Career Averages - Rafael Estevam
Career Averages - Felipe Bunes
Rafael Estevam
Felipe Bunes
Rafael Estevam - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethyn Ewing | 1 | 114 of 197 | 57% | 116 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 44 of 185 | 23% | 45 of 186 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethyn Ewing | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 17 of 63 | 26% | 17 of 63 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ethyn Ewing | 0 | 67 of 109 | 61% | 68 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 14 of 79 | 17% | 15 of 80 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ethyn Ewing | 1 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 13 of 43 | 30% | 13 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethyn Ewing | 114 of 197 | 57% | 88 of 168 | 20 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 107 of 187 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Rafael Estevam | 44 of 185 | 23% | 35 of 165 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 15 | 44 of 184 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethyn Ewing | 20 of 47 | 42% | 16 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael Estevam | 17 of 63 | 26% | 13 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 17 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ethyn Ewing | 67 of 109 | 61% | 49 of 89 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 64 of 105 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Estevam | 14 of 79 | 17% | 13 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 14 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ethyn Ewing | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael Estevam | 13 of 43 | 30% | 9 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ewing (-160); Estevam (+135)
Round 1
Even though the fight happened in November 2025, Ewing (9-2, 1-0 UFC) still has some hype about him for shutting down then-unbeaten Malcolm Wellmaker in a surprise thriller. “The Professor Finesser” stares down another undefeated opponent, this time former flyweight Estevam (14-0, 3-0 UFC). The Brazilian could not be bothered to make weight at this new, higher category, suffering a 20% fine as a not-so-bantamweight. Guarding over the catchweight contest will be referee Chris Tognoni. The fighters elect not to bump fists.
The two are cautious to engage, with only one strike in the first 20 seconds landing—a low kick from the Brazilian. Ewing paws out his jab and is kicked again in the front leg. Estevam kicks from his read leg, and he allows Ewing to swing so he can dodge and counter with a left hand. Estevam keeps working on the front leg, and Ewing kicks him back far heavier. Ewing doubles up on his jab out of range, hopping back from a low kick but not away from a left hook. Estevam spins with a back fist and nearly topples over, and he gathers himself and braces for impact from the American. When Ewing engages, Estevam shoots in for a single. Ewing sprawls, and Estevam redoubles his effort but is unable to secure the takedown. Estevam lets it go and parries a jab, and a shovel uppercut and low kick get through. Estevam ducks and dips to offer out an uppercut, narrowly missing the target. Estevam tries this combination again, and he gets closer but still only manages to strike with an overhand right.
Ewing deftly shuts down the takedown shot that comes, and he takes two punches off the guard and a third on the chin. Estevam leaps out for a flying knee, and Ewing intercepts him on the way up with a knee that bangs into the cup. Estevam lands and protests, and Tognoni calls time. Estevam takes 40 seconds to get his bearings, and he reintroduces himself with a calf kick and a sharp jab. Ewing slides out of the way and pulls back before throwing his punches, with Estevam beating him to the punch with everything but a hard right hand. Estevam staggers back, possibly stunned or at least off-balance, and he shoots in for a takedown and gets sprawled like a pancake. Ewing gets right in his face and lets his head movement keep him safe, busting Estevam in the chops with a few punches. Ewing fearlessly walks his opponent down, staying just out of range from the worst flying at his head. Ewing laughs off a takedown and knocks Estevam to his seat with a flurry of fists, and time expires to save Estevam. Happy as a clam, Ewing shimmies after the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Round 2
Estevam starts out aggressively, throwing punches and low kicks before shooting for a takedown. Ewing stands him up and knees him flush in the face. Estevam shakes it off and surges forward, unable to pin Ewing down but throwing nonetheless. Ewing dances back from big swings and throws back with accurate blows, bloodying up the Brazilian’s nose and forcing him to shoot awkwardly. Estevam hurls a big punch, and Ewing slips it and jams him in the ribs with a left. Estevam has his back to the wall and takes a clean right hand that shakes him up, and two more big hooks from Ewing pound off his melon. Estevam is throwing back with a vengeance, but Ewing cannot miss. Estevam tries to catch Ewing coming in with an elbow, and Ewing gives him a taste of his own medicine and proceeds to knee him as well. Estevam comes into clinch in hopes of setting up some grappling, and Ewing tosses him aside and boxes him up with a number of jabs. Ewing slips with a crisp uppercut, and Estevam turns away, not a fan of that blow. He goes to the lead leg with kicks, and he is in his flow state at this point.
