UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022 · Middleweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Dustin Stoltzfus
3.3 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
2.08 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dwight Grant
3.29 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
2.66 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.61 TD Avg
100.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Dustin Stoltzfus
Moneyline
BetWay -120
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +400
Decision
BetMGM +325
Dwight Grant
Moneyline
Caesars +115
KO/TKO
FanDuel +310
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
FanDuel +300
Dustin Stoltzfus - Fight History
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 21 of 37 56% 41 of 62 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:11
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 35 of 68 51% 53 of 94 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 5 of 13 38% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:14
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 13 of 27 48% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 2 of 3 66% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 19 57% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 21 66% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:44
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 21 of 37 56% 5 of 19 4 of 6 12 of 12 19 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 35 of 68 51% 24 of 53 8 of 11 3 of 4 24 of 52 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 5 of 13 38% 2 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 13 of 27 48% 8 of 19 2 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 19 57% 9 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 21 66% 2 of 7 2 of 4 10 of 10 13 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruziboev (-298), Stoltzfus (+240)

Round 1
From one action fight to another we go, this time in the middleweight division. Stoltzfus (16-6, 3-5 UFC) has only gone the distance twice in his eight UFC outings, while all three wins inside the Octagon for Ruziboev (35-9-2, 2 NC; 3-1 UFC) have come by knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni knows he very well might be needed before the final horn. There is a no glove touch, as Stoltzfus declines to do so. Ruziboev accepts this and lets go with an early leg kick. Stoltzfus pulls back on a body kick, but Ruziboev does not do that as his lands flush. The Uzbekistani fighter scores a calf kick, and Stoltzfus does the same. The calf is the target for Ruziboev, until he swings his way in with two booming punches. Stoltzfus tries to grab hold of the taller man, but Ruziboev tosses him aside and lines up a straight right hand. The two clash heads together, and Stoltzfus manages to land the cleaner of the two and knocks “Black” to his seat. Stoltzfus rushes forward and jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and he steps into full mount and wraps the submission up and under the chin. Ruziboev pats Stoltzfus’ backside but it is not registered as a tap, and Stoltzfus imposes his weight to complete the maneuver. Ruziboev thinks about giving up but explodes to flip Stoltzfus over, and he gets into the guard and just hangs out there to get his wits back about him. Ruziboev postures up to drop down a punch and an elbow, and Stoltzfus works his way up and ignores a guillotine setup from his opponent. Stoltzfus times a spinning back elbow to break, and the two split up. Ruziboev opens up with a left hand and a spinning back kick, and his second spin kick misses as Stoltzfus cracks him with a counter. Ruziboev bounces around to shake it out, leaping forward to deliver single punches that connect each and every time. Stoltzfus is tough as can be, but Ruziboev slugs him in the chops until he wraps his arm around the Pennsylvanian and wrangles him to the mat. The bell sounds, to the surprise of many.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev

Round 2
The second round opens with a head kick from Ruziboev after a bit of measuring. After some more timing, Ruziboev lets loose a spinning wheel kick that bangs square into Stoltzfus’ head. Stoltzfus swings his way forward, catching Ruziboev and putting him on his heels. Stoltzfus pursues a takedown, and Ruziboev defends with a kimura. Stoltzfus fights it off and lowers Ruziboev to his back, his nose pouring blood from a particularly nasty uppercut. Stoltzfus gets in half guard and pursues an arm-triangle choke, letting it go to bash Ruziboev with punches and short elbows. Stoltzfus sets up another guillotine choke and leans to the side, and Ruziboev turns to defend it. This allows Stoltzfus to briefly pursue a brabo choke, only to let it go when he does not have the right leverage. Ruziboev powers back to his feet and finds himself in guillotine danger once more, but the blood covering Ruziboev’s melon plus the fatigue setting in allows him to slip out. Ruziboev counters with a knee to the body, and he smacks Stoltzfus with a hammerfist and inadvertently headbutts him. Ruziboev keeps slugging away, and Stoltzfus snatches up a leg and turns into it to drag Ruziboev down to a knee. Ruziboev pulls on the fence to defend it, as Tognoni shouts at him to knock it off. The damage is done from the foul, as Ruziboev escapes and lowers himself down to start pounding on the bloodied Stoltzfus again. Stoltzfus sways to avoid the worst of the ground-and-pound, and he lands his own sneaky shots off his back right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev

Round 3
The last round kicks off with both men taking a moment to analyze the other. Ruziboev darts in with a jab and a body kick, and Tognoni warns that the kick went south of the border. Stoltzfus is no worse for wear, and he lets the fight continue. Clubbing Ruziboev’s lead leg with his shin, he knocks the taller man to his seat and times a right hand to drive into his jaw. Ruziboev twists around to stand back up, and he parries a front kick aimed at his chest. Stoltzfus rushes at him, ducking a punch to tie his man up, and Ruziboev darts away in time. Ruziboev reaches his target with a left hook, and Stoltzfus kicks him in the front leg. Ruziboev times a right hand over the top, and he spins and drills Stoltzfus in the face with a wheel kick. Stoltzfus takes it on the chin and lashes out with a right hand, and he gets knocked back with an overhand right counter that bangs into his gloves. Stoltzfus lets fly his own spinning wheel kick, and it clatters off the guard. Ruziboev does the same. They crack one another with single right hands, and then connect with hard lefts. As Ruziboev swings for the fences, Stoltzfus tackles him to the ground and lands in half guard. Stoltzfus imposes his weight while not getting much offense off, looking instead to advance position. Tognoni asks Stoltzfus for more activity, as Stoltzfus is solely covering his foe’s mouth but not offering any strikes. Stoltzfus climbs into mount with 50 seconds to go, and Ruziboev scrambles like a madman to get to his knees. Stoltzfus wraps up the beginning of a brabo choke, and when Ruziboev fights through it, he transitions to a guillotine. Ruziboev pulls out of it, and he delivers a spin kick to the ribs. Ruziboev nails the American with a right hand, and they proceed to miss with spinning strikes before time expires. They raise their fists in the air after 15 minutes of bloody combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev (29-28 Ruziboev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus (29-28 Ruziboev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus (29-28 Ruziboev)

The Official Result
Nursultan Ruziboev def. Dustin Stoltzfus via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.

Angelo suggests the over on a round line might be sneaky good because Ruziboev has an incredible chin.
"Nerzleton's the pick. The minus 280 odds seem pretty affordable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.

Stoltzfus by decision
"I'm taking Stoultz here, believe it or not. ... I think he has all the tools to to win this fight. So I'll say Solstus wins this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.

Stoltzfus by decision or submission
"As long as Stoultzfus has really minded his P's and Q's in this fight and really sharpened his game with the help of extreme couture, he should be you able to utilize his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.

Ruziboev by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Nultton Marusv TKO in the first or second round."
KO (punches) R1 4:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to weather an early storm from Dustin Stoltzfus and take over with volume. He notes Barriault has impressive striking volume (almost 6 sig strikes per minute) but is also hit a lot. He thinks Stoltzfus is dangerous early with power but has a questionable chin. He suggests betting the over if a 1.5 round line is available, as the fight could go long.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Mark Andre is going to be the pick I think he can weather an early storm Dustin is dangerous and Mark was just knocked out but I think Joe pyer hits at like a completely different velocity than most other …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He likes Barriault's cardio, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Stoltzfus's striking is not good and that Barriault will piece him up over 15 minutes. Brady expects Barriault to stuff takedowns and outwork Stoltzfus on the feet.

"give me bario bario to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Cody picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his pressure, power, and volume advantage over Stoltzfus. He notes that Stoltzfus relies on wrestling but has poor takedown success against strong grapplers, and Barriault's takedown defense is solid. He also mentions Stoltzfus's recent KO loss and potential psychological issues, and believes Barriault can finish him late or win a decision.

"I feel like bario should be one of them."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his durability and tendency to get better as the fight progresses. He questions Dustin Stoltzfus's confidence and ability to handle adversity, noting that Barriault will expose any weaknesses in cardio or chin. Vreeland acknowledges Stoltzfus's skills but believes Barriault's toughness and pressure will prevail, though the price (-205) makes it a pass for betting.

"I'mma pick Mark Andre bario"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Lucrative James picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to dominate with pace and pressure in the clinch. He believes Stoltzfus will be competitive in round one but fade, and that Barriault will get a third-round finish or decision. He highlights Barriault's body shots and uppercuts in the clinch.

round three or decision
"I'm taking mab to survive T some type of storm to have a competitive round one but start to dominate round two and round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Barriault is coming back too quickly after a knockout, but if his durability holds up, he should put pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finish him in the second or third round via TKO.

finish in second or third round via TKO
"I do believe if his durability hold up holds up here he should do a good enough job in terms of putting pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finishing him in the second or third round via TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Stoltzfus's recent facial fracture and nerve damage may affect his performance. He notes that Barriault's constant pressure and power should overwhelm Stoltzfus, and he sees a potential late stoppage. He also suggests live betting Barriault if he loses the first round.

