UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 5' 8"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Melsik Baghdasaryan
5.04 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
3.14 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tucker Lutz
3.74 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.25 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.99 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Moneyline
FanDuel -148
KO/TKO
BetRivers +265
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
FanDuel +220
Tucker Lutz
Moneyline
BetWay +140
KO/TKO
FanDuel +700
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
BetRivers +330
Melsik Baghdasaryan - Fight History
LOSS vs Jean Silva
KO R1 4:15 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Silva 1 18 of 27 66% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 7 of 25 28% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Silva 1 18 of 27 66% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 7 of 25 28% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Silva 18 of 27 66% 11 of 19 7 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 7
Melsik Baghdasaryan 7 of 25 28% 5 of 20 0 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Silva 18 of 27 66% 11 of 19 7 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 7
Melsik Baghdasaryan 7 of 25 28% 5 of 20 0 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Jean Silva

Round 1
The action continues with a potential featherweight banger as Silva (14-2, 3-0 UFC) looks to push his win streak to 12 at the expense of Baghdasaryan (8-2, 3-1 UFC). Both men are capable and willing to author a dramatic knockout, and referee Kevin MacDonald needs to mind his P’s and Q’s for as long as it lasts. There is a calm glove touch to get started, and Baghdasaryan bounces back and forth to engage. Silva lets rip a body kick, and he sways back to avoid one aimed at his upper chest. The two present in alternate stances, out of range of one another. Baghdasaryan whiffs on a big kick, and Silva offers him a glove touch with a big grin. Silva fires off a booming kick that is blocked in the nick of time, and he is all smiles thus far. Silva goes high again with a kick, and he wraps one around the waist only to get popped with a right hook. A one-two from Baghdasaryan misses the mark, and Silva throws one back and follows it with a body kick. Silva crashes forward, and nothing results from the clash. Silva intercepts his opponent with a left hook and spins with a back kick to the body, prompting Baghdasaryan to fire a few big punches and a head kick at him. Silva lets the shin skim his forehead so he can ducks down and jab to the body, and he steps in with an elbow. Silva walks into a right hand, and he slaps Baghdasaryan in the face. They high-five and motion for the crowd to get interested, and
Silva opens up with a huge one-two. The Brazilian knocks Baghdasaryan clean off his feet, and he lords over his opponent looking to MacDonald to intervene. When MacDonald does not step in, a confused Baghdasaryan looks around on his back and shells up. One final assault from Silva is all that is required—who did not even want to cause any further harm—as he lays into the doomed Baghdasaryan with punches and 12-6 elbows to the body.
This is enough for MacDonald to step in, and the smile from “Lord” stretches from ear to ear on not only him but his whole Fighting Nerds team. That makes it 12 in a row for the Brazilian, including four wins in the UFC all by stoppage.

The Official Result
Jean Silva def. Melsik Baghdasaryan R1 4:15 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Angelo picks Jean Silva confidently but notes the line may be inflated due to Silva's recent success and Baghdasaryan's layoff. He acknowledges Baghdasaryan is a real striker with a long kickboxing background, not a sloppy brawler like Drew Dober. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and considers the over 2.5 rounds prop.

Considers over 2.5 rounds prop
"Jean Silva is going to be the pick, a pretty confident pick, but Melik isn't just some random sloppy MMA striker... I actually think this probably goes to a decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Big Brady picks Jean Silva despite the wide line (-560), noting that Melsik Baghdasaryan has major cardio and ground game liabilities. He thinks Baghdasaryan is a high-level kickboxer for the first seven minutes but fades, and his submission defense is poor. He expects Silva to pressure, potentially take him down, and finish him in the second round, either by knockout or submission. He notes that Baghdasaryan is coming off a torn labrum and a year and a half off.

by second round knockout
"I think Jean Silva finishes melik bagdasarian in the second round could be knockout could be submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Connor picks Silva, agreeing that Baghdasaryan is a bad style matchup for Silva. He notes that Baghdasaryan has a lot of blank space and discomfort in the pocket, which Silva can exploit. Connor compares Silva's ability to Yoel Romero, where he can just decide to end the fight with one punch.

"I think bug disarian is a bad style matchup for silva"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

The host thinks the line is too wide but still picks Silva. He expects Silva's activity and power to overcome Baghdasaryan, who may be slow and rusty after a 1.5-year layoff and torn labrum. He predicts Silva wins on the scorecards and suggests the over 1.5 rounds is interesting.

over 1.5 rounds
"I expect his activity and his power to touch up basaran who might be a little bit slow and suffering from ring rust... look for silver to touch him up win this fight on the scorecards but the over one …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jean Silva

The Guru picks Silva by TKO, but warns that Baghdasaryan is tricky and may be winning before the finish. He predicts Baghdasaryan edges the first round, then Silva catches him in the second with his bruiser style, using elbows and knees in the pocket. He acknowledges Baghdasaryan's technical skill but gives Silva the X-factor.

late second round TKO
"I think he's going to win by TKO melik has the style to be very tricky for Jean Silva though"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Zane picks Silva because he believes Silva's timing and accuracy are exceptional, comparing him to prime Anderson Silva. He notes that Baghdasaryan is uncomfortable in the pocket and relies on range striking, which Silva can exploit by luring him into mistakes. Zane expects Silva to land a devastating knockout, similar to his win over Drew Dober.

"john silva is just gonna crush him"
WIN vs Tucker Lutz
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 36 of 109 33% 41 of 115 3 of 9 33% 0 0 6:19
Tucker Lutz 0 64 of 108 59% 74 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:56
Tucker Lutz 0 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 21 of 64 32% 22 of 65 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 49 57% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 3 of 18 16% 6 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:48
Tucker Lutz 0 25 of 40 62% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melsik Baghdasaryan 36 of 109 33% 14 of 71 16 of 28 6 of 10 34 of 105 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 64 of 108 59% 32 of 66 30 of 40 2 of 2 50 of 88 11 of 16 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 12 of 27 44% 4 of 18 5 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 11 of 19 57% 4 of 9 6 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 21 of 64 32% 10 of 40 8 of 19 3 of 5 20 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 28 of 49 57% 16 of 34 11 of 14 1 of 1 26 of 46 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 3 of 18 16% 0 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 15 1 of 3 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 25 of 40 62% 12 of 23 13 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 25 10 of 14 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Tucker Lutz
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baghdasaryan (-165), Lutz (+140)

Round 1
The prelims come to a close with the first combatant of the night sporting a winning record inside the Octagon. Baghdasaryan (7-2, 2-1 UFC) did get choked out back in February, so he hopes to get back in the win column at the expense of the skidding Lutz (12-3, 1-2 UFC). In this featherweight contest of “The Gun” vs. “Top Gun,” respectively, expect a potential firefight. Referee Jacob Montalvo dons his bulletproof armor, and the fighters touch ‘em up before pulling the trigger. Baghdasaryan reaches out with a body kick to introduce himself, and he kicks the lead leg to follow. Lutz responds with two leg kicks, and he swats away a reverse crescent kick and has his guard up to block a subsequent high kick. Baghdasaryan’s shin bounces right off Lutz’ chin, and Lutz tanks it and kicks Baghdasaryan in the ribs twice. They both paw at one another with straight right hands, and Lutz is ripping kicks to the body while Baghdasaryan is aiming them high. Lutz strings three punches together that clatter off the forehead, and he chambers and looses another kick to the side. Baghdasaryan pays him back with one, leading Lutz to offer up a takedown attempt. “Top Gun” is able to complete the takedown he seeks, sucking Baghdasaryan’s legs out beneath him and hooking his own legs around Baghdasaryan’s. This keeps Baghdasaryan on his seat without a way to get up, and try as he might, Baghdasaryan cannot stand. Lutz is primarily focused on position over any other offense, as Baghdasaryan is leaned with his back to the cage. Baghdasaryan slowly scoots his leg free from the triangle that kept him stuck, and he stands up. Lutz is quick to drag him right back down, and he ignores an elbow that bounces off the side of the head. Baghdasaryan explodes to his knees, but Lutz yanks him back out again. Baghdasaryan returns to his feet while Lutz is clinging to him, and Lutz looks to trip him out from behind. Lutz lifts Baghdasaryan up, and Baghdasaryan grabs the fence a few times to prevent him from getting grounded. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lutz
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Lutz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lutz

