UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 47
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Randy Brown
4.49 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.33 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Francisco Trinaldo
3.13 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Randy Brown - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Gabriel Bonfim
KO R2 1:40 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Bonfim 1 35 of 64 54% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 33 of 87 37% 33 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Bonfim 0 24 of 43 55% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 19 of 61 31% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gabriel Bonfim 1 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Bonfim 35 of 64 54% 11 of 36 1 of 1 23 of 27 33 of 62 2 of 2 0 of 0
Randy Brown 33 of 87 37% 11 of 48 9 of 21 13 of 18 33 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Bonfim 24 of 43 55% 6 of 21 0 of 0 18 of 22 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Brown 19 of 61 31% 7 of 33 3 of 14 9 of 14 19 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gabriel Bonfim 11 of 21 52% 5 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 4 of 15 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-180); Brown (+150)

Round 1
We’re here. It’s the main event. Without a doubt, this is one of the headliners of all time. Welterweights grace the Octagon for the next five rounds or fewer, and at night’s end, only one of these two athletes will likely be ranked—right now, only Bonfim (18-1, 5-1 UFC) is for the UFC. Brown (20-6, 14-6 UFC) feels he has finally turned the corner, other than a pair of tough losses to Bryan Battle and Jack Della Maddalena holding him back from breaking out of the “action fighter” category of his division. Referee Mark Smith brings them to the middle to issue final instructions, stepping back to allow the athletes to touch ‘em up. They do. It’s on with the show.
The athletes are tentative to engage, stabbing out jabs and the occasional low kick as the bout begins. Brown slowly, steadily builds up a work rate with distance in his favor, but the Brazilian is still able to reach him with kicks. Brown checks one kick, but a few more land with audible thuds. Bonfim keeps battering the lead leg, so Brown kicks him in the chest to back him off. The Brazilian strides through to connect with another chopping kick, and Brown is struggling to react to it. When he kicks, Brown throws himself off-balance, as he his having a hard time putting his full weight on his lead calf. Bonfim keeps targeting it with impunity, and he uses it to open up jabs. The kicks by themselves are proving extremely effective, as Brown rushes forward after taking one and knees Bonfim in the sternum. Brown wings a left hand, and he has to switch stances from the damage to his limb.
Bonfim kicks the front leg when available, catching Brown before Brown can punch him. The calf of Brown is swelling and welted just three minutes into the bout, and Brown’s power is already declining due to his struggles planting on his lead wheel. Bonfim works his way in through the gangly arms of his adversary to tag him with punches, with the leg kick rarely far away. Brown rattles off a one-two, but Bonfim’s low kicks have made Brown limp. The Brazilian chambers and fires a low kick on the other leg, nearly knocking Brown down. Brown goes for his own calf kick, and it gets checked hard. Brown bounces on his heels before doubling up on a jab to hurl a right hand behind it, and Bonfim sways with it and resets. A calf kick from Bonfim is so immediately effective that Brown leaps at him with his knee out, hand extended, and his finger jams in Bonfim’s eye socket. Luckily, Bonfim takes a few seconds to clear his vision, and they resume and stay generally out of range until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim

Round 2
Brown leads behind his jab to start off the round and keep his distance, although his front kick reaches out to cover much more ground. He uses it to set up a right hand, and strings several strikes behind it to the body and head. Bonfim counters and reaches his man with a pair of left hands. Brown gets up close to trade hands, and Bonfim meets him in the middle and ends his combo with a calf kick. He drives home a kick a bit higher on the thigh, and rips a right hand that Brown barely shoulder rolls in time. Bonfim doubles up on his chopping kick, and Brown is not a happy camper just six-and-a-half minutes into their fight. Bonfim flicks out a jab, and Brown ducks down to throw back a right hand. Bonfim answers with a crushing knee on the jaw, and Brown falls to his back with his hands at his side, the back of his melon clattering off the Octagon floor. On first glance, it appeared to be a double knockdown because Bonfim hits the canvas as well, but it was because he threw himself off-balance tossing the knee. Smith sprints over to stop the fight, with Brown not defending himself, but Brown rolls to his side and raises a ruckus that it was an early stoppage. He is cooled down quickly as replays show this was probably a fair and just stoppage—those that bet on Brown may disagree—but some fans, media and commentator Dominick Cruz express frustration that Brown did not have any more time to defend himself or possibly recover. The winning Brazilian calls for just one name: Colby Covington, whom he says he will retire. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Randy Brown R2 1:40 via TKO (Knee)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown because he believes Brown is the better striker with great range and solid takedown defense. He notes that Gabriel Bonfim struggled with takedowns against Wonderboy and that Brown's length and boxing from the outside will be key. He also mentions that Brown was screwed in a previous decision and is a very good fighter.

"I'm going with Randy Brown here. Especially if he can drag this fight out. I also think Randy Brown got screwed in that decision against Bryan Battle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady sees this as Bonfim early or Brown late. He notes Bonfim has power and an opportunistic submission game, and Brown has been submitted and knocked out before. He thinks Bonfim can get an early finish, possibly by first-round submission, but if it goes to the third round, Brown will take over. He mentions a potential live bet on Brown.

first round submission, live bet on Brown
"I'll say Bon Fem gets it gets it early and wins this fight by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody thinks Bonfim's cardio is suspect in a five-round fight and that Brown's length, straight punches, and volume will pose problems as the fight goes on. He notes Bonfim's takedowns are explosive early but fade, and Brown can survive early rounds and take over later. He prefers to bet Brown live after the first round rather than straight up.

"I'm just going to take Randy Brown. But live betting him is going to be way better than the pick right now."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Lucrative James picks Gabriel Bonfim to win, but he is not confident. He notes Bonfim's strong first round and submission threat (72% of wins via submission), but questions his cardio and ability to finish Randy Brown. He expects Bonfim to win round one and then edge out a decision, as Brown's style may not pressure Bonfim into gassing. He also mentions a potential over bet or goes to decision prop.

goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Gabriel Bomb theme cuz I'm picking him to win round one and then he only needs to win one out of the next two rounds to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

The host expects chaos and considers the under 2.5 rounds at plus money. He believes Bonfim will drag Brown to the ground and use his superior BJJ to secure a submission within two and a half rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds (+ money), submission
"I think it's just a matter of time before Bomb Fume drags Brown to the ground and utilizes his superior BJJ advantage. And that should allow him to wrap up a submission and force the tap like I said within …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim but has no interest in the minus 180 price. He thinks Bonfim's cardio has improved and he can get a finish early, possibly by submission or knockout. He suggests betting the under 2.5 rounds as a better play than the moneyline.

under 2.5 rounds
"Bonfim is going to be the pick for me. I think he probably does get the chin or catch his chin or find takedowns and work his BJJ."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The Guru picks Randy Brown to win by third-round TKO. He believes Brown's experience and striking will be key, especially if he survives Bonfim's early grappling. He notes Bonfim's tendency to fade if he doesn't get a quick submission, and Brown's ability to stuff takedowns and pick him apart at range.

round 3 TKO
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown getting this one done in TKO fashion. Round two or three. Probably round three."
WIN vs Nicolas Dalby
KO R2 1:39 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 54 of 114 47% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 1 26 of 74 35% 40 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 22 of 52 42% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nicolas Dalby 1 15 of 39 38% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
2 Randy Brown 1 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 54 of 114 47% 45 of 103 5 of 7 4 of 4 54 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 26 of 74 35% 12 of 52 1 of 3 13 of 19 25 of 72 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 22 of 52 42% 19 of 48 1 of 2 2 of 2 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 15 of 39 38% 6 of 23 0 of 1 9 of 15 14 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Randy Brown 32 of 62 51% 26 of 55 4 of 5 2 of 2 32 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 11 of 35 31% 6 of 29 1 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-238), Dalby (+195)

