vs
+310 -360
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 26
Height 6' 3"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Nikolas Motta
4.13 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
5.28 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tom Nolan
5.87 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.73 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.74 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
1.9 Sub. Avg
Nikolas Motta
Moneyline
Caesars +310
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
BetRivers +1500
Tom Nolan
Moneyline
BetRivers -360
KO/TKO
BetWay -185
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +1300
Nikolas Motta - Fight History
LOSS vs Nazim Sadykhov
KO R2 4:17 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nazim Sadykhov 1 93 of 150 62% 102 of 161 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:29
Nikolas Motta 1 66 of 157 42% 76 of 168 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nazim Sadykhov 0 39 of 63 61% 45 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:05
Nikolas Motta 1 36 of 82 43% 44 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Nazim Sadykhov 1 54 of 87 62% 57 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Nikolas Motta 0 30 of 75 40% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nazim Sadykhov 93 of 150 62% 60 of 114 25 of 27 8 of 9 58 of 109 33 of 38 2 of 3
Nikolas Motta 66 of 157 42% 46 of 136 16 of 16 4 of 5 54 of 135 12 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nazim Sadykhov 39 of 63 61% 21 of 43 12 of 13 6 of 7 25 of 46 14 of 17 0 of 0
Nikolas Motta 36 of 82 43% 23 of 68 9 of 9 4 of 5 28 of 72 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Nazim Sadykhov 54 of 87 62% 39 of 71 13 of 14 2 of 2 33 of 63 19 of 21 2 of 3
Nikolas Motta 30 of 75 40% 23 of 68 7 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 63 4 of 12 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Angelo picks Nazim Sadykhov, praising his striking and footwork. He notes that Nazim is a very good striker and has looked fantastic since his only loss. He acknowledges that Nikolas Motta is a good fighter with fast hands and power, but thinks Nazim is the slightly better striker and can win by finish. He warns that Motta is dangerous and the fight could get weird.

Mentions Nazim can win by finish; considers him for lineups but notes Motta's danger.
"I'm going to pick Nazim. I'm probably going to put him in a lineup or two, but we can't just ignore that Nicholas Ma is actually a good fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Big Brady is a big fan of Sadykhov in this matchup, citing durability as the key factor. He notes Sadykhov has never been knocked out, while Motta has been finished in all five losses. Brady thinks Sadykhov is more well-rounded, has better cardio, and a good ground game. He predicts Sadykhov will knock out Motta, possibly in the second round, but wouldn't be surprised by a submission.

second round knockout
"I like Satakov. I think he can knock out Moda."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Connor picks Sadykhov, agreeing that Motta's tendency to jump in with combinations and lack of distance management will be exploited by Sadykhov's countering and physicality. He notes that Sadykhov is not shallow in any area and is a tough, durable fighter who can take a shot and keep coming. He believes Motta's confidence issues, as seen against Ogden, will resurface against a strong opponent like Sadykhov.

"Mata coming at him chin first. And it's going to be able to walk him into something. And Sadokob has really proven to be a brute."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

The host is surprised Sadykhov is such a big favorite. He acknowledges Sadykhov's knockout power but thinks Motta has rounded out his game enough to eat big shots and put together a better body of work. He expects Motta to touch up Sadykhov, mix in takedowns, and win on the scorecards, noting Motta is live as a +340 underdog.

underdog at +340
"Another fight where I'm very surprised at Sadikov being such a big favorite. Sure, he has the knockout power to potentially cause MO some problems, but I think MOT has really rounded out his game well enough to be effective …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

The MMA Guru picks Nazim Sadykhov, calling him 'really, really good'. He acknowledges Nikolas Motta's underrated skills and dangerous hooks but believes Sadykhov's defensive striking and pressure will prevail. He warns about Motta's lunging hooks but expects Sadykhov to adjust and finish late second or third round via TKO.

Sadykhov wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Nazim Sadikov. I think he's really good. I think Nazim Sadikov is really, really good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Zane picks Sadykhov, noting that Motta's recklessness and chin-first approach will play into Sadykhov's power and physicality. He points out that Motta has been broken by lesser fighters like Trey Ogden, and that Sadykhov is a brute who is physical in all areas and has proven durability against Bonfim. He believes Sadykhov will survive Motta's early aggression and catch him with a fight-ending shot.

"I think this is a really, unfortunately, easy pick for Sadokob for me. Yeah, I tend to agree."
WIN vs Maheshate
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolas Motta 0 56 of 169 33% 60 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maheshate 2 78 of 166 46% 87 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolas Motta 0 16 of 44 36% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maheshate 1 25 of 63 39% 32 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Nikolas Motta 0 24 of 66 36% 24 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maheshate 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Nikolas Motta 0 16 of 59 27% 20 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maheshate 1 28 of 49 57% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolas Motta 56 of 169 33% 29 of 133 9 of 13 18 of 23 53 of 160 3 of 9 0 of 0
Maheshate 78 of 166 46% 61 of 144 7 of 11 10 of 11 67 of 147 2 of 7 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolas Motta 16 of 44 36% 7 of 33 4 of 5 5 of 6 14 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Maheshate 25 of 63 39% 18 of 52 2 of 5 5 of 6 24 of 60 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Nikolas Motta 24 of 66 36% 11 of 51 2 of 3 11 of 12 24 of 62 0 of 4 0 of 0
Maheshate 25 of 54 46% 19 of 47 3 of 4 3 of 3 24 of 50 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Nikolas Motta 16 of 59 27% 11 of 49 3 of 5 2 of 5 15 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
Maheshate 28 of 49 57% 24 of 45 2 of 2 2 of 2 19 of 37 0 of 0 9 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta as an underdog, citing Maheshate's sloppiness and hittability. He believes Motta is faster, more accurate, and a better striker. He notes both are chinny but Motta's technical edge should prevail. He will sprinkle if the line widens to +200 or +250.

plus 176 underdog; will sprinkle if line widens to +200 or +250
"Nicholas ma is going to be the faster better more accurate striker in this matchup and he's a plus 176 Underdog that seems insane to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maheshate

Big Brady picks Maheshate to win by second-round knockout. He notes Maheshate is seven years younger, has a height and reach advantage, and is the more active striker. He highlights that Nikolas Motta has been finished in all five of his losses, including four by knockout, while Maheshate has only one knockout loss. Brady believes both have knockout power but Maheshate has better durability.

fight doesn't go to decision (opened +160, now -250), Maheshate wins by KO in round 2
"I'm going to go with mahate here by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maheshate

Cody picks Maheshate, citing his power and youth. He notes that Motta has been knocked out multiple times and fades in later rounds. Maheshate's durability and improving cardio should allow him to win by knockout or decision. He expects a violent finish in Maheshate's favor.

"I think mahot knocks he knocks Nicholas Moda out if he doesn't knock Nicholas Moda out I think he can wrestle in a little bit"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Maheshate

Daniel Vreeland acknowledges Motta's devastating knockout power, noting 10 of his 14 wins are by KO. However, he believes Maheshate has more tools on the feet and can win a decision if he avoids getting knocked out. He leans towards Maheshate due to his youth, size, and more diverse striking, but admits Motta always has a puncher's chance.

"if it's a three round War I lean a little bit more towards mahate but it's just about if you're picking mat it's because you've concluded that he's gonna come out here and starch mahate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maheshate

Paul picks Maheshate but is hesitant, noting that both have power and can finish. He thinks Motta has more power but less heart, and Maheshate's volume and durability will be key. He suggests a live bet on Motta by KO early, but expects Maheshate to win if it goes past the first round.

Motta by KO prop
"I think Ma's have some success early so a up by KO prop like plus 375 like I feel like that's most of his path to Victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

The MMA Guru initially considered Maheshate due to his size and reach, but changed his mind after noting Maheshate's split decision win over Gabriel Benitez, which he views as unimpressive. He believes Motta won't get knocked out early and will warm into the fight, ultimately picking Motta to start the card. However, he acknowledges Maheshate's knockout of Steve Garcia, showing hesitation.

"I'm going to go with Nicholas M to start off the card"
WIN vs Tom Nolan
TKO (punches) R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolas Motta 1 21 of 40 52% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Tom Nolan 0 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolas Motta 1 21 of 40 52% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Tom Nolan 0 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolas Motta 21 of 40 52% 19 of 35 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 1 13 of 20
Tom Nolan 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolas Motta 21 of 40 52% 19 of 35 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 1 13 of 20
Tom Nolan 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolas Motta vs. Tom Nolan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-298), Motta (+240)

Round 1
Two power-punching lightweights enter the Octagon to make some waves. Motta (13-5, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) may be fighting for his job, depending on the result, while unbested Aussie Nolan (6-0, 0-0 UFC) wants to leave a lasting impression in his promotional debut. Referee Dan Miragliotta draws the charge for this fight that might not need the full 15 minutes, and it opens up with a glove touch from the two combatants. Nolan quickly whips a leg kick on the inside, and he follows it with two punches. Nolan crowds his man and swings hard, and Motta bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back with a vengeance. Nolan sits down on a few kicks as he mixes in punches, while Motta fires off two body kicks that land with loud slaps. Motta takes a few punches on the chin, says “please sir, may I have some more,” and retaliates with a left hand and a vicious right that drops the unbeaten Australian to his seat.
Nolan turns over and tries to survive, but Motta follows him and proceeds to batter him with right hands. The thudding punches continue to connect on the side of the head, and Nolan is showing no signs of recovering at this point. Miragliotta recognizes this and intervenes,
and Nolan thinks about protesting but decides against it as his circuits are still somewhat scrambled. Motta rushes off and proceeds to celebrate with his eclectic corner of Ray Sefo, Jake Shields and Julian Erosa.

