Career Averages - Preston Parsons
Career Averages - Matthew Semelsberger
Preston Parsons
Matthew Semelsberger
Preston Parsons - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Preston Parsons | 1 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacobe Smith | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Preston Parsons | 1 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Preston Parsons | 12 of 23 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacobe Smith | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Preston Parsons | 12 of 23 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Jacobe Smith (Andreas Gustofson) but with very low confidence. He believes Smith is the better pure wrestler and that his wrestling will be the difference, as Preston Parsons is clueless if he can't get takedowns. However, he notes that Smith is a UFC debutant and a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers a bad bet. He thinks Smith's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions. He advises against betting on Smith.
Big Brady is very high on Jacobe Smith, calling him a top-three contender series prospect. He praises Smith's wrestling, devastating ground and pound, and power. He notes Parsons is hittable and has poor performances when he can't get takedowns, like against Oban Elliott. Brady predicts Smith will outwrestle Parsons and land a big shot, winning by second-round TKO.
Cody is confident in Smith, citing his elite wrestling pedigree and physicality. He notes Parsons's struggles against strong wrestlers like Oban Elliott. He expects Smith to dominate with takedowns and control.
Daniel is high on Smith's wrestling credentials (D1 from Oklahoma State) and KO power, but notes the -525 price and short notice are concerns. He thinks Smith's wrestling and power will be too much for Parsons, who is chinny and lost to Trevin Giles. He picks Smith but passes on betting due to lack of value.
Smith is making his UFC debut on very short notice but is a much better wrestler and grappler than Parsons. He will keep Parsons in bad positions and grind out a decision win.
Paul also picks Smith, calling him a real deal prospect. He notes Smith's violent Contender Series performance and All-American wrestling. He believes Smith will impose his will and move up the ranks quickly.
The Guru picks Smith, impressed by his contender series performance and offensive grappling. He thinks Smith's athleticism and relentlessness will out-hustle Parsons, who he considers not fast enough to lead. He notes Parsons has given trouble to fighters like Matthew Semelsberger and Trevin Giles but believes Smith's grappling will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oban Elliott | 0 | 44 of 125 | 35% | 49 of 142 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:56 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 36 of 93 | 38% | 71 of 133 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oban Elliott | 0 | 9 of 35 | 25% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Oban Elliott | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 14 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Oban Elliott | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oban Elliott | 44 of 125 | 35% | 36 of 116 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 41 of 122 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Preston Parsons | 36 of 93 | 38% | 15 of 66 | 4 of 9 | 17 of 18 | 31 of 85 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oban Elliott | 9 of 35 | 25% | 6 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Preston Parsons | 12 of 34 | 35% | 3 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Oban Elliott | 13 of 46 | 28% | 9 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Preston Parsons | 16 of 29 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Oban Elliott | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Preston Parsons | 8 of 30 | 26% | 5 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Parsons (-155), Elliott (+130)
Round 1
Capping off the early prelims is now a welterweight clash between Welshman Elliott (10-2, 1-0 UFC) and submission specialist Parsons (11-4, 2-2 UFC). The Floridian will try to become the first man to tap out Elliott and spoil his six-fight win streak, while aiming to go on his own run for the first time since 2021. Referee Dan Movahedi draws the charge for this stylistic clash, and it kicks off with a spirited clap of hands. Elliott tries to strike first with a spinning wheel kick, and Parsons walks past it slinging hands. “Pressure” pressures his opponent right to the wall, and Elliott spins him around and nails him with an elbow. The two jockey for position against the wire, peppering one another with elbows until Parsons decides to disengage and try another way in. As he circles, he lands a low kick, and his head kick that follows goes wide. Elliott spins with a back kick that lands right above the cup, and Parsons shows no concern and goes right at his man kicking the upper thigh twice. As Elliott parries punches, he is forced to deal with a spin kick to the ribs. Elliott gives him a strike back immediately in the form of a spinning wheel kick, and the two take turns punching one another. Elliott marches forward but his leg is kicked out, and Parsons tries to take advantage but is shoved to the fencing. Elliott flirts with a takedown, and Parsons meets him low with a guillotine setup to thwart it. Parsons fights out of the tie-up and walks forward swinging for the fences. Elliott meets him in the middle, gunslinging right back, and he allows Parsons to leap at him with a Superman punch to tag him with a right hand in response. Elliott shuts down a takedown effort from Parsons and squeezes him against the wall until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The two hurry out of their corners so promptly that they forget they want to touch gloves and are too close to one another to offer. They elect to throw hands, and Parsons ducks down to time a single-leg entry that Elliott successfully and comfortable defends. Elliott manages to turn Parsons around and push him against the cage, and he releases the grip and dodges or parries most of the kicks that fly at him. Parsons gets off an effective calf kick and has his head snapped back with a jab, and he comes up just short of a counter left hook. Parsons reaches his man with a left hand, swaying to dodge the counter, and he ducks a trio of punches to shoot on the hips. Elliott perfectly defends the double-leg takedown and sprawls away, managing to circle around and take the back standing in the process. Elliott drags Parsons to a knee for a moment, and he releases his hands clasped around the waist and backs away to reset. Parsons surges after him swinging with a big right hand, and Elliott effectively counters him and ducks a punch to try to take Parsons down. Parsons stays on his feet while Elliott’s hands wrap around his waist, and Parsons grabs the fence but is still taken down. Parsons powers back to his feet and frees himself from the grip, but Elliott is right there in front of him to box him up. Elliott slips back to avoid the counter and escapes, and Parsons gives chase and connects at the end of a right hand. Elliott steps in with a knee to the body and sticks out a jab, and the pressure of “Pressure” continues as he doggedly pursues a takedown he cannot find. The Welshman defends flawlessly and uses a kimura to roll Parsons over, sweeping his man and jumping back up before Parsons can get hold of him to initiate more ground fighting. Elliott pushes his man on the links until the conclusion of Round 2.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 3
When the round begins, Parsons is the initial aggressor until he walks face-first into a one-two, and he thinks twice about this approach. Elliott beats him to the punch repeatedly, splitting the guard to frustrate Parsons further. Parsons hunts for a takedown in open cage, and Elliott scrambles quickly to defend it. Parsons jumps after a submission, and Elliott wrenches his limb out and shuts down Parsons’ subsequent double that does not work. Parsons stands up labored when Elliott backs off, and he allows Parsons to meander forward so he can counter him with a solid combination. A one-two from Elliott gets Parsons’ attention, who loads up on strikes and gets popped with another one-two before getting bullied to the wall. Elliott disengages so he can keep working Parsons over from boxing range, and he ignores a low kick while fighting behind his jab. Parsons comes up well short with a head kick and eats a jab, and he overswings but manages to connect with a left hook. Elliott pushes “Pressure” to the wall again and sneaks in a left hand on the way, stifling a takedown as well. Elliott elbows on the break, and he ducks a right hook to flash out a jab. Elliott meets a diving takedown and gets pushed back to the chain links, and Parsons manages to scoop his man up and toss him down but falls directly into an armbar setup. The Welshman holds tight on the submission while Parsons holds his knee down on the face, and Elliott continues hanging on with the maneuver and has his toes interlocked in the fence. Parsons shucks it off and turns the corner, but both men get back to their feet in the clinch. Parsons works the body with knees and a few punches, and the fight comes to a conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Parsons (29-28 Elliott)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
The Official Result
Oban Elliott def. Preston Parsons via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.
Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.
Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.
Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.
The MMA Guru picks Preston Parsons, believing he is the better fighter with tougher competition. He notes Parsons' well-rounded game, including grappling and submission attempts, and his impressive win over Matthew Semelsberger. The Guru is less impressed with Oban Elliott's striking, calling it slow, and thinks Parsons will mix things up effectively. He acknowledges Elliott's size and potential but trusts Parsons' experience and skill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 33 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 47 of 87 | 54% | 116 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 | 1 | 6:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 45 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 36 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 3 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 3:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parsons | 28 of 69 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 60 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 47 of 87 | 54% | 25 of 62 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 14 | 25 of 59 | 11 of 13 | 11 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Preston Parsons | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 20 of 35 | 57% | 5 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Preston Parsons | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 17 of 31 | 54% | 10 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Preston Parsons | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.
Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.
James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.
The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger despite acknowledging his tendency to mess up TKO finishes. He notes Semelsberger's size, reach, and power, and believes he has a high likelihood of landing a big KO shot. He is not impressed by Preston Parsons, except for his win over Trevin Giles, which he attributes to Giles' mistakes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Giles | 0 | 55 of 108 | 50% | 71 of 129 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 4:14 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 62 of 130 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 | 1 | 5:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Giles | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:26 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 2 | Trevin Giles | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 18 of 40 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 1:30 | |
| 3 | Trevin Giles | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:25 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Giles | 55 of 108 | 50% | 51 of 102 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 83 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 16 |
| Preston Parsons | 42 of 95 | 44% | 24 of 77 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 34 of 84 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Giles | 14 of 26 | 53% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Preston Parsons | 14 of 28 | 50% | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trevin Giles | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Preston Parsons | 13 of 32 | 40% | 7 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Trevin Giles | 23 of 42 | 54% | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 |
| Preston Parsons | 15 of 35 | 42% | 8 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Parsons, noting his slick grappling and the fact that he showed he can go three rounds in his last fight. He thinks Giles is overrated due to the Roman Dolidze win, which he argues Dolidze actually won. He believes Parsons will get the wrestling going and win, possibly inside the distance. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Parsons at -105.
Big Brady picks Preston Parsons by submission in the second round. He questions Trevin Giles' fight IQ, durability, and volume, noting that Giles has been finished in all four losses. Brady believes Parsons' pressure and cardio will break Giles, and that Giles' weight cut to 170 will hurt his gas tank. He expects Parsons to mix takedowns, get on top, and secure a submission.
Cody picks Parsons, citing Giles' inconsistency, low output, and recent durability issues. He notes Parsons is younger, improving, and has solid wrestling. He worries about Texas judging but believes Parsons can edge out a decision or get a takedown. He calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Parsons.
Connor initially hesitates but ultimately sides with Zane's pick of Preston Parsons. He acknowledges that Parsons will eat a lot of straight punches early and that Giles is fast and a good straight puncher, but he doesn't trust Giles's application of his tools or his defensive absence at welterweight. Connor notes that Giles looked okay against Louis Cosce but not great, and he believes Parsons's physical pressure will be enough to exploit Giles's weaknesses.
Jacob also picks Parsons, agreeing that Giles is a good boxer but does not use his jab enough and struggles with pressure. He thinks Parsons will get in Giles' face, disrupt his striking, and win inside the distance. He says he is 'pressing Parsons all the way'.
The host likes Parsons' relentless grappling style and believes he can push a pace that Giles may not handle at welterweight. He notes Parsons showed good cardio in his last fight, and expects him to find a finish from top dominant position. He has questions about Giles' energy levels and weight cut.
The Guru picks Giles, citing his experience and athleticism. He notes that Parsons hasn't fought since his debut and lacks a standout skill. He expects Giles to win by decision, using his physicality and technique.