Round 1
A clash of well-traveled welterweights keeps the main card pushing. Looking to get back in the win column, Brown (19-6, 13-6 UFC) will have to outlast the ultra-durable Dane Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC; 7-4-1, 1 NC UFC) as the latter has never been finished. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready should this go the full duration, and he commences the nonsense-free bout as Brown sprints at his opponent without a glove touch in sight. Brown pulls back before crashing into his opponent, and he repositions himself to his preferred distant striking range with significant reach in his favor on the hands and legs. He uses those long arms to set up jabs and stay away from Dalby’s reaching left hook, but the slapping kick from Dalby is effective on the front leg. He goes for it two more times before having to reset and absorb a right hand on the chin. Dalby gets off with another kick, and Brown freezes him with a clubbing right hook. The Dane gathers himself and slings back, but the only one that lands is his low kick on the calf. Brown leaves himself wide open and is skipped with a left hand on the temple. Frustrated by the strike, “Rude Boy” puts everything he has into a left and a vicious right hand, not only staggering Brown but completely shattering his nose like Marsha and the football. Eternally tough, Dalby manages to bounce off the fencing and swing back, but he is compromised from a damage and breathing perspective. Brown does not go for broke, instead picking his shots carefully, and he inflicts further harm and swells up Dalby’s left eye. Dalby complains about an eye poke, and Peterson tells Brown to not leave his fingers outstretched. Brown acknowledges this and wings a right hand, only to get belted with a massive hook that knocks him off his feet. Dalby pounces, blood pouring from his destroyed nose, and he works Brown over with short ground strikes. Dalby uses his arm to control Brown, and he drops down one more elbow before the bell. The doctors are quick to assess Dalby’s condition, and they appear to partially reset his beak while tending to it. It probably will not stay that way for long when getting punched again in the next round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brown

Round 2
Dalby is good to go, giving Peterson a thumbs-up even as his left eye is nearly closed. He is fired up, rushing after “Rude Boy” with swarming punches and swinging kicks. Brown flicks out jabs and front kicks, allowing Dalby to buzz past him, and he punctuates a combo with a hard body kick. Dalby strikes the front leg and comes up short with an overhand right, and Brown continues to pepper the face with jabs and a mean-spirited front kick. Brown’s jab keeps Dalby at bay until Dalby has had enough of taking them, walking through a knee to the body and launching a huge right hand. Brown bounces off the fence, in trouble but still in the fight, and he separates and backpedals. Dalby continues crashing towards his opponent, launching big right hands that force Brown to take desperate measures to stay out of danger. Brown grabs hold of Dalby in a brief clinch to turn him around and his back to the wall, and he measures his target with a step-in knee and a short but sweet right hand directly on the jaw that buckles Dalby’s knees. Dalby recognizes this and bounces on them to try to shake it off, and Brown uncorks a nasty right hand on the jaw that hurts “Danish Dynamite” badly. Dalby uses the fence behind him to stay upright, and Brown waits for Dalby to stand straight up and smashes him in the face with a ferocious overhand right and a speedy left to follow. Dalby not only takes them on the chin but fires back with his own short salvo, catching Brown but taking some punishment on the way in. The 40-year-old has to take a second to step back and assess his condition, and he evades a massive uppercut by a matter of millimeters. Brown keeps swinging, ignoring anything coming back his direction and unloading a nuclear missile of a right hand that explodes on the temple and puts Dalby down once and for all. Brown walks away, saluting his fallen adversary, while Peterson rushes in along with a doctor to check on Dalby who is crumpled in a heap. “Knockout of the Year,” you have a new contender as Dalby had never been finished as a professional and he is laying down face-first in a pool of his own blood. What an incredible knockout, concluding a titanic brawl that will remain on highlight reels for years to come. Dalby comes to, and he is able to applaud Brown for his handiwork.

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Nicolas Dalby R2 1:39 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, speed, technical striking, and high fight IQ. He notes that Nicolas Dalby relies on cardio and weird breathing, but Brown should piece him up and avoid danger. The only concern is a rogue judge who might appreciate Dalby's pressure, but Brown is the cleaner fighter.

"Randy Brown is a high IQ fighter with good technical striking. And I think Randy Brown pieces up Nicholas Dolby."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, reach advantage, and the big cage favoring his range striking. He expects Brown to pick Dalby apart over three rounds and win a decision. He notes Brown often makes fights closer than expected, but still favors him.

fight goes to decision
"Brown and Brown by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby because of his relentless pressure and drive to win rounds, contrasting with Randy Brown's inconsistency and tendency to lose focus. Dalby's multi-layered pressure, durability, and strength will make the fight miserable for Brown, who often gets cornered and loses. Connor notes that Brown has all the tools but lacks the discipline to use them consistently.

"I'm going to take Dolby. Yeah, I'm going to take Dolby to just for the, that sheer drive to win rounds that Randy Brown simply does not have."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The host believes Dalby's reliance on his hardware will deteriorate at age 40, allowing Brown to showcase flaws and batter Dalby from distance for a decision win.

"I believe his reliance on his hardware is going to start to deteriorate allowing Brown to showcase those flaws in DB's game and we'll see a classic Brown performance where he batters Dobby from distance eventually winning this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, citing his improved savvy in three-round fights and ability to handle Dalby's pressure. He notes Brown's reach advantage and that Dalby's head kick won't work on a taller opponent. He expects Brown to win by decision or late TKO, as Dalby is older and has more wear and tear.

"I'm going to go Randy Brown. I think he's picked up some like savvy techniques to sort of more educatedly get through a 29 28 that some of these other prospects just haven't seen when they go up against Nicholas …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Zane picks Dalby, agreeing that Dalby's relentless pressure and ability to make fights ugly will overwhelm Brown, who is prone to making poor decisions and getting cornered. Zane points out that Brown's loss to Brian Battle is a blueprint for how Dalby can win. Dalby may not have the tools to dominate, but his drive and consistency will earn him rounds.

"I would take, I will take the drive over the tools, frankly."
LOSS vs Bryan Battle
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Battle 0 60 of 111 54% 80 of 135 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:46
Randy Brown 0 57 of 110 51% 109 of 175 0 of 6 0% 0 0 7:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Battle 0 21 of 45 46% 29 of 56 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Randy Brown 0 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
2 Bryan Battle 0 15 of 29 51% 21 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:56
Randy Brown 0 22 of 41 53% 56 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:37
3 Bryan Battle 0 24 of 37 64% 30 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Randy Brown 0 21 of 38 55% 35 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Battle 60 of 111 54% 32 of 79 22 of 26 6 of 6 49 of 96 11 of 15 0 of 0
Randy Brown 57 of 110 51% 20 of 64 31 of 38 6 of 8 27 of 76 30 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Battle 21 of 45 46% 11 of 32 9 of 12 1 of 1 19 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 31 45% 4 of 17 9 of 11 1 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Bryan Battle 15 of 29 51% 11 of 25 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
Randy Brown 22 of 41 53% 6 of 23 13 of 15 3 of 3 7 of 25 15 of 16 0 of 0
3 Bryan Battle 24 of 37 64% 10 of 22 10 of 11 4 of 4 17 of 28 7 of 9 0 of 0
Randy Brown 21 of 38 55% 10 of 24 9 of 12 2 of 2 9 of 24 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Angelo picks Bryan Battle, believing his forward pressure and dirty boxing will frustrate the more technical Randy Brown. He notes Battle's improvements and work ethic, but acknowledges he gets hit a lot. Angelo thinks the clash of styles favors Battle, as he can brawl the boxer. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if Battle's odds drop to -150.

If odds drop to -150, will bet
"I am going to pick Brian battle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Cody picks Battle, citing his power and improving skills. He notes Brown's tendency to struggle against pressure fighters and thinks Battle will land big shots. He expects a knockout win for Battle.

