his jab and kicks the body, and he checks Rebecki’s chin with a one-two. Ferreira powers ahead with another short combo, and he lines up several head kicks that get blocked but have an impact. Rebecki loads up on a left hand, and Ferreira stands firm and lets him have it with a swarm of punches that stagger him. Rebecki takes a breath and kicks the lead leg, and he gets driven back with a straight right hand. Ferreira times Rebecki ducking down for a level change with an uppercut, and he chews up the midsection with power shots. Ferreira walks through power punches from the Polish fighter, and he gets taken down and turns the corner to stand back up. Ferreira goes after Rebecki’s leg to sweep him and turn him over, and he finds his way on top and slides straight into mount. Ferreira bombards Rebecki with punches and elbows, and Rebecki twists and turns in any effort to escape. Ferreira sits on him awkwardly and works Rebecki over with his fists, until Rebecki muscles his way to his knees. Ferreira drags his man down and moves back to mount, and he gets going with a number of elbows as Copeland is watching closely. Copeland asks for Rebecki to fight back, and Rebecki sits up to protect himself from further damage. Rebecki somehow slides out the back door, and both men get back to their feet with a little under a minute to go. Ferreira jabs the body with a kick, and he continues to aim strikes to the midsection. Ferreira knocks Rebecki to the wall with a one-two, and he shoots for an easy takedown and throws Rebecki to the mat so he can hop into mount.
Ferreira postures up and drills Rebecki with punches and hammerfists. Ferreira keeps striking, sensing the finish might be right around the corner, and Copeland waves the fight off to save Rebecki from any further harm.
The Polish fighter’s long win streak is now a thing of the past, and the shellacking from “CDF” has made him nearly unrecognizable. This is a mighty comeback performance for the 39-year-old, who survived a tough first round and put away a man that came into this bout the winner of his last 16.

The Official Result
Diego Ferreira def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:51 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.

"I got to go matal rebecky all day long all day long very confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.

"give me recki to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.

"rebecky minus 400 as it continues to grow you're going to run into some banana peel pricing but yeah no he's the pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.

"This is going to be an honorable passing of the torch."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.

"I'm going to go roesy and roesy by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.

"I expect rebecky to win on Saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.

"I'm going with my man matus rebecky... he wins this one."
Submission (armbar) R1 3:08 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts (158: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-700), Roberts (+500)

Round 1
Originally expecting he would come to blows with Tajikistan’s Nurullo Aliev, on ultra-late notice, Rebecki (18-1, 2-0 UFC) will instead welcome Roberts (12-3, 1 NC; 4-3, 1 NC UFC) back to the Octagon. The eight-fight vet left the organization in 2021 after getting posterized by Ignacio Bahamondes, and two wins on the regional circuit plus an appearance on the 31st season of “The Ultimate Fighter” led to “The Predator”—no not that one—getting a return ticket to the UFC. Unfortunately for Roberts, his second chance at a first impression will start off rough, as he could not reach the lightweight limit, coming in two pounds heavy and losing a hefty chunk of his purse. The two will proceed with referee Mike Beltran as their third, and the combatants happily exchange a fist bump. Roberts measures a right hand, and he just misses Rebecki. Rebecki rips a few kicks down low, and he comes up short with big swinging fists. Roberts backs off, looking for a knee to counter, and Rebecki follows him and secures a double-leg takedown to put Roberts on the mat. Rebecki slashes down with an elbow on the forehead, and he maintains position while landing some sporadic ground-and-pound. Rebecki grinds down with his elbow, frustrating the taller fighter, until Roberts kicks his feet in pursuit of a sweep. This backfires for him, as Rebecki takes side control in a hurry. Roberts is able to power his way back up through sheer muscle, and Rebecki drags him down to his face from behind. As Roberts recovers, Rebecki slithers around to take the back and get both hooks in. Rebecki smacks Roberts on the sides of his head, softening his man up until Roberts times an explosion to turn around and stand up.
Before he gets all the way up, Rebecki snares him in an armbar, and “The Predator” has just become the prey. Roberts tries to roll through to defend against the submission, but this places him in even greater danger. Rebecki continues to torque the arm with all his might, and Roberts screams out before his arm breaks and his tendons snap.
Beltran is immediately on the action to make sure nothing goes awry, but Rebecki releases the grip as soon as he hears the verbal submission. The Polish fighter is in all smiles when he stands back up, and he calls for the UFC to hold an event in Poland soon.

