UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva Next Fight
Age 27
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 4"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Viktoriia Dudakova
2.87 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.4 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.73 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Istela Nunes
4.28 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.07 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Viktoriia Dudakova
Moneyline
BetMGM -190
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetRivers +235
Decision
BetRivers +220
Istela Nunes
Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
BetMGM +600
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +410
Viktoriia Dudakova - Fight History
LOSS vs Fatima Kline
TKO (elbows) R2 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fatima Kline 0 15 of 32 46% 42 of 72 2 of 2 100% 0 3 6:05
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 1 of 3 33% 4 of 6 2 of 6 33% 0 1 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fatima Kline 0 11 of 16 68% 25 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 2 2:41
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:41
2 Fatima Kline 0 4 of 16 25% 17 of 40 2 of 2 100% 0 1 3:24
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fatima Kline 15 of 32 46% 13 of 30 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 2 of 2 11 of 23
Viktoriia Dudakova 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fatima Kline 11 of 16 68% 9 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 7 of 8
Viktoriia Dudakova 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Fatima Kline 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 15
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Angelo picks Fatima Kline but is highly critical of the -900 odds, calling them 'absurd' for a fighter with only seven professional fights and no UFC wins. He acknowledges Kline's grappling advantage but notes her lack of strength and recent loss where she was taken down. He suggests the better bet might be on Victoria Dudakova via the plus 3.5 round spread, as he believes Dudakova could win a round and cover. He expects the fight to go to decision.

Bet on Victoria Dudakova plus 3.5 rounds if available; fight goes to decision
"Fatima Klein is a minus 900 favorite this woman has seven professional fights seven not 30 has accomplished literally nothing zero wins in the UFC minus 900 favorite do not bet on that woman"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Big Brady is very high on Fatima Kline, calling her the future. He criticizes Dudakova's cardio, striking, and grappling, noting she looked terrible against Sam Hughes and struggled against Jinu Fry. He highlights Kline's well-rounded skills, training with Erin Blanchfield, and her black belt in BJJ. Brady predicts Kline will wear down Dudakova and finish her by third-round submission, as Kline has stated she wants a finish in her strawweight debut.

third round submission
"I think she wears down dudova and gets her out of there by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Cody picks Kline but refuses to bet at -1000, calling the line absurd. He notes Kline's grappling and training with Blanchfield, but warns of Dudakova's physicality and potential for an upset. He advises passing or using Kline in deep parlays only.

"she can win she should win at minus 10,000 I want absolutely no part of it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Daniel thinks Kline should be favored but questions the -1000 price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Dudakova has had disappointing performances and a staph infection, but getting a Russian fighter at +625 is rare. He leans Kline but says he'll probably pass unless he sees something at weigh-ins.

dog-or-pass situation, possibly half unit on Dudakova
"sure I'll pick Fatima to win this fight but again Chris Lee judging this fight Adelaide bird what do they see"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Fatima Kline

Kline returns to her natural strawweight class after being outmuscled at a higher weight on short notice. She should showcase her skills and grind out Dudakova, possibly finding a submission later in the fight.

submission
"I'm expecting her to Showcase why a lot of people were so high on her coming into the UFC as she returns to her actual weight class at strawweight and I think that'll be enough for her to go out …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Paul picks Kline but also refuses to bet at -1000. He notes her well-rounded skills and natural weight class, but warns of women's MMA volatility. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins and possibly taking a small flyer on Dudakova.

"I'll pick kin but uh I can't see myself betting this number"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

The Guru picks Kline despite being surprised by the wide odds (9-1 favorite). He thinks it's a 50-50 fight leaning towards Kline but trusts the oddsmakers know something about Dudakova. He notes 48% of people are picking Dudakova but goes with Kline because of the betting line.

