Career Averages - Chelsea Chandler
Career Averages - Julija Stoliarenko
Chelsea Chandler - Fight History
The host picks Cachoeira but is hesitant, noting that both fighters are on the chopping block and neither has looked good lately. He acknowledges that if Chandler wrestles hard she could win, but on the feet Cachoeira is tough and comes forward with heavy hands. He says he doesn't feel convicted on either side.
AJ picks Cachoeira by knockout, citing her heavy hands and Chandler's apparent durability issues after weight cut. He notes Chandler looked skinny at weigh-ins and was knocked out by Joselyn Edwards. AJ expects Cachoeira to land a big shot early, possibly a shovel uppercut, and finish in round one.
Angelo picks Chelsea Chandler, reasoning that she will use her size and strength to push Priscila Cachoeira against the cage and take her down. He notes that Cachoeira has no ground skills and actively works against herself on the ground. He expects Chandler to win by being the 'Jolly Green Giant' and landing on top, possibly finding a finish.
Big Brady picks Priscila Cachoeira to win by second round knockout. He admits bias but argues that Chelsea Chandler doesn't like getting hit and has poor striking defense, while Cachoeira hits hard and is tough. He worries about Cachoeira's ground game but thinks she can avoid being on her back long enough to land a knockout.
Both fighters are chinny and not the best, but Priscila Cachoeira is more aggressive and goes all out for a knockout. Chelsea Chandler has declined since her win over Julia Stoliarenko four years ago, losing to Norma Dumont and Joselyne Edwards. Cachoeira is expected to chin Chandler early.
Cody picks Cachoeira as a dog, noting Chandler's poor weight cuts and suspect chin. He believes Cachoeira's pressure and durability could overwhelm Chandler. He calls it a 50/50 fight and prefers the plus money.
Priscila Cachoeira is picked but with low confidence. She has power in her hands, but her wrestling is a weakness. Chelsea Chandler should wrestle but may not. The host is unsure if Chandler will implement her game plan or get knocked out. Cachoeira is predictable but could land a knockout.
Cachoeira has better striking power and should be able to stuff Chandler's takedowns. Chandler's wrestling isn't at a level to control Cachoeira. Cachoeira wins a decision, as her power has diminished but she can outpoint Chandler.
Lucrative James picks Chelsea Chandler reluctantly, citing her grappling upside as the deciding factor. He acknowledges both fighters are aging and the fight is low-level, but believes Chandler can win via KO ground and pound in round 2. He notes Priscila Cachoeira's power and experience but thinks Chandler's ability to win on the feet or ground gives her an edge.
Chandler's grappling is the key; she should be able to take Cachoeira down and dominate from top position. Cachoeira has knockout power but poor takedown defense and is 37 years old. Chandler likely finishes by submission, and the under 2.5 rounds at +100 is a good bet.
Paul picks Chandler but is hesitant, noting she should use wrestling to control Cachoeira. He acknowledges Cachoeira's toughness and Chandler's weight issues. He is not betting the fight but leans Chandler on fight IQ.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joselyne Edwards | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 35 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joselyne Edwards | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 35 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joselyne Edwards | 30 of 42 | 71% | 14 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joselyne Edwards | 30 of 42 | 71% | 14 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Edwards (-298), Chandler (+240)
Round 1
After some fight fans got a week off—at least from the UFC—the slate starts to roll on again. We start this cycle in an arena show, with the audience at the T-Mobile Center early in Kansas City ready to rock. A whole 14 fights are on the long slate tonight, and action begins in the women’s bantamweight division featuring two ladies most expected would miss weight and be required to compete at a catchweight or the nonexistent featherweight category. Both Chandler (6-3, 2-2 UFC) and Edwards (14-6, 5-4 UFC) have things under control for this April outing, and referee Zach Teiberis will join them in the cage to make things official. The women do not bump fists before engaging, and it’s time for some action. Edwards takes to the center of the stage and starts firing off kicks to the lead leg and side. Chandler tosses one or two back, but Edwards are starting to have an impact. Chandler looks to tie her foe up, and Edwards takes advantage of the body lock and trips the Californian out to plant her on her back. “La Pantera” lands in half guard, and Chandler holds on tight to not allow her to get off much offense. Chandler scoots to the fence and pushes Edwards off, but she waits for Teiberis to give her a stand-up. Edwards lets her up, and she gets right in her face with fists and a heavy kick to the ribs. Chandler rebounds off the fence after eating a punch salvo, with Edwards firmly in the driver’s seat in the first two minutes. Edwards times a right hand over the top when Chandler throws a naked kick, and Edwards lines up a chain of punches that had Chandler’s curiosity and quickly gain her attention.
Chandler standing straight up against the fence, Edwards opens up with a couple right hooks, and it is a bomb of a left hand that separates Chandler from her senses. Chandler hits the deck, and Edwards pounces, knowing her work here is about to be done. Notching her first knockout victory since 2020, Edwards finishes the job with a slew of hammerfists that force Teiberis to wave the fight off.
This was one-way traffic for the favored Panamanian, who dominantly placed the Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu on her first career losing streak in just over half a round.
Advertisement
The Official Result
Joselyne Edwards def. Chelsea Chandler R1 2:31 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Joselyne Edwards because she is the better fighter overall, with superior kickboxing, range management, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Chelsea Chandler is enormous and strong but slow and lumbering, and he doubts she can simply overpower Joselyn. He mentions that Joselyn was -190, then -210, now -220, and he has her in a parlay.
Big Brady is confident in Joselyne Edwards, citing her striking advantage and Chelsea Chandler's tendency to be a punching bag. He notes Edwards' takedown defense has improved, though she has been taken down in the past. He expects Edwards to stuff takedowns and win a decision, as Chandler is not a threat on the feet.