Round 2
The fighters either touch gloves or stick out alternating jabs at the same time to start off the round, and they get going with kicks one after the other. Lutz slaps a kick to the upper thigh, and he springs out of the way from a jab to the body from his opponent. Baghdasaryan splits the lowered guard with a front kick on the belly, and he drills Lutz in the face with a reverse crescent kick. In an exchange, Baghdasaryan connects with a few punches including a stiff uppercut, hurting Lutz and sending him backpedaling. This puts the Baghdasaryan in the driver’s seat, who leaps in the air and kicks at Lutz like Josh Thomson against Nate Diaz. Lutz defends from the blow and the subsequent strikes enough to gather his wits, and he starts to fire back with bad intentions. Lutz slams his shin to the belly a few times, and he eats two jabs that snap his head back. Baghdasaryan wings a left hand that bounces off the cup, and it pounds square into Lutz’ cup. Lutz doubles over and clutches his groin, and Baghdasaryan does not pause as he kicks Lutz upside the head before Montalvo can reach him. Lutz takes the time he needs to recover, and he is ready to re-engage in a brawl. Catching Baghdasaryan with a right hand and a knee, Lutz gets backed away with a front kick. Lutz spams leg kicks, and he is driven back with a solid one-two. Lutz throws a naked body kick, and Baghdasaryan counters him and shuts down a takedown attempt from the surging Lutz. Baghdasaryan lands one body kick, and Lutz reaches him with two. Both men trade hands, and the Glendale Fighting Club fighter’s head movement is minimal as he gets tagged by Lutz. Baghdasaryan has the power to surprise Lutz, which defends him from Lutz surges. Baghdasaryan rifles off a piston-like jab that Lutz takes right on the nose to knock his head back, forcing Lutz into takedown mode. Lutz grabs hold of his foe and deposits Baghdasaryan to the floor with 30 seconds left in the round. Lutz hangs on tight, riding out the remainder of the round in this position without doing anything else with it but catching his breath.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan

Round 3
The featherweights touch ‘em up to start off the last round, and Lutz races forward throwing leather. Baghdasaryan shoves him back, and two of his fingers jab deep into Lutz’ eye socket. Lutz yelps in pain as he backs away, and Montalvo calls time. Lutz states the he is good to go within a minute, answering the doctor that he can see just fine. Montalvo warns Baghdasaryan sternly for fouls, and the two restart after 75 seconds away. Lutz springs right into action, and Baghdasaryan does just the same, knocking Lutz back with a few punches. Lutz responds with a loud body kick, and he tags Baghdasaryan with a left hand. Baghdasaryan responds with an axe kick that misses the mark by a foot, and Lutz steps in with a right hand that lands on the chin. Baghdasaryan strings three punches together to rock Lutz, and Lutz drops to his knees to hunt for a takedown. Lutz clasps his hands and lowers Baghdasaryan to his knee, and Baghdasaryan stays busy with elbows to the side. Lutz sells out for a single, and he trips Baghdasaryan down and takes his back even as Baghdasaryan grabs the fence repeatedly. Montalvo even slaps Baghdasaryan’s hands out of the fence, and Lutz snakes his right arm around the chest as he gets one hook in. Baghdasaryan wriggles and through sheer force of will, he works out of the position and stands up. In a close clinch, Baghdasaryan slams his knees on the midsection, and Lutz winces in pain – possibly because one glanced off his cup during the exchange. Baghdasaryan keeps spamming knees even when he is turned around against the wire, and Lutz searches for a single-leg takedown. Baghdasaryan elbows Lutz on the side of the head and stifles Lutz from getting it, and he delivers a few more knees to the body for good measure. With 25 seconds to spare, Baghdasaryan pushes off and spins with a back kick to the body. Baghdasaryan races after his opponent, belting Lutz in the face with a left hand. The two tie back up, with Baghdasaryan initiating the clinch so that he can open up with knees and elbows up close. Lutz breaks off and evades a spin kick to his midsection, and Baghdasaryan steps in with a knee. Lutz lands a right hand over the top, and the horn sounds to end this 15-minute engagement.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)

The Official Result
Melsik Baghdasaryan def. Tucker Lutz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Tucker Lutz as the underdog, citing a wider wrestling and grappling skill gap than the striking gap. He believes Tucker can keep a tight guard, come forward, and look to wrestle, needing a perfect 15-minute fight to avoid getting knocked out. He notes that Melsik is dangerous late, having gotten a third-round KO after giving up takedowns, so Tucker must be cautious. Angelo is surprised Melsik is a 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight could be a boring wrestling match.

"the pick's gonna be Tucker here as the underdog right off the rip but he's gonna need to fight a perfect fight for 15 minutes and avoid getting knocked out"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as a slight underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Baghdasaryan is the better striker with power, but Lutz has solid wrestling and cardio. He expects Lutz to get takedowns and control time, while Baghdasaryan may have bigger moments on the feet. He thinks it goes to a close decision and sides with the dog, though he missed the better plus money earlier.

"give me Tucker Lutz to slightly Edge it out although I'm a big fan of Mel sakir I think stylistically uh Striker versus wrestler I mean this one could be close to give me Tucker Lutz for the upset in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody reluctantly picks Lutz as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage if he uses it. He notes Baghdasaryan is a dangerous striker but has poor takedown defense, as seen in the Culibao fight. He acknowledges Lutz has looked bad recently, getting chin-checked by Pineda, but thinks the plus money is worth a shot. He has zero confidence but sees an angle.

"probably a bad play I have zero confidence in Tucker Lutz but I feel like there's an angle there that he can now grapple and use some wrestling so again zero confidence out of me but I gotta take some …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

James is leaning towards Tucker Lutz as an underdog. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has grappling deficiencies and was submitted quickly in his last fight. He questions whether Lutz has the offensive wrestling and cardio to exploit those weaknesses, but thinks the line may offer value on the dog side. He plans to watch tape to confirm.

"I honestly would be looking at a taco side a lot more than laying -220 over melson baghdasarian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The host expects a pissed-off Baghdasaryan to take out his aggression on Lutz, using his combinations and power to stifle Lutz. He notes Lutz has broken before and thinks Baghdasaryan can win by decision, though he's not certain about a finish.

"give me talk to saurian feeling pretty good about him as well and I think he wins this fight low confidence I'm going to say by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Paul leans toward Baghdasaryan, citing his striking advantage and Lutz's poor striking defense. He notes the market moved from -200 to -160, making it less valuable. He thinks Baghdasaryan can exploit Lutz's defensive flaws and land big shots. He is not convinced in Lutz's wrestling ability and sees this as a stay-away fight at current odds.

"I'll lean towards Mel sick because I'm just not convinced in Tucker Lutz's wrestling ability"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The MMA Guru picks Melsik Baghdasaryan over Tucker Lutz, citing Baghdasaryan's superior striking skill and fluidity compared to Lutz's awkward, rigid style. He notes Lutz has lost two in a row and questions his ability to outgrapple Baghdasaryan, who hasn't been exposed on the ground aside from a submission loss to Joshua Culibao after winning the fight. He trusts Baghdasaryan's prior performances, including a 3-0 streak and a Contender Series win, and predicts a decision victory.

"I've got to go with meltic bagdasarian here over tuckalatz he just seems the more talented of the two of them"
LOSS vs Josh Culibao
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:02 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Culibao 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 26 of 44 59% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Culibao 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Culibao 0 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Culibao 16 of 45 35% 3 of 24 3 of 8 10 of 13 15 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Melsik Baghdasaryan 26 of 44 59% 6 of 19 8 of 10 12 of 15 24 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Culibao 11 of 31 35% 1 of 15 1 of 5 9 of 11 11 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Melsik Baghdasaryan 18 of 30 60% 3 of 12 5 of 7 10 of 11 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Culibao 5 of 14 35% 2 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Melsik Baghdasaryan 8 of 14 57% 3 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Joshua Culibao
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Culibao (-120), Baghdasaryan (+100)