odds: -900
"I'm picking ftim M Klein I don't know what the story is but there's some kind of story behind the scenes"
LOSS vs Sam Hughes
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 61 of 144 42% 104 of 199 3 of 10 30% 0 0 4:38
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 97 of 193 50% 139 of 240 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 25 of 66 37% 34 of 79 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:24
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 30 of 70 42% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
2 Sam Hughes 0 25 of 53 47% 34 of 65 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:23
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 41 of 80 51% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Sam Hughes 0 11 of 25 44% 36 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 26 of 43 60% 46 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 61 of 144 42% 45 of 122 15 of 21 1 of 1 50 of 125 11 of 19 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 97 of 193 50% 65 of 147 24 of 38 8 of 8 86 of 179 6 of 9 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 9 of 12 0 of 0 17 of 53 8 of 13 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 30 of 70 42% 19 of 51 7 of 15 4 of 4 26 of 64 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Sam Hughes 25 of 53 47% 19 of 46 6 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 48 3 of 5 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 41 of 80 51% 29 of 66 10 of 12 2 of 2 39 of 77 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Sam Hughes 11 of 25 44% 10 of 22 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 26 of 43 60% 17 of 30 7 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo picks Dudakova but is hesitant because the odds are too high for a close fight. He thinks Dudakova is the better fighter skill-for-skill and expects her to wrestle early, but warns that if she lets Hughes pressure, she could have a tough night. He advises against betting the moneyline and recommends the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; do not bet moneyline
"I'm going to pick Victoria dudova... these odds are atrocious do not bet on Victoria dudova don't touch the money line Hammer the over two and a half"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady acknowledges Sam Hughes is a live dog but thinks Dudakova can go the full 15 minutes without gassing. He notes Hughes has poor takedown defense and striking defense, while Dudakova should do enough to win a close decision. He mentions Dudakova's last poor performance was due to a staph infection on her ass, which should not be a factor this time.

"I'm going to take d toova by decision I think a lot of people are very low on D toova after her last fight against jinu fry and I kind of am as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Cody picks Sam Hughes, citing Dudakova's poor performances, weight miss, and medical issues. He notes that Dudakova has low volume and overrated wrestling, while Hughes has faced better competition and is constantly in your face. Cody thinks Hughes can outwork Dudakova and win a decision. He also mentions that Hughes is always an underdog and fights to the last minute.

"I'll go Sam Hughes as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Daniel leans towards Dudakova, citing her reach advantage, youth, and takedown ability against Hughes' poor takedown defense. He acknowledges Hughes' higher pace but thinks Dudakova can seal rounds with takedowns and win a close decision. He is not fully confident due to Dudakova's greenness.

"I think I'm gonna lean towards uh dudakova to kind of win a a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Hughes is a live underdog if not at a huge physical disadvantage. She should put on a pace and grind out Dudakova, winning at least two rounds on the scorecards.

"I expect her to put on a bit of a pace here and really put dudakova through the grind and at least picking up two rounds here to win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Paul picks Sam Hughes, noting that Dudakova has not impressed and has had weight issues. He thinks Hughes can make the fight ugly and grind out a decision. Paul also mentions that Hughes is underrated and always gives 100% effort. He believes the line is too wide and that Hughes has a good chance to win.

"I think Sam Hughes can make this grimy get up in her face make it ugly make it close."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru picks Victoria Dudakova over Sam Hughes, calling Hughes 'awful' and past her prime. He notes Dudakova is a younger, improving Russian prospect with a win streak, including a win over Maria Silva on the contender series. He expects Dudakova to do enough to win.

"I'm gonna go Victoria dudova she's undefeated... Sam Hughes is just awful"
WIN vs Jinh Yu Frey
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viktoriia Dudakova 1 74 of 146 50% 109 of 183 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:18
Jinh Yu Frey 0 47 of 101 46% 65 of 121 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 1 30 of 53 56% 31 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:18
Jinh Yu Frey 0 16 of 46 34% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Viktoriia Dudakova 0 11 of 23 47% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jinh Yu Frey 0 11 of 22 50% 28 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:48
3 Viktoriia Dudakova 0 33 of 70 47% 41 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jinh Yu Frey 0 20 of 33 60% 21 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viktoriia Dudakova 74 of 146 50% 47 of 115 26 of 30 1 of 1 60 of 131 14 of 15 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 47 of 101 46% 31 of 80 8 of 13 8 of 8 37 of 89 3 of 4 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 30 of 53 56% 19 of 40 10 of 12 1 of 1 22 of 44 8 of 9 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 16 of 46 34% 9 of 37 5 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Viktoriia Dudakova 11 of 23 47% 6 of 16 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 11 of 22 50% 8 of 17 0 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 14 0 of 0 7 of 8
3 Viktoriia Dudakova 33 of 70 47% 22 of 59 11 of 11 0 of 0 30 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 20 of 33 60% 14 of 26 3 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo picks Victoria Dudakova but with low confidence, calling the odds a wild trap. He notes Jinh Yu Frey's experience and takedown defense but points out she is older, on a skid, and was knocked out a couple fights ago. He thinks Victoria's youth and pressure will be key, but if Frey's chin holds and she gets takedowns, Victoria might panic. He may bet the spread on Frey.

plus 3.5 on Jinh Yu Frey (spread) if odds are favorable
"Victoria is going to be the pick pretty low confidence in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady picks Victoria Dudakova to win by decision. He notes that Jinh Yu Frey is 38, small for the weight class, lacks volume and cardio, and has only two UFC wins. Dudakova is younger, impressed on the Contender Series, and should be able to take Frey down and control the fight. Brady expects a straightforward win for the heavy favorite.

decision
"give me Victoria due to coov to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Cody picks Dudakova but is hesitant, noting that she is green and has limited skills. He believes her wrestling will be enough to beat an aging Frey, but he acknowledges the line is too high. Cody expects a close fight.

