Career Averages - Paul Craig
Career Averages - Kennedy Nzechukwu
Paul Craig - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)
Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot is now occupied by a light heavyweight car crash in the form of Lithuania’s Bukauskas (18-6, 5-4 UFC) against “Bearjew” Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC; 9-9-1, 1 NC UFC). While Bukauskas celebrates a stoppage rate over 70%, Craig has still never needed the judges to get his hand raised after all these years. Referee Marc Goddard will keep things on the up-and-up here, and he stands back as the athletes come towards one another without touching gloves.
Bukauskas is able to get his hands on Craig early, scoring at the end of a left hand. Craig bounces off the fencing, and Bukauskas smacks him with a low kick. Craig whiffs on a high kick, and his calf is struck once more in response. Bukauskas charges with a flurry of punches and results in a clinch, which is where Craig would prefer to be. Bukauskas lands a few short clinch strikes, and he backs off and avoids a looping hook in time. Bukauskas goes back to his calf kick, with the two trading this particular blow until Craig spins at him with a back kick. Bukauskas skips forward to ding Craig with an overhand right, and he is driven back from a spinning kick to the ribs.
They land leg kicks on one another, and Bukauskas blocks a kick in time and is reminded of a past loss to Khalil Rountree when Craig stomps at his knee. Craig gets hold of Bukauskas and pushes him from one side of the Octagon to the other. Craig looks to trip Bukauskas up, and he tries to muscle his man down but Bukauskas is able to keep upright. Craig laces his leg between his foe’s, and he abandons the effort to knee the body a few times. Bukauskas turns him about and plants knees on his torso. Craig jumps guard, and he slides off Bukauskas and hits the ground. Bukauskas lets him hit the floor so he can rain down punches, and he elects to get into Craig’s guard. Bukauskas drums his opponent’s head off the canvas with his devastating ground-and-pound.
Craig turns to defend the strikes, and Bukauskas postures up and demolishes him with one of the most destructive elbows one could ever see or hear. The horn sounds, and Craig lifelessly slumps to his side. Goddard recognizes that Craig is out cold and waves the fight off as five minutes had elapsed.
Luckily for “Bearjew,” he is able to come to shortly thereafter, and he congratulates Bukauskas for sending him astral traveling. While Bukauskas celebrates his handiwork and calls for a top-15 opponent, Craig removes his gloves to signal his retirement, thanking everyone for the memories while noting that the young eat the old in this sport.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Paul Craig R1 5:00 via KO (Elbow)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.
Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.
The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.
Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-375), Craig (+295)
Round 1
What was previously booked a few weeks ago fell apart due to a sudden outbreak of cold sores for the favored man. The UFC puts it back together, knowing that if light heavyweight co-headliner goes all 15 minutes, something may have gone horribly wrong between these two ludicrously aggressive fighters. In their combined 29 wins, they have just one decision between them. Craig (17-9-1, 9-9-1 UFC) still celebrates his gaudy 100% finish rate, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1-0-1 UFC) went the distance for the LFA title that springboarded him to DWCS. Referee Kevin MacDonald dons his proverbial hard hat for this explosive contest, and the fighters decide to bump their large fists together before going for broke. Bellato resides in the center of the age, pump-faking and feinting but not throwing anything. Instead, Craig lands first, in the form of a hefty body kick. Bellato swings and misses with huge hooks that might have dome some serious damage, and he is not messing around early. Bellato chips at the lead leg and jabs the midsection, getting met with a body kick on the way out. Bellato’s leg kick finds its home again, and his right hand is wound up ready to strike. Instead, the Brazilian clinches, and he bounces out and rocks Craig with a right hand. Craig responds with a spinning back kick to the breadbasket, and he takes some of the sting off a front kick aimed at his chest. Craig spins with another back kick that lands flush, and he jabs and shoots for a takedown that does not come. Bellato stays focused on welting up the Scot’s front leg, and he ignores a left hand so he can prepare for a takedown that comes. Bellato stuffs it and wings a right hand, and the looping hook buzzes past Craig’s beard. Bellato takes two more body kicks, nods and stalks “Bearjew” down. Craig rips another kick to the ribs, and he spins with a back kick and drops down for a single. Bellato frames off and keeps his balance, forcing Craig to sell out and drop down for it while pushing the heavy betting favorite against the wall. Craig trips Bellato up, and as if he had springs in his shorts, Bellato bounces off the mat to get back to his feet. Craig ducks a huge punch and goes after a takedown, but Bellato bowls him over and lands heavily in half guard. Bellato flirts with an arm-triangle setup, retaining heavy chest pressure to not allow Craig to do something off his back. Bellato postures up and stands up with 10 seconds to go, smacking Craig with a low kick and diving down.
Craig pushes off of him and belts Bellato with a brutal upkick while Bellato’s right knee is down. The stunner of an upkick knocks Bellato clean out, who collapses to his back. After a few seconds he snaps back to consciousness and looks terrified, eyes wide as dinner plates, and he scurries towards the wall to defend himself from an unknown threat.
Still not knowing where he is, Bellato seats himself against the fence, and when MacDonald approaches him, Bellato tries to grapple him and even attempts a leglock. MacDonald calmly, professionally informs Bellato that he got knocked out, and calls for a replay to determine the legality of the blow. It is clear the fight is over and that Bellato will not be able to continue, so the only question is whether MacDonald will declare this fight result a disqualification or a no contest. Meanwhile, virtual judge Devin Tejada specifically requested that his round score of a 10-6 in favor of Craig be declared here even though the round did not end. This is a rough situation, one that merits this match be booked one more time in a few months.
The Official Result
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a No Contest (Illegal Upkick) R1 4:59
Angelo picks Bellato because Paul Craig is not very good and has no evolution in his game. He notes that Bellato should win by keeping his elbows in on the ground and bombing away on the feet. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but Bellato should avoid getting submitted.
Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout. He notes that Paul Craig is near retirement and has struggled at middleweight. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but believes Bellato can keep the fight standing and knock him out, as long as he treats the ground like lava.
Connor sees Bellato as a steady, consistent puncher who doesn't break down easily. He expects Bellato to slowly steamroll Paul Craig, who is older and has not improved. Connor predicts a second-round TKO, noting Bellato's ability to maintain pressure and recover from damage.
Bellato will keep the fight upright and use his striking to damage Craig, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds. He is not expected to attempt a submission.
The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, despite being a former Paul Craig supporter. He doubts Craig's chin and offensive intent, noting Craig struggled against Bo Nickal. He highlights Bellato's training with Luke Rockhold for grappling and expects a first-round TKO, as Bellato should be safe on the feet if he doesn't shoot into Craig's guard.
Zane agrees with Connor that Bellato is the clear favorite. He notes that Bellato is a capable round-to-round puncher who doesn't wear out easily, and that Paul Craig has not improved despite changing weight classes. Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure will be too much for Craig.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout, stating that Paul Craig's wrestling is too poor to get the fight to the ground where he is dangerous, and his chin is too weak to stay in the pocket. He notes that Bellato is a heavy-handed grappler who will come forward and bomb away. Angelo also mentions that Bellato is incredibly handsome, adding a humorous note.
Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato, noting he is a black belt and the better striker with good power. He acknowledges Paul Craig's comeback ability but thinks Bellato's takedown defense and striking advantage lead to a second-round knockout.
The host is surprised Bellato is such a big favorite, noting he is not super technical and Craig could pull off a submission. However, he leans with Bellato due to better hardware, good durability, and great cardio, expecting him to outdamage Craig and find a finish in the second or third round. He would not pay minus 500 on a fighter like this.
The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him strong and durable with nice hands. He notes Bellato has been working with Luke Rockhold on grappling. He criticizes Paul Craig's game as limited (bad double leg, body kick, imanari roll) and thinks Craig has had his day. He predicts Bellato by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 54 of 85 | 63% | 54 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 47 of 129 | 36% | 48 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 22 of 26 | 84% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 54 of 85 | 63% | 24 of 50 | 13 of 16 | 17 of 19 | 54 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 47 of 129 | 36% | 21 of 93 | 14 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 47 of 129 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 22 of 26 | 84% | 10 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 21 of 48 | 43% | 11 of 33 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 16 of 28 | 57% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 13 of 46 | 28% | 6 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)
Round 1
A pair of middleweights with 100% finish rates throw down in a clash that could find the winner with a number next to their name come Tuesday. Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) has not encountered much opposition in the cage thus far as a pro, while Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC) cannot say the same. Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the Octagon for this one. There is no touch of gloves. Nickal starts out the initial aggressor, faking takedowns and tossing out a front kick. Nickal comes up short on a reaching left hand, and he changes stances to find another look. Craig absorbs a heavy calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to block a huge swinging left hand. Nickal chops at the front leg two more times as Craig walks him down, and Craig lets loose a body kick. Nickal absorbs a knee on the chin and a left hand, and a hard Craig leg kick makes Nickal take a funny step. Both men unload with power punches at the same time and glance off one another, and Nickal chambers and fires a huge right hand that misses. Craig checks a kick and fires off one that ricochets off the raised guard, and he has a second also blocked. Craig raises his leg as a body shield, and Nickal is unable to get his hands on him. Nickal reaches out with a side kick and a left hand, and Craig kicks him twice in response. Nickal wings another left hand, reaching out far and landing with a glancing blow. Craig checks a kick and slides back to not let Nickal get to him. Craig spins with a fake kick, and he slides back as Nickal aims a body shot. Craig pump-fakes several kicks until letting one loose, and Nickal doubles up on the left hook. Craig jabs his way in, and he starts talking to the unbeaten fighter. Nickal has one kick checked, and the second is not. Craig throws a kick that grazes the shoulder, and he rolls with a right hand that buzzes his hair. Nickal absorbs a right hand on the chin, which holds up well as he backpedals. Craig gets drilled with a left hook, and Nickal pitches another fastball that gives Craig brief pause. Craig again brings up a knee to intercept Nickal, and he chops at the front leg of his foe. Craig kicks his foe in the gloves, and the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Round 2
Between rounds, Craig tells his corner how much fun he is having in the cage, grinning from ear to ear. The two start off the round again, with Craig jabbing his way forward into a head kick that comes up short. Craig kicks with his other leg, and he almost falls over but manages to keep his balance. Nickal has a huge right hand come over the top, and he has a kick caught. Craig chatters to his adversary, and Nickal does not change his expression. Nickal scores at the end of a left hand, and Craig responds with a right hand and keeps on talking. Craig swats away Nickal’s outstretched hand, whipping a kick to the guard. Nickal aims a body shot and goes over the top with a left hand, and Craig’s eyes open up a bit wider. Craig blocks a body kick with his knee, and Nickal jabs him in the chest and blasts him with an overhand right. Craig swarms forward with two punches and a high front kick, and he flicks out a jab. Nickal scores a body shot, and he cannot quite block the body kick that comes back his direction. Craig just misses with an uppercut as Nickal ducks down, and he takes a left hand on the chin. Craig lets fly two kicks and eats a body shot on the way back, with Nickal swinging hard with his left hand. The Scot checks a kick and talks to his opponent, and after they shadowbox, he lets fly one more body kick. Nickal winds up with a left hand and thumps his man in the chin, and Craig’s responsive elbow misses by a tiny margin. Craig sticks out a left and then a right, and he launches a body kick that hammers into the wrestler’s arms. Nickal splits the guard with a left and is disciplined enough to block the body kick he knows his coming at him, and he shells up to defend against a second. Nickal steps in with a right hand and catches Craig with a second, and the two both smack one another before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 3
The fighters meet in the middle to start the final frame, and Craig is the one marching forward first. After about 20 seconds, Craig tosses a half-hearted low kick, and Nickal counters him with a heavy right hand over the guard. Craig uses a side kick to push off, and he blocks a body kick. Nickal considers a takedown but abandons it, and he steps back as Craig’s leg whizzes past him. Nickal stands still and lets Craig walk around him, and he laughs and claps hands with his confused foe. Craig kicks the front leg twice, and he aims his shin at the chest after Nickal changes stances. Craig rifles a right hand down the pipe, and Nickal kicks him in the lead leg to respond. Nickal fakes a level change, and the audience showers the fighters with boos for their sparring match. Craig lets loose a high kick, and Nickal thanks him by clapping him on the side of the head with a right hook. Nickal skirts away, blocking a head kick and clipping Craig with a huge left hand. Craig grabs his eye, which starts swelling immediately and he backs up to the cage wall. Nickal corners him but picks his shots very carefully, and he does not engage with more than a right hook. Nickal springs away from a high kick and wings a left hand on the damaged eye, further hurting the Scot. Nickal kicks the front leg and dances away from danger, zipping in and out without much concern of reprisal. Craig jabs a few times, whiffs on a head kick and a front kick. Nickal rips a left to the body, and Craig starts pointing at him as the fans chant “overrated” at Nickal. Craig checks a kick, and Nickal draws his foot back uncomfortably. With seconds to spare, the Penn State wrestler sells out with haymakers, dinging Craig again and eating one in response. The disappointment of a fight comes to an end, and Nickal mimes swinging a golf club and goes over to talk to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been in the building since the end of the prelims.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (30-27 Nickal)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Bo Nickal, calling it a clear win. He notes Nickal's elite wrestling and that Paul Craig is dangerous on the ground but Nickal can grapple with anyone. He speculates Nickal might test his striking since Craig is not dangerous on the feet. He is unsure about betting due to uncertainty over method of victory.
Big Brady picks Bo Nickal by first-round knockout, agreeing with Paul Craig that Nickal should keep the fight standing. He notes that Craig is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, while Nickal has quick hands and power. He believes Nickal will follow Kyle Daukaus' blueprint and knock out Craig early. He also likes the under on 1.5 takedowns for Nickal on PrizePicks.
