UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 1"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Paulo Costa
6.26 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
6.2 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Roman Kopylov
4.59 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.18 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Paulo Costa - Fight History
TKO R3 1:23 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 34 of 70 48% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
Paulo Costa 1 55 of 80 68% 61 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 21 of 31 67% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
Paulo Costa 0 19 of 31 61% 23 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:49
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 1 15 of 18 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 34 of 70 48% 26 of 59 8 of 11 0 of 0 30 of 65 4 of 5 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 55 of 80 68% 27 of 44 16 of 23 12 of 13 44 of 66 6 of 7 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 7 of 26 26% 6 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 21 of 31 67% 8 of 14 5 of 9 8 of 8 14 of 22 2 of 2 5 of 7
2 Azamat Murzakanov 23 of 38 60% 16 of 30 7 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 19 of 31 61% 9 of 17 7 of 10 3 of 4 15 of 26 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 15 of 18 83% 10 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power, wrestling, and knockdowns in every UFC fight. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's recent good performance but is skeptical of Costa moving up in weight and his history of canceled fights. He expects Azamat to bring pressure and suggests a possible over 1.5 rounds bet.

over 1.5 rounds
"Azamat's going to be the pick. Maybe we get lucky enough for a one and a half round line because I do think this is going to go a little bit longer."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is impressed with Murzakanov's speed, power, takedown defense, and defensive striking. He notes that Murzakanov's cardio has improved and he carries power late. He doubts Paulo Costa's recent performances, citing losses to Vettori, Strickland, and Adesanya. He predicts Murzakanov wins by decision, possibly hurting Costa but not finishing him.

decision
"I like Merzikanov in this matchup... give me Azamat Merzikanov to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa as an underdog, believing he can weather Murzakanov's early storm and outwork him in later rounds. He notes Murzakanov's low volume and Costa's durability, expecting a decision win for Costa.

"I am actually going to take Paul Costa. Very small stakes, but I feel like he weathers the early storm and just outworks him down in rounds two and three."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Connor picks Murzakanov, citing Costa's inconsistency and lack of defensive awareness. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-shot knockout artist with excellent timing and defensive awareness, and that Costa's high-volume, low-defense style leaves him vulnerable. Connor also questions Costa's motivation and his move up to light heavyweight, suggesting that Murzakanov's calm, patient approach will allow him to land a clean shot. He compares Murzakanov to Fedor Emelianenko in terms of timing and cage craft.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I got to take, I got to take Merzicon off just wait, Costa..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel believes Murzakanov is being disrespected and sees him as a heavy hitter with good takedown defense. He thinks Costa gets discouraged in fights and that Murzakanov will box him up.

"I feel like people are disrespecting Mzakanov and I'm going to come out here and pick him and I think that he boxes up Paulo Costa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Vreeland picks Azamat Murzakanov because he believes Murzakanov is criminally underrated and has been disrespected by oddsmakers. He notes that Murzakanov has heavy hands and good wrestling, and that Costa's cardio and discipline are questionable. He also points out that Costa's move up to light heavyweight may not help his psyche or performance.

"I got Murzakanov here, and I think he's being disrespected again, coach."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The host thinks the odds are too aggressive favoring Murzakanov (implied probability 67%) and would cap the fight closer to 50/50. He believes Costa has better cardio and is the more complete striker, while Murzakanov is a better boxer with more power but fades after the first round. He prefers the underdog value on Costa but is not confident in a win.

Likes Costa +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision.
"If I were capping this fight personally, I would probably have it closer to 50/50. I don't really know why Merab Dvalishvili is such a big favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

James picks Murzakanov, citing his power, speed, and accuracy advantage over Costa, who he believes is on a downtrend and not suited for light heavyweight. He expects Murzakanov to hurt Costa early and possibly finish him.

"I did end up picking Azimat Makanov as my official pick. And I do think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Costa's durability and volume should be too much for Murzakanov, who relies heavily on knockout power. Murzakanov has been close to losing in several fights and his power may not phase Costa. Costa's athleticism and counter-striking can neutralize Murzakanov's blitzes. Costa looked sharp against Kopylov and can outpoint or even knock out Murzakanov. This is a winnable fight for Costa at plus money.

Costa wins by knockout
"I'm gonna go Costa here to pull off the upset. I think he ends up landing a big shot on Mzakonov."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul favors Murzakanov due to Costa's questionable commitment and Murzakanov's knockout power. He thinks Costa may be one foot in, one foot out, while Murzakanov's sole purpose is knocking dudes out.

"Makana is a side for me. What about you? Yeah, I'm gonna go with Paulo Costa..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa over Azamat Murzakanov. He is very confident, calling it a 'masterclass'. He believes Costa's speed, body kicks, and technical striking will be too much for Murzakanov, who he thinks is overrated and whose best days are behind him. He predicts a TKO in round two via body kick or similar.

"You're about to witness a Paulo Costa masterclass."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov, emphasizing Costa's psychological fragility and tendency to fade when pressured. He notes that Murzakanov does a lot of maintenance work—cutting off the cage, feinting, and being defensively aware—which will set up his knockout power. Zane also points out that Costa's only recent good performance was against Roman Kopylov, and that moving up to light heavyweight again raises questions about his commitment. He believes Murzakanov's timing and power will be too much for Costa, who is prone to getting hit and may not want to engage.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I think this may be one of those fights where that genuinely is the deciding factor. Yeah, because Marzakonov landing a clean shot on Paula Costa may not be so different from Israel, out of Sonia landing a clean shot …"
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 1 99 of 159 62% 102 of 162 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 48 of 104 46% 48 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 1 34 of 54 62% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Paulo Costa 0 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Paulo Costa 0 33 of 48 68% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 99 of 159 62% 34 of 89 41 of 46 24 of 24 87 of 141 3 of 3 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 48 of 104 46% 29 of 79 14 of 20 5 of 5 48 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 34 of 54 62% 13 of 33 7 of 7 14 of 14 25 of 39 0 of 0 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 11 of 27 40% 5 of 18 3 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 32 of 57 56% 10 of 31 18 of 22 4 of 4 31 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 5 of 8 2 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 33 of 48 68% 11 of 25 16 of 17 6 of 6 31 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 21 of 45 46% 15 of 39 6 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)

Round 1
Without a win since 2022, and no knockout victories in over seven years, Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC) is back in the Octagon after a while away planning on getting a little more green on his ledger. Standing in his way will be fellow knockout artist Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC), with the heavy-hitting middleweights combining for 23 strike stoppages in their 28 pro wins. Referee Herb Dean will don his proverbial hard hat and try to avoid any errant swings. The fighters do not touch gloves.
Costa wants to party immediately, surging into action with punches and kicks to put the Russian on his back foot. Kopylov responds with a left hand that reddens the face of his opponent, and he gets caught with a right hand to sustain a little damage on his mug as well. Costa scores a kick to the inner thigh, bouncing in and out and just brushing the ear with a right hand. “Borrachinha” whips a kick to the ribs after it, and the two men catch one another with single punches. Kopylov recovers first, bouncing in to kick Costa in the stomach. He then kicks the calf, checking one coming back his direction. Costa jabs and opens up with a left hook, with his right hand chambered back ready to go.
Costa works the inside and outside of his foe’s front leg, and Kopylov times one kick to go upstairs with a left hand. Costa drives a right hand to the sternum, and his head kick shakes the hair of the Russian without causing much damage otherwise. He does hammer Kopylov’s front leg with another calf kick, and he goes on the other side to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov drills the midsection with a fierce kick, parrying a high kick aimed at his dome and pushing Costa back with a pair of punches. Costa goes to the body multiple times, chaining a right hand behind it that dislodges Kopylov’s mouthpiece and dropping him to his knees. Costa hammers the hurt Russian with short but powerful punches, and Kopylov stands up and circles away while Dean collects his mouthpiece. Dean finds the right moment to give Kopylov his gumshield back, and Kopylov thanks him by landing once more on the Brazilian before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
As the second round begins, coach and commentator Din Thomas issues pungent criticisms towards Kopylov’s corner for their questionable advice about how Kopylov was succeeding. When the fighters get going in Round 2, Costa is quick to get in his groove, making Kopylov react every time he throws. This frees Costa up to pick his shots, measuring targets to the body and head when finding openings. The power of Costa makes Kopylov think twice about swinging more than once in a row, as he digs two kicks to the body. Costa rifles a right hand down the middle, walking the Russian down to club him a few more times.
Costa dips and rips an uppercut that catches Kopylov off-guard, but it is his straight right hand that damages Kopylov. Costa blasts the body with a kick, not selling out to force a finish as his power strikes are breaking Kopylov down. Costa goes from body shots to big right hands, and Kopylov is stuck not knowing what to do. He briefly presents in a traditional martial arts stance with his elbow high, but Costa pushes that out of the way. Kopylov thanks him for this with a snappy jab, but it is a single shot as Costa evades anything else. Costa picks and pokes with the most painful seeming jabs and front kicks one can imagine, as his teep kick actually lifts Kopylov off the ground once. He chops down the leg a bit more like a lumberjack, and his body work opens up big rights. Kopylov takes body shots on his way in, breaking up what he wants to do other than a reverse crescent kick. Costa marches through the kicks and punches the Russian square in the face. The round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Costa marches out to the center of the Octagon to further establish dominance, hammering his Russian adversary’s front with a few kicks. Kopylov splits the guard when leaping in, but Costa is able to back off and wail on him with kicks to any target. Kopylov catches Costa off-balance with another blitz, only for Costa to rebound off the wire and jump forward to clip Kopylov again. The two hand-fight while in opposing stances, with Kopylov kicking the ribs and punching high as Costa appears to be slowing. “Borrachinha” attacks the body and counters a rushing Kopylov with a right hand, and he points at the Russian after tagging him. Costa loads up with a right to the body and then a right to the head. Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a massive right hand that stings Costa, but Costa wags his finger at him.
The mere wag of his finger dissuades Kopylov from diving in to keep attacking, allowing Costa to shake off any cobwebs and launch additional right hands to the busted nose and swollen midsection. Kopylov rifles a left hand up top, standing straight up and eating a low kick. He goes after the Brazilian, lobbing short combos in punches as Costa sticks his tongue out at him. This encourages Kopylov to throw more, only to get caught and backed off by body shots from Costa. The former title challenger shoots for a single, bailing on it and trying a second time so he can knee Kopylov in the liver. Kopylov springs forward behind a crisp right hand, only to slow down right in front of Costa and take right hands on the eye socket. Kopylov swings hard, and Costa rushes towards him to get a clinch. When he lets it go, he strikes the body and staggers Kopylov with a massive overhand right. The Russian is tough as old beef jerky, who bounces back and goes for broke as the fight concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)

