UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 40
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 26
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
4.27 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.57 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Daniel Zellhuber
5.45 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
6.17 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.14 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Michael Johnson - Fight History
LOSS vs Drew Dober
KO R2 1:53 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Drew Dober 1 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 22 of 55 40% 9 of 33 7 of 14 6 of 8 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 27 of 76 35% 18 of 55 0 of 11 9 of 10 27 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 18 of 51 35% 9 of 31 0 of 11 9 of 9 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 9 of 25 36% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.

Dober by second round knockout
"Give me give me Dober as a dog with very little confidence, but I'll take Dober to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.

"Ang Michael Johnson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.

Odds: Johnson opened at -185, now -122; Dober opened at +160, now +102.
"I think I have to take Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.

"I'm going to go Drew Dober to come out here and get this upset after an early scare."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.

Fight ends via KO
"I am picking Michael Johnson to win the fight. The reason I'm picking him to win the fight is because he's faster than Drew Dober and hits probably just as hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.

Johnson by knockout
"I have to lean with Johnson and I think you have to make him the slight favorite because of the technical advantages that he has in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.

"Johnson either detonates one upside that chin or just puts in the better of volume over the course of two of those three rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.

KO in round two
"Drew Dober is gonna knock out Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.

Odds: Johnson -122, Dober +102.
"Me too. Unless Drew Dover hits his legendary lap drop."
UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.
"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision
"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout
"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 80 of 195 41% 81 of 196 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Daniel Zellhuber 0 52 of 182 28% 52 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 30 of 77 38% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 66 25% 17 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 80 of 195 41% 27 of 100 42 of 81 11 of 14 77 of 189 0 of 0 3 of 6
Daniel Zellhuber 52 of 182 28% 19 of 125 27 of 48 6 of 9 50 of 180 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 24 of 56 42% 4 of 22 15 of 28 5 of 6 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 1
Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 46 26% 2 of 23 7 of 17 3 of 6 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 77 38% 14 of 47 10 of 23 6 of 7 27 of 72 0 of 0 3 of 5
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 66 25% 7 of 51 9 of 14 1 of 1 16 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 26 of 62 41% 9 of 31 17 of 30 0 of 1 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 23 of 70 32% 10 of 51 11 of 17 2 of 2 22 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.

"Daniel Huber is the pick. I like Michael Johnson. Father time comes from everybody."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.

Zellhuber by second round knockout
"I think Zel Heber is going to put it on him throughout the fight and eventually either touch the chin or ... win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.

"I'm still picking Zellhuber for pace and because I do think that Johnson's form of choosiness is still not one that's safe."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.

knockout within two rounds
"I'm going with the Mexican fighter here as I think he can pick apart Johnson from distance and I think that will eventually line up a big knockout for him and I expect it to happen within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Zel Huba over Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.

"I'm going to take Zellhuber too. On a completely dumb predictive algorithm kind of level."
KO (punch) R2 2:03 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Ottman Azaitar 0 16 of 56 28% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 37 27% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 19 of 50 38% 13 of 37 3 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 46 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 16 of 56 28% 8 of 39 7 of 12 1 of 5 15 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 11 of 31 35% 6 of 21 3 of 6 2 of 4 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 37 27% 5 of 25 5 of 9 0 of 3 9 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 8 of 19 42% 7 of 16 0 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 6 of 19 31% 3 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.

Caution on betting due to Johnson's chin.
"Johnson is the better fighter everywhere outside of just raw power and even though he is old he should be able to control the Striking potentially get takedowns and ultimately win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.

fight doesn't go to distance
"I'm gonna pick Michael Johnson just because I have to because he's he's such he's so much better than Atman a zitar at everything but aitar has power and Michael Johnson loves to lose fights he's supposed to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.

"I'm going Michael Johnson as well I think Michael Johnson just beats him I I honestly do."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.

"I don't think he's doing MMA is a thing where he cares about winning MMA fights. It's just about taking them every now and then still to serve as a buffer to remind people that he's still a pro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.

"I'm gonna take opman aitar for the upset win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.

wins by KO in round 1 or early round 2
"I believe that will be the case here once again as he goes up against heavy haired opman Zer who should be able to crash the pocket consistently and end up finding a knockout Victory within the first round and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I like the unders in this fight Michael Johnson is my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to say Michael Johnson chins otoman aitar in about round two"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.

Azaitar opened at +186, Johnson at -214; Zane notes the odds are widening in Johnson's favor and he can't argue with it.
"I think it's a pretty straightforward Michael Johnson pick for me. 38 years be damned."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 61 of 112 54% 80 of 138 4 of 8 50% 0 0 6:02
Darrius Flowers 0 33 of 64 51% 52 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Darrius Flowers 0 20 of 36 55% 20 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 40 of 64 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:12
Darrius Flowers 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Michael Johnson 0 2 of 6 33% 8 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:44
Darrius Flowers 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 61 of 112 54% 16 of 47 36 of 52 9 of 13 58 of 109 0 of 0 3 of 3
Darrius Flowers 33 of 64 51% 10 of 31 9 of 12 14 of 21 29 of 60 1 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 32 of 60 53% 7 of 23 17 of 27 8 of 10 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darrius Flowers 20 of 36 55% 1 of 9 6 of 8 13 of 19 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 8 of 20 19 of 25 0 of 1 25 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 2
Darrius Flowers 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Darrius Flowers 6 of 8 75% 5 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darrius Flowers

Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.