The Official Result
Nikolas Motta def. Tom Nolan R1 1:03 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo picks Tom Nolan, believing he is the better striker with good accuracy, power, and pressure. He notes Nolan's poor takedown defense but thinks Motta won't exploit it as he averages zero takedowns per fight. He is slightly concerned about Motta's veteran savvy and explosive striking, and finds the -330 odds too steep for a UFC debutant. He plans to leave the fight alone rather than bet.

"I'm still going to go Nolan here though I do think Nolan is the better Striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady acknowledges Tom Nolan's defensive flaws but believes Nikolas Motta's confidence and durability are shot. He notes Motta has been knocked out repeatedly and even struggled against low-output fighters. Brady expects Nolan's power and aggression to overwhelm Motta, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Tom Nolan knock out a very chinny Nicholas Moda and I think it comes in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody picks Nolan but is hesitant, noting that Motta is a shell of himself and has lost confidence. He acknowledges Nolan's inexperience and defensive flaws, but believes Motta's recent performances are so poor that Nolan can win. He says it's a trappy fight and he's not confident.

"it's going to be a Tom Nolan pick for the parlays"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win, but is hesitant due to Nolan's inexperience. He compares Nolan to a green Carlos Condit, praising his length and variety of strikes. Vreeland worries about Nolan making rookie mistakes against the experienced Motta, who has knockout power. He thinks Nolan can get a finish if he avoids Motta's big hooks.

"I'm gonna pick him to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is an undefeated 23-year-old with a massive 6'3" frame and 76-inch reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Motta. He earned his UFC contract by destroying Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series, showcasing his speed and power. Motta has durability issues and has been hurt in multiple fights, which Nolan can exploit. I expect Nolan to use his physical advantages to brutalize Motta and finish him inside the first round by KO. The minus 330 line is a bit steep for a debutant, but the matchup favors Nolan heavily.

Nolan inside the distance, by KO
"I think Nolan has the power the youth the durability um and the explosivity to land on Mota and get him out of there so give me Nolan inside the distance I'm going to say by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul picks Nolan as a fade of Motta, noting that Motta's durability and confidence are gone. He says he has no intention of betting Motta and that Nolan is unproven but likely wins. He calls it a trappy fight and is not confident.

"it's a it's a mod of fade Tom Nolan for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan, highlighting his size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes that Nikolas Motta has been too finishable recently, with KO losses to Manel Torres, Trey Ogden, and Jim Miller. He believes Nolan's power and size will catch Motta's chin and put him away by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going with Tom Nolan... I feel like Tom Nolan big enough powerful enough dangerous enough in the first round to catch Nicholas motter on that chin and put him away by TKO"
LOSS vs Trey Ogden
No Contest (premature stoppage) R3 3:11 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Ogden 0 58 of 83 69% 96 of 128 3 of 16 18% 1 0 4:28
Nikolas Motta 0 14 of 80 17% 16 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Ogden 0 16 of 25 64% 35 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:18
Nikolas Motta 0 2 of 17 11% 2 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Trey Ogden 0 41 of 56 73% 43 of 59 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:23
Nikolas Motta 0 12 of 58 20% 12 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trey Ogden 0 1 of 2 50% 18 of 20 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:47
Nikolas Motta 0 0 of 5 0% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Ogden 58 of 83 69% 49 of 74 6 of 6 3 of 3 44 of 65 13 of 17 1 of 1
Nikolas Motta 14 of 80 17% 8 of 73 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Ogden 16 of 25 64% 11 of 20 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
Nikolas Motta 2 of 17 11% 0 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trey Ogden 41 of 56 73% 37 of 52 4 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 43 9 of 12 1 of 1
Nikolas Motta 12 of 58 20% 8 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Ogden 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nikolas Motta 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Motta (-135), Ogden (+114)

Round 1
Moving on to the lightweight division, two fighters will set foot in the cage hoping right the ship after losses earlier in the year, and the next victory will even their UFC record. Whether it is Ogden (16-6, 1-2 UFC) or Motta (13-5, 1-2 UFC), they will have the next three rounds or less to decide. Referee Mike Beltran draws the charge, and he sits back as the fighters do not choose to touch ‘em up. Both fighters fake jabs at one another, and then they reach out with jabs that do not find their targets. The first land is from Ogden in the form of a prodding jab, and he wipes his hands on his shorts. Ogden snaps out another jab as Motta comes in, and Motta sits down on a leg kick in response. Ogden gets in a jab and dodges when Motta counters, and he ducks away as Motta swings at him. Motta throws a kick, and Ogden catches it and goes after a single. Ogden presses his foe against the fence when the takedown does not materialize, and he is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Motta trapped on it. Ogden softens the body up with a few knees before pushing off, and he drops down for another single and bails on it to go up top with a right and a left. Ogden snipes his foe with another sharp jab, snapping the head back and disrupting the power coming back at him. Ogden shoots for a naked double-leg takedown, and Motta stands him up but gets popped with another jab. Motta prepares for another takedown and halts it, and Ogden once more sticks him with the jab. Ogden kicks low and rifles out a few jabs, and Motta is unable to let go with power punches as a result. Motta’s nose begins to glow like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, and he defends against another shot but eats a number of jabs. Ogden snake-charms his opponent with jabs, and as Motta overswings on a right hand, he drops down low and secures a double to dump the Brazilian on his back. Ogden moves right to half guard with ease, and he grinds out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
Ogden is ready and rearing to pick up right where he left off, and he pushes out a jab and beats Motta to the punch a few times. Motta rushes out throwing big punches, but Ogden sees them coming and evades them. Motta looks for a head kick at the end of a few strikes, and Ogden parries and strafes to the side. Ogden ducks and runs to the side when Motta swings for the bleachers, and he gets back into position and pierces the guard with a jab. An overzealous Motta runs into a takedown attempt, and he manages to stop it and throw hand back. Ogden keeps composed and rolls with the punches, what few Motta has landed. Motta unloads a right hand that skims past the side of his foe’s head, and Ogden answers this with a double attempt. Motta stifles this and chomps down on a few more jabs as mis mouth opens from the blows. Ogden fails on another takedown attempt, but his follow-up punches are largely finding their mark while Motta swings back hitting air. Ogden stands in one place a little too long and takes a right hand on the chin, and this wobbles him as he stumbles away. Motta tries to give chase, but Ogden takes a quick count of his teeth and smacks the Brazilian with a left hook. The jabs continue to mount by the busy Ogden, who regains his sea legs as he further marks up Motta’s face. Ogden fakes out his foe to grab hold of him with a body lock, and he delivers a pair of knees to the body. Motta pushes off and continues to throw wildly, and every so often he does manage a land. Motta dips down to block a takedown, and Ogden opens up with three punches and a blocked head kick. Ogden slings Motta to the ground with sheer strength, and Motta climbs back up and takes a knee up the middle and a right hand. Motta shakes it off and continues relentlessly throwing power punches, but Ogden sees most of them coming and does work with his jab and follow-up hook. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
The two have reached the final round, and they meet in the middle and trade hands. Ogden hops back away from the power right hand, and he glances it off the cheek and surprises Ogden. The Marathon MMA fighter doggedly goes after a takedown, and Motta hops across the cage and keeps his balance. Ogden exerts himself and dumps the Brazilian to his seat, and he wraps his legs around Motta’s for a partial mount position. Motta sits himself against the fence, and Ogden drags him flat to his back as he slides himself a bit higher to claim full mount. “Samurai Ghost” maintains heavy chest pressure and bonks Motta in the side of the head with open palm strikes, and he squeezes down to set up an arm-triangle choke and slips his left arm behind Motta’s head. Ogden adjusts his grip and talks to his corner, and he follows their instructions to lock down the arm-triangle choke. Ogden steps over to the side as he presses down with all his might.
Beltran tells Motta to show him he is still in the fight, and Motta fights the grip and is still with it. Beltran checks on Motta’s hand and believes that Motta is out, and he steps in to stop the fight. Motta immediately screams at Beltran, saying he was not out and asking why the fight is over.
By first glance, it appears to be a bit of a premature stoppage, as Motta was not rendered unconscious and his attempts to signal Beltran something like a thumbs-up would put him further in danger. For now, the result is what it is, a win by technical submission for Ogden, unless the replay goes over the footage and determines something else. As it turns out, they do.

The Official Result
Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta is Ruled a No Contest (Premature Stoppage) R3 3:11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Angelo leans towards Nikolas Motta, expecting him to stay busy on the feet and keep Trey Ogden out of his wrestling rhythm. He notes Motta has solid takedown defense and explosive striking. He predicts a decision win for Motta.

