Career Averages - Francisco Prado
Career Averages - Ottman Azaitar
Francisco Prado
Ottman Azaitar
Francisco Prado - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Radtke | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 121 of 164 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 9:07 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 2 | 1:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Radtke | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 40 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Radtke | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 41 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Charles Radtke | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 40 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Radtke | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 13 |
| Francisco Prado | 29 of 66 | 43% | 16 of 46 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 8 | 17 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Radtke | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Francisco Prado | 8 of 10 | 80% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Radtke | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Francisco Prado | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 | |
| 3 | Charles Radtke | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Francisco Prado | 11 of 34 | 32% | 7 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Charlie Radtke, citing his athletic grappling, powerful striking, and controlling ground game. He notes Radtke's tendency to slow down and be hittable but believes he has more tools than Prado. He expects a decision win, acknowledging Prado's toughness and durability despite his losing streak.
Big Brady is not high on Prado, noting he is undersized for welterweight and has only one UFC win. He thinks Radtke will be the bigger, stronger, more physical fighter with wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He expects Radtke to take down Prado and win by decision, as Prado is durable and has never been finished.
Cody also picks Prado, noting Radtke's low output and Prado's improved wrestling. He thinks Prado can scramble back to his feet and land damaging shots.
Connor picks Radtke based on his wrestling advantage and range tools. He notes that Prado's wrestling is terrible and Radtke can outwrestle him. He acknowledges Radtke's lack of durability but trusts his ability to control the fight with takedowns.
Daniel thinks Radtke has plateaued and is a finished product, while Prado is young, durable, and improving. He expects Prado to be too tough and enthusiastic.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Radtke, believing he will dominate. He notes that Radtke is a full-sized welterweight with good cardio and fight IQ, while Prado is moving up and has not shown high-level skills. He thinks Radtke will win clear rounds, possibly by decision.
James picks Radtke based on his grappling advantage, though he notes Radtke's weight cut issues. He expects a decision win via control.
Radtke's grappling and pressure should be enough to outwork Prado. Prado has a better gas tank and takedown defense than Radtke's last opponent, but Radtke's clinch and BJJ are strong. Prado's striking is his best path, but he often grapples unnecessarily. Radtke can grind out a decision, though the line is a bit steep for confidence.
Paul picks Prado as an underdog, believing his power and durability can overcome Radtke's low-volume wrestling. He thinks Prado can land a big shot or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke over Francisco Prado. He notes that Prado has lost four in a row and is a bit basic with a Mike Tyson style that hasn't worked at welterweight. Radtke has KO power and looked good against Brenneman, with a wrestling advantage and improved stand-up training with Belal Muhammad. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Radtke.
Zane picks Radtke, agreeing that his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Prado is durable but walks blindly into people, making him easy to take down. He acknowledges Radtke's chin issues but trusts his wrestling to secure the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 47 of 77 | 61% | 64 of 94 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 6:49 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 56 of 105 | 53% | 84 of 133 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 36 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:04 | |
| 2 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 32 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 16 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 47 of 77 | 61% | 34 of 58 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 34 of 62 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 10 |
| Francisco Prado | 56 of 105 | 53% | 32 of 78 | 21 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 75 | 15 of 17 | 7 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 7 of 9 | 77% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 17 of 28 | 60% | 8 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 9 | |
| 2 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 24 of 43 | 55% | 16 of 31 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Francisco Prado | 26 of 55 | 47% | 15 of 43 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 16 of 25 | 64% | 14 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
| Francisco Prado | 13 of 22 | 59% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prado (-148), Veretennikov (+124)
Round 1
Coming to the promotion two years ago with a head full of steam, then-21-year-old Prado (12-3, 1-3 UFC) has largely struggled, earning one victory among three deflating losses. He takes a much-needed step back in level of competition when he faces Veretennikov (12-6, 0-2 UFC), who lost on the 2021 season of the Contender Series and worked his way into the promotion with a trio of stoppages. Since then, not so much for the man fighting out of Kings MMA. The welterweight clash, a historic battle between Argentina and Kazakhstan, will be overseen by referee Jason Herzog. They clap hands to get started.