Zane picks Preston Parsons because he believes Trevin Giles's athletic advantages are less pronounced at welterweight and his defensive flaws are more exploitable. Giles backs up with his hands down and is prone to getting hurt, while Parsons is a pressuring bully who will walk through shots and wear Giles down. Zane notes that Giles has not knocked anyone out since 2017 and tends to gas when having success, making him vulnerable to Parsons's relentless pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 75 of 112 | 66% | 121 of 160 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 | 1 | 7:48 |
| Evan Elder | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 34 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 23 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:16 |
| Evan Elder | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 40 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 2:55 |
| Evan Elder | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 43 of 59 | 72% | 58 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Evan Elder | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parsons | 75 of 112 | 66% | 60 of 94 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 33 of 58 | 7 of 11 | 35 of 43 |
| Evan Elder | 27 of 60 | 45% | 12 of 43 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Preston Parsons | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Evan Elder | 12 of 22 | 54% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Preston Parsons | 16 of 25 | 64% | 12 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Evan Elder | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Preston Parsons | 43 of 59 | 72% | 35 of 49 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 33 |
| Evan Elder | 8 of 23 | 34% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Evan Elder (referred to as Luis Cose, but likely Evan Elder given the matchup). He likes Elder's power and pressure, and thinks Parsons' takedowns aren't good enough to be a constant threat. He sees it as a sprawl-and-brawl matchup where Elder can settle in and let his hands go. He notes Elder was dominating his last fight before gassing.
Cody picks Elder, citing his striking and preparation for a grappler. He notes Parsons' one-dimensional grappling and tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Elder will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.
The host picks Evan Elder in his quick picks list and includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds. He does not provide detailed reasoning for the pick.
Paul agrees, noting Elder's training at Sanford MMA and preparation for a wrestler. He thinks Elder's striking will be too much for Parsons. He suggests Elder should be around -185 favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder (referred to as 'Louis Coskey' in transcript, likely a mispronunciation) over Preston Parsons. He describes Elder as explosive and dangerous early, noting his debut loss but good performance. He criticizes Parsons for being unimpressive and easily handled by Daniel Rodriguez. He predicts Elder will be more patient this time and get a first-round KO, citing power difference. He mentions Elder's recent KO loss but believes he will bounce back.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 45 of 83 | 54% | 46 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 45 of 83 | 54% | 46 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 45 of 83 | 54% | 36 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 38 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 12 |
| Preston Parsons | 23 of 43 | 53% | 14 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 45 of 83 | 54% | 36 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 38 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 12 |
| Preston Parsons | 23 of 43 | 53% | 14 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Capping off the preliminary card is a welterweight tilt as the hard-hitting Rodriguez (14-2, 4-1 UFC) welcomes short-notice replacement and submission artist Parsons (9-2, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion. The betting line that this fight does not go to decision is high (-250), and referee Mike Beltran and his mustache will need to be on their game as soon as it begins. The fighters do not touch gloves, and Rodriguez instead walks forward to throw hands. Parsons backs him off with a head kick, and he crashes in to pursue a single leg take down early. “D-Rod is not concerned, as he spins around, drops to a knee and breaks away. Parsons touches him with a left hand, and Rodriguez eats it and backs off. Parsons lands another, and Rodriguez gathers himself and starts to get off a few thudding leg kicks. Rodriguez rips the body with a kick and sprawls when Parsons tries to take him down. The California native walks Parsons down to kick him in the lead, and the shin lands with an audible pop. Parsons walks through it to ring home a straight right hand, and he throws kicks from each leg before Rodriguez ties him up. The welterweights trade single punches, and Rodriguez goes to the calf with a kick. Parsons whiffs on a trio of jabs, and he eats a left hand as he tries to find that range. Rodriguez’ leg kicks start adding up, so Parsons looks to give a few back and has two checked. A stinging one-two rings home from Rodriguez, and Parsons stands before him and fire back hard. Parsons gets off a big right hand, and a responsive right hand cracks Persons in the eye and makes Parsons bend over in pain. He backs off, blinking his eye from the punch, and Rodriguez pours it on with heavy punches. Rodriguez shrugs off a takedown, gets off a few heavy punches, and hurts the newcomer again. Parsons bites down on his gumshield and throws heavy leather, but Rodriguez ignores the oncoming fire and continues to tee off on an increasingly damaged Parsons.
The legs give way beneath Parsons as the damage keeps mounting, with a pair of left hands sending Parsons down to the ground. “Pressure” cannot quite handle the pressure of the blows, as Rodriguez lays on one final barrage of punches until Beltran has seen enough.
The victory puts “D-Rod” on a two-fight win streak, and he earns his eighth career knockout by pounding out a game Parsons.
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Preston Parsons R1 3:47 via TKO (Punches)
Cody is very confident in Daniel Rodriguez, noting his superior boxing, 10th Planet jiu-jitsu, and experience. He believes Preston Parsons is a can-crusher who has struggled against UFC-level competition. Cody has parlayed Rodriguez with Islam Makhachev, indicating high confidence.
Paul sides with Daniel Rodriguez's experience and striking advantage, but he acknowledges that Preston Parsons is a physically strong grappler who could pose problems if he gets takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's questionable cardio and lack of tested grappling defense, but ultimately believes Rodriguez should win.
Matthew Semelsberger - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Radtke | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Radtke | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Radtke | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 7 of 12 | 58% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Radtke | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 7 of 12 | 58% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Charles Radtke because he believes Radtke will land the better shots and get takedowns. He notes Radtke is an athletic grappler with power, while Semelsberger is an aggressive striker with poor takedown defense (45%). He thinks Semelsberger's toughness will keep him in the fight but doesn't see him winning. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds line if available, as both are tough.
Big Brady likes Radtke's multiple paths to victory: power on the feet and a clear grappling advantage. He criticizes Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and low volume, noting that Radtke is a BJJ black belt with submission wins. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody sees this as a coin flip but leans Radtke due to Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and recent losses. He notes Radtke's smart game plan against Blood Diamond and his clinch work. Cody expects Radtke to neutralize Semelsberger's striking with wrestling and cage control.
Connor picks Radtke, citing Semelsberger's broken confidence and inability to deal with Radtke's lead left hook. He notes Semelsberger has been second-guessing himself and overthinking, while Radtke has a simple one-punch game. Connor thinks Semelsberger will just eat the left hook or try to avoid it without a clear answer.
Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Matthew Semelsberger as a dog, citing his knockdown power and experience. He worries about Semelsberger's mental toughness and tendency to let opponents back into fights, but believes Charles Radtke is still green and not worth laying a price on. Vreeland notes Semelsberger has won as a dog before.
Radtke is expected to do enough in the striking to get his offense off, then take the fight to the ground where he can find a finish in the first or second round.
Paul agrees, citing Semelsberger's declining durability and takedown defense. He worries about Radtke's size disadvantage but thinks Radtke's wrestling and left hook can get the job done. Paul plans to include Radtke in parlays.
The Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog, citing his reach advantage and ability to beat Jake Matthews. He criticizes Radtke's performance against Mike Malott and believes Semelsberger will finally get a TKO finish without fumbling. He notes Semelsberger is on a three-fight losing streak and has his back against the wall.
Zane picks Radtke, agreeing with Connor. He describes Semelsberger as deep in the shit, unable to figure out his game, and distractible. Zane notes Semelsberger got outstruck by Preston Parsons, who is straightforward, and that Radtke's simple left hook will be effective. He says 'I'm taking Radtke'.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parsons | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 33 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 47 of 87 | 54% | 116 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 | 1 | 6:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 45 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 36 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 3 | Preston Parsons | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 3:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parsons | 28 of 69 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 60 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 47 of 87 | 54% | 25 of 62 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 14 | 25 of 59 | 11 of 13 | 11 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Preston Parsons | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 20 of 35 | 57% | 5 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Preston Parsons | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 17 of 31 | 54% | 10 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Preston Parsons | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.
Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.
James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.
The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger despite acknowledging his tendency to mess up TKO finishes. He notes Semelsberger's size, reach, and power, and believes he has a high likelihood of landing a big KO shot. He is not impressed by Preston Parsons, except for his win over Trevin Giles, which he attributes to Giles' mistakes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 52 of 120 | 43% | 53 of 121 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 69 of 128 | 53% | 76 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 1 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 19 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Uroš Medić | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 25 of 55 | 45% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Uroš Medić | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 31 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 52 of 120 | 43% | 31 of 91 | 8 of 14 | 13 of 15 | 42 of 106 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 69 of 128 | 53% | 49 of 98 | 17 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 50 of 104 | 13 of 18 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 17 of 36 | 47% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 18 of 31 | 58% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Uroš Medić | 24 of 58 | 41% | 12 of 40 | 3 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 25 of 55 | 45% | 16 of 43 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Uroš Medić | 11 of 26 | 42% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 26 of 42 | 61% | 21 of 33 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Semelsberger (-205), Medic (+175)
Round 1
Welterweights take center stage next, as two action fighters prepare to only leave one man standing. “Semi the Jedi” Semelsberger (11-5, 5-3 UFC) has his full array of Jedi mind tricks at his disposal, while “The Doctor” Medic (8-1, 2-1 UFC) wants to show on short notice that mind tricks do not work on him – only money, and punches. This potential thriller draws oversight from referee Tyler Tomlinson, and it kicks off as the two men bump fists. Semelsberger is the initial aggressor, launching an early head kick that bounces off the raised guard. Medic kicks, and the two clash together as Medic topples to the mat. In a furious exchange, Medic gets off some upkicks, but Semelsberger circles around to take the back. Medic defends with a possible leglock as they continue to roll, and this forces them to lean up against the cage and walk up it. Medic breaks off and scores a short right hand, and the two reset. Medic leaves a lazy right hook out too long, and Semelsberger snaps the head back with a straight right hand. Semelsberger paws out a one-two, and Medic replies with a similar pair of punches that split the guard. Medic kicks low, and Semelsberger slowly crowds him but does not let go. They both get off single strikes, with Semelsberger’s right hand a big one. Medic winds up with a heft left hook, causing the mullet of Semelsberger to wave behind him. Medic backs up against the fence, bounces off it, and tosses a high kick that makes Semelsberger nod at him. Semelsberger counters a kick with an overhand left that lands loudly, and a straight right hand knocks Medic clean off his feet. Semelsberger lowers himself down into the guard, as his corner desperately cries for him to not play in the guard. Semelsberger stands up, and Medic blasts him in the chops with an upkick. Medic trips Semelsberger up, and Semelsberger stumbles to his back. Medic jumps up and chases after him, and he drills Semelsberger with a few punches. Semelsberger comes back firing with a right hand, dropping Medic down to his face. Medic tries to recover with a takedown attempt, and Semelsberger swirls around to take his back. The two break up and take breaths after the ferocious exchange. Semelsberger plants two solid right hands on the chin, and he measures Medic and bobs up and down as he works his way in. Semelsberger sneaks up a high kick as Medic misses a hook, and Semelsberger busts open a cut on the bridge of the nose with a right hand. Medic strikes the body with a kick, and Semelsberger whiffs with a counter as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Round 2
The welterweights are fired up to get back after it, as they clap their hands together. Medic leads off with a solid one-two, and Semelsberger responds with a missile of a right hand back at him. Medic kicks the body with body legs, and he disrupts an advancing Semelsberger with a few punches. They both fire off kicks to the midsection, and Semelsberger tries to follow one with an overhand right that misses the mark by a wide margin. Medic paws out with a few left hands, and Semelsberger crowds him with a trio of punches. Medic counters his man on the inside, and Semelsberger hammers his lead leg three times in a row. Medic follows a left hand with a low kick, and Semelsberger is right in front of him to fire out a one-two. Semelsberger doubles up on a jab, and a left hand shakes Medic up. The Alaskan by way of Serbia grits his teeth and gets back into the pocket, only to dance out of the way when Semelsberger is throwing hands. They trade right hands, but Semelsberger lands flusher. Medic delivers a kick to the body, and Semelsberger does the exact same thing and then kicks Medic’s lead wheel for good measure. Semelsberger rashes the pocket and tags Medic a few times, only to get backed off when Medic tries to initiate a brawl. Semelsberger hooks a right hand on the ear, and Medic backs off and aims a kick at the dome. Semelsberger mimics him with his own high kick, after nodding at Medic for the effective strike. Semelsberger keeps his guard up high as Medic strings punches together, but a few manage to get through. Semelsberger eats a left hand on the end of an exchange, and this results in heavy counters from both men. Semelsberger use head movement to evade a few strikes, and he takes a front kick to the chest. Semelsberger blocks a head kick, and he powers forward to miss with a right hand. Semelsberger steps in with a knee that misses, and a right hand that does not. Medic scores a right hand and follows with a blocked head kick, and the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Medic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Round 3
Semelsberger is the one fired up coming out of his corner, swinging with big punches and kicks. Medic stands in the pocket to counter, and he eats a right hand as he powers forward. Medic rips a shin to the liver, and Semelsberger might be compromised but he sticks his tongue out to keep a poker face. Semelsberger pushes forward, blocking the punches that soar towards him so that he can clinch up. Semelsberger presses Medic against the wire, but Medic turns the corner and stuns him with a right hand on the break. Semelsberger digs a shin to the calf, and Medic swings right back. Semelsberger gets off a crisp right hand, and Medic has to hop back a few steps to get his balance. Medic targets the body, and he leans back from a big right hand and swings a high kick up. Semelsberger is able to block it, and he pushes out a one-two that gets parried. Semelsberger lands a right, and Medic jabs him back. Semelsberger whiffs on a leg kick, and the two start trading with bad intentions. Semelsberger unloads with a right hand, and Medic returns fire with a thudding right hand on the temple that rocks “Semi the Jedi.” Semelsberger laughs it off, but he is hurt badly.
