Career Averages - Piera Rodríguez
Career Averages - Ketlen Souza
Piera Rodríguez
Ketlen Souza
Piera Rodríguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 107 of 231 | 46% | 111 of 237 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 77 of 144 | 53% | 91 of 160 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 40 of 85 | 47% | 41 of 87 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 33 of 43 | 76% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 32 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 37 of 83 | 44% | 38 of 84 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 22 of 64 | 34% | 27 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 107 of 231 | 46% | 52 of 163 | 45 of 55 | 10 of 13 | 72 of 188 | 34 of 42 | 1 of 1 |
| Sam Hughes | 77 of 144 | 53% | 47 of 110 | 13 of 17 | 17 of 17 | 65 of 132 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 40 of 85 | 47% | 18 of 59 | 16 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 70 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 33 of 43 | 76% | 13 of 23 | 9 of 9 | 11 of 11 | 30 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 30 of 63 | 47% | 15 of 46 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 48 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Sam Hughes | 22 of 37 | 59% | 16 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 37 of 83 | 44% | 19 of 58 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 26 of 70 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 22 of 64 | 34% | 18 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez but is hesitant. He thinks Rodríguez's takedowns will be the key, as Sam Hughes's takedown defense has not been great. However, he warns that Las Vegas judges may not value wrestling, and if Hughes is busier on the feet, she could get the decision. He would not bet Rodríguez and prefers Hughes as a dog.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision, citing her improved cardio and wrestling since their first fight. He notes her elite takedown numbers (4.5 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy) and believes she will mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees the rematch playing out similarly to the first, with Rodríguez winning rounds 1 and 2 and possibly not slowing down in round 3.
Cody picks Hughes as a dog, citing her toughness, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Rodríguez's takedowns don't lead to control. He thinks Hughes can outwork her and win a decision.
Connor also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing that she was consistently ahead in the first fight and has the speed and technical edge. He notes that Hughes's wins come against inexperienced fighters, while Rodríguez is more well-rounded. He sees the rematch as unnecessary but expects a similar outcome.
James picks Sam Hughes as an underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes Hughes' improved takedown defense and cardio, and believes she can win by outworking Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's grappling advantage but thinks Hughes can edge a split decision.
The host believes Sam Hughes has improved since their first fight, particularly in strength and conditioning, and that her pressure and volume will be key. He notes that Hughes has better takedown defense now and can get back to her feet quickly, negating Rodriguez's clinch advantage. He expects Hughes to outdamage Rodriguez and win a decision, citing that rematches often play out differently and Hughes is the one who has improved more.
Paul leans Rodríguez, citing her wrestling and previous win over Hughes. He thinks she can get takedowns and control. He acknowledges it's close but favors the wrestler.
The Guru picks Piera Rodríguez to win the rematch, believing she will improve her striking and that her grappling will be more recognized by the judges this time. He notes that in the first fight, Rodríguez outgrappled Hughes but lost due to striking, and he thinks Rodríguez's youth gives her more room to improve. He predicts a split decision or 29-28.
Zane picks Piera Rodríguez, noting that she was faster and stronger in the first fight and controlled the grappling exchanges. He believes Hughes struggles against fighters with better athleticism and that Rodríguez's speed and technical edge will again be decisive. He acknowledges a chance for Hughes if she comes in more aggressive, but sees Rodríguez as the likely winner.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 64 of 150 | 42% | 81 of 171 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 56 of 103 | 54% | 86 of 139 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 31 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 53 | 39% | 27 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 33 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 64 of 150 | 42% | 28 of 92 | 23 of 37 | 13 of 21 | 48 of 126 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 56 of 103 | 54% | 29 of 72 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 18 | 48 of 92 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 21 of 55 | 38% | 7 of 31 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 11 | 9 of 39 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 19 of 32 | 59% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 22 of 42 | 52% | 11 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 16 of 28 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 21 of 53 | 39% | 10 of 32 | 7 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 21 of 43 | 48% | 11 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-190); Souza (+160)
Round 1
It’s a lovely day for combat. For those that missed the wonderous confines of the UFC Apex, you will find that the facility has upgraded since it was last seen on a broadcast. Twenty-four combatants tonight will break it in, starting with two ladies in the strawweight division needing a win to either stay above .500 or exceed that benchmark. Rodriguez (10-2, 3-2 UFC) is the one who could drop to an even UFC record should she fall, while Brazil’s Souza (15-5, 2-2 UFC) could go for a victory to stay in the good graces of the matchmakers. Referee Chris Tognoni will keep things genial during the mutual melee, bearing witness to a glove touch after clocking them in. Away we go.
Advertisement
Souza quickly claims the center of the cage, and it is Rodriguez who starts first with a low kick. Souza immediately replies with one back, and they pitch them at one another to find their leg range. Souza smacks Rodriguez with one that makes her recoil her leg awkwardly, and then checks the comeback. The low kicks are primarily the only strikes thrown the first minute, with Rodriguez circling along the outside as she tries to look for a jab as well. When Souza connects with her own jab, Rodriguez steps in and knees her in the body a few times before backing off. Rodriguez then jams a front kick to the body and ties Souza up again to deliver a few knees, ending with a trip attempt that fails. Souza disengages and works her way forward, clipping Rodriguez with two hooks and a step-in knee. Souza drives through two more hooks on the chin, her left hand marking up Rodriguez’ nose in the process. Rodriguez prods out jabs and front kicks, and she scores her own left hand that gets Souza’s attention. The two tie up in the middle of the cage, and Rodriguez blasts the body with several knees and hacks with elbows upstairs until Souza pushes her way out.
Souza walks into another clinch, eating a knee or two as Rodriguez is able to find her range properly. Rodriguez walks through a one-two to shoot in for a double-leg takedown, hitting it fairly easily and planting the Brazilian on her back in the open cage. Souza is able to acquit herself well on her back, defending from much damage and pushing Rodriguez off of her. Souza tries a whipping kick off her back to the body, and she uses it to explode her way to her feet and kick Rodriguez in the liver. They clash legs throwing simultaneous low kicks, and Rodriguez recovers quicker and wings two hooks. Souza responds with a spinning wheel kick try, and Rodriguez blasts through her hips with a double and puts Souza down again. Souza is quick to pursue a kimura off her back, using the position to also work her leg around the side to set up a back take. Rodriguez hangs on in the top position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
A glove touch sets the stage for them to commence, and Rodriguez immediately strides forward and pumps several knees to the midsection. Souza shoves her away and gets off a left hook, but Rodriguez is there to answer her with more knees to the gut. Rodriguez shoots for a double but ends up running into a Brazilian wall, one that kicks her in the body. Rodriguez checks a kick to come out behind her jab, and she puts three punches together ending with a solid right hand. She strings a couple more together, stinging Souza with a left hook and crashing forward for a double. Souza is dragged to her feet but bursts back upright before long. When Souza leaps at her opponent with a knee, Rodriguez catches her midair and dumps her to the ground with a takedown. Rodriguez punches Souza in the side and back, and Tognoni warns her for striking the spine.
