UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 5"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78"
Weight 236 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ryan Spann
3.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.14 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Łukasz Brzeski
4.9 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.41 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Ryan Spann - Fight History
KO R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus Buchecha 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:09
Ryan Spann 1 15 of 27 55% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 1 of 6 16% 1 0 1:05
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 18 55% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:29
2 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Ryan Spann 1 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus Buchecha 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 15 of 27 55% 11 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 10 of 18 55% 7 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 10
2 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcus Almeida vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-150); Spann (+125)

Round 1
From one all-time great grappler in Vieira to another in “Buchecha” Almeida (5-2-1, 0-1-1 UFC) we go. The big man from Brazil is still seeking his first UFC victory, and he will be given the opportunity to do so at the expense of massive ex-light heavyweight Spann (23-11, 9-6 UFC). The Texan once weighed 205 pounds, and he bulked up to a sleek, svelte 264 pounds for this one, or about 11 pounds higher than the established heavyweight he is battling now. To maintain control of the big fellas, referee Herb Dean may need maximum effort. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Almeida slams a low kick home, which lands with a resounding thud. Spann bounces back and forth to swing a one-two, and Almeida pushes off his face as a finger scrapes Spann’s eye. Spann signals to Dean that he was fouled, and Dean tells him to fight on. From across the cage, Almeida sprints at Spann to take the fight down, and Spann counters with a brief guillotine choke before letting it go to scramble. With Almeida not quite taking the fight down, Spann hovers over him bludgeoning him with his fists. Almeida fights out of the worst of it and turns to his knees to power back to his feet, and he immediately searches for a level change. Almeida wrenches his foe to the floor, and Spann’s attempted guillotine falls apart seconds after he tries for it. Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke, and Spann pulls out of it and rips himself back up to his feet. Spann runs towards the cage to escape, not knowing if Almeida is hot on his heels, and he bounces off of it and takes a deep breath. Spann re-engages, and he pushes on the back of Almeida’s neck when Almeida pursues a takedown.
Spann drills his foe with an uppercut and controls Almeida to push him to his back for a moment, and when Almeida turns to his knees, Spann lets him flip over so he can knee him in the ribs. Spann backs away, and Almeida slowly lumbers his way back to his feet. Spann offers up a front kick on the jaw, and “Buchecha” drills his front leg with a kick that makes Spann take a very funny step. Almeida goes for a one-two to set up a double, and when Spann shoves him to the mat, the American turns to escape a sudden heel hook that came out of nowhere. Almeida scrambles to hunt for a takedown, and Spann uses a guillotine to threaten just long enough to bulldoze Almeida over. With Almeida on his knees, Spann connects with a strong knee to the side. Almeida pushes him off, and Spann stands up and just waits until the oddball round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
A glove touch kicks off the round, both men breathing a big hard after a frenetic five-round stretch. Almeida pushes out with his fingers outstretched, and Spann complains about a poke as Dean calls time and issues a very hard warning to “Buchecha.” They resume shortly thereafter, with Spann standing in the pocket ready to throw hands. Before he can, Almeida once more leads with his fingers out, and Dean shows him how to close his fist. Almeida swings after the break, aiming for a takedown after it. Spann is wise to it and uses his guillotine to not threaten the actual submission but control the posture well enough to force Almeida to think about another angle. Almeida turns his way out of it and works his way back to his feet, as Spann does not want to chill out in the guard. On his feet again, Almeida prods out a solid jab.
Spann works around the jab, swinging all his might behind a left hook and a follow-up straight right hand that smash about as cleanly on the jaw as one can. Almeida crumples to this back, eyes staring off into space and not remotely ready to defend anything else as he is all done.
Dean rushes between them to make sure Spann is not about to batter his doomed opponent further. Spann knows his work here is done and proceeds to dance around the cage, as he has now become the first fighter in MMA to finish “Buchecha.”

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Marcus Almeida R2 2:10 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann confidently, calling him the much better striker with better cage awareness and killer instinct. He notes that Marcus Buchecha needs to get the fight to the ground or pray that Spann fades, but Spann has power and takedown defense that should hold up. He dismisses Buchecha's UFC performances as unconvincing.

