Career Averages - Carli Judice
Career Averages - Nicolle Caliari
Carli Judice - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 0 | 36 of 122 | 29% | 46 of 138 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 79 of 185 | 42% | 104 of 214 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 37 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 35 of 89 | 39% | 36 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 13 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 36 of 122 | 29% | 24 of 100 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 29 of 109 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 79 of 185 | 42% | 53 of 143 | 20 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 75 of 180 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 18 of 40 | 45% | 11 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 17 of 58 | 29% | 12 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 35 of 89 | 39% | 26 of 72 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 35 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 9 of 39 | 23% | 6 of 31 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 26 of 56 | 46% | 16 of 42 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carli Judice, citing her superior striking, good volume, and takedown defense. He notes Juliana Miller has heart but lacks skill and hasn't improved. He mentions a potential prop bet on Miller plus 3.5 if she wins a round, but his clear pick is Judice.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice to defeat Juliana Miller, calling it a 'sanctioned murder.' He notes Miller has terrible striking defense (36%) and was pieced up by Luana Santos, who is not a good striker. He believes Judice is physically strong, has good takedown defense, and superior striking with phenomenal volume. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly by head kick or knee, and thinks it could be a mercy stoppage.
Cody thinks Judice's striking and athleticism will be too much for Miller. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and linear movement. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO.
Connor picks Judice, comparing her technical footwork to Duane Ludwig. He notes she shifts to cut angles and outmaneuver opponents, which has improved since her debut. Miller is tough but can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will easily outclass her.
James picks Carli Judice to win by knockout, citing her massive striking advantage over Miller. He notes that Miller is multiple levels below Judice on the feet and that her only hope is grappling, which Judice has defended well. James expects Judice to land a TKO.
Judice is a talented striker with good takedown defense, as shown in her recent wins. She should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Miller, who is mediocre on the feet. Miller will try to grapple, but Judice has improved her grappling defense and should get back to her feet. Expect a TKO in the second or third round as Miller fades.
Paul agrees, citing Judice's improvement and Miller's lack of wrestling. He thinks Miller's only path is takedowns, but Judice's striking will be too much. He expects Judice to win comfortably.
The MMA Guru believes Carli Judice is a much more technical fighter with a significant striking advantage over Juliana Miller. He notes that Judice arguably won her Contender Series fight and her UFC debut, and has since finished her last two opponents via TKO. He expects Judice to break Miller down with body work, specifically knees, front kicks, and teeps, leading to a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Judice emphatically, noting she has improved dramatically as a technician, especially her footwork. She runs circles around opponents and negates power disadvantages. Miller can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will tear her apart. Zane expects Judice to style on Miller.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 1 | 109 of 225 | 48% | 117 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 32 of 101 | 31% | 35 of 104 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 47 of 108 | 43% | 49 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 1 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 109 of 225 | 48% | 85 of 193 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 96 of 210 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 32 of 101 | 31% | 26 of 85 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 38 of 78 | 48% | 26 of 62 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 70 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 47 of 108 | 43% | 41 of 101 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 16 of 51 | 31% | 13 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 24 of 39 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-278), Caliari (+225)
Round 1
It’s time for another pay-per-view, this time with no divisional belt on top. While there may be a “BMF Title” exchange at night’s end, the promotion has already shown that it can be taken and bestowed to any match that needs a marketing boost. Additionally, its holder does not surrender it on a loss like a linear belt, making it a shiny, expensive trophy that tends to involve a celebrity draping it around the victor. That celebrity tonight will likely be Lil Wayne. Before all that, we have a bakers’ dozen matchups to plow through. Flyweights will be first to the cage, as head kick aficionado Judice (4-2, 1-1 UFC), who trains out of Headkicks MMA, battles Brazil’s Caliari (8-3, 0-1 UFC). The ladies will receive oversight from referee Bassel Mahgoub to start things off, and they bump gloves to seal the cage around them.
Caliari gets right to business, chasing after “Crispy” with a combination of punches and ending it with a head kick. She pitches a similar flurry when Judice backpedals to defend herself. Judice parries the worst of the attacks and jabs out with her lead fist and front kick. Caliari crashes forward with a left hand, and Judice responds with a body kick and an overhand left. Judice splits the guard with a second punch, and she steps in to stun Caliari with a knee. Caliari responds with a tackling takedown, dragging the American to her knees for a moment. Judice wall-walks to get upright despite Caliari clinging around her waist from behind, and she fights off a few mat return efforts while leaned on the cage. The fans are quick to express restlessness, letting the flyweights have it with boos until Judice breaks away. When they reset, Judice jams Caliari in the jaw with a sharp knee.