"The pick has to be Darius for all of those factors."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.

second round submission
"I'm going to hesitantly pick Michael Johnson whenever you pick Michael Johnson you have to do it very hesitantly but I'm going to pick him to win this fight second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.

"Johnson's a guy that seems to have the superior skill set in pretty much every aspect of the game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.

"I had low confidence earlier when I originally started this matchup but the closer that we're getting to the fight I'm starting to think that Johnson is a no-brainer play here especially at that minus 125 line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I like Johnson I like Johnson to get a job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.

TKO in the second round or first round
"I'm going with Michael Johnson over Darius flowers... I reckon he's going to get it done by TKO in the second round or first round over Darius flowers."
KO (punch) R2 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 30 of 71 42% 17 of 46 10 of 21 3 of 4 29 of 70 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 32 of 58 55% 13 of 34 17 of 20 2 of 4 32 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 24 of 55 43% 13 of 37 8 of 14 3 of 4 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 12 of 29 13 of 14 2 of 3 27 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.

"I like Michael Johnson as The Underdog in this spot I fully expect this to be a dog fight it should be close but I don't want to hear any narrative about how old Michael Johnson is because Diego's even …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.

decision
"give me Michael Johnson to pull off the upset but trusting Michael Johnson with my money is not something I've done in a very long time"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.

"I'm just going to take Carlos Jagger Pharaoh but again how could you feel good about this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm just gonna pick him too. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.

"I'm gonna pick Carlos Diego because I think in both of their primes Diego wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.

"if Michael Johnson's striking defense and his durability holds up in this matchup as well as his takedown defense he should be able to style on Diego fejera in the Striking realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"Carlos Diego Ferreira at this point in the week will be my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Michael Johnson ... I think he's going to KO him as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm still gonna pick him. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson and I'm not yet willing to believe that he's just entirely erased that problem."
WIN vs Marc Diakiese
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 83 of 181 45% 83 of 181 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Marc Diakiese 0 55 of 127 43% 55 of 127 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 41 of 79 51% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 83 of 181 45% 37 of 116 37 of 55 9 of 10 79 of 171 3 of 7 1 of 3
Marc Diakiese 55 of 127 43% 21 of 80 24 of 31 10 of 16 52 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 12 of 41 29% 5 of 29 5 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 2
Marc Diakiese 23 of 38 60% 6 of 16 9 of 14 8 of 8 22 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 61 49% 14 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 4 30 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 40 27% 5 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 41 of 79 51% 18 of 48 19 of 27 4 of 4 38 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 1
Marc Diakiese 21 of 49 42% 10 of 35 10 of 11 1 of 3 19 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."
LOSS vs Jamie Mullarkey
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 1 66 of 190 34% 68 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Michael Johnson 0 96 of 217 44% 96 of 218 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 1 18 of 42 42% 20 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Michael Johnson 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 45 of 95 47% 45 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 30 of 91 32% 30 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Johnson 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 66 of 190 34% 42 of 147 22 of 41 2 of 2 58 of 179 4 of 5 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 96 of 217 44% 54 of 160 21 of 34 21 of 23 83 of 195 11 of 18 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 42 42% 12 of 33 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 20 of 53 37% 10 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 7 18 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 4
2 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 57 31% 11 of 44 6 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 45 of 95 47% 24 of 69 11 of 15 10 of 11 34 of 79 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 30 of 91 32% 19 of 70 11 of 21 0 of 0 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 31 of 69 44% 20 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.

Moneyline bet on Michael Johnson as underdog.
"I think he wins this fight... I think I'm going money line bet on michael johnson as well two to one underdog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.

"i'm going to take jamie malarkey to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.

"sign me up for jamie malarkey but again the price tag is not great and i wouldn't fault anybody for for banking on michael johnson's uh great footwork and huge power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
Michael Johnson

The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.

1 unit on Johnson moneyline +225. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -174. Parlay includes under 2.5 for this fight.
"I'm also going to go one unit on Michael Johnson plus 225. again a value play here in a sense I think he's the better Striker than malarkey I think he's faster than malarkey I think he can knock him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.

"i'm kind of i kind of want to bet the underdog here but i don't want to pull the trigger on michael johnson because the guy's an absolute flake"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.

finish in round three
"I got to go with Jamie Mullarkey here."
Daniel Zellhuber - Fight History
LOSS vs King Green
KO R2 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 78 21% 17 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 86 of 134 64% 100 of 148 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
King Green 0 41 of 64 64% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 6 of 32 18% 6 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 45 of 70 64% 59 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 78 21% 7 of 59 4 of 10 6 of 9 17 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 86 of 134 64% 39 of 72 21 of 29 26 of 33 71 of 119 5 of 5 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 11 of 46 23% 3 of 32 3 of 7 5 of 7 11 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 41 of 64 64% 10 of 23 15 of 19 16 of 22 36 of 59 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 6 of 32 18% 4 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 45 of 70 64% 29 of 49 6 of 10 10 of 11 35 of 60 0 of 0 10 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-500); Green (+375)