The host acknowledges Chandler's physicality but believes Edwards' technical advantages will allow her to land combinations and head kicks from distance, leading to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Joselyne Edwards, citing her technical striking, reach advantage, and experience with 20 pro fights compared to Chandler's 9. He notes Edwards' counter-wrestling and range management, and expects her to outstrike Chandler to a 29-28 decision. He mentions that judges are increasingly scoring damage over grappling, which favors Edwards.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 1 | 94 of 135 | 69% | 135 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 56 of 124 | 45% | 73 of 152 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 0 | 33 of 44 | 75% | 38 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 1 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 0 | 28 of 43 | 65% | 58 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 33 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 94 of 135 | 69% | 30 of 58 | 38 of 50 | 26 of 27 | 58 of 94 | 36 of 41 | 0 of 0 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 56 of 124 | 45% | 31 of 90 | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 88 | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 33 of 44 | 75% | 10 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 12 of 13 | 24 of 35 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 14 of 40 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 33 of 48 | 68% | 12 of 21 | 12 of 18 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 34 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 28 of 43 | 65% | 8 of 18 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 25 | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 25 of 50 | 50% | 12 of 32 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 30 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-142), Chandler (+120)
Round 1
Action heads back to the women’s bantamweight division, where Santos (14-8, 4-5 UFC) collides with an overweight Chandler (6-2, 2-1 UFC). The 30-year-old Chandler tipped the scales at 141 pounds—a whopping five pounds over the bantamweight limit. Herb Dean handles the officiating duties. Santos takes the center of the cage against the southpaw. She lands a kick across both legs. Side kick to the lead leg from Santos. She follows punches with another leg kick. Definite difference in class of fighter so far. Chandler steps forward punches and looks to clinch. Santos shrugs it off. Leg kick from Santos, then another. Chandler counters with a straight left. Body kick from Santos. Chandler bobs and weaves on the outside, as the action stalls. Santos steps into a push kick to the face, then crashes into the clinch. Chandler turns her into the fence. Santos breaks free and cuts loose with punches. Ninety seconds left. Chandler pumps out a range-finding jab. Santos delivers a nice kick to the body. Pace slows again. Another body kick from Santos. Chandler flurries, connects with a left and clinches along the cage. She goes nowhere and separates. Body kick from Santos, followed by a spinning back kick upstairs. She closes with an inside low kick.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 2
Chandler charges out to the center of the cage and eats a pair of punches. Santos floors her with a right hand, then hammers the legs with kicks with Chandler in the butt scoot position. Dean restarts them standing. Head kick from Santos, followed by a one-two and another push kick to the face. Chandler absorbs another leg kick. Santos steps into an inside leg kick, resets in open space and scores with a leg kick. Too much speed and skill for Chandler, who simply cannot plug all the holes in her game. She bullies her way into the clinch. Santos breaks free. No change to the narrative midway through the round. Santos connects with a short-range knee to the body, engages Chandler in the clinch, lands an elbow and turns her to the fence. She lands an elbow off the break. Santos superior at range and in the clinch. Chandler looks to close the distance behind a straight left. No luck. Santos unleashes a kick to the head in open space, then another. Chandler scores with a right hand over the top. Santos lands an axe kick to the collar bone. They finish the round in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 3
Santos circles on the outside to start Round 3. Leg kick from Santos. Chandler again crashes into the clinch along the fence and works knees to the legs and body. Santos avoids a trip and connects with an elbow for breaking free. Chandler walks Santos into a chopping right hand over the top. Santos answers with a body kick. Inside leg kick from Santos, who circles on the outside. Chandler initiates the clinch, throws a knee to the body and tries to bottle up Santos along the fence. Santos breaks free without much trouble. Chandler swarms with punches. Santos responds with a close-quarters knee to the gut, then another. Chandler seems to be out of ideas. Push kick to the face from Santos. She follows with a side kick to the chest. Just too many weapons. Ninety seconds on the clock. Chandler stalks forward and eats a left hand over the top. Once again, they find their way into the clinch. They trade knees. Santos escapes into open space. Chandler follows left hands into the clinch. Action stalls. Push kick to the face from Santos. Chandler hammers away to the body with both hands but runs out of time.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
The Official Result
Yana Santos def. Chelsea Chandler—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Chelsea Chandler based on size and power, expecting her to slow down the pace, lean on Santos, and hold her against the cage. He admits Santos is the better technical fighter but is on a three-fight skid and might be phoning it in. He warns that confidence is very low and advises not to bet heavily on this pick.
Cody picks Santos but with low confidence, citing her poor takedown defense (42%) and Chandler's grappling. He thinks Santos can win rounds 2 and 3 if she keeps it standing, and suggests live betting if she loses the first round. He notes the fight likely goes to decision and judges may favor activity.
Santos has a significant experience advantage and is better in the clinch, where the fight will likely be won. Chandler is raw on the feet and open to counters. Santos should land better damage and win a split decision, though Chandler's physical strength could cause problems.
Paul leans slightly to Santos due to her volume striking, but acknowledges low confidence. He expects a split decision and notes Chandler's grappling could control early rounds. He suggests a split decision prop as a good play.