Caliari shakes it off and pursues a half-baked takedown, and Judice stops her subsequent head-and-arm throw to put Caliari on her face. Caliari now is the one having to work to her feet, and Judice frames off by pegging her with elbows and a knee. Caliari takes a few steps back, and Judice gives chase with a front kick and a barrage of fists. Caliari tries to respond with power strikes, reddening up Judice’s nose, but she finds herself dealing with the counters that quickly come. Caliari rushes after a takedown, and Judice slings her to the floor defensively and hovers over her before standing up. Caliari thinks about another, but she is stonewalled and takes jabs on the nose. Justice sticks and moves, walking into a big right hand but giving Caliari a clean left down the middle and following it with a powerful knee. Caliari ties her up, but Judice turns her around and holds her there to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 2
The flyweights bop fists to get going, where Judice is quick to fight behind her sharp jab. She targets the damaged right eye of the Brazilian with it, working on it to make it swell more with every blow. Caliari takes a body kick and tries to catch it to get a takedown, but Judice recoils her limb and keeps peppering the face with jabs and quick follow-ups. Judice slips to the left and tags Caliari in the swollen eye socket, and she is rarely missing her strikes while her volume easily triples that of her adversary. Judice is basically engaging in target practice, with Caliari offering little resistance more than a takedown shot. Judice shuts it down quickly and pushes Caliari to the wall, where she knees her in the midsection several times. Caliari races forward for a takedown, and Judice pushes her to the floor before Caliari can even go after a leg.
Caliari stands up and starts swinging, clipping “Crispy” at the end of a left hand. She fires off a low kick, and this draws a combination in response from Judice. Caliari is putting more behind her punches, while Judice is more than happy touching her, pop pop pop and she slides to the side. The thumping sounds that echo through the building are the ferocious knees that Judice is planting on the torso, and Caliari takes them flush without flinching. Judice potshots her swelling foe with ease, ducking the counters and otherwise playing matador when Caliari winds up. Judice fakes a knee and strings together a series of punches, while dancing out of the way of the inevitable counters. Judice lets go with a high kick that is blocked, and her punches fly through the guard and onto the Brazilian’s jaw. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 3
There is one last glove touch to commence the final frame, and Caliari is wide-eyed and aware of the oncoming fire that she is about to receive. This allows her to dodge the nastiest of what Judice hurls at her, but the sheer volume from the American makes it difficult to avoid everything. Caliari plants her feet and loops a big left hand at her foe, only for Judice to ignore it and dig a few body shots. Caliari crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and she manages to ground her foe for a second. Judice explodes to her feet and starts boxing up Caliari. The combinations flow freely from “Crispy,” who is roasting her opponent from punching range. She backs Caliari up to the fencing, practically hitting a 125-pound heavy bag at this point, and
she lines up a knee up the middle. This time, Caliari ducks down for a takedown shot, and the contact is immediate and devastating. For one wild moment, Judice channels her inner Hannibal Lecter, feasting on Caliari’s liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. Somewhere in the world, Jason DeLucia screams due to phantom pains from his three encounters against Bas Rutten in years past. Judice has to do little more but drive down two academic hammerfists that make Mahgoub hurry up and stop the fight.
Just like that, Judice has earned her fifth pro victory, with all five of them coming by knockout.
The Official Result
Carli Judice def. Nicolle Caliari R3 1:30 via TKO (Knee to the Body)
Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.
Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.
