vs
+160 -175
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mario Bautista
5.3 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.98 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.91 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ricky Simón
3.03 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.9 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
4.49 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Mario Bautista
Moneyline
BetRivers +160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
BetRivers +400
Ricky Simón
Moneyline
Caesars -175
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +550
Decision
FanDuel +140
Mario Bautista - Fight History
SCHED vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Submission R2 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 63 5 of 7 71% 1 0 5:47
Vinicius Oliveira 0 12 of 21 57% 18 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 9 33% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Mario Bautista 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 3:29
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 15 of 27 55% 10 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 12 0 of 2 9 of 13
Vinicius Oliveira 12 of 21 57% 3 of 10 3 of 5 6 of 6 9 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 9 33% 1 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 12 of 18 66% 9 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 2 7 of 8
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 3 of 9 0 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)

Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.

"Mario Batista is going to be the pick. I think Mario can go dog for dog with Venicious and he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.

by third round submission
"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win this fight. I'm going to say he wins this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.

"I think I'm going to go the opposite end on Venicius Olivera... this guy's about as big as 135 pounds as you're possibly going to get."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.

Same odds discussion as Zane.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.

under 4.5 rounds, Mario Bautista wins in round 4 or 5
"My prediction will be Mario Batista to get this one done in the championship rounds inside the distance, probably submission for the first time in Venicious Olivivera's career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.

inside the distance
"So, give me Maru Bautista inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes the distance
"My concerns for Olive Vera here, obviously he's had quite the run... I do have concerns about his gas tank in a five round fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.

decision 4 rounds to 1
"I think he'll win a decision, five four rounds to one. A four rounds to one decision win for Mario Bautista."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.

Bautista opened at -140, currently -160; Oliveira opened at +120, currently +140. Zane thinks the line is fair and could go to -200.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
CANCEL vs Marlon Vera
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
WIN vs Patchy Mix
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 173 of 302 57% 173 of 302 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 122 of 304 40% 122 of 304 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 36 of 74 48% 36 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 103 63% 65 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 59 of 111 53% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 108 60% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 27 of 119 22% 27 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 173 of 302 57% 96 of 216 58 of 66 19 of 20 172 of 301 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 122 of 304 40% 92 of 265 14 of 22 16 of 17 118 of 299 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 43 of 91 47% 18 of 60 18 of 24 7 of 7 43 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 36 of 74 48% 22 of 58 5 of 7 9 of 9 35 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 65 of 103 63% 42 of 78 20 of 21 3 of 4 64 of 102 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 59 of 111 53% 49 of 96 5 of 9 5 of 6 56 of 108 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 65 of 108 60% 36 of 78 20 of 21 9 of 9 65 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 27 of 119 22% 21 of 111 4 of 6 2 of 2 27 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.

"I am going to pick Patchy though. ... Josh's confidence in Patchy and how good he is and how he's going to dominate here is pretty contagious."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.

Mix by submission in round 2
"I think Patchy gets Batista down here. And once he gets him down, I think he's staying there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Connor thinks the odds are fair.
"I think I'm going to pick Patchy Mix."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.

"I think that we're going to see Bautista shut down the grappling game of Mitch or Mix and then eventually outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker and from there he'll be able to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.

Finish prediction: first or second round submission (guillotine or anaconda). Mentions a $10K bonus for a brutal finish.
"I've got Patchy Mix finishing Mario Batista and there's 10K on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Zane thinks the odds are close and reasonable.
"I got to pick Mario Batista here."
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
WIN vs Ricky Simón
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
Ricky Simón - Fight History
Draw vs Adrian Yañez
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky Simón 0 44 of 139 31% 52 of 149 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:06
Adrian Yañez 1 71 of 169 42% 73 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky Simón 0 12 of 55 21% 12 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adrian Yañez 0 16 of 46 34% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ricky Simón 0 15 of 35 42% 23 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:06
Adrian Yañez 0 15 of 29 51% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ricky Simón 0 17 of 49 34% 17 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adrian Yañez 1 40 of 94 42% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky Simón 44 of 139 31% 33 of 121 7 of 13 4 of 5 38 of 132 2 of 2 4 of 5
Adrian Yañez 71 of 169 42% 63 of 159 6 of 8 2 of 2 67 of 156 0 of 0 4 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky Simón 12 of 55 21% 9 of 48 1 of 4 2 of 3 12 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 16 of 46 34% 15 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ricky Simón 15 of 35 42% 13 of 31 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 2 of 2 4 of 5
Adrian Yañez 15 of 29 51% 13 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ricky Simón 17 of 49 34% 11 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 40 of 94 42% 35 of 88 3 of 4 2 of 2 36 of 81 0 of 0 4 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because he believes Simon's relentless pressure and wrestling will negate Yanez's technical striking. He notes that Simon's takedown defense was exposed against Honey Balcelos, but Balcelos is a high-level wrestler, while Yanez has no offensive takedowns. Angelo also mentions the hometown advantage and the possibility of a close decision, but expects Simon's wrestling to be effective enough to secure the win.

