UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023 · Middleweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Roman Kopylov
4.59 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.18 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Punahele Soriano
4.42 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.97 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
48.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Roman Kopylov
Moneyline
FanDuel +132
KO/TKO
BetRivers +325
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
BetRivers +450
Punahele Soriano
Moneyline
Caesars -140
KO/TKO
BetRivers +185
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetWay +350
Roman Kopylov - Fight History
WIN vs Marco Tulio
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 3 61 of 124 49% 69 of 132 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:34
Marco Tulio 0 62 of 160 38% 80 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marco Tulio 0 22 of 61 36% 22 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 1 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Marco Tulio 0 26 of 57 45% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 2 24 of 41 58% 31 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Marco Tulio 0 14 of 42 33% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 61 of 124 49% 46 of 97 12 of 17 3 of 10 46 of 102 4 of 5 11 of 17
Marco Tulio 62 of 160 38% 28 of 105 18 of 34 16 of 21 62 of 159 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 15 of 39 38% 6 of 22 7 of 10 2 of 7 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marco Tulio 22 of 61 36% 7 of 37 8 of 14 7 of 10 22 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 22 of 44 50% 19 of 38 2 of 4 1 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 12
Marco Tulio 26 of 57 45% 11 of 37 7 of 11 8 of 9 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 24 of 41 58% 21 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 1 15 of 31 4 of 5 5 of 5
Marco Tulio 14 of 42 33% 10 of 31 3 of 9 1 of 2 14 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tulio (-198), Kopylov (+164)

Round 1
It is a battle between two finish-first middleweights to move things along, with the loser dropping to a .500 record with the organization. The victor between Kopylov (14-5, 6-5 UFC) and Tulio (14-2, 2-1 UFC) will earn their first win in over a year. Referee Gasper Oliver will be there every step of the way, including the sporting glove touch he watches to open things up.
Both men flirt with out-of-range strikes to get in on one another, and it is Tulio who lands first with a sweeping low kick. Kopylov walks him down but is not ready to engage yet, so Tulio jams him up with a body shot. Kopylov offers up his own calf kick, answered immediately by the Brazilian. Kopylov parries an overhand right and rips a kick to the ribs. Tulio jabs his way forward, following with one to the stomach and just evading an overhand right. Tulio chews up the front leg with kicks that form a welt on his foe’s front leg. Tulio keeps working the calf, and he keeps his hands up when Kopylov storms him with four punches that largely careen off his gloves and arms.
Tulio snaps the head back with a long right hand, and he reaches another to the body as Kopylov retreats. Kopylov comes up short with a high kick, and he lunges out with a left hand but is met with a stern right to the ribs. Tulio sneaks a head kick behind it, and Kopylov tanks it and plods forward. Kopylov retaliates with a body shot, but it is one-and-done as Tulio parries a high kick after it. Kopylov drives a one-two down the middle, one that might have knocked out small fry he faced in the past but is not nearly enough to get more than Tulio’s attention. Kopylov leaps with a knee, and Tulio pushes him to the side and belts him with a few punches before the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tulio

Round 2
They touch gloves to get going again, flashing their jabs in alternating stances. Kopylov drills Tulio with a check hook as Tulio is about to come in, and the Brazilian wears it well and is back to working the front leg before long. Kopylov lashes out with a one-two, seemingly getting the time of the advancing Brazilian and timing his explosions well. Tulio goes to the body and head, and Kopylov is quick to counter. Kopylov drills a kick to the side that lands with an audible thud, and hands are subsequently traded. Tulio kicks out the lead leg as Kopylov is about to throw, and he wings a head kick on the other side. Kopylov starts to leak from a wound on his right cheek, but he pays it no mind as he wants to throw hands. He slips on the way in, and dances away when Tulio spins but does not let anything go after it.
Tulio rifles off a right hand down Broadway, and his left hand opens up the cut on Kopylov’s face much more. There is another gash on Kopylov’s eyebrow, and he transforms to a horror movie as blood streams down his face. Tulio is able to take advantage of the damage and snaps out a hard right hand, but he walks directly into the inferno that is suddenly raging inside of Kopylov. Kopylov unleashes a pair of fiery fists that knock Tulio off his feet. Kopylov chases after the Brazilian, who is able to get back to his feet, and swings his way into a clinch. Rather than doing more damage or ending the fight, Kopylov just holds on until the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 3
The 185ers touch gloves to get going, and Kopylov goes hellbent for leather as soon as Oliver says go. Blasting Tulio in the face with a short but devastating combination, he hurts and knocks the Brazilian down at the end of a vicious left hand early on. As he plans on punishing Tulio further, Kopylov elects to take the fight down. Completing a solid double-leg takedown, Kopylov grounds Tulio, but he just holds him there again. Tulio slowly, methodically works back to his feet without absorbing much more offense, and he starts to stalk Kopylov again.
Tulio jabs at the wound on Kopylov’s face, planting a kick on his ribs and eating a left hand over the top for his effort. Kopylov stands firm when Tulio engages, forcing the Brazilian to backpedal after a trio of punches come flying. Tulio jabs the stomach with the ball of his foot outstretched, and his head kick comes up just short. They trade hands, with Kopylov getting the better of the exchanges. Tulio spins to let go with a back kick, and Kopylov keeps him honest with a body kick and head kick. Tulio swings his fists to turn into a back fist, and he slugs Kopylov in the face with a big overhand right but cannot put him down as the buzzer sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Marco Tulio via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, noting he is more well-rounded and can wrestle if needed. He thinks Tulio will shoot takedowns after being knocked out in his last fight. He mentions Tulio's grappling success against Yorsy Baraguri. He has doubts about Tulio's chin but expects him to use wrestling to avoid striking exchanges. He is fairly confident in this pick.

"Marco is going to be the pick. And I'm actually fairly confident in that."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio because he has more ways to win, including grappling. He notes that Tulio has good wrestling and can take the fight to the ground if needed, while Roman Kopylov has no backup plan. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a good striker but believes Tulio's versatility will be the difference.

"Marco's going to be the pick. He has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Big Brady picks Marco Tulio, noting Kopylov's recent lack of output and willingness. He acknowledges Kopylov could knock out Tulio, but trusts Tulio's volume and grappling upside. Brady predicts Tulio wins by decision, as Kopylov is tough and has never been knocked out, but Tulio should outwork him.

"I'm going Tulio here. I'm actually going to go Tulio by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Cody picks Tulio, citing his volume and Kopylov's tendency to be outworked. He notes Tulio's high output and Kopylov's complacency. Cody expects Tulio to win by decision.

"I got Tulio. Tulio's got good volume."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor also picks Kopylov, agreeing that Tulio lacks the sophistication to exploit Kopylov's weaknesses. He notes that the guys who beat Kopylov (Rodriguez, Costa) did so with diligent positional work, which Tulio doesn't have. Connor expects Tulio to look like he's winning for stretches, but Kopylov's power and counter-striking will eventually pay off.

Tulio opened at +190, now -190; Kopylov opened at -225, now +165.
"I don't think Tulio has the sophistication for it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marco Tulio

Daniel picks Tulio, noting his confidence and edge on the mat despite a recent knockout loss. He believes Tulio will stand and bang and has a big advantage if he gets the fight to the ground.

"I'mma come in on uh Marco Tulio. Listen, I know he's coming off a knockout loss, but he seems to me like one of these guys that is going to stand and bang until the day he dies. He's not …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Marco Tulio

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Tulio is a powerful striker (6.69 SLpM, 58% accuracy) with KO wins in two of his three UFC fights, while Kopylov has lost three of his last four and has been knocked out multiple times. Kopylov's takedown defense (88%) is excellent, but he tends to fade in striking exchanges (5.18 SApM). Tulio's pressure and power should be too much for Kopylov, who has a tendency to get hit. Expect Tulio to land a knockout in the first two rounds.

Tulio by KO/TKO +200
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Jacob disagrees strongly, arguing that Kopylov is the better wrestler and that Marco Tulio cannot wrestle him. He points out that Gregory Rodriguez, a high-level wrestler, struggled to take Kopylov down. Jacob believes Kopylov is the more dangerous striker and durable, and that he should be the favorite. He likes the value on Kopylov as a dog.

"I love roping copy in this spot. Like I think he probably should be the favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Lucrative James leans towards Marco Tulio because he believes Tulio has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He notes that Kopylov has a history of low volume and gassing out, while Tulio mixes in wrestling and has more paths to victory. He predicts Tulio wins by knockout, though he acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way.

"I will pick Marco Tulio to win the fight. ... I'll predict him to win it via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host picks Kopylov as an underdog, believing he is the better striker and has the grappling to handle Tulio. He notes that Tulio is overhyped and hittable, and coming off a knockout loss may affect his confidence. He expects Kopylov to counter Tulio's forward pressure and potentially get a knockout. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent losses but sees this as a favorable matchup.

"I'm going to go Copelov. I think Copelov pulls off the upset and I think he even gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Paul leans Tulio but does not love laying chalk. He agrees with Cody's assessment but is not fully confident.

"That's kind of my thought, but don't necessarily love laying chalk on Tulio this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

The MMA Guru picks Marco Tulio, citing Kopylov's recent poor performances against Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodriguez where he shut down after getting hit. He believes Tulio's pressure and momentum will lead to a TKO in round two. He notes Tulio's wins over Tong Gore and Usman Belgui show his finishing ability.