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Roosevelt Roberts R1 3:08 via Submission (Armbar)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, calling him a 'finished product' with excellent grappling and power. He thinks Roberts is outclassed everywhere and that Rębecki will maul him. He notes the line is high but believes Rębecki is the goods.

"rebecky minus 650 is insane but guy's the goods he's he's going to be a problem"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, comparing him to grinders like Nick Lentz and Jon Fitch. He notes Rębecki's suffocating pressure and technique, and that Roberts is a short-notice replacement with a puncher's chance only. He expects Rębecki to dominate wherever the fight goes.

"rebecky is going to be a problem for most of these guys until he starts cracking into the top 15"
TKO (punch) R2 2:36 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 2 54 of 95 56% 64 of 110 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:57
Loik Radzhabov 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 28 of 54 51% 35 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:53
Loik Radzhabov 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Rębecki 2 26 of 41 63% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Loik Radzhabov 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 54 of 95 56% 24 of 58 12 of 17 18 of 20 54 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 19 of 54 35% 16 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 28 of 54 51% 13 of 33 8 of 13 7 of 8 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 10 of 30 33% 7 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 26 of 41 63% 11 of 25 4 of 4 11 of 12 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Loik Radzhabov (157.25: Missed Weight) vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-155), Radzhabov (+135)

Round 1
A classic battle of Poland vs. Tajikistan is about to play out in a match that was initially scheduled at lightweight. Both looking to make their sophomore appearance a positive one, “Chinczyk” Rebecki (17-1, 1-0 UFC) will battle it out with the heavy PFL export Radzhabov (17-4-1, 1-0 UFC). The third man in the Octagon for this de facto 158-pound catchweight contest will be referee James Larry Folsom, and the fighters still touch gloves despite the weight discrepancy. Rebecki moves into striking range, backing his foe off and not worried about a big punch aimed at his direction. Rebecki loads up on a body kick, and he walks into a looping right hand. Rebecki rushes at his man with a pair of punches, and Radzhabov bounces off the fence and absorbs a pair of big leg kicks. Radzhabov gets a head of steam and aims a right hand and a body kick back. Rebecki continues to hammer the lead wheel, and he punches Radzhabov square in the face as Radzhabov tries to duck. Rebecki scoots back from a right hand and hammers the inside calf with a kick. Radzhabov swings his way into a body lock takedown attempt, and Rebecki breaks out of the clinch and kicks the ribcage. Radzhabov races forward to sling punches, and Rebecki takes them and goes back to crowding Radzhabov against the wall. Rebecki pins Radzhabov back and pops him with a left hook and a few jabs, and he suddenly changes levels to snatch up a double. Radzhabov falls to his back and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and Rebecki pops his head out as he steps into an advantageous position with Radzhabov’s legs trapped between his own. Rebecki slugs Radzhabov in the chops with a right hand in his partial mount position, as he could shimmy up to sit on Radzhabov’s hips. Instead, Rebecki hops out of it to the side, so he can elbow Radzhabov on the dome. The fighter from Tajikistan scrambles to his knees and forces his way back to his feet, and he launches a big leg kick. Rebecki lunges forward with a fiery right hand, and he blasts Radzhabov with a leg kick that separates Radzhabov from his balance. Rebecki jumps on top of a fallen Radzhabov and locks up a crucifix position in a hurry with 20 seconds to go. Rebecki sets up a straight armlock from his angle, and he lets it go to hold Radzhabov down until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, and Radzhabov starts by slugging it out. Rebecki nails him with a kick, and Radzhabov is barely able to stand up. Radzhabov wobbles back to the fence to let it help keep him upright, and Rebecki attacks it relentlessly. Rebecki measures his punches as Radzhabov is up against the wall, and he does not get reckless as Radzhabov is throwing big counters back his way. Radzhabov scores a leg hand, an elbow and another few punches. Rebecki measures his man and drives home several more low kicks to both legs, and Radzhabov cannot stand up and drops to his knees. Through sheer force of will, Radzhabov stands back up, and he entices Rebecki into a mad brawl. Rebecki obliges and busts Radzhabov in the chops, and he swings low kicks that make Radzhabov react physically every time. Even when Radzhabov lifts his leg up, the shin slams into it and makes him wince.
Radzhabov takes a hard look at the clock, which says 2:45 left in the round, and Rebecki is stalking him with accurate, dangerous blows. Rebecki decks Radzhabov with a massive left hand, and Radzhabov crashes to the ground.
Folsom immediately leaps in between them to call a halt to the contest, giving fans their first finish of the night in what some might consider a mercy stoppage. Rebecki limps away, having suffered some serious damage to his foot from the hellacious kicks, and he successfully pushes his impressive win streak to 15 straight.

