UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Mar 30, 2019 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 5' 3"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez
4.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.27 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jessica Aguilar
4.93 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
7.19 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.94 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Marina Rodriguez - Fight History
KO R2 2:07 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 17 23% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 16 of 41 39% 73 of 120 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 13 15% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 11 of 25 44% 42 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 16 31% 31 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 16 of 41 39% 12 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 20 0 of 0 10 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 13 15% 2 of 11 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 11 of 25 44% 7 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 8
2 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 16 31% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.

"Jillian is the pick. And because Marina is so battle tested, this could be a split decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.

Decision win
"Got to be Robertson here. Um she's much younger. Um I think she's been looking great at Strowway."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 2, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson because she has been improving and knows her win condition, while Rodriguez has lost a step and confidence. He notes that Robertson is a bully at strawweight, willing to eat shots to impose her grappling, and that Rodriguez is a terrible defensive wrestler and a slow starter who often gives up takedowns in the first round. He also mentions that Rodriguez's recent losses show she can't think her way out of simple puzzles.

Robertson opened at -293, currently -310; Rodriguez opened at +217, currently +264. Connor says the odds are about right.
"Very hard not to pick Robertson here. It really is."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.

submission
"I fully expect Robertson to grind this fight out, landing those opportune takedowns and taking advantage of the poor takedown defense and getups of Rodriguez, which should eventually lead to Robertson landing and securing a submission victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.

underdog pick at +260, possible third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Marina Rodriguez pulling off the upset here as a plus 260 underdog."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 2, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson because she has been getting better and is more comfortable, while Rodriguez seems aimless and has lost a step. He notes that Robertson's wrestling flows well into her grappling when she is not scared off, and that Rodriguez is a career-long slow starter who gives up takedowns. He also points out that Rodriguez's confidence is shaken, and without it her technical deficiencies are laid bare.

"I just think that Robertson has really demonstrated, like, again, she knows what she needs to do to win fights, and she will go out there and even take some damage if she needs to, just to tie up."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 89 of 180 49% 124 of 220 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Marina Rodriguez 0 82 of 228 35% 94 of 241 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 23 60% 49 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Marina Rodriguez 0 16 of 36 44% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 42 of 86 48% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Marina Rodriguez 0 35 of 107 32% 35 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Marina Rodriguez 0 31 of 85 36% 32 of 86 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 89 of 180 49% 35 of 110 14 of 18 40 of 52 79 of 165 7 of 11 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 82 of 228 35% 70 of 207 9 of 17 3 of 4 77 of 220 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 14 of 23 60% 2 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 14 11 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 16 of 36 44% 9 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jéssica Andrade 42 of 86 48% 21 of 59 8 of 11 13 of 16 35 of 75 7 of 11 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 35 of 107 32% 34 of 104 1 of 3 0 of 0 33 of 104 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jéssica Andrade 33 of 71 46% 12 of 44 5 of 5 16 of 22 33 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 31 of 85 36% 27 of 75 4 of 9 0 of 1 28 of 81 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.

"I am going to go Marina Rodriguez here she's just the better fighter and she's going to keep Jessica at the end of her strikes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.

"Marina seems like the best women's fighter on the card in terms of springing the upset by just catching a draw with that counter right hand so I'm going to go with Reena Rodriguez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I actually, I actually feel reasonably confident in Rodriguez here. I mean, I think Jessica looked against all odds and expectations. She looked like she recaptured her confidence against Mackenzie Dern."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.

"I got Andrade"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.

"whoever wins between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez are either going to fight for the title next or more than likely be in a number one contenders spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.

decision
"I think we see Andra win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.

"I wanted to disagree with you but I'm going to side with you cuz all I do is pick woman's under dos one of them's going to hit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.

"I'm going with Marina Rodriguez by TKO because there is no way in hell I'm picking a girl to win a fight that just made me believe that Erin blanchfield has ever thrown a punch before in her life."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to go with you and pick, uh, pick Rodriguez here. I just, I do think that without the clinch to fall into, it's a really bad matchup for András."
TKO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 70 of 102 68% 90 of 130 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 32 40% 16 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 51 of 75 68% 67 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 70 of 102 68% 47 of 70 22 of 30 1 of 2 12 of 23 53 of 73 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 32 40% 7 of 23 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 17 7 of 9 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 51 of 75 68% 38 of 56 13 of 19 0 of 0 6 of 13 45 of 62 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 20 50% 5 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 6 of 7 2 of 6
2 Marina Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 9 of 14 9 of 11 1 of 2 6 of 10 8 of 11 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, potentially plus 3.5 on Michelle
"I trust Marina just to smidge more in this matchup to push the action keep her boxing in Michelle's face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.