The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-380), Duben (+300)
Round 1
Of all the fight cards the UFC has ever held, UFC Fight Night 254 is certainly one of them. With 10 of the 26 combatants sporting UFC records above .500, this could be one of those shows where the cut list will reach five or more players. We kick things off in the women’s flyweight division with one of those types of matches where a fighter has their back against the wall. Unbeaten Venezuelan Duben (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) may have a bit of a gaudy record, but her first five wins came against ladies with a combined record of 0-0 (and a no contest). Standing in her way with a lot on the line will be Judice (3-2, 0-1 UFC), who earned her spot on the roster with a
loss
on the Contender Series. Fists are soon to fly, and before they do, referee Mark Smith checks them in. There is a quick fist bump that precedes the action. Judice takes to the center of the cage, and Duben walks right towards her and kicks her several times on the lead leg. Judice jabs her way out of an engagement, and she snaps up a question mark kick that surprises her opponent. The Venezuelan plants her feet and throws hands, and when she scores, she circles away. Judice plants her fist on her foe’s face, and she appears more technical than Duben as her strikes are straight while Duben’s are winging and a bit sloppy. Judice cracks Duben with a straight punch combo, and she makes Duben bounce off the fencing. Duben responds with a spinning back fist, and Judice blocks the worst of it and comes out swinging. Duben ricochets off the wall again, and she punches her way out of a tough situation. Judice resets, and she marches the newcomer down and chambers her left leg.
Her shin smashes square into the chin, and Duben goes down on her side in a heap. A few follow-up punches from “Crispy” are merely academic, as Smith is rushing in between them to stop the fight.
This is a heck of a way to start the night, with Duben ejected violently out of the ranks of the unbeaten while Judice concludes her losing streak with a bang. Headkicks MMA is her team, and she represented it well with that performance.
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The Official Result
Carli Judice
def.
Yuneisy Duben
R1 1:40 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Yuneisy Duben over Carli Judice. He acknowledges Judice is technically better but Duben's chaotic aggression and finishing ability sway him. He is concerned about Duben's cardio since she has never gone to a decision. He suggests an under bet as a possibility.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. He notes that Duben's level of competition is extremely low, with her opponents having almost no wins combined, and that her only notable win was a huge upset on the Contender Series where she was a +1000 underdog. In contrast, Judice's two UFC losses were competitive against solid fighters like Ernesta Kareckaite and Gabriella Fernandes. Brady believes Judice's volume, cardio, and top game will be too much for Duben, who has never seen a third round. He predicts a second-round TKO finish for Judice.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Judice is the superior striker with better combinations, footwork, and range management. He expects her to set up a trap and knock out Duben within two rounds.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
The MMA Guru picks Yuneisy Duben as an underdog, citing her undefeated record (6-0), training with Rosam Unas and Miranda Maverick, and her power to knock people out. He notes Carli Judice is rangy but lacks power in her punches, comparing her striking to early Yan Xiaonan but not at that level. He also mentions Duben's nasty KO win on the Contender Series and that she was sick three days before that fight, showing resilience. He admits he also picks her because she's attractive, but emphasizes she's well-rounded and dangerous.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 169 of 323 | 52% | 186 of 345 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 119 of 234 | 50% | 126 of 245 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 63 of 143 | 44% | 64 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 44 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 40 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 41 of 67 | 61% | 45 of 73 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 79 of 129 | 61% | 82 of 132 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 169 of 323 | 52% | 110 of 251 | 42 of 55 | 17 of 17 | 149 of 297 | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 119 of 234 | 50% | 89 of 198 | 21 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 95 of 200 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 63 of 143 | 44% | 41 of 114 | 14 of 21 | 8 of 8 | 55 of 133 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 43 of 91 | 47% | 36 of 81 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 77 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 27 of 51 | 52% | 19 of 40 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 41 of 67 | 61% | 32 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 51 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 79 of 129 | 61% | 50 of 97 | 22 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 71 of 119 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 35 of 76 | 46% | 21 of 59 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 33 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.
Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.
Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.
Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.
Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.
The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.