"I'm going to pick Dudakova for now I think she does get the takedowns"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Daniel picks Victoria Dudakova to win, describing her as a prospect tester against Jinh Yu Frey, who is on her way out. He notes Dudakova's toughness and improving skills, and believes she can take Frey down and control the fight. He complains about the high line but thinks Dudakova should win comfortably.

Dudakova minus 525, Frey plus 400; mentions Dudakova's takedowns and toughness
"I think dudova wins just too bad the line sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Dudakova is younger, more explosive, and stronger than Frey. She has a strong wrestling and grappling game, with four of her seven wins by submission. Expects Dudakova to get takedowns, stay out of submissions, and dominate from top position, likely winning inside the distance in the second or third round.

inside the distance, round 2 or 3
"I'm expecting dudakova to obviously she's the younger fighter here she's going to be more explosive more powerful"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Paul picks Dudakova but is hesitant, noting that she is one-dimensional and relies on wrestling. He believes her size and strength will allow her to take Frey down and control her, but he worries about her lack of volume and ground-and-pound. Paul sees value on Frey but sticks with Dudakova.

"I do think Dudakova probably goes in there wrangles her to the ground spends time up on top"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru sees this as a clear mismatch set up by the UFC to give Dudakova a win. He notes Dudakova's athleticism, size, and reach advantages, and points out that Frey is 38 and coming off losses. He believes Dudakova is simply a better fighter and that the UFC wants her to win.

"Victoria dudova is a lot more athletic well maybe not more athletic but she's got a size Advantage she's got a reach advantage and she is just better as a fighter"
WIN vs Istela Nunes
TKO (arm injury) R1 0:34 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viktoriia Dudakova 3 of 11 27% 1 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Istela Nunes 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 3 of 11 27% 1 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Istela Nunes 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo is very high on Viktoriya Dudakova, calling her a well-rounded fighter who can strike with Nunes and wrestle if needed. He notes her clean and powerful striking, slick BJJ, and veteran composure. He thinks even at minus 250, she seems like a discount and could be a parlay piece. He compares her favorably to Ivana Petrovic, who was a bust, and believes Dudakova is the real deal.

parlay piece
"I'm all over Victoria in this fight I'm very high on her ... even at minus 250 I think that seems like a discount and I think Victoria could be a parlay piece"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady picks Viktoriya Dudakova, expecting her to survive Nunes' early power and then take over as Nunes' poor cardio becomes a factor. He notes Nunes is very good in the first round but fades badly. Dudakova is a grappler who will look for takedowns and submissions. He predicts a late submission in the second round, as Nunes goes 0-4 in the UFC.

Submission in the second round
"I'm going to say due to kova does find a sub late second round here I don't trust the cardio of Estella Nunez and I think Nunez goes 0-4 here in the UFC and takes her third submission loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Cody picks Dudakova, citing her cardio and wrestling advantages. He notes Nunes is 0-3 in the UFC due to poor cardio and takedown defense. He thinks Dudakova can survive early pressure and take over as Nunes fades. He suggests a live bet after the first round might be better value, but pre-fight he goes with Dudakova.

live bet after first round
"I think it will also take Judah kova because I think cardio and wrestling are like two things you need to win a fight and Nunez is 0-3 in the UFC because she lacks both things"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James does not offer a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he doesn't know much about the fighters and defers to his co-host Liam's analysis. He does not express a strong opinion.

"honestly I do not know much about the studio Cover Girl"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The host expects Dudakova to survive Nunes' early onslaught, clinch up, slow the fight down, and take over in the second and third rounds. He suggests a round three or decision prop, noting that Nunes fades after the first round. He also mentions a possible live bet on Dudakova after round one.

