UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Age 46
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Guido Cannetti
3.44 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.84 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.27 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Randy Costa
6.53 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
7.58 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Guido Cannetti - Fight History
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:18 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:36
Guido Cannetti 0 2 of 5 40% 5 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:36
Guido Cannetti 0 2 of 5 40% 5 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2
Guido Cannetti 2 of 5 40% 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2
Guido Cannetti 2 of 5 40% 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo is very confident in Mario Bautista, citing his youth, speed, wrestling, and grappling advantage over the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti. He believes Bautista will win inside the distance and considers that the most valuable bet. He notes the odds are wide but thinks Bautista should be a much heavier favorite.

Mario Bautista inside the distance bet suggestion
"Mario Batista inside the distance is probably the most value you'll get on him at these odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady is very confident in Mario Bautista, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Bautista's wrestling and grappling look really good, and Cannetti has been finished four times by submission. Brady expects Bautista to get the fight down to the mat early and finish with a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Cannetti has power and Bautista's chin is in question.

win by submission in round 1
"give me Mario Batista to win this fight by first round submission and I think it makes it look pretty easy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody picks Bautista by submission, noting Cannetti's tendency to give up his back and get choked. He highlights Bautista's improved wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks Cannetti's brawling style will lead to a submission loss.

Bautista by submission +100
"I go Batista Batiste to buy submission which is plus 100. not a good price tag considering it's a submission prop but what I would think is the most likely outcome"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor picks Bautista confidently, noting that Bautista has become an aggressive bully who overwhelms opponents with pressure and chain wrestling. He acknowledges Cannetti's early explosiveness but believes Bautista's durability and pace will wear him down, leading to a finish in the second round or later.

Bautista opened -350, now -1025; Cannetti opened +285, now +639. Connor notes the odds are too wide and suggests Bautista by TKO/KO at +1600 might be worth a look.
"So Batista has got to be the pick. It'll be fun though."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is on a three-fight winning streak and looking career-best. Cannetti is 43 years old at bantamweight, which is a huge disadvantage. Bautista's physical transformation and finishing ability should be too much. I expect a dominant finish within 10 minutes, likely by submission. This is a favorable matchup for Bautista to continue his rise.

Bautista inside the distance, by submission
"Bautista is looking career best and I'm expecting him to go out there and get another win especially my finish I think it looks dominant as well and I think it happens within 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Bautista easily, noting Cannetti's age (43) and Bautista's improvements in grappling. He thinks Bautista can submit Cannetti, who has a history of getting choked out. He mentions a YOLO bet on Cannetti by first-round KO but prefers Bautista by submission.

Bautista by submission +100; mentions Cannetti by first-round KO at +3000 (moved to +1600)
"Bautista I guess for the purposes of picking would be my pick to win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, noting he is a 10-to-1 favorite but believes he should win. He highlights Bautista's recent performances, including a submission win over Keller and dominating Benito Lopez. He thinks Bautista is in his prime and will submit Cannetti.

by submission
"I'm gonna go with Mario Batista getting this one done by submission I think he'll take down Guido get his back and Serb him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista but is less confident than the odds suggest. He notes that Cannetti is a fast, powerful starter who could catch Bautista early, but Bautista's pressure and durability should take over as Cannetti fades. He compares it to Chandler vs Hooker, where either could win early but Bautista has the edge over time.

"I'm not that confident to be honest, it's like, this is basically Chandler hooker. ... I am going to take Batista because it's tough to pick the Kennedy knowing that despite all the success he could have early, he is …"
WIN vs Randy Costa
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.

Under 2.5 rounds; Guido Cannetti by KO in round 2
"I think Guido's getting stopped here so I got the the under sure to God this place not going 15 full minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision -400; Guido Cannetti round 2 KO at 25-1
"I think Costa wins I guess for the purposes of this show I'll pick Costa but I'm kind of interesting we'll see where the props land"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.

first round KO
"Give me Guido Cannetti... catch him early and put him away KO. Randy has no chin."
WIN vs Kris Moutinho
TKO (punches) R1 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 11 of 30 36% 8 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 28 of 44 63% 18 of 31 5 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 11 of 30 36% 8 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 28 of 44 63% 18 of 31 5 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.

"i will lean motino here just because of his durability i mean anybody who can take that kind of beating i just kind of lean on him there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.