Round 1
“Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-3, 3-3 UFC) has appeared a bit gold-plated as of late with two straight losses on his ledger. He will be 13 years the younger of grizzled veteran Green (33-17-1, 1 NC; 14-12-1, 1 NC UFC), who never shies away from a firefight. Before they bang it out, referee Herb Dean clocks them in and the lightweights do not tap gloves together as Green has his mean mug in full display.
Green, hands down by his side as is his custom, swats away Zellhuber’s reaching lead hand a few times. Green steps back as Zellhuber lunges with an overhand right, and the Mexican stumbles, Green catches him, resets and times a takedown to put the two on the mat. Zellhuber spins around as the two wind back up on their feet, where Green starts chattering at him. Zellhuber backs Green to the fence but walks into a straight left hand, and Green follows with a one-two before Zellhuber can get to him. Zellhuber kicks his lead leg, and Green says, “please sir, may I have another.” We’re paraphrasing, but you get the gist. Green keeps goading Zellhuber on, and Zellhuber sells out for a few swings and ends up getting taken down again. Zellhuber once more turns about to escape the ground game and works back to his feet, and once more Green pounds him in the face with a power jab.
Green’s alternating stances and awkward footwork make Zellhuber struggle, and when he lets off offense, he lands it fairly often. Zellhuber is not sure how to proceed, winging a huge right hand in hopes of knocking Green out with one blow, but he does not land it. Green dings him with two punches and slips the counters, brushing off his shoulder mockingly. Zellhuber swings at him, and Green retreats and laughs at him. Zellhuber keeps giving chase, walking into a barrage of punches from “King” and landing some of his own. Green shakes his head and no-sells anything, signaling that nothing has landed flush on him, and he suddenly spins with a back kick that bangs into the shoulder. Green reaches out and slaps the younger man in the face, and Zellhuber answers by kicking him in the face. Zellhuber rips a left to the body, and Green doubles over and has to regain his poker face. Green gets back into his element, grooving back and forth and jamming Zellhuber up with short punches and a hard low kick. He stands before a motionless Zellhuber until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Green
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Green

Round 2
Zellhuber starts off the round aggressively, and Green’s head movement and footwork protect him from anything overtly harmful. Green shrugs off the big swings and uses Zellhuber’s offense against him, tackling the Mexican to the floor. Zellhuber wraps up his right leg around Green’s neck to set up an extremely rare and fairly new buggy choke, and Dean checks on Green a few times to make sure he’s still fine. Green gives a thumbs-up and briefly frees his neck from the clutch of Zellhuber’s right arm cinched with his right leg—look it up, because it’s not easy to describe setting up—but Zellhuber commits to it again. Green slowly, methodically wriggles his neck out of danger, and he pops back to his feet. Zellhuber hurries back after him, and Green wants to take him back down.
Zellhuber stops the effort this time, so Green pushes out front kicks and slugs his man in the face with a hard right hand. Green laughs off what flies his way and fires back heavy left hands, and he mixes in obnoxious kicks to the front leg that partially hyperextend the lead knee. Zellhuber has a left hand skim the top of Green’s head, and Green shakes his head and keeps doing his thing. Green does not swing for the fences with his strikes, and Zellhuber’s volume is low while he still tries to figure out a way in. Green hits any target that is open, including the temple, where he clubs Zellhuber and wobbles him. Zellhuber stumbles back on baby der legs, but he manages to get his footing while Green largely showboats in front of him.
Green wings two hooks that bounce off the nose that is now leaking, and he nails “Golden Boy” with a flush salvo of fiery fists. Zellhuber goes out and is snapped back online, and he hits the ground and is in a bad way. Green does not let him off the hook and proceeds to violently batter him on the sides of the head. As “King” continues his final bombardment, Dean saves the Mexican fighter from his own toughness and waves the fight off.
As if he knew he was going to do that the whole time, Green walks off, cool as a cucumber, and has words with the closest camera. At the age of 39, “King” Green can still put on performances like that, dropping Zellhuber’s UFC record below .500 with a vintage knockout.

The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Daniel Zellhuber R2 4:55 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo hesitantly picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his recent poor performance against Michael Johnson. He reasons that Zellhuber cannot possibly 'do nothing' two fights in a row, especially in Mexico. He also notes that King Green (Bobby Green) sometimes is not serious enough and may not score well with Mexican judges. He acknowledges the risk but believes Zellhuber's Mexican spirit and Green's showboating could lead to a Zellhuber win.

"I'm going to pick Zel Huber here because literally ... sometimes Bobby Green is not serious enough and he's too busy dancing around and showboating."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber but with strong hesitation, calling him the biggest 'ball dropper' in the UFC after losing as a heavy favorite twice. He notes Zellhuber should win against King Green, who struggled against Lance Gibson Jr., but is wary of another poor performance. He predicts a second-round knockout if Zellhuber shows up.

second round knockout
"So, give me Zel Huber minus 500. ... Zel Huber by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody strongly fades Zellhuber at -500, pointing out his recent losses and lack of finishing ability. He believes Green's pressure and durability will cause problems, and that Zellhuber's jab won't be enough. He recommends betting Green or passing.

"I'm out on that. So, uh, yeah, it's either a dog or pass here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor agrees with Zane, but notes that Zellhuber could still lose if he has a slow start and lets Green get comfortable. He points out that Green is crafty and can throw off any fighter with his unorthodox style. However, Connor believes Green's inability to handle fast range strikers and his age make Zellhuber the clear pick.

Green's craftiness; Zellhuber's slow starts; Green's losses to fast strikers
"But I can't pick Bobby green to win any fight anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel picks Daniel Zellhuber, praising his size, reach, sharp hands, and takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's chin and recovery, and believes he will outrange Prado and avoid ground-and-pound. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter, while Prado is still unproven at this level.