"I think bario but I'm going to avoid like the split decision kind of angle... I do actually think it's possible that barrier gets him out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

The Guru picks Marc-André Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus, believing Barriault's pace and activity will be decisive. He notes Stoltzfus lacks finishing ability and cardio, while Barriault keeps a high output. He expects a decision win for Barriault.

decision
"I'm G to go against Dustin stsus shock twist I know and go of Mark Andre barel I just see this making it into the decision area"
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (spinning back elbow) R1 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ferreira (-265), Stoltzfus (+215)

Round 1
Win or lose, all 12 of Brazilian bomber Ferreira’s (11-1, 2-1 UFC) pro outings have ended before the 6:08 mark. The same cannot be said for Pennsylvania-based grappler Stoltzfus (15-5, 2-4 UFC), but he knows his way around a stoppage as well. Referee Jason Herzog dons his hard hat for the middleweight proceeding, one that commences with them coming together in the center of the cage but not to touch gloves. They back off, as Ferreira retreats around the edge of the cage while Stoltzfus walks his way forward. Stoltzfus lands a right hand as Ferreira zips away, and Ferreira lands a low kick that gets countered with a straight right. Ferreira unloads with a ferocious right hand that stings the Pennsylvanian, and he blasts him with a second as Stoltzfus counters to surprise him. Stoltzfus crashes the pocket and tosses Ferreira to the mat, and he pushes “The Hulk” over to get into his guard. Ferreira utilizes butterfly hooks to kick Stoltzfus off of him, and he turns over when he does this to stand but Stoltzfus leaps on his back to keep him grounded. Ferreira works his way back upright, and he fights off an armbar. Stoltzfus transitions into a kneebar, and Ferreira gets away with a fence grab to reposition himself. Ferreira rolls through to get out of the leglock, and Stoltzfus runs at him throwing hands before banging into him and pushing him to the wall. Stoltzfus lands a right hand, and Ferreira responds with a stern elbow before darting away to reset. Stoltzfus walks forward and kicks “The Hulk” high, and he dings him with a follow-up right hand. Ferreira misses with a right hand, and he guards another had kick effort. Stoltzfus spins with a back kick that slams square into Ferreira’s midsection, and Ferreira has to shake it out and kick him in the belly. Ferreira spins with a back elbow that hurts Stoltzfus, and the two start slugging with everything they have. Stoltzfus is in a bad way but still swinging for the fences, and he pursues a takedown but is pushed away by “The Hulk.” Stoltzfus drills his man with an elbow, but Ferreira is relentless, throwing everything he has into a right hand that slams into his foe’s temple. Stoltzfus staggers back, and Ferreira reaches him with a long right hand and whips a head kick at him that pounds into the shoulder. Ferreira leaps forward but his knee is not high enough, so he just ends up bumping chest-to-chest into his foe.
The Brazilian lands two shots to the body, takes a few steps back and spins with a mighty elbow. The strike connects cleanly on the forehead, putting Stoltzfus down as Herzog springs between them to stop the fight.
While Stoltzfus is still standing as Herzog halts the contest, he does not protest the stoppage as he is still out on his feet and needs to be caught so he does not fall over. Ferreira, who might be out of steam after his final onslaught, jumps on the ground and slams it with both hands like “The Hulk” does during his Hulk Smash move. This is a spectacular finish, and one of just a small handful of knockouts via spinning elbow in UFC history. The main card has undoubtedly picked up after a slow set of prelims, delivering a “Round of the Year” candidate along with a potential suitor for the “Knockout of the Year” list as well.

The Official Result
Bruno Ferreira def. Dustin Stoltzfus R1 4:51 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.

Brunno Ferreira wins inside the distance
"Bruno FAA inside the distance no less"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.

knockout round 1; live bet Stoltzfus if survives first round
"give me Bruno Ferrera to win this fight and win this fight by first round Nar knockout I think he Sparks Dustin stsf in the early going"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.

"I would think that there's a lot of pass here for stus but largely he's going to have to get out of that first round Bruno we know he's a tank engine for the first round but almost all of …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.

dog or pass
"I'm going to go Dustin Stoltzfus here now"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.

Brunno Ferreira in a parlay; live bet on Dustin Stoltzfus if fight goes past round 1
"I'm picking Bruno I think he is going to find that shot but if this gets out of the first round I don't care how the first round looked Saturday live stream if we're streaming you better believe I'm putting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.

"give me stfo and St Fus by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.

"it's a dogger pass type of situation as well Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.