"i'm gonna take moutinho hesitantly i'm definitely not betting it especially as a favorite"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.

"i'm gonna go chris matino"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.

Over 2.5 rounds at minus 130 is mentioned as a lean; Cannetti KO at plus 500 is noted as a hedge.
"I believe it's going to be Moutinho landing the crisper shots down the middle. I don't think he puts out Cannetti. So, I do think that we see Moutinho go out there and win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.

TKO or submission; underdog bet
"i'm going to wait until i put some money on guido connetti as an underdog here against chris moutinho i get that he took punishment for three rounds against o'malley but he's absolute garbage at fighting"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leomana Martinez 0 79 of 157 50% 88 of 169 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:07
Guido Cannetti 0 66 of 109 60% 68 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leomana Martinez 0 19 of 32 59% 21 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Guido Cannetti 0 27 of 37 72% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:28
2 Leomana Martinez 0 24 of 51 47% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Guido Cannetti 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Leomana Martinez 0 36 of 74 48% 43 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
Guido Cannetti 0 16 of 32 50% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leomana Martinez 79 of 157 50% 35 of 98 31 of 44 13 of 15 72 of 147 3 of 4 4 of 6
Guido Cannetti 66 of 109 60% 21 of 57 13 of 19 32 of 33 64 of 105 0 of 1 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leomana Martinez 19 of 32 59% 8 of 20 8 of 8 3 of 4 19 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 27 of 37 72% 5 of 11 6 of 9 16 of 17 25 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Leomana Martinez 24 of 51 47% 8 of 29 11 of 16 5 of 6 24 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 23 of 40 57% 8 of 22 4 of 7 11 of 11 23 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Leomana Martinez 36 of 74 48% 19 of 49 12 of 20 5 of 5 29 of 64 3 of 4 4 of 6
Guido Cannetti 16 of 32 50% 8 of 24 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Angelo picks Martinez, citing his solid power, aggression, and constant stance switches that complicate things for opponents. He notes Cannetti is over 40, losing by stoppage, and needs to get the fight to the ground to win, which is unlikely. The only concern is Martinez's headspace after his coach died, but he still sees a mismatch.

Martinez is -350 favorite; Angelo suggests chasing a first-round stoppage for better odds.
"i just really don't see amanda martinez having an issue here other than i can i have no idea what his headspace will be like"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his power in both hands and aggressive style. He notes that Cannetti is 41 years old, has been knocked out multiple times, and looked old in his last fight. Cody thinks Martinez's takedown defense is solid and that he will knock Cannetti out early, likely in round one.

fight doesn't go to decision (parlay piece); under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i'm expecting to see amanda martinez knockout uh probably in round one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Jacob picks Martinez, emphasizing his power that hits like a middleweight and Cannetti's flat-footed movement and age. He expects Martinez to dominate and likely flatline Cannetti inside two and a half minutes. He plans to bet on a first-round stoppage for better odds.

Jacob will place a bet on Martinez, likely a first-round stoppage prop for better odds than -350.
"i honestly think that martinez should and will uh dominate this fight and probably flatline uh guido inside of two and a half minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Lock picks Martinez by KO at -110, expecting a violent fight. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and poor cardio, leading to an early finish. Lock likes the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision props. He thinks Martinez's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges Cannetti can crack too.

under 1.5 rounds -105, fight doesn't go to decision -260, Martinez by KO -110
"i do think it's ultimately going to be martinez who gets the knockout here uh minus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Martinez, agreeing that he has power and that Cannetti is old and faded. He notes Martinez's wins over Ricky Turcios and Jose Johnson, showing he can finish good opponents. Paul thinks Martinez's takedown defense will keep the fight standing and lead to a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Martinez inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i think mana martinez is the clear and obvious choice here right he should go out there and he should be able to get the the first round knockout"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)

The Guru picks Mana Martinez, citing his youth, momentum, and knockout power against the older Guido Cannetti, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Martinez to start fast and finish by TKO in the first round. The Guru notes Cannetti's age (41) and history of being finished as key factors.