Medic tactically comes forward, spinning with a back fist that ends connects with the forearm and sends Semelsberger careening to the canvas. Medic stands over him and hammers the nail with several standing-to-ground punches, and Tomlinson steps in to wave the fight off.
Semelsberger immediately protests, claiming he was not out, but when he stands up, he is still very wobbly. The victorious Medic retains his 100% finish rate by informing fight fans that “The Doctor” is in.
The Official Result
Uros Medic def. Matthew Semelsberger R3 2:36 via TKO (Spinning Back Fist and Punches)
Angelo picks Semelsberger because he believes Semelsberger has enough chin to weather Medić's striking and can then work in his grappling advantage. He notes that Semelsberger has solid leg kicks, body work, and power, but can be sloppy. He trusts Semelsberger to close the gap and drag the fight into later rounds, where his grappling should take over. He already placed a half-unit bet at -150.
Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He argues that Semelsberger has more paths to victory: better durability, cardio, wrestling, and grappling, plus massive power (nine knockdowns in eight fights). He expects Medić, coming up in weight on short notice at elevation, to fade after an early onslaught, and Semelsberger's chin will hold up to finish him.
Cody picks Semelsberger but is hesitant at -200. He notes Medić's power and early finishing ability but questions his cardio. Semelsberger has good volume and takedown defense issues but can survive early onslaughts. He suggests a live bet on Semelsberger if he survives the first round.
James believes Medić is a cleaner striker with better timing and technique, while Semelsberger has more power but an elite chin that may eventually crack. He notes the line has moved heavily toward Semelsberger, creating value on Medić as an underdog. He thinks the fight is fairly even and that Medić's striking prowess gives him the edge.
Semelsberger has more knockdowns than fights and his forward pressure and power punching will be too much for Medić. Medić is a glass cannon with a hand injury history and doesn't have the grappling to exploit Semelsberger's weakness. Semelsberger will land a big punch and knock him out. Fight doesn't go to decision is a great play.
Paul also picks Semelsberger, citing his superior cardio and volume. He notes Medić's limited cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. Semelsberger has faced wrestlers and power punchers but has shown durability. He advises a live bet if Medić doesn't finish early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 36 of 76 | 47% | 86 of 158 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 11:12 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 2 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 39 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 35 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 32 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 19 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 19 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells | 36 of 76 | 47% | 29 of 67 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 45 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 20 of 37 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Wells | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 27 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 11 of 18 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 8 | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Wells | 16 of 33 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Jeremiah Wells | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wells (-110), Semelsberger (-110)
Round 1
The UFC chose violence for this event’s main card opener, as when Wells (11-2-1, 3-0 UFC) and Semelsberger (11-4, 5-2 UFC) get down to business, all hell might break loose. Needing no more introduction as there is about to be some exciting action, referee Marc Goddard takes charge. There is no touch of gloves as Wells practically sprints into action, and Semelsberger catches him with a stiff right hand and stuns him. Wells backs off, gathers his thoughts and charges recklessly again. Semelsberger counters him cleanly and downs his man, and Wells scrambles when he hits the mat instead of getting pounded out by the forceful strikes of “Semi the Jedi.” Wells moves when he needs to, and he stands up to pursue a takedown. Semelsberger stuffs him and jams him against the wall, and the pace slows down from the veritable car crash of offense from before. Wells spins himself deftly to throw Semelsberger down to the floor, and he ends up in the closed guard of his opponent trying to rain down right hands. Semelsberger leans his upper back against the wall to partially sit up, and Wells continues to remains on top pounding on Semelsberger. On his back, Semelsberger tries to hook his toes in the cage to pull off of it, and he is warned for it as Wells smacks Semelsberger with ground strikes. Semelsberger pushes his man off of him, but Wells leaps back on top of him. Semelsberger stands and nearly gives up his back, only for him to wriggle it free and get shoved against the wire. Wells looks for another change in leverage to secure a throw, and he lets go to throw hands. When Semelsberger defends from the oncoming fire, Wells changes levels and successfully hits a double. Wells postures up in the guard to hammer with punches from on high, and the round ends in this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Round 2