"Ryan Span is going to be the pick because of the power and hopefully the takedown defense holds up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha over Ryan Spann. He questions Spann's fight IQ and training habits, noting Spann is a light heavyweight moving up. He believes Buchecha's size and grappling will be too much, predicting a first-round submission as long as Buchecha fights smart.

Buchecha wins by first round submission
"Give me Buchecha by first round submission."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Ryan Spann

The host is tempted to bet Spann as a slight underdog because Buchecha has terrible cardio and poor striking defense, while Spann has knockout power and better cardio. However, Spann has bad fight IQ, making it risky. He notes Buchecha is awful and he has made money betting against him before. He says if Spann wins, it will likely be inside the distance, so the moneyline is better than the fight spread.

If Spann wins, likely inside distance; over/under too risky; prefers moneyline over fight spread
"Spann's a very tempting bet as a slight underdog, and I may bet him this weekend, but obviously whenever you bet Ryan Spann, you are taking a big risk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

James picks Buchecha, citing Spann's poor cardio and tendency to fade after round one. He believes Buchecha's durability, submission defense, and will to win will allow him to survive early danger and take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Marcus Betcha for that reason. ... I am confident on Betcha."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Buchecha is a BJJ legend but has struggled to get takedowns and has poor striking. Spann has knockout power and a sneaky guillotine, but he has mental lapses and often gets finished early. Buchecha should be able to get Spann to the ground and submit him early, but the -145 price is not great value.

fight finishes under 7.5 minutes
"I'm expecting an early finish here. No matter who ends up getting their hand raised, I think it's going to be Buches who's going to get Span to the ground. And I think from there he'll be able to get …"
Submission R1 2:47 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 66 of 111 59% 77 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:57
Ryan Spann 0 23 of 86 26% 24 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 49 55% 31 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Ryan Spann 0 12 of 33 36% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 39 of 62 62% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ryan Spann 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 111 59% 56 of 97 4 of 6 6 of 8 59 of 100 1 of 2 6 of 9
Ryan Spann 23 of 86 26% 11 of 70 5 of 9 7 of 7 22 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 49 55% 21 of 40 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ryan Spann 12 of 33 36% 5 of 23 2 of 5 5 of 5 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 39 of 62 62% 35 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 2 34 of 55 0 of 0 5 of 7
Ryan Spann 11 of 53 20% 6 of 47 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-166), Spann (+140)