Rodriguez sits in half guard, dropping down short punches until Souza throws up a leglock attempt. The submission setup allows her to scramble and fight back to her feet, where she clubs the Venezuelan with a left hand before pursuing her own shot. Rodriguez puts her back to the wall to defend it, and Souza spins with an elbow that catches her on the chin. Rodriguez slips and falls over, and she pops back up and nails Souza with a spinning back fist in a “two can play that game” message. Souza pushes Rodriguez to the wall and ties her leg up for a body lock and trip attempt, and Rodriguez is able to keep her balance on the first full-throated try. Tognoni asks for more action as the shot fails and it results in a stalemate against the wall. Souza looks for an ankle pick, and Rodriguez spins her around and puts her to the fencing. Souza breaks free at the 10-second clapper, and she takes two punches upstairs and a low kick before getting taken down from a single-leg takedown. The round ends as soon as Souza’s backside hits the mat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The strawweights clap hands to reintroduce themselves once more, and strikes fly from both ends. Rodriguez hammers the body with a knee and considers a takedown after it, but she abandons it and gets kicked multiple times on the outside. Souza wings two hooks at her, and she hops away from a sweeping calf kick. Rodriguez gets off a loud leg kick and takes a pecking jab to the nose, and she gives Souza a knee to think about. Rodriguez bowls her opponent over with not such much technique and more forward momentum and fatigue for both of them. Souza rolls through to get back up, and she pushes Rodriguez to the wall and goes for a single. Rodriguez shuts it down easily and circles off, connecting with an inside low kick to stop Souza’s forward charge. Rodriguez pops her with a few punches, takes a body kick and aims a right hand to the waist. Souza absorbs a right hand and checks a kick, pushing away Rodriguez who tries for a step-in vertical elbow.
The two crash together with strikes, and it is Rodriguez who lands a few times. Souza kicks her foe in the body, and Rodriguez fires back in kind. Souza snaps the head back with a left hand, and Rodriguez flicks out her jab a few times to set up a head kick that crashes into the Brazilian’s dome. Souza is tough as nails, swinging back with a vengeance, ending a combo of fists with a jump knee. Rodriguez shakes it off and drives two punches into the jaw before changing levels to complete a double. “La Fiera” lands on top in a partial half guard position, using the top placement to hold Souza down and keep her flat on her back. Rodriguez advances to side control, retaining her smothering approach while controlling rather than attacking. As time is about to run out, Rodriguez drops down a few elbows to punctuate the performance. Both women raise their arms in the air when the match ends, leaving it all in the hands of the judges.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Piera Rodriguez def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Connor picks Souza, noting that she showed improvement against Angela Hill, with better combination punching and comfort in the pocket. Rodriguez's game is based on desperation takedowns, and Souza is a solid defensive grappler. Connor cautions against overrating Souza's loss to Hill but believes she can keep the fight standing and build on that performance.
Zane also picks Souza, agreeing that her performance against Hill looked like a corner-turning moment, showing resilience and better flow. Rodriguez's wins have asterisks (e.g., Kay Hansen's identity crisis, Sam Hughes's lack of violence), and Souza is a good athlete with solid defensive grappling. Zane thinks Souza can avoid being held down and win the striking exchanges.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 67 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 85 of 137 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 10:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 24 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 20 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 40 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 26 of 55 | 47% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 30 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 36 of 64 | 56% | 26 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 26 | 11 of 16 | 13 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 19 of 31 | 61% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 19 | 31% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 5 of 14 | 35% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 |
Angelo picks Knutsson as the better striker who will use range and touch up Rodriguez from the outside. He notes Knutsson's forward pressure, combinations, and leg kicks, but also mentions her poor takedown defense. However, he is betting on Rodriguez via the plus 3.5 round spread because the odds are too wide for a 2-to-1 favorite, and he expects Rodriguez to win at least one round.
Big Brady picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (Cansen) to win by decision. He believes Cansen's striking is superior and that she will keep the fight standing, stuffing takedowns from Rodriguez. He notes Cansen's takedown defense is good and expects her volume to overwhelm Rodriguez on the feet. He acknowledges Rodriguez could win by getting takedowns in two rounds but thinks Cansen will avoid that.
Cody picks Josefine Knutsson, citing her striking volume, clinch work, and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes that Rodríguez has cardio issues and a tendency to gas after the first round. Cody believes Knutsson's Muay Thai and physicality will win the decision, though he is wary of the judges.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Knutsson because Rodríguez is a dumbass who makes the wrong decisions. He notes that Rodríguez has the physical tools to win but her tendency to foul and make poor choices makes her unreliable. Knutsson is a solid, average fighter who will stick to her game plan.
Daniel Vreeland picks Piera Rodríguez as a dog, contingent on her mixing in takedowns. He notes Knutsson has poor takedown defense and get-up game, as seen in her last fight. However, he is hesitant because Rodríguez has low fight IQ, as evidenced by her headbutt in a previous fight. He believes if Rodríguez fights optimally, she wins, but he's not fully confident she will execute the game plan.
Knutsson's hard-nosed striking style, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots while mixing in clinch work, will be too much for Piera Rodriguez. She is expected to grind out a decision victory, continuing her winning streak.
Paul picks Josefine Knutsson but is not confident, citing her takedown defense issues. He notes that Rodríguez has a path via wrestling, but Knutsson's striking should win if she can stay upright. Paul is not planning to bet heavily on this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson despite concerns about a potential 'fraud check' due to her past takedown vulnerabilities. He notes her crisp boxing and good standup, and believes she has been working on her grappling, making her less one-dimensional. He worries that Piera Rodríguez could take her down and grind out a win, but ultimately trusts Knutsson's undefeated record and technical striking.
Zane picks Knutsson but is hesitant, noting that Rodríguez is a natural fighter with better physical gifts but is also an idiot who makes terrible decisions, like trying to grapple with Gillian Robertson and headbutting her way to a loss. Knutsson is a steady technician who knows what she wants to do, similar to Lina Länsberg. Zane thinks Knutsson's consistency and clinch work should win, but Rodríguez could land big shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 51 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 73 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 60 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 16 of 49 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 50 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 10 of 33 | 30% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 21 of 31 | 67% | 16 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)
Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)
Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.
Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.
Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.
Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 46 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:23 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 25 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 14 | 92% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 26 of 39 | 66% | 20 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 33 | 36% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 29 | 41% | 10 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 14 | 92% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.
Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.
Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.
Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.
Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.
Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 83 of 160 | 51% | 89 of 166 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 69 of 155 | 44% | 78 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 20 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 34 of 51 | 66% | 37 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 32 of 58 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 83 of 160 | 51% | 32 of 101 | 42 of 48 | 9 of 11 | 47 of 122 | 33 of 35 | 3 of 3 |
| Sam Hughes | 69 of 155 | 44% | 55 of 135 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 55 of 140 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 19 of 53 | 35% | 7 of 35 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Sam Hughes | 21 of 56 | 37% | 18 of 50 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 34 of 51 | 66% | 13 of 29 | 17 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 35 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 |
| Sam Hughes | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 30 of 56 | 53% | 12 of 37 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 40 | 16 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 31 of 56 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 49 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez, believing she is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling. He notes that Sam Hughes has evolved into a grappler and needs takedowns to win, but Piera has good takedown defense and inflicts damage in scrambles. He calls it a no-bet situation because Sam is live, but he might bet Sam Hughes by decision (+3.5 points) if the odds drop.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision. He highlights Rodríguez's improved grappling and powerful striking, and notes that Sam Hughes has poor striking defense and takedown defense. He believes Rodríguez is a bad stylistic matchup for Hughes, who relies on grinding but will struggle to get takedowns. Brady expects a competitive fight but sees Rodríguez winning clearly on the feet and possibly with takedowns.