Dudakova wins in round 3 or by decision; live bet entry after round 1
"I'm going to be honing in on that round three slash decision prop that FanDuel likes drop for this matchup because I believe that dudukova can wear on her drag her into deep Waters possibly finish her late or at …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Paul picks Dudakova, citing her wrestling advantage and Nunes' poor defensive wrestling and cardio. He notes Nunes fades after 7.5 minutes and Dudakova can survive early shots and secure takedowns as Nunes tires. He mentions Dudakova's contender series win as a +250 underdog and thinks her path to victory is consistent wrestling. He considers the by decision prop at +175.

by decision at +175
"due to kova is going to be the pick I like going with the cf'd up... I feel like the one thing due to kova does well is what is how she's going to win this fight which is just …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru picks Viktoriya Dudakova over Istela Nunes, acknowledging Nunes's hunger but favoring Dudakova's youth, undefeated record, and well-roundedness. He notes Dudakova's Contender Series win despite an injury, and her opponent's subsequent success, while criticizing Nunes's losses to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes. He predicts a decision win for Dudakova.

"I'm gonna have to go with Victoria dudakova here Nunez isn't bad but I think dudukov is a bit more well-rounded"
Istela Nunes - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loma Lookboonmee 0 32 of 76 42% 111 of 170 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:34
Istela Nunes 0 36 of 62 58% 51 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loma Lookboonmee 0 15 of 47 31% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 22 of 37 59% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:09
2 Loma Lookboonmee 0 10 of 16 62% 23 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Istela Nunes 0 7 of 14 50% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
3 Loma Lookboonmee 0 7 of 13 53% 62 of 74 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:40
Istela Nunes 0 7 of 11 63% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loma Lookboonmee 32 of 76 42% 12 of 41 13 of 25 7 of 10 28 of 70 4 of 4 0 of 2
Istela Nunes 36 of 62 58% 7 of 26 11 of 13 18 of 23 33 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loma Lookboonmee 15 of 47 31% 3 of 23 6 of 15 6 of 9 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 22 of 37 59% 2 of 11 5 of 6 15 of 20 21 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Loma Lookboonmee 10 of 16 62% 6 of 9 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 7 of 14 50% 1 of 7 4 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Loma Lookboonmee 7 of 13 53% 3 of 9 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 2
Istela Nunes 7 of 11 63% 4 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lookboonmee (-590), Nunes (+390)

Round 1
One more matchup on the card will play out in the 115-pound category, and it comes between Thai striker Suphisara (9-3, 6-2 UFC)—who will be referred to as “Loma Lookboonmee,” or just Lookboonmee, going forward—and Brazilian Nunes (6-5, 1 NC; 0-4 UFC), a muay thai aficionado in her own right. Referee Chris Tognoni signals the start of the match, and the women answer his call by touching gloves first. Lookboonmee leads off with a kick that slaps under the armpit, and when Nunes returns fire, Lookboonmee is ready to chuck one more kick at her. Lookboonmee chips at the lead leg, staying able to bounce back and forth to slide in and out of range. Nunes kicks at her, and Lookboonmee jams her in the gut with a kick. Lookboonmee pushes off the chest with the ball of her foot, and continues to probe with kicks until she wraps one up around the neck. Nunes comes back firing, but the Thai is able to out-speed her 90 seconds into the match. While Nunes is keeping it honest and trying to mirror Lookboonmee’s activity, she looks for power as she sits down on a right hand that the Thai just dodges. Lookboonmee pushes off, and her finger may or may not have scraped the eye. The replay called by Tognoni is not clear, so they get back to fighting. They proceed to trade kicks one after the other, strike totals fairly close with Lookboonmee likely having the edge. She scores kicks from both legs, and her strikes are taking Nunes’ fists almost entirely out of the equation. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right hand, and they crash together in an exchange. Nunes kicks low and Lookboonmee belts the body a few times with her shin to audible effective. A third is even lower, and she puts out a one-two to further stick it to her opponent. Lookboonmee catches a kick and looks for a takedown, and Nunes easily pushes her over and climbs into top position. The Thai looks for a sweep when stuck on her back, as Nunes is more interested in controlling for the moment. Lookboonmee is warning for striking the back of the head, and she pushes the Brazilian off of her. Judges might have their hands full with that round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee

Round 2
The strawweights clap hands to re-engage, and they stand right in kickboxing range and let their hands and feet go. Lookboonmee strikes first, last and heavier, but Nunes gets off her own shots. The second and third of a trio of front kicks from Nunes push Lookboonmee away each time Lookboonmee advances. The Thai hammers a low kick and ducks down when Nunes swings at her, standing up as the top of her head bangs into Nunes’ chin with no warning or protest. Nunes tries to wrap her opponent up and leverage her down, and the result is a prolonged clinch. Nunes grabs the cage wall several times, and Tognoni reaches around repeatedly to slap Nunes’ hand. If you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin. The successful Dundasso allows Nunes to suddenly surprise her adversary by dropping for a heel hook. Lookboonmee busts her in the chops with one right hand to get out of the submission, and Nunes adjusts and shifts the limb to the other side for an inverted heel hook setup. Lookboonmee stays calm as a cucumber while in this ankle lock-type position, as Nunes does not have the right angle or leverage to complete it. Nunes squeezes hard on the foot, and Lookboonmee stacks her up and places herself in the lion’s mouth as Nunes sits up to hunt for a kneebar. Nunes chains the kneebar to a heel hook, and the Thai sits up and stands. Nunes keeps a grip on the ankle, and Lookboonmee punches her a few times before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee

Round 3
The ladies bump fists to get going, and they get back to action with striking. It does not take Nunes long to try to take the fight down, and eventually in search of what would be her first career submission. The Thai looks to counter Nunes, and she hits a trip to put Nunes on her back. The action largely stalls out when the two women go horizontal, as it is not where they normally compete. Nunes keeps tightly wrapped around Lookboonmee’s shoulder, and Tognoni asks for more activity. When inaction persists, Tognoni stands them up. They proceed to rush at one another and get up close with knees until Lookboonmee completes a throw to dump the Brazilian to her back again. Lookboonmee steps over to hold on from half guard and flatten Nunes on her side. Nunes hooks her toes in the fence to try to improve her position, and Tognoni slaps her toes. Lookboonmee, meanwhile, jams down a number of left hands and elbows to stay busier than the last time she was on top. With 10 seconds to spare, Nunes explodes to her feet, and she hunts for a takedown that is not completed before the conclusion of the match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)

The Official Result
Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Angelo highlights Loma's evolution from a pure striker to a mixed martial artist with improved takedowns and effective grappling. He notes that Loma has out-wrestled opponents like Sam Hughes and has nasty striking and great speed. He believes Loma will out-grapple and out-strike Istela Nunes, who is on a four-fight losing streak and has poor grappling. Angelo calls Loma 'as close to a short thing as you're going to get' in women's MMA.

"I think Loma absolutely runs here she's minus 400 so 4 to 1 favorite I mean it is what it is I think she's as close to a short thing as you're going to get especially in women's MMA."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Big Brady is confident in Loma Lookboonmee, citing Istela Nunes's long layoff, four-fight losing streak, and questionable ground game. He notes Nunes has solid striking early but fades, and her takedown defense is poor. He expects Lookboonmee to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Nunes in the second or third round.

second round submission
"I'm going to go lomma luk Bui to win this fight I think she gets a second round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Lookboonmee is coming off a long layoff but her Muay Thai style should wear down Nunes' gas tank issues. She is expected to finish the fight in the second or third round. The pick is based on stylistic advantage and Nunes' known cardio problems.

finishes in round 2 or 3
"I expect her Muay Thai style to wear down the gas tank issues of Nunes ultimately leading to luk buoni finishing this fight in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The Guru is high on Loma Lookboonmee, praising her technique on the feet and Muay Thai skills. He believes she has improved her takedown defense during her hiatus and will dominate Istela Nunes in the clinch and at range. He dismisses Nunes as having a poor record and lacking the skills to compete.

"Luma look boom's actually pretty good. She's got talent. She's great at striking and she's going to beat up on Estella Nunes in the clinch and at range on the feet as well with her superior Muay Thai skills."
TKO (arm injury) R1 0:34 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viktoriia Dudakova 3 of 11 27% 1 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Istela Nunes 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 3 of 11 27% 1 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Istela Nunes 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo is very high on Viktoriya Dudakova, calling her a well-rounded fighter who can strike with Nunes and wrestle if needed. He notes her clean and powerful striking, slick BJJ, and veteran composure. He thinks even at minus 250, she seems like a discount and could be a parlay piece. He compares her favorably to Ivana Petrovic, who was a bust, and believes Dudakova is the real deal.

parlay piece
"I'm all over Victoria in this fight I'm very high on her ... even at minus 250 I think that seems like a discount and I think Victoria could be a parlay piece"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady picks Viktoriya Dudakova, expecting her to survive Nunes' early power and then take over as Nunes' poor cardio becomes a factor. He notes Nunes is very good in the first round but fades badly. Dudakova is a grappler who will look for takedowns and submissions. He predicts a late submission in the second round, as Nunes goes 0-4 in the UFC.

Submission in the second round
"I'm going to say due to kova does find a sub late second round here I don't trust the cardio of Estella Nunez and I think Nunez goes 0-4 here in the UFC and takes her third submission loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Cody picks Dudakova, citing her cardio and wrestling advantages. He notes Nunes is 0-3 in the UFC due to poor cardio and takedown defense. He thinks Dudakova can survive early pressure and take over as Nunes fades. He suggests a live bet after the first round might be better value, but pre-fight he goes with Dudakova.

live bet after first round
"I think it will also take Judah kova because I think cardio and wrestling are like two things you need to win a fight and Nunez is 0-3 in the UFC because she lacks both things"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James does not offer a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he doesn't know much about the fighters and defers to his co-host Liam's analysis. He does not express a strong opinion.