Cody picks Bo Nickal by submission, citing Nickal's elite wrestling and positional dominance. He notes Paul Craig is a one-trick pony with a suspect chin and weak wrestling, and that Nickal can take the fight wherever he wants. Cody expects Nickal to submit Craig, possibly with a rear-naked choke.
Connor also picks Nickal but is hesitant, acknowledging that Craig's submission game is dangerous. He thinks Nickal's wrestling and athleticism will allow him to scramble and wear Craig out, but Craig could catch him in a submission if Nickal gets too aggressive. Connor is interested in the fight as a test for Nickal.
Vreeland picks Craig as a big underdog because he sees value in Craig's submission threat. He notes Craig subbed Magomed Ankalaev and that Bo Nickal is still inexperienced in Jiu-Jitsu. Vreeland thinks Craig can catch a guillotine on one of Nickal's takedowns or take his back. He also points out that Nickal took over 8 minutes to finish Cody Brundage, suggesting he is not invincible.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, acknowledging Paul Craig's impressive submission wins but believing Nickal's wrestling credentials and grappling ability will neutralize Craig's game. He thinks Nickal can keep the fight standing or on the ground and avoid Craig's submissions. He calls it a 'boring' pick but sees Nickal as the clear favorite.
Fox picks Nickal, citing his athleticism, youth, and wrestling as a cheat code. He believes Craig has no chance against a wrestler of Nickal's caliber. Fox acknowledges the line is steep but is confident Nickal will win.
Lucrative James confidently picks Bo Nickal, the massive -1000 favorite. He believes Nickal's wrestling can dictate where the fight goes, and even if he shoots takedowns into Craig's guard, he can dominate from top position. He thinks Nickal is smart enough to keep it standing and knock Craig out, or slam him and finish on the ground. He notes Craig's dangerous submissions but feels Nickal will stay safe and win inside the distance, likely in round one.
The host expects Nickal to utilize his striking more effectively, looking for a knockout rather than going into Craig's dangerous guard. However, he notes the plus 200 submission prop on Nickal is worth considering. He officially picks Nickal by knockout.
Paul picks Bo Nickal by knockout, arguing Craig is chinny and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. He expects Nickal to take Craig down, soften him with ground and pound, and eventually knock him out as Craig tires. Paul likes the under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal, expecting a first-round KO. He acknowledges Paul Craig's submission threat but believes Nickal's wrestling and striking will overwhelm Craig. He notes Nickal's early finishes and thinks Craig's limited striking will be exposed.
Zane picks Nickal but is not confident, noting that Nickal is raw and was coached through basic grappling in his last fight. He thinks Nickal's athleticism and scrambling ability will wear out Craig, but Craig's submission threat is real. Zane finds the fight interesting because it's a genuine test for Nickal.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 36 of 50 | 72% | 43 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 22 of 48 | 45% | 4 of 19 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 36 of 50 | 72% | 29 of 41 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 15 of 29 | 51% | 3 of 9 | 8 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 20 of 30 | 66% | 14 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Borralho, calling Paul Craig overrated and noting he can be finished. He expects Borralho to dominate and possibly finish Craig. He suggests waiting for prop bets.
Big Brady sees Borralho as the much better striker and believes he will knock out Craig. He notes Craig's poor chin and recent damage taken. He predicts Borralho will take his time and finish Craig in the second round.
Cody picks Borralho, citing his superior wrestling, cardio, and durability. He notes Craig relies on submission magic but is poor defensively and has been neutralized by good grapplers. Cody expects Borralho to control the fight and win by decision or TKO.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Caio Borralho. He emphasizes that Borralho is a great striker, noting his Contender Series wins over Aaron Jeffery and Jesse Murray were striking performances. Vreeland thinks people forget Borralho's striking because he is Brazilian and assumed to be a jiu-jitsu specialist. He believes Borralho can finish Paul Craig on the feet or on the ground, as Craig is a BJJ specialist but Borralho has the skills to avoid submissions and wear him down. Vreeland also mentions Craig's cardio concerns at middleweight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Borralho by decision, citing his superior jiu-jitsu (Damaian Maya black belt) and well-rounded game. He notes that Craig's only path is submission, but Borralho's grappling defense should neutralize that. He highlights Borralho's decision-heavy record and suggests the decision prop at +200 as a better value than the -600 moneyline.
Jeff Fox picks Caio Borralho despite the steep -550 line. He notes that Borralho has the striking ability to keep the fight standing and potentially knock out Paul Craig, as Borralho stated in an interview. Fox also believes Borralho can replicate what Brendan Allen did on the ground, as he has the pressure and submission defense to avoid Craig's submissions early and wear him down. He questions Craig's cardio at middleweight, noting he appeared to quit in the Allen fight. Fox also highlights Borralho's underrated striking, pointing to his Contender Series performances where he beat Aaron Jeffery on the feet and knocked out Jesse Murray.
Borralho is superior everywhere and is one of the hottest Brazilian prospects. He will use grappling defensively early, chip away at Craig, and possibly find a knockout. If Craig slows down, Borralho will take him down and smash from top position. Borralho finishes within two or three rounds.