Battle by knockout
"Battle by knockout is on the table."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Connor is confident in Battle because his new pressure-fighting style is the exact antidote to Randy Brown. He notes that Brown has historically struggled against pressure fighters who are willing to eat shots and counter, as seen in his losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Vicente Luque. Connor believes Battle's aggression, power, and willingness to trade will overwhelm Brown, who tends to hit the fence and fall apart. He also points out that Battle's recent performances show a clear, winning game plan.

"I gotta pick battle here 100 percent brian battle 100 percent this feels like his kind of fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel picks Brown as an underdog, citing his experience, reach, and cleaner technique. He believes Battle's competition has been weak and that Brown's length and footwork will be too much. He expects Brown to pick Battle apart.

"I think it's Randy Brown's time. I think he's going to set back Brian Battle."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Battle's aggressiveness in the clinch and grappling will break down Randy Brown and lead to a second or third round finish.

finish in rounds 2-3
"I believe the aggressiveness in the clinch and grappling realm of battle will allow him to break down Randy Brown and eventually lead to a second or third round finish for Brian battle"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Paul picks Battle, emphasizing his momentum and power. He notes Brown's age and suspect chin, and thinks Battle's pressure will be too much. He expects a finish inside the distance.

"Battle for me, Battle potentially inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Battle, citing his volume, hustle, and cardio. He thinks Battle will out-volume Brown on the feet and that Brown lacks takedown threats to mix in. He notes Brown has lost close decisions before and that lesser fighters have made it close with Brown. He predicts a close 29-28 decision, possibly split.

"I'm gonna go with Brian battle I think he's got that next thing that puts him over Fighters that are slightly lesser"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Zane also confidently picks Battle, agreeing that his pressure style is the key to beating Brown. He notes that Brown has always struggled against fighters who walk him down and put combinations together against the fence. Zane highlights that Battle has evolved from a reactive fighter to an aggressive pressure fighter, and that this new approach makes him a dangerous matchup for Brown. He believes Battle will overwhelm Brown with volume and power.

"I 100 percent taking brian battle here."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 67 of 141 47% 89 of 166 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:42
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 26 of 76 34% 42 of 94 4 of 7 57% 1 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 34 of 71 47% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Randy Brown 0 8 of 18 44% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:32
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 3 of 7 42% 19 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:52
3 Randy Brown 0 25 of 52 48% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 67 of 141 47% 50 of 120 5 of 8 12 of 13 61 of 133 2 of 2 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 26 of 76 34% 8 of 50 3 of 9 15 of 17 24 of 73 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 34 of 71 47% 24 of 60 2 of 3 8 of 8 33 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 9 of 34 26% 2 of 22 3 of 6 4 of 6 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 8 of 18 44% 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Randy Brown 25 of 52 48% 19 of 44 2 of 3 4 of 5 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 14 of 35 40% 4 of 22 0 of 3 10 of 10 13 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown but with reduced confidence after studying Elizeu Zaleski. He believes Brown's length and range striking will keep him safe, and that Zaleski is chinny and can be dropped. However, he acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and ability to rally, so he leaves Brown out of the safety parlay.

"Randy Brown Remains the pick but I'm telling you my gut reaction was all right safety parlay Randy Brown and then I was like I'll leave him out of the safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady is fading Randy Brown, expecting the fight to go to decision. He thinks Brown won't shoot takedowns or get an early finish, and doesn't expect crazy volume. He notes if there is a finish, it likely comes from Zaleski dos Santos. He is comfortable staying away from Brown.

Fight goes to decision, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by decision or late finish
"fade is gonna be Randy Brown 8,500 I don't think he's finishing uh dos santoso Santos early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown but is hesitant, acknowledging Zaleski's danger. He likes Brown's length, jab, and game plan but notes Brown has slowed down and his defensive grappling is suspect. Cody worries that Zaleski's power and forward pressure could sway judges. He plans to keep Brown low on parlays and might switch to Zaleski after weigh-ins.

"I think I'm going to go with Brown... but I fully recognize that Zaleski is going to be dangerous... it's going to be close and contentious."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff, emphasizing that Zaleski dos Santos relies on distance striking and leg kicks, but Brown's reach and takedown ability neutralize that. He sees Brown piecing him up from distance and potentially taking him down. Vreeland notes Brown is crafty everywhere and can adapt to any scenario.

"I think Brown's gonna piece him up from distance he's probably gonna put the pressure on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel likes Brown's recent confidence and footwork, and thinks Zaleski's chin is declining. He expects Brown to find openings with his jab and straight right, possibly getting a first-round KO. He laid -160 for two units.

"I actually took Randy Brown here minus 160"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Jeff Fox picks Randy Brown, citing his size advantage (4 inches height, 5 inches reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Brown is sneaky good, has no real weaknesses, and can win on the feet or with takedowns. Fox believes Zaleski dos Santos will struggle to deal with Brown's reach and pressure, and that Brown can mix in wrestling to keep things interesting.

"give me the rude boy sneaky good fighter... I think the size is going to be a big issue here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host expects Brown to use his size, reach, and footwork to keep Zaleski at range and win a decision. Zaleski's inactivity and age are concerns, and his unorthodox style may not overcome Brown's disciplined jab and movement. Brown's recent improvements in range management should allow him to cruise to a decision victory.

"Give me Brown and Brown by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul leans toward Zaleski as a dog, citing his forward pressure, damaging blows, and ability to land bigger shots. He notes Brown's style is conservative and may not impress judges, while Zaleski's aggression and power could sway them. Paul mentions Zaleski's age (37) but says he still throws heat and has good cardio. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and likes the plus money.

"I feel like the bigger shots, the forward pressure, the live crowd... Zaleski is a dog with a shot here at plus 150 in a fight that I could see being pretty 50/50."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, believing his height and reach will trouble Zaleski dos Santos. He notes that Zaleski struggles against taller opponents and is older (37) with potential decline. Brown has good boxing at range and recent TKO wins. He predicts Brown by TKO.

Brown by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown I really like this matchup for him"
KO (punches) R1 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 1 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 13 of 46 28% 6 of 33 1 of 5 6 of 8 12 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1
Muslim Salikhov 10 of 22 45% 0 of 9 1 of 2 9 of 11 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 13 of 46 28% 6 of 33 1 of 5 6 of 8 12 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1
Muslim Salikhov 10 of 22 45% 0 of 9 1 of 2 9 of 11 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-245), Salikhov (+200)

Round 1
A killer welterweight matchup originally scheduled for UFC 296 in December, rescheduled due to Brown falling ill, now blesses “UFC Vegas 85.” While Brown and Salikhov lose the full-arena vibe, they do see their scrap promoted from curtain-jerker to feature fight. Lubbock, Texas’ own Kerry Hatley draws his final referee assignment of the night. The “Rude Boy” and “King of Kung Fu” immediately begin exchanging kicks. Salikhov goes low with quick calf kicks, which Brown counters with long flicking front kicks to the midsection. Salikhov tries a spinning wheel kick which falls short, but had murderous speed on it. A minute and a half in, not much has landed outside of low kicks, but it feels as though either man might bust this fight—and maybe his foe—wide open at any moment. Salikhov’s chopping kicks to Brown’s lead leg are starting to land with increasing frequency and force. Brown reaches out with his left hand and the extended fingers swipe Salikhov’s eye. The two touch hands in recognition of the foul before Hatley even calls time, but Salikhov does take his time to blink it out. They go back to work and Brown stocks out a fast jab, feints with his right hip and then comes back with a kick from the other side.
Out of nowhere, Brown crushes Salikhov with a jab and a blistering right cross. Salikhov goes down and Brown appears to hesitate before following up. With no stoppage forthcoming Brown lands a single standing-to-ground right on the turtled Russian, and that’s enough to spur Hatley into action.
Highlight-reel knockout from Randy Brown.