The MMA Guru picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her commitment to the game and size/strength advantage over Yana Santos. He does not provide detailed technical breakdown but expresses confidence in Chandler's physical attributes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 47 of 105 | 44% | 49 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Josiane Nunes | 0 | 58 of 130 | 44% | 100 of 176 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Josiane Nunes | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 29 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 | |
| 2 | Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josiane Nunes | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 46 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josiane Nunes | 0 | 23 of 57 | 40% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 47 of 105 | 44% | 37 of 85 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 101 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josiane Nunes | 58 of 130 | 44% | 43 of 107 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 106 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 13 of 32 | 40% | 7 of 25 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Josiane Nunes | 20 of 40 | 50% | 14 of 32 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Chelsea Chandler | 9 of 13 | 69% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Josiane Nunes | 15 of 33 | 45% | 13 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | |
| 3 | Chelsea Chandler | 25 of 60 | 41% | 21 of 47 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josiane Nunes | 23 of 57 | 40% | 16 of 46 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nunes (-135), Chandler (+114)
Round 1
The second catchweight affair comes next, as ex-featherweight Chandler (5-2, 1-1 UFC) could not quite reach the 136-pound limit, clocking in a pound heavy and giving up 20% of her purse to her opponent. Also a featherweight in the past, the 5-foot-2 Nunes (10-1, 3-0 UFC) had no issue making weight. There will be a size disparity in the cage, and referee Chris Tognoni will make sure nothing problematic comes from it. Nunes is intense and has no interest in touching gloves, and she walks out of her corner calm as a cucumber while knowing it is about to get messy. Nunes slowly moves forward, until she lets her hands go. Nunes clubs Chandler on the side of the head with a huge left hand in the midst of a combination, and she draws Chandler into an early brawl. Nunes gets the better of the exchange to force Chandler to separate and strafe to the side, and Nunes gives chase and engages another slugfest. Chandler takes a few shots and ties the Brazilian up, but it does not take long for the shorter Nunes to turn her around perhaps thanks to her lower center of gravity. Nunes gets off a high knee, and she breaks off and just misses taking a hard elbow. Nunes swarms her opponent with a flurry of punches, clipping Chandler on the temple with a wild left. Chandler backs off and moves away from the small ball of power and fury, but Nunes catches up with her. Chandler attempts to slow her down again, clinching up and setting up a trip on the outside. Chandler succeeds in tripping Nunes to the mat, where she imposes her body weight on top of the slugger. Nunes tries to kick off, and Chandler opens up with a few punches. Nunes sets up a high guard, and she hacks with elbows while not letting Chandler throw much else. Nunes looks to lift one leg up high to set up a potential triangle, and she goes all the way over with her legs to hook up an armbar. Chandler lifts her up in the air and powerbombs her down, and Nunes lets it go instead of letting it sink it deeper. Chandler connects with several punches, and Nunes fights her way back up and absorbs a risky body kick on the way. Nunes lashes out with a blitz of punches, knocking Chandler back until Chandler stands her ground and fires back. The two measure one another with power strikes until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Round 2
Nunes loads up on vicious punches as soon as the round begins, and she stings Chandler in a flurry of blows. Nunes knocks Chandler down to a knee, and Chandler works her way back up. Nunes backs Chandler up again, laying into her with fiery fists, and Chandler swings back with bad intentions including a few body kicks. Nunes’ punches smash Chandler’s nose wide open, and blood leaks out of both nostrils. As they both trade, Nunes considers a level change, but Chandler tackles her over and shifts to full mount. Nunes turns to her side while maintaining wrist control, and Chandler takes her back and gets both hooks in. Nunes turns in an effort to escape, and Chandler follows her every step of the way to remain on top, although no longer in dominant position. Chandler opens up with a few strikes but would prefer to remain in top control, and Nunes closes her guard around the waist. Chandler slams a few elbows down to stay busy, dishing out damage as time ticks off the clock. Nunes hangs on tight to prevent any serious offense from mounting, as a small cut on the bridge of her nose drips blood into her eye. Chandler winds up with a few more elbows, and she stands back up with seconds to go before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Round 3
The last round kicks off with a body kick from the American. Nunes ducks down, swinging a right hand to the body, but she misses. Chandler digs another kick to the ribs, prompting Nunes to load up with a left hand that gets Chandler’s attention. Nunes unloads another overhand left, and she forces Chandler to retreat with her surge of punches. Chandler uses jabs to keep her distance until Nunes charges her, and the Brazilian’s strikes land as Chandler keeps moving. Nunes walks through a body kick and rocks Chandler with a left hook. Chandler bites down on her mouthpiece and slings back, and Nunes racks her again with a massive left. Chandler tries to tie her up with a clinch, and Nunes shakes her off and resets so she can race forward swinging her mighty fists. Chandler turns away from an exchange, and she gets to the center of the cage and sticks out a jab. Nunes passes the jab so she can wing her left, and her momentum allows Chandler to grab hold of her and slow her down. Chandler presses her full body weight and drives a few knees to the chest, but Nunes wants to break and throw hands. Nunes smacks her foe with a few more punches, and Chandler still has some bounce on her feet as she moves. Nunes connects with two heavy left hands, and Chandler tanks them and is no worse for wear. Nunes crowds her with a swarm of punches, and Chandler turns her back and lifts up a back kick that smacks into Nunes’ cheek. Nunes darts forward, leading with her left, and she gets driven back by a front kick to the ribs. Nunes continues to spam her left, and Chandler eats it like a slice of avocado toast and remains in the fight. Chandler pokes out a jab and starts taunting her opponent, who responds by punching her square in the face. Nunes leaps forward with two left hooks, and the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nunes (29-28 Nunes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nunes (29-28 Nunes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes (29-28 Nunes)
The Official Result
Chelsea Chandler def. Josiane Nunes via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo argues that Nunes looked worse in her last fight (barely beating a 40-year-old) than Chandler did (losing to a top-five opponent). He thinks Chandler is tough, powerful, and will be giant in this fight. He notes the over 2.5 rounds line is only -120 and expects a decision, as both are tough and Nunes is not a finisher. He may bet on Chandler if she becomes an even bigger dog, and also consider the over.
