vs
-300 +250
UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Evan Elder
5.66 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.94 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.48 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Genaro Valdez
4.08 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
7.16 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.54 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Evan Elder
Moneyline
FanDuel -300
KO/TKO
BetRivers +155
Submission
BetMGM +500
Decision
BetWay +400
Genaro Valdez
Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
BetMGM +650
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
BetRivers +750
Evan Elder - Fight History
CANCEL vs Tom Nolan
WIN vs Gauge Young
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Evan Elder 0 115 of 210 54% 115 of 210 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
Gauge Young 0 81 of 183 44% 81 of 183 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Evan Elder 0 35 of 57 61% 35 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
Gauge Young 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Evan Elder 0 40 of 76 52% 40 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gauge Young 0 24 of 69 34% 24 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Evan Elder 0 40 of 77 51% 40 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gauge Young 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Evan Elder 115 of 210 54% 47 of 127 45 of 57 23 of 26 115 of 210 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gauge Young 81 of 183 44% 33 of 107 33 of 56 15 of 20 81 of 183 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Evan Elder 35 of 57 61% 13 of 31 14 of 18 8 of 8 35 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gauge Young 21 of 37 56% 6 of 15 9 of 15 6 of 7 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Evan Elder 40 of 76 52% 14 of 45 19 of 22 7 of 9 40 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gauge Young 24 of 69 34% 12 of 45 8 of 20 4 of 4 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Evan Elder 40 of 77 51% 20 of 51 12 of 17 8 of 9 40 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gauge Young 36 of 77 46% 15 of 47 16 of 21 5 of 9 36 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elder (-258), Young (+210)

Round 1
A pair of Missouri-based lightweights will share the Octagon with local bragging lights on the line. Elder (9-2, 2-2 UFC) will try to hold the line against newcomer Young (9-2, 0-0 UFC), and the 9-2 records of the two fighters will change in the next 15 minutes or less. It is Elder who is the elder, while Young is the younger of the two in this pairing. Drawing the assignment for this preliminary tilt will be referee Nick Berens, who is well-prepared if this one goes to the judges. The fighters and former teammates tap gloves first, and then get down to business. Young takes the center of the cage, and Elder uses his space to land strikes on the outside. When Young responds with a body kick, Elder clips him with an overhand right. Young staggers back, and Elder gives chase and tosses out a head kick before pursuing a takedown. Young stops the takedown by lifting Elder and hurling him to the side like a dad wrestling with his kid, and he backs Elder up and punches him in the face. Young stays busy with single strikes, potshotting the relative veteran with blows to all targets. Berens tells the fighters to keep their hands closed, and Young does not listen and pokes Elder in the eye when Elder was swinging for a right hand. During the 30-second break, Young is harshly warned for his infraction, and Elder responds, “it happens.” Elder fires off three body kicks one after the other, and his kick is the weapon that keeps Young away from him. Elder goes to the body with a kick, and Young grunts and has to quickly stuff a takedown entry. They trade punches, and Elder’s guard is up to block a high kick that follows. Elder hammers the side and lead leg with constant kicks, and he hears his corner calling for a hook kick and answers them with a spinning hook kick that slams Young in the side of the dome. Young tries to throw back, but he is out of range and is caught with another spin kick. Young is warned for outstretched fingers once more, and Elder further inflicts damage with his kicking arsenal. Elder fakes two takedowns, and then blasts the body with three kicks and aims a low kick right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elder