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Muslim Salikhov R1 3:17 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his length and range management. He notes that Muslim Salikhov is dangerous but slowing down at 39, losing cardio and power. He expects Brown to use his reach, work takedowns, and out-technique the aging veteran.

"Randy Brown's going to be the pick I'm pretty confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He notes that Brown is younger, bigger, has a massive reach advantage, better cardio, and better grappling. He questions Salikhov's age (believes he's older than 39) and notes his low volume, poor cardio, and grappling holes. Brady has been burned by Brown as a favorite before but thinks this is a good matchup.

second round, submission (club and sub)
"I'm going to take Brown here um last time these two fought I did pick like a club and sub I'll stick with that give me Randy Brown Club and sub second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown, citing Salikhov's age (39), poor cardio, and low volume. Brown's reach and movement should keep him safe, and he expects Brown to win a decision or possibly a late finish. He notes Salikhov's only path is an early KO.

Randy Brown by decision
"I'm gonna take Randy Brown probably by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown uses his long reach and distance striking to pick opponents apart, and should be able to circle away from Salikhov's power. Salikhov is 39 and slowing down, with a speed disadvantage. Brown's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet if taken down will be key. The host expects Brown to win decisively by decision.

"I think we'll see brown win this fight pretty decisively and I think it comes in the form of him outp pointing outworking and out striking salikov on the feed on route to a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, agreeing with Cody. He notes Brown's 9-inch reach advantage and Salikhov's decline. He likes Brown by decision at +120 but says the market is accurate and he may not bet it heavily.

Randy Brown by decision +120
"Randy Brown by decision I mean it's plus 120 plus 125 like definitely gets you off of that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Muslim Salikhov, predicting a late TKO. He notes Salikhov is 39 and has looked his age, while Brown has an 8-inch reach advantage. He believes Brown can keep Salikhov at range with jabs, teeps, and low kicks, and that Salikhov's power is limited to a few shots. He trusts Brown's ability to avoid Salikhov's right hand, as he did against Khaos Williams.

late TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown over Muslim salikov... I am going to go with Randy Brown actually getting a late TKO here."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 64 of 134 47% 78 of 156 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:47
Wellington Turman 0 55 of 105 52% 96 of 153 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Wellington Turman 0 25 of 52 48% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Randy Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 28 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Wellington Turman 0 12 of 18 66% 42 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Randy Brown 0 18 of 35 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Wellington Turman 0 18 of 35 51% 28 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 64 of 134 47% 21 of 85 17 of 23 26 of 26 53 of 121 11 of 13 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 55 of 105 52% 19 of 60 10 of 14 26 of 31 43 of 90 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 31 of 69 44% 10 of 46 7 of 9 14 of 14 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 25 of 52 48% 5 of 26 2 of 3 18 of 23 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 15 of 30 50% 3 of 17 3 of 4 9 of 9 5 of 20 10 of 10 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 12 of 18 66% 4 of 10 4 of 4 4 of 4 7 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Randy Brown 18 of 35 51% 8 of 22 7 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 18 of 35 51% 10 of 24 4 of 7 4 of 4 12 of 27 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo is confident in Randy Brown, citing his length, power, takedown defense, and BJJ. He expects Brown to stay on the outside and jab, avoiding a ground game. He notes Wellington Turman's striking looked good in his last fight but doesn't think it will be enough against Brown's reach and skills.

"Randy is one of my more confident picks here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing a significant striking advantage with a six-inch reach advantage. He notes Turman's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Andrew Sanchez. He acknowledges Turman's path to victory via wrestling but believes Brown's grappling is good enough to defend. He predicts a first-round knockout, especially if Turman has a bad weight cut.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say round knocks out willing to determine here I think it does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown, noting his speed and linear striking. He expects Turman to gas after the first round and Brown to take over. He mentions Turman's poor takedown accuracy and cardio issues.

"I think Randy Brown will be able to dance around this guy and tee off when need be."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor believes Randy Brown should win this fight easily. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Connor also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.

"I think there's just a lot of room for error. That's where Randy Brown and that means a lot of room for fun."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Levi picks Randy Brown, citing his length, skill, and experience. He notes Brown's occasional showboating and chin questions but thinks he is the more skilled fighter. He is not laying -220 due to Brown's inconsistency and Turman's danger, but picks Brown to win.

Pass on betting; picks Brown.
"I do think Randy Brown's the more skilled fighter so I am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host picks Randy Brown to win by decision. He believes Brown's slick striking and distance management will be too much for Turman, who struggles to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Turman's grappling advantage is nullified if he can't get the fight to the ground, and expects Brown to pick him apart from range.

"give me Randy Brown to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing his speed and reach advantage. He expects Brown to use his jab and movement to win a decision, though he notes Turman's strength and potential grappling. He considers live betting if Turman wins the first round.

Live betting considered.
"I'm gonna take him by decision but turman's also been ko'd a few times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The Guru picks Randy Brown, expressing concern about Wellington Turman moving down to welterweight. He believes Brown has a clear skill advantage on the feet and that Turman's weight cut will leave him vulnerable. He predicts Brown will pick Turman apart with knees and elbows in the clinch and finish by TKO in the second round after Turman fails takedown attempts.

Predicts TKO in the second round.
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown getting a TKO here at some point in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane agrees that Randy Brown should win. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Zane also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.

"I think there's just a lot of room for error. That's where Randy Brown and that means a lot of room for fun."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)

Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

"Jack's gonna be the pick he's probably a safe pick I just hope he fights his fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think he does knock him out at some point in this fight he's gonna be jacked elementalina I'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

"I really like Jack Della and keep in mind I bet against him on his contended series debut... I was so unbelievably impressed with what I saw"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

"I think Jack will close that distance without too much issue get off his strikes and eventually find that knockout and put Randy Brown out probably within the first 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

"I think Jack Della is a rightful favorite in this spot uh I don't really play minus 300s and these types of positions"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

first round TKO; odds comment: should be -180, not -250
"I gotta go with him winning this one and finishing Randy Brown by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
Francisco Trinaldo - Fight History
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 60 of 141 42% 65 of 148 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:38
Francisco Trinaldo 0 40 of 67 59% 82 of 111 1 of 4 25% 0 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 1 23 of 49 46% 27 of 53 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:38
Francisco Trinaldo 0 9 of 15 60% 13 of 19 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
2 Randy Brown 0 25 of 69 36% 25 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Francisco Trinaldo 0 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
3 Randy Brown 0 12 of 23 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Trinaldo 0 12 of 15 80% 47 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 60 of 141 42% 30 of 101 10 of 16 20 of 24 56 of 136 0 of 1 4 of 4
Francisco Trinaldo 40 of 67 59% 20 of 44 9 of 12 11 of 11 33 of 59 0 of 1 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 23 of 49 46% 8 of 28 2 of 5 13 of 16 21 of 46 0 of 1 2 of 2
Francisco Trinaldo 9 of 15 60% 1 of 6 3 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 25 of 69 36% 15 of 55 6 of 9 4 of 5 25 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francisco Trinaldo 19 of 37 51% 8 of 24 6 of 8 5 of 5 19 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Randy Brown 12 of 23 52% 7 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 10 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Francisco Trinaldo 12 of 15 80% 11 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 7
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Cody picks Trinaldo as a plus money underdog, believing the line should be closer to -170/+150. He argues that Trinaldo is very good at making opponents fight at his pace and that Brown's boxing is not as functional as it seems. He expects a close fight and wants to be holding the plus 270 ticket if it goes to decision. He plans to bet Trinaldo and may wait for a better price at weigh-ins.

Trinaldo moneyline +270; may wait for better price
"I'm picking Grandpa t on the program here I will be betting Grandpa t"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Randy Brown by decision, citing Brown's significant reach advantage, improved striking, and ability to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Trinaldo. He acknowledges Trinaldo's durability and winning streak but believes Brown's superior technique and youth will prevail. He notes that Trinaldo has never been knocked down and hasn't been submitted since 2017, so a decision is the most likely outcome.