Round 1
Featherweights take center stage next in a matchup where neither man has ever landed a submission, so fists and feet are sure to fly. Repping his home country, Culibao (10-1-1, 2-1-1 UFC) collides with one of Glendale Fighting Club’s few remaining members in a major organization, Baghdasaryan (7-1, 2-0 UFC). Chins are sure to be tested early and often, so referee Peter Hickmott has strapped on his hard hat and is ready for the action. Despite the bad blood that developed on fight week, fists are bumped before they are swung. Baghdasaryan leads off with a leg kick, and he fires off a second in rapid succession. Culibao loops a head kick back in response, and he comes up short. Baghdasaryan pokes at the calf with his shin again, and Culibao winds up to make him pay with two of his own. The two trade low kicks one after the other, and Culibao changes stances after taking a particularly solid one. Culibao goes up high with a kick that is blocked, and he gets spun around from a chopping kick from “The Gun.” Culibao tries to close in and swipe out with a left hook, but Baghdasaryan is out of the way before it reaches him. Baghdasaryan digs a kick right to the liver, and Culibao winds up with one up high to respond but is just short. Baghdasaryan kicks the body again, and he settles down with a right hand when recoiling. Baghdasaryan gest off a low kick before Culibao can catch him back, and Culibao peppers him with three more as Baghdasaryan nods and smiles at him. The two get fired up and launch big left hooks, and Culibao begins to start checking the kick. Baghdasaryan goes up top with a kick and pulls back before Culibao can reach him in a reply. The two are trapped in a form of a mirror match, where one lands and the other tries to give the same blow back almost immediately. Baghdasaryan connects with a clean right hand to draw a stream of blood out of the nose, and he checks an oncoming low kick to follow. Baghdasaryan times a low kick to launch a left hand over the top, and Culibao just barely rolls it. Baghdasaryan spins with a back kick, and the heel smashes square into the cup and Culibao hits the mat in excruciating pain. Hickmott splits them up and informs Culibao he has five minutes to recover. Baghdasaryan tries to signal that it was not a groin shot, but on replay, he is informed of the foul. Baghdasaryan goes to apologize, and Culibao, still in agony, recognizes it was not at all intentional and holds no ill will. Culibao signals that after about two minutes, he is good to go, and the doctor is ushered out of the cage. Upon restart, Culibao lets fly a head kick, Baghdasaryan does the same, and the latter uses the momentum to fire off a tornado kick right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan

Round 2
Baghdasaryan offers a fist bump, and Culibao accepts it. Baghdasaryan comes up short by a matter of inches with an axe kick, and they crash together in an exchange and clash heads. Culibao protests, and Hickmott to tells them to fight on as Culibao reels. Baghdasaryan does not give chase, and instead appears to take a little time to clear his own head. Baghdasaryan reaches out with his right hand outstretched to hand-fight, and Culibao winds up with two kicks that make Baghdasaryan nod at him. They trade low kicks, and Baghdasaryan targets the body with his shin. Baghdasaryan kicks low, and
Culibao stabs out a jab and tackles him over to the floor to grab hold of his man in an instant. Baghdasaryan turns to his knees to stand back up, but this is the worst decision he can make, as Culibao takes his back and latches on to a rear-naked choke. The forearm begins to crush Baghdasaryan’s bottom jaw with the Californian’s mouth open, and Culibao sneakily slides it under the chin to cinch it up completely. Baghdasaryan does not need more than a second or two before he surrenders,
and Culibao has now landed the first submission of his career. The crowd goes wild, and Culibao leaps atop the cage and motions to the crowd to give him a beer. “Kuya” does not end up getting one in time, but he will likely be treated to many on the way out and more celebrating tonight.

The Official Result
Joshua Culibao def. Melsik Baghdasaryan R2 2:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

Angelo leans towards Josh Culibao, citing his impressive striking defense in his last fight and speed advantage. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has raw power but struggled against a short-notice opponent. He expects a close fight and suggests betting on the plus 3.5 points line for the underdog, as it's likely a 29-28 decision.

Bet on plus 3.5 points for underdog
"I'm gonna lean [__] bow here melsic is likely the guy with more raw power but [__] about should be faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and has no strong lean. He picks Baghdasaryan as the better striker with more tools on the feet, but notes Baghdasaryan's cardio issues. He expects a close decision, possibly split, and acknowledges Culibao's underrated skills.

"I'm gonna take the better Striker ... Mel sick bogus sorry in here I'll take him to win by a very close and competitive decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

Cody picks Culibao, noting he is young (28) and has shown power and wrestling. He thinks Culibao can mix in takedowns and pressure, and has the crowd on his side. He is not confident because Culibao is even money and he doesn't like betting him at that price. He sees Baghdasaryan as one-dimensional and injury-prone.

"I think cool about Springs what I would say was the upset but it's even money so we just Springs the win I guess"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

Connor picks Culibao, emphasizing that Baghdasaryan's kicks are not a great way to maintain distance and that Culibao can pressure him, put a pace on him, and work his boxing. He notes that Baghdasaryan resets after every strike, giving Culibao opportunities to counter. Connor also points out that Culibao has remarkable poise and determination, and that Baghdasaryan's fights often look closer than they should because he doesn't finish people.

"I think cool about has even more than a lot of these fighters a pretty remarkable sort of poise and a determination to his approach."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Baghdasaryan has heavy hands and good power. Culibao's pressure style could walk into a knockout. Baghdasaryan has shown discipline and patience, finishing Colin England in round two. Culibao is durable but has been hurt before. Baghdasaryan's power should be the difference early. If it goes longer, Culibao's pressure could cause issues, but Baghdasaryan likely lands a big shot in the first round.

"I do think though that coolibow is gonna walk himself into getting knocked out in the early goings of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Paul slightly leans Baghdasaryan if the fight becomes a 15-minute standup battle, citing his more complex striking and higher volume. He notes Culibao's low output in recent fights. However, he is not betting the fight and rates neither fighter's wrestling highly.

"if this fight turns into a 15 minute stand-up fight I'll ever slightly lean towards Mel sic bag disarion"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The MMA Guru picks Melsik Baghdasaryan over Josh Culibao, noting that Culibao's success comes from opponents getting wild, while Baghdasaryan is composed and fundamental. He expects a tactical fight with Baghdasaryan winning by decision 29-28, landing more strikes without getting into scrambles.

decision 29-28
"I'm gonna go melt it back to Syrian by decision 29-28"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

Zane picks Culibao because he is a prepared and disciplined fighter who sticks to his game plan. He notes that Culibao has a knack for creating gritty wins and that Baghdasaryan's kicking-heavy style is vulnerable to pressure and clinch work. Zane believes Culibao can crash through Baghdasaryan's range, take him down, or grind him against the fence, and that Baghdasaryan's finishing ability has dried up at the UFC level.

"I think this is a very winnable, you know, it's certainly a more dissectable opponent than Charles Jordain, who Koolabow fought his way to a very, you know, hard battled draw."
WIN vs Bruno Souza
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 75 of 124 60% 77 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Bruno Souza 0 46 of 103 44% 47 of 104 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 21 of 36 58% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Bruno Souza 0 11 of 24 45% 12 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 31 of 43 72% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Bruno Souza 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bruno Souza 0 19 of 42 45% 19 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melsik Baghdasaryan 75 of 124 60% 26 of 63 25 of 32 24 of 29 68 of 117 7 of 7 0 of 0
Bruno Souza 46 of 103 44% 27 of 70 13 of 24 6 of 9 41 of 96 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 21 of 36 58% 4 of 14 8 of 10 9 of 12 18 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Bruno Souza 11 of 24 45% 5 of 14 5 of 8 1 of 2 10 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 31 of 43 72% 13 of 21 8 of 11 10 of 11 29 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Bruno Souza 16 of 37 43% 12 of 27 2 of 6 2 of 4 14 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 23 of 45 51% 9 of 28 9 of 11 5 of 6 21 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Bruno Souza 19 of 42 45% 10 of 29 6 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Bruno Souza (148.4: Missed Weight)

Round 1
Just like the last fight, a newcomer trying to introduce themselves to the promotion misses weight, as Souza (10-1, 0-0 UFC) clocked in at 148.4 pounds for his featherweight tilt against Baghdasaryan (6-1, 1-0 UFC). The young man out of Glendale Fighting Club will undoubtedly try to make the Brazilian pay for coming in heavy, but there is still a slight sign of respect when they touch gloves. Referee Todd Anderson takes charge of the cage, and Baghdasaryan starts off with a sweeping leg kick. The two strikers get back to kicking range, with Baghdasaryan swiping out low with leg kicks. Souza leads off with a right hand and ducks away before getting countered. The Brazilian lets loose with a body kick, and he loudly kiais after throwing it. Baghdasaryan targets the calf of his opponent with a thudding kick, and he ducks when Souza swings a right hand at him. Baghdasaryan calmly walks towards his opponent, making the newcomer circle around the cage as the crowd is not enjoying the lack of action. Out of nowhere, Souza leaps in the air with a flying knee, and it gets blocked and he returns to circling away. As Souza throws a body kick, Baghdasaryan counters him with a clean left hand. Baghdasaryan’s advancement has led to him dropping his hands, not afraid of what Souza throws at him. Baghdasaryan gets off a single punch to the body, and he just misses with a high kick. Souza fires a pair of kick at his opponent to back him away, but Baghdasaryan continues stalking him and slings a spinning back kick. “The Gun” shoots off a leg kick, and Souza’s lead leg is showing some serious damage. A big leg kick from Baghdasaryan makes Souza shoot in for a single, and he picks Baghdasaryan’s leg up in the air while Baghdasaryan tries to defend with a choke attempt. Souza ties his foe’s leg up but he cannot hit the trip he is seeking, and instead eats a few knees for his effort. Baghdasaryan gets away with a fence grab, and Anderson slaps his hand away from it to let go. This forces them to break apart, and Souza scores a stabbing body kick and a right hand on his way outside. Souza spins with a wheel kick, and although it gets blocked, the impact of the strike knocks Souza into the wall as he stumbles back. Souza gets back up and lands a body kick, and he fires a right hand that misses. Baghdasaryan slaps him in the face – open-handed strikes are so hot right now – and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan

Round 2
They think to touch gloves, but instead, Baghdasaryan is ready to throw a kick at him. This allows Souza to preemptively tag him in the face with a right hand and wobble his legs. Souza pushes through a kick to knock Baghdasaryan on his back, but he lets him up instead of pursuing any ground strikes of merit. A kick from Baghdasaryan makes Souza take several steps back, as if he is hurt, but the Brazilian is quick to get back to his active movement and circling. The strategic nature of Souza’s style has grown ire from the crowd, as the lack of engagement is boring to their eyes. The chess match continues as Souza keeps circling and taking potshots, while Baghdasaryan swings and misses. A low kick grazes into Souza’s cup, but he does not want to slow down. Instead, he swarms Baghdasaryan with punches, and Baghdasaryan greets him with a right hand counter to stop that salvo in its tracks. They come together, and Baghdasaryan just misses with a knee. Baghdasaryan continues to sporadically target the lead leg with kicks, and Souza’s leg appears badly damaged. One kick from “The Gun” makes Souza’s knee buckle, and he falls forward to try to take the fight down. When it is not there, he hops back and is limping. Baghdasaryan crashes the pocket, and he gets stopped when Souza defends with a standing guillotine choke. They resume distance kickboxing range, and Baghdasaryan clips his opponent with a left hand after Souza misses with strikes. Souza boots the body with his shin, and he sticks out a sharp jab to intercept a kicking Baghdasaryan. They both kick at the same time, and Souza lands and gets off a straight right hand. Baghdasaryan has his fingers outstretched, and Anderson has gotten tired warning him for it. This lights a fire under Souza, who starts throwing caution to the wind and tagging Baghdasaryan. The Californian by way of Armenia returns fire and staggers Souza with a right hand, but he does not follow it up and lets Souza get himself back in the fight. The round ends as Baghdasaryan retreats.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan

Round 3
Anderson gives Baghdasaryan one final warning for outstretched fingers before the start of the round, and they get after it. Souza throws kicks with body legs, and he eats a left hand and starts grinning. Two heavy punches slam into Baghdasaryan’s chin from a one-two, and Souza backs away before counters can reach him. Baghdasaryan goes over the top with a kick, and he misses by an inch. Souza chips away with leg kicks and stays elusive, as fans and Baghdasaryan are similarly frustrated by his approach. Souza darts in, lands a punch, and backs off. Suddenly, he sneaks in with a takedown try, but Baghdasaryan stops it standing and pushes him away. A big leg kick from Baghdasaryan draws a visible reaction out of his opponent, and Souza chomps on his gumshield to sling a pair of wide hooks. Baghdasaryan targets the lead leg again, and Souza takes it back before returning to southpaw for more punishment. The Brazilian steps in with a knee, and they exchange hands, with Baghdasaryan answering with a knee after they trade. Souza blitzes forward with punches, and they hit nothing but air. Baghdasaryan swings a kick to the body, and when it misses, Souza returns fire with one that connects. Souza is able to block a head kick, and he counters a subsequent kick try with a left hand over the top. Souza stays on his bike away from the more dangerous strikes that come at him, ducking and dodging strikes before ducking into a single. Souza lifts his foe’s leg up, but he cannot ground him, with Baghdasaryan hopping out of harm’s way and returning to the middle of the Octagon. Souza swings wildly, and Baghdasaryan sees the blows coming and avoids them. The number of inaccurate strikes by both men has drawn unease from the crowd, as they are giving it to them during inactive stretches. Souza swings a high kick and tags Baghdasaryan with a right hand, only to get nailed with one of his own on the way out. Souza eats a punch and returns with one of his own, and when the final horn bells and they hug it out, the crowd rains down boos.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Baghdasaryan)

The Official Result
Melsik Baghdasaryan def. Bruno Souza via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Souza

Angelo picks Bruno Souza, the counter-striker with a karate style, to weather Baghdasaryan's early storm and win a decision. He notes Souza's timing, takedowns, submissions, and champion experience. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a moneyline bet, as Baghdasaryan's power and forward pressure are real threats. He sees this as a clash of styles where Souza's matador approach could work.

"i'm gonna take the counter striker to weather the early storm and ride out a decision literally just hopping in and out staying away from the big power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Big Brady is high on Melsik Baghdasaryan, praising his striking and power. He notes Baghdasaryan's takedown defense and get-up game are solid, and he doesn't think Bruno Souza will pose a threat on the feet. Brady watched four of Souza's fights and was unimpressed, calling him a low-volume, kick-heavy fighter who doesn't go for takedowns. He predicts Baghdasaryan will knock Souza out, as the line could be even wider.

win by knockout
"give me a message in bagassarine to win give me melzering baghdasarian to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Cody picks Baghdasaryan, citing his power and finishing ability. He notes Souza's hittable karate style and lack of power. He expects Baghdasaryan to catch Souza and KO him inside the distance.

"give me a melsic vegetarian by ko inside the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Daniel Levi picks Melsik Baghdasaryan, favoring his Muay Thai over Bruno Souza's karate style. He notes that Baghdasaryan is a K-1 striker with over 100 kickboxing matches, and that his left kick and straight left are powerful. Levi acknowledges that Souza is a Machida protege with good experience, but believes Baghdasaryan has a higher ceiling and can handle grappling. He expects a late knockout or decision win.

third round knockout
"i see him getting the uh a win here it could be a late knockout"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Jacob strongly disagrees with Angelo, picking Melsik Baghdasaryan. He calls Souza a 'weirdo' with a slow, awkward karate style, noting that three of his wins are split decisions and one is a DQ. He believes Baghdasaryan's aggression, power, and finishing ability will overwhelm Souza, especially if he pressures him against the fence where the karate stance becomes ineffective. Jacob expects an early finish.

"i like milsic to absolutely dominate dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The host likes Baghdasaryan's power and aggression but worries about his gas tank. He thinks Baghdasaryan will likely win by knockout early, but if it goes past the first round, Souza's elusiveness could cause problems. He prefers the KO prop at +150 or round 1 prop at +300 rather than the moneyline. He also considers a small sprinkle on Souza round 3 at +2000.

Baghdasaryan by KO (+150), Baghdasaryan round 1 (+300), Souza round 3 (+2000)
"i'm going bhagasarian first round ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Paul picks Baghdasaryan, expecting a KO. He notes Souza's hittable style and Baghdasaryan's power. He bets under 2.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision, and Baghdasaryan by KO.

under 2.5 rounds (+115), fight doesn't go to decision (+100), Baghdasaryan by KO (+160)
"melsic by knockouts like plus 160 right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The Guru trusts Melsik Baghdasaryan, noting his kickboxing and boxing background, and his impressive Contender Series wins. He believes Baghdasaryan is superior on the feet and has adequate ground game to work back up. He also factors in Souza taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his cardio. The Guru predicts a TKO finish for Baghdasaryan.