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Loik Radzhabov R2 2:36 via TKO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo gives a slight lean to Mateusz Rębecki, thinking his wrestling and striking are a little better. He expects a banger and says the odds are perfect with Rębecki as a slight favorite. He has no bet on this fight and plans to just watch.

"I do think these odds are perfect with Rebecca as just the slight favorite here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Big Brady picks the underdog Loik Radzhabov, citing his wrestling ability and tougher competition. He notes that Rębecki's win over Nick Fiore aged poorly after Chase Hooper beat him. He has concerns about Radzhabov's cardio but thinks he can implement takedowns early. He predicts a close, competitive split decision.

"I'm gonna take the dog here and look rajabov but this is gonna be a close fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, noting his better cardio and wrestling. He thinks Radzhabov will gas and Rębecki can take over. He considers live betting if Radzhabov wins the first round.

Live betting considered.
"I think Rebecca's got that cardio Advantage I think he's in better shape."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Connor initially leaned toward Radzhabov because he sees more depth in his takedown game, but after discussion he switches to Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. Connor thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. He also points out that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming.

"I'm leaning for the pole. I'm leaning for Ribesky."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Levi picks Mateusz Rębecki, arguing that the market overreacted to his decision win over Fiore. He thinks Rębecki dominated that fight and gassed from beating his opponent, not from poor cardio. He sees Rębecki as more physical and believes he will overwhelm Radzhabov. He thinks there is value at -145 and plans to bet.

Plans to bet Rębecki at -145 or -150.
"I'm on rambesky here and I will move in at some point soon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The host picks Mateusz Rębecki to win by decision. He believes Rębecki's size and strength will be too much for Radzhabov to get his takedowns, and that Rębecki will get the better positions on top and land more significant damage. He notes both fighters have cardio issues but expects Rębecki to edge out a grappling-heavy decision.

"give me the Polish fighter here to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, citing his wrestling advantage and cardio. He notes Radzhabov's tendency to gas and thinks Rębecki can out-grapple him. He expects a decision win.

"I'll side with the with with machus Rebecca to be able to get those positions."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki, noting that Loik Radzhabov struggled against Esteban Ribovics, who stuffed takedowns and showed more potential. He believes Rębecki is a shorter, stockier, great grappler who can stuff takedowns and be a wrecking machine. He predicts Rębecki will get a KO at the end of round one or two after pressuring Radzhabov backwards.

Predicts KO in round 1 or 2.
"I'm gonna go with matteus rebecci... I can actually see him getting a KO at the end of round one or the end of round two"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane initially leaned toward Rębecki because he thinks Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. After discussion, he agrees with Connor that Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. Zane also notes that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming. He thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's creativity in striking makes the difference.