Cody picks Rodríguez, citing her striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Hughes has been winning with wrestling against weak opposition, but Rodríguez should be able to keep the fight standing and out-strike her. He is hesitant due to Rodríguez's cardio concerns.
Rodríguez is the better striker with power and leg kicks, and her wrestling is on par with Hughes. Hughes relies on pressure and wrestling, but Rodríguez should be able to stuff takedowns and win the striking exchanges. The host expects a decision win for Rodríguez and likes the decision prop at +105. However, the odds are slightly wide, and Hughes could be live.
Paul picks Rodríguez but is hesitant. He notes Rodríguez has good takedown defense and a striking advantage, but her cardio and ground game are question marks. He thinks Hughes could tire her out with wrestling, but ultimately Rodríguez should win.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez, noting her undefeated record and experience in main events. He believes she has too much power for Sam Hughes and will drop her in the first round, lose the second, and win the third on pace. He predicts a 29-28 decision, citing Rodríguez's sting in her shots and ability to withstand pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 50 of 88 | 56% | 77 of 124 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:13 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 31 of 77 | 40% | 54 of 106 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 22 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 29 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 50 of 88 | 56% | 26 of 60 | 18 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 34 of 70 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 6 |
| Kay Hansen | 31 of 77 | 40% | 22 of 61 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 66 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 13 of 35 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kay Hansen | 17 of 35 | 48% | 14 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 23 of 31 | 74% | 15 of 22 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Kay Hansen | 7 of 21 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 14 of 22 | 63% | 4 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Kay Hansen | 7 of 21 | 33% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Piera Rodríguez as the underdog. He highlights her nasty striking, calculated brawling, and good takedown defense. He notes that she does damage in defensive scrambles and has solid grappling defense if taken down. He believes there's something special in her style.
Big Brady slightly edges Rodríguez to win a volume-based decision on the feet, stuffing takedowns and working back up if taken down. He notes Rodríguez has power and improved takedown defense, while Hansen may struggle to get the fight to the mat. However, he has no confidence in this pick and will not bet it.
Cody takes Hansen as a slight underdog, noting she has scored takedowns in all her UFC fights. He thinks Rodríguez is hittable and not great at getting back up. Cody acknowledges Hansen's youth and inconsistency but believes her grappling can secure rounds. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation.
Levi notes Kay Hansen has fought better competition and has a path to victory on the ground, but questions her mental commitment due to outside income. He favors Piera Rodríguez's crisp hands and knockout power for the weight class, and thinks the fight location (striking range) favors Rodríguez. He admits he is not confident and has no bet on it.
I lean Kay Hansen because she is showing improvements in her striking and has clearly better BJJ. She can mix in grappling and clinch work to get the fight to the ground and wear on Piera from top position. I think she can hold her own in striking but needs to mix in grappling to avoid getting touched up. I see her winning via decision or submission.
Paul leans towards Rodríguez but calls it a pass. He notes Rodríguez's physicality and striking, but saw her gas in her Contender Series fight. He thinks Hansen's grappling could be a factor but that Rodríguez's pressure might be too much. He picks Rodríguez for the show but with low confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Kay Hansen as an underdog, citing her experience and activity. He notes that Hansen picks up as fights go on, winning the second and third rounds. He expects a close split decision, possibly 29-28, and mentions that Hansen's name recognition might sway judges. He also points out that Rodríguez's output was low on the Contender Series.
Ketlen Souza - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Souza (-300); Carnelossi (+225)
Round 1
Let’s face facts here: There’s a good chance that you’re reading this right now because you think this is the White House event that people have been talking about. That’s next week. This week, a dozen UFC fights play out in the company headquarters in Las Vegas. They will serve as a bit of an amuse-bouche, if you will, to the spectacle that will unfold on June 14. Let us not take away from the athletes competing tonight any further, however, as we introduce the first fight on the card. Women’s strawweights take the cage as a pair of 3-3 knockout-friendly Brazilian collide as Souza (16-6, 3-3 UFC) runs it back with Carnelossi (15-4, 3-3 UFC). The two first fought at Future FC 5 in 2019, where “Esquentadinha”—this roughly means “little hothead”—fell to a Carnelossi body kick in the third frame. Referee Chris Tognoni will serve as the first in-cage official of the evening, and the rematch starts off with a cordial glove touch.
Carnelossi advances first, crowding Souza behind a one-two. Carnelossi jabs the body and keeps in front of Souza presenting offense of some sort. It generally comes at one or two at a time, but it succeeds in keeping Souza back towards the fencing. Souza winds up with a heavy right hand and skirts away, marking up Carnelossi’s nose but not getting away in time before Carnelossi catches her back. Souza offers a low kick and a jab, and she leans away from the worst that Carnelossi swings at her. Souza strides forward, bangs a right hand off the guard to set up a left that splits through it, and her follow-up right hand puts Carnelossi down on her hands. When Carnelossi posts off them to stand back up, Souza times a perfect head kick that jacks Carnelossi in the jaw and sends her crashing back to the wall and floor. “Esquentadinha” finishes the job with one singularly devastating but wholly unnecessary left hand, and Tognoni has seen enough and waves the fight off. This triumph is sweet, sweet revenge for Souza, who just knocked out the first woman to finish her with strikes.
The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Ariane Carnelossi R1 1:34 via KO (Punches and Head Kick)
The host picks Souza confidently, stating that she is a little bit better anywhere the fight takes place outside of muscular ability. He notes that Souza is a better striker and a better grappler than Carnelossi, and expects her to cruise to a comfortable decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28.
AJ is confident Ketlen Souza will avenge her loss to Ariane Carnelossi. He notes Souza has improved significantly, now in better shape with legit boxing and pressure, while Carnelossi has stagnated or regressed. He expects Souza to outwork Carnelossi to a unanimous decision, citing her cleaner striking and improved grappling defense.
AJ believes Ketlen Souza has improved significantly since her prior loss to Carnelossi, with sharper boxing, better pressure, and cage cutting. He views Carnelossi as having stagnated, relying on power Muay Thai but lacking technical growth. AJ expects Souza to win a striking clinic, likely by decision, though a finish is possible.
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza, stating she is the better striker and grappler. He believes Souza will pressure forward, get Carnelossi to overcommit, and then secure a takedown. He notes that Souza's bad offensive takedowns are better than Carnelossi's worst takedown defense, and if it goes to the ground, Souza might get a finish.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He notes that Souza has improved since their first fight and is better everywhere, but he has concerns about her fight IQ after her performance against Bruna Brasil where she clinched for 15 minutes instead of finishing. He sees a potential knockout or submission but leans decision.
Ketlen Souza is in her prime and has a nice jab with aggressive volume. Ariane Carnelossi is not a volume striker and wants takedowns, but Souza's takedown defense should hold. Souza will win a decision, as Carnelossi has been inactive and lost last time out.