Estevam peppers Ewing’s guard with punches and takes a hard one on the chin that makes him step back, with the American staying out of the way when Estevam leaps towards him. Ewing’s combinations are quick and pinpoint accurate, as he loops his right hand over the arm of his foe to bang it into Estevam’s temple time and again. Estevam is tough but is taking serious damage, the power on the side of Ewing. Ewing rocks the Brazilian with a bomb of a right hand, and Estevam desperately shoots for a takedown only to get completely shut down. Ewing stalks Estevam down, stumbles him and raises his arms defiantly. Estevam gathers himself and slugs his way forward, but this only opens him up to Ewing’s fluid combos and surprising power. Estevam’s takedown shot is met with a submission trap, and he stands up to take four punches right in the face. Estevam is hanging in there as Ewing rolls downhill on him, with the American swaying and dodging practically everything while putting a beating on the undefeated athlete. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Round 3
The two meet in the pocket in the center of the cage and proceed to trade hands. Ewing dances on the outer edge of Estevam’s strikes, slipping them and countering while the crowd chants for either “Ethyn” or “Defense.” Ewing walks through anything hurled at him, including a kick to his groin, so that he can further pressure the unbeaten fighter. Ewing checks a kick and goes upstairs with a right hand, and he stumbles his man with a clubbing right hook. Estevam gathers his thoughts, albeit fleeting at this point, and backs himself to the fence in hopes of countering off of it.
Ewing does not let him do it, instead boxing Estevam up with a magnificent combination of punches. In his element, Ewing concludes his combo with a devastating left to the liver, and Estevam folds like a flan in a cupboard, falling to his back totally defeated. As Tognoni sprints in to stop the fight, Ewing rains down a single standing-to-ground crushing-yet-unnecessary hammerfist
, and that’s all the work he needs to put in tonight. That marks two undefeated opponents, two victories for the rising star Ewing, who appears to be one to watch going forward in the talent-stacked bantamweight division.
The Official Result
Ethyn Ewing def. Rafael Estevam R3 1:44 via KO (Punch to the Body)
Angelo picks Rafael Estevam, citing recency bias in the line. He notes Estevam is a high-pressure grappler with relentless takedowns, while Ethyn Ewing's takedown defense is unproven. He believes Estevam will overwhelm Ewing with wrestling and control. Angelo mentions he bet on Estevam and would be shocked if he doesn't flip to favorite.
Big Brady picks Rafael Estevam as an underdog. He notes Estevam is a dominant grappler who takes opponents down and controls them for entire fights, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes. He thinks Ewing can be taken down and that Estevam's cardio may improve at bantamweight. He acknowledges Ewing's hype but believes Estevam's style is a tough matchup.
Cody picks Ewing because Estevam's grappling-heavy style is boring and may not score well with judges trending towards damage. He notes Estevam's weight misses and move up in weight, and believes Ewing's scrambling and striking will earn a decision.
The host likes Ewing because he is more well-rounded and has multiple paths to victory, while Estevam only has one path (grappling). Ewing showed great cardio and takedown defense in his debut, and Estevam's inefficient wrestling style leads to fatigue. The host caps Ewing at 65% chance to win, seeing value at -148.
James picks Ethyn Ewing as the underdog, praising his boxing combinations, cardio, and ability to extend strikes in the pocket. He believes Ewing will weather Estevam's early wrestling, win rounds two and three, and potentially secure a late TKO. He notes Estevam's cardio issues and weight cut struggles, and thinks Ewing's calf kicks and defensive improvements will be key. He predicts a round three TKO.
James picks Ethyn Ewing as his 'Hammer of the Week' moneyline bet. He believes Ewing's striking, cardio, and ability to extend combinations will overcome Estevam's wrestling. He expects Ewing to win, possibly by finish in later rounds as Estevam tires.
The host believes the hype on Ewing is driving the line, but Estevam's grappling will be the difference. He notes Estevam's 14-0 record, ability to take down dangerous strikers, and submission threat. He expects Estevam to get the fight to the ground and submit Ewing, referencing Ewing's previous submission loss. He took a shot on Estevam at plus money.