Prado marches his man down hurling a leg kick, and on the counter, he charges to tackle Veretennikov down to the ground. In the first 15 seconds, Prado has assumed half guard, keeping Veretennikov flat on his back while looping his left arm around the head for an arm-triangle choke setup. Prado is on half guard on the other side, and Veretennikov defends with a guillotine choke off his back. This is not a wise decision, as Prado cinches up the counter in the form of a Von Flue—or as we call it on the play-by-play, Von Preux—which forces a wild scramble. Prado spins around to north-south position, and he winds up taking Veretennikov’s back momentarily. Prado willingly turns over to his back to lace up a triangle choke, while Veretennikov comfortably sits on him landing body shots. Prado keeps his legs high even if they may not be quite long enough to lock it up from this position. He transitions to an armbar, and Veretennikov lifts him in the air and violently slams him on his face to break up the submission.
Prado appears to be stunned from the slam, and Veretennikov stands over him dropping down hammers until moving himself back into Prado’s guard. The strikes from above have caused some damage on Prado’s forehead, and he keeps his guard open until Veretennikov stands. Prado just stands back up to follow him, and he takes two stiff knees to the body when pushing forward. Veretennikov connects with two punches and a body kick, and he walks through ha left hand to work the body with several more strikes. Veretennikov spins with a wheel kick to the side of the dome, and he plants his feet and knees the Argentinian in the midsection once more. Prado looks for a takedown, and Veretennikov breaks out of the first effort. Prado transitions from double to single as he looks for a takedown with Veretennikov’s back on the fence, and Veretennikov defends the attempt and tries to counter-throw his adversary to the mat. Veretennikov gives him a few more knees to think about until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Round 2
The fighters get right to business to start off the second round. Prado appears to already be flagging a bit, while Veretennikov is sharp as a tack. He clips Prado with a short burst of punches, shaking up Prado but not forcing him to back again. Instead, Prado doggedly pursues a double, and he lifts Veretennikov up but cannot ground him. Prado is forced to disengage, and he measures a strong calf kick that forces Veretennikov to recoil his leg. Prado uses that success to land a few more strikes, and he allows Veretennikov to spin with a kick. Prado grabs him from behind and suplexes him, turning himself around to assume half guard while Veretennikov has an arm around his neck. Like the last round, this opens Veretennikov up to a Von Flue shoulder choke again.
Veretennikov release his own grip before getting trapped, and Prado blasts him in the face with an elbow that bounces his head off the canvas. Prado stays heavy, smothering Veretennikov with chest-to-chest pressure. Only lifting himself up to strike or set something up, Prado pursues the arm-triangle once more. Veretennikov explodes to turn out of the sub and power back to his feet, and Prado chases him upright. The ground strikes from Prado open a cut on the side of Veretennikov’s eye, but he pays it no mind as he slams his fist on Prado’s body. Prado retaliates with a six-punch flurry ending with one to the liver. Veretennikov shrugs them off and lets fly a high kick, hopping back to avoid another body shot but still taking some damage on the way. Prado dodges a high kick, eats a right hand and fires one back up top. Veretennikov scores a few knees, trips Prado up but does not ground him. They land blows at the same time, with Prado’s the heavier of the two. Veretennikov scores a single body kick before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Round 3
There is a glove touch to open the final frame. Prado surges into action, ignoring a low kick to loop a pair of punches over the top. Prado fakes up top to shoot in on the hips, getting hold of a single and lifting Veretennikov in the air. Veretennikov is able to turn him about mid-air to put the Argentinian on his back, but he is quick to bail on the grappling to stand up. Prado follows him with another takedown shot, abandoning to bash Veretennikov with an elbow and a thumping low kick that makes Veretennikov take a turn. Both men crash together letting fists fly, and Veretennikov tries to spin with a wheel kick but is so tired that Prado grips him from behind before the foot comes off the ground. Prado easily gets his foe down and advances to full mount with over three minutes left. Prado slashes down with 12-to-6 elbows, and he allows Veretennikov to turn partially so he can take his back. Prado attacks a choke before he gets a hook in, and he lets it go to drill down another elbow or two.