TKO win in round two
"I'm going to go with Marco to Leo getting a TKO win here in round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane picks Kopylov hesitantly. He notes that Kopylov has become a better counter striker and has shown he can solve pressure fighters, as seen in the Curtis fight. However, Kopylov is terrible going backwards and could struggle if Tulio pressures effectively. Zane thinks Tulio's predictability and lack of sophistication will allow Kopylov to find openings, but it's a tough call.

Tulio opened at +190, now -190; Kopylov opened at -225, now +165. Odds shifting due to Kopylov's recent losses.
"I guess I'll take Kopylov."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 52 of 105 49% 54 of 109 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:35
Gregory Rodrigues 0 90 of 173 52% 91 of 174 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Gregory Rodrigues 0 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 70 52% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
3 Roman Kopylov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 52 of 105 49% 35 of 80 9 of 16 8 of 9 51 of 103 1 of 1 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 90 of 173 52% 59 of 133 28 of 37 3 of 3 84 of 164 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 9 of 16 56% 2 of 5 2 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 20 of 35 57% 12 of 25 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 23 of 36 63% 20 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 70 52% 26 of 55 10 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 62 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 20 of 53 37% 13 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 33 of 68 48% 21 of 53 11 of 14 1 of 1 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)

The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.

"I think Gregory Rodriguez makes this a very tricky fight for Roman Copilov... I do think Gregory wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.

first round submission
"I'm going to go Rodriguez first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.

"I like Robocop Rodrigues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.

Odds: Kopylov opened -110, currently +165. Connor says 'it's a coin flip for me'.
"I think just to keep it interesting, I'll take Kapilov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.

"I do favor Hoboc in this one, man. I think he's got more ways to win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.

by KO
"Roman Copilov wins this fight. Brutal knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.

knockout
"I think Hodriguez will do exactly what Paulo Costa did. Walk Copilov down, throw big shots, get his respect, and I think this time actually Rodriguez can close the show and win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"if G Rod is controlling you and he's forcing the issue, well, you know what's even more tiring than trying to hold somebody down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez backing up Roman Copilov and finishing him in round one or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.

Odds: Rodrigues opened -110, currently -190. Kopylov opened -110, jumped to +135, currently +165.
"I got to take Rodriguez in that fight, you know?"
LOSS vs Paulo Costa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 1 99 of 159 62% 102 of 162 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 48 of 104 46% 48 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 1 34 of 54 62% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Roman Kopylov 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Paulo Costa 0 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Paulo Costa 0 33 of 48 68% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Roman Kopylov 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 99 of 159 62% 34 of 89 41 of 46 24 of 24 87 of 141 3 of 3 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 48 of 104 46% 29 of 79 14 of 20 5 of 5 48 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 34 of 54 62% 13 of 33 7 of 7 14 of 14 25 of 39 0 of 0 9 of 15
Roman Kopylov 11 of 27 40% 5 of 18 3 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 32 of 57 56% 10 of 31 18 of 22 4 of 4 31 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 5 of 8 2 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 33 of 48 68% 11 of 25 16 of 17 6 of 6 31 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Kopylov 21 of 45 46% 15 of 39 6 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)

Round 1
Without a win since 2022, and no knockout victories in over seven years, Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC) is back in the Octagon after a while away planning on getting a little more green on his ledger. Standing in his way will be fellow knockout artist Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC), with the heavy-hitting middleweights combining for 23 strike stoppages in their 28 pro wins. Referee Herb Dean will don his proverbial hard hat and try to avoid any errant swings. The fighters do not touch gloves.
Costa wants to party immediately, surging into action with punches and kicks to put the Russian on his back foot. Kopylov responds with a left hand that reddens the face of his opponent, and he gets caught with a right hand to sustain a little damage on his mug as well. Costa scores a kick to the inner thigh, bouncing in and out and just brushing the ear with a right hand. “Borrachinha” whips a kick to the ribs after it, and the two men catch one another with single punches. Kopylov recovers first, bouncing in to kick Costa in the stomach. He then kicks the calf, checking one coming back his direction. Costa jabs and opens up with a left hook, with his right hand chambered back ready to go.
Costa works the inside and outside of his foe’s front leg, and Kopylov times one kick to go upstairs with a left hand. Costa drives a right hand to the sternum, and his head kick shakes the hair of the Russian without causing much damage otherwise. He does hammer Kopylov’s front leg with another calf kick, and he goes on the other side to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov drills the midsection with a fierce kick, parrying a high kick aimed at his dome and pushing Costa back with a pair of punches. Costa goes to the body multiple times, chaining a right hand behind it that dislodges Kopylov’s mouthpiece and dropping him to his knees. Costa hammers the hurt Russian with short but powerful punches, and Kopylov stands up and circles away while Dean collects his mouthpiece. Dean finds the right moment to give Kopylov his gumshield back, and Kopylov thanks him by landing once more on the Brazilian before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
As the second round begins, coach and commentator Din Thomas issues pungent criticisms towards Kopylov’s corner for their questionable advice about how Kopylov was succeeding. When the fighters get going in Round 2, Costa is quick to get in his groove, making Kopylov react every time he throws. This frees Costa up to pick his shots, measuring targets to the body and head when finding openings. The power of Costa makes Kopylov think twice about swinging more than once in a row, as he digs two kicks to the body. Costa rifles a right hand down the middle, walking the Russian down to club him a few more times.
Costa dips and rips an uppercut that catches Kopylov off-guard, but it is his straight right hand that damages Kopylov. Costa blasts the body with a kick, not selling out to force a finish as his power strikes are breaking Kopylov down. Costa goes from body shots to big right hands, and Kopylov is stuck not knowing what to do. He briefly presents in a traditional martial arts stance with his elbow high, but Costa pushes that out of the way. Kopylov thanks him for this with a snappy jab, but it is a single shot as Costa evades anything else. Costa picks and pokes with the most painful seeming jabs and front kicks one can imagine, as his teep kick actually lifts Kopylov off the ground once. He chops down the leg a bit more like a lumberjack, and his body work opens up big rights. Kopylov takes body shots on his way in, breaking up what he wants to do other than a reverse crescent kick. Costa marches through the kicks and punches the Russian square in the face. The round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Costa marches out to the center of the Octagon to further establish dominance, hammering his Russian adversary’s front with a few kicks. Kopylov splits the guard when leaping in, but Costa is able to back off and wail on him with kicks to any target. Kopylov catches Costa off-balance with another blitz, only for Costa to rebound off the wire and jump forward to clip Kopylov again. The two hand-fight while in opposing stances, with Kopylov kicking the ribs and punching high as Costa appears to be slowing. “Borrachinha” attacks the body and counters a rushing Kopylov with a right hand, and he points at the Russian after tagging him. Costa loads up with a right to the body and then a right to the head. Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a massive right hand that stings Costa, but Costa wags his finger at him.
The mere wag of his finger dissuades Kopylov from diving in to keep attacking, allowing Costa to shake off any cobwebs and launch additional right hands to the busted nose and swollen midsection. Kopylov rifles a left hand up top, standing straight up and eating a low kick. He goes after the Brazilian, lobbing short combos in punches as Costa sticks his tongue out at him. This encourages Kopylov to throw more, only to get caught and backed off by body shots from Costa. The former title challenger shoots for a single, bailing on it and trying a second time so he can knee Kopylov in the liver. Kopylov springs forward behind a crisp right hand, only to slow down right in front of Costa and take right hands on the eye socket. Kopylov swings hard, and Costa rushes towards him to get a clinch. When he lets it go, he strikes the body and staggers Kopylov with a massive overhand right. The Russian is tough as old beef jerky, who bounces back and goes for broke as the fight concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)

The Official Result
Paulo Costa def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.

"Roman's going to be the pick quite literally because I don't think Paula is going to use all of his tools."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.

Kopylov by late finish or decision
"I'm taking Copilov here. I'll take Copilov to either get a late finish or win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.

"I got to pick Roman Kopylov. 100%."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.

"In terms of a prediction, I expect him to win. And I expect him to point out point Costa utilizing some grappling and striking to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.

Paulo Costa lands less than 63.5 significant strikes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going with Roman Copilov over Paulo Costa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.

"I just don't trust Costa to show up the right way for Kopylov."
WIN vs Chris Curtis
TKO (head kick) R3 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 142 of 261 54% 146 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 130 of 307 42% 133 of 310 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 110 43% 48 of 110 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 104 55% 59 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 38 of 96 39% 38 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 74 56% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 44 of 101 43% 47 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 142 of 261 54% 107 of 204 30 of 52 5 of 5 142 of 261 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 130 of 307 42% 91 of 266 14 of 16 25 of 25 124 of 300 4 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 42 of 83 50% 32 of 62 8 of 19 2 of 2 42 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 48 of 110 43% 33 of 93 6 of 8 9 of 9 46 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 58 of 104 55% 42 of 78 14 of 24 2 of 2 58 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 38 of 96 39% 25 of 83 3 of 3 10 of 10 38 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 42 of 74 56% 33 of 64 8 of 9 1 of 1 42 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 44 of 101 43% 33 of 90 5 of 5 6 of 6 40 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov

Round 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.

"Roman kopilov is the better Striker so Roman kopilov has to be the pick it's that simple Striker versus Striker I'm going with the better Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.