"I trust melcyk baghdasarian here to get this one done against bruno silva his short notice replacement."
WIN vs Collin Anglin
TKO (head kick and punches) R2 1:50 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 25 of 51 49% 28 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Collin Anglin 1 44 of 75 58% 51 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 20 of 40 50% 23 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Collin Anglin 0 34 of 53 64% 41 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Collin Anglin 1 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melsik Baghdasaryan 25 of 51 49% 14 of 34 9 of 15 2 of 2 19 of 43 6 of 8 0 of 0
Collin Anglin 44 of 75 58% 28 of 52 12 of 15 4 of 8 32 of 62 10 of 10 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 20 of 40 50% 13 of 28 6 of 11 1 of 1 15 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Collin Anglin 34 of 53 64% 21 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 23 of 42 10 of 10 1 of 1
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Collin Anglin 10 of 22 45% 7 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 4 9 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Collin Anglin vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Round 1
A pair of once-beaten newcomers coming off of decision wins on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2020 are about to dance, when Anglin (8-1, 0-0 UFC) and Baghdasaryan (5-1, 0-0 UFC) square off at featherweight. Both hold impressive knockout rates above 50 percent without a submission between them, and the strikes will almost certainly fly before referee Mark Smith. The UFC neophytes opt not to touch gloves before looking to knock the other’s head off, and Baghdasaryan starts off with kicks. He looses a head kick and several leg kicks, but Anglin is there to meet him with heavy punches. Both men land hard on each other, and Anglin walks forward with his right hand ready to unload on the chin. Anglin ties his foe up, but Baghdasaryan pushes off to free himself. Anglin holds tight, knees Baghdasaryan on the jaw twice, and Baghdasaryan yanks himself out. This clinch-to-knee exchange happens again, with Anglin scoring effectively with another knee. When Baghdasaryan gains some space, he gets off a one-two and a left hand down the pipe. Baghdasaryan reaches with a head kick, and he misses with a punch but follows it with a crisp left hand. Baghdasaryan knocks Anglin into the fence with another, but Anglin is ready to turn him about and set up a knee. Baghdasaryan rips the body with a knee, and he chains a knee into his combination to the same spot. Baghdasaryan clinches up, and Anglin welcomes it as he knees his foe in the face. Baghdasaryan slings a body kick as Anglin hobbles back, until he crashes forward and hits a takedown to put the Glendale Fighting Club on his back. Baghdasaryan scrambles and gets to a knees before standing up, and he tries to land strikes in the clinch but hands on to the cage and gets warned. Anglin plants his foot on the stomach a few times until Baghdasaryan has had enough and lays into him with a big left hand. He drills Anglin with another as the two get pressed into the wire again, leading to Anglin kneeing him a few times. The break comes courtesy of an Anglin elbow, and he mixes up his strikes with kicks and long punches to make Baghdasaryan reset. Baghdasaryan fires off a front kick and a left hand, and he wings a few standing hammerfists that land on the back of Anglin’s head as Anglin is rocked badly. Anglin hangs on tight to tie him up, and he just barely avoids a spinning back elbow on the break. Anglin pops him with a left hand, and he drops his hands and celebrates his handiwork as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan

Round 2
Both featherweights are fired up to pick up where they left off, and Smith has to hold them back until he clocks them in. Baghdasaryan takes the center of the cage as his foe circles around him, and the two trade calf kicks. They turn those low kicks into front kicks to the body, with one landing and the other answer. Anglin snipes him with a cracking body kick, and his foe paws out his fingers and may have poked the eye. There is no break, and Baghdasaryan instead lands his own body kick. Anglin steps in with a knee, and Baghdasaryan blasts him with a counter left hand that may have been a slap and not a punch. He throws this same strike again, a loud slap, as if his hand may be damaged from throwing it so hard, so often in the first round.
His feet are fine, and he proves this by launching a head kick that cracks Anglin behind the ear and sends him down to the ground in a heap. Anglin absorbs one flush hammerfist before Smith can reach him to stop the fight, as the kick was enough to knock the screws loose
. This knockout for Baghdasaryan ends a long stretch of decisions with a bang, while he became the first man to beat Anglin inside the distance.

The Official Result
Melsik Baghdasaryan def. Collin Anglin R2 1:50 via KO (Head Kick)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Big Brady picks Melsik Baghdasaryan, impressed by his kickboxing background and knockout power. He believes Baghdasaryan will catch Anglin early, as Anglin may try to strike before grappling. Brady notes Baghdasaryan's takedown defense looked solid on the Contender Series and that he has cardio from his kickboxing career. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm going to take mel sik bhagasarian i'm going to take him by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Cody leans towards Melsik Baghdasaryan, praising his striking credentials including kickboxing and boxing experience. He notes that Baghdasaryan showed he can go three rounds in his Contender Series fight, adjusting his pace. Cody believes Baghdasaryan's striking will be too much for Anglin, who has a wrestling advantage but may not be able to get takedowns. He is not completely writing off Anglin but favors Baghdasaryan.

"i would lean towards him but uh i wouldn't completely write off england if he can get a couple takedowns early work them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Collin Anglin

Levi views this as a coin-flip fight. He acknowledges Baghdasaryan's power and impressive finishes on the regional scene but questions his level of competition and how he will handle extended fights or takedowns. Anglin is the more well-rounded fighter with proven wrestling and the ability to push a hard pace. Levi is concerned about Anglin being hittable but goes with Anglin due to his versatility and experience.

"I'm gonna go with colin anglin here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Baghdasaryan has devastating power and technical striking from his kickboxing background. He throws heavy leg kicks, body kicks, and punches down the middle. Even when he gasses, he still throws with power. Anglin has decent experience but hasn't faced someone with this level of striking. Baghdasaryan's speed and precision should find Anglin's chin early.

Baghdasaryan by KO +275; Baghdasaryan round 1 +450; Under 2.5 rounds +125
"I'm going to go with Baghdasaryan and I'm going to take him to win my first round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick on the moneyline but instead bets on the fight not going the distance. He notes that both fighters have high finish rates and that Baghdasaryan comes out aggressively while Anglin has shown finishing ability. He placed a small bet on under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go the distance, seeing it as a 50/50 proposition.

Paul bet on under 2.5 rounds at +130 and fight doesn't go the distance at +120.
"i ended up taking a poke on the under plus 120 um i just think 50 of the time these two guys go in there either melsic empties the bag too early gets finished late"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Collin Anglin

The MMA Guru picks Collin Anglin over Melsik Baghdasaryan, stating that Anglin has fought better opponents and has an amateur MMA background, making him more well-rounded. He notes that Baghdasaryan is a crossover from boxing/kickboxing and hasn't faced credible competition. He expects Anglin to mix in grappling and win via his well-rounded skills.

"i'm gonna go with colin anglin here... he's fought some better opponents"
Tucker Lutz - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 36 of 109 33% 41 of 115 3 of 9 33% 0 0 6:19
Tucker Lutz 0 64 of 108 59% 74 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:56
Tucker Lutz 0 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 21 of 64 32% 22 of 65 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 49 57% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 3 of 18 16% 6 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:48
Tucker Lutz 0 25 of 40 62% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melsik Baghdasaryan 36 of 109 33% 14 of 71 16 of 28 6 of 10 34 of 105 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 64 of 108 59% 32 of 66 30 of 40 2 of 2 50 of 88 11 of 16 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 12 of 27 44% 4 of 18 5 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 11 of 19 57% 4 of 9 6 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 21 of 64 32% 10 of 40 8 of 19 3 of 5 20 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 28 of 49 57% 16 of 34 11 of 14 1 of 1 26 of 46 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 3 of 18 16% 0 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 15 1 of 3 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 25 of 40 62% 12 of 23 13 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 25 10 of 14 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Tucker Lutz
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baghdasaryan (-165), Lutz (+140)

Round 1
The prelims come to a close with the first combatant of the night sporting a winning record inside the Octagon. Baghdasaryan (7-2, 2-1 UFC) did get choked out back in February, so he hopes to get back in the win column at the expense of the skidding Lutz (12-3, 1-2 UFC). In this featherweight contest of “The Gun” vs. “Top Gun,” respectively, expect a potential firefight. Referee Jacob Montalvo dons his bulletproof armor, and the fighters touch ‘em up before pulling the trigger. Baghdasaryan reaches out with a body kick to introduce himself, and he kicks the lead leg to follow. Lutz responds with two leg kicks, and he swats away a reverse crescent kick and has his guard up to block a subsequent high kick. Baghdasaryan’s shin bounces right off Lutz’ chin, and Lutz tanks it and kicks Baghdasaryan in the ribs twice. They both paw at one another with straight right hands, and Lutz is ripping kicks to the body while Baghdasaryan is aiming them high. Lutz strings three punches together that clatter off the forehead, and he chambers and looses another kick to the side. Baghdasaryan pays him back with one, leading Lutz to offer up a takedown attempt. “Top Gun” is able to complete the takedown he seeks, sucking Baghdasaryan’s legs out beneath him and hooking his own legs around Baghdasaryan’s. This keeps Baghdasaryan on his seat without a way to get up, and try as he might, Baghdasaryan cannot stand. Lutz is primarily focused on position over any other offense, as Baghdasaryan is leaned with his back to the cage. Baghdasaryan slowly scoots his leg free from the triangle that kept him stuck, and he stands up. Lutz is quick to drag him right back down, and he ignores an elbow that bounces off the side of the head. Baghdasaryan explodes to his knees, but Lutz yanks him back out again. Baghdasaryan returns to his feet while Lutz is clinging to him, and Lutz looks to trip him out from behind. Lutz lifts Baghdasaryan up, and Baghdasaryan grabs the fence a few times to prevent him from getting grounded. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lutz
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Lutz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lutz