KO win prediction
"Bruno fa is going to smoke him... there will be one person in this fight who is a lot more [__] himself than the other one and it's going to be Dustin stus so I think that's going to lead …"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 31 of 73 42% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 64 of 123 52% 78 of 140 4 of 7 57% 1 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 41 of 79 51% 43 of 82 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:29
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 9 of 26 34% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 0 23 of 44 52% 35 of 58 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 31 of 73 42% 18 of 56 9 of 11 4 of 6 30 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 64 of 123 52% 24 of 79 23 of 27 17 of 17 60 of 116 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 22 of 47 46% 13 of 35 7 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 41 of 79 51% 15 of 51 17 of 19 9 of 9 37 of 72 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 9 of 26 34% 5 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 23 of 44 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 8 of 8 23 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say San catches them early if it does get extended it might get sketchy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335
"what's Puna round one is that a number that I might be interested in it's plus 200 standby for further confirmation that that could get that could get a little bit of money for me I mean what's him by …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.

inside the distance, likely knockout in round one
"I think he's going to get cracked by punah heli Sano Sano is a decent fighter man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.

round 1 prop, under 1.5 rounds recommended
"give me Sano minus 300 a little bit too much I'd probably hone in on that round one prop maybe the under one and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335 considered
"I think he wins the fight am I super confident no because I don't really like s all that much but I think he wins this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.

KO in second round or late first
"I'm going to go with Punahele Soriano... I reckon he'll get a KO in the second round or late in the first."
KO (front kick and punches) R1 0:19 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magomedov (-265), Stoltzfus (+225)

Round 1
Wrapping up the prelims with a bow, highly touted debutant Magomedov (24-4-1, 0-0 UFC) will finally step into the Octagon for the first time after a number of unfortunate delays. He draws Stoltzfus (14-4, 1-3 UFC) in his first assignment, who will serve as the final U.S.-based fighter on the card. Out of the last 14 wins for “Abus,” he has procured stoppages in 13 of those, with his lone decision coming over PFL 2022 welterweight finalist Sadibou Sy back in 2018. The third man inside the cage for this one will be referee Loic Pora, who stands back while the two men bump fists. Stoltzfus punches his way into an exchange, blocking a kick with his knee on the way in. Magomedov is a man possessed after this brief feeling-out process,
splitting the guard with a Lyoto Machida-esque front kick that staggers the American. Magomedov senses he already has Stoltzfus in danger, and he meets Stoltzfus with an uppercut that knocks him back to the wall. “Abus” releases a left hook and a massive uppercut that wreck Stoltzfus, who crumbles to his back on the floor. Sealing the deal, the German-Russian newcomer drives two blistering right hands into the jaw, and Stoltzfus goes out and gets snapped back into consciousness with the thunderous punches.
Pora cannot get in fast enough to save Stoltzfus from any further damage, and Magomedov has just made a massive statement by destroying Stoltzfus in less than 20 seconds. The stoppage will likely clock in as one of the fastest knockouts in UFC middleweight history, depending on when it was officially called. Wow.

The Official Result
Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Dustin Stoltzfus R1 0:19 via TKO (Front Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.

"i am gonna do a slight lean here for dustin this is a very low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.

"i'll say magametto by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.

"I'll think i'll take the dog shot dustin stolfest but again i mean it's hard to get really excited and confident about it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.

"I'm gonna pick a boost but I'm not as confident as you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

Magomedov inside the distance (plus 120)
"Give me Abus inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm picking my uh abus magomedov in the spot... definitely not taking the shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.

Magomedov wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to be going with abba sippy and magomedov it's a trustworthy pick"
WIN vs Dwight Grant
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 52 of 100 52% 54 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 49 of 112 43% 102 of 173 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 28 50% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 20 of 38 52% 31 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 15 of 37 40% 15 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 12 of 31 38% 54 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 52 of 100 52% 35 of 79 7 of 9 10 of 12 50 of 97 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 49 of 112 43% 23 of 81 7 of 8 19 of 23 35 of 88 3 of 4 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 23 of 35 65% 19 of 30 1 of 1 3 of 4 21 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 17 of 43 39% 7 of 30 2 of 3 8 of 10 15 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 28 50% 5 of 16 5 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 20 of 38 52% 12 of 29 4 of 4 4 of 5 10 of 21 1 of 1 9 of 16
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 15 of 37 40% 11 of 33 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 12 of 31 38% 4 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 8 10 of 27 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.

advises not to bet on this fight
"i think dwight grant is the overall better fighter so he's going to be my pick but dustin's live for a stoppage here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.

"i'm gonna take dwight grant um just stylistically it should be a winnable matchup for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.

"i'm so done with dwight grant there's no world that exists that i'm willing to pay minus 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.

underdog bet; possible submission
"i'm gonna go dustin stoltzfus for the upset and i'm actually considering uh betting him at the underdog price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.