Round 1
The preliminaries conclude with a heavyweight match that could provide a new contender when the dust settles. Cortes-Acosta (12-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five of six as a full-framed heavyweight, and his opponent Spann (22-10, 8-5 UFC) is introducing himself to the weight class by no longer cutting weight. The ex-205er weighed 249 pounds, so he will be adequately sized as he also stands an inch taller. Referee Mark Smith will be minding his P’s and Q’s as the big men throw down, and he stands by as they clap hands first. Spann strikes first with a heavy leg kick, and Smith tells the heavyweights to watch their extended fingers. Cortes-Acosta responds with his own low kick, but Spann’s has much more behind it. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a left hook, and a big overhand right of his bangs into Spann’s raised guard. Spann kicks high and is blocked, and he kicks low but is not. Cortes-Acosta wades in with winging punches, and Spann is well out of harm’s way in time. Spann hammers the front leg with a kick, and he counters one coming his way with a thudding overhand right that stuns the man from Dominican Republic. Cortes-Acosta leans forward and the two clash heads, and Smith calls time to make sure no damage resulted from it. He resumes them, and the fighters trade punches. Cortes-Acosta catches Spann on the temple with a blistering right hand, and he uses his weight to drag Spann to the fence. Spann breaks free and plunks Cortes-Acosta with an overhand right, but Cortes-Acosta’s uppercut shakes him up again. Both men swing their fists from down beneath their hips, getting full torque into it. They both lash out with low kicks, and Cortes-Acosta checks it and draws a funny reaction from his opponent. Spann comes up short with a front kick, and Cortes-Acosta chews up his front leg with another kick. Spann goes to the body with his front kick, and Cortes-Acosta winds up with bad intentions looping his haymakers at the former light heavyweight. They clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta drives punches into Spann until Spann breaks away and launches some of his own. Spann gets off a low kick and slips out of the way from “Salsa Boy,” and Cortes-Acosta measures his man with a jab and a right hand that hurts Spann again. Cortes-Acosta’s forward momentum results in a tie-up, using his higher weight to toss Spann to his back. Spann tries to upkick him in the legs a few times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The fighters lead off with a brief glove touch, and Spann is quick to fight behind his jab. Cortes-Acosta snaps his head back with a straight right hand, and he is met with a front kick to the belly. Cortes-Acosta jabs his man in the belly, but the fist goes low and bangs into Spann’s cup. Smith calls time, and Spann drops to his knees and takes a little under a minute to recover. They resume, and Cortes-Acosta flashes out his jab as Spann does the same. Cortes-Acosta scores a left and a right, and Spann indicates he was poked in the eye. Smith again pauses the action and checks the replay, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Spann jams the body with a kick, and he wings a huge right hand that Cortes-Acosta rolls with. Spann whiffs on another, and a third is met with a sharp jab from his foe. Spann is irritated about getting poked in the eye, and Smith issues a loud warning to Cortes-Acosta. Spann overthrows his punches, and the Dominican is beating him to the punch and clips the Fortis MMA fighter with his overhand right. Cortes-Acosta kicks the inner thigh, and the strike pounds square into his cup. Smith sighs heavily and calls time one more time. Spann crouches down and is not a happy camper after receiving these fouls, and Smith issues a final warning to Cortes-Acosta to keep things clean. The Texan takes more time than before to get his wind back, with Cortes-Acosta getting away with multiple fouls without a point deduction. The fighters get back to business after another 90-second break, and Spann returns to fighting behind his jab. Spann rifles off a calf kick, and Cortes-Acosta lands a powerful right hand across the forward bow. “Superman” dodges a check left hook but is unable to get away from the jab, and Cortes-Acosta loads up on his overhand right and sways the right direction to avoid one coming his direction. Cortes-Acosta prods with a jab until Spann bears down on him, and he uses the jab again to keep Spann honest. A one-two from Spann does not find its target, and he dances away from a similar pair of blows. Cortes-Acosta’s head movement and footwork keeps him safe, and he clubs Spann in the side of the dome. Spann spins with a back kick, and he shoots for a double that is met with 262 pounds of meat and several punches on the side of the head. Spann explodes back to his feet, and Cortes-Acosta is on him clubbing him with fists.
Spann swings back, still in trouble, and Cortes-Acosta sticks him with a jab and follows with a short left hook that levels Spann. When “Superman” hits the ground, Smith is already racing in towards the fighters, only to allow a few more punctuating hammerfists and punches to briefly shut Spann’s lights out.
Smith gets between them and allows Cortes-Acosta to reposition his foe’s legs who are tangled up with his, and Cortes-Acosta walks off to celebrate his handiwork. The ranked heavyweight calls for fights against either Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, and both are within his reach given his success in the division thus far.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann R2 4:48 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:35 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.

Not betting due to uncertainty
"I'm going to pick Ryan span here... I'm not betting on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.

first round knockout
"I'm going take a Ryan span here to win this fight by first round knockout it's hard to trust him I see why people are betting OSP but I I mean I think Ryan span should I mean Ryan span …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.

"OSP will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.

"I convinced you to pick Ryan's bond. Because OSP is... the fights that he's won are either against guys much smaller than him in the past or much slower than him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.

"I think ovince uh is going to complete the trifecta of the and be the forest MMA killer"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.

moneyline is very juicy at the current price
"I do believe same PR will do a good enough job in terms of avoiding the early finishing power of Ryan span and then chipping away at him in the second and third rounds where he should be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.

"OSP will be the pick but I like it less"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.

"I'm going to go with Ryan span you guys I've got a good feeling that he's going to KO oin St PR he's a big Power Striker he's very explosive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.