Nicolle Caliari - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shauna Bannon | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 158 of 183 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 50 of 68 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 9:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shauna Bannon | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 82 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 25 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 2 | Shauna Bannon | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 64 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 3 | Shauna Bannon | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shauna Bannon | 29 of 49 | 59% | 16 of 31 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 7 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 20 of 38 | 52% | 18 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shauna Bannon | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 6 of 9 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Shauna Bannon | 20 of 28 | 71% | 13 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Shauna Bannon | 7 of 14 | 50% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. They swing right away during a furious and brief exchange. Caliari closes distance and executes a throw, but Bannon is able to return to her feet. Not much later, Caliari executes another head-and-arm throw and lands inside full guard. Bannon is crafty from her back, as she neutralizes the Brazilian while looking for submission openings. Caliari stands briefly, but can’t clear the legs and ends up diving back into full guard. Caliari drives her forearm into her foe’s neck, while Bannon peppers her with annoying punches from her back. Caliari tires to stay busy with short punches to the ribs. Bannon creates a scramble with her guard but Caliari stands and drops a forceful right hand. Caliari shifts to a north-south position, and Bannon has her feet on the fence. Caliari looks to frame a kimura, but Bannon won’t allow the Brazilian to separate her hands. Calaria transitions to a back take just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
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Round 2
Caliari is aggressive, pressing forward with punches before forcing the clinch. Caliari clings to a leg, pulls Bannon off the cage and then secures a rear body lock. Caliari is able to plant Bannon on the canvas, again landing in her foe’s full guard. Caliari drops an elbow and dives back into guard. Bannon throws more short strikes from her back. Bannon is able to create space with her guard. Caliari stands and Hatley orders a standup. Bannon pressures forward, but Caliarri responds and tags her. Caliari catches a kick and shoves Bannon into the wire. Bannon lands a sharp body kick and Caliari drops low for a takedown. Bannon defends well and turns her opponent into the cage. Bannon lands a short elbow in the clinch. Caliari counters with a throw attempt, but Bannon is able to reverse into top position. She sets up in half guard, where she lands a short elbow. Bannon is heavy on top, but Caliari is active on bottom trying to create scrambles. Bannon floats on top and she ends the round with some solid ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Round 3
Bannon fires off a jab and a pair of low kicks. Bannon moves in with a 1-2 and moves away. Caliari turns up the aggression, flurrying with a short punching combination before shoving the Irishwoman into the fence. Caliari denies a hip toss from her foe and rolls into top position. An earlier punching flurry seems to have had a pernicious effect on Bannon’s face, as she has a serious mouse over her left eye. Caliari seems to be in control in half guard, applying pressure while landing short punches and elbows from above. The Brazilian is thinking about an arm triangle. Caliari applies the squeeze and the passes to the correct side to complete the choke. Bannon has no choice but to tap out. A successful strawweight debut for Caliari, who has her first UFC victory to boot.
The Official Result
Nicolle Caliari def. Shauna Bannon via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) R3 3:08
Angelo picks Nicolle Caliari, heavily criticizing Shauna Bannon's skills, especially her BJJ. He believes Caliari can get the fight to the ground and will have a massive advantage there. He calls Bannon one of the worst fighters on the roster and expects Caliari to win easily.
Big Brady picks Nicolle Caliari confidently, citing her wrestling and judo advantage over Shauna Bannon. He notes Bannon's poor takedown defense and lack of power, and expects Caliari to exploit this on the ground. He predicts a second-round submission, as Bannon has shown vulnerability to grappling.
Cody is confident in Nicolle Caliari, noting that Shauna Bannon has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Caliari is willing to shoot takedowns and has good grappling. Bannon is a point-based karate stylist who relies on distance, but Caliari can close the distance, take her down, and dominate on the ground. Cody expects Caliari to get her first UFC win.
Connor picks Caliari, agreeing with Zane. He notes Bannon is not an athlete and struggles to generate power, while Caliari is a physical powerhouse. Bannon's only wins are over other non-athletes, and she was dominated by Sam Hughes.
Caliari is a good offensive wrestler with decent cardio, and Bannon's takedown defense and ground game are very bad. Bannon will have the advantage on the feet but will likely spend most of the fight on the ground. Caliari should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet.
Lucrative James picks Nicolle Caliari, believing she can take Bannon down and dominate on the mat. He notes Bannon's vulnerability to wrestlers and Caliari's toughness and power. He predicts a decision win for Caliari, possibly with a submission.
The host believes Caliari's physicality and grappling will be the difference, as she can grind out takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant to trust the chalk on Caliari at -240, noting Bannon's striking style could cause problems. He predicts Caliari by decision but prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The host picks Montaño (Nicolle Caliari) over Shauna Bannon, citing Montaño's judo and physicality to drag the fight into uncomfortable positions for Bannon, leading to a decision win. He is surprised Montaño is such a heavy favorite but acknowledges the low level of both fighters.