"I like kopov here I think kopov probably wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.

"sign me up for action man he this might be our last big cash on action man you know but uh I'm here for it dude I'm absolutely here for it so plus 210 sign me up for Chris Curtis"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.

"So I got to pick Koppelov here, I just, yeah, I'm my inclination is to pick Koppelov as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.

"I think Roman kopov is going to come out here and pick him apart but it could get sketchy late second round late third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.

"I think Roman copy love has all the tools to win in this one if he doesn't get caught with a big shot in the middle of the Octagon tradeing I think that he's going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.

by knockout
"I still have to lean with copil love as I think he's a superior Striker and has enough sting on his shots to be the second person to finish Chris Curtis by knockout and 43 professional fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.

"I'm flipping my pick we all go down together with the action man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.

"I'm going Roman copy love to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.

"But I am also going to take Koppelov because much as I love him and respect him. I do not trust Chris Curtis."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 105 55% 114 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 1 41 of 71 57% 74 of 114 5 of 9 55% 0 0 8:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 23 of 42 54% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 1 18 of 31 58% 23 of 36 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
2 Roman Kopylov 0 20 of 36 55% 52 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 0 9 of 19 47% 17 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:58
3 Roman Kopylov 0 15 of 27 55% 34 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
César Almeida 0 14 of 21 66% 34 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 58 of 105 55% 18 of 52 24 of 30 16 of 23 51 of 97 6 of 6 1 of 2
César Almeida 41 of 71 57% 34 of 63 5 of 6 2 of 2 32 of 61 0 of 0 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 23 of 42 54% 4 of 15 7 of 10 12 of 17 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
César Almeida 18 of 31 58% 13 of 26 4 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 24 0 of 0 6 of 7
2 Roman Kopylov 20 of 36 55% 7 of 19 11 of 13 2 of 4 16 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 1
César Almeida 9 of 19 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 15 of 27 55% 7 of 18 6 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 1
César Almeida 14 of 21 66% 13 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-112), Kopylov (-108)

Round 1
A pair of knockout artists grace the cage for the preliminary headliner, with Almeida (5-0, 1-0 UFC) and Kopylov (12-3, 4-3 UFC) tallying 15 knockouts opposite zero submissions on their respective ledgers. Referee Herb Dean steels himself for what’s about to come next. Before going all-out, the two middleweight strikers bump fists. Kopylov lands one kick, and Almeida answers with five of his own. Almeida goes after a head kick, and Kopylov lines up a right to the body and left to the head. Almeida pays it no mind and looks to set up a step-in knee when Kopylov comes after him. Almeida slams his shin on the inside and outside of Kopylov’s front leg, and he slips away from a jab. Almeida lands a low kick, and Kopylov catches the kick and trips the Brazilian up to put him down on the ground. Kopylov backs off instead of climbing into top position, and he retreats when a few big kicks fly at him. The threat of the takedown opens up a massive left hand for the Russian, who hurts Almeida badly but does not take advantage of it. Almeida resets, and the two proceed to fire off heavy blows. Almeida scores a body kick, and Kopylov shoots in for a takedown and plants the kickboxer on his back. Almeida wall-walks his way up, and Kopylov measures him to blast him with two right hands before Almeida stands back up. Almeida goes to the body, and he wipes his eye after taking a straight left hand. Kopylov takes advantage of body kick by busting Almeida in the chops with a straight left, sending Almeida crashing to the canvas. Kopylov backs away to let his man up, and he skirts away from two kicks and shoots for a takedown to take Almeida off his feet. Kopylov lands the double and puts himself in side control, keeping tight chest pressure to pin “Cesinha” down. Almeida gets the guard back and is warned for punches to the back of the head. Kopylov rides out the rest of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights double bump fists, and Almeida reintroduces himself with two body kicks. The second lands, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Almeida digs the body with two push kicks, and he turns his hips into a body kick. Almeida walks Kopylov down and kicks his lead leg, only to get countered with a powerful right hook. Almeida ducks a punch to jab the body, and his subsequent head kick glances off the shoulder. Almeida loops a left hand around the guard, and two more punches land before Kopylov shoots in for a takedown. Almeida stifles him and digs a left to the liver, and he connects with a few more punches and retreats when Kopylov measures him with a one-two. Kopylov rushes forward to take the fight down, and Almeida leans his back against the wall and slides his arm beneath the chin with a guillotine choke. From this position, the Brazilian knees Kopylov in the chest a few times. Almeida escapes, and they jab at one another. Fists fly, and Kopylov catches his man with a right hand. Almeida fires off a head kick, and he lands a body shot and chains it into a knee from up close before pushing Kopylov away. Almeida kicks the ribs, and Kopylov sweeps him off his feet and dumps him on the mat. Kopylov retains top control in half guard, keeping Almeida stuck on his back and pushing him over when Almeida sits up. Almeida kicks the side with his heel from off his back, and Dean asks for Kopylov to do more as Kopylov is just grinding. Kopylov stays tightly pressed on his foe’s chest, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bow to one another before engaging in the final frame. Almeida strikes first, with a front kick and a body kick. Kopylov doubles up a jab and lets go with a head kick, but Almeida pushes through it swinging his mighty fists. Kopylov ducks into a right hand and he wobbles back, and Almeida takes advantage of it by planting a knee on the forehead and a right hand on the way out. Almeida lines up another right hand, and as he rushes forward to throw more, Kopylov tackles him to the floor. Kopylov climbs into the open guard of his foe, and it only takes a few seconds of inaction for Dean to clap for more activity. Dean asks a second time, and Kopylov does not oblige him. Almeida closes his guard around the waist, and Dean calls for action a third time. Kopylov gets off a left hand over the top, and there have now been four claps from Dean to improve his position or do some damage. Almeida hangs on tight, and Kopylov lands two punches after Dean claps a fifth time while saying “work.” Kopylov does just enough to keep going, and chants boom in the area to “stand them up.” Commentator Joe Rogan joins them momentarily in those calls. Kopylov stays doing nothing, and Dean finally stands them up with 90 seconds to spare as the crowd is thrilled by him. Almeida thanks him with a blitz of fists, and he cracks the Russian with a combination. To take all the wind out of his sails, Kopylov rushes ahead and take Almeida down to the ground easy as can be. Almeida kicks him off, forcing Kopylov upright again, and Dean tells Kopylov to do something rather than lord over him slapping with occasional kicks. Kopylov drops down into side control, and he clings to the Brazilian until the prolonged endeavor draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Cesar Almeida via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov because although César Almeida is the better pure kickboxer, Kopylov has shown he can shoot takedowns and has good takedown defense. He believes the MMA aspect, specifically Kopylov's ability to mix in wrestling, will be the difference. He notes Almeida's takedown defense in the center of the cage is poor.

"I got to go Roman copy love Roman copy love is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady is targeting this fight heavily, expecting both guys to stand and bang with power. He thinks Roman Kopylov will be lower owned and may implement a wrestling-heavy game plan for takedown upside. He sees either guy live for a knockout. He also likes César Almeida but notes he will be very popular.

Roman Kopylov wins by knockout or decision, César Almeida wins by knockout
"Roman kopilov is most certainly going to be the lower owned guy here he's now the underdog at a favorite price tag"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody picks Kopylov, arguing he can mix in wrestling to neutralize Almeida's kickboxing. He notes Kopylov has trained wrestling in Dagestan and has shown takedown defense. Cody believes Kopylov can take Almeida down and grind him out, or catch him overextending. He acknowledges Almeida's kickboxing credentials but thinks Kopylov's MMA skills will prevail. He takes a shoey bet on Kopylov.

"I got to go with Kopylov... he's presented with a 36-year-old guy who's a good kickboxer but can't wrestle... why not take him down?"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
César Almeida

Daniel flips a coin to decide, acknowledging both are good strikers. He notes Almeida's elite kickboxing credentials but questions the transition to MMA. He says it's a pick'em and goes with Almeida due to the coin flip.

"I don't have a pick but since I flipped the coin and it landed on Almeida you know for your records you can say I'm picking Almeida"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
César Almeida

The host is impressed with Almeida's defensive grappling and striking, predicting he will outwork Kopylov. Almeida's ability to get back to his feet and his superior striking should wear down Kopylov, who has cardio issues. Even if Kopylov tries to grapple, Almeida's defensive skills will nullify him, leading to a knockout for Almeida.

knockout
"I do like Almeida here and I do like him to go out there and get that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
César Almeida

Paul picks Almeida, citing his world-class kickboxing and win over Alex Pereira (though long ago). He notes Almeida is working on his MMA skills and believes if it's a striking match, Almeida has the edge. Paul took Almeida at plus 120 earlier and likes the line movement. He acknowledges Almeida is 36 but thinks his standup is on point.

"I'll take the guy with the win with the kickboxing win over Alex Pereira... his standup is on point."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov, stating that César Almeida hasn't finished anyone legit and that his striking is not elite. He believes Kopylov is more proven in the UFC and will work into the fight, possibly mixing in grappling. He predicts Kopylov by decision, possibly finishing later rounds.

