UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan Next Fight
Age 43
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 230 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 48
Height 6' 2"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ilir Latifi
2.05 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.93 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
2.11 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Aleksei Oleinik
3.29 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.8 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.82 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.9 Sub. Avg
Ilir Latifi - Fight History
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 49 of 77 63% 76 of 105 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:50
Ilir Latifi 0 68 of 152 44% 76 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ilir Latifi 0 34 of 73 46% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 11 of 17 64% 38 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:12
Ilir Latifi 0 15 of 36 41% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:38
Ilir Latifi 0 19 of 43 44% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 49 of 77 63% 20 of 42 18 of 22 11 of 13 46 of 72 1 of 3 2 of 2
Ilir Latifi 68 of 152 44% 51 of 122 10 of 21 7 of 9 61 of 145 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 28 of 44 63% 8 of 20 13 of 16 7 of 8 27 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 34 of 73 46% 26 of 60 7 of 12 1 of 1 29 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 11 of 17 64% 5 of 10 3 of 3 3 of 4 9 of 14 0 of 1 2 of 2
Ilir Latifi 15 of 36 41% 10 of 28 1 of 2 4 of 6 14 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 16 62% 7 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 19 of 43 44% 15 of 34 2 of 7 2 of 2 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento because he believes Latifi is not fully committed, having retired in his last fight and now returning for a paycheck. He thinks Nascimento is younger, hungrier, bigger, and more athletic, and should be able to defend takedowns and get his own. He has a 1-unit moneyline bet on Nascimento at -155 but expresses some buyer's remorse, acknowledging Latifi could be boring and lay on top.

1 unit moneyline bet at -155
"I like the much larger NASA Mento to defend takedowns touch latifi get him flustered and then get his own takedowns I do have a one unit moneyline bet on NASA mental at minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by decision. He cites Nascimento's youth, size, reach advantage, and better striking volume. He expects Nascimento to stuff most of Latifi's takedowns and outwork him on the feet. He notes Latifi is undersized for heavyweight and does little offensively. However, he calls it a low-level heavyweight fight and doesn't want much action on it.

decision
"give me an awesome Mentor I'll take him to win by like a greasy greasy decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento but is wary of the price. He notes Latifi's takedown-and-hold style could be effective, but Nascimento's size and reach should allow him to win the striking exchanges. He calls it a greasy heavyweight fight and would take Latifi at +200 in a prop bet.

would take Latifi at +200 in a two-to-one prop
"I will take NASA menu but if someone was to offer me a two to one chewy bet."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Connor picks Latifi, agreeing that he won't get out-wrestled and that Nascimento is not very good. He notes that Latifi has beaten similar opponents and that Nascimento's boxing is okay but he is slow and hittable. Connor is confident in Latifi's wrestling and ability to make fights ugly.

"I'll pick with TV. Yeah, he just makes fights ugly and has the like a nascent skills and athleticism to eke those fights out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi leans toward Rodrigo Nascimento due to youth, size, and volume advantage. He notes Nascimento has better volume and is 10 years younger, but questions his chin and takedown defense, which hasn't been tested. He recalls Nascimento struggling against Alan Baudot. He thinks Latifi is on his way out but acknowledges Latifi's better defense and takedown threat. He picks Nascimento but is not confident.

"I'm a lean nasimento just because of the youth and the upside"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The host picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing his greater motivation and intention to advance his career. He expects Nascimento to use leg kicks and striking to stay away from Latifi's power, then wear him down in the clinch and eventually control him on the ground. He predicts a decision win, noting the over might be a good play.

"I'm gonna go with the guy that has more intentions on trying to take his career to the next level and that's Rodrigo nacimento"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Paul picks Nascimento, expecting him to pick Latifi apart at range. He notes Latifi's low striking volume and age, and thinks Nascimento's reach and size will be decisive. He is not betting but picks Nascimento.

"NASA Mento is going to be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru finds this fight difficult to predict but sides with Rodrigo Nascimento. He notes Ilir Latifi has teased retirement and is often injured, which makes him unreliable. He believes Nascimento is the better grappler and has decent stand-up, and expects Latifi to expend energy early trying to take him down. He predicts a third-round exhaustion-based TKO where Nascimento stuffs takedowns and batters Latifi against the cage.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go Rodrigo nascarmento for here ... getting a third round exhaustion-based TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Zane picks Latifi, noting that he is hard to out-wrestle and has beaten technically superior boxers. He believes Latifi can out-wrestle Nascimento and that Nascimento's success comes from out-wrestling others, which won't work against Latifi. Zane acknowledges Latifi is 40 but says he is a great athlete for heavyweight and has a long tail.