Big Brady picks Josiane Nunes to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Nunes' size disadvantage but thinks her striking and power will be enough if she stuffs takedowns. He does not trust either fighter and will not bet on this fight.
Cody picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her size and physicality advantage. He notes Nunes is one-dimensional with an overhand left and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. He expects Chandler to use her ground game and win by decision, but warns about Chandler's weight cut to 135 lbs.
The host sees this as striker vs grappler, with Chandler being much bigger and stronger. He expects Chandler to use her strength to bully Nunes against the cage, drag her to the ground, and assert top pressure to open up a TKO opportunity.
Paul also leans toward Chandler, noting Nunes will be dwarfed. He compares Nunes to a female version of Ilir Latifi, with no neck and a one-dimensional style. He thinks Chandler can press her against the cage and make it ugly, but emphasizes the weigh-ins are important for both fighters.
The Guru picks Josiane Nunes by TKO in round two. He notes Chandler's poor standup, throwing punches with eyes closed, and that Nunes has wicked power. He believes the bantamweight weight class favors Nunes, and that Chandler is too open on the feet. He references Chandler's loss to Norma Dumont where she looked lost.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 47 of 76 | 61% | 98 of 141 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:58 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 72 of 124 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norma Dumont | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 44 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 31 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Norma Dumont | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Norma Dumont | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norma Dumont | 47 of 76 | 61% | 30 of 59 | 12 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 49 | 10 of 12 | 9 of 15 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 22 of 61 | 36% | 14 of 51 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 44 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norma Dumont | 18 of 24 | 75% | 10 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 14 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 8 of 20 | 40% | 3 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Norma Dumont | 22 of 38 | 57% | 14 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 9 of 25 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Norma Dumont | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Chelsea Chandler | 5 of 16 | 31% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-140), Chandler (+120)
Round 1
Stop us if you’ve heard this one: this might be the final women’s featherweight bout in UFC history. This next bout will officially serve as the first between ranked combatants, although neither are ranked in the division in which they are competing because there is no ranking for featherweights. Both in the top 15 at 135 pounds, little should be at stake when Dumont (9-2, 5-2 UFC) faces off against Chandler (5-1, 1-0 UFC). Bad blood has entered this matchup, and they do not touch gloves in front of referee Jacob Montalvo. While they were wild on weigh-in day, they are anything but to lead off the bout. Chandler plods forward slowly, and she reaches out with a front kick and a few jabs. Chandler backs Dumont to the fence, and Dumont suddenly springs to life, with a fierce and furious combination of punches. Chandler is stunned and worse, and she actively turns her back and sprints from one end of the cage to the other in a bizarre display. Dumont chases after her, backing her up to the wall, and Chandler gathers her thoughts and tries to fight back. Dumont get off a body kick ad she circles away, and Chandler walks her down and walks into a punch. Chandler connects with her own left hand, and they end up tied up. Chandler looks for an outside trip or some way to put Dumont to the floor, but her attempts fail as Dumont turns her around. Chandler drives a knee to the torso, and she presses her weight on her opponent to slow things to a crawl. When Chandler commits to a takedown, the Brazilian reverses her and puts Chandler on her back. Chandler utilizes a high guard in an attempt to trap Dumont, but Dumont is wise to the triangle setup and keeps her body weight squeezed down as tightly as she can. Dumont smothers her foe without getting little else going in the way of offense, grinding and wearing Chandler down. With seconds to spare, Dumont drops down a short elbow and raps Chandler on the side of the head a few times before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Round 2
Chandler marches out of her corner willing to engage, but Dumont throw back with a vengeance to make Chandler think twice. Dumont gets off a calf kick, and she reaches out an overhand right. Chandler clips Dumont with a left hand, and her lead leg is kicked hard to make her change stances. Dumont kicks the other leg, and Chandler checks it. Chandler telegraphs a left hook, leading to a clinch when Dumont snatches her up and turns her around. Chandler breaks free and starts slugging, but she gets bopped with a one-two and her head snaps back. Chandler continues pressing forward, even coming up short in the exchanges, largely because her hands are too low and Dumont beats her to the punch. Dumont blasts her opponent in the face with a one-two, and she follows it with another as Chandler’s head movement is the kind that would force Coach Edmund to yell “head movement.” Dumont trips Chandler up and dumps her to the floor, where she falls flat on top of her and smothers again. Chandler gets put in a position where her neck is between the floor and the wall, but she still lifts her legs up high enough to potentially threaten with an armbar or a triangle choke. Dumont shucks out of it without concern and keeps top position. Chandler pushes Dumont up with her foot, and she drills her in the face with an upkick. Dumont gloms back down and imposes her weight and will, and Chandler still manages to muscle her way back up with the fence behind her. Chandler jockeys for position, turning about and leaning her shoulder on Dumont. They trade short knees to little effect, and the round ends with a push-off and a left hook from the Brazilian.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Round 3
The two featherweights nod at one another before starting off the last round, and Dumont strikes first in the form of a one-two. Chandler bobs her head up and down, but Dumont is easily able to time her movement and smack her in the face. Dumont then rushes forward, where she goes for a double or some sort of takedown to put her foe down. Chandler turns the tables on the Brazilian, taking Dumont for a ride. Dumont stands back up, and Chandler hangs on with a standing arm-triangle choke as she leans on Dumont against the wire. Dumont ignores it, gets out of the clinch and is followed with Chandler punching towards her. Dumont uses Chandler’s momentum against her and procures a body lock takedown. Dumont lowers herself on top, and Chandler rolls for a leglock. Dumont is able to move the proper direction to shut it down entirely, to the degree that she rolls Chandler over to her knees so that she can pound on her from behind. Chandler is unable to stand back up, as Dumont shoves her back over to her side. Dumont grinds an elbow on the cheek, and she sets up an arm-triangle choke with half guard on the other side. Chandler senses it being set up and thwarts it by getting her arm between the gripping arm and her head. Dumont postures up with 45 seconds to go, slugging Chandler in the face from above. Chandler throws her legs up high for a possible armbar, and when Dumont stands up, Chandler swings upkicks at her. Dumont warily lowers herself back into the active guard, and she ends the exhausting fight in this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (30-27 Dumont)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (30-27 Dumont)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (30-27 Dumont)
The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Chelsea Chandler via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Chelsea Chandler for the upset, calling her the far more dangerous fighter. He notes Norma has a clear advantage in experience and fight IQ, but she got rocked by Carol Rosa, and Chelsea can do the same. He recommends betting on Chelsea wins inside the distance with decision no action, meaning if it goes to decision he gets a refund. He believes Norma is not dangerous and Chelsea is tough, so if anyone is finished, it's Norma.