"I'm going to go with Roman copy love more experienced understands the spotlight of a pay-per-view a little bit better"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:23 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 34 of 77 44% 39 of 82 3 of 14 21% 2 0 4:05
Roman Kopylov 0 35 of 57 61% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 20 of 42 47% 23 of 45 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:05
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 29 55% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 35 40% 16 of 37 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:00
Roman Kopylov 0 19 of 28 67% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 34 of 77 44% 28 of 68 4 of 6 2 of 3 24 of 65 8 of 10 2 of 2
Roman Kopylov 35 of 57 61% 21 of 43 8 of 8 6 of 6 34 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 20 of 42 47% 16 of 35 3 of 5 1 of 2 13 of 35 6 of 6 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 14 of 35 40% 12 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 19 of 28 67% 13 of 22 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)

Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

under 2.5 rounds (potential)
"I'm going to pick Roman kopilov he's got good takedown defense hopefully his get up game has improved a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.

Hernandez by submission, round 2, anaconda choke
"give me Anthony Hernandez to win this fight by second round submission and I think it's going to be an anaconda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.

"I guess I would lean towards a dog shot on kopov but but yeah it really comes down it's like is Fluffy going to be able to get those takedowns early and often and I wouldn't be surprised if he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lock picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.

"I think this is a slam dunk... I think that the true price of this fight might sound crazy, I think fluffy Hernandez should be a minus 350 minus 400 favorite here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.

"I'll have to lean Hernandez here getting a third round submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.

"for me the pck is Fluffy Hernandez all right."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.

"I'm going Anthony Hernandez over Roman Kopylov... I think he'll be able to outgrapple him and I love his grappling."
WIN vs Josh Fremd
KO (punch to the body) R2 4:44 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 1 49 of 84 58% 54 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Josh Fremd 0 38 of 116 32% 38 of 116 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 27 of 41 65% 28 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Fremd 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
2 Roman Kopylov 1 22 of 43 51% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Josh Fremd 0 16 of 58 27% 16 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 49 of 84 58% 23 of 56 9 of 10 17 of 18 47 of 80 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Fremd 38 of 116 32% 18 of 81 8 of 13 12 of 22 37 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 27 of 41 65% 8 of 22 5 of 5 14 of 14 25 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Fremd 22 of 58 37% 5 of 37 6 of 7 11 of 14 21 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 22 of 43 51% 15 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 4 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Fremd 16 of 58 27% 13 of 44 2 of 6 1 of 8 16 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Fremd vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-355), Fremd (+280)

Round 1
Middleweights are next on the docket, as Kopylov (11-2, 3-2 UFC) tries to make it four wins in a row at 185 pounds. A Factory X representative, Fremd (11-4, 2-2 UFC) headlined multiple Legacy Fighting Alliance events prior to his signing with the UFC in 2022. Mark Smith answers the call as the third man in the cage. Fremd pumps out his jab from the start, eats a few leg kicks and scores with some shin to skin contact to the body. Kopylov continues to target the lead leg with kicks and seems content to allow the fight to come to him. A low blow from Fremd results in a brief pause before they resume their dance in the center of the cage. Fremd sneaks in front kick to the body and backs up the Russian with a multi-strike burst of hands and feet. Kopylov connects with a surgical two-punch combination. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the pocket. Fremd shoots on a single-leg but gets nowhere. Kopylov breaks away with punches, takes the center of the cage and uncorks his educated hands. He follows them with a kick to the body. Momentum is starting to turn here. Fremd shoots on another takedown attempt with 20 seconds left, only to get denied. Kopylov lands with a spinning backfist and an uppercut to close the round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
Kopylov drives a left hand into the body, follows with an uppercut and goes back upstairs with his hands, knocking Fremd off-balance. Fremd paws with his jab and whiffs on a takedown, then eats a head kick. Damage has started to build on his face and his body. Kopylov denies a single-leg takedown, pushes away the American. Fremd’s mouth is wide open, likely due to difficulty breathing through a bloody nose. Kopylov picks his shots but catches another kick low. Smith pauses the action and issues another warning. Kopylov goes to the body and head with a beautiful combination. He backs away and narrowly misses a lunging right uppercut. A savage kick to the body forces Fremd to drop his hands. Kopylov wisely follows with a head kick.
A left hook to the liver drops Fremd to all fours and results in an immediate stoppage
.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Josh Fremd—KO (Punch to the Body) 4:44 R2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo is very confident in Roman Kopylov, calling him the best value on the card at -275. He highlights Kopylov's high-level kickboxing and improved takedown defense. He dismisses Josh Fremd's grappling threat, noting Fremd struggled to take down Jamie Pickett. He believes Kopylov's striking is next level and Fremd cannot hang on the feet.

"Roman copy love is the best value on this card what's Josh gonna do take him down he struggled to take down Jamie Pickett"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady likes Kopylov to win, citing his improved striking, durability, and body work. He notes Kopylov has been training in Dagestan to improve his wrestling and has looked better each fight. He expects Kopylov to stuff takedowns, break Fremd down with body shots, and finish him in the second or third round. He is less confident at the current minus 400 odds but still picks the win.

second round knockout
"I like copy love here I like copy love to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody picks Kopylov confidently, detailing his improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He notes Kopylov's durability, power, and recent finishes. He is concerned about Fremd's cardio and wrestling but believes Kopylov will win, possibly by knockout.

"kopov is definitely the pick I will be betting it but just how much exposure do you really want on it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel Levi picks Roman Kopylov but is not interested at the current odds of minus-410, as the line opened at minus-140. He praises Kopylov's clean hands, precise striking, and improved takedown defense, but notes that Josh Fremd has not yet shown his regional form in the UFC. Levi believes Kopylov will win but considers it a dog-or-pass situation at these prices.

opened minus-140, now minus-410; says 'dog or pass' at current price
"my pick is going to be Roman but I'm not interested at these odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Fremd is a Factory X product with improving grappling, cage pushing, and submission threats. Kopylov has cardio issues and has been slowing down in fights. Fremd should close the distance, wear on Kopylov with takedowns and clinch work, and potentially get a second or third round finish. I like the decision prop or a late finish for Fremd at plus 240.

decision prop
"I think that friend does a better job in terms of closing the distance and not making his uh wrestling attempts or shot attempts as obvious... look for from to utilize his range striking try to close a distance where …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Paul picks Kopylov but notes the minus 405 line is too high to bet. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent improvements in takedown defense and striking, and sees him as the clear winner. He mentions Fremd's recent weight miss and poor performance against Jamie Pickett.

"copala will be the pick but I won't be betting it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Josh Fremd, stating Kopylov is at a different class. He praises Kopylov's recent performances, including a head kick KO of Claudio Ribeiro, and believes he has improved his wrestling. He criticizes Fremd's lack of power and ability to win a gritty fight. He predicts a late second or third round TKO for Kopylov.

TKO win
"I'm gonna go with Roman copy love here I think he's just at a different class to Josh friend"
KO/TKO R2 0:33 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Punahele Soriano - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 38 of 67 56% 43 of 73 3 of 11 27% 0 0 3:48
Punahele Soriano 0 40 of 92 43% 66 of 123 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 31 of 56 55% 31 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Punahele Soriano 0 17 of 52 32% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 5 of 7 71% 10 of 12 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:47
Punahele Soriano 0 7 of 12 58% 26 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:35
3 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 5 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:59
Punahele Soriano 0 16 of 28 57% 19 of 32 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 38 of 67 56% 16 of 42 21 of 24 1 of 1 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 40 of 92 43% 29 of 79 11 of 13 0 of 0 25 of 74 14 of 15 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 31 of 56 55% 13 of 37 17 of 18 1 of 1 30 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 17 of 52 32% 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Ramiz Brahimaj 5 of 7 71% 2 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 1
3 Ramiz Brahimaj 2 of 4 50% 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 16 of 28 57% 13 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 19 7 of 8 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing his power, wrestling credentials, and ability to stay safe on top. He acknowledges Ramiz Brahimaj's submission threat but believes Soriano's wrestling and striking will prevail. He notes the line has flipped but remains confident in Soriano.

Mentions if the line continues to widen, he will place a bet on Soriano.
"Punahele is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Big Brady picks Ramiz Brahimaj to defeat Punahele Soriano, citing Brahimaj's recent underdog wins and Soriano's poor takedown defense and cardio. He notes Soriano has success early but fades, and Brahimaj is tough and has good submissions. He predicts Brahimaj will survive the early storm, mix in takedowns, and submit Soriano in the second round. He references Soriano's losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov as evidence of his vulnerability.

Ramiz Brahimaj by second-round submission; underdog win
"I'm going to go Ramiz Brahimaj to win this fight and I think he might cash as an underdog for the fourth time in a row. Give me Ramiz Brahimaj by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Cody thinks Brahimaj's jiu-jitsu and hometown crowd give him an edge. He notes Soriano's inconsistency and cardio issues. He expects Brahimaj to win by submission or decision.

"Brahimai in Texas seems like it's interesting enough for me to maybe go out there and pull something off."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano. He notes that Soriano's recent wins are more trustworthy and indicative of a step forward, while Brahimaj's wins are against fighters with no defense. Connor also mentions that if Court McGee could grind Brahimaj, Soriano can too.

"I think soryano's recent wins are much more trustworthy of an indicative of a step forward than brahimi"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The host leans towards Soriano, noting his advantage on the feet with power and aggression, and his improved cardio since dropping to welterweight. He believes Soriano can outstrike and outgrapple Brahimaj if his gas tank holds up. However, he is not betting because Brahimaj has proven cardio and could make Soriano work hard, and both fighters are evolving, making it difficult to predict which version shows up.