Round 2
Elder runs out of his corner to touch gloves, and Young stands firm in front of him and makes Elder back away. This does not prove to be a problem for Elder, who kicks and kicks and kicks. Young reaches him with an overhand right, and he clips Elder with a second. Elder shakes his head and recommits to kicking aplenty, with his body kick arguably his most effective weapon. He pushes Young away when Young advances, and Young jabs his way back towards him. Elder’s body kick finds its home again, and he pounds the front leg with his shin. Elder dips a jab to come over the top with a right hand, and he drills the side with a vicious kick. Young prods his jabs forward, but it is Elder who is the one swinging with bad intentions. Elder gets off a left hand and strafes to the side to not stay in front of jabs. Elder shoots for a takedown from a distance, and Young’s sprawl puts Elder on his back. Elder keeps moving, and he slithers back to his feet and blocks a kick aimed his way. Young’s overhand right is answered by a body kick, and he is turned around with a painful leg kick. Elder sits down on a trio of punches, with the exclamation point a body kick. Young flirts with a high kick that is way out of range, and he backs Elder to the fence but cannot capitalize on the position. Young walks his foe down but is missing with most of his strikes, while Elder is putting him through a slow-motion wood chipper with his kicks. Elder goes to the body and opens up with a right hand over the top, and Young responds with a stomp kick to the knee. Elder deposits a hearty low kick on the lead leg, and a body kick from his other limb concludes the second stanza.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elder

Round 3
The two Missourians hug it out to start off the final round, and they proceed to lovingly punch one another square in the face. Young steps back first, and he is chased with a jump knee that misses that mark. When Elder lands, he goes to the body on either side with his shins. Young offers a few awkward low kicks, and Elder ignores them and fires off a straight right hand down the pipe. Elder fakes a takedown to come up high, and Young chases after him but is not able to catch him. Elder flings a pair of high kicks that work the guard, and his low kick and body shot get Young’s attention. Young is tough, and he shows welting and redness everywhere but is not flinching much. Elder dips and lands a right hand, and when he dips a second time, Young picks up on it and tags him with a left hook. Elder opens up with kick after unanswered kick, with Young having to work through them to strike back with jabs to the midsection. Elder slams his shin on the side of Young’s liver, and Young is tough as a two-dollar steak and keeps pushing ever forward. Elder styles on his opponent with longer punches and kicks, and Young corners him against the fence but only manages to land once before getting pushed away. Elder goes high and then low with the same leg, and he snaps the head back with a left hand and connects on the front leg with his right shin. Young tries to time Elder’s ducks and movements with punches, and he catches Elder with a clean left hand that is one-and-done. Elder continues feed Young a steady diet of body kicks, and he slaps Young in the face with an open-handed left. Young rubs his face and has to block a head kick aimed at the same spot, and he pushes through to make Elder bounce off the wire. Elder walks directly into a knee, and Young pours it on with punches and a front kick as he has bloodied his foe’s nose up in the waning seconds. They give it all they have until time expires, and then embrace after 15 minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elder (30-27 Elder)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elder (30-27 Elder)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elder (30-27 Elder)

The Official Result
Evan Elder def. Gauge Young via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Big Brady picks Evan Elder, emphasizing his full camp, experience against better competition, and striking advantage. He notes Gauge Young is taking the fight on short notice and making his UFC debut, which favors Elder. He predicts a competitive decision win for Elder, though he feels the line is a bit wide.

fight goes to decision
"I'll take Elder to win this fight by decision, but I think it should be a fun fun and competitive fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Evan Elder

The host notes Young is slicker with hands but believes Elder's power and physicality will keep Young muzzled, leading to a decision win for Elder.

"I think Elder throws with enough power and I think he can mix in his physicality to really keep Young muzzled and I believe that will eventually lead to Elder winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder to win by TKO in the second or third round. He notes Elder's toughness, ability to come back from being hurt, and pressure fighting. He believes Gauge Young stepping in on short notice is a disadvantage, and Elder's grinding style will be too much. He references Elder's performance against Nazim Sadykhov.

TKO in rounds 2-3
"I'm going to go with Evan Elder getting this one done. Um, TKO in the second and third round. I think he'll finish this fight in the later two rounds."
CANCEL vs Ahmad Hassanzada
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo picks Evan Elder, noting that Ahmad Hassanzada is too hittable despite his length and speed. Elder is a well-rounded fighter with heavy kicks and solid punching combinations. The odds have moved from -300 to -415, reflecting confidence in Elder.