"I'm going Daniel Z Huber here"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is very confident in Zellhuber, calling him the safest bet on the card. He cites Zellhuber's youth (26 vs 39), massive reach advantage (6 inches), home advantage in Mexico City, and Green's lack of finishing ability. Green is a volume striker who is old and smaller, and will likely be outworked. The host plans to parlay Zellhuber with Moreno.

Parlaying him with Brandon Moreno.
"I think he's the safest bet on the card. I think he wins a very high percentage of the time. ... I'd be amazed if Zel Huba loses this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

James expects Zellhuber to rebound from his loss to Michael Johnson, citing Green's less dangerous boxing style. He believes Zellhuber's kicks, durability, and aggression will overwhelm Green, leading to a finish. James predicts Zellhuber wins inside the distance.

"I got Daniel Zel Huba to win this fight and semi redeem himself... Daniel Zel Huba inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host picks Daniel Zellhuber but is hesitant due to the -500 price and Zellhuber's recent losses. He notes Zellhuber's height and reach advantages and believes he can land the better strikes. However, he warns that Green is an educated striker and that Zellhuber's striking defense is suspect. He prefers the KO prop over the moneyline.

KO prop
"I'm still going to go with the Mexican here to show out in front of a hometown crowd and give me a Huber by knockout, but minus 500 is just way too wide."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul is leaning towards Green at +375, citing Zellhuber's inconsistency and lack of power. He notes Green's forward pressure and durability, and believes the price is too high on Zellhuber. He hasn't bet yet but is close to clicking Green.

"I know I'm a lot closer to click kick uh clicking green plus 375 than considering Zel Huber a safe minus500 parlay piece."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing Bobby Green's struggles against taller opponents and his habit of fighting with his hands down. He notes that Green had trouble with Lance Gibson Jr. and was destroyed by Jalin Turner. He predicts Zellhuber will TKO Green, as Green is open to shots and Zellhuber is a big favorite.

TKO
"I think Zelhuber's going to TKO him. ... I'm going to go with Daniel Zelhuber getting this one done by TKO over a Green pretty confidently."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber because Bobby Green is clearly past his prime at 39 and has lost his speed and defensive instincts. He notes that Green's style relies on head movement and baiting, which no longer works against younger fighters. Zellhuber has problems with discipline and can lose rounds, but Green's decline is too severe to pick him.

Green's age (39); Green's losses to Pimblett and Turner; Zellhuber's inconsistency; odds too wide
"I have to pick him. Oh yeah. Absolutely. Like I just, I don't think green, like he should not be fighting at this level anymore."
LOSS vs Michael Johnson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 80 of 195 41% 81 of 196 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Daniel Zellhuber 0 52 of 182 28% 52 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 30 of 77 38% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 66 25% 17 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 80 of 195 41% 27 of 100 42 of 81 11 of 14 77 of 189 0 of 0 3 of 6
Daniel Zellhuber 52 of 182 28% 19 of 125 27 of 48 6 of 9 50 of 180 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 24 of 56 42% 4 of 22 15 of 28 5 of 6 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 1
Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 46 26% 2 of 23 7 of 17 3 of 6 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 77 38% 14 of 47 10 of 23 6 of 7 27 of 72 0 of 0 3 of 5
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 66 25% 7 of 51 9 of 14 1 of 1 16 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 26 of 62 41% 9 of 31 17 of 30 0 of 1 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 23 of 70 32% 10 of 51 11 of 17 2 of 2 22 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.

"Daniel Huber is the pick. I like Michael Johnson. Father time comes from everybody."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.

Zellhuber by second round knockout
"I think Zel Heber is going to put it on him throughout the fight and eventually either touch the chin or ... win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.

"I'm still picking Zellhuber for pace and because I do think that Johnson's form of choosiness is still not one that's safe."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.

knockout within two rounds
"I'm going with the Mexican fighter here as I think he can pick apart Johnson from distance and I think that will eventually line up a big knockout for him and I expect it to happen within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Zel Huba over Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.

"I'm going to take Zellhuber too. On a completely dumb predictive algorithm kind of level."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 1 121 of 308 39% 121 of 308 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 156 of 345 45% 156 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 51 of 116 43% 51 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 40 of 89 44% 40 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Esteban Ribovics 1 43 of 116 37% 43 of 116 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 92 of 191 48% 92 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 121 of 308 39% 83 of 255 33 of 48 5 of 5 117 of 304 4 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 156 of 345 45% 103 of 276 32 of 48 21 of 21 154 of 342 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 27 of 76 35% 13 of 59 11 of 14 3 of 3 26 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 24 of 65 36% 7 of 41 9 of 16 8 of 8 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Esteban Ribovics 51 of 116 43% 33 of 93 16 of 21 2 of 2 50 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 40 of 89 44% 23 of 68 9 of 13 8 of 8 40 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 43 of 116 37% 37 of 103 6 of 13 0 of 0 41 of 114 2 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 92 of 191 48% 73 of 167 14 of 19 5 of 5 90 of 188 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He notes Ribovics is well-rounded with sneaky power, tight strikes, good takedowns, and solid BJJ. He sees this as a close fight possibly going to split decision, so he placed a quarter unit on Ribovics moneyline at +180 and plans to put another quarter on the plus 3.5 spread to cover a close decision loss. He is confident in the dog pick.