The Official Result
Paulo Costa def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.

"Roman's going to be the pick quite literally because I don't think Paula is going to use all of his tools."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.

Kopylov by late finish or decision
"I'm taking Copilov here. I'll take Copilov to either get a late finish or win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.

"I got to pick Roman Kopylov. 100%."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.

"In terms of a prediction, I expect him to win. And I expect him to point out point Costa utilizing some grappling and striking to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.

Paulo Costa lands less than 63.5 significant strikes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going with Roman Copilov over Paulo Costa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.

"I just don't trust Costa to show up the right way for Kopylov."
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (split) (46–49, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 182 of 402 45% 182 of 402 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Paulo Costa 0 158 of 266 59% 158 of 266 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 43 72% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 32 of 49 65% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 45 of 83 54% 45 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 34 of 54 62% 34 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 39 of 88 44% 39 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean Strickland 0 49 of 105 46% 49 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 182 of 402 45% 104 of 258 67 of 127 11 of 17 179 of 397 3 of 5 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 158 of 266 59% 28 of 100 84 of 111 46 of 55 157 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 24 of 56 42% 5 of 18 16 of 35 3 of 3 24 of 54 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 31 of 43 72% 4 of 10 17 of 21 10 of 12 30 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 25 of 70 35% 12 of 40 11 of 24 2 of 6 25 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 32 of 49 65% 2 of 17 16 of 17 14 of 15 32 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 45 of 83 54% 28 of 56 15 of 25 2 of 2 45 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 34 of 54 62% 7 of 19 17 of 23 10 of 12 34 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 39 of 88 44% 22 of 61 14 of 22 3 of 5 38 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 29 of 53 54% 9 of 26 13 of 19 7 of 8 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 49 of 105 46% 37 of 83 11 of 21 1 of 1 47 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 32 of 67 47% 6 of 28 21 of 31 5 of 8 32 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paulo Costa vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-245), Costa (+205)

Round 1
Fresh off a close decision loss to surrender his title, Strickland (28-6, 15-6 UFC) is back in for another five-round contest. With no belt or main event between them, the UFC still decided to schedule this matchup for 25 minutes. He stands across the cage from Brazilian marauder Costa (14-3, 6-3 UFC), who celebrates about 80% of his wins via knockout even as he has not landed one since 2018. Referee Jason Herzog will take control of the cage for this co-main attraction, and possibly due to their back-and-forth on fight week, they do not touch gloves. Costa rushes out of his corner to strike first, where he lands two hearty leg kicks early. Strickland jabs him back, and Costa chops at him with another kick. Strickland raises his leg preemptively to protect against a few others, with damage showing on it less than one minute in. Strickland walks forward despite the kicks, and he prods out a front kick of his own a few times. Costa catches Strickland walking in with a check left hook, and he swats away subsequent front kicks so he can jab the midsection of his foe. Costa pushes off the chest with a much heavier push kick, and Strickland relies on his own front kick again and again. Even if it does not land, he is making Costa think about it. Costa comes up short on an overhand right, but he does connect with a calf kick that is partially checked. They trade jabs, and the Brazilian aims a one-two to the body. Costa clacks a kick off the calf, and Strickland raises his leg up and keeps walking forward tossing out constant front kicks. Costa circles away and fakes a high kick to draw a reaction, and he kicks low to follow. A jab from “The Eraser” reddens the former champ’s nose, and he kicks Strickland in the side and jabs him in the chest. Practically every other step, Strickland is pushing out with the ball of his foot at Costa’s chest and body. Strickland catches a kick and knocks Costa down with a right hand, but Costa hops back upright without batting an eye. Costa spins with a back kick, and Strickland continues pressuring him with these continuous front kicks. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
Strickland does not sit between rounds, instead standing up and watching Costa while receiving advance. He wants to keep fighting, even if he has to take a break. As soon as they resume, Strickland goes right back to his kick spam, as if he were a young child playing a fighting game hitting the same button for one specific strike a hundred times. Costa loads up on power shots to back him off momentarily, and he sits down on a loud low kick that makes Strickland pause. A second kick hurts Strickland’s front leg further, and Strickland’s kick-heavy approach wanes momentarily. Costa attacks that lead leg once more, and he lands a left hand but starts to back off from Strickland’s pressure. Strickland starts prodding his front kicks once more, and Costa stands firm and takes a one-two across the forward bow. Strickland closes distance with this front kick when he is not throwing it directly, and it keeps Costa busy thinking about it enough to stifle most of his own offense. Strickland’s nullifying approach makes the crowd restless, and Costa skips away and hacks down with a low kick that is checked hard. Strickland pokes with kicks to the body, and he snaps the head back with a jab while checking a calf kick. A front kick leads to two punches from the ex-champ, and Costa explodes at him pursuing a takedown, but Strickland tosses him aside. Costa delivers two solid low kicks, and Strickland lifts his leg to shake it out and keeps a poker face. Costa spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the guard, and he backs away as Strickland jabs him again and again. Strickland connects with a stiff jab, and he drops Costa to a knee as the pressure appears to be wilting the Brazilian. Costa stands and sticks his tongue out, and Strickland does not falter in his gameplan of front kicks, jabs and the occasional right hand. This plays out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
It takes all of a few seconds for Strickland to turn the game plan back on of front kick after stifling front kick. Even if every other kick actually lands, they add up, and Costa’s midsection is marking up fast. Costa digs a pair of left hands to the body, and he pounds his own kick to the ribs and then goes low. Strickland checks the latter, and he leans back to avoid a left hook. Strickland powers forward, loading up on a combination until Costa bounces off the cage wall and sticks his tongue out. Costa whips a high kick up and it is blocked, and he strikes low and has his kick checked hard. Costa limps away, and Strickland walks him down while touching up him with jabs. Strickland jabs and jabs again, and he pushes Costa away when Costa rushes at him for a level change. Costa thinks about spinning with a strike, but he just twirls around without throwing anything. Strickland chips away at him with jabs and front kicks, and he evades a spinning wheel kick that zips past his nose. Costa lands a pair of low kicks, and the second makes him hobble away. Costa jabs to the body, and he gets his guts kicked a few more times. Strickland comes up short on two hooks, but the straight strikes land regularly. Two jabs, a front kick and two more come from the former champ, who is cruising while Costa is fading. Costa puts all his power into an overhand right, and Strickland dodges as it glances past him. Strickland strings three heavier punches together, and Costa skirts away and tosses a half-hearted right hand that surprises Strickland. The former champion rips an uppercut as Costa ducks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The middleweights tap gloves as they enter the championship rounds, and Strickland does not need much time before revving up his engines to steadily work Costa over. Costa flails with heavy strikes, and he gets a right hand in, but Strickland lands three of his own, a body kick and a few more jabs. The Brazilian gets off a low kick, and he reaches Strickland with a number of jabs. Costa swipes out with a left hook, and when he has a leg kick checked, he almost falls over from the impact. Costa sells out for a head kick on the other side, and Strickland keeps walking him down and protecting himself from the telegraphed heavy blows. Strickland presses ever forward, jabbing the body and head with punches and front kicks. The approach has been steady and effective, if not overly entertaining. The crowd expresses its restlessness as Costa swings for the fences but hits air, and Strickland does not load up on much while simply outworking his opponent. Costa’s head kicks are blocked, his hooks go wide and his leg kicks are largely checked. Costa gets off a front kick to the body that has much more impact than Strickland’s, and he scores a calf kick that is not checked. He turns and fakes one type of kick so that he can set up a side kick that lands flush on the midsection. Strickland pushes him back with jabs and twos, and Costa slams his left hand on the liver and dings the front leg with another powerful kick. Costa’s kicks are not being checked like before, and Strickland frowns when absorbing them. Costa lands a punch to the body, and he absorbs four punches from up close before backing away. Strickland wings a right hand that bounces into the ear, and Costa stumbles away as the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
The fifth round has been reached by the middleweights, and they touch gloves presumably one last time. Costa tosses out two punches and a low kick, and Strickland lifts his leg up to defend it. Costa kicks it again, and Strickland meanders forward with a front kick from either leg. Costa plants his shin on the front leg of his opponent again as Strickland is coming at him, and Strickland rolls to avoid a right hand and checks a low kick to follow. Costa winds up on power punches, and one more leg kick gets checked. Strickland catches a body kick and makes Costa pay for it with a pair of straight left hands before releasing the leg, and the two throw hands at the same time. A body kick from “The Eraser” backs Strickland off for a moment, but Strickland gets back into his rhythm of jab to front kick territory. Strickland has his own body struck from kicks and punches, and Costa doubles down on body shots. Costa kicks the body on the other side, and Strickland jabs him and pushes him away with a teep kick. Strickland’s jab is on point, disrupting Costa’s sweeping strikes. Costa goes to the body with a stern left hand, and Strickland no-sells it and works the body with front kick after front kick. Costa just misses on a one-two, and he barrels forward and pushes Strickland back but does not change levels. Strickland misses the mark on a pair of punches, and Costa snaps his head back with a power jab and sits down on a low kick. Costa reaches his man with a left hook, and he is driven away with a handful of jabs. Costa thinks about pursuing a single, but he gives it up and spins with a back fist as he eats a jab. Costa sits down on a few punches, and Strickland pours it on with a barrage of punches. As Costa bounces off the fence, Strickland boots him in the raised guard with a head kick with enough impact to still put Costa on his seat. Costa springs back up, and Strickland runs at him with a jumping front kick as the long engagement comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Paulo Costa via Split Decision (46-49, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Angelo picks Sean Strickland because of his dependability and the Philly shell defense. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's power and cardio but believes Strickland's volume and durability will win a decision, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Costa might try wrestling after seeing Dricus du Plessis take Strickland down, but still favors Strickland.