"Evan Elder is the pick."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 1:46 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Evan Elder 0 45 of 86 52% 61 of 104 0 of 1 0% 1 1 2:01
Darrius Flowers 0 24 of 60 40% 26 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Evan Elder 0 37 of 75 49% 48 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:24
Darrius Flowers 0 24 of 58 41% 25 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:06
2 Evan Elder 0 8 of 11 72% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:37
Darrius Flowers 0 0 of 2 0% 1 of 6 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Evan Elder 45 of 86 52% 17 of 51 27 of 33 1 of 2 29 of 60 3 of 5 13 of 21
Darrius Flowers 24 of 60 40% 12 of 37 5 of 13 7 of 10 21 of 56 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Evan Elder 37 of 75 49% 17 of 49 19 of 24 1 of 2 27 of 56 3 of 5 7 of 14
Darrius Flowers 24 of 58 41% 12 of 36 5 of 13 7 of 9 21 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Evan Elder 8 of 11 72% 0 of 2 8 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 7
Darrius Flowers 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Cody picks Elder, citing his striking advantage and Flowers' poor record. He notes Flowers' 1-10 boxing record and tendency to get knocked out. He believes Elder's power and takedown ability will lead to a finish.

"Sign me up for Evan Elder to get the job done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Evan Elder

Evan Elder is heavily favored and deservedly so. Darrius Flowers is not UFC-level talent. Elder will pressure, land big power punches, slow Flowers down, and finish him in the first or second round. His takedown defense is good enough to nullify Flowers' BJJ black belt, allowing Elder to control on the feet and get a knockout.

"Dar flowers in my opinion is not a UFC level talent and I believe Elder will showcase that as he pressures him puts big Power punches on him slows flowers down and then eventually finishes him in the first or …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Paul picks Elder, citing his superior striking and Flowers' lack of UFC success. He notes Flowers' short notice and poor wrestling defense. He expects Elder to win by knockout or decision.

"I'm going to go with Evan Elder."
WIN vs Genaro Valdez
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Evan Elder 1 96 of 195 49% 96 of 195 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:06
Genaro Valdez 1 64 of 236 27% 65 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Evan Elder 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Genaro Valdez 0 24 of 76 31% 25 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Evan Elder 1 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Genaro Valdez 1 22 of 80 27% 22 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Evan Elder 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
Genaro Valdez 0 18 of 80 22% 18 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Evan Elder 96 of 195 49% 61 of 155 15 of 19 20 of 21 96 of 193 0 of 1 0 of 1
Genaro Valdez 64 of 236 27% 51 of 210 4 of 6 9 of 20 62 of 231 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Evan Elder 25 of 50 50% 12 of 35 5 of 6 8 of 9 25 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Genaro Valdez 24 of 76 31% 22 of 69 1 of 2 1 of 5 23 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Evan Elder 37 of 67 55% 21 of 49 8 of 10 8 of 8 37 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Genaro Valdez 22 of 80 27% 16 of 70 1 of 2 5 of 8 22 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Evan Elder 34 of 78 43% 28 of 71 2 of 3 4 of 4 34 of 76 0 of 1 0 of 1
Genaro Valdez 18 of 80 22% 13 of 71 2 of 2 3 of 7 17 of 76 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo picks Evan Elder, believing he is slightly better everywhere except straight-up BJJ, but his submission defense is good enough to keep him out of trouble. He notes both fighters have back-to-back losses, but Elder should win. However, he calls anyone playing minus 275 crazy, saying there are better spots.

"Evan Elder is the pick but anybody playing minus 275 here is crazy you just hate money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Big Brady picks Evan Elder, expecting a wild brawl. He notes Valdez gets hurt frequently and has poor durability, while Elder is tougher and more durable. He predicts Elder will survive an early storm, hurt Valdez multiple times, and eventually finish him via TKO in the second round. He doesn't love the -300 price but thinks Elder's durability will be the difference.