"I think Ricky's pressure is going to negate the technical striking. I think he's going to open up the takedowns."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Big Brady picks Ricky Simón to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He notes that Simón has been on a three-fight losing streak and his cardio and wrestling have declined. However, he believes Simón's wrestling upside is key, as Adrian Yañez has not faced a wrestler in the UFC. Simón is the hometown fighter, and Brady thinks he can mix in takedowns, cage push, and win minutes in the clinch to secure a decision.

Simón by decision
"I think Ricky Simón can cage push here, win minutes in the clinch. I think he can mix in the takedowns, and I think he wins this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yanez, believing his striking and takedown defense will be enough to win rounds. He's concerned about Simon's hometown advantage but thinks Yanez lands the more significant shots.

"My official pick is actually Adrian Yanez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Connor picks Yañez, thinking that Simón doesn't want to win just by holding someone down and will engage in the pocket, where Yañez can catch him. He notes that Simón is square and takes his eyes off the target, and Yañez has power.

"I'm going to take Yanya's."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel believes Yanez's boxing and takedown defense will be too much for Simon, who he thinks is past his best. He cites sources saying Yanez is sharp again and likes the underdog value.

"I'm picking Adrian Yanez as an underdog pick here at UFC Seattle."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Ricky Simón

The host picks Simón despite his poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of wrestle. He argues that Simón's wrestling is his path to victory, and Yanez's takedown defense is inflated because he has only faced strikers. Footage from Yanez's fight against Daniel Marcos shows he can be taken down and held down easily. However, the host warns that Simón may not commit to grappling, making this a risky bet.

Pass on fight spread and over/under; odds not favorable.
"If you came to me and you said, 'Hey Chris, I've got a crystal ball... I can promise you Ricky Simon will grapple his dick off for 15 minutes nonstop.' I'd be like, 'Great. Let's bet 100 units on Simon.'"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host sees Yañez as the better striker with good takedown defense and getups, allowing him to keep the fight standing. He believes Yañez's striking edge and reach advantage will allow him to piece up Simón, and he even suggests Yañez might score a knockout. He notes Simón's reliance on power and wrestling, but thinks Yañez can avoid the big shots and find a finish.

knockout
"I still think that Yanz will showcase his striking in edge here, which is why I like him as a plus uh 125 dog. I think so much so that he might even be able to uncor a big knockout …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Paul leans Simon, citing his wrestling and hometown crowd. He thinks Simon's control time could sway judges, especially with the Seattle crowd.

"I think Simon wins this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ricky Simón

The MMA Guru picks Ricky Simón, noting his improved demeanor and grappling ability. He believes Simón is well-rounded enough to grapple his way to a decision victory. He criticizes Adrian Yañez's recent performances, pointing out losses to Rob Font and Daniel Marcos, and suggests Yañez struggles against capable opponents. He expects Simón to mix in grappling and land good shots on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Ricky Simone. He looks mean for this one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ricky Simón

Zane picks Simón for the wrestling, noting that Simón has shown more interest in keeping people down recently. He is hesitant because Yañez has good defensive wrestling and is a higher output fighter, but he thinks Simón's wrestling will be the difference in a close fight.

"I think I'm going to take Ricky Simone here for the wrestling."
LOSS vs Raoni Barcelos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky Simón 0 67 of 181 37% 77 of 191 0 of 6 0% 0 1 1:25
Raoni Barcelos 0 82 of 187 43% 86 of 194 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky Simón 0 24 of 52 46% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Raoni Barcelos 0 16 of 33 48% 19 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:09
2 Ricky Simón 0 16 of 47 34% 16 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Raoni Barcelos 0 32 of 71 45% 33 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ricky Simón 0 27 of 82 32% 27 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Raoni Barcelos 0 34 of 83 40% 34 of 83 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky Simón 67 of 181 37% 57 of 165 9 of 15 1 of 1 58 of 170 3 of 4 6 of 7
Raoni Barcelos 82 of 187 43% 53 of 150 19 of 24 10 of 13 80 of 184 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky Simón 24 of 52 46% 20 of 46 4 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 42 2 of 3 6 of 7
Raoni Barcelos 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ricky Simón 16 of 47 34% 13 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 32 of 71 45% 21 of 57 8 of 9 3 of 5 32 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ricky Simón 27 of 82 32% 24 of 75 3 of 7 0 of 0 27 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 34 of 83 40% 23 of 67 8 of 12 3 of 4 33 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Ricky Simon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-160); Barcelos (+130)