"Fine. I'll, I'll, you're gaslighting me right now. I'm quite sure I picked OSP. You're just lying to me, but you can pick him."
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
TKO (punches) R2 3:16 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 44 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 1 31 of 48 64% 49 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 1 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 15 of 38 39% 10 of 30 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 31 of 48 64% 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 0 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 3 of 8 37% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Guskov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Round 1
Herb Dean will oversee the co-main event. Both men show a lot of respect. Guskov throws an overhand right. Spann gets in on a takedown and then lands a knee to the groin. The fight is paused. They're put back in position oddly. Spann lands another low blow with a knee. Dean doesn't take a point despite two fouls in a row. They touch gloves as the fight continues. Spann lands an overhand right. Spann is able to get a takedown and lands in guard. Guskov gives up side control. Spann is able to get into mount and is looking to take the back. Guskov almost escapes, but Spann is able to get his hooks in and takes the back. Spann is looking for a rear-naked choke with a minute left. Guskov is flattened out, so Spann abandons the attempt and starts punching before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
It is a slow start to the second round as both men are hesitant about the other's power. Both men miss with hooks. Guskov hurts Spann with a right hand and then a left hook. Spann dives for a takedown to no avail. Spann fires back with a right hand of his own. Guskov eats a giant overhand right. Spann lands another looping punch. Guskov comes forward with straight punches and is beating Spann to the punch.
A huge uppercut hurts Spann. A right hand floors Spann, who then eats a series of vicious right hands on the ground. Herb Dean finally steps in, and this is over!

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Ryan Spann TKO (Punches); R2, 3:16.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"Ryan span is going to be the pick because of experience I don't know if I trust him enough to bet on him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

by KO (estimated +200)
"it's a doger pass type of spot for me Goose can or Goose can that may actually be he could be I don't think this guy's very good whatsoever but you're laying a A plus 170 him by knockout would …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

"I lean Ryan span but minus 190 minus 200 is not a lean price so I think it's a dogger pass situation but pure pick I'm going go Ryan span here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

"I do think that we'll see Ryan span dictate the pace really put the pressure on gusov and then eventually find that early finish here give me span and span by first round knock"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

"I got to go with span again he's just the better guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.

"I'm going with Ryan span over Bogdan gusov"
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 91 of 147 61% 91 of 147 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Ryan Spann 0 59 of 187 31% 62 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Smith 0 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ryan Spann 0 22 of 60 36% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Anthony Smith 0 45 of 69 65% 45 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 91 of 147 61% 44 of 92 12 of 15 35 of 40 90 of 146 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 59 of 187 31% 39 of 158 14 of 23 6 of 6 50 of 174 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 24 of 42 57% 9 of 25 1 of 1 14 of 16 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 10 of 41 24% 5 of 32 4 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Smith 22 of 36 61% 10 of 22 4 of 4 8 of 10 22 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 22 of 60 36% 16 of 52 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 47 0 of 0 9 of 13
3 Anthony Smith 45 of 69 65% 25 of 45 7 of 10 13 of 14 45 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 27 of 86 31% 18 of 74 5 of 8 4 of 4 27 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo believes Smith's best days are behind him, citing his recent loss to Johnny Walker where he was dropped and then headhunted. He thinks Spann will be too big, fast, and powerful for Smith. He has a full unit bet on Spann at -147, noting that the bet is more about Smith's decline than Spann's rise.

Full unit bet on Ryan Spann at -147
"I think that this is gonna be Ryan span all day I have a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady questions why this rematch is happening, noting Anthony Smith dominated the first fight. However, he believes Smith looks uninterested and has taken too much damage, citing his recent performances against Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He thinks Spann is dangerous everywhere and will knock out Smith in the first round, as Smith's durability is declining.

first round knockout
"give me Ryan span to knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Smith because he already beat Spann via submission and is getting plus money. He notes that Spann is a one-round fighter who fades under adversity, while Smith has better grappling and durability. Cody believes Smith can survive the early onslaught and take over later in the fight.