Paul picks Borralho, emphasizing his superior grappling, wrestling, and durability. He believes Craig's only path is a submission, but Borralho's BJJ black belt and top control will neutralize that. Paul expects Borralho to stuff takedowns and ground-and-pound.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho, predicting a first-round knockout via a stiff jab. He believes Borralho is a well-rounded, big middleweight with enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing, where Craig is less dangerous. He notes Borralho's recent wins over Abus Magomedov and Maxime Gremont, and expects him to chin Craig early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 32 of 43 | 74% | 52 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 7:58 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 20 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 28 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 32 of 43 | 74% | 26 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 24 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 14 of 19 | 73% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Paul Craig | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 16 |
| Paul Craig | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-410), Craig (+320)
Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. Five rounds or less will decide a much-needed contender in the wide-open middleweight division. Two exceptionally talented and dangerous grapplers will ply their trade against one another, and referee Mark Smith will almost certainly get involved before it is said and done. Allen (22-5, 10-2 UFC) is aiming to add to his five-fight win streak, while Craig (17-6-1, 9-6-1 UFC) introduced himself to his lighter weight category by wrecking Andre Muniz in July. Before they inflict all sorts of violence on one another, they come together and stare down, but Craig does not want to touch gloves. They begin, and Craig leads with a low kick. Allen comes back with two punches, and he lands his own leg kick. Allen swings with everything he has, and he nearly topples over when missing. The two trade jabs, and Allen digs one to the breadbasket. They crash together, and Craig looks for a possible level change only to be met with a knee. Craig presses his man to the wall, and he drops down for a possible takedown. Allen stands him up before anything comes of it, but Craig is pressing him tightly against the wire. Allen knees the body and throws Craig over his hips, where he lands in full mount. Craig turns to his side, and Allen hammers him with a few punches and an elbow. Allen gets pulled back to half guard, and he is warned for hooking his toes in the fence. Allen hunts for an arm-triangle choke with pure chest and shoulder pressure, and Craig pushes both of his hands on Allen’s face to stop it. Allen isolates an arm and sneaks around to get the rear-naked choke, but Craig defends brilliantly with a calf slicer. Allen wrenches his leg out and turns around, and he attacks Craig’s ankle to keep him honest. Craig stands back up, and Allen slams him right back down to the mat. Allen smashes down with an elbow, and he cuts Craig’s eyebrow. The horn sounds, and Allen mocks him as they stand up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 2
The middleweights meander towards one another to start off Round 2, and Allen sits down on a one-two that rocks Craig. Craig weebles and wobbles but does not fall down, and manages to catch Allen with his own right hook on the way. Craig shoots to save his chin, and Allen bowls him over and drives down an elbow. Allen frustrates his opponent with top control and sporadic elbows, and blood flows out of the corner of Craig’s eye. Allen looks for an arm-triangle choke and he steps into full mount, and Craig is in trouble but rolls to his side to break it up. “Bearjew” lands a few heel strikes to the thigh, and Allen answers him with elbows and a few smacking fists. Allen rails Craig with another elbow, and the cut on Craig’s eyebrow splits further. Craig maintains butterfly hooks, and Allen makes his life terrible with elbow after unanswered elbow. Craig throws his legs up to threaten with something, anything he can find, and Allen shucks them to the side and elbows Craig in the busted eye. Allen stacks his man up and gets illegally upkicked, and Smith warns Craig of the fouls. Allen hunts for another arm-triangle choke, and Craig is wise to it and defends before it comes together. Allen sneaks a guillotine under the chin when Craig sits up, and Craig keeps his back against the fence to stop his foe from getting the right leverage. Allen takes Craig’s back with seconds to go, and he looks for another rear-naked choke to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 3
The middleweights reach Round 3, and Allen starts off with his striking. Allen rips a left to the body and rings Craig’s bell with a left up top, and he jumps over Craig and snatches up a guillotine choke. Craig turns well enough to stop the choke from getting locked down, but he turns the wrong way.
Allen sees the opening and snatches it up in an instant, piggybacking Craig and wrapping up a rear-naked choke with practically zero setup. The RNC aficionado—Allen has won his last three fights with this submission—secures it under the chin and it is now a matter of time. The Scot thinks about going out on his shield, but he taps one time on the forearm to signal that he has been defeated.
Smith is right on top of the action and pulls them apart, and Allen confidently nods and calls for a big fight. On his post-fight interview, Allen asks for any top contender, no matter who they put in front of him, and he celebrates with his daughter in his arms. Allen asks her who won, and all smiles, she replies “Da da!” The UFC will be on break for a week, and fight fans in the U.S. will take the time off and celebrate Thanksgiving. When the UFC is back in December, we will be there, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Paul Craig R3 0:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is very confident in Brendan Allen, citing his five-fight win streak and well-rounded game. He notes Allen has better striking and wrestling than Paul Craig, and is putting everything together at the right time. He has bets on Allen and expects him to win.
Big Brady thinks the odds are silly because Paul Craig is always a live dog with his guard-pulling submissions. He questions Allen's fight IQ, expecting him to grapple despite the smarter path being striking. He picks Allen to win by submission, possibly a club and sub, but notes Craig is dangerous and can never be counted out. He says Allen has more ways to win but the fight could get tricky.
Cody picks Brendan Allen confidently, citing his significant advantages on the feet and well-rounded grappling. He notes that Paul Craig's only path is a submission via pulling guard, but Allen's top control and BJJ training make that unlikely. Cody mentions the line is wide but expects Allen to smash Craig, possibly by TKO. He acknowledges Craig's opportunistic submission game but sees Allen as too well-rounded.
Allen is the far superior striker with improved striking defense and a dangerous submission game. Craig has sketchy striking and relies on Jiu-Jitsu, but Allen can keep the fight standing and pick him apart. Allen will eventually find a TKO after posturing up with ground and pound, likely in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, fading Paul Craig as usual. He acknowledges Craig's magic touch and opportunistic submissions but notes that Craig's wins come against opponents with glaring weaknesses. Brendan Allen is young, well-rounded, and trains at a top gym. Paul highlights Allen's submission win over Andre Muniz and his ability to wrestle, grapple, and strike. He sees Craig's suspect gas tank as a liability in a five-round fight and expects Allen to win, likely by TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen to win by TKO at the end of round one after grappling exchanges. He believes Allen is a better jiu-jitsu player than Andre Muniz and has better takedown defense. He praises Allen's striking, including kicks and boxing, and notes his finishes over Bruno Silva and Krzysztof Jotko. He criticizes Paul Craig's standup and chin, and thinks Allen will land on him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 40 of 82 | 48% | 54 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:56 |
| André Muniz | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 31 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Muniz | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 44 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:56 |
| André Muniz | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 16 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 40 of 82 | 48% | 31 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 50 |
| André Muniz | 24 of 40 | 60% | 15 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 9 of 25 | 36% | 1 of 10 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Muniz | 13 of 23 | 56% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 31 of 57 | 54% | 30 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 50 |
| André Muniz | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 |
Angelo is split between gut and brain. His gut leans toward Paul Craig's toughness and power, but his brain says Muniz has better wrestling and control. He notes Muniz looked old in his last fight but still gives a slight lean to Muniz because he can control with wrestling. He disagrees with the 2-1 odds on Muniz.
Big Brady picks André Muniz to win by first-round submission. He notes Muniz is a much better grappler than Craig, who relies on triangles off his back. He thinks Muniz can take Craig down and submit him, or knock him out on the feet. He mentions Craig's move to middleweight may affect his chin. He is confident Muniz has multiple paths to victory.
Cody thinks Muniz is a terrible matchup for Craig, with superior BJJ and better striking. He questions Craig's weight cut to 185 and notes Craig's wins often come from being dominated then catching a submission. He expects Muniz to roll.
Daniel is uncertain about this fight but sides with Muniz due to his experience at middleweight and his high-level jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Paul Craig's dangerous guard and submission ability, noting Craig has submitted top light heavyweights. However, he is concerned about Craig dropping to 185 and thinks Muniz's grappling is a level above. He mentions that Muniz's last loss was due to fatigue, not skill, and that Craig's weight cut is a risk. He says he usually takes the dog when unsure but goes with the favorite here.
James picks Muniz to win by KO. He has a strong read on Muniz, having bet on him multiple times successfully. He believes Muniz is an elite jiu-jitsu player and that Craig won't be able to submit him. He thinks Muniz will crack Craig's chin, as Craig has a bad chin and Muniz hits hard. James notes that Muniz is dropping down in weight, which often doesn't go well, but he still expects a KO. He mentions that Muniz by KO is +350 on BetOnline and he hopes to find better odds elsewhere.