"I'll pick with TV. Yeah, he just makes fights ugly and has the like a nascent skills and athleticism to eke those fights out."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilir Latifi 0 38 of 48 79% 74 of 88 3 of 6 50% 0 0 8:29
Aleksei Oleinik 0 28 of 70 40% 68 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilir Latifi 0 11 of 14 78% 45 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:16
Aleksei Oleinik 0 4 of 12 33% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilir Latifi 0 17 of 21 80% 19 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Aleksei Oleinik 0 17 of 30 56% 30 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ilir Latifi 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:28
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 28 25% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilir Latifi 38 of 48 79% 32 of 40 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 27 5 of 6 15 of 15
Aleksei Oleinik 28 of 70 40% 9 of 46 7 of 9 12 of 15 27 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilir Latifi 11 of 14 78% 8 of 10 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 9
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 12 33% 1 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilir Latifi 17 of 21 80% 15 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Aleksei Oleinik 17 of 30 56% 5 of 17 5 of 6 7 of 7 17 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ilir Latifi 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 28 25% 3 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 5 6 of 25 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Cody picks Ilir Latifi to win, highlighting his power and the favorable matchup. He notes that Oleinik has a compromised chin and that Latifi's big hooks could knock him out. He expects Latifi to either knock out Oleinik early or grind out a decision. He mentions that Latifi has been training at All-Stars in Sweden and looks motivated.

Latifi by KO +195/+200; Latifi by decision +250
"I just think stylistically he gets this job done even if it's a knockout or a boring decision regardless I still just think he gets the job done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Paul picks Ilir Latifi to win, citing his takedown ability and top control. He notes that Oleinik is unlikely to submit Latifi due to his lack of a neck, and that Latifi's power could lead to a knockout. He expects a slow, grinding fight but believes Latifi's style is a bad matchup for Oleinik. He is not betting due to emotional attachment to both fighters.

"I'm picking the sledgehammer I'm not going to be betting this fight because you know my heart's too invested on both sides"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, despite acknowledging the difficulty of submitting Latifi due to his lack of a neck. He believes Oleinik has the cardio advantage and can outlast Latifi, who hasn't knocked anyone out since 2016. He thinks Oleinik will win a decision by outworking Latifi with volume and grappling. He calls the plus money on Oleinik 'crazy' and bets on him.

Oleinik by decision
"Oleinik by decision is my pick... I think Oleinik has the gas and always kind of surprises with those weird shovel shots."
WIN vs Tanner Boser
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilir Latifi 0 45 of 105 42% 84 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Tanner Boser 0 10 of 38 26% 51 of 98 2 of 3 66% 0 0 6:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilir Latifi 0 8 of 28 28% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Tanner Boser 0 1 of 12 8% 6 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
2 Ilir Latifi 0 34 of 71 47% 35 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Tanner Boser 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
3 Ilir Latifi 0 3 of 6 50% 35 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tanner Boser 0 3 of 5 60% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilir Latifi 45 of 105 42% 32 of 84 11 of 19 2 of 2 28 of 79 4 of 9 13 of 17
Tanner Boser 10 of 38 26% 8 of 33 2 of 4 0 of 1 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilir Latifi 8 of 28 28% 6 of 25 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tanner Boser 1 of 12 8% 1 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilir Latifi 34 of 71 47% 25 of 57 8 of 13 1 of 1 19 of 49 2 of 5 13 of 17
Tanner Boser 6 of 21 28% 5 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 1 6 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ilir Latifi 3 of 6 50% 1 of 2 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tanner Boser 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi

Round 1
In the first of a trio of heavyweight slobberknockers tonight, Boser (19-7-1, 3-2 UFC) will try to get back on the winning track at the expense of the skidding ex-light heavyweight Latifi (14-8, 1 NC; 7-6 UFC). Keeping tabs on this match between big men is referee Herb Dean, and there is a respectful glove touch to start things off. Boser keeps a healthy distance early, landing leg kicks from afar and avoiding the reaching strikes of “The Sledgehammer.” Latifi catches him on the way in, and Boser is able to get out of the way to avoid the brunt of the damage. The Canadian sticks out a jab and fires out a body kick, but the kick gets caught and Latifi throws him down to the ground. The Swede climbs into his foe’s guard, and he steps over to half guard with working on Boser with slow, methodical strikes. Boser recovers his guard without taking much damage, but Latifi slices over to the other side. Latifi latches on with an arm-triangle choke from above, using his full body weight as a smothering device more than actual technique from a choke. Boser explodes out of danger and back to his feet, where he grinds Latifi against the wire. Latifi pushes off thanks to an elbow, and Boser is right there to pop him in the face with a left hand. Boser sits down on a huge right hand, but Latifi crashes in to avoid it and try to throw his own bomb. As a result, neither man connect, and they back off to measure their range. Latifi eats a crisp jab, and slaps another away as he can do nothing but absorb a subsequent body kick. A quick Boser right hand concludes the opening frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Latifi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Latifi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Latifi

Round 2
Boser offers a glove touch to begin the second frame, and he snaps out a jab and ducks out of the way from an oncoming counter. Latifi presses forward to swing a looping left hand, and Boser takes it on the chin and responds with an uppercut. Boser stabs the body with a kick, and he stutter-steps his way in to connect with a right hand and not fall into a clinch. Boser chips away with a body kick, and he comes over the top with a big right hand that glances off the forward bow. Latifi prepares counter left hands, so Boser elects to jab from a distance and sling body kicks that Latifi cannot properly retaliate against. Boser pops out a crisp jab, breaking up a plodding Latifi’s forward movement. Both men trade leg kicks, and “The Bulldozer” tries to knock Latifi over with a head kick that careens off the high guard. Several sticking left hands from Boser find the mark, and Latifi comes back over the top with a single right hand that makes Boser’s mullet shake. The Canadian is no worse for wear from the blow, and Boser reaches out his fist and pokes Latifi in the eye with his thumb. Latifi falls over in pain, but Dean does not recognize the blow, so Boser tries to finish the job with an onslaught of strikes. Boser pounds away on his opponent as Latifi turtles up, and Dean tells him to fight back. This leads Latifi to bursting back to his feet, where he turns him around and even pursues a takedown that falls short. Latifi appears to have recovered, even if his sight may be compromised, and Boser walks him down with punches and a body kick. Boser stays loose and active from a distance, snapping out jabs and body kicks as Latifi is frustrated. Latifi walks away before the round ends, but Boser cannot capitalize on this and time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Boser
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Boser
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Boser