Cody picks Souza, noting her improved striking and volume compared to Carnelossi. He highlights Carnelossi's poor takedown defense and low output. Souza should win standing and has better cardio.
Connor picks Souza, describing her as a pressure fighter who throws big shots and clinches with better positioning. He contrasts Carnelossi as a short-armed, square, tense fighter with no range tools and poor wrestling. Connor notes that Carnelossi's only win came via DQ, and Souza is more likely to win clinch battles.
Ketlen Souza is picked because she is the better striker with power and can grapple. Ariane Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (22%) and cannot grapple. Souza should win by submission or decision, as she has a clear advantage everywhere.
Souza is a better wrestler and grappler than Carnelossi, who hasn't won a real fight since 2021. Carnelossi's only recent win was by DQ, and she was losing that fight. Souza should control the grappling exchanges and win a decision.
Lucrative James picks Ketlen Souza to win the rematch, citing her physical and skill improvements since their 2019 fight. He notes Souza's better conditioning, improved grappling, and recent performances against higher-level competition. He believes Carnelossi's wins since then are unimpressive and that Souza will avenge her loss via decision.
Souza has improved since their first fight, showing better durability and a slicker striking approach. She can wear on Carnelossi with clinch and grappling, and should be able to take Carnelossi's biggest shots. Souza wins a close decision, though the -285 line is too steep.
Paul picks Souza but is hesitant due to the high price. He notes Souza has improved since their first fight, while Carnelossi has not. He would prefer a better price but expects Souza to win.
Zane agrees, calling Carnelossi a 'sacrificial grappler' who loses to pressure and grappling. He notes that Souza is more likely to win the clinch with better positioning, while Carnelossi's game is all meat with no structure. Zane expects Souza to win easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruna Brasil | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 65 of 101 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 64 of 109 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 8:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruna Brasil | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 32 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 19 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 | |
| 2 | Bruna Brasil | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Bruna Brasil | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruna Brasil | 31 of 60 | 51% | 10 of 32 | 17 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 53 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 33 of 69 | 47% | 18 of 42 | 12 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 24 of 59 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruna Brasil | 12 of 19 | 63% | 2 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bruna Brasil | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 14 of 30 | 46% | 7 of 17 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bruna Brasil | 12 of 25 | 48% | 6 of 15 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 14 of 26 | 53% | 7 of 15 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Souza (-160); Brasil (+130)
Round 1
With the weigh-in silliness out of the way, the remaining nine pairings on the billing will proceed at their originally scheduled weight divisions. This one comes at the lightest of strawweight, in a must-win between countrywomen Brasil (11-5-1, 3-3 UFC) and “Esquentadinha” Souza (15-6, 2-3 UFC). The latter’s nickname means “little hothead,” much like the red emotion character from the animated film “Inside Out” voiced by the inimitable Lewis Black. It’s on with the fights, as the women clap hands under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean.
The taller Brasil is light on her feet, keeping her distance with long, reaching kicks as Souza walks her down. Brasil pounds Souza with an especially emphatic body kick that doubles her foe over, and she times a knee to the body when Souza rushes at her. Souza pursues a single-leg takedown, elevating the left leg of “The Special One” and setting it down to try to lift Brasil off the ground entirely. When that fails, she stomps on Brasil’s toes while pressing her weight on Brasil in the clinch. Dean asks for more activity, so Brasil takes note and knees Souza in the stomach to separate them. Souza charges in with her hands down to wing an out-of-range uppercut, and Brasil steps in with a solid knee to the solar plexus. Souza smiles and whiffs on her responses, spinning with a strike before pushing forward to tie Brasil up again.
When available, Brasil lifts up short knees to the abdomen, and Souza responds with knees to the thigh until Brasil trips her up and deposits her to the mat with a body lock. Souza pops right back up and gloms back on Brasil, imposing her weight without offering much else. Brasil is at least trying to fight, while Souza clings to her opponent as Dean claps at her. When Souza does not respond, Dean implores her for more activity than just competitive snuggling, and he breaks them up with 45 seconds left. Both women adjust their clothes, and Souza rushes forward and gets kicked off her feet. Souza tries to spin back, and she takes a knee to the sternum when pushing into the clinch. Brasil rolls her eyes as she gets shoved to the wall, and she mixes in a few knees before Souza backs off. Souza boots her in the face, and Brasil shakes her head as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brasil
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Brasil
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brasil
Round 2
Between rounds, Dean warns Brasil for timidity in just clinching without putting any offense behind it. The second stanza starts off like the first, with the short, stocky Souza chasing down Brasil, who is on her bike potshotting away. A high kick skims the side of Brasil’s face, who smiles and circles out the side as Souza bears down on her with punches. The tall, lanky Brasil rearranges her midsection with a ferocious knee, and Souza rushes through it to engage in a clinch. Brasil does not settle for getting pushed to the fencing, and she spins Souza around. Souza muscles her back around and holds her there, partially threatening with a level change but largely hanging out in the clinch. Dean’s urging for Souza to do something fall on deaf ears, as Souza has no plan in changing things up. Brasil actually strikes, with a knee to the body, and a frustrated Dean split them up. Souza responds to this by rushing out with a single right hand, and Brasil replies with a knee and tries for a flying kick.
Souza grips her arms around Brasil and is about to take her for a ride, but Brasil regains her balance and breaks out. Souza practically runs at her, and she lets loose a wheel kick that slams loudly into the guard, the kind of kick that even when blocked has a serious impact. Brasil knows the clinch is coming, but she cannot stop it as Souza dives after a single. Brasil shuts it down but is stifled against the wall, with Souza either going all-out for a takedown or occasionally kneeing the thigh. Brasil gets away and tosses out a thudding body kick, and she gets jabbed hard and appears to be compromised in her right eye. She does not complain that it was a poke, so it appears to be a legal punch square on the eye socket. Brasil wipes it out, and Souza does not take advantage of this, instead pressing in for a takedown. Brasil winces as she rides out the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to start off the last round, likely tied on the scorecards. Brasil is fully aware of the impending charge, a bull-rush that comes from the shorter Souza and pushes her all the way to the fence. Brasil offers up short knees on the inside to little effect, staying busy as Souza does nothing but hang on. Dean is already telling Souza to actually fight when in this clinch, and she ignores him. He breaks them up, and the crowd cheers. The ladies high-five, and Souza takes a moment to awkwardly wipe her hands off on her shorts while Brasil does not know if she is bowing at her or something else. Souza walks forward to engage, and she strides directly into a step-in knee. She shrugs it off completely, crashing forward hellbent for leather. She loads up on power punches from both hands, knocking Brasil around the cage but not pinning her down or hurting her badly. Brasil keeps moving, but the steady diet of hooks off her raised guard keep her from offering up much of her own. She scores a big wheel kick that bangs into Souza’s head, and Souza tanks it and keeps on rolling. Rather than keep on with what actually was working for her, Souza chooses to suck the energy out of the building by pressing into a clinch.