Paul sides with Ewing, noting Estevam's style is ill-suited for a move up in weight. He expects Ewing to stuff takedowns and win on the feet, possibly via live betting.
The MMA Guru picks Ethyn Ewing, noting his impressive performance on short notice against Malcolm Wellmaker and his full camp advantage. He believes Ewing's grappling, cardio, and volume will overwhelm Rafael Estevam, who missed weight and faces pressure. He predicts a third-round finish.
Lucrative James mentions this fight in the intro as a grapplers' delight but does not provide a breakdown or pick for it. He does not discuss the matchup in detail later in the transcript.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 33 of 70 | 47% | 128 of 204 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 10:42 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 38 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 47 of 83 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 69 of 95 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 33 of 70 | 47% | 22 of 50 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 |
| Felipe Bunes | 26 of 56 | 46% | 15 of 39 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 8 of 19 | 42% | 1 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Felipe Bunes | 7 of 14 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 17 of 35 | 48% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Felipe Bunes | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe Bunes | 10 of 25 | 40% | 8 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 60 of 96 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 9:22 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 35 of 87 | 40% | 41 of 95 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 23 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 29 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 33 of 81 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 11 of 30 | 36% | 6 of 20 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 35 of 87 | 40% | 26 of 75 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 31 of 76 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 8 of 26 | 30% | 4 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 28 of 75 | 37% | 21 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 67 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Estevam (-360), Aguilar (+285)
Round 1
A pair of fighters separated by about five months and five inches of height come to blows in the on-fire flyweight category. While he debuted with a win over Charles Johnson, inactivity has plagued Estevam (12-0, 1-0 UFC) as that victory came in November 2023 and he has not fought since. Since then, Aguilar (11-2, 3-1 UFC) has competed and prevailed on two separate occasions, giving him momentum leading up to their engagement. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes the sporting clap of hands from the fighters to get going. Aguilar says hello with a low kick, and he charges in with a looping left that allows him to close the distance. Estevam defends the throw setup and prevents Aguilar from tossing him, but the ensuing grappling results in Estevam somehow taking Aguilar’s back. The two jockey for position and threaten with submission setups, and Aguilar sells out for a takedown and winds up pulling Estevam on top of him instead. Estevam smothers from half guard, staying well busy enough to stave off Tognoni. The Brazilian fighter loops his foe’s legs beneath his to further trap him, but Aguilar still times an explosion to power back to his feet. Aguilar grabs hold of a guillotine choke and jumps for it, and he hooks his leg around the back but is unable to fasten the other. “Macapa” calmly works his way out of the sub and he remains on top, following Aguilar every time he tries to scramble. When Aguilar gets to his feet, Estevam has him from behind, and he hunts for a high back ride to drag his man down. Aguilar tries to shoot in, but Estevam controls him until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Round 2
Aguilar comes out of his corner like his hair is on fire, with a pair of looping hooks leading into a jump knee. Estevam catches the latter and tries to do something with it, but he lets it go and dives after a takedown. Aguilar is on his seat when defending it, with Estevam quick to lace the legs once more. Estevam sits up and the two slug it out from a seated position, with Aguilar’s back stuck against the wall as he spams elbows and punches with little on them. Estevam wrestles Aguilar back down and dings him with uppercuts, and every time he opens up, Aguilar fights to escape. Tognoni asks for more activity, and Aguilar stands up. Estevam chucks him back to the mat like a side of beef, and Aguilar climbs up, circles around and jumps for a guillotine choke. Estevam stuffs it and forces a 50/50 position, with Aguilar complaining that his glove is being grabbed. Estevam takes his foe’s back and clubs him in the side of the head, hitting a mat return when Aguilar fruitlessly works his way upright once more. Aguilar clings to any low-percentage move he can search for, while Estevam is running a wrestling clinic on him. Estevam wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he jumps from one side to the other to complete the maneuver. Aguilar turns to his stomach to prevent the submission from completing, and the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Round 3
Aguilar is the fast aggressor in the last round, putting hooks behind kicks behind more hooks. Estevam slows his foe down with a slew of front kicks, and Aguilar shrugs them off and charges with looping strikes before pursuing a takedown. Estevam shakes out of the tie-up, and Aguilar walks him down kicking him high and low. Aguilar punches his way into a level change, and Estevam stonewalls him and threatens with his own single. Aguilar stifles it, and the two break apart. Aguilar clubs his opponent with power punches that stun him, and he times a perfect knee when Estevam shoots on him. Aguilar lets him up and starts laying into the unbeaten fighter with massive swinging strikes. Aguilar throws himself off-balance, but he has done some solid damage and likely rocked Estevam on at least one occasion. Estevam keeps a stiff upper lip and is ready for counters, but Aguilar’s aggression is starting to give him issues. Estevam just dodges a huge left hook in time, and Aguilar sits down on a low kick and lunges forward with a jab. Aguilar punches his way into a takedown, where he puts Estevam on the mat but does not establish top control. Instead, Aguilar lets him up and punches him a few times, and he lets Estevam shoot so he can defend with a guillotine. Aguilar climbs on the back—an issue plaguing him several times tonight—and slides off almost immediately. Estevam relishes this opportunity so he can slow Aguilar down, with his sights likely more on surviving than actually trying to put Aguilar away. A few more lather-rinse-repeat takedowns and mat returns come from the Brazilian until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
The Official Result
Rafael Estevam def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Rafael Estevam, noting his high-pressure grappling and relentless takedowns. He acknowledges that Jesus Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but believes Estevam's offensive wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu defense will neutralize that threat. He trusts Estevam's cardio and thinks the odds are appropriate.