The host picks André Muniz, believing his BJJ black belt will keep him safe on the ground and that he is the better striker. He notes Craig's danger off his back but thinks Muniz can grind him out from top position. He predicts a decision win for Muniz.
Paul agrees, citing Muniz's superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Craig's striking volume is very low and his wrestling is poor. He thinks Muniz will take Craig down and control him, though he doesn't love it as a lock.
The MMA Guru picks André Muniz, arguing that Paul Craig's wins come from opponents taking him down, and Craig has poor stand-up. He believes Muniz will stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has a striking advantage. The Guru recalls Muniz wobbling Uriah Hall and predicts a KO win. He also notes Craig's chinny nature and lack of submission threats from top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Johnny Walker to knock out Paul Craig in the first round. He notes Walker is much bigger, more explosive, and has huge power on the feet. Craig's striking is not good and he will likely pull guard, but Walker should disengage and keep it standing. If Walker goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but Walker can also finish with ground and pound. He trusts Walker to get the knockout but warns of sweating if it hits the mat.
Cody picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ under John Kavanagh. He says Walker can dictate range, use footwork, and potshot Paul Craig. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous BJJ but thinks Walker will keep the fight standing and avoid the ground. He mentions Walker's power and ability to knock out Craig. He also notes Craig's poor striking and takedown defense.
Connor picks Paul Craig, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Walker's new passive style is worse than his old reckless one, and that Craig will pressure and likely land clean shots. Connor also mentions that Walker has never been submitted but that Craig is a submission specialist who could catch him.
Paul picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ. He says Walker can keep the fight standing and avoid Craig's BJJ. He mentions Craig's poor striking and takedown defense, and says Walker has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges Craig's submission wins over top guys but thinks Walker will fight smart and avoid the ground.
The Guru is confident Walker will KO Craig. He highlights Walker's underrated grappling, noting he reversed Krylov and has improved rapidly. Craig has no striking threat, so Walker will be confident on the feet. The Guru predicts Walker will rock Craig, force a bad takedown, and finish with ground and pound, similar to the Ryan Spann fight.
Zane picks Paul Craig, citing that Craig has a reliable bag of tricks and will be aggressive, while Johnny Walker has regressed under SPG coaching, becoming passive and lacking a functional style. Zane notes that grappling is light heavyweight secret sauce, and Craig is a submission artist who can exploit Walker's poor grappling.
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 24 of 48 | 50% | 58 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 47 of 66 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 6:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 | |
| 2 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 25 of 35 | 71% | 40 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | |
| 3 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 24 of 48 | 50% | 21 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 14 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 27 of 44 | 61% | 23 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 23 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 9 of 18 | 50% | 7 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 25 of 35 | 71% | 23 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 23 of 28 | |
| 3 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nzechukwu (-130); Almeida (+110)
Round 1
There is only one more heavyweight fight tonight, and it is as quintessential “striker vs. grappler” as it gets. Former light heavyweight power puncher Nzechukwu (14-6, 8-6 UFC) would like nothing more than to shut the lights out of ex-One Championship fighter Almeida (5-2, 0-0 UFC). Submission specialist “Buchecha” has recorded all of his wins in Round 1 while his two losses came on the scorecards, and he will hope he does not earn a third defeat tonight. The third man in the cage for this clash that could go anywhere will be referee Herb Dean. The big men bump fists.
Almeida strikes first with a body kick, and he uses it to close in on the Fortis MMA fighter to pursue a single. Nzechukwu sees it coming from a mile away and hops to the side to stop it. They feint and fake at one another, with Nzechukwu staying extremely low expecting another shot. It comes, and “Buchecha” wrangles Nzechukwu to his knees and slips around to briefly take his back standing. Nzechukwu rolls over the moment that Almeida drops down to pursue a leglock, and he gets his leg far enough out so that he is not in danger. While waiting for Almeida to knock it off, Nzechukwu hammers the back of his thigh with powerful elbows. Nzechukwu bursts back to his feet by rushing towards the wall and walking up it, and Almeida clings to him from behind for a possible mat return. Almeida transitions from a double to a single and gets it, stepping right into half guard. Nzechukwu scoots back upright again, only for Almeida to chuck him back to the mat like a side of beef.
This time, Almeida takes his back, and he hooks up a partial body triangle but lets it go to maintain control when Nzechukwu starts to scramble. Nzechukwu crawls to the fencing and back upright, and he keeps himself afloat while Almeida wrestles him from behind. With Nzechukwu’s back to the wall, Almeida leans on him until Nzechukwu turns him around. Nzechukwu plants a knee square on the groin, clacking off the cup with an audible popping sound as Dean instantly calls time. Almeida wanders to a neutral corner and drops to a crouch, grimacing as he massages his sore groin. He stands back up and drapes his arms over the cage to try to get his wind back. Jostling his cup around, he is good to go after about a minute. Dean tells Nzechukwu to keep it clean, and they get back to business. Nzechukwu drives home a right hand around the guard, backing Almeida up but getting his lead leg grabbed in the single attempt from “Buchecha.” Nzechukwu hops around and manages to get out of it, and Almeida sells out for a sacrifice throw and falls to his back. Nzechukwu drops down on top of his foe to land hammerfists until Almeida is about to scramble, so Nzechukwu abandons ship and stands back up. Nzechukwu times a crisp knee on the jaw, and he starts laying into Almeida with power punches. The Fortis MMA-trained athlete drops Almeida with his punch combination and opens a cut on the cheek, and as he is battering the former One athlete, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu
Round 2
The fighters clap hands, but as soon as they do, Nzechukwu grabs his opponent’s hand and jacks him in the jaw with his other. Almeida backs off, and he suddenly shoots in for a takedown. As he ducks in to change levels, Nzechukwu inadvertently pokes him in one if not both eyes. “Buchecha” falls over to his back, and the commentary booth quizzically wonders whether he injured himself during the shot. The replay shows Nzechukwu’s fingers jamming into both of his opponent’s eyes, and he needs the doctor to come in so he can wipe his eye out with a cloth. Almeida is clearly compromised from it and none too thrilled by the foul, and he blows his nose in frustration. While Almeida recovers, Dean sighs heavily and brings Nzechukwu to the center of the cage to deduct a point. After three minutes pass, the round resumes with less than 30 seconds gone on the timer. Nzechukwu reintroduces himself with a clubbing left hand on the temple, and he goes for another but misses the mark. When he tries a third, Almeida changes levels to shoot in on his hips. Nzechukwu backs off to lean on the fence to keep his balance, and Almeida circles around from behind to hold on and possibly wrest him to the mat. Almeida breaks off, gets off a right hand and then falls over lobbing a kick. Nzechukwu races after him and starts bombarding him when Almeida stands, and Almeida topples over to his back. Nzechukwu signals for him to get back up, so Almeida answers him and sprints forward to tackle Nzechukwu to the floor. During the ensuing scramble, “Buchecha” secures back control, and this time he hooks up a low body triangle.