The round begins far less wild than the first, as Semelsberger instead meanders forward to claim the center of the cage with Wells eventually leaping in and out with two punches. They collide with fists at the same time, and a monster left hook from “Semi the Jedi” and a right hand smash into Wells dome and send him wobbling back until he falls over. Semelsberger does not finish the job, instead patiently landing a few shots, before backing off to reset. Wells swings for the bleachers when upright again, and Semelsberger tags him with a sharp right hand to stun him once more. Wells tries to grab his foe and throw him down, but there is nothing to it, so he gets back to striking range to lob bombs. Wells ducks a looping punch and pursues a single this time, and he elevates Semelsberger and drops him hard to the mat. Wells settles for the closed guard to pummel Semelsberger with ground-and-pound, forcing Semelsberger to open up his guard for some better position on his back. Wells calmly sits up and lands a few strikes, with an elbow that he drops down with his full body weight behind. Elbows from Wells continue to land on the forehead, and he hammers the body a few times when Goddard tells him to keep working. Semelsberger looks to set up a high guard, and Wells leaps over it and briefly gets to half guard before being pulled back to the guard again. Wells slashes down with additional elbows, working Semelsberger over effectively until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Round 3
The last round has surprisingly been reached, and unsurprisingly, both men load up on their punches right out of the gate and nail each other. Wells leaps forward with a flying knee that skims off the side of the head, and Semelsberger sneaks through a body shot when his man lands. Wells rushes forward in pursuit of a double, and he scoops Semelsberger up like Matt Hughes and loudly deposits him to the floor. When Semelsberger climbs back upright, Wells quickly slams him back down for an exclamation point. Wells manages to work his way into the half guard as he presses down to keep the moving Semelsberger from standing. Semelsberger turns just enough to isolate a leg to go after a leglock, and Wells is wise to it and circles all the way around to tug his limb free and lower himself into half guard on the other side. Semelsberger sweeps from this position and fights his way upright, but Wells is relentless at trying to bring him right back to the floor. Semelsberger fights off one try, and Wells clasps his hands and lowers Semelsberger to the floor. Semelsberger defends with a kimura, isolating Wells’ left arm with a two-on-one wrist lock, and Wells wrenches it out to wind up on top in half guard again. Semelsberger pulls his opponent back to the guard for a bit of a moral victory, and he tries to set up a triangle choke and pulls his toes on the fence to get them over Wells’ shoulders. Wells shucks it off and moves to the side, and he drives elbows down on Semelsberger’s unguarded face. Semelsberger bursts back to his feet, and Wells slings him back down in a final effort. The horn sounds, and the scorecards could be all over the map depending on how the judges value the power Semelsberger displayed in the opening spurts of the first two rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells (29-28 Wells)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Wells (30-27 Wells)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells (29-28 Wells)
The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Matthew Semelsberger via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells, citing his power, technical striking, and BJJ black belt. He thinks Wells should be more technically sound on the feet and have better BJJ than Semelsberger. He notes that Semelsberger is tough and has made fools of bettors before, so he is not betting despite seeing value at -135. He is concerned about Wells' wrestling defense against Semelsberger's pressure.
Big Brady picks Jeremiah Wells to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Wells has a ton of power and a very good grappling game, and he mixes in takedowns well. Brady is concerned about Wells's cardio if the fight extends, but he believes Wells will finish Semelsberger early. He also mentions that this could be a good live betting spot if Semelsberger survives the first round, but he expects Wells to get him out of there early.
Cody picks Semelsberger, emphasizing his cardio and ability to go 15 minutes, while Wells is a first-round finisher with suspect gas tank. He notes Semelsberger's takedown defense and striking are good, and he has shown improvement. Cody believes if Semelsberger survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late finish. He sees a live betting opportunity to get a better price on Semelsberger after the first round.
Connor picks Semelsberger, noting that he is working hard to overcome his anxiety against punchers. He points out that Semelsberger's approach against Jake Matthews was more assertive and that he has the durability to survive Wells's power. He thinks Semelsberger can take the fight to Wells and wilt him, but admits it's not a smart pick.
Jeremiah Wells has first-round finishing power but fades in later rounds. Matthew Semelsberger is younger, has knockout power of his own, and a better gas tank. Semelsberger can keep distance, stuff takedowns, and take over as Wells slows down. The fight likely ends in a finish, with Semelsberger coming on late to win by TKO. However, Wells could land early, making this a sketchy pick.
Paul picks Wells but is hesitant, acknowledging the points Cody made about cardio. He notes Wells is more explosive and dangerous than AJ Fletcher, who had success against Semelsberger. Paul thinks the price is more accurate now and is not sure he will bet it. He agrees the longer the fight goes, the worse it is for Wells.
The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog. He notes Semelsberger's underrated chin and grappling, and his reach advantage. He thinks Semelsberger's straight punches will counter Wells' looping shots. He cites Semelsberger's competitive fight with Chaos Williams and his performance against Jake Matthews. He predicts a KO in the first round.
