Career Averages - Josh Emmett
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
Josh Emmett - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 2 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 43 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 2 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 43 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 36 of 55 | 65% | 30 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 21 | 10 of 14 | 14 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 36 of 55 | 65% | 30 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 21 | 10 of 14 | 14 of 20 |
Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.
Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.
Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.
Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.
James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.
The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.
Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.
The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.
Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-440), Emmett (+340)
Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when it paired brick-fisted Emmett (19-5, 10-5 UFC) with whirling dervish Zalal (17-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC), and a passing of the torch moment may come when the dust settles. While Emmett may have passed the 40-year-old threshold, the last thing to go is the power. Referee Jason Herzog dons his proverbial hard hat as the two featherweight contenders touch ‘em up.
Zalal approaches with his hands wide by his sides, and his leg ready to fly. Zalal lands a quick kick and darts out of the way when Emmett bears down on him. Zalal whiffs on a front kick, and he shoots for a double when Emmett is about to strike. Zalal succeeds in grounding the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete with ease, and he advances to three-quarter mount while clinging to an arm-triangle setup. Emmett muscles his man over, and Zalal isolates his foe’s arm in pursuit of an armbar. Emmett keeps his weight pressed down on top, and he starts stepping over to try to get out of the sub. With Emmett’s arms both trapped, he is stunned and has to call out “tap tap tap” in order to signal that he is done and does not want to get his limb snapped. The crowd is silenced as Herzog steps in, not entirely knowing what has just happened. Fans start booing until they realize that Emmett verbally surrendered, and then they chill out because Zalal just notched an extremely impressive victory over a perennial contender in under two minutes. In victory, Zalal declares that he will be champion one day.
The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Josh Emmett R1 1:38 via Submission (Armbar)
Angelo picks Youssef Zalal, citing his ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler. He notes Zalal's high fight IQ and low strikes absorbed per minute. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's power and experience but thinks Zalal's versatility and youth will be key. He is surprised Zalal is almost a 4-to-1 favorite and would set the line at -170.
Big Brady sees this as an easy win for Zalal, who is in his prime at 29, while Emmett is 40 and fighting at featherweight. He believes Zalal can use his speed and footwork to avoid Emmett's power and mix in takedowns. He predicts Zalal by decision.
Connor picks Zalal, agreeing that Zalal's movement and ability to fight at range will give Emmett problems. He notes that Emmett's only major improvement was learning to throw punches at two speeds, but he still lacks dexterity and cage-cutting skills. Connor also mentions that Zalal's performance against Calvin Katter showed he can neutralize opponents, though he cautions that Emmett's power is a constant threat.
Zalal's style is expected to be too difficult for Emmett to track. Emmett may land some big shots, but Zalal should flow with them and get off his own offense, winning a boring decision.
The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal, believing his counter-striking and movement will frustrate Josh Emmett. He notes Emmett's predictable overhands and lack of grappling. He predicts a late TKO via knee up the middle.
Zane picks Zalal because he believes Zalal can frustrate Emmett with movement and range control, similar to how Laron Murphy and Yair Rodriguez did. He notes that Emmett lacks a range game and struggles when opponents refuse to engage in the pocket. Zane also points out that Zalal is a dangerous striker with good combinations and that Emmett's limited offensive toolkit makes him vulnerable to a neutralizing game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 41 of 143 | 28% | 44 of 149 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 84 of 157 | 53% | 117 of 195 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 11 of 44 | 25% | 11 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 41 of 143 | 28% | 29 of 124 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 40 of 133 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 3 |
| Lerone Murphy | 84 of 157 | 53% | 37 of 90 | 17 of 30 | 30 of 37 | 75 of 148 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 13 of 21 | 61% | 2 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 5 of 25 | 20% | 3 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 21 of 36 | 58% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 13 of 38 | 34% | 9 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 22 of 41 | 53% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 11 of 44 | 25% | 10 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 18 of 35 | 51% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.
Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.
Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.
Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 1 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-225), Emmett (+185)
Round 1
On short notice, this featherweight pairing turned from a striker’s delight to a classic striker vs. grappler affair. Ready to throw hands aplenty will be Emmett (18-4, 9-4 UFC), while late replacement and grappling ace Mitchell (16-1, 7-1 UFC) wishes to shut that all down. 2023 Referee of the Year Herb Dean will be the third man in the Octagon, and the fighters are glad to be fighting tonight but do not express it with a glove touch. Mitchell starts off with pressure, but Emmett reaches out with a right hand to the body. Mitchell backs off and aims a low kick, and Emmett evades it and responds in kind. The fighters keep a wide berth from one another, and Emmett eventually moves forward and aims another right to the midsection. Emmett gets off a left hand and tries to follow it with a huge right hook, but Mitchell is out of the way before the latter connects. With malice in his eyes, Emmett unloads a bomb of a right hand that detonates flush on Mitchell’s chin. Mitchell goes down on his side in a heap, and he is completely out. Emmett lets out a guttural victory scream as Dean grabs him from behind to make sure that Emmett will not pursue a follow-up shot. As Dean lets go, he tends to the fallen Mitchell, who begins convulsing in unconsciousness. Medical staff members rush into the cage when alerted to Mitchell’s scary condition, as Mitchell goes into a full-blown grand mal seizure. After some time, Mitchell recovers and learns that he was starched. He tries to get back to his feet, but he cannot stand on his own. Mitchell is helped out of the cage, in good spirits despite just suffering a crushing defeat, and when Emmett feels comfortable celebrating, he does so with his corner of Team Alpha Male—which went 3-0 tonight, after Fili, Garbrandt and Emmett all recorded knockout wins. Hello, "Knockout of the Year"? You have a new contender calling.
The Official Result
Josh Emmett def. Bryce Mitchell R1 1:57 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell, trusting his wrestling to overcome Josh Emmett's power. He notes that Emmett is older and has abandoned wrestling for knockouts, while Mitchell is a relentless grappler. He has a half-unit bet on Mitchell at -140.
Big Brady picks Josh Emmett as an underdog, citing concerns about Bryce Mitchell's short notice and reliance on relentless wrestling. He notes Emmett's wrestling background and that no one has consistently taken him down and controlled him. Brady highlights Emmett's power (7 consecutive fights with a knockdown) and believes if Mitchell can't get takedowns, he'll get knocked out. He predicts a damage-based decision or knockout for Emmett.
Cody picks Mitchell, arguing that Mitchell's wrestling and physical strength will be too much for Emmett. He notes that Emmett has poor takedown defense and that Mitchell will grind on him, break him down, and secure a finish. Cody also points out that Emmett is 38 and coming off a brutal beating from Ilia Topuria, while Mitchell is a contender on the rise. He expects Mitchell to win inside the distance.
Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell, believing he will get takedowns and work from top. He notes that Josh Emmett gets taken down often and gives up his back, and that Emmett is slowing down. He thinks Mitchell's tenacity and youth (29) will be key, and that even on the feet Mitchell can hold his own. He sees this as a spot where the favorite is justified, unlike other fights on the card.
The host believes Mitchell's smothering grappling will be too much for Emmett, who is 38 and coming off a brutal loss to Topuria. He notes that Mitchell can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and bully Emmett to the mat, where he can grind out a decision or find a submission. He acknowledges Emmett's power but thinks Mitchell's durability and ability to avoid clean shots will allow him to implement his game plan. He predicts Mitchell by decision.
Paul picks Emmett at +200, questioning why Mitchell is such a big favorite. He notes that Emmett has power and can make it a tough night for Mitchell if the fight stays standing. He acknowledges Emmett's takedown defense is a concern (46%) but believes Emmett's explosiveness and power give him a chance. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at the underdog price.
The Guru picks Josh Emmett over Bryce Mitchell, noting Emmett's power, wrestling background, and full camp (originally preparing for Giga Chikadze). He believes Mitchell's takedowns won't succeed due to Emmett's short, stocky build and takedown defense, and that Mitchell will be vulnerable on the feet. He predicts a TKO win for Emmett.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 87 of 305 | 28% | 89 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 152 of 344 | 44% | 171 of 365 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 14 of 68 | 20% | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 19 of 68 | 27% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 13 of 52 | 25% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 56 of 100 | 56% | 62 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 87 of 305 | 28% | 43 of 232 | 26 of 53 | 18 of 20 | 87 of 305 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 152 of 344 | 44% | 124 of 302 | 9 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 114 of 289 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 14 of 68 | 20% | 8 of 58 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 68 | 27% | 8 of 47 | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 30 of 75 | 40% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 31 of 81 | 38% | 16 of 60 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 37 of 91 | 40% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 13 of 52 | 25% | 6 of 39 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 56 of 100 | 56% | 50 of 90 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 43 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 36 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)
Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.
Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.
Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.
The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.
Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.
Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 62 of 107 | 57% | 98 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 66 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 17 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 62 of 107 | 57% | 36 of 76 | 18 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 87 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 11 |
| Josh Emmett | 22 of 52 | 42% | 17 of 44 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 26 of 53 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 |
| Josh Emmett | 12 of 26 | 46% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 36 of 54 | 66% | 22 of 37 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 |
| Josh Emmett | 10 of 26 | 38% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.
Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.
Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.
Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.
Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.
Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.
Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 130 of 375 | 34% | 131 of 376 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 107 of 332 | 32% | 107 of 332 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 19 of 66 | 28% | 19 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 41 of 106 | 38% | 41 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 21 of 80 | 26% | 21 of 80 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 34 of 86 | 39% | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 130 of 375 | 34% | 114 of 351 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 130 of 375 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 107 of 332 | 32% | 73 of 286 | 26 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 106 of 330 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 14 of 39 | 35% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 11 of 35 | 31% | 8 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 22 of 78 | 28% | 20 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 26 of 73 | 35% | 19 of 63 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 19 of 66 | 28% | 18 of 62 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 27 of 77 | 35% | 18 of 65 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 41 of 106 | 38% | 35 of 98 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 106 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 21 of 80 | 26% | 13 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 34 of 86 | 39% | 29 of 79 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 22 of 67 | 32% | 15 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.
Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.
Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.
Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 60 of 165 | 36% | 62 of 167 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:47 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 70 of 168 | 41% | 73 of 171 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 1 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:36 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 25 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 20 of 70 | 28% | 21 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 22 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 60 of 165 | 36% | 51 of 151 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 48 of 151 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
| Dan Ige | 70 of 168 | 41% | 54 of 147 | 9 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 68 of 164 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 14 of 31 | 45% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Dan Ige | 23 of 50 | 46% | 18 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 26 of 64 | 40% | 21 of 58 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 25 of 56 | 44% | 20 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 20 of 70 | 28% | 19 of 67 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 22 of 62 | 35% | 16 of 52 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win, but with some hesitation due to Emmett's age (36) and layoff. He notes that Emmett is one of the hardest hitters in the division, with knockdowns in his last six fights. Ige is durable and has never been finished, but has been knocked down before. Brady expects Emmett's power to be the key, possibly leading to a decision win if he can't finish Ige. He also mentions that Ige is younger and the line movement favors Ige.
Daniel Levi picks Josh Emmett to win, highlighting his incredible volume and power. He notes that Emmett's strike output increases as the fight progresses, unlike typical power punchers. Levi mentions Emmett's wrestling background and his most knockdowns in featherweight history. He believes Emmett is a bad matchup for Dan Ige, who tends to take rounds off and has defensive issues. Levi sees value in Emmett at -150, opening at -200, and expects a knockout or dominant decision.
The MMA Guru picks Josh Emmett to win by decision (29-28). He praises Emmett's power, footwork, and technical striking, noting his ability to drop opponents with jabs. He believes Dan Ige was exposed by Korean Zombie and lacks the technical ability to handle Emmett's power and movement.
Michael Johnson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.
Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.
Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.
James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.
The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.
Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.
Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 80 of 195 | 41% | 81 of 196 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 52 of 182 | 28% | 52 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 30 of 77 | 38% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 80 of 195 | 41% | 27 of 100 | 42 of 81 | 11 of 14 | 77 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 52 of 182 | 28% | 19 of 125 | 27 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 50 of 180 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 24 of 56 | 42% | 4 of 22 | 15 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 12 of 46 | 26% | 2 of 23 | 7 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 77 | 38% | 14 of 47 | 10 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 66 | 25% | 7 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 26 of 62 | 41% | 9 of 31 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 23 of 70 | 32% | 10 of 51 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.
Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.
Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.
The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.
Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.
Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.
Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.
Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.
Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 61 of 112 | 54% | 80 of 138 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:02 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 52 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 40 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 61 of 112 | 54% | 16 of 47 | 36 of 52 | 9 of 13 | 58 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Darrius Flowers | 33 of 64 | 51% | 10 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 32 of 60 | 53% | 7 of 23 | 17 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrius Flowers | 20 of 36 | 55% | 1 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 8 of 20 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Darrius Flowers | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Darrius Flowers | 6 of 8 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.
Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.
Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 46 | 10 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 32 of 58 | 55% | 13 of 34 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 24 of 55 | 43% | 13 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.
Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.
Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.
The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.
Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 83 of 181 | 45% | 83 of 181 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 55 of 127 | 43% | 55 of 127 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 83 of 181 | 45% | 37 of 116 | 37 of 55 | 9 of 10 | 79 of 171 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 3 |
| Marc Diakiese | 55 of 127 | 43% | 21 of 80 | 24 of 31 | 10 of 16 | 52 of 124 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Marc Diakiese | 23 of 38 | 60% | 6 of 16 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 61 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 11 of 40 | 27% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 41 of 79 | 51% | 18 of 48 | 19 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Marc Diakiese | 21 of 49 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 19 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.
Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.
Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.
The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.
Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.
Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 66 of 190 | 34% | 68 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 96 of 217 | 44% | 96 of 218 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 45 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 31 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 66 of 190 | 34% | 42 of 147 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 179 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 96 of 217 | 44% | 54 of 160 | 21 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 83 of 195 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 44 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 45 of 95 | 47% | 24 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 34 of 79 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 70 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 31 of 69 | 44% | 20 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.
Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.
Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.
The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.
Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.
The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.
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