Big Brady picks Estevam by second-round submission, citing his dominant wrestling and ground game. Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but has 0% takedown defense and defensive holes. Estevam must be cautious of the guillotine but should get takedowns easily and eventually submit Aguilar.
Estevam is undefeated and this is a great opportunity for him to get back on track. He will get Aguilar's back and find a rear-naked choke finish within two rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Estevam over Jesus Aguilar, impressed by Estevam's grappling against Charles Johnson. He notes Aguilar has won in the UFC except for his debut loss, but believes Estevam's chain wrestling and ability to manipulate Aguilar's body will secure at least two rounds via grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 72 of 109 | 66% | 116 of 161 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 35 of 77 | 3 of 22 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 9:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 34 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 17 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 8 of 20 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 54 of 80 | 67% | 62 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 72 of 109 | 66% | 38 of 69 | 27 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 53 of 80 | 18 of 26 | 1 of 3 |
| Charles Johnson | 18 of 43 | 41% | 10 of 28 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 of 18 | 44% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 11 of 20 | 55% | 8 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 54 of 80 | 67% | 30 of 52 | 23 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 65 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 9 of 18 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rafael Estevam with low confidence, citing Charles Johnson's recent lack of urgency and tendency to not do enough to impress judges. He notes Estevam's high-pressure grappling and relentless takedown attempts, though his takedowns are sloppy. He expects a decision and thinks Estevam will edge it.
Big Brady thinks people overrate Charles Johnson, noting he's been taken down frequently by wrestlers like Cody Durden and Mohammad Kayev. He believes Estevam is a solid wrestler who will stick to Johnson like glue and grind out a decision. However, he acknowledges this is Estevam's toughest fight by far and the decision could be close due to damage vs control arguments. He's staying away from betting on this fight.
Cody picks Rafael Estevam, citing his wrestling and takedown ability. He notes that Charles Johnson gives up takedowns frequently. Estevam can chain wrestle and control Johnson. Cody also mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.
Estevam has the grappling advantage and cardio edge to control the fight. He will dictate the pace with relentless grappling and clinch control, neutralizing Johnson's volume striking. Estevam's takedown defense and get-ups are solid, but he gets pinned in bad spots. Estevam wins by decision, as he lacks finishing ability but can outwork Johnson.
Paul initially leans towards Estevam but switches to Charles Johnson as an underdog. He notes Johnson's excellent get-up game and cardio advantage. Paul thinks if Estevam's debut nerves or weight cut issues arise, Johnson can out-strike him. He admits it's a risky pick and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson over Rafael Estevam, noting that Estevam's Contender Series win came against a fighter with a padded record and that Estevam relied on top position after escaping submissions. He highlights Johnson's experience against tough UFC opponents like Muhammad Mokaev, where Johnson out-struck Mokaev but was out-grappled. He believes Johnson's takedown defense, cardio, and ability to break Estevam in the third round will lead to a win.