Zane picks Wells but is not confident, noting that Wells is a powerful puncher but has no depth to his game. He thinks Semelsberger might be the one to adjust and solve Wells, but he has a feeling that Semelsberger will get shocked and fall out of his groove. He mentions that Wells is like a new 'all the Wally Bong Bosch' and is very awkward.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 32 of 89 | 35% | 74 of 140 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jake Matthews | 3 | 45 of 116 | 38% | 54 of 129 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Matthews | 1 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 22 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 | |
| 2 | Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Matthews | 1 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 7 of 27 | 25% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jake Matthews | 1 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 15 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Semelsberger | 32 of 89 | 35% | 23 of 77 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 85 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Jake Matthews | 45 of 116 | 38% | 34 of 89 | 7 of 18 | 4 of 9 | 26 of 80 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Semelsberger | 8 of 15 | 53% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Matthews | 18 of 41 | 43% | 13 of 31 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 23 | |
| 2 | Matthew Semelsberger | 17 of 47 | 36% | 14 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Matthews | 17 of 50 | 34% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Matthew Semelsberger | 7 of 27 | 25% | 6 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Jake Matthews | 10 of 25 | 40% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-255), Semelsberger (+215)
Round 1
We turn to the 170-pound division, as longtime vet Matthews (18-5, 11-5 UFC) at the elderly age of 28 makes his 17th walk to the Octagon. He will throw down against a power puncher also in his prime in the form of “Semi the Jedi” Semelsberger (10-4, 4-2 UFC), who will look to work some Jedi mind tricks before it’s all over. The two touch ‘em up as referee Herb Dean watches on, and this match will occur at the exact same time as the madness that will be Mamed Khalidov vs. Mariusz Pudzianowski at KSW 77. The welterweights largely commit to leg kicks in the early going, trading them without throwing much in the way of punches. Matthews sits down on a calf kick and gets countered over the top, and “Semi the Jedi” manages to get off a solid kick on the way out. Out of nowhere, Semelsberger leaps forward with a powerful right hand that knocks Matthews off his feet. Matthews toughs it out, fights his way back to his feet and gets kneed in the guts. The Aussie steels himself and fires back with a vengeance, forcing Semelsberger to back off and gather his thoughts. As he advances to engage, Semelsberger cracks Matthews with a left hand on the way in, and he uses his momentum to take “The Celtic Kid” to the floor. Semelsberger drives down punches when he postures up, working the body and connecting with occasional blows to the face. Matthews ties his man up from above, protecting himself the onslaught band using effective head movement to sway and dodge the strikes coming at him. Semelsberger concludes the dominant round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Semelsberger
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Semelsberger
Round 2
The two fighters trade blows to begin the second round, but it is Semelsberger who leads the dance and throws harder. Matthews shells up after firing off a jab, knowing that the inevitable punches will come his way from “Semi the Jedi.” Matthews jabs the body with a few front kicks, and Semelsberger practically ignores them to close the distance. Semelsberger sweeps the leg and does not chain any strikes into them, instead snatching up a single off a kick and dumping the Aussie to the ground. Matthews pops back up, right into a solid knee on the chin. Matthews replies with a sharp elbow, only to get tagged with a few uppercuts before breaking off the gather his thoughts. As Semelsberger swings for the fences, Matthews beats him to the punch with a left hook, and Semelsberger stumbles into the wall. Sensing the success of this blow, he times an advancing Semelsberger with another check hook, but he cannot keep Semelsberger at bay entirely. Semelsberger slowly works his way in, taking a flush jab on the forehead so he can wind up with power punches. Matthews replies with a left hand that gets Semelsberger’s attention, backing the American up and making him stick his tongue out. Semelsberger chambers and fires off two huge right hands, and both miss the mark as Matthews’ footwork keeps him inches away from annihilation. Semelsberger swings two big punches, but Matthews is ready for it and clips him on the way in with a short right hand. Semelsberger again advances, and he gets popped with a left. Matthews pushes his man back with his effective, short combinations, until Semelsberger tries to turn the tide with a jump knee. Matthews responds with a head kick, and they both loose big strikes. Matthews has a power left hand pound into the guard, and the sheer impact makes Semelsberger take a step back. Semelsberger coils back and releases a blistering right hook, sending Matthews crashing to the mat as the back of his head bounces off the floor. Matthews gets his wits about him and jumps back up to slug it out, but Semelsberger beats him to the punch a few times before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Round 3
The welterweights clap hands to begin the last round, and Semelsberger is ready and rearing to go. Matthews loads up on a right hand, but Semelsberger is faster and swings harder. As if it were a force push, “Semi the Jedi” sends Matthews crumbling to the mat with a brutal right hand. Matthews hits the floor and rebounds in style, surviving a few ground strikes to fight to his feet. The Aussie is still with it despite suffering three knockdowns in the fight thus far, and he re-engages and clinches up to make certain his feet are beneath him again. Dean calls for Matthews to work while Matthews holds on tight, and Matthews breaks free and trips his man and cracks him with a left hand. The American staggers to the side but does not go down, and he resets to come forward. Matthews throws everything he has with a few rushing punches, but they all fall by the wayside as Semelsberger evades them. Semelsberger jumps forward with a knee, and he drops down for a low single, but neither succeed. Matthews connects with a few punches as he is light on his feet and bounces around, and he lets loose with a heavy salvo of punches on the inside until Semelsberger ties him up and goes after a single. Matthews hops away to keep his balance, and he gets shoved to the wall without going down. Matthews breaks free and strings a few punches together, but the high guard of Semelsberger protects himself from most of the harm. The two trade quick blows after the 14-minute mark, still showing plenty of gas left in the tank. The welterweights clash together, and Matthews hits a clean trip to dump the American to the floor. Matthews jumps on top in the guard, and Semelsberger wings punches and elbows from his back. The two slug it out horizontally until they reach the judges’ scorecards.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger (30-26 Semelsberger)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger (30-26 Semelsberger)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger (30-26 Semelsberger)
The Official Result
Matthew Semelsberger def. Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo loves Jake Matthews in this spot, citing that Semelsberger was taken down four times by AJ Fletcher on short notice and was out-volumed by Alex Morono. He believes Matthews will out-volume Semelsberger on the feet and take him down for control. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power keeps him live but prefers Matthews.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, emphasizing that Matthews has a clear path to victory through wrestling. He notes Semelsberger has a big hole in his takedown defense and has been submitted before. If Matthews wrestles, he should have success and can find a submission. However, if Matthews strikes, it could be close and he might get knocked out. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Matthews, emphasizing his well-rounded game and development. He notes Semelsberger is big but not elite, and Matthews can win by wrestling or striking. He considers Matthews inside the distance but acknowledges Matthews has many decisions. He will play Matthews straight up.
Connor picks Matthews, citing his improved timing and switch-ups, plus the wrestling threat. He thinks Semelsberger is still growing and needs more technique to feel confident. He notes Semelsberger can get shook early but Matthews should be able to delay his confidence.