Paul also picks Nicolle Caliari, noting that he will never back Shauna Bannon again after she was knocked down by Puya Tomar. He believes Caliari can mix in wrestling and keep it competitive on the feet, while Bannon's strikes lack power. He parlayed Caliari with Daniel Santos earlier in the week.
Zane picks Caliari because she is a physical powerhouse who should bully Bannon. Bannon is a non-athlete with no power, coming from a traditional martial arts background, and has lost to physical powerhouses. Caliari has fought tough competition and hung with them.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 1 | 109 of 225 | 48% | 117 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 32 of 101 | 31% | 35 of 104 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 47 of 108 | 43% | 49 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 1 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 109 of 225 | 48% | 85 of 193 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 96 of 210 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 32 of 101 | 31% | 26 of 85 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 38 of 78 | 48% | 26 of 62 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 70 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 47 of 108 | 43% | 41 of 101 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 16 of 51 | 31% | 13 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 24 of 39 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-278), Caliari (+225)
Round 1
It’s time for another pay-per-view, this time with no divisional belt on top. While there may be a “BMF Title” exchange at night’s end, the promotion has already shown that it can be taken and bestowed to any match that needs a marketing boost. Additionally, its holder does not surrender it on a loss like a linear belt, making it a shiny, expensive trophy that tends to involve a celebrity draping it around the victor. That celebrity tonight will likely be Lil Wayne. Before all that, we have a bakers’ dozen matchups to plow through. Flyweights will be first to the cage, as head kick aficionado Judice (4-2, 1-1 UFC), who trains out of Headkicks MMA, battles Brazil’s Caliari (8-3, 0-1 UFC). The ladies will receive oversight from referee Bassel Mahgoub to start things off, and they bump gloves to seal the cage around them.
Caliari gets right to business, chasing after “Crispy” with a combination of punches and ending it with a head kick. She pitches a similar flurry when Judice backpedals to defend herself. Judice parries the worst of the attacks and jabs out with her lead fist and front kick. Caliari crashes forward with a left hand, and Judice responds with a body kick and an overhand left. Judice splits the guard with a second punch, and she steps in to stun Caliari with a knee. Caliari responds with a tackling takedown, dragging the American to her knees for a moment. Judice wall-walks to get upright despite Caliari clinging around her waist from behind, and she fights off a few mat return efforts while leaned on the cage. The fans are quick to express restlessness, letting the flyweights have it with boos until Judice breaks away. When they reset, Judice jams Caliari in the jaw with a sharp knee.
Caliari shakes it off and pursues a half-baked takedown, and Judice stops her subsequent head-and-arm throw to put Caliari on her face. Caliari now is the one having to work to her feet, and Judice frames off by pegging her with elbows and a knee. Caliari takes a few steps back, and Judice gives chase with a front kick and a barrage of fists. Caliari tries to respond with power strikes, reddening up Judice’s nose, but she finds herself dealing with the counters that quickly come. Caliari rushes after a takedown, and Judice slings her to the floor defensively and hovers over her before standing up. Caliari thinks about another, but she is stonewalled and takes jabs on the nose. Justice sticks and moves, walking into a big right hand but giving Caliari a clean left down the middle and following it with a powerful knee. Caliari ties her up, but Judice turns her around and holds her there to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 2
The flyweights bop fists to get going, where Judice is quick to fight behind her sharp jab. She targets the damaged right eye of the Brazilian with it, working on it to make it swell more with every blow. Caliari takes a body kick and tries to catch it to get a takedown, but Judice recoils her limb and keeps peppering the face with jabs and quick follow-ups. Judice slips to the left and tags Caliari in the swollen eye socket, and she is rarely missing her strikes while her volume easily triples that of her adversary. Judice is basically engaging in target practice, with Caliari offering little resistance more than a takedown shot. Judice shuts it down quickly and pushes Caliari to the wall, where she knees her in the midsection several times. Caliari races forward for a takedown, and Judice pushes her to the floor before Caliari can even go after a leg.