Round 1
Sticking to the bantamweight division but flipping over to men, a pair of relative elder statesmen in the promotion come to blows with hopes of pushing their unlikely win streaks one step forward. Some six and a half years after getting wasted by Urijah Faber and totally written off, Simon (22-6, 10-5 UFC) has gone on a pair of respectable runs since then. The same can be said for 38-year-old Barcelos (20-5, 9-4 UFC), who once had a rough patch where he dropped four of five. Someone’s fortuitous stretch is about to crash into the proverbial wall, and referee Keith Peterson will follow the athletes every step of the nonsense-free way. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Simon sprints to the center of the cage and looses a head kick that goes wide. He pushes out a front kick, and Barcelos whizzes past him with a fireball of a right hand. Barcelos jabs the body and allows Simon to leap at him, staying out of range so there is no strike to come from it. Simon sticks the Brazilian and moves, and Barcelos strides forward and is belted with an uppercut. Barcelos takes it well, and the two consider grappling but bail on it to brawl it out. Both men are putting everything into their swings, and Barcelos clips Simon and then shoots in for a double. Simon scrambles wildly and flips Barcelos over, where he starts smacking Barcelos around with high-arcing hammerfists.
Simon lashes out with elbows while Barcelos keeps him contained with butterfly hooks, and both men trade while in a horizontal position until Barcelos kicks off to stand up. Simon reaches him at the end of a right hand, and Barcelos wings on the overhand right counter. Simon dings the Brazilian with a one-two, and his jab is money. Barcelos smashes Simon in the face with a ruthless right hand, and somehow Simon not only sticks with it but returns fire with an uppercut that nearly lifts his man off the ground. Both men are no worse for wear from the mighty exchange, and Simon tries to sneak in a head kick that is blocked in time. Barcelos opens up upstairs with a pair of punches, and Simon backs him off with jabs. Barcelos tries to take the fight down, and he abandons it to slash out with an elbow up top. A final Simon takedown is blocked to end what was a close, tense round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Barcelos starts off the round with a double jab and a right hand up top. Simon swings back with a huge overhand right, and Barcelos ducks it and plants a right on the jaw. Barcelos times a thumping calf kick and overswings on a right hand while chasing the man, and Simon knees him in the jaw. Barcelos digs a left to the body, and Simon’s quick kick and right hand greet him in rapid succession. Barcelos scrapes the side of his uppercut off the head, and he drops down for a low single and hurls Simon to a knee. Simon scrambles out of reach and gets back to his feet, only for Barcelos to ring his bell with a crisp uppercut and a power right hand. Barcelos crashes into his foe with a leaping uppercut, and Simon tries to time a double when he lands. Simon pushes Barcelos up against the wire, but the sprawl of Barcelos prevents the Washington native from going anywhere. Barcelos escapes with little more than a knee to the belly, and he allows Simon to circle all the way around him so he can find his angle in. Simon lands first with a right, but Barcelos connects last and the heavier of the two.
Barcelos goes to the body and then head, and he scoops Simon up and deposits him gingerly on the canvas. Simon jumps right back up, and Barcelos does not mind as he can trade hands with his foe. Simon scores an uppercut, and Barcelos reaches him with three punches over the guard. A naked leg kick from Simon is met with a two-punch salvo, and Barcelos rips a right to the body to punctuate the combo. Simon counters a low kick with a right hand, and Barcelos stands firm and jacks him in the jaw with a right hand and an uppercut. Simon dances and keeps Barcelos guessing with awkward movement, entries and exits that rely on speed and potshots with evasive movement. They both shoot at the same time and clash heads like bulls, and proceed to trade punches and kicks to end what is another tight round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The final round opens with the Brazilian pushing the pace. He watches Simon attack and sways to dodge everything but an uppercut, and he storms back to nail Simon with a one-two that forces a takedown shot. Barcelos sits down on a right hand, Simon replies, and Barcelos comes over the top. Barcelos leaps in and lands a right after Simon’s strike connects on him, and Simon’s jab has bloodied the bridge of the Brazilian’s beak. Barcelos rubs his nose and busts Simon in the chops with a stiff right hand. Simon’s one-two also scores, but Barcelos still has the power edge and is putting more strikes together.
Both men go back and forth with their offensive offerings, with Simon just missing an uppercut when Barcelos ducked down. Barcelos jams a knee to the body, and he plants his shin on the side of Simon’s lead leg. Barcelos drops down for a snatch single, and he releases it and busts open Simon’s nose with power punches. Barcelos follows a punch with a high kick, and then goes back to a one-two. Simon’s stabbing jab is effective, as is his overhand right and uppercut to follow, but Barcelos stuns him when landing flush. Barcelos’ rights have Simon’s attention, and Simon tries to walk him down to attack the liver but finds himself in a slugfest. Barcelos goes after a double and bails on it to come back with an elbow, and knees fly from both men effectively after. Simon steps in with a sharp elbow, and both fighters unload their gas tanks and swing for the bleachers. Simon takes a kick in the face and screams for Barcelos to keep engaging, and they bang it out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because of his non-stop wrestling pace and power in his hands. He believes even if Raoni Barcelos has early takedown defense, Simon's relentless pressure will eventually get takedowns. He notes that Barcelos is aging and that wrestlers are not spectacular off their backs.