"I am leaning the Nicholas Mata side"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Big Brady calls this a terrible fight, criticizing Trey Ogden for being a point striker who doesn't engage and has zero knockout wins. He thinks Motta has a questionable chin but will land big shots because Ogden will be running around. He predicts Motta wins by decision because he looks like he wants to be there, but he has little interest in the fight.

"I think Moda is going to land a couple big shots here to sway the judges I think it's going to be one of those fights where it looks like Nicholas Modo wants to be there and it looks like …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Cody picks Nikolas Motta, citing his superior striking and hand speed. He notes that Ogden has no knockout power and low volume. Motta's chin is a concern, but Ogden is unlikely to exploit it. Cody expects Motta to out-strike Ogden and win.

"it's M for me as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Trey Ogden

Ogden is a BJJ black belt who can implement his grappling pressure similar to his win over Zellhuber. He will walk Motta down, land kicks and punches, then change levels for takedowns. Motta has questionable durability and grappling acumen, having been knocked out recently and not tested on the ground. Ogden can find a submission victory.

submission victory
"I like Ogden in this spot I like him as the underdog um I think I think he can actually even open up a finishing opportunity for himself considering that he has that Advantage like I said on the mat …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Paul picks Motta, noting his better boxing and speed. He mentions Ogden's lack of power and inability to wrestle effectively. Paul thinks Motta can win by decision or TKO if he avoids getting hit clean.

"I'm with you Nicholas Ma"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

The MMA Guru picks Trey Ogden over Nikolas Motta, citing Motta's lack of momentum after being knocked out by Manuel Torres and Jim Miller. He notes Ogden's tricky style and competitive fights against Ignacio Bahamondes and Daniel Zellhuber, and believes Ogden can outpoint Motta on the outside to a decision win.

"I'm going to go with Trey Ogden over Nicholas Motta here... I think he's tricky, he's given tricky fights to really good opponents... I reckon Trey Ogden can make it tricky for him on the outside and point his way …"
LOSS vs Manuel Torres
KO (elbow) R1 1:50 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manuel Torres 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Nikolas Motta 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manuel Torres 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Nikolas Motta 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manuel Torres 13 of 17 76% 3 of 7 6 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Nikolas Motta 7 of 14 50% 3 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manuel Torres 13 of 17 76% 3 of 7 6 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Nikolas Motta 7 of 14 50% 3 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta as the underdog. He believes Motta is the more powerful striker and will avoid Torres's plum clinch and takedowns. Torres has a BJJ advantage but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. Angelo plans to bet Motta plus 3.5 points on the judge's scorecard, so a 29-28 loss still pays.

Nikolas Motta +3.5 points (buy points on judge's scorecard)
"Mata is the underdog pick here this is potentially going to be fight of the night"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He describes Torres as a wild, relentless fighter who pushes a high pace and looks for finishes. Brady notes Torres has been finished twice by submission but has good durability and chin, while Motta has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Torres will make it his fight and overwhelm Motta with pressure and volume. Brady expects a chaotic car crash of a fight ending early in Torres' favor.

"I gotta go with manual tours so I do think is the more durable fighter... I think he finishes Nicholas mode and I think it comes early."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Cody is high on Torres, citing his finishing ability, good volume, durability, and multiple ways to win. He notes that Torres has a nasty submission game and striking, and that his only losses came via leg locks early in his career. Cody thinks Torres will overwhelm Motta with volume and eventually catch him, predicting a knockout after the over 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Motta's durability is a question mark.

Torres wins by knockout after over 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with manual Torres to get the win probably by knockout sometime after the over one and a half"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Connor picks Torres, citing his chin and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Motta is a sharp counter puncher but gets hit cleanly and lacks durability. Connor expects Torres to fire back when hit and eventually overwhelm Motta with power.

"I got to ride with the guy with the chin."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Daniel Levi picks Nikolas Motta, citing Motta's superior technical striking and counter boxing. He notes Torres's reckless striking leaves openings, and Motta can exploit them. He also mentions Motta's grappling as a potential path to tire Torres. He acknowledges the danger in the first few minutes but believes Motta can weather the storm and take over.

"I had to take samada in this spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Torres has cardio issues and is mostly an early knockout threat. Motta is a better technical striker with more experience. If Motta survives the early onslaught, he can take over in the second round and find his own knockout. The fight likely ends inside the distance. Motta wins by knockout.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna go with the Brazilian and Nicholas Mota another Underdog here but I think the majority of my investment in this fight will go on the chalk on the fight doesn't go to decision but give me Mota is …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Torres puts on a high pace early and often, and that his significant strike totals are impressive. He questions whether Torres can maintain that pace if the fight extends, but given Motta's durability issues, he thinks Torres will get the job done. Paul likes the over 37.5 significant strikes for Torres on PrizePicks.

Torres over 37.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I really really liked manual Torres"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

The MMA Guru picks Manuel Torres over Nikolas Motta, citing Torres as a good prospect with momentum and a reach advantage. He notes Motta was slept by Jim Miller and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight favoring Torres, who has improved over a year off.

"I'm gonna have to go with Manuel Torres here over Nicholas Motta another bit of a common sense pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Zane picks Torres because of his durability and ability to navigate wild exchanges. He notes that Motta is fragile and has been knocked out multiple times, while Torres has never been KO'd. Zane believes that in a pocket exchange, Torres will land the harder shots and Motta will break.

"I got to pick Torres as well."
TKO (punches) R1 3:49 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolas Motta 1 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cameron VanCamp 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolas Motta 1 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cameron VanCamp 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolas Motta 24 of 45 53% 22 of 41 1 of 3 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 0 9 of 10
Cameron VanCamp 15 of 40 37% 7 of 26 4 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolas Motta 24 of 45 53% 22 of 41 1 of 3 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 0 9 of 10
Cameron VanCamp 15 of 40 37% 7 of 26 4 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Angelo picks Motta because he believes Motta is the better striker, with explosive athleticism and solid takedown defense. He notes that VanCamp is a wild brawler with power but is kill-or-be-killed, and that Motta should be able to pick him apart if he keeps a tight guard. However, he acknowledges the odds are wide and VanCamp is a live underdog, making him hesitant.

Odds are wide; VanCamp is a live underdog.
"the pick is definitely mata but cameron van camp is a very live underdog"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Big Brady picks Nikolas Motta to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Motta has dynamite in his hands and hits very hard, while Cameron VanCamp has poor striking defense (29% striking defense) and keeps his hands down with his chin up. Brady believes Motta's power will be too much for VanCamp, who has been knocked out multiple times. He also mentions that VanCamp is cutting down to 155 for the first time in a while, which could affect his performance. Brady predicts a first-round knockout for Motta.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna go nicolas mona to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cameron VanCamp

Cody thinks VanCamp's size and reach advantage at 155 will be key. He notes Motta's questionable chin and low volume. He says VanCamp looked good in his last fight despite the KO loss and can out-point Motta from distance.

"i'm gonna go with the underdog on camera and vancamp"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Daniel Levi leans Nikolas Motta, citing his brawling style and durability compared to VanCamp, who has been knocked out at 170 and is moving down. He thinks Motta is more UFC-ready and has improved by training in the US. He is not crazy about the price and does not bet.

"I'm a lean model here just not crazy about the price but i just think he's more ufc ready so for that reason i'm gonna pick nicholas mata to get this dub"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cameron VanCamp

Jacob picks VanCamp despite being biased because he trains with a friend of VanCamp. He highlights VanCamp's tenacity, length, power, and finishing ability, noting that he hurt Fiallo in his debut before getting caught. Jacob also took the under 1.5 rounds, expecting a brawl. He acknowledges Motta is more technical but believes VanCamp's pressure and power will prevail.

Bet under 1.5 rounds.
"i immediately took the under one and a half on this matchup because i think these boys meet in the middle and just start swanging and banging"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Motta is the slicker striker with better technique, while VanCamp is loose and defensively flawed. Both have durability issues, but Motta should capitalize on VanCamp's poor striking defense and counter him. The fight likely ends inside the distance. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision at -170 to -225 rather than Motta's moneyline at -195.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -170 to -225
"I'm going to lean with the favorite here and think that uh Nicholas Mota is the one that capitalizes on the flimsy striking defense of Cameron Van Camp counters him effectively and knocks his ass out so give me motor …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says he has no thoughts and defers to Cody.