Round 3
Between rounds, Dean calls in the doctor to examine Latifi’s eye. Latifi says he can see, so the fight continues, and the two touch gloves. Boser sticks out a jab, and Latifi is there to meet him with two looping hooks that bounce off his opponent’s shoulders. Boser backs him off with a few jabs, and he ducks down to tag Latifi with a left hand. “The Sledgehammer” gathers himself and ducks down with a double leg takedown, where he slams Boser to his back and may have hurt Boser by landing head-first. Boser punches with both hands as if he were Sakuraba from his back, and Latifi gloms on to him and keeps his full body weight pressed down. Latifi slowly works Boser’s body and head from above, which may not be individually effective, but are adding up. Boser keeps an open guard and tries to buck and kick off, and this does not succeed, allowing Latifi to keep pounding away on him. “The Sledgehammer” keeps landing his sledgehammers as he tries to break Canadian stone, all while the control time is rapidly accumulating for the Swede. Boser paws at Latifi with a line of short right hands, and he tries to sit up but gets easily pushed over. Latifi climbs into half guard as he squeezes down on his adversary, and a few more punches connect before the slow fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Latifi (29-28 Latifi)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Latifi (29-28 Latifi)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Latifi (29-28 Latifi)

The Official Result
Ilir Latifi def. Tanner Boser via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Big Brady thinks the line is off and Latifi has a clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Boser's 100% takedown defense is untested against real wrestlers, and regional tape shows Boser being taken down and controlled. He points out Latifi took down Derrick Lewis three times and controlled him for nine minutes. He is not impressed with Boser's last performance against Arlovski and predicts Latifi wins by decision.

"i'm gonna i'm gonna take a shot on the dog here with otifi"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Cody leans toward Latifi, agreeing with Paul. He notes Boser has not faced a wrestler like Latifi and that Latifi's takedowns could be key. Cody is concerned about Latifi's age and recent losses but sees value. He calls it a dogger pass but is tempted.

"it's a dogger pass situation for me just because i think bozer has been lucky"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Daniel picks Boser but is not confident due to unknown grappling defense. He notes that Boser is a natural heavyweight with twice the output and better point fighting, but if Latifi pins him against the fence or mixes in takedowns, Boser could be exploited. Daniel admits he hasn't seen Boser tested in grappling recently, so the pick is tentative. He expects Boser to outpoint Latifi if the fight stays at range, but acknowledges Latifi's power and clinch work could be problematic.

"i'll pick tanner but it's not a confident pick because of those reasons i mentioned"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tanner Boser

Boser has good striking and volume, but his takedown defense is a question mark. Latifi will try to grapple, but Boser's cardio and movement should allow him to win a decision if he can stay standing.

Boser by decision +190, fight goes distance -120
"I'm going to go with the canadian and that's not a canadian bias"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Paul picks Latifi as a dog, citing his takedown ability and Boser's lack of wrestling defense. He notes Latifi took down Derrick Lewis and thinks he can do the same to Boser. Paul is concerned about Latifi's age and recent form but sees value at +170. He already bet Latifi at +180.

"give me the sledgehammer elire latifi plus 170 is fine i had the plus 180"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

The Guru picks Ilir Latifi as an underdog, believing his grappling will be too much for Tanner Boser. He notes Latifi picked up Derrick Lewis and dunked him, so he expects similar success against Boser. He predicts Latifi will control the fight with takedowns and top control, winning a 30-27 unanimous decision.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i'm going with ali latifi here i think he's going to out grapple tanebosa for three rounds"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 0 20 of 50 40% 27 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Ilir Latifi 0 5 of 12 41% 62 of 77 3 of 7 42% 0 0 8:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 7 of 13 53% 13 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Ilir Latifi 0 2 of 6 33% 6 of 10 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
2 Derrick Lewis 0 2 of 13 15% 2 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ilir Latifi 0 2 of 5 40% 32 of 40 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:17
3 Derrick Lewis 0 11 of 24 45% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Ilir Latifi 0 1 of 1 100% 24 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 20 of 50 40% 12 of 39 8 of 10 0 of 1 12 of 38 8 of 12 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 5 of 12 41% 2 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 7 of 13 53% 2 of 8 5 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Derrick Lewis 2 of 13 15% 0 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 2 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 2 of 5 40% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Derrick Lewis 11 of 24 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 5 of 6 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi

Round 1
Lewis takes the center of the Octagon as he welcomes Latifi to the heavyweight division. they tie up, and Lewis lands a knee to the body before shoving his foe into the fence. Latifi lands a couple short punches in close before breaking away. Latifi claims he was poked in the eye, but Dan Miragliotta isn’t having it. Lewis launches a jump knee that lands on the chest of Latifi, but the Swede doesn’t seem to be affected. Latifi secures the clinch and then transitions to a single leg. Lewis maintains his balance and Latifi relents. He continues to drive Lewis into the fence, however. Not much is happening in this position, and Miragliotta urges the heavyweights to work before ordering a separation with less than 2:00 remaining. Lewis fires off a surprisingly quick high kick. Moments later, “The Black Beast” lands a body kick, prompting Latifi to shoot. Latifi drives his opponent back into the fence, drawing boos from the crowd. Lewis shows off outstanding defense of the single-leg takedown as Latifi is content to grind away against the fence. They break with 20 seconds left, and Lewis misses a leaping knee in the waning seconds. 10-9 Lewis.