Placed 0.25 units on moneyline at +180; plans to also bet plus 3.5 spread.
"I am picking him to win here he's the dog and I'm picking him to win here... I placed a bet on eston Rix at plus 180"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady likes Zellhuber due to an 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking technique. He notes Ribovics has no takedown defense, so Zellhuber can mix in takedowns if needed. He expects a competitive fight but Zellhuber to win a decision.

"I like zel Huber here... I think it's going to be a war I think it's going to be fun I think it goes to decision give me zel H to get the decision win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Zellhuber because he likes his volume and ability to put pressure on opponents. He notes Zellhuber's only loss was to Trey Ogden, who grinded him out, but Ribovics is a power puncher who will let his hands fly, which plays into Zellhuber's strengths. He compares it to the Bahamondes vs Torres fight, favoring the taller, sharper striker.

Zellhuber by decision +135
"I don't really love the value on this one with zel Huber but I am gonna pick zel Huer mostly just because I like his volume and his ability to put it on somebody"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel leans with Daniel Zellhuber, praising his 8-inch reach advantage, kickboxing, and 94% takedown defense. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter but respects Ribovics' dangerous hands and get-up game. He is not fully convinced the line is right but goes with Zellhuber.

"I'm a lean with Danielle Z Huber I'm not convinced the line is right uh I'm not convinced but I don't say that uh with confidence"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Jeff Fox picks Daniel Zellhuber as well, stating he is slightly better everywhere. He acknowledges the odds aren't favorable but notes he is ignoring size and youth this time, having turned over a new leaf.

"I'm taking zel Huber as well I just I think he's slightly better um everywhere but yeah the odds really aren't in our favor low for for that"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Ribovics packs power but Zellhuber is very calm, technical, and disciplined with his striking approach. Expects Zellhuber to utilize his footwork and touch up Ribovics from distance, winning on the scorecards.

"zel Huber is very calm Technical and disciplined with the Striking approach I expect him to utilize his footwork and touch up rabix from distance and win this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber. He highlights Zellhuber's 8-inch reach advantage and his ability to keep distance and pick shots. He notes Ribovics has a 69-inch reach which is flyweight-level, and at 5'10" that's a disadvantage. He trusts Zellhuber's game plan under coach Eric Nicksick and his recent back-to-back good performances.

"I'm going to go with Daniel el Huber and uh he's had two good performances back to back so I'm going to trust him to get this one done"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 120 of 272 44% 120 of 272 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Francisco Prado 0 90 of 246 36% 91 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 27 of 60 45% 27 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 73 39% 29 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 50 of 110 45% 50 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 32 of 88 36% 33 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Zellhuber 0 43 of 102 42% 43 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 85 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 120 of 272 44% 87 of 228 25 of 36 8 of 8 117 of 268 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 90 of 246 36% 30 of 155 26 of 47 34 of 44 88 of 244 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 27 of 60 45% 14 of 41 9 of 15 4 of 4 27 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 29 of 73 39% 12 of 50 5 of 7 12 of 16 27 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 50 of 110 45% 42 of 100 8 of 10 0 of 0 48 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 32 of 88 36% 8 of 54 11 of 19 13 of 15 32 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Zellhuber 43 of 102 42% 31 of 87 8 of 11 4 of 4 42 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 29 of 85 34% 10 of 51 10 of 21 9 of 13 29 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Zellhuber as the more well-rounded fighter, citing his length, takedown defense, and ability to threaten submissions. He believes Zellhuber will avoid Prado's early storm and take over as Prado fades. He mentions a decision win is likely but also considers a no action bet.

decision no action bet (if Prado wins by KO, bet pays; if Zellhuber wins decision, refund)
"zel Huber should be able to avoid the early storm should be able to stay on the outside let PR exhaust himself and then take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He notes that Zellhuber is a hometown fighter from Mexico City and has a height and reach advantage. He likes Zellhuber's volume, cardio, and sneaky power and submission game. He is not high on Francisco Prado, who has fought lower-level competition. Brady expects the fight to be competitive but thinks Zellhuber will do enough to win a decision.

Fight goes to decision
"I like him to win the decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody picks Prado by KO in round 1, having bet that prop at +1300. He notes Zellhuber's chin is sketchy and he keeps his chin up, making him hittable. He thinks Prado's power could cause problems, though he admits Zellhuber has more intangibles. He is not touching the moneyline.

Prado by KO in round 1 (+1300)
"I'll pick per for the purpose of a pick I'll pick uh pra as well but uh but yeah I'm not going to be shocked if he loses on the money line"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host sees Zellhuber as an improving prospect with a rangy striking style and slick jiu-jitsu. He believes Zellhuber's footwork and straight shots will keep Prado from getting inside the pocket, and even if Prado tries to take it to the ground, his wrestling isn't good enough. He predicts Zellhuber will touch up Prado, possibly get a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

Possible late finish
"I think we see Z Huer touch up pra maybe get a late finish but I ultimately think zahu wins on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Paul picks Zellhuber, citing his superior volume, speed, length, and developing ground game. He notes Zellhuber's cast-iron chin and ability to take a punch to give back two or three. He believes Zellhuber's volume and range will overtake Prado, and he may mix in takedowns and grappling. He is backing Zellhuber.