Smith by submission; under 1.5 rounds
"Smith beat him clean with the Striking last time and then finished the deal with the submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel picks Ryan Spann, reasoning that Spann is an athletic freak who can catch Smith early. He notes that Smith is coming off a leg break and looked terrible against Johnny Walker. He acknowledges that Smith dominated the first fight, but believes Spann's power and explosiveness give him a chance to finish early. He is not confident, calling it a lean.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span to catch him early and just get him out of there kind of a front running loaded Victory"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Anthony Smith

James picks Anthony Smith, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Smith hurt and submitted Spann in their first fight, and Spann's finishing equity drops after round one. He believes Smith is not as washed as some think and that the line is off. He also mentions Smith's historical durability and difficulty to submit.

"I'm all over the Smith side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The host recalls Smith's submission win over Spann in their first fight and believes Smith's veteran experience and confidence will allow him to replicate that performance. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and expects Smith to exchange in the pocket, hurt Spann, and submit him again. The host likes the under 1.5 rounds prop and finds Smith as a dog 'absolutely crazy'.

under 1.5 rounds
"Give me Smith as the dog which I find absolutely crazy considering this fight you know happened like two years ago not much has changed."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul initially picks Spann due to his recent wins and early explosiveness, but after Cody corrects him on the first fight result, he switches to Smith. However, his original pick was Spann, so we capture that. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and Smith is durable enough to survive.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'll pick span because he already won seems to have a bit of a grappling Edge early"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann in the rematch, believing Anthony Smith has declined physically and mentally. He notes Smith's poor physique and lack of fast-twitch fibers, comparing him to a fighter past his prime. He thinks Spann's scrambling and power will be enough, and that Smith won't land the same hook again. He predicts Spann will catch Smith and finish him, possibly in round two, leading to Smith's retirement.

Finish in round 2 predicted
"I'm gonna go Ryan span at some point catches him in this fight and puts him away maybe round two"
LOSS vs Nikita Krylov
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)

Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really truly how …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."
KO (punches) R1 1:20 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann (206.6: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)

Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.

"I'm gonna hold off on a pick here watch our Tuesday night breakdown maybe I'm more confident then"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.

Reyes by KO in round 1; not recommended for betting
"give me Dominic Reyes give me Dominic Reyes by knockout in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.

"I know this one's probably a bad call but I'll I'm spamming Underdog and I think on Ryan's fan... I just think on a card that I again agree with a lot of the favorites I feel like there's maybe …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.

"Dominic Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.

Predicts a knockout win for Reyes; odds mentioned: Reyes -225, Spann +190 at DraftKings
"I think Dominic Reyes gets back on track like the guys that have been beating Reyes are all Champions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.

over 1.5 rounds (-120)
"I do lean Reyes here I just can't get past or behind that minus 225 line considering his layoff"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.

"I'm gonna pick Dominic Reyes here I just think uh if this fight does get extended which a lot of spam fights do not Reyes should absolutely like lap lap em in uh in volume."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.

guillotine choke
"I think I'm gonna go over Ryan's bam"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.

"Unless the bond gets really lucky early, uh, Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
Łukasz Brzeski - Fight History
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Submission R1 2:47 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."
TKO (punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting he is a massive heavyweight with an 83-inch reach, decent takedown defense, and power. He believes Nzechukwu's physicality and power will overwhelm Brzeski, who is chinny and coming off a knockout loss. Angelo mentions Nzechukwu is not a true heavyweight but looked fine in his last fight. He considers the odds of -500 fair and might include Nzechukwu in a parlay.

Might throw in a parlay
"Kennedy should win here... minus 500 seems fair to me I might honestly throw that in a parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach, and power advantage. He notes Brzeski's poor record and suspect chin. He expects Nzechukwu to win by knockout, though he acknowledges heavyweight volatility.

"I think Kennedy kills him... he goes out there and romps him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu confidently, noting that Brzeski cannot take shots and has low output. He points out that Nzechukwu is huge and can build into a fight, and that Brzeski does not have the power or volume to hurt him early. Connor believes Nzechukwu's size and durability will be too much for Brzeski.