Round 2
Lewis opens with a high switch kick. Latifi blocks it but he felt the blow nonetheless. Latifi answers with a hard low kick. Another hard leg kick from Latifi briefly backs up Lewis, who answers with a kick to the body. Lewis tries the flying knee, but Latifi avoids it and shoves his adversary into the cage again. More boos as Latifi doesn’t offer much in the way of offense from this position. Lewis is able to reverse the position, and he lands a short elbow and a knee. However, that allows Latifi an opportunity to land a body lock takedown, and he lands in half guard. The Swede lands some short punches to the body, but nothing of consequence. Latifi is trying to stay busy enough to avoid a standup, but he doesn’t appear to be interested in passing beyond half guard. With 50 seconds left, Miragliotta orders a standup. Lewis jabs and misses a big right hand. Latifi blocks a high kick, secures the clinch and tosses Lewis to the mat. He dives into guard and ends the frame in top position, landing a couple solid right hands before the horn. 10-9 Latifi.

Round 3
Lewis launches a big overhand right, and Latifi counters, but neither man connects. A solid right lands for Lewis moments later. Lewis again goes back to the jumping knee, but it allows Latifi to secure double underhooks against the fence. Latifi drops low and lifts Lewis, dumping him on his back in the middle of the canvas. Latifi is back in half guard with about 3:30 left in the fight. Latifi stays just busy enough, alternating punches to the body and head. Lewis doesn’t look like he has much hope of returning to his feet from this position. The crowd doesn’t like it, but it’s effective. Lewis powers his way up with 2:00 left. Another flying knee comes up short for Lewis, who is on the attack. His aggression allows Latifi to secure the clinch with double underhooks. Lewis pummels free and lands a knee, but Latifi shoves him back into the fence. There’s only a minute left. Latif trips Lewis down but the Houston native hustles up immediately. A kick from Lewis appears to have hurt Latifi somewhat. Latifi quickly ties up, and Lewis lands some hard elbowsand shrugs his foe off. An uppercut lands for Lewis with Latifi on the retreat. They clinch once more as Latifi sneaks a look at the clock. The round ends as Lewis misses one more big right hand. 10-9 Lewis (29-28 Lewis).

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Ilir Latifi via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to knock out Ilir Latifi, likely in the first round. He notes that Latifi is too small for heavyweight and has been knocked out by lesser hitters. He praises Lewis's get-up game and finishing ability, and sees no way Lewis loses in Houston.

knockout in the first round
"I think black piece knocks him out in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)

The host does not pick a side, citing the unpredictability of Derrick Lewis and the difficulty in trusting either fighter. He notes that Lewis has power but questionable cardio and technique, while Latifi has a wrestling advantage but may not keep Lewis down. He advises caution and suggests staying away.

"I'm not comfortable betting either side here hey you know Derrick Lewis can easily easily land a shot on your little TV him just put him out you know the TV has had some chin issues as of late and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis to win by KO, citing Lewis's experience, power, and ability to find knockouts in later rounds. He notes Latifi is too muscle-bound, has injury issues, and will gas after the first round. Lewis has a massive reach advantage.