Soriano's cardio improvement at welterweight; Brahimaj's cardio and takedown defense issues
"Heavily leaned towards Soraniano here. He's a very very tempting bet for me. But Brahim can make Sorano work hard in ways neither Veriteneov nor Miguel Baser could."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

James picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and front choke series. He notes that Soriano's wrestling could put him in danger of submissions, and that Brahimaj is the better striker over 15 minutes. James believes Brahimaj will catch Soriano in a front headlock and submit him.

"I'm going to have to pick Ramse Brahim here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Brahimaj has improved his cardio and takedown defense since moving to Chicago, and he is more calculated now. Soriano is a power puncher but relies on wrestling to grind out wins, and he doesn't threaten submissions. Brahimaj's grappling defense should be good enough to keep it standing or scramble, and he can catch Soriano in a submission. The under 2.5 rounds also makes sense.

under 2.5 rounds
"So the official prediction will be Broy Mai by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul thinks Soriano at 170 is a different beast with better cardio and power. He acknowledges Brahimaj's grappling but thinks Soriano's wrestling and strength will be enough. He calls it a pick'em and leans Soriano.

"I'm going to pick Puna. But that's just because, you know, I got to support the Hawaiian wave."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his nasty knockout power, solid chin, and physicality. He believes Soriano won't be lost on the feet and can avoid Brahimaj's guillotine. He notes Brahimaj's wins are over lesser competition and that Soriano has dominated grapplers before. He predicts a TKO finish in round one or two.

TKO finish in round one or two, underdog
"I'm going to take him by TKO finish in round one or two over Ramiz Brahimaj as an underdog."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Zane picks Soriano, believing he will bully Brahimaj with his athleticism and power. He notes that Soriano has options and is too dangerous. If Soriano chooses to wrestle, he might get caught in a submission, but that's a thin chance. Zane trusts Soriano's recent wins more than Brahimaj's.

"i'll take soriano. I think he just so clearly feels super confident at this division... that he is going to go in there and bully brahima"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Punahele Soriano 0 39 of 54 72% 163 of 200 4 of 11 36% 1 1 12:35
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 9 of 12 75% 34 of 37 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Punahele Soriano 0 21 of 30 70% 82 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:05
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 6 of 7 85% 21 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
2 Punahele Soriano 0 11 of 13 84% 34 of 44 1 of 3 33% 1 1 4:13
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
3 Punahele Soriano 0 7 of 11 63% 47 of 51 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:17
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 2 of 2 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Punahele Soriano 39 of 54 72% 38 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 37 of 49
Nikolay Veretennikov 9 of 12 75% 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1 4 of 6 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Punahele Soriano 21 of 30 70% 21 of 28 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 27
Nikolay Veretennikov 6 of 7 85% 1 of 1 4 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 1 of 1
2 Punahele Soriano 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 12
Nikolay Veretennikov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Punahele Soriano 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 10
Nikolay Veretennikov 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Punahele Soriano vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-245), Veretennikov (+200)

Round 1
Two knockout-inclined welterweights will ply their trades against one another with continued preliminary action. A win for Soriano (11-4, 5-4 UFC) would keep him above the dreaded .500 line in the promotion, while Kazakhstan’s Veretennikov (13-6, 1-2 UFC) needs to get past “Story Time” to reach that level. If a brawl ensues, referee Marc Goddard will keep a lid on it as best he can. Before that prospective slugfest, they tap gloves.
Soriano takes right to the center of the cage, hopping back to avoid a stomp kick to the knee and springing ahead to fire off a body kick. He aims a second to the same spot, and when Veretennikov counters, Soriano charges with a double and takes Veretennikov off his feet. Veretennikov bounces off and up in the air, and with Soriano on his knees, he measures and blasts the Hawaiian with a mighty knee to the ribs. Veretennikov settles down and wraps up a guillotine choke with his left arm, and when Soriano lifts him up and slams him down, the choke briefly tightens. Soriano sits up and breaks out of the choke, and he starts raining down left hands. Veretennikov attacks back with his own offense from below, but the power differential is drastic from that position. Soriano keeps pounding on his opponent, briefly trapping his foe’s right arm beneath his knee to open up more shots.
Soriano switches to hammering Veretennikov with elbow after unanswered elbow, and his position tying Veretennikov up while not keeping him flat is pinning Veretennikov to the floor. Soriano’s left hands continue to bludgeon the Kazakhstan native, and even though Goddard is not anywhere close to considering stepping in, these consistent blows are draining him. Soriano holds Veretennikov down with his left arm and beats on his ribs with his right, and the ground-and-pound may not be devastating but it is effective as can be. He continues to drive punches down, developing a pattern similar to iambic pentameter in that he lands a soft blow and then a powerful one, and alternates them like ba-dum ba-dum as the sound of the impact echoes around the ring. The one-sided round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano

Round 2
It takes Soriano 15 seconds to commit to a takedown, and he lifts Veretennikov up in the air and deposits him gingerly to the mat. Veretennikov defends instinctively with a guillotine choke, and Soriano uses this opportunity to trap him with a Von Preux shoulder choke. Veretennikov offers a thumbs-up to show he is fine, and he slowly manages to wriggle his neck out of danger. Soriano reintroduces himself with a blistering elbow from above, and even though he has his own leg stuck between Veretennikov’s, he seems to prefer this position lording over his adversary with ground strikes galore. Veretennikov does what he can to tie up Soriano and slow the beating, and Soriano lowers himself down to pursue an arm-triangle choke.
Veretennikov does not fall victim to the submission, so Soriano hacks at him with a pair of mean-spirited elbows. Soriano’s left hand keeps landing until Veretennikov wills himself to his feet, through sheer horsepower. Soriano trips and Veretennikov pounces, wrapping up a rear-naked choke and tightening it quickly. Soriano explodes out of the bad position and turns the Kazakh over, where he gets back into his groove of methodical ground attacks. Veretennikov flirts with an armbar to keep Soriano honest, but this only allows Soriano to hammer him with four or five long punches. Veretennikov sits up and gets in a position to aim a knee to the sternum, and he drives one or two in before the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano

Round 3
Hands are clapped to open Round 3, and Veretennikov strikes first with a punch to the body. That one strike is all he gets off before Soriano darts in to pursue a takedown. The two twirl around while Soriano hangs onto the single, and Veretennikov grips a guillotine around the side of the head to further threaten. Soriano lifts and slams Veretennikov with an exclamation point, freeing himself from the choke and pushing his hand off Veretennikov’s face. One of Veretennikov’s coaches claims that Soriano is out from the guillotine that Veretennikov is still holding, and Goddard tells that coach to knock it off as Soriano is fine. In fact, the Hawaiian postures up a moment or two later to get out of the sub, and he works the body and head when establishing himself. Goddard asks for more, so Soriano punches Veretennikov in the face.
Soriano stacks Veretennikov up, who is searching for an armbar or otherwise using a high guard to control or attack something. Soriano steps over easily to the side to break up the setup, and he pounds an elbow down on the jaw. As Soriano slows down, Goddard asks for more activity from the fighters. Not wanting to let them just sit around and smooch—figuratively speaking, of course—he stands the fighters up. Soriano takes a deep breath and shoots for a single from afar, and Veretennikov jumps for a guillotine choke and wraps it up while standing. Soriano’s eyes go wide as he is pulled down on top of the Kazakh, and Veretennikov squeezes the choke with all his might. Soriano signals thumbs-up as he slithers his neck out of danger, and he concludes the match with emphatic elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-26 Soriano)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)

The Official Result
Punahele Soriano def. Nikolay Veretennikov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo trusts that Punahele Soriano will use his wrestling, as a Division III All-American, to win, despite his tendency to sometimes just strike. He notes Soriano has heavy hands but poor takedown defense, while Veretennikov is a powerful striker who can be taken down. His concern is that Soriano might abandon wrestling after a recent knockout win. He is not betting on this fight.

Not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to trust the division three all-American wrestler to wrestle his way to a win... I'm going to pick Punel."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady likes Soriano, especially at welterweight, where he seems like a different animal with improved cardio and strength. He notes that Veretennikov has awful cardio and a poor ground game, and that Soriano can wrestle him, get him tired, and finish him on the mat. He predicts a second-round TKO for Soriano.

Soriano by second round TKO.
"I'm going to take Sorano here. I think he makes this look really easy with the correct game plan ... Give me Soraniano by second round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano but noting that it depends on whether Soriano fights well. He hopes to see a more aggressive, active, and wrestling-minded Soriano, as seen in his welterweight debut, but acknowledges that his previous opponents (Miguel Baeza and Eros Medich) were not reliable tests.

Soriano opened at -300, currently -332; Veretennikov opened at +250, currently +272. Connor comments: 'Possibly a bit wide. It's too wide. Soriano lost to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov. He should not be a serious favorite over anybody.'
"I'll take Soriano too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano is expected to put his power on Veretennikov early, and if he doesn't finish within the first minute and a half, he will resort to wrestling and grind out a decision win.