"I'm still picking Ricky here. I feel pretty good about it. Ricky's wrestling is non-stop, so even if Haney has early takedown defense, I don't think it's going to remain throughout 15 full minutes."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady struggles with this pick, noting Simón has looked awful in recent fights and may be slowing down due to accumulated damage. He thinks Barcelos has better striking and both have questionable chins. He leans with the 38-year-old Barcelos to win by decision, but admits it's a sketchy pick.

decision
"I'm going to lean with the 38-year-old and Barcelos to win this fight by decision, but this is one that's definitely sketching me out a little bit."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and superior boxing volume. He thinks Simón's wrestling will be neutralized and Barcelos will outwork him over three rounds.

"Overall after 15 minutes, Ronnie Barcelos should have the bigger and greater body of work. So he should get the nod in my opinion and I'm gonna pick him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Lucrative James is confident in Ricky Simón, going against the market. He believes Simón's wrestling and cardio advantage will be key, as Barcelos ages and has shown a deteriorating chin and gas tank. He expects Simón to mix takedowns and land big overhands, possibly finishing Barcelos. He also notes Barcelos has been hurt in recent fights.

"I'm going to pick Ricky Simone. I think Ricky Simone can hurt and actually finish Barcelos on the feet with big overhands."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

The host acknowledges Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but believes Simón's wrestling, athleticism, speed, and power will be decisive. He expects Simón to find a big shot and knock Barcelos out.

Knockout
"I believe Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but Simone is the better wrestler and closer to his prime. And I think that should allow him to utilize his athleticism advantage, speed advantage, and power edge."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Paul sees it as a 50/50 fight but likes Barcelos at plus money. He thinks if Simón can't get takedowns, Barcelos's striking and experience will carry him.

"Rowdy at plus 140, plus 150 seems like a decent little shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

The Guru picks Ricky Simón to win by first-round TKO. He believes Simón's well-rounded game and explosiveness will overwhelm the aging Barcelos, who relies on exploiting specific weaknesses. He notes Simón has no glaring holes in his grappling or pressure defense, unlike Barcelos's previous opponents.

round 1 TKO
"I'm going to go Ricky Simone getting this one done by a TKO finish in the first round."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky Simón 0 34 of 74 45% 50 of 94 3 of 10 30% 0 0 9:13
Cameron Smotherman 0 29 of 99 29% 33 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky Simón 0 7 of 13 53% 19 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:27
Cameron Smotherman 0 1 of 6 16% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ricky Simón 0 16 of 31 51% 20 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:56
Cameron Smotherman 0 11 of 37 29% 12 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ricky Simón 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:50
Cameron Smotherman 0 17 of 56 30% 18 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky Simón 34 of 74 45% 22 of 62 4 of 4 8 of 8 28 of 62 4 of 6 2 of 6
Cameron Smotherman 29 of 99 29% 23 of 89 5 of 9 1 of 1 25 of 94 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky Simón 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 3
Cameron Smotherman 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ricky Simón 16 of 31 51% 8 of 23 3 of 3 5 of 5 14 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 3
Cameron Smotherman 11 of 37 29% 9 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ricky Simón 11 of 30 36% 9 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 27 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cameron Smotherman 17 of 56 30% 14 of 49 3 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 52 3 of 4 0 of 0
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Ricky Simon vs. Cameron Smotherman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-440), Smotherman (+340)