"you got any thoughts because i don't"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cameron VanCamp

The MMA Guru picks Cameron VanCamp as a massive underdog. He believes Nikolas Motta is not special after losing to Jim Miller, and that VanCamp's size, grappling, and full camp will be decisive. He predicts a first-round submission via rear naked choke, noting VanCamp's teeps and calf kicks to wear down opponents. He acknowledges Motta may start fast but thinks VanCamp's youth and experience give him the edge.

first round submission win by rear naked choke
"i'm going to go the first round submission win by cameron van camp with a rear naked choke"
LOSS vs Jim Miller
TKO (punches) R2 1:58 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 1 48 of 92 52% 49 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Nikolas Motta 0 21 of 57 36% 21 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 26 of 54 48% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Nikolas Motta 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jim Miller 1 22 of 38 57% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Nikolas Motta 0 7 of 22 31% 7 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 48 of 92 52% 24 of 67 6 of 7 18 of 18 34 of 68 3 of 3 11 of 21
Nikolas Motta 21 of 57 36% 17 of 53 2 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 26 of 54 48% 8 of 35 5 of 6 13 of 13 23 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
Nikolas Motta 14 of 35 40% 12 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 22 of 38 57% 16 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 5 11 of 17 0 of 0 11 of 21
Nikolas Motta 7 of 22 31% 5 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Nikolas Motta

Round 1
The widest gap in Octagon experience comes in this lightweight tilt, as the most active fighter in company history in the legendary Miller (33-16, 1 NC; 22-15, 1 NC UFC) comes to blows with the debuting Motta (12-3, 0-0 UFC). Miller has fought more than twice as many times in the UFC as Motta has competed in his whole career, but the 29-year-old from Brazil is undaunted. Watching closely to see if Motta can pass this difficult test is referee Keith Peterson, and Motta shows plenty of reverence but not a lick of nonsense as he chooses not to touch gloves with the longtime vet. Miller begins with several jabs, and he chains a few together into a slapping leg kick. Miller gets off a one-two, and he swats away the quick hands coming back at him from the Brazilian. Miller gets cracked with a short combination, but he give its right back to Motta. “Iron Motta” connects with a short punch, and Miller steps in with an elbow to keep him honest. Miller slings a high kick, and Motta sticks him with a right hand that hurts Miller cut does not send him down to the mat. Motta does not capitalize on this, and he lets the vet off the hook. Motta sticks him with a jab, stunning Miller again, but Miller attacks with a leg kick on the inside. Miller blocks another power right hand so that he can kick Motta’s lead leg once more, and Motta visibly reacts from it. A kick from Miller may have glanced off the cup, but Motta signals that he can keep fighting and they don’t slow down. Miller chops down Motta’s leg again, leading Motta to stumble forward and try to find his footing. Although Miller gives chase, Motta is able to duck out of the way and recover. “A-10” charges ahead with a short salvo of long punches, and Motta escapes the brunt of the damage but cannot escape the low kick from the vet. Motta rips the body with a left, and he barely avoids a looping left hand from Miller. Miller scores a leg kick, and he gets tagged with a clean counter right, but he shows no worse for wear from it. Miller continues to sting the leg a few more times, and Motta winces from the strikes. Miller leaps forward with a superman punch, using his forward momentum to tie the newcomer up and press him tightly against the fencing. Miller uses several close clinch strikes to his advantage, including a few knees to the inner thigh, until Motta pushes off to reset. Motta zips a high kick up and wraps his foot around Miller’s guard, and the New Jersey native wears it well and continues to assault his foe’s lead leg. One more leg kick from Miller ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
When Miller reaches out with a right hand to start off the second stanza, Motta replies with a pair of punches to break it up and catch Miller standing still. Miller revs up his engine and slams his shin into the inner thigh of his opponent, and Motta hops back only to take one on the outside. Miller stands firm when Motta advances, landing a check right hook on the inside and sending the Brazilian back. Motta escapes and circles away, and Miller gives chase and scores another solid right hand when Motta tries to get strikes going over the top. “A-10” is relentless when it comes to the inside leg of his opponent, and one big kick gives Motta all sorts of problems.
Smelling blood, Miller leaps forward to blast Motta in the face with a huge right hand, and Motta’s legs give way beneath him. With Motta falling to the ground with one arm trapped beneath his body, Miller is there to maul him with a blinding barrage of punches and hammerfists. The longtime vet does not take his foot off the gas, knowing he is about to finish the job, as Peterson gives Motta every possible chance to get out of it. With nothing left to offer from Motta, Peterson steps in, and Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller has done it again.
Not only does Miller hold the most fights in company, but he is also now the winningest fighter in UFC history alongside Donald Cerrone with 23 victories apiece.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Nikolas Motta R2 1:58 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta despite loving Jim Miller. He notes Motta is explosive, athletic, has great power, and is patient. He believes Miller's chin and durability are declining, and Motta's striking is too slick and athletic for the aging Miller. He acknowledges Miller's ground advantage but doubts Miller can take the damage to get there.

"i gotta go with mata in this matchup like yes jim is coming off a knockout win over a young prospect but this is a very different fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Big Brady picks Nikolas Motta, noting he hits hard and is nine years younger. He believes Motta's takedown defense has improved and that Jim Miller's gas tank is poor. He predicts Motta will knock out Miller in the second round, though he acknowledges Miller could win early.

win by second round knockout
"give me nicholas moda this guy hits like a truck jim miller is 38. uh give me a nicholas motor to get it done bye knockout I'm going to say second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Cody is hesitant but leans toward Motta. He acknowledges that Jim Miller is a live underdog with excellent submission skills and sneaky power, but he is concerned about Miller's age (38) and Lyme disease, which may affect his cardio. Cody notes that Miller tends to fade in later rounds and that Motta, despite a questionable chin, has power and could finish early. He ultimately doesn't have the courage to pick Miller straight up, so he goes with Motta.

"as much as i recognize live underdog 100 percent maybe mode is the prp pick like maybe he's all the way at the bottom because we can recognize he could [ __ ] in the apple pie i don't think …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Levi is confident in Motta, highlighting his brutal knockout power (devastating KOs over Joe Solecki and Cesar Balmaceda) and improved discipline. He notes that Jim Miller historically struggles past the first round, and Motta has the jiu-jitsu to survive early grappling. Levi expects Motta to weather the early storm and finish Miller in the second or third round.

Motta by KO in second or third round
"give me nick mata to win his ufc debut"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

This fight is likely to end inside the distance. Miller will look for a submission early, but if he fails, his cardio fades and Motta can knock him out. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play regardless of who wins. Motta by KO is also a possibility, but the under is the safer bet. Miller by submission at +350 is a live dog prop.

under 2.5 rounds (-140), Motta by KO (+150 to +200), Miller by submission (+350), Miller round 1 sub (+850)
"the unders is what i i'd be looking at uh but in terms of a side i ended up going on the nicolas mota side and motor by gayo is currently sitting around plus 150 plus 200"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller as a dog, arguing that the line has moved too far in Motta's favor. He points out that Motta's takedown defense is untested and that Miller, with 39 UFC fights, has a massive experience advantage. Paul believes Miller can take Motta down and submit him, or even knock him out. He acknowledges Miller's age and potential cardio issues but thinks the value is on the veteran at +155.

"i'm gonna bet jim miller why not i just think uh why not"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

The MMA Guru picks Nikolas Motta to win by late second-round TKO. He disagrees with the public favoring Jim Miller, arguing that Motta is a better prospect with a solid chin and good technique. He notes that Motta beat Joe Solecki, who controlled Miller on the ground, and that Motta's grappling is better than previous prospects Miller has beaten. He thinks Motta's youth and durability will carry him.

late second round tko
"i'm gonna say not third round i'm saying late second round tko for nicolas motter i think he'll wear down jim miller"
Tom Nolan - Fight History
SCHED vs Farès Ziam
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

The host picks Ziam, stating that he is the more technical striker and expects the fight to stay on the feet. He believes Ziam will land the better shots and be able to stay safe from Nolan's offense. He notes that Ziam has good takedown defense and uses his long limbs well defensively.

"I'm going to take Aziam to get the win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

AJ picks Ziam by KO, citing his surgical kickboxing, improved Muay Thai, and veteran savvy. He views Nolan as a step behind in technical striking and believes Ziam's precision and counter-punching will be too much. AJ expects a finish, possibly by KO or club-and-sub, and notes Ziam's experience advantage.

under 2.5 rounds plus 15; Ziam by KO
"I got Farezam over the big train. I think Ferez Zam is fantastic. He's a surgical kickboxer."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Farès Ziam despite being a self-proclaimed hater. He acknowledges Ziam has evolved, becoming more aggressive and technical. He believes Ziam is cleaner and can fight at range or in the pocket, taking advantage of Tom Nolan's recklessness. He notes the fight is closer than the -300 odds suggest.

Odds too wide, thinks fight is closer than -300
"I'm going to pick Vas though because I think he's a little cleaner. I think he can fight at range if he wants to or as we've seen as of late, he can jump into the pocket and fight there …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Big Brady picks Farès Ziam to win by decision. He notes that Ziam has improved rapidly, showing finishing ability and better grappling. He is not impressed with Tom Nolan, who got knocked out quickly and has been dropped. He thinks Ziam is the better fighter overall but doesn't love the price.

by decision
"I'll go far as I'm to win and win by decision."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is a young, maturing fighter with good takedown defense and volume. He will outwork Farès Ziam over three rounds, pushing the pace and landing more strikes. Nolan is likely a slight underdog but has a bright future.

decision win; likely underdog
"Give me Tom Nolan by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Cody is confident in Ziam, citing his technical striking, improved wrestling, and Tom Nolan's poor durability. He notes Nolan has been hurt by lesser fighters and has weak takedown attempts. Ziam's growth and Nolan's chin issues make Ziam a strong pick.