"zel Huber should be the clear favorite which he is and uh I'm gonna be backing him"
Submission (anaconda choke) R2 3:26 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 36 of 101 35% 36 of 101 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Christos Giagos 0 38 of 82 46% 38 of 82 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 50 24% 12 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christos Giagos 0 26 of 52 50% 26 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 24 of 51 47% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Christos Giagos 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 36 of 101 35% 18 of 75 11 of 19 7 of 7 35 of 100 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christos Giagos 38 of 82 46% 25 of 63 3 of 7 10 of 12 36 of 79 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 50 24% 7 of 40 2 of 7 3 of 3 12 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christos Giagos 26 of 52 50% 16 of 37 2 of 6 8 of 9 26 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 24 of 51 47% 11 of 35 9 of 12 4 of 4 23 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christos Giagos 12 of 30 40% 9 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber as the more technical striker with good takedown defense. He acknowledges Christos Giagos has a path if he pressures and wrestles, but doubts Giagos will stick to a game plan. He is not betting this fight yet.

"Zell Huber's still going to be the pick he's too accurate of a striker and Gallegos does have a path but he's proven to us multiple times that these insanely tough"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Zellhuber, noting his improved performance after a poor debut. He expects Giagos to have early success but fade due to cardio issues, and Zellhuber to take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a submission in the second round, possibly via guillotine when Giagos shoots.

second round submission
"give me Daniel zellhuber to win this fight I'll say second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Christos Giagos

Cody leans toward Giagos but is hesitant due to cardio concerns. He notes Giagos is a front-runner with big power early but fades. He thinks Zellhuber may work his way back into the fight in later rounds. Cody prefers to get a better live price but ultimately picks Giagos for the pregame show.

"I am going to take ho I think he wins down the stretch but it'll be greasy early."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Levi has bet Zellhuber in all three UFC fights and is confident here. He attributes Zellhuber's debut loss to a 'debut stun' and believes he has recovered, as shown in his win over Lando Vannata. Levi sees Giagos as an athletic but limited fighter who fades down the stretch, while Zellhuber's length, creativity, and pressure should allow him to take over late and potentially get a finish.

bet at minus-220, now minus-260; expects line to go higher
"I'm going doniozo Hoover here to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zellhuber has excellent footwork, range management, and volume striking, as shown in his win over Lando Vannata. Giagos is a wrestler who may have early success but will likely gas out. Zellhuber should pick him apart in the later rounds and get a finish, possibly by submission or TKO. I expect Giagos to revert to wrestling, but Zellhuber's conditioning and striking will be too much.

"give me zel Huber by finish more so than his money line here as jagos could have some early success and make this fight closer than it should be but I expect zel Huber to go out there and to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Christos Giagos

Paul picks Giagos as a live underdog, citing his physicality, wrestling, and power. He notes that Zellhuber looked green in his UFC debut against Trey Ogden, getting outworked and taken down. Paul believes Giagos can land early shots and get takedowns, though cardio is a concern. He has circled this bet and plans to add it to his card.

"Christo giago... I don't really quite understand he's obviously you know he got submitted against Chago Moises but that's the top 10 top 15 guy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Christos Giagos, despite considering the underdog. He notes Zellhuber's reach advantage (77 inches) and dangerous striking. He criticizes Giagos's recent performance against Ricky Glenn, where Glenn looked old and slow, and notes Giagos has been dominated by others. He predicts Zellhuber may catch Giagos on the chin.

"I am going to go with Daniel zellhuber over Ricky Glenn"
WIN vs Lando Vannata
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 51 of 91 56% 51 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Lando Vannata 1 78 of 207 37% 84 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 23 73% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lando Vannata 1 40 of 91 43% 45 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:30
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Lando Vannata 0 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lando Vannata 0 16 of 61 26% 17 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 51 of 91 56% 20 of 41 12 of 24 19 of 26 49 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 2
Lando Vannata 78 of 207 37% 67 of 181 7 of 21 4 of 5 49 of 149 7 of 7 22 of 51
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 23 73% 5 of 6 2 of 4 10 of 13 17 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lando Vannata 40 of 91 43% 37 of 88 2 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 35 5 of 5 22 of 51
2 Daniel Zellhuber 22 of 36 61% 8 of 16 6 of 9 8 of 11 21 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 2
Lando Vannata 22 of 55 40% 17 of 41 3 of 11 2 of 3 22 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 32 37% 7 of 19 4 of 11 1 of 2 11 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lando Vannata 16 of 61 26% 13 of 52 2 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his gun-shy UFC debut, trusting his pre-UFC fights and 88% takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's length, power, and relentless striking pace when he's on. He expects a close, fast-paced fight but believes Zellhuber's talent will prevail over Lando's well-roundedness.

"I trust his 88 takedown defense I trust his pre-ufc fights to be more indicative of who he actually is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision, giving him one more chance after a poor debut. He notes Zellhuber's size and reach advantages, good takedown defense, and training at Extreme Couture. He is concerned about Zellhuber's previous performance but believes it was a one-off. He expects Zellhuber to bounce back and outpoint Vannata.

"I do like Zell Huber in this match if I'll give him one more chance to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Cody is unimpressed by Zellhuber's poor UFC debut and thinks Vannata's unorthodox style and grappling could cause problems. He notes Vannata is inconsistent but has the experience advantage. He picks Vannata as a dog.

"I'll be picking him for the purposes of this show"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Connor agrees, noting that Vannata's losses are to top fighters and that Zellhuber's step up on the contender series was a difficult decision. He believes Vannata's experience and ability to pour in strikes on openings will be key.