Rather than attack from the back, Almeida attempts to slither over to get mount, all while searching for an arm-triangle setup. He manages to get into full mount and starts hammering his opponent with elbows and powerful punches. Nzechukwu shells up to defend his face, but “Buchecha” is slowly pummeling him. Almeida chooses his strikes carefully rather than blowing out his gas tank going for broke, but this means that Dean just watches on as Nzechukwu blocks the worst of the strikes. The impact is still noteworthy, and Almeida picks up on volume and intensity as he tries to drum Nzechukwu out of there. Before gassing himself, he transitions to an armbar with seconds left in the round. He falls to his back to lock the limb lock down, but time expires before he can land it completely.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Almeida
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Almeida
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Almeida
Round 3
To pick up where he left off, Almeida sells out almost immediately out of the gate for a takedown. He manages to get the fight down, but Nzechukwu is on top of him sitting on his chest. Almeida tries to get hold of Nzechukwu’s ankle for a possible sub, but there is nothing there while a 250-pound man sits on him uncomfortably. Nzechukwu threatens with his own unusual foot lock, but he realizes that he has limbs and can hit the grappler with his elbows. He lands a few, and then tries for his toe hold again before stepping into full mount. Nzechukwu puts his fingers in the fence but pulls them out and apologizes to Dean, who signals that Nzechukwu did not actually grab on it and just pushed off.
Nzechukwu is seated while Almeida has him from behind, and he gets away with a cheeky fence grab while Almeida is looking to get top control. Both men stand, and Almeida pulls guard and gets elbowed square in the face for his effort. Nzechukwu starts pummeling Almeida with strikes until Almeida grabs hold of Nzechukwu’s leg for a leglock of some kind. Nzechukwu pulls his leg out of danger and the two result in an uncomfortable, strange position where Almeida cannot swirl around to get on top because Nzechukwu has his arm hooked around Almeida’s elbow. Almeida rolls over, and Nzechukwu takes his back. Nzechukwu beats down on Almeida until the final horn sounds, and a draw is very much in play because of the point deduction in Round 2.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu (28-28)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu (28-28)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-27 Almeida)
The Official Result
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Almeida is Scored a Unanimous Draw (28-28, 28-28, 28-28)
Cody picks Buchecha, believing his BJJ will be decisive. He notes Nzechukwu's poor grappling and Buchecha's improved conditioning. He expects Buchecha to get a takedown and submit Nzechukwu, liking the submission prop.
Connor also picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Buchecha's jiu-jitsu doesn't translate to MMA. He notes that Buchecha had to flop guard against Martin Buday and lost, showing he can't impose his game. Connor also mentions that Nzechukwu has size and reach advantages, and that Buchecha has no confidence in his striking. He sees this as a clear win for Nzechukwu.
Lucrative James picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite grappling and the fact that Kennedy Nzechukwu has been submitted multiple times. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's striking advantage but believes Buchecha's takedown ability and submission threat are too strong to ignore. He projects Buchecha as a +120 underdog.
Paul also picks Buchecha, citing his world-class jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup against a tall, lanky opponent. He thinks Buchecha's takedown ability and top control will be too much for Nzechukwu, and likes the submission prop.
Zane picks Nzechukwu because he has more confidence in his game than Buchecha, who lacks confidence in his striking and has no ability to get to his A-game. He notes that Nzechukwu is huge, has a reach advantage, and has been building confidence by fighting low-confidence heavyweights. Zane also points out that Buchecha's jiu-jitsu is not enough to overcome his poor wrestling and striking, and that he has 'big competitive jiu-jitsu energy' that doesn't translate to fighting.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Valter Walker | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Valter Walker | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Valter Walker can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where his grappling is a problem for Kennedy Nzechukwu. He notes Kennedy can be gunshy and has lost staring contests, while Walker has transformed his body and has back-to-back heel hook finishes. He plans to bet on Walker, monitoring the line movement to find the peak.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Valter Walker to take Kennedy down early and win the first round, but questions Walker's cardio and striking. He believes Walker will gas out, allowing Kennedy to take over in the second and third rounds. He picks Kennedy by second-round knockout.
Connor agrees, noting that Walker has no craft to his stand-up game and relies on a single trick (heel hooks). He thinks Nzechukwu is a better wrestler and grappler by virtue of being a former light heavyweight, and should be able to avoid the submission and win comfortably.
The host expects Nzechukwu to make it 3-0 at heavyweight by stuffing Walker's takedowns and outworking him on the feet. He notes that Nzechukwu is not a title contender but should win a decision. The pick is based on Nzechukwu's ability to keep the fight standing and outpoint Walker.
The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Valter Walker's poor debut against Lucas Brzeski where he looked lost on the feet and had sloppy takedown entries. He notes Nzechukwu's ability to stuff takedowns, referencing his fight with Paul Craig where he shut down 16 attempts. He expects Nzechukwu to survive a first round of danger, then piece up Walker on the feet for a second or third round TKO.
Zane thinks Nzechukwu looked confident and aggressive in his last fight against Lukasz Brzeski, and as a former light heavyweight, he should have better wrestling and grappling than most heavyweights. He believes Walker's goofy heel-hook game won't work against a good wrestler, and Nzechukwu should be able to beat him standing or on the ground.
Angelo initially wanted to pick Martin Buday but changed his mind after rewatching Buday's fight against Andre Arlovski, where Buday struggled to outwork a 45-year-old. He notes Kennedy Nzechukwu has power and takedown defense, and despite being gun-shy at times, he can turn fights around. Angelo picks Kennedy but suggests a prop bet for better value due to the steep odds.
Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He believes Martin Buday's game is limited to cage pushing and that Nzechukwu is the much better striker with more power and cardio. He expects a late finish, possibly a third-round KO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nzechukwu. He shares concerns about Nzechukwu's mental fragility but thinks Buday is not the fighter to exploit it. Connor notes that Buday's record is unimpressive and he hasn't faced killers, while Nzechukwu is a good athlete for his size. He warns that Nzechukwu starts slow, which could allow Buday to get comfortable, but ultimately sees Nzechukwu's skills prevailing.
Buday will make the fight close by engaging in the clinch, but Nzechukwu's athleticism advantage and damage once back in space will cause problems. Nzechukwu is expected to win on the scorecards.
The Guru is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, mocking Martin Buday's poor physique and calling him out of shape. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and dynamism will be too much for Buday, and predicts a first-round TKO via big shots. He notes Buday's training with Tom Aspinall but doesn't think it will help.