KO win
"Derrick Lewis gets too big ko win but again I'm telling you this card has great underdogs so we'll see just a little tea for you"
LOSS vs Volkan Oezdemir
KO (punches) R2 4:31 · UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 2 64 of 137 46% 92 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Ilir Latifi 0 18 of 60 30% 20 of 62 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 0 22 of 45 48% 44 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Ilir Latifi 0 5 of 19 26% 7 of 21 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:07
2 Volkan Oezdemir 2 42 of 92 45% 48 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ilir Latifi 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 64 of 137 46% 44 of 114 11 of 14 9 of 9 47 of 110 12 of 20 5 of 7
Ilir Latifi 18 of 60 30% 16 of 54 2 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 56 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 22 of 45 48% 12 of 35 4 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 37 5 of 8 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 5 of 19 26% 5 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 16 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Volkan Oezdemir 42 of 92 45% 32 of 79 7 of 10 3 of 3 30 of 73 7 of 12 5 of 7
Ilir Latifi 13 of 41 31% 11 of 36 2 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Corey Anderson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Corey Anderson 0 33 of 78 42% 34 of 79 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Ilir Latifi 0 40 of 121 33% 45 of 127 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Corey Anderson 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Ilir Latifi 0 7 of 29 24% 7 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
2 Corey Anderson 0 11 of 23 47% 12 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Ilir Latifi 0 16 of 43 37% 21 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Corey Anderson 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ilir Latifi 0 17 of 49 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Corey Anderson 33 of 78 42% 23 of 66 3 of 5 7 of 7 23 of 62 10 of 16 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 40 of 121 33% 24 of 93 11 of 22 5 of 6 38 of 114 2 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Corey Anderson 12 of 30 40% 7 of 24 1 of 2 4 of 4 8 of 21 4 of 9 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 7 of 29 24% 4 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Corey Anderson 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 18 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 16 of 43 37% 6 of 30 8 of 11 2 of 2 15 of 39 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Corey Anderson 10 of 25 40% 7 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 17 of 49 34% 14 of 39 2 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
Technical Submission (standing guillotine choke) R1 3:48 · UFC on Fox: Emmett vs. Stephens · Feb 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilir Latifi 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 1 25 of 41 60% 27 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilir Latifi 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ovince Saint Preux 1 25 of 41 60% 27 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilir Latifi 7 of 24 29% 2 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 25 of 41 60% 11 of 25 5 of 6 9 of 10 19 of 34 1 of 1 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilir Latifi 7 of 24 29% 2 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 25 of 41 60% 11 of 25 5 of 6 9 of 10 19 of 34 1 of 1 5 of 6
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 215: Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 09, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilir Latifi 0 44 of 79 55% 59 of 94 4 of 5 80% 0 0 7:23
Tyson Pedro 0 31 of 54 57% 44 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilir Latifi 0 3 of 7 42% 5 of 9 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:17
Tyson Pedro 0 8 of 17 47% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Ilir Latifi 0 12 of 24 50% 18 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:34
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 19 57% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ilir Latifi 0 29 of 48 60% 36 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:32
Tyson Pedro 0 12 of 18 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilir Latifi 44 of 79 55% 38 of 73 5 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 38 4 of 6 27 of 35
Tyson Pedro 31 of 54 57% 12 of 25 8 of 12 11 of 17 21 of 43 8 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilir Latifi 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 8 of 17 47% 2 of 7 2 of 3 4 of 7 6 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Ilir Latifi 12 of 24 50% 11 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 12 3 of 4 6 of 8
Tyson Pedro 11 of 19 57% 7 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 4 4 of 12 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Ilir Latifi 29 of 48 60% 25 of 44 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 21 0 of 0 21 of 27
Tyson Pedro 12 of 18 66% 3 of 7 3 of 5 6 of 6 11 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aleksei Oleinik - Fight History
LOSS vs Ilir Latifi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilir Latifi 0 38 of 48 79% 74 of 88 3 of 6 50% 0 0 8:29
Aleksei Oleinik 0 28 of 70 40% 68 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilir Latifi 0 11 of 14 78% 45 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:16
Aleksei Oleinik 0 4 of 12 33% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilir Latifi 0 17 of 21 80% 19 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Aleksei Oleinik 0 17 of 30 56% 30 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ilir Latifi 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:28
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 28 25% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilir Latifi 38 of 48 79% 32 of 40 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 27 5 of 6 15 of 15
Aleksei Oleinik 28 of 70 40% 9 of 46 7 of 9 12 of 15 27 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilir Latifi 11 of 14 78% 8 of 10 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 9
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 12 33% 1 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilir Latifi 17 of 21 80% 15 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Aleksei Oleinik 17 of 30 56% 5 of 17 5 of 6 7 of 7 17 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ilir Latifi 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 28 25% 3 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 5 6 of 25 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Cody picks Ilir Latifi to win, highlighting his power and the favorable matchup. He notes that Oleinik has a compromised chin and that Latifi's big hooks could knock him out. He expects Latifi to either knock out Oleinik early or grind out a decision. He mentions that Latifi has been training at All-Stars in Sweden and looks motivated.

Latifi by KO +195/+200; Latifi by decision +250
"I just think stylistically he gets this job done even if it's a knockout or a boring decision regardless I still just think he gets the job done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Paul picks Ilir Latifi to win, citing his takedown ability and top control. He notes that Oleinik is unlikely to submit Latifi due to his lack of a neck, and that Latifi's power could lead to a knockout. He expects a slow, grinding fight but believes Latifi's style is a bad matchup for Oleinik. He is not betting due to emotional attachment to both fighters.

"I'm picking the sledgehammer I'm not going to be betting this fight because you know my heart's too invested on both sides"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, despite acknowledging the difficulty of submitting Latifi due to his lack of a neck. He believes Oleinik has the cardio advantage and can outlast Latifi, who hasn't knocked anyone out since 2016. He thinks Oleinik will win a decision by outworking Latifi with volume and grappling. He calls the plus money on Oleinik 'crazy' and bets on him.

Oleinik by decision
"Oleinik by decision is my pick... I think Oleinik has the gas and always kind of surprises with those weird shovel shots."
Submission (scarf hold) R1 3:39 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.

"i like alexionic i liked him two weeks ago i like him now i think alexia olenek pulls off the upset here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.

first round submission
"give me alexia olynyk to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.

Vanderaa by TKO
"i got jared vander i got jared vander after the first round and i would like to save andra by tko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.

"i just can't pick jaren vader in a ufc fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.

"The pick here is going to be Vanderaa slight lean towards him... if he's able to go out there and give us a solid 12 minutes without getting taken down I could see him cruising to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.