Martinez by TKO in round 1
"i'm gonna have to go with mana martinez here getting a finish i'll say he gets it done by tko in the first round"
LOSS vs Danaa Batgerel
KO (punches) R1 3:01 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danaa Batgerel 1 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danaa Batgerel 1 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danaa Batgerel 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 2 1 of 2 12 of 27 0 of 1 5 of 5
Guido Cannetti 11 of 23 47% 0 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 10 9 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danaa Batgerel 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 2 1 of 2 12 of 27 0 of 1 5 of 5
Guido Cannetti 11 of 23 47% 0 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 10 9 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Danaa Batgerel

Daniel picks Danaa Batgerel to win, but with caution. He notes that Cannetti is explosive in the first round but tends to fade if he faces adversity. He believes Batgerel can take over in the second and third rounds and win a decision, but it's contingent on him not getting badly hurt in the first.

Daniel says from a betting perspective there's a certain price limit, and he thinks it's accurately lined. He calls it a pass.
"I'll pick Batgerel but I don't want to say I think it's a pass way man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

Both fighters are aggressive strikers; Batgerel is more technical, Cannetti is a brawler. The fight likely ends inside the distance. The host prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at plus money rather than picking a side. He picks Cannetti by TKO but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

Under 2.5 rounds at +102 to +110.
"I'd rather bet the under two and a half which is probably what I'm gonna do as long as I get that plus money on it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Danaa Batgerel

The MMA Guru picks Danaa Batgerel based on his better UFC record (6-2) and youth advantage over the 40-year-old Guido Cannetti. He notes Cannetti is smaller with less reach and questions why he is still fighting at his age. He expects Batgerel to get the job done with his Asian power moves.

"I'm going with Dana Batgirl I think he's gonna get a job done Asian power moves are EV love EV"
LOSS vs Marlon Vera
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:31 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Nov 17, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 24 of 42 57% 37 of 56 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:48
Guido Cannetti 1 24 of 35 68% 36 of 48 2 of 2 100% 2 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 21 of 35 60% 34 of 49 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:32
Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 20 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
2 Marlon Vera 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Guido Cannetti 1 16 of 22 72% 16 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 24 of 42 57% 11 of 25 8 of 10 5 of 7 8 of 23 8 of 11 8 of 8
Guido Cannetti 24 of 35 68% 13 of 18 10 of 14 1 of 3 3 of 10 17 of 19 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 21 of 35 60% 9 of 19 8 of 10 4 of 6 6 of 19 7 of 8 8 of 8
Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 0 of 3 7 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 3 6 of 8 1 of 2
2 Marlon Vera 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 3 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 16 of 22 72% 13 of 15 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 7 11 of 11 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Guido Cannetti

Round 1
Vera pushes Cannetti backward with a body kick, but the “Ninja” comes back at Vera with a Thai clinch and a knee to the body. Vera turns the tables with a quick takedown; Cannetti throws up an armbar, then jumps back on his feet when Vera lifts him for a slam. After tagging Vera with a combination, it’s Cannetti’s turn to score a takedown, slamming “Chito” to the floor at the base of the fence. Vera slowly works his way back to his feet, and the bantamweights disengage inside the three-minute mark. Vera is forced to cover up again as Cannetti blitzes him with wild punching combinations and body kicks, unconcerned with any of Vera’s attempted counters. Cannetti misses on a punch to the body, allowing Vera to wrap him up and push him to the fence. Vera stomps on Cannetti’s feet, but it’s the Argentine hitting an outside trip to put Vera on his back a second time. Cannetti spends 30 seconds trying to break Vera’s posture and find an opening for some ground-and-pound. Eventually, Cannetti stands up and kicks at the legs of Vera, keeping the Ecuadorian grounded until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cannetti

Round 2
Vera attacks Cannetti with clinch knees, first to the body and then one to the head that sends “Ninja” to the canvas. As Cannetti stands up and drives on Vera’s legs, the Ecuadorian sizes him up for a guillotine and jumps guard. Cannetti frees himself from the choke, but after escaping to his feet, Vera keeps him trapped on the fence to tee off with more knees and punches. Vera reaps the leg of Cannetti and trips him to the ground, then
attaches himself to Cannetti’s back with a body triangle and forces him to tap out
with a lightning fast rear-naked choke.