Connor says the odds are too wide but Brzeski is not good, so it doesn't matter.
"I don't think it's in such a cool even on a bad night... I think he can handle that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and skill advantage at heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and southpaw stance will be key, and expects a knockout given Brzeski's recent losses. He notes Nzechukwu's improved durability without the weight cut.

by KO
"I'm going to go Kennedy and Zetu to win the first fight of the night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu is never really super reliable as a -500 favorite, but I expect him to touch up Brzeski from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round.

knockout in rounds 2-3
"I expect him to touch up dry from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul picks Nzechukwu, citing his physical advantages and Brzeski's lack of skills. He notes Nzechukwu's move to heavyweight and improved comfort. He expects a dominant win, but warns against heavy betting due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"Kennedy Nzechukwu... I think he goes out there and romps him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach advantage, and skill difference on the feet. He thinks Nzechukwu will be bigger and more skilled than Brzeski, who is a smaller heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu will win and could go far in the division.

"I'm going with Kennedy as a chukwu this was supposed to be someone called talison toera versus Lucas Bersy however Kennedy Nuku steps in on short note"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane agrees, picking Nzechukwu. He notes that Brzeski is a low-output volume fighter who cannot take shots, and that Nzechukwu is a giant who can come back into fights. Zane believes Brzeski will not be able to do enough damage to stop Nzechukwu from finding his rhythm.

"Agreed that's really it."
LOSS vs Mick Parkin
KO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.

"Mick Parkin one of the most confident picks on the card this fight's going to suck though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.

"Give me Mick parin again probably by decision but who knows man maybe you see a new wrinkle to his game and he submits brusi late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.

"I'm gonna go with Mick Park and that come out here here and uh outwork him like all these other guys have"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.

"Parkin will have like a at least a 30 pound on fighting I probably like a 40 pound advantage over breski... make it ugly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

"Michael Parkin is going to beat up on Lucas berski chew up his legs mix in the grappling when he needs to as well because his grappling is really underrated"
WIN vs Valter Walker
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Łukasz Brzeski 0 33 of 67 49% 56 of 101 4 of 5 80% 0 1 7:19
Valter Walker 0 58 of 102 56% 135 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Łukasz Brzeski 0 12 of 18 66% 21 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:16
Valter Walker 0 16 of 27 59% 52 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Łukasz Brzeski 0 16 of 35 45% 17 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:58
Valter Walker 0 32 of 56 57% 39 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
3 Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 14 35% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 1 3:05
Valter Walker 0 10 of 19 52% 44 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Łukasz Brzeski 33 of 67 49% 19 of 50 6 of 8 8 of 9 23 of 53 2 of 5 8 of 9
Valter Walker 58 of 102 56% 27 of 70 16 of 17 15 of 15 55 of 96 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Łukasz Brzeski 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 7
Valter Walker 16 of 27 59% 4 of 15 4 of 4 8 of 8 16 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Łukasz Brzeski 16 of 35 45% 9 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 4 15 of 31 1 of 4 0 of 0
Valter Walker 32 of 56 57% 19 of 42 8 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 14 35% 1 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
Valter Walker 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo picks Valter Walker with high confidence, noting that Walker is massive (6'6") and a wrestler who should dominate by coming forward and ragdolling Łukasz Brzeski. He acknowledges that Walker's striking is miserable and he eats shots, but believes heavyweights are not used to a 6'6" Brazilian charging at them with wrestling. He expects the UFC to fast-track Walker.

"Valter is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady picks Valter Walker by decision, despite being unimpressed with Walker. He notes that Walker is huge, a solid wrestler, and can get fights to the mat. He cannot pick Łukasz Brzeski to win any UFC fight due to poor takedown defense and cardio. He expects a grinding decision with no finish.

win by decision
"give me Walker I'm actually taking Walker by the decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Cody also picks Walker, noting that Brzeski has been taken down 8 times by Karl Williams. He thinks Walker's wrestling and size advantage will be key, and that if Walker sticks to takedowns and top control, he should win. Cody is wary of Walker's UFC debut but believes the matchup favors him.