Dean is not having it, allowing Souza far less time grinding before saying something and stepping in. Souza wipes her hands off a few more times, and Brasil looks at her strangely until leaping at her with a knee. Brasil circles to the side, into the power right hand of Souza, who tries to hit her hard with her raised hand. Souza snatches up Brasil’s leg and sets her down with a leg drop like pro wrestlers, and then inexplicably backs off to let Brasil back up. Brasil turns the tables for her own trip takedown, and Souza hits a 50-50 position and works back up. Souza initiates yet another clinch, and Brasil knees her in the stomach several times until the excruciating slog of a match finally ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Bruna Brasil via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Bruna Brasil but is hesitant. He thinks she is the better fighter skill-for-skill but worries she has lost her aggression after training with Fighting Nerds. He notes she has become a distance pitter-patter striker instead of a creative power striker. He expects her to dance around and avoid Ketlen Souza's pressure, but if she loses a decision, he wouldn't be surprised. He advises not to bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza, citing her aggression, power, and pressure. He notes that Bruna Brasil is low volume and doesn't like getting hit, having been knocked out multiple times. He expects Souza to land big shots and potentially get a knockout, specifically predicting a second-round finish.
Cody also picks Souza, highlighting her strength and ability to get up from takedowns. He notes Brasil's pattern of alternating wins and losses, and expects Souza to outwork her. Cody is confident despite the line moving to favorite.
Connor also picks Souza, noting that she is the more pressing aggressive fighter and that Brazil's wins have been over no-hopers. He mentions that Souza made a close competitive fight out of Angela Hill, who is a better technician than Brazil. However, he acknowledges the fight could be a narrow decision.
Lucrative James leans toward Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He believes Souza is more durable and has more power, and notes that Brasil has been knocked out before. James also thinks Souza has faced higher-level competition and may have a slight edge in takedowns.
The host picks Souza with very low confidence, calling both women wild cards. He expects Souza to corral Brasil against the cage, mix in clinch work and takedowns, and grind out a decision. He notes Brasil can be passive and allow opponents to dictate pace, which Souza can exploit.
Paul picks Ketlen Souza, citing her power and experience against tougher competition. He notes Brasil's poor striking defense and lack of power. Paul expects Souza to land the bigger shots and win a close decision, though he admits it's a 50-50 fight.
The host picks Bruna Brasil over Ketlen Souza, going against his rule of women's MMA. He notes Brasil has good range, nasty knees, and clinch work. He thinks unless Souza can get takedowns, Brasil will outstrike her at range and beat her up in the clinch. He predicts a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Souza hesitantly, trusting her to keep attacking and land with authority. He notes that Brazil tends to fly backwards in a straight line when pressed and get hit, while Souza is more likely to press forward. However, he acknowledges that Souza might take time off and get poked, leading to a narrow decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 64 of 150 | 42% | 81 of 171 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 56 of 103 | 54% | 86 of 139 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 31 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 53 | 39% | 27 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 33 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 64 of 150 | 42% | 28 of 92 | 23 of 37 | 13 of 21 | 48 of 126 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 56 of 103 | 54% | 29 of 72 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 18 | 48 of 92 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 21 of 55 | 38% | 7 of 31 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 11 | 9 of 39 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 19 of 32 | 59% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 22 of 42 | 52% | 11 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 16 of 28 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 21 of 53 | 39% | 10 of 32 | 7 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 21 of 43 | 48% | 11 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-190); Souza (+160)
Round 1
It’s a lovely day for combat. For those that missed the wonderous confines of the UFC Apex, you will find that the facility has upgraded since it was last seen on a broadcast. Twenty-four combatants tonight will break it in, starting with two ladies in the strawweight division needing a win to either stay above .500 or exceed that benchmark. Rodriguez (10-2, 3-2 UFC) is the one who could drop to an even UFC record should she fall, while Brazil’s Souza (15-5, 2-2 UFC) could go for a victory to stay in the good graces of the matchmakers. Referee Chris Tognoni will keep things genial during the mutual melee, bearing witness to a glove touch after clocking them in. Away we go.
Advertisement
Souza quickly claims the center of the cage, and it is Rodriguez who starts first with a low kick. Souza immediately replies with one back, and they pitch them at one another to find their leg range. Souza smacks Rodriguez with one that makes her recoil her leg awkwardly, and then checks the comeback. The low kicks are primarily the only strikes thrown the first minute, with Rodriguez circling along the outside as she tries to look for a jab as well. When Souza connects with her own jab, Rodriguez steps in and knees her in the body a few times before backing off. Rodriguez then jams a front kick to the body and ties Souza up again to deliver a few knees, ending with a trip attempt that fails. Souza disengages and works her way forward, clipping Rodriguez with two hooks and a step-in knee. Souza drives through two more hooks on the chin, her left hand marking up Rodriguez’ nose in the process. Rodriguez prods out jabs and front kicks, and she scores her own left hand that gets Souza’s attention. The two tie up in the middle of the cage, and Rodriguez blasts the body with several knees and hacks with elbows upstairs until Souza pushes her way out.
Souza walks into another clinch, eating a knee or two as Rodriguez is able to find her range properly. Rodriguez walks through a one-two to shoot in for a double-leg takedown, hitting it fairly easily and planting the Brazilian on her back in the open cage. Souza is able to acquit herself well on her back, defending from much damage and pushing Rodriguez off of her. Souza tries a whipping kick off her back to the body, and she uses it to explode her way to her feet and kick Rodriguez in the liver. They clash legs throwing simultaneous low kicks, and Rodriguez recovers quicker and wings two hooks. Souza responds with a spinning wheel kick try, and Rodriguez blasts through her hips with a double and puts Souza down again. Souza is quick to pursue a kimura off her back, using the position to also work her leg around the side to set up a back take. Rodriguez hangs on in the top position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
A glove touch sets the stage for them to commence, and Rodriguez immediately strides forward and pumps several knees to the midsection. Souza shoves her away and gets off a left hook, but Rodriguez is there to answer her with more knees to the gut. Rodriguez shoots for a double but ends up running into a Brazilian wall, one that kicks her in the body. Rodriguez checks a kick to come out behind her jab, and she puts three punches together ending with a solid right hand. She strings a couple more together, stinging Souza with a left hook and crashing forward for a double. Souza is dragged to her feet but bursts back upright before long. When Souza leaps at her opponent with a knee, Rodriguez catches her midair and dumps her to the ground with a takedown. Rodriguez punches Souza in the side and back, and Tognoni warns her for striking the spine.