"I am going to pick Sean Strickland here because he is dependable and I trust the Philly shell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sean Strickland

Big Brady likes Sean Strickland at 8,800 because it's a five-round fight, giving Strickland 25 minutes to rack up volume (6 significant strikes per minute). He thinks Strickland's pace will add up and he could even get a late finish. He also likes Paulo Costa in cash games for the same five-round volume, noting Costa's durability and potential takedowns. He sees Costa as a live dog but expects Strickland to win a decision or late finish.

Sean Strickland wins by decision or late finish, Paulo Costa goes five rounds and scores well in cash
"I don't mind some Shan Strickland 8,800 just because it is five rounds and he's going to have 25 minutes to rack up that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Strickland, highlighting his jab and reach advantage. He notes Strickland's durability and volume, and believes Costa's power is overrated (last KO of note was Uriah Hall in 2018). Cody expects Strickland to drown Costa with pressure and volume, possibly getting a late stoppage. He mentions Strickland's experience in five-round fights and Costa's lack thereof.

Strickland inside the distance
"Strickland's a former champion... his number one weapon is his jab... he's got a 76 inch reach which is long for the division... I got Strickland by stoppage."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Daniel notes that Costa can compete at this level but questions if he can win. He highlights Strickland's insane output and Philly shell, and expects Strickland to edge a decision with higher volume. He acknowledges either could get knocked out but leans Strickland.

"I'm gonna lean him with Strickland in that fight"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Daniel Vreeland also picks Costa, agreeing with Fox. He was initially concerned about the 25-minute fight but was reassured by Costa's performance against Whittaker. Vreeland notes Strickland won't grapple and Costa is a decent grappler anyway. He sees risk standing with Costa for 25 minutes but believes Costa's power and durability give him the edge.

"I'm glad you didn't talk me out of Costa because he was the one I had my name down"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Jeff Fox picks Paulo Costa at +200, citing that Strickland's five-round losses (to Jared Cannonier and Dricus du Plessis) came because opponents landed harder shots that judges value more. He believes Costa will land the bigger shots and notes Costa's strong performance against Robert Whittaker. Fox thinks Costa can take three rounds and possibly win a split decision, and he's not worried about Strickland wrestling.

split decision
"I'm gonna say Paulo Costa is going to come in here he's going to land the bigger shots"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

The host believes Costa's power punching is the key to beating Strickland, who has struggled against power punchers. Costa's ability to land big shots over five rounds could lead to a knockout or sway judges with damage. The host notes Costa's recent activity and motivation, and sees value at +205, picking Costa by knockout.

knockout
"I'm going to take Costa here, I'm going to take Costa by knockout as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul picks Strickland, emphasizing volume advantage. He notes Costa can land big shots but lacks volume; Strickland will put up 200+ significant strikes while Costa struggles to reach 100. He expects Strickland by decision or late stoppage, and mentions Strickland's reach advantage (76-inch reach vs Costa's 72-inch). He also notes Costa's poor body language and cardio in past fights.

Strickland by decision or late stoppage
"I feel like this fight really comes down to volume... Strickland's going to put up 200 significant strikes and Costa would be lucky to get up to upwards of 100."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, noting that Costa is inconsistent and has been effectively jabbed before. He believes Strickland can survive Costa's early pressure and take over in later rounds. He predicts Strickland by TKO in rounds 4 or 5. He acknowledges Costa's dangerous right hand and head kick but trusts Strickland's durability.

Strickland by TKO round 4 or 5
"I'm going to go with Strickland to win this fight by TKO in the later rounds"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 95 of 175 54% 95 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 67 of 151 44% 67 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robert Whittaker 0 32 of 55 58% 32 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 95 of 175 54% 63 of 143 4 of 4 28 of 28 95 of 172 0 of 3 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 67 of 151 44% 39 of 117 8 of 12 20 of 22 67 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 38 of 62 61% 26 of 50 1 of 1 11 of 11 38 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 27 of 49 55% 16 of 38 4 of 4 7 of 7 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 32 of 55 58% 20 of 43 3 of 3 9 of 9 32 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 26 of 54 48% 16 of 43 2 of 3 8 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 25 of 58 43% 17 of 50 0 of 0 8 of 8 25 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 14 of 48 29% 7 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
WIN vs Luke Rockhold
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 0 73 of 103 70% 106 of 137 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:28
Luke Rockhold 0 51 of 70 72% 57 of 78 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 0 27 of 34 79% 56 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
Luke Rockhold 0 19 of 23 82% 19 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Paulo Costa 0 30 of 42 71% 31 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Luke Rockhold 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
3 Paulo Costa 0 16 of 27 59% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Luke Rockhold 0 9 of 12 75% 15 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 73 of 103 70% 37 of 61 33 of 39 3 of 3 53 of 80 3 of 4 17 of 19
Luke Rockhold 51 of 70 72% 23 of 40 23 of 25 5 of 5 48 of 67 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 27 of 34 79% 13 of 19 13 of 14 1 of 1 11 of 15 2 of 3 14 of 16
Luke Rockhold 19 of 23 82% 6 of 8 11 of 13 2 of 2 17 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 30 of 42 71% 14 of 22 14 of 18 2 of 2 29 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 23 of 35 65% 11 of 23 9 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 16 of 27 59% 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
Luke Rockhold 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Angelo picks Paulo Costa over Luke Rockhold. He describes Costa as a massive middleweight with power, output, and surprising cardio, noting his relentless pace even when exhausted. Angelo acknowledges Rockhold's credentials as a former champion and talented wrestler, but believes the three-year layoff and age (38) are too much to overcome against a top-ranked opponent. He mentions that Costa has good takedown defense (80%) and that he already placed a moneyline bet on Costa at better odds earlier.

Placed moneyline bet on Paulo Costa at better odds earlier in the week.
"palo costa absolutely the pick i love luke rockhold but man first fight back in three years is who they give you that's a tough go"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Big Brady is confident in Paulo Costa. He notes that Luke Rockhold hasn't fought in three years, hasn't won in nearly five years, and was knocked out in his last fight. Rockhold's chin is gone, and he looked slow and washed against Jan Błachowicz. Costa is younger, more active, hits hard, and has solid cardio. Brady expects Costa to knock Rockhold out in the first or second round. He mentions Costa's takedown defense is good, so Rockhold's wrestling won't work.

Costa by KO, round 2
"i think costa knocks him out i think austin knocks him out in the first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa but expresses concerns about Costa's weight cut and his poor grappling off his back. He notes Rockhold's durability issues but acknowledges Rockhold's BJJ could be a threat if Costa gets taken down. Ultimately, he trusts Costa's power and finishing ability.