Paul picks Matthews, noting he is coming into his own and looked great against Fialho. He thinks Matthews has a path to wrestling and can also win at range. He hates the price but believes it's about right. He is not sure if he will bet it because the line is accurate.
The MMA Guru picks Jake Matthews over Matthew Semelsberger, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Matthews has hit a different level in his career, with crisp hands and improved boxing, as seen against Andre Fialho. He notes Matthews' underrated wins, including over Li Jingliang, and thinks he will box up Semelsberger for a 30-27 decision. He considers Semelsberger bottom-of-the-barrel, only beating lower-level opponents, and expects Matthews to mix in grappling if needed.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting Matthews has become a tricky fighter with good timing. He thinks Semelsberger needs more seasoning and a way to establish himself without a big right hand. He expects Matthews to win via power and switch-ups.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 0 | 106 of 194 | 54% | 119 of 209 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 74 of 229 | 32% | 86 of 241 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 33 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 22 of 75 | 29% | 22 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 0 | 47 of 76 | 61% | 47 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 26 of 87 | 29% | 32 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Alex Morono | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 32 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 106 of 194 | 54% | 92 of 179 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 98 of 184 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 74 of 229 | 32% | 32 of 170 | 21 of 33 | 21 of 26 | 60 of 209 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 30 of 69 | 43% | 24 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 64 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 22 of 75 | 29% | 10 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 72 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 47 of 76 | 61% | 42 of 71 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 26 of 87 | 29% | 14 of 69 | 4 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 20 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | |
| 3 | Alex Morono | 29 of 49 | 59% | 26 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 26 of 67 | 38% | 8 of 41 | 11 of 16 | 7 of 10 | 20 of 59 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He favors Morono's volume and durability over Semelsberger's power. He notes Morono is a black belt in BJJ but rarely uses takedowns, so he expects a striking match. He is concerned about Semelsberger's power but thinks Morono's cardio and output will win rounds.
Cody picks Morono as a dog, citing his higher level of competition, wins over Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, and a three-fight winning streak. He notes that Morono is local to Texas, has his own gym, and will be a fan favorite. He thinks both fighters will scrap toe-to-toe, but Morono's boxing and volume will earn him the win, possibly via decision. He also mentions that Semelsberger has regressed and is not elite.
Daniel admits he is terrible at picking Morono fights. He sees Semelsberger as more athletic, bigger, and with a power edge. He notes Morono's experience and durability, but also his tendency to fatigue and his questionable chin. He thinks it will be a close three-round fight and slightly leans Semelsberger, but calls it a dog or pass situation and does not bet.
Preet bet Morono at +136, expecting his high output and forward pressure to overwhelm Semelsberger. He notes Morono's durability (only two KOs in career) and his ability to bank rounds with volume. He thinks Semelsberger may snipe him but believes Morono's style is difficult to deal with and that the Texas crowd will support him.
Paul also picks Morono, agreeing it's a dog or pass situation. He notes that he's never been a Semelsberger truther and that Semelsberger had a close fight against UFC debutant AJ Fletcher. He thinks Morono's volume and experience will be key, and that the fight will likely go to decision with Morono getting his hand raised.
The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger by KO in the first round. He expects Morono to land some early shots, but Semelsberger's defense and power will be key. Semelsberger will time Morono's body kick, land a right hand over the top, and finish with a vicious combo against the cage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Martin Sano Jr. | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Martin Sano Jr. | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Semelsberger | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Martin Sano Jr. | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Semelsberger | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Martin Sano Jr. | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Semelsberger, noting his aggressive striking and leg kicks. He points out that Sano hasn't fought in five years and is not UFC caliber, calling the fight a 'favor to Nick Diaz.' Angelo expects Semelsberger to win easily, though he won't bet the moneyline at -400.
Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He is very low on Martin Sano Jr., citing a 4.5-year layoff, poor takedown defense, bad cardio, and unimpressive striking. He believes Semelsberger should dominate, though he acknowledges some uncertainty due to Sano's long layoff.
Cody is confident Semelsberger wins, citing his size, strength, and wrestling. He notes Sano hasn't won a fight in years, has poor wrestling, and is only on the card due to his connection to Nick Diaz. He expects Semelsberger to dominate but warns against the heavy price.
Daniel Levi picks Matthew Semelsberger, noting that he is the more physical fighter with better competition. He dismisses Martin Sano's win over Jeff Neal as occurring when Neal was green. Levi expects Semelsberger to win, likely by knockout, and mentions the line opened at -160 but moved to -500, which he finds interesting but still favors Semelsberger.
Jacob agrees Semelsberger will win, but he's interested in how Sano looks after the layoff. He notes that if Sano looks sharp, it could indicate Nick Diaz is also well-prepared. Jacob picks Semelsberger but will watch Sano's performance for future bets on Diaz.
The host picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by KO, specifically in the second round. He believes Semelsberger is the much better fighter and can win any way he wants unless he gets knocked out early. He notes Semelsberger's power and durability, referencing his ability to withstand damage from Chaos Williams. He thinks Sano is a brawler with a KO-or-bust style and will be in trouble if he doesn't finish early.
Paul picks Semelsberger, noting Sano's long layoff and lack of wins. He thinks Semelsberger is the clear favorite but the price is too high to bet. He expects Semelsberger to win but won't bet at -490.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Matthew Semelsberger, calling the fight one-sided. He criticizes Martin Sano Jr. as being in the UFC only because he is Nate Diaz's friend, noting his 4-2-1 record and three-year layoff. He expects Semelsberger to win by first-round KO, as he took shots well against Chaos Williams and has a great win over Jason Witt. He mentions that only 2% of people on Tapology pick Sano, implying the odds are heavily in Semelsberger's favor.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.
Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.
James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.
The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger despite acknowledging his tendency to mess up TKO finishes. He notes Semelsberger's size, reach, and power, and believes he has a high likelihood of landing a big KO shot. He is not impressed by Preston Parsons, except for his win over Trevin Giles, which he attributes to Giles' mistakes.
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