Zane picks Nzechukwu, noting he is more technical, diverse, and athletic than Buday. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's confidence issues and tendency to get scared off by aggression, but believes Buday's slow, steady pressure won't overwhelm him. Zane points out that Buday is durable but not powerful, and Nzechukwu has many options to win, though he could still lose if Buday just leans on him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 29 of 70 | 41% | 19 of 55 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 32 of 69 | 46% | 16 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 32 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 29 of 70 | 41% | 19 of 55 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 32 of 69 | 46% | 16 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 32 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting he is a massive heavyweight with an 83-inch reach, decent takedown defense, and power. He believes Nzechukwu's physicality and power will overwhelm Brzeski, who is chinny and coming off a knockout loss. Angelo mentions Nzechukwu is not a true heavyweight but looked fine in his last fight. He considers the odds of -500 fair and might include Nzechukwu in a parlay.
Cody picks Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach, and power advantage. He notes Brzeski's poor record and suspect chin. He expects Nzechukwu to win by knockout, though he acknowledges heavyweight volatility.
Connor picks Nzechukwu confidently, noting that Brzeski cannot take shots and has low output. He points out that Nzechukwu is huge and can build into a fight, and that Brzeski does not have the power or volume to hurt him early. Connor believes Nzechukwu's size and durability will be too much for Brzeski.
Daniel picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and skill advantage at heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and southpaw stance will be key, and expects a knockout given Brzeski's recent losses. He notes Nzechukwu's improved durability without the weight cut.
Nzechukwu is never really super reliable as a -500 favorite, but I expect him to touch up Brzeski from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round.
Paul picks Nzechukwu, citing his physical advantages and Brzeski's lack of skills. He notes Nzechukwu's move to heavyweight and improved comfort. He expects a dominant win, but warns against heavy betting due to heavyweight unpredictability.
The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach advantage, and skill difference on the feet. He thinks Nzechukwu will be bigger and more skilled than Brzeski, who is a smaller heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu will win and could go far in the division.
Zane agrees, picking Nzechukwu. He notes that Brzeski is a low-output volume fighter who cannot take shots, and that Nzechukwu is a giant who can come back into fights. Zane believes Brzeski will not be able to do enough damage to stop Nzechukwu from finding his rhythm.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 51 of 74 | 68% | 51 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Barnett | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 51 of 74 | 68% | 51 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Barnett | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 51 of 74 | 68% | 28 of 50 | 22 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 50 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Barnett | 12 of 34 | 35% | 3 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 51 of 74 | 68% | 28 of 50 | 22 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 50 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Barnett | 12 of 34 | 35% | 3 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu but is very hesitant. He notes Kennedy is taller, longer, and had a full camp, but warns that Kennedy 'kind of sucks' and was a massive favorite who lost to an older opponent in his last fight. He advises staying far away from betting on this fight due to the risk.
Big Brady picks Nzechukwu, noting his significant size advantage (6'5" vs 5'9" on paper, but Barnett is likely shorter). He believes Kennedy has many ways to win: knockout, submission, or decision. He acknowledges Kennedy can be inconsistent but cannot pick Barnett. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his massive reach and height advantage. He notes that Barnett is old, overweight, and has low volume. Cody believes Nzechukwu's length and striking will keep Barnett at range, and that he will win by knockout in the second round. However, he warns that heavyweight fights are unpredictable.
Connor picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a total mess who can't consistently win rounds. He notes that Nzechukwu has the size to dominate but lacks confidence, but against Barnett, he should be able to use his reach and size to win. Connor is not confident in Nzechukwu long-term but sees this as a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win, citing massive advantages in size, reach, and level of competition. He notes that Barnett does not belong in the UFC and that Nzechukwu can win easily by takedown or striking. Vreeland believes the true price is around -900 and that Nzechukwu is a much worse matchup for Barnett than Junior Tafa.
Daniel Vreeland is taking the huge underdog Chris Barnett. He argues that Nzechukwu has awful cardio, no motivation to come in shape now that he doesn't have to cut weight, and gets knocked out. Barnett is a heavy puncher who has won two of his last three by knockout, and Vreeland sees value at +500.
Jeff Fox is reluctantly picking Nzechukwu, pushed into a corner by Vreeland's strong argument for Barnett. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's cardio issues and lack of motivation but still believes he is better than Barnett's previous opponents. Fox seems uncomfortable with the pick but sticks with Nzechukwu.
Nzechukwu is a big favorite but tough to trust after his last performance. He should keep Barnett at bay and possibly find a finish after the 1.5 round mark. However, minus 700 is a bit too wide for comfort.
Paul picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a freak show fighter past his prime. He notes that Nzechukwu's reach and volume will be too much, and that Barnett's durability is questionable. Paul is confident Nzechukwu wins but avoids betting at heavy odds.
The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Barnett's long layoff (over two years), age (38), and questionable conditioning. He believes Nzechukwu's athleticism and range will allow him to pick apart Barnett. He notes Barnett's past fight cancellations and weight issues. The Guru predicts Nzechukwu will win by decision or late finish.
Zane picks Nzechukwu despite his lack of power and confidence, because Barnett is a tiny heavyweight with no real tools besides confidence. Nzechukwu's size and reach will allow him to crowd Barnett and overwhelm him, though he expects a messy fight. Zane notes that Barnett has lost to other former light heavyweights and lacks durability.
Zane picked Nzechukwu, noting that Barnett is a fun fighter but not going to beat big heavyweights. He highlighted that Barnett injured his leg in the pre-fight intro and further during a wheel kick, which was predictable given his rushed recovery from an Achilles injury. Zane praised Nzechukwu's size and form but questioned his confidence, suggesting he may struggle against other big heavyweights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 143 of 276 | 51% | 143 of 276 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 106 of 250 | 42% | 106 of 250 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 44 of 79 | 55% | 44 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 29 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 73 of 140 | 52% | 73 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 55 of 113 | 48% | 55 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 143 of 276 | 51% | 98 of 223 | 32 of 39 | 13 of 14 | 131 of 262 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 106 of 250 | 42% | 85 of 213 | 19 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 93 of 235 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 26 of 57 | 45% | 10 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 22 of 57 | 38% | 14 of 37 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 44 of 79 | 55% | 30 of 62 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 44 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 29 of 80 | 36% | 25 of 73 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 73 of 140 | 52% | 58 of 123 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 61 of 126 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 55 of 113 | 48% | 46 of 103 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 99 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this his most confident pick on the card. Nzechukwu is long, powerful, has solid takedown defense, and is never out of a fight, though he can be gun-shy. Saint Preux is 40, has no chin, and is frustratingly low-volume, rarely letting his hands go. Angelo sees no path to victory for Saint Preux outside a Hail Mary bomb, which is unlikely given his low output. He thinks Nzechukwu will win easily.
Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by first-round knockout. He believes OSP is past his prime and not motivated, while Nzechukwu is a big favorite for a reason. He expects a quick finish despite Nzechukwu's history of weird outcomes.
Cody is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, believing OSP is completely washed and on his way out. He details OSP's decline: missing weight, looking flat, and being knocked out in recent fights. He acknowledges Kennedy's chin issues but thinks OSP lacks the power to exploit them. He warns against the minus 500 line but still picks Kennedy.