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Guido Cannetti via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 1:31
WIN vs Diego Rivas
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 22 of 46 47% 26 of 50 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:04
Diego Rivas 0 25 of 53 47% 44 of 75 1 of 3 33% 1 1 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Diego Rivas 0 13 of 19 68% 25 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:37
2 Guido Cannetti 0 3 of 5 60% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:00
Diego Rivas 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:15
3 Guido Cannetti 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Diego Rivas 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 22 of 46 47% 10 of 23 7 of 17 5 of 6 8 of 31 13 of 14 1 of 1
Diego Rivas 25 of 53 47% 12 of 35 6 of 11 7 of 7 10 of 32 7 of 12 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
Diego Rivas 13 of 19 68% 9 of 14 2 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 3 5 of 8 7 of 8
2 Guido Cannetti 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Diego Rivas 4 of 6 66% 1 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Guido Cannetti 16 of 37 43% 9 of 22 5 of 12 2 of 3 6 of 26 10 of 11 0 of 0
Diego Rivas 8 of 28 28% 2 of 19 1 of 4 5 of 5 6 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kyung Ho Kang
Submission (triangle choke) R1 4:53 · UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Jan 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyung Ho Kang 0 3 of 11 27% 28 of 36 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:38
Guido Cannetti 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyung Ho Kang 0 3 of 11 27% 28 of 36 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:38
Guido Cannetti 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyung Ho Kang 3 of 11 27% 3 of 9 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
Guido Cannetti 19 of 39 48% 12 of 29 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 29 5 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyung Ho Kang 3 of 11 27% 3 of 9 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
Guido Cannetti 19 of 39 48% 12 of 29 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 29 5 of 5 5 of 5
Randy Costa - Fight History
LOSS vs Guido Cannetti
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.

Under 2.5 rounds; Guido Cannetti by KO in round 2
"I think Guido's getting stopped here so I got the the under sure to God this place not going 15 full minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision -400; Guido Cannetti round 2 KO at 25-1
"I think Costa wins I guess for the purposes of this show I'll pick Costa but I'm kind of interesting we'll see where the props land"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.

first round KO
"Give me Guido Cannetti... catch him early and put him away KO. Randy has no chin."
LOSS vs Tony Kelley
TKO (elbows) R2 4:15 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 31 of 65 47% 32 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:29
Randy Costa 0 82 of 169 48% 129 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Randy Costa 0 35 of 90 38% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
2 Tony Kelley 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Randy Costa 0 47 of 79 59% 79 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 31 of 65 47% 20 of 54 11 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0
Randy Costa 82 of 169 48% 26 of 93 43 of 62 13 of 14 27 of 93 32 of 42 23 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 16 of 37 43% 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0
Randy Costa 35 of 90 38% 6 of 48 23 of 35 6 of 7 17 of 64 18 of 26 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 24 4 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Costa 47 of 79 59% 20 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 7 10 of 29 14 of 16 23 of 34
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"
LOSS vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (punches) R2 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 64 of 184 34% 64 of 184 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Randy Costa 0 69 of 153 45% 69 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 0 33 of 106 31% 33 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Costa 0 57 of 123 46% 57 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Adrian Yañez 1 31 of 78 39% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Randy Costa 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 64 of 184 34% 41 of 146 6 of 19 17 of 19 58 of 172 0 of 0 6 of 12
Randy Costa 69 of 153 45% 61 of 144 5 of 6 3 of 3 69 of 153 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 33 of 106 31% 17 of 83 4 of 11 12 of 12 33 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 57 of 123 46% 50 of 115 4 of 5 3 of 3 57 of 123 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Adrian Yañez 31 of 78 39% 24 of 63 2 of 8 5 of 7 25 of 66 0 of 0 6 of 12
Randy Costa 12 of 30 40% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez because he is a technical striker with fast hands, power, and an incredible chin. He expects Yañez to win by knockout in the late first or early second round. He has already bet the over 1.5 rounds and the more/more on monkey knife fight, believing the fight will be active and go past the first round despite Costa's history of early finishes. He thinks the odds are a bit wide and the fight is more competitive than implied.

over 1.5 rounds bet; more/more on monkey knife fight
"i have the over on rounds anytime i see rounds set at one and a half i really look at it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by second-round knockout. He notes Yañez's power, volume, cardio, and durability (never knocked out), while Costa is a first-round finisher who fades if the fight extends. He highlights Costa's entire career has lasted about 12 minutes and he was finished in his only fight past the first round. He acknowledges Costa is live for an early finish but believes Yañez has more paths to victory.

Yañez by second round knockout
"i'll take giannis here i'll take him to win by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yanez, calling him a different level striker. He notes Yanez has never been finished by strikes and has a good chin. He thinks Costa is explosive but only dangerous in round one, and that Yanez's counter striking and boxing are clinical. He loaded up on Yanez at -170.