"Zian's going to touch him at some point. He's going to hurt him at some point. He's going to knock him out at some point. I'm rolling with Fro Xian."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Farès Ziam is picked to win inside the distance because he is the better MMA fighter with improved takedown defense and striking. Tom Nolan is hittable, has poor takedown accuracy (22%), and struggled against Charlie Campbell. Ziam's calculated striking and grappling upgrades make a finish likely, possibly by knockout or submission. The host agrees with the line.

Farès Ziam wins inside the distance (knockout or submission)
"I like FZM to win inside the distance and I actually agree uh with the line. So, give me FZM to finish this fight."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam is on a six-fight win streak against better competition, including wins over Mike Davis and Nazim Sadykhov. Nolan has been fed weaker opponents and hasn't faced anyone of Ziam's caliber. Ziam should outpoint him on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm going to go Zam here. I think Zam wins. The question is, does he get the finish? I'm going to go no. I'm going go decision when for Zion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Lucrative James picks Farès Ziam, citing his well-rounded skill set, improved fight IQ, and experience. He believes Ziam is one level above Tom Nolan in MMA and will win via decision, as Nolan is durable but likely outclassed over 15 minutes. He notes Nolan's X-factor finishing ability but thinks Ziam's technical striking and clinch game will be too much.

"I'm picking for SCM here. I'm picking him to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam has improved takedown defense and a sniper-like striking game. Nolan has poor striking defense and cardio issues. Ziam should pick Nolan apart and finish him in the third round as Nolan slows down. Ziam by third round TKO.

Ziam by TKO in round 3
"I think for the most part, we're going to see ZM pick Nolan apart. I think it'll stop most of the grappling exchanges of Nolan."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Paul picks Ziam by knockout, noting Ziam's well-rounded skills and Nolan's questionable durability. He likes Ziam's sneaky strikes and in-between fighting, and sees Nolan's chin as a major liability. He plans to bet Ziam by KO at +290.

Ziam by knockout at +290
"I like him to win by knockout by like it's like plus 290 out on the market. Um I'll be having a little bit of little bit of fun with that one."
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 0 26 of 61 42% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Charlie Campbell 0 15 of 42 35% 15 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 0 26 of 61 42% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Charlie Campbell 0 15 of 42 35% 15 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 26 of 61 42% 13 of 35 9 of 20 4 of 6 23 of 55 3 of 6 0 of 0
Charlie Campbell 15 of 42 35% 7 of 30 1 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 26 of 61 42% 13 of 35 9 of 20 4 of 6 23 of 55 3 of 6 0 of 0
Charlie Campbell 15 of 42 35% 7 of 30 1 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-160); Campbell (+130)

Round 1
To kick off the main card, the UFC paired off a couple of strikers who have never landed a submission in their respective careers. “Big Train” Nolan (9-1, 3-1 UFC) wants to keep the Oceania train rolling tonight, and he faces a capable brawler in Campbell (9-2, 2-0 UFC) who wants to deck him in the schnoz. Before the fists fly—and they almost certainly will, in great numbers—referee Jim Perdios has to tell them it’s go time. Fists are bumped, and deep breaths are taken around the building.
Both athletes let their kicks go, seemingly trading them one after the other. They go to the body, and then the lead leg. Campbell chew up the front leg with a few heavy kicks, and he lashes out with a pair of left hands that knock Nolan off his feet. Campbell lets the Aussie up, and he walks face-first into a spinning back elbow. The momentum of Campbell pushing forward results him in inadvertently tackling Nolan to the ground, and he backs off and lets Nolan up again. Campbell goes back to attacking the front leg with a kick, and then mixing things up with one up high. Nolan jumps in the air with a knee, and Campbell intercepts him midair with a low kick. The straight punches of Campbell roped in have bloodied the nose of “Big Train,” who takes a few more shots and fires back with a vengeance. Nolan connects with a hard spinning back kick, stunning “The Cannibal” for a second.
Campbell shakes out of it, and he lets Nolan have it with offense that leads him into a clinch. Campbell breaks out of the tie-up and works the body. Patches of Nolan all over are turning red from the impact of the strikes, and Nolan does not mind one bit as he bites down on his mouthpiece and blasts Campbell in the face. Campbell in zombie mode lurches forward to attack, and Nolan drops him. When
Campbell scrambles to his feet but gives up his back, and Nolan drags him down to the floor from behind. The Aussie quickly sets up a rear-naked choke, and it is under the chin almost immediately. While Campbell thinks about toughing it out, before he loses consciousness, he surrenders.
That marks the first sub win for Nolan, and the first submission defeat for Campbell. Fighters from the area still remain undefeated tonight.

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Charlie Campbell R1 4:08 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo picks Tom Nolan over Charlie Campbell, believing Nolan's length, durability, and forward pressure will overcome Campbell's technical striking and leg kicks. He notes that Campbell's leg kicks require planting, which Nolan's movement will prevent. He expects a decision and suggests waiting for round line props.

Expects decision; suggests waiting for round line props.
"I'm going to pick Tom Nolan here. I think technique-wise, he's sort of equal with Charlie, but he's got better defense, or Charlie has better defense, but Tom is long. Tom is lean. Tom is durable. Only actual concern here …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Big Brady picks Charlie Campbell to win by first-round KO. He notes both fighters have power and questionable chins, but Campbell's killer instinct and Nolan's defensive flaws lead him to take the dog. He acknowledges it could go either way.

first round KO
"I'm gonna take the dog and Charlie Campbell. I'm gonna say Charlie Campbell gets an early knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Cody takes Campbell as a dog, citing Nolan's chin issues and poor takedown defense. He notes Campbell has power and can mix in wrestling, and that Nolan's tall frame makes him vulnerable to leg kicks and overhands. He also mentions Nolan's weight cut to 155 may be a factor.

"I'd take a dog shot here on Charlie Campbell"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Connor also picks Nolan, agreeing that Campbell's power is inconsistent and that he doesn't set up his shots. He notes that Nolan is willing to scrap and will put pressure on Campbell, and that Campbell's tendency to fling himself into clinches will play into Nolan's hands. Connor thinks Nolan's chin is not great but good enough to withstand Campbell's power, and that Nolan's volume will win out.

"I guess I'll take Nolan too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

James picks his friend Charlie Campbell, citing Campbell's striking ability and familiarity with Nolan from sparring. He believes Campbell has the power to knock out Nolan, who has been wobbled before. He is confident in Campbell's skills and rooting for him.

"I think Charlie has the chance to land clean on Tom Nolan and we've seen Tom Nolan knocked out before."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The host expects Nolan's power to come through. He thinks Nolan will counter Campbell effectively, land big shots, mix in takedowns and threaten with a front choke, but ultimately a knee or elbow will connect and put Campbell out clean.

win by knockout (knee or elbow)
"I expect Nolan's power to end up coming through here. I think he'll be able to counter Campbell effectively, land some big shots, maybe mix in some takedowns and threaten with that front choke, but I think it'll ultimately be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The Guru picks Tom Nolan, citing his height and reach advantage over Charlie Campbell, as well as Nolan's momentum and development. He notes Campbell's inactivity and believes Nolan's diverse striking (spinning kicks, low kicks) will be too much. He predicts a second-round TKO.

second round TKO
"I'm going with Tom Nolan over Charlie Campbell."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Zane picks Nolan, reasoning that Nolan is willing to scrap and will put pressure on Campbell, sitting down in the pocket and throwing tight combinations. He notes that Nolan has clinch offense and will attack off his back if taken down. Zane thinks Campbell's power is chancy and that he doesn't set up his shots well, making him vulnerable to Nolan's volume and pressure.

"I think I'll go with Nolan."
CANCEL vs Evan Elder
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 0 69 of 175 39% 111 of 236 1 of 8 12% 3 0 2:01
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 66 of 118 55% 92 of 163 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 0 27 of 64 42% 29 of 67 0 of 3 0% 2 0 1:25
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tom Nolan 0 26 of 67 38% 28 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:36
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 37 of 62 59% 37 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tom Nolan 0 16 of 44 36% 54 of 99 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 10 of 27 37% 36 of 71 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 69 of 175 39% 43 of 130 11 of 23 15 of 22 63 of 163 5 of 11 1 of 1
Viacheslav Borshchev 66 of 118 55% 20 of 67 26 of 31 20 of 20 61 of 106 1 of 4 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 27 of 64 42% 13 of 46 6 of 10 8 of 8 24 of 58 2 of 5 1 of 1
Viacheslav Borshchev 19 of 29 65% 7 of 16 7 of 8 5 of 5 19 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tom Nolan 26 of 67 38% 19 of 49 2 of 8 5 of 10 25 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 0
Viacheslav Borshchev 37 of 62 59% 8 of 29 16 of 20 13 of 13 35 of 57 1 of 4 1 of 1
3 Tom Nolan 16 of 44 36% 11 of 35 3 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 40 2 of 4 0 of 0
Viacheslav Borshchev 10 of 27 37% 5 of 22 3 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Tom Nolan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Borshchev (-135), Nolan (+114)