"give me a give me Rodriguez here to win this fight and win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.

"I'm sure I'm using too many words on this fight at this point so let's just go ahead and call it a marina Rodriguez by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.

considers laying -300 straight; mentions -3.5 point spread as an option
"I think Marina Rodriguez is going to double her up on strikes for at least two of the rounds and hold on for deer life in that one round that she does get taken down I think she covers this …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.

under 2.5 rounds +260 considered; Rodriguez KO considered
"Marina Rodriguez gonna beat her up... she's a clear favorite in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.

"give me Rodriguez and I think she wins this fight by decision and a minus 300 but the line makes sense"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.

Over 70.5 significant strikes for Rodriguez on PrizePicks.
"I like Rodriguez but you know me I'm never getting to a minus 300. the CF dog just tells me to pass... I'll take a little sprinkle on some of my prize picks entries on Rodriguez over uh 70.5 significant …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.

"Rodriguez here... Marina Rodriguez is going to win she lost to Amanda Lemos by early stoppage it was an early stoppage 100..."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 33 of 62 53% 115 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 27 of 43 62% 91 of 116 3 of 7 42% 0 1 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:36
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 16 68% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:06
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 21 of 42 50% 70 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 12 of 20 60% 26 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 33 of 62 53% 27 of 52 5 of 8 1 of 2 10 of 37 3 of 3 20 of 22
Marina Rodriguez 27 of 43 62% 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 22 5 of 5 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 6
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 8
3 Virna Jandiroba 21 of 42 50% 19 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 11 of 13
Marina Rodriguez 12 of 20 60% 10 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.

do not bet on this fight - feels like a trap
"Marina's gonna be the pick but for just absolute shit's sake do not bet on this fight this feels like a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.

Second round submission prediction
"I'm actually going to go with we're going to generobo to win this fight by submission I think she's going to get a ton of opportunities here to get that submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.

"I would take the plus money shot here on gender Robo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116.
"I think I have to agree with that with not a whole lot to add."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.

"I'm hoping from the improvements that we've been seeing from Rodriguez over our last several fights she'll be able to keep this fight upright land the more significant strikes and get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.

"I took a stale plus 140 the market moved a little bit but I still think I like plus 125s"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.

decision win
"I'm gonna side with Marina Rodriguez here ... bouncing back with a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116; odds tightening but Zane thinks it's not deserved.
"I just don't trust Jandiroba to get into the kind of insane exchanges that Rodriguez creates one way or the other."
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 72 of 200 36% 79 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Yan Xiaonan 0 56 of 132 42% 66 of 143 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 18 of 48 37% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 24 of 54 44% 25 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 45 31% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 34 41% 22 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:29
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 107 37% 41 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Yan Xiaonan 0 18 of 44 40% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 72 of 200 36% 46 of 166 18 of 19 8 of 15 59 of 182 13 of 18 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 56 of 132 42% 37 of 105 7 of 9 12 of 18 48 of 121 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 18 of 48 37% 9 of 35 4 of 5 5 of 8 16 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 24 of 54 44% 18 of 42 2 of 4 4 of 8 21 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 14 of 45 31% 9 of 38 4 of 4 1 of 3 9 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 34 41% 7 of 26 4 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 40 of 107 37% 28 of 93 10 of 10 2 of 4 34 of 99 6 of 8 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 18 of 44 40% 12 of 37 1 of 1 5 of 6 16 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.

plus 3.5 round bet on Yan Xiaonan
"marina is the pick here because we've only seen yon execute wrestling a wrestle heavy game plan one time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.

Rodriguez by decision
"i'm gonna take marina rodriguez to win i'm gonna take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.

"i got marina rodriguez i think she's the rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.

plus 250 odds
"i'm going with the ann zhaonan to edge out this decision so let's catch this plus 250"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.

Yan via decision
"this is a coin flip of a fight maybe even again 55 percent uh marina rodriguez at best but i think it's a 50 50 fight and at these odds the clear pick has got to be yan zhaonen"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.

"i think it is mourinho rodriguez for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.