Brown by decision +125
"Brown by decision plus 125 because trinaldo like you said hasn't been submitted in a really long time and never been knocked down"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru sees this as a complete mismatch, citing Randy Brown's significant advantages in height, reach, and athleticism over the 44-year-old Trinaldo. He expects Brown to use volume striking from distance and possibly mix in wrestling, similar to his win over Cowboy Oliveira. He believes Trinaldo's only path is an early knockout, but Brown's activity and youth should overwhelm him. He calls it a 'free betting boost' and includes Brown in his parlay.

included in parlay with Barcelos and Castaneda
"This is a complete mismatch to me... Randy Brown by whatever you want to pick."
WIN vs Danny Roberts
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Trinaldo 0 80 of 124 64% 91 of 137 0 of 1 0% 1 0 4:21
Danny Roberts 0 36 of 118 30% 44 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Trinaldo 0 23 of 37 62% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Danny Roberts 0 16 of 57 28% 16 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Francisco Trinaldo 0 34 of 48 70% 41 of 57 0 of 1 0% 1 0 3:14
Danny Roberts 0 7 of 17 41% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Francisco Trinaldo 0 23 of 39 58% 25 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Danny Roberts 0 13 of 44 29% 19 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Trinaldo 80 of 124 64% 62 of 102 16 of 20 2 of 2 51 of 86 21 of 26 8 of 12
Danny Roberts 36 of 118 30% 15 of 92 12 of 15 9 of 11 27 of 103 8 of 14 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Trinaldo 23 of 37 62% 15 of 27 8 of 10 0 of 0 20 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0
Danny Roberts 16 of 57 28% 6 of 44 4 of 7 6 of 6 15 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Francisco Trinaldo 34 of 48 70% 28 of 40 5 of 7 1 of 1 14 of 21 12 of 15 8 of 12
Danny Roberts 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 10 3 of 6 1 of 1
3 Francisco Trinaldo 23 of 39 58% 19 of 35 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 0
Danny Roberts 13 of 44 29% 4 of 33 7 of 7 2 of 4 9 of 38 4 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Angelo picks Francisco Trinaldo, continuing to ride the Trinaldo train. He likes the matchup because Danny Roberts won't initiate takedowns and has poor takedown defense. He acknowledges Trinaldo's age but believes his chin is still intact, though he notes Roberts has the power to test it.

"I like ronaldo to stay in robert's face and grind out a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Danny Roberts

Big Brady picks Danny Roberts to win by decision, but he is leaning and not confident. He notes that Trinaldo is 43 years old and small for welterweight, while Roberts is nine years younger, taller, and has a reach advantage. However, Roberts has shown poor fight IQ and durability issues, being finished in all his losses. Brady thinks the youth and size advantage will be decisive, but it's a close fight and he cannot be confident. He expects a competitive decision.

decision
"I decide with that youth and that length that reach and tornado's gotta fall off a cliff at some point right like 43 years old almost 44. too small for the weight class I I like roberts here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Danny Roberts

Cody picks Danny Roberts as his second underdog. He notes that Roberts is faster, has better footwork, and higher output. Cody believes Roberts can win the first two rounds and survive the third. He acknowledges Roberts' history of bonehead decisions but thinks the big cage and Sanford MMA game plan will help. Cody sees it as a close fight that could go either way.

"i think my official uh goal here is going to be with the underdog danny roberts"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Danny Roberts

Daniel Levi leans toward Danny Roberts as a slight underdog, citing Roberts' size, power, and prime age versus the 44-year-old Trinaldo. He acknowledges Trinaldo's durability and experience but thinks age may finally catch up. He plans to bet one unit on Roberts if the line improves to around +105 or +110, but has not placed the bet yet.

Daniel considers a one-unit bet on Roberts moneyline if the line improves. No other props mentioned.
"If you give me dog odds on him, just give me like plus 105, give me a plus 110, I'll take a one unit shot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Danny Roberts

The host picks Danny Roberts but is not betting the fight. He believes Roberts is the better fighter at this stage, younger and faster, and should outpoint Trinaldo. However, he acknowledges Trinaldo's knockout power and Roberts' questionable chin. He mentions a possible Trinaldo KO prop at +450 to +550 as a small shot. He is staying away from betting due to the volatility.

Trinaldo by KO +450 to +550
"i hate myself for picking him but i'm going danny roberts"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Paul picks Francisco Trinaldo, despite acknowledging that Roberts will likely be winning early. He believes Trinaldo's durability and power will eventually catch Roberts, similar to the Jai Herbert fight. Paul notes that Roberts has a suspect chin and Trinaldo can land a big left hand late. He expects Trinaldo to be losing on the scorecards before getting a finish.

"grandpa t for me i'll never pick against him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Danny Roberts

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Danny Roberts as an underdog, acknowledging Roberts' history of being KO'd but noting Trinaldo's age (43) and lack of power at welterweight. He believes Roberts' reach and rangy style will allow him to fight patiently and win a close decision. He mentions Roberts has momentum with a couple of wins and confidence, while Trinaldo hasn't had many finishes recently. He predicts a razor-close 29-28 decision.

"i'm gonna have to take the good underdog here in danny roberts in my opinion so i'm gonna swag with danny roberts"
WIN vs Dwight Grant
Decision (split) (29–27, 27–29, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Trinaldo 0 36 of 70 51% 61 of 101 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:45
Dwight Grant 0 31 of 133 23% 41 of 145 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Trinaldo 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 14 of 51 27% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Francisco Trinaldo 0 15 of 28 53% 16 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
Dwight Grant 0 8 of 48 16% 13 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
3 Francisco Trinaldo 0 10 of 22 45% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Dwight Grant 0 9 of 34 26% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Trinaldo 36 of 70 51% 20 of 50 11 of 14 5 of 6 26 of 57 4 of 5 6 of 8
Dwight Grant 31 of 133 23% 20 of 114 7 of 14 4 of 5 28 of 128 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Trinaldo 11 of 20 55% 4 of 12 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 14 of 51 27% 6 of 39 4 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Francisco Trinaldo 15 of 28 53% 9 of 19 4 of 6 2 of 3 11 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 8 of 48 16% 8 of 44 0 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 4
3 Francisco Trinaldo 10 of 22 45% 7 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 8
Dwight Grant 9 of 34 26% 6 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Angelo leans Trinaldo because he thinks the shorter, stockier fighter can get inside Grant's reach, get to the hips, and grind. He notes Grant has questionable cardio and was knocked out in his last fight despite winning early. However, he's worried about Trinaldo's age (43) and when he'll start to decline. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight and will have Trinaldo in his DraftKings lineup.

considering a +3.5 bet on Grant or a 'wins inside distance, decision no action' bet on Grant; likes more/more on monkey knife fight; will spend 8400 on Trinaldo in DraftKings
"i'm leaning trinaldo i like ronaldo here styles make fights short stocky guy should be able to get inside the range bully dwight grant to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Grant to knock out the 43-year-old Trinaldo, citing Trinaldo's age, size disadvantage, and recent knockdowns. He notes Grant's power and Trinaldo's never-been-KO'd record, but believes the chin will crack. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"i think dwight grant knocks him out here he's now 43 years old we've seen him hurt a lot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Cody picks Francisco Trinaldo, admitting it's a heart-over-mind bet. He notes Trinaldo's durability and veteran savvy, and criticizes Dwight Grant's tendency to run away and his unimpressive UFC performances. Cody points out that Grant has looked abysmal, losing to low-level competition and barely beating Stefan Sekulich. He believes Trinaldo's toughness and forward pressure will be enough to win, though he acknowledges the risk.