Round 1
It’s knock out or get knocked out in this lightweight pairing, as the two men involved in the collision celebrate all of their respective stoppage wins via strikes. Chins will be tested as “Big Train” Nolan (8-1, 2-1 UFC) crashes into Team Alpha Male’s Borshchev (8-4-1, 3-3-1 UFC), and sparks will fly before the very eyes of referee Marc Goddard. Before trying to lop one another’s head off, the two men bump fists. Nolan pushes off a front kick, and when Borshchev grabs it, the Aussie twirls around and takes a flush body shot. Borshchev gets right in front of Nolan, tossing a leg kick and leaning back to dodge a head kick. Nolan chips at the front leg and winds up with a kick to the body, setting up a takedown effort. Borshchev breaks free, but not before taking a few knees off the face. Nolan kicks his foe up high, and he ducks a punch in hopes of trying to use a body lock to take “Slava” down. Borshchev bounces back upright, and he takes a knee on the face while bent over. Nolan leaps on the back while Borshchev is standing and starts hunting for rear-naked chokes, and Borshchev leans over to try to buck him off. Instead of getting through that, Nolan whips Borshchev to the back, and he snatches up a brabo choke to the surprise of the Team Alpha Male fighter. Nolan wraps the choke up on the other side, and Borshchev turns on his back to keep himself in the fight. Nolan rings his foe’s bell with a 12-6 elbow, but Borshchev still has the wherewithal to explode to his feet and dodge a spinning wheel kick. When Nolan peppers with jabs, Borshchev goes to the lead leg with a few kicks. Nolan lifts a high kick up that connects into the beard, and he rings a few punches together to redden the nose of “Slava Claus.” Nolan times a turning Borshchev to kick him in the ribs, and he gets off a second kick there before tossing two low. Borshchev bears down on him angrily, drilling him in the face with punches until he has to duck a spinning back fist. Borshchev puts his hands on Nolan, leading a right hand to a head kick before shooting. Borshchev keeps the takedown at bay and also protects from a wheel kick, and he ducks into a knee. Nolan chips at the front leg and is pushed back to the fence with a kick. Nolan sees a spinning strike coming, whiffs on a head kick and the two hear the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together, and it is Nolan who prods out a kick first. Nolan uses that push kick to set up two more and a back fist, and Borshchev remains composed without absorbing any of them flush. Nolan spins with a back fist and torques the other direction to reenact the strikes that Sharabutdin Magomedov pulled off last year, but Borshchev’s chin is granite and he does not budge. Nolan spins with an elbow and sells out for them, and Borshchev allows him to do this so he can punch his way into a combo. Nolan comes back at him with a head kick, and “Slava Claus” dodges and weaves the remainder of the fists that fly. Borshchev digs a kick to the breadbasket and then aims another kick to the same spot, and his stomping oblique kicks further frustrate the taller man. Nolan jams a front kick to the gut, and the two mix up their kicks until Borshchev breaks that successive series of kicks with an overhand right. Nolan kicks low again, and they stun one another with single power punches. Nolan leaps in the air with a knee that buzzes Borshchev’s face, and he spins with a back fist at the right time. Borshchev tanks it and drills him with a right hand, and his takedown defense holds up to keep his back to the wall. On Nolan’s second effort, Borshchev hits the deck, and Nolan snatches up a brabo choke as soon as Borshchev is on the mat. Borshchev turns to break out of the submission, fight his way up and start brawling. Nolan does not want to get into this reckless exchange, so he moves to the side to reset. Both men square up and tag one another, and Nolan’s step-in knee is a cherry on top. Borshchev wraps a left hand around the guard, and Nolan counters him with a sharp left. Borshchev tries to toss out three spinning wheel kicks, making Nolan smile before the round wraps up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 3
The lightweights hug, and the last round is here. Borshchev is the more aggressive of the two, hurling kicks and big punches. A sharp Nolan clips Borshchev coming towards him a few times, but it does not enough to shake Borshchev up or mess with his takedown defense, as Borshchev is a short wall of stone. Borshchev bowls Nolan over to his back, and Nolan nails him with two upkicks. As Borshchev is peppering the legs a few times, Nolan turns to his side and blasts Borshchev in the face with the ball of his foot. Nolan is allowed to stand, and he thanks Goddard and Borshchev for this by spinning for a back fist. Nolan doubles up on the spin, and his head kick that follows lumps “Slava Claus” up. As Nolan is feeling himself, he pitches a kick that bangs square into Borshchev’s cup, forcing a stoppage of 30 seconds before Borshchev is good to go. Borshchev starts back up with a brawl, and he swings himself off-balance and wide open for a knee that pounds into the side of his head. Nolan rolls to his back, and Borshchev whips kicks down low at him. Nolan gets away with an illegal upkick as Borshchev on his knees, and he follows Nolan rolling over so he can start up some ground offense. Nolan remains busier from his back, hacking with elbow and swinging with wide-arcing hammerfists to not let Borshchev lay into him. Borshchev’s raining strikes fall short, bouncing into the chest. Nolan flails his legs up again, slashing open a cut on the top of Borshchev’s melon with a surprisingly effective upkick. Borshchev lowers himself into the guard, and he sways back and forth and starts motioning that Nolan’s offense is not doing anything. Nolan ignores his signals and swinging with elbows and punches from his back, while Borshchev is laying into him with open left hands. The wild strikes from Nolan shred Borshchev’s face up, and Borshchev falls to his back and latches on with a leglock. The Aussie laughs at him, and the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borshchev (29-28 Nolan)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Borshchev (29-28 Nolan)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Borshchev (29-28 Nolan)

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Viacheslav Borshchev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady flipped his pick to Tom Nolan, citing Nolan's youth, size advantage, and the hometown factor in Australia. He notes that Borshchev has poor takedown defense and may struggle with the long flight. However, he questions Nolan's chin, as he was dropped by Victor Martinez. Brady thinks someone will get knocked out and predicts Nolan by second-round knockout, but he is not confident.

"I'll say Tom Nolan wins this fight by second round knockout but I think somebody's getting served in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Borshchev will control the pace, counter Nolan effectively, and take advantage of his poor striking defense. He is expected to pick Nolan apart and find a finish around the second round. The pick is for Borshchev to win by knockout or TKO.

finish in round 2
"I think we'll see borchev control the pace of this matchup counter Nolan effectively and take advantage of his poor striking defense which will lead to borchev eventually picking him apart and finding that finish around that second round mark"
WIN vs Alex Reyes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 0 84 of 176 47% 104 of 198 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Alex Reyes 0 69 of 140 49% 89 of 161 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 0 23 of 62 37% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Reyes 0 23 of 43 53% 26 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:29
2 Tom Nolan 0 32 of 63 50% 40 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Reyes 0 27 of 55 49% 28 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:56
3 Tom Nolan 0 29 of 51 56% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Alex Reyes 0 19 of 42 45% 35 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 84 of 176 47% 40 of 112 32 of 49 12 of 15 58 of 141 26 of 33 0 of 2
Alex Reyes 69 of 140 49% 30 of 87 21 of 33 18 of 20 52 of 114 16 of 25 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 23 of 62 37% 10 of 40 10 of 19 3 of 3 16 of 51 7 of 9 0 of 2
Alex Reyes 23 of 43 53% 8 of 22 7 of 13 8 of 8 17 of 35 5 of 7 1 of 1
2 Tom Nolan 32 of 63 50% 18 of 42 10 of 15 4 of 6 22 of 51 10 of 12 0 of 0
Alex Reyes 27 of 55 49% 13 of 37 7 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 45 6 of 10 0 of 0
3 Tom Nolan 29 of 51 56% 12 of 30 12 of 15 5 of 6 20 of 39 9 of 12 0 of 0
Alex Reyes 19 of 42 45% 9 of 28 7 of 10 3 of 4 14 of 34 5 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-1350), Reyes (+800)

Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when matching this next affair, and bettors have seen right through the charade. With odds as high as -1500, power-punching Aussie Nolan (7-1, 1-1 UFC) is largely expected to run over Reyes (13-4, 0-2 UFC) while living up to his nickname of “Big Train.” Reyes has not won a fight since 2017, although he took six years away from the sport due to an infection in his spine. This sport always surprises, and Reyes does sport a 100% finish rate on his own ledger. Before fists fly, the lightweights meet in the middle to tap them while referee Rich Mitchell watches on stoically, ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Nolan walks Reyes down right out of the gate, absorbing a body kick as he works his way forward. Reyes jabs out with his toe extended with a kick, and he chains together a few punches into another kick. Nolan backs him off with a head kick try, but Reyes comes at him with a low kick and punches. Nolan zings a spinning wheel kick on the side of the head, and Reyes frowns and kicks the body. Nolan kicks him back in the side, and he has a head kick bump off the guard. Nolan surges into attack, and Reyes times this blitz so he can take him down easily and take his back while Nolan stands. Reyes slides off the back but holds on from behind, and Nolan grabs the cage to not get pulled away from it. Nolan turns himself about in the clinch, and he gets off an elbow on the inside but is dragged to the mat. Reyes keeps one hook in, only to slide out the back door. Nolan bursts a kick out and pushes Reyes over, and he charges wildly with a knee and a few punches before the underdog ties him up again. Reyes rings him up with two punches, and Nolan gets space and sprints to jump at him with a knee. Nolan slashes out with an elbow, and the two kick at the same time. Reyes misses with a head kick, and he takes deep breaths. Nolan stomps with a kick aimed at the knee, and Reyes responds with a right hand to the body. Nolan spins but does not land anything, and the two start brawling. The overwhelming favorite gets his bell rung and he backs off, but he fires off a few strikes to keep Reyes honest. Reyes backs off and dodges a wheel kick, and he flicks out a front kick. Nolan kicks the body twice and whiffs on a spinning back fist, and he guards himself from a combination and stops a takedown with a knee up the middle. Reyes backs off to gather himself, and they kick at the same time and hit the ground. Nolan somersaults himself backwards, and when he is on his knees, Reyes drills him with a knee illegally. Mitchell sees the foul and calls time, issuing a hard warning without deducting a point. Nolan does not appear compromised, and when they get back to it, he lashes out with a jump knee as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Reyes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 2
There is a touch of gloves from the lightweights to get the second stanza going, and they do not take long to start trading. Nolan lands a few punches and sticks out a few kicks, and he twirls around to smack Reyes in the face with a back fist. Reyes gets his hands on him and clinches, and they dirty box and bang heads together as Mitchell warns them. They split apart, and Reyes darts away to avoid a spin. Nolan keeps stalking forward, letting go with a wheel kick, and Reyes is able to block it. Nolan attacks with power strikes, and Reyes stands firm and elbows him in the dome. Simultaneous kicks land, and Nolan recovers faster and sticks Reyes with a left hand that sets Reyes on his seat. Reyes jumps back up, absorbs a flush jump knee and looks for an overhand right. Nolan jabs and follows with a cross, stinging Reyes again. Reyes recovers to counter, and he even tries a spinning back fist, but it lands on the trapezius muscles. Reyes aims a one-two and is countered with a right hand, and Nolan prepares check knees to stop Reyes from considering a level change. Nolan walks through a right hand as he keeps the pressure on the underdog, cutting Reyes off and checking a low kick. Reyes grabs him and turns him to the fencing, looking for a body lock takedown and settling for trip attempts while clasping his hands from behind. Nolan spins around to break up the grip, elbowing Reyes with short strikes that bust his nose open. Reyes splits off and absorbs a hard spinning kick to his ribs, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Nolan counters a right hand with a step-in knee, and he parries a body kick but takes a right hand flush. Nolan chips at the lead leg, and he spins with a back fist and checks another kick. “Big Train” stands Reyes up with a one-two, and he puts punches together as Reyes tanks them but is bloodied up. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 3
A final glove touch opens up the last round, and Nolan is kicking early and often. Reyes throws one kick of his own before Nolan busts him in the nose with a short left. Reyes reaches his man with a looping right, but Nolan does not even register it and marches ever-forward to do damage. Nolan connects with a leg kick and blocks a high kick aimed at his direction, and he stops a takedown effort only for a body kick to land cleanly. Nolan punts Reyes in the guts, and Reyes keeps a stiff upper lip and retaliates with a big right hook. Reyes tries to slow down his man with a calf kick, only for Nolan to laugh it off and walk towards him. A short combo lands from Reyes, who blocks a body kick and eats a jump knee. Nolan lands a hard body kick, and Reyes does the same. When Nolan spins, Reyes times a takedown, and this results in Nolan setting up a brabo choke while standing. Nolan uses the submission to wrench Reyes to the floor, and lets it go when it is clear Reyes is not in imminent danger. Reyes works to his feet and pushes into a clinch, ducking under to grab Nolan from behind and lean Nolan against the fence. Nolan elbows him in the nose several times to cause blood to flow, and he turns himself around. They trade elbows from close, and their foreheads clack together. Reyes knees the body and is clipped by a spinning elbow, but he is tough as a two-dollar steak and remains in the fight. Elbows continue to land on one another until Reyes shoots, but Nolan is an Australian wall not going anywhere. With seconds to spare, Reyes lets his man have it, throwing caution to the wind with one final flurry. Nolan does the same, and they swing it out and surprisingly have fought a full 15 minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan (30-27 Nolan)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nolan (29-28 Nolan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nolan (30-27 Nolan)

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Alex Reyes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo is extremely confident Tom Nolan will win, calling him a -1000 favorite who should win 98% of the time. He mocks the idea of betting on Nolan at those odds sarcastically, but clearly believes Nolan will steamroll Alex Reyes, who has been out for six years with health issues and looked stiff and chinny in his return. Angelo sees no path for Reyes and considers this a mismatch.

Sarcastically mentions mortgaging the house; no real bet due to extreme odds
"Tom Nolan steamrolls here he he mean he steamrolls here I have no idea how Alex Ray in the UFC let alone on a pay-per-view again."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady picks Tom Nolan to win by first-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking, calling it a fight that shouldn't be sanctioned, as Alex Reyes has fought only three times in seven years and hasn't won in nearly seven years. He notes Nolan is 13 years younger, has a massive height advantage, and is a huge favorite. He believes Nolan will get a vicious first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Nolan is hittable and maybe chinny, but Reyes is unlikely to knock him out.

knockout in round 1
"this is Tom Nolan this is Tom Nolan by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody believes Nolan will win easily but is concerned about his chin after being knocked out in his debut. He notes that Reyes is 37, has fought once in seven years, and has been knocked out in the first round in his last two fights. Cody expects a first-round finish but says the price is too high to bet.

"Nolan is the pick but minus 1150"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win by first-round knockout, noting that Reyes is a washed-up fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC. He acknowledges Nolan's defensive lapses but believes the matchup is predatory and that Nolan will finish early.

round 1 knockout
"I think Tom Nolan's gonna knock him out in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The host is confident in Nolan, citing his size, striking, and youth. He notes Nolan's knockout power and knee up the middle, while dismissing Reyes as past his prime and on a losing streak. He expects a first-round knockout, but warns against betting the heavy chalk due to volatility.

Nolan by knockout, Nolan in round 1
"I'd be very surprised if Tom Nolan ends up fumbling the bag here and loses to a guy like Alex Reyes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul agrees that Nolan should win easily, calling Reyes a 'freebie fight' for the UFC to build Nolan up. He notes Nolan's size and youth advantage, and that Reyes has been inactive and knocked out recently. Paul says Nolan is the pick but the price is ludicrous.

"Nolan's the pick but Nolan's the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan over Alex Reyes. He notes that Reyes is 37 years old, coming off a KO loss to Charlie Campbell after a long layoff, and has had many injuries. He contrasts Reyes' career timeline, starting his pro career in 2007, with Nolan's debut in 2020, calling Reyes a different generation. He acknowledges Nolan has a chin issue but believes his length and youth will prevail. He expects Nolan to win via KO or decision.

"I'm going to go with Tom Nolan like he's literally started his career three years after this guy's second to last fight"
TKO (knee to the body and punches) R1 3:50 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 1 18 of 26 69% 20 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Victor Martinez 0 33 of 64 51% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 1 18 of 26 69% 20 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Victor Martinez 0 33 of 64 51% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 18 of 26 69% 6 of 12 7 of 9 5 of 5 16 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Victor Martinez 33 of 64 51% 14 of 38 13 of 20 6 of 6 29 of 58 0 of 1 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 18 of 26 69% 6 of 12 7 of 9 5 of 5 16 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Victor Martinez 33 of 64 51% 14 of 38 13 of 20 6 of 6 29 of 58 0 of 1 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victor Martinez vs. Tom Nolan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-500), Martinez (+380)

Round 1
The prelims conclude with two lightweights that combine for 12 knockouts in their 19 pro wins, with zero submissions between them. Martinez (13-5, 0-1 UFC) and Nolan (6-1, 0-1 UFC) both came up short in their UFC debuts, with first-round knockout losses introducing them to the UFC brass. Taking charge of the cage will be referee Mark Smith, who checks the fighters in as they decide to touch gloves. Nolan says hello with a front kick, and when that misses, he releases a low kick and then another front kick that connects. Martinez crowds him with a one-two, and Nolan keeps kicking. The Aussie spins with a wheel kick, and Martinez scoots out of the way. The two men trade low kicks, and Nolan lands two more for good measure. When Nolan attacks, Martinez gets off his own leg kicks that disrupt the movement of the taller man. Nolan peppers the Texan with kicks to all targets, and he flicks out a jab before jumping forward with a knee that just misses. Martinez comes back with a one-two, and he eats a body kick when trying another. Nolan digs another kick to the ribs before chopping at the lead wheel, only to step in with a fierce knee. Martinez jabs and lands a leg kick, and Nolan does work with his kicks. Nolan gets off a left hand, and he is driven back by a one-two from “The Brick.” Nolan dodges a punch and fires back a right hand that lands cleanly, and he chews up his foe with all the kicks he can find. Nolan spins with a wheel kick, and when he lands, Martinez charges him and busts him in the chops with a shovel hook. Nolan stumbles back and falls over, and Martinez climbs on top of him in hopes of finishing the job. Nolan’s long legs allow him to tie Martinez up and even consider a triangle choke, and elbows off his back slash Martinez open. Nolan explodes back to his feet, and Martinez follows him up and races at his resetting foe.
Nolan times a perfect knee to the liver, and “The Brick” crumbles to the floor in agony. Nolan finishes the job with a few left hands as Smith has seen enough
, and he walks away with pride, pointing at his knee and going over to the commentary booth to tell them he called it. This is an important victory for the Aussie, who has now earned his last five wins via strikes.