"i'm going with marina rodriguez by decision 30 27 she pieces apart yan zhaonan in a competitive fight for three rounds"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 49 of 174 28% 80 of 209 1 of 8 12% 1 1 7:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 144 of 279 51% 148 of 284 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Mackenzie Dern 0 24 of 49 48% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 22 45% 33 of 48 0 of 1 0% 1 1 4:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 1 of 6 16% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 35 22% 8 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Mackenzie Dern 0 45 of 91 49% 47 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Marina Rodriguez 0 15 of 54 27% 21 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 65 56% 37 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:41
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 68 54% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 49 of 174 28% 41 of 158 4 of 10 4 of 6 36 of 155 1 of 3 12 of 16
Mackenzie Dern 144 of 279 51% 72 of 186 39 of 58 33 of 35 124 of 257 20 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 5 of 17 29% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 24 of 49 48% 9 of 31 10 of 12 5 of 6 19 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 10 of 22 45% 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 9 of 13
Mackenzie Dern 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 8 of 35 22% 7 of 31 0 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 45 of 91 49% 28 of 66 8 of 15 9 of 10 37 of 82 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Marina Rodriguez 15 of 54 27% 12 of 50 1 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 65 56% 14 of 36 13 of 19 10 of 10 34 of 61 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Marina Rodriguez 11 of 46 23% 8 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 68 54% 21 of 49 8 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 64 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.

Marina Rodriguez money line at +145 (1 unit)
"I'm picking Marina Rodriguez. I have a money line on her at plus 145."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.

win by submission
"i will pick mackenzie during for the win and i'll take her to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.

live betting Dern after early rounds; third or fourth round submission or decision
"i'll go with dern because i think eventually this fight is going to hit the ground and that'll be her moment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.

submission finish
"ultimately i do see mckenzie during getting this fight to the mat and finishing via submission so i'm gonna go with mckenzie dern to submit marina rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.

Mackenzie Dern by submission at +150 (FanDuel); 20 units on Dern money line
"Mackenzie Dern lock of the week for like four or five in a row, I think. I won the 10 units last week. I'm going 20 units on Dern. Let's go after it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.

Dern by submission +150; fight doesn't go to decision -210; Dern by TKO +1400 (mentioned as possible but less likely)
"I gotta go with the grappler in this fight... I'm going to go mackenzie dern via second round submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.

"i'm leaning towards dern right now but i want to hear your take"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.