Round 2
The fighters either touch gloves or stick out alternating jabs at the same time to start off the round, and they get going with kicks one after the other. Lutz slaps a kick to the upper thigh, and he springs out of the way from a jab to the body from his opponent. Baghdasaryan splits the lowered guard with a front kick on the belly, and he drills Lutz in the face with a reverse crescent kick. In an exchange, Baghdasaryan connects with a few punches including a stiff uppercut, hurting Lutz and sending him backpedaling. This puts the Baghdasaryan in the driver’s seat, who leaps in the air and kicks at Lutz like Josh Thomson against Nate Diaz. Lutz defends from the blow and the subsequent strikes enough to gather his wits, and he starts to fire back with bad intentions. Lutz slams his shin to the belly a few times, and he eats two jabs that snap his head back. Baghdasaryan wings a left hand that bounces off the cup, and it pounds square into Lutz’ cup. Lutz doubles over and clutches his groin, and Baghdasaryan does not pause as he kicks Lutz upside the head before Montalvo can reach him. Lutz takes the time he needs to recover, and he is ready to re-engage in a brawl. Catching Baghdasaryan with a right hand and a knee, Lutz gets backed away with a front kick. Lutz spams leg kicks, and he is driven back with a solid one-two. Lutz throws a naked body kick, and Baghdasaryan counters him and shuts down a takedown attempt from the surging Lutz. Baghdasaryan lands one body kick, and Lutz reaches him with two. Both men trade hands, and the Glendale Fighting Club fighter’s head movement is minimal as he gets tagged by Lutz. Baghdasaryan has the power to surprise Lutz, which defends him from Lutz surges. Baghdasaryan rifles off a piston-like jab that Lutz takes right on the nose to knock his head back, forcing Lutz into takedown mode. Lutz grabs hold of his foe and deposits Baghdasaryan to the floor with 30 seconds left in the round. Lutz hangs on tight, riding out the remainder of the round in this position without doing anything else with it but catching his breath.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan

Round 3
The featherweights touch ‘em up to start off the last round, and Lutz races forward throwing leather. Baghdasaryan shoves him back, and two of his fingers jab deep into Lutz’ eye socket. Lutz yelps in pain as he backs away, and Montalvo calls time. Lutz states the he is good to go within a minute, answering the doctor that he can see just fine. Montalvo warns Baghdasaryan sternly for fouls, and the two restart after 75 seconds away. Lutz springs right into action, and Baghdasaryan does just the same, knocking Lutz back with a few punches. Lutz responds with a loud body kick, and he tags Baghdasaryan with a left hand. Baghdasaryan responds with an axe kick that misses the mark by a foot, and Lutz steps in with a right hand that lands on the chin. Baghdasaryan strings three punches together to rock Lutz, and Lutz drops to his knees to hunt for a takedown. Lutz clasps his hands and lowers Baghdasaryan to his knee, and Baghdasaryan stays busy with elbows to the side. Lutz sells out for a single, and he trips Baghdasaryan down and takes his back even as Baghdasaryan grabs the fence repeatedly. Montalvo even slaps Baghdasaryan’s hands out of the fence, and Lutz snakes his right arm around the chest as he gets one hook in. Baghdasaryan wriggles and through sheer force of will, he works out of the position and stands up. In a close clinch, Baghdasaryan slams his knees on the midsection, and Lutz winces in pain – possibly because one glanced off his cup during the exchange. Baghdasaryan keeps spamming knees even when he is turned around against the wire, and Lutz searches for a single-leg takedown. Baghdasaryan elbows Lutz on the side of the head and stifles Lutz from getting it, and he delivers a few more knees to the body for good measure. With 25 seconds to spare, Baghdasaryan pushes off and spins with a back kick to the body. Baghdasaryan races after his opponent, belting Lutz in the face with a left hand. The two tie back up, with Baghdasaryan initiating the clinch so that he can open up with knees and elbows up close. Lutz breaks off and evades a spin kick to his midsection, and Baghdasaryan steps in with a knee. Lutz lands a right hand over the top, and the horn sounds to end this 15-minute engagement.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)

The Official Result
Melsik Baghdasaryan def. Tucker Lutz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Tucker Lutz as the underdog, citing a wider wrestling and grappling skill gap than the striking gap. He believes Tucker can keep a tight guard, come forward, and look to wrestle, needing a perfect 15-minute fight to avoid getting knocked out. He notes that Melsik is dangerous late, having gotten a third-round KO after giving up takedowns, so Tucker must be cautious. Angelo is surprised Melsik is a 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight could be a boring wrestling match.

"the pick's gonna be Tucker here as the underdog right off the rip but he's gonna need to fight a perfect fight for 15 minutes and avoid getting knocked out"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as a slight underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Baghdasaryan is the better striker with power, but Lutz has solid wrestling and cardio. He expects Lutz to get takedowns and control time, while Baghdasaryan may have bigger moments on the feet. He thinks it goes to a close decision and sides with the dog, though he missed the better plus money earlier.

"give me Tucker Lutz to slightly Edge it out although I'm a big fan of Mel sakir I think stylistically uh Striker versus wrestler I mean this one could be close to give me Tucker Lutz for the upset in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody reluctantly picks Lutz as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage if he uses it. He notes Baghdasaryan is a dangerous striker but has poor takedown defense, as seen in the Culibao fight. He acknowledges Lutz has looked bad recently, getting chin-checked by Pineda, but thinks the plus money is worth a shot. He has zero confidence but sees an angle.

"probably a bad play I have zero confidence in Tucker Lutz but I feel like there's an angle there that he can now grapple and use some wrestling so again zero confidence out of me but I gotta take some …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

James is leaning towards Tucker Lutz as an underdog. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has grappling deficiencies and was submitted quickly in his last fight. He questions whether Lutz has the offensive wrestling and cardio to exploit those weaknesses, but thinks the line may offer value on the dog side. He plans to watch tape to confirm.

"I honestly would be looking at a taco side a lot more than laying -220 over melson baghdasarian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The host expects a pissed-off Baghdasaryan to take out his aggression on Lutz, using his combinations and power to stifle Lutz. He notes Lutz has broken before and thinks Baghdasaryan can win by decision, though he's not certain about a finish.

"give me talk to saurian feeling pretty good about him as well and I think he wins this fight low confidence I'm going to say by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Paul leans toward Baghdasaryan, citing his striking advantage and Lutz's poor striking defense. He notes the market moved from -200 to -160, making it less valuable. He thinks Baghdasaryan can exploit Lutz's defensive flaws and land big shots. He is not convinced in Lutz's wrestling ability and sees this as a stay-away fight at current odds.

"I'll lean towards Mel sick because I'm just not convinced in Tucker Lutz's wrestling ability"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The MMA Guru picks Melsik Baghdasaryan over Tucker Lutz, citing Baghdasaryan's superior striking skill and fluidity compared to Lutz's awkward, rigid style. He notes Lutz has lost two in a row and questions his ability to outgrapple Baghdasaryan, who hasn't been exposed on the ground aside from a submission loss to Joshua Culibao after winning the fight. He trusts Baghdasaryan's prior performances, including a 3-0 streak and a Contender Series win, and predicts a decision victory.

"I've got to go with meltic bagdasarian here over tuckalatz he just seems the more talented of the two of them"
LOSS vs Daniel Pineda
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:50 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Pineda 1 24 of 45 53% 41 of 66 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:20
Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 78 35% 33 of 84 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Pineda 1 17 of 32 53% 28 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:50
Tucker Lutz 0 24 of 65 36% 29 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
2 Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 13 53% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:30
Tucker Lutz 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Pineda 24 of 45 53% 10 of 24 4 of 10 10 of 11 22 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 28 of 78 35% 17 of 61 8 of 11 3 of 6 22 of 71 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Pineda 17 of 32 53% 4 of 14 4 of 9 9 of 9 16 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 24 of 65 36% 15 of 50 7 of 10 2 of 5 18 of 58 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Daniel Pineda 7 of 13 53% 6 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Lutz, expecting him to weather Pineda's early storm and then take over with wrestling. He notes that Pineda is feast-or-famine with a 100% finish rate but fades quickly. He thinks Lutz is powerful and should get takedowns and a finish. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go the distance' rather than a moneyline.

Fight doesn't go the distance (recommended parlay piece)
"Tucker Lutz should win this fight he should be able to get the wrestling going."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz by third-round TKO, viewing it as a fade on Daniel Pineda. He notes Pineda's age (37), history of PED use, and tendency to gas out after the first round. Brady believes Lutz's grinding style and pace will wear down Pineda, who has never won a 15-minute fight. He expects Lutz to survive the early danger and finish Pineda late.