Second round TKO
"I can see Evan Elder knocking down Valdez like five times eventually getting on top and finishing him via TKO so give me Evan Elder to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for Evan Elder"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Cody picks Elder, citing his power, durability, and improvement at 155. He thinks Elder will clip Valdez and put him away, as Valdez is defensively liable and gets hit frequently. He notes Elder's cut stoppage loss was not a knockout and he is hungry for his first UFC win. He expects a banger that ends in a knockout within two rounds.

fight of the night prop at wide odds
"I feel like Elders got a little more power a little more durability so I feel like at some point he's going to clip him and put him away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The host believes Elder is the better striker and has good durability to handle a war with Valdez. He expects Elder to mix in takedowns if needed and potentially get a TKO. He notes Elder's improvements at Kill Cliff FC and sees this as a great matchup for Elder to get his first UFC win.

"I'm fully on the Evan Elder train and I think that this is a spectacular matchup for him to go out there and put a bang and a statement on so that people start taking notice"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Paul picks Elder, agreeing it's a dangerous fight but noting Elder's durability and that his cut stoppage loss wasn't a knockout. He thinks both guys will stand and trade, and Elder has the advantage. He mentions a PrizePicks prop for over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder, as he expects a high-volume banger.

over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder on PrizePicks
"I'm with you I don't love the minus 300 but I do know at least with Evan Elder that I mean it was only it was a cut that kind of took him out of that fight not the fact …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder over Genaro Valdez, praising Elder's footwork, power, and toughness after a strong performance against Nazim Sadykhov. He criticizes Valdez's recent losses to Natan Levy and Matt Frevola, noting Valdez's plodding style and damage taken. He predicts Elder wins by decision or late TKO.

"I'm gonna go with an elder winning that one by decision or TKO later on"
LOSS vs Nazim Sadykhov
TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 0:38 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nazim Sadykhov 0 64 of 132 48% 71 of 141 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Evan Elder 1 70 of 142 49% 84 of 158 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nazim Sadykhov 0 28 of 74 37% 28 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Evan Elder 1 35 of 78 44% 36 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nazim Sadykhov 0 29 of 45 64% 36 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Evan Elder 0 32 of 53 60% 45 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
3 Nazim Sadykhov 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Evan Elder 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nazim Sadykhov 64 of 132 48% 38 of 103 19 of 20 7 of 9 54 of 118 10 of 14 0 of 0
Evan Elder 70 of 142 49% 25 of 87 36 of 46 9 of 9 60 of 129 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nazim Sadykhov 28 of 74 37% 15 of 58 8 of 9 5 of 7 26 of 68 2 of 6 0 of 0
Evan Elder 35 of 78 44% 16 of 55 15 of 19 4 of 4 34 of 75 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Nazim Sadykhov 29 of 45 64% 20 of 36 7 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 39 6 of 6 0 of 0
Evan Elder 32 of 53 60% 8 of 25 20 of 24 4 of 4 24 of 44 8 of 9 0 of 0
3 Nazim Sadykhov 7 of 13 53% 3 of 9 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
Evan Elder 3 of 11 27% 1 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo likes Evan Elder's well-rounded skills, loose striking, heavy kicks, and composure on the ground. He notes Elder's short-notice loss at welterweight should be discounted as he's a natural lightweight. Angelo is concerned about Sadykhov's tendency to throw unnecessary spinning attacks, which led to his only loss. He wishes he got Elder at +220 and notes the line is tightening, recommending to bet now.

Angelo said he would bet Elder if the line goes below +145, and after the stream he plans to place a bet.
"I like Evan here... I wish I got him at plus 220 I would have bet him at the plus 220."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Big Brady is impressed with Sadykhov's striking and ability to battle through adversity, noting he fights out of bad positions. He thinks Elder's takedown defense is poor based on his debut, and Sadykhov has wrestling of his own. He predicts a decision win, as Elder is tough and has a chin.

Sadykhov by decision
"I like sadikov fear I like staticon by decision I think Evan Elder's tough as Nails"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Cody picks Sadykhov, noting he has more firepower, hits harder, and has 15-minute cardio. He says Sadykhov trains at a good gym with Aljamain Sterling and others. He acknowledges Evan Elder is better than his UFC debut showed (short notice, up a weight class) but notes Elder gets hit a lot and is defensively poor. He thinks Sadykhov will have forward pressure and either catch him with something or mix in takedowns for a decision win. He says the line is repetitive on this card and he doesn't love it.