Big Brady picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her aggression and dog mentality. He admits Dumont is probably the better fighter but thinks Chandler's aggressiveness will go a long way. He expects a close decision where Chandler does a little more across 15 minutes, possibly landing harder shots or getting takedowns. He calls the fight 'greasy' and says he's not betting on it.
Cody leans toward Chandler as a value play at plus money, noting Dumont's low volume and Chandler's aggressive style. He thinks Chandler lands the better shots and that the judges may favor damage and output over cage control. He acknowledges it's a 50/50 fight and prefers the plus money. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds, thinking Chandler could overwhelm Dumont early.
The host believes Dumont is the better striker and will put together solid combinations to damage Chandler. He thinks Chandler's lack of experience and raw game will be exposed, and Dumont may even get a TKO finish due to the skill gap on the feet.
Paul leans toward Chandler as an underdog, citing her bruiser style and high pace in her debut. He thinks her forward pressure and volume could overwhelm Dumont, who has low output. He notes the price is attractive at +120 and expects a close fight. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds at +180, thinking Chandler might finish early.
The MMA Guru picks Norma Dumont over Chelsea Chandler, emphasizing Dumont's proven track record against higher-level competition, including wins over Karol Rosa and a close fight with Irene Aldana. He dismisses Chandler's win over Julija Stoliarenko and notes her losses to Alexis Davis and Julia Avila. He predicts Dumont wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 38 of 70 | 54% | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 38 of 70 | 54% | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In a pre-planned catchweight affair at 140 pounds, proud Lithuanian Stoliarenko (10-6-2, 1-4 UFC) wants to keep her modicum of momentum going after winning her first UFC appearance after five tries. She faces off against promotional newcomer Chandler (4-1, 0-0 UFC), plucked from the Invicta ranks but with the Diaz brothers in her camp. Referee Jacob Montalvo watches on as the two decide not to touch gloves, and instead they want to go after it early. Chandler lands a kick, and when she lines up a punch, Stoliarenko plods forward and takes her down. Within seconds, Stoliarenko shifts right into full mount, and she transitions into her favorite armbar setup. Chandler is wise to it, and she flips Stoliarenko over and breaks up the armlock before it is secured. The Stockton, Calif., native unloads with ground-and-pound when she is safe from submission harm, and she hammers Stoliarenko with several powerful blows. Stoliarenko kicks off the fence to get out of the bad situation, and finds her way back to the feet. Chandler catches her with a clean right hand as Stoliarenko resets, and Stoliarenko staggers back and looks to get her feet back beneath her. Stoliarenko is marked up from absorbing strikes, and slightly wobbled on the feet, and Chandler is loading up on heavy strikes. When Stoliarenko shoots in for a takedown, she drops to her knees and is bowled over. Chandler moves immediately into mount, and she makes Stoliarenko pay for the takedown try. Stoliarenko bucks and lifts her legs up high, and in doing so, she forces Chandler to climb back upright. Stoliarenko desperately shoots for a takedown, and Chandler hip tosses her to the mat and raises her arms up in typical Diaz-esque fashion. Stoliarenko stands up and backs off, and when she attempts another takedown, Chandler easily pushes her to her back and moves to mount.
Sensing that the Lithuanian is starting to wilt, Chandler turns it up to 11 and starts battering Stoliarenko with heavy punches. The shots are getting through and Montalvo is right there paying attention. Chandler keeps bombarding her doomed opponent with relentless fists, and Montalvo steps in to rescue Stoliarenko from further harm.
The Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu product has just announced herself to the promotion in a big way, putting away a woman that had not been stopped with strikes since 2014.
The Official Result
Chelsea Chandler def. Julija Stoliarenko R1 4:15 via TKO (Punches)
Cody leans towards Julija Stoliarenko, noting her dangerous armbar and improved striking. He is concerned about Chandler's size and the catchweight, but believes Stoliarenko's submission threat is real. He prefers the submission prop but may wait for weigh-ins to assess size discrepancy.
Paul picks Julija Stoliarenko by submission, noting her specialty is the armbar and she has shown improvement in her overall game. He acknowledges Chandler is bigger and has some jiu-jitsu, but believes Stoliarenko's experience and ability to capitalize on mistakes will be key. He suggests waiting for a better price on the submission prop.
The MMA Guru leans toward Julija Stoliarenko, noting her specific skill set of armbars and judo. He thinks she can take Chandler down and control her on the ground, possibly submitting her. He is less confident because Chandler is untested and has a thyroid issue affecting weight cut, but he believes Stoliarenko has faced better competition. He calls it a pick'em fight.