Lutz by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to say Lutz wins this fight I'll say like third round TKO just due to Pineda having nothing left in the tank"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks Lutz confidently, calling Pineda a one-round fighter with poor cardio and a history of fading. He notes Pineda is 37, off a two-year layoff, and was previously caught for steroids. He believes Lutz's takedown defense and volume striking will neutralize Pineda's early grappling threat, and that Lutz will break Pineda down over three rounds.

Lutz wins by decision; live bet Lutz after first round
"We're going with Tucker Lutz this weekend I think that he gonna get the job done against Pineda"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Connor leans toward Tucker Lutz but expresses hesitation, noting that Lutz hasn't faced a fighter as violent and unpredictable as Daniel Pineda. He points out that Pineda has crushed young prospects before and that Lutz's recent UFC wins have been decisions against less dangerous opponents. Connor is curious to see how Lutz handles Pineda's calf kicks and chaotic pressure, and he wouldn't be super confident in Lutz passing this test just yet.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I wouldn't be super duper confident in him, in him passing it just yet."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Jacob picks Lutz but is not confident, echoing that Lutz should win but the fight is not worth betting. He notes that Pineda is tough and wild, and that Lutz was out-grappled by Sabatini, but that is not a concern. He says the breakdowns are repetitive because many favorites on this card are similar.

"Tucker Lutz yes he should win he should be tough enough again as we mentioned the time before nothing jumps out on the film."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The host leans with the younger, faster, more explosive Tucker Lutz, expecting him to come back with vengeance after his first UFC loss. He thinks Lutz's combination striking, speed, and explosiveness will find Pineda's chin and put him away via ground and pound. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as Pineda's fights almost always finish inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to lean with a younger faster more explosive Tucker Lutz in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The Guru picks Lutz, noting Pineda's gas tank issues and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Lutz's durability and cardio will allow him to win the last two rounds via decision, despite a tough first round.

"I'm gonna go with Tucker Lutz... I can actually see him winning this one by 29-28 unanimous decision based on the last two rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Zane picks Tucker Lutz because he sees Lutz as a solid, reliable fighter who is difficult to finish and has a safe, counter-punching style that should outlast Daniel Pineda's wild aggression. He notes that Pineda is prone to self-destructing and fading as the fight goes on, while Lutz has the durability and technical boxing to stay out of harm's way and accumulate points. Zane also mentions that Lutz's style is similar to Cody Stamann's, which has proven effective against aggressive but less technical opponents.

Odds: Lutz opened at -225, currently -274; Pineda opened at +190, currently +216. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, saying 'I don't really think the odds should be too, too wide for this.'
"That is the reason really that I'm picking Lutz. I just solid, reliable."
LOSS vs Pat Sabatini
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 16 of 24 66% 111 of 132 5 of 11 45% 3 1 10:55
Tucker Lutz 0 17 of 35 48% 36 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 6 of 11 54% 45 of 59 2 of 6 33% 1 0 3:35
Tucker Lutz 0 8 of 11 72% 9 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Pat Sabatini 0 3 of 3 100% 56 of 60 1 of 1 100% 2 1 4:40
Tucker Lutz 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 10 70% 10 of 13 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:40
Tucker Lutz 0 7 of 18 38% 25 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 16 of 24 66% 9 of 17 4 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 20 2 of 2 2 of 2
Tucker Lutz 17 of 35 48% 5 of 21 9 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 8 of 11 72% 3 of 6 3 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tucker Lutz 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 7 of 10 70% 4 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 7 of 18 38% 1 of 10 6 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tucker Lutz vs. Pat Sabatini

Round 1
The preliminary headliner is the first match of the day between two competitors with UFC records over .500, and it comes at 145 pounds between proud Pennsylvanian Sabatini (15-3, 2-0 UFC) and Maryland-based rival “Top Gun” Lutz (12-1, 1-0 UFC). If maverick referee Mark Smith is not at the top of his game, he may find himself on a one-way trip to the danger zone during this potentially thrilling dogfight. The fighters are fueled up and touch gloves to launch the proceedings. Lutz walks forward, and he blocks a high kick so that he can kick low. The featherweights sling kicks at the same time, and Sabatini chomps down on his gumshield to swing looping hooks at his opponent. Sabatini lands a left hand, and Lutz is there to tag him with three punches. Sabatini punches his way into a level change, and Lutz counters him and hops back into the wall to keep his balance as Sabatini pursues a takedown. Lutz staves off the initial attempt, turns Sabatini into the wall, and then is forced to fight off a subsequent try. Sabatini is able to trip Lutz’ leg out beneath him but he cannot keep him there, until he finally pulls Lutz down to the mat. Lutz does not have any interest in playing on the ground here, and he walks his way up the wall until Sabatini lifts both of his legs up and drags him back out. Lutz still manages to get up, only to succumb to a mat return from a trip. Sabatini takes Lutz’ back in the process, with left hands that land as he flirts with a rear-naked choke setup. The punches continue to connect for the Philadelphia native, until Lutz turns over and falls into the choke. The submission is not under the neck, as Sabatini squeezes while Lutz’ face turns pink. Lutz toughs it out long enough for Sabatini to abandon that choke angle, and he is warned for grabbing Sabatini’s glove. Sabatini secures the body triangle, all while Lutz ducks his chin down so that the arm cannot snake on his throat. Sabatini softens him up with right hands, punching the side of Lutz’ head right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to begin the second frame, and Lutz comes out on the offensive. He lands a few punches, and when he tries to throw a kick, Sabatini grabs it and nails a clean double-leg takedown. Sabatini easily steps over to half guard, and Lutz hangs on to him to force a possible standup. Sabatini breaks the grip so that he can land punches and grind elbows, and he slides his knee over to take three-quarter mount. Lutz turns to his side to free himself, and when he does, Sabatini captures side control. Sabatini begins to pound on Lutz with short left hands, and as he does, Lutz turns the tables and gets to his knees. Sabatini takes advantage of this to jump guard for a guillotine choke, and he improves the choke into a mounted guillotine. Lutz fights off the choke but is still mounted, so he turns over to surrender his back again. Sabatini is happy to take it, where he hooks in a body triangle as he starts to fish for rear-naked chokes again. Lutz is able to work his way towards the wall, so that he can keep the cage between them and not allow Sabatini to get leverage. Sabatini still tries to get the choke, and Lutz stays smart enough to protect his neck, even when his face turns color. Sabatini cannot quite keep the grasp to tighten up a choke, as Lutz bucks and even sits up for a moment. Sabatini drags him back down, and he remains in dominant back control until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Sabatini backs away to throw a body kick. Lutz crashes forward to throw hands, with a left hook and a right to follow. Sabatini eats a few punches so that he can shoot in for a single, and Lutz keeps his foot in the air and sets it down against the fence. Sabatini tries to go for an inside trip that lifts Lutz’ leg up so that he can turn him around and slam him down, but Lutz sees this coming and is able to stay up. As they continue in this position, Lutz turns him around and lands his own takedown. Sabatini stands right up without a care in the world, and he attacks a single. The second attempt of the Philadelphian gets Lutz down to the floor, and Lutz is quick to stand to a knee and then back up. The mat return from Sabatini comes, and he successfully grounds Lutz with his backside on the fence. Dean tells them to work as soon as it hits the ground, and Sabatini obliges by grabbing hold of Lutz’ leg on the other side to take an advantageous posture. Lutz gets to his seat and stands, and they both try to toss the other and end up with their elbows hooked as they are both on their knees. Lutz gets up and lands a few knees up close, only for Sabatini to get off a one-two in response. Lutz begins to walk Sabatini down, looking for some strike that can win him the fight after losing practically every minute of the fight to this point. Sabatini ignores a strike coming his way so that he can tie Lutz up, and he instantly clings to Lutz like Saran wrap. Sabatini looks for trips from both legs, constantly frustrating Lutz with attempts and setups without letting Lutz do anything of his own. They separate for a second, until Sabatini darts in for a double. Lutz stands him up and punches him in the side a few times. The fight ends after they break from a clinch, with Lutz giving chase but not catching his foe.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Tucker Lutz via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, calling him an absolute dog with incredible grappling. He notes Tucker Lutz's striking is overrated and he has defensive holes, getting hit more than he lands despite being on top. He expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision, but does not place a bet due to tricky odds. He likes Sabatini's DraftKings price at 8700.

DraftKings price 8700; monkey knife fight less/less; mentions possibility of Sabatini inside distance / decision no action but too expensive
"i'm going with pat sabatini"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog at +120. He believes Lutz has the striking and volume advantage and that his takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing. He notes that Pat Sabatini's striking is a liability and that Lutz can outpoint him for three rounds. He warns that if the fight goes to the mat, Sabatini is dangerous, but he trusts Lutz to fight smart and keep it on the feet.

win by decision
"I'm actually going to take the dog here in tucker lutz ... give me uh tucker lutz to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks the underdog Tucker Lutz. He argues that Sabatini's grappling is excellent but his gas tank is questionable, as he gassed in the third round against Tristan Connolly. He notes that Sabatini's win over Jamal Emers was due to a mistake by Emers. Lutz is well-rounded with decent wrestling defense and technical boxing. Cody believes Lutz will sprawl and brawl, out-strike Sabatini, and win a close decision. He likes the plus money on a competitive fight.