Cody mentions Sadykhov has a slight wrestling advantage. He says he'll take Sadykhov but doesn't love the -190.
"I will take nazim sadakov but what you're seeing is a repetitive seam on this card guys that are struggling to make weight guys that are fighting for the UFC for the very first time."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Sadykhov is a much better puncher and counter puncher than anyone Elder has faced. He notes Elder's vulnerability when stepping in without landing, and that Sadykhov can pressure through Elder's kicks and remain balanced to throw. Connor also points out that Elder's striking is entirely dependent on scaring opponents with kicks, but his punching form is wild and leaves him out of position. He concludes that Sadykhov is a reliable pick to win.

Sadykhov TKO +225, straight line -185 to -200, parlay potential
"So you got to take Sotikov here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Jacob is high on Evan Elder, calling him an absolute dog after his short-notice performance. He believes Elder is the better technical striker and has shown he can work through adversity. Jacob thinks Sadykhov will look good early but slow down, and Elder's pressure and wrestling will take over. He compares it to the Blake Bilder fight from last week where the odds tightened similarly.

"I got to go uh with Evan Elder as well I actually love him in this matchup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Elder is the better striker with more power and forward pressure, and his training at Kill Cliff FC should improve his cardio and takedown defense. Sadykhov's level of competition is weak, and his takedowns may not work against Elder's strength. Expect Elder to land a knockout in the second round.

Elder wins by KO in round 2
"I lean Elder ever so slightly... I think he comes through with a knockout Victory probably in the second round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Paul picks Sadykhov but is not willing to lay -200. He thought Sadykhov showed flashy striking on Contender Series and has promise, but he's not confident enough to parlay him. He notes there was steam on Elder earlier in the week but the line has corrected. He says Sadykhov is someone to keep an eye on but not someone to lay heavy chalk on in his UFC debut.

Paul mentions the line moved back toward -200 after early steam on Elder. He says he's not willing to parlay Sadykhov.
"I like satakov I was considering playing him because there was a bit of steam that came in on on Evan Elder a little bit earlier in the week and then now that's kind of like corrected itself."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

The MMA Guru picks Nazim Sadykhov, highlighting his training at Longo and Weidman's gym and his impressive win on the Contender Series against a 9-1 opponent. He contrasts that with Evan Elder's less dominant wins, including a third-round TKO of a 9-16 short-notice opponent. He believes Sadykhov has more talent and skill, predicting a TKO in the later rounds.

TKO in later rounds
"I've got to go with sadiekov not just because of his name however that is kind of a decent indication of how this fight's gonna go in my opinion"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Zane sees Sadykhov as a solid, raw prospect with good fundamental power punching and well-roundedness, including top position grappling. He notes Sadykhov's ability to scramble and his innovative striking, like the spinning back kick. Zane contrasts this with Elder, who he describes as a formless regional fighter dependent on heavy kicks to keep opponents at bay, with poor punching form and wrestling defense. He believes Sadykhov's camp (Serra-Longo) instills good technique, and that Sadykhov will be able to push through Elder's kicks and find success in the pocket.

Sadykhov TKO +225, straight line -185 to -200, parlay potential
"I think he's going to kind of paste Evan Elder."
LOSS vs Preston Parsons
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Preston Parsons 0 75 of 112 66% 121 of 160 4 of 6 66% 5 1 7:48
Evan Elder 0 27 of 60 45% 34 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 2 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Preston Parsons 0 16 of 28 57% 23 of 35 2 of 2 100% 2 0 2:16
Evan Elder 0 12 of 22 54% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Preston Parsons 0 16 of 25 64% 40 of 49 2 of 2 100% 2 1 2:55
Evan Elder 0 7 of 15 46% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:52
3 Preston Parsons 0 43 of 59 72% 58 of 76 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:37
Evan Elder 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Preston Parsons 75 of 112 66% 60 of 94 9 of 11 6 of 7 33 of 58 7 of 11 35 of 43
Evan Elder 27 of 60 45% 12 of 43 11 of 12 4 of 5 26 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Preston Parsons 16 of 28 57% 13 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2
Evan Elder 12 of 22 54% 5 of 15 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Preston Parsons 16 of 25 64% 12 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 2 7 of 8
Evan Elder 7 of 15 46% 3 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Preston Parsons 43 of 59 72% 35 of 49 5 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 20 5 of 6 26 of 33
Evan Elder 8 of 23 34% 4 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo picks Evan Elder (referred to as Luis Cose, but likely Evan Elder given the matchup). He likes Elder's power and pressure, and thinks Parsons' takedowns aren't good enough to be a constant threat. He sees it as a sprawl-and-brawl matchup where Elder can settle in and let his hands go. He notes Elder was dominating his last fight before gassing.