Rodriguez sits in half guard, dropping down short punches until Souza throws up a leglock attempt. The submission setup allows her to scramble and fight back to her feet, where she clubs the Venezuelan with a left hand before pursuing her own shot. Rodriguez puts her back to the wall to defend it, and Souza spins with an elbow that catches her on the chin. Rodriguez slips and falls over, and she pops back up and nails Souza with a spinning back fist in a “two can play that game” message. Souza pushes Rodriguez to the wall and ties her leg up for a body lock and trip attempt, and Rodriguez is able to keep her balance on the first full-throated try. Tognoni asks for more action as the shot fails and it results in a stalemate against the wall. Souza looks for an ankle pick, and Rodriguez spins her around and puts her to the fencing. Souza breaks free at the 10-second clapper, and she takes two punches upstairs and a low kick before getting taken down from a single-leg takedown. The round ends as soon as Souza’s backside hits the mat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The strawweights clap hands to reintroduce themselves once more, and strikes fly from both ends. Rodriguez hammers the body with a knee and considers a takedown after it, but she abandons it and gets kicked multiple times on the outside. Souza wings two hooks at her, and she hops away from a sweeping calf kick. Rodriguez gets off a loud leg kick and takes a pecking jab to the nose, and she gives Souza a knee to think about. Rodriguez bowls her opponent over with not such much technique and more forward momentum and fatigue for both of them. Souza rolls through to get back up, and she pushes Rodriguez to the wall and goes for a single. Rodriguez shuts it down easily and circles off, connecting with an inside low kick to stop Souza’s forward charge. Rodriguez pops her with a few punches, takes a body kick and aims a right hand to the waist. Souza absorbs a right hand and checks a kick, pushing away Rodriguez who tries for a step-in vertical elbow.
The two crash together with strikes, and it is Rodriguez who lands a few times. Souza kicks her foe in the body, and Rodriguez fires back in kind. Souza snaps the head back with a left hand, and Rodriguez flicks out her jab a few times to set up a head kick that crashes into the Brazilian’s dome. Souza is tough as nails, swinging back with a vengeance, ending a combo of fists with a jump knee. Rodriguez shakes it off and drives two punches into the jaw before changing levels to complete a double. “La Fiera” lands on top in a partial half guard position, using the top placement to hold Souza down and keep her flat on her back. Rodriguez advances to side control, retaining her smothering approach while controlling rather than attacking. As time is about to run out, Rodriguez drops down a few elbows to punctuate the performance. Both women raise their arms in the air when the match ends, leaving it all in the hands of the judges.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Piera Rodriguez def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Connor picks Souza, noting that she showed improvement against Angela Hill, with better combination punching and comfort in the pocket. Rodriguez's game is based on desperation takedowns, and Souza is a solid defensive grappler. Connor cautions against overrating Souza's loss to Hill but believes she can keep the fight standing and build on that performance.
Zane also picks Souza, agreeing that her performance against Hill looked like a corner-turning moment, showing resilience and better flow. Rodriguez's wins have asterisks (e.g., Kay Hansen's identity crisis, Sam Hughes's lack of violence), and Souza is a good athlete with solid defensive grappling. Zane thinks Souza can avoid being held down and win the striking exchanges.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 86 of 158 | 54% | 103 of 176 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 70 of 138 | 50% | 77 of 146 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 40 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 42 of 70 | 60% | 46 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 35 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 17 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 86 of 158 | 54% | 40 of 96 | 40 of 55 | 6 of 7 | 63 of 131 | 16 of 19 | 7 of 8 |
| Ketlen Souza | 70 of 138 | 50% | 41 of 101 | 19 of 23 | 10 of 14 | 61 of 128 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 28 of 46 | 60% | 10 of 27 | 17 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 28 | 11 of 12 | 5 of 6 |
| Ketlen Souza | 15 of 27 | 55% | 8 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 42 of 70 | 60% | 22 of 43 | 17 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 64 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 32 of 65 | 49% | 21 of 49 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 7 | 27 of 59 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Ketlen Souza | 23 of 46 | 50% | 12 of 33 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-112), Souza (-108)
Round 1
Continuing on the prelims is what is becoming a strawweight tale as old as time. The savvy veteran Hill (17-14, 12-14 UFC), who holds a litany of record at 115 pounds including the most victories and defeats, is forced to take on a less-experienced rival for a possible torch-passing moment. While this will be the 20th pro outing for Souza (15-4, 2-1 UFC), it may serve as her own toughest fight, even though the same cannot be said about her opponent. There is not a glove touch to get started, with the women so eager to get going they nearly step over referee Mark Smith’s call to action. Hill immediately gets behind her favored jab, and she pressures the Brazilian around while dodging a spin kick. Hill works the body from up close with knees, pressing Souza to the fencing and taking a few back. Hill’s are cleaner and heavier, and she decides to break out of the clinch and find another angle. A few jabs out the outside score for Hill, who eats a one-two that drives her back. Hill goes to the body with a slapping kick, and she clips Souza with a long right hook and a scooping left. Souza misses on the counter, and the two shoot in at the same time and bang their foreheads together. Souza sticks out a front kick and blocks ahead kick in response, and the two clash together once more. Hill rolls with a punch to come out with a right over the top, and she digs a left to the solar plexus as she ties her opponent up. Hill times knees to the belly, punching her way out of the clinch but standing in the pocket when Souza wants to throw down. Souza comes out swinging a bit too aggressively, and “Overkill” surprises her with a double that plants the Brazilian on the mat. Souza turns to her knees so she can stand up, and Hill batters her in the side with numerous knees as her corner is thrilled she is listening to their instructions. Hill sneaks as hook around to partially take the back, and she hangs on clubbing Souza from behind until she is swept and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
The strawweights meet in the middle trading kicks to start the round, and Hill uses head movement and footwork to tag Souza and eat counters. Hill goes to the body and then tries to go up top, and leg kick chops at the knee. The ladies stun one another with straight punches, and the bridge of Hill’s nose is showing a little damage. Hill slips a punch to bang Souza on the side of the head, and she fakes a level change to come up with a left hook. Hill fakes a jumping switch kick and goes after a takedown, forcing Souza to respond to the attempt fully. Hill sets up a clinch to drive knees through the guard, and Souza shakes her off and blocks a head kick. Both women slip in short right hooks, and Souza follows one with a knee to the body. Souza uses a right hand to open up a head kick, and Hill blocks it just in the nick of time. Souza spins with a back kick that plants firmly on the vet’s ribs, and she keeps targeting the body with additional punches. Hill glides back and gets Souza’s attention with an overhand right, and a second makes the advancing Souza take a few back steps. Hill takes low kick so she can reply with a side kick, and Souza sees an opening and spins with a wheel kick. Hill lets it glance past her so she can spin with a kick to the side, and the two are having some fun in there. Souza leaps forward with a huge left hand, and Hill’s chin is made of sterner stuff because she does not only not budge, but she keeps coming forward and even rings Souza’s bell with a spinning elbow. Souza pushes out a front kick and takes a flush knee at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Round 3
Leg kicks from both ladies open up the final frame, and Souza spins with one failed kick to aim a wheel kick up top. Hill dodges it and shoots for a takedown, and Souza defends with a guillotine choke but hits her back and does not have the leverage for it. Hill stays tight on top of the Brazilian, preventing her from any sweep, scramble or get-up. Souza holds up a knee shield, so Hill is in an unusual partial half guard situation, and she pries Souza’s legs open to find a home for her striking. Souza kicks her off and bursts to her feet, and Hill defends with a choke that has nothing to it. Souza gets away and follows a few jabs with a right hand. Hill kicks low and evades a huge right hand, with Souza aiming big firepower around the midpoint of the last round. Souza pitches out a few calf kicks, and she freezes Hill with a right hand but gets caught with two coming back her direction. Souza keeps her distance with probing kicks, and she stays far enough away to not get hit with a jumping switch kick. Hill swarms her way forward, and both women land flush one another. Hill goes to the body and head, and she jumps in with a knee that bangs into the forehead. “Overkill” punches her way into a takedown effort, but Souza shuts it down and forces them back to kickboxing range. Hill rushes after her, hands flying, and Souza’s defensive efforts keep her largely safe. Hill wraps a left around the guard and digs a kick to the belly, and Souza bends over and throws Hill to the floor by her ankle. Hill climbs back up, pushes through a spin kick, drills Souza with a right hand while the Brazilian is attempting a jump knee, and the strawweight tilt comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza as an underdog, citing her pressure fighting style. He notes that Angela Hill does not like backing up and Souza is a known pressure fighter who will move forward and bomb away. He worries about Souza's cardio but believes she can hold Hill against the cage and drag her down. He also mentions a potential prop bet on Souza to win one round at plus money.