"Yeah, I don't really understand that. I guess people are really being down on Lando because of the dejour dan fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zellhuber's range and technical striking should pick apart Vannata, who struggles against crisp strikers. Vannata's unorthodox style can be countered by Zellhuber's length and clean shots. Zellhuber's takedown defense should be sufficient. Expect a knockout as Vannata has been clipped before. Zellhuber is a live underdog despite his last loss.

Zellhuber wins by knockout
"I think he'll be able to pick apart Landover nada from distance and I think he will possibly even find binocular here man."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Paul echoes Cody, noting Zellhuber's terrible performance against Trey Ogden. He thinks Vannata's unorthodox striking and scrambling will overwhelm the inexperienced Zellhuber. He takes the plus money.

"I got to take that plus money Lando or just pass all together Lando's the dog I'm gonna take the dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

The MMA Guru picks Lando Vannata as a plus-money underdog, citing his experience, tricky striking, and underrated grappling. He believes Vannata can outstrike Zellhuber, who had a lackluster UFC debut. He notes Zellhuber's youth and reach but thinks Vannata's veteran savvy and motivation will secure the win.

"I am going to side with the veteran in Lando vanata"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Zane picks Vannata because he has been doing this much longer than Zellhuber, who still looks like he's learning. He notes that Vannata's experience against top fighters gives him an edge, and that Zellhuber's game lacks fundamental connectivity. He also mentions that Vannata has been wrestling lately.

"This is the time where even if you're not going to be in control, this is when you've just been doing this way more than tell Hoover who doesn't look like he's been doing this a lot."
LOSS vs Trey Ogden
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Ogden 0 71 of 168 42% 72 of 169 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:38
Daniel Zellhuber 0 52 of 178 29% 52 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Ogden 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Trey Ogden 0 26 of 57 45% 27 of 58 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Daniel Zellhuber 0 23 of 64 35% 23 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trey Ogden 0 25 of 64 39% 25 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 78 21% 17 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Ogden 71 of 168 42% 22 of 109 7 of 13 42 of 46 71 of 168 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 52 of 178 29% 19 of 125 21 of 40 12 of 13 52 of 178 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Ogden 20 of 47 42% 1 of 24 1 of 3 18 of 20 20 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 36 33% 1 of 22 6 of 8 5 of 6 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trey Ogden 26 of 57 45% 6 of 33 4 of 6 16 of 18 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 23 of 64 35% 8 of 40 10 of 19 5 of 5 23 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Ogden 25 of 64 39% 15 of 52 2 of 4 8 of 8 25 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 78 21% 10 of 63 5 of 13 2 of 2 17 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Trey Ogden vs. Daniel Zellhuber
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-285), Ogden (+240)

Round 1
Like the Gravely-Basharat matchup from earlier, a fighter with at least 20 pro bouts will try to make a 12-0 fighter’s 0 go. In this instance, it is Glory MMA & Fitness’ Ogden (15-5, 0-1 UFC), who only finishes fights by submission, against unbeaten Mexican striker Zellhuber (12-0, 0-0 UFC). The third man in the cage for this lightweight tilt will be referee Herb Dean, and he sits back to observe a touch of gloves. There is a stalemate when the fight begins, with no strikes thrown for the first 20 seconds or so. Ogden punctuates the silence with a slapping kick to the outside of the newcomer’s leg, and he eventually tosses out one on the inside. The lightweights are exceedingly patient to engage, with the only strikes in a full minute three leg kicks. Zellhuber pitches a front kick up the middle that is swatted away, and Ogden use another low kick to find his range and do something at all. Ogden shoots from afar, and Zellhuber sees it coming and easily tosses him out of the way. Ogden gathers himself and uses a low kick, and he reaches out with a left hook. Zellhuber comes up short with a jab, and he is similarly inaccurate in several other strikes to differing targets. Ogden goes up high with a kick that slaps off the shoulder, and he peppers the lead leg with several kicks. Zellhuber comes out throwing hands, and Ogden is faster and intercepts him with a left hook. Zellhuber misses the chin by a matter of inches with a quick kick, and it slaps into the chest with emphasis. They both score single jabs, and Ogden stays active with leg kicks to both sides of the lead wheel of “Golden Boy.” Ogden pushes out multiple jabs, and the kicks from both fighters get blocked. Ogden chips and chops with low kicks, and the snoozer of a round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
The tentative second round starts just like the first ended, albeit without a glove touch, with neither man willing to engage with much of note. Ogden keeps using low kicks as his preferred weapon, and he snaps the head back with a counter hook when Zellhuber closes in on him. As Zellhuber advances again to walk through kicks, he gets poked in the eye. Dean gives him time to recover, but Zellhuber wants to keep going and pick things up. Ogden is the one fired up after the brief break, with a few quick combinations to string together. Zellhuber answers with his own short barrage of punches, but it is the leg kick he throws at its conclusion that has the greater effect. Zellhuber swings with a left hook, and Ogden times a takedown perfectly but cannot get in on the hips to ground the newcomer. Zellhuber thanks him for this attempt with a head kick, but it misses the mark by a great deal. Zellhuber sits down on a pair of punches, but they largely collide with the guard of “Samurai Ghost.” Zellhuber stretches out with a front kick to the body, but it is one and done as Ogden resets. Zellhuber pokes out a jab, and he gets his own body kicked along with three to his lead leg. Ogden swipes with a left hook, and they hand-fight in the center of the cage. Simultaneous jabs allow Zellhuber to reach first, and he chains the jab into a front kick. “Golden Boy” swings and misses, due to the level change and successful takedown landed by Ogden. Zellhuber pops back up, and Ogden takes his back standing. Ogden holds the position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zellhuber
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
Fists are bumped to start off the last round, and the fighters decide to pick up the pace a little by actually punching each other in succession. They trade straight punches before switching to kicks to the body, and one after the other they exchange blows. This slows when Zellhuber backs away and tries to use his range, but he cannot find it as his punches and kicks continually miss the mark. Ogden snipes him and closes the distance to land, only to scoot away before the counter. Zellhuber eats a left hook and tries to pay his man back, but Ogden slips it and shoots in for a double. Zellhuber stuffs it and winds up with a high kick, but it helplessly slaps off the blocking hand, a great distance from Ogden’s mug. Ogden sticks out several jabs, and Zellhuber’s pace falls to single strikes. Ogden has a shin skim off the liver, and he works the lead leg and ducks back as Zellhuber swings wildly. “Golden Boy” leaps in the air with a knee, and Ogden slides away and smacks Zellhuber with a left hand. Zellhuber walks into jabs and throws high-risk, low-reward strikes like a spinning kick, only to hit air. Ogden continues his effective jab to disrupt the brief charges of his opponent, and he sneaks a head kick up that is just blocked in time. “Samurai Ghost” punches the body and evades, and he doubles up on his effective jab to give Zellhuber fits. Zellhuber steps in with an elbow that misses where he aims it, and a second to follow is blocked. Ogden shoots for another takedown, and it is similarly stuffed. Zellhuber swings and misses with a flying knee, and a few punches and kicks from both men lead to an end in this de facto sparring match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (29-28 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)