Felipe Bunes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 69 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 54 of 132 | 40% | 113 of 202 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 64 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 | |
| 2 | Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 42 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 29 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édgar Cháirez | 66 of 136 | 48% | 41 of 104 | 18 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 63 of 133 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Felipe Bunes | 54 of 132 | 40% | 44 of 115 | 5 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 52 of 129 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Édgar Cháirez | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Felipe Bunes | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Édgar Cháirez | 21 of 52 | 40% | 14 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 20 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe Bunes | 20 of 53 | 37% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Édgar Cháirez | 41 of 75 | 54% | 26 of 56 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Felipe Bunes | 29 of 66 | 43% | 26 of 58 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-300); Bunes (+250)
Round 1
Two flyweights who have struggled as of late will collide with hopes of gaining just a wisp of momentum in their speedy weight class. Chairez (12-6, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC) has the crowd on his side in a big way, while Bunes (14-8, 1-2 UFC) is showered in boos and looks to spoil their mood. Referee Marc Goddard is on top of things for as long as the match lasts, bearing witness to a glove touch that opens the fight up.
Bunes stands tall to open the fight, walking down the local favorite with his right hand firing. Chairez backs him off with his jab, but not for long as Bunes pushes the pace on him. Chairez drills the lead leg with a kick, and Bunes frowns, swings hard and shoots in on the hips for a takedown. Chairez defends the initial offering, leaning his head against the cage to keep himself on his feet. Bunes holds on from behind before speedily climbing onto the back to take it standing, and he locks down a body triangle. Bunes starts slugging away with his free left hand while Chairez holds the other to block a choke setup. Bunes elbows Chairez in the side and shoulder, and he is warned for leaning his arm on top of the cage.
Chairez hand-fights to protect his neck, and Bunes nearly snatches it up and is again fussed at for resting his arm on the cage. Fans in the building erupt with frustration as Bunes rests on the top of the cage, and the Brazilian hacks down with multiple unorthodox elbows to the top of the shoulder. Chairez looks confused that strikes are raining down from those angles and actually affecting him, but he is biding his time and hanging on without getting strangled. Bunes picks his elbows carefully so that he does not strike the mohawk line on the top of the head, and he lets loose with clubbing right hands before wrapping his arm around Chairez’ face. Chairez jumps to the ground to slap Bunes down on his back, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get going in this round, where Chairez fires off a chopping kick and slips away from a looping left hook. Bunes scores his own low kick, and he aims a stomp kick to the knee before ripping his shin to the body with his free leg. Chairez spins with a back fist that misses the mark, and he walks Bunes down and slugs him in the chin. Bunes fires back, doing enough damage to force Chairez to stop pressuring him for a moment. Bunes reaches out with a right hand, parrying a few jab offerings from his opponent as both men look for options. Chairez bangs a left hand off the guard and follows a right straight to the solar plexus. He then chains a few punches together, only for Bunes to meet him in the pocket with a trio of fists that knock him back.
Chairez resets and smacks Bunes with a spinning back fist, and Bunes has nothing to answer back with and keeps his guard up to defend another that Chairez fakes. Chairez digs a front kick to the torso and hand-fights to protect his mug, and he steps back to avoid a back fist aimed at his face. Chairez dips in an uppercut and a left hook, leading Bunes to strike him back heavily. Bunes headhunts, and Chairez’s head movement and elusiveness are keeping him from taking much damage this round. Bunes goes high with a kick, and Chairez tries to do the same as both men do not connect flush. Bunes gets rocked with a jab and gathers his thoughts to swing back, but he slips. Chairez walks directly into a turning back kick to the pectoral, and Bunes tosses out an inside thigh kick that goes high and cracks into the cup. Goddard calls time as Chairez winces and rubs his eye, which has some damage on it as well as blood leaks into his eye. Chairez bounces up and down and is ready to go in 45 seconds, and he wants to throw down and does just that. Chairez punches his way into a spin, and he knocks Bunes back a bit as the horn ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Round 3
The last round opens with jabs from both sides, and Chairez scores with his uppercut as Bunes asks for more. Chants for Chairez echo through the arena, but they are quickly silenced when Bunes shoots for and completes a takedown. Chairez kicks off and gets back up, and he intercepts Bunes with a spinning elbow. Bunes backpedals, and Chairez pours it on with a few right hands and a crisp uppercut. Bunes again waves him on, so Chairez does just that by blasting him with body shots. Bunes grits his teeth but is taking damage and not offering much back, and Chairez puts a low kick on him and a few punches to keep him guessing. Chairez rips a right hand upstairs, and Bunes has to back off and take a quick count of his teeth. Bunes jabs the body with a kick and motions that it’s time to brawl, but Chairez does not engage recklessly.