"honestly I do not know much about the studio Cover Girl"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The host expects Dudakova to survive Nunes' early onslaught, clinch up, slow the fight down, and take over in the second and third rounds. He suggests a round three or decision prop, noting that Nunes fades after the first round. He also mentions a possible live bet on Dudakova after round one.

Dudakova wins in round 3 or by decision; live bet entry after round 1
"I'm going to be honing in on that round three slash decision prop that FanDuel likes drop for this matchup because I believe that dudukova can wear on her drag her into deep Waters possibly finish her late or at …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Paul picks Dudakova, citing her wrestling advantage and Nunes' poor defensive wrestling and cardio. He notes Nunes fades after 7.5 minutes and Dudakova can survive early shots and secure takedowns as Nunes tires. He mentions Dudakova's contender series win as a +250 underdog and thinks her path to victory is consistent wrestling. He considers the by decision prop at +175.

by decision at +175
"due to kova is going to be the pick I like going with the cf'd up... I feel like the one thing due to kova does well is what is how she's going to win this fight which is just …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru picks Viktoriya Dudakova over Istela Nunes, acknowledging Nunes's hunger but favoring Dudakova's youth, undefeated record, and well-roundedness. He notes Dudakova's Contender Series win despite an injury, and her opponent's subsequent success, while criticizing Nunes's losses to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes. He predicts a decision win for Dudakova.

"I'm gonna have to go with Victoria dudakova here Nunez isn't bad but I think dudukov is a bit more well-rounded"
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 2 67 of 154 43% 103 of 200 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:50
Istela Nunes 1 36 of 60 60% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 1 24 of 40 60% 25 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Yazmin Jauregui 2 40 of 68 58% 76 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Istela Nunes 0 12 of 20 60% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 67 of 154 43% 54 of 135 6 of 11 7 of 8 38 of 109 7 of 12 22 of 33
Istela Nunes 36 of 60 60% 20 of 41 12 of 14 4 of 5 28 of 50 8 of 8 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 27 of 86 31% 18 of 72 4 of 8 5 of 6 25 of 82 2 of 4 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 24 of 40 60% 13 of 29 7 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 40 of 68 58% 36 of 63 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 27 5 of 8 22 of 33
Istela Nunes 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 5 of 7 0 of 1 8 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo picks Yazmin Jauregui but is hesitant, noting that Istela Nunes is a legitimate professional kickboxer with impressive speed and versatility. He believes if Nunes has full three-round cardio, she should be the better overall striker. However, he leans on Jauregui because Nunes gassed in her last fight against Sam Hughes. He calls the odds 'absolute insanity' and expects a mostly striking matchup.

Surprised by the odds (Jauregui almost 4-to-1 favorite)
"I'm gonna pick Yasmin but the only reason I'm picking Yasmin is because the seller gassed in that fight against Sam Hughes"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady leans towards Jauregui due to her youth (23 years old) and cardio advantage, expecting Nunes to slow down in the later rounds. He notes that Jauregui is a striker and unlikely to exploit Nunes' takedown defense weakness. He predicts a competitive fight early but Jauregui taking over in the second and third rounds to win a decision.

Jauregui wins by decision
"I think it's going to be competitive early on... but as the fight goes on I do think she's going to start to slow... I do see heregie taking over second third round and winning the decision there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui but is tempted by Nunes as a dog. He notes Nunes' power and counter-striking, but thinks her cardio will fade. He suggests live betting Nunes after round 1.

live bet on Nunes after round 1
"I will take Yasmine but what I can offer up is live bet this thing because the Stella Nunes is a problem in the first round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Connor picks Yazmin Jauregui, agreeing that Nunes fades when pressured and that Jauregui's technical punching and pocket dedication will win out over multiple rounds. He notes that Nunes has a history of crumbling once her confidence is dented.

"How to gree is the favorite here as expected open to minus 240 dropped to minus 350 currently minus 330."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Daniel Levi picks Jauregui, citing her high output, takedown defense, and heart. He notes Nunes' pacing issues and believes Jauregui's youth and pressure will carry her. He is not betting at the price but is confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna go with the favorite Yasmine uh yaragui to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui to win by third-round TKO. He thinks Nunes will start strong but fade due to poor cardio, allowing Jauregui to take over and finish. He is wary of the minus 300 chalk but believes Jauregui is a decent enough prospect to survive early and finish late. He notes that Nunes is likely fighting for her UFC spot.