Heart over mind bet; legend
"i'm betting grandpa again here bud um if i lose i lose i'll still be up on grandpa trinaldo bets over the course of my life by by a wide margin love the guy legend"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Lock picks Trinaldo based on pressure and durability. He notes Trinaldo has never been knocked down and should stalk Grant, who tends to backpedal. He expects Trinaldo to win by decision, citing Grant's lack of volume and Trinaldo's superior kickboxing.

Trinaldo by decision +195
"i like trinaldo minus 135. i think it's a solid spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He notes that Trinaldo is now the favorite and he is not interested at that price. He also points out that Dwight Grant could win by staying on the outside and landing chip shots. Paul seems to lean towards passing on the fight.

"now that he's the favorite i'm not interested in taking a shot on francisco tripp"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

The MMA Guru picks Francisco Trinaldo, trusting his chin and durability. He criticizes Dwight Grant for being gun-shy and compares him to Uriah Hall. He believes Trinaldo's pressure and chin will carry him to a decision win, though he notes Grant has KO power.

"i'm gonna trust francisco trinaldo to get this one done"
LOSS vs Muslim Salikhov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muslim Salikhov 0 39 of 128 30% 51 of 148 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Francisco Trinaldo 1 62 of 118 52% 71 of 129 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muslim Salikhov 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Francisco Trinaldo 1 26 of 49 53% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
2 Muslim Salikhov 0 16 of 48 33% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Francisco Trinaldo 0 16 of 39 41% 18 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
3 Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 41 24% 21 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Francisco Trinaldo 0 20 of 30 66% 26 of 38 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muslim Salikhov 39 of 128 30% 22 of 101 16 of 26 1 of 1 34 of 119 5 of 9 0 of 0
Francisco Trinaldo 62 of 118 52% 29 of 84 26 of 27 7 of 7 48 of 98 1 of 1 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muslim Salikhov 13 of 39 33% 9 of 31 4 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
Francisco Trinaldo 26 of 49 53% 13 of 36 10 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 35 0 of 0 9 of 14
2 Muslim Salikhov 16 of 48 33% 7 of 34 9 of 14 0 of 0 14 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
Francisco Trinaldo 16 of 39 41% 6 of 28 9 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Muslim Salikhov 10 of 41 24% 6 of 36 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 0
Francisco Trinaldo 20 of 30 66% 10 of 20 7 of 7 3 of 3 15 of 24 1 of 1 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Muslim Salikhov

Round 1
For the first time in many years, Trinaldo (26-7, 16-6 UFC) is fighting outside of the lightweight division. In this return to welterweight – Trinaldo started his UFC career at middleweight but his pro career in this 170-pound category – he will meet “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (17-2, 4-1 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this interesting style matchup is referee Mark Smith, and the two fighters do not touch gloves to begin their melee. Trinaldo wades forward to pressure Salikhov, and “King of Kung Fu” jabs at him from a distance. Trinaldo catches his man on the way in with a looping shot, and a body kick surprises Salikhov. The two are not committing on strikes of note, preferring to find their range and fake the other out. Salikhov unleashes a nasty body kick that slaps on the midsection of his opponent, and the sound echoes throughout the empty UFC Apex. The Brazilian tries to chase Salikhov down to make him pay, but Salikhov keeps his man at bay with kicks. “Massaranduba” rushes through strikes to land a left hand of his own, and Salikhov laughs it off to tag Trinaldo with a huge right hand. Trinaldo chases after him with a swarm of inaccurate punches, but he does bully the Dagestani fighter into the cage to knee him in the chest. Salikhov swipes at him with a left hand, and he chops the lead leg of the Brazilian on the way out. Trinaldo scores a right hand and just narrowly avoids a head kick and a subsequent spinning heel kick. “Massaranduba” bites down on his mouthpiece to throw hands, but Salikhov slips and rips with counters. A quick uppercut from “King of Kung Fu” clips Trinaldo on the chin, and the Brazilian falls to his back in serious danger. Salikhov chases him down and slams his fists on the side of his head, but Trinaldo survives by throwing his legs up for a desperation heel hook to occupy Salikhov’s time until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov

Round 2
The welterweights meet in the center of the cage, and Trinaldo is ready to go back to battle as he presses forward to land a left hand on the backpedaling Dagestan native. Salikhov sits on an uppercut, but he comes up just short of the mark. Trinaldo comes forward confidently and knees the body a few times, but Salikhov tags him with fierce punches on the way out. “King of Kung Fu” gets off a crisp uppercut and a follow-up punch, and a low kick to the calf nearly puts Trinaldo down. Trinaldo times a big left hand as Salikhov advances, and Salikhov does not even register the strike as he puts his own combination together. A nasty right hand shocks Trinaldo, who is on wobbled legs but not going down this time, and Salikhov leaps in the air with a knee that glances off the target. The Brazilian only appears enraged, as he takes a punch on the chin and lashes out with a huge strike that Salikhov can barely dodge. The two are loading up on their strikes with everything they have, until they come together in a clinch. Salikhov does not way to stay here for long, as he backs off and pins a one-two on the chin. A few jabs from Salikhov find their home, and a high kick blazes up and just gets blocked in time. Salikhov ducks a looping shot to tag his foe with an uppercut, and he escapes as Trinaldo bears down on him with reaching shots. Trinaldo throws so hard he nearly falls over, and Salikhov lands a few quick strikes on the way out. A heavy body kick from Salikhov finds its mark on the midsection, and he steps forward to throw the Brazilian down to his back. “Massaranduba” slowly climbs to a knee and back up, and the tense round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov

Round 3
The two men are amped up to get after it, and Smith needs them to back off before he calls time. Seconds into the round, as Salikhov is readying a strike, Trinaldo lunges his fingers out and one goes deep into the eyeball. Salikhov falls to the ground in pain, clutching his eye, and Smith rushes over to attend to him while calling in the doctor. Salikhov’s eye appears bloodied and his eyelid is not opening all the way, but he tells the doctor that his vision is blurry but returning. The doctor wipes Salikhov’s eye clear, and Smith issues Trinaldo a hard warning. The action resumes after about two minutes in the break, and the two offer a glove touch before getting back down to business. Trinaldo winds up a bomb of a left hand that clacks off Salikhov’s chin, and Salikhov wobbles but backs off. Trinaldo knows the vision is compromised, and his left hand finds its home on that eye repeatedly, doing some serious damage. Trinaldo pushes in for a clinch to land a few knees, and Salikhov backs out of the clinch and catches a charging Trinaldo with an uppercut. The Brazilian swings with reckless abandon, with looping shots nowhere near the mark. The Dagestani fighter blocks a big head kick, and he lances Trinaldo with a straight right hand. Trinaldo falls over throwing so hard, and Salikhov backs off and kicks his leg a few times before Smith stands him up. Salikhov gets off a one-two when they start up, and he dances out of the way as Trinaldo bears down on him. Salikhov sits down on a left hand, and a spinning heel kick glances off the shoulder. Trinaldo is not afraid, taking strikes on the jaw and marching forward to throw haymakers. Salikhov absorbs a stern body kick that makes him drop his right hand, and Trinaldo follows the kick with a big right hand. Salikhov stings him with a few punches, and the Brazilian maintains his composure and takes another one-two on the chin. Ever the Terminator, Trinaldo plods forward through a few strikes to land his own, but Salikhov is much faster, putting a few punches together in rapid succession. Salikhov ends a combination by lifting Trinaldo in the air and slamming him down. From on top, Salikhov delivers a wild barrage of ground-and-pound to end the round in style.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (30-27 Salikhov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (30-27 Salikhov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (30-27 Salikhov)

The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Francisco Trinaldo via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Big Brady expects a low-volume, boring fight likely going to decision. He notes Trinaldo is 42 with a great chin but poor cardio, while Salikhov has flashier strikes and slightly more volume. He acknowledges Salikhov has struggled with grapplers in the past but thinks Trinaldo lacks the cardio to implement a ground game. He predicts Salikhov wins a boring decision, with a possible late finish if Trinaldo gasses.