Chairez picks his shots, spinning with a back kick to the body. Bunes sticks him with a jab and backs him off, further bloodying up an already damaged Chairez. Chairez offers up his own power jabs, switching stances and waving his hands around to fluster the Brazilian. Chairez kicks to both legs and swats out a left hand twice, and Bunes slaps his chest to demand he bring it on. Chairez stays in kickboxing range, reaching out with his long left hand and barely blocking a high kick in time. Chairez drills his man in the eye socket with a left hand, and Bunes backpedals in a hurry to protect himself while claiming it was a poke, as Goddard calls for them to keep fighting. Chairez walks Bunes down and digs body shots to open up strike upstairs, and he pushes out a front kick to the sternum. Chairez spins with a wheel kick that slams into Bunes’ head, further knocking him around with two swarming punches, a jump knee and a charge that is stopped before he lands further as time is up. It could go either way, likely depending on how the second round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chairez (29-28 Chairez)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Bunes (29-28 Bunes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chairez (29-28 Chairez)
The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. Felipe Bunes via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Édgar Cháirez, describing him as a well-rounded fighter with good striking, takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Cháirez's toughness and quality losses to top fighters. He believes Cháirez is too long and tricky for Felipe Bunes, and expects him to win as long as he doesn't get caught in a submission.
Big Brady is high on Édgar Cháirez, praising his toughness, dangerous jiu-jitsu, and improved boxing. He notes Felipe Bunes has poor cardio (especially in elevation) and is dangerous early but likely to gas. Brady predicts Cháirez will hurt Bunes on the feet, Bunes will shoot a sloppy takedown, and Cháirez will snatch a submission, possibly a first-round club and sub.
Cody agrees with Paul, highlighting Cháirez's pace, durability, and altitude preparation. He sees Bunes as a prime candidate to fade due to his explosive but unsustainable style. He expects Cháirez to win as the fight progresses.
Connor also picks Cháirez but notes that Bunes is a creative striker who can find his timing and land shots. He points out that Bunes's wrestling is a weakness, but Cháirez doesn't wrestle much. However, Connor believes Cháirez's toughness and willingness to push the pace will earn him the win, though it could be a war.
Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
The host considers this a dog-or-pass fight. Cháirez is a heavy favorite at -347, but the odds feel too wide. He notes that Cháirez has power but slows down, while Bunes has volume but is older and not a finisher. The host would have to bet Bunes if betting, but expects him to lose.
James views Cháirez as the more well-rounded fighter with better striking, cardio, and durability. He believes Bunes' reckless style will lead to fatigue, allowing Cháirez to finish him. James predicts Cháirez wins inside the distance.
The host picks Édgar Cháirez inside the distance, expecting a second or third round finish. He notes Cháirez's Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu, and believes his cardio will outlast Bunes, who fades after the first round. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -200 rather than the chalky line on Cháirez.
Paul likes Cháirez's durability, training at altitude, and well-rounded game. He notes Bunes fades after the first round and has poor cardio. He expects Cháirez to take over in rounds 2 and 3 and is comfortable parlaying him.
The MMA Guru picks Édgar Cháirez, noting that he looked much better against Joshua Van than Felipe Bunes did. He describes Cháirez as a tricky fighter who is big for flyweight and has finishing potential, predicting a finish in the first two rounds. He also cites the Mexico City altitude advantage for Cháirez.
Zane picks Cháirez because he is the more consistent round-to-round danger and has an instinctive sense of where he stands in the fight. He notes that Bunes often starts slow and needs time to process, while Cháirez will increase aggression and take the fight to him. Zane also mentions that Cháirez is rangier and fights long, which could trouble Bunes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 33 of 70 | 47% | 128 of 204 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 10:42 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 38 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 47 of 83 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 69 of 95 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 33 of 70 | 47% | 22 of 50 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 |
| Felipe Bunes | 26 of 56 | 46% | 15 of 39 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 8 of 19 | 42% | 1 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Felipe Bunes | 7 of 14 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 17 of 35 | 48% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Felipe Bunes | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe Bunes | 10 of 25 | 40% | 8 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe Bunes | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Bunes | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jose Johnson | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe Bunes | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jose Johnson | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Felipe Bunes, emphasizing Jose Johnson's inability to defend takedowns. He notes that Bunes is a BJJ black belt with slick submissions and will likely get takedowns and control the fight. He mentions he bet on Bunes at +175 and the odds have since tightened. He expects Bunes to win via takedowns and submission threat.