Caliari stands up and starts swinging, clipping “Crispy” at the end of a left hand. She fires off a low kick, and this draws a combination in response from Judice. Caliari is putting more behind her punches, while Judice is more than happy touching her, pop pop pop and she slides to the side. The thumping sounds that echo through the building are the ferocious knees that Judice is planting on the torso, and Caliari takes them flush without flinching. Judice potshots her swelling foe with ease, ducking the counters and otherwise playing matador when Caliari winds up. Judice fakes a knee and strings together a series of punches, while dancing out of the way of the inevitable counters. Judice lets go with a high kick that is blocked, and her punches fly through the guard and onto the Brazilian’s jaw. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 3
There is one last glove touch to commence the final frame, and Caliari is wide-eyed and aware of the oncoming fire that she is about to receive. This allows her to dodge the nastiest of what Judice hurls at her, but the sheer volume from the American makes it difficult to avoid everything. Caliari plants her feet and loops a big left hand at her foe, only for Judice to ignore it and dig a few body shots. Caliari crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and she manages to ground her foe for a second. Judice explodes to her feet and starts boxing up Caliari. The combinations flow freely from “Crispy,” who is roasting her opponent from punching range. She backs Caliari up to the fencing, practically hitting a 125-pound heavy bag at this point, and
she lines up a knee up the middle. This time, Caliari ducks down for a takedown shot, and the contact is immediate and devastating. For one wild moment, Judice channels her inner Hannibal Lecter, feasting on Caliari’s liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. Somewhere in the world, Jason DeLucia screams due to phantom pains from his three encounters against Bas Rutten in years past. Judice has to do little more but drive down two academic hammerfists that make Mahgoub hurry up and stop the fight.
Just like that, Judice has earned her fifth pro victory, with all five of them coming by knockout.
The Official Result
Carli Judice def. Nicolle Caliari R3 1:30 via TKO (Knee to the Body)
Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.
Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.
The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 95 of 226 | 42% | 126 of 266 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 67 of 166 | 40% | 86 of 194 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 35 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 25 of 45 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 45 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 24 of 66 | 36% | 28 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 32 of 77 | 41% | 46 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 33 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 95 of 226 | 42% | 77 of 199 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 87 of 213 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 67 of 166 | 40% | 36 of 120 | 22 of 35 | 9 of 11 | 63 of 156 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 27 of 63 | 42% | 19 of 54 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 21 of 41 | 51% | 13 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 36 of 86 | 41% | 31 of 76 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 34 of 80 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 24 of 66 | 36% | 14 of 52 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 32 of 77 | 41% | 27 of 69 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 22 of 59 | 37% | 9 of 38 | 11 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two women with significantly different styles will clash as the prelims roll on at the 125-pound range. Despite losing her first UFC outing, Kareckaite (5-1-1, 0-1 UFC) comes in as a fairly heavy betting favorite against Brazilian finisher Caliari (8-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s first stint in the Octagon. The Lithuanian will have 15 minutes or less to prove that a bet on her is worthwhile, and Caliari knows just one mistake is all she needs to get the job done. Referee Kerry Hatley draws the charge for this matchup, one that opens up as the ladies clap hands. Kareckaite immediately try to take advantage of her significant reach advantage, pawing out jabs and getting met with an early leg kick. Kareckaite comes up just short with a one-two, and Caliari pushes her away and gets off a low kick. Kareckaite strikes her way into a clinch, and Caliari pulls away and gets caught with a few punches from the Lithuanian. Caliari fires back, and she connects with a few punches and chains them into a takedown attempt. Kareckaite stands upright and turns her around, but Caliari is singularly focused on the grappling. Caliari sneaks in a few uppercuts before deciding to separate, and she ducks a right hand to tag the longer woman with quick strikes. Kareckaite reaches her with a long right hand, and she strings several more together in rapid succession as Caliari’s eyes go wide. The Brazilian looks to slow things down with a takedown attempt, and Kareckaite bucks her way out of it and pops Caliari with a right hand. Caliari is ready to bang when the attempt fails, as she uses her fast hands to set up tackling takedown efforts. Caliari drags Kareckaite’s leg far away to force her to do a split, and she briefly grounds the Lithuanian as a result. Kareckaite pops right back up, and Caliari is tightly wrapped around her as they clinch. The two trade knees and hand-fight until they break apart. Caliari lands first, Kareckaite counters, and the former gives her something back to think about. Kareckaite rifles off long, straight punches, and a head kick is blocked but the front kick that follows is not. Kareckaite drills Caliari with a slew of punches until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Round 2