Round 1
On short notice, Simon (21-6, 9-5 UFC) now stands across the cage from high-flying Fury FC product Smotherman (12-5, 1-1 UFC). Simon was initially expected to battle Charles Jourdain, but it is what it is now. The bantamweights will be joined in the cage by referee Blake Grice, who claps them in as they choose to tap their gloves together. Smotherman jabs and low kicks, and Simon does the same. Simon turns his hips into one thudding kick, and he suddenly goes high with a kick that Smotherman barely blocks in time. Both swipe at the other with hooks, and Simon drops levels, stutter-steps and shoots for a single-leg takedown. Simon lifts Smotherman all the way in the air and chucks him to the mat, where Smotherman is quick to sit up against the wire. Simon hooks one leg in and starts peppering Smotherman with free left hands, and Smotherman is stuck unable to get back up. When Smotherman attempts to stand, Simon wrenches him back down again. Simon isolates Smotherman’s left arm in pursuit of a kimura, and Smotherman gives up position to defend against it. Simon takes advantage of this to step into full mount, and he allows Smotherman to turn over so he can start fishing for a rear-naked choke. Simon cannot get his hooks in, so Smotherman is able to fight back to his feet with about 30 seconds left in the round. Simon leans on him against the wire, kneeing him in the side of the head while trying to drag Smotherman back down. Simon rides out the round squeezing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Simon

Round 2
Smotherman takes the center of the cage and marches forward to start off the second round, looking for a hook that he cannot find yet. Simon loops a right hand around the guard and plunks the front leg with a kick, and he dodges the counter to weave a right hand up top. Simon kicks the front leg and keeps his guard up to block the right hand aimed down the pipe, and he walks into a pair of punches but does not budge. Instead, Simon leaps in the air with a knee, and he lands and grabs hold of a double. Simon tackles Smotherman to his back, placing himself in half guard while exerting heavy shoulder pressure. Simon flattens his man out when Smotherman tries to buck and twist to get out, and he slashes down with a pair of elbows. Simon leans back a slight amount to wrap his arm around Smotherman’s neck, either for a guillotine setup or to push Smotherman down. Simon spins around to grab his foe from behind, and Smotherman stands back up in the process. Simon leans on Smotherman from the back while jamming Smotherman against the wall, and Smotherman starts chattering towards the grapple-heavy adversary. Simon ignores it and continues to embrace the grind, transitioning a single to a double and back to a single. Smotherman looks for a standing ninja choke, but Simon wriggles his neck out without concern. “The Baby-Faced Killer” drives a knee down the middle, and when it succeeds, he goes for another. Simon shrugs them off and loops a right hand up top and a left to the liver. Simon narrowly avoids a looping right hand as he scores a low kick, and Smotherman’s final strike of the round is a front kick to the chest. Grice has to get between the two when the horn sounds, ushering them back to their corners. Smotherman does not appear to be a happy man right now.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Simon

Round 3
Smotherman is fired up between rounds, and he starts throwing hands and grins when Simon obliges him. Simon takes a jab on the forehead and showboats while dodging the two follow-ups, looking away from the swinging Texan. Simon clips Smotherman with a right hand on the temple, and he grabs hold of Smotherman in a body lock and throws him to his knees. Smotherman powers back up to his feet, but Simon is a dog with a bone as he tries to go from a double to a single to a body lock. Simon pursues a double again when the other efforts fail, and Smotherman’s defense holds up even as he is stuck against the wire. Smotherman pushes off a knee, forcing Simon to wing two punches and shoot in for a double that finally succeeds. Smotherman is placed on his seat, and Simon holds him down and keeps his arms wrapped around a single to keep him in place. Smotherman still gets back to his feet, and he shakes Simon up with an elbow. Smotherman walks him down, firing a left to the body and a right to the head. When Simon counters, Smotherman hits him with a step-in knee. Simon eats a left hook to fire one back, and his right hand gets Smotherman’s attention and tells him it will not be as easy as walking through him with heavy fists. Simon shoots hard for a single, and Smotherman responds with a ninja choke and backs himself to the fencing. Simon is completely unfazed by the submission attempt, not budging and instead pressing on Smotherman until Smotherman bails on it. Smotherman breaks out of the takedown attempt and clinch to drive a pair of lefts to the liver and temple. Simon jabs to beat him to the punch a few times, and Smotherman is winding up with everything he has with his right hand. Simon is able to intercept him when he launches those missiles, slipping the most dangerous of the punches and hitting Smotherman back. Smotherman jabs to the body with the ball of his foot, winging a left to the same spot and a right up top. Simon shrugs at him, but he got stung with the power strikes. Smotherman unloads with pure power, tagging Simon a few times and eating some responsive blows until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Simon (30-27 Simon)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman (29-28 Simon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman (29-28 Simon)

The Official Result
Ricky Simon def. Cameron Smotherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ricky Simón

Connor is confident in Simón, believing his confidence is restored after a recent knockout win. He notes that Simón is a busy, multi-level fighter with good wrestling and striking, while Smotherman is not at this level and will give away initiative. Connor thinks Simón's speed and aggression will overwhelm Smotherman, who struggled against rangy fighters.

"I think that this fight against Smotherman is only going to help."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ricky Simón

The Guru picks Ricky Simón, noting he is 'barely a favorite' and sees value. He highlights Simón's momentum from a KO win over Javid Basharat and his power in the pocket. He criticizes Smotherman's quick turnaround after a loss where he took damage, and trusts Simón's fundamentals and grappling options.