"go take the dog shot here and go with uh tucker lutz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Daniel Levi leans toward Tucker Lutz as the underdog, but admits it's a tough fight to pick. He respects both fighters' skills, calling it a chess match. He notes that Lutz has good volume and is improving each fight, while Sabatini is crafty with a high fight IQ. Levi expects Lutz to close the distance and land harder shots down the stretch, but is not confident.

"i will take the dog tucker lutz but man i expect this to be like i said a chess match of thinking man's fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Lock likes Lutz as the better striker with a high school wrestling background to defend takedowns. He thinks Lutz will keep the fight standing and pick Sabatini apart with combinations. He notes Sabatini's striking is flashy but not effective, and that Lutz has the tools to avoid Sabatini's submission game. Lock took Lutz at +110 and likes the decision prop.

Tucker Lutz by decision +215, Tucker Lutz round 3 +2200
"I got one unit on him at plus 110. I do think that he's the better striker of the two here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He says he will consider Lutz but is waiting for weigh-ins. He does not express a strong opinion either way.

"i'll consider lutz but i'm gonna wait for weigh-ins on that one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The MMA Guru picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog over Pat Sabatini. He notes that Sabatini was rocked by Jamal Emmers and has holes in his chin and range. He highlights Lutz's solid fundamentals, takedown defense, volume, and cardio. He expects Lutz to win by split decision (29-28), doing more damage in the second and third rounds.

"i'm going with an underdog again with tucker lutz here"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tucker Lutz 0 81 of 144 56% 132 of 196 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Kevin Aguilar 0 99 of 177 55% 114 of 192 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tucker Lutz 0 25 of 41 60% 50 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 33 of 53 62% 43 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:19
2 Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 50 56% 37 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Kevin Aguilar 0 34 of 59 57% 35 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
3 Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 53 52% 45 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Kevin Aguilar 0 32 of 65 49% 36 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tucker Lutz 81 of 144 56% 45 of 98 31 of 39 5 of 7 72 of 135 9 of 9 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 99 of 177 55% 59 of 131 21 of 26 19 of 20 91 of 167 5 of 6 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tucker Lutz 25 of 41 60% 10 of 24 13 of 15 2 of 2 24 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 33 of 53 62% 17 of 33 10 of 14 6 of 6 29 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2
2 Tucker Lutz 28 of 50 56% 16 of 33 10 of 13 2 of 4 23 of 45 5 of 5 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 34 of 59 57% 21 of 45 6 of 6 7 of 8 32 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tucker Lutz 28 of 53 52% 19 of 41 8 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 50 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 32 of 65 49% 21 of 53 5 of 6 6 of 6 30 of 61 1 of 2 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Aguilar

Aguilar is the better fighter overall with phenomenal takedown defense (87%) and has fought tougher competition. Lutz is very hittable with poor striking defense. However, Aguilar's low volume is a concern; he got outlanded in recent fights. I think Aguilar lands the harder shots and is live for a knockout, but I'm not betting on him.

by KO
"I'm going to take kevin aguilera to win by ko but i really don't want to put my money on this guy so i'm going to pass from a vetting perspective"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks Lutz, emphasizing Aguilar's chin issues. He notes that Aguilar has been knocked out by lesser strikers and Lutz has good durability. Cody believes Lutz's wrestling and ability to take a punch will allow him to win a decision or late finish.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i am going to go lots um"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Aguilar

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Aguilar, hoping he looks better than his last fight. He notes that Aguilar's previous loss to Charles Rosa was disappointing, but if he can improve even 1%, he can win. Levi acknowledges that Tucker Lutz is a workman with good kicks, but thinks Aguilar has the experience edge. He calls it a pick'em and a dog-or-pass situation.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with kevin because i'm hoping if he can just look one percent better"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The host leans toward Lutz, citing his versatility on the feet and wrestling background. He notes Aguilar marches forward in a straight line and throws big shots but lacks diversity. He thinks Lutz moves better, mixes up kicks, and has a strong lead kick. However, he acknowledges it could be a close stand-up fight and is not ultra confident, predicting a decision win for Lutz.

Lutz by decision
"i'll ultimately be going with tucker lutz to win this five-year decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Paul picks Lutz, noting that Aguilar has a weak chin and has been knocked out recently. He believes Lutz's durability and wrestling will be key. Paul expects Lutz to take shots and keep coming, while Aguilar may falter if hit. He sees this as a fun fight that could go to decision.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (43.5 for Lutz, 33.5 for Aguilar).
"i am going to go lots um"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The MMA Guru picks Tucker Lutz over Kevin Aguilar, citing Aguilar's recent decline and poor performances, including a loss to Charles Rosa. He believes Aguilar has taken too much damage and no longer takes shots well. He sees Lutz as a rising contender with momentum and predicts a close unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going with tucker lutz here"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Tucker Lutz as the underdog, citing a wider wrestling and grappling skill gap than the striking gap. He believes Tucker can keep a tight guard, come forward, and look to wrestle, needing a perfect 15-minute fight to avoid getting knocked out. He notes that Melsik is dangerous late, having gotten a third-round KO after giving up takedowns, so Tucker must be cautious. Angelo is surprised Melsik is a 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight could be a boring wrestling match.

"the pick's gonna be Tucker here as the underdog right off the rip but he's gonna need to fight a perfect fight for 15 minutes and avoid getting knocked out"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as a slight underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Baghdasaryan is the better striker with power, but Lutz has solid wrestling and cardio. He expects Lutz to get takedowns and control time, while Baghdasaryan may have bigger moments on the feet. He thinks it goes to a close decision and sides with the dog, though he missed the better plus money earlier.

"give me Tucker Lutz to slightly Edge it out although I'm a big fan of Mel sakir I think stylistically uh Striker versus wrestler I mean this one could be close to give me Tucker Lutz for the upset in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody reluctantly picks Lutz as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage if he uses it. He notes Baghdasaryan is a dangerous striker but has poor takedown defense, as seen in the Culibao fight. He acknowledges Lutz has looked bad recently, getting chin-checked by Pineda, but thinks the plus money is worth a shot. He has zero confidence but sees an angle.

"probably a bad play I have zero confidence in Tucker Lutz but I feel like there's an angle there that he can now grapple and use some wrestling so again zero confidence out of me but I gotta take some underdogs here and there I'm gonna take Tucker Lutz very …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

James is leaning towards Tucker Lutz as an underdog. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has grappling deficiencies and was submitted quickly in his last fight. He questions whether Lutz has the offensive wrestling and cardio to exploit those weaknesses, but thinks the line may offer value on the dog side. He plans to watch tape to confirm.

"I honestly would be looking at a taco side a lot more than laying -220 over melson baghdasarian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The host expects a pissed-off Baghdasaryan to take out his aggression on Lutz, using his combinations and power to stifle Lutz. He notes Lutz has broken before and thinks Baghdasaryan can win by decision, though he's not certain about a finish.

"give me talk to saurian feeling pretty good about him as well and I think he wins this fight low confidence I'm going to say by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Paul leans toward Baghdasaryan, citing his striking advantage and Lutz's poor striking defense. He notes the market moved from -200 to -160, making it less valuable. He thinks Baghdasaryan can exploit Lutz's defensive flaws and land big shots. He is not convinced in Lutz's wrestling ability and sees this as a stay-away fight at current odds.

"I'll lean towards Mel sick because I'm just not convinced in Tucker Lutz's wrestling ability"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The MMA Guru picks Melsik Baghdasaryan over Tucker Lutz, citing Baghdasaryan's superior striking skill and fluidity compared to Lutz's awkward, rigid style. He notes Lutz has lost two in a row and questions his ability to outgrapple Baghdasaryan, who hasn't been exposed on the ground aside from a submission loss to Joshua Culibao after winning the fight. He trusts Baghdasaryan's prior performances, including a 3-0 streak and a Contender Series win, and predicts a decision victory.

"I've got to go with meltic bagdasarian here over tuckalatz he just seems the more talented of the two of them"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Held the fence to defend takedown vs Lutz. Kicked Lutz in dick. Has fingers out. Eye poked him in the 3rd lol. Baghdasaryan is an angular fighter like poker. Fence grabbing in the 3rd. Would grab gloves too.