Big Brady highlights Johnson's unreal power for a flyweight and his size (6'0"). He notes that opponents have success taking Johnson down, but Bunes may not have the cardio to wrestle for 15 minutes. If Bunes doesn't submit Johnson early, he will slow down, and Johnson's power and submission game carry late. Brady predicts Johnson wins by second-round knockout, though he mentions submission is also possible.
Cody picks Johnson but recommends live betting after the first round, expecting Bunes to gas. He notes Johnson's comfort off his back and Bunes's age and cardio issues. He believes Johnson will land meaningful shots in later rounds.
Daniel thinks Johnson's takedown defense and getup game are weak, and Bunes can have takedown success and possibly get a submission. He notes Johnson is tall for flyweight and has a range kickboxing game, but Bunes can surprise. He picks Bunes for the upset.
Johnson's length and reach (6' tall, 71-inch reach) will allow him to keep Bunes at distance, get into his striking groove, and pick him apart to win on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Johnson's takedown defense issues but Bunes's tendency to fade. He prefers to watch the live market rather than bet pre-fight. He sees Johnson's guard as crafty but not enough to scare Bunes.
The Guru picks Johnson, citing his height (6 feet) and reach (71.2 inches) at flyweight as a difficult puzzle. He notes Johnson's good scrambles and win over Jack Cartwright on the contender series. He dismisses Bunes as a poor prospect with losses and age (35). He acknowledges Johnson's losses to top competition but thinks he's talented enough to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 1 | 83 of 141 | 58% | 154 of 222 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 50 of 91 | 54% | 57 of 101 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 1 | 69 of 100 | 69% | 131 of 171 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Felipe Bunes | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 28 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 83 of 141 | 58% | 63 of 116 | 15 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 61 of 115 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 15 |
| Felipe Bunes | 50 of 91 | 54% | 29 of 64 | 11 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 49 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 14 of 41 | 34% | 7 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe Bunes | 29 of 54 | 53% | 14 of 35 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 69 of 100 | 69% | 56 of 86 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 74 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 15 |
| Felipe Bunes | 21 of 37 | 56% | 15 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-218), Bunes (+180)
Round 1
It’s showtime! The UFC is back, and the Apex is its home for its first card of the year. With no further introductions necessary, we get right into the action. Flyweights take center stage first as the surging Van (9-1, 2-0 UFC) welcomes the well-traveled Brazilian Bunes (13-6, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion. The former has won seven straight, while the latter claimed the LFA flyweight strap by punching out Yuma Horiuchi at the beginning of January. The referee for the first UFC bout of 2024 will be Mark Smith, and he clocks in the fight as the two men touch gloves. Van takes the middle of the cage first and ignores an inside leg kick as he tries to find his range. Bunes is a bit more jittery out of the gate, pawing out jabs and low kicks. Van advances and pushes out a front kick, only to be met by a slapping low kick on the outside. Bunes opens up with an overhand right, and Van retaliates and makes Bunes think twice about standing in the pocket and trading. Bunes lines up a right hand and moves to the side, and the two toss front kicks at the other. The Brazilian has a high kick bounce off the raised guard of his foe, and he backs off as Van lays into him with two heavy right hands. Bunes shakes it off and reaches out with a left that misses and a right that does not. Van blitzes, and part of a left hook finds its mark before Bunes is able to escape laterally. Bunes chambers and fires a gnarly right hand, and Van takes it flush and does not bat an eye. Both fighters let their hands go in a brief exchange, landing a few shots, and Bunes mixes things up with a step-in knee. Van throws back with a fury, and he finds himself suddenly defending a single-leg takedown from “Felipinho.” Bunes pushes Van back to the fence when he cannot secure the entry, and Van answers by splitting the uprights with a knee. Bunes drops to his knees in pain, and Smith calls the foul for the groin shot. Bunes stays down for over a minute as he tries to cough it out and recover, and after a minute and 45 seconds, he asks Smith to restart the fight on the feet instead of in the takedown position. The Brazilian picks up where he left off with a number of low kicks on the inside and out, and he weaves to the side as Van lobs bombs at him. Bunes stays on his bike, but he peppers the body with front kicks and those to the lead leg, and Van tanks them all while aiming heavy strikes over the top. Bunes pursues another single-leg takedown, and he slings Van to the canvas and lands in side control with 15 seconds left in the round. Bunes climbs into mount, and Van throws him over the top and shucks off an omoplata setup before the round comes to a close.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Round 2