"I actually think this is really good odds for Ricky Simone. He's barely a favorite here. I know he's stepping up and you know Cameron Smotherman lost his last fight and he's stepping in and this is a bit of …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ricky Simón

Zane agrees that Simón is too good across the board. He notes that Smotherman is a good athlete but lacks initiative and will be stuck in place against Simón's pressure. Zane points out that Simón's wrestling and striking are superior, and that Smotherman's recent loss showed his limitations. He calls it a terrible fight for Smotherman on short notice.

"Simone is way too good across the board."
CANCEL vs Charles Jourdain
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Angelo picks Ricky Simón because of his relentless wrestling and cardio. He believes Charles does not have good enough takedown defense to stop multiple shots. He notes that Ricky's losses are to top competition and he is consistent.

"This should be Ricky all day long."
KO R1 3:58 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky Simón 1 11 of 21 52% 18 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:16
Javid Basharat 0 20 of 36 55% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky Simón 1 11 of 21 52% 18 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:16
Javid Basharat 0 20 of 36 55% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky Simón 11 of 21 52% 9 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Javid Basharat 20 of 36 55% 12 of 27 7 of 7 1 of 2 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky Simón 11 of 21 52% 9 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Javid Basharat 20 of 36 55% 12 of 27 7 of 7 1 of 2 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Angelo picks Javid Basharat but is hesitant because of Javid's frustratingly passive performance in his last fight. He acknowledges Ricky Simón's relentless wrestling pressure and cardio could sway judges if Javid is too patient. He trusts Javid's takedown defense and superior striking, but admits it's hard to be confident given Javid's tendency to stare.

"Javid is going to be the pick... I'm going to chill though because if I had to trust one of these two to stick to something, it actually would be Ricky."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Big Brady picks Javid Basharat despite not loving the -300 price tag. He notes that Ricky Simón looks washed at only 32, with poor recent performances against Vinicius Oliveira, Mario Bautista, and Song Yadong. He believes Simón needs to wrestle for 15 minutes but doubts he can take down or hold down Basharat. He predicts Basharat wins by decision.

by decision
"I got to pick bosra and I got to pick him to win by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

The host notes Simón is on a three-fight losing streak and faces a tough opponent in Basharat, who has stellar takedown defense and superior striking. He expects Basharat to pick Simón apart from distance and win on the scorecards.

"look for bashat to utilize has Stellar takedown defense and in a superior striking game picking in part Ricky Simone from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Javid Basharat

The Guru feels Ricky Simón has lost his mojo, citing recent losses where he was walked down. He believes Basharat is at a level similar to Victor Henry and will outpoint Simón in a striking fight. He doesn't see Simón overpowering Basharat in grappling or striking, predicting a decision win for Basharat.

"I'm gonna have to go with Javid basharat I can only imagine he's taking his foot off the pedal when it comes to training"
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
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Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-218), Oliveira (+180)