"it's dogger pass for me i'm gonna go soul foods the guy who actually fights at 185 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.

predicts KO
"i'm going with dwight grant in the middleweight division dustin stoltzfus other than looking like tom hardy um there's no real impressive part of his career whatsoever"
Dwight Grant - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 52 of 100 52% 54 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 49 of 112 43% 102 of 173 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 28 50% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 20 of 38 52% 31 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 15 of 37 40% 15 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 12 of 31 38% 54 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 52 of 100 52% 35 of 79 7 of 9 10 of 12 50 of 97 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 49 of 112 43% 23 of 81 7 of 8 19 of 23 35 of 88 3 of 4 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 23 of 35 65% 19 of 30 1 of 1 3 of 4 21 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 17 of 43 39% 7 of 30 2 of 3 8 of 10 15 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 28 50% 5 of 16 5 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 20 of 38 52% 12 of 29 4 of 4 4 of 5 10 of 21 1 of 1 9 of 16
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 15 of 37 40% 11 of 33 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 12 of 31 38% 4 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 8 10 of 27 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.

advises not to bet on this fight
"i think dwight grant is the overall better fighter so he's going to be my pick but dustin's live for a stoppage here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.

"i'm gonna take dwight grant um just stylistically it should be a winnable matchup for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.

"i'm so done with dwight grant there's no world that exists that i'm willing to pay minus 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.

underdog bet; possible submission
"i'm gonna go dustin stoltzfus for the upset and i'm actually considering uh betting him at the underdog price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.

"it's dogger pass for me i'm gonna go soul foods the guy who actually fights at 185 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.

predicts KO
"i'm going with dwight grant in the middleweight division dustin stoltzfus other than looking like tom hardy um there's no real impressive part of his career whatsoever"
TKO (punches) R2 4:15 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergey Khandozhko 1 42 of 110 38% 47 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Dwight Grant 2 49 of 125 39% 49 of 125 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergey Khandozhko 1 25 of 63 39% 30 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Dwight Grant 1 18 of 52 34% 18 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
2 Sergey Khandozhko 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Dwight Grant 1 31 of 73 42% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergey Khandozhko 42 of 110 38% 35 of 103 5 of 5 2 of 2 38 of 105 2 of 2 2 of 3
Dwight Grant 49 of 125 39% 35 of 109 13 of 15 1 of 1 47 of 120 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergey Khandozhko 25 of 63 39% 21 of 59 3 of 3 1 of 1 21 of 58 2 of 2 2 of 3
Dwight Grant 18 of 52 34% 12 of 46 6 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sergey Khandozhko 17 of 47 36% 14 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 31 of 73 42% 23 of 63 7 of 9 1 of 1 29 of 68 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Angelo picks Dwight Grant, citing experience and speed, but notes his gut says Sergey due to pressure and willingness to chase stoppage. He says Grant has more power but Sergey has better counter-striking. He warns that if Grant's cardio slips, Sergey's pressure will steal rounds. He also notes Sergey is coming off a two-year layoff and will watch weigh-ins.

"i gotta go with grant here but if his cardio slips up even a little bit sergey's pressure is gonna steal rounds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win a close decision, citing his power advantage and recent activity. He notes that Sergey Khandozhko has been out for over two years, which is a concern. He expects a low-volume striking match and thinks Grant lands the harder shots. He has low confidence and says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

"I'll take dwight grant to land the harder shots... dwight grant wins like a very close and competitive decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Khandozhko

Cody picks Khandozhko but is not confident. He notes Khandozhko's long layoff and low volume striking. He thinks the over 2.5 rounds is a good parlay piece. He expects a low-volume striking affair and avoids heavy betting.

Over 2.5 rounds (-170)
"I'll pick the candy man just cause i think i'm the only person who calls him that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Sergey Khandozhko

The host picks Sergey Khandozhko in his quick picks list but does not elaborate or place a bet on this fight. No strong reasoning is provided.

"sergey kandosko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Paul leans Grant, citing his higher level of competition and Khandozhko's inactivity. He notes Grant's fights often go to split decision and that Khandozhko hasn't fought in three years. He expects a boring striking battle and avoids heavy betting.

"ever so slightly i'll lean towards dwight grant but he burns me all the time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant by KO in the second or third round. He notes Grant's power and awkward style, comparing him to Uriah Hall. He believes Khandozhko's long layoff will cause jitters and that Grant can catch him as the fight goes on. He mentions Grant's close fight with Francisco Trinaldo and his power to put away opponents. He also notes Grant is a slight underdog, which he likes.