Veretennikov fights back to his feet, shaking Prado off his back, and he goes to the well with a failed spin kick that results him in getting taken down again. The two scramble, with Prado standing first and trying to get hold of another takedown from the side. Prado settles for a knee to the jaw with Veretennikov leaned over, and he drops down in pursuit of a single. Veretennikov stifles the attempt and looks for his own trip, kneeing Prado in the belly when he does not ground the Argentinian. Veretennikov jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and Prado takes advantage of this play by stepping over to half guard to set up a Von Preux again. Prado pulls his neck out and calms himself down with 20-ish seconds to go. Rather than go for broke and allow Veretennikov to get back up, he wraps up the fight with some moderate ground-and-pound. For the first time tonight, the fighters go the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Francisco Prado via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Francisco Prado despite being too small for welterweight, because he can exploit Veretennikov's wrestling holes. He notes Prado's power and durability, and loves the -140 odds, calling it a discount due to Prado's last loss. He plans to bet on Prado.
Big Brady picks Nikolay Veretennikov, questioning Francisco Prado's decision to move up to welterweight. He notes Veretennikov's reach, technical striking, and better volume, while Prado is undersized with poor wrestling. He predicts Veretennikov wins by decision, calling the line questionable.
Connor picks Prado due to his pace, durability, and ability to pressure. He notes that Veretennikov has limited output and poor grappling, while Prado is tough and can push the pace. However, he warns that Veretennikov's range could cause problems if Prado doesn't close distance effectively.
The host cites Veretennikov's experience and strength of schedule advantage, and believes he can thwart Prado's power punching approach. He expects a full mixed martial arts performance and a win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Francisco Prado, arguing that Prado is not a welterweight and is too small for the division. He notes Prado's reach disadvantage (69" vs 74") and lack of power, while Veretennikov is well-rounded, taller, and rangier. The Guru believes Prado's game plan is predictable as a shorter fighter, and Veretennikov will win by decision or TKO.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Prado for his durability and pressure. He notes that Veretennikov has limited ideas and output, and Prado's toughness should carry him. However, he mentions the fight could be ugly if Prado wrestles.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 68 of 184 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 59 of 146 | 40% | 64 of 152 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 26 of 69 | 37% | 33 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 68 of 184 | 36% | 39 of 146 | 24 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 56 of 169 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 59 of 146 | 40% | 17 of 92 | 19 of 28 | 23 of 26 | 47 of 132 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 20 of 58 | 34% | 17 of 51 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 22 of 57 | 38% | 5 of 34 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 11 | 18 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 22 of 57 | 38% | 11 of 43 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 18 of 41 | 43% | 5 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 13 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 26 of 69 | 37% | 11 of 52 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 19 of 48 | 39% | 7 of 33 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-225), Prado (+185)
Round 1
It may be shocking to some that Matthews (20-7, 13-7 UFC) is 30 years of age, but he will be entering into his 21st UFC outing as the main card opens up. “The Celtic Kid” will have to tangle with Argentinian gunslinger Prado (12-2, 1-2 UFC), who has 12 career wins with six by submission and the other six via knockout. The welterweights will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who plans on keeping things on the up-and-up following the glove touch. Matthews jabs his way forward, skirting away from a low kick early. Matthews follows a jab with a right hand, and he dips to dodge a looping hook. Matthews steps in to mark up Prado with a sharp right hand, and Prado kicks and flips himself over to get back to his feet. Both men meet in the middle and throw massive leather, and Prado gets stunned momentarily but is ready and willing to keep brawling if the mood fits them. Matthews peels back, instead measuring with long, straight punches. Prado lunges at him and tries to spin with a back fist, but the strike goes wide. Prado gets in a low kick but rips the body with a