"i'm back on the holocaust team yeah i think he'd be a fool not to it seems too good to be true but i try not to overthink it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to knock out Luke Rockhold in the first round. He notes that Rockhold's chin has been suspect for a long time, citing knockouts by Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, Yoel Romero, and Jan Błachowicz. He believes Rockhold hasn't fought since 2019 and is coming back for a paycheck, which is a bad sign. Levi praises Costa's takedown defense (stuffing Yoel Romero's takedowns) and his power, and thinks Costa is catching Rockhold at the right time. He also mentions that Costa looked back to form in his last fight against Marvin Vettori.

Mentions he missed the line at -255 and now it's -360, so he's not betting but would have liked Costa at a better price. Says Costa will knock out Rockhold in the first round.
"I think he's gonna come out here and knock Luke rockhold out in the first round so yeah I got Paula Costa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Costa should knock out Rockhold, who has a weak chin and has been inactive for three years. However, the -350 price is too high for a finish-reliant fighter. The host prefers Costa by KO at -120 (now -170) but is passing on the moneyline. He warns that if Costa doesn't finish early, Rockhold could make it a tough fight.

Costa by KO was preferred at -120 but line moved to -170; host passes.
"I'm gonna go costa costa ko but please please please do not put all your eggs in this polycaster basket."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Paul picks Costa to knock out Rockhold inside the first two rounds. He notes Rockhold's chin issues and long layoff, and likes the under 10 minutes on Prize Picks. He mentions Costa's wild card nature but thinks he's in great shape for this fight.

under 10 minutes (fight time) on Prize Picks
"i think costa knocks them out inside the first two rounds on prize picks they've got uh this fight set at fight time 10 minutes and it's like at some of the books right now it's like minus 175 minus …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Paulo Costa

The Guru predicts Paulo Costa wins by first-round KO. He describes Costa rushing across the cage, landing a big kick, and then clipping Rockhold with a shot. He sees Costa slipping Rockhold's jab, landing a right hand and body shot, then a switch kick to the body. He envisions Costa blocking Rockhold's kicks and landing an inside leg kick, then a body kick, and finally a left hook that drops Rockhold about two and a half minutes into the first round.

KO in round 1
"i've got immediate paulo costa ko"
LOSS vs Marvin Vettori
Decision (unanimous) (48–46, 48–46, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 163 of 260 62% 172 of 269 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Paulo Costa 0 190 of 346 54% 214 of 373 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 39 of 68 57% 42 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Marvin Vettori 0 36 of 65 55% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Marvin Vettori 0 17 of 29 58% 19 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 55 56% 47 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
4 Marvin Vettori 0 30 of 47 63% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 49 of 81 60% 53 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
5 Marvin Vettori 0 45 of 66 68% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 62 50% 32 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 163 of 260 62% 82 of 174 67 of 72 14 of 14 154 of 249 5 of 5 4 of 6
Paulo Costa 190 of 346 54% 154 of 307 33 of 36 3 of 3 168 of 316 21 of 29 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 35 of 53 66% 13 of 29 18 of 20 4 of 4 34 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 39 of 68 57% 34 of 62 5 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 36 of 65 55% 14 of 42 18 of 19 4 of 4 35 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 40 of 80 50% 29 of 69 10 of 10 1 of 1 36 of 72 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 17 of 29 58% 13 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 5
Paulo Costa 31 of 55 56% 23 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 27 of 51 3 of 3 1 of 1
4 Marvin Vettori 30 of 47 63% 16 of 32 11 of 12 3 of 3 28 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 49 of 81 60% 41 of 73 7 of 7 1 of 1 38 of 66 11 of 15 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 45 of 66 68% 26 of 47 17 of 17 2 of 2 43 of 64 1 of 1 1 of 1
Paulo Costa 31 of 62 50% 27 of 57 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo finds this a very tough pick. He initially had Costa but flipped to Vettori because Vettori has more ways to win (grappling, durability). He notes Vettori's takedown accuracy is under 50% and he struggles to keep people down, while Costa has 80% takedown defense. He's worried Vettori will get sucked into a striking match. He ultimately picks Vettori but is not confident. He loves a prop bet on Costa: 'wins inside the distance, decision no action' at -110, meaning if Costa wins by KO he gets paid, if he loses a decision he gets a refund.

loves Costa wins inside distance, decision no action at -110; likes more/more on monkey knife fight (over 117.5 combined strikes)
"i love the palo costa wins inside the distance decision no action bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Vettori to survive Costa's early storm and win late, citing Vettori's durability, five-round experience, and never-been-KO'd record. He notes Costa's takedown defense (80%) and strength make him hard to take down, but believes Vettori's wrestling and cardio will prevail in later rounds. He predicts a fifth-round TKO or submission.

fifth round TKO or submission
"i'm gonna say marvin vittori does win i'm gonna say like a fifth round either a tko or a sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Marvin Vettori, expecting to get a better live price after Vettori likely drops the first round. He highlights Vettori's durability, cardio, and experience in five-round fights, contrasting with Costa's questionable cardio and history of gassing. Cody notes Costa's impressive pressure against Yoel Romero but points out his poor performance against Adesanya and his tendency to fade after two rounds. He believes Vettori can take over in rounds 3-5 and recommends betting live after the first round.

Bet live after first round; expects better odds if Vettori drops round 1
"i feel like i want to go with marvin vittori but we're going to get a much better price on him live after he likely drops the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Lock picks Vettori based on durability and cardio advantage. He notes Costa's cardio drops after 8 minutes and Vettori's pace will take over late. He expects Vettori to survive early onslaught and finish in rounds 3-5. He also likes Vettori inside the distance and round props.

Vettori inside the distance +250, Vettori round 3 +1100, round 4 +1700, round 5 +2500, under 4.5 rounds -128
"i do like the vitoria line here i don't even mind him up to that minus 200 miles to 20 point because i think his durability will come through and then his cardio will be the beneficiary"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul initially leans towards Costa but is swayed by Cody's reasoning. He acknowledges Vettori's durability and chin, but also notes Costa's power and the possibility of a knockout. Paul suggests that if betting Costa, the knockout prop at +225 is the way to go. He ultimately agrees that waiting for live markets is the best approach, but does not commit to a clear pick.

Costa by KO +225
"i was thinking costa because i'm just not entirely sure that marvin can just out grapple him early on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori, citing Costa's questionable cardio and mindset after his first KO loss. He believes Vettori's durability, pressure, and activity will allow him to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a rear-naked choke finish in round 4, drawing parallels to Vettori's fight with Omari Akhmedov.

rear naked choke round 4
"i'm going with marvin vittori here as a slight favorite in the main events and i reckon he gets this one done over paulo costa as the rounds go on"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
TKO (punches) R2 3:59 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 55 of 84 65% 55 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Paulo Costa 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 22 of 37 59% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Israel Adesanya 1 33 of 47 70% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Paulo Costa 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 55 of 84 65% 24 of 51 5 of 6 26 of 27 45 of 71 2 of 3 8 of 10
Paulo Costa 12 of 26 46% 2 of 13 7 of 8 3 of 5 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 22 of 37 59% 4 of 17 3 of 4 15 of 16 22 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 7 of 11 63% 1 of 4 5 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 33 of 47 70% 20 of 34 2 of 2 11 of 11 23 of 34 2 of 3 8 of 10
Paulo Costa 5 of 15 33% 1 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 4 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Adesanya after initially leaning Costa. He cites Adesanya's eight-inch reach advantage, superior striking defense, and ability to stick and move in the bigger cage. He thinks Costa is hittable and may fade in later rounds, leading to a fourth-round knockout for Adesanya.

Adesanya by fourth-round knockout; line could be wider
"i'm going to go with israel otasanya to win i'm going to pick him to win by give me a fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to become the new champion, citing Costa's pressure, body work, and ability to close distance. He dismisses concerns about Costa's cardio and notes Costa dropped Yoel Romero with a left hook. He believes Izzy's jab will be answered by Costa's combinations, and that Costa can win by decision or knockout. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation at plus 160.

dog or pass situation; plus 160 on paulo costa
"i'm going to go with the paula bohacino and new champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Israel Adesanya, expecting him to use his movement and counter-striking to frustrate Paulo Costa. He believes Costa will swing at air and slow down after two rounds, allowing Adesanya to take over and finish in the fourth round. He notes that Costa's power is a threat early, but Adesanya's elusiveness and technical striking will prevail.

Adesanya wins in round 4 (+1050), Costa wins in round 1 (+600) (degenerate parlay)
"Final prediction israel artisan you know when this fight by fourth round tko."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa, emphasizing Costa's overlooked technical skill, power, and size. He thinks Costa will hurt Adesanya to the body first and then finish upstairs, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes Costa won the trash talk and remains calm, while Adesanya's tentativeness against Romero could be exploited.