"i'm gonna take uh salakov to win a boring decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Cody picks Trinaldo, agreeing with Paul. He notes Salikhov's takedown defense issues and Trinaldo's grappling advantage. Cody thinks Trinaldo's cardio is overblown and that he can win via takedowns and top control. He sees great value at +210.

"great value on ronaldo just took him plus 210"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Daniel picks Salikhov via second-round knockout, citing his sharp counter-striking, accuracy, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Trinaldo is 42 and only has one round of wrestling in him, as seen in his last fight. Daniel believes Trinaldo will slow down and get countered by Salikhov's spinning attacks and straight punches. He respects Trinaldo but thinks father time is undefeated, and that Salikhov's distance management and power will be too much.

"i gotta go with salakov here probably via second round knockout man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Trinaldo is durable, never knocked out, and can mix in takedowns. Salikhov is low-output and overvalued due to the 'Russian tax'. This fight will be close and go to decision, with Trinaldo having the edge.

Trinaldo by decision +385, over 2.5 rounds -160
"I like me some francisco trinado at plus 385 via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Paul picks Trinaldo as a dog, citing his experience and well-rounded skills. He notes Salikhov's takedown defense issues and that Trinaldo has a path via grappling. Paul thinks the odds are too high for a fighter of Trinaldo's caliber. He already bet Trinaldo at +210.

"great value on ronaldo just took him plus 210 at one of the books that i have access to"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

The Guru picks Muslim Salikhov, expecting a striking stalemate but believing Salikhov will be too strong in grappling and more technical on the feet. He thinks Salikhov will give Trinaldo a rude awakening to welterweight, being bigger and faster. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision in a somewhat boring fight.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i think muslim salakov is going to be a little bit too strong in the grappling situations"
WIN vs Jai Herbert
TKO (punch) R3 1:30 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Trinaldo 1 30 of 58 51% 37 of 66 2 of 3 66% 2 1 3:18
Jai Herbert 1 21 of 70 30% 37 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Trinaldo 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 2 of 3 66% 2 0 3:15
Jai Herbert 0 4 of 14 28% 13 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
2 Francisco Trinaldo 0 9 of 22 40% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Jai Herbert 1 14 of 32 43% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:37
3 Francisco Trinaldo 1 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jai Herbert 0 3 of 24 12% 3 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Trinaldo 30 of 58 51% 15 of 35 7 of 14 8 of 9 19 of 45 3 of 4 8 of 9
Jai Herbert 21 of 70 30% 15 of 63 4 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 61 5 of 6 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Trinaldo 9 of 20 45% 4 of 13 4 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 12 3 of 4 3 of 4
Jai Herbert 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Francisco Trinaldo 9 of 22 40% 4 of 12 2 of 6 3 of 4 8 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jai Herbert 14 of 32 43% 9 of 27 4 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 2
3 Francisco Trinaldo 12 of 16 75% 7 of 10 1 of 2 4 of 4 8 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 4
Jai Herbert 3 of 24 12% 2 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Francisco Trinaldo (160: Missed Weight) vs. Jai Herbert

Round 1
Headlining the prelims that might have felt like an eternity to some is a catchweight fight between longtime UFC vet Trinaldo (25-7, 15-6 UFC) and hard-charging British striker Herbert (10-1, 0-0 UFC), with the latter making his UFC debut while Trinaldo has already fought in the Octagon 21 times. As Trinaldo missed weight by four pounds, this is a 160-pound affair, and it will be overseen by referee Herb Dean. There is no glove touch, and Herbert starts out with a wide stance as he paws out his left. Trinaldo winds up with a left hook that comes up well short, and Herbert is dancing around the cage while avoiding strikes. Herbert stings him with a right hand, and lands another, forcing the Brazilian to bite down on his mouthpiece and land a left hook and a body kick. “Massaranduba” mashes him against the fence, where it leads to a simple takedown as he hops into half guard. Trinaldo drops down a hard elbow, and fishes for an arm-triangle choke that leads him to fall off. Herbert springs back up, but Trinaldo snags his neck on the way up and clamps on a guillotine choke. The Brit stays calm, and he pulls his head free and returns to his feet as Trinaldo squeezes him on the fence. When Herbert tries to gain separation, Trinaldo redoubles his effort to get the fight down, and he tosses his man to the canvas. Herbert tries to get to his knees and stand up, but he gives up his neck as Trinaldo steps over to hunt for a rear-naked choke. Herbert falls to his back to defend the choke, so Trinaldo lashes at him with vicious elbows. Herbert manages to kick off, but Trinaldo comes back forward to bully Herbert on the fence. Herbert turns out and lifts up a few knees that ring Trinaldo’s bell, but the Brazilian winds up with a right hand that does some damage as well. When they are still holding tight, Herbert hits his own takedown, and he wings a big elbow at his opponent from on top. Herbert rides out the rest of the round with a few punches from half guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Trinaldo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Trinaldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Trinaldo

Round 2
Herbert opens the round with a few jabs, and he follows one with a piston-like right straight that sets Trinaldo down on the ground. The Brit dives on top and drills him with an elbow, so Trinaldo scrambles but inadvertently gives up his back. Herbert gets both his hooks in, and he secures a body triangle as he fishes for a neck. Herbert tries to set up a rear-naked choke, and the Brazilian defends it well, so Herbert softens him up with a few punches. Trinaldo bucks like a bronco, but Herbert has him locked down from turning. Trinaldo gets two-on-one wrist control to force a sweep, and after they jockey for position, Trinaldo gets him off and gets to his knees. The Brazilian takes a moment to get up, so Herbert blasts him on the chin again. Trinaldo looks tired as he tries to get back up, and he swings wildly and inaccurately but zings one off the chin. Herbert stuffs a takedown attempt, and he sticks Trinaldo with another right hand. Trinaldo is wobbling around like he is on an ice-covered canvas, and Herbert nearly drops him again with a right hand. Trinaldo gets his knees back beneath him but his punches are labored and not finding their mark in time. Herbert is loose, and when they clinch, Herbert knees him in the face before breaking position. Herbert sneaks in another right hand, and Trinaldo greets him with a thumping low kick. Trinaldo tries another one of those kicks, but Herbert checks it and sticks him with a right. The round ends with both men swinging to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Herbert
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert

Round 3
Trinaldo opens the last round up with some hard leg kicks, and Herbert replies in kind with long left hands. Trinaldo kicks to the body, and Herbert can do nothing but take it and aim right hands down the pipe. They trade kicks, and Herbert doubles up on a jab while blocking the counter left coming at him. Trinaldo sends a body kick skimming off the midsection of the debuting Brit.
The Brazilian winds up with a crazy left hand that bounces off the forehead, and there is a delayed reaction as Herbert loses his equilibrium and falls back with his arms outstretched and could be out cold! Unfortunately for Herbert, Dean stands there and urges Trinaldo to pound on him, but Herbert is already done. Trinaldo does not want to finish the job, and waits a moment before reluctantly slamming down four more jackhammering left hands to officially seal the deal.
That was not a good display of refereeing, and not the first potentially late stoppage from Dean tonight; more than anything, what a surprising win for the Brazilian.

The Official Result
Francisco Trinaldo def. Jai Herbert R3 1:30 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

Big Brady picks Herbert as his first underdog of the card, citing Herbert's speed, volume, and youth. He thinks Trinaldo is on the decline and doesn't throw enough. He is concerned about Trinaldo's takedowns but notes Trinaldo rarely uses them. He predicts Herbert wins a decision by outworking Trinaldo.

Herbert by decision
"I like herbert to win this fight based off of volume alone this kid's fast this kid's pretty good"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Daniel leans Trinaldo but acknowledges Herbert's knockout power. He thinks Trinaldo will mix in takedowns and have success on the mat if Herbert can't knock him out. He notes Trinaldo's experience and toughness but also that Herbert's right hand is a real threat. He sees Trinaldo winning a decision.