The ladies tap their hands together before getting going, and Kareckaite picks up where she leads off with long strikes. She does not keep a solid defense, as Caliari meets her with blistering elbows and short but effective shots in response. Caliari ducks a right hand to snap Kareckaite’s head back with a right hand, and this forces Kareckaite to clinch with her to blink out the surprisingly heavy blow. Caliari backs her foe off with her hands, and she gets smacked with a left hand and shoots in for her own takedown. Kareckaite stifles it, circles around in hopes of taking the back and settles for Caliari to roll to her back. The Brazilian clings to Kareckaite, attempting to control Kareckaite’s arms and get hold of a submission. Kareckaite escapes before a leglock materializes, and when she stands right in front of Caliari, the two trade leather. Kareckaite goes to the body to break things up, and Caliari follows suit and rips two left hands to the liver. Kareckaite takes the punches and hurls a few back, but Caliari’s appear more effective when they exchange. The Brazilian goes over the top with a kick, and her left hand continues to score on Kareckaite’s midsection. Kareckaite counters a leg kick with a right hand, and both women suffer damage to their noses as they connect one after the other. Caliari fails on a trip takedown, and she sells out for an uppercut and gets countered hard. Kareckaite strings four punches together before Caliari can pay her back, but Caliari is more than willing to trade violently. They take turns punching one another in the face, defense at a premium, and two hooks from Caliari get Kareckaite’s attention before the round ends with a failed takedown.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Round 3
After a speedy glove touch, the flyweights resume throwing hands. Caliari walks through the long, rangy punches to scoop up uppercuts. Caliari mixes up a handful of headshots with a couple to the body, and they go tit-for-tat as they appear to be enjoying the striking affair. Kareckaite puts her fist on the chin again and again, and she lets Caliari clinch with her so she can pound her with a knee. Caliari hammers her opponent with a left to the body, and Kareckaite is right there in front of her clubbing her with a right hand. Kareckaite stops a takedown attempt, partially thanks to a few fence grabs, and Caliari hooks a leg around hers to try to wrench her down. Caliari again strips the leg away like before, but Kareckaite gathers herself before having to deal with a split. The Lithuanian, breaking away from the clinch, does not stay away from Caliari for long. Caliari puts a few one-twos on the jaw and dives after a takedown, but the latter does not get there. Caliari keeps working the body, and a number of right hands have drawn some swelling on Kareckaite’s left eyebrow. Caliari fakes a takedown to deliver a knee to the body, and she times Kareckaite lifting her left up to tackle her to the canvas. Caliari is active when on top, but most of her strikes are blocked or deflected. Kareckaite slugs it out from her back, and the two beat on one another right until the match’s conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
The Official Result
Ernesta Kareckaite def. Nicolle Caliari via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her superior striking, footwork, and length. He notes that Nicolle Caliari's takedowns are mediocre, and while Ernesta's takedown defense is also mediocre, he expects the striking battle to favor Ernesta. He suggests that a plus 3.5 spread bet on Nicolle could be valuable if the odds are plus money, as he sees the fight going to a close decision. He does not expect a finish.
Big Brady disagrees with the odds, thinking this is a close fight. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's size, reach, cardio, and volume, but believes Caliari has the grappling advantage and can land bigger shots. He notes Caliari has improved her grappling since her contender series win and has power. He predicts Caliari wins by decision, using wrestling and grappling to win minutes.
Cody picks Kareckaitė but with low confidence, noting her high volume striking but poor takedown defense. He sees Caliari's submission threat but believes Kareckaitė's cardio and experience give her the edge. He advises passing on this fight.
Daniel notes Kareckaitė's length and volume will be a problem for the shorter Caliari, but Caliari could get takedowns and grind. He thinks Kareckaitė will pick her apart at range, but the -260 odds offer no value. He picks the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Kareckaitė's 6-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage will allow her to keep Caliari at the end of her punches, land more volume, and win on the scorecards. Both earned UFC contracts via the Contender Series last season.
Paul also picks Kareckaitė but is not confident. He notes her volume and physicality but acknowledges Caliari's submission game. He says he doesn't care for this fight and would rather pass.
The Guru picks Caliari, citing her Brazilian background, consistent finishes, and good submission skills. He notes Kareckaitė is a rangy kickboxer but thinks Caliari will get takedowns and a submission. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's youth (26) and win over Kari Judice but sides with Caliari's grappling.
Expert Picks (4)
Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.
Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.
The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.
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