Julija Stoliarenko - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 59 of 114 | 51% | 59 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 61 of 161 | 37% | 64 of 167 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 59 of 114 | 51% | 38 of 91 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 58 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 61 of 161 | 37% | 28 of 117 | 13 of 20 | 20 of 24 | 56 of 154 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 19 of 45 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 19 of 47 | 40% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 12 | 19 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 23 of 38 | 60% | 14 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 18 of 43 | 41% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 24 of 71 | 33% | 10 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her powerful striking and decent jiu-jitsu. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but has sloppy striking and is either armbar or nothing. Angelo believes if Gabriella can defend takedowns, she will beat Julija up and potentially finish her. He started with low confidence but moved to medium confidence.
Big Brady is confident in Gabriella Fernandes, describing Julija Stoliarenko as the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC with only an armbar threat. He notes Stoliarenko has no striking, no wrestling, and has been finished multiple times. Brady believes Fernandes will dominate on the feet and can also do damage on top if the fight goes to the ground. He predicts Fernandes will knock out Stoliarenko in the second round.
The host highlights Fernandes' striking advantage and physicality, expecting her to keep the fight standing and pick apart Stoliarenko from distance. He predicts a headkick knockout, showing confidence in a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her recent win over Wang Cong and her solid jiu-jitsu. He believes Stoliarenko is a finish-or-be-finished fighter but Fernandes has the grappling to avoid submissions. He predicts a first or second round finish for Fernandes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 138 of 230 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:27 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 16 of 59 | 27% | 21 of 68 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 0 | 3:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 6 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 25 of 55 | 45% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 60 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 66 of 136 | 48% | 41 of 96 | 15 of 26 | 10 of 14 | 28 of 75 | 13 of 20 | 25 of 41 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 16 of 59 | 27% | 7 of 40 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 9 | 11 of 51 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 12 of 32 | 37% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 25 | 24% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 25 of 55 | 45% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 13 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 10 of 28 | 35% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 29 of 49 | 59% | 22 of 38 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 5 of 10 | 17 of 27 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Julija Stoliarenko to win but strongly advises against betting on her. He compares her to Malcolm Gordon, a previous 'cash cow' that lost. He notes that Stoliarenko's path to victory is getting a takedown, but she is not a good fighter overall. He emphasizes that Luana Carolina is the better fighter overall but has been taken down frequently, which could be exploited.
Big Brady picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by first-round armbar. He notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with 10 wins by armbar, all in the first round. He believes her aggressiveness and improved wrestling will cause problems for Luana Carolina, who has questionable decision-making and has almost been submitted in recent fights. He expects the fight to hit the mat, where Stoliarenko is extremely dangerous.
Cody picks Stoliarenko by submission, calling it the play of the week. He notes Stoliarenko's elite armbar from guard and Carolina's poor takedown defense and physical strength. He expects Stoliarenko to get the fight to the mat and submit her quickly.
Stoliarenko's persistence and expertise in armbars should be too much for Carolina. Once Stoliarenko snatches an arm, it's only a matter of time before she gets the tap. Carolina's takedown defense is improving, but Stoliarenko's strength and Judo will likely get the fight to the ground.
Paul picks Stoliarenko by submission, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Carolina's vulnerability to takedowns and Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He thinks the plus-205 price is excellent value.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko, questioning whether Stoliarenko is actually good or just benefited from Molly McCann's poor ground game. He notes Carolina has better standup and overall ability, and that Stoliarenko has a rough weight cut at 125. He expects Carolina to win, likely as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Molly McCann | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Molly McCann | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Molly McCann | 9 of 29 | 31% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Molly McCann | 9 of 29 | 31% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is extremely confident in Molly McCann, calling this a showcase fight. He believes she will win, possibly by stoppage, and suggests she could be parlayed. He notes the odds are -400 but thinks she could be even more favored.
Big Brady picks Molly McCann to win by first-round knockout, but predicts Stoliarenko will miss weight. He notes Stoliarenko is dangerous on the ground with armbars but has no striking or wrestling. He thinks McCann will keep it standing and knock her out. He calls it a setup fight for McCann in London. He is concerned if the fight goes to the mat.
Cody thinks McCann wins by out-volume and avoiding takedowns. He notes Stoliarenko's path is submission only, and the sub prop at +350 is too short for him. He would only bet Stoliarenko sub at +500 or better.
Daniel is very confident Molly McCann will win, calling Stoliarenko 'one of the worst fighters on the roster'. He believes Molly is better on the feet and can take Stoliarenko down as long as she avoids the armbar. He expects a highlight-reel finish and notes the line at -190 is good value to fade Stoliarenko. He dismisses comparisons to high-level grapplers like Erin Blanchfield, stating Stoliarenko is not on that level.
The host picks Molly McCann, citing her speed, striking advantage, and ability to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges the danger of Stoliarenko's armbar but believes McCann can avoid it. He predicts a knockout win and mentions waiting for a better price around -200.
Paul sees this as a setup for McCann, noting Stoliarenko is 1-5 in the UFC and her only win is over a retired fighter. He thinks McCann is popular in the UK and will be re-motivated after a loss to Blanchfield. He expects McCann to roll, though he jokes about a first-round armbar loss.