Round 1
At long last, UFC 303 is upon us, but not how many would have hoped. In the weeks prior to the event, the final three bouts on the lineup transformed dramatically. Before we get to those, there will be 10 other matchups pleasing fight fans throughout the billing, with some fascinating stylistic clashes and others that promise immediate violence. We start off in the bantamweight division, where perennial contender Simon (20-5, 8-4 UFC) looks to get back in the win column after a rare skid. He faces high-flying Brazilian Oliveira (20-3, 1-0 UFC), who has seen 19 of his 23 pro outings end by knockout, win or lose. Referee Mark Smith is on call for the first fight of the night, geared up for what could be something wild. There is no fist bump to get things going, perhaps in part to the fiery weigh-ins the night before. The two feint and fake at one another in the opening 20 seconds, and Oliveira lunges for a few strikes but misses the mark. Oliveira prods out a front kick to the midsection and skirts away, his hands low as he aims a low calf kick. Simon reaches him with two punches up top, and Oliveira slips away from the rest. The Brazilian misses the mark with a jumping front kick, but his leg kick that follows does connect. Simon rushes him to get off a few punches before evading the counter. Oliveira uses his front kick as a jab, and he follows one with a rifling one-two down the middle. Oliveira switches stances regularly, keeping Simon guessing and flicking out a sharp left and a heavy right. Simon keeps his guard up to defend the worst of the blows, and he slams a low kick on the rear shin before crashing the pocket to sling “Lok Dog” to the canvas. Oliveira jumps right back up and stabs out a right hand that gets Simon’s attention, and Simon tags him with a counter that makes Oliveira drop his hands and march forward like a Terminator. Oliveira lets Simon have it with a number of unanswered leg kicks, and he whiffs on a head kick. Simon gets off a right hand, and Oliveira jabs him back. Oliveira walks through jabs, taking one on the nose and shrugging his shoulders before loosing a head kick that pounds into the guard. Oliveira gets off another head kick that nails the guard, and Simon dips down and lands a body shot that skips off the cup. Oliveira signals to Smith that he is fine, and he gets back to a stalking mode where his hands are low and he is swinging hard. Simon rushes at him to tie him up, but Oliveira wants nothing to do with it. Simon times a right hand as Oliveira ducks, and Oliveira shakes it off and tosses out two kicks. Simon snaps the head back as a gob of saliva launches from the mouth of “Lok Dog,” and they trade hands until the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 2
Oliveira marches out of his corner, shouting something at Simon to get started. Oliveira’s hands low, he engages in a brief slugfest, and a left hand from Simon smashes into his ear and breaks open the cauliflower, resulting in a trickle of blood streaming down his neck. Oliveira laughs off anything Simon throws at him and lobs back hooks, and the two end up in the clinch until “Lok Dog” wants to push off and swing hands. Simon shoots through the hips with a solid double-leg takedown entry, and he lands on top comfortably. Oliveira keeps moving, and he scrambles back to his feet without issue. Simon ducks a punch and lifts Oliveira off the ground to slam him down to a knee, and when Oliveira tries to recover, Simon looks to take his back standing. Simon lets loose with a sharp elbow from a close proximity, and Oliveira pushes off and takes a deep breath. The punches from the Brazilian are labored less than two minutes into the second round, although his leg kicks do keep landing. Oliveira is frustrated about a warning to close his fingers, and he snaps out a jab that draws a frown from the Washington native. Simon looks for his own jab, all while trying to meander around the unorthodox looping punches from “Lok Dog.” Oliveira goes all power, and Simon blocks the strikes and drives him back with a few straight punches and a body shot. Simon attempts a takedown, and Oliveira stonewalls him and pursues a spinning wheel kick that Simon evades. Oliveira chains several strikes together including a few leg kicks, and he stumbles and returns to his feet to keep attacking. A few punches from Oliveira get through to shake up Simon, who escapes out the side and whips a head kick at the Brazilian’s melon. Oliveira takes it without issue and swings back with bad intentions, and he defends a takedown shot and uses rangy strikes to get to Simon. As Oliveira lazily tosses out calf kicks, Simon checks a few, and Oliveira staggers back, compromised from the defense. Simon rushes at him, letting his hands go. The two trade leather until the bell rings, and Simon barks at his opponent. Oliveira does not know what to do when hearing this, and he punches Simon in the face well after the round ended. Smith drags him to the corner while shouting at him, and cooler heads prevail to get to the third round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 3
Physicians come in to assess the damage of Oliveira’s leg, and he is cleared to continue. Oliveira rushes out of his corner once more, but this time, Simon meets him in the middle to trade with him. Simon ducks the punch and lets go with a kick, and he engages in a back-and-forth session of strikes with him coming out slightly better. Simon pushes Oliveira back, and he checks a kick as Oliveira shakes his head uncomfortably. Simon leads off with punches, and Oliveira pushes off and a finger jabs into Simon’s eye. Oliveira shakes his finger as if to say it was from a punch, and Smith does not call anything. Simon fails on one takedown attempt, and his second is much deeper but he is spun around on the fence. Oliveira breaks free and jabs out with a front kick, circling to the left and switching stances regularly. Oliveira sticks out several jabs in an effort to launch a big right hand to follow, and he jabs the body and starts showboating and raising his hands to signal for Simon to fight him. Oliveira blocks a head kick and gives him one back, and he motions to Simon that his was much more effective. Oliveira walks Simon down, backing off only to block the offense his way, and he loops a left hand over the top. When Oliveira lets go with two punches, Simon shoots in for a double, and “Lok Dog” shuts it down and strings a number of punches and a kick together. Simon cannot reach his man, and Oliveira tags him back and raises his arms in the air to celebrate. Oliveira lands a few shots and looks over to his corner in a Max Holloway-esque display, and he decides to change things up and take Simon down. Oliveira backs off to stand back up, and he uses several unusual strikes including a kick behind his other leg to mess with Simon. Oliveira lands a head kick right at the bell, and the two stop fighting and hug it out to squash any beef that may have developed between them.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)

The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
LOSS vs Song Yadong
KO/TKO R5 1:10 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
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Ricky Simon vs. Yadong Song
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-115), Song (-105)