Jauregui round 3 TKO
"I'm gonna go yadagui round three TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul picks Jauregui but is puzzled by the price. He notes her potential and Nunes' cardio issues. He thinks Jauregui can win by decision or late finish if she mixes in takedowns.

Jauregui by decision
"I'm gonna be picking wariki I'm just uh kind of puzzled about how I how I approach this matchup"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui because she lived up to her hype in the UFC, showing rare talent in the women's division. He notes Istela Nunes has lost her last two fights and is under pressure at 30 years old. He predicts Jauregui will win by decision, citing her youth (23) and ability to overcome octagon jitters.

Jauregui by decision
"I'm gonna be going with Yasmine Jared because she had hype coming into the UFC but she actually lived up to that hype once she got into the UFC"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Zane picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her consistent boxing, tight defense, and ability to exit exchanges with a left hook. He notes that Nunes is a sharp striker early but fades when pressured, and Jauregui's counter punching will be a problem for Nunes.

"I gotta take how to give her basically just for like the depth and consistency of her uh of her boxing."
LOSS vs Sam Hughes
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 89 of 228 39% 90 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 76 of 182 41% 151 of 257 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 40 of 92 43% 40 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 15 of 48 31% 15 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sam Hughes 0 37 of 98 37% 37 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 31 of 76 40% 60 of 105 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:35
3 Sam Hughes 0 12 of 38 31% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 30 of 58 51% 76 of 104 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 89 of 228 39% 52 of 173 26 of 44 11 of 11 83 of 220 5 of 6 1 of 2
Istela Nunes 76 of 182 41% 67 of 167 9 of 15 0 of 0 59 of 156 4 of 7 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 40 of 92 43% 20 of 65 14 of 21 6 of 6 39 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 15 of 48 31% 14 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sam Hughes 37 of 98 37% 26 of 78 9 of 18 2 of 2 35 of 95 2 of 3 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 31 of 76 40% 25 of 67 6 of 9 0 of 0 29 of 73 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Sam Hughes 12 of 38 31% 6 of 30 3 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 34 2 of 2 1 of 2
Istela Nunes 30 of 58 51% 28 of 53 2 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 35 2 of 4 13 of 19
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Angelo picks Istela Nunes, expecting a three-round decision win. He notes that Nunes has cleaner striking with speed and power, while Sam Hughes is hittable and has not taken anyone down in the UFC. He references Nunes's last fight where she won striking exchanges but lost due to takedowns, but believes Hughes cannot take her down.

"i do think estella has the cleaner striker and will win the striking exchanges i don't see hughes being able to take her down which means this ends up being a three-round decision win for estella nunez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Big Brady picks Istela Nunes to win by decision. He notes Nunes has good striking and improved takedown defense, while Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC with poor striking defense (49%) and no takedowns landed. He expects the fight to stay standing, where Nunes will outclass Hughes. He calls it a winnable fight for Nunes but says he doesn't overly want anything to do with it.

win by decision
"i got to go nunez here i'm going to take nunes to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Cody picks Nunes, noting her striking advantage and Hughes' lack of finishing ability. He thinks Nunes can win on the feet and avoid takedowns. He calls it a good spot for Nunes.

"i do think that she should be the established favorite she is that is who i'm going to be taking"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Daniel Levi leans Istela Nunes based on aggression and forward pressure, noting Hughes is hesitant and seems to lack confidence. He acknowledges Nunes's win over Karnilosi may be overrated because Karnilosi blocks punches with her face, but believes Nunes's willingness to engage will sway judges. He is not willing to lay -225 but picks Nunes to win.

Not betting at -225; mentions Nunes's aggression and Hughes's hesitancy
"I'll take a stella nunes no bet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Paul picks Nunes, citing her striking and physicality. He notes Hughes' poor performances and thinks Nunes can piece her up. He acknowledges cardio concerns but believes Nunes can win the first two rounds.