Lucrative James sees Kennedy Nzechukwu as a massive favorite and expects him to finish the fight. He notes that OSP has looked washed recently, with poor cardio and chin, and that Kennedy can knock him out on the feet, with elbows, or in the clinch. He dismisses OSP's chances, stating that the only way OSP wins is if Kennedy makes a huge mistake.
The host notes that Saint Preux is nearing 41 and fighting a young, hungry fighter in Nzechukwu, who should have speed and power advantages. He expects Nzechukwu to light up Saint Preux early and get a TKO, but mentions that the -500 or -700 odds are too much given the weight class and Saint Preux's experience. He still thinks the under 1.5 rounds should come through easily.
Paul also picks Kennedy, echoing that OSP is done. He notes Kennedy's physical advantages (size, speed, reach) and OSP's inability to take punches anymore. He calls it an 'apple pie situation' where fading OSP is tempting but warns about Kennedy's own flaws. He still expects Kennedy to win.
The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO, citing OSP's age (40) and recent KO loss to Philipe Lins. He notes Nzechukwu is chinny but has youth and momentum. He dismisses OSP's win over Shogun as controversial and believes Nzechukwu will get the finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Jacoby | 1 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Jacoby | 1 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Jacoby | 10 of 33 | 30% | 5 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 4 of 18 | 22% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Jacoby | 10 of 33 | 30% | 5 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 4 of 18 | 22% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging Dustin Jacoby is the better striker. He notes that Kennedy is bigger, more dangerous, and has fought higher competition. He warns that Kennedy is never out of a fight and can come from behind, but also mentions that Jacoby was dropped in his last fight, which is concerning. Angelo admits he would love Jacoby as an underdog if not for that, but ultimately goes with Kennedy's danger factor.
Big Brady is uncertain but leans toward Nzechukwu. He argues that if Nzechukwu strikes with Jacoby he'll lose, but his path to victory is wrestling. He notes Nzechukwu's takedown defense is good and his grappling has improved, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Nzechukwu can take Jacoby down and control him, especially since Jacoby has been taken down many times before. He predicts a decision win but admits Nzechukwu fights are hard to predict.
Cody leans towards Nzechukwu on the moneyline, but his main interest is a small poke on Kennedy by submission at +950. He believes Kennedy will rely on grappling and can submit Jacoby, who has faced few grapplers. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing base and cardio, but thinks Kennedy's improvements in grappling and size could be decisive.
Daniel Levi leans toward Kennedy Nzechukwu but is not confident. He acknowledges Jacoby's striking credentials and past success, but worries about Jacoby's age (35-36) and potential decline. Levi notes Nzechukwu's physical advantages (7-inch reach, southpaw) and his knack for comebacks, but also his slow starts and durability concerns. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers Nzechukwu at the current price, though he would have picked Jacoby two years ago.
James changed his mind after tape. He thinks Nzechukwu is younger, more athletic, and on an upward trajectory while Jacoby is declining. Nzechukwu's height and reach advantage will disrupt Jacoby's outside kickboxing game. He expects Nzechukwu to force pressure, clinch, and possibly finish inside the distance.
Jacoby loves combination striking, leg kicks, and body work. He had a 6-1-1 run until a split decision loss to Khalil Rountree and a bad KO loss. If he can stay safe and not get dropped, he should outpoint Nzechukwu, who is explosive but wears down. Jacoby's durability is a concern, but I'm sticking with Jacoby as a dog shot. He wins by decision.
Paul takes Jacoby at plus money, citing his volume, leg kicks, and takedown defense. He notes Kennedy's suspect cardio and tendency to get rocked, and believes Jacoby can outland him in a kickboxing match. However, he acknowledges Jacoby's fights are often close decisions and only takes him at plus money.
The host picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his youth (31), durability, and recent momentum. He believes Nzechukwu will out-volume Jacoby and has a granite chin. He notes Jacoby is 35 and coming off a loss. He thinks Nzechukwu wins by decision but could finish. He warns that if the line goes above -165, value shifts to Jacoby.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 62 of 81 | 76% | 79 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 36 of 58 | 62% | 61 of 90 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 41 of 53 | 77% | 54 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 47 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 21 of 28 | 75% | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 62 of 81 | 76% | 44 of 63 | 18 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 53 of 64 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 36 of 58 | 62% | 25 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 28 | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 41 of 53 | 77% | 34 of 46 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 39 of 50 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 25 of 37 | 67% | 18 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 21 of 28 | 75% | 10 of 17 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 11 of 21 | 52% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting his length, power, and ability to come back from behind. He compares this fight to Kennedy's last win where he lost the first round before knocking out Jan Kutulaba. Angelo is hesitant because Kennedy can be a slow starter and gun-shy, which could allow Devin Clark to grind out early rounds. However, he believes Kennedy hits too hard and is never out of a fight, expecting a finish similar to his last performance.
Big Brady picks Nzechukwu, citing his massive size and reach advantages. He notes Nzechukwu is finally putting it together, showing improved grappling and takedown defense. He believes Clark will struggle with the reach and power, and Nzechukwu's get-up game is excellent. He predicts a second-round knockout, as Nzechukwu starts slow but finishes strong.
Cody sees value in Clark at plus money, noting his cardio and cage control are his best weapons. He believes Clark can press Nzechukwu against the fence, use outside trips to take him down, and grind out a win. He points out that Nzechukwu has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and Clark's style is perfectly suited to exploit that.
Connor picks Nzechukwu more confidently, arguing that Nzechukwu has a plan and can use pressure striking and reach, not just clinching. He notes Devin Clark has no technical foundation and relies on physicality, but Nzechukwu can adapt and find moments. Connor acknowledges Clark is tough and strong, but Nzechukwu should be able to outwork him.
The host picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by late first round stoppage. He believes Nzechukwu's improved striking and power will overcome Devin Clark's grappling. He notes Clark's durability issues and expects Nzechukwu to land big shots after a potentially sticky early grappling exchange.
Paul also picks Clark, having bet him at +180. He notes Clark's chin concerns are overblown, as he's shown durability in recent fights. He expects Clark to use his wrestling and pressure to control the fight, similar to his win over Jung. He thinks the line is too wide.
The Guru picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and range advantage over Clark. He believes Nzechukwu will pick at Clark on the feet and land knees as Clark closes distance. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's questionable chin (KO by Dalton Young) but thinks Clark's wrestling won't be effective due to Nzechukwu's size. He predicts a TKO in the later rounds.
Zane picks Nzechukwu but is hesitant because Nzechukwu is not a range fighter and may struggle to avoid Clark's physicality. He notes Clark is beatable if you don't fight his fight, but Nzechukwu tends to clinch and pressure, which could play into Clark's strengths. However, Nzechukwu gets stronger as fights go on and Clark is not a finisher, giving Nzechukwu time to grow into the fight.
Pual retired. Equal on the feet, pulled traingle near the fence. Got elbow ko on the buzzard rd1
18.0 ko for Paul is crazy