right hand, and the two clash into a clinch that allows Matthews to bust Prado in the chops with uppercuts. Matthews pushes off and takes a body shot on the way out. Matthews strikes first and last in a combination, and he lets Prado escape out the side so he can time a body kick. They proceed to pop one another with simultaneous hooks, and Prado keeps sitting down on sheer power. The leg kicks are effective for the Argentinian, who escapes danger by a matter of millimeters as the two swing bad intentions at one another’s skull. Matthews finds his target with a piercing right hand again and again, damaging Prado’s face but not drawing blood. Prado rushes forward to get hold of a body lock, and he lowers the Aussie to his back with a falling slam. Matthews absorbs an elbow to prompt him to stand up quickly, and he engages in a short but fierce slugfest where he does cut open Prado’s right eyebrow. As the punches continue to come from Matthews, he chases his foe down until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and it is Matthews who cuts the cage off right off the bat. Prado is lured into a high-amplitude swing fest, with Matthews the faster, more accurate of the two. Prado uses a standing elbow to frame off, only for Matthews to pounce and split a cut open on the bridge of the nose. Prado keeps Matthews honest with his haymakers, but Matthews is defter and able to keep Prado on his back foot. Prado’s left hook still gets in, and his takedown shot is shoved aside. Prado drives a knee on the jaw, and he gets driven back by a fierce left hand. Prado slings a hard leg kick, but it is one-and-done as Matthews has him backing away. Prado rips a left to the liver and fakes a spin so he can shoot for a takedown, but Matthews is wise to it and punches him in the face in response. Matthews intercepts Prado coming in with an uppercut, and he has his takedown defense ready to shut down an entry. Prado succeeds in planting Matthews back against the fence, grinding on the veteran and working on him with knees and short shots. Matthews wraps up a possible submission setup, and he pushes Prado away to his preferred range. Matthews snaps the head back with a litany of uppercuts, and he parries a front kick when backing away. Matthews’ hands are sharp and active, putting several together every time Prado hurls one big one. Another exchange leads to a cut on the top of Prado’s hairline on the left side, and blood streams immediately into his eye. The horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open the final frame, and Matthews fights behind a jab to get inside. This leads to huge punches from both sides, and Matthews’ land first and cleaner. Prado goes to the body with a kick as he backs away, and he loops a right hand that Matthews is able to dodge. Matthews’ volume punching is forcing Prado to fight conservatively, and it allows Matthews to pick up on the timing when Prado loads up at him. Matthews strings two or three together as Prado snaps one punch off, and he slaps Prado in the face with the instep of his foot. The Argentinian shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and his effort is tossed aside without much wasted movement. Matthews sits down on two heavy left hands, blasting Prado in the jaw and stunning him two times in a row. Prado closes in to clinch and get his head back, only to lean too far down to absorb a knee on the chin. Matthews gets a little space and starts rattling off short combinations, while Prado is relegated to single power swings. Matthews dips and pops Prado with two right hands after evading a massive blow, and he lets Prado overswing so he can further touch him. Matthews leans far enough down to avoid two punches, and he opens up with a right hand that snaps the head back before clinching Prado. Prado backs away out of it and shoots for a takedown, and the two clash heads. Matthews grinds on his man against the fencing as seconds tick off the clock, hanging on with knees to the body and thigh until the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Francisco Prado via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, citing his technical striking advantage and superior grappling. He notes that Prado is moving up a weight class and will be undersized. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Matthews in Australia. However, he acknowledges Matthews' inconsistency. Brady predicts a competitive decision win for Matthews.
Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing with Zane's analysis. He notes that Prado is a brawler who will walk into Matthews' shots. He adds that Matthews' back-foot boxing should work well. However, he hopes Prado can make it interesting by just swarming, but expects Matthews to win.
Matthews impressed with his ability to take opponents down in his last fight. He will mix striking and grappling to keep Prado on the defensive. The pick is for Matthews to win by decision.