The flyweights get right after it when they resume the action, and Van puts his foot on the gas. The Myanmar-born Van comes out swinging, and he catches Bunes with a few shots. As Van gets somewhat reckless, Bunes changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and he is stuffed before it goes anywhere and takes a number of elbows to the side of the dome. Bunes shoves Van back to the fencing and gets a body lock while stomping on Van’s toes, but Van decides he is sick of it and spins his man around. Van lays into Bunes with knees and body shots, and Bunes is taking some damage and shoots for a takedown. Van turns him around and wall-walks to get back upright. When he gets some space, Van looses a number of body shots to back the Brazilian to the fence, and he chases an escaping Bunes from one side of the cage to the other to continue throwing. Van elects to go for his own takedown, and he threatens with an unexpected leglock before bailing on it to smash Bunes in the face with a trio of elbows. Van sits up, not totally in Bunes’ guard, and he lands powerful punches from above. Van stands back and allows Bunes to get back up, so that they can trade. Van dings his man a few times, and when Bunes fires back, Van keeps him backed off and lands harder. Van digs several more body shots, and Bunes is wearing it but still in the fight as he spins with an inaccurate wheel kick. “Felipinho” rushes out for a desperate takedown, and Van pushes him away and slugs him in the face. Bunes does not stop swinging either, but his punches are far slower.
“The Fearless” fearlessly lasts Bunes with knees to the body and thunderous punches, until Bunes crumbles to the mat. Van does not take his foot off the accelerator, raining down punches and elbows furiously. As Van continues to clobber the former LFA champ with a flurry of ferocious fists, Smith has no choice but to step in to save Bunes from his own toughness.
This is a big win for Van, who earns his first stoppage in the Octagon and stamps himself as yet another young up-and-comer to watch in the talent-rich flyweight division.
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Felipe Bunes R2 4:31 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Joshua Van, citing his faster and more accurate striking, good scramble skills, and youth at 22. He notes that Van's takedown defense is just okay but believes his striking and scrambling will keep him out of trouble on the ground. He acknowledges Felipe Bunes' BJJ threat but thinks Van can avoid submissions. He placed a 1.5 unit bet on Van at -225 but won't parlay him due to being unproven and a lackluster last performance.
Big Brady is a big fan of Joshua Van, noting his rapid improvements and high volume striking. He believes Van's durability and activity will overwhelm Bunes, who may struggle to out-strike him. Brady sees Bunes' path to victory as either a knockout or grappling, but doubts his ability to finish Van. He predicts Van wins by decision.
Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume striking, and improvement in grappling. He notes that Van has shown the ability to adjust between rounds and has a huge gas tank. He believes Van's striking will be too much for Bunes, who is older and may not be able to take him down and hold him down.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joshua Van to continue his run, citing his high pace and boxing skills. He acknowledges Bunes's opportunistic finishing ability and danger on the ground, but thinks if the fight goes the distance, Van's striking output will be too much. Vreeland warns that Bunes is live for a finish, but Van's youth and athleticism should prevail.
James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
Joshua Van is a talented 22-year-old striker with fluid movement and improving takedown defense. He showed resilience in his last fight against Kevin Borjas, coming back from an early knockdown to win a decision. Felipe Bunes is a 34-year-old debutant who relies on striking but has been knocked out before. Van's slicker striking and defensive grappling should allow him to outpoint Bunes over three rounds. I expect Van to win by decision, as Bunes may struggle to land anything significant.
Paul picks Van, noting his impressive volume and ability to fight at a high pace. He mentions that Van's takedown defense and get-up game have improved, and that Bunes' best chance is on the ground, but Van is steadily improving. He believes Van will expose Bunes as just serviceable.
The MMA Guru picks Joshua Van, citing his superior technique, body work, and composure. He notes that Felipe Bunes has power but is reckless and was wobbled in his last fight. He predicts Van will use his jab, body shots, and then find the finish, likely by TKO in the late second or third round.
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