Oleinik by submission +165
"i think the old man oh linux got another one in the tank cody i bet i'm at plus 100"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, expressing disdain for Jared Vanderaa's physique and performance. He expects Oleinik to get a first-round submission, possibly by arm triangle or rear-naked choke, citing Vanderaa's grappling issues and Oleinik's full camp.

first round submission prediction
"i'm gonna go with alexi olynyk here jared vandira is garbage"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 59 of 121 48% 98 of 162 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:31
Aleksei Oleinik 0 71 of 136 52% 112 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 25 of 59 42% 27 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:37
Aleksei Oleinik 0 23 of 53 43% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 10 of 22 45% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Aleksei Oleinik 0 20 of 32 62% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:54
3 Serghei Spivac 0 24 of 40 60% 55 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Aleksei Oleinik 0 28 of 51 54% 51 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 59 of 121 48% 33 of 92 13 of 16 13 of 13 52 of 110 4 of 6 3 of 5
Aleksei Oleinik 71 of 136 52% 67 of 132 3 of 3 1 of 1 55 of 112 4 of 8 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 25 of 59 42% 11 of 45 8 of 8 6 of 6 23 of 55 1 of 3 1 of 1
Aleksei Oleinik 23 of 53 43% 21 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 10 of 22 45% 5 of 15 2 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 3
Aleksei Oleinik 20 of 32 62% 19 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1 14 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 7
3 Serghei Spivac 24 of 40 60% 17 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 1
Aleksei Oleinik 28 of 51 54% 27 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 36 3 of 6 6 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, citing his wrestling, ground and pound, and Oleinik's declining chin. He thinks Spivac will control the fight on top and avoid Oleinik's submissions. He bet the over on rounds (1.5) at +135, expecting the fight to last into the second round. He likes the over on strikes for both.

over 1.5 rounds (+135); monkey knife fight: more more
"i have spivak in my lineup i'm very confident in this."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac due to youth and Oleinik's age (43) and poor cardio. He thinks Spivac should keep the fight standing to avoid Oleinik's submissions and finish him in the third round via TKO. He is not betting due to the high price.

win by TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna take sergey spivak to win I'm gonna say third round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, emphasizing Oleinik's age (43) and decline, while noting Spivac's youth (27) and improved cardio and grappling. He predicts Spivac will win by TKO late in the second round, as Oleinik will struggle with Spivac's jab and clinch, and his cardio will fade.

Spivac by TKO late in the second round; price minus 140
"not only do i take speed back but speed probably gets a tko late in the second price is like minus 140 on that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi sees this as a passing of the torch fight. He notes the 18-year age gap and believes Spivac has shown he can make adjustments and handle adversity, as seen in his wins over Tai Tuivasa and Carlos Felipe. He thinks Spivac can grapple with Oleinik and even beat him at his own game, and that Oleinik's skills are declining. He expects Spivac to win, possibly by ground and pound or knockout.

"i got spit back for the win here um and you know i hope him and uh alexi can hug and you know raise his hand in the middle of the cage"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Jacob picks Serghei Spivac, but worries about Spivac's willingness to grapple with Oleinik. He hopes Spivac keeps it standing and uses his striking to exploit Oleinik's chin. He has Spivac in his lineup at $9,200. He also likes the over on strikes.

"i went with sergey just because we've seen olynyk's chin lately."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The host picks Serghei Spivac by decision, believing he can grind out Oleinik with cage clinching and striking. He notes Spivac's slight striking advantage and that Oleinik is dangerous on the ground but Spivac will play it safe. He expects a slow-paced fight and likes the over 1.5 rounds. He mentions Spivac's decision prop at +677 as an attractive line. He is not confident in paying -230 but thinks Spivac wins.

Spivac by decision at +677; over 1.5 rounds at +135; Spivac round 3 at +850 mentioned
"i'm going to go spivak i'm going to go with i think speedvac round three could be live here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Paul picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his fandom for Oleinik. He notes Oleinik's age and recent poor performances, but acknowledges Spivac's lack of elite speed and power, making this a more favorable matchup for Oleinik than recent fights. Paul passes on betting.

"i'm gonna pick spivak if i had to but i can't i can't touch money i'll be cheering uh against my bed if i bet on sergey spivak so it's a straight up pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound. He expects Oleinik to try to earn respect on the feet but Spivac will stick a jab in his face. Oleinik will shoot takedowns, but Spivac will stuff them and land elbows. In round two, Oleinik will shoot a bad takedown, Spivac will take mount and land ground and pound for the TKO.

second round TKO, ground and pound
"i'm gonna go with sergey spivak round two ground and pound tko"
LOSS vs Chris Daukaus
TKO (punches) R1 1:55 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi is impressed with Chris Daukaus's hand speed and accuracy, noting his quick knockouts of Parker Porter and Nascimento. He believes Daukaus only needs 20-30 seconds of pocket exchanges to knock out Oleinik, who is a liability standing. Levi acknowledges Oleinik's 45 submission wins but thinks Daukaus has the grappling skills to avoid submissions and keep the fight standing. He expects a first-round knockout and sees Daukaus as a rising heavyweight prospect.