"i think nunez is going to piece her up"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Istela Nunes, citing her strong striking performance against Ariane Carnelossi, who he notes was on steroids. He believes Nunes has a reach advantage and will outclass Sam Hughes on the feet, winning a 30-27 unanimous decision.

unanimous decision 30-27
"gotta go the stella nunes here she looked really good against ariana carlos in her debut"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:57 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane Carnelossi 0 62 of 119 52% 98 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 36 of 108 33% 76 of 158 5 of 7 71% 1 0 7:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane Carnelossi 0 31 of 63 49% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 18 of 52 34% 34 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
2 Ariane Carnelossi 0 18 of 29 62% 46 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 9 of 30 30% 27 of 55 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:33
3 Ariane Carnelossi 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 9 of 26 34% 15 of 33 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane Carnelossi 62 of 119 52% 37 of 88 16 of 22 9 of 9 54 of 109 8 of 10 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 36 of 108 33% 33 of 103 2 of 4 1 of 1 33 of 100 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane Carnelossi 31 of 63 49% 17 of 47 10 of 12 4 of 4 27 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 18 of 52 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 1 of 1 17 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Ariane Carnelossi 18 of 29 62% 12 of 21 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 23 4 of 6 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 9 of 30 30% 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 25 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Ariane Carnelossi 13 of 27 48% 8 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 3 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Istela Nunes vs. Ariane Carnelossi

Round 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes

Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi

Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.

The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.

plus 3.5 points, win inside distance/decision no action
"I like Nunes in this fight as an underdog I don't like her enough to bet on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.

by decision
"i'm actually gonna take a shot on the dog in terms of a pick there's just too many question marks for me to bet it though i'm going to pick estela nunes to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.

"i would say that she keeps that momentum going"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.

"i gotta go with carnalosi she's got that ufc experience under her belt"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.

Carnelossi by decision +165
"i like the carnilosi decision i do think that nunes will be able to eat some shots here and we'll see this go for 15 minutes so i like carne lucy by decision at plus 165."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.

ground and pound tko in the second round
"i'm picking man arms mcgee for the win here arianny carlos will get it done"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo is very high on Viktoriya Dudakova, calling her a well-rounded fighter who can strike with Nunes and wrestle if needed. He notes her clean and powerful striking, slick BJJ, and veteran composure. He thinks even at minus 250, she seems like a discount and could be a parlay piece. He compares her favorably to Ivana Petrovic, who was a bust, and believes Dudakova is the real deal.

parlay piece
"I'm all over Victoria in this fight I'm very high on her ... even at minus 250 I think that seems like a discount and I think Victoria could be a parlay piece"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady picks Viktoriya Dudakova, expecting her to survive Nunes' early power and then take over as Nunes' poor cardio becomes a factor. He notes Nunes is very good in the first round but fades badly. Dudakova is a grappler who will look for takedowns and submissions. He predicts a late submission in the second round, as Nunes goes 0-4 in the UFC.

Submission in the second round
"I'm going to say due to kova does find a sub late second round here I don't trust the cardio of Estella Nunez and I think Nunez goes 0-4 here in the UFC and takes her third submission loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Cody picks Dudakova, citing her cardio and wrestling advantages. He notes Nunes is 0-3 in the UFC due to poor cardio and takedown defense. He thinks Dudakova can survive early pressure and take over as Nunes fades. He suggests a live bet after the first round might be better value, but pre-fight he goes with Dudakova.

live bet after first round
"I think it will also take Judah kova because I think cardio and wrestling are like two things you need to win a fight and Nunez is 0-3 in the UFC because she lacks both things"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

James does not offer a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he doesn't know much about the fighters and defers to his co-host Liam's analysis. He does not express a strong opinion.

"honestly I do not know much about the studio Cover Girl"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The host expects Dudakova to survive Nunes' early onslaught, clinch up, slow the fight down, and take over in the second and third rounds. He suggests a round three or decision prop, noting that Nunes fades after the first round. He also mentions a possible live bet on Dudakova after round one.

Dudakova wins in round 3 or by decision; live bet entry after round 1
"I'm going to be honing in on that round three slash decision prop that FanDuel likes drop for this matchup because I believe that dudukova can wear on her drag her into deep Waters possibly finish her late or at least pick up a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Paul picks Dudakova, citing her wrestling advantage and Nunes' poor defensive wrestling and cardio. He notes Nunes fades after 7.5 minutes and Dudakova can survive early shots and secure takedowns as Nunes tires. He mentions Dudakova's contender series win as a +250 underdog and thinks her path to victory is consistent wrestling. He considers the by decision prop at +175.

by decision at +175
"due to kova is going to be the pick I like going with the cf'd up... I feel like the one thing due to kova does well is what is how she's going to win this fight which is just you know consistently stick to the wrestling game plan and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru picks Viktoriya Dudakova over Istela Nunes, acknowledging Nunes's hunger but favoring Dudakova's youth, undefeated record, and well-roundedness. He notes Dudakova's Contender Series win despite an injury, and her opponent's subsequent success, while criticizing Nunes's losses to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes. He predicts a decision win for Dudakova.

"I'm gonna have to go with Victoria dudakova here Nunez isn't bad but I think dudukov is a bit more well-rounded"