"I believe Soriano will do a great job in terms of putting his power early on Veretennikov, but if he can't get him out of there within the first minute and a half, he'll start resorting to his wrestling and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru confidently picks Punahele Soriano, comparing him to Francisco Prado who gave Veretennikov trouble. He notes Soriano's power, pressure, and ability to close distance, while Veretennikov stands too upright and struggles with aggressive fighters. He predicts a first-round KO.

first-round KO
"I'm going to go with Punelle Soriano first-round KO over Nikolai Veretennikov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Zane picks Soriano because the welterweight move has made him feel bigger, stronger, and more confident, allowing him to wrestle more effectively. He notes that Veretennikov is a bad wrestler who gave up takedowns to Francisco Prado, and Soriano should be able to exploit that. However, he cautions that Soriano is prone to inactivity and single-idea offense.

Soriano opened at -300, currently -332; Veretennikov opened at +250, currently +272. Zane comments: 'Possibly a bit wide. It's too wide. Soriano lost to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov. He should not be a serious favorite over anybody.'
"I got to go with Soriano here."
WIN vs Uroš Medić
KO (punches) R1 0:31 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Punahele Soriano 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Uroš Medić 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Punahele Soriano 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Uroš Medić 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Punahele Soriano 13 of 17 76% 12 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 9
Uroš Medić 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Punahele Soriano 13 of 17 76% 12 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 9
Uroš Medić 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uroš Medić, citing his superior striking, speed, and power. He notes that Punahele Soriano's only path to victory is wrestling, but Medić's takedown defense is a concern. However, he believes Medić is the better striker and will land clean shots. He has Medić in a parlay with César Almeida, though he expresses some nervousness about the bet.

Parlay with César Almeida
"I'm going to go ahead and pick uros medik and I actually have him parlay I'll give you the other half of that parlay in a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady sees a clear path for Soriano: take Medić down. He notes Medić's takedown defense and ground game are questionable, and Soriano looked dominant at welterweight against Baeza, landing 331 strikes. He worries Soriano might strike instead of wrestle, but believes if he uses his wrestling, he can win by TKO or decision. He picks Soriano to win, possibly by TKO via ground and pound.

"I got to go pun haly Serano here I think the path is clear as day"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Cody picks Medić, questioning Soriano's one good performance at 170 against a shot Miguel Baeza. He believes Medić's power and pace will cause Soriano to fatigue. He notes Medić's finishing ability and Soriano's history of gassing.

"I'm going to take medic as the official pick but he's not going to be U like someone I want to have a ton of investment on"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor picks Soriano because he believes Soriano's wrestling and physicality will be effective at welterweight. He notes that Soriano showed a grinding game against Miguel Baeza, and Medić is bad at dealing with sustained pressure and takedowns. While Soriano is uncreative and has shown little improvement, Connor thinks his size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight. He acknowledges it's not a smart pick but sees a path.

"So I'm going to pick Soriano."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Daniel notes Medić is more technically sound on the feet with better volume and diversity, while Soriano has big power in his left hand but shaky in-between and cardio concerns at welterweight. He thinks Medić will win the minutes, but Soriano could land a big shot or use wrestling. He picks Medić but is not interested in betting.

not interested in betting
"I'm going go with medic here um cuz I do think that if this fight's staying standing yes Puna has a chance to land one big shot but just in terms of the volume the output and the action it's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Lucrative James picks Uroš Medić to win, citing Medić's superior striking and cleaner kickboxing. He acknowledges Soriano's wrestling advantage and power, but believes Medić's skill on the feet will prevail over three rounds. He notes Soriano's cardio issues and that Medić has decent takedown defense. He also mentions that Soriano moved down from 185 and Medić moved up from 155, but still favors Medić's higher ceiling.

"I think uros medes is the better fighter and I think he's going to win the fight I think he has too many skills in the strik in and he has decent take down defense at least initially"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano is a solid wrestler as shown in his welterweight debut against Miguel Baeza. He will get to his grappling, keep Medić on his back, and grind out a decision win as long as he doesn't get finished early.

"I think we'll see him get to that grappling once again here keeping uros medic on his back and as long as he doesn't get finished early he should be able to Gra this match up out and win it …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano as a plus-money underdog, citing his impressive wrestling at 170 in his last fight. He expects fireworks and has bet under 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Medić's danger but likes Soriano's path via takedowns.

under 1.5 rounds
"all side with with Puna because of me uh plus money Underdog plus the fact that like he showed us some of that wrestling there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The Guru picks Medić, noting his size as a big lightweight at welterweight, his KO of Tim Means, and his better technique and speed. He criticizes Soriano's recent performances, including losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and a poor showing against Miguel Baeza. He predicts an early TKO for Medić.

early TKO
"I'm going to go uros medic here over penelli Sano it might be a dangerous fight but I think he'll have way better technique and he'll be a lot faster so I could actually see anos medic early TKO over …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Zane picks Medić because he is a more dangerous finisher and expects Soriano to struggle to impose his game plan. Medić's movement and kicks could frustrate Soriano, who is hittable and plotting. Zane notes that Soriano's win over Baeza was more about Baeza's poor performance than Soriano's skill. Medić's ability to keep the fight in open space and avoid being clinched gives him the edge.

"I'm going to go with meditch."
WIN vs Miguel Baeza
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Punahele Soriano 0 7 of 12 58% 22 of 33 0 of 2 0% 3 0 0:47
Miguel Baeza 0 144 of 175 82% 331 of 394 5 of 6 83% 0 0 10:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Punahele Soriano 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 17 0 of 2 0% 3 0 0:47
Miguel Baeza 0 42 of 59 71% 54 of 80 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:27
2 Punahele Soriano 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 49 of 59 83% 93 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:46
3 Punahele Soriano 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 53 of 57 92% 184 of 203 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Punahele Soriano 7 of 12 58% 0 of 1 6 of 8 1 of 3 5 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 144 of 175 82% 129 of 158 13 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 7 5 of 5 136 of 163
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Punahele Soriano 5 of 9 55% 0 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 2 3 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 42 of 59 71% 40 of 56 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 5 5 of 5 36 of 49
2 Punahele Soriano 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 49 of 59 83% 43 of 52 5 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 48 of 58
3 Punahele Soriano 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 53 of 57 92% 46 of 50 7 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 52 of 56
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing Miguel Baeza's three-fight losing streak and two-year layoff, with his last two losses being knockouts. He notes that Soriano has power and wrestling, and while he has been losing, he has been active. He thinks Baeza's chin issues and ring rust are too much to overlook, and Soriano's power could be the difference.

"I got to go Puna here maybe skill for skill Miguel bayaza is better but punah hel has been active he's a fluid Striker he has one punch knockout power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by second-round submission. He notes that Baeza is more well-rounded and skilled, but his chin is worrisome after knockout losses. He expects Baeza to survive the first round and then take over as Soriano gasses. He calls it a 'club and sub' finish.

submission round 2
"give me Miguel bazza I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round finish I I think it could be a knockout I think it could be a sub um but I think it is going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Cody picks Baeza, noting that Soriano has poor cardio and takedown defense, and is moving down to welterweight after struggling at middleweight. Baeza is a BJJ black belt who has been focusing on grappling during his layoff. Cody believes if Baeza can survive the first round, he can take Soriano down and dominate. He expects Baeza to win by decision or submission.

"I'm not betting on that I'm betting on that if that first round knockout doesn't materialize what does this guy go to his plan B C or D and these guys that I'm fading here they don't have cardio cardio …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Daniel leans Baeza as the better talent with a nasty jab and calf kicks, but questions his chin and confidence after recent knockout losses. He notes Soriano has power and could knock Baeza out if Baeza's defense is poor. He calls it a pass due to too many question marks.

pass
"I'm gonna lean with Miguel because I do think he's the better talent and the better fighter but let me remind you all the better fighter does not always win"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that even at 60-70% of his former self, Baeza has the tools to box up Soriano, who is coming down in weight. He notes that Baeza is fast and has good grappling, and Soriano lacks the speed to counter him. Jacob has placed a big bet on Baeza, believing he will style on Soriano.

Miguel Baeza wins by finish
"I put a big old bet I'm talking a big old bet on Miguel Bea"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Baeza is more complete with his calf kicking and striking, and Soriano's weight cut to welterweight may slow him down. Baeza should chip away and win a decision, but his durability and long layoff are concerns. Soriano has early KO power, so a hedge on Soriano by KO is possible. Leaning Baeza but likely passing.

"I'm ultimately going to lean on the bayaza side I think he's the more complete Fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano by knockout in round one, noting that Baeza has been knocked out before and Soriano has power. He acknowledges Soriano's cardio issues but thinks the move to welterweight could help. Paul bet Soriano by knockout at plus 300 and round one knockout at plus 675, expecting an early finish.

Punahele Soriano by knockout (+300), Punahele Soriano by knockout in round 1 (+675)
"I actually took a little bit of Puna knockout and Puna knock at round one plus 300 and plus 675 cuz I feel like new weight class he was always undiz for the division and he's taking on a guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

The Guru picks Baeza because he thinks Soriano is a middleweight moving down to welterweight, which won't work. He notes Baeza is a big welterweight with reach advantage and won't be bullied. He mentions Baeza took Colby Covington to the third round and didn't get smoked early, so Soriano's power shouldn't be a problem. He predicts a second or third-round finish for Baeza.