"i like kosei to win a sprawl and brawl match up here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Cody picks Elder, citing his striking and preparation for a grappler. He notes Parsons' one-dimensional grappling and tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Elder will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.

"the pick would be evan elder"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Evan Elder

The host picks Evan Elder in his quick picks list and includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds. He does not provide detailed reasoning for the pick.

Included in totals parlay under 1.5 rounds.
"evan elder"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Paul agrees, noting Elder's training at Sanford MMA and preparation for a wrestler. He thinks Elder's striking will be too much for Parsons. He suggests Elder should be around -185 favorite.

"i would say that evan elder would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a minus 185 minus 200 favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder (referred to as 'Louis Coskey' in transcript, likely a mispronunciation) over Preston Parsons. He describes Elder as explosive and dangerous early, noting his debut loss but good performance. He criticizes Parsons for being unimpressive and easily handled by Daniel Rodriguez. He predicts Elder will be more patient this time and get a first-round KO, citing power difference. He mentions Elder's recent KO loss but believes he will bounce back.

first round KO
"i am going to be going with louis coskey here a very explosive guy in the early rounds very dangerous in the early rounds"
Genaro Valdez - Fight History
LOSS vs Evan Elder
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Evan Elder 1 96 of 195 49% 96 of 195 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:06
Genaro Valdez 1 64 of 236 27% 65 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Evan Elder 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Genaro Valdez 0 24 of 76 31% 25 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Evan Elder 1 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Genaro Valdez 1 22 of 80 27% 22 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Evan Elder 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
Genaro Valdez 0 18 of 80 22% 18 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Evan Elder 96 of 195 49% 61 of 155 15 of 19 20 of 21 96 of 193 0 of 1 0 of 1
Genaro Valdez 64 of 236 27% 51 of 210 4 of 6 9 of 20 62 of 231 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Evan Elder 25 of 50 50% 12 of 35 5 of 6 8 of 9 25 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Genaro Valdez 24 of 76 31% 22 of 69 1 of 2 1 of 5 23 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Evan Elder 37 of 67 55% 21 of 49 8 of 10 8 of 8 37 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Genaro Valdez 22 of 80 27% 16 of 70 1 of 2 5 of 8 22 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Evan Elder 34 of 78 43% 28 of 71 2 of 3 4 of 4 34 of 76 0 of 1 0 of 1
Genaro Valdez 18 of 80 22% 13 of 71 2 of 2 3 of 7 17 of 76 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo picks Evan Elder, believing he is slightly better everywhere except straight-up BJJ, but his submission defense is good enough to keep him out of trouble. He notes both fighters have back-to-back losses, but Elder should win. However, he calls anyone playing minus 275 crazy, saying there are better spots.

"Evan Elder is the pick but anybody playing minus 275 here is crazy you just hate money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Big Brady picks Evan Elder, expecting a wild brawl. He notes Valdez gets hurt frequently and has poor durability, while Elder is tougher and more durable. He predicts Elder will survive an early storm, hurt Valdez multiple times, and eventually finish him via TKO in the second round. He doesn't love the -300 price but thinks Elder's durability will be the difference.