"i'm gonna go with trinaldo to to win another decision and uh show why he's one of the the most badass guys in the lightweight division"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

Herbert is a good striker with movement and kicks, and Trinaldo is 41 and may start to slow down. Herbert can manage distance and avoid Trinaldo's power shots. However, Trinaldo has power and experience, making this a tough fight to cap. Herbert likely wins by decision if he stays safe.

Under 2.5 rounds (+155) considered
"i'm gonna go with jay herbert i think he plays a super safe fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert, citing his good wins, training with Leon Edwards, and his amateur career showing seriousness. He notes Herbert has quick KOs and a gas tank for later rounds. He predicts Herbert will have big moments and win a decision, as Trinaldo has never been TKO'd and has a good chin.

"I'm going to go with Jai Herbert getting big moments, winning the fight based on those moments, but Ronaldo is going to be in there for the distance."
WIN vs John Makdessi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Mar 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Trinaldo 0 55 of 126 43% 55 of 126 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 67 of 123 54% 68 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Trinaldo 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 25 of 35 71% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Francisco Trinaldo 0 19 of 44 43% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Francisco Trinaldo 0 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 23 of 50 46% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Trinaldo 55 of 126 43% 34 of 100 17 of 22 4 of 4 53 of 124 2 of 2 0 of 0
John Makdessi 67 of 123 54% 15 of 54 16 of 26 36 of 43 65 of 121 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Trinaldo 12 of 30 40% 5 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 25 of 35 71% 5 of 9 7 of 10 13 of 16 25 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Francisco Trinaldo 19 of 44 43% 12 of 33 6 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 19 of 38 50% 4 of 18 5 of 8 10 of 12 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Francisco Trinaldo 24 of 52 46% 17 of 45 5 of 5 2 of 2 22 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
John Makdessi 23 of 50 46% 6 of 27 4 of 8 13 of 15 21 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Daniel picks Trinaldo, citing his power and aggression. He thinks Trinaldo's left hand will find Makdessi's chin, which has been broken before. He predicts a decision win for Trinaldo by landing harder shots, even without the crowd.

"I think that he'll drop him along the way and and win this decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2020 (8 days before fight)
John Makdessi

The host picks John Makdessi over Francisco Trinaldo. He notes that Makdessi has been on a three-fight win streak since a KO loss, while Trinaldo is older and coming off a win over Bobby Green but couldn't beat a one-armed Alexander Hernandez. He expects Makdessi to out-strike Trinaldo for a boring decision win.

"I feel as though John Makdessi is gonna get the jump on Francisco turn our dough and be able to keep him at bay on the feet and slowly out strike him for a free round boring decision fest"
WIN vs King Green
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Trinaldo 0 31 of 122 25% 36 of 127 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:04
King Green 0 50 of 115 43% 67 of 135 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Trinaldo 0 4 of 13 30% 8 of 17 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:19
King Green 0 9 of 18 50% 25 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:15
2 Francisco Trinaldo 0 15 of 58 25% 15 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
King Green 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Francisco Trinaldo 0 12 of 51 23% 13 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
King Green 0 17 of 47 36% 18 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Trinaldo 31 of 122 25% 20 of 100 5 of 14 6 of 8 26 of 109 5 of 13 0 of 0
King Green 50 of 115 43% 27 of 77 13 of 24 10 of 14 43 of 106 1 of 2 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Trinaldo 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0
King Green 9 of 18 50% 3 of 10 4 of 5 2 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 5 of 6
2 Francisco Trinaldo 15 of 58 25% 4 of 41 5 of 10 6 of 7 13 of 54 2 of 4 0 of 0
King Green 24 of 50 48% 14 of 32 5 of 12 5 of 6 24 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Francisco Trinaldo 12 of 51 23% 12 of 47 0 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 45 1 of 6 0 of 0
King Green 17 of 47 36% 10 of 35 4 of 7 3 of 5 15 of 45 1 of 1 1 of 1
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 25 of 91 27% 26 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Francisco Trinaldo 0 25 of 52 48% 28 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 8 of 30 26% 8 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Trinaldo 0 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 6 of 23 26% 6 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Francisco Trinaldo 0 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Francisco Trinaldo 0 12 of 21 57% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 25 of 91 27% 9 of 53 13 of 33 3 of 5 25 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 1
Francisco Trinaldo 25 of 52 48% 13 of 33 11 of 18 1 of 1 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 8 of 30 26% 1 of 17 5 of 10 2 of 3 8 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francisco Trinaldo 8 of 14 57% 5 of 9 3 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 6 of 23 26% 4 of 13 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francisco Trinaldo 5 of 17 29% 2 of 11 3 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 11 of 38 28% 4 of 23 6 of 13 1 of 2 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 1
Francisco Trinaldo 12 of 21 57% 6 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Francisco Trinaldo

Round 1
It’s time for a lightweight bout between Alexander Hernandez and Francisco Trinaldo. The referee is Frank Collazo. Hernandez comes out flying with a side kick. Trinaldo connects on a long straight right. Hernandez explodes forward with a straight right of his own. Hernandez is circling around Trinaldo, who has posted up in the center of the Octagon. Trinaldo lands a counter straight right after connecting on a kick by Hernandez. Trinaldo lands a low blow that hurts Hernandez and the referee calls time. Time is back in. The round is soon over, but not before Trinaldo lands a flying knee just before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Trinaldo
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Trinaldo

Round 2
Round two begins. Trinaldo pushes forward and lands a high kick. Hernandez pushes forward and grabs a hold of Trinaldo, but shakes him off. Hernandez is unable to land anything on Trinaldo right now, but Trinaldo isn’t doing much either. Hernandez lands an overhand right. Trinaldo walks forward and lands a high kick. Neither guy really landed much that round and it’s soon over.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Trinaldo
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Trinaldo
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
The third round begins and right now it could be in either guy’s favor. Hernandez shoves Trinaldo against the fence. They break. Trinaldo throws a kick but slips and Hernandez is unable to take advantage of the slip. There just really isn’t much happening in this fight. Trinaldo has been planted in the center of the Octagon while Hernandez has danced around him. Hernandez finally starts to pick it up near the end of the round but he just hasn’t landed much of anything. Weird fight, and who knows how the judges will score it.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Trinaldo)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Francisco Trinaldo via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Cody picks Trinaldo as a plus money underdog, believing the line should be closer to -170/+150. He argues that Trinaldo is very good at making opponents fight at his pace and that Brown's boxing is not as functional as it seems. He expects a close fight and wants to be holding the plus 270 ticket if it goes to decision. He plans to bet Trinaldo and may wait for a better price at weigh-ins.

Trinaldo moneyline +270; may wait for better price
"I'm picking Grandpa t on the program here I will be betting Grandpa t"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Randy Brown by decision, citing Brown's significant reach advantage, improved striking, and ability to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Trinaldo. He acknowledges Trinaldo's durability and winning streak but believes Brown's superior technique and youth will prevail. He notes that Trinaldo has never been knocked down and hasn't been submitted since 2017, so a decision is the most likely outcome.

Brown by decision +125
"Brown by decision plus 125 because trinaldo like you said hasn't been submitted in a really long time and never been knocked down"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru sees this as a complete mismatch, citing Randy Brown's significant advantages in height, reach, and athleticism over the 44-year-old Trinaldo. He expects Brown to use volume striking from distance and possibly mix in wrestling, similar to his win over Cowboy Oliveira. He believes Trinaldo's only path is an early knockout, but Brown's activity and youth should overwhelm him. He calls it a 'free betting boost' and includes Brown in his parlay.

included in parlay with Barcelos and Castaneda
"This is a complete mismatch to me... Randy Brown by whatever you want to pick."