Zane picks Matthews, noting that Prado has no range game and poor defense. Matthews can potshot from the back foot and avoid Prado's hooks. He thinks Matthews' speed and technical boxing will be too much. However, he dislikes the booking because Matthews is a gatekeeper who should be fighting prospects, not getting favorable matchups.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 120 of 272 | 44% | 120 of 272 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 90 of 246 | 36% | 91 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 29 of 73 | 39% | 29 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 50 of 110 | 45% | 50 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 32 of 88 | 36% | 33 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 43 of 102 | 42% | 43 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 29 of 85 | 34% | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 120 of 272 | 44% | 87 of 228 | 25 of 36 | 8 of 8 | 117 of 268 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 90 of 246 | 36% | 30 of 155 | 26 of 47 | 34 of 44 | 88 of 244 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 27 of 60 | 45% | 14 of 41 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 29 of 73 | 39% | 12 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 16 | 27 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 50 of 110 | 45% | 42 of 100 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 32 of 88 | 36% | 8 of 54 | 11 of 19 | 13 of 15 | 32 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Zellhuber | 43 of 102 | 42% | 31 of 87 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 29 of 85 | 34% | 10 of 51 | 10 of 21 | 9 of 13 | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Zellhuber as the more well-rounded fighter, citing his length, takedown defense, and ability to threaten submissions. He believes Zellhuber will avoid Prado's early storm and take over as Prado fades. He mentions a decision win is likely but also considers a no action bet.
Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He notes that Zellhuber is a hometown fighter from Mexico City and has a height and reach advantage. He likes Zellhuber's volume, cardio, and sneaky power and submission game. He is not high on Francisco Prado, who has fought lower-level competition. Brady expects the fight to be competitive but thinks Zellhuber will do enough to win a decision.
Cody picks Prado by KO in round 1, having bet that prop at +1300. He notes Zellhuber's chin is sketchy and he keeps his chin up, making him hittable. He thinks Prado's power could cause problems, though he admits Zellhuber has more intangibles. He is not touching the moneyline.
The host sees Zellhuber as an improving prospect with a rangy striking style and slick jiu-jitsu. He believes Zellhuber's footwork and straight shots will keep Prado from getting inside the pocket, and even if Prado tries to take it to the ground, his wrestling isn't good enough. He predicts Zellhuber will touch up Prado, possibly get a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Zellhuber, citing his superior volume, speed, length, and developing ground game. He notes Zellhuber's cast-iron chin and ability to take a punch to give back two or three. He believes Zellhuber's volume and range will overtake Prado, and he may mix in takedowns and grappling. He is backing Zellhuber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.
Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.
The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.
Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.
The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 59 of 104 | 56% | 78 of 126 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 32 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 59 of 104 | 56% | 28 of 70 | 13 of 14 | 18 of 20 | 49 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Francisco Prado | 28 of 75 | 37% | 18 of 58 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 28 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 15 of 20 | 75% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Francisco Prado | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 13 of 38 | 34% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 19 of 35 | 54% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Francisco Prado | 8 of 25 | 32% | 6 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.
Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.
Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.
Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.
Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.
Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.
Ottman Azaitar - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.
Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.
Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.
Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.
Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.
Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.
The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.
Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.
The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 1 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 1 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Azaitar (-115), Frevola (-105)
Round 1
Azaitar returns to active competition for the first time since September 2020, and he looks to extended his UFC winning streak to three after back-to-back first-round finishes. Frevola, a New York native and Dana White’s Contender Series alum, is coming off a first-round TKO triumph himself. Dan Miragliotta will get his first reffing assignment of the night for this lightweight affair. Frevola comes out with big movements, missing a high kick and a spinning kick. Azaitar circles on the outside and lands a jab. Frevola answers with a body kick. Frevola moves in and lands a one-two. Azaitar backs his foe up with a front kick. A right from Azaitar backs up Frevola. He follows that with a nice front kick down the middle. A counter right lands for Frevola in an exchange, but Azaitar makes Frevola stubmle with a short left hook. Frevola snaps his foe’s head back with a jab. Azaitar looks to go on the attack as he backs Frevola into the fence with a punching combination.
That proves to be a costly decision, as Frevola lands two short rights in close quarters before putting out Azaitar’s lights with a clean left hook.
Frevola lands a couple standing-to-ground punches before Miragliotta dives in to save an unconscious Azaitar.