Win by TKO in round 2
"i'll go with second round tko for paulo costa start of the second he'll make the reads in the third start wearing him down"
WIN vs Yoel Romero
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 1 125 of 284 44% 125 of 284 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:12
Yoel Romero 1 118 of 213 55% 118 of 213 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 1 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Yoel Romero 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Paulo Costa 0 40 of 91 43% 40 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:01
Yoel Romero 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Paulo Costa 0 53 of 124 42% 53 of 124 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Yoel Romero 0 44 of 73 60% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 125 of 284 44% 96 of 244 11 of 20 18 of 20 118 of 276 7 of 8 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 118 of 213 55% 67 of 148 46 of 58 5 of 7 110 of 202 5 of 5 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 32 of 69 46% 23 of 54 2 of 7 7 of 8 31 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 37 of 69 53% 19 of 46 16 of 20 2 of 3 32 of 61 2 of 2 3 of 6
2 Paulo Costa 40 of 91 43% 28 of 77 6 of 7 6 of 7 39 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 37 of 71 52% 24 of 53 12 of 17 1 of 1 36 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 53 of 124 42% 45 of 113 3 of 6 5 of 5 48 of 118 5 of 6 0 of 0
Yoel Romero 44 of 73 60% 24 of 49 18 of 21 2 of 3 42 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov - Fight History
WIN vs Marco Tulio
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 3 61 of 124 49% 69 of 132 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:34
Marco Tulio 0 62 of 160 38% 80 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marco Tulio 0 22 of 61 36% 22 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 1 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Marco Tulio 0 26 of 57 45% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 2 24 of 41 58% 31 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Marco Tulio 0 14 of 42 33% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 61 of 124 49% 46 of 97 12 of 17 3 of 10 46 of 102 4 of 5 11 of 17
Marco Tulio 62 of 160 38% 28 of 105 18 of 34 16 of 21 62 of 159 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 15 of 39 38% 6 of 22 7 of 10 2 of 7 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marco Tulio 22 of 61 36% 7 of 37 8 of 14 7 of 10 22 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 22 of 44 50% 19 of 38 2 of 4 1 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 12
Marco Tulio 26 of 57 45% 11 of 37 7 of 11 8 of 9 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 24 of 41 58% 21 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 1 15 of 31 4 of 5 5 of 5
Marco Tulio 14 of 42 33% 10 of 31 3 of 9 1 of 2 14 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tulio (-198), Kopylov (+164)

Round 1
It is a battle between two finish-first middleweights to move things along, with the loser dropping to a .500 record with the organization. The victor between Kopylov (14-5, 6-5 UFC) and Tulio (14-2, 2-1 UFC) will earn their first win in over a year. Referee Gasper Oliver will be there every step of the way, including the sporting glove touch he watches to open things up.
Both men flirt with out-of-range strikes to get in on one another, and it is Tulio who lands first with a sweeping low kick. Kopylov walks him down but is not ready to engage yet, so Tulio jams him up with a body shot. Kopylov offers up his own calf kick, answered immediately by the Brazilian. Kopylov parries an overhand right and rips a kick to the ribs. Tulio jabs his way forward, following with one to the stomach and just evading an overhand right. Tulio chews up the front leg with kicks that form a welt on his foe’s front leg. Tulio keeps working the calf, and he keeps his hands up when Kopylov storms him with four punches that largely careen off his gloves and arms.
Tulio snaps the head back with a long right hand, and he reaches another to the body as Kopylov retreats. Kopylov comes up short with a high kick, and he lunges out with a left hand but is met with a stern right to the ribs. Tulio sneaks a head kick behind it, and Kopylov tanks it and plods forward. Kopylov retaliates with a body shot, but it is one-and-done as Tulio parries a high kick after it. Kopylov drives a one-two down the middle, one that might have knocked out small fry he faced in the past but is not nearly enough to get more than Tulio’s attention. Kopylov leaps with a knee, and Tulio pushes him to the side and belts him with a few punches before the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tulio

Round 2
They touch gloves to get going again, flashing their jabs in alternating stances. Kopylov drills Tulio with a check hook as Tulio is about to come in, and the Brazilian wears it well and is back to working the front leg before long. Kopylov lashes out with a one-two, seemingly getting the time of the advancing Brazilian and timing his explosions well. Tulio goes to the body and head, and Kopylov is quick to counter. Kopylov drills a kick to the side that lands with an audible thud, and hands are subsequently traded. Tulio kicks out the lead leg as Kopylov is about to throw, and he wings a head kick on the other side. Kopylov starts to leak from a wound on his right cheek, but he pays it no mind as he wants to throw hands. He slips on the way in, and dances away when Tulio spins but does not let anything go after it.
Tulio rifles off a right hand down Broadway, and his left hand opens up the cut on Kopylov’s face much more. There is another gash on Kopylov’s eyebrow, and he transforms to a horror movie as blood streams down his face. Tulio is able to take advantage of the damage and snaps out a hard right hand, but he walks directly into the inferno that is suddenly raging inside of Kopylov. Kopylov unleashes a pair of fiery fists that knock Tulio off his feet. Kopylov chases after the Brazilian, who is able to get back to his feet, and swings his way into a clinch. Rather than doing more damage or ending the fight, Kopylov just holds on until the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 3
The 185ers touch gloves to get going, and Kopylov goes hellbent for leather as soon as Oliver says go. Blasting Tulio in the face with a short but devastating combination, he hurts and knocks the Brazilian down at the end of a vicious left hand early on. As he plans on punishing Tulio further, Kopylov elects to take the fight down. Completing a solid double-leg takedown, Kopylov grounds Tulio, but he just holds him there again. Tulio slowly, methodically works back to his feet without absorbing much more offense, and he starts to stalk Kopylov again.
Tulio jabs at the wound on Kopylov’s face, planting a kick on his ribs and eating a left hand over the top for his effort. Kopylov stands firm when Tulio engages, forcing the Brazilian to backpedal after a trio of punches come flying. Tulio jabs the stomach with the ball of his foot outstretched, and his head kick comes up just short. They trade hands, with Kopylov getting the better of the exchanges. Tulio spins to let go with a back kick, and Kopylov keeps him honest with a body kick and head kick. Tulio swings his fists to turn into a back fist, and he slugs Kopylov in the face with a big overhand right but cannot put him down as the buzzer sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Marco Tulio via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, noting he is more well-rounded and can wrestle if needed. He thinks Tulio will shoot takedowns after being knocked out in his last fight. He mentions Tulio's grappling success against Yorsy Baraguri. He has doubts about Tulio's chin but expects him to use wrestling to avoid striking exchanges. He is fairly confident in this pick.

"Marco is going to be the pick. And I'm actually fairly confident in that."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio because he has more ways to win, including grappling. He notes that Tulio has good wrestling and can take the fight to the ground if needed, while Roman Kopylov has no backup plan. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a good striker but believes Tulio's versatility will be the difference.

"Marco's going to be the pick. He has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Big Brady picks Marco Tulio, noting Kopylov's recent lack of output and willingness. He acknowledges Kopylov could knock out Tulio, but trusts Tulio's volume and grappling upside. Brady predicts Tulio wins by decision, as Kopylov is tough and has never been knocked out, but Tulio should outwork him.

"I'm going Tulio here. I'm actually going to go Tulio by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Cody picks Tulio, citing his volume and Kopylov's tendency to be outworked. He notes Tulio's high output and Kopylov's complacency. Cody expects Tulio to win by decision.

"I got Tulio. Tulio's got good volume."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor also picks Kopylov, agreeing that Tulio lacks the sophistication to exploit Kopylov's weaknesses. He notes that the guys who beat Kopylov (Rodriguez, Costa) did so with diligent positional work, which Tulio doesn't have. Connor expects Tulio to look like he's winning for stretches, but Kopylov's power and counter-striking will eventually pay off.

Tulio opened at +190, now -190; Kopylov opened at -225, now +165.
"I don't think Tulio has the sophistication for it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marco Tulio

Daniel picks Tulio, noting his confidence and edge on the mat despite a recent knockout loss. He believes Tulio will stand and bang and has a big advantage if he gets the fight to the ground.

"I'mma come in on uh Marco Tulio. Listen, I know he's coming off a knockout loss, but he seems to me like one of these guys that is going to stand and bang until the day he dies. He's not …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Marco Tulio

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Tulio is a powerful striker (6.69 SLpM, 58% accuracy) with KO wins in two of his three UFC fights, while Kopylov has lost three of his last four and has been knocked out multiple times. Kopylov's takedown defense (88%) is excellent, but he tends to fade in striking exchanges (5.18 SApM). Tulio's pressure and power should be too much for Kopylov, who has a tendency to get hit. Expect Tulio to land a knockout in the first two rounds.

Tulio by KO/TKO +200
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Jacob disagrees strongly, arguing that Kopylov is the better wrestler and that Marco Tulio cannot wrestle him. He points out that Gregory Rodriguez, a high-level wrestler, struggled to take Kopylov down. Jacob believes Kopylov is the more dangerous striker and durable, and that he should be the favorite. He likes the value on Kopylov as a dog.