first round knockout
"i'm going with chris dyches by first round starching of alexia olynyk getting into that top ten"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R2 0:21 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 35 of 42 83% 35 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:39
Aleksei Oleinik 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:27
Aleksei Oleinik 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:21
2 Derrick Lewis 1 22 of 23 95% 22 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Aleksei Oleinik 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 35 of 42 83% 34 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 30 of 35
Aleksei Oleinik 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 14
Aleksei Oleinik 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Derrick Lewis 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 21
Aleksei Oleinik 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Alexey Oleynik

Round 1
The headliner of the evening sees a fascinating style matchup between a knockout artist in Lewis (23-7, 1 NC; 14-5 UFC) against the submission wizardry of Oleynik (59-13-1, 8-4 UFC). This five-round heavyweight contest may very well end one of two ways, with Lewis one knockout away from the all-time UFC heavyweight record, while Oleynik could notch his 47th by tapout should he elicit a submission. Referee Herb Dean will be right there to make sure everything is copacetic as it all plays out, and the two large men – Lewis weighs 38 pounds more than his opponent – touch gloves to introduce themselves. Lewis opens with a head kick, and a hard one-two to hurt Oleynik and push him to the fence. Oleynik quickly sets up an Ezekiel choke, but he abandons it to try to gain a better position with his back to the fence. Lewis throws him down to the ground like Tim Boetsch’s hip toss, and he starts slamming the Russian in the head with punches. Oleynik sits up and looks for a leg, so Lewis spins out from on top to pop over to half guard. Oleynik ties him up from his back as he tries to sit up, but Lewis is content to press his full body weight down on his opponent. Oleynik gets back to his knees and ties up Lewis’ leg to land his own single and wind up on top. He gets to side guard with ease, and secures a scarf hold headlock and wrenches on Lewis’ neck. Lewis powers out of the bad spot and starts raining down punches, but Oleynik ties him back up and clings to him like Saran wrap. Oleynik reverses the position and gets back to side control, where he aims for a scarf hold headlock on the opposite side. He lets go to readjust, and Lewis wriggles and turns his head while Oleynik puts everything he has into the choke. Lewis appears unconcerned and rides it out as veins bulge on Oleynik’s forehead while he applies the torque. The Russian recommits to the choke, and Lewis is trapped but not entirely in danger. Oleynik bails on the choke and elects to take side control and set up a keylock. Time expires before he can land it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik

Round 2
Oleynik reaches with a front kick, and Lewis leaps at him with a flying knee.
A bomb of a right hand takes the legs out from the Russian, and as “The Black Beast” rains down punch after punch from on top, Oleynik turns to his side. Unleashing a barrage of nasty punches. Lewis smells blood and knows the finish is right around the corner. Lewis keeps clubbing Oleynik in the face until Dean has seen enough and stops the fight.
Lewis is now the all-time leader in heavyweight knockouts, scoring his 11th inside the Octagon. Lewis survived adversity and got the Russian out of there to end the night with style points. See you next week, for a much higher stakes heavyweight contest at UFC 252.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Alexey Oleynik R2 0:21 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Oleinik as an underdog, believing he can get the fight to the ground and secure a submission. He notes that Lewis has poor takedown defense and often rests on the ground, which could be dangerous against a submission specialist like Oleinik. However, he acknowledges Lewis's explosive power and ability to pop up from bottom, making this a tough call. He leans Oleinik by submission in the first round.

Oleinik by submission at plus 200 or plus 250; fight does not go to decision (minus 800); Lewis by KO at minus 150
"i'm gonna take alexia linux to win this fight um i do think he gets louis on the ground and louis is going to try to rest and and by the time you know lewis tries to get his rest …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win by knockout. He notes that Lewis has a tendency to lose the first two rounds but then come back with his signature 'black beast blitz' and knock out his opponent. He also mentions that Oleinik has a 7-10 minute window to get a submission, but if he doesn't, Lewis will likely finish him. Levi acknowledges that Oleinik is dangerous on the ground but believes Lewis's power is a different level.

"i'm gonna go with lewis to get the knockout win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Lewis has freakish power and can knock anyone out, but Oleinik is a dangerous submission artist who can get the fight to the ground. Lewis has shown the ability to get back to his feet, but Oleinik's jiu-jitsu is elite. The line at -265 is too wide; Oleinik offers value. Lewis likely wins by first-round KO, but it's not a bet.

Oleinik by submission, Oleinik moneyline +225
"I'm gonna go with Lewis to win by first round ko but definitely not a bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission via rear naked choke. He criticizes the oddsmakers for making Lewis such a big favorite, citing Lewis's close fights against Ivanov and Latifi. He believes Oleinik's grappling will be too much for Lewis, who loads up on big shots and leaves himself open for takedowns. He notes that Oleinik has a reach advantage and will transition from position to position, eventually taking Lewis's back.