"the pick is yan as i just think he's just on a whole different level from a striking department"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi picks Adrian Yañez, emphasizing his smooth counter-striking, footwork, and head movement. He notes that Costa's wild style plays into Yañez's game, and that Yañez has a rock-solid chin and underrated ground game. Levi predicts a mid-second round TKO, as Costa lacks the experience to win a long battle and must finish early. He dismisses Costa's high-kick threat, stating Yañez has never been rocked.

predicts mid-second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with yanez here as well um i'm thinking probably mid second round tko"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Jacob picks Adrian Yañez because he is more technical and precise, while Randy Costa throws looping shots. He notes that Costa needs to use his length but doesn't throw straight punches. He also jokes that Costa's Twitter bio says 'professional bad decision maker,' which swayed him. He has Yañez in his DraftKings lineup and expects him to get the job done.

"i have uh janae's in my lineup and i think he's gonna win but that's just because i think he's just a little bit more technical a little bit more precise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez, praising his striking defense and counter-striking ability. He expects Yañez to weather Costa's early wild attacks and then find a knockout in the second round. He notes Costa's cardio issues and wild style play into Yañez's hands. He likes Yañez by KO at -110 and Yañez in round two at +425.

Yañez by KO -110; Yañez in round two +425
"adriana's by ko minus 110 makes the most sense here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Paul agrees, calling Yanez a top ticket play. He praises Yanez's slick counter punching, high guard, and ability to bait opponents. He notes Costa's only path is a bomb rush in the first round, and that Costa's social media focus on the peanut butter cup vs Dr Pepper meme might distract him. He thinks Yanez is a green version of Masvidal.

"janice is one of our guys i i imagine to me he feels like a top ticket play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The Guru picks Yañez for his superior technique and chin, contrasting with Costa's wildness and chin issues. He notes Costa's tendency to get clipped and his weight cut problems. He predicts a first-round KO via straight right hand as Costa loads up a switch kick. He also suggests betting on the fight ending in the first round.

first round KO; bet on fight ending in first round
"i'll say round one ko adrian yanez"
KO (head kick) R1 0:41 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Costa 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Journey Newson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Costa 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Journey Newson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Costa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Journey Newson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Costa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Journey Newson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.

Under 1.5 rounds
"give me cost to get the first round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Journey Newson

The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.

Journey Newson wins by submission in round 1; Randy Costa wins in round 1 prop (if betting Costa)
"I think we'll see journey newson go out there and just get costed down within that first round or sorry first minute and really start to work his brown belt."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.

first round KO
"I'm going to be going with Randa Koster getting it done in a wild exchange in the first round... randy koster ends it with a big shot finishing journey newson in the first round."
WIN vs Boston Salmon
TKO (punches) R1 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Costa 2 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Boston Salmon 0 12 of 22 54% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Costa 2 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Boston Salmon 0 12 of 22 54% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Costa 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 36 0 of 1 3 of 7
Boston Salmon 12 of 22 54% 4 of 13 7 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Costa 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 36 0 of 1 3 of 7
Boston Salmon 12 of 22 54% 4 of 13 7 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Brandon Davis
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:12 · UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Apr 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Davis 0 35 of 88 39% 40 of 93 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:16
Randy Costa 0 46 of 101 45% 49 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Davis 0 29 of 69 42% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Randy Costa 0 34 of 79 43% 36 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Brandon Davis 0 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Randy Costa 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Davis 35 of 88 39% 20 of 67 6 of 11 9 of 10 30 of 82 5 of 6 0 of 0
Randy Costa 46 of 101 45% 37 of 89 8 of 11 1 of 1 44 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Davis 29 of 69 42% 17 of 51 3 of 8 9 of 10 25 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Randy Costa 34 of 79 43% 27 of 70 6 of 8 1 of 1 32 of 76 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Brandon Davis 6 of 19 31% 3 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Costa 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.

Under 2.5 rounds; Guido Cannetti by KO in round 2
"I think Guido's getting stopped here so I got the the under sure to God this place not going 15 full minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision -400; Guido Cannetti round 2 KO at 25-1
"I think Costa wins I guess for the purposes of this show I'll pick Costa but I'm kind of interesting we'll see where the props land"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.

first round KO
"Give me Guido Cannetti... catch him early and put him away KO. Randy has no chin."