"I think they're going to end up stuck on their feet against each other. And Roger Bob can, he can land hard. And he's not, you know, he's not without power. But if he has to stay standing, he's just …"
WIN vs Nick Fiore
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 0 89 of 171 52% 130 of 228 3 of 4 75% 0 0 8:27
Nick Fiore 0 34 of 93 36% 52 of 113 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 54 of 101 53% 59 of 107 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
Nick Fiore 0 20 of 53 37% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 49 46% 42 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
Nick Fiore 0 11 of 31 35% 19 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
3 Mateusz Rębecki 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Nick Fiore 0 3 of 9 33% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 89 of 171 52% 53 of 125 27 of 37 9 of 9 63 of 138 4 of 10 22 of 23
Nick Fiore 34 of 93 36% 25 of 76 7 of 13 2 of 4 28 of 83 5 of 9 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 54 of 101 53% 32 of 73 17 of 23 5 of 5 43 of 85 2 of 6 9 of 10
Nick Fiore 20 of 53 37% 14 of 42 5 of 8 1 of 3 17 of 47 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 49 46% 12 of 35 8 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 42 0 of 1 6 of 6
Nick Fiore 11 of 31 35% 8 of 26 2 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Rębecki 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 11 2 of 3 7 of 7
Nick Fiore 3 of 9 33% 3 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nick Fiore vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-700), Fiore (+510)

Round 1
It is extremely rare to have such lopsided betting odds when two UFC newcomers are pitted against one another, but here we are. Poland’s Rebecki (16-1, 0-0 UFC) is anywhere from the low -700 range to above -800 in his first UFC appearance, as he will be squaring off against late replacement and substantial +570ish underdog Fiore (6-0, 0-0 UFC). Fiore steps in for the injured Omar Morales, and betting confidence is low in him – likely due in part to a strength of schedule that includes not one but two wins over the notorious Jay Ellis. It’s the fight game, anything can happen and these two lightweights know it. Overseen by referee Kerry Hatley, the two men looking to make a violent statement bump fists to seal the cage around them. Rebecki instantly releases a body kick, and he comes out aggressive to kick low and follow it with a right hand. When Fiore tries to crowd him, Rebecki fires off a kick to the chest, and Fiore responds with a right hand. Rebecki clubs him with a pair of fastballs, and Fiore bounces off the cage wall to reset. The Polish fighter chops down the lead calf as he pushes forward, and he wings three straight left hands to the head and body. Rebecki rips the body with a kick, and a one-two plants right on the New Hampshire native’s chin. Fiore connects with a right hand to open up some swelling on Rebecki’s left eye, but he ignores it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Rebecki punishes his foe with a long string of punches, and he keeps one-twos landing one after the other. Fiore’s left eye is marked up as well, and he counters his charging opponent with an elbow. Rebecki digs punches to the body, and Fiore fires back with a vengeance but gets his legs kicked hard. Rebecki slams a left hand to the body, and Fiore spins all the way around and retreats. “Chinczyk” gives chase with a flying knee, and he walks through strikes from Fiore to load up on his own power blows. Fiore shakes off two punches to the side of the head, and Rebecki unloads with rights and lefts to the ribcage. Fiore wears it all well without his knees buckling, and Rebecki suddenly blitzes him to tackle him over with a double-leg takedown. Fiore throws his legs up quickly for a possible triangle setup, or something to slow the wild Rebecki down. Fiore ties his man up in the guard, and Rebecki pushes off and drives down elbows with pure power. The Polish fighter tears open a serious cut above the left eyebrow of his opponent with his elbows, and Fiore wraps Rebecki up to make it to the bell, likely blowing up any betting line of the match ending in Round 1 – barring doctor intervention regarding that cut.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The two lightweights reach Round 2, and Rebecki is no less aggressive to start things off. Rebecki pounds the body with a kick, and he swings and misses with a wide uppercut. Fiore stands back and trades blows with his reckless adversary, but the body work from Rebecki is not matched. Fiore catches a charging Rebecki with a vertical elbow, and this makes Rebecki changes levels for a takedown. The attempt fails, and Rebecki appears to be visibly slowing as Fiore backpedals. Fiore tags his man with a one-two, and he grabs hold of a double and nearly takes Rebecki for a ride. Fiore drags his opponent to the mat, and he steps into full mount briefly while Rebecki scrambles. The two slide around and work their way back to their feet before anyone claims position, and Rebecki slams his fists in Fiore’s face. Fiore takes them flush and gets his lead leg kicked out, and this draws a grimace. Rebecki bull-rushes forward to secure a double and plant Fiore on his back, and he takes a deep breath when landing. Not wanting the referee to get involved, Rebecki stays busy enough with ground-and-pound, all while Fiore clings to him to force a standup. Rebecki methodically works Fiore over with punches, and the New Hampshire native keeps his guard closed even while absorbing punishment. Rebecki continues his slow but steady drubbing of his grounded foe, and the horn sounds to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
The final frame begins with a glove touch, and Rebecki appears briefly energized although he walks into a few power punches and a front kick. Fiore advances first to go after a takedown, and Rebecki throws him down and backs off. Rebecki swipes with a right hand over the top and slams his shin on the inside of Fiore’s lead leg, and Fiore shakes his leg and backs off. Rebecki follows him all the way from one side of the cage to the other courtesy of a double, and he plops Fiore on the mat to pick up where he left off in the second round. Fiore once more closes up his guard, with no signs of standing or scrambling or moving in any fashion to recover. Rebecki does not mind, as he can go at his own pace, dropping down punches and keeping Hatley from making them get up. Rebecki thumps down an elbow and looks for a guard pass, but Fiore keeps him in this posture. Rebecki has activated the grind-embracing mode, and he has no interest in changing his pace or doing more on his end. Fiore briefly flirts with a high guard, but Rebecki shucks it off and returns to his control that has devolved into something more akin to lay-and-pray. The time ticks away while Rebecki holds on from on top, and with 30 seconds to spare, Fiore looks to implement a butterfly guard. There is nothing to it, as Rebecki holds on to the final bell, thereby taking Fiore to the scorecards for the first time in the latter's career.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Nick Fiore via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo is confident in Rębecki, calling him close to a lock. He cites Rębecki's relentless grappling, power, and experience against a short-notice debutant. He notes Fiore's BJJ black belt but thinks Rębecki's wrestling and pressure will be too much. He considers the -750 odds too rich for a bet but appropriate.