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Victor Martinez R1 3:50 via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo sees Tom Nolan as the more technical striker with length and pressure, while Victor Martinez is a fast, powerful boxer with poor kicks that can be caught. Nolan's takedown defense is a concern, but Martinez's BJJ defense and scramble skills are decent. Angelo picks Nolan but warns against including him in parlays due to his UFC debut and winless record.

"Tom Nolan should be much much better here the length will be an issue the technical skills will likely be be an issue"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody believes Nolan is a legitimate prospect with nasty striking and good size for the weight class. He notes Martinez has had only two fights in four years, was knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, and lacks durability. Cody thinks Nolan's speed, length, and cardio will be too much, and he expects Nolan to win, though he warns about Nolan's chin after the Mota loss.

"Tom Nolan's the player."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Martinez was knocked out in his UFC debut and lacks power. Nolan has a significant height and reach advantage and will take a kick-heavy approach to chop away at Martinez's legs. Nolan should be more disciplined after his loss and can land knees up the middle as Martinez throws overhands. The line is wide but Nolan should win.

Inside the distance or knockout prop for Nolan.
"I'm going to go with Australian here and I you know minus 500 a little bit wide for somebody still so young in their career but I'll be taking a look at the inside the distance odds maybe even The …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul acknowledges the big question marks around Nolan after his knockout loss to Nicholas Mota, but notes Martinez has been knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, who has little power. He sees Nolan as the better athlete with more tools, but the -475 price is too steep to get heavily involved. Paul will pick Nolan but not bet much.

"Tom Nolan will be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan to finish Victor Martinez, likely by TKO in the second round. He notes that Martinez has losses to fighters he doesn't rate, including a TKO loss to Jordan Leavitt. He believes Nolan is a more consistent finisher and will be patient, finding his spots after learning from his first UFC loss.

TKO
"I'm gonna go with Tom Nolan here over Victor Martinez Victor Martinez is a guy who's lost to some people that I just don't rate as Fighters"
LOSS vs Nikolas Motta
TKO (punches) R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolas Motta 1 21 of 40 52% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Tom Nolan 0 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolas Motta 1 21 of 40 52% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Tom Nolan 0 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolas Motta 21 of 40 52% 19 of 35 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 1 13 of 20
Tom Nolan 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolas Motta 21 of 40 52% 19 of 35 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 1 13 of 20
Tom Nolan 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolas Motta vs. Tom Nolan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-298), Motta (+240)

Round 1
Two power-punching lightweights enter the Octagon to make some waves. Motta (13-5, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) may be fighting for his job, depending on the result, while unbested Aussie Nolan (6-0, 0-0 UFC) wants to leave a lasting impression in his promotional debut. Referee Dan Miragliotta draws the charge for this fight that might not need the full 15 minutes, and it opens up with a glove touch from the two combatants. Nolan quickly whips a leg kick on the inside, and he follows it with two punches. Nolan crowds his man and swings hard, and Motta bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back with a vengeance. Nolan sits down on a few kicks as he mixes in punches, while Motta fires off two body kicks that land with loud slaps. Motta takes a few punches on the chin, says “please sir, may I have some more,” and retaliates with a left hand and a vicious right that drops the unbeaten Australian to his seat.
Nolan turns over and tries to survive, but Motta follows him and proceeds to batter him with right hands. The thudding punches continue to connect on the side of the head, and Nolan is showing no signs of recovering at this point. Miragliotta recognizes this and intervenes,
and Nolan thinks about protesting but decides against it as his circuits are still somewhat scrambled. Motta rushes off and proceeds to celebrate with his eclectic corner of Ray Sefo, Jake Shields and Julian Erosa.

The Official Result
Nikolas Motta def. Tom Nolan R1 1:03 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo picks Tom Nolan, believing he is the better striker with good accuracy, power, and pressure. He notes Nolan's poor takedown defense but thinks Motta won't exploit it as he averages zero takedowns per fight. He is slightly concerned about Motta's veteran savvy and explosive striking, and finds the -330 odds too steep for a UFC debutant. He plans to leave the fight alone rather than bet.

"I'm still going to go Nolan here though I do think Nolan is the better Striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady acknowledges Tom Nolan's defensive flaws but believes Nikolas Motta's confidence and durability are shot. He notes Motta has been knocked out repeatedly and even struggled against low-output fighters. Brady expects Nolan's power and aggression to overwhelm Motta, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Tom Nolan knock out a very chinny Nicholas Moda and I think it comes in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody picks Nolan but is hesitant, noting that Motta is a shell of himself and has lost confidence. He acknowledges Nolan's inexperience and defensive flaws, but believes Motta's recent performances are so poor that Nolan can win. He says it's a trappy fight and he's not confident.

"it's going to be a Tom Nolan pick for the parlays"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win, but is hesitant due to Nolan's inexperience. He compares Nolan to a green Carlos Condit, praising his length and variety of strikes. Vreeland worries about Nolan making rookie mistakes against the experienced Motta, who has knockout power. He thinks Nolan can get a finish if he avoids Motta's big hooks.

"I'm gonna pick him to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is an undefeated 23-year-old with a massive 6'3" frame and 76-inch reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Motta. He earned his UFC contract by destroying Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series, showcasing his speed and power. Motta has durability issues and has been hurt in multiple fights, which Nolan can exploit. I expect Nolan to use his physical advantages to brutalize Motta and finish him inside the first round by KO. The minus 330 line is a bit steep for a debutant, but the matchup favors Nolan heavily.

Nolan inside the distance, by KO
"I think Nolan has the power the youth the durability um and the explosivity to land on Mota and get him out of there so give me Nolan inside the distance I'm going to say by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul picks Nolan as a fade of Motta, noting that Motta's durability and confidence are gone. He says he has no intention of betting Motta and that Nolan is unproven but likely wins. He calls it a trappy fight and is not confident.

"it's a it's a mod of fade Tom Nolan for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan, highlighting his size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes that Nikolas Motta has been too finishable recently, with KO losses to Manel Torres, Trey Ogden, and Jim Miller. He believes Nolan's power and size will catch Motta's chin and put him away by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going with Tom Nolan... I feel like Tom Nolan big enough powerful enough dangerous enough in the first round to catch Nicholas motter on that chin and put him away by TKO"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo picks Tom Nolan, believing he is the better striker with good accuracy, power, and pressure. He notes Nolan's poor takedown defense but thinks Motta won't exploit it as he averages zero takedowns per fight. He is slightly concerned about Motta's veteran savvy and explosive striking, and finds the -330 odds too steep for a UFC debutant. He plans to leave the fight alone rather than bet.

"I'm still going to go Nolan here though I do think Nolan is the better Striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady acknowledges Tom Nolan's defensive flaws but believes Nikolas Motta's confidence and durability are shot. He notes Motta has been knocked out repeatedly and even struggled against low-output fighters. Brady expects Nolan's power and aggression to overwhelm Motta, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Tom Nolan knock out a very chinny Nicholas Moda and I think it comes in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody picks Nolan but is hesitant, noting that Motta is a shell of himself and has lost confidence. He acknowledges Nolan's inexperience and defensive flaws, but believes Motta's recent performances are so poor that Nolan can win. He says it's a trappy fight and he's not confident.

"it's going to be a Tom Nolan pick for the parlays"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win, but is hesitant due to Nolan's inexperience. He compares Nolan to a green Carlos Condit, praising his length and variety of strikes. Vreeland worries about Nolan making rookie mistakes against the experienced Motta, who has knockout power. He thinks Nolan can get a finish if he avoids Motta's big hooks.

"I'm gonna pick him to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is an undefeated 23-year-old with a massive 6'3" frame and 76-inch reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Motta. He earned his UFC contract by destroying Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series, showcasing his speed and power. Motta has durability issues and has been hurt in multiple fights, which Nolan can exploit. I expect Nolan to use his physical advantages to brutalize Motta and finish him inside the first round by KO. The minus 330 line is a bit steep for a debutant, but the matchup favors Nolan heavily.

Nolan inside the distance, by KO
"I think Nolan has the power the youth the durability um and the explosivity to land on Mota and get him out of there so give me Nolan inside the distance I'm going to say by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul picks Nolan as a fade of Motta, noting that Motta's durability and confidence are gone. He says he has no intention of betting Motta and that Nolan is unproven but likely wins. He calls it a trappy fight and is not confident.

"it's a it's a mod of fade Tom Nolan for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan, highlighting his size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes that Nikolas Motta has been too finishable recently, with KO losses to Manel Torres, Trey Ogden, and Jim Miller. He believes Nolan's power and size will catch Motta's chin and put him away by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going with Tom Nolan... I feel like Tom Nolan big enough powerful enough dangerous enough in the first round to catch Nicholas motter on that chin and put him away by TKO"