KO in second or third round, slight underdog
"i'm gonna go with dwight grant here i'm gonna go with him by ko in the third round or the second round late second round third round ko"
Decision (split) (29–27, 27–29, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Trinaldo 0 36 of 70 51% 61 of 101 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:45
Dwight Grant 0 31 of 133 23% 41 of 145 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Trinaldo 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 14 of 51 27% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Francisco Trinaldo 0 15 of 28 53% 16 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
Dwight Grant 0 8 of 48 16% 13 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
3 Francisco Trinaldo 0 10 of 22 45% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Dwight Grant 0 9 of 34 26% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Trinaldo 36 of 70 51% 20 of 50 11 of 14 5 of 6 26 of 57 4 of 5 6 of 8
Dwight Grant 31 of 133 23% 20 of 114 7 of 14 4 of 5 28 of 128 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Trinaldo 11 of 20 55% 4 of 12 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 14 of 51 27% 6 of 39 4 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Francisco Trinaldo 15 of 28 53% 9 of 19 4 of 6 2 of 3 11 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 8 of 48 16% 8 of 44 0 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 4
3 Francisco Trinaldo 10 of 22 45% 7 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 8
Dwight Grant 9 of 34 26% 6 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Angelo leans Trinaldo because he thinks the shorter, stockier fighter can get inside Grant's reach, get to the hips, and grind. He notes Grant has questionable cardio and was knocked out in his last fight despite winning early. However, he's worried about Trinaldo's age (43) and when he'll start to decline. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight and will have Trinaldo in his DraftKings lineup.

considering a +3.5 bet on Grant or a 'wins inside distance, decision no action' bet on Grant; likes more/more on monkey knife fight; will spend 8400 on Trinaldo in DraftKings
"i'm leaning trinaldo i like ronaldo here styles make fights short stocky guy should be able to get inside the range bully dwight grant to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Grant to knock out the 43-year-old Trinaldo, citing Trinaldo's age, size disadvantage, and recent knockdowns. He notes Grant's power and Trinaldo's never-been-KO'd record, but believes the chin will crack. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"i think dwight grant knocks him out here he's now 43 years old we've seen him hurt a lot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Cody picks Francisco Trinaldo, admitting it's a heart-over-mind bet. He notes Trinaldo's durability and veteran savvy, and criticizes Dwight Grant's tendency to run away and his unimpressive UFC performances. Cody points out that Grant has looked abysmal, losing to low-level competition and barely beating Stefan Sekulich. He believes Trinaldo's toughness and forward pressure will be enough to win, though he acknowledges the risk.

Heart over mind bet; legend
"i'm betting grandpa again here bud um if i lose i lose i'll still be up on grandpa trinaldo bets over the course of my life by by a wide margin love the guy legend"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

Lock picks Trinaldo based on pressure and durability. He notes Trinaldo has never been knocked down and should stalk Grant, who tends to backpedal. He expects Trinaldo to win by decision, citing Grant's lack of volume and Trinaldo's superior kickboxing.

Trinaldo by decision +195
"i like trinaldo minus 135. i think it's a solid spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He notes that Trinaldo is now the favorite and he is not interested at that price. He also points out that Dwight Grant could win by staying on the outside and landing chip shots. Paul seems to lean towards passing on the fight.

"now that he's the favorite i'm not interested in taking a shot on francisco tripp"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Trinaldo

The MMA Guru picks Francisco Trinaldo, trusting his chin and durability. He criticizes Dwight Grant for being gun-shy and compares him to Uriah Hall. He believes Trinaldo's pressure and chin will carry him to a decision win, though he notes Grant has KO power.

"i'm gonna trust francisco trinaldo to get this one done"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dwight Grant 0 49 of 156 31% 52 of 160 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Stefan Sekulić 0 33 of 52 63% 39 of 59 3 of 7 42% 1 0 2:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dwight Grant 0 14 of 49 28% 16 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stefan Sekulić 0 7 of 13 53% 12 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
2 Dwight Grant 0 18 of 58 31% 18 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stefan Sekulić 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:56
3 Dwight Grant 0 17 of 49 34% 18 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Stefan Sekulić 0 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dwight Grant 49 of 156 31% 28 of 126 10 of 17 11 of 13 45 of 152 2 of 2 2 of 2
Stefan Sekulić 33 of 52 63% 14 of 31 5 of 7 14 of 14 31 of 50 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dwight Grant 14 of 49 28% 6 of 37 3 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stefan Sekulić 7 of 13 53% 2 of 7 2 of 3 3 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Dwight Grant 18 of 58 31% 11 of 47 2 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Stefan Sekulić 12 of 20 60% 4 of 12 1 of 1 7 of 7 12 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dwight Grant 17 of 49 34% 11 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 47 0 of 0 2 of 2
Stefan Sekulić 14 of 19 73% 8 of 12 2 of 3 4 of 4 14 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Grant to win by first-round knockout. He notes Grant has power and a 70% finish rate by KO, while Sekulić is hittable with poor striking defense and has been knocked out before. He has concerns about Grant's chin and cardio after his last fight, but expects Grant's power to be too much early. He suggests the under is a better bet.