The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Ottman Azaitar via KO (Punch) R1 2:30
Angelo notes that Azaitar is a powerful striker who thrives in chaos, while Frevola is a tough wrestler who charges forward. He is concerned about Azaitar's two-year layoff but assumes he is prepared. He picks Azaitar and plans to bet on Azaitar inside the distance if the odds are favorable, because he believes if Azaitar wins it will be by stoppage, while Frevola's path is a decision.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar to win by first-round knockout. He believes Frevola will choose to stand and bang, which plays into Azaitar's power. He notes Azaitar hits harder than anyone Frevola has faced, and that Frevola has been knocked out before (by Terrence McKinney in 7 seconds) and dropped multiple times. He acknowledges Azaitar's inactivity and takedown defense concerns, but trusts his power. He says if Frevola wrestles he could win, but he doesn't trust him to do so.
Cody picks Azaitar, citing his legitimate power and the fact that Frevola has durability issues, having been knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes and dropped by Lando Vannata. He notes that Azaitar has been on a long layoff but was given a favorable matchup. Cody thinks Azaitar will land a big shot and finish Frevola in the first or second round.
Connor picks Azaitar, noting that Frevola has been knocked out early by powerful punchers like Polo Reyes and Terrence McKinney. He points out that Azaitar is an accurate and aggressive finisher who comes out of the gate on point. Connor acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Frevola's versatility gives him an edge, but he trusts Azaitar's early power.
Daniel Levi picks Ottman Azaitar, believing he will knock out Frevola early. He notes that Frevola has a suspect chin and has been dropped in multiple fights, while Azaitar has knockout power. However, he warns that if Azaitar doesn't finish early, Frevola's pace and heart could take over in later rounds. Levi sees this as a pick'em and is leaning toward Azaitar's finishing ability.
The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Azaitar via KO in round 1. He notes Azaitar's 12 finishes in 13 wins and Frevola's fragility. However, he also sees a path for Frevola via submission if he survives the early onslaught. The best bet is the under 2.5 rounds to cover both scenarios. Official prediction is Azaitar by KO round 1.
Paul is torn but leans towards Azaitar getting the finish, though he is more drawn to the under 1.5 rounds prop. He notes that Azaitar hits very hard and Frevola has been knocked out before, but he is unsure about Azaitar's grappling if taken down. Paul thinks the fight will end early, likely by Azaitar KO, but he prefers the under prop.
The MMA Guru picks Ottman Azaitar, surprised he is an underdog. He notes Frevola's vulnerability in the pocket and Azaitar's power, predicting a KO in the second round. He acknowledges Azaitar's long layoff and past grappling issues but believes Frevola isn't explosive enough to exploit them.
Zane picks Azaitar, comparing him to Abdul Razak Alhassan in terms of early explosiveness and accuracy. He notes that Frevola has been slept by similar fighters and that Azaitar's left hook is a real threat. Zane also mentions that Frevola's durability is questionable, and Azaitar follows up on damage well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 22 | 72% | 12 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 22 | 72% | 12 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Khama Worthy, noting that Worthy has rejuvenated his career since moving up to 155 lbs and has a touch of death. He acknowledges that Azaitar hits extremely hard and has been rocked in fights, but Worthy's length and reach advantage could be key. He is not betting this fight but is looking at the under.
The host is not a Worthy believer and thinks Azaitar's power and activity in the first round can draw out Worthy's counters and land his own. He likes Azaitar by first-round KO and mentions the prop at +350. However, he is skeptical about betting Azaitar at plus money and would prefer a better price.
The MMA Guru picks Khama Worthy, noting that Ottman Azaitar has been fed hand-picked opponents and has a criminal past but hasn't faced someone with Worthy's experience. He believes Worthy's patience and experience against tough competition will allow him to survive Azaitar's early onslaught, then slow the fight down and eventually get a third-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Teemu Packalén | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Teemu Packalén | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 27 of 53 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 |
| Teemu Packalén | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 27 of 53 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 |
| Teemu Packalén | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.
Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.
The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.
Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.
The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.
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