"I love roping copy in this spot. Like I think he probably should be the favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Lucrative James leans towards Marco Tulio because he believes Tulio has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He notes that Kopylov has a history of low volume and gassing out, while Tulio mixes in wrestling and has more paths to victory. He predicts Tulio wins by knockout, though he acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way.

"I will pick Marco Tulio to win the fight. ... I'll predict him to win it via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host picks Kopylov as an underdog, believing he is the better striker and has the grappling to handle Tulio. He notes that Tulio is overhyped and hittable, and coming off a knockout loss may affect his confidence. He expects Kopylov to counter Tulio's forward pressure and potentially get a knockout. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent losses but sees this as a favorable matchup.

"I'm going to go Copelov. I think Copelov pulls off the upset and I think he even gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Paul leans Tulio but does not love laying chalk. He agrees with Cody's assessment but is not fully confident.

"That's kind of my thought, but don't necessarily love laying chalk on Tulio this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

The MMA Guru picks Marco Tulio, citing Kopylov's recent poor performances against Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodriguez where he shut down after getting hit. He believes Tulio's pressure and momentum will lead to a TKO in round two. He notes Tulio's wins over Tong Gore and Usman Belgui show his finishing ability.

TKO win in round two
"I'm going to go with Marco to Leo getting a TKO win here in round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane picks Kopylov hesitantly. He notes that Kopylov has become a better counter striker and has shown he can solve pressure fighters, as seen in the Curtis fight. However, Kopylov is terrible going backwards and could struggle if Tulio pressures effectively. Zane thinks Tulio's predictability and lack of sophistication will allow Kopylov to find openings, but it's a tough call.

Tulio opened at +190, now -190; Kopylov opened at -225, now +165. Odds shifting due to Kopylov's recent losses.
"I guess I'll take Kopylov."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 52 of 105 49% 54 of 109 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:35
Gregory Rodrigues 0 90 of 173 52% 91 of 174 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Gregory Rodrigues 0 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 70 52% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
3 Roman Kopylov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 52 of 105 49% 35 of 80 9 of 16 8 of 9 51 of 103 1 of 1 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 90 of 173 52% 59 of 133 28 of 37 3 of 3 84 of 164 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 9 of 16 56% 2 of 5 2 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 20 of 35 57% 12 of 25 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 23 of 36 63% 20 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 70 52% 26 of 55 10 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 62 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 20 of 53 37% 13 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 33 of 68 48% 21 of 53 11 of 14 1 of 1 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)

The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.

"I think Gregory Rodriguez makes this a very tricky fight for Roman Copilov... I do think Gregory wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.

first round submission
"I'm going to go Rodriguez first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.

"I like Robocop Rodrigues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.

Odds: Kopylov opened -110, currently +165. Connor says 'it's a coin flip for me'.
"I think just to keep it interesting, I'll take Kapilov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.

"I do favor Hoboc in this one, man. I think he's got more ways to win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.

by KO
"Roman Copilov wins this fight. Brutal knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.

knockout
"I think Hodriguez will do exactly what Paulo Costa did. Walk Copilov down, throw big shots, get his respect, and I think this time actually Rodriguez can close the show and win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"if G Rod is controlling you and he's forcing the issue, well, you know what's even more tiring than trying to hold somebody down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez backing up Roman Copilov and finishing him in round one or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.

Odds: Rodrigues opened -110, currently -190. Kopylov opened -110, jumped to +135, currently +165.
"I got to take Rodriguez in that fight, you know?"
LOSS vs Paulo Costa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 1 99 of 159 62% 102 of 162 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 48 of 104 46% 48 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 1 34 of 54 62% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Paulo Costa 0 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Paulo Costa 0 33 of 48 68% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 99 of 159 62% 34 of 89 41 of 46 24 of 24 87 of 141 3 of 3 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 48 of 104 46% 29 of 79 14 of 20 5 of 5 48 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 34 of 54 62% 13 of 33 7 of 7 14 of 14 25 of 39 0 of 0 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 11 of 27 40% 5 of 18 3 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 32 of 57 56% 10 of 31 18 of 22 4 of 4 31 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 5 of 8 2 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 33 of 48 68% 11 of 25 16 of 17 6 of 6 31 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 21 of 45 46% 15 of 39 6 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)

Round 1
Without a win since 2022, and no knockout victories in over seven years, Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC) is back in the Octagon after a while away planning on getting a little more green on his ledger. Standing in his way will be fellow knockout artist Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC), with the heavy-hitting middleweights combining for 23 strike stoppages in their 28 pro wins. Referee Herb Dean will don his proverbial hard hat and try to avoid any errant swings. The fighters do not touch gloves.
Costa wants to party immediately, surging into action with punches and kicks to put the Russian on his back foot. Kopylov responds with a left hand that reddens the face of his opponent, and he gets caught with a right hand to sustain a little damage on his mug as well. Costa scores a kick to the inner thigh, bouncing in and out and just brushing the ear with a right hand. “Borrachinha” whips a kick to the ribs after it, and the two men catch one another with single punches. Kopylov recovers first, bouncing in to kick Costa in the stomach. He then kicks the calf, checking one coming back his direction. Costa jabs and opens up with a left hook, with his right hand chambered back ready to go.
Costa works the inside and outside of his foe’s front leg, and Kopylov times one kick to go upstairs with a left hand. Costa drives a right hand to the sternum, and his head kick shakes the hair of the Russian without causing much damage otherwise. He does hammer Kopylov’s front leg with another calf kick, and he goes on the other side to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov drills the midsection with a fierce kick, parrying a high kick aimed at his dome and pushing Costa back with a pair of punches. Costa goes to the body multiple times, chaining a right hand behind it that dislodges Kopylov’s mouthpiece and dropping him to his knees. Costa hammers the hurt Russian with short but powerful punches, and Kopylov stands up and circles away while Dean collects his mouthpiece. Dean finds the right moment to give Kopylov his gumshield back, and Kopylov thanks him by landing once more on the Brazilian before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
As the second round begins, coach and commentator Din Thomas issues pungent criticisms towards Kopylov’s corner for their questionable advice about how Kopylov was succeeding. When the fighters get going in Round 2, Costa is quick to get in his groove, making Kopylov react every time he throws. This frees Costa up to pick his shots, measuring targets to the body and head when finding openings. The power of Costa makes Kopylov think twice about swinging more than once in a row, as he digs two kicks to the body. Costa rifles a right hand down the middle, walking the Russian down to club him a few more times.
Costa dips and rips an uppercut that catches Kopylov off-guard, but it is his straight right hand that damages Kopylov. Costa blasts the body with a kick, not selling out to force a finish as his power strikes are breaking Kopylov down. Costa goes from body shots to big right hands, and Kopylov is stuck not knowing what to do. He briefly presents in a traditional martial arts stance with his elbow high, but Costa pushes that out of the way. Kopylov thanks him for this with a snappy jab, but it is a single shot as Costa evades anything else. Costa picks and pokes with the most painful seeming jabs and front kicks one can imagine, as his teep kick actually lifts Kopylov off the ground once. He chops down the leg a bit more like a lumberjack, and his body work opens up big rights. Kopylov takes body shots on his way in, breaking up what he wants to do other than a reverse crescent kick. Costa marches through the kicks and punches the Russian square in the face. The round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Costa marches out to the center of the Octagon to further establish dominance, hammering his Russian adversary’s front with a few kicks. Kopylov splits the guard when leaping in, but Costa is able to back off and wail on him with kicks to any target. Kopylov catches Costa off-balance with another blitz, only for Costa to rebound off the wire and jump forward to clip Kopylov again. The two hand-fight while in opposing stances, with Kopylov kicking the ribs and punching high as Costa appears to be slowing. “Borrachinha” attacks the body and counters a rushing Kopylov with a right hand, and he points at the Russian after tagging him. Costa loads up with a right to the body and then a right to the head. Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a massive right hand that stings Costa, but Costa wags his finger at him.
The mere wag of his finger dissuades Kopylov from diving in to keep attacking, allowing Costa to shake off any cobwebs and launch additional right hands to the busted nose and swollen midsection. Kopylov rifles a left hand up top, standing straight up and eating a low kick. He goes after the Brazilian, lobbing short combos in punches as Costa sticks his tongue out at him. This encourages Kopylov to throw more, only to get caught and backed off by body shots from Costa. The former title challenger shoots for a single, bailing on it and trying a second time so he can knee Kopylov in the liver. Kopylov springs forward behind a crisp right hand, only to slow down right in front of Costa and take right hands on the eye socket. Kopylov swings hard, and Costa rushes towards him to get a clinch. When he lets it go, he strikes the body and staggers Kopylov with a massive overhand right. The Russian is tough as old beef jerky, who bounces back and goes for broke as the fight concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)

The Official Result
Paulo Costa def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.

"Roman's going to be the pick quite literally because I don't think Paula is going to use all of his tools."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.

