Career Averages - Ariane da Silva
Career Averages - Casey O'Neill
Ariane da Silva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 63 of 176 | 35% | 65 of 178 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 143 of 222 | 64% | 147 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 0 | 46 of 65 | 70% | 48 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 19 of 59 | 32% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 42 of 64 | 65% | 44 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 0 | 55 of 93 | 59% | 55 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 63 of 176 | 35% | 31 of 121 | 20 of 37 | 12 of 18 | 55 of 164 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 143 of 222 | 64% | 75 of 148 | 28 of 31 | 40 of 43 | 127 of 206 | 13 of 13 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 17 of 41 | 41% | 9 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 46 of 65 | 70% | 16 of 34 | 12 of 12 | 18 of 19 | 39 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 19 of 59 | 32% | 11 of 44 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 42 of 64 | 65% | 19 of 39 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 17 | 37 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 27 of 76 | 35% | 11 of 48 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 8 | 24 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 55 of 93 | 59% | 40 of 75 | 8 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 51 of 89 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Wang Cong but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Ariane Lipski's underrated striking and ability to make it competitive. He thinks Wang's power will add up over time and Lipski will become afraid to engage. He notes the odds are almost 4-to-1 and says he will likely avoid betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Wang Cong, citing her high-level striking and the fact that Ariane da Silva has been finished in five of her losses, four by KO. He thinks da Silva doesn't like getting hit and that Cong can finish her on the feet or by mixing in takedowns, as da Silva's ground game is suspect. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Wang Cong is expected to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. She will land more effective damage throughout the fight and chip away at Lipski to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Wang Cong, citing her superior kickboxing, power, and ability to finish. He notes Ariane da Silva has submission skills but lacks power and is reactionary. He predicts Wang Cong wins by TKO in the first round, dominating exchanges. He mentions Wang Cong's only loss was a fluke submission she would win 8 out of 10 times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 42 of 92 | 45% | 43 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 36 of 84 | 42% | 130 of 218 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 5:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 20 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 83 of 120 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 27 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 42 of 92 | 45% | 26 of 65 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 41 of 88 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 36 of 84 | 42% | 29 of 76 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 39 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 13 of 46 | 28% | 10 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 17 of 28 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 6 of 15 | 40% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident Jasmine wins, citing her superior wrestling and pressure. He disagrees with those who think Ariane da Silva is a bad matchup for Jasmine. He notes Ariane has improved but Jasmine is a better wrestler than Karini Silva, who outwrestled Ariane. He expects Jasmine to get takedowns and win, though he wishes the line were more affordable. He may add action as the week goes on.
Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but with some concern. He acknowledges that Ariane da Silva has improved her takedown defense significantly, stuffing many takedowns in recent fights. However, Brady believes Jasudavicius is a much better wrestler than those opponents and will get takedowns. He notes that if Jasudavicius can't get takedowns, she is in trouble on the feet, but he leans toward her wrestling winning out.
Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, expecting her to spam takedowns and rack up control time. He notes that Ariane Lipski has been taken down frequently in the past, and Jasudavicius's wrestling should be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges that Jasudavicius's striking is not elite but believes her grappling will be the difference.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to pace Ariane da Silva, but notes it's a pass at the betting line. He acknowledges da Silva's recent improvements in maturity and output, but believes Jasudavicius's relentless pace and pressure will be too much. Vreeland expects Jasudavicius to push the pace and potentially get a finish, though he's not confident enough to bet at -225.
Jasudavicius will put a grind on da Silva, put her in uncomfortable positions, chain wrestling attempts together, and win on the scorecards. Da Silva's defensive grappling improvements were against lower-level grapplers, and she struggled against more impressive grapplers like Jasudavicius.
Paul picks Ariane Lipski as an underdog, arguing that her takedown defense has improved significantly since joining American Top Team, stuffing 21 straight takedown attempts before facing Karine Silva. He believes Lipski is the better striker and can keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes that Jasudavicius struggled to takedown Tracy Cortez and was out struck in that fight.
The Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva, noting Jasudavicius's recent decent performances and size advantage. He questions da Silva's consistency and believes Jasudavicius's momentum and reach will carry her to a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 89 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 53 of 120 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 7:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 15 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 | |
| 2 | Karine Silva | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | |
| 3 | Karine Silva | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 15 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 42 of 81 | 51% | 12 of 37 | 22 of 29 | 8 of 15 | 31 of 66 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Ariane da Silva | 27 of 75 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 9 of 32 | 10 of 14 | 21 of 65 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 17 | 23% | 0 of 7 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Karine Silva | 9 of 18 | 50% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | |
| 3 | Karine Silva | 26 of 50 | 52% | 7 of 21 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 9 | 19 of 41 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 13 of 38 | 34% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.
Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.
Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.
Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.
Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 64 of 127 | 50% | 86 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 44 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 42 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 31 of 74 | 41% | 17 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 64 of 127 | 50% | 45 of 106 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 28 of 68 | 41% | 15 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 39 of 93 | 41% | 21 of 73 | 15 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 34 | 73% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.
Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.
Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.
The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.
Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.
The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 66 of 149 | 44% | 81 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 85 of 186 | 45% | 100 of 201 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 28 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 45 of 78 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 24 of 67 | 35% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 66 of 149 | 44% | 28 of 101 | 27 of 36 | 11 of 12 | 53 of 131 | 12 of 15 | 1 of 3 |
| Melissa Gatto | 85 of 186 | 45% | 39 of 117 | 34 of 50 | 12 of 19 | 70 of 165 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 16 of 49 | 32% | 3 of 30 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Melissa Gatto | 28 of 53 | 52% | 13 of 31 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 26 of 46 | 56% | 10 of 27 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Melissa Gatto | 33 of 66 | 50% | 11 of 37 | 17 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 23 of 52 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Melissa Gatto | 24 of 67 | 35% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.
Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.
Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.
Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.
Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.
The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 101 of 204 | 49% | 113 of 216 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 49 of 99 | 49% | 56 of 106 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 38 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 101 of 204 | 49% | 47 of 134 | 42 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 77 of 176 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 49 of 99 | 49% | 42 of 92 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 67 | 52% | 17 of 42 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 53 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 73 | 47% | 15 of 48 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 20 of 39 | 51% | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 31 of 64 | 48% | 15 of 44 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.
Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.
Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.
Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.
Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priscila Cachoeira | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Priscila Cachoeira | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priscila Cachoeira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Priscila Cachoeira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lipski (-195), Cachoeira (+165)
Round 1
This is another rescheduled fight from last week’s event, with both women moving up a division to keep the bout intact. After a rough start to her UFC tenure, Brazil’s Cachoeira is building momentum with three wins in her last four outings. A former KSW champ, Lipski has been up and down since signing with the Las Vegas-based promotion. Herb Dean is in charge of the contest. Lipski catches Cachoeira with a counter right. Cachoeira lands a right of her own. “Zombie Girl” moves forward to force the brawl she desires and Lipski obliges. That turns out to be the wrong decision, as a left hook from Cachoeira backs up “The Violence Queen.” Cachoeira forces the issue, landing more shots.
Lipski is firing back but leaving herself exposed, and eventually the onslaught from Cachoeira drops her opponent — puncutated by a right to the chin. Cachoeira smells blood, and a barrage of punches and hammerfists on the canvas on a defenseless Lipski brings the show to a close.
The Official Result
Priscila Cachoeira def. Ariane Lipski via TKO (Punches) R1 1:05
Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.
Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.
Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.
Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.
The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 2 | 87 of 194 | 44% | 116 of 233 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 47 of 123 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 44 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 1 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 1 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 87 of 194 | 44% | 27 of 106 | 53 of 73 | 7 of 15 | 64 of 157 | 15 of 23 | 8 of 14 |
| Mandy Böhm | 36 of 108 | 33% | 18 of 84 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 31 of 101 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 17 of 50 | 34% | 7 of 34 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 2 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 26 | 46% | 2 of 12 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 72 | 48% | 10 of 36 | 22 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 41 | 29% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 72 | 48% | 10 of 36 | 22 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 41 | 29% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.
Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.
Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.
Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.
Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.
The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.
Casey O'Neill - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.
Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.
Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.
Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.
Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.
The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.
Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.
Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 83 of 193 | 43% | 113 of 227 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 41 of 97 | 42% | 46 of 102 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 28 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 13 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 56 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 83 of 193 | 43% | 60 of 163 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 11 | 69 of 177 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 41 of 97 | 42% | 26 of 75 | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 94 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 62 | 40% | 19 of 51 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 34 of 77 | 44% | 26 of 68 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 13 of 31 | 41% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-162), O’Neill (+136)
Round 1
Once an uber-hot prospect at the women’s flyweight division, the excitement and momentum have cooled for O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 UFC), who comes into this fight as the crowd favorite despite her birth country being Scotland. While the Xtreme Couture product has lost her last two, Brazil’s Santos (8-1, 3-0 UFC) is flying high, winner of five straight including three in the Octagon. Taking charge of this bout will be referee Rich Mitchell, and he clocks the ladies in as they opt to touch gloves. O'Neill lashes out with an early low kick and punches her way into range, and she slips back to dodge counterpunches. O'Neill kicks the front leg again, only to be met with a left hook. Santos chips back at the front leg twice, with O'Neill trying to line up a right hand back her direction. Santos holds her arm out and swings with the other behind it, and she kicks and gets thrown to the floor. The two scramble right back to their feet, and Santos holds on with a standing guillotine choke to bully O'Neill to the fence. Santos presses hard against the cage wall, slipping around to take the back and attack a single from behind. O'Neill keeps her balance and knees her foe in the torso a few times, only to be lifted up with responsive knees. O'Neill pushes off of Santos’ face to separate, and she walks Santos down and connects with a trio of punches and a chopping calf kick. Santos clips her with a right hand over the top, and she lands flush with a few punches while O'Neill wants to slug it out with her. Santos kicks the body and scurries away to avoid any counters, and O'Neill marches her down and kicks her front leg. O'Neill wings a right hand, but a straight left is more accurate. O'Neill connects with three punches, forcing Santos to bounce off the wall. They both let their hands go, with O'Neill landing first and harder. O'Neill clubs her opponent with overhand rights as Santos tries to kick, and she gets knocked off-balance but throws back hard to make Santos bounce off the cage wall again. They land at the same time, and O'Neill tries to time one such meeting with a knee. Santos misses a jumping switch kick, and she has a spinning back fist blocked. O'Neill walks Santos down and punches her in the face a few more times until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 2
Gloves are briefly touched to begin Round 2, and O'Neill is the aggressor right from the start. She lands a right hand and a body kick, and Santos catches the latter and slings O'Neill to the mat. Santos grabs the glove to get up, and she is warned for the foul. O'Neill manages her way back to her feet, and Santos gloms onto her from behind looking to trip or suffocate her opponent. O'Neill twists and turns, but Santos will not give her an inch of space. O'Neill tries to turn the tables and elevate the Brazilian, and her power move results in Santos stumbling, allowing her to get away. O'Neill returns to her stalking pace, landing a right hand and blocking the responses. O'Neill plants three fists on the chin and a leg kick to follow, keeping Santos guessing by mixing up her offense just enough. Santos kicks her in the ribs and strafes to the side, and O'Neill meets her with an overhand right. Santos goes wide with a hook, allowing O'Neill to retaliate with a trio of speedy blows. O'Neill overswings her way into an accidental takedown setup, and she abandons it to knee Santos in the head repeatedly. Santos shells up and gets caught with punches that wrap around her raised guard before she scoots away. O'Neill times a right hand when Santos kicks her, and Santos is striking back but is beaten to the punch time and time again. Santos jabs and parries, trying for a looping right when O'Neill kicks at her but is out of range. Santos lands two punches, hops back and then puts two more punches on the Brazilian’s chin. A clinch results in O'Neill sneaking in a knee, and Santos breaks off before anything else can catch her. Santos lands once, and O'Neill hits her back three times right before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 3
Fists are touched, and the fight resumes almost exactly where it ended in the last round. O'Neill clubs Santos with a short combination, and Santos tries and fails to get her back. Santos jabs out and is met with counters, and she leaps forward to get off a right hand. The Brazilian jabs the body, and O'Neill walks her down and busts her in the chops with a series of punches. O'Neill loads up on power punches that knock Santos around, but Santos is tough as can be and wears them well. Santos misses with a right hand, allowing O'Neill to counter her with a power right. O'Neill strings together a few punches and a knee, and Santos is the slower of the two and almost never strikes first. O'Neill jabs high, low and then wings a right hand that gets around the guard. O'Neill allows Santos to come to her so she can meet her with harder blows, with effective right hands that continue to find their home. Punches are traded, and Santos suddenly does not like what is happening and she tries to take the fight down with an ill-advised head lock. O'Neill spins her around and counters a twister setup, resulting in her taking the Brazilian’s back with a quick body triangle set up. Santos hand-fights to prevent any choke from coming anywhere close, but she gets softened up with strikes from both sides. Santos is warned for grabbing inside of the glove, and Mitchell pauses the fight to tell her what is not allowed even though fighters are given instructions before every fight. Santos looks upset that she was called on it, and O'Neill hangs on after the restart to continue working. O'Neill wraps a rear-naked choke grip on the jaw and ends up with a face crank, and she thwacks Santos on the kidney with heel kicks until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
The Official Result
Casey O’Neill def. Luana Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.
Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.
The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.
Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 64 of 127 | 50% | 86 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 44 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 42 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 31 of 74 | 41% | 17 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 64 of 127 | 50% | 45 of 106 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 28 of 68 | 41% | 15 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 39 of 93 | 41% | 21 of 73 | 15 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 34 | 73% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.
Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.
Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.
The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.
Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.
The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 145 of 349 | 41% | 151 of 355 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 137 of 264 | 51% | 137 of 264 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 113 | 41% | 48 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 43 of 96 | 44% | 43 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 51 of 119 | 42% | 55 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 117 | 40% | 48 of 118 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 145 of 349 | 41% | 123 of 321 | 11 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 124 of 321 | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 137 of 264 | 51% | 108 of 226 | 24 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 129 of 254 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 113 | 41% | 37 of 101 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 108 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 43 of 96 | 44% | 35 of 85 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 41 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 51 of 119 | 42% | 44 of 109 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 46 of 112 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 36 of 70 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 117 | 40% | 42 of 111 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 101 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 37 of 71 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 79 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill but is not betting. He thinks O'Neill will come forward with volume and wrestling, but her takedown defense was exposed against Roxanne. He notes Jennifer Maia is well-rounded and tough, and could cause problems if she gets takedowns. He expects a close fight.
Big Brady picks O'Neill, noting Maia refuses to wrestle despite being a black belt. He believes if Maia went for takedowns she would win, but she won't. On the feet, O'Neill has higher output and will win a decision. He is not a big fan of O'Neill but likes her stylistically here.
Cody picks Maia as an underdog, citing the 'dog or pass' strategy in women's MMA. He notes O'Neill is young, green, and pushed too fast, while Maia is a veteran who fought for a title. He thinks Maia's experience and clinch strength could be factors, but acknowledges O'Neill's wrestling and top control are threats. He expects to lose but trusts the long-term underdog strategy.
Connor picks Maia because she is a tough, durable fighter who is difficult to take down off the cage. He notes that Maia has improved her boxing and aggression, landing left hooks and combinations. O'Neill relies on size and aggression but has poor defense and footwork. Connor thinks Maia's defensive wrestling and low center of gravity will neutralize O'Neill's takedowns. He also mentions that O'Neill's wild style leaves openings that Maia can exploit with straight punches.
Jacob is a big fan of Casey O'Neill and picks her to win a close decision. He thinks her experience against Roxanne prepared her for a similar pressure fighter in Maia. He notes O'Neill has a bad [__] in the octagon and will find a way to win in a close fight. He expects a 29-28 decision.
O'Neill is coming back from a devastating knee injury but is young and trains at a high level. Maia is a BJJ black belt who prefers striking, and her experience could be a factor. O'Neill's strength and aggression should allow her to grind out a decision, but there are many question marks. No betting interest at the current line.
Paul picks O'Neill but is hesitant. He notes O'Neill's grappling advantage and thinks she can win on volume and takedowns. However, he points out O'Neill didn't look great against Roxanne Modafferi and struggled early against Antonina Shevchenko. He thinks minus 180 is too high and prefers O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He says it will be dicey and your butt will be puckered until the final bell.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Casey O'Neill, going against the majority. He notes O'Neill looked suspect against Roxanne Modafferi and gets caught on the feet, while Maia has crisp boxing and a good submission game. Maia has gone the distance with Valentina Shevchenko and given problems to top fighters. He believes Maia is underrated and O'Neill is overhyped as a prospect.
Zane also picks Maia, noting that O'Neill is a prospect who has beaten lower-level competition. Maia is a gatekeeper who has only lost to title challengers. Zane highlights Maia's improved boxing and her ability to stuff takedowns, especially off the cage. He thinks O'Neill's takedowns are low-drive and will be neutralized. Zane also points out that O'Neill's defensive flaws will be exposed by Maia's steady output. He believes the odds should be reversed and that Maia is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 120 of 358 | 33% | 148 of 390 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 229 of 393 | 58% | 230 of 395 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 44 of 135 | 32% | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 72 of 130 | 55% | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 35 of 118 | 29% | 40 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 86 of 142 | 60% | 86 of 142 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 41 of 105 | 39% | 64 of 132 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 71 of 121 | 58% | 72 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 120 of 358 | 33% | 98 of 330 | 20 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 112 of 347 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 229 of 393 | 58% | 187 of 348 | 22 of 25 | 20 of 20 | 225 of 387 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 44 of 135 | 32% | 40 of 129 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 72 of 130 | 55% | 55 of 111 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 35 of 118 | 29% | 28 of 109 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 86 of 142 | 60% | 73 of 129 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 84 of 140 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 41 of 105 | 39% | 30 of 92 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 95 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 71 of 121 | 58% | 59 of 108 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 69 of 117 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.
Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.
Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.
O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.
Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 58 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 52 of 110 | 47% | 128 of 209 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 29 of 41 | 70% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 26 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 102 of 157 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 40 of 63 | 63% | 32 of 55 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 52 of 110 | 47% | 46 of 101 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 29 of 41 | 70% | 23 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 43 of 77 | 55% | 41 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 48 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.
Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.
I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.
Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 71 of 129 | 55% | 176 of 246 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 5:42 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 41 of 65 | 63% | 76 of 103 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 34 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 63 of 82 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 38 of 50 | 76% | 68 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 74 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 71 of 129 | 55% | 41 of 97 | 23 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 94 | 9 of 12 | 19 of 23 |
| Lara Procópio | 41 of 65 | 63% | 17 of 40 | 15 of 16 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 49 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 26 of 67 | 38% | 12 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
| Lara Procópio | 32 of 50 | 64% | 13 of 30 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 38 of 50 | 76% | 25 of 36 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 19 |
| Lara Procópio | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Lara Procópio | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lara Procópio, emphasizing her technical jiu-jitsu and high fight IQ. He compares Casey O'Neill to Paige VanZant, athletic but not technical. He believes Procópio can submit O'Neill or control her on the ground. He has Procópio in his DraftKings lineup and placed a bet on her to win by stoppage with decision no action.
Big Brady favors Procópio due to her well-rounded skills, better striking volume, superior cardio, and ground game. He notes O'Neill's striking defense is poor and her win over Shannon Dobson is overrated because Dobson had zero takedown defense. He expects Procópio to mix takedowns and win a decision.
Cody picks Procópio, citing her striking volume, grappling, and durability. He notes O'Neill's limited striking and reliance on takedowns, which Procópio can defend. Cody believes Procópio's well-rounded game will be too much for the undefeated but inexperienced O'Neill.
Daniel Levi picks Lara Procópio, expecting her to dominate the majority of the fight. He notes that she is a Nova União black belt with good performances against Carol Rosa and Molly McCann. However, he warns that she must be careful of O'Neill's submission attempts, as Molly McCann had a deep armbar on her. He predicts a decision win for Procópio.
Jacob picks Casey O'Neill, citing her pressure and toughness. He worries about O'Neill's grappling defense if she ends up on her back, but thinks she can win a decision. He does not have her in his lineup and would not bet on the fight. He sees it as a wrestling match that could go either way.
The host leans with Casey O'Neill as a slight underdog, citing her aggression, strength, and improving skills at Extreme Couture. He believes O'Neill's forward pressure and top control will be key, as Procópio may struggle to get takedowns. He notes O'Neill's ground-and-pound and active top game, while Procópio is a black belt but less threatening off her back. He predicts a decision win but with low conviction, acknowledging respected analysts are on Procópio.
Paul picks Procópio, noting her solid grappling and game plan against Molly McCann. He is concerned about O'Neill's grappling but believes Procópio's experience and skills will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects Lara Procópio to have success on the feet in the first round, but O'Neill's grappling and size advantage will take over in the later rounds. He notes O'Neill's youth (23) and undefeated record (6-0) as factors. He predicts a takedown at the end of round one, then O'Neill dominating on top in rounds two and three, possibly close to a 10-8 in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 49 of 68 | 72% | 132 of 183 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 7:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 32 of 38 | 84% | 57 of 67 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 3:53 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 75 of 116 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 16 of 28 | 57% | 9 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Shana Dobson | 49 of 68 | 72% | 44 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 14 of 26 | 53% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Shana Dobson | 32 of 38 | 84% | 28 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 16 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shana Dobson | 17 of 30 | 56% | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 |
Daniel Levi is skeptical of Casey O'Neill's competition level, calling her opponents 'soccer moms' and noting she was knocked out twice in amateur fights. He believes Shana Dobson, despite her poor record, has faced much better competition and has more experience. Levi thinks Dobson's confidence from her last win could carry her, and he sees O'Neill as overhyped. He picks Dobson for the upset, but admits it wouldn't surprise him if O'Neill wins.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.
Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.
Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.
The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.
Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.
The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.
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