"I'll go against where the market has been moving and I'll pick volter Walker with you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Walker is a more complete fighter than his brother Johnny, with solid striking and underrated wrestling. He can take opponents down and grind them out. Brzeski is on a losing streak and has struggled against grapplers. Walker's size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight and win by decision.

Walker by decision
"I'm going to go Walker here I think he grinds this fight out over 15 minutes and gets his hand raised mainly with a grapple heavy Style on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Paul picks Walker but is hesitant due to question marks. He likes Walker's size, athleticism, and grappling, and notes Brzeski has been taken down repeatedly by wrestlers like Karl Williams. Paul thinks Walker can take Brzeski down, make him carry weight, and gas him out. He acknowledges Walker is unproven but sees a clear path to victory via wrestling and top control.

"I do have volter Walker... he is the pick 100% and there will be a play on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The host identifies Walker as Johnny Walker's brother, noting he is 6'6", 26 years old, with an 81.5-inch reach. He highlights Walker's dynamic striking (front kicks, head kicks, spinning backfists) and good double-leg takedowns. He recalls a clip of Walker grappling with Johnny Walker, showing good sweeps and butterfly guard. He acknowledges Walker has a chin but is confident in his skills.

"I'm going with wter Walker I don't know if you guys know who this guy is I'm about to tell you who he is"
KO (punches) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 15 of 45 33% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Łukasz Brzeski 0 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 15 of 45 33% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Łukasz Brzeski 0 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 45 33% 9 of 36 3 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 14 of 22 63% 1 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 12 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 45 33% 9 of 36 3 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 14 of 22 63% 1 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 12 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo is very confident in Waldo, citing his striking and athleticism being far ahead of Brzeski. He notes that Brzeski turns his head and reacts too much to strikes. The only concern is leg kicks, as Waldo has been hurt by them before, but he still believes Waldo wins. He includes Waldo in a two-fighter parlay with Bedoya.

Included in a two-fighter parlay with Rolando Bedoya
"I'm very confident in Waldo here I think Waldo gets the done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady notes that Waldo Cortes Acosta has holes in his game, including susceptibility to leg kicks and takedowns, but he doesn't trust Łukasz Brzeski's cardio, as Brzeski looks tired after 60 seconds. He expects a sloppy fight with Brzeski gassing early, allowing Acosta to land bigger shots and win a decision. He cautions against betting Acosta at heavy odds.

decision
"give me him to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Cody picks Brzeski as an underdog, noting his durability and volume striking. He thinks Cortes Acosta lacks power and Brzeski can outwork him. Cody also mentions the fight likely goes the distance and likes the over.

fight goes to decision; over 61.5 significant strikes for Cortes Acosta
"I'll take the underdog shot on verchowski"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism and baseball background. He notes that Brzeski is tough but lacks finishing upside. He mentions that Acosta has a good jab and better hands, though he is vulnerable to calf kicks. He thinks Acosta wins by striking and has a cardio edge. He is confident but notes it's heavyweight and anything can happen.

"I think Waldo is the better athlete I think he's got the more upside and I think there's a good bounce back fight for him so for that reason Mike I'm gonna pick him to win this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

James picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by decision, though he acknowledges Brzeski is the value side. He notes Acosta has decent offensive tools but poor defense and leg kick vulnerability. He sees Acosta's speed and athleticism as advantages, and expects him to outpoint Brzeski over three rounds.

"I'm picking Cortez to win I think he probably just wins another decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host defends Cortes Acosta, praising his conditioning, jab, and volume. He notes that Cortes Acosta lost his last fight due to leg kicks and takedowns from Marcos de Lima, but showed good cardio in the third round. The host criticizes Brzeski's takedown defense and regional competition, but acknowledges the line is wide and suggests waiting for a better price. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

"I still think that Cortez Acosta gets back to his winning ways gets back to doing what he does best and really putting volume and pressure on his opponents with his jab give me Cortez Acosta to win by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Cortes Acosta to win by decision, noting his volume striking and boxing. He likes the over on significant strikes for Cortes Acosta. Paul is not confident in the price but thinks Cortes Acosta should win.