Second or third-round finish prediction
"I'm going to go with Miguel baser here... penelli Sano to get this one done I reckon maybe a second or third round finish"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 31 of 73 42% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 64 of 123 52% 78 of 140 4 of 7 57% 1 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 41 of 79 51% 43 of 82 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:29
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 9 of 26 34% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 0 23 of 44 52% 35 of 58 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 31 of 73 42% 18 of 56 9 of 11 4 of 6 30 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 64 of 123 52% 24 of 79 23 of 27 17 of 17 60 of 116 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 22 of 47 46% 13 of 35 7 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 41 of 79 51% 15 of 51 17 of 19 9 of 9 37 of 72 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 9 of 26 34% 5 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 23 of 44 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 8 of 8 23 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say San catches them early if it does get extended it might get sketchy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335
"what's Puna round one is that a number that I might be interested in it's plus 200 standby for further confirmation that that could get that could get a little bit of money for me I mean what's him by …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.

inside the distance, likely knockout in round one
"I think he's going to get cracked by punah heli Sano Sano is a decent fighter man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.

round 1 prop, under 1.5 rounds recommended
"give me Sano minus 300 a little bit too much I'd probably hone in on that round one prop maybe the under one and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335 considered
"I think he wins the fight am I super confident no because I don't really like s all that much but I think he wins this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.

KO in second round or late first
"I'm going to go with Punahele Soriano... I reckon he'll get a KO in the second round or late in the first."
LOSS vs Roman Kopylov
TKO (body kick and punches) R2 3:19 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 39 of 107 36% 39 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Punahele Soriano 0 82 of 128 64% 82 of 128 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Punahele Soriano 0 35 of 62 56% 35 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
2 Roman Kopylov 0 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Punahele Soriano 0 47 of 66 71% 47 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 39 of 107 36% 35 of 101 4 of 6 0 of 0 33 of 98 6 of 9 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 82 of 128 64% 56 of 101 14 of 15 12 of 12 76 of 120 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0 17 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 35 of 62 56% 22 of 49 4 of 4 9 of 9 34 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 21 of 61 34% 17 of 55 4 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 53 5 of 8 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 47 of 66 71% 34 of 52 10 of 11 3 of 3 42 of 59 5 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Punahele Soriano
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-165), Kopylov (+140)

Round 1
This middleweight scrap may not last long, and referee Kerry Hatley will need to keep his head on a swivel. Dueling 89% finish rates for Soriano (9-2, 3-2 UFC) and Kopylov (9-2, 1-2 UFC) crash into each other like ships in a storm, although neither man has ever been stopped by strikes. Before the fists meet faces, the fists bump into one another respectfully. Kopylov is quick to back off as Soriano comes out guns blazing, with a pair of overhand rights getting his attention in a hurry. “Story Time” suddenly goes for a double, and when that fails, he wings a huge left hand. Kopylov blocks the worst of the haymakers flying towards him, but Soriano is still gunning for him with that big left. Kopylov sticks out a jab to disrupt the swinging hammers, sticking and moving to make Soriano hit air. Kopylov chops at the lead calf and blocks high as he expects a big left aimed at him. He is correct, as it collides off the guard and he resets. Kopylov sticks out several jabs, chaining them into a right hand, and Soriano grits his teeth and slugs right back. Kopylov is more content to touch while Soriano is swinging for the bleachers, and this allows Kopylov to see the strikes coming and block the dangerous ones. The Russian pierces out a jab, splitting the guard repeatedly and stifling the worst of the worst that is fired his direction. The jab continues to find its home, a piston connecting with the nose again and again. Soriano whiffs on a bomb and bounces off the cage wall, and he takes a deep breath just three minutes into the match. Soriano winds up and misses on another overhand left, with Kopylov composed and moving comfortably. Kopylov chips at the leg and paws out jabs, and he shuts down a tackling double-leg entry from the Hawaiian. Kopylov leaves a jab out too long, and Soriano reaches him with a huge left. When Soriano advances, Kopylov turns the tables on him with his own tackle of a takedown that sets his man down briefly. When Soriano scrambles, Kopylov just lets him back up, and the two get back after it on the feet. Kopylov sticks “Story Time” with a pair of punches, and he backs off until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start, and Kopylov decides to lead the dance initially. With a fast chain of punches, he knocks Soriano back, and forces Soriano to attack from a different angle. Soriano slows himself down and starts loading up on single shots, but this lets Kopylov pop him again and again with a stinging jab. Soriano swats the jab out of the way to close in and fire, and he unloads a fastball of a left hand that just misses the mark by a matter of millimeters. Kopylov spins to crack the body like a whip with a spinning back kick, and Soriano takes it flush and groans. Soriano lets them close in so that he can pound a few uppercuts on the nose, and this marks up Kopylov’s nose. Kopylov keeps his right hand out, further disrupting the Hawaiian and frustrating him. Kopylov dogs body shots, and he rips a kick to the ribs as Soriano winces in pain. The Russian knows the body is the weakness, and he targets the majority of his blows at the midsection. Soriano, with every bit of his remaining energy, swings recklessly and keeps Kopylov honest enough to not put him away.
Kopylov takes a breath, and he smashes his shin in the Hawaiian's liver. Soriano is barely on his feet, frozen in time momentarily as he cannot even take a breath. Kopylov chains together a long salvo of punches, and Soriano shells up and bends over but does not go down. Knowing that there is nothing more Soriano has to offer, Hatley mercifully halts the fight.
With that sterling performance in the books, Kopylov has now become the first fighter to ever finish the durable Hawaiian.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Punahele Soriano R2 3:19 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo picks Soriano because he has more ways to win, including wrestling and power. He notes Kopylov is the better striker but Soriano's wrestling could be the difference. However, he doesn't trust Soriano to execute and advises not betting. He mentions Soriano's takedown defense issues and Kopylov's vulnerability to takedowns.

"I'm gonna pick punahil here because he has more ways to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov as an upset, citing Kopylov's technical striking advantage and better cardio. He notes that Soriano has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and if the fight stays on the feet, Kopylov has more tools and body kicks. He worries about Soriano's power but trusts Kopylov to outwork him as the fight goes on, predicting a decision win. He acknowledges Soriano could knock out Kopylov but leans toward Kopylov's consistency.

Kopylov by decision
"I kind of trust copulov as the fight goes on here so I'm gonna take another upset here with uh Roman cobillov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans towards Kopylov, agreeing that Soriano's cardio is a major issue. He notes Soriano fades after 7.5 minutes and doesn't wrestle due to gas concerns. He sees Kopylov as live if the fight goes the distance, and mentions a possible Kopylov by decision bet.

Kopylov by decision considered
"I think the reason he doesn't wrestle is because he knows that he doesn't have 15 minutes of gas to implement that type of game plan"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor picks Soriano because he is insanely tough and has many ways to win, including powerful striking and a solid wrestling background. He notes that Soriano can soak up damage and has a good left hand and low kicks. However, Connor expresses concern that Soriano doesn't always use his wrestling and can be inconsistent, but believes his toughness and power will carry him against Kopylov's predictable boxing.

Odds: Soriano opened -180, currently -158. Kopylov opened +155, currently +131. Connor notes the odds are getting closer but still favors Soriano.
"I'm still going to pick him though. Cause he's insanely tough. Uh, he can soak up a lot of damage without, I mean, the number of body kicks he took from Brandon Allen without it really affecting that much about …"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Jacob picks Kopylov as a live underdog, believing he is the better striker and may even wrestle. He notes Soriano's poor defensive wrestling and Kopylov's toughness. He thinks Soriano can't be trusted and Kopylov has good value. He mentions Kopylov's camp and takedown defense.

"I'm on the copy live side here I think he's a better Striker"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Paul picks Kopylov as an underdog, citing Soriano's poor cardio and reluctance to wrestle. He notes Kopylov's improved performance against Dichirico and believes he can outwork Soriano with leg kicks and combinations. He mentions a possible Kopylov by decision prop at +430.

Kopylov by decision at +430 considered
"I think I'm gonna take a little action here on Roman capital of plus 135"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Zane picks Soriano because he is too tough and has too many other options, including wrestling and low kicks. He notes that Kopylov is a predictable boxer who struggles with opponents who can mix in kicks and takedowns. Zane also points out that Soriano's wrestling background gives him an edge if he chooses to use it, and that Kopylov's lack of defensive wrestling is a liability.

Odds: Soriano opened -180, currently -158. Kopylov opened +155, currently +131. Zane thinks Soriano should win but notes it could be close.
"Soriano too tough and too many other options. If he, you know, this would be absolutely the point to actually, he took Jamie pick it down three times. This is the point of that wrestling back, you know?"
KO (punches) R2 0:28 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Punahele Soriano 1 17 of 35 48% 19 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Dalcha Lungiambula 0 11 of 22 50% 17 of 28 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Punahele Soriano 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Dalcha Lungiambula 0 10 of 21 47% 16 of 27 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
2 Punahele Soriano 1 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dalcha Lungiambula 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Punahele Soriano 17 of 35 48% 8 of 25 9 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 26 4 of 5 4 of 4
Dalcha Lungiambula 11 of 22 50% 6 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 18 0 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Punahele Soriano 11 of 28 39% 3 of 19 8 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dalcha Lungiambula 10 of 21 47% 6 of 16 1 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 2
2 Punahele Soriano 6 of 7 85% 5 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
Dalcha Lungiambula 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dalcha Lungiambula

Angelo picks Dalcha Lungiambula, citing his power, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Soriano's poor takedown defense and that Lungiambula looked great in his last fight before a bad decision. He placed a half-unit moneyline bet and plans an inside the distance decision no action bet.

half unit moneyline bet; plans inside the distance decision no action bet
"i like dolce to win this fight i think he has more power better takedown defense and i think he can keep his power longer into the second and third rounds i did a tiny half a unit money line …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by decision. He notes that both fighters have poor cardio, but Soriano's is slightly better. He thinks Soriano wins the first round and may take over later. He mentions that Soriano has better finishing ability but expects the fight to go to decision due to both fighters' durability. He does not recommend betting Soriano at -275.

decision win; odds comment: minus 275 too high
"i'm gonna take soriano to win i'm gonna take him to win by a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody picks Soriano but with low confidence, noting that both fighters are untrustworthy. He acknowledges Soriano's durability and power, but also his poor wrestling and cardio. He believes Soriano's chin and training at a world-class gym give him an edge, but he won't bet this fight.