Round 1
This bantamweight clash was supposed to be a co-main event one week ago before UFC Fight Night 223 lost its originally scheduled headliner. Now Song and Simon get two extra rounds with which to work. Herb Dean gets the final officiating assignment of the night. Simon tests the waters with a high kick and front kick. Song defends without issue. Simon lands a leg kick as both fighters remain patient. Song sidesteps a takedown and lands a leg kick. Song steps in with a knee and misses a right hand. Song blocks a body kick and then lands a hard one of his own. Song catches a kick and Simon spins out of it. A 1-2 connects for Simon and Song responds with a leg kick. Simon doubles up on his jab and follows with a right. They clinch against the fence and battle for position before Simon shakes his foe off. Simon lands a clubbing right. A leg kick connects for Simon and Song smiles. A left lands for Song and then Simon can’t finish a takedown. Song avoids a level change and fires off punches as Simon moves out of danger. Another three-punch combo lands for Simon and Song answers with a leg kick. Simon sticks a jab before the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Simon

Round 2
Song opens with a front kick to the midsection. He follows up with a leg kick and Simon backs him up with a combination. Simon lands another jab. Another jab for Simon gets through. Song backs up Simon with a powerful combination and Simon briefly falls to the canvas after a clash of heads. He quickly transitions to a double leg takedown, giving him time to recover. Song is able to scramble up in a hurry. Simon sticks his jab and Song responds with a hard right to the body. Song with a push kick down the middle and Simon circles away. A clean left hook catches Simon. Another hard left lands for Song, who seems to have found his timing. Simon backs up his foe with multiple jabs. Song pressures and swings heavy leather. Simon continues to work his jab, but Song is undeterred. Song lands a leg kick. Simon evades some jabs but Song lands a left to the liver. Simon eats a right but gets a takedown in the waning moments of the round. He unloads with a flurry of hammerfists from above while Song attacks from his back in a frantic final exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
Song kicks the lead leg and avoids a hook. Simon shoots for a takedown but Song stuffs it and they’re back at distance. Song tries to land another body shot during an exchange but it lands below the belt, and time is called. Simon needs less than a minute to recover and the fight resumes. Simon just dodges a head kick but Song does connect with a leg kick. Song with two more leg kicks. Simon jabs and follows with a takedown but Song easily evades it. Song misses a pair of high kicks but he digs a left hook to the body moments later. A right lands clean for Song. A left from Song puts Simon on wobbly legs, and he circles away. A right to the body finds a home for Simon. Song pressures with punches and Simon circles away. A right uppercut lands to the body for Song. Song misses a high kick followed by a spinning back fist. The round concludes with Song being warned by Dean for leading with his head.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 4
Simon fires off a combination but Song dodges it. Song lands a leg kick. Simon hits a low kick of his own. Simon attempts a flying knee but Song shoves him back. Song then puts together a nice combination, landing to the body and head. Song sticks a jab then sprawls on a takedown. Simon resets and tries again, but yet again Song denies it. Song moves in with a left hook to the head, and Simon circles away. Song backs up Simon with a combination and then digs a hook to the body. Simon fires off a right hand and then a pair of leg kicks. Another right for Song. Song again lands a combination, but Simon answers with a jab. Song has a low kick checked. Simon moves forward behind his jab and Song answers with a body kick. Simon thinks about a takedown but Song is wise to it. Song with a right hook. Simon moves in with a straight left. Another jab lands for Simon. Song doubles up on his jab and follows with a right hand. Son lands a leg kick and sits Simon down with a left hand right at the horn. Song dives into top position as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 5
Simon will likely need something big to get the win. Simon jabs forward. Song lands a left hook to the body. A nicely timed overhand right stops Simon in his tracks. Shortly thereafter,
Song drops Simon with a left hook during an exchange. Song pounces on his reeling foe, unloading with heavy punches. Simon tries to scramble out of danger, but the barrage continues and he falls back to the canvas, still absorbing damage.
Finally, Dean has seen enough and steps in to wave off the bout.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Ricky Simon via TKO (Punches) R5 1:10
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Connor is impressed with Simón's rapid improvement, especially his boxing and wrestling integration since the Rob Font loss. He notes Simón's flexibility, ability to counter off the back foot, and scrambling prowess. However, he acknowledges Song's power and chin, and the risk of a knockout. He ultimately favors Simón due to Song's stagnation and Simón's adaptability.

Odds mentioned: Simón opened +104, dropped to -130, currently -115. Song opened -115, currently +122. Small cage noted as a factor helping Simón.
"I think Ricky Simone, there are a lot of opportunities on a one-note fighter like Song Yedong despite his physicality."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Simón's improvement and Song's plateau. He highlights Simón's wrestling threat and pace, and Song's tendency to throw everything hard and get tracked down. He notes Song's potential to knock Simón out but leans on Simón's recent performances and adaptability.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"We're both picking Ricky Simone."