The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Daniel Zellhuber via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Zellhuber, impressed by his dynamic striking, length, and takedown defense. He notes that Ogden is a grappler who sometimes chooses to strike, which would be a mistake against Zellhuber. Angelo placed a moneyline bet at -230 and notes the line has moved to -270, emphasizing the value of early betting for premium members.

Moneyline bet at -230.
"i like daniel to get the win here i do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady is confident in Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He praises Zellhuber as a well-rounded fighter with a significant reach advantage (5.5-6.5 inches) and superior striking. Brady criticizes Trey Ogden's performance against Jordan Levitt, where Ogden was outlanded 69-41 and failed to secure takedowns. He doubts Ogden can take down or submit the larger Zellhuber, who is a BJJ black belt. Brady predicts Zellhuber will pick Ogden apart on the feet for three rounds and win a 30-27 decision.

decision
"give me daniel zellhuber i'll say he wins by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Cody agrees, highlighting Zellhuber's altitude training, durability, and well-rounded skills. He thinks Ogden has no path to victory and that Zellhuber could finish inside the distance. He calls it a top-two ticket play.

Zellhuber inside the distance
"this feels to me top two ticket kind of play"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Levi is very high on Daniel Zellhuber, calling him one of the best prospects in a long time. He likes Zellhuber's composure, striking arsenal, and physical attributes (6'1", 77-inch reach). He notes Zellhuber's training at Tiger Muay Thai and with Eric Nicksick, and believes he will knock out Trey Ogden. He placed one unit at minus 245.

Bet one unit on Daniel Zellhuber moneyline at -245; predicts knockout
"I think he's gonna knock out trey ogden so i laid it minus 245 to win one unit"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Jacob picks Zellhuber, calling him the real deal with dynamic striking and Mexican toughness. He notes that Ogden is a wrestler who doesn't always wrestle, which is dangerous against a striker like Zellhuber. Jacob predicts a knockout, as Zellhuber's power and precision will find the mark. He worries slightly about Ogden's grappling but believes Zellhuber can handle it.

Predicts knockout finish.
"i think daniel finds that knockout shot in this matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zellhuber is the better striker and grappler, with length and speed advantages. He has been training at Xtreme Couture under Eric Nicksick, who is high on him. Ogden is a jack of all trades but not at UFC level. Zellhuber should win inside the distance; his inside distance prop at +110 is a better play than the moneyline. He is a solid parlay piece.

Zellhuber inside the distance at +110
"zellhuber should win this fight he should win it inside the distance you could get a better number on him inside the distance which is plus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Paul thinks Zellhuber is a legitimate prospect with good cardio, chin, and grappling. He notes Ogden looked poor against Jordan Leavitt and that Zellhuber has been training with top guys. He expects Zellhuber to steamroll Ogden.

"daniel zellhuber should absolutely steamroll them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber by decision. He thinks Zellhuber looks special with crisp striking, while Trey Ogden is underrated but didn't beat Jordan Leavitt, which is a benchmark. He notes Ogden has been submitted before and Zellhuber is young (23) with momentum from the Contender Series. He expects a decision win because Ogden is tough and has a good chin, so a KO is unlikely.

"i'm picking him to beat trey ogden by decision win"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.

"Daniel Huber is the pick. I like Michael Johnson. Father time comes from everybody."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.

Zellhuber by second round knockout
"I think Zel Heber is going to put it on him throughout the fight and eventually either touch the chin or ... win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.

"I'm still picking Zellhuber for pace and because I do think that Johnson's form of choosiness is still not one that's safe."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.

knockout within two rounds
"I'm going with the Mexican fighter here as I think he can pick apart Johnson from distance and I think that will eventually line up a big knockout for him and I expect it to happen within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Zel Huba over Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.

"I'm going to take Zellhuber too. On a completely dumb predictive algorithm kind of level."