Big Brady picks Hill by decision, arguing Hill has improved grappling and striking volume. Souza's only win was against a chinny opponent, and Hill has never been knocked out. Hill has the advantage in both striking and grappling, and Souza has been finished in all four losses.
Hill's experience and striking are matched against Souza's aggressiveness and submission ability. Hill will stop most takedowns and get ahead on the striking numbers, winning on the scorecards. A pick'em fight.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Ketlen Souza, though he initially hesitates. He notes Souza's win over Yasmin Jauregui but questions her losses to Manon Fiorot and Josiane Nunes. He highlights Hill's toughness, experience, and wins over solid opponents, and believes Hill's consistency will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Souza | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Souza | 35 of 73 | 47% | 18 of 52 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 29 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 21 of 35 | 60% | 12 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Souza | 35 of 73 | 47% | 18 of 52 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 29 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 21 of 35 | 60% | 12 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jauregui (-500), Souza (+380)
Round 1
One of three ladies repping Mexico tonight, Jauregui (11-1, 3-1 UFC) recently got past her first career hiccup by beating up on Sam Hughes in February. Her opponent Souza (14-4, 1-1 UFC) too rebounded from a defeat, taking a decision over Marnic Mann this past April. One of these one-fight win streaks will come to a screeching halt in 15 minutes or less, and referee Jason Herzog should be the first to know. The strawweights tap gloves together before engaging. Jauregui jabs first, and he follows one with a leg kick that she turns her hips into. Jauregui strings together a combination started by a jab, and when Souza responds, Jauregui dings her with a right hand over the top. Jauregui prods out a jab with her foot, and she sticks a few more jabs before another front kick to the body irritates the Brazilian. Jauregui puts a combination of strikes to the body and head, and one low kick bangs into Souza’s groin. Souza takes a little over 30 seconds to recover, and they start off with flurries on both sides. The two women stand and bang, and Jauregui pushes Souza to her back after landing flush. Souza jumps back upright, and Jauregui works her lead leg over with kicks before marking up the body. Jauregui splits the guard with a right hand, putting two kicks together and a few punches after it. Jauregui is constantly attacking, with a jump knee into a few punches. Souza jabs her back, and she plants a front kick directly on Jauregui’s groin to pay her back from the foul. They both let out wails of surprise and discomfort, and Herzog tells them they both had one so they can have no more. Souza walks her foe down, but she gets tagged with four strikes up close before she gets anything off. Jauregui paws out a front kick to the thigh, and “Esquentadinha”—which means “Little Hothead” releases a fiery right hand that sets up a flaming left. As soon as Souza connects, Jauregui hits the ground hard. Jauregui sits up, and Souza pounces, seeing that Jauregui still does not have her wits about her.
Souza takes the back while she is standing up and Jauregui is seated, and she grips a rear-naked choke that is instantly under the chin before she even gets her hooks in. The Brazilian deploys both hooks and Jauregui frantically hand-fights to save herself from the submission. Souza’s grip is ironclad, and Jauregui stops fighting the hands and starts lifelessly flailing.
With her eyes open, Jauregui goes out, and Herzog is quick to get between them and turns Jauregui to her side to get blood flowing back to her brain. Souza unleashes a bellow as she walks off, recording the first finish inside of the Sphere and notching a huge upset. The victorious Brazilian becomes the first fighter to submit Jauregui, doing so with style points with the technical submission.
The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Yazmin Jauregui R1 3:02 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Yazmin Jauregui confidently, citing her superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes she defended all six takedowns in her last fight and should be too good to be taken down by Souza. His only concern is Souza's power, as he saw Jauregui get knocked out live at UFC 290, but he believes she should be fine. He suggests the under 2.5 rounds could be a sneaky play as both have finishing ability.
Big Brady believes Jauregui is the much better fighter everywhere, especially on the feet where she is powerful and can break Souza. He notes Souza has been finished in all four losses (two by submission, two by KO) and expects Jauregui to get a second-round knockout.
Daniel picks Yazmin Jauregui, praising her volume, speed, composure, and improved grappling. He notes Souza's lower output and high-energy moves that may lead to gassing. He expects Jauregui to win by decision or finish.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Jauregui is an absolute menace and the second biggest favorite on the card. She is far superior to Souza in the striking realm. If Souza looks to take the fight to the ground, she will struggle, allowing Jauregui to touch her up from distance and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui. He notes she is a more technical fighter and a good prospect who bounced back after a KO loss with a win. He mentions she has good wins in the UFC and has fraud-checked some fighters. He dismisses the loss to Denise Gomez as a fluke due to Gomez's power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 31 of 77 | 40% | 111 of 159 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 2:54 |
| Marnic Mann | 0 | 80 of 116 | 68% | 93 of 132 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Souza | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marnic Mann | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 29 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Souza | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 49 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marnic Mann | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 31 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Souza | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 44 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:31 |
| Marnic Mann | 0 | 30 of 44 | 68% | 33 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Souza | 31 of 77 | 40% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 10 | 18 of 28 | 28 of 73 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Marnic Mann | 80 of 116 | 68% | 38 of 69 | 28 of 33 | 14 of 14 | 71 of 105 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Souza | 11 of 21 | 52% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marnic Mann | 23 of 31 | 74% | 9 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Souza | 11 of 36 | 30% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marnic Mann | 27 of 41 | 65% | 13 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Souza | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Marnic Mann | 30 of 44 | 68% | 16 of 29 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Both women are hesitant. It takes 40 seconds, but Mann lands a leg kick. Souza strikes back with one of her own 20 seconds later. Mann throws a nice high kick. Souza uses a push kick and follows it with a leg kick. Souza finally throws her hands, landing with a left and right hook, then connects with a spinning back kick. Mann clinches and starts landing knees to the body. Souza escapes and lands a stunning right hand. Souza has a clear advantage with her hands. Mann looks like she doesn't want to engage at a distance. A right hand lands for Souza, who then throws a jumping knee and gets a takedown. Mann is eating punches and loses guard. Souza does some damage and then stands up. The round ends with Souza looking for a spinning kick and then landing a right hand before Mann lands a throw.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Round 2
Souza begins the round working her jab. She backs Mann up against the fence, who lands a knee in the clinch. Souza backs up and lands an overhand right. A body kick hurts Mann, who then clinches. Souza gets space and lands two kicks to the body. Mann misses a leg kick but is able to land two to the body. A right hand for Mann lands, but this upsets Souza, who bites down on her mouthpiece and unloads. Souza is back on the attack and catches Mann with a left hook. A right hand comes through for Souza. Mann charges forward and tries to throw Souza but gets reversed. Souza lands on top and is happy to do some damage in guard until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Round 3
Souza checks a kick. Mann is showing some urgency being down two rounds, but it's mostly coming in the form of leg kicks, which aren't going to finish the fight. Souza backs her opponent up and unloads with hooks. Shots to the body hurt Mann. Souza gets a takedown. Mann uses a kimura to sweep and is now in full guard. Mann is throwing punches to the body but isn't willing to take a risk and go for a finish. 90 seconds left. Mann lands a few more punches before Souza gets to the feet. Souza lands a spinning kick but gets taken down. Mann lands some elbows to the body and is then reversed as the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza (30-27 Souza)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Souza (30-27 Souza)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (30-27 Souza)
The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Marnic Mann via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza but disagrees with her being a 4-to-1 favorite, calling Marnic Mann a 'cannonball' who is tough and will stay in your face. He notes Souza has heavy strikes and solid grappling but relies on strength. He expects a dogfight and thinks over 2.5 rounds is the safest play because Mann is incredibly tough. He is confident Souza will get it done but not at those odds.