"I think Rebecca's close to a lock in this fight just given Styles short notice match up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, calling him a prospect to watch. He notes Rębecki's strong wrestling and grappling, and power on the feet. He sees Fiore as untested with limited tape, and believes Rębecki will finish him early, likely by knockout in the first round. He also mentions submission as a possibility but leans toward a knockout.

Rębecki by first round knockout
"I gotta go with robekski I'll take him to win by by first round finish honestly I think could be a potential knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, emphasizing his strength, wrestling, and experience against quality opponents. He notes Fiore's BJJ black belt but doubts he can handle Rębecki's physicality. He expects Rębecki to smash and repeat takedowns.

"Rebecca is UFC ready... he's battle tested already he's not learning on the job"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Jacob agrees Rębecki should win, noting Fiore's weak competition. He mentions Fiore's first two wins were against the same journeyman. He thinks Rębecki's grappling is superior but suggests a sprinkle on a weird submission due to Fiore's BJJ. He sees Rębecki as a safe play.

Mentions round 1 submission at +2500 as a Hail Mary sprinkle
"Rebecca is a much better fighter than anything Nick's ever seen"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul is very confident in Rębecki, calling him a powerhouse with excellent wrestling and durability. He notes Rębecki's battle-tested resume and believes he will dominate Fiore, who has fought low-level competition. He parlayed Rębecki with Ige and Umar.

Parlayed with Ige and Umar at +167; over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Rebecca looks like uh like an absolute Powerhouse he should absolutely roll here"
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.

"I think I'm gonna take Duncan here. I just like the potential for him as a finisher and as a power striker in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Submission round 2
"Chris Duncan submission round two after a war. He hurts Rebecki, jumps on the gilly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.

"I'll just take Rubisky. Yeah, it's been a minute since I've seen somebody like this does stand out to me on Chris Duncan's records that these are some pretty measured long range fighters that he has been taking on."