The MMA Guru picks Molly McCann, noting Dana White's investment in Barstool fighters. He praises McCann's toughness, chin, and scrappy style, and believes she can keep the fight on the feet. He criticizes Julija Stoliarenko's recent losses and lack of success unless she gets the fight to the ground. The Guru predicts McCann will win a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 38 of 70 | 54% | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 38 of 70 | 54% | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In a pre-planned catchweight affair at 140 pounds, proud Lithuanian Stoliarenko (10-6-2, 1-4 UFC) wants to keep her modicum of momentum going after winning her first UFC appearance after five tries. She faces off against promotional newcomer Chandler (4-1, 0-0 UFC), plucked from the Invicta ranks but with the Diaz brothers in her camp. Referee Jacob Montalvo watches on as the two decide not to touch gloves, and instead they want to go after it early. Chandler lands a kick, and when she lines up a punch, Stoliarenko plods forward and takes her down. Within seconds, Stoliarenko shifts right into full mount, and she transitions into her favorite armbar setup. Chandler is wise to it, and she flips Stoliarenko over and breaks up the armlock before it is secured. The Stockton, Calif., native unloads with ground-and-pound when she is safe from submission harm, and she hammers Stoliarenko with several powerful blows. Stoliarenko kicks off the fence to get out of the bad situation, and finds her way back to the feet. Chandler catches her with a clean right hand as Stoliarenko resets, and Stoliarenko staggers back and looks to get her feet back beneath her. Stoliarenko is marked up from absorbing strikes, and slightly wobbled on the feet, and Chandler is loading up on heavy strikes. When Stoliarenko shoots in for a takedown, she drops to her knees and is bowled over. Chandler moves immediately into mount, and she makes Stoliarenko pay for the takedown try. Stoliarenko bucks and lifts her legs up high, and in doing so, she forces Chandler to climb back upright. Stoliarenko desperately shoots for a takedown, and Chandler hip tosses her to the mat and raises her arms up in typical Diaz-esque fashion. Stoliarenko stands up and backs off, and when she attempts another takedown, Chandler easily pushes her to her back and moves to mount.
Sensing that the Lithuanian is starting to wilt, Chandler turns it up to 11 and starts battering Stoliarenko with heavy punches. The shots are getting through and Montalvo is right there paying attention. Chandler keeps bombarding her doomed opponent with relentless fists, and Montalvo steps in to rescue Stoliarenko from further harm.
The Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu product has just announced herself to the promotion in a big way, putting away a woman that had not been stopped with strikes since 2014.
The Official Result
Chelsea Chandler def. Julija Stoliarenko R1 4:15 via TKO (Punches)
Cody leans towards Julija Stoliarenko, noting her dangerous armbar and improved striking. He is concerned about Chandler's size and the catchweight, but believes Stoliarenko's submission threat is real. He prefers the submission prop but may wait for weigh-ins to assess size discrepancy.
Paul picks Julija Stoliarenko by submission, noting her specialty is the armbar and she has shown improvement in her overall game. He acknowledges Chandler is bigger and has some jiu-jitsu, but believes Stoliarenko's experience and ability to capitalize on mistakes will be key. He suggests waiting for a better price on the submission prop.
The MMA Guru leans toward Julija Stoliarenko, noting her specific skill set of armbars and judo. He thinks she can take Chandler down and control her on the ground, possibly submitting her. He is less confident because Chandler is untested and has a thyroid issue affecting weight cut, but he believes Stoliarenko has faced better competition. He calls it a pick'em fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 9 of 16 | 56% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 9 of 16 | 56% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her slick striking and evolving grappling. He notes that Stoliarenko has zero wrestling and poor takedown accuracy, making it unlikely she can get the fight to the ground where she is dangerous. He believes Clark's cleaner striking will allow her to cruise to a decision.
Big Brady picks Jessica-Rose Clark but is hesitant due to Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He notes Clark is the better striker and should implement a wrestling game plan like Alexis Davis did, but worries about Clark's submission defense. He expects Clark to win by decision if she avoids the armbar.
Cody thinks Stoliarenko is better on the feet and has submission threats. He notes Clark's takedowns could lead to armbar opportunities for Stoliarenko. He picks Stoliarenko but isn't confident enough for a Shoei bet.
Daniel Levi picks Jessica-Rose Clark, believing she is better everywhere except against the armbar. He notes that Clark has a history of making mental mistakes, such as in her last fight where she did the one thing they trained not to do. He is wary of Stoliarenko's armbar specialty but thinks Clark should win if she fights smart. He does not bet due to recency bias and lack of trust.
Stoliarenko is a submission specialist with 8 of 9 wins via armbar. Clark can be sloppy on top and Stoliarenko will threaten submissions from her back. Clark's win over Sarah Alpar may be overvalued; she was exposed by Stephanie Edgar. Stoliarenko's armbar is a live threat at plus money.
Paul leans toward Stoliarenko, noting her submission skills and striking. He thinks Clark's best path is to clinch, but Stoliarenko can win on the feet or via submission. He recommends taking the moneyline rather than props.
The MMA Guru picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her improved grappling training at AKA and her ability to use it against Julija Stoliarenko, who has been outgrappled repeatedly in the UFC. He notes Stoliarenko has nothing off her back and expects Clark to cruise to a 30-27 unanimous decision with top control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Davis | 0 | 85 of 120 | 70% | 171 of 218 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 9:09 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 56 of 113 | 49% | 93 of 154 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexis Davis | 0 | 22 of 26 | 84% | 63 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexis Davis | 0 | 38 of 60 | 63% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 45 of 96 | 46% | 45 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexis Davis | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 70 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 28 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Davis | 85 of 120 | 70% | 55 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 21 of 22 | 41 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 55 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 56 of 113 | 49% | 40 of 94 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 51 of 108 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexis Davis | 22 of 26 | 84% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 26 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alexis Davis | 38 of 60 | 63% | 14 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 20 | 37 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 45 of 96 | 46% | 32 of 81 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexis Davis | 25 of 34 | 73% | 19 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 29 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Alexis Davis as the veteran with experience and fight IQ. He notes Davis is a busy striker with a one-to-one striking differential, but she loses only to top-ranked opponents. Stoliarenko has great jiu-jitsu but poor wrestling and striking. Angelo expects Davis to dominate with combinations and avoid submission threats.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Davis has better striking, pace, and ground game. He thinks Stoliarenko is not on Davis's level. He is confident Davis wins but acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable.