Cortes Acosta by decision; over 61.5 significant strikes for Cortes Acosta
"Cortez by decision and then yeah over 61.5 significant strikes for Waldo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Łukasz Brzeski, citing Brzeski's lack of grappling and decline in physical shape after a failed drug test. He notes Acosta's size advantage (15-20 pounds) and better boxing with more sting on his shots. He acknowledges Acosta's vulnerability to leg kicks but doubts Brzeski will exploit it. He predicts Acosta's well-rounded boxing and size will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go Waldo Cortez Acosta I don't like that he doesn't deal with leg kicks well but I don't think bursky's going to expose that"
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 1 38 of 58 65% 120 of 168 8 of 13 61% 0 0 10:13
Łukasz Brzeski 0 26 of 46 56% 49 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 16 of 24 66% 19 of 27 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 13 of 23 56% 28 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Karl Williams 1 12 of 23 52% 36 of 59 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:42
Łukasz Brzeski 0 7 of 14 50% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Karl Williams 0 10 of 11 90% 65 of 82 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:17
Łukasz Brzeski 0 6 of 9 66% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 38 of 58 65% 31 of 50 4 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 34 2 of 5 14 of 19
Łukasz Brzeski 26 of 46 56% 19 of 39 5 of 5 2 of 2 22 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 16 of 24 66% 11 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 3 15 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 13 of 23 56% 10 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Karl Williams 12 of 23 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 1 of 2 5 of 10
Łukasz Brzeski 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Karl Williams 10 of 11 90% 9 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 6 of 9 66% 3 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.

"I'm going to be leaning Lucas here I think he's I'm gonna avoid some bets after all this is heavyweight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.

win by decision
"I'm leaning Carl Williams here by decision I think it's a good spot for him and I think he gets it done here by decision against Lucas breski"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.

"sign me up for bresky as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.

Brzeski opened at -170, now +182; Williams opened +145, now -226. Connor is surprised by the line movement favoring Williams.
"I'm taking the pole. I said that before you really delayed that. I'm taking Wukash."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.

"I think that Williams will more than likely grind this fight out over 15 minutes once again getting his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.

"Lucas brzewski is a live money Underdog this week for sure and and I will take him as the official selection"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.

by decision
"I'm going to trust in him to out hustle Carl Williams to a 29-28 decision after a rough start in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.

"I'm taking Wukash."
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 66 of 188 35% 66 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 118 of 273 43% 124 of 280 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 41 of 104 39% 47 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Martin Buday 0 19 of 55 34% 19 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 43 of 89 48% 43 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Martin Buday 0 22 of 70 31% 22 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 34 of 80 42% 34 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 66 of 188 35% 50 of 169 3 of 6 13 of 13 65 of 187 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 118 of 273 43% 49 of 182 51 of 69 18 of 22 116 of 268 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 25 of 63 39% 20 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 24 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 41 of 104 39% 19 of 74 16 of 21 6 of 9 39 of 99 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 19 of 55 34% 14 of 50 1 of 1 4 of 4 19 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 43 of 89 48% 18 of 59 15 of 20 10 of 10 43 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 22 of 70 31% 16 of 63 2 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 34 of 80 42% 12 of 49 20 of 28 2 of 3 34 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.

Will use Buday in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"ultimately i am going to go with bidet here because i think his power is gonna be the difference i don't like him at two to one odds so i'm not gonna have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.

second round finish
"i'm going to say he does win by second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.

"i gotta go with the the bigger of the heavyweights to get it done and that's the slovakian prospect"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.

"Give me the real heavyweight Martin Buday in that one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Martin Buday

The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.

Buday inside the distance -110; Buday round 2 +550 (on FanDuel).
"i went straight on the uh uh round two plus 550 on fanduel hit that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as moved to -175); looking for over 2.5 or fight goes to decision
"i kind of like the early the early er numbers on the over one and a half rounds that were available but now that it's jacked up to minus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.

third round TKO due to exhaustion
"i'm going to go over martin bidet third round tko mainly due to the exhaustion of lucas bursky"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."