Second round TKO
"I can see Evan Elder knocking down Valdez like five times eventually getting on top and finishing him via TKO so give me Evan Elder to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for Evan Elder"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Cody picks Elder, citing his power, durability, and improvement at 155. He thinks Elder will clip Valdez and put him away, as Valdez is defensively liable and gets hit frequently. He notes Elder's cut stoppage loss was not a knockout and he is hungry for his first UFC win. He expects a banger that ends in a knockout within two rounds.

fight of the night prop at wide odds
"I feel like Elders got a little more power a little more durability so I feel like at some point he's going to clip him and put him away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The host believes Elder is the better striker and has good durability to handle a war with Valdez. He expects Elder to mix in takedowns if needed and potentially get a TKO. He notes Elder's improvements at Kill Cliff FC and sees this as a great matchup for Elder to get his first UFC win.

"I'm fully on the Evan Elder train and I think that this is a spectacular matchup for him to go out there and put a bang and a statement on so that people start taking notice"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Paul picks Elder, agreeing it's a dangerous fight but noting Elder's durability and that his cut stoppage loss wasn't a knockout. He thinks both guys will stand and trade, and Elder has the advantage. He mentions a PrizePicks prop for over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder, as he expects a high-volume banger.

over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder on PrizePicks
"I'm with you I don't love the minus 300 but I do know at least with Evan Elder that I mean it was only it was a cut that kind of took him out of that fight not the fact …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder over Genaro Valdez, praising Elder's footwork, power, and toughness after a strong performance against Nazim Sadykhov. He criticizes Valdez's recent losses to Natan Levy and Matt Frevola, noting Valdez's plodding style and damage taken. He predicts Elder wins by decision or late TKO.

"I'm gonna go with an elder winning that one by decision or TKO later on"
LOSS vs Natan Levy
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
LOSS vs Matt Frevola
KO/TKO R1 3:15 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo picks Evan Elder, believing he is slightly better everywhere except straight-up BJJ, but his submission defense is good enough to keep him out of trouble. He notes both fighters have back-to-back losses, but Elder should win. However, he calls anyone playing minus 275 crazy, saying there are better spots.

"Evan Elder is the pick but anybody playing minus 275 here is crazy you just hate money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Big Brady picks Evan Elder, expecting a wild brawl. He notes Valdez gets hurt frequently and has poor durability, while Elder is tougher and more durable. He predicts Elder will survive an early storm, hurt Valdez multiple times, and eventually finish him via TKO in the second round. He doesn't love the -300 price but thinks Elder's durability will be the difference.

Second round TKO
"I can see Evan Elder knocking down Valdez like five times eventually getting on top and finishing him via TKO so give me Evan Elder to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for Evan Elder"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Cody picks Elder, citing his power, durability, and improvement at 155. He thinks Elder will clip Valdez and put him away, as Valdez is defensively liable and gets hit frequently. He notes Elder's cut stoppage loss was not a knockout and he is hungry for his first UFC win. He expects a banger that ends in a knockout within two rounds.

fight of the night prop at wide odds
"I feel like Elders got a little more power a little more durability so I feel like at some point he's going to clip him and put him away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The host believes Elder is the better striker and has good durability to handle a war with Valdez. He expects Elder to mix in takedowns if needed and potentially get a TKO. He notes Elder's improvements at Kill Cliff FC and sees this as a great matchup for Elder to get his first UFC win.

"I'm fully on the Evan Elder train and I think that this is a spectacular matchup for him to go out there and put a bang and a statement on so that people start taking notice"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Paul picks Elder, agreeing it's a dangerous fight but noting Elder's durability and that his cut stoppage loss wasn't a knockout. He thinks both guys will stand and trade, and Elder has the advantage. He mentions a PrizePicks prop for over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder, as he expects a high-volume banger.

over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder on PrizePicks
"I'm with you I don't love the minus 300 but I do know at least with Evan Elder that I mean it was only it was a cut that kind of took him out of that fight not the fact that he got like knocked out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder over Genaro Valdez, praising Elder's footwork, power, and toughness after a strong performance against Nazim Sadykhov. He criticizes Valdez's recent losses to Natan Levy and Matt Frevola, noting Valdez's plodding style and damage taken. He predicts Elder wins by decision or late TKO.

"I'm gonna go with an elder winning that one by decision or TKO later on"