Daniel Levi picks Alexis Davis but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Davis is a veteran with experience, but she has lost four of her last five and is 38. Stoliarenko is known for armbars off her back. Levi thinks Davis should win but the -240 price is too high, so he advises passing or taking the dog. He picks Davis but says it's not a betting opportunity.
Lock of the Night picks Davis, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Stoliarenko's only path is armbar, but Davis is a tenured black belt. He expects Davis to win via decision or possibly finish. He likes Davis by decision at even money.
Paul thinks Davis has superior skills everywhere and should win easily. He notes that Stoliarenko's only threat is an armbar, but Davis is a veteran who should avoid that. He is confident Davis wins by decision and likes the Davis by decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Alexis Davis, calling her underrated despite her record. He notes she has had close fights with top fighters like Viviane Araujo and Jennifer Maia, but often loses due to being cut by bigger shots. He dismisses Julija Stoliarenko as 'hot trash' and predicts a 30-26 decision win for Davis, with a 10-8 third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 0 | 48 of 91 | 52% | 107 of 163 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 2 | 3:31 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 40 of 94 | 42% | 60 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 42 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 36 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 3:03 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 48 of 91 | 52% | 31 of 72 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 42 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 40 of 94 | 42% | 27 of 73 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 12 | 37 of 88 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 29 of 58 | 50% | 21 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 27 of 65 | 41% | 18 of 49 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 27 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 17 of 30 | 56% | 8 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Julia Avila, reasoning that Stoliarenko will accept being on her back, throw up submissions but not get any, and end up losing a decision. He notes Avila is a heavy-handed brawler who is aggressive on top. He advises staying away from Avila in betting due to high price but likes the over on strikes.
Big Brady picks Julia Avila to win by KO, citing her massive striking advantage and strength. He warns against going to the ground with Stoliarenko, who has eight armbar wins, but believes Avila can keep it standing and finish. He notes Stoliarenko's poor wrestling and that she has been finished by strikes in half her losses. He would not bet Avila at -400 but expects her to win.
Cody picks Avila, noting her athletic background and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Stoliarenko's level of competition and one-dimensional armbar game. He thinks Avila's striking and top game will be too much, and Stoliarenko's only path is pulling guard, which plays into Avila's strength. He is confident but acknowledges the price is high.
Jacob picks Julija Stoliarenko, citing her judo throw into armbar that she has done many times. He mentions that Joe Todora says Avila is his girl so he will stay away from her. Jacob is confident Stoliarenko finds a way to get the submission.
Avila should keep the fight on the feet and overpower Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko is dangerous off her back with armbars, so Avila must be careful. Avila will look for a knockout via ground and pound after dropping her. The under 2.5 rounds is intriguing as both are live for finishes. However, Avila at -345 is not a betting recommendation.
Paul picks Avila, noting Stoliarenko's poor UFC debut and limited skills. He thinks Avila's wrestling and striking are superior. He is not excited about the -360 price but sees Avila as a safe play. He mentions that Stoliarenko passed out on the scale in their previous booking, which is a red flag.
The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila, noting her better record, competition, and technique. He highlights her hands and combination punching, referencing her first-round finish of Gina Mazany. He also points out Stoliarenko's severe weight cut issues (fainting on the scales twice) as a major red flag, making Avila the safer bet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 43 of 57 | 75% | 209 of 254 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 13:16 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 30 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 64 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 23 of 26 | 88% | 92 of 108 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:44 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 53 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Kunitskaya | 43 of 57 | 75% | 20 of 34 | 20 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 19 | 29 of 32 | 6 of 6 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Kunitskaya | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yana Kunitskaya | 23 of 26 | 88% | 11 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 20 | 5 of 5 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yana Kunitskaya | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kunitskaya but is not confident enough to bet her. He believes she is the better striker and can win by staying off the ground, but worries she might take Stoliarenko down, which plays into Stoliarenko's submission game. He compares it to the Balbina vs Jojua fight where a similar mistake led to a loss. He predicts a decision win for Kunitskaya.
Daniel Levi picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by submission, specifically an armbar. He acknowledges that Yana Kunitskaya is the better fighter overall but believes she is prone to getting submitted, as seen in her past fights. Levi notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with many first-round finishes, and he expects her to pull guard and secure the submission at some point during the fight.
Kunitskaya is technically superior with good kickboxing and range control. However, she struggles in the pocket and can be pressured. Stoliarenko is a brawler with devastating elbows and a dangerous armbar from the clinch. The line at -235 is too wide; Stoliarenko offers value at +200. Kunitskaya likely wins by decision if she keeps it at range, but Stoliarenko could finish.
The MMA Guru picks Yana Kunitskaya because she has good clinch control and can hold opponents against the cage, as seen in her fight with Aspen Ladd. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is taking the fight on short notice and went to a split decision against a lesser opponent. He believes Kunitskaya's clinch work will be the difference.
Expert Picks (3)
Cody leans towards Julija Stoliarenko, noting her dangerous armbar and improved striking. He is concerned about Chandler's size and the catchweight, but believes Stoliarenko's submission threat is real. He prefers the submission prop but may wait for weigh-ins to assess size discrepancy.
Paul picks Julija Stoliarenko by submission, noting her specialty is the armbar and she has shown improvement in her overall game. He acknowledges Chandler is bigger and has some jiu-jitsu, but believes Stoliarenko's experience and ability to capitalize on mistakes will be key. He suggests waiting for a better price on the submission prop.
The MMA Guru leans toward Julija Stoliarenko, noting her specific skill set of armbars and judo. He thinks she can take Chandler down and control her on the ground, possibly submitting her. He is less confident because Chandler is untested and has a thyroid issue affecting weight cut, but he believes Stoliarenko has faced better competition. He calls it a pick'em fight.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!