Kopylov by late finish or decision
"I'm taking Copilov here. I'll take Copilov to either get a late finish or win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.

"I got to pick Roman Kopylov. 100%."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.

"In terms of a prediction, I expect him to win. And I expect him to point out point Costa utilizing some grappling and striking to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.

Paulo Costa lands less than 63.5 significant strikes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going with Roman Copilov over Paulo Costa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.

"I just don't trust Costa to show up the right way for Kopylov."
WIN vs Chris Curtis
TKO (head kick) R3 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 142 of 261 54% 146 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 130 of 307 42% 133 of 310 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 110 43% 48 of 110 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 104 55% 59 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 38 of 96 39% 38 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 74 56% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 44 of 101 43% 47 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 142 of 261 54% 107 of 204 30 of 52 5 of 5 142 of 261 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 130 of 307 42% 91 of 266 14 of 16 25 of 25 124 of 300 4 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 42 of 83 50% 32 of 62 8 of 19 2 of 2 42 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 48 of 110 43% 33 of 93 6 of 8 9 of 9 46 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 58 of 104 55% 42 of 78 14 of 24 2 of 2 58 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 38 of 96 39% 25 of 83 3 of 3 10 of 10 38 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 42 of 74 56% 33 of 64 8 of 9 1 of 1 42 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 44 of 101 43% 33 of 90 5 of 5 6 of 6 40 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov

Round 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.

"Roman kopilov is the better Striker so Roman kopilov has to be the pick it's that simple Striker versus Striker I'm going with the better Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.

"I like kopov here I think kopov probably wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.

"sign me up for action man he this might be our last big cash on action man you know but uh I'm here for it dude I'm absolutely here for it so plus 210 sign me up for Chris Curtis"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.

"So I got to pick Koppelov here, I just, yeah, I'm my inclination is to pick Koppelov as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.

"I think Roman kopov is going to come out here and pick him apart but it could get sketchy late second round late third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.

"I think Roman copy love has all the tools to win in this one if he doesn't get caught with a big shot in the middle of the Octagon tradeing I think that he's going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.

by knockout
"I still have to lean with copil love as I think he's a superior Striker and has enough sting on his shots to be the second person to finish Chris Curtis by knockout and 43 professional fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.

"I'm flipping my pick we all go down together with the action man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.

"I'm going Roman copy love to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.

"But I am also going to take Koppelov because much as I love him and respect him. I do not trust Chris Curtis."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 105 55% 114 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 1 41 of 71 57% 74 of 114 5 of 9 55% 0 0 8:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 23 of 42 54% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 1 18 of 31 58% 23 of 36 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
2 Roman Kopylov 0 20 of 36 55% 52 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 0 9 of 19 47% 17 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:58
3 Roman Kopylov 0 15 of 27 55% 34 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 0 14 of 21 66% 34 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 58 of 105 55% 18 of 52 24 of 30 16 of 23 51 of 97 6 of 6 1 of 2
César Almeida 41 of 71 57% 34 of 63 5 of 6 2 of 2 32 of 61 0 of 0 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 23 of 42 54% 4 of 15 7 of 10 12 of 17 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
César Almeida 18 of 31 58% 13 of 26 4 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 24 0 of 0 6 of 7
2 Roman Kopylov 20 of 36 55% 7 of 19 11 of 13 2 of 4 16 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 1
César Almeida 9 of 19 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 15 of 27 55% 7 of 18 6 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 1
César Almeida 14 of 21 66% 13 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-112), Kopylov (-108)

Round 1
A pair of knockout artists grace the cage for the preliminary headliner, with Almeida (5-0, 1-0 UFC) and Kopylov (12-3, 4-3 UFC) tallying 15 knockouts opposite zero submissions on their respective ledgers. Referee Herb Dean steels himself for what’s about to come next. Before going all-out, the two middleweight strikers bump fists. Kopylov lands one kick, and Almeida answers with five of his own. Almeida goes after a head kick, and Kopylov lines up a right to the body and left to the head. Almeida pays it no mind and looks to set up a step-in knee when Kopylov comes after him. Almeida slams his shin on the inside and outside of Kopylov’s front leg, and he slips away from a jab. Almeida lands a low kick, and Kopylov catches the kick and trips the Brazilian up to put him down on the ground. Kopylov backs off instead of climbing into top position, and he retreats when a few big kicks fly at him. The threat of the takedown opens up a massive left hand for the Russian, who hurts Almeida badly but does not take advantage of it. Almeida resets, and the two proceed to fire off heavy blows. Almeida scores a body kick, and Kopylov shoots in for a takedown and plants the kickboxer on his back. Almeida wall-walks his way up, and Kopylov measures him to blast him with two right hands before Almeida stands back up. Almeida goes to the body, and he wipes his eye after taking a straight left hand. Kopylov takes advantage of body kick by busting Almeida in the chops with a straight left, sending Almeida crashing to the canvas. Kopylov backs away to let his man up, and he skirts away from two kicks and shoots for a takedown to take Almeida off his feet. Kopylov lands the double and puts himself in side control, keeping tight chest pressure to pin “Cesinha” down. Almeida gets the guard back and is warned for punches to the back of the head. Kopylov rides out the rest of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights double bump fists, and Almeida reintroduces himself with two body kicks. The second lands, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Almeida digs the body with two push kicks, and he turns his hips into a body kick. Almeida walks Kopylov down and kicks his lead leg, only to get countered with a powerful right hook. Almeida ducks a punch to jab the body, and his subsequent head kick glances off the shoulder. Almeida loops a left hand around the guard, and two more punches land before Kopylov shoots in for a takedown. Almeida stifles him and digs a left to the liver, and he connects with a few more punches and retreats when Kopylov measures him with a one-two. Kopylov rushes forward to take the fight down, and Almeida leans his back against the wall and slides his arm beneath the chin with a guillotine choke. From this position, the Brazilian knees Kopylov in the chest a few times. Almeida escapes, and they jab at one another. Fists fly, and Kopylov catches his man with a right hand. Almeida fires off a head kick, and he lands a body shot and chains it into a knee from up close before pushing Kopylov away. Almeida kicks the ribs, and Kopylov sweeps him off his feet and dumps him on the mat. Kopylov retains top control in half guard, keeping Almeida stuck on his back and pushing him over when Almeida sits up. Almeida kicks the side with his heel from off his back, and Dean asks for Kopylov to do more as Kopylov is just grinding. Kopylov stays tightly pressed on his foe’s chest, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bow to one another before engaging in the final frame. Almeida strikes first, with a front kick and a body kick. Kopylov doubles up a jab and lets go with a head kick, but Almeida pushes through it swinging his mighty fists. Kopylov ducks into a right hand and he wobbles back, and Almeida takes advantage of it by planting a knee on the forehead and a right hand on the way out. Almeida lines up another right hand, and as he rushes forward to throw more, Kopylov tackles him to the floor. Kopylov climbs into the open guard of his foe, and it only takes a few seconds of inaction for Dean to clap for more activity. Dean asks a second time, and Kopylov does not oblige him. Almeida closes his guard around the waist, and Dean calls for action a third time. Kopylov gets off a left hand over the top, and there have now been four claps from Dean to improve his position or do some damage. Almeida hangs on tight, and Kopylov lands two punches after Dean claps a fifth time while saying “work.” Kopylov does just enough to keep going, and chants boom in the area to “stand them up.” Commentator Joe Rogan joins them momentarily in those calls. Kopylov stays doing nothing, and Dean finally stands them up with 90 seconds to spare as the crowd is thrilled by him. Almeida thanks him with a blitz of fists, and he cracks the Russian with a combination. To take all the wind out of his sails, Kopylov rushes ahead and take Almeida down to the ground easy as can be. Almeida kicks him off, forcing Kopylov upright again, and Dean tells Kopylov to do something rather than lord over him slapping with occasional kicks. Kopylov drops down into side control, and he clings to the Brazilian until the prolonged endeavor draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Cesar Almeida via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov because although César Almeida is the better pure kickboxer, Kopylov has shown he can shoot takedowns and has good takedown defense. He believes the MMA aspect, specifically Kopylov's ability to mix in wrestling, will be the difference. He notes Almeida's takedown defense in the center of the cage is poor.

"I got to go Roman copy love Roman copy love is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady is targeting this fight heavily, expecting both guys to stand and bang with power. He thinks Roman Kopylov will be lower owned and may implement a wrestling-heavy game plan for takedown upside. He sees either guy live for a knockout. He also likes César Almeida but notes he will be very popular.

Roman Kopylov wins by knockout or decision, César Almeida wins by knockout
"Roman kopilov is most certainly going to be the lower owned guy here he's now the underdog at a favorite price tag"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody picks Kopylov, arguing he can mix in wrestling to neutralize Almeida's kickboxing. He notes Kopylov has trained wrestling in Dagestan and has shown takedown defense. Cody believes Kopylov can take Almeida down and grind him out, or catch him overextending. He acknowledges Almeida's kickboxing credentials but thinks Kopylov's MMA skills will prevail. He takes a shoey bet on Kopylov.