first round submission, rear naked choke
"i think olynyk is going to go out there he's going to engage in the grappling situations and hold lewis up against the cage eventually get him down in a bit of a tangle"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 94 of 183 51% 149 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:53
Fabrício Werdum 0 53 of 83 63% 70 of 101 3 of 7 42% 1 1 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 54 of 94 57% 71 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Fabrício Werdum 0 25 of 37 67% 28 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Aleksei Oleinik 0 26 of 63 41% 40 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Fabrício Werdum 0 24 of 38 63% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
3 Aleksei Oleinik 0 14 of 26 53% 38 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:26
Fabrício Werdum 0 4 of 8 50% 13 of 18 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 94 of 183 51% 79 of 167 10 of 10 5 of 6 72 of 149 22 of 33 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 53 of 83 63% 27 of 52 16 of 21 10 of 10 34 of 60 16 of 20 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 54 of 94 57% 47 of 86 5 of 5 2 of 3 39 of 76 15 of 18 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 25 of 37 67% 14 of 24 7 of 9 4 of 4 17 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
2 Aleksei Oleinik 26 of 63 41% 21 of 58 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 53 4 of 10 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 24 of 38 63% 12 of 23 7 of 10 5 of 5 15 of 29 6 of 6 3 of 3
3 Aleksei Oleinik 14 of 26 53% 11 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Big Brady picks Fabricio Werdum, citing a favorable stylistic matchup due to Werdum's superior submission game and Oleinik's poor ground game. He expects Werdum to take Oleinik down early and finish with ground and pound or submission, likely in the first round. He notes the line at minus 320 is steep but believes it's a good matchup.

Werdum by first round TKO/submission; fight ends inside first round
"I like Verdoom here. Um, due to the fact that I think it's a good, uh, stylistic match up for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Daniel Levi picks Fabricio Werdum, stating he is the better striker and has the ground game to handle Oleinik's submissions. He notes Oleinik is reckless and makes mistakes, and that Werdum's improved striking and Thai clinch will be key. Levi expects Werdum to capitalize on Oleinik's errors and win inside the distance.

Werdum inside the distance
"I'm actually gonna go with Fabricio Vacaville or doom here to win this fight inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Matt picks Werdum but thinks the -300 line is too wide due to Werdum's long layoff and age. He believes Werdum has the advantage on the feet and can finish Oleinik in the second round, but he is hesitant to bet at the current price. He would consider a bet if the line drops to -250.

Werdum by second-round TKO, fight doesn't go to decision (-250)
"I'm gonna pick over doom to win here but that line is a little bit too wide for me"
Submission (armbar) R2 4:38 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 22 31% 25 of 46 3 of 3 100% 3 0 7:25
Maurice Greene 0 13 of 29 44% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 1 of 7 14% 5 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:13
Maurice Greene 0 3 of 6 50% 26 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Aleksei Oleinik 0 6 of 15 40% 20 of 35 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:12
Maurice Greene 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 22 31% 4 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 6
Maurice Greene 13 of 29 44% 10 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
Maurice Greene 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aleksei Oleinik 6 of 15 40% 3 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 5
Maurice Greene 10 of 23 43% 9 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Daniel picks Aleksei Oleinik via rear-naked choke finish, but admits he's been going back and forth on this fight. He notes that Oleinik has 40+ submissions and is a total badass, while Greene has power and length but questionable grappling. He says someone is most likely getting finished.

finish, rear-naked choke
"I'm gonna roll the dice flip a coin and I'm gonna land on Alexei Olynyk via rear-naked choke finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The host picks Maurice Greene to win by TKO, likely in the second round, but expresses low confidence, stating he doesn't trust Greene. He notes Greene's speed and footwork as advantages, but worries about Oleinik's jiu-jitsu and the possibility of both fighters gassing. He sees the fight as risky and is not planning to bet on it.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -675 considered too steep; over/under 1.5 rounds at -165 sketchy; Greene by TKO in second round predicted.
"I like green here to get the TK over Olynyk probably in the second round but it's a very risky fight I don't trust green"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The host is surprised this fight is on the main card but picks Maurice Greene. He notes Greene's size and difficulty to take down, and Oleinik's age (42) and history of KO losses. He predicts Greene will land a good combo on Oleinik's chin and finish him in the first round.

first round finish
"I could see Maurice green landing a good combo on his chin and getting him out of there in the first round"
LOSS vs Walt Harris
KO (knee and punches) R1 0:12 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Cody picks Ilir Latifi to win, highlighting his power and the favorable matchup. He notes that Oleinik has a compromised chin and that Latifi's big hooks could knock him out. He expects Latifi to either knock out Oleinik early or grind out a decision. He mentions that Latifi has been training at All-Stars in Sweden and looks motivated.

Latifi by KO +195/+200; Latifi by decision +250
"I just think stylistically he gets this job done even if it's a knockout or a boring decision regardless I still just think he gets the job done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Paul picks Ilir Latifi to win, citing his takedown ability and top control. He notes that Oleinik is unlikely to submit Latifi due to his lack of a neck, and that Latifi's power could lead to a knockout. He expects a slow, grinding fight but believes Latifi's style is a bad matchup for Oleinik. He is not betting due to emotional attachment to both fighters.

"I'm picking the sledgehammer I'm not going to be betting this fight because you know my heart's too invested on both sides"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, despite acknowledging the difficulty of submitting Latifi due to his lack of a neck. He believes Oleinik has the cardio advantage and can outlast Latifi, who hasn't knocked anyone out since 2016. He thinks Oleinik will win a decision by outworking Latifi with volume and grappling. He calls the plus money on Oleinik 'crazy' and bets on him.

Oleinik by decision
"Oleinik by decision is my pick... I think Oleinik has the gas and always kind of surprises with those weird shovel shots."