Cody picks Souza, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes Mann is undersized and has poor takedown defense. He expects Souza to use her grappling to control and submit Mann, though he warns about the weight cut.
Daniel thinks Souza is more experienced and well-rounded, with better striking and takedown defense. He notes Mann's only path is top control, but Souza can fight off her back. He picks Souza to win but has no interest in betting at -335.
Mann has a wrestling advantage and Souza has sketchy takedown defense. If Mann can get the fight to the ground, she can grind out a decision. However, if she can't, things could get shaky. The odds are wide, and I'd rather take the plus money on Mann. Low confidence, but I lean Mann by decision.
Paul picks Souza, calling her a rightful favorite. He notes Mann's lack of impressive wins and poor performance against Josephine Knutsson. He expects Souza's grappling and physicality to be too much, but admits the line is unappealing.
The MMA Guru picks Ketlen Souza, calling her more masculine and powerful. He criticizes Marnic Mann as terrible and not UFC caliber, noting her poor record and losses. He highlights Souza's finishing potential with seven or eight TKOs in 13 wins, and believes she has more power and physicality. He dismisses Souza's loss to Karine Silva as Silva being really good.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-225), Souza (+190)
Round 1
Two Brazilian flyweights will come to blows for this next encounter, as Silva (15-4, 1-0 UFC) hopes to keep her 100% stoppage rate intact at the expense of former Invicta champ Souza (13-3, 0-0 UFC). While Silva is an equal opportunity finisher, the majority of the debuting Souza’s victories have come due to strikes or an opponent saying “no mas.” The ladies will be joined in the cage by Octagon overseer Chris Tognoni, and they introduce themselves to one another with a glove touch. Silva leads the dance with a few low kicks from both legs, and she aims one to the side before lunging ahead with punches. The ladies end up in the clinch, and Silva is quick to muscle Souza right down to the floor. Silva moves to half guard, while Souza defends from her side instead of laying flat on her back. Souza recovers guard as she takes an elbow to the dome, and Souza lines up a big left from her back only to get blasted with a response.
Silva drops to her back out of nowhere hunting for a leglock, and she places her foe’s ankle beneath her armpit. Before she focuses on the ankle or Achilles, Silva cranks the knee to the side calmly but viciously. Souza’s knee completely blows out as Silva torques it, in what is not quite a kneebar or an Achilles lock, as kneebars tend to hyperextend the knee and not wrench it to the side laterally. Souza immediately grimaces in pain and taps out, tendons and ligaments having snapped and popped like overtuned guitar strings.
Silva releases the grip to get up and celebrate, while Souza needs help standing up. Souza is aided getting out of the cage, her knee totally thrashed, and she could be facing a lengthy layoff. Silva, however, validates her “Killer” nickname with the nasty sub, and her finish rate remains a scary 100%.
The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ketlen Souza R1 1:45 via Submission (Kneebar)
Angelo picks Silva, citing her powerful grappling and 15 stoppage wins. He thinks Souza is too committed to her strikes, which will leave her open to takedowns. He is concerned Silva has never been to a decision and may fade late, but still expects her to win. He has bets on Silva.
Cody is hesitant on Silva at -225. He notes Silva's wrestling and physical strength could lead to a grappling match, which favors her. However, he questions whether Silva's wins over lower-level competition justify the price. He thinks Souza could be a decent prospect but is unsure how quickly she can adapt. Cody doesn't feel confident enough to bet Silva at this price.
Connor picks Silva, noting that she is more durable and has better grappling. He points out that Souza has been TKO'd by kicks before and is likely a strawweight. Connor believes Silva's single-strike power and takedown ability will be enough to win a slow-paced fight.
Daniel picks Karine Silva, noting that both fighters are finishers but Silva has a 100% finish rate. He sees Souza's lack of takedown defense as a major vulnerability, and Silva's improving striking and grappling should lead to a finish. However, he doesn't have a bet on it, calling it a dog-or-pass.
Jacob picks Silva, believing her ground game will be too much for Souza. He notes Souza stays on her back and doesn't work to get up, which plays into Silva's strengths. Jacob thinks Silva's striking defense is sound and she will get takedowns and look for finishes. He likes Silva for future fights but expects her to win here.
Silva is aggressive and prefers grappling, with most of her wins by submission. Souza is a mobile striker with good kicks but questionable takedown defense. Silva will use a grapple-heavy approach, but Souza is active off her back, so the fight may go over 2.5 rounds. Silva wins by decision.
Paul picks the underdog Ketlen Souza at +190. He notes the price is too big on Karine Silva due to unknowns about Souza's UFC debut. He mentions Souza's recent improvements, including a spinning back kick win in Invicta. However, he acknowledges Souza is uncomfortable on her back, which is Silva's path to victory. Paul is hesitant and says he'll pass on betting this fight.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Karine Silva, citing her massive finishing potential and experience in the UFC. He notes Silva has four first-round finishes in a row, including against Pollyanna Botelho, while Souza has mostly decisions against lower-level opponents. He believes Silva will hurt Souza on the feet and then secure a submission, likely a choke. He thinks if it goes to decision, Silva still wins.
Zane picks Silva, citing her better grappling and durability. He notes that Silva has solid wrestling and submission skills, while Souza is more one-dimensional and positionally sacrificial. Zane expects Silva to win the grappling exchanges and outwork Souza in a slow-paced kickboxing match.
Expert Picks (2)
Connor picks Souza, noting that she showed improvement against Angela Hill, with better combination punching and comfort in the pocket. Rodriguez's game is based on desperation takedowns, and Souza is a solid defensive grappler. Connor cautions against overrating Souza's loss to Hill but believes she can keep the fight standing and build on that performance.
Zane also picks Souza, agreeing that her performance against Hill looked like a corner-turning moment, showing resilience and better flow. Rodriguez's wins have asterisks (e.g., Kay Hansen's identity crisis, Sam Hughes's lack of violence), and Souza is a good athlete with solid defensive grappling. Zane thinks Souza can avoid being held down and win the striking exchanges.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!