"I got to go with Kopylov... he's presented with a 36-year-old guy who's a good kickboxer but can't wrestle... why not take him down?"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
César Almeida

Daniel flips a coin to decide, acknowledging both are good strikers. He notes Almeida's elite kickboxing credentials but questions the transition to MMA. He says it's a pick'em and goes with Almeida due to the coin flip.

"I don't have a pick but since I flipped the coin and it landed on Almeida you know for your records you can say I'm picking Almeida"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
César Almeida

The host is impressed with Almeida's defensive grappling and striking, predicting he will outwork Kopylov. Almeida's ability to get back to his feet and his superior striking should wear down Kopylov, who has cardio issues. Even if Kopylov tries to grapple, Almeida's defensive skills will nullify him, leading to a knockout for Almeida.

knockout
"I do like Almeida here and I do like him to go out there and get that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
César Almeida

Paul picks Almeida, citing his world-class kickboxing and win over Alex Pereira (though long ago). He notes Almeida is working on his MMA skills and believes if it's a striking match, Almeida has the edge. Paul took Almeida at plus 120 earlier and likes the line movement. He acknowledges Almeida is 36 but thinks his standup is on point.

"I'll take the guy with the win with the kickboxing win over Alex Pereira... his standup is on point."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov, stating that César Almeida hasn't finished anyone legit and that his striking is not elite. He believes Kopylov is more proven in the UFC and will work into the fight, possibly mixing in grappling. He predicts Kopylov by decision, possibly finishing later rounds.

"I'm going to go with Roman copy love more experienced understands the spotlight of a pay-per-view a little bit better"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:23 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 34 of 77 44% 39 of 82 3 of 14 21% 2 0 4:05
Roman Kopylov 0 35 of 57 61% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 20 of 42 47% 23 of 45 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:05
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 29 55% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 35 40% 16 of 37 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:00
Roman Kopylov 0 19 of 28 67% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 34 of 77 44% 28 of 68 4 of 6 2 of 3 24 of 65 8 of 10 2 of 2
Roman Kopylov 35 of 57 61% 21 of 43 8 of 8 6 of 6 34 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 20 of 42 47% 16 of 35 3 of 5 1 of 2 13 of 35 6 of 6 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 14 of 35 40% 12 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 19 of 28 67% 13 of 22 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)

Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

under 2.5 rounds (potential)
"I'm going to pick Roman kopilov he's got good takedown defense hopefully his get up game has improved a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.

Hernandez by submission, round 2, anaconda choke
"give me Anthony Hernandez to win this fight by second round submission and I think it's going to be an anaconda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.

"I guess I would lean towards a dog shot on kopov but but yeah it really comes down it's like is Fluffy going to be able to get those takedowns early and often and I wouldn't be surprised if he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lock picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.

"I think this is a slam dunk... I think that the true price of this fight might sound crazy, I think fluffy Hernandez should be a minus 350 minus 400 favorite here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.

"I'll have to lean Hernandez here getting a third round submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.

"for me the pck is Fluffy Hernandez all right."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.

"I'm going Anthony Hernandez over Roman Kopylov... I think he'll be able to outgrapple him and I love his grappling."
WIN vs Josh Fremd
KO (punch to the body) R2 4:44 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 1 49 of 84 58% 54 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Josh Fremd 0 38 of 116 32% 38 of 116 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 27 of 41 65% 28 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Fremd 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
2 Roman Kopylov 1 22 of 43 51% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Josh Fremd 0 16 of 58 27% 16 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 49 of 84 58% 23 of 56 9 of 10 17 of 18 47 of 80 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Fremd 38 of 116 32% 18 of 81 8 of 13 12 of 22 37 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 27 of 41 65% 8 of 22 5 of 5 14 of 14 25 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Fremd 22 of 58 37% 5 of 37 6 of 7 11 of 14 21 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 22 of 43 51% 15 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 4 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Fremd 16 of 58 27% 13 of 44 2 of 6 1 of 8 16 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Fremd vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-355), Fremd (+280)

Round 1
Middleweights are next on the docket, as Kopylov (11-2, 3-2 UFC) tries to make it four wins in a row at 185 pounds. A Factory X representative, Fremd (11-4, 2-2 UFC) headlined multiple Legacy Fighting Alliance events prior to his signing with the UFC in 2022. Mark Smith answers the call as the third man in the cage. Fremd pumps out his jab from the start, eats a few leg kicks and scores with some shin to skin contact to the body. Kopylov continues to target the lead leg with kicks and seems content to allow the fight to come to him. A low blow from Fremd results in a brief pause before they resume their dance in the center of the cage. Fremd sneaks in front kick to the body and backs up the Russian with a multi-strike burst of hands and feet. Kopylov connects with a surgical two-punch combination. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the pocket. Fremd shoots on a single-leg but gets nowhere. Kopylov breaks away with punches, takes the center of the cage and uncorks his educated hands. He follows them with a kick to the body. Momentum is starting to turn here. Fremd shoots on another takedown attempt with 20 seconds left, only to get denied. Kopylov lands with a spinning backfist and an uppercut to close the round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
Kopylov drives a left hand into the body, follows with an uppercut and goes back upstairs with his hands, knocking Fremd off-balance. Fremd paws with his jab and whiffs on a takedown, then eats a head kick. Damage has started to build on his face and his body. Kopylov denies a single-leg takedown, pushes away the American. Fremd’s mouth is wide open, likely due to difficulty breathing through a bloody nose. Kopylov picks his shots but catches another kick low. Smith pauses the action and issues another warning. Kopylov goes to the body and head with a beautiful combination. He backs away and narrowly misses a lunging right uppercut. A savage kick to the body forces Fremd to drop his hands. Kopylov wisely follows with a head kick.
A left hook to the liver drops Fremd to all fours and results in an immediate stoppage
.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Josh Fremd—KO (Punch to the Body) 4:44 R2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo is very confident in Roman Kopylov, calling him the best value on the card at -275. He highlights Kopylov's high-level kickboxing and improved takedown defense. He dismisses Josh Fremd's grappling threat, noting Fremd struggled to take down Jamie Pickett. He believes Kopylov's striking is next level and Fremd cannot hang on the feet.

"Roman copy love is the best value on this card what's Josh gonna do take him down he struggled to take down Jamie Pickett"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady likes Kopylov to win, citing his improved striking, durability, and body work. He notes Kopylov has been training in Dagestan to improve his wrestling and has looked better each fight. He expects Kopylov to stuff takedowns, break Fremd down with body shots, and finish him in the second or third round. He is less confident at the current minus 400 odds but still picks the win.

second round knockout
"I like copy love here I like copy love to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody picks Kopylov confidently, detailing his improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He notes Kopylov's durability, power, and recent finishes. He is concerned about Fremd's cardio and wrestling but believes Kopylov will win, possibly by knockout.

"kopov is definitely the pick I will be betting it but just how much exposure do you really want on it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel Levi picks Roman Kopylov but is not interested at the current odds of minus-410, as the line opened at minus-140. He praises Kopylov's clean hands, precise striking, and improved takedown defense, but notes that Josh Fremd has not yet shown his regional form in the UFC. Levi believes Kopylov will win but considers it a dog-or-pass situation at these prices.

opened minus-140, now minus-410; says 'dog or pass' at current price
"my pick is going to be Roman but I'm not interested at these odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Fremd is a Factory X product with improving grappling, cage pushing, and submission threats. Kopylov has cardio issues and has been slowing down in fights. Fremd should close the distance, wear on Kopylov with takedowns and clinch work, and potentially get a second or third round finish. I like the decision prop or a late finish for Fremd at plus 240.

decision prop
"I think that friend does a better job in terms of closing the distance and not making his uh wrestling attempts or shot attempts as obvious... look for from to utilize his range striking try to close a distance where …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Paul picks Kopylov but notes the minus 405 line is too high to bet. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent improvements in takedown defense and striking, and sees him as the clear winner. He mentions Fremd's recent weight miss and poor performance against Jamie Pickett.

"copala will be the pick but I won't be betting it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Josh Fremd, stating Kopylov is at a different class. He praises Kopylov's recent performances, including a head kick KO of Claudio Ribeiro, and believes he has improved his wrestling. He criticizes Fremd's lack of power and ability to win a gritty fight. He predicts a late second or third round TKO for Kopylov.

TKO win
"I'm gonna go with Roman copy love here I think he's just at a different class to Josh friend"
KO/TKO R2 0:33 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.

"Roman's going to be the pick quite literally because I don't think Paula is going to use all of his tools."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.

Kopylov by late finish or decision
"I'm taking Copilov here. I'll take Copilov to either get a late finish or win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.

"I got to pick Roman Kopylov. 100%."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.

"In terms of a prediction, I expect him to win. And I expect him to point out point Costa utilizing some grappling and striking to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.

Paulo Costa lands less than 63.5 significant strikes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going with Roman Copilov over Paulo Costa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.

"I just don't trust Costa to show up the right way for Kopylov."