Grant by KO in round 1; under
"i'm going to say why grant knocks out secular in that first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Stefan Sekulić

Cody also leans toward Sekulić, noting Grant's low output and cardio problems. He thinks Sekulić can implement a grinding gameplan and take Grant down. He acknowledges Grant's power but believes Sekulić's wrestling and durability will be key. He passes on betting Grant at -210.

"if sekolich can clench him get him up against the cage shoot some takedowns work them it'll be a jacob malcoon type performance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dwight Grant

Daniel picks Dwight Grant, citing his vicious knockout power and the fact that Stefan Sekulić is coming off jaw surgery. He notes Grant's low volume and age as concerns, but expects Grant to catch Sekulić. He mentions that if Grant lays an egg, he could be outworked.

"i'm going to go with dwight grant to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dwight Grant

I think Grant's power and explosiveness will be too much for Sekulić, who is coming off a long layoff and a USADA suspension. Grant has low volume but big power, and if he lands, he can finish. I like Grant by KO at +120, but I'm not a huge fan of Grant overall. The under 2.5 at -130 is also a consideration.

Grant by KO +120
"i think that power that explosiveness and that speed of dwight grant is going to be a little bit too much for secular chair and i think he ends up finding that knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Stefan Sekulić

Paul leans toward Sekulić, citing Grant's low output and cardio issues. He thinks Sekulić can grind Grant against the cage and take him down, similar to how others have beaten Grant. He notes Grant's power but believes Sekulić's wrestling and cardio will be decisive. He avoids the -210 favorite price on Grant.

"my worry is on a card full of favorites do i grant minus 210 there's your pie so i'm looking to avoid that one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant by first-round KO. He notes that Sekulić hasn't fought since 2018 and has been KO'd before, while Grant has power and a quick turnaround after a KO loss that wasn't devastating. He believes Grant will catch Sekulić early and finish him.

KO in first round
"i'm gonna go with dwight grants by ko in the first round"
KO (punches) R1 2:24 · UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Aug 22, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 3 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dwight Grant 1 30 of 68 44% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 3 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dwight Grant 1 30 of 68 44% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 15 of 32 46% 10 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 27 0 of 0 4 of 5
Dwight Grant 30 of 68 44% 25 of 61 2 of 2 3 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 17 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 15 of 32 46% 10 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 27 0 of 0 4 of 5
Dwight Grant 30 of 68 44% 25 of 61 2 of 2 3 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 17 of 44
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dwight Grant vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is a welterweight tilt that was put together after both fighters’ opponents withdrew on Friday, as Grant (10-2, 2-1 UFC) finds himself now facing Rodriguez (12-1, 2-0 UFC). The unexpected match will be officiated by referee Chris Tognoni, and these two strikers appear to be just glad to be fighting someone, anyone, on fight night. They do not touch gloves, as Grant wings a right hand that is just blocked in time. Grant lands hard to the lead leg, and he gets tagged with an overhand left counter. The two trade leg kicks, and when Rodriguez walks forward, “The Body Snatcher” smashes him in the face with a left and then a right hook that makes Rodriguez’ knees fall away beneath him. Grant dives after him and starts slamming him in the face with punches, and Tognoni is keeping a very close eye on things as Grant wails away on him. Rodriguez is doing just enough to survive, and after getting through the worst of it, Rodriguez forces his way up and starts swinging.
He clips Grant on the chin, and now it is Grant that is hurt and on wobbly legs. “D-Rod” keeps on him and tries to get his own finish, and Grant stumbles to the fence. Rodriguez cracks him with a vicious left and sends Grant down to the ground. Grant gets to his knees, and four more flush power shots set him back down again.
Tognoni sees that Grant may not be there anymore, and he leaps in to stop the fight. That was insane, and an instant contender for “Round of the Year!” What a fight that turned out to be on such short notice.

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Dwight Grant R1 2:24 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by second-round knockout. He was surprised by the line (-185) and thinks it's a little wide, but after watching tape, he believes Rodriguez is the more talented fighter with better durability and volume (9.5 significant strikes per minute). Sato has been rocked multiple times and knocked out before, including by Ben Saunders. Rodriguez has never been finished. Brady expects Rodriguez to land a knockout in the later rounds.