Soriano under 1.5 takedowns
"i will pick puna soriano but i won't touch this fight with my money with a 10-foot pole"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Daniel Levi leans Punahele Soriano but is not confident at the -225 price. He notes both fighters have knockout power and that Soriano is cleaner and more well-rounded, but Lungiambula is dangerous. He considers it closer than the odds suggest and wants more info on sparring sessions before committing.

dog-or-pass; wants inside info
"i lean puna ish let me see where these odds open first of all"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul also picks Soriano but with hesitation, citing Lungiambula's tendency to gas out and make mistakes. He notes that Soriano has a good chin and has shown improvement. However, he agrees the -240 price is too steep and will not bet it.

Soriano under 1.5 takedowns
"the pick will be soriano as well but dolce lung and lula uh just so physically strong"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula, citing Soriano's toughness and power. He notes Lungiambula's poor cardio and that Soriano is difficult to finish. He predicts Soriano will catch Lungiambula with body shots and knees in the clinch, leading to a second-round TKO.

predicts second-round TKO
"i can see pinelli soriano winning this one by that second round tko brutal fashion finishes off uh dalchill and gambler on the ground with ground and pound"
LOSS vs Nick Maximov
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nick Maximov 0 45 of 63 71% 74 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Punahele Soriano 0 29 of 45 64% 60 of 82 11 of 16 68% 1 1 8:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nick Maximov 0 15 of 21 71% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Punahele Soriano 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 20 3 of 7 42% 1 0 2:16
2 Nick Maximov 0 21 of 32 65% 32 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Punahele Soriano 0 13 of 19 68% 19 of 27 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:20
3 Nick Maximov 0 9 of 10 90% 20 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Punahele Soriano 0 11 of 12 91% 31 of 35 5 of 5 100% 0 1 4:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nick Maximov 45 of 63 71% 28 of 46 17 of 17 0 of 0 20 of 38 2 of 2 23 of 23
Punahele Soriano 29 of 45 64% 19 of 33 6 of 8 4 of 4 15 of 31 10 of 10 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nick Maximov 15 of 21 71% 11 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 8
Punahele Soriano 5 of 14 35% 2 of 9 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nick Maximov 21 of 32 65% 16 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 25 1 of 1 6 of 6
Punahele Soriano 13 of 19 68% 11 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Nick Maximov 9 of 10 90% 1 of 2 8 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 9
Punahele Soriano 11 of 12 91% 6 of 7 1 of 1 4 of 4 2 of 3 5 of 5 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo picks Punahele Soriano as a striker with power. He notes Soriano's takedown defense is untested but his striking is far superior to Maximov's. Maximov is a BJJ specialist with raw striking and okay takedowns. Angelo expects Soriano to win on the feet, but warns he gassed against Allen. If Soriano gasses, Maximov could take over, making it a live bet situation.

Live bet suggestion: if Soriano gasses after round 1, bet Maximov.
"punahil is the pick but if he gasses after the first round and can't get nick out of there this may be a phenomenal live bet situation for nick maksimov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody agrees with Soriano but is hesitant due to Soriano's suspect cardio. He notes that Maximov has a wrestling background and could take the fight to the ground, where he has slick transitions. However, Soriano has the striking advantage and power. Cody worries that if Maximov gets an early takedown, Soriano may gas, but he still leans Soriano.

"the pig's gonna be soriano just don't know how much i love it is the main thing because his cardio is suspect"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Daniel Levi picks Punahele Soriano, emphasizing his All-American wrestling background which should allow him to stuff Maximov's takedowns. He notes Soriano has faced tougher competition like Dusko Todorovic and Brendan Allen, while Maximov is less tested. Levi expects Soriano to land big shots after stuffing takedowns, potentially getting a finish. He respects Maximov's toughness but sees Soriano as the more proven fighter.

"I gotta go with puna haley soriano here everyone only talks about how this guy's this one hitter quitter knockout artist which is a great quality to have and he is a knockout artist but let's not forget he's an …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Lock of the Night picks Soriano, expecting him to defend takedowns and land enough on the feet to win a decision. He notes Soriano's wrestling background and power, but questions his durability if extended. He thinks Maximov will close distance irresponsibly and leave himself open to shots, but Soriano may not knock him out. He likes Soriano by decision at +350 and the over 1.5 rounds.

Soriano by decision +350, over 1.5 rounds -160
"i think puna will do a good enough job in terms of defending them and then on the feet i think puna can touch him up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul thinks Soriano has the striking and power advantage, and if he keeps the fight upright, he will likely finish Maximov. He notes that Maximov's stand-up is a work in progress and that his grappling transitions looked solid but he struggled with cardio. Paul is concerned about Soriano's cardio but still picks him because Maximov's takedown entries may not be good enough.

"soriano for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, criticizing Nick Maximov's lack of athleticism and power. He expects Soriano to stuff takedowns and land a big overhand right, knocking Maximov out in the first round. He references Maximov's fight with Cody Brundage where he did no damage, and calls the matchup a 'mismatch'.

TKO, round 1, overhand right
"i'm gonna go with pinelli soriano here... i think pinelli's gonna stuff a couple of those takedowns knee max him off to the body a couple of times and then lay him out cold in the first round"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo picks Soriano because he has more ways to win, including wrestling and power. He notes Kopylov is the better striker but Soriano's wrestling could be the difference. However, he doesn't trust Soriano to execute and advises not betting. He mentions Soriano's takedown defense issues and Kopylov's vulnerability to takedowns.

"I'm gonna pick punahil here because he has more ways to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov as an upset, citing Kopylov's technical striking advantage and better cardio. He notes that Soriano has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and if the fight stays on the feet, Kopylov has more tools and body kicks. He worries about Soriano's power but trusts Kopylov to outwork him as the fight goes on, predicting a decision win. He acknowledges Soriano could knock out Kopylov but leans toward Kopylov's consistency.

Kopylov by decision
"I kind of trust copulov as the fight goes on here so I'm gonna take another upset here with uh Roman cobillov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans towards Kopylov, agreeing that Soriano's cardio is a major issue. He notes Soriano fades after 7.5 minutes and doesn't wrestle due to gas concerns. He sees Kopylov as live if the fight goes the distance, and mentions a possible Kopylov by decision bet.

Kopylov by decision considered
"I think the reason he doesn't wrestle is because he knows that he doesn't have 15 minutes of gas to implement that type of game plan"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor picks Soriano because he is insanely tough and has many ways to win, including powerful striking and a solid wrestling background. He notes that Soriano can soak up damage and has a good left hand and low kicks. However, Connor expresses concern that Soriano doesn't always use his wrestling and can be inconsistent, but believes his toughness and power will carry him against Kopylov's predictable boxing.

Odds: Soriano opened -180, currently -158. Kopylov opened +155, currently +131. Connor notes the odds are getting closer but still favors Soriano.
"I'm still going to pick him though. Cause he's insanely tough. Uh, he can soak up a lot of damage without, I mean, the number of body kicks he took from Brandon Allen without it really affecting that much about how he was fighting."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Jacob picks Kopylov as a live underdog, believing he is the better striker and may even wrestle. He notes Soriano's poor defensive wrestling and Kopylov's toughness. He thinks Soriano can't be trusted and Kopylov has good value. He mentions Kopylov's camp and takedown defense.

"I'm on the copy live side here I think he's a better Striker"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Paul picks Kopylov as an underdog, citing Soriano's poor cardio and reluctance to wrestle. He notes Kopylov's improved performance against Dichirico and believes he can outwork Soriano with leg kicks and combinations. He mentions a possible Kopylov by decision prop at +430.

Kopylov by decision at +430 considered
"I think I'm gonna take a little action here on Roman capital of plus 135"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Zane picks Soriano because he is too tough and has too many other options, including wrestling and low kicks. He notes that Kopylov is a predictable boxer who struggles with opponents who can mix in kicks and takedowns. Zane also points out that Soriano's wrestling background gives him an edge if he chooses to use it, and that Kopylov's lack of defensive wrestling is a liability.

Odds: Soriano opened -180, currently -158. Kopylov opened +155, currently +131. Zane thinks Soriano should win but notes it could be close.
"Soriano too tough and too many other options. If he, you know, this would be absolutely the point to actually, he took Jamie pick it down three times. This is the point of that wrestling back, you know?"