Rodriguez by unanimous decision; recommends betting on Rodriguez as underdog
"i'm actually going to go with marina rodriguez here as an underdog... i think she's much better than mackenzie durn... if i was you guys i'd get some money on her right now before the odds change"
Jessica Aguilar - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–26, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Mar 30, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 1 118 of 202 58% 129 of 213 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:02
Jessica Aguilar 0 50 of 114 43% 63 of 127 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 1 20 of 28 71% 30 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:30
Jessica Aguilar 0 14 of 24 58% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:28
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 50 of 93 53% 51 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Jessica Aguilar 0 13 of 34 38% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 48 of 81 59% 48 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Jessica Aguilar 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 118 of 202 58% 58 of 123 38 of 53 22 of 26 67 of 143 39 of 47 12 of 12
Jessica Aguilar 50 of 114 43% 23 of 76 27 of 38 0 of 0 22 of 75 27 of 38 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 20 of 28 71% 16 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 4 12 of 12
Jessica Aguilar 14 of 24 58% 3 of 13 11 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 8 12 of 15 1 of 1
2 Marina Rodriguez 50 of 93 53% 25 of 60 21 of 29 4 of 4 23 of 61 27 of 32 0 of 0
Jessica Aguilar 13 of 34 38% 5 of 19 8 of 15 0 of 0 6 of 22 7 of 12 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 48 of 81 59% 17 of 40 15 of 21 16 of 20 39 of 70 9 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Aguilar 23 of 56 41% 15 of 44 8 of 12 0 of 0 15 of 45 8 of 11 0 of 0
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Submission (armbar) R1 3:41 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 45 of 58 77% 63 of 79 1 of 3 33% 2 0 2:31
Jessica Aguilar 0 9 of 12 75% 11 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 45 of 58 77% 63 of 79 1 of 3 33% 2 0 2:31
Jessica Aguilar 0 9 of 12 75% 11 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 45 of 58 77% 36 of 48 7 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 3 39 of 46
Jessica Aguilar 9 of 12 75% 0 of 2 8 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 2 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 45 of 58 77% 36 of 48 7 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 3 39 of 46
Jessica Aguilar 9 of 12 75% 0 of 2 8 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 2 9 of 10 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Jul 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Aguilar 0 128 of 199 64% 138 of 209 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:34
Jodie Esquibel 0 81 of 190 42% 81 of 190 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Aguilar 0 34 of 44 77% 40 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Jodie Esquibel 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
2 Jessica Aguilar 0 37 of 68 54% 39 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jodie Esquibel 0 29 of 69 42% 29 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Jessica Aguilar 0 57 of 87 65% 59 of 89 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Jodie Esquibel 0 38 of 78 48% 38 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Aguilar 128 of 199 64% 83 of 150 32 of 36 13 of 13 85 of 151 43 of 48 0 of 0
Jodie Esquibel 81 of 190 42% 54 of 152 27 of 38 0 of 0 73 of 178 8 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Aguilar 34 of 44 77% 13 of 21 15 of 17 6 of 6 14 of 23 20 of 21 0 of 0
Jodie Esquibel 14 of 43 32% 9 of 33 5 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jessica Aguilar 37 of 68 54% 28 of 57 9 of 11 0 of 0 29 of 59 8 of 9 0 of 0
Jodie Esquibel 29 of 69 42% 18 of 55 11 of 14 0 of 0 28 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jessica Aguilar 57 of 87 65% 42 of 72 8 of 8 7 of 7 42 of 69 15 of 18 0 of 0
Jodie Esquibel 38 of 78 48% 27 of 64 11 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 72 4 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Cortney Casey
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 211: Miocic vs. dos Santos 2 · May 13, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 57 of 106 53% 102 of 154 4 of 5 80% 0 0 6:28
Jessica Aguilar 0 103 of 294 35% 172 of 368 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 21 of 39 53% 33 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Jessica Aguilar 0 35 of 92 38% 62 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Cortney Casey 0 16 of 30 53% 36 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:21
Jessica Aguilar 0 37 of 86 43% 59 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Cortney Casey 0 20 of 37 54% 33 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Jessica Aguilar 0 31 of 116 26% 51 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 57 of 106 53% 27 of 70 10 of 15 20 of 21 24 of 53 10 of 18 23 of 35
Jessica Aguilar 103 of 294 35% 70 of 252 9 of 14 24 of 28 50 of 209 21 of 36 32 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 21 of 39 53% 10 of 26 3 of 4 8 of 9 8 of 16 2 of 3 11 of 20
Jessica Aguilar 35 of 92 38% 25 of 82 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 69 9 of 13 8 of 10
2 Cortney Casey 16 of 30 53% 6 of 17 3 of 6 7 of 7 4 of 12 1 of 4 11 of 14
Jessica Aguilar 37 of 86 43% 19 of 63 3 of 4 15 of 19 12 of 44 1 of 3 24 of 39
3 Cortney Casey 20 of 37 54% 11 of 27 4 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 7 of 11 1 of 1
Jessica Aguilar 31 of 116 26% 26 of 107 4 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 96 11 of 20 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia · Aug 01, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cláudia Gadelha 0 111 of 248 44% 121 of 263 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:36
Jessica Aguilar 0 70 of 189 37% 88 of 210 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cláudia Gadelha 0 37 of 95 38% 40 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Jessica Aguilar 0 19 of 60 31% 26 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cláudia Gadelha 0 37 of 77 48% 38 of 78 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:12
Jessica Aguilar 0 23 of 65 35% 34 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Cláudia Gadelha 0 37 of 76 48% 43 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Jessica Aguilar 0 28 of 64 43% 28 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cláudia Gadelha 111 of 248 44% 95 of 229 16 of 19 0 of 0 101 of 233 9 of 14 1 of 1
Jessica Aguilar 70 of 189 37% 35 of 152 11 of 13 24 of 24 63 of 180 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cláudia Gadelha 37 of 95 38% 34 of 90 3 of 5 0 of 0 35 of 89 1 of 5 1 of 1
Jessica Aguilar 19 of 60 31% 8 of 49 6 of 6 5 of 5 18 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cláudia Gadelha 37 of 77 48% 28 of 67 9 of 10 0 of 0 32 of 71 5 of 6 0 of 0
Jessica Aguilar 23 of 65 35% 14 of 55 4 of 5 5 of 5 20 of 60 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Cláudia Gadelha 37 of 76 48% 33 of 72 4 of 4 0 of 0 34 of 73 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jessica Aguilar 28 of 64 43% 13 of 48 1 of 2 14 of 14 25 of 61 3 of 3 0 of 0