If line drops to -150/-140, might take a shot on Rodriguez
"i'm going to pick rodriguez to win here... i'm going to say second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2020 (fight day)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel Levi picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision. He notes Rodriguez has underrated boxing and high volume, while Grant is a power-punching specialist with low output and long layoffs due to shoulder surgery. Levi believes Grant needs a knockout to win, as he tends to lose rounds when he doesn't land big shots. He expects Rodriguez to outwork Grant and stay upright even if clipped.

decision
"i'ma go with rodriguez for the decision win but maybe he's a little hesitant to throw because you know he knows what's coming back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a southpaw with a great jab and power in his left hand, and he trains with Joe Schilling. He's efficient and calm under pressure. Sato has power but is more linear and hittable. Rodriguez should keep Sato at range and finish him in the second round. The under 2.5 rounds is also intriguing at -130.

Under 2.5 rounds at -130 is a good bet.
"i'm taking rodriguez to win this fight by uh let's say second round tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez (though he initially says Jared Gooden vs Dwight Grant, then corrects to Daniel Rodriguez vs Takashi Sato). He favors Rodriguez due to his superior striking volume, chin, and pace, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes Sato's lack of top competition and Rodriguez's recent win over Tim Means.

third round tko
"daniel rodriguez i believe is gonna win this fight he's got great stand up"
WIN vs Alan Jouban
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Apr 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dwight Grant 0 24 of 100 24% 25 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Alan Jouban 0 38 of 122 31% 39 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dwight Grant 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Alan Jouban 0 10 of 35 28% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dwight Grant 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Alan Jouban 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dwight Grant 0 10 of 42 23% 11 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Alan Jouban 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dwight Grant 24 of 100 24% 9 of 77 3 of 6 12 of 17 19 of 89 1 of 4 4 of 7
Alan Jouban 38 of 122 31% 13 of 88 4 of 8 21 of 26 37 of 121 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dwight Grant 5 of 31 16% 1 of 26 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 29 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alan Jouban 10 of 35 28% 5 of 28 1 of 2 4 of 5 9 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Dwight Grant 9 of 27 33% 3 of 20 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alan Jouban 13 of 37 35% 4 of 23 1 of 4 8 of 10 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dwight Grant 10 of 42 23% 5 of 31 1 of 2 4 of 9 6 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 7
Alan Jouban 15 of 50 30% 4 of 37 2 of 2 9 of 11 15 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dwight Grant 1 20 of 53 37% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Carlo Pedersoli Jr. 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dwight Grant 1 20 of 53 37% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Carlo Pedersoli Jr. 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dwight Grant 20 of 53 37% 14 of 47 2 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 6
Carlo Pedersoli Jr. 17 of 45 37% 7 of 32 9 of 11 1 of 2 14 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dwight Grant 20 of 53 37% 14 of 47 2 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 6
Carlo Pedersoli Jr. 17 of 45 37% 7 of 32 9 of 11 1 of 2 14 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Zak Ottow
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 · Dec 15, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zak Ottow 0 14 of 71 19% 22 of 82 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:53
Dwight Grant 0 25 of 84 29% 33 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zak Ottow 0 5 of 28 17% 5 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 7 of 29 24% 7 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Zak Ottow 0 3 of 27 11% 3 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Dwight Grant 0 7 of 25 28% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Zak Ottow 0 6 of 16 37% 14 of 27 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:51
Dwight Grant 0 11 of 30 36% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zak Ottow 14 of 71 19% 5 of 53 7 of 14 2 of 4 11 of 67 2 of 3 1 of 1
Dwight Grant 25 of 84 29% 15 of 71 7 of 9 3 of 4 19 of 77 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zak Ottow 5 of 28 17% 2 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 7 of 29 24% 4 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Zak Ottow 3 of 27 11% 2 of 21 0 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 7 of 25 28% 3 of 20 2 of 2 2 of 3 5 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Zak Ottow 6 of 16 37% 1 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
Dwight Grant 11 of 30 36% 8 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.

advises not to bet on this fight
"i think dwight grant is the overall better fighter so he's going to be my pick but dustin's live for a stoppage here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.

"i'm gonna take dwight grant um just stylistically it should be a winnable matchup for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.

"i'm so done with dwight grant there's no world that exists that i'm willing to pay minus 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.

underdog bet; possible submission
"i'm gonna go dustin stoltzfus for the upset and i'm actually considering uh betting him at the underdog price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.

"it's dogger pass for me i'm gonna go soul foods the guy who actually fights at 185 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.

predicts KO
"i'm going with dwight grant in the middleweight division dustin stoltzfus other than looking